Nick Swisher may have had a relatively poor season in his White Sox debut, but he did manage to have at least one shining moment in 2008. Overall, he put up a .219/.332/.410 line. Though he still walked plenty of the time and managed to produce an almost identical ISO to the year before, his .251 BABIP definitely hurt his total production. Even if it had been closer to .280, still well below the average, his overall line would have looked much different, the OPS would not have been as drastically lower than the previous two seasons, and not as many would have looked down on him as they did this season. Regardless, on August 5, Nick the Stick gave us the ninth-biggest swing in win expectancy, in a game he didn’t even start!

Paul Konerko started the game at first base, hitting in the sixth spot, but was lifted after his plate appearance in the tenth inning. Swisher relieved him of his duty, and managed to record two plate appearances from the 11th-14th inning. The game graph is below:

In the bottom of the fourteenth, the Tigers sent flamethrower Joel Zumaya to the hill with an 8-6 lead, hoping to add to the Tigers win column. Zumaya had missed the first half of the season, but in his first fourteen appearances since returning from the deal, posted a 1.65 ERA. His walks and strikeouts were another story (15 BB and 16 K in those 14 outings), but he had been getting the job done. He then proceeded to give up one earned run in each of his next three outings, so his hot streak had been extinguished.

At the start of the frame, the White Sox had a 10.3% of winning the game. Orlando Cabrera greeted Zumaya with a single to left field, increasing their win expectancy to 19.9%. AJ Pierzynski then flew out, decreasing their expectancy to 11%. Carlos Quentin made up for the flyout by doubling to right field, putting runners at second and third, and giving the White Sox a 30.5% shot at actually winning the game. With one out and two runners in scoring position, Jermaine Dye hit a grounder to Edgar Renteria, who couldn’t handle the ball, allowing Cabrera to score, Quentin to move to third base, and Dye to reach base on the error.

With the score now 8-7, and runners on the corners with one out, it would take nothing more than a flyout to tie the game. In stepped Jim Thome. The White Sox now had a 47.5% chance of winning this game. Unfortunately, Thome could not get his bat on the ball, and he struck out swinging, reducing their expectancy to 21.2%. This set the stage for Nick Swisher. With two outs, runners on the corners, and an 8-7 deficit, Swisher prepared to face Zumaya. The first two pitches were balls, giving him the opportunity to sit dead-red and wait for a fastball. He then took strike one, making the count 2-1, before Zumaya reached back and delivered a fastball. Swisher jumped all over hit and sent the ball into the stands, delivering a walkoff three-run home run.

The home run, which gave the White Sox a 10-8 victory, swung the win expectancy by 78.8%, the ninth highest offensive swing from this season.

The Graduate: Manny Parra | Born: October 1982 | Left-Handed Pitcher

Manny Parra finally overcame a plethora of injuries to have an impact at the Major League level… about three years after he was originally expected to surface in Milwaukee. He showed some rough edges, including 181 hits allowed in 166 innings pitched, as well as a walk rate of 4.07 BB/9. But he also showed tons of potential with a K/9 rate of 7.97 and a fastball that averaged 92.4 mph. His secondary stuff – a change-up and curveball – still needs work but there are not many lefties that can hit the mid-90s.

The Riser: Jonathan Lucroy | Born: June 1986 | Catcher

Nabbed in the third round of the 2007 draft, Jonathan Lucroy has hit, hit and then hit some more. His two-year pro line is .315/.379/.492 with 24 homers and 116 RBI in 709 at-bats. In 2008, split between two A-ball levels, he posted rates of 10.9 BB% and 17.7 K%. Lucroy also showed improved power this season and slugged 20 homers with an ISO of .193. He is a solid leader behind the plate but his defence is lacking at times. That said, he threw out 56 of 125 runners attempting to steal (45%).

