On August 23rd, the Diamondbacks beat the Marlins to improve their record to 68-61, taking a three game lead over the Dodgers with 33 games to play. They had acquired Adam Dunn a couple of weeks earlier to counteract the Dodgers pickup of Manny Ramirez, and their pitching staff had the look of a potential World Series champ. Things were going well in the dessert.

Since that day, Arizona is 3-13, now trail the Dodgers by 3.5 games in the standings, and have about a one in 10 chance of even making the playoffs. This isn’t some stretch of bad luck, either; Arizona has been getting their tails kicked. The last two and a half weeks have been a total disaster – everything that could go wrong has gone wrong.

In those 16 games, the defense has allowed 91 runs, or 5.69 RA/G. Opposing batters are hitting .305/.379/.488 against the Snakes, and it’s not just the supporting cast letting down the rest of the team.

Dan Haren, the big off-season acquisition that gave the D’Backs two all-stars in their rotation, has managed just 21 innings in his four starts during the stretch, putting 39 men on base and allowing 14 of them to score. The D’backs have lost all four games he’s started during this collapse.

He’s been better than Brandon Webb, however. Webb’s made three starts, managed only 13 2/3 innings, put 34 men on base, and allowed 21 of them to score. That’s a 13.82 RA/9, which is just miserable. Webb has gone from a favorite for the Cy Young award to a guy whose health is certainly in question – it’s hard to imagine a guy with his consistent success being this bad without being hurt. Not surprisingly, the D’backs have lost all three games he’s started as well.

We can’t just blame the pitchers, though – they’ve clearly missed Orlando Hudson, both in the field and at the plate. David Eckstein was acquired to help replace him, but he’s 4 for 26 since coming over to the NL, good for a .361 OPS. That’s not helping, and the struggles of guys like Eckstein, Conor Jackson, and Auguie Ojeda are a significant part of the reason that Arizona has only scored 50 runs during this stretch. If you’re giving up 5.69 runs per game, your offense has to do better than 3.1 runs per game, or you’re going to get beat a lot.

It’s going to be tough for Arizona to bounce back from the hole they’ve dug for themselves, and if they can’t figure out how to get Webb and Haren going again, they don’t have a prayer.

As Eric pointed out in his post last night in regards to the 2003 Eastern League All Star Game’s South Division roster, not many of the players went on to great – or even average – careers.

As I did with my post yesterday regarding the North Division roster, I am going to take a quick look at a few of the players who basically fell off the map after their All-Star appearances.

Scott Ackerman (Expos) was a defensive-minded catcher who found out pretty quickly that he could not hit pitching above Single-A baseball. Oddly, be made the All-Star team in his one and only season above A-ball despite hitting just .223/.263/.360 on the year with 17 walks in 292 at-bats.

Josh McKinley (Expos) was considered a bit of a reach as the 11th overall pick out of a Pennsylvania high school in the 1998 draft. He had just one OK offensive season in the minors (2003 with a line of .288/.367/.467 ). McKinley tried to extend his playing career by playing a multitude of positions but he spent just one more season in the minors – at Double-A split between the Montreal and Texas organizations – before hanging it up for good due to injury.

Juan Richardson (Phillies) was once considered a promising, “toolsy” prospect, who was signed out of the Dominican Republic. The third baseman never fully embraced the “patient approach” and was mostly an all-or-nothing type player who came up with nothing.

Jeff Inglin (Phillies) was originally drafted by the Chicago White Sox in the 16th round of the 1996 draft out of USC. Oddly, he put up solid power, patience, speed numbers, with decent batting averages, for seven seasons with the Chicago organization but did not sniff the Majors. He drove in 100 runs or more twice, stole 30 bases once and hit 24 homers with 72 walks in Double-A at the age of 23. He signed with the Phillies organization as a minor league free agent and made the Double-A All-Star team at the age of 27 after spending parts of three seasons in Triple-A. Inglin hung around Double-A for two more seasons with two other organizations and then walked away from his playing career.

Jeremy Ware (Expos) was a former Canadian Olympian who was never able to hit for a high average in the minor leagues, due in part to a lack of patience at the plate. He eventually found his way to independent league baseball. His Double-A All-Star appearance came in his fifth season of Double-A at the age of 27.

