The 2005 amateur draft was a college-heavy draft in the first round. Twenty of the first 30 picks came from college programs, and only five prep pitchers were chosen in the first 35 selections when also considering the supplemental first round.

Those five pitchers – Chris Volstad, Mark Pawelek, Aaron Thompson, Chaz Roe, and Ryan Tucker – have followed very different career paths in the last three seasons.

Volstad is the most accomplished of the group and currently has 56.1 Major League innings to his credit, all having come this season. He was also the first of the quintet to be drafted at 16th overall by Florida. The sinker-slider specialist spend about three seasons in the minor leagues before making his MLB debut in 2008. In 10 games, he has posted a 3.20 ERA with 53 hits allowed, 26 walks and 37 strikeouts. Low strikeout rates have plagued Volstad throughout his minor league career (6.20 K/9 career), but the 6’8” right-hander gets a good downward plane on the ball and induced two ground ball outs for every fly ball out this season at Double-A. His fastball can reach the mid-90s when he needs it to.

Pawelek is a sad story. Blessed with immense natural talent, the right-hander has rarely been motivated in pro ball and has been disciplined numerous times by the Chicago Cubs organization, which drafted him 20th overall in 2005. Pawelek was most recently sent home early for the season after failing to acquire a passport in a timely manner for a trip to Canada. Despite solid numbers in his first two pro seasons, Pawelek has spent parts of four seasons in short season ball. He may finally be out of chances with the Cubs.

Thompson was the second high school pitcher selected by the Marlins in the top 35 draft choices. He does not possess the same stuff as Volstad, but Thompson was considered more polished coming out of high school and had better command and control. However, he has not advanced quite as quickly as Volstad. The left-handed has struggled this year in Double-A by posting an ERA of 5.62 in 16 starts. He has allowed 111 hits in 81.2 innings to go along with 40 walks and 53 strikeouts. Thompson’s biggest problem is that when he’s off, he’s really off. In his last 10 starts, he has had four games where he has allowed 39 hits and 25 runs in 15.1 innings. He will look to make up for lost time with a stint in the Arizona Fall League.

Chaz Roe was nabbed with the 32nd overall pick by the Colorado Rockies. He has moved at a steady pace and spent most of the season at Double-A despite beginning the year in High-A ball. Like Thompson, Roe will also spend time pitching in the Arizona Fall League. In 16 Double-A starts, the 6’5” righty has allowed 98 hits and 34 walks in 105.1 innings. He has also struck out 70 batters. Like Volstad, Roe has yet to strike out a lot of batters, given his good stuff, but he does induce his fair share of ground balls (1.6 ground ball outs per fly ball outs) at Double-A.

Tucker was Mr. Dead Red coming out of high school. He had an excellent fastball but not a whole lot more. His fastball was good enough to dominate Double-A hitters this year, but not Major Leaguers. At the lower lever, Tucker posted a 1.58 ERA in 91 innings with 37 walks and 74 strikeouts. At the Major League level, Tucker has posted an 8.39 ERA with 42 hits allowed in 34.1 innings, along with 22 walks and 26 strikeouts. Major Leaguers have simply sat on his fastball, which is one of the reasons why some scouts have projected Tucker to be a big league reliever since his prep days.

It’s always fun to watch prospects diverge from a draft class.

There are only two major league hitters right now with a WPA of 2.00 or above that have single-digit home run marks: Joe Mauer (8) and Brian Roberts (9). Mauer gets plenty of pub regardless of his power outages but it seems that Roberts is still considered a “fluke” due to his great 2005 season that is yet to be matched. Following that tremendous campaign he had a disappointing 2006, which saw his OPS drop almost 200 points, and I’m not sure he has regained any of his reputation since that disappointment.

Last year he improved upon that 2006 season, and this year, has seemingly improved even moreso, as his OPS is the highest it has been since that all-star year. Oddly enough, his strikeout rate is the highest it has ever been, and he is walking at a rate less than last year. The increase in his percentage of hits per at-bat—a “technical” way of saying batting average—has kept his OBP virtually idential to last year.

While he has only hit 9 home runs, he still hits the ball hard, evidenced by his league-leading 46 doubles and 8 triples. The Orioles must possess a doubles-mindset, as teammates Aubrey Huff and Nick Markakis find themselves #2 and #5 in the two-bagger category. Roberts is also fifth in the AL in stolen bases, a skill at which he has been adept even whilst others were digressing.