The Tumbler: Brent Brewer | Born: December 1987 | Shortstop

The aptly-named Brent Brewer, who was drafted out of high school in the second round of 2006, has been slow to develop for Milwaukee. His biggest flaw has been a lack of contact. Brewer has struck out at an alarming rate in his career, with a three-year average near 30%. His batting average has also been… well, average, at the career mark of .247. Brewer has not developed power as expected, either, with his ISO dipping to .098 in 2008. On the plus side, he has stolen 71 bases over the past two seasons.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Jake Odorizzi | Born: January 1987 | Right-Handed Pitcher

The athletic Jake Odorizzi was nabbed in the supplemental first round and swayed to forgo a scholarship to the University of Louisville, thanks in part to a seven-figure contract. In a small sample size, Odorizzi had a nice pro debut in Rookie Ball with 18 hits allowed in 20.2 innings. He also posted rates of 3.92 BB/9 and 8.27 K/9. He is fairly polished for a prep player, so he could begin 2009 in A-ball.

The ’09 Sleeper: Efrain Nieves | Born: November 1989 | Left-Handed Pitcher

Yes, his ERA was a little high and he allowed 78 hits in 76 innings, but Efrain Nieves offers a lot of promise. A 2007 seventh round pick out of Puerto Rico, Nieves has improved in each of his first two pro seasons and showed exceptional control for a young player in 2008 with a walk rate of 1.18 in Rookie Ball. His strikeout rate was solid at 7.78K/9 and the slim Nieves (6’0”, 170 pounds) is working to add upper body strength, which should help add a tick or two to his 90 mph fastball.

Up Next: The Detroit Tigers

Wrapping up the review of my favorite moments of 2008, let’s go back to April 24th – the season was only a few weeks old, and we were still trying to figure out what was different than previous years. The Diamondbacks were 16-6 and looking like the best team in baseball while the Orioles were the upstart of the AL East, but obviously, neither of those things would hold true throughout the entire season.

However, there was one guy making a bold statement that 2008 was a turning point in his career, and on April 24th, he continued to shout from the rooftops that we should all notice the difference. Here’s the graph from that game.

And here’s the relevant performance from that game:

C Lee: 9 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 K, .608 WPA

In his fourth start of the season, Cliff Lee tossed a complete game shutout, dominating the Royals and almost guaranteeing himself the Pitcher Of The Month award for April. After that start, his season line stood as follows:

31 2/3 IP, 11 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 29 K, 0.28 ERA, 1.61 WPA

Following that game, opposing hitters had a line of .109/.125/.139 against Lee, a ridiculous .264 opponents OPS. He was pounding the strike zone, missing bats, and limiting hard contact – only two of the 11 hits he had given up had gone for extra bases. The 14.5 strikeouts for every walk didn’t hurt either.

This was the kind of stretch that bad pitchers just can’t have. It was a thoroughly dominating series of four starts that should have illustrated to us that Lee simply wasn’t pitching with the same level of talent that we had assumed he had going into the season. He tried to tell us, as firmly as possible, that he’d taken a big step forward. Some of us didn’t listen – here’s what I wrote the day before he made the start against KC:

While the Indians have to be happy with how he’s performed, they’d also be wise to not count on the belief that Lee has taken a real step forward, and instead expect his results to begin to more closely match up with his skillset.

Whoops. As mentioned yesterday, the unlikely things that come to be are often the most fun, and Lee’s maturation into a legitimate ace was both unlikely and a lot of fun to watch. It’s good to be reminded every once in a while that players can make drastic changes in their skills. As the cliche goes, that’s why they play the games.

Over the next couple of weeks, I will be taking a look at the biggest swings in win expectancy this season by discussing the top ten hitting and pitching plays via WPA, win probability added. Our first play, the tenth biggest swing amongst all hitting plays this season, occurred on July 12, in a slugfest between the Cardinals and Pirates. The Cardinals were still technically in the playoff race, while the Pirates, well, were not. The Buccos would go onto win this back and forth affair by the final score of 12-11, and the game graph can be seen below.

As you may have gathered, Michaels’ big play is that very steep final spike in the win probability. The former roommate of Pat Burrell at the University of Miami had started the season on the Cleveland Indians before being traded to the Pirates at around the beginning of May. Since arriving in Pittsburgh, Michaels had only hit .242/.299/.394 in pinch-hitting and spot-starting duty. Suffice it to say, he had not produced the way Neal Huntington hoped for when he was acquired.

