On Day 1 of the 2007 MLB Amateur Draft, people (myself included) kept harping on the Minnesota Twins’ overdraft of a Kentucky high school by the name of Ben Revere. Well, the diminutive outfielder (5-9, 165) is obviously out to make a lot of people look silly.

His onslaught began in his pro debut when he hit .325/.388/.461 in 191 Rookie Ball at-bats. Revere slugged 10 triples and kept his strikeout rate down at a respectable 10.5 percent, while walking 6.4 percent. He also stole 21 of 30 bases.

Revere had a late start to 2008, but he has been on fire since joining Beloit at the end of April. He is currently hitting .403/.457/.548 with 13 doubles and eight triples in 221 at-bats. Revere has walked just 18 times (less than eight percent), but he has kept his strikeouts down to about 10 percent. He has stolen 26 bases in 37 attempts.

Here is the bad news. Revere is probably not going to keep channeling Kirby Puckett and the slugging percentage is going to take a hit as he moves up the ladder – power is just not his game. He is also not going to hit .400 this season. His BABIP is currently astronomical at .440 and he has a line drive rate of 16 percent.

Regardless, Revere is gaining well-deserved attention and could be in Minnesota quicker than anyone projected – perhaps as soon as late 2010 – if his lack of patience does not hurt him at Double-A and above.

Back at the end of April, Dave posted his First Month Heroes, a position by position look at the highest WPA/LIs through one month of play. In the comments section I had joked that it would be even more interesting to see the inverse, or the worst context-neutral performers in the same span. My wish became Dave’s command and the following players surfaced: Josh Bard, Adam LaRoche, Robinson Cano, Ryan Zimmerman, Troy Tulowitzki, Garret Anderson, Andruw Jones, Jose Guillen.

Two full months later I thought it again to be prudent to check on these low-level offensive performers. So, as of July 8, the worst WPA/LIs by position are:

C: Kurt Suzuki, OAK, -0.84
1B: Daric Barton, OAK, -1.33
2B: Freddy Sanchez, PIT, -2.56
3B: Melvin Mora, BAL, -1.15
SS: Jason Bartlett, TB, -1.71
LF: Emil Brown, OAK -1.20
CF: Michael Bourn, HOU, -1.67
RF: Jeff Francoeur, ATL, -1.31
SP: Bronson Arroyo, CIN, -1.94
RP: Brad Hennessey, SF, -1.26

Yes, Frenchy was demoted to the minors, and yes, it took me three attempts at spelling his name correctly, but he has been the least productive rightfielder on offense. After him it gets a little hazy since certain guys who may be classified as rightfielders played different positions (SEE: Gary Matthews, Jr, and Mark Teahen).

One interesting part of this group is that their WPAs, which could benefit from some game state bias, are not all the lowest at their position. In fact, the only players listed above with both the lowest WPA/LI and WPA are Suzuki, Barton, and Frenchy. Sanchez, Bartlett, and Brown have the 4th worst WPA at their respective positions; Bourn has the second worst; and Mora actually ranks at the halfway point in WPA terms.

The other aspect of this group that piqued my interest is that three Oakland Athletics position players are, as of this moment, the worst win-contributors at their respective positions. In terms of WPA, not WPA/LI, the most productive offensive total is the 0.80 of Eric Chavez. Overall, though, their offense has cost them six wins; thankfully their starting rotation and bullpen have combined to the tune of ten added wins. Perhaps this is why some As fans were calling for offense in return for Harden. Regardless, I’ll be very curious to revisit this closer to the end of the season not only to see how these players improve or digress, but whether or not any of them remain.

When the A’s decided yesterday to trade Rich Harden to the Cubs for a package of players that lacks a guy that you could point to as a potential star, they knew they were giving up one of the most talented arms in baseball. When Harden’s been healthy, he’s been lights out, blowing opposing hitters away and reminding the world that he’s still a force to occasionally be reckoned with.

