A continuation of the series of retrospectives looking back at the regular season and how teams fared. They will be presented, from first to last, in order of their run differential as given by the BaseRuns formula and adjusted for strength of schedule, which I feel is the best measurement of a team’s actual talent level.

Number Thirteen: Anaheim Angels

Checking in at number 13 is our final playoff team with the Angels. They won three more games than any other team in baseball, but rank just 7th in the American League according to BaseRuns. Principally they were hampered by their offense, ranked 18th with just 738 projected runs scored. The pitching and defense were a bit better at 9th.

The Angels had just four positions that ended up ranking above average: catcher, first base, and two of the outfield/designated hitter combo. Catcher Mike Napoli posted a .273/.374/.586 line in 227 at bats, but fellow backstop Jeff Mathis hit just .194/.275/.318 in 283 at bats. Notably, the left side of the infield was an unmitigated mess offensively. Erick Aybar, Macier Izturis, Brandon Wood, Robb Quinlann and Chone Figgins combined for around 45 runs of below average offense according to wOBA. It wasn’t all bad though as Torii Hunter lived up to their hopes for actual offense from their center fielders and Mark Teixeira was an absolute beast, .358/.449/.632, after coming over in July.

Anaheim’s pitching was a testament to not only a solid unit but also to an enduring quality. The Angels tied for both the fewest number of starters used and the fewest number of relievers used. In fact, the Angels had four starters make 30 or more starts, a helpful achievement to a team that started the season with injury news to Kelvim Escobar and John Lackey. Ervin Santana underwent a complete turnaround, going from a 8.38 ERA in 14 road starts in 2007 to a 3.02 ERA in 17 road starts during 2008.

The Angels boasted five reliable bullpen arms in Jose Arredondo, Darren O’Day, Darren Oliver, Scot Shields and of course Francisco Rodriguez and his saves. Meaningless records aside, the five of them soaked up the majority of innings that the dependable starters couldn’t get to and helped keep the whole staff in balance.

Francisco Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira might be departing this winter, but the Angels have money to spend and a rotation that is going to return with Kelvim Escobar. Further blessed with a division that looks weak on paper once again next season and the Angels are likely to be the most favored division winner to repeat in 2009.

Continuing our series of looking at the free agents to be, by position, we move from the backstop to the hot corner, checking out the third basemen who will be available this off-season. Eight third basemen of note are going to be free agents, which include three pairs from the Rangers, Brewers, and Dodgers, a productive when healthy player, and a player only in the major leagues for his ability to play each and every position with league average skills. Here are the eight:

Name                  Age        G            Slash        WPA/LI
Hank Blalock           28       65   .287/.338/.508          0.21
Willie Bloomquist      31       71   .279/.377/.285          0.32
Joe Crede              31       97   .248/.314/.460         -0.57
Ramon Vazquez          32      105   .290/.365/.430         -0.10
Russell Branyan        33       50   .250/.342/.583          1.21
Nomar Garciaparra      35       55   .264/.326/.466          0.26
Casey Blake            35      152   .274/.345/.463          0.89
Craig Counsell         38      110   .226/.355/.302         -0.29

Blalock has an option on his contract for 2009, which should be exercised given that, despite the small sample size, he looked more like the 2003-2004 version of himself than the 2005-07 version. His ISO, OPS, and BB/K all returned to their 2003-2004 ranges, back when he was an all star. He also hit 12 home runs in 258 at bats and was a league average defender. His -3 and -4 defensive ratings in 2006 and 2007 support that he is probably average or slightly below average, but if he can produce for a whole season what he did in 1/3 of the 2008 season, he will definitely be worthwhile for the 6.2mm option.

Willie Bloomquist is a player that actually lives up to the oft-used example of why batting average does not tell the whole story. The example compares a player who hits in the .270s but with no extra base hits to someone in the .250s but with plenty of extra base power. Bloomquist had one double, and everything else was a single. He played all over the place this year, generally ranging from -2 to +2 wherever he found time. He may find a home somewhere as a utility player, but he does not have much value.

