Well, it’s official: my Phillies phever has officially worn off, and now it’s back to business as usual, worrying about what they will do in the off-season. Newly appointed GM Ruben Amaro wasted no time signing lefty reliever Scott Eyre, and it is believed that the Phillies will also re-sign Jamie Moyer, even if the deal lasts two years. Otherwise, just about everyone not currently locked down to a long-term deal is eligible for arbitration. Most, if not all, of these players—Greg Dobbs, Joe Blanton, Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, Chad Durbin, Shane Victorino, Ryan Madson, and Jayson Werth—are going to win their case, meaning raises will be due across the board.

This will make it harder for Amaro to go out and sign an impact player, though most of the positions are already set in stone, with the bulk of their core returning. The only true question mark at this point involves the outfield. Victorino and Werth will be back, and together form a tandem of all-around, very productive players, that many people still don’t know about. Pat Burrell’s spot is another story.

Burrell has mentioned numerous times that he would love to return, but he is currently seeking a three-year deal. Speculation surfaced that Amaro would offer two years, so if he ups the deal to a third year, it is very likely that Burrell returns. With free agent starting tomorrow, though, my personal feeling is that Pat the Bat will be offered much more money elsewhere, an opportunity cost too great for him to offer a hometown discount and return.

The trio of Burrell, Victorino, and Werth formed one of the top, if not the top, offensive outfields in 2008, combining for a WPA/LI of just under seven wins above average. Defensively, Victorino was about two wins above average with a positional adjustment; Werth was about a half of a win above average; and Burrell was just under two and a half wins below average. All told, factoring in offense and defense, the Phillies outfield was close to seven wins above average this past season.

There were rumors that the Phillies would send a package headlined by Victorino to the Rockies for Matt Holliday, but Ken Mandel of MLB.com recently reported that the two clubs were never realistically close to making a deal. If they opt to resign Burrell, and are able to make a deal in the same range as other suitors, here are the projections for 2009:

Pat Burrell:     .253/.377/.490, 32 HR, 29 2B
Jayson Werth:    .279/.369/.484, 25 HR, 25 2B, 21 SB
Shane Victorino: .286/.345/.428, 13 HR, 24 2B, 27 SB

If Burrell signs elsewhere, Amaro has mentioned that he would likely platoon the left-handed combo of Geoff Jenkins, Matt Stairs, and Greg Dobbs with a right-handed bat signed from the free agent market. The righty bats that have been linked to the Phillies are Kevin Mench, Rocco Baldelli, Jerry Hairston, and most recently, albeit from a trade and not free agency, Jermaine Dye. Below are the projections for these players:

Geoff Jenkins:  .257/.330/.441, 15 HR, 22 2B
Kevin Mench:    .264/.322/.430,  7 HR, 16 2B
Rocco Baldelli: .279/.330/.465, 12 HR, 18 2B
Jerry Hairston: .264/.333/.391,  4 HR, 14 2B
Jermaine Dye:   .270/.334/.491, 31 HR, 33 2B
Matt Stairs:    .242/.341/.409, 12 HR, 17 2B 
Greg Dobbs:     .284/.329/.432,  8 HR, 16 2B

Other than Dye, who is a very significant power threat, all of these players have very similar projections for next season. Defensively, believe it or not, but Jenkins was +6 in 2006, and +18 as the second best left-fielder in 2007, before being right around average in his limited rightfield role in 2008. He might not be worth two wins above average defensively, but he is certainly more defensively sound than Burrell. Mench was +5 in rightfield in 2007, and +2 in limited duty this season. Baldelli doesn’t have a large enough sample size to base defensive evaluations on, but he should be no worse than average, which is about the same for Hairston.

Dye has posted the following numbers: -14, -41, -17. He has ranged from around 1.5-2 wins below average defensively, which comes pretty close to cancelling out the offensive production. At this stage in his career, Stairs is nothing more than an offensive threat, and while a larger role for Dobbs is likely merited, his arm is suspect and he is not a natural outfielder.