Most of the reactions that I’ve seen so far are along the lines of “that’s it?”, expressing disappointment that the A’s dealt Harden away for what most see as a group of guys with limited upside. However, I think this deal makes a lot of sense for an A’s team that wants to continue to win in the near future while also solidifying their long term ability to compete. To show what I mean, let’s take a look at projections for Harden and Sean Gallagher going forward.

Based on his performance when healthy, and his numerous issues that have led to extended time on the DL, most of the preseason projection systems had Harden tabbed for between 50 to 100 innings pitched and a FIP of between 3.15 and 3.99. He’s already been able to throw 77 innings with a 2.70 FIP this year (even though a good part of that is an unsustainably low HR/FB rate), so if we add this new information to what we knew heading into 2008, we’d probably project Harden going forward as something like a guy who will throw 100 IP per season with a 3.25 FIP. That makes him one of the league’s best pitchers for about half a season, which sounds about right.

We knew a bit less about Gallagher, since the projections had to be built with the help of minor league data and a small sample of major league performance, but ZIPS and CHONE pegged him for a FIP between 4.9 and 5.1 over 120-140 innings while being unsure which role the Cubs would use him in. In 12 appearances this year (10 starts), he’s thrown 58 innings and posted a 3.98 FIP, so again, adding that new information and adjusting for the switch from the AL to the NL, we’d probably project Gallagher in Oakland for something like 180 innings a year with a FIP around 5.00.

Harden is obviously the better pitcher, but we have to account for the difference in durability as well, so let’s add Harden’s theoretical replacement into the equation. The A’s are one of the best organizations in baseball at finding spare parts to put up solid performances in their rotation (their defense and home park don’t hurt), so let’s assume that Amalgamation Of Harden Replacements will make up the 80 inning difference by posting a 5.50 FIP, a tick or two above league wide replacement level.

That brings the combined totals for Harden + Harden Replacements to 180 innings with a 4.25 FIP, compared to the 180 innings we were projecting from Gallagher at a 5.00 FIP. That’s a difference of three-fourths of a run per nine innings, which while significant, adds up to a grand total of about 15 runs over the course of an entire season.

Fifteen runs, or roughly 1.5 wins – that’s the entirety of downgrading from Rich Harden to Sean Gallagher, based on the assumptions I made above. If you don’t like the numbers I used, feel free to plug in your own, but unless you’re very bullish on Harden’s health, you’re going to come to the conclusion that the swap will cost the A’s at most two or three wins between now and the end of 2009, when Harden’s contract expires.

For giving up those two to three wins in the next year and a half, the A’s receive club control over Gallagher from 2010 to 2013 (his ’08-’09 years are already counted above), control over Murton from 2008 to 2011, control over Patterson from 2008 to 2014, a potentially useful prospect in Josh Donaldson, and they save approximately $8 million in salary.

The A’s sold two to three wins for four years of a guy who projects out as a league average pitcher, three years of a useful platoon outfielder, six years of a potentially useful utility player, a young catching prospect, and $8 million in cash. And they’re getting killed for it?

If Beane spends the $8 million he saved on a free agent this winter, he’ll be able to buy back at least one of the wins he surrendered in this deal, and probably closer to two, erasing almost the entire difference between Harden and Gallagher just with the financial savings. Even if Murton, Patterson, and Donaldson are all busts, the A’s are still just about as good in 2009 as they were with Harden, meaning they picked up Gallagher’s age 24 to 27 seasons for free.

I’m not a huge Sean Gallagher fan, as my rather conservative projection above shows, and after running through all this, but if I was the A’s, I still might have considered swapping Harden for Gallagher straight up. The fact that they got Murton, Patterson, and Donaldson as sweetner is just a bonus.

This deal is a win for the A’s, even if it doesn’t necessarily seem like it. They don’t take much away from their 2009 team while making the 2010 to 2013 squads potentially a lot better.

