Anyone familiar with my work, be it here or elsewhere, can tell you that there is no pitcher I have covered more in my time as an analyst than Matt Cain. The Giants righty has been a favorite of mine since entering the big leagues in 2005 and I have always felt somewhat sorry for the guy. See, Cain generally pitches quite well though it fails to matter due to the poor quality of the Giants team he plays for. Quite simply, they do not score runs for the guy.

In his young career, Cain has a 3.87 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, right around league average 72.0% LOB rate, K/BB above 2, opposing BA of .229, and BABIP of .276. Despite these very solid numbers his career record is a measly 26-35.

Last year, Cain allowed a maximum of two earned runs in 18 of his 32 starts, yet managed to go 5-7 with 6 no-decisions in those games. The bullpen blew five of his potential wins as well, giving him one of the, if not the, best 7-16 seasons in history. This year has been slightly better in that department: In 11 of 17 starts he has allowed a maximum of three earned runs and gone 4-1 in those games. Still, six no-decisions in games of that quality is a bit high.

In 2005, of all starting pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched, his 2.53 RS/9 (run support per nine innings) was the lowest in both the NL and MLB. In 2006 it evened out a bit, to the tune of 5.10 RS/9, right around the middle of the pack. Last year, his 3.51 RS/9 was again the worst in the NL and MLB. And this year, his 4.10 RS/9 ranks the 11th lowest in the NL. All told, over the last three calendary years, Cain has received 4.10 runs of support per nine innings pitched, the lowest of anyone.

Second place in that span? Why, Ian Snell of the Pirates… at 4.56 RS/9. Cain has received just about a half-run per nine innings less of support than his closest “competitor.” The average run support for pitchers qualifying for inclusion was 5.01, meaning Cain is supported almost a full run less per nine innings than the average starting pitcher in this span. And, with the Giants seemingly having no idea what they are doing from an offensive standpoint, there is very little to suggest something like this could drastically change. By the time Cain can hit the free agent market he could be a heavily coveted pitcher with a career W-L to date around 20-30 games under .500.

Continuing on in the week long series on the 50 most valuable assets in major league baseball. If you missed the introduction, it can be found here.

Ranking, Player, Position, Franchise, 2006-2008 WPA/LI
35. Lance Berkman, 1B, Houston, 13.93 WPA/LI
34. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, San Diego, 6.91 WPA/LI
33. Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas, 2.03 WPA/LI
32. Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles, -0.13 WPA/LI
31. Joba Chamberlain, RHP, New York Yankees, 1.93 WPA/LI

Just to make sure that no one thought his .896 OPS last year was the beginning of a decline, Berkman has gone on a super human tear in 2008, posting the best half year of his life and putting himself firmly in the race for NL MVP. A power hitter who also controls the strike zone, Berkman is Pujols-lite, and his glove work at first base is a lot better than it was in the outfield. He gave the Astros a home town discount when they re-signed him, and considering how reasonable his contract is for a player of his abilities, he’d be one of the most coveted hitters on the market if Houston ever made him available. Which they won’t.

Gonzalez has established himself as a real star by doing the impossible – posting a .500+ SLG% while playing half his game in Petco Park for three consecutive years. If he played in any other park in baseball, the world would know Gonzalez as one of the game’s best hitters, but his environment and the Padres relative anonymity have kept him flying below the radar. However, at age 26, Gonzalez has become a real offensive force and also one of the game’s best defensive first baseman. He’s signed through 2010, but I’m betting that San Diego will pick up the $5.5 million option they have for 2011 as well.

Kinsler is known for his power, but did you know he’s got 54 career stolen bases while only being caught 7 times? He has a chance to go 30-30 this year, and while his home park certainly helps him, he’d be a good player on any field in America. He’s not as good as he’s hitting right now, but he doesn’t have to keep up this level of performance to establish himself as an all-star. The Rangers decision to lock him up through 2013 looks like a very good one.

Kershaw is one of the better young left-handed starting pitching prospects we’ve seen in years. He’s often compared to Scott Kazmir, though it’s quite possible that Kershaw could be even better. At just 20-years-old, he’s showing that he’s not quite ready to carry a rotation yet (his command, in particular, needs some work), but the talent is obvious, and the ceiling with this kid is very, very high.