Josh Karp (Expos)… Are you noticing a theme here? No. 1, there were a lot of Expos prospects in this All-Star game; and No. 2, a lot of them turned out to be failed prospects. Karp was the sixth overall selection of the 2001 draft out of UCLA but had his pro career ruined by injuries. It also did not help that he was over-hyped coming out of his junior season of college.

Homero Rivera (Tigers) was another selection to the All-Star squad that left you wondering: “What were they thinking?” The Dominican southpaw had a K/9 rate of just 6.65 in his career as a middle reliever. In 2003, his last full season in the minors, Rivera vultured 13 wins in 72.2 innings but allowed 76 hits and posted a K/9 rate of just 4.46.

We all know predicting the next great player is no easy task for fans, writers and analysts, and it certainly is not any easier for the baseball minds that select minor league All-Star teams.

One of the issues of analysis Dave and I have discussed here numerous times is that defensive value must also be taken into account when evaluating a player. Without understanding what a player does for his team in the field, it is impossible to accurately evaluate him. Defense might not be as sexy as offense in the traditional evaluative sense, but it is very important. Which brings us to Yunel Escobar, the 25-yr old shortstop of the Atlanta Braves, who looked so good offensively in his rookie campaign last season, that Edgar Renteria suddenly became expendable.

In 94 games during that 2007 season, Escobar splashed onto the scene with a .326/.385/.451 slash line, and a 1.45 WPA/LI. He didn’t strike out or walk a ton, but posted a .367 BABIP that aided his line. Not to say he couldn’t continue to post higher BABIPs but we really knew nothing about his capabilities. In the field, the +- system had him at 0, meaning he was essentially the average fielding shortstop last year. Granted, he did not have a full season’s worth of chances, but last year’s numbers suggested he was a very solid hitter who would not necessarily hurt the team defensively, but would merely get the job done.

This year, things have seemingly reversed. In 128 games, he appears to be in a sophomore slump of sorts, hitting .286/.363/.395. His walk rate has risen from 7.8% to 10.2%, and he is striking out less as well, but the BABIP has dipped significantly to .312. His percentage of line drives has decreased, with an increase in the already very high groundball rate and the flyball rate. Primarily a groundball hitter, his 2.44 GB/FB last year has become a 2.37 rate this year. All of this has resulted in a -0.04 WPA/LI, which is extremely close to 0.00, making it safe to say he has been about an average hitter this year.

His defense, however, has been anything but average, as the +- system pegs him at +25, making him statistically the best fielding shortstop in baseball this year, nine plays ahead of second-place JJ Hardy. Last year, Escobar was a well-above average hitter and the average fielder. This year, he is the average hitter and a well-above average fielder. The problem is that next to nobody pays attention to the defensive side of evaluation, so he just appears to be in a sophomore slump or a decline. If he can sustain the solid defense, or at least some semblance of it, even if just half of the +25, and contribute at the pace he did offensively last year, the Braves will have one heck of a shortstop moving forward. Next year will be important for him as we’ll understand more about his true talent level both offensively and defensively.

Pitcher Batter/Runner Outs Base Score Play
Mike Timlin Carlos Pena 2 12_ 1-4 Home Run

At 11:45 pm eastern time, Carlos Pena took a Mike Timlin fastball over the Green Monster for a three run home run, breaking a 1-1 tie in the 14th inning at Fenway Park. With that home run, the Rays were able to go on and take two of three from the Red Sox and open up a 2 1/2 game lead over Boston in the AL East.

In terms of making the playoffs, the series didn’t matter all that much, as the wild card makes this pennant race mostly irrelevant. The loser of the AL East race will still qualify for postseason baseball, and while I’m sure both teams want to win the division, the stakes aren’t as high as they might be without the wild card.

However, for Tampa Bay fans, it’s hard to overestimate just how much fun those games were. As a Mariner fan growing up in Seattle, 1995 was like living a movie, with walkoff wins and upsets over the teams that always came into the Kingdome and cleaned house. For Rays fans, I’m sure the late game longballs from Dan Johnson on Tuesday and Pena last night will be prominently featured in their postseason hightlight reel.