In the bottom of the ninth inning, the Pirates trailed 10-6. Jason Isringhausen came in to close the door, but things did not go as planned. After Michaels walked and Jack Wilson singled, Nate McLouth launched a three-run homer to bring the Pirates within one run. Having seen enough, Tony La Russa lifted Isringhause and brought in Kyle McClellan. Luis Rivas greeted McClellan with a single. Ryan Doumit followed with a single of his own, advancing Rivas to third base. Jason Bay then hit into a fielders choice, knotting the game at ten runs apiece. Xavier Nady was retired to end the inning, but the Pirates had come back from a four-run deficit in the ninth inning.

The top of the tenth essentially erased that hard work, as Troy Glaus led the inning off with a home run served up by Denny Bautista. Bautista would then go onto retire the side, but the Cardinals had taken an 11-10 lead, setting up Michaels’ big play. When Bautista struck out Joe Mather to end the inning, the Pirates had a 20.6% chance of winning the game.

McClellan began the bottom of the tenth inning by giving up a single to Raul Chavez. He was then lifted in favor of Carlos Perez, with the Pirates’ win expectancy rising to 34%. Jose Bautista then flied out to shortstop, reducing their expectancy to 21.4%. Michaels stepped into the box. He took ball one from Perez, giving him a 1-0 count. The next pitch did not get the chance to register as a ball or strike because Michaels launched it into orbit, over the outfield wall, a two-run homer that gave the Pirates the 12-11 win.

After trailing 10-6 in the bottom of the ninth, they had scored six runs to come back with the walkoff victory. Michaels’ home run skyrocketed their expectancy to 100%, since they won, meaning the dinger was worth 78.6% of win expectancy, the tenth highest ranked batting play this past season. Following the home run, Michaels continued to struggle, putting up a .211/.292/.344 line the rest of the season. He may not have his option exercised this off-season, but hey, at least he finished in the top ten in some category!

My first highlight of the season was Barry Bonds complete lack of an appearance. One might say that was decided before the season even began. My second moment of the season came nearly all the way at the end. It’s Game Seven of the American League Championship Series.

This game is still so fresh in everyone’s mind that I do not think I need to waste words or your time recapping it, so instead I will focus on why I felt it was a moment of magnitude beyond that of just your typical pennant-deciding playoff game. The game itself (I swear I’m not going to recap it) was close and tense, which always increases the drama ten-fold when we’re dealing with a deciding game. And it was decided at home, in front of a Tampa Bay (baseball) crowd that had never seen anything even remotely like this.

I will not go as far as to say this game signaled a transformation in baseball or any such hyperbole of that sort. If anything, last year’s playoffs were more of heralding of youth and the successes of modern analysis than this season’s. No, what this (American League) season ended with was this game, the Tampa Bay Rays who had finished last in every year of their existence, except one when they finished fourth, up to 2008. It was about a team, not just breaking through, but shattering notions of what’s what in baseball. The Rays kept the Yankees out of the playoffs, they competed with the budgets run amok in Boston and New York and they won. They won because of talent and because of smart management. They get to be the new flag bearer for every small market fan to look toward and say to him or herself that maybe someday his or her team might triumph in the same way.

Ultimately, it’s the arrival of Tampa that I predict 2008 will be remembered for when we look back in a decade or so. I do not think this is a flash in the pan team. There’s too much talent on the field now, in the front office and in the minor leagues for them to fade as quickly as they emerged. Boston, New York, say hello to a new competitor for the division. Toronto, Baltimore, your jobs just got even tougher. Rest of America, you got your first exposure to the Rays, I hope you’re ready for more.

The Philadelphia Phillies officially signed Ruben Amaro Jr as their next General Manager today, a three year deal. Amaro had previously served as an Assistant GM for both Ed Wade and Pat Gillick, and had actually interviewed for the Houston GM opening last year prior to Wade landing the position. It is an interesting situation because his first year at the helm will follow a World Series championship, and there are definitely some personnel issues within the organization that need addressing.