Crede was worth about a half win less than an average player in just 97 games, but managed to be the fourth best fielding third baseman, at +13 in the field. He did hit 17 home runs in 335 at bats and has established himself as a capable performer, so if he can stay healthy, he could be a nice addition. Ramon Vazquez was the opposite in the field, at -10, and despite a nice .290/.365/.430 line, it was more of a mirage than an accurate performance indicator. Ironically, his 2007 and 2008 seasons were eerily similar in terms of playing time: he played 104 games last year and 105 this year; he amassed 300 AB in both seasons; he stepped to the plate 345 times in 2007 and 347 times in 2008. He walked more, struck out less, and added more hits to improve his overall numbers. Unfortunately, this hinged upon an unsustainable .355 BABIP. He may have had a nice season, but Blalock is the much better bet here.

I cannot speak enough about Russell Branyan and it pains me that he does not play more. Yes, he strikes out, but he walks and absolutely mashes as well. In 132 at bats this year he hit 12 home runs, and managed to play +2 defense when he found himself at third base. Three true outcome players usually decline around the 35 years old mark, so the Bran-man should have a couple more productive years in him.

Nomar’s career reminds me a lot of Grant Hill’s: they were megastars for six or seven seasons, well on their way to the respective halls of fame, but injuries slowed them down and turned them into nice role players but nowhere near go to guys. Casey Blake was a nice pickup by the Dodgers to solidify the position down the stretch, but I would not expect him to be re-signed by Ned Colletti. I would expect Nomar to land himself a 1B/3B job somewhere, and Blake to be a starting third baseman for at least one more season.

Craig Counsell, however, has probably reached the point where he hangs up the cleats and becomes a bench coach. From what I have heard, he is destined to be a manager, and it might be time to start that process. He was not awful with the bat, but is a below average hitter still hanging on due to his ability to play multiple positions and do “the small things.” Blalock is the real catch here, and so it is likely the Rangers will keep him for at least 2009.

Over the last few day, word has leaked out of San Diego that the Padres will be willing to talk to teams that might be interested in Jake Peavy this winter. More importantly, since Peavy has a blanket no-trade clause, was his agent’s statements that Peavy would be willing to accept a trade to certain contenders in the National League, paving the way for real trade discussions to take place.

Peavy, the 2007 NL Cy Young winner, will certainly draw interest. Over the last few years, he’s established himself as one of the game’s best pitchers, and he’s got an All-Star track record despite being just 27 years of age. He’s also under contract through 2012 (with a team option for 2013), so he wouldn’t be a one year rental or require an extension, like most big name pitchers who become available before they hit free agency.

So, an ace entering his prime signed up for the next four (or five) years is on the market – everyone should be falling all over themselves to give up the farm for Peavy, right? Maybe not.

Despite his shiny 2.85 ERA, 2008 was pretty clearly the worst Peavy has pitched since 2003, which was his first full year in the majors and the year before he broke out into an established front line starter. Let’s take a closer look at his performances from 2004 to 2008, using the graphs available here.

The strikeout rate, which had held extremely steady from 2004-2007, showed a noticeable decline this year, dropping to 8.60 this year, down from his customary 9.50 range. A loss of a strikeout every game isn’t the end of the world in isolation, but when it’s combined with a simultaneous increase in walk rate and home run rate, like we see in the last two charts, it’s cause for concern. His FIP of 3.60 reflects the downgrade in his underlying skills, and shows that he pitched worse last year than he did in 2006, when his ERA was much higher. He was able to keep runs off the board by stranding a ton of runners (his 82.2% LOB% was second highest in baseball), but LOB% isn’t nearly the solid foundation to run prevention that striking batters out, limiting walks, and keeping the ball in the yard is.

Recently, the boys over at StatCorner.com unveiled tRA*, which is FIP with a whole lot of extra regressions on batted ball types and park adjustments and such, and gives a pretty good indicator of how well a pitcher actually pitched, stripping out a lot of the noise that gets included in a pitcher’s final results. Peavy’s tRA* for 2008 was 4.41, putting him just behind Aaron Cook and Paul Maholm among NL starters. Not exactly the kind of company you expect to see Peavy included with, eh?

