Friends, Coloradans, baseball fans, lend me your eyes – I come to bury Greg Smith, not to praise him.

Okay, that’s a bit melodramatic, but a eulogy for the near term success of Smith’s career is probably not out of place. For Rockies fans hoping that they just got a solid young starting pitcher in return for Matt Holliday, I’m sorry, but I have some bad news.

Yes, Greg Smith just posted a 4.16 ERA in 190 innings as a 24-year-old rookie. But unfortunately, those results just aren’t all that predictive, and the markers that we look for in identifying his true talent level, which is predictive, are not nearly as positive.

Here’s what we know about Greg Smith that could inform us about his future in Colorado.

He doesn’t throw very hard. His average fastball was just 87.6 MPH – the 9th slowest average fastball of any pitcher in baseball who threw at least 180 innings last year. Toss out Tim Wakefield because of the knuckleball factor, and the guys with sub-88 MPH fastballs are all command artists who pound the strike zone and don’t walk anyone.

That doesn’t describe Smith, unfortunately. 40.1% of his pitches thrown were balls, which is below average. Compare with fellow soft-tosser Andy Sonnanstine, who threw just 32.9% of his pitches out of the strike zone. Because Smith doesn’t throw hard, and he doesn’t throw strikes, he combines the bad mixture of both an above average walk rate (4.11 BB/9) and a below average strikeout rate (5.25 K/9).

It’s possible to succeed without a great BB/K rate, but it’s not easy. You have to limit the amount of home runs you allow, and the easiest way to do that is by pitching low in the strike zone and not allowing fly balls. If they hit it on the ground, it’s not going over the wall, after all. Well, Greg Smith isn’t very good at that, either – he posted a 45.5% FB% last year, third highest in baseball. Only Oliver Perez and Wakefield allowed more fly balls last year, and both of them have struggled with the long ball throughout their career.

So, we could describe Smith as a soft-tossing flyball machine with below average command and no out pitch. That’s not a great package to start off with, but then you transport that particular set of skills to Coors Field, where lazy fly balls go over the wall and breaking balls don’t move as much, and you’ve got a recipe for disaster.

Honestly, I feel bad for Smith. After a successful rookie season, he has to be thinking that there’s some good stuff in store for him in the major leagues. In reality, he’s now been put into the absolute worst context he could possibly try to survive in, and his uphill battle to fight regression has now become something like climbing Mt. Everest.

Good luck, Greg – you’re going to need a lot of it.

This week’s salary dump by the Florida Marlins will definitely benefit the Washington Nationals. The trade sent established Major League players Josh Willingham, an outfielder, and Scott Olsen, a left-handed pitcher in need of an attitude adjustment, to Washington for three prospects. Yesterday, you read about Dave Cameron’s take on the Major Leaguers in the trade.

The three prospects obtained by Florida include: second baseman Emilio Bonifacio, infielder Jake Smolinski, and right-hander P.J. Dean. I’ll touch on Bonifacio with a little more depth tomorrow over at RotoGraphs, because he has the most potential of the three for regular playing time at the Major League level in 2009. Basically, he’s really fast, doesn’t walk enough and strikes out too much. He hit .243/.296/.337 in 169 MLB at-bats in 2008 at the age of 23.

Smolinski was a 2007 second round pick out of an Illinois high school. He was a shortstop in high school, played outfield in his pro debut and then spent 2008 at second base, where he failed to set the world on fire. The 19-year-old hit .306/.364/.408 with no home runs in 98 short-season at-bats in 2008. He also hit .261/.330/.402 with four home runs in 184 A-ball at-bats. He posted rates of 9.4 BB% and 17.9 K% at the higher level. His ISO increased from .102 in the short-season league to .141 in A-ball. Smolinski is your basic B-level prospect whose value could easily go way up or way down in 2009.

Dean is my favorite player in the deal. He is a young, projectable right-hander who currently throws 90-92 mph with room to grow. Dean also has a curveball with plus potential and a developing change-up. A 2007 seventh round pick out of high school, Dean has spent the past two seasons in short-season ball. In 2008, he posted a 1.57 ERA (but 3.40 FIP) with 26 hits allowed in 46 innings pitched. He also had rates of 3.13 BB/9 and 6.65 K/9. In two seasons totaling 77 innings, Dean has allowed just three home runs.

The trade between Florida and Washington will definitely favor the latter organization for at least the next three seasons. But if either Dean or Smolinski reaches his potential, it could swing back to Florida’s favor (at least until said player gets too expensive).

