Today, we keep looking at some teams that have legitimate hope, so it gets harder from here on out. And, for those of you who haven’t seen the previous parts (which are linked below), keep in mind that this is a forward looking exercise – we are evaluating clubs on their overall ability to contend for a World Series title in the future. We are not evaluating how they have performed historically. This is about the health of each organization going forward.

Rankings So Far

#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies
#22: Detroit Tigers

#21: St. Louis Cardinals

Ownership: B-

Bill DeWitt Jr’s ownership of the Cardinals has been a success, as the team has been well capitalized and fairly well run during his tenure. There have been a few hiccups, however – former GM Walt Jocketty left after the front office suffered a split over the role of Jeff Luhnow and his team of statistical analysts. The team had a lengthy courtship with Indians assistant GM Chris Antonetti, who eventually spurned them to stay in Cleveland, and DeWitt ended up turning to in house candidate John Mozeliak to run the club. While there’s enough room in the budget for the team to contend, DeWitt could serve to be a bit less hands on as an owner – you don’t like to see good baseball men leave because of internal power struggles, and that DeWitt wasn’t able to figure out how to get Jocketty and Luhnow to work together is something of a black mark on his leadership. But, overall, he provides the team with the necessary resources to win and encourages them to do so, and ownership isn’t a significant weakness in St. Louis.

Front Office:: C

Mozeliak, as a new GM taking over a franchise already in position to win, was in something of a strange circumstance. He had to add a few pieces to help push the team over the top, which is not usually the task handed to a new GM hire. Overall, Mozeliak’s pick of which players to retain and add have been a bit less than inspiring. He did a good job of picking up Kyle Lohse on the cheap last spring, but then fell into the trap of signing him to a 4 year, $44 million contract to keep him from free agency. The Joel Pineiro extension was inexplicably bad. The Adam Kennedy situation was mishandled, and the organization continues to let Tony LaRussa’s personal issues with players interfere with their roster management decisions. With Albert Pujols in his prime, the Cardinals should be focused on trying to win rings while they have the best player in baseball, but they made barely a wimper in the best buyer’s market we’ve seen in years. There are some good things going on in St. Louis’ front office, but Mozeliak has to show more as a GM if these team is going to be a perpetual contender.

Major League Talent: B-

This rank is almost all Pujols. He’s amazing, and the single reason the Cardinals are contenders. Without him, they’d be in a lot of trouble. Yes, Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel, Troy Glaus, Yadier Molina, and Adam Wainwright are quality players, but there’s expected regression, a couple of expiring contracts, and injury concerns with the second tier talents in the organization. The team has too many outfielders but a big question mark at second base, and the starting rotation is both injury prone and thin. There’s some good young arms in the bullpen, but the manager doesn’t like arms. Overall, it’s a collection of players that are held together by the hall of fame first baseman, but could stand to be significantly better. Especially for a team that should be trying to win the whole thing.

Minor League Talent: B

Colby Rasmus is one of the best prospects in the game, and he should be ready to help the team in 2009, if they can find room for him in an already crowded outfield. Brett Wallace is a big bat, but his defense at third is up for question, and a team with Pujols on the roster won’t consider moving him to first, so he’s going to have to stick at the hot corner. The top pitching prospect is a reliever, and while he’s a good relief prospect, that’s still not an ideal situation. However, the club does have some depth with guys like Daryl Jones and David Freese, so the dropoff after the top couple of guys isn’t as severe as it is with a few other clubs we’ve looked at.

Overall: C+

The Cardinals are an interesting organization. On one hand, they do a lot of stuff pretty well, they have the best player in baseball, they have some good young talent, and a manager with a long track record of winning baseball games. On the other hand, they simply haven’t put enough good players around Pujols in order to be a favorite to contend, the manager keeps running players out of town, the talent in the organization isn’t evenly distributed across positions, the team keeps giving too much money to mediocre pitchers, and they had to reshuffle their front office after a power struggle led to the GM leaving. Talk about a mixed bag. St. Louis needs to be maximizing their world series chances while Pujols is around, and for not being aggressive enough to do so, they’ve ended up in a spot where they are neither a top team now nor in the future. They’re going to have to commit to a direction pretty soon, or they’ll flounder as a good but not great organization that rarely plays in October.

Today, we keep looking at some teams that have legitimate hope, so it gets harder from here on out. And, for those of you who haven’t seen the previous parts (which are linked below), keep in mind that this is a forward looking exercise – we are evaluating clubs on their overall ability to contend for a World Series title in the future. We are not evaluating how they have performed historically. This is about the health of each organization going forward.