Dye is owed 11.5 million in 2009, and has a club option for 2010 worth 12 million. Oddly enough, that 23.5 million is about the same amount Amaro has hinted he would be offering to Burrell. This is all assuming Dye is even being dangled, which he very well may not be. If they lose Burrell to free agency, and opt to go with a Jenkins/Mench, Jenkins/Baldelli, or Jenkins/Hairston platoon, they are going to lose some offensive production, but improve defensively. With both Utley and Howard entrenched in the lineup, a big righty power bat sure would be nice, but Jenkins is due to perform better than he did in 2008, and a nice righty platoon partner wouldn’t be as dramatic a dropoff in total production (both offensively and defensively) as many would think.

The New York Yankees and Chicago White Sox made a trade this afternoon. Based on reports, Nick Swisher and Kanekoa Texeira are headed to the Yankees in exchange for Jeff Marquez, Jhonny Nunez and Wilson Betemit.

The biggest name here is obviously Nick Swisher, who lasts just a single year in Chicago after coming over in a trade from Oakland prior to the 2008 season. He clearly did not fulfill the expectations that Kenny Williams had, but was it the right time to move on?

Looking at what most would call the advanced or peripheral and what I call the core stats, Swisher’s walk and strikeout rate rose a little over his career rates, but for all intents and purpose, show no major skill change. Swisher’s ground ball versus fly ball remained within reason as well, but he did see a sizable jump in his line drive rate, which is a positive sign. His home run per fly ball rate also stayed around career norms, indicating that he didn’t really lose anything in power, though there is the park to consider.

Discipline wise, Swisher swung incrementally more often over 2007, but less than he did 2005 or 2006. Swisher also posted his highest contact rate since 2005, up from 77.2% last year to 79% this year. So if his power remained the same, his discipline remained the same and his contact actually improved, how did he have such a poor season? In a word, luck. Remember that improved line drive rate I mentioned above, well despite that Swisher saw his BABIP from from .308 to a horribly unlucky .251. That’s pretty much it and for the future, you would expect that to rebound.

Swisher has three years and 22 million left on his contract with a 2012 option at an additional $9.25M. Assuming roughly average defense and Tango’s positional adjustments for the corner outfield and first base, where it seems likely Swisher will play, Swisher grades out somewhere around two to three wins, more if his bat comes all the way back or if his defense is above average. At just over $7 million per year, that makes Swisher a pretty solid bargain. In return for that and a decent looking minor league hurler in Texeira, the Yankees are sending back incredibly little.

Jeff Marquez reached Triple-A this year at 23, but while there saw his ground ball rates fall to down to average and had trouble generating strikeouts. Jhonny Nunez reached Double-A in the bullpen but has spent most of his time in the rotation. While there, he’s shown some ability to get strikeouts, but is just average at keeping the ball on the ground and really, is too far off to project much based on the numbers. Wilson Betemit has some power, but has some problems drawing walks.

All in all, this looks like a clear win for the Yankees, to the point that I’m betting that there are more than a few GMs out there upset they didn’t get in on the chance to acquire Swisher at this level of a discount.

A continuation of the series of retrospectives looking back at the regular season and how teams fared. They will be presented, from first to last, in order of their run differential as given by the BaseRuns formula and adjusted for strength of schedule, which I feel is the best measurement of a team’s actual talent level.

Number Twenty four: Kansas City Royals

What to say about the Royals. Another year wallowing in the depths of the AL Central and heading into an offseason with rumors rampant about more curious moves from GM Dayton Moore. The Mike Jacobs trade being just such an example. As 2008 clearly demonstrates, this team needs an offensive overhaul and more hitters with a .320 OBP isn’t exactly doing something different. The Royals finished the year at 682 runs scored according to BaseRuns, 25th in baseball and head of only Seattle and Oakland in the AL. Their run prevention though was about average, 748 runs allowed, 16th in baseball.

