During last night’s Phillies/Marlins game, I happened to catch a glimpse of a pitch released by Marlins reliever Joe Nelson, that featured such an odd grip that I had to rewind the DVR several times. I called my brother in the room to confirm I wasn’t going crazy, because Nelson’s grip on this changeup or splitter, looked like Dr. Spock’s hand signal in which the index and middle fingers have noticeable divide between the ring finger and pinky. He laughed, and said he heard the story while listening to Vin Scully a few months back, and that it was how Nelson threw his changeup.

While most people hold their changeup with three fingers or a circle-grip, Nelson holds it like a Vulcan from Star Trek. Apparently, when he warms up in the bullpen, his first action involves stretching the divide between his fingers with a golf ball. While Nelson served up a three-run longball to Jayson Werth in last night’s affair, he has been pretty nasty out of the pen for the Fish this year.

After four surgeries in ten years, Nelson is in the midst of just his second full season in major league baseball. He last pitched more than, well, three games back in 2006, when he made 43 appearances for the Royals. While his numbers then were not too impressive, he has definitely gotten the job done this year. In 49 games for a very surprising and pesky Marlins team, Nelson has allowed just 33 hits in 45 innings, walking 20 and striking out 51 hitters. His ability to fan hitters has led to a 10.20 K/9, which somewhat counteracts his 4.0 BB/9 by resulting in a 2.55 K/BB.

He allows baserunners to the meager tune of a 1.18 WHIP, and, once there, 85% have been stranded. This has helped him produce a tremendous 1.80 ERA. His controllable skills have been solid—a 3.46 FIP—but nowhere near as good as that ERA would suggest. Essentially a two-pitch righty, with a 90 mph fastball 65% of the time and the vulcan taking up most of the remaining deliveries, Nelson has been a great story this year that next to nobody, inside or outside of Florida, has noticed. This might just be a career year, never again to be replicated, but after fighting his way through surgery after surgery, all to make it to the big leagues, Joe Nelson has definitely delivered.

There are two talented catchers in the upper levels of the minor leagues and both of those players were selected in the first round of the 2007 draft. Matt Wieters was recently named the Minor League Player of the Year by Baseball America, while J.P. Arencibia is not far behind in the discussion of the best catching prospects in baseball.

Matt Wieters | Baltimore Orioles
Ht: 6-4, Wt: 230
Born: May 1986
Drafted: 2007 fifth overall, Georgia Tech

Wieters does it all very well: He hits, he plays defence and he leads by example. The hulking catcher did not play pro ball in his draft year due to signing late but he began 2008 in High-A ball. He hit .345/.448/.576 with 15 homers in 229 at-bats. Wieters was then promoted to Double-A where he performed even better. He hit .365/.460/.625 with 12 homers in 208 at-bats. The switch-hitter batted .393 against southpaws and .354 versus right-handers. Overall on the season, Wieters walked 82 times with 76 strikeouts. Defensively, he nailed 40 percent of base runners attempting to steal. He also made nine errors with three passed balls.

J.P. Arencibia | Toronto Blue Jays
Ht: 6-1, Wt: 210
Born: January 1986
Drafted: 2007 21st overall, University of Tennessee

One of the biggest differences between the two players is Arencibia’s lack of patience, especially compared to Wieters’. The Jays prospect walked just 18 times on the season with 101 strikeouts in 510 combined at-bats. Even so, Arencibia hit .315/.344/.560 with 13 homers in 248 High-A at-bats. He was then promoted to Double-A where he hit .282/.302/.496 with 14 homers in 262 at-bats. Overall, he drove in 105 runs. Arencibia has more raw power potential than Wieters, but the Orioles catcher is the superior hitter at this point. Arencibia is also still a little rough around the edges when it comes to catching (10 errors, 15 passed balls), although he did throw out 34 percent of base stealers.

The Jays are sending Arencibia to the Arizona Fall League specifically to work on his patience at the plate and they do not care how well he hits as long as he works the count to his advantage. Wieters has also been sent to the Arizona Fall League, which is a little puzzling considering his already-solid skills and the long season that he endured during his first pro season. A regular full season of minor league baseball is already much longer than a college season, especially when a player is squatted down behind home plate. But that said, a little extra hard work never hurt anybody.