With the advent of the calendar year data here on the site I have gotten a few questions regarding what constitutes “good” win probability statistics in the various time parameters. One question in particular piqued my interest: How do the context-neutral wins look across the position spectrum? The reader essentially wanted to know how, say, Brian McCann’s WPA/LI over the last two calendar years stacked up not just to all other offensive players but all other catchers. Not only would something like this help show which players’ context-neutral contributions were above- or below-average but it would allow a look at how the averages change from position to position.

Looking at the last two calendar years, with anyone amassing 450+ plate appearances (to use a qualifier but allow for mid-season callups), here are the positional averages with the top player(s) at each:

C: -0.86 WPA/LI, Russell Martin, 3.62 WPA/LI
1B: 2.17 WPA/LI, Albert Pujols, 10.77 WPA/LI and Lance Berkman, 10.65 WPA/LI
2B: -0.10 WPA/LI, Chase Utley, 8.77 WPA/LI
3B: 1.03 WPA/LI, Chipper Jones, 10.26 WPA/LI and Alex Rodriguez, 9.33 WPA/LI
SS: -0.65 WPA/LI, Hanley Ramirez, 6.75 WPA/LI
OF: 0.95 WPA/LI, Matt Holliday, 9.21 WPA/LI
SP: 1.10 WPA/LI, Roy Halladay, 6.90 WPA/LI and C.C. Sabathia, 6.06 WPA/LI

The outfielders on the leaderboards here are lumped together rather than separated by left, center, or right, so their results may shift a bit when properly divided. I also did not use relievers since there are all different types of them—closers, setup men, long relievers, etc—and I don’t much like comparing one set to another out of their element.

These overall results will change as the season goes on as well since calendar years implies a duration spanning yesterday to the same day two years ago; since we are currently in the middle of the season this is not a concrete look at the WPA/LI from concluded years, which I’ll get to sometime later this week. The scary aspect of these numbers is that, of those meeting my previously established cutoff point, any Catcher, Second Baseman, or Shortstop that has a 0.00 WPA/LI over the last two calendar years—meaning their efforts ended up cancelling each other out to the point of zero contribution—is above average. Essentially, someone at these positions contributing, on average, no context-neutral wins, is above average. For now, though, you can see that the averages supply, at the very least, the general ranges for where the benchmarks should be set.

There are a couple of things we know for sure about pitchers, and one of them is that fastball velocity almost always peaks early and declines as a pitcher ages. Rarely will you see someone begin throwing harder later in their career, especially pitchers who have had to deal with a long series of injuries.

Chan Ho Park wants to be the exception that proves the rule. Here is his average fastball velocity for each of the last four years.

2005: 89.3 MPH
2006: 89.5 MPH
2007: 88.4 MPH
2008: 92.3 MPH

That 2008 reading sticks out like a sore thumb. For those wondering if it’s an anomaly due to the Dodgers gun, it doesn’t appear so – Chad Billingsley, Derek Lowe, and Brad Penny all have the same or slightly lower fastball velocities that they did a year ago, and the Pitch F/x data on Park confirms the BIS data we have here on the site. Chan Ho Park has, for whatever reason, found an extra 4 MPH that he hasn’t had in a long, long time.

It’s showing up in the results, too. His strikeout rate is the highest it’s been since 2002, and his 4.09 FIP would be the fourth lowest mark he’s posted in his career if he can keep pitching at this level the rest of the season. Of course, that FIP is a pretty far cry from his current 2.36 ERA, which is built on a ridiculously unsustainable 89.7% LOB% – his run prevention is going to regress even if he can keep pitching as well as he has up to this point.

Generally, we would look at a 35-year-old who hasn’t been an effective pitcher in years as a prime candidate for collapse, but armed with the knowledge that Park is throwing harder than ever, we have real reason to think he might be able to keep getting hitters out. The real question, then, is how on earth he found that kind of extra velocity at this stage in his career?

Last week I wrote about the log jam in Milwaukee regarding prospects Mat Gamel and Matt LaPorta. Well, Milwaukee solved part of that issue now that the organization has sent LaPorta to the Indians as part of the trade for C.C. Sabathia. Since we have already taken a look at the big-named prospect, let’s have a look-see at the other prospects in the deal.