His defense is a different story. The plus/minus system has numbers for him from 2006 until now, and he appears to be in full-decline mode. In 2006, he was a +7 defender; last year, at 0, he was the average second baseman; and this year he is -6, so below average. While someone like Chase Utley puts up great offensive numbers and leads the league defensively, Roberts’ true value is likely going to be masked because many fantasy leagues do not count defense, and the vast majority of fans use offense as their sole evaluative factor anyway. Though his WPA is a nice 2.36, and he has been 1.58 wins above average from a context-neutral perspective, these are offensive measures; his defense would drag them down.

Lastly, curious to see how Roberts fared in comparison to fellow second basemen and the rest of the league, I looked at the skills assessment page on Bill James Online, and found the following:

Skill           MLB      2B
Running         95th     93rd
Discipline      88th     96th
Average         86th     87th
Power           36th     63rd
Fielding        N/A      59th

His baserunning, plate discipline, and ability to hit for average appear to be exemplary, but he is not a power hitting keystone cornerman in the general sense of the term, and his fielding has been bad enough to not even earn him a percentile in the all-players category. Roberts is a fine player, and he has helped the Orioles not be dreadful this year, but their desire to trade him should make a bit more sense now.

Stephen Drew and Adrian Beltre are pretty similar players. Both are fairly aggressive hitters (Beltre has a career 0.44 BB/K rate, while Drew is at 0.46) with some power (heading into Monday, Beltre’s ISO this year is .186, while Drew’s is .180). Drew plays SS like a 3B while Beltre plays 3B like an SS. They’re not clones, but as far as baseball players go, they aren’t that different.

So, it’s fitting that on the day when Drew became the third player in Diamondbacks history to hit for the cycle, Beltre would follow a few hours later by becoming the fourth player in Mariner history to accomplish the same feat. Both even racked up five hits, though Drew had a pair of doubles while Beltre doubled up on the single.

So, which cycle helped their team more?

Drew racked up .396 worth of WPA, led by his first double of the night. In the seventh inning of a tie game and a runner on, his two base hit set the stage for the D’Backs to take the lead – the leverage index for that play was 2.30, so he gets a nice clutch bonus for coming through when the team certainly needed a run.

Beltre accumulated .387 WPA, and because he just wants to be like Stephen, he also doubled with a runner on first in a tie game in the 7th inning. The score was even identical in both games (6-6), and just like Arizona, the Mariners went on to take the lead on an ensuing single.

It was only the second time in baseball history that two players have ever hit for the cycle on the same day. It hadn’t happened in 88 years, and it will probably be 88 years before we ever see it again. The fact that the two players had such similar games, and are such similar players, just makes it all the more interesting.

In an effort to counteract the usage of lefthanded relievers in the White Sox bullpen, Terry Francona opted to bat second baseman Dustin Pedroia cleanup this weekend. As odd or funny as it sounds—even prompting Ozzie Guillen to mention it is the first time he ever IBB’d a “jockey”—Pedroia in the cleanup spot is not an absolutely ridiculous idea. Having played just about every game for the Red Sox, last year’s Rookie of the Year winner is hitting .326/.373/.488, good for an .861 OPS. For the record, masher Carlos Pena’s OPS is .865.

Pedroia’s BABIP of .337 is essentially no different than last year’s .334, however his Isolated Power has seen a big jump. Last year’s .125 has jumped to a .161, thanks in large part to his 15 longballs.

Since June 12, he has been especially hot. In the 67 games during that span, just about half of his season, he has hit .384/.426/.598, for a 1.022 OPS. Additionally, 11 of those 15 home runs have come in that span, and Ozzie Guillen was quoted as saying he would rather face David Ortiz at this point than Pedroia. On the year, Pedroia’s 2.63 WPA leads all second baseman, though his 1.56 WPA/LI ranks sixth. This provides valid explanation that he has been clutch this year, as his performance has risen in crucial situations.

He has that look of an Eckstein-gritmaster, but don’t let it fool you… this guy can hit. He doesn’t like hitting cleanup and will likely find his way back to the top of the order when Kevin Youkilis is at 100%, but the way Dustin’s hitting, he isn’t too far off the slugging reputation that accompanies the #4 spot in a lineup.

On a sidenote, Pedroia’s potential right-side-of-the-infield partner, Lars Anderson, was interviewed this weekend at Fire Brand of the American League. To read the interview, click here.

Player agent Scott Boras has been in the news a lot lately, with controversy surrounding the legitimacy of the signings of 2008 first round draft picks Pedro Alvarez and Eric Hosmer. You may be asking yourself, for the 15th or 16th time, why teams even bother to deal with Boras clients. Simply put, he represents some of the best talent in professional baseball, including soon-to-be pros.