With Amaro signing on, Assistant GM Mike Arbuckle, who was largely responsible in building the farm system that produced the likes of Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, Ryan Madson, and Brett Myers, will be leaving the team. He wants to pursue opportunities elsewhere, and rightly so. He likely would have made just as solid a GM as Amaro, and will definitely earn the position sometime in the near future. At the very least, he will help build up another franchise’s farm system.

As mentioned, Amaro has some personnel issues to address. The most pressing of them is whether or not to re-sign Pat Burrell. Burrell has more than made it clear that he wants to stay in Philadelphia. He has mentioned giving a “hometown” discount. He also seems like a genuine guy that is truly happy where he is at now, so if a deal finds its way into his hands, less lucrative than elsewhere, but in the same vicinity, he would very likely stay in red pinstripes. The initial offer of 2-yr/22 mil was declined, because he wants a third year on the deal. If Amaro bumps it to something like 3-yr/34 mil, Burrell will be back manning leftfield next season. He stinks in the field, but he is very consistent and potent offensively. Three true outcome players tend to decline rather quickly, but he still has another couple of good years left in him.

After Burrell, the Phillies only have four free agents, just two of which are notable: Tadahito Iguchi, Rudy Seanez, Jamie Moyer, and Scott Eyre. Eyre could be had for cheap and would be a great signing. Acquiring him during the season gave the Phillies another lefty out of the ‘pen, which allowed JC Romero to become more of a specialist than an entire inning pitcher. Moyer has mentioned he wants to pitch at least one more season and would love to return to his literal hometown. He could also be signed to a reasonable contract, but it is very unlikely that Jamie would repeat his regular season performance from this past season. A 1-yr deal for 5 mil, maybe, but anything more than that would be ill advised.

Outside of free agency, several Phillies players with great seasons are arbitration eligible, which is going to hogtie their payroll and prevent them from going after players like Derek Lowe. Joe Blanton, Greg Dobbs, Chad Durbin, Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard, Ryan Madson, Shane Victorino, and Jayson Werth are all arbitration eligible, and are all going to see raises this off-season. Durbin may have had a career year never again to be repeated, but he will end up seeing his stipend rise. Hamels made next to nothing this season so he will see a substantial raise. Howard did hit 48 home runs, but I cannot imagine his raise will be as record-setting as the result of his arbitration entering the 2008 season. Victorino and Werth should also see substantial raises, and deservedly so.

This team was good enough, and hot enough, to win the World Series, and most of the key components will be returning. Other than those coming back, Amaro will also have to make decisions regarding which players will not be returning. The options of So Taguchi and Tom Gordon were already declined, but Kyle Kendrick and Adam Eaton are still under contract. With JA Happ and Carlos Carrasco waiting in the wings, Kendrick would have to have one hell of a Spring Training to even be considered for that fifth spot. After a somewhat successful rookie campaign, he faltered as predicted in 2008. He does not strike anyone out, issues free passes regularly, and serves up too many gopherballs. That is not a formula for success. And Eaton, well, he just stinks.

If Ruben Amaro wants to really impress Phillies fans, just release Adam Eaton now, or buy him out. He serves no purpose to this team and actually has a fourth year mutual option for 2010. If they opt not to bring Burrell back, Amaro could look to the free agent bargain bin and bring in an effective right-handed outfielder capable of platooning with Geoff Jenkins, leaving Victorino in center and Werth in right. Additionally, he could win the city’s GM-love by inking Hamels to a big deal and not doing the same for Howard. Even though most of the team will be returning in 2009, Ruben Amaro Jr still has plenty on his plate in his rookie year as a general manager.

Continuing on in our look at our best memories from 2008, which kicked off this afternoon.

First off, here’s the graph for moment #2.

Not that exciting. No big spikes, no late game comebacks. Not much drama at all, really. Except, there was one play that made this game a lot of fun, especially for those of us who had the misfortune of following the Mariners all season long.

The two most important parts are to the left – J Santana pitching and F Hernandez hitting. These two are otherwise known as Johan Santana and Felix Hernandez, two of the best pitchers in baseball. Oh, and they both happen to be Venezuelan.