Zach Jackson, LHP, Triple-A
Jackson was originally drafted 32nd overall by the Toronto Blue Jays in 2004 out of Texas A&M. At the time, he was considered an advanced college arm with a limited ceiling. Unfortunately, the latter part was true but the former was not, as Jackson has yet to solidify a big league role in five pro seasons. The 25-year-old southpaw has terrible Triple-A numbers this season, including a 7.85 ERA and 81 hits allowed in 57.1 innings split between the starting rotation and the bullpen. In his MLB career, Jackson has allowed 53 hits in 42 innings and has posted a strikeout rate of just 4.93 K/9.

Rob Bryson, RHP, A-ball
Bryson was a 31st round selection in the 2006 draft out of a Delaware high school. He has bounced back and forth between the starting rotation and the bullpen during his two seasons in the minors and has good numbers this year. He currently has allowed 43 hits in 55 innings and has struck out 77 batters. He is an extreme fly ball pitcher with a ground out to air out ratio of 0.87. He has a low-90s fastball, breaking ball and change-up.

Taylor Green, 3B, High-A (Rumored to be the Player to be Named Later)
Green, 21, was a find in the 25th round of the 2005 draft out of a community college. The left-handed hitting Canadian struggled in his debut as a 19-year-old second baseman in Rookie ball and hit .231/.328/.308 in 221 at-bats. He was moved up to A-ball in 2007 (and over to the hot corner) and thrived with a line of .327/.406/.516 with 14 homers and 86 RBI in 397 at-bats. So far this season, Green is performing well at High-A ball and currently has a line of .295/.380/.444 with 10 homers in 302 at-bats. He also has a BB-K rate of 1.00. His strikeout rate has dropped from 16.4 percent in 2007 to 13.8 in 2008.

At first glance it does not appear that Cleveland received a ton of value in this trade, with the majority of the talent locked up in one player: Matt LaPorta. But one must consider that the Brewers may have Sabathia’s services for just three months, if he elects to leave via free agency this winter. LaPorta is also a very talented player and has Travis Hafner-in-his-prime upside and can now be moved back to first base or spend time as a designated hitter.

Yesterday I discussed how Pat Burrell’s apparent all star snub was the most egregious in the senior circuit. Also mentioned was how the construction of these rosters never was nor never will be perfect, due in large part now to the starters being voted on by fans and the managerial staff possessing the pre-requisite rule requiring each team at least one representative. Undeserving players will make it and quite deserving ones will not. Such is life… or the all star game.

Today we will take a position by position look at the American League roster and, using WPA/LI, see how the fans, players and managers did. Did anyone named to the team not deserve to be there? Any deserving players left off? Of teams with just one representative, was the right player chosen? To get this party started, here are the players voted in and their WPA/LI rank at their position. Also be sure to note that the ranks are amongst only those who qualify for a leaderboard.

C: Joe Mauer (1)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (2)
2B: Dustin Pedroia (3)
SS: Derek Jeter (2)
3B: Alex Rodriguez (1)
OF: Josh Hamilton (2)
OF: Manny Ramirez (5)
OF: Ichiro Suzuki (out of top ten)
DH: Milton Bradley* (1)

*Bradley is replacing David Ortiz and actually leads all AL “outfielders” in context-neutral wins.

Looking at those voted in, the only odd pick (out of say the top three at that position) is Ichiro, but come on, he’s Ichiro. I honestly have no problem with fans wanting him in the game as a starter. Perhaps J.D. Drew should be there but if another Yankees or Red Sox player found himself in the starting lineup I would write a completely empty threat conveying my likely short-lived anger.