It’s things like Tampa’s emergence this year, and especially games like the last two days, that make baseball so great. No matter how bad your team is now, we’ve all got memories of improbable wins and late game heroics – I’m happy for Tampa fans that they finally get to experience the joy of meaningful wins in September.

If there’s a troubling tendency of over rated and under rated discussions it’s the nature for players that appear so often on one side or the other that they switch from being perennially under rated to over rated or vice versa. This is usually partly due to repetitive media coverage hammering a player into a certain light (that he is either under rated or over rated) and usually partly due to opinions formed that were valid at the time, but because so much time has passed, that opinion needs to be updated or has become outdated completely.

One such player that I feel has become somewhat overlooked because of an opinion formed a few years ago is Todd Helton. Starting in 2005, when Helton’s slugging dropped off a cliff, his name has been usually referenced in conjunction with his contract and usually using the terms such as untradeable or overpriced.

Because of that, Helton’s started to fly under the radar as his contract comes closer to the end. Assuming his option is declined, Helton is owed just under $57 million over the next three seasons. Because of this high amount of dollars left and the Rockies poor record this season, the rumors of Todd Helton being moved are on the rise. How viable would Helton be as a trade target in a winter that seems overloaded with aging hitting talent?

Helton’s performance is down a lot this season, but for the most part, it’s due to bad luck as his 23.4% line drive rate coupled with just a .298 BABIP suggest. With most of his core numbers intact, it’s likely that Helton’s overall skill hasn’t diminished all that much from his previous years. That would put his bat at around 30 runs over average in value.

Worth the contract? No, not even close, but if the Rockies are indeed intent on moving Helton and willing to eat some salary, then Helton might make sense to a team in the market for a first basemen with strong on base skills.

This morning I wrote about the numerous players from the North roster in the 2003 Eastern League All Star Game who have not only gone on to play in the major leagues, but as everyday regulars. Marc then discussed some of the players from the same roster who failed to live up to their prospect hype, really never making the major leagues. When looking at the South roster, listed below, you will notice that there are very few that actually made it to the major leagues, with only one standout player… hint… he might not be better than Curtis Granderson.

1. Max St. Pierre, C
2. Scott Ackerman, C
3. Jose Castillo, IF
4. Ivanon Coffie, IF
5. Mike Fontenot, IF
6. Luis Gonzalez, IF
7. Josh McKinley, IF
8. Chan Perry, IF
9. Juan Richardson
10. Shawn Garrett, OF
11. Noah Hall, OF
12. Jeff Inglin, OF
13. Grady Sizemore, OF
14. Jeremy Ware, OF
15. Taylor Buchholz, P
16. Sean Burnett, P
17. Fernando Cabrera, P
18. Kyle Denney, P
19. Brian Forystek, P
20. Mike Johnston, P
21. Josh Karp, P
22. Seung Lee, P
23. Homero Rivera, P
24. Brian Schmack, P

Of these players, most baseball fans will have heard of Castillo, Sizemore, Fontenot, Buchholz, Burnett, and that’s it. Fernando Cabrera has also seen his fair share of playing time, pitching out of the Cleveland bullpen for the last several years, but it is definitely clear that this group produced not just less major leaguers, but less everyday or solid players. Sizemore is an all-star, will be an all-star, and is one of the top commodities in the game of baseball. Outside of him, on this list, the players are not too impressive.

Castillo spent 2004-2007 with the Pirates, playing third base, before splitting time between Houston and San Francisco this year. His best WPA/LI came in 2005, at -0.97. With such poor offensive numbers, he would need to have a great glove to stay around, right? Well, according to the +- system, Castillo was a -15 in 2006 at 2B, just about 0 in 2007, all told, and a -6 this year. How he still has a job is a question I just cannot answer.

Sean Burnett debuted in 2004, making 13 starts for the same Pirates. His FIP was 5.06 with a K/BB of 1.07. He spent the next few years in the minors before returning to the Pirates this year, pitching out of the bullpen. His K/9 has gone from 3.77 in 2004 to 6.80 today… however, his BB/9 has risen from 3.52 to 5.69, ultimately producing an abysmal 1.19 K/BB.

