As the separation begins between contenders and pretenders, fans and organizations alike begin to look toward the upcoming off-season, planning for what the winter might bring and which free agents might be worth pursuing. This year, of course, the big names are C.C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets, and Mark Teixeira, and it’s almost certain that they’ll command the three biggest paychecks when they sign.

However, there’s one free agent-to-be that generally doesn’t get included in the discussion of impact talents, but depending on how the bidding goes, could be the bargain of the winter. That player is Orlando Hudson.

Playing in the same league as Chase Utley and Dan Uggla has forced Hudson into a pretty large shadow, but that shouldn’t keep us from recognizing how valuable a player he is. His offensive production has been remarkably consistent since joining the D’Backs, as he’s posted seasonal OPS marks of .809, .817, and .822. The skillset has remained essentially unchaged, and at age 30, he hasn’t shown any signs of decline. With Hudson, you get a known quantity.

If we frame the conversation in terms of win values, we can break Hudson down as follows.

Offense: +0 to +5 runs above average hitter
Defense: +5 to +15 runs above average second baseman
Position Adjustment: +5 runs for playing second base

Add it all up, and you a player who is anywhere from 10 to 25 runs above an average major league player, depending on how good you think he is with the glove. Using the 10 runs per win formula, that makes Hudson worth +1 to +2.5 wins above average. Replacement level is about two wins below average, so Hudson’s somewhere between +3.0 and +4.5 wins above replacement.

Major league teams are paying almost $5 million per win on the free market, so using this analysis, we’d expect Hudson to sign for something between $15 million and $22.5 million per season. Now, when you think of Orlando Hudson’s impending free agency, are you thinking he’s going to get anywhere close to that? I’m guessing no.

Since he’s flown somewhat under the radar in Toronto and Arizona, he doesn’t possess the skills that teams usually overpay for in free agency, and the main point of his value is the thing that teams are worst at valuing, I’d expect Hudson to get a contract more along the lines of $11 to $14 million per season – my guess would be 5 years, $60-$65 million.

For Gary Matthews Jr money, you could acquire a guy who is arguably every bit as valuable as Teixeira. He might not be an ace or a middle-of-the-lineup slugger, but when it comes to guys who can add wins to a contending team in a hurry, Hudson might just be the guy to get this off-season.

The Chicago Cubs managed to acquire one of the top pitchers in the game (when healthy) in Rich Harden and also received sleeper Chad Gaudin in this week’s trade with the Oakland Athletics. Impressively, the Cubs organization did not part with any of its “top” prospects, including third baseman Josh Vitters and pitcher Jose Ceda.

Vitters began the season in April in Low A-ball but struggled and ended up on the disabled list. He resurfaced in June in the short-season Northwest League and has played exceptionally well, although most 2007 first round prep players are currently in full-season ball. He is currently hitting .329/.385/.512 in 82 at-bats with with two homers and 14 RBI. Vitters was drafted third overall in the 2007 draft out of high school.

Ceda was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2004. The 21-year-old is currently pitching in Double-A after beginning the year in High-A ball. He was recently moved to the bullpen and has allowed nine hits and three walks (2.25 BB/9) in 12 innings. Ceda has struck out 18 (13.50 K/9). His fastball can tease triple digits and his slider is a strikeout pitch.

The club also did not part with a couple of fringe Top 10 organizational prospects in Jeff Samardzija and Tyler Colvin. Both players were highly drafted and handed handsome sums of money to sign with the Cubs, but neither player has put up eye-catching numbers in the minor league system. The organization still touts the players amongst its best, but the truth is that few other organizations feel the same way.

Samardzija was given a five-year, $10 million contract in 2006 as a fifth round pick to lure him away from playing pro football. The results on the mound have been mixed. His numbers have never matched his mid-90s fastball and, although he was recently promoted to Triple-A, his Double-A numbers were troubling. In 76 innings at the lower level, Samardzija allowed just 71 hits but he walked 42 (4.97 BB/9) and struck out just 44 (5.21 K/9). His rates have been slightly better in Triple-A but with only four starts it is a small sample size. Samardzija would probably be best suited to a bullpen role.