The Royals were actually one of the best defensive teams in 2007 according to John Dewan, coming in at 63 plays above average, 49 of those from the infield. This year, he has them as the fourth worst team in baseball, 65 plays below average, good for a mind-blowing 128 play difference which amounts to around 100 extra runs scoring. That’s pretty horrendous. The plus side to that is given that their run prevention overall was about average, and their defense was horrid, that means the pitching had to be above average.

Indeed it was, as Zack Greinke took a big step forward in 2008 and having just turned 25, looks poised to start a streak of really impressive seasons. He’s overlooked in Kansas City, but no mistake, he put up franchise-type numbers this season. Gil Meche had a really rocky start to the year, but recovered nicely and finished with 2008 on par, or even better than 2007. Two seasons in, and his contract has been a bargain so far. Time will tell if that performance holds up. Luke Hochevar and Kyle Davies contributed some acceptable innings out of the rotation as well, but Brian Bannister was a bit of an issue with an ever-increasing line drive rate. Bullpen wise, Joakim Soria and Ramon Ramirez paired up to form one of the best relief duos nobody paid attention to.

The people responsible for all that bad defense were also responsible for some atrocious hitting. There are some decent contact hitters amongst the group, but they finished dead last in walks drawn among AL teams and 12th in slugging percentage. Tony Pena mercifully got replaced by actually productive Mike Aviles, but before he did he managed to rack up 225 at bats and an OPS+ of 7. There were numerous other problems as well with Aviles, Alex Gordon and David DeJesus being about the only contributors amongst the position players.

The Royals have some pitching, especially in the rotation, for the next couple years, but they need an overhaul of their positional talent if they’re going to even sniff the central of the AL Central.

< rant >

Earlier this week, I poked some good-natured fun at the BBWAA for their Rookie of the Year award voting. See, Edinson Volquez of the Reds finished fourth in the balloting, yet he is not a rookie. Just because nobody heard of him prior to this year does not automatically deem him eligible as a rookie. I mentioned how numerous bloggers, myself included, had been running a year-long ballot for the three major end of season awards, and we knew from the get-go that Volquez did not qualify. I thought a transgression like this could forgotten, but after seeing the voting totals for the AL Cy Young Award today, I legitimately felt like finding the addresses of some voters and berating them until they gave solid enough reasoning for their selections.

Cliff Lee deserved to win, so let’s clear that up right now. My anger has nothing to do with his victory. He would have had my vote if I were so privileged. He may not repeat this performance next season, but a 2.54 ERA, 2.83 FIP, and K/BB above 5.0, combined with a 5.96 WPA and league best 4.76 WPA/LI is definitely worthy of an award honoring the best pitcher of the season. Halladay may faced stiffer competition, and twirled nine complete games, but honestly, Lee deserved this.

My anger stems from the balloting after that, even though a correction ultimately would not have changed the result. Roy Halladay finished in second place, which is appropriate. In any other season, Doc likely would have run away with the award, with his 2.78 ERA, 3.03 FIP, 246 innings logged, K/BB above 5.0, and 4.27 WPA/LI. He even received four first-place votes, meaning four writers and voters felt he legitimately had a better season than Lee. Lee, of course, finished in second place on each of those ballots.

Given how these two pitchers were, far and away, the cream of the crop in the junior circuit, I expected to see Halladay register anywhere from 20-24 of the remaining second place votes. How many did he register? 15. A little math shows then that, of the 24 remaining ballots that did not put Halladay as the top candidate, nine voters felt someone else was legitimately better and more deserving.

Now, given that Francisco Rodriguez broke the saves record this season, I then expected that those remaining nine second-place votes belonged to K-Rod. A quick glance at the total tallies showed that K-Rod only received seven of those nine second-place votes. So where did the other two go? Thanks for asking, they went to Daisuke Matsuzaka of the Red Sox. Yes, the same Daisuke that posted a 2.90 ERA, lower than Halladay, a 4.03 FIP, a full run lower than Halladay, a K/BB ratio under 1.70, and who didn’t even record 170 innings pitched.

