The Diamondbacks have been a disappointment so far this season, failing to distance themselves from their NL West rivals on several occasions. Now, with a month and a half remaining, they face the serious possibility of losing the division and missing the post-season. None of these woes can really be attributed to Brandon Webb or Dan Haren, however, as both pitchers have been fantastic this year.

A couple months ago that I would take Webb over Haren in a crucial situation but that there weren’t any other twosomes I would want to headline my rotation. Granted, a CC Sabathia/Ben Sheets twosome may give them a run for their money now that Sabathia is in the senior circuit, but Webb/Haren have both put together great seasons. Which one is having the better year right now, though? Even though we know and understand that W-L records are terrible evaluative barometers, it’s pretty hard to look at Webb’s 18-4 mark and completely disregard it. That’s what we need to do, however, to get a clear picture of everything. Here are some comparisons:

Webb: 2.85 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
Haren: 2.96 ERA, 1.03 WHIP

Webb: 177 IP, 154 H, 9 HR
Haren: 167 IP, 143 H, 14 HR

Webb: 7.37 K/9, 2.14 BB/9, 3.45 K/BB
Haren: 8.41 K/9, 1.56 BB/9, 5.38 K/BB

Webb: 2.96 FIP, .291 BABIP, 72.8% LOB
Haren: 2.91 FIP, .291 BABIP, 74.3% LOB

Webb: 2.12 WPA/LI, 2.66 REW, 26.73 BRAA
Haren: 3.23 WPA/LI, 3.14 REW, 31.68 BRAA

The first two comparisons may lean towards Webb, but after that it is pretty tough to argue that Haren has not been the better pitcher to date. He doesn’t walk anyone, has a great strikeout rate, isn’t posting an unsustainably high strand rate, and his BABIP isn’t abnormally low either. On top of that, his context-neutral contributions are over one full win better than Webb, while his wins based on shifts in run expectancy are almost a half-win better.

One of the aspects I touched on last time dealt with Webb having better numbers in high leverage situations. That has not changed:

Webb: .200/.260/.264, .524 OPS
Haren: .289/.317/.447, .764 OPS

The caveat to this, however, is that Webb has 126 PA in these situations and Haren only has 84. Haren doesn’t seem to be as good under the pressure but he has been good enough this season to avoid these pressure situations. Granted, some of this is also contingent upon the defense and game state but you may be inclined to think that the better a pitcher is, the less high leverage situations he would find himself in. It won’t be true in all cases, but if a pitcher is constantly in the midst of high leverage situations—and he isn’t a late inning reliever—that means runners are constantly reaching base and posing legitimate run-scoring threats.

Just 12.6% of Haren’s PAs this year have been of this nature whereas Webb is under pressure 17.4% of the time. Take from that what you will, or take away nothing from it. If nothing else, it is interesting to note. It looks like Haren has performed better than his sinker-balling teammate this year even though most people are going to be swayed by Webb’s impressive W-L record and slightly lower ERA. Don’t be fooled, though… Haren has been just as effective, if not better. If they do manage to make the playoffs this twosome could prove huge in their World Series chances.

Attention everyone looking for the missing offense in the AL in 2008 – I found it today.

Baltimore beat Detroit 16-8 behind five home runs from the group of Melvin Mora, Luke Scott, and Aubrey Huff. The losing Tigers racked up 15 hits and chased the Orioles starting pitcher from the game in the second inning.

Toronto beat Boston 15-4 thanks to 10 doubles, including four from Alex Rios. They had 12 extra base hits, but only one home run (by Adam Lind), and hammered Josh Beckett for 8 runs in 2 1/3 innings pitched.

New York beat Kansas City 15-6 as Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez combined to go a perfect 7 for 7 with a couple of walks, reaching base all nine times they came to the plate. It’s a good thing Brian Bannister understands FIP, because his ERA took a beating, giving up 10 runs in just an inning of work.

Chicago beat Oakland 13-1 thanks to Carlos Quentin’s continued success (2 for 3, home run, two walks, four RBI). They also got a grand slam from Alexei Ramirez. Not rejuvenated Ken Griffey Jr went 0 for 3, however.