The Graduate: Evan Longoria | Born: October 1985 | Third Baseman

Tampa Bay did not graduate many rookies in 2008 while racing towards the organization’s first World Series appearance. The club obviously chose quality over quantity as Evan Longoria snatched up the Rookie of the Year award this week after hitting .272/.343/.531 with 27 home runs in 448 at-bats. Longoria posted rates of 9.3 BB% and 27.2 K%, as well as an ISO of .259. Defensively, he made 12 errors with a .963 fielding percentage and showed solid range at third.

The Riser: Jeremy Hellickson | Born: April 1987 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Jeremy Hellickson is quickly becoming the best pitching prospect in the system – not named David Price. The right-hander was originally drafted in the fourth round of the 2005 draft and moved slowly during his first three pro seasons, peaking at A-ball. He jumped on the fast track in 2008, though. After allowing 64 hits in 76.2 innings with a 2.00 ERA in High-A ball, Hellickson was promoted to Double-A, where he made 13 starts. He allowed 84 hits in 75.1 innings but posted excellent rates of 1.79 BB/9 and 9.44 K/9. His biggest issue at Double-A was the home run – he allowed 15 (1.79 HR/9) and must show better command within the strike zone against the more advanced hitters.

The Tumbler: Chris Mason | Born: July 1984 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Chris Mason is not often mentioned in the same breath as Jacob McGee or Wade Davis despite posting solid numbers – well, until 2008. Mason struggled mightily in 2008 and posted a 6.21 ERA during his first shot at Triple-A. The former second round pick out of UNC-Greensboro allowed 144 hits in 108.2 innings of work. He also posted rates of 3.40 BB/9 and 7.45 K/9. Both those rates are respectable, which gives hope for a significant rebound but Mason’s walk rate did increase by about 1.00 BB/9. He may be better suited to a relief role due to an average fastball in the 87-89 mph range.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Jake Jefferies | Born: October 1987 | Catcher

A solid all-around player, Jake Jefferies was nabbed in the third round of the 2008 draft out of college. He had a solid pro debut with a line of .315/.371/.433 in 238 short-season at-bats. Jefferies also posted encouraging rates of 8.1 BB% and 9.2 K% with an ISO of .118. The catcher is currently a solid contact hitter and is working on learning to drive the ball. A left-handed batter, Jefferies is also a solid-average defensive catcher (although he threw out just four of 23 runners attempting to steal in 2008) and he could end up as a third-round steal.

The ’09 Sleeper: Nick Barnese | Born: January 1989 | Right-Handed Pitcher

There are a lot of talented pitchers in the system and Nick Barnese can sometimes get overlooked after spending the past two seasons in short-season ball. However, the right-hander posted solid numbers in 2008: 52 hits allowed in 66 innings pitched, along with rates of 3.27 BB/9 and 11.45 K/9. He also allowed just one home runs all season and posted a FIP of 1.99. The former third round pick features a low-90s fastball that flirts with 95 mph, as well as a slider and a change-up.

Up Next: The San Diego Padres

On Monday, we looked at Matt Holliday’s potential value to the A’s, and how his acquisition could boost Oakland’s chances for the postseason in 2009. We know the A’s are getting a good player. But what about the Rockies? Is the haul they’re getting for Holliday going to allow them to get back on the winning track?

Let’s start with Carlos Gonzalez, the centerpiece prospect of a major trade for the second time in as many years. Gonzalez is an extremely athletic, left-handed hitting center fielder with power, and that skill set doesn’t grow on trees. It’s those tools that have made him valuable enough to be dealt for both Dan Haren and now Holliday, as it’s pretty easy for scouts to see the potential for an all-star center fielder.

However, the flip side to that coin is that Gonzalez has now had two organizations deal him away in 12 months, and it’s pretty rare to find an elite player who two organizations passed when he was near major league ready. It happens (Jason Bay, Adrian Gonzalez), but it’s rare. So, what might the D’backs and A’s have seen that would lead them to give up on Gonzalez’s upside?

Well, to start, his approach at the plate can only be described as poor. In 316 major league plate appearances, he swung at pitches out of the strike zone 32% of the time and only made contact in 45% of those swings. In other words, he just swung and missed at a lot of pitches that were going to be called balls. Now, there are players who swing at pitches of the strike zone a lot – Vladimir Guerrero is famous for this, swinging at 45% of all balls he sees. However, he makes contact 70% of the time he swings at a pitch out of the strike zone.