Fontenot seems to be solid for the Cubs, OPS’ing .909 in 108 games right now, so we can leave him alone. Taylor Buchholz, however, cannot be left alone. Formerly a prized prospect in the Phillies system, he was traded to the Astros as part of the Billy Wagner deal, and after a poor 2006 season in Houston, was sent to the Rockies, where he has thrived? Buchholz may have the reputation of a prospect gone wrong, but his numbers tell a different story. Last year, in 41 appearances, he posted an ERA of 4.23, a K/BB of 3.05, and an FIP of 3.75. This year, in 63 appearances, a 2.17 ERA, 3.11 K/BB, and an FIP of 3.30.

The amount of players from the South that have succeeded in the major leagues may be lesser than that of the North, but a perennial all-star in Sizemore, and a solid reliever in Buchholz are doing quite well.

As you know by now, my colleague Eric has taken a look at the players who have successfully made it to the Major Leagues from the Double-A Eastern League’s 2003 All-Star Game’s North Division roster. As a complement to that, I am going to look at a few of the players who failed to make good on their potential after that showcase.

A number of the infielders on the North Division roster failed to achieve Major League success, including Chris Basak (Mets), Craig Brazell (Mets), Mike Cervenak (Giants), Alejandro Freire (Giants), and Brian Myrow (Dodgers).

Basak was 24 at the time and his minor league numbers had been inconsistent. His overall stats at Double-A that season were not overly special (.272/.332/.396). Basak has had just one Major League at-bat, which came with the Yankees in 2007. He spent 2008 in the Yankees and Twins organizations as a back-up infielder.

Brazell was 23 at the time of the All-Star game and was considered a fairly good prospect with intriguing raw power. The former fifth round pick out of high school, though, has never been able to tap into it consistently while maintaining a decent average and respectable on-base numbers. He did make some noise in 2007 when he slugged 39 homers in the minors for the Royals. That earned him five games at the Major League level, where he recorded one hit in four at-bats. Brazell took his powerful bat to Japan in 2008.

Cervenak is an interesting story, even though he was 26 when he was selected to the All-Star Game in 2003. He was signed by the Yankees out of an independent baseball league and spent four seasons in Double-A and another four years in Triple-A before making his Major League debut this season with the Phillies at the age of 31. He appeared in eight Major League games and knocked out two hits.

Freire was another minor league veteran first baseman, who originally signed with Houston out of Venezuela. He hasn’t played in the minors since 2006. Myrow is another former independent league player, who has earned short stints in the Majors with San Diego each of the last two seasons.

Outfielder Jeremy Owens (Red Sox) and Josh Rabe (Twins) both flashed promising tools early in their careers. Owens displayed 20-20 potential, but he could never maintain a respectable average and struck out far too many times in his attempt to be Mike Cameron. Rabe has had a couple of chances at the Major League level with the Twins, but he never showed enough power for a corner outfielder.

Cameron Reimers (Blue Jays) was a pitcher who put up some nice win totals and ERAs despite having below average stuff, which caught up to him in Triple-A. He ended his minor league career two years after his All-Star appearance.

Brent Schoening (Twins) won 12 games in 2006 with average stuff at best and then went on to pitch mostly out of the bullpen in Triple-A for two seasons before hanging up his spikes. David Shepard (Yankees) and Josh Stevens (Red Sox) were relievers who spent their entire careers bouncing between independent baseball leagues and minor league baseball. Shepard last pitched in 2006, while Stevens lasted until 2007.

Kevin Vent (Giants) made the All-Star game in 2003 and received a late-season promotion to Triple-A. Sadly, the 26-year-old reliever never pitched again in the minors after that season.

Tomorrow, I’ll take a look at the 2003 South Division roster for failed prospects, after Eric looks at those who made good on their potential later tonight.

Through high school and the early parts of college, I worked as a graphics coordinator in the television truck on sporting events for the station CN8. My job involved compiling the statistics and coming up with interesting tidbits on players so that the graphics operator could make the lower-thirds you see on-screen when hitters come to the plate. In going through some of my old papers yesterday, I stumbled across the rosters we were given at the 2003 Eastern League (AA) All-Star game. As I began down the list I found numerous players who are in the big leagues today, and regulars at that. Tonight we will examine the South roster, but for now, here are the players from the North roster that have made the majors.