Minnesota beat Seattle 11-8 as the two teams combined for 33 hits. Raul Ibanez carried the day, going 5 for 5 in a losing effort, while Jason Kubel was the hitting star for Minnesota (4 for 5, a couple of doubles) as he continued to kill the Mariners this year.

And, finally, as I write this, Carlos Pena just launched a three run homer to give the Rays a 4-0 lead over Texas in the 3rd inning. Odds are pretty good that there will be a few more runs scored in that one too, adding a potential sixth high scoring game to the AL ledger.

In the statistical community, you’ll generally see two baselines for metrics that compare players one to another – average and replacement level. There have been a lot of arguments about what replacement level is, whether it’s the same for each position, and whether or not it works for every team. However, most people generally don’t quibble with above average metrics, because the concept of average is taught in third grade math. Everyone knows what average is.

But what does average look like? When we talk about contribution over an average player, who are we talking about? Who is the personification of average production in MLB?

For 2008, one man stands above the rest – the most consistently average player in baseball. That man is Kelly Johnson.

His batting average is .266, compared to a league average of .259.
His on base percentage is .335, compared to a league average of .330.
His slugging percentage is .416, compared to a league average of .413.

He’s posting an average BB/K rate, an average ISO, and an average BABIP. His WPA/LI (which is measured as above average) is -0.01. He’s even average defensively, as the Fielding Bible +/- system ranks him as just +3 plays as a second baseman, which is not quite a premium position but not a spot for oafs either.

You name the skill, Johnson is probably about league average at it. So, the next time you hear someone refer to runs or wins above average, feel free to reinterpret it as runs or wins above Kelly Johnson.

Pitchers Jeremy Jeffress and Jeff Allison have both had battles with drugs. Thankfully, they are both finally back on the mound and trying to resurrect their formerly-promising professional careers. Thanks to Texas Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton’s well-publicized battle with narcotics as a minor leaguer, there is renewed hope that players dealing with personal demons can have productive Major League careers.

Jeffress, whom I touched on earlier this season, was signed out of a Virginia high school with the 16th overall pick of the 2006 draft. He struggled a bit in his short-season debut after the draft and then made just 18 appearances in 2007 due to suspensions related to drug use. Now reportedly clean, and with a new focus, Jeffress has improved his control significantly (down two runs per nine innings) over his debut season and is striking out more than 12 batters per nine innings. In High-A ball, the 20 year old allowed 65 hits in 79.1 innings with 102 strikeouts. He was recently promoted to Double-A where he allowed two runs and three walks in 2.1 innings in one start.

Allison has a steeper hill to climb in his return to professional baseball because he has missed far more baseball than Jeffress and also had a much more dangerous addiction. The 23-year-old pitcher was originally drafted 16th overall out of a Massachusetts high school in the 2003 draft. He appeared in three games that season and then missed the next year entirely. Allison returned for part of 2005 and made 17 starts with OK results, especially considering what he was going through off the field. Things fell apart for him again, though, and he missed all of 2006 and 2007. Allowed to return to professional baseball in 2008, Allison has expectedly had an inconsistent season in High-A ball. He has allowed 101 hits in 104.2 innings, along with 46 walks and 61 strikeouts. Left-handed batters are hitting .305 against him, while right-handed batters are managing just .221. With runners in scoring position, batters are scorching Allison for a .316 average, compared to .213 with the bases empty, so he may be trying to do too much.

Both players have taken encouraging first steps in their returns from drug abuse, but it still a long road ahead. I, for one, am rooting for both of them.

Between a few errands yesterday, I happened to catch one of those ESPN baseball analysis segments in which a series of supposedly interesting questions are analyzed from all angles until the viewer walks away with an extreme understanding of the subject. Or maybe the opposite. I can’t remember. Anyways, the analyst was Chris Singleton, whom I actually feel has the best presence on-screen and is the smoothest of the bunch, generally offering good insights. Something he mentioned on this particular segment, however, made me cringe.

