It’s too early to proclaim anything definitively, but a look at the transactions that have occurred so far this off-season reveals a pretty interesting trend.

Jeremy Affeldt signs with Giants for 2 years, $8 million

This is probably 50% of his true value. Worse relievers got four year deals a year ago.

Ryan Dempster signs with Cubs for 4 years, $52 million

This is a pretty significant discount for staying in Chicago. Dempster took the same contract Carlos Silva got a year ago despite being a far superior talent.

Athletics acquired Matt Holliday from the Rockies for a collection of question marks

Holliday was expected to be traded for a pretty hefty package of talent, but there are real concerns about both of the young players Colorado got in exchange for their best player.

Yankees acquired Nick Swisher for a collection of barely useful role players

A year after getting traded for the best pitching prospect in the White Sox system, they turn around and sell him for a fraction of what they paid to get him. Even if Swisher never returns to previous levels, the Yankees didn’t give up much to get him.

Nationals acquired Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham for barely useful role players

While I don’t think all that highly of either guy Washington acquired, they still traded two young players with some name value and got practically nothing back.

Along with the Marlins dumping Mike Jacobs because no one wanted him and an underwhelming market for Coco Crisp, so far nearly every transaction of the winter points to this being a pretty significant buyer’s market. In basically every move so far, the acquiring team has given up less than we would have expected to either sign a player or acquire one in trade. The cost of bringing in talent has been dampened significantly over prior years.

Perhaps this will all change, and the big contracts for the big stars will reverse the course, but right now, this winter looks a great time to be a buyer. Sellers are finding it hard to get anything close to what used to pass for market value. Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised, then, that Billy Beane is on a mission to collect big league talent right now. Have proven veterans become the new market inefficiency?

When constructing a bullpen, every General Manager keeps at least one guy around, not to come in and extinguish a fire or save the game at its most crucial point, but rather to prevent further damage and save the arms of others. These are known as mop up pitchers, because their job is, essentially, to help clean up, or not spread further, the mess created by others. These pitchers tend to be the equivalent to the 12th man in the NBA, and are only called upon in situations wherein using other, better relievers would result in the wasting of resources.

One such mop up pitcher is Clay Condrey of the Phillies, who actually put together a relatively solid season. In 56 games, he posted an ERA of 3.26 and an FIP of 4.19. Numbers not necessarily keeping his agent’s phone ringing off the hook, but he did a very effective job of mopping up; entering into blowouts or games out of reach and at least keeping the score where it stood. All told, Condrey’s pLI, average leverage index, was 0.45, which happened to be the lowest amongst all relievers with at least 50 innings pitched. Interestingly enough, his career has seen the pLI decrease every season, from 1.10 five years ago down to 1.02, to 0.96, to 0.60 last year, to this year’s 0.45.

Some of his low leverage index contemporaries this season were Aquilino Lopez, Brian Bass, Joel Peralta, and the recently-signed Jeremy Affeldt. Readers, I need your help. Unfortunately, I do not know the mop up men for every team, but if we can compile a good list of 30, we will be able to determine whomever was the most moppy-uppiest of them all, and declare a winner. Further, if we are able to name all 30 and officially declare a winner, I will make some sort of an award in Microsoft Publisher or some such program and mail it to his team.

So… let the names begin!

Mike Mussina officially called it quits this week, finishing his career up with a 20-win season that saw him post career highs or lows in several statistical categories. He was hands down one of the best pitchers of this generation, one which featured four of the best pitchers in the history of the sport. Mussina routinely finds himself mentioned on the list of this generation’s top pitchers that includes: Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, and Curt Schilling. This post isn’t about Mussina, though, who is usually nestled between Glavine and Schilling on this list. No, instead, I am focusing on the starting pitcher that concludes this list: Kevin Brown.

