Francisco Liriano is back. Well, literally, at least, if not yet figuratively. Yesterday, Liriano made his return to the Twins rotation after spending May, June, and July in Triple-A and waiting for Minnesota to tire of Livan Hernandez. After they realized that a team on the cusp of first place couldn’t really afford to keep a guy pitching as well as Liriano was off the roster, they finally made the obvious move and gave him his old job back.

Day one went well. 6 innings, 3 hits, 0 runs, 3 walks, 5 strikeouts. His command wasn’t there, throwing 40 of his 96 pitches out of the strike zone, but the Indians didn’t capitalize and he spun his first winning decision of the year. If Liriano can channel his old self, adding him to the team would be the biggest upgrade any team has made all year. But is yesterday’s performance, coupled with his recent destruction of Triple-A, proof that he’s back to the Liriano we saw in 2006?

To answer those kinds of questions, we need to look at what Liriano was throwing, and so we turn to the Pitch F/x data from his start yesterday.

To begin the game, he came after Grady Sizemore with a 91 MPH fastball (called strike), a 92 MPH fastball (ball), an 84 MPH slider (foul), an MPH slider (ball), and an 86 MPH slider (swinging strike). In ’06, his average fastball was 94.7 MPH and his average slider was 87.7, so even though he struck out Sizemore to start off, it wasn’t the Liriano of old. It didn’t get much better, stuff wise.

The fastest pitch Liriano threw all day was 92.3 MPH and his average fastball was 90.9 MPH. He threw 57 fastballs (59%), 19 sliders (20%), and 20 change-ups (21%), showing a significant increase in fastballs thrown at the expense of the slider compared to his 2005 and 2006 seasons.

Liriano is certainly a lot better, and a lot healthier, than he was at the start of the season. And perhaps this incarnation of Liriano can be a big asset that helps carry the team down the stretch, but this is not the same pitcher who was taking the league by storm several years ago. The stuff isn’t back yet.

After losing again last night, the Washington Nationals have now dropped nine straight games, pushing their league worst record to 38-70. They’re on pace to finish 57-105, and while that won’t make them the worst team ever, they’re playing like it.

Or are they? Over the last month, the Nationals are 4-18, which is pretty horrible, but they’ve allowed just 4.4 runs per game over that 22 game stretch. Their offense has still been bad, scoring just 3.6 runs per game, but a 0.8 run per game differential isn’t the kind of thing you expect when a team goes 4-18 and drops nine straight games. Using a pythagorean expectation based on their runs scored and allowed, the Nationals have played more like a .432 team over their last 22 games, which would give them a 10-12 pythag record.

The Nationals aren’t a good team, but they aren’t this bad. For those fans in San Diego and Seattle hoping to out-lose the Nationals in the race for Stephen Strasburg, have a little hope – progression to the mean is on the way. Washington’s the worst team in baseball, but they’re not a .352 club.

As well all know, yesterday was the July 31 trade deadline for Major League Baseball. Even though it was fairly quiet, a number of interesting prospects traded hands, so let’s take a look at some of them.

Gaby Hernandez, RHP
Age:22 | Level: Double-A/Triple-A
From Florida to Seattle for Arthur Rhodes

Hernandez was demoted to Double-A after posting a 7.24 ERA in 13 Triple-A starts. Only 22, the right-hander still has lots of upside and was originally drafted in the third round of the 2004 draft by the New York Mets. He was sent to Florida in the Paul LoDuca. He was sent to Florida in the Paul LoDuca trade prior to the 2007 season. Hernandez has an excellent curve ball, a low-90s fastball and a change-up. He represents a nice return for a 38-year-old LOOGY.

Andy LaRoche, 3B
Age: 24 | Level: Triple-A/Majors
Traded from Los Angeles to Pittsburgh in the three-team Manny Ramirez deal

LaRoche should finally get the opportunity to play everyday, which he deserves. He possesses the potential to hit 25-30 homers, although it remains to be seen how well he will hit for average. Pittsburgh has done a nice job of turning Jason Bay’s and Xavier Nady’s above-average seasons into quality prospects. Brother Adamand Andy will have a chance to play in the same infield.

Bryan Morris, RHP
Age: 21 | Level: A-ball
Traded from Los Angeles to Pittsburgh in the three-team Manny Ramirez deal

Morris was a first-round selection in the 2006 draft by the Dodgers but missed the 2007 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He has been strong this season though by allowing 73 hits and 31 walks in 81.2 innings. Morris has also struck out 72 batters and could be a nice No. 2 starter with a low-90s fastball, curve, slider and change.