They were showing a highlight of the DBacks-Rockies game in which Adam Dunn grounded out to end the game in a clutch spot. Singleton started by mentioning how tough of a plate appearance it was with so much at stake and Brian Fuentes—who hides the ball very well—on the mound. So far so good. But when Chris got into his overall evaluation of Dunn, despite presenting the information in a smooth manner, it came off as nothing more than generic announcer-talk that exhibited next to no knowledge of what he was discussing.

To paraphrase, he essentially said that while Dunn will hit homers he will also strike out quite a bit… and because of the strikeouts he’ll post low on base and slugging percentages.

What!? Seriously?

So, does that mean that Hanley Ramirez is posting low on base and slugging percentages? As Dave showed a couple of days ago, these players have virtually identical OBP and SLG numbers over the last two years. Why would Singleton say this? If he meant to say that, because Dunn strikes out so much it prevents him from getting more extra base hits and more opportunities at reaching base, then it would make at least some sense… except that would mean Dunn would be a completely different player. Basically, there really is no justifiable reason to make this comment other than having no idea what you are talking about.

His OBP is virtually the same as Chase Utley, who by all accounts gets on base at a very decent clip. His SLG is higher than David Wright’s and virtually the same as the aforementioned Ramirez as well as Prince Fielder. In fact, Dunn and Fielder have very similar OBP and SLG numbers despite Prince’s forty point advantage in batting average. If Dunn was striking out a ton and producing a .230/.320/.430 slash line I might be able to understand Singleton’s point of view, but his actual line is .234/.373/.525.

His OBP and SLG may be lower than his counts last year or a few years ago, but they are not low.

It’s been a disappointing season in Atlanta with more downs than ups and, for the first time since the days of Columbus, that the Braves weren’t contenders down the stretch. However, there’s been a bright spot down south, and that bright spot hit for the cycle last night. We are, of course, talking about the resurgence of Mark Kotsay.

Over the winter, the A’s traded Kotsay to the Braves for Joey Devine, while also agreeing to pick up all but $2 million of the salary owed to Kotsay this year. While Devine has blossomed in Oakland and the Braves would certainly like to have him back, they have to be happy with what they’ve gotten from Kotsay, even with injury issues that kept him out for the month of June.

His 5 for 5 night last night brought his season line to .300/.346/.443. His gap power is back and his contact rate is still strong, and with better health has come more hard hit balls – his line drive rate is up to 21.9% from the 14.5% of last year. More line drives mean more hits, and that difference is the reason that his batting average has climbed back from his .214 mark last year.

As we can see from his WPA/LI (0.04), as well as the great new RV/PA (0.01) from the guys at Stat Corner, Kotsay’s been a dead on league average hitter this year. The injuries have taken a toll on his defensive abilities, and he’s probably more of a corner outfielder than a CF at this point in his career, but that just brings him down to an average player overall.

It isn’t every day when you can pick up an average player for who you owe just $2 million for the season. The loss of Devine hurts, but Kotsay has been a success for the Braves in a season where they haven’t had as many of those as they needed.

Around this time of year those who write or analyze, be it in the mainstream media or the blogosphere, tend to get involved in posts discussing end of season award-winners. Heck, even Dave and I joined the fray yesterday in discussing the AL Cy Young Award with regards to Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. In the comments sections of both of our articles, the conversation surrounding who will win the award vs. who should win the award began to surface. Conversations like this seem to sprout up all over the place so I figured a post was in order to attempt to figure out why they exist and where they come from.

For starters, the idea of someone who should win something vs. someone who will win the same thing implies that the eventual winner is not deserving of whatever it is he is winning. In our case, an award like the MVP or Cy Young. Those in the camp of the former are seceding that their guy is not going to win the award but that he should. And, when they say he should, it really means that if they were voting, the results would be much different.

This then implies those voting are wrong in their decisions.

Some of the time they are, but really, do those voting on the awards get it wrong all the time? And who is deciding the criteria with which to gauge their decisions? These awards are voted on by mainstream writers, ones who generally are not well-versed in much other than batting average or win-loss record. Most of the time, us in the sabermetrics community mock their lack of statistical prowess but, for me at least, I don’t truly get bothered unless the author blatantly misuses or quotes numbers out of context.