Here are the reserve position players and their WPA/LI rank at that position, looking at all players with at least 220 PA:

C: Dioner Navarro (2), Jason Varitek (out of top ten)
1B: Justin Morneau (3)
2B: Ian Kinsler (1)
SS: Michael Young (1), and the only AL SS with positive WPA/LI
3B: Carlos Guillen (2), Joe Crede (out of top ten)
OF: J.D. Drew (3)
OF: Grady Sizemore (4)
OF: Carlos Quentin (6)

Looking at the reserves we see the actual context-neutral leaders at 2B and SS, as well as the second place C and 3B. Of outfielders, including Bradley, the top six were chosen. Realistically, the only odd choices of these reserves, when discussing WPA/LI, are Varitek and Crede. Here are the pitchers and their ranks as either a starter or reliever:

SP: Cliff Lee (1)
SP: Roy Halladay (2)
SP: Justin Duchsherer (3)
SP: Ervin Santana (5)
SP: Joe Saunders (7)
SP: Scott Kazmir (12), Kaz doesn’t qualify but his 1.32 WPA/LI would fall 12th
RP: Joakim Soria (1)
RP: Mariano Rivera (2)
RP: Joe Nathan (3)
RP: Francisco Rodriguez (4)
RP: Jonathan Papelbon (5)
RP: George Sherrill (way out of top ten)

The relievers appear to be spot on with the exception of Sherrill, who was clearly chosen due to the Orioles needing a representative and his 27 saves ranking second in the league. The starting pitchers appear to be properly assembled as well, as Shaun Marcum, who ranks sixth, is injured and would not be able to participate anyways. Still, that leaves the fourth place context-neutral pitcher out of the mix in John Danks of the first place Chicago White Sox. Going position by position again, here are some notables that were left out, either ranking higher than those voted in/chosen or coming very close:

C: Nobody
1B: Jason Giambi (1)
2B: Brian Roberts (2)
SS: Nobody. They all stink. Honestly, look for yourself.
3B: Evan Longoria (4)
OF: Jermaine Dye (7), Nick Markakis (8)
SP: John Danks (4)

The most compelling cases to me are those of Roberts, Markakis, and Danks: the Orioles only have one representative and instead of the second best (WPA/LI speaking here) player manning the keystone corner it ended up being a closer whose results clearly benefit from the importance of the situations in which they were accrued. Since the top six outfielders were chosen, Markakis is the odd man out, but I just don’t see why Sherrill had to be their lone player. I won’t lose any sleep over Longoria either because even if he doesn’t get voted in on the final ballot, he will definitely be a multiple all star over the course of his career.

With this in mind, it seems the AL actually did a pretty good job assembling their roster. Some reserves should be starting and vice-versa, but relative to WPA/LI, remove Varitek and Sherrill and this team doesn’t exhibit many egregious errors in my eyes.

Continuing on in the week long series on the 50 most valuable assets in major league baseball. If you missed the introduction, it can be found here.

Ranking, Player, Position, Franchise, 2006-2008 WPA/LI
5. Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis, 13.79 WPA/LI
4. David Wright, 3B, New York Mets, 9.05 WPA/LI
3. Grady Sizemore, CF, Cleveland, 8.47 WPA/LI
2. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida, 7.11 WPA/LI
1. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay, 0.80 WPA/LI

Pujols is the perfect hitter. Among active players, he has the highest career batting average, second highest career on base percentage (only Coors-aided Todd Helton is higher), and highest career slugging percentage. There is literally no one in the game that can compare to his abilities with a bat in his hands. He has remarkable bat control, a great approach, and terrific power. And, just for good measure, he’s made himself an outstanding defensive first baseman – perhaps the best in the league. Even at $16 million a year through 2011, he’s still a ridiculous bargain for the level of play he provides. Only the nagging injuries that have kept him out of the line-up too frequently keep him from being further up this list, but make no mistake, we will all tell our grandchildren that we got to watch the great Pujols play.

When you have a 25-year-old third baseman who hits like Mike Schmidt, you sign him up for as long as you possibly can and do a happy dance. That’s what the Mets did with Wright, inking him to a deal that will keep him in Queens through 2013. Wright’s a very good hitter, and there’s still room for power growth that could allow him to make the leap to great hitter. His defense at third has improved quite a bit, and the offense he provides from the hot corner at a young age makes him a legitimate star.