Last night, Eric detailed the virtues of Max Scherzer and laid out the case for why he should be a member of the D’backs rotation. This morning, I’ll expand on that a bit, using a graph of the Pitch F/x data from his Sunday start to look at what he was throwing at the Dodgers.

The first thing to notice is that there are way more little dots above the 95 line than there are below. He was throwing some serious cheese on Sunday. His average fastball was 96.1 MPH, and he sustained it for 94 pitches. His last fastball of the night clocked in at 97.1 – not exactly the telltale sign of a guy who was fatigued.

Scherzer wasn’t exactly interested in changing speeds, either. As Eric noted, he throws the fastball a lot, and Sunday was no exception. 63 of the 92 pitches that Pitch F/x registered were fastballs – Scherzer’s modus operendi is apparently “hit it if you can”, because he’s not messing around with secondary pitches all that often.

That isn’t to say those pitches aren’t any good, however. Scherzer got 21 swinging strikes in the game on Sunday, but 9 of them came on either his slider or his change-up. Considering he only threw 29 offspeed pitches (if you can call an 88 MPH slider an offspeed pitch), getting 9 swinging strikes is fantastic. He loves his fastball, and rightfully so, but the slider and change both have their uses. The slider, especially, can be a knockout pitch against right-handed hitters.

The key to Scherzer sticking in the rotation will be the development of that change-up. Like most RH pitchers with terrific fastball/slider combinations, he’s already death to right-handed hitters – they’re hitting just .160/.261/.222 against him this year. However, those pitches aren’t nearly as effective against left-handed hitters, and the numbers bare that out – LH hitters are hitting .322/.406/.424 against Scherzer.

On Sunday, Scherzer only threw 4 change-ups in the 39 pitches he threw LH hitters. He clearly doesn’t trust it yet, but if he’s going to stay in the rotation, he’s going to have to have at least a serviceable change that he can mix in against lefties. Otherwise, you’ll just see teams stacking the line-up with LH bats and getting a pretty huge platoon advantage.

His audition for the rotation went very well, but he showed both the reason why Arizona should be both thrilled about his abilities but also aware of his current limitations.

As we get entrenched in September baseball, we’ve narrowed it down to just a few teams that still harbor rational playoff hopes. In the American League we have Boston, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Chicago and Anaheim. Unless something crazy happens, Boston, Tampa and Anaheim are in and it’s a playoff for the Central division crown between Chicago and Minnesota to determine the fourth team. Either way we have two teams returning from last season’s October and two new entrants.

Over in the National League things are a bit murkier. The Cubs are nearly a lock and right now Milwaukee looks solidly in as well, though their lead on the Wild Card isn’t as sacrosanct as Boston’s is in the junior circuit. Arizona and Los Angeles are fighting it out for the West division and that’s a winner take all prize because the loser has no chance at sneaking in with the Wild Card. Between New York and Philadelphia in the East, there’s a slim, but not insignicant chance that both could get in if they rattle off some wins and Milwaukee falters. Six teams are still in it, three of whom joined us for postseason play last year.

Beyond that, what is still very much in the air are the playoff seedings. Back to the American League, the winner between the Twins and White Sox is likely to end up with the third seed, and because of the rule that the Wild Card team cannot play a team in its own division in the first round, Anaheim’s final record doesn’t matter at all (opponent-wise) provided they finish ahead of the Central champ. Instead, it all comes down to whether the Rays can hold off the Red Sox for the Eastern lead. If so, regardless of the overall record (again, provided it’s better than MIN/CHA) they’ll face the Central winner and Anaheim and Boston will face off. If instead Boston grabs the division lead then the Rays and Angels will square off.

In the National League, the Cubs are almost certain to nab the top overall seed and most likely the Brewers are going to nab the Wild Card, which creates the same conflict as in the American League and means the Cubs are off to face the NL West winner (which is actually better for them) while the Brewers will get the NL East champ. Of course, if Milwaukee stumbles and the Wild Card comes out of the East, then that team will head to Chicago and the NL East and West winners face off.

