Last night had all the makings of an easy Dodgers victory, as the Phillies looked tired and beat following the first inning and made too many mistakes to legitimately walk away as the victors. Joe Blanton, in an attempt to throw some high heat, threw a fastball right down the middle of the plate that James Loney just barely missed for a three run home run. Later in the game, Ryan Howard made another defensive miscue, which helped the Dodgers take a 5-3 lead. Following utter domination at the hands of Hong-Chih Kuo, it seemed that the Phillies would have to prepare for Game Five, with the series tied 2-2. But Shane Victorino and Matt Stairs did not receive that memo, or mission statement, for Jerry Maguire fans.

Kuo stayed in the game to pitch the 8th inning, but after surrendering a single to Howard–quite the unexpected event–Joe Torre lifted him in favor of Cory Wade. Wade retired Pat Burrell, but Shane Victorino, who has seemingly been in the middle of everything this post-season, lined a two-run home run over the right field wall to tie the game, 5-5. Wade then retired Pedro Feliz, before Carlos Ruiz hit what had the makings of a nothing-single. In actuality, this was as crucial a play as there was in the game, because his single helped prolong the inning. In many cases, I have seen the subsequent hitters weakly ground out or loft easy popups following a game-changing play, where nobody really even notices because their emotions circle around the game-changing play.

Ruiz kept the inning alive, and Joe Torre turned to Jonathan Broxton, the flame-throwing righty whom many fans thought should have been pitching earlier, especially given Wade’s limited availability coming in. The Phillies countered with Matt Stairs, the NLCS version of Russell Branyan, who went to the dish with one thought in mind: hit a home run. Stairs, who freely admits to swinging for the fences, was sitting dead red, and on a 3-1 count, got a 97 mph fastball closer to the middle of the plate than the outside corner and crushed an absolutely no doubt about her.

Stairs just completed his 17th major league season, where he has amassed 254 career home runs, with a .266/.358/.483 slash line. He will strike out, he will walk, and he will smack longballs. His best seasons belonged with the Athletics, where, from 1995-97, he OPS’d between .880 and .969, in full time duty. He also hit 26, 27, and 38 home runs in those seasons. Via WPA/LI, his best season was actually last year with the Blue Jays, where he was worth 2.56 wins above average. He posted an OPS of .917 in 2007 and hit 21 home runs without playing in a full-time capacity. Suffice it to say, of all the home runs he has hit, last night’s has to be the most memorable and most important.

The other man of the hour is Victorino, who is seemingly in the middle of everything in each game. After his two-run homer last night, Shane now holds the Phillies record for most RBIs in a single post-season, with 11 batted in. Whether it be his fine defensive plays, his baserunning (taking the extra base on the Furcal error, and the interference call in Milwaukee), his part in the melee in Game Four, the grand slam off of CC Sabathia, or the fine hitting in this NLCS, it seems that Victorino has suddenly transformed from a fantasy stud that is not a household name, to arguably the most covered Phillies player this October. With guys like Victorino and Stairs stepping up, the load is lessened on the big superstars, who can hopefully find their groove. If the Phillies do win Game Five, behind Cole Hamels, they will officially be in the World Series, where they will need to be firing on all cylinders to beat the Red Sox or Rays.

During the season, one of the questions that no one had a really good answer to was “what happened to B.J. Upton’s power? After hitting 24 home runs in 474 at-bats as a 22-year-old, he regressed to just 9 home runs in 531 at-bats this year. His HR/FB% went from 19.8% in 2007 to 7.4% in 2008. For comparison, his 2007 HR/FB rate was about equal to what Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton had this year, while his 2008 HR/FB rate was about equal to what Dustin Pedroia and Shane Victorino had this year.

If Hamilton suddenly had Victorino’s power, everyone would notice. That’s basically what Upton went through this year, and while he was still a useful player thanks to his walks and stolen bases, the home runs had basically dried up with no real explanation.