Two voters felt that Daisuke had a better season than Halladay. Even using the W-L record, Daisuke did go 18-3, but Halladay won 20 games and did it on a team with an offense considerably worse than the Red Sox. Clearly, voters have to know this, right? Further, Daisuke wasn’t even the best pitcher on his own team, as Jon Lester ran away with those honors. And Lester received NO votes at all! In essence, we have a situation where two second-place votes were given to a pitcher who not only did not deserve them over the rightful owner, but had no business receiving more votes than another pitcher better than him on his own team.

With my anger brewing, my eyes shifted to the third-place column, where I expected to see that Roy Halladay had racked up 9 votes. After all, there are 28 ballots, and he received 4 first-place and 15 second-place votes. I haven’t taken arithmetic since the second grade, but that leaves nine unanswered ballots for Halladay. Guess how many third place votes he had. Six. Nine minus six equals three. That means… wait for it… three voters felt that Roy Halladay had no place on their ballot?

ARE YOU KIDDING ME? I mean, seriously, are you kidding me!? I don’t even care if Mariano Rivera had a much better season than K-Rod, or that Lester had a better year than Daisuke, or that Ervin Santana had a better year than BOTH Lester and Daisuke. No, what I care about is that three voters filled in a name under first place, second place, and third place, and none of those names were Roy Halladay. Three writers filled out AL Cy Young Award ballots with some combination of Lee-Rodriguez-Santana or Lee-Rodriguez-Rivera, or Lee-Rodriguez-Daisuke, or Lee-Daisuke-Mussina, or any of the other possibe combinations sans Halladay.

To me, this is absolutely atrocious, and if I were in charge, it would be grounds for revoking voting privileges. Even the caveman baseball stats peg Halladay as better than pretty much anyone other than Lee. I write two articles per day here at Fangraphs, 1-2 per week at Statistically Speaking, 4-8 a month at Baseball Prospectus, and chime in every now and then at The Hardball Times, WHILE managing the workload of a graduate business student, responsibilities as a screenwriter, a tax preparer, and a few other web-based jobs, and I was still able to find 10-15 minutes to really analyze the numbers of all of these candidates. None of this is designed to toot my own horn, but rather to show that I am equally as busy, if not moreso, than those with voting privileges.

And yet, someone who “doesn’t live in their mother’s basement,” who is “around the players” and “at the ballpark,” with nothing to do other than meet their deadline with an article full of drivel, cannot do the same? I honestly don’t know what else to say on this one. If Albert Pujols doesn’t win the NL MVP award, well…

< /rant >

Two trades in MLB today – Matthew will tackle the ridiculous Nick Swisher trade a little later on tonight, so for now, let’s focus on the less absurd Kevin Gregg deal.

The Marlins continue to dump anyone who will make more than minimum wage next year, sending their closer to the Cubs for minor league arm Jose Ceda. Gregg is the epitome of the “closers are made, not born” philosophy – he’s a decent enough reliever with a good fastball/slider combination and lousy command, who succeeded in the 9th inning because pitching one inning with a three run lead isn’t all that hard.

However, after two years as a successful closer, he’s going to get between $3 and $4 million in arbitration, thanks to his 61 saves in the last two years. Above all, that one statistic still does more to determine a reliever’s paycheck than any other number – if Gregg had pitched exactly the same way in the 8th inning, racking up holds instead of saves, he’d be looking at a fraction of the pay day. Such is the privileged life of the anointed closer.

For the Cubs, however, they acquired Gregg as a replacement for Kerry Wood, and odds are he’ll be slotted into the closer role in Chicago. The idea that Gregg is a suitable replacement and they won’t take a hit in terms of effectiveness is a bit laughable. Here are their 2008 performances:

BB/9: Wood, 2.44 – Gregg, 4.85
K/9: Wood, 11.40 – Gregg, 7.60
HR/9: Wood, 0.41 – Gregg, 0.39

FIP: Wood, 2.32 – Gregg, 3.84

Now, Wood is certainly something of a significant health risk, and there’s a decent case to be made that giving him a multi-year contract wouldn’t have been a great idea. But the Cubs are taking a huge step back in terms of quality of pitcher they’ll be using in the 9th inning by going from Wood to Gregg. Wood was, on a per inning basis, one of the game’s best relievers, blowing hitters away with his overpowering stuff. Gregg is just a guy, a fungible reliever who won’t kill you but isn’t a huge asset either.