Still just 25-years-old, Sizemore has added legitimate home run power to his repertoire this year, as he’s just two home runs away from matching his 2007 season total before this year’s all-star break. The power surge, combined with a slight decrease in strikeout rate, shows the maturation of a player just entering his prime. He has a legitimate chance to go 40-40 this year, and oh yea, he plays a pretty good center field as well. He will never be the premier player in the game at any one particular skill, but his excellence at everything makes him a superstar. While it’s been a disappointing year in Cleveland, the Indians’ fans have to be happy that they have this kid under contract for the next four years for a total of $26 million. He’s the building block around which a great franchise can be established, and the production he gives his team for what their paying him makes him one of the game’s truly great assets.

I expect there to be a minor outrage that Ramirez isn’t #1 on this list, and when the assumption that you’re the second most valuable asset in the game is controversial, you know you’re pretty special. Ramirez’s bat has developed far faster than anyone could have expected, and he’s turned into one of the premier power/speed guys we’ve seen in the last fifty years. In the history of baseball, only 13 players have posted an Isolated Slugging Percentage of .200 or higher in the same year that they stole 50+ bases. Here is that list. Look at the names on there – Cobb, Henderson, Morgan, Bonds – and you’ll see just how impressive Ramirez’s combination of skills are. And just in case the offense isn’t impressive enough, he plays shortstop. Sort of. Because as great of a hitter as he is, Ramirez isn’t really much defensively, and realistically, he should probably be in center field. While he has the physical tools to handle shortstop, the instincts and reactions just aren’t there, and his skills would be maximized in the outfield, where his raw speed would allow him to make up for the first step that he doesn’t have. While it takes away some of the value of his bat, it certainly doesn’t diminish Ramirez’s value much – he’s still a franchise player and a great, great talent.

And now, for the most valuable asset in major league baseball – Evan Longoria.

Yes, I know, he only has a half season of major league experience, and we have to be careful drawing too many conclusions from sample sizes that don’t include more than 300 major league at-bats. However, the value of his abilities is so great, and his contract is so ridiculously awesome for Tampa, that the positives more than outweigh the negatives and make him the guy I wouldn’t trade for any other one player in the game.

He’s just 22 years old, but he already is showing legitimate middle of the order power, posting a .256 ISO thanks to 39 of his 79 hits going for extra bases. When you have a kid who can drive the ball like Longoria can at a young age, you have a special hitter in the making. The power is simply a pleasant surprise, however, as Longoria is a legitimate all around hitter who has a good approach at the plate and can hit to all fields. We’re not looking at an Adam Dunn type of slugger, but rather a complete hitter who can also turn on a fastball and put it in the seats. Meanwhile, his defense is nearly as good as his offense, as he’s already one of the game’s best defensive third baseman. He has enough range that it wouldn’t be a stretch for him to play shortstop, and the Rays have already acknowledged this ability by putting him there earlier this year. His hands and footwork are top notch, and his abilities with the glove are reminiscent of a younger Scott Rolen. While he’s going to be a terrific hitter, he’s also going to toss in top shelf defense as well. You just don’t find 22-year-olds who are this good at both aspects of the game this soon.

On ability, he’s terrific, but it’s really the contract that he just signed that puts him over the top. Tampa wisely saw a star in the making and decided to strike early, locking him up to a contract that gives them the ability to keep him around for eight more years after this one, and at salaries that are going to be laughably low by the end of this deal. He signed away the absolute prime of his career for an absolute maximum of about $50 million, and Tampa is only on the hook for a guaranteed $17.5 million through 2013. If Longoria gets hurt and regresses significantly, well, they didn’t pay him much anyway. If he turns into the perennial all-star that we should expect him to, then he might go down as the least compensated superstar in recent history.