Well, worry not, because Upton’s apparently out to prove that the power is still there, launching his 5th home run of the postseason last night in Tampa’s route of the Red Sox. That’s five longballs in just 31 at-bats, by the way. Those five home runs tell us, with almost absolute certainty, that his 2008 regular season home run rate was not his real talent level.

If Upton’s true talent HR level was a rate of one home run per 59 at-bats, as it was in the regular season, then the odds of him hitting five home runs in 31 at-bats would be .0001, one in ten thousand.

When you combine what we know about his performances prior to 2008 with his postseason performance so far, we can just shrug our shoulders at his power outage during the regular season and assume it was just a fluke, because there’s no reason to worry about Upton’s lack of power.

A continuation of the series of retrospectives looking back at the regular season and how teams fared. They will be presented, from first to last, in order of their run differential as given by the BaseRuns formula and adjusted for strength of schedule, which I feel is the best measurement of a team’s actual talent level.

Number Eleven: Cleveland Indians

We return to the American League and a team that was mostly overlooked due to their horrible first half performance and subsequent trading of CC Sabathia. The Indians benefit a bit in these rankings from a tougher than average schedule, but mostly it was their 10th ranked offense that lands them the 11th overall spot.

It seems counter intuitive that an offense that garnered nothing from Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez would be an asset but Kelly Shoppach stepped in and did an adequate job of blunting the blow from the loss of Martinez and while Hafner’s performance was damaging, it was made up for by the unexpected breakout of Shin-Soo Choo. The major issue for Choo going forward will be his performance against lefties. He’s always done a fair job against righties, but he’s had a platoon split of around 200 OPS points over his career including 2008.

On the run prevention side, an under reported regression from 2007 was in the gloves which went from an above average defensive team to a much more run of the mill, slightly mediocre squad. Of course, the big glaring problem was in the bullpen. While Rafael Betancourt pitched tremendously in 2007, the 2008 version was more pedestrian and Joe Borowski simply imploded. All in all, the 2008 bullpen was on the order of 50 runs worse than in the previous year.

Gone also from 2007 was the dynamic and not appreciated enough duo of CC Sabathia and Fausto Carmona. Sabathia was a little worse while in Cleveland and with his mid season trade, obviously didn’t log anywhere near as many innings. Meanwhile, Carmona’s control never made it to 2008 and he finished the year walking more than he struck out.

There were also terrible contributions from Paul Byrd and Jeremy Sowers, but amazingly, those pair plus the regression from CC and Fausto were all canceled out by the incredible comeback of Cliff Lee. Cliff Lee allowed five fewer earned runs in 2008 despite pitching one hundred and twenty-six more innings. And I spell that out to give you some idea of how big a feat that is. Lee also walked two fewer batters, hit two fewer batters and allowed five fewer home runs. In 126 more innings. 126!

Entering tonight’s matchup of Derek Lowe and “Kentucky” Joe Blanton, the Phillies hold a 2-1 lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL Championship Series. After taking the first two games at home, the Phillies stumbled yesterday, behind a poor Jamie Moyer outing, en route to a disappointing 7-2 loss. The Phillies hitters continued to struggle against Hiroki Kuroda, and the win helped reinforce that these teams have trouble defeating each other on the road. The Phillies have a 6-5 season series lead against the Dodgers, going 6-0 in Philadelphia, but 0-5 at Chavez Ravine. As Game Four sets to get underway, I thought I would offer some notes of mine on the series thus far:

Poor Russell Martin
In Game Two, Brett Myers threw a pitch behind Manny Ramirez, that got everyone in the Dodgers dugout stirring. Myers claimed the pitch slipped out of his hands, and given his struggles early in ballgames–he led all major league pitchers in runs surrendered in the first inning–it is pretty safe to say that he did not want to put Manny on base. He was likely attempting an inside pitch that slipped out of his hand. Chad Billingsley did not retaliate, much to the ire of Ramirez, who went onto say that Myers is the kind of guy he would want on his team.