Colvin was the shock of the 2006 draft’s first round when the Cubs selected him 13th overall. The athletic outfielder has been hurt in his pro career by a base-on-balls phobia. He is currently playing in Double-A and hitting .241/.306/.384 in 352 at-bats. Colvin has seven homers and 46 RBI. He has walked more this season in the past with 32 (8.4 percent), to go along with 71 strikeouts (20.5 percent). Last season he managed to walk only about three percent of the time. Right now he projects as a fourth outfielder at best.

So while the Cubs managed to hold on to many of the organization’s top prospects, the future “stars” of the organization still have a lot of question that need answering before they can become the next Geovany Soto.

When the Dodgers hired Joe Torre this offseason they envisioned a manager whose calm demeanor could offer stability to a rumored dissentious clubhouse. Regardless of whether or not this worked, the team was 14-13 through the first month and sat five games over .500 at 19-14 on May 6th. Unfortunately, that May 6th victory came without shortstop Rafael Furcal who had been, by all accounts, their best player to date. I discussed Furcal’s numbers both here and at Baseball Prospectus as he got off to an absolutely scorching start.

When he went down with injury, here is what the Dodgers lost:

154 PA, 49-134, 12 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 11.2 K%, .366/.448/.597, 1.045 OPS

The injury quickly worsened and, following a few more setbacks, it appears that Furcal will miss the rest of the season. Now, losing a player to injury is generally only as bad as the performance level(s) of those replacing him; think Lou Gehrig for Wally Pipp, or, in football, Brady for Bledsoe. Unfortunately for Dodgers fans the inverse has happened with Furcal.

Since he went down the others occupying his position have produced the following:

218 PA, 33-199, 6 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 19.1 K%, .166/.317/.231, .548 OPS

Looking at most of these numbers it seems that his replacements have combined to produce at around half his level. Filling in the majority of the time has been the triumvirate of Chin-Lung Hu, Luis Maza, and Angel Berroa. More recently it has been Nomar Garciaparra, a former all-star shortstop, though the jury is still out on whether he can come anywhere near Furcal’s early season production. Granted, Furcal wasn’t very likely to sustain those numbers all season—a .386 BABIP compared to his career rate a bit over .300 entering this year—but that isn’t to say his performance would regress to the poor numbers above.

With the trade deadline fast approaching it might be wise for the Colletti gang to look into a serious upgrade at shortstop—barring an offensive surge from Nomar—considering they are currently only one game behind the first place Diamondbacks despite a record two games under .500.

Last night, Howie Kendrick hit his first pair of home runs of the season, getting himself past the 170 at-bat mark before clearing the fence with a long ball. However, he’s slugging .494 – not a common mark for a guy who hit hadn’t gone yard until July 10th. This kind of abnormality in performance is pretty much the norm for Kendrick, though, as he continues to establish himself as the biggest enigma in baseball.

His approach at the plate is to swing at absolutely everything. He’s taken a cut at 53.76% of all pitches thrown this year, including 37.54% of pitches out of the strike zone. Not surprisingly, this hyper aggressive attack makes him a player who just never walks. His BB% is just 1.7% – only Yuniesky Betancourt takes the free pass less often, but his aggressiveness is born out of confidence that he can make contact. Kendrick swings at everything while striking out 16.9% of the time, giving him a remarkable 0.10 BB/K rate on the season, just slightly worse than his 0.16 career mark.

That kind of mark puts him in the company of noted hackers such as Ivan Rodriguez and Jose Guillen. Of course, Guillen’s earned his money with his power, and Pudge is noted most for his skills behind the plate, not at it. Kendrick has power (23 of his 58 hits have gone for extra bases), but it’s completely different than Guillen’s – he racks up the doubles but has just 11 career long balls.

So, in total, we have a guy who doesn’t walk, isn’t an extraordinary contact hitter, and doesn’t hit home runs, but continues to produce offensive value through sheer quantity of singles and doubles. His skill set just isn’t something we see very often, and while it’s almost certain that he can’t sustain the .399 BABIP he’s run over the last year, Kendrick’s unique enough that trying to use historical comparisons is next to impossible.

For the sake of baseball, we should all hope he figures out how to stay healthy, because the game needs more interesting players like Kendrick.