It’s worth pointing out that we’re going to be getting at least three new teams in the playoffs for this year which is a healthy turnover. For those teams that are now comfortably (relatively, no fan is likely entirely comfortable until their team has clinched) in the playoffs, these are the races worth following. As we all know, anything can happen in the playoffs and even more so, anything can happen in a best-of-five series.

Last week, Dave previewed the important Dodgers-Diamondbacks series by discussing the three great pitching matchups on tap. Dan Haren vs. Derek Lowe, Brandon Webb vs. Chad Billingsley, and Randy Johnson vs. Clayton Kershaw. Well, the Big Unit was scratched from yesterday’s start, paving the way for rookie Max Scherzer to step in. Scherzer, the 24-yr old flamethrowing prospect, had success earlier in the season, however, the return of Doug Davis relegated him to the bullpen, before he was eventually sent back to AAA when the Snakes needed a more durable reliever.

Johnson used to be a flamethrower, as well, arguably staking claim as the best left-handed power pitcher of all time, but it seems the torch of heat may be passing to Scherzer. Now, I’m not saying Max is a hall of famer or anything along those lines, but he definitely deserves a spot in this Diamondbacks rotation. Personal affinities aside—Max and I speak routinely through e-mail as he is very into sabermetrics—his mere 13 appearances this year, 4 of which were starts, have produced a WPA/LI of 0.44. Mark Buehrle’s is 0.50, as is John Lannan’s. Joe Blanton, the supposed answer to the Phillies rotation troubles, has been worth just 0.37 wins above an average pitcher.

In 39 innings this season, he has surrendered just 32 hits, only two of which are home runs. His controllable skills only get better, as his 45 strikeouts and 15 walks translate to a 10.38 K/9 and a 3.00 K/BB ratio. Of balls put in play, an exorbitant 31.2% have been line drives, which means his .316 BABIP is much lower perhaps than what should be expected, but this will not persist and can be expected to even out at some point.

Looking at his Pitch F/X data, he throws his 94.4 mph fastball 72.3% of the time, with 7.01 horizontal inches of movement and 8.76 vertical inches. His slider is thrown 15% of the time, with the changeup accounting for most of the leftover. His changeup looks particularly effective, too, as it comes in almost a full 10 mph slower, at 84.8 mph. Additionally, he has essentially sustained the horizontal movement from his fastball, but lessened the vertical movement, meaning it will not “rise” as much as his heater. Whether in the rotation or temporarily working out of the bullpen, Scherzer needs to be in the big leagues. If he has the capability to miss bats like he does at the major league level, being in AAA serves no purpose.

To read my interview with Max, in which he explains his relationship with sabermetrics and analysis, and how it pertains to him as a pitcher, click here.

Despite the Indians poor season, I believe there’s a pretty decent case to be made that Grady Sizemore has been the best player in the American League this year. He’s already gone 30-30 while playing a nifty center field, and his 3.09 WPA/LI is the best in the AL for an up-the-middle player. Ask pretty much anyone who the best CF in the AL is, and they’ll tell you it’s Sizemore.

They might not be right, however. I think, at some point, we have to consider whether Curtis Granderson might be the superior ballplayer right now (though the time he spent on the DL hurts his MVP chances). He doesn’t get the notoriety that Sizemore does, but he’s been an elite player for two years now. Here are some comparative graphs.

Sizemore was much better in 2006, but the last two years, Granderson has been as good or arguably better. He’s compiled 5.84 WPA/LI over 1,088 at-bats while Sizemore has racked up 5.31 WPA/LI over 1,176 at-bats. Despite playing a bit less, Granderson’s been more valuable offensively even on a counting stat basis. On a per at-bat basis, it hasn’t even been close.

We can’t ignore 2006, however. It happened, and it still matters. The up-to-date Marcel projections, which include the last three years of data, have Sizemore’s true talent level as at .284/.380/.503 and Granderson at .294/.372/.493. Very close, but a slight edge to Sizemore, thanks to the difference between their 2006 performances.

Both are considered to be quality defensive center fielders, and both have posted strong defensive numbers over the years. Granderson’s running a -10 in the Fielding Bible’s +/- system this year, but he was +20 last year and +12 the year before, so that’s probably just an outlier. Scouts love his defense, and until this year, the numbers had agreed. There’s no reason to believe that he’s suddenly turned into a problem with the glove.