Last night, Hiroki Kuroda threw a pitch that sailed over the head of Shane Victorino, who promptly acknowledged that he understood the need for retaliation, but asked that he be hit in the ribs, not the head. After grounding out, Victorino said something to Kuroda, which ultimately resulted in both benches emptying. The melee soon calmed down, but it was clear that both teams had had it up to here (as I type this my hand is positioned high in relation to my body to emphasize the “here”) with balls “slipping.”

Lost in all of this is how Russell Martin was hit, twice, and brushed back in another at-bat. Ramirez and Victorino may have been near targets, but Martin got not only the taste of sweet chin music, but also two beanings.

Rollins and Howard…not MVP-like
Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard are very talented players, and the recipients of the last two MVP awards in the National League. In this NLCS, however, they have been about as productive as Yuniesky Betancourt and Willie Bloomquist, combining for a 3-25 mark, with 8 punchouts. This has put more pressure on guys like Pat Burrell, Jayson Werth, and Shane Victorino, and if the Phillies have to rely on that triumvirate to help Chase Utley out, without Rollins and Howard, it is not very likely the Phillies will win this series.

Broxton
His mound presence is as intimidating as his last name sounds, and he throws really, really hard. If there was one major league pitcher that I would be terrified to face right now, it would be the Broxmeister.

Home Field Advantage
Perhaps my anger at the schedule of this series only surfaced due to being a fan of the Phillies, but is anyone else irked by the 2-3-2 format? I mean, sure, the team with the “2’s” gets more home games than not, but playing three straight home games in a row can be a massive momentum builder. You would think that the team with home field advantage might be the benefactor of three consecutive games at home, or at least that neither team would have that benefit. What is wrong with the 2-2-1-1-1 format? Sure, it adds time to the schedule, but it is not as if it adds a week. The teams would play two days, then a day off, then two days, followed by another day off. Then, each of the remaining three games would have a day off interspersed between them, meaning that, at its maximum, the series would last 12 days; in its current state, the maximum is 10 days.

Moyer
Jamie Moyer has now made two playoff starts this season, amassing a total of 5.1 innings, surrendering 8 earned runs. He was one pitch away from exiting the first inning last night with just two runs surrendered, but a poorly placed pitch to Blake DeWitt ensured that did not occur. The Phillies are now faced with a serious conundrum next time around, as, other than Cole Hamels, nobody has been stellar. Joe Blanton pitches tonight, and could perform well, but the triumvirate of Hamels-Myers-Moyer, as a whole, has not performed to expectations. Hamels has been brilliant, but Myers has been a better hitter than pitcher lately, and Moyer’s struggles were documented by Dave earlier today.

Dodgers Bullpen
Has not given up a run in three games. Cory Wade, James McDonald, Jonathan Broxton, Hong-Chih Kuo, Clayton Kershaw, Greg Maddux, Joe Beimel, and Chan Ho Park have combined for 11.1 scoreless innings, with 10 strikeouts.

Despite my allegiances to the Phillies, I initially predicted a 4-2 series win for the Dodgers. For me, honestly, tonight is a must-win for the Phillies, as it would push the series to 3-1, with Hamels pitching in Game Five. A loss here would bring with it the very real possibility of a 3-2 Dodgers lead heading back to Philadelphia, where they would once again face Kuroda, against whom they have struggled.

We’ve done several posts this year on how good Jamie Moyer has been for the Phillies, but yesterday, he was pretty lousy. Giving up six runs while only getting four outs kind of lousy. In fact, his start was bad enough to earn a Game Score of 20, which is pretty horrible, especially for a pitcher good enough to be given the right to start a playoff game.

But how bad was Moyer’s start in terms of postseason history?

Not that bad, it turns out. 52 playoff starters have posted a game score lower than 20, and five others matched Moyer’s game score to the tee. In honor of Moyer getting thumped, here’s a look at the worst pitching performance by a playoff starter in MLB history.