This was a match-up of the best pitcher in the country’s history against the best arm that Venezuela had ever produced. Johan, the Cy Young ace, matching up against Felix, the ace in the making. They’d pitched against each other before, but this time, in a National League park, they’d have to actually face each other.

Of course, being a couple of guys who spent their entire careers up through 2007 in the AL, neither one was exactly an experienced hitter. Johan was 8 for 31 with Minnesota, while Felix was 1 for 8. A couple of bad hitters facing all-star pitchers made the mano a mano matchup a little less likely that we’d get some real drama, but great memories are made from unlikely scenarios, and this one was no different.

In a season of misery, it’s hard to describe how much fun it was watching Felix hit a grand slam home run off of Johan Santana. These are the kinds of things that you laugh at when they happen in movies, but there he was, wearing a huge grin as he rounded the bases. He’d just made the Mariners 30 percent more likely to win the game, and he wasn’t even pitching at the time. The youngster upstaged the ace on his home turf in the grandest way possible.

Of course, since this was the 2008 Mariners’ season, a few innings later Carlos Beltran would slide into Felix’s ankle in a play at the plate, shoving him from the game and putting him on the disabled list. Even our joyous moments only lasted about an hour.

This week, here on FanGraphs, we’re going to be looking at some of our favorite events from the 2008 season. While this one is a series of events, in total, it’s one of the more amazing things I’ve ever seen on a baseball field, and it didn’t get the recognition it deserved. Check out this stretch from Lance Berkman’s Play Log:

If you got tired of counting up the hits, that’s 18 hits in 23 at-bats. From May 4th to May 10th, the Astros played six games, and Berkman stepped to the plate 29 times, reaching base safely in 24 of them. His line for that stretch: .783/.827/1.434, for a robust 2.262 OPS. His WPA over those 29 plate appearances: 1.49. Even taking leverage out of the equation, his WPA/LI was 0.97 – he was worth nearly a win more than an average hitter in six games.

The stretch included eight straight at-bats with a hit, as well as a totally separate stretch where he reached base in six straight plate appearances. At no point during those six games did he make outs in consecutive trips to the plate.

He terrorized three teams and 16 pitchers (including Ben Sheets, Derek Lowe, and Chad Billingsley), swinging the hottest bat anyone had at any point in 2008. For six glorious days, Lance Berkman was the best hitter anyone has ever seen. This will go down as one of the best weeks anyone has ever had in the history of the game, and we were all around to see it.

Last week, I took a look at Reds ace Aaron Harang and his poor 2008 season, in order to see exactly what went wrong. His strikeout rate dropped, walk rate rose, and home run rate skyrocketed to a level rarely seen, putting his controllable skill measures right in line with his ERA. Even when we adjusted for the very high home run rate, his FIP was still much higher than the marks posted from 2005-07. Suffice it to say, it appeared that Aaron Harang legitimately had a bad season and was not immensely better than his 6-17 W-L record along the same lines that Matt Cain is usually much better than his records.

After reading some of the comments here and at other sites that graciously linked to the article, I have changed my view somewhat, and would like to shed light on the theme most prevalent in the discussions: the before and after of Harang’s controversial relief appearance. See, on May 25, in an extra-innings affair against the Padres, Dusty Baker called on Harang to pitch in innings 13-16. In that span, Harang surrendered two hits, walked just one hitter, and fanned nine of them, an extremely effective performance.

Entering that game, Harang had made 11 starts, and had an average Game Score of 56, an ERA of 3.50, and a K/BB ratio of 3.50, with 18 walks and 63 punchouts. He seemed to be having a typical Harang year. His eleventh start took place on May 22, meaning he pitched out of the bullpen on May 25 on very short rest. Whether that outing resulted in a mechanical flaw developing or an injury occurring, his next ten starts were awful.