Adam Dunn of the Reds is not too complicated of a player to figure out: he walks a lot, strikes out a lot, and hits home runs. In his eighth big league season Dunn has a career walk rate of 17%, a career strikeout rate of 32.7%, and hits a home run about once every 14 at bats. In fact, from 2004 until yesterday, Dunn’s 189 home runs ranks first in the National League and third overall to Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz. His 504 walks ranks first regardless of league as do his 816 strikeouts; in fact, second place in punchouts is Jason Bay with 639, about 180 behind. For anyone confused, Ryan Howard ranks third in this category primarily because he wasn’t a full-time regular in 2004-05.

This year has been essentially the same for Dunn as he finds himself atop the leaderboard in walks and in the top five in both strikeouts and home runs. Still, one major difference is his current .227 batting average. Though I am strongly against using batting average as any type of end-all evaluative barometer, his low percentage of hits in at bats has prevented his already high OBP and SLG from vastly increasing.

His BABIP, which over the course of his career comes out to .291, currently rests at just .248. The only other season in which he posted a sub-.250 BABIP was in 2003, when he still walked, struck out, and homered quite a bit but managed to produce a .215/.354/.465 slash line. While that season resulted in an .819 OPS his OBP and SLG have combined to provide a .902 OPS as of right now.

This got me thinking how many people have posted sub-.230 batting averages while simultaneously producing OPS counts of .900 or higher. Querying for all players satisfying these parameters while amassing 400 or more plate appearances, I found… nobody. I couldn’t find any player that has ever hit .230 or lower with an OPS .900 or higher. Though it isn’t likely Dunn will finish the season with a batting average that low, especially when considering his BABIP has been much higher in the near past, if he does he will end up literally in a league of his own.

Since .900 is a high OPS for years past I modified the search to give me anyone with a sub-.230 batting average and OPS+ of 130 or higher—based on Dunn’s current number—while totaling at least 400 plate appearances. This produced three results, yet all belonged to the same player: Gene Tenace. In 1974, Tenace had a .211 BA/130 OPS+; in 1978, a .224 BA/134 OPS+; and in 1980, a .222 BA/137 OPS+.

Again modifying the search to include those with sub-.230 BAs and an OBP of at least .380, four results and three names surfaced; Tenace in both 1978 and 1980, Wes Westrum’s 1951 season of .219 BA/.400 OBP, and Ray Cullenbine’s 1947 season of .224 BA/.401 OBP.

Just Tenace’s 1978 season and Cullenbine’s 1947 season achieved this “feat” with at least 500 PAs, and only Cullenbine did so with 600+ PAs. Essentially, assuming Dunn doesn’t get hurt, it is very unlikely this BA/OBP or BA/OPS+ combo will continue. Based on his past BABIP results compared to this year it is more likely the BA will increase, in turn meaning his OBP and SLG will look even gaudier. I’m not sure if teams are in serious, serious discussions regarding his services or not, but they should be… even if he isn’t really passionate about the game.

The recent trade between the Oakland Athletics and the Chicago Cubs was interesting to say the least. Firstly, it came out of nowhere. Secondly, the haul for Major League pitchers Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin was far less than I would have expected the Athletics to receive, given the value of pitching in today’s game.

I won’t dwell on new A’s starter Sean Gallagher too much, since David wrote a nice piece on him yesterday. But I will say that he is definitely the key piece of the trade and should fit into the rotation immediately.

Eric Patterson is the brother of Cincinnati Reds outfield Corey Patterson. Eric is not a very good defensive player and he has already moved from second base to the outfield. His poor arm strength pretty much limits him to left field, first base or some second base, which hurts his value as a utility player. In nine left field games this season for Chicago, Eric made three errors. He was originally drafted in the eighth round of the 2004 draft after playing college ball at Georgia Tech.

Matt Murton has proven that he is a major league hitter but he has been buried at Triple-A in the Cubs organization despite a .294/.362/.448 line in 308 games over four seasons. He does not have a ton of power so he is best suited to a fourth outfielder or platoon role. Murton is a corner outfielder with average abilities in the field. He was the first round pick of the Boston Red Sox in 2003 and, like Eric Patterson, played at Georgia Tech.