When you have a 22-year-old who can hit, field, run, and has agreed to play for bargain salaries until he’s 31, well, you have a player you just shouldn’t trade.

Following the hour-long roster announcements yesterday all but two players–who will have to wait for the final vote–learned of their plans to venture to New York for the festivities. The rosters, which can be found here, comprise 32 of the best players in each league relative to the requirement that each team in that league be represented. Additionally, the starters are chosen by the fans and, quite simply, are not too often fully indicative of those deserving to start.

With that in mind it is almost impossible for a perfect 32-man squad to be assembled. Once past the fan voting a manager then has to make sure each team is represented, which usually means someone more deserving at that position will be left out; occasionally this more deserving player will be doubly left out after failing to secure a starting spot.

I used to get upset and take it personally when players of interest were snubbed, but as I began to mount the years on it has become too difficult to truly feel bad for people who make fifty times (sadly, I don’t even know if that’s an exaggeration anymore) what my entire family makes in a given year. Still, there are certain players sure to be snubbed because it is human nature to disagree with what has been established. Even if the all star roster choosing was automated by some specified criteria there would be hordes of fans and analysts arguing that some players had “intangibles” or “were better than the numbers.” And even if we somehow tweaked that system to take these intangibles and gritty play factors into account, some would argue how those aspects could be properly quantified.

Essentially, there is no way to pick a right all-star team other than to either brainwash a multitude of fans, take away fan voting, or take away the all-teams-represented criteria. None of these three are going to happen so it just is not worth getting upset over. Even thus, I decided to spend today looking at both leagues and trying to find the one to three most egregious snubs. For now we will look at the NL while the AL will post later tonight.

Looking at offensive WPA, 7 of the top 10 made the team, with the other three coming in the forms of Pat Burrell (2nd), Jason Bay (4th), and Carlos Lee (10th). Now, Burrell and Lee are also included on that final ballot, but for my money David Wright is going to win that in a landslide. Looking at offensive WPA/LI, Burrell ranks 4th and did not make the team, Bay ranks 8th, and the aforementioned Wright ranks 9th. When probing the WPA/LI of NL pitchers we find that Cole Hamels, at 2.42, ranks 2nd in the entire league to just Dan Haren. Tim Hudson ranks 5th and Johan Santana ranks 6th; neither of them made the squad either.

It is too tough to gauge pitchers because if I were a manager my staff would house a few starters and then a bunch of really reliable relievers. With that in mind I will say I think Hamels is more deserving than Ryan Dempster, especially given how many players the Cubs have in the game, but I’m not going to lose hypothetical sleep over his exclusion. After all, Dempster has been surprisingly good and my friends used to joke it should be called the All-Surprise Game; based on how often players surprisingly good for just one half of a season will make the team.

Some could argue Kyle Lohse is very deserving but I’ll then play devil’s advocate and ask which starting pitcher would you remove for him? He may be posting very good numbers but I’d personally feel much more comfortable with Tim Lincecum, Edinson Volquez, Carlos Zambrano, Ben Sheets, both Diamondbacks; and then a guy like Aaron Cook is all too similar, plus his manager is the skipper of the whole team. Then again, I’ve also seen arguments against Lohse saying that he shouldn’t make it just because of his W-L. I agree, except he wouldn’t be making the team based solely on that. He has a 3.61 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 2.00 K/BB, and 72% strand rate; he has had a very good first half, but there really just is no room for him.

This leaves us realistically with Pat Burrell and Jason Bay. Between these two it’s an easy choice for the NL’s most egregious snub. Burrell ranks 2nd in WPA in the entire sport and 4th in WPA/LI in the NL, but these are overall ranks. Amongst outfielders, none in the NL can stake claim as having been better in the first half than Burrell. When discussing Bay, it’s easier to understand why he was left off: because Nate McLouth made the team. Bay and Xavier Nady were arguably more deserving than McLouth, but Nasty Nate has had a surprising first half. Therefore, Alfonso Soriano should rest during the festivities in order to begin a domino effect of Ryan Braun or Matt Holliday starting and Burrell claiming one of their bench spots.