How much do I really need to write about Joba? If you’ve been alive for the last year, you know the deal – top prospect becomes dominant reliever, steals the hearts and minds of New York, and is now making the transition back to the starting rotation. Despite some normal bumps in the road while getting stretched out, his recent starts have shown why the Yankees want him on the hill every five days instead of keeping him in the bullpen. His stuff is still top shelf, and his ability to miss bats and throw strikes give him the chance to be an elite starting pitcher. That’s just simply more valuable than any reliever, and the Yankees made the right choice.

Depth is always a good thing. But it can also be frustrating. Such is the case with the Milwaukee Brewers and top offensive prospects Matt LaPorta and Mat Gamel. LaPorta is a first baseman (a DH, really) playing left field. Gamel is a left fielder playing third base.

Movin’ on Up (2008 Double-A stats):

Matt LaPorta  .290/.403/.584 | 19 HR | 63 RBI | 42 BB-60 K
Mat Gamel     .383/.445/.639 | 15 HR | 72 RBI | 38 BB-60 K

Holdin’ Down the Fort (2008 MLB stats):

Prince Fielder .272/.360/.487 | 16 HR | 43 RBI | 39 BB-61 K
Ryan Braun     .282/.317/.544 | 20 HR | 58 RBI | 16 BB-70 K
Bill Hall      .212/.275/.386 | 10 HR | 28 RBI | 18 BB-67 K

LaPorta was selected in the first round (seventh overall) of the 2007 draft out of the University of Florida as a senior, which surprised many because he was blocked at the Major League level by young, talented first baseman Prince Fielder. The Brewers immediately announced the organization’s intention to relocate LaPorta to the outfield. The move was met with skepticism given the lumbering man’s lack of athleticism but he has not embarrassed himself in the field (nor is he an average fielder, though) and he has torn the cover off the ball. In his pro career, he is hitting .300/.398/.643.

Gamel was snagged in the fourth round of the 2005 draft out of Chipola Junior College, ironically in the same draft that saw the club take Ryan Braun (originally a road block at third base, now in left field) fifth overall out of the University of Miami. Gamel was a pretty good value, costing the Brewers $2,224,000 less than Braun. He, like LaPorta, has done nothing but hit in the majors and currently sports a career line of .311/.381/.504. Gamel does not possess as much power as LaPorta, who could be a 40-homer guy, but the former juco player is a threat to hit .300, while LaPorta should be more around the .270-.280 area in the Major Leagues.

If both these players were in different organizations, they may very well have already made it to the major leagues. Bill Hall (.917 fielding percentage) certainly is not keeping Gamel or LaPorta in the minors, so it is clear Milwaukee does not see Gamel as the answer at third base. But neither player is going to move Braun out of left field. However, Fielder’s contract grumblings, offensive “struggles” and physique may make him expendable sooner rather than later. But even that solves only half of the problem.

Happy Canada Day to my fellow Canadians.

Prior to the season’s commencement, many analysts for whatever reason pegged the Tigers capable of scoring 1,000 runs this season. Whether these “projections” were born out of reality or more along the lines of superlatives to express how potent the offense could be, everyone expected them to succeed this season. Suffice it to say, on June 6th, when they sat at 24-36, twelve games under .500, and nowhere near the pace for 1,000 runs, bedlam worthy of Gotham City began to ensue in the minds of the Detroit faithful.

Since that day the Tigers have gone 18-4, improving their record to 42-40. While nothing spectacular it is still good enough for just five games out of first place. In lieu of their more extended recent winning ways I wanted to take a look at the major contributors. In terms of WPA, Placido Polanco, Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, and Curtis Granderson all rank in the top 25 over the last fourteen days, ranging from 0.42 to 0.54 wins. Substitute Cabrera for Clete Thomas, with the other three in tact, and the group of four also ranks in the context-neutral top 35 in this same span.

Since June 6, here are some of the numbers for their offensive components:

Marcus Thames: .313/.362/.813, 1.175 OPS, 10 HR in 64 AB
Curtis Granderson: .423/.458/.628, 1.086 OPS, 4 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR
Placido Polanco: .427/.437/.537, .974 OPS
Clete Thomas: .450/.542/.650 in first career 24 PA
Miguel Cabrera: .306/.344/.482, .826 OPS, 6 2B, 3 HR
Gary Sheffield: .286/.310/.536, .846 OPS, 2 HR in 7 g returning from DL

The numbers of Cabrera and Sheffield may not seem as “special” relative to what was expected of them but the results since June 6 have been better than their overall numbers; for Sheffield, much better. What about the starting rotation? Jeremy Bonderman will miss the season but what are the other four main starters doing during this torrid stretch of play?