Peavy simply wasn’t as good in 2008 as he was from 2004 to 2007. He was still a good pitcher, but he wasn’t the earlier versions of Peavy that we’d seen. He was worse in almost every meaningful category. And he spent a few weeks on the disabled list with elbow problems to boot. He returned from those and pitched well, so it’s unlikely that he’s already sustained a serious injury that will prevent him from pitching, but it’s another red flag in a season that raised several even without the health concerns.

Peavy’s contract calls for him to earn $9 million next year before a $52 million guaranteed extension kicks in for 2010-2012. Any team acquiring Peavy would be on the hook for at least $61 million over the next four years, and if the team option for 2013 was picked up, it would be $79 million over 5 years. Even in today’s marketplace, that’s frontline starter money. For the last four years leading up to this one, Peavy was certainly a frontline starter, but his 2008 performance has to raise questions over whether he will continue to pitch at that level going forward?

The Padres seem to believe that now is the time to sell high. If 2008 Peavy was a sign of things to come, they’re probably right, and potential suitors for Peavy might want to consider alternative options before giving up a ton of prospects for a guy with some real question marks.

Update: Just a reminder that we’re still accepting applications. If you plan on submitting an application, please do so by Friday.

FanGraphs is currently looking to hire Fantasy Baseball writers for a soon to be released fantasy baseball blog. These will all be paid, part-time positions with an expectation of 7-15 posts a week.

Please consider the following questions before applying:
– Can you write in a clear and concise manner and self-edit your work?
– Are you extremely familiar with the stats and graphs available on FanGraphs?
– Do you have strong analytical skills?
– Are you available to take on a consistent workload of 7 – 15 posts a week?

In your application please include writing samples, links to current blogs, fantasy baseball experience, or anything else you feel would be useful in evaluating your qualifications.

If you have applied for a position at FanGraphs in the past, please feel free to apply again. Send all applications to david@fangraphs.com with the heading Fantasy Application 08.

With the playoffs in full swing and approximately just two weeks of baseball remaining, I thought it would be prudent to take a look at the free agent class at each position. After all, these are the players our teams will be fighting for in trying to acquire their services for, at the very least, the 2009 season. For now, our target will be the free agent class of catchers, which, to put it kindly, might bring some intangibles and unmeasurable defensive value to the table in order to counteract their putrid offense. One, just one of the fifteen free agents to be listed below, had a positive WPA/LI this season, and it was barely above average, meaning that the best hitter below was a league average producer. First, the “young guns” of this year’s free agent crop of catchers:

Name               Age        G            Slash        WPA/LI
Miguel Olivo        30       84   .255/.278/.444         -0.20
Josh Bard           31       57   .202/.279/.270         -1.09
Dave Ross           32       60   .225/.369/.352         -0.10
Michael Barrett     32       30   .202/.274/.298         -0.60

Now, Olivo has a 2.7 million dollar mutual option for next season, and he would be a good investment as he has always shown a knack for power in a more elevated backup role. He probably should not be a starting catcher, but he would perform well in a catcher platoon situation, or as a backup making more than 40 starts a season. Bard had an extremely disappointing season; maybe he cannot get over his inability to catch a knuckleball. Ross is a classic three true outcomes player, almost like Branyan-lite, and he was the least bad of this group. And Barrett, despite injuries, posted numbers Michael Bourn would be proud of in his 30 games of action.

Name               Age        G            Slash        WPA/LI
Rod Barajas         33      104   .249/.294/.410         -0.02
Johnny Estrada      33       23   .170/.200/.170         -0.56
Toby Hall           33       41   .260/.304/.331         -0.31
Javier Valentin     33       94   .256/.326/.411          0.06
Jason LaRue         35       61   .213/.296/.348         -0.33

How is Rod Barajas only 33 years old? Based on his play last season with the Phillies I would have guessed 37 or 38. On top of his ability to prevent himself from aging, he actually played quite well this year in extended duty with the Blue Jays, actually leading them in OPS at one point halfway through the season. He has a mutual option on his contract for next season that will likely be exercised. Estrada’s career has fallen fast but I am sure some team will take a low-risk flyer on him. Hall, like Barajas, has an option that will likely be exercised. Valentin falls into the aforementioned Miguel Olivo category, of a catcher with power that will do well in duty that falls between the roles of backup and starter. LaRue did not have a terrible year, and for a backup with leadership ability–I’m assuming, at least–he should be able to play until he is at least 37.