Saying, for instance, that Adam Dunn lacks value because he has a .230 BA annoys me because the writers are making a definitive claim about his worth while using a metric that does tell us something, but nowhere near enough to make such a claim. On the other hand, if someone says that Player X could win the MVP award because he made the most impact on a good team and has a lot of home runs, RBIs as well as a high batting average, I really do not get that bothered. Sure, I know that there are plenty of other, better metrics out there to truly measure worth, but I don’t really care much about the awards. It isn’t going to effect me if someone “undeserving” wins.

See, for us who analyze stats and base judgments on a series of metrics, awards just aren’t that meaningful other than for posts discussing, for instance, why David Wright or Matt Holliday was more deserving than Jimmy Rollins… or why Johan Santana should have won instead of Bartolo Colon in 2005. Do I wish those making these decisions were a bit more educated with regards to evaluating players? Of course… but I’m not going to let it ruin my day that they vote for the wrong person, unless of course the losing player had planned on splitting his award bonus with me.

I guess my point here is that those of us who understand how to evaluate a player better shouldn’t care so much about the awards and should leave it to the people who care more about impact on the game from what they see rather than what some numbers may suggest. As in, why get involved in something or get bothered by something we should care about very little, if at all? Leave the WPA/LI, VORP, BRAA, and UZR to us analysts to do our jobs and properly gauge the true talent levels of players, but let’s not bring them into MVP or Cy Young discussions when we know that the percentage of voters who utilize and understand these metrics is likely much lower than Adam Dunn’s percentage of hits/at-bats.

With Brad Ziegler putting up zeros in Oakland, most of the conversations this year about A.L. West rookie relievers have been centered on the bay area, and rightfully so. However, don’t let Jose Arredondo get lost in the shuffle – he’s having a pretty tremendous debut season himself.

Arredondo, a converted outfielder who has been climbing through the minors as a pitcher since 2005, has impressed the Angels enough to become the primary 8th inning setup guy for LAnaheim. He’s done it with a power fastball (93.6 MPH average velocity) that induces ground balls at a significant clip (56% GB%), but also working in a change-up and a split-finger to keep left-handed hitters off balance. In fact, Arredondo’s two off-speed pitches have been so effective, he’s actually be better against LHBs than RHBs.

vs RHB: .219/.313/.288, 83 PA, 9 BB, 12 K
vs LHB: .147/.194/.206, 72 PA, 4 BB, 20 K

His ability to blow left-handed hitters away with a variety of soft stuff, while pounding right-handed hitters with a groundball inducing fastball, makes him a perfect high leverage reliever. He has different weapons for different scenarios, and unlike a lot of converted position players, he’s not just trying to get batters out on arm strength.

Now, he’s not as good as his 0.92 ERA suggests – the 3.17 FIP is closer to his real talent level, but since relievers post a below average BABIP as a group, FIP will underrate him a little bit. But it seems clear that with his ability to throw strikes, miss bats, and control hitters from both sides of the plate, the Angels have a pretty terrific young relief ace waiting in the wings should Francisco Rodriguez choose to leave via free agency this winter.

With the deadline for 2008 amateur draft picks to sign professional contracts expiring on Friday, it is a perfect time to reflect on drafts past. Let’s take a look at the Top 5 picks in the last five drafts (prior to 2008) and see who the best pick was and how they are doing now.

2007 Top 5: David Price, Mike Moustakas, Josh Vitters, Daniel Moskos, Matt Wieters

Price (Tampa) made his Triple-A debut for the Tampa Bay organization last night after posting an 11-0 record and sub-2.00 ERA in High-A and Double-A ball in 2008. Wieters (Baltimore) is also looking like a steal with the fifth overall selection for Baltimore. Given how Moskos (Pittsburgh) has imploded, wouldn’t Pittsburgh fans love to have the catcher hitting .353/.453/.602?