October 14th, 1996. 12 years ago tomorrow, Todd Stottlemyre took the hill for the Cardinals against the Atlanta Braves. The Cardinals had a 3-1 series lead in the NLCS, and a win would have sent them to the World Series. He was matched up against John Smoltz, so St. Louis needed Stottlemyre to be at his best. He wasn’t.

He gave up five runs in a first inning which saw all nine men come to the plate, then gave up three more hits to start the second inning before he was mercifully pulled. His final line for the day: 1 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 0 BB, 1 K. That’s a game score of 8, by the way. Smoltz cruised, tossing seven shutout innings in a 14-0 Braves route, and Atlanta would go on to win both games six and seven (the final by a similar 15-0 beating) to win the NL pennant. A good outing by Stottlemyre might not have been enough, but we’ll never know, because in a series clinching game, Stottlemyre had the worst postseason start ever.

The Graduate: John Lannan | Born: September 1984 | Left-Handed Pitcher

A 2005 11th round pick, John Lannan has made the Nationals’ scouting department look good. He is not a long-term No. 1 or 2 starter, but Lannan should be a reliable innings-eater. He allowed fewer hits than innings pitched in 2008, but did not strike out a ton of batters (5.79) and walked a few too many (3.56 BB/9), so there is room for improvement. He does a nice job of keeping the ball on the ground (53.6%) but allows his fair share of gopher balls (1.14 HR/9).

The Riser: Jordan Zimmermann | Born: May 1986 | Right-Handed Pitcher

A second rounder from the 2007 draft, Jordan Zimmermann has posted solid numbers in the minors and reached Double-A in his first full pro season. In Double-A, he posted rates of 7.51 H/9, 3.29 BB/9, and 8.69 K/9. Zimmermann could see Washington in 2009. His repertoire includes a low-90s fastball, curveball and developing change-up.

The Tumbler: Ross Detwiler | Born: March 1986 | Left-Handed Pitcher

After ending 2007 with a brief taste of the Major Leagues, Ross Detwiler struggled at High-A ball in 2008. The former No. 1 pick had difficulty missing bats (10.16 H/9) and walked too many batters as well (4.14 BB/9). He did a nice job of keeping the ball in the park, though, with a homer rate of 0.58 HR/9. He may begin 2009 back in the Florida State League.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Adrian Nieto | Born: November 1989 | Catcher

The Nationals may have lost out on first round pick Aaron Crow in 2008, but it allowed them to sign a couple of prep sleepers away from college commitments, including Adrian Nieto and J.P. Ramirez. Nieto has been a long-time teammate of Royals’ 2008 first round pick Eric Hosmer. The young catcher appeared in only eight Rookie League games after signing but held his own and should return to short season ball in 2009 to continue to work on his defence.

The ’09 Sleeper: Derek Norris | Born: February 1989 | Catcher

The Nationals organization certainly has some interesting catchers in the low minors and 19-year-old Derek Norris is one of them. In his second pro season, Norris posted a line of .279/.434/.463 in 227 at-bats against a league consisting mainly of 21 and 22-year-old college players. He posted rates of 21.7 BB% and 24.7% with an ISO of .185. He’ll get his first taste of full-season ball in 2009.

Up Next: The Oakland Athletics

A continuation of the series of retrospectives looking back at the regular season and how teams fared. They will be presented, from first to last, in order of their run differential as given by the BaseRuns formula and adjusted for strength of schedule, which I feel is the best measurement of a team’s actual talent level.

Number Ten: New York Mets

Our fourth consecutive National League team ends our top ten. The Mets are a return to our balanced ball clubs ranking 11th in runs scored and 10th in runs allowed.

The Mets defense certainly helped the pitcher’s cause as aside from the obvious one, there wasn’t much success in those ranks. Johan Santana started out slowly on the year, but really came on late and though his strikeouts were markedly down in 2008, he managed to raise his groundball rate and a slight uptick in missed bats means that we might see his strikeout rate climb back up in 2009.