1. Guillermo Quiroz, BAL, -0.97 WPA/LI in 50 games for the Orioles
2. Kelly Shoppach, CLE, 0.40 WPA/LI, leads AL catchers with 17 HR
3. Jason Bartlett, TB, -1.45 WPA/LI for the Rays, an everyday regular
4. Terry Tiffee, LAD, 1-4 in 5 PA this year, 54 G for MIN in 2005
5. Kevin Youkilis, BOS, 2.41 WPA/LI, All-Star
6. Gabe Gross, TB, 0.29 WPA/LI, acquired from Brewers earlier this year
7. Alex Rios, TOR, 0.66 WPA/LI, OPS from .814-.865 last three years
8. Kevin Correia, SF, been in majors since 2003, -0.95 WPA/LI this year
9. Jorge de la Rosa, COL, -0.94 WPA/LI, 4.05 FIP
10. Neal Musser, KC, made 17 appearances at a 6.04 FIP last year, just 1 scoreless inning in 2008
11. Chien-Ming Wang, NYY, career 3.90 FIP, 9.05 WPA/LI in 3+ big league seasons

Fifty percent of the players on this North roster are currently in the major leagues, with Youkilis and Wang headlining the group. There are a few others that had cups of coffee, such as Josh Rabe, and Mike Cervanek, but I will leave it to Marc to take a look at those who have failed to capitalize on their past minor league success. I tried my hardest to remember Youkilis and Wang back in 2003, but really could not draw out any real memories. It is safe to say, though, that I did not peg one as a key driving force on a world series team, or the other as a potential Yankees ace. Tonight we’ll take a look at the South roster, where fewer players have made the big leagues, but at least one all-star stands out.

When I think of a guy who gets a lot of infield hits, a short slap hitting speed burner comes to mind. Willy Taveras, Michael Bourn, Carlos Gomez… those are the kinds of players that I think of when I imagine the league leader in infield hits. And those guys are all on the list, but they’re nowhere near the top. In fact, no one’s particularly close to the guy who has racked up 38 infield hits this year, six more than the next best guy and 13 more than the guy after that.

So who is the king of successful worm burning?

Hunter Pence.

Yes, the same Pence with 21 home runs and a career .498 slugging percentage. The same Pence who has laid down exactly one bunt in his two years in the big leagues and had 13 infield hits last season.

Pence has seen his IFH% increase by 150%, going from 7.3% last year to 17.4% this year. That infield hit rate is also the best in the majors, where he’s followed by Jason Bay and Ryan Braun.

Pence, Bay, and Braun – infield hit machines? You could have given me 1,000 guesses, and I’d have never come up with those three names. I’m sure there’s a real correlation between infield hits and speed (Ichiro doesn’t get 57 infield hits in 2004 if he runs like Prince Fielder), but there’s pretty clearly a big luck factor as well.

There’s a revolution going on this year in Florida this year and it’s happening in perhaps the most underrated aspect of baseball today. According to John Dewan’s Plus/Minus system from the Fielding Bible, the Florida Marlins and Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays were the worst two teams in baseball last season in team defense, clocking in at 88 and 107 plays below average respectively.

Using Tango’s figure of 0.8 runs per play, we come up with figures of 70 and 86 runs these defenses cost their teams’ bottom lines. Those are exceptionally damaging magnitudes. For reference, according to wOBA, Barry Bonds was worth a little over 60 runs over average back in both 2003 and in 2004. Moving their defense up to league average would be akin to removing a replacement level player from your lineup and inserting Barry Bonds from that era.

Fast forward to almost the end of 2008 and how are those teams doing now? Well, we don’t have final numbers from Dewan’s system just yet, but a similar plus/minus system, used by The Hardball Times, gives us some clues. They have the Rays at a positive 13 plays (10 runs) and the Marlins at just negative 16 plays (13 runs).

If those values hold through the end of the season, and assuming they generally reflect what Dewan’s system will report, that would represent an improvement of 57 runs for the Marlins and an astounding 96 runs for the Rays. You want a reason why the Rays have become the team they are this year? Well there’s several, but don’t you dare overlook defense. When a team can add 100 runs to it’s net runs scored – runs allowed total, that’s a huge swing in success’ direction.