Craig Hansen, RHP
Age: 24 | Level: Triple-A/Majors
Traded from Boston to Pittsburgh in the three-team Manny Ramirez deal

The former first round pick out of St. John’s University really needed out of Boston. Although he made it to the Majors shortly after being drafted, he has never been able to stick at the big league level due to below-average command and control. In 2008, he had a 5.58 ERA for Boston in 30.2 innings after allowing 29 hits and 23 walks with 25 strikeouts. Hansen has a mid-90s fastball but is still trying to improve his slider which has slipped a grade or two since college.

Brandon Moss, OF
Age: 24 | Level: Triple-A/Majors
Traded from Boston to Pittsburgh in the three-team Manny Ramirez deal

Moss could get the opportunity to play everyday in Pittsburgh but he is probably a fourth outfielder long-term. The left-handed batter hit .282/.346/.528 in 163 Triple-A at-bats this season and .295/.337/.462 in 78 Major League at-bats. Moss strikes out too much and has just modest power for the corner outfield. He was originally selected in the eighth round out of high school in the 2002 draft.

Well, the trade deadline has passed which means that teams can no longer exchange players and that players cannot change teams from here on out. Or wait, nevermind, they still can, just not through conventional methods. Players can still switch sides for the next month through the magical waiver wire. Everyone has heard the term “waiver” tossed around with cavalier delivery but its actual meaning and implications are not necessarily known by most fans. If you have ever been confused with regards to its exactitudes, do not worry because you are not alone.

For starters, what is the waiver wire? Essentially, the waiver wire is used to gauge interest in certain players of a team as well as make moves when the trading deadline has passed. If a team puts a player of theirs on waivers it does not mean they are steadfastly interesting in moving him; instead, it could mean they are curious as to what could be obtained for his services or perhaps how many teams show interest.

This leads into a bit of “waiver theory.” Teams will put many of their players on waivers, even if they have no intention whatsoever of even listening to offers or taking notice of piqued interest. This occurs because the team in question wants to disguise the players they are actually offering. As a pure hypothetical, a player placed on waivers with an OPS of, say, .760, might look more enticing when surrounded on the waiver wire by teammates with much higher or much lower marks. This same player might not catalyze much discussion if placed by his lonesome.

A player is placed on waivers at 2 PM on day one and has until 1 pm, two business days later, to be claimed. If nobody made a claim for him, and the team doesn’t want his services anymore, they can either send him to the minors, release him, or even work out a trade. If a player is claimed prior to this deadline, the owning team can either pull their man off of waivers, work out a trade, or do nothing and let the claiming team receive the player. Once a player is pulled off of waivers he cannot be traded for another month. Additionally, you can only be pulled off once; if pulled off and placed back on, the player is fair game.

What happens if there are multiple claims? The team with the worst record in the same league gets precedent. If nobody in the same league makes a claim this same rule reverts to the opposite league; the team with the worst record has first dibs, so to speak. For the first month of the season, the previous year’s W-L records are used to gauge these dibs. After that, current season records come into play. This again leads into some waiver theory or strategy, in that some teams will put in a claim simply to block another team from getting a certain player. If the Red Sox want a relief pitcher on waivers, and make a claim for him, the Yankees, who have a worse record, may also make a claim in the hopes that their rivals cannot improve their team.

Then again, if the team owning the relief pitcher doesn’t pull him off of waivers, the Yankees would then be stuck with him whether they like him or not. I hope this cleared up some confusion relative to the inner workings of the waiver wire because, over the next month, it is safe to say we are not going to be at any type of drought of waiver-talk.

The information in this article was derived from an old Jayson Stark article, an older Steve Phillips article, and Tim Dierkes’ post from 2006. Thanks also to Keith Law for further clarifications.

I think we can officially put the issue to rest – Joba Chamberlain is a starting pitcher, and a darn good one. After Wednesday’s performance, he’s now made 11 starts since the Yankees converted him back to the rotation from the bullpen, and his performance is basically equal in both roles.

Starter: 60 2/3 IP, 9% BB%, 27% K%, 0.29 HR/9, 2.49 FIP
Reliever: 23 2/3 IP, 11% BB%, 31% K%, 0.38 HR/9, 2.61 FIP

Despite his command issues in his first couple of starts, Joba’s pounding the strike zone with more regularity now that he’s moved into the starting role. Because he’s not throwing max effort on every pitch, his velocity is down, so the strikeout rate declines a bit as well, but it’s offset since he’s throwing more strikes and has a slightly better home run rate.

He won’t be able to keep his home run rate this low, so he’s due for a bit of a regression, but as a guy who gets a lot of ground balls (53.7% GB%), he’s going to allow fewer long balls than the average starter. When you combine a three to one strikeout to walk ratio with a depressed home run rate, you have a front line starting pitcher. It’s still early, but right now, Joba’s profiling as a Jake Peavy type of pitcher.

The rich get richer.