Name               Age        G            Slash        WPA/LI
Jason Varitek       37      131   .220/.313/.359         -1.55
Ivan Rodriguez      37      115   .276/.319/.394         -1.11
Paul Lo Duca        37       67   .243/.321/.295         -0.69
Henry Blanco        37       58   .292/.325/.392         -0.27
Paul Bako           37       99   .217/.299/.328         -1.35
Brad Ausmus         40       81   .218/.303/.296         -1.18

Blanco has a mutual option on his contract, and based on his lack of offensive suckitude this year, as well as his reputation of being defensively stellar, he will have a job next season. The other five, in a Seidman-run MLB, would be out of work. I know Varitek is “the captain,” but the captain cannot hit anymore, and sometimes, just sometimes, winning is better than nostalgia or loyalty in the sport of baseball. Pudge is a surefire hall of fame catcher, but he is well past his prime, not so great defensively, and below average offensively. However, I am sure he will be able to provide “veteran presence” to a young team somewhere in 2009.

Lo Duca shouldn’t have had a job this season, let alone next season, so enough said right there. Bako and Ausmus could be okay in very limited backup duty, but at that point, why even pay someone who may be okay in a situation when there likely are better options in the farm system? If I were GM of a team, I would go for Blanco, Valentin, Ross, and Olivo out of this group, and that is pretty much it. As a group, they were awful offensively, with one-third of the players posting a higher OBP than SLG, and adding up to enough lost wins below average that, if reversed, might have even gotten the Marlins or Astros into the post-season.

Thanks to Tim Dierkes at MLB Trade Rumors for supplying the free agent lists!

“Pitching wins championships.”

“The difference between good teams and great teams are the little things.”

“Hitting behind the runner, making productive outs, and playing team baseball are the keys to winning.”

If you’ve ever watched a baseball game with the sound on, you’ve heard one of these cliches mentioned, and probably have heard them a few thousand times. Well, the Tampa Bay Rays are trying to make sure you know that they’re total and utter crap. Want to know the best way to make the World Series? Hit the ball really, really far.

The Rays connected for three home runs in Tuesday night’s game, putting five runs on the board in the first three innings and chasing Tim Wakefield from his start early on. Those longballs now give the Rays 16 home runs in eight playoff games. Their October home run pace would put them on track for 305 over a full season – the major league record for home runs in a season is 264, by the 1997 Seattle Mariners. The Rays are blowing that rate out of the water.

Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton have led the charge, combining for 10 of the 16 round trippers, but Carlos Pena has added a pair as well, and Akinori Iwamura, Cliff Floyd, Rocco Baldelli, and Willy Aybar have each hit one out. This team wide power fest allowed the Rays to send the White Sox back to Chicago and given them a 3-1 lead in the ALCS over Boston, putting the Cinderella story of the year one win away from the World Series.

They’re not doing it by hitting behind the runner. They’re not doing it with bunts. They’re not taking the extra base, making productive outs, or playing for one run. They’re hitting the ever loving crap out of the baseball, and proving that Big Ball will get you to the Big Dance. Toss the cliches out the window – when your team has a .535 slugging percentage in the playoffs, you’re going to win.

A continuation of the series of retrospectives looking back at the regular season and how teams fared. They will be presented, from first to last, in order of their run differential as given by the BaseRuns formula and adjusted for strength of schedule, which I feel is the best measurement of a team’s actual talent level.

Number Twelve: St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals were one of the biggest surprises this year in large part because of their offense, roughly an 800-run unit, 2nd in the National League. The 22nd ranked run prevention group though is not quite as impressive, 12th among 16 NL teams.