Catcher Josh Donaldson has spent the season struggling at A-ball in the Midwest League. He is currently hitting .223/.282/.358 in 229 at-bats. It’s unfortunate because Donaldson, who was moved behind the plate at Auburn University, was supposed to have a much better bat than glove. He did hit .335/.460/.590 in 173 at-bats during his debut in Short Season ball in 2007. Defensively, he has made seven errors this season in 51 games behind the dish and has six passed balls. He has thrown out 27 of 71 (38 percent) runners attempting to steal a base. He was drafted 48th overall in the supplemental first round of the 2007 draft.

In all, the Athletics received a promising starting pitcher, two bench players and a catcher who may stick behind the plate and may hit enough to play in the majors… for two proven Major League pitchers who can both work out of the starting rotation. Patterson and Murton probably take the roster spots from Wes Bankston and Rajai Davis, offering modest upgrades. Donaldson addresses an organizational weakness at the catching position. Most of the pressure remains on Gallagher… especially if Harden stays healthy for any significant amount of time.

Also, keep an eye on Gaudin if he gets the opportunity to start in the National League. He could thrive there.

Just like he did this past offseason, Billy Beane recently traded one of his top pitchers for a bevy of prospects. Dave and Marc have done a great job profiling this Rich Harden deal and the pool of talent heading to Oakland. Earlier in the season, when discussing the Dan Haren move, I noted how Dana Eveland and Gregory Smith, just one third of the return from Arizona, were performing quite well. At that time, which was after the month of April had been completed, Eveland had a 1.86 K/BB and 1.34 WHIP while Smith had a 1.91 K/BB and 1.09 WHIP.

At that point in time both players were outdoing their FIP via ERA and, while their K/BB totals have taken somewhat substantial hits since my last look, they have continued to “beat” their controllable outcomes. For the season, here are their numbers:

Gregory Smith: 17 GS, 3.62 ERA, 4.24 FIP, 1.57 K/BB, 1.27 WHIP, 74.4% LOB
Dana Eveland: 18 GS, 3.50 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 1.35 K/BB, 1.38 WHIP, 75.3% LOB

Now, over the last thirty days they have both posted great ERAs, but are way out in front of what their FIP would suggest, which is higher primarily due to their ultra-low strikeout to walk ratios. Neither are punchout machines, but they have the 2nd and 4th lowest ratio in the last thirty days. For the season, Eveland has the third lowest in the AL while Smith joins him in the top ten at spot number eight. Here are their numbers in these parameters:

Gregory Smith: 3.34 ERA, 5.15 FIP, 4.85 K/9, 5.76 BB/9, 0.84 K/BB, 81.5% LOB
Dana Eveland: 2.89 ERA, 4.01 FIP, 4.58 K/9, 4.34 BB/9, 1.06 K/BB, 80.9% LOB

Combining for 1.22 WPA wins in this span, Smith and Eveland have found ways to produce arguably better results recently despite the triumvirate of less strikeouts, more walks, and more runners on base. The Athletics rotation currently has a 3.47 ERA and .238 BAA, both tops in the AL. They have struck out the sixth most amount of batters while simultaneously walking the fifth most; this places them 10th out of 14 teams in terms of K/BB ratio. With three pitchers in the top twelve (Smith, Eveland, Joe Blanton) this does not really come as a surprise.

It will be very interesting to see what happens to this rotation sans Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin but, for the sake of having much confidence moving forward, Smith and Eveland should be working towards improving their controllable outcomes; that way their success could be defined by skills and not potentially luck.

With the trade deadline just a few weeks away and the C.C. Sabathia and Rich Harden moves thrusting the spotlight back on the veterans-for-young-players deals, one name comes up time and time again in regards to the Los Angeles Dodgers – Matt Kemp. Loved by some and loathed by others, the divide between those two camps on Kemp’s value is astronomical. So, which polarizing position is closer to the truth? Is Kemp an all-star slugger in the making, or is he simply a guy who coasts by on natural ability and will never live up to his potential?