Whenever most people see this list of nine starting pitchers, Brown tends to be the only player that raises eyebrows or conjures up questioning. For whatever reason, the vast majority of fans forget how great he was, for a significant period of time. Perhaps it serves as a testament to how amazing Maddux, Pedro, Unit, and Clemens were, but Brown put together a remarkable career that all too often goes unnoticed or forgotten. When the Hall of Fame discussions sprout up, Mussina is routinely the equivalent of that team that goes 86-76 but misses the division and wild card by a couple of games, a very good team but just not on par with the playoff teams. Brown, however, tends to be like this year’s version of the New York Yankees: a team with a good, winning record, that finishes in third place, unnoticed behind the bigger winners ahead of them.

The only legitimate reason I can come up with to explain why Brown is not thought of as highly as some of these other guys, not including any type of post-season performance or in-season awards, is that he continued through five injury-plagues seasons following the end of his peak, essentially leaving an extended poor aftertaste. From 1989-2000, though, Brown was by far one of the best pitchers in baseball. In fact, a look at some of the numbers allows him to stake claim as perhaps the fourth best in this 12-yr span, behind Maddux, Clemens, and Johnson.

Looking at those with at least 240 starts (20+ starts in 12 seasons), Brown posted an ERA+ of 130, behind just Maddux (158), Clemens (148), and Johnson (138). In terms of raw ERA, Brown and Johnson tied at 3.20. And in terms of OPS against, Brown’s .646 was topped by nobody outside of Maddux, Clemens, Johnson, and Smoltz; and Smoltz was virtually identical with his .643.

Here is what an average season looked like for all four of these pitchers:

Maddux:  33 GS, 240.0 IP, 211 H, 47 BB, 174 K, 2.62 ERA, 2.99 FIP
Clemens: 31 GS, 219.2 IP, 186 H, 76 BB, 210 K, 3.08 ERA, 3.21 FIP
Johnson: 30 GS, 206.0 IP, 159 H, 90 BB, 251 K, 3.20 ERA, 3.21 FIP
Brown:   31 GS, 219.1 IP, 205 H, 60 BB, 158 K, 3.20 ERA, 3.35 FIP

Now, clearly, the first three posted superior numbers to Brown in this span, but not numbers so incredibly better that, at the end of 2000, they were sure-fire Hall of Fame pitchers while Brown was only considered very good. In fact, looking at WPA/LI, from 1989-2000, Brown’s 30.55 was within striking distance of Johnson’s 31.84, and not too far behind Clemens’ 38.23. As mentioned before, though, Brown’s career did not end in 2000, and things went downhill from that point on. From 2001-2005, he made 30+ starts just once, injured his hand punching a wall, and underwent intense scrutiny from the Yankees fanbase. Those five years basically erased a large portion of the reputation he built with brilliant performance the previous twelve seasons.

All told, Brown finished his career with a 3.28 ERA and 3.33 FIP. Greg Maddux, assuming he retires this season, will end up with a 3.16 ERA and 3.26 FIP. Clemens, a 3.12 ERA and 3.08 FIP. And Johnson, a 3.26 ERA and 3.14 FIP. There are many more important statistics than ERA and FIP, and nobody is debating that Maddux, Clemens, Johnson, and Pedro (who, for the record, isn’t included here because he did not become a legit starter until 1994) are far superior to Brown, but looking at all the numbers really makes me wonder why such a gap seems to exist between Brown and the likes of Moose, Smoltz, Glavine, and Schilling.

Any thoughts? Brown has pretty much no shot at the Hall of Fame, but his numbers deem him worthy of being remembered as much more than – “Oh yeah, he was pretty good back in the day.”

This came up in the Coco Crisp trade thread yesterday afternoon, but I felt like it’s worth a larger mention. It’s one of the things that I see repeated frequently among fans and analysts alike, but it just lacks the validity of it’s claim. I’m referring to the notion that a player who is moved from an up the middle defensive position to a corner defensive position loses a significant amount of value – you’ve probably seen this stated as something like the following:

“David DeJesus is a very good center fielder, but his bat makes him just an average left fielder.”

These kinds of statements are mostly due, in my opinion, to the rise of metrics that compare players against an offensive baseline of other players who play the same position. Since the average hitting LF is significantly better than the average hitting CF, moving a player from CF to LF will make him look quite a bit worse. He’s now getting compared to a better crop of players, so his relative ranking falls.