On of those amateur clients, Julio Borbon, flew under the radar a little bit before the 2007 draft, thanks in part to his allegiance to Boras, as well as a poorly-timed ankle injury that ruined a good portion of his junior season. Despite that, the Texas Rangers still made Borbon a supplemental first round selection (35th overall) out of the University of Tennessee and signed the Dominican Republic native to Major League contract, complete with an $800,000 signing bonus. Only Boras could finagle a Major League contract for a player drafted outside the first round after coming off a poor season.

Borbon signed late in the 2007 season and managed to appear in just nine regular season games. In 37 at-bats, the speedy outfielder hit .189/.250/.216 with just one extra base hit and three stolen bases. Well, the real Borbon stood up this year. He was advanced to High-A ball to begin the season and hit .306/.346/.395 with two homers and 36 stolen bases in 291 at-bats. Borbon was then promoted to Double-A where he proceeded to hit .332/.371/.457 with five homers and 16 stolen bases in 247 at-bats.

The downside to Borbon is that his running game has shown some holes with him getting caught 11 times in 27 attempts at Double-A, but he has still stolen 52 bases on the season. He also has just 27 walks this season, which is far too few for a slash-and-dash, lead-off type hitter. The left-handed hitter is doing OK against southpaws at the Double-A level with a .281 average but his slugging average dips 100 points and he has yet to take a walk in that situation.

Borbon has quietly flown under the radar for more than a year now, but that is surely going to change soon. He could be making good on the Major League contract before you know it… Perhaps even before the Alvarez/Hosmer mess is settled.

CC Sabathia continued his National League dominance yesterday with a one-hit shutout against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The hit, which came in the fifth inning, was a little squibber back to the mound off the bat of recently acquired Andy LaRoche. Sabathia left the mound and went to make the seemingly routine play, but bobbled the ball and decided any further effort would be futile. The official scorer ruled the squibber a hit, and CC could no longer pitch a no-hitter.

In watching the replay several times, I firmly believe that if Sabathia fielded the ball cleanly he would have thrown LaRoche out. If Andy clearly would have beaten the throw regardless of the bobble, then I am definitely in favor of ruling the play a hit, but the bobble did seem to prevent Sabathia from completing the play.

Following the game, Brewers skipper Ned Yost looked livid as he lambasted the Pirates’ scorer for ruling the ball a hit. I thought it was such a peculiar response given that CC just pitched a one-hitter and the team had a great game. Then, a couple of hours later, the ESPN bottom line informed me that the Brewers plan on protesting the call to get it changed to an error. Their hope, I guess, is that the protest is upheld, the hit becomes an error, and Sabathia magically has a no-hitter.

While I mentioned earlier that I agree the play probably deserved an error as he would have thrown the baserunner out had he not bobbled the ball, I am almost as livid as Yost that they would even attempt this ridiculous move. You cannot just change the past without considering actions from that step forward. Say Sabathia does get charged with an error there… it does not guarantee that the rest of the game plays out exactly the way it did. Perhaps the next inning he gives up a double and a home run. Perhaps he pulls his groin and has to leave the game in the seventh inning. Perhaps the pressure of sustaining a no-hitter would mount and get to CC; or, adversely, perhaps the Pirates hitters would “try harder” in an attempt to avoid being no-hit.

The possibilities are endless, but the point remains that you cannot just magically change one event in a game after the fact and expect that everything else would remain the same. Those who saw that Ashton flick know what I’m talking about. This is very similar to when announcers allude to the fact that if a certain run scored earlier in the game, their team would lead by two instead of one going into the ninth; as if they think everything else would have remained the same. What if that run did score earlier, and led to a big rally? Or, what if the run did score, and then the opposition came out and scored four of their own.

All of these are hypotheticals, but they all point to the fact that you simply cannot change what you do not know. You cannot change the call from hit to an error and then award Sabathia a no-hitter because you have no idea exactly what would have happened from that point on had the ruling been different. Maybe it would have stayed the same, but since we do not know it would not be prudent to guess. I’m sure this protest will be denied, as I’m not the only one who will find it ridiculous, but is this really what the Brewers are concerned about at this point?

Or, maybe they are just taking the Michael Jordan approach right now… you know, where MJ used to get so bored that he would stir something up or purposely take a facial gesture the wrong way to motivate himself. Maybe the Brewers are so used to Sabathia dominating the NL already and are bored by it that they need to find a way to keep the themselves pumped up. I honestly have no idea, but I do know that attempting to get a hit from the fifth inning turned into an error in order to give someone a no-hitter, after the fact, even though nobody knows what would have happened from that point on, is utterly ridiculous.