In fact, among major league players who swung at balls 30% of the time or more, every single one made contact half the time (okay, Aaron Rowand’s 49.71% is not exactly half, but let’s round up). Most of them made contact 60-70% of the time, showing that they were chasing pitches because they could hit them, not because they didn’t understand the strike zone.

Perhaps it was just nerves, and he’ll adjust as he grows, but in his first taste of major league pitching, Gonzalez showed a minor league approach. That approach is going to significantly limit his offensive upside, and giving him a narrow path to success. Essentially, with that kind of swing-at-anything mentality, his upside is narrowed to something like 2008 Torii Hunter – a .280/.340/.470 guy who combines power and good defense to be a +3 to +3.5 win player.

There’s certainly a lot of value in having a 23-year-old with +3 to +4 win upside, but if that’s his peak, he’s not quite as shiny as he may have appeared previously.

The good news for Rockies fans is that he does appear to be a quality defender – the A’s fans rated him a 74 on the Fan’s Scouting Report, and the +/- rankings had him at +10 plays in only half a season of work, so while the sample is small, it looks like he’ll be an asset with his glove. That might be necessary to keep him in the line-up, however, because the questions about his bat look legitimate.

Well, what do you know? We have finally made it to the top offensive play of this entire 2008 baseball season, and it happens to belong to a member of the Kansas City Royals. David DeJesus, to be exact. Somehow, the Washington Nationals, Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals, and Seattle Mariners—four of the worst teams in baseball this past season—managed to find themselves involved in the top two offensive plays of the year. Ain’t baseball great? DeJesus’s big play, which will be prefaced and summarized below, provided a win expectancy swing of 90.36%, about one-third to one-half of a percentage point ahead of Ronnie Belliard‘s second-best play, and Pat Burrell’s third-place home run.

The game took place on July 12, in a matchup between Gil Meche and Jarrod Washburn. It also saw Horacio Ramirez, then a member of the Royals, take on his former teammates in Seattle. Would Horacio seek revenge? Oh, that’s right, he isn’t good enough to merit a storyline. Moving on. Take a look at the big spike at the end, as it is the biggest such spike this past season:

DeJesus has had an interesting career to date. His numbers in 2005, 2006, and 2008, are eerily similar, not just in raw totals but rates as well. 2007 appears to be an outlier, as his .291 BABIP was much lower than the .330+ marks he showed himself capable of in 2005, 2006, and 2008. Not many fans know about his production and potential, but he managed to put the Kansas City Royals in first place in at least one category this year: the top offensive plays.

After giving up a leadoff single to Ichiro Suzuki, Meche retired the next three hitters in the top of the first. His counterpart Washburn did not fare as well, as the Royals tacked on two quick runs on the heels of singles by Mark Grudzielanek and Alex Gordon. After one inning, the Royals led by a score of 2-0, that would last for no more than an inning. In the bottom of the second, Mark Teahen hit into a fielder’s choice, scoring Esteban German, and extending the lead to three runs.

After five innings, Meche was absolutely cruising, having walked nobody, allowed no runs to score, and given up just four hits, two of which belonged to Tug Hulett. In the sixth, however, he fell apart. Ichiro once again led off with a single, and two batters later, scored on a home run by Raul Ibanez. Jose Vidro then followed with a single. Adrian Beltre added a single of his own. With two on, and one out, Jeremy Reed hit a double, scoring both Vidro and Beltre, and giving the Mariners the 4-3 lead. The Royals’ win expectancy began the inning at 86.9%, and by the time it ended, had plummeted to 38.9%, a dropoff of 48 percentage points.

When the bottom of the seventh came to its close, their win expectancy had further been reduced to 24.9%. A 1-2-3 inning later from Horacio Ramirez, it had been nominally increased to 30%, but their offense appeared stagnant, and it was only a matter of time before the hard-throwing Brandon Morrow would enter the game. Sean Green and Arthur Rhodes kept the Royals off the scoreboards in the eighth, meaning the ninth inning would begin with the Royals having just a 16% probability of winning the game.

Horacio added another 1-2-3 inning, giving the Royals a 19.7% probability of winning as Morrow entered. John Buck struck out looking, and Ross Gload grounded out to second. Their win expectancy was now a measly 4.6%. Billy Butler then walked, to give the Royals a glimmer of hope. He was lifted in favor of speedster Joey Gathright, who would look to get himself into scoring position for a potential tie game. He didn’t even need to, as only a few pitches later, with just a 9.6% probability of winning, David DeJesus launched a two-run homer into orbit, blowing the save for Morrow, and winning the game for the Royals. His home run, worth a swing in expectancy of 90.36%, was the top offensive play of the 2008 baseball season.