The problem, however, is that the relative drop in offensive value is almost entirely offset by a relative increase in defensive value.

Let’s look at LF/CF, for instance. Last year, major league left fielders hit .269/.344/.442, while major league center fielders hit .268/.334/.420. Over a full season, the offensive difference between a corner OF and a CF equals about 12-14 runs. Over that same full season, the defensive difference between a corner OF and a CF equals about 9-10 runs.

The net difference in moving a quality defensive CF to a corner OF spot will be a loss of somewhere between 2-5 runs, thanks to the decreased amount of opportunities that CF will get playing in a corner. Of course, if you replace that CF with another CF who is significantly better with the glove, you can get those runs right back by getting the premium defender more opportunities.

We really need to get over this idea that guys like David DeJesus, Carl Crawford, and Ichiro Suzuki lose a significant amount of their value because they’re not playing center field. The difference in their value in CF vs a corner is pretty small, and there are many cases where it certainly makes sense to have a premium defender in an outfield corner.

We have to get away from this notion that a good defender is wasted in a corner. It’s just not true.

The Graduate: Sergio Romo | Born: March 1983 | Right-Handed Pitcher

A former 28th round selection, Sergio Romo has faced an uphill battle to the Major Leagues but he made the most of his opportunities and appeared in 29 games with the Giants in 2008. He allowed just 16 hits in 34 innings with rates of 2.12 BB/9 and 8.74 K/9. His minor league numbers have been almost video-game like with rates of 1.73 BB/9 and 10.06 K/9 in 271.1 career innings. His stuff is underwhelming with a fastball that averages 88.9 mph and a slider at 77.5 mph. He utilized a change-up 3.3% of the time.

The Riser: Madison Bumgarner | Born: August 1989 | Left-Handed Pitcher

The Giants organization knew it had something special with Madison Bumgarner, who was a first round selection out of high school in 2008. He spent the entire year in A-ball and posted an unbelievable 1.46 ERA in 141.2 innings. He allowed 111 hits and posted rates of 1.33 BB/9 and 10.42 K/9. Bumgarner, if he continues to pitch this well, could reach Double-A in 2009. The southpaw’s fastball works in the low 90s most of the time but he can touch 96 mph. His slider and change-up are works in progress.

The Tumbler: Wendell Fairley | Born: March 1988 | Outfielder

Wendell Fairley was considered a bit of a reach at 29th overall in the 2007 draft, as some suggested it was a selection to help the club save money as it had multiple picks in the first two rounds. Fairley struggled to hit in Rookie Ball at the age of 20, with a line of .259/.346/.337 with an ISO of .078. He also stole just seven bases in 52 games. On the plus side, Fairley has a lot of athleticism and showed a willingness to take a walk (11.9 BB%).

The ’08 Draft Pick: Roger Kieschnick | Born: January 1987 | Outfielder

Roger Kieschnick, the Giants’ third round selection in 2008, signed too late to appear during the regular season so the organization sent him to the fall Hawaii Winter Baseball league. He held his own but struggled to hit for average with a line of .236/.333/.482 with six homers in 110 at-bats. He also struck out 46 times, though. Kieschnick should begin 2009 in A-ball.

The ’09 Sleeper: Clayton Tanner | Born: December 1987 | Left-Handed Pitcher

Bumgarner and Tim Alderson got a lot of attention in 2008 but Clayton Tanner has some intriguing talent as well. The 20-year-old southpaw was drafted in the third round of the 2006 draft. He has been hittable in his career – 288 hits allowed in 278.1 innings – and has not struck out a ton of batters (6.89 K/9) but there are a number of positives. He has allowed just seven home runs in his career and has excellent control (2.94 BB/9). Tanner features a high 80s fastball that can touch the low 90s, as well as a slider and change-up.