Considering the leverage that closers get, it’s fair to say that the difference between Wood and Gregg could be 1-2 wins in 2009. I’m not sure the Cubs are in a position to be giving away wins like that. For a contending team with a big payroll, they should have done a lot better for their new relief ace.

The Graduate: Chase Headley | Born: May 1984 | Outfielder

Chase Headley has bounced around defensively a little bit as the Padres worked to get his potent bat into the Major League line-up. He has settled into the outfield for now and had a decent debut season. He hit .269/.337/.420 with an ISO of .151 in 331 MLB at-bats. His rates have some room to improve at 8.3 BB% and 31.4%. Bill James’ 2009 projections expect even better numbers from Headley in 2009.

The Riser: Matt Buschmann | Born: February 1984 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Matt Buschmann was stolen in the 15th round of the 2006 draft out of Vanderbilt University, which is a heavily-scouted college. He has made significant improvements in his pro career and is finally on the cusp of a big league role. Buschmann survived the 2007 while pitching at a very good hitters’ environment. His 2008 numbers were even better upon a promotion to Double-A and he allowed just 137 hits in 147 innings of work. His rates included 3.53 BB/9 and 7.18 K/9. His fastball is fringe-average at 88-90 mph, along with a potentially-plus slider and a developing change-up.

The Tumbler: Matt Antonelli | Born: April 1985 | Second Baseman

Matt Antonelli was the 17th overall pick of the 2006 draft and big things were expected from him… but his ability to hit completely disappeared in 2008 – at both the Major League and Minor League level. Antonelli hit just .215/.328/.322 at Triple-A and .193/.292/.281 in 57 big league at-bats. The Padres promoted Antonelli aggressively to Triple-A to begin the 2008 season after just 187 Double-A at-bats in 2007… and it appears to have been a mistake. Expect him to spend much of the 2009 season in Triple-A.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Cole Figueroa | Born: June 1987 | Second Baseman

As if the Padres did not already have enough second base prospects, with the likes of Eric Sogard and Matt Antonelli, the club picked up another talented player in Cole Figueroa. When I interviewed Matt LaPorta prior to the 2007 draft, he pointed to Figueroa as his most talented college teammate. Figueroa, who was drafted out of high school by the Blue Jays, had a solid pro debut by hitting .289/.413/.474 with an ISO of 184 in 114 short-season at-bats. He should open 2009 in High-A ball.

The ’09 Sleeper: Eric Sogard | Born: May 1986 | Second Baseman

It can be tough to project prospects in a system that has a minor league level that significantly favors either hitters or pitchers… but such is the case with San Diego’s High-A affiliate. Eric Sogard’s 2008 season, though, may have been a result of a breakout, rather than related to his environment. An excellent college hitter, Sogard hit .308/.397/.453 with an ISO of .146 in 536 at-bats in 2008. He slugged 42 doubles and 10 homers, while posting more walks (12.8 BB%) than strikeouts (11.6 K%). Neither of those rates are directly affected by playing in a hitters’ park.

Up Next: The Baltimore Orioles

With free agency kicking off tomorrow, the off season is just about to kick into high gear. Teams are going to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to acquire new talent, and potential contenders are going to be trading away young players to acquire the proven star to put them over the top. If you think your team has a chance to win in 2009, you’ll probably witness a press conference where your GM introduces you to the guy who will make the difference – the final piece of the puzzle.

As you’re watching, keep in mind that the hyperbole rarely matches reality. Let’s take a look at the big moves last year, and how the teams both gaining and losing the star performed in 2008.

Mets acquire Johan Santana from Minnesota for a group of prospects.

After winning 88 games and losing the division to Philly thanks to a late season collapse in 2007, the Mets went out and got the game’s best pitcher in order to shore up their rotation. The cost was four prospects and a $140 million contract, but it was Johan Santana…

The Mets won 89 games and lost the division to Philly thanks to a late season collapse.