A continuation of the series of retrospectives looking back at the regular season and how teams fared. They will be presented, from first to last, in order of their run differential as given by the BaseRuns formula and adjusted for strength of schedule, which I feel is the best measurement of a team’s actual talent level.

Number Twenty three: Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles got off to a fast start this season thanks to some great defense, but even then there were warning signs about the pitching staff vastly over performing. Those signs turned out to be correct as the Orioles fell off dramatically and ended up around where most people thought they would be, last in the East and among the worst teams in the league.

What was a surprise was an offense far more potent than expected. BaseRuns puts them at 785 runs scored, good for 12th in baseball. Nick Markakis, Melvin More and Brian Roberts all had incrementally better seasons over 2007. Luke Scott and Adam Jones were good enough with the bat to not draw any negative attention, but the big story came from Aubrey Huff, who came almost out of nowhere to post a .304/.360/.552 line.

The run prevention though is an entirely different story with BaseRuns clocking them at 875 runs allowed, the third worst total in all of baseball ahead of only the Pirates and Rangers. Baltimore’s team defensive rankings held about the same overall depending on which measurement you use, but the means to that end changed dramatically. Where as John Dewan’s fielding metrics have Balitmore as around average across all fields in 2007, the addition of Luke Scott and Adam Jones to the outfield in 2008 boosted them to a hearty +38 plays in the outfield this season. However, they suffered a corresponding drop in the infield which suggests I may have been wrong in my assessment of Miguel Tejada’s defense.

Regardless, the pitching was the culprit here as the Orioles boasted one of baseball’s worst rotations. Steve Trachsel was an unmitigated disaster as was Dennis Sarfate and Adam Loewen. Daniel Cabrera managed to get much worse and Radhames Liz and Brian Burres wouldn’t have seen the light of day on any competent squad.

It wasn’t just the rotation though as the bullpen gave up its share of runs. Outside of George Sherrill and Jim Johnson there was little to be excited about and a few like Jamie Walker and Fernando Cabrera to be really upset at. The Orioles have some fantastic young hitting talent, with more on the way in Matt Weiters, but they are severely lacking in pitching talent right now and given the state of the AL East, it looks like it will be awhile before Baltimore is in the discussion.

As we are all aware, Evan Longoria and Geovany Soto took home Rookie of the Year hardware for the 2008 season. They were both incredibly deserving, as Longoria produced an .874 OPS and 1.71 WPA/LI in just 122 games, while adding plus defense at third base. Soto posted an OPS of .868 and a 1.36 WPA/LI as the Cubs backstop. There were several other players who may have won the award in another season, such as Mike Aviles, Hiroki Kuroda, and Joey Votto, but one player that does not fit this bill is Edinson Volquez.

Now, before you jump on my back for saying Volquez deserved no part of the Rookie of the Year award, let me explain myself! It has nothing to do with his statistics: a 3.21 ERA, 9.46 K/9, and 1.67 WPA/LI definitely deserves plenty of recognition. It’s just that, well, Edinson Volquez… is… not… a… rookie.

Yep, that’s correct, he is not a rookie, and yet he managed to receive three second-place votes in this year’s balloting, finishing fourth on the National League ballot. The overall qualifying rules for determining a rookie are not that tough, either, as in no prior season or seasons, can a player accrue more than 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched. In 2005, Volquez logged 12.2 innings. He added another 33.1 in 2006, and an additional 34 in 2007, giving him exactly 80 innings pitched entering this season. Had he produced this year’s numbers last season he would have qualified, but he was 30 innings over the qualifying total entering 2008, and yet this error still managed to happen.

Now, I’m not going to say newspaper writers or those voting are idiots, or anything like that, or add in any hot-shot about their evaluation techniques, but I will say this: I took part in three different season-long polls during which multiple bloggers voted on the Rookie of the Year, Cy Young Award, and MVP each and every week, and we knew from the get-go that Volquez was not a rookie. If we—bloggers in our mothers basement—knew this guy was not a rookie, how is it that Edinson managed to finish in fourth place on the official ballot?

I guess from now on, Major League Baseball needs to clarify with the award-voters that just because you have not heard of someone, it does not automatically make them a rookie. Now I’m waiting for a story to surface that Carlos Quentin and his 395 pre-2008 at-bats finished in third place in the junior circuit. This may be an easy mistake, and ultimately it did not affect the overall finish in the National League, but many fans take these awards very seriously, and if those voting are not even going to follow the rules or do a little bit of research, their voting privileges should be revoked.