Up Next: The Toronto Blue Jays

The new My Team feature now lets you view your team’s projections. Just click on the “My Projections” link right next to the “My Team” link when you’re logged in and you’ll see the 2009 projections for any player that is on your team, assuming the projection is available.

Just like the My Team feature, you can share your My Team projections with anyone you like by just giving them the web address. For example: Here are the 2009 projections for my fantasy team last year.

To get a customized projection list all you need to do is register and start adding players!

I promise, you won’t hear about this again.

I’ve been nominated for a $10,000 scholarship thanks to the writing I’ve done over at USSMariner.com, which is strangely decided by popular vote. I’m in second place, about 700 votes behind the leader, who has leaned heavily on Daily Kos for his votes. The fact that I’m still without shouting distance after their full court press for him is pretty remarkable.

Anyway, voting closes tonight at 3 AM EST, so if you’re so inclined to vote for me, you can do so now. I probably need 3,000 to 4,000 votes today to overtake the current leader, so every vote counts.

Thanks for your support.

The title to this post is one of the most common sayings amongst baseball fans. It also happens to be the saying that drives me the zaniest, makes me want to bang pots and pans on my head, or tie someone to a chair and force them to watch, on a continuous loop, the film You Got Served. Albert Pujols recently won his second MVP award. The BBWAA got it right, thankfully, but Pujols winning the vote by a final tally of 369-308 was much too close for my liking, regardless of who finished second. Add in that the second place finisher was Ryan Howard of the Phillies and this is when I begin to lose my cool. Keep in mind while reading this article that I am a devout Phillies fan, and that I am not criticizing the writer’s association for a 369-308 final tally, but rather criticizing everyone across the country who felt that Howard truly should have sniffed the MVP award.

To start things off, why did anyone even think Howard deserved the award, or felt he had a good shot of winning, in the first place? He hit 48 home runs and knocked in 146 runners, very gaudy power numbers. This is the first reason. The only other reason conjured up involves… ugh… Howard “hitting when it counted.” Yes, in September, when the Phillies were fighting to get into the playoffs, Howard did more than just endorse Subway: he hit .352/.422/.852, a 1.274 OPS, with 11 home runs. His September performance carried the team into the post-season, where they eventually won the World Series. Because his performance earned the team a playoff berth, he must be highly considered for the award, right? Right?

Is it just me, or does the entire season count? I mean, I know I’m not a rocket scientist (another cliche favorite of mine), but I do know that statistics and performances technically count for the entire duration of the 162-game season. Going off of this, Howard only hit when it counted some of the time, because, for half of the season, he was average or below average. In April, he hit .172/.297/.343, with five home runs. In June, .234/.287/.439, and in August, .213/.328/.463. Even if you ignore the batting average aspect of the slash line and focus on the OBP/SLG, those are not solid months. Those are Ronnie Belliard months. Did anyone stop to think that if Howard had performed even on par with slightly above average offensive players in those three months, that he wouldn’t have needed to carry the Phillies in September?

I mean, sure, we cannot go back and change the course of history like in that Ashton Kutcher movie, but I would venture a guess that if Howard posted even an OPS of .830 in those months, that the Phillies would have been in a great situation entering September with regards to the playoffs. Instead, he was essentially reverse-anchored, and his entire season was evaluated with the final month in mind. The opposite happened to Chase Utley, who went crazy in April/May, and tailed off the rest of the season, still posting great numbers, but built on a performance far from fresh in the minds of fans and voters. Nobody remembers movies or performances from January and February when it comes time to the Academy Awards, and that is pretty much exactly what happened with Utley. Back to Howard, though, who by no means deserved to win the award, or even finish second.

Howard’s WPA/LI this season was 2.93, pretty good, but by no means great. On his own team, here are some other players and their context-neutral win contributions: Chase Utley (3.63), Cole Hamels (2.83), Pat Burrell (2.77), Jayson Werth (2.70). Factor in Brad Lidge’s 5.37 WPA as a closer, and that gives us five other players on the Phillies that were either better than Howard in terms of overall production, or very close to him. Suffice it to say, strong cases were not made for Hamels, Burrell, Utley, or Werth.