In the ten subsequent starts, Harang allowed 52 earned runs in 51.2 innings, for a 9.06 ERA. His OPS against rose to 1.087 while his average Game Score plummeted to 33. Always known for solid strikeout and walk rates, Harang’s K/BB dropped to around 2.3, much lower than the 3.5+ he has grown accustomed to. The relief outing definitely seemed to have some sort of an effect on the righty, one that hurt his overall seasonal numbers.

The outlook might not be bleak, however, as Harang closed the season out quite strongly. Over his final eight starts, he posted a 2.83 ERA, a K/BB above 3.0, an average Game Score of 57, and a much lower OPS against of .733. Perhaps the injury or mechanical flaw dissipated as the final two months of the season rolled around, but Harang definitely performed much better than he did over the summer. In the previous post, I suggested that the Harang of 2005-07 was likely gone, but I have to amend that a bit right now.

I believe that Harang is experiencing normal dropoffs in his strikeout and walk rates, but that his home run rate will regress. He is not nearly as bad as he looked over the summer, just like he isn’t a true talent 2.83 ERA pitcher. His true talent level and projection for 2009 will not be as nice as the level entering this season, but he can still be a very effective pitcher, especially if the bugs hurting him over the summer have been exterminated.

A continuation of the series of retrospectives looking back at the regular season and how teams fared. They will be presented, from first to last, in order of their run differential as given by the BaseRuns formula and adjusted for strength of schedule, which I feel is the best measurement of a team’s actual talent level.

Number Nineteen: Detroit Tigers

With the acquisitions of Edgar Renteria and Miguel Cabrera to re-shape the left side of their infield coming into 2008, the Tigers looked poised to be an offensive behemoth and had some people saying 1,000 runs was even within reach. In a sense, that wasn’t terribly unrealistic, but it was certainly a high end estimate and needed to be treated as such. In reality, the 2008 Tigers ended up worse at offense than their previous years counterparts, scoring 66 fewer runs. BaseRuns supports their total, giving them a projected 826 runs to a real total of 821. That still was good enough to rank 4th in the Major Leagues as far as BaseRuns goes but their 841 projected runs allowed (which is 16 fewer than they actually gave up) was poor enough to rank 27th.

Offensively speaking, the problem for the Tigers in matching their 2007 figures was rooted in unsustainable performances. Namely, Magglio Ordonez who posted a pedestrian 19.2% line drive rate in 2007 but managed to record a ridiculous .385 BABIP. There was no way that was going to stay at that level and it didn’t, falling to a more believeable .338 mark this season. That drop sloughed about 40 points off his average and thus his on base percentage as well. His power and walk abilities also regressed a tad further dropping his OBP and really cutting into his slugging percentage which went down 101 points year over year. Add it all up and Magglio Ordonez alone was worth about 50 less runs with his bat than in 2007. That’s kind of a lot.

Placido Polanco and Gary Sheffield also suffered drops in production of around 20 runs each and so the problem begins to be clear why Miguel Cabrera alone wasn’t going to be enough. Now, if the run prevention unit had maintained their 2007 totals, the Tigers might have still been okay. That didn’t happen though, not in the slightest. First of all there’s the defense. Ranked as one of baseball’s better units last year, John Dewan of the Fielding Bible had them at 45 plays above average. According to The Hardball Times, they dropped to 54 plays below average this season which is supported by the team BABIP jumping seven points to .304 this year.

It obviously wasn’t just the defense however, there were actual problems with the hurlers themselves. Namely in the bullpen where Todd Jones finally collapsed and took most of the rest of the unit with him. One has to wonder if Joel Zumaya will ever be the Joel Zumaya of 2006 again. Moving backward in game time, the starters would seem like an easy target as well, and they did also get worse in 2008, but their degradation wasn’t as severe as in the other units. Chiefly, Jeremy Bonderman fell into below average territory in 2008 with his ill-favored party trick of turning strikeouts (down two per nine) into walks (up two per nine). But the Tigers also rid themselves of Mike Maroth this season which was a positive step. Of course they added Dontrelle Willis willingly and then gave him an extension so there’s that for the next few seasons to deal with.

The Tigers need to completely remake their defense and pitching while they hope their aging offensive core doesn’t age too quickly and they’re in a tough division to hope for many breaks.