The Graduate: J.R. Towles | Born: February 1984 | Catcher

J.R. Towles came into the 2008 season as the No. 1 prospect in the Astros (weak) minor league system. He promptly fell on his face and was an offensive mess. Towles hit .137/.250/.253 with an ISO of .116 in 146 at-bats. He rebounded in the minors to hit more than .300 at Triple-A, but the damage has been done to his reputation as a potential front line catcher. His BABIP was a lousy .157 and he showed a little bit of patient with a walk rate of 9.9%. Towles is definitely a better hitter than he showed in 2008 but Jason Castro (the Astros’ first round draft pick in 2008) is now breathing down his neck.

The Riser: Drew Sutton | Born: June 1983 | Second Baseman

Keeping in mind that the Astros have one of the worst minor league systems in Major League Baseball, Drew Sutton was no where to be found at the end of 2007 when discussing prospects in the organization. Fast-forward a year and you have a potential long-term replacement for Craig Biggio. Sutton spent the 2008 season in Double-A (admittedly his second straight season at that level) and hit .317/.404/.523 with 20 homers and 102 RBI in 520 at-bats. His ISO jumped from .119 in 2007 to .206 in 2008. He’s also good for 20 stolen bases in a season and balances out his strikeouts (18.8 K%) with a healthy number of walks (12.8%). Sutton is continuing his hot season by hitting .370 (1.175 OPS) in the Arizona Fall League with six homers in 81 at-bats.

The Tumbler: Max Sapp | Born: February 1988 | Catcher

It was a bad year for incumbent catching prospects in the Astros system. Max Sapp, the Astros 2006 first round pick, had a dismal year while repeating A-ball. His line of .200/.284/.294, with rates of 10.5 BB% and 30.2 K%, was a steep drop from an already-disappointing 2007 season. Defensively, Sapp showed some improvements by cutting his passed balls in half to eight and throwing out 26 of 78 base runners (33%). Only 20, the catcher still has time to resurrect his career.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Ross Seaton | Born: September 1989 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Ross Seaton was considered the best prep pitching prospect in Texas, so it is no surprise that he was nabbed by Houston. Seaton, though, was projected to go as high as the supplemental first round of the 2008 draft. He lasted until the supplemental third round and Houston happily grabbed him and gave him an over-slot deal. Seaton had a rough, but brief, introduction to professional baseball by allowing eight hits in four innings of work, along with two walks and four strikeouts. Seaton has above-average control for his age, as well as a low-to-mid-90s fastball. He also features a slider and change-up.

The ’09 Sleeper: Koby Clemens | Born: December 1986 | Catcher

Despite posting lackluster numbers in his career, Koby Clemens has always been in the spotlight because of who his father is… or was. Recognizing that Clemens was not going to make it as a third baseman, the organization converted the hard-working youngster to a catcher and he showed some promise in 2008 – but he remains very raw. Offensively, he maintained his stats reasonably well considering he spent the year focusing on his defence. Clemens managed a line of .268/.367/.423 with an ISO of .155. He also posted rates of 13.6 BB% and 25.5 K%. Defensively, he made eight errors, committed 31 passed balls and threw out 45 of 130 base runners (35%) – while learning to play the position in-game and at the High-A ball level.

Up Next: The Tampa Bay Rays

Overshadowed by the Matt Holliday trade was a smaller deal pulled off yesterday beteween the Marlins and Nationals. While it doesn’t contain an all-star, it’s an interesting deal nonetheless.

The Nationals acquired LHP Scott Olsen and OF/1B Josh Willingham from Florida in exchange for 2B Emilio Bonifacio, RHP P.J. Dean, and SS Jake Smolinski.

At first glance, the Nationals would seem to be the big winners here. They get the two players that most baseball fans have heard of, and both Olsen and Willingham are young and theoretically headed for their prime. Willingham’s a career .266/.361/.472 hitter, combing walks and power into a package that makes him an above average hitter. Olsen, meanwhile, is a 24-year-old lefty with nearly 600 major league innings under his belt, and he was considered one of the game’s best pitching prosepcts a few years ago. Both guys the Nationals got have some abilities.