His 2.93 WPA/LI ranked 16th in the senior circuit, but where did he rank in some other categories? His home run and RBI totals topped all others in the whole sport, but outside of that, he honestly did not have an impressive season. His OBP ranked 49th, and despite the 48 HR, his SLG finished sixth best. Put together, this slotted him 14th in the OPS department. Howard’s WPA ranked 23rd, and in the fielding department, he finished 12th at the position. For those curious, Pujols ranked either first, second, or third in BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, WPA, and WPA/LI, as well as fourth in home runs and ninth in RBIs.

The most interesting statistic I saw involving Howard’s candidacy was this: in 700 PAs, Howard posted a 2.93 WPA/LI, making him about three wins above an average player offensively. In just 229 PAs with the Dodgers, Manny Ramirez posted a 3.10 WPA/LI. And keep in mind that WPA/LI is a counting stat, just like home runs.

Ryan Howard is an important part of the Phillies, and his September performance did carry them into the playoffs; however, strong April numbers would have counted just as much, and likely would have prevented September from meaning as much as it did to the team. For someone to “hit when it counts,” that player should be consistently great all year long, since the entire season counts. I can understand his candidacy in a year when there really isn’t a clear-cut winner for the award, but Pujols was so far ahead of everyone else that it is borderline absurd for certain writers or fans to froth at the mouth over Howard’s exclusion from several ballots. As a fan of his team, I can vouch that without his production, the Phillies wouldn’t have been nearly as good, but the same can be said, if not moreso, for Chase Utley, Cole Hamels, Brad Lidge, Pat Burrell, and Jayson Werth.

No matter how you look at it, unless you are advocating giving the MVP award to someone with only one amazing month, Howard did not deserve the award, should not have finished second, and definitely should not have finished that far ahead of Utley.

Bobby Abreu has had an incredibly consistent career, at least from an offensive standpoint. From 1998-2007, his OBP never fell below the .393 mark. He has knocked in 98 or more runners each year since 1999. In that same span he has never recorded less than 35 doubles, a walk rate below 14.5%, or a BABIP lower than .327. Additionally, in the ten seasons from 1999-2008, Abreu has hit the 20 HR-20 SB mark eight times, even reaching the 30-30 mark on two of those occasions. For his career, he is right around a .300/.400/.500 slash line, with 241 home runs, 318 stolen bases, and a WPA/LI of 37.03. When he decides to retire, he will be remembered as a great offensive player, one who never truly became the superstar many felt he could become, but who still put together quite the impressive resume.

Some of these numbers have taken a turn for the worse over the last two seasons, however. His OBP fell to .369 in 2007 and .371 in 2008. His ISO has dropped from .242 in 2004 to .176 right now, which is higher than the .162 posted the year prior. Primarily known for having a great eye at the plate, Abreu’s ability to lay off of pitches out of the zone has diminished as well, as his O-Swing% has risen from 10% in 2005 to 16% over the past two seasons. Almost a direct result, the walk rate, never before lower than 14.5%, was 12.2% in 2007, and just 10.7% in 2008. Essentially, this is a case of an aging player losing the skills that make him effective.

Abreu is now a 34-yr old free agent, who will turn 35 during Spring Training of 2009. According to recent reports, he is seeking a deal worth 45 million dollars spread over three seasons. The Yankees and Mets are both seemingly shying away from his asking price, which brings forth the idea that he just is not worth the investment. If so, what exactly is he worth?

From 2006-08, his WPA/LI is an aggregate 5.73. Using some weighting, I am quite comfortable deeming him as a true talent 1.8 win above average player. Defensively, however, is another story. Via the + – system, Bobby has either been the worst, or among the worst, rightfielders in baseball over the past three seasons, posting a -14, -14, and -24. We’ll call him a true talent -17 fielder, which amounts to about 1.5 wins. Before any adjustments are even made, we are now looking at a player worth about 0.3 wins above average. As a corner outfielder, though, -0.5 wins must be docked via a positional adjustment, and +2.0 wins must be added to give us a total above a replacement player. 1.8 + 2.0 – 0.5 – 1.5 = 1.8.