Given how bad their run prevention finished, who was to blame? Well, one group that doesn’t deserve the blame is the defense, which clocked in at 58 plays above average according to The Hardball Times. That was the 2nd best in the NL, just a single play below league leading Milwaukee.

Among the starters and relievers, the brunt of the blame rests on the starters. Significant innings going to Todd Wellemeyer, Joel Pineiro, Braden Looper and Kyle Lohse (newly signed to a 4-year, $41 million contract) were all to a varying degree below average, Pineiro being the biggest offender. Adam Wainwright was the only saving grace amongst the rotation.

The bullpen didn’t have any single person to really lay the blame on, it was an almost total team commitment to mediocrity with the exception of Russ Springer. Ryan Franklin and Jason Isringhausen provided numerous adventures out of the closer’s role, and not really of the thrilling kind.

But oh boy those bats! Albert Pujols had another insane season that he no longer gets credit for just because he does it every year. In addition to Big Al, the Cardinals struck gold in Ryan Ludwick who came off the free talent scrap heap to post a 4.89 WPA/LI and came out winners in the Troy Glaus for Scott Rolen swap.

Although several members of the offense are due for some regression in 2009, the pitching was so bad that it shouldn’t be hard to improve in that area and would help keep the Cardinals as contenders next season. Kyle Lohse for $10 million a year though? Not a great start.

Trailing the Rays 2-1, The Red Sox are sending Tim Wakefield to the hill tonight to oppose Andy Sonnanstine in Game Four of the ALCS. Earlier today, Dave documented the offensive woes of last year’s World Series victors, but on top of that, to advance to the World Series, their starting pitching will also need to be sharp. Wakefield, even at 42 years old, can dominate the best of them with that incredible knuckleball, and he will shoulder the responsibility of helping the Sox knot this series up at two games apiece. Much has been discussed about Wakefield’s playoff numbers and his performance against the Rays in the regular season, but honestly, that should not be taken into account.

With such small samples of performance, we cannot accurately predict or understand how a player will perform in a playoff game like this. Lester shut the Rays down to the tune of a 0.90 ERA in 20 innings this season, before giving up four runs in 5 2/3 innings yesterday. Ryan Dempster was untouchable at Wrigley Field and managed to touch everything in Game One of that NLDS. His postseason gamelogs show that he can either be hit or miss, shutting a team down, or allowing plenty of damage in a short time-span. The Rays, once on base, will try to wreak havoc, swiping as often as possible due to the amount of time it takes for Wakefield to get the ball to home plate.

If there is pressure on anyone in Game Four, it is on catcher Kevin Cash, who will need to, well, catch the knucklers from Wakefield. As simple a task as that seems, it is actually so difficult that Doug Mirabelli was able to extend his career by about four seasons due to his ability to handle Wakefield. Back to Timmy, though. The 16-year veteran does not nearly get the credit he deserves, and his 2008 proved to be one of his best seasons this decade.

He posted a 4.13 ERA, 4.84 FIP, and 1.18 WHIP in 181 innings this season. His K/BB was a tick under 2.0, thanks to a 5.82 K/9 and a 2.98 BB/9. The WHIP is his best since 2002, as is his .247 BABIP. Wakefield’s 71.9% strand rate is the best since 2005, and he produced a 1.60 WPA/LI, deeming him over a win and a half better than an average pitcher this season. Wakefield allowed very few baserunners and stranded a much higher percentage than in recent years. On top of all of this is the odd change in balls in play rates, as his GB/FB fell to a decade-low 0.73, while hsi FB% rose to a decade-high 48%. With about a league average 9.1% HR/FB, this resulted in a higher FIP and HR/9 due to the drastic rise in flyballs.

For his career, Wakefield has a 4.14 WPA/LI, making him just about four wins better than an average pitcher in this span, which makes sense. Wakefield has pretty much been an average pitcher, mixing points of dominance with some clunkers, but people often forget that average players possess plenty of value. He has a career 4.32 ERA and 4.72 FIP, along with a 1.35 WHIP and 71% strand rate. He will not make the Hall of Fame, but will definitely go down as one of the great knuckleballers of our time, and his ability to fill in as a starter or reliever for the Red Sox makes him extremely valuable to their team, year in and year out. Only time will tell how much longer he sticks around, but tonight will be a very important start for the two-time World Series winner.