Aside from Santana, Oliver Perez, Mike Pelfrey and John Maine managed to combine about 500 innings of average NL pitching which isn’t stunning but is always appreciated. The big problem in the rotation this year was Pedro Martinez, concluding his little-used four-year contract in a poor fashion.

Billy Wagner was an asset in the bullpen, but not a very durable one, missing the end of the season with injury. Aside from him however there was far too much durability from some members of the pen, who helped contribute to yet another Mets collapse. One wonders how much that will pressure the Mets to splurge over the winter for relief help.

On the hitting side, it was a season of rejuvenation for Carlos Delgado who seemed surely on his way to getting bought out at the end of this season and now walks away a near lock to have his option picked up. David Wright and Jose Reyes had another stellar season on the left side of the infield. Carlos Beltran added another underrated performance when combined with his position (center field) and glove ability.

When you have Wright, Beltran and Reyes to build around, three tremendous offensive and defensive studs, along with the payroll afforded to a New York franchise, it’s a wonder that the Mets aren’t dominating the National League.

The Graduate: Jeff Clement | Born: August 1983 | Catcher

Isn’t it nice that Seattle did not trade away all of its prospects… just most of them. Oddly though, with Jeff Clement on the horizon, current Seattle backstop Kenji Johjima was re-signed for another three seasons through 2011, which clouds the future for Clement behind the plate. Regardless, Seattle should find at-bats for Clement elsewhere, whether it be at first base or designated hitter. He’s going to be an excellent hitter but the time away from catching could hurt his growth as a defender. Clement still has work to do offensively, as well, as he struck out far more than he did as a minor leaguer (30% in the Majors compared to about 18% in the minors). His ISO also dropped to .133 after being above .200 for his minor league career.

The Riser: Greg Halman | Born: August 1987 | Outfielder

Greg Halman has always oozed tools, but he’s a free swinger who has struggled with breaking balls. The native of the Netherlands still struck out too much in 2008 (29 K% – although it’s a huge improvement over 2007 at 38%) – and probably won’t hit for a high average in the Majors – but he showed 30-30 potential by slugging 29 homers and stealing 31 bases split between A-ball and Double-A. Halman also needs to improve his walk rate a bit as it is currently at 6.2%. The fact that his numbers did not drop off after a promotion to Double-A, speaks well for his future.

The Tumbler: Matt Mangini | Born: November 1985 | Third Baseman

The knock on Matt Mangini coming out of college was that he did not possess prototypical power for a third baseman. However, he was supposed to have been able to hit for average. Well, that hasn’t happened. The former supplemental first round draft pick hit .252 in his debut in 2007 but struggled in 2008 by hitting .265/.376/.431 at High-A ball (in the hitter’s paradise known as High Desert) and .202/.247/.248 upon a promotion to Double-A.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Dennis Raben | Born: July 1987 | Outfielder

The Mariners’ 2008 draft was not pretty – especially when you consider first round pick Joshua Fields (a college reliever) is still not under contract. Second round draft pick Dennis Raben did not set the world on fire but he hit a respectable .275/.400/.560 in 91 short season at-bats. He did show some nice patients by posting a rate of 17.4 BB%. Given the Mariners love of rushing players, Raben should begin 2009 in High-A ball.

The ’09 Sleeper: Tug Hulett | Born: February 1983 | Infielder

Tug Hulett, who was obtained from the Rangers last winter, will not be a superstar, but he has the potential to be an excellent bench player or platoon partner. He can play a number of positions and offers a great batting eye at the plate. Hulett has also shown more power at the plate in the last two seasons and posted an ISO of .220 in Triple-A this season. He could be in line to replace Willie Bloomquist, after appearing in 30 big league games in 2008.

Up Next: The Washington Nationals

A good buddy of mine, RJ Anderson of Beyond the Box Score, sent me the introduction to a book he plans on writing, way back in March, and graciously allowed me to expound upon what he had been discussing. Essentially, RJ had, using the Lahman Database, found that the average slash line for all hitters from 1960-2006 was .259/.326/.395. Further utilizing the same database, he then found that the player whose career most closely matched this line was Oddibe McDowell, who, at .253/.323/.395, was closer to the average than anybody else.