The Twins, meanwhile, had struggled to just 79 wins in 2007, and were looking at a rebuilding effort. Santana was traded away, Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva left via free agency, and the team had to replace a lot of production with unproven minor leaguers.

The Twins won 88 games, a ten win improvement, and missed the playoffs by a single game.

Mariners acquire Erik Bedard from Baltimore for Adam Jones, George Sherrill, and a group of prospects.

I don’t know that I can write about this trade again without punching a wall, so here’s the short version – the Mariners collapsed, the Orioles improved, and it’s going down as one of the worst trades in franchise history. Let’s just move on.

Diamondbacks acquire Dan Haren from the A’s for a group of prospects.

The D’backs had just won 90 games and the N.L. West, so by adding Dan Haren to bolster their rotation behind Brandon Webb, the hope was that he’d be the guy who could make them a legitimate World Series contender. Instead, they won 82 games and ceded the division crown to the Dodgers.

Meanwhile, the A’s had won just 76 games with Haren the year before, but kicked off a big rebuilding by dealing away a lot of major league talent. After replacing them with prospects and low cost acquisitions, the A’s won 75 games, almost equaling their win total with Haren.

Tigers acquire Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis for Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, and a group of prospects.

Coming off an 88 win season, the Tigers wanted to track down the division winning Indians and added one of the game’s best young hitters in order to do so. Cabrera’s presence was supposed to make Detroit’s offense the most feared in the game, allowing them to just go toe to toe with their opponents and win by slugging. Instead, the team fell apart, the offense underachieved, and the Tigers won just 74 games, a huge step backwards from 2007.

The Marlins, perennial cost savers, had won just 71 games in 2007, even with Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez providing an offensive spark. With his big payday coming, they moved their best hitter and the team’s highest profile starting pitcher for a bunch of guys who weren’t quite major league ready. This step back in talent led to a 13 win improvement, as the Marlins won 84 games and hung around the wild card race for most of the summer.

Four big trades of all-star caliber players, and in every single case, the rebuilding team either held steady or got significantly better while the contender didn’t improve at all, and in some cases, got a lot worse. Clearly, this isn’t to say that the new players were the cause of the change in performance, but it should be an object lesson – teams are not built around one or two players. You need a good roster, not just a single all-star, to be a true contender.

They’re here!

The 2009 Bill James Handbook projections are now available on FanGraphs in the individual player pages. Big thanks to Baseball Info Solutions for letting us run these for the 3rd year in a row! If you want the sortable stats version and are not content with seeing one player at a time, you will have to purchase a copy directly from them.

Let’s play everyone’s favorite game – Guess That Stat-Line! The two pitching lines below are crude Marcel projections for 2009. See if you can notice any truly significant differences:

Player A: 4.39 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 3.32 BB/9, 6.35 K/9, Birthday on Jan. 12
Player B: 4.55 ERA, 4.36 FIP, 3.13 BB/9, 6.14 K/9, Birthday on Jan. 8

On one hand, Player A has an ERA 0.16 runs better per nine innings, while the other has an almost equal advantage in the FIP department. On the other hand, the ERA and FIP figures above are not all that impressive to begin with. Player A will strike out slightly more hitters, but walk more as well. Neither breaks the 2.0 K/BB barrier. So why bring these two somewhat average or below average projections to light?

Well, Player A was just traded by the Florida Marlins, and Player B is now rumored to be on their off-season shopping list. Yes, Player A = Scott Olsen, and Player B = Carl Pavano. Pavano last pitched for the Marlins in 2004, when he put together a very solid season: 31 GS, 222.1 innings with a 3.00 ERA, 3.54 FIP, and 1.98 BB/9. His season was so good that Brian Cashman decided Pavano could serve as a key cog in the Yankees rotation for the next four seasons. In actuality, Carl made just 26 starts from 2005-08, surrendering 182 hits in 145.2 innings, complete with a 5.00 ERA and miniscule 4.63 K/9.