In the last few years, when you think of Red Sox hitters in October, you think of David Ortiz launching longballs into the night, Dave Roberts swiping second base, or Mike Lowell doing his best Mike Schmidt impression. They’ve brought fearsome offenses into the playoffs and made opposing pitchers pay.

Unless something changes in the next few days, the images of Red Sox hitters going forward might be more along the lines of hapless flailing and weak dribblers. For instance:

The great clutch god, David Ortiz, 2008 postseason:

4 for 27, 1 double, 0 home runs, .148/.324/.185

The up and coming star, Jacoby Ellsbury, 2008 postseason:

6 for 32, 3 doubles, 0 home runs, .188/.229/.281

The captain, Jason Varitek, 2008 postseason:

3 for 27, 0 doubles, 0 home runs, .125/.192/.125

The new hero, Mike Lowell, 2008 postseason:

0 for 9, 0 doubles, 0 home runs, .000/.111/.000

That quartet is 13 for 92, a .141 average, and they’ve yet to hit the ball over the wall. It’s hard to score runs when this much of your offense is struggling, and these struggles are the main reason why the Rays are two wins away from the World Series.

The Red Sox need to get some thump from some of their thumpers, or their season is going to come to a close in a hurry.

The Graduate: Daric Barton | Born: August 1985 | First Baseman

Daric Barton was being counted on to help carry the offence in 2008, but he regressed significantly after a promising minor league career and brief cup of coffee in the Majors in 2007. The former catcher, who was acquired in the trade with St. Louis for Mark Mulder, hit just .226/.327/.348 in 446 at-bats after posting a career minor league line of .299/.411/.455. He likely put too much pressure on himself to drive in the big runs. He should get a second chance in 2009 and is still only 23 years old.

The Riser: Vince Mazzaro | Born: September 1986 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Vince Mazzaro made huge strides in 2008 after struggling in both 2006 and 2007. He began the year in Double-A, where he was dominating. Mazzaro posted an ERA of 1.90 and allowed just 115 hits 137.1 innings. He posted rates of 2.36 BB/9 and 6.82 K/9 with his repertoire of a low-90s fastball, plus change-up and developing curveball. He was roughed up a bit during a late-season promotion to Triple-A and allowed 49 hits in 33.2 innings of work. On the plus side, Mazzaro’s other rates held and his BABIP was .404.

The Tumbler: Henry Rodriguez | Born: February 1987 | Right-Handed Pitcher

The hard-throwing Venezuelan took a big step backward last season after getting pounded in Double-A, in part due to inconsistent command and in part due to the lack of a reliable breaking ball. Henry Rodriguez can throw 92-96 mph and even touch 100 mph, but better hitters can sit on the pitch. He second best pitch is a change-up. He has a ways to go to harness his stuff after posting a rate of 9.66 BB/9 in 41 Double-A innings.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Rashun Dixon | Born: August 1990 | Outfielder

Rashun Dixon is not a typical A’s draft pick. The athletic, but raw, outfielder was considered the best hitting prospect in Mississippi and had committed to play football in college. He has the potential to be a 30-30 player if he can harness his abilities. He struck out far too much in his debut in rookie ball (38 K%) but he slugged 10 triples and posted an ISO of .263. Patience is required, as Dixon should move slowly through the minor league system.

The ’09 Sleeper: Andrew Carignan | Born: July 1986 | Right-Handed Pitcher

A 2007 fifth round pick, Andrew Carignan has done nothing but post solid numbers in his pro career. The late-game reliever spent most of 2008 in Double-A, in his first full pro season. Carignan allowed just 36 hits in 52.2 Double-A innings but walked too many (6.66 BB/9), while striking out a ton (11.45 K/9). Once he develops better command, Carignan could challenge for a set-up role in Oakland.

Up Next: The Florida Marlins