Armando Galarraga: 5 GS, 29.1 IP, 6 BB, 20 K, 2.76 ERA, 52 Game Score
Kenny Rogers: 5 GS, 33.1 IP, 9 BB, 10 K, 2.70 ERA, 54 Game Score
Justin Verlander: 5 GS, 33.0 IP, 14 BB, 34 K, 2.73 ERA, 61 Game Score
Nate Robertson: 4 GS, 24.2 IP, 6 BB, 17 K, 2.92 ERA, 52 Game Score

These four, whose combined W-L in this span is 10-2, range from 2.70-2.92 in ERA and 52-61 in Game Score average. Add in Eddie Bonine’s two most recent outings and the Tigers staff seems to be clicking on all cylinders. This team is not going to score 1,000 runs, and they are not going to sustain an .818 winning percentage the rest of the season, but they are not as bad as they looked early on. They struggled out of the gate and underachieved, and are now overachieving to make up for it. I guess it’s true that, for an AL team, there isn’t anything better to cure some performance ailments than facing the teams on the senior circuit.

And, while the White Sox are still playing well, how many non-Detroit and non-Chicago fans are starting to think—despite being potentially afraid to admit it—that the Tigers, 24-36 on June 6, could realistically win this division?

Continuing on in the week long series on the 50 most valuable assets in major league baseball. If you missed the introduction, it can be found here.

Ranking, Player, Position, Franchise, 2006-2008 WPA/LI
40. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York, 10.06 WPA/LI
39. John Lackey, RHP, Anaheim, 7.48 WPA/LI
38. Dan Uggla, 2B, Florida, 4.01 WPA/LI
37. Edinson Volquez, RHP, Cincinnati, 1.18 WPA/LI
36. Curtis Granderson, CF, Detroit, 4.14 WPA/LI

There wasn’t a harder player on this list to place than A-Rod. On talent, he’s still top ten, even at age 32. He’s one of the greatest players of all time, and he would be a first ballot Hall of Famer if he never played another day in his life. However, that contract he just signed with New York last winter – no other team in baseball even came calling when they had a shot to acquire him without giving up any talent, and at the price he’ll now command through 2017, there are a lot of teams that wouldn’t claim him even if he were placed on waivers. However, for those few teams that would be willing to take on that deal, he’s remarkably valuable, and we can’t overlook that he’s still among the league’s absolute best.

I talked about Lackey last week, and really, if he wasn’t a free agent after 2009, he’d rank quite a bit higher. He’s very good, very durable, and a bargain for the next year and a half. He’s going to get a huge paycheck whenever he signs his next extension, though, so his window as a significant financial asset is closing rapidly. Teams looking for an ace to make a run the next two years would pay a lot for Lackey, but his value is on the way down, and he almost certainly won’t be on this list next year.

Uggla probably swings the bat harder than anyone else alive, and he’s taken that grip-it-and-rip-it approach and turned it into the home run lead in the National League. The former Rule 5 pick has established that his power is for real, and since he makes just a bit more than nada, the Marlins are able to build a potent offense around players like him while keeping a shoestring payroll. However, for those who will argue that his ’08 performance means that he should be higher up on this list, Uggla comes with some deficiencies, especially on the defensive end. He’s bad enough with the glove that his real position is probably third base, and the bat is a little less special over there than it is at an up the middle spot. He’s also 28 – not the spring chicken that you might expect for a guy in his third league.

Barring a second half collapse, Volquez is going to run away with the breakthrough performance of 2008. No, he’s not this good, but his stuff has always been there and the performance is built on sustainable skills. He isn’t second in the league in strikeouts by accident – his combination of velocity and movement is good for generating swings and misses, and he’s getting a ton of ground balls even when hitters do make contact. The command is a real problem, and he’s going to have to throw more strikes, but if the Reds put him on the trade market right now, Walt Jocketty’s phone wouldn’t stop ringing.

Granderson busted through a year ago, posting a ridiculously awesome season to raise his status from good player to top notch center fielder. He’s not quite as good as he was last year, but as a good center fielder with legitimate power and speed, he’s a legitimate two way weapon for the Tigers. They were smart enough to lock him up long term for a piddly $30 million through his prime years, and will be reaping the rewards of his goodness through 2012 at least.