Taking this discovery to the next level, I began to find the most average hitter each year by taking the average slash line in baseball in a given year and finding the hitter whose season most closely resembled that performance. It wouldn’t be fair to use the overall total from 1960-2006 as a constant because that would mean players from 2004 would be held to standards from 1962, but if you click the link above, you can see the winners of what I deemed The Oddibe Award, from 1981-2007. For the record, Jhonny Peralta was last year’s winner, with Curtis Granderson taking home the honor in 2006, a year before posting a tremendous statistical season.

This year, the average NL line was .260/.331/.413; the average AL line was .268/.336/.420. Finding players whose slash lines exactly match these is next to impossible, so instead I went looking for players in the general vicinity. Unfortunately, two of the closest players split time between leagues, so below are the players who came closest to either of the average slash lines:

Aaron Rowand (NL): .271/.339/.410
Jeremy Hermida (NL): .249/.323/.406
Casey Kotchman (AL+NL): .272/.328/.410
Ken Griffey (AL+NL): .249/.353/.424

From the looks of these four, the honor would seem to lean in the direction of Kotchman, but what happens when we introduce WPA/LI to the mix, which essentially tells us how many wins above an average player you were worth. A WPA/LI of 0.0 would designate you as a league average offensive performer. Rowand’s was 0.25, as was Hermida’s; Kotchman chimed in at 0.22; and Griffey at -0.01, making him the closest to the average among the four candidates. This puts me in a dilemma: I would like to say that Kotchman is the 2008 Oddibe Award Winner, but Griffey’s WPA/LI doesn’t lie. His slash line, however, is significantly off in the BA and OBP area. What do you think out there? Kotchman, because his slash line is right on par with the average, and his wins above average are under 1/4 of a win above average? Or Griffey, who is a little more off with the slash line but essentially the definition of average with WPA/LI?

A continuation of the series of retrospectives looking back at the regular season and how teams fared. They will be presented, from first to last, in order of their run differential as given by the BaseRuns formula and adjusted for strength of schedule, which I feel is the best measurement of a team’s actual talent level.

Number Nine: Los Angeles Dodgers

Say hello to the National League version of the Toronto Blue Jays, a pitching and defense dominated team with a mediocre offense. While the Jays ranked 20th in runs scored and 2nd in runs allowed via BaseRuns, the Dodgers come in at 24th and 1st respectively. Keeping in mind that the Dodgers didn’t have, and didn’t face, a DH and the gap between the two teams would close even further.

The Dodgers were punished in these rankings for having one of the easiest schedules in baseball this year, little wonder considering the division they played in. Nevertheless, their pitching was legit headed by three pitchers who roughly qualified as number two starters. Chad Billingsley moved into the rotation nearly full time this season and responded positively with a jump in strikeouts and groundballs and a reduction in walks.

Hiroki Kuroda fell off the radar a bit after a horrible nine starts in June and July, but he bookended those with 11 great starts on each side and added a second groundball heavy pitcher alongside Billingsley. Of course, neither of those two could compare to the third pitcher of the group, Derek Lowe, who actually saw his groundball rate diminish this season, but compensated with much fewer walks.

The bullpen had a fearsome trio of it’s own. Jonathan Broxton continued his dominance and although Takashi Saito took a step back both from a performance and a health perspective, Hong-Chih Kuo finally enjoyed enough health to show what an asset he can be with his ridiculous stuff.

Unfortunately, for as good as the pitching was, the hitting was underwhelming, in some part due to the injury to Rafael Furcal. But the Andruw Jones experiment sure backfired and looks beyond horrible now. Mark Sweeney was terrible, Juan Pierre was the usual Juan Pierre (bad). It’s almost frightening to think how bad the offense would have finished without the Manny Ramirez trade.