So, if they’re basically equal offensively in true talent level, with Granderson being better the last two years, and there’s no compelling evidence to believe that Sizemore is superior defensively, how can we justify the belief that Sizemore is clearly the best CF in the AL?

I’m not saying Granderson’s definitely better, but I do think there’s a real argument to be made that he’s every bit as good as his more famous peer down in Cleveland.

Money may not buy happiness, but it does allow you the flexibility to take some risks. The New York Yankees have taken a few gambles in recent years during the annual amateur draft. The most-publicized risk was drafting North Carolina State right-hander Andrew Brackman (and paying him $3.35 million), who needed Tommy John surgery before he would even throw one professional pitch.

Another move one year earlier, though, that flew under the radar was drafting college reliever Mark Melancon out of the University of Arizona. Melancon was widely considered the best – and most advanced – college reliever in the draft. But he was suffering from a strained elbow ligament, and whispers of Tommy John surgery persisted.

Melancon fell out of the first round of the draft and was snapped up by the Yankees with the 284th selection in the ninth round. The Yankees gave him third round money ($600,000) and sent him to the New York Penn League. Melancon had not pitched since April due to the elbow injury and he lasted just 6.2 innings in pro ball before being shut down to go under the knife.

The 2007 season was a year of rehab for the right-hander but he came back strong in 2008. Melancon began the season in High-A ball and allowed 26 hits and six walks in 25.1 innings of work. He also struck out 20. Melancon was then promoted to Double-A where he worked 49.2 innings and allowed 32 hits and 12 walks. He also struck out 47 and induced two groundball outs for every flyball out. Melancon then finished out the regular season in Triple-A. He allowed just 11 hits and four walks in 20 innings. He struck out 22 batters.

Overall, in his first season back from surgery, Melancon was 8-1 with a 2.27 ERA in 95 innings. He allowed 69 hits and just 22 walks, which is impressive considering command is supposed to be the last thing that returns after Tommy John surgery. It’s clear Melancon is close to being a large part of the future of the Yankees’ bullpen.

*The 2006 draft was a huge help to the Yankees’ pitching depth, as the organization also scooped up Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain, Zach McAllister, George Kontos, Dellin Betances and Daniel McCutchen.

When the Mets traded for Johan Santana and promptly signed him to a six year contract extension, I was one of few Phillies fans actually excited that their rivals had just acquired arguably the best pitcher in the game. My sentiment was that, come September, I could not wait for a Santana vs. Cole Hamels matchup with the division potentially on the line; two of the league’s best lefties, with the best two changeups in baseball, squaring off with the collective fanbase of each team hanging onto every pitch. You can imagine that when Sunday’s game was moved to 8 pm EST, to be the ESPN national Sunday Night Game, everything I looked forward to before the season had gone to that next level.

What occurred, however, was a pretty one-sided beating in which the score did not tell the whole story. The Mets may have won 6-3, but the deficit seemed much larger than that, as the Phillies failed to do anything against Johan Santana for virtually the entire game. Hamels pitched poorly, giving Carlos Delgado’s much-publicized book some great notes to add, and the Phillies failed to put the finishing touches on a sweep that would have put them in a tie for first place.

With 19 games to play, the Mets are in the driver’s seat with a two game lead. Last year, with 17 games remaining, the Mets led by 7 games and managed to lose the division. One of the primary reasons for that collapse was a sweep at the hands of the Phillies, which directly loosened their divisional grip by three games. Unlike then, the Phillies and Mets are now finished playing each other for the season, which means the division will be decided by how they fare against their remaining opponents.

The Phillies start a three game set with the Marlins tonight, before playing the Brewers for four. Following that seven game homestand, they go to Atlanta and then Florida for three games each, before returning home to finish the year out against the Braves and Nationals. All told, they have 3 against the Nationals, 4 against the Brewers, 6 against the Marlins, and 6 against the Braves. The Mets, on the other hand, have 3 against the Marlins, 4 against the Cubs, 6 against the Nationals, and 6 against the Braves. It seems that the division will be decided by which team fares the best against potential NL East spoilers and the top-tier NL Central teams. Or, the Marlins could win all six against the Phillies and all three against the Mets and win the division.