Continuing on in the week long series on the 50 most valuable assets in major league baseball. If you missed the introduction, it can be found here.

Ranking, Player, Position, Franchise, 2006-2008 WPA/LI
10. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado, -1.00 WPA/LI
9. Tim Lincecum, RHP, San Francisco, 2.45 WPA/LI
8. Felix Hernandez, RHP, Seattle, 3.22 WPA/LI
7. Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia, 10.49 WPA/LI
6. Brian McCann, C, Atlanta, 2.84 WPA/LI

When he’s healthy enough to take the field, you can count on one hand the list of human beings on the planet who are better defensively than Tulowitzki. According to pretty much every possible way you could evaluate defense – stats, scouts, magic 8 ball – Tulo was somewhere between 20 and 30 runs better than an average defensive shortstop last year. Shortstops are, of course, the very best defenders in the game already, so Tulo was heads and shoulders ahead of the best of the best. When recounting how Colorado made it to the World Series last year, nothing deserves mention before Tulo’s defense. There are still legitimate questions about whether he’s just going to be an average hitter or develop into a good one, but here’s the thing – if he puts up a major league average offensive line, his defense is good enough to make him a 4 to 5 win player alone. If he turns himself into a real hitter, he’ll be the best player in the game. The Rockies were wise to lock him up when they did.

There haven’t been too many college arms in recent years that caused as much division coming into the draft as Lincecum. His diminutive size, unorthodox mechanics, and crazy workloads at the University of Washington convinced a lot of people that the risks surrounding him had reached the level of red flags. The Giants, however, ignored the risks, focused on the reward, and have reaped the benefits of one of the game’s best young pitchers. Lincecum’s power arsenal allows him to miss enough bats that the lack of command isn’t a huge problem, and he’s dominated the National League since showing up in San Francisco. At 24 and with just over one full year of service time, he’s a long way from any kind of real payday, and as long as he keeps his right arm attached to the rest of his body, he’s going to keep getting people out with his unique pitching style.

I, among others, have been hyping up King Felix for so long that a significant portion of people view him as a disappointment for not turning into the game’s best pitcher to date, so I feel somewhat compelled to remind those people that Felix is still 22 years old. He has racked up just short of 600 major league innings at an age where a normal pitching prospect is still in Double-A. He’s shown extended flashes of brilliance, and his stuff is still better than any other pitcher alive. The upside is still off the charts, and there’s an argument to be made that trading him right now, for anyone, would be selling low. However, he’s garnered enough service time that he stops being free next year, and he’s a couple of years away from what will almost certainly be the biggest free agent contract ever given to a pitcher. As much as I love Felix, he still hasn’t become the ace he can be, and he’s going to get paid like the greatest pitcher in history pretty soon. It’s time to take your throne, kid.

There’s a pretty good argument to be made that, right now, Utley is the best player in baseball. His consistency over the last four years has made him one of the game’s truly elite hitters, and it doesn’t hurt that he plays a terrific second base. There are better hitters, and there are better fielders, but there aren’t any who offer a better package of both. If he doesn’t win an MVP award soon, he should just steal the pair that have already been given to his undeserving teammates. However, he’s already 29, second baseman don’t age particularly well, and he’s getting paid like an All-Star. That’s enough to knock him down a few pegs on this list, but don’t let it talk you out of realizing just how great he really is.

The return of McCann’s 2006 power has allowed him to re-establish himself as the game’s premier offensive force behind the plate, and at just 24, he’s off to the kind of start to a career that ends in Cooperstown. When you offer the combination of middle-of-the-order offense and the ability to catch, you have a remarkably valuable player. The Braves got McCann signed long term at the right time, and thanks to their prescience, he won’t earn market value until he becomes a free agent in 2014. By then, Atlanta will have received the prime years of his career for a grand total of $27 million. That’s a huge asset.