With this in mind, Bobby Abreu is worth about 1.8 wins above a replacement player. Multiply that total by the 5.5 million dollar per win free agency rate, and the grand total is 9.9 million, which will be rounded up to 10 million. Essentially, based on his true talent level right now, if Abreu were to sign a one year deal, a fee of ten million dollars would be appropriate. Since he is seeking a three-year deal, a 10% discount rate comes into play, deeming an appropriate contract worth 27 million dollars over three seasons. Abreu is currently seeking about 18 million dollars more than he is worth. If some team can convince him to serve as a DH, then his asking price may not be in the realm of the absurd, but 15 million dollars per year for a very bad defensive corner outfielder currently losing the offensive skills that allow him to stay in the lineup should not be very realistic.

Abreu was my favorite Phillies player growing up, and my second favorite player to Greg Maddux, but at this stage in the game, he just isn’t worth what he is asking.

The Graduate: Justin Masterson | Born: March 1985 | Right-Handed Pitcher

He’s not flashy – but Justin Masterson has the potential to be a beast coming out of the bullpen. The right-hander’s fastball averages out at 89.5 mph but it has incredible sink on it, which causes batters to consistently beat balls into the dirt. In 2008, Masterson allowed just 68 hits in 88.1 innings, along with rates of 4.08 BB/9 and 6.93 K/9. Although he started nine games, the right-hander is better suited for bullpen work where he can focus on his sinking fastball and slider. He used his change-up at the Major League level just 3.1% of the time. Once he cleans up his control, Masterson should really take off.

The Riser: Daniel Bard | Born: June 1985 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Daniel Bard had a horrible 2007 season, which included a 6.42 ERA in A-ball and 56 walks allowed in 61.2 innings. He completely turned things around, though, in 2008 with a shift from starting to relieving. Bard began the year back in A-ball and allowed just 12 hits and four walks in 28 innings. He then moved up to Double-A where he allowed 30 hits in 49.2 innings with rates of 4.71 BB/9 and 11.60 K/9. The control was obviously a little shaky at Double-A, but the potential is there to be a dominating eighth-inning reliever (and eventual closer) with a high-90s fastball and a slider.

The Tumbler: Clay Buchholz | Born: August 1984 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Expectations were high at the beginning of 2008 for Clay Buchholz after he threw the 17th no-hitter in Red Sox history on September 1, 2007 (in just his second big league start). Buchholz, though, ended up back at Double-A in 2008 after posting a 6.75 ERA for the Major League club. He allowed 93 hits in 76 innings and posted rates of 4.86 BB/9 and 8.53 K/9. His fastball velocity was the same as 2007 and he allowed more ground balls but his command suffered, his pitches had less movement and batters made better contact against him (up five percent over 2007). The potential is still there, but Buchholz is in danger of being passed by other pitching prospect in a strong Red Sox system.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Derrik Gibson | Born: December 1989 | Shortstop

A third-round selection out of high school in 2008, Derrik Gibson had an impressive debut by hitting .309/.398/.394 with 14 stolen bases in 94 at-bats. He also earned a 14-game promotion to A-ball where he struggled and hit .086 (His BABIP was .125). Gibson does not possess much power at this point but he stole 16 bases in 2008 in as many attempts and also showed a good eye at the plate with a walk rate of 14 percent. He has the potential to be a solid top-of-the-order threat.

The ’09 Sleeper: Nick Hagadone | Born: January 1986 | Left-Handed Pitcher

Nick Hagadone appeared in just three games in 2008 thanks to Tommy John surgery. He showcased his immense talent in those three games by allowing just five hits and striking out 12 in 10 innings. He also dominated in his pro debut in 2007 with a low-to-mid-90s fastball and an excellent slider. Hagadone could be another dominating late-game reliever or he could find success as a starter if he can improve his change-up. He should be fully recovered from surgery by spring and could begin the year in High-A ball.

Up Next: The San Francisco Giants