This September might not have the exact makings of 2007, but it still has the potential to be a very fun and intense stretch of 19 games. Throw in the close proximity between the DBacks-Dodgers and Twins-White Sox and there are three potential divisions that could be decided over the last few games.

Back in May, we noticed that Nelson Cruz was blistering the baseball in the PCL and deserved another shot in the major leagues. The Rangers didn’t have any problems scoring runs, though, so Cruz stayed in Triple-A for most of the season, only finally getting back to Texas on August 25th.

He’s doing his best to show the world that he really should have been up months ago. In 46 at-bats since his return, Cruz is hitting .326/.404/.609, showing that his monstrous performance in Oklahoma wasn’t a fluke. He’s always been able to hit a fastball a long way, but with his more selective approach at the plate, Cruz is a bonafide major league hitter.

Despite the solid performances from Marlon Byrd, David Murphy, and Brandon Boggs, not to mention that Hamilton kid, the Rangers need to find room for Cruz in their line-up. Yes, Texas’ offense is already awesome, but sometimes the easiest way to improve a ballclub is not to address the glaring weakness – there’s not a cap on runs scored, and having Cruz’s bat in the line-up will help make up for the fact that they still can’t pitch and his teammates can’t field.

It looks like Cruz is going to play pretty much everyday the rest of the year, and hopefully, Texas will realize that their best line-up going forward has Nelson Cruz in it everyday.

We can rationally tell ourselves that small sample sizes have to be taken with caution (and they do), but no matter how much we believe that to be true, they will still affect us. It’s a byproduct of a psychological bias known as anchoring and for the most part it’s extremely difficult to avoid falling victim to. The aspect of anchoring (or focalism as it’s also known) that we must be aware of for baseball purposes is sometimes referred to as the adjustment problem. In a nutshell, the adjustment problem is when you are asked to make a value judgment on something. Almost without fail, your brain will go back to some previously heard value and adjust from there. Basically, it’s letting an extremely (and sometimes completely irrelevant) small sample hold a sway over your perception and it’s tough to avoid.

What I am specifically getting at is performances in April and how they influence opinions of players for the rest of the year. A hot start in April establishes a baselines of performance at a high level and probably gets mentioned a lot in the media. From that point forward, no matter how well that player performs, unless you are intimately familiar with the player’s performance, your first instinct is to go back to those numbers you were hearing about in April and adjust from there. This is similarly true for cold starts. All that’s needed is for the performance to be extreme enough to get mentioned and for you to not pay that much attention to the player at other times. Need a few examples?

These aren’t going to apply for everyone, we don’t all have the same strength of bias and like I mentioned above, if you happen to follow a player day to day whether because he’s on your favorite team or rival team or fantasy team or whatever then you will not be as susceptible to the adjustment because your brain has many more data points stored away. The key is not having heard or seen a player’s stat line for awhile. For American League fans, quick, how has Miguel Tejada and Carlos Delgado’s season gone? Think of their line in your head right now. Now go click on those links and see how you did?

Most of you, if you qualify above, would have over-estimated Miguel Tejada’s line and under-estimated Carlos Delgado’s. Tejada got off to a fast start in Houston and made some news as they flirted with contention and since Tejada had come over via trade and posted a near 1.000 OPS in April. But since May 4th, Tejada has posted just a .263/.295/.367 line. Delgado has been the opposite. He sat at a meager .532 OPS on April 27th and was subject to some stories about how the hope for a bounce back from his previous year’s struggles were not to be. All Delgado has done since then is hit .274/.360/.542 and he’s now up to a .840 OPS on the year and making a case for his option to be picked up by the Mets.

A last one, this time for the National League folks. How’s Jacoby Ellsbury doing? He was in the news a lot this spring for his fast start to the year paired with the Red Sox defending title and his memorable October. Through Ellsbury’s first 28 games this season he had an .857 OPS and an impressive 17 walks to just nine strikeouts. But since then, Ellsbury is hitting just .258/.304/.347 with 66 strikeouts to just 22 walks and his season OPS is now under .700.

Beware those early numbers.