The 4.63 K/9 is generous, as well, given that the same metric fell to 3.18 in 2007 and 3.93 in 2008. In 7 starts this past season, Pavano didn’t even average 5.0 IP/gm with his 34.1 innings logged, and he walked more hitters than usual, evidenced by his 2.62 BB/9. Now, seven starts is too small of a sample size to use as a concrete predictor of future performance, but it is clear even from his 2005 season that Pavano has lost a whole lot of his ability to strike batters out. On top of that, he has gone from 91-92 mph to 88 mph.

Put everything together, and the Marlins are considering signing a 33-year old pitcher who cannot strike batters out, seems to be on the verge of walking more, who has also lost significant velocity on his fastball. Who did they just trade away? A 25-yr old pitcher who has lost the ability to strike batters out, is walking plenty, and who has lost velocity on his fastball. In case you’re missing my point here, they are considering bringing in the equivalent of what they just traded away, plus eight more years in age, who will likely cost more money.

Over the last two weeks, I have used WPA, win probability added, to discuss the top ten offensive plays of the 2008 baseball season. The merits of this list could be debated to death, I am sure, but what cannot be denied is that these ten plays brought with them the biggest shifts in win expectancy. Hitting a three-run home run in the sixth inning, when down by a run may seem like a monumental play while watching the game in question, but a two-run walkoff home run with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning is likely going to vault a team from a 9-11% win expectancy to the 100% victory.

With that in mind, here is the top ten in its entirety:

10) Jason Michaels hit a two-run home run in the bottom of the tenth inning against the Cardinals on July 12. The Pirates trailed 10-6 entering the bottom of the ninth inning, and won 12-11 in ten innings. His play was worth a shift of 78.6%.

9) Nick Swisher, who didn’t make his first plate appearance until the 11th inning, hit a walkoff two-run homer in the bottom of the fourteenth against the Tigers on August 5. The home run was worth a 78.8% shift in expectancy.

8) Nate McLouth delivered a three-run home run in the top of the ninth, on April 14, off of Takashi Saito and the Dodgers. Unlike the other plays on this list, McLouth’s 79.6% shift in win expectancy was not a walk-off hit.

7) Nicknamed “the first half highlight” by, well, me, Josh Hamilton hit a walk-off dinger off of Francisco Rodriguez prior to the all star break. The home run, which occurred on July 9, saw a shift of 82.9% in win expectancy.

6) This was probably the oddest finish to any game this season. The Giants led the DBacks on September 10, 3-2, as the top of the ninth began. Chris Young hit a two-run triple to give the Snakes the 4-3 lead, before Eugenio Velez hit a two-run triple of his own to win the game for the Giants in the bottom half. Velez’s triple brought with it an expectancy shift of 83%.

5) On June 5, Jason Giambi and his moustache provided an 89.6% shift in win expectancy when he blasted a two-run walkoff home run off of BJ Ryan and the Blue Jays.

4) Two days later, on June 7, Cody Ross of the Marlins provided the fourth biggest play of the season, worth 89.8%, when he lined a two-run homer with a 1-1 count off of Francisco Cordero.

3) On May 2, Pat Burrell hit a two-run walkoff home run off of Giants closer Brian Wilson, an expectancy shift of 89.95%.

2) June 29, Ronnie Belliard delivered a two-run walkoff home run off of George Sherrill in an interleague battle for Maryland supremacy. The dinger brought with it an expectancy shift of 90.05%.

1) Finally, on July 12, David DeJesus hit, you guessed it, a walkoff two-run homer, off of Brandon Morrow. His home run, 90.36% worth of WPA, was the biggest play of the 2008 season.

And there you have it, the top ten offensive plays of the season. Brian Wilson appeared twice on this list: he gave up Young’s two-run triple in the top of the ninth in #6, before being bailed out by Velez, and gave up the walkoff to Burrell in #3. #1 and #10 both occurred on the same day, July 12. Three days prior, Hamilton hit his much shown home run off of K-Rod, meaning three of the top plays of the entire season occurred within four days of each other.