But clearly, the Marlins determined that they’d be better off without both, and they might not be wrong. Let’s start with Olsen – superficially, his 4.20 ERA in 200 innings last year has value, especially as a young southpaw, but that was a complete fluke. He actually took a huge step back in his performance, thanks to a drop of 2.3 MPH in his fastball and a corresponding collapse of his strikeout rate. Take a look at the graph of his career K/9 marks:

That’s not exactly what you consider improvement. Olsen’s turning into a pitch-to-contact flyball starter with bad command, and pitchers with that skillset struggle to be anything better than a marginal #5 starter.

As for Willingham, the bat is nice, but his glove in the outfield is absolutely atrocious. By pretty much every defensive metric out there, Willingham gives back 10 to 15 runs a season with his poor glove work, essentially canceling out the decency of his bat. Terrible defenders with just good but not great offensive performances are not particularly valuable players, and that’s the category Willingham falls into.

Neither of the guys the Nationals got back are as good as their reputations, and they’re both unlikely to help turn around the fortunes of a struggling Washington ballclub. That doesn’t necessarily make this a bad deal for them, however – the three guys they gave up are nothing special either, so they’re essentially taking a flier on Olsen’s velocity returning or Willingham improving his defense – if either happens, they’re the clear winners of this deal, as the Marlins just didn’t get much upside coming back their way. For Florida, this was a clear salary dump.

The real lesson from this deal may be that Jim Bowden continues to not care about defense or actual performance, and continues to acquire players on the strength of their minor league reputations. It didn’t work in Cincy, it hasn’t worked in Washington, and I wonder how many more chances he’s going to get to keep rebuilding past Baseball America Top 100 lists and call it a roster.

Ronnie Belliard is not an all-star, a future MVP, or someone that will find himself enshrined in Cooperstown someday. He is not even that good of a player to begin with, coupling about average offense with below average defense. For his 11-year career, Ronnie has a WPA/LI of -1.23, making him a little over one win worse than an average player, offensively. He has always shown himself capable of some power, however, and this season, despite playing in just 96 games, he produced the best numbers of his career.

Overall, in those 96 games and 337 plate appearances, Belliard hit .284/.372/.473, an .845 OPS, and a 1.40 WPA/LI, the latter two of which are career bests. He also hit 22 doubles and managed to match last year’s home run total of 11 in a little more than half of the at-bats. One of those home runs came on June 29, in a game where Orioles visited the Nationals. This home run just so happens to be the runner-up to the biggest offensive play of the 2008 season.

While our third biggest play involved a pitching matchup of two hurlers who will be lucky to even have a job in 2009 (Kyle Kendrick and Patrick Misch), this game saw a beautiful pitching duel between Jeremy Guthrie and Jason Bergmann, both of which can be slotted in for 30+ starts next season. After Bergmann stranded a runner in the top of the first, Aaron Boone knocked in a run off of Guthrie on a fielder’s choice in the bottom half of the frame. The Nationals led 1-0 and literally nothing would happen until the top of the seventh inning.

With Bergmann absolutely cruising along, Luke Scott knotted the game up with a solo home run. He would get out of the inning without further damage. Guthrie pitched a scoreless bottom half of the seventh, before both starters departed. They had each pitched extremely well, and left with idential WPAs of .266. The bullpens were equally effective, however, as the eighth, ninth, tenth, and eleventh innings came and went with nary a run crossing the plate.

Luis Ayala began the top of the twelfth by surrendering back to back singles to Nick Markakis and Aubrey Huff. With runners on first and second, he retired Kevin Millar. Charlie Manning then entered the game and struck out Luke Scott, before himself being lifted in favor of Joel Hanrahan. In quite the crucial plate appearance—a leverage index of 4.47—Jones singled to rightfield, scoring Markakis and giving the Orioles a 2-1 lead.

George Sherrill came in, hoping to close the door, which, by my tone and the earlier text quite apparently did not happen. At the beginning of the frame, though, the Nationals had a 20.3% probability of winning. Pete Orr struck out to kick things off, reducing this probability to 11.4%. Their win probability was further reduced when Paul LoDuca followed with a groundout to third base. As Dmitri Young stepped up to bat, the Nationals had justs a 4.8% shot at winning this game.

Young showed patience and worked a walk, increasing the Nationals’ win expectancy to a whopping 9.95%. With a 2-2 count, Ronnie Belliard then harnessed his power, and belted a line drive home run over the wall to end the game. This game was rather meaningless in the grand scheme of the 2008 baseball season, but Belliard’s walkoff, which produced an expectancy swing of 90.05%, the second biggest offensive play of the year, just goes to show that even the worst of teams can produce some exciting action.