2006 Top 5: Luke Hochevar, Greg Reynolds, Evan Longoria, Brad Lincoln, Brandon Morrow

Hochevar (Kansas City) looks like he is going to be an OK, but not great, big league pitcher. Longoria (Tampa), on the other hand, looks like a future star. The rookie is hitting .278/.352/.533 with 22 homers in 381 at-bats. Reynolds (Colorado) and Lincoln (Pittsburgh) have been slowed by injuries – a disturbing trend among top-drafted college hurlers in recent years.

2005 Top 5: Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Jeff Clement, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun

Upton (Arizona) is still showing signs of being a superstar-in-the-making but he is still experiencing growing pains. Of the three third basemen taken in the Top 5, Braun (Milwaukee) was the afterthought but he has been the best Major Leaguer so far. Zimmerman (Washington) has struggled these last two seasons after a great rookie season in 2006. Gordon (Kansas City) is showing signs of improvement after a disappointing rookie season, but he is still not hitting for average or power.

2004 Top 5: Matt Bush, Justin Verlander, Philip Humber, Jeff Niemann, Mark Rogers

Bush is by far the worst No. 1 overall pick in years. Verlander (Detroit) wins as the best player among these Top 5 almost by default given that he is the only one who has been consistently healthy. Like many Detroit Tigers, though, his 2008 season has been a disappointment. Niemann (Tampa) and Humber (Minnesota via NY Mets) both have a shot to be average big league pitchers, which is a far cry from their previous potentials.

2003 Top 5: Delmon Young, Rickie Weeks, Kyle Sleeth, Tim Stauffer, Chris Lubanski

The last three selections on this list are a motley crew. Weeks (Milwaukee) may be the most overrated player in baseball given that he has never hit well but people continue to refer to him as a good hitter on the cusp of breaking out. It’s been four years now. Young (Minnesota via Tampa) is the best player of this quintet but his lack of improvement is disappointing. Yes, he is young but his 2008 season is shaping up to look a lot like his disappointing 2007 campaign. Sleeth is already out of baseball and Stauffer probably isn’t far behind.

The Texas Rangers are known this year for a very, very potent offense. With Josh Hamilton, Milton Bradley, and Ian Kinsler all producing top-of-the-league numbers it becomes very easy to overlook other contributing players on the team. Granted, none of these players are in the pitching department, but Marlon Byrd is having a very solid season and, over the last two weeks has arguably been the best player in baseball.

Byrd has had an interesting and underachieving career. He was once considered a super-prospect in the Phillies farm system but never met expectations in red pinstripes and soon found himself sent packing to the Nationals in exchange for Endy Chavez… yes, the Mets legend once played for the Phillies! He then signed with the Rangers as a free agent prior to the 2007 season and remains there today, roaming all three positions in the outfield.

In 82 games this season, Byrd has produced a .298/.381/.477 slash line, good for an OPS+ of 128. He also has an RZR (fielding metric developed at The Hardball Times) of .957. Though he doesn’t technically qualify for inclusion on their leaderboard, the current leader in the outfield is Adam Jones of the Orioles, whose RZR is .948. Take from that what you will.

Though Byrd’s seasonal line is pretty impressive, he has been extremely hot lately. Since July 8, he has hit .383/.463/.636, for a 1.099 OPS, drawing 14 free passes and fanning just seven times in these 29 games. Since the start of August, however, Byrd has been even better. Using the ‘Last 14 Days’ filter here at Fangraphs, Byrd is hitting .480/.559/.740, a 1.299 OPS. His WPA/LI is 0.84 in this span, which ranks atop the American League. Additionally, his BRAA (12.65) and REW (1.22) rank above all other AL players.

Now, The Book showed us that hot streaks, even the most flammable of the bunch, have next to no predictive value with regards to what will happen from that point on. So, it isn’t to say that because Byrd has produced these numbers over the last two weeks that he will continue to stay hot, or has any type of advantage over someone not as hot lately. Still, he has had a good season thus far and I think it’s safe to say very few people have noticed.

Is he living up to the potential that made its way into his corner as a minor leaguer? No, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a quality major league player