Most Dodger fans online are firmly in the first camp. Despite not being given regular playing time and having to force his way into the line-up, Kemp hit .342/.373/.521 as a 22-year-old last year, cementing his status as one of the Dodgers best hitters in the ’07 campaign. However, that .894 OPS was built on a house of cards – a remarkable .417 batting average on balls in play that was in no way repeatable. Even though BABIP for hitters is indeed influenced by skill, and they do have control over whether their balls in play become hits or not, there are still upper and lower bounds on what is actually skill and what is noise. Even the very best BABIP-skill guys post numbers in the .350 to .360 range over significant samples, so it was pretty obvious that Kemp wasn’t going to be able to sustain that performance.

Indeed, his BABIP has fallen to a still-high .380, and thanks to a simultaneous increase in strikeouts, his overall performance has taken a pretty big step back. In fact, Kemp’s contact rate has become a real problem, as he’s now posting a 30.4% K%. Among hitters who have a K% of 30% or higher, he’s the only one who doesn’t walk at least 10% of the time and he has the lowest Isolated Slugging Percentage of the group as well, coming in at .149.

Striking out a lot is okay if you also draw a bunch of walks and hit for power, but Kemp isn’t off-setting the swings and misses with enough positives, and as such, he’s a below average major league hitter right now. Considering he turns 24 in a few months and doesn’t offer much in the way of defensive value, that’s something of a problem.

Despite his physique, Kemp’s power remains more of the doubles variety, and his aggressive approach at the plate only works if he makes up for all the bad swings with long drives that fly over the wall. The “he’s young” thing only works for so long, and Kemp is rapidly getting to the point where he needs to produce at the plate, because when he’s a below average hitter, he’s not helping anyone win baseball games.

This isn’t to say the Dodgers should dump him the first chance they get, but if LA does trade Kemp in the next few weeks, beware the narrative that they’re giving up a young star. They’re giving up a guy with potential, but the jury is definitely still out on whether he’s going to fulfill it or not.

The Florida Marlins, thought of as very unlikely to compete at any point this season, currently sit in a second-place tie in the so-far-disappointing National League East. They are a team built almost entirely on offense and, because of this, are even less likely to replicate their relative success over the season’s remainder. Because nobody talks about their pitching, and rightly so because those talks might not be so nice, Ricky Nolasco has pitched quite well and deserves some kudos.

In 19 games, two of which were relief appearances, he has posted the following numbers:

3.74 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 110.2 IP, 104 H, 29 BB, 82 K
2.83 K/BB, 1.20 WHIP, .279 BABIP, 74.4% LOB

The statistics above have helped result in a 0.45 WPA, tops amongst starters on the team. Scott Olsen is close behind him at 0.35, but while these two have some similarities in their overall results, there are also some noticeable differences, mainly in their controllable skills:

Ricky Nolasco: 3.74 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 110.2 IP, 2.83 K/BB, 1.20 WHIP
Scott Olsen: 3.96 ERA, 5.01 FIP, 111.1 IP, 1.49 K/BB, 1.30 WHIP

Over the last thirty days, Nolasco has made six starts, giving up just 31 hits and 4 walks in 44.2 innings, striking out 42 in the process. His 0.78 WHIP ranks second and, while the average HR/FB is around 10-11%, Nolasco has sliced his in half to the tune of 5.8%. Though his K/9 of 8.46 in this span ranks 21st, his ridiculously low 0.81 BB/9 helps result in a first place 10.50 K/BB.

Something struck me as particularly interesting with regards to his pitch data: from last year to now he is throwing harder across the board. His fastball has increased from 89 mph to 91.2 mph; his slider from 79.8 mph to 83.6 mph; his curveball has risen from 72.5 mph to 75.6 mph, and his changeup, though used just 2.4% of the time compared to last year’s 9.1%, has increased velocity from 78.5 mph to 82.3 mph.

Ricky has been pitching very much under the radar primarily due to the Marlins’ pitching woes serving as a generalization for the entire team and their propensity for offense. Nolasco is not a Cy Young Award contender—though now that I think about it his W-L record could convince voters he may be—but he has been a nice little diamond in the rough to date.

A couple weeks ago Retrosheet released its 1999 dataset, and now it’s available in the FanGraphs variety.

We now have full win probability statistics for 1974 – 2008.