Rankings So Far

#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies

#22: Detroit Tigers

Ownership: C

Over the years, Mike Ilitch has provided significant capital to provide his team with a big market budget. He has a reputation for being a bit too hands on, but that hasn’t manifest itself in any real ways over the last couple of years. To boot, the Tigers have a new ballpark that generates solid revenues for them. So why the low grade? The economy. Of all the cities in America, Detroit is the one with the most uncertain future, as the fate of the automakers continues to be a day-to-day thing. Michigan has the highest unemployment rate in the country, and they’re feeling the brunt of the recession more so than any other state. Given the way the economy is going, especially in Detroit, it’s hard to see the Tigers being able to sustain the payrolls they’ve been running for the last few years. If they are forced to cut back on salaries, they’d have some tough decisions to make, as a huge part of their payroll is tied up in players with negative trade value. The only way for them to slash payroll quickly would be trade the likes of Magglio Ordonez and Miguel Cabrera, and a Tigers team that is forced to move those two in salary dumps is just not very good.

Front Office: B-

Dave Dombrowski will never be mistaken for one of the new, Ivy league type GMs. He believes in tools, scouting, and gut feelings. But he’s really good at it. He has a terrific eye for talent, and he knows how to put together a roster. However, his old school leanings have led him down some paths of poor decisions – he’s too quick to give long term contracts to aging players and pitchers, and those decisions have put the Tigers in a budgetary bind. Given the necessary resources, he can build a championship team, but some mistakes on his part may be part of the reason that he might not have the necessary resources going forward.

Major League Roster: B-

This is still an impressive core of position player talent that Dombrowski has assembled. Curtis Granderson is a terrific player, Placido Polanco is one of the more underrated players in the game, Ordonez/Cabrera/Guillen is still a fierce middle of the order, and Inge/Laird/Everett should provide enough defensive value to make up for their weak bats. But oh, the pitching. Jeremy Bonderman’s elbow still hurts. Dontrelle Willis still can’t throw strikes. Nate Robertson is struggling to beat out a 20-year-old for the #5 spot in the rotation after posting an ugly ERA in 2008. Justin Verlander is very good, but it gets pretty ugly pretty fast once his turn in the rotation is done. The combination of a questionable pitching staff and an aging group of position players puts the Tigers in a tough spot – their window to win is still open for 2009, but maybe not for 2010, and they might not have enough arms to get to the playoffs this year. If they have to rebuild, Granderson, Verlander, and Porcello are a good nucleus, but there’s not enough young talent around them to do it quickly.

Minor League Talent: D

Rick Porcello is a terrific arm, but doesn’t come without questions. Even with his sinking fastball and groundball rate, 5.2 K/9 in the Florida State League is a little disconcerting. But once you get past him, it gets ugly in a hurry. Almost all of their premium talent was traded away in the Cabrera deal, and what’s left is lower ceiling role player prospects. They just lack prospects that could legitimately replace some of their aging major league core, and besides Porcello, they don’t have any good arms to bolster the pitching ranks. It’s a farm system in bad shape, and for a team headed towards rebuilding, that’s a rough combination.

Overall: C+

In a better economy, or a different city, they’d be more in the 12-17 range, because the major league roster is still pretty good, and the guys in charge are dedicated to winning and know how to build a roster. But the combination of economic hardships in their home state, some really bad contracts on the books, expected decline from key players, and a lack of depth puts the Tigers in a position where the franchise has a lot of downside. It could get bad in a hurry, and take a long time to fix. Of course, with a few savvy moves and some good fortune, they could also be throwing a parade in November, so it’s not all doom and gloom. But there’s more risk involved with the Tigers future than pretty much any other club, and that possibility weighs down their future chances for success.

There are now career leaderboards for the Standard, Advanced, Batted Ball, and Win Values stats sections for both batters and pitchers. The Win Values and Batted Ball leaderboards do not include data prior to 2002 because we just don’t have that data yet. Also, I’ve set the minimum PA and IP at 1000, but you can change it to whatever you want.

There will be Win Probability and Fielding career leaderboards eventually, but it’s going to take a bit more work.

Today, we start looking at some teams that have legitimate hope, so it gets harder from here on out. And, for those of you who haven’t seen the previous parts (which are linked below), keep in mind that this is a forward looking exercise – we are evaluating clubs on their overall ability to contend for a World Series title in the future. We are not evaluating how they have performed historically. This is about the health of each organization going forward.

Rankings So Far

#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds

#23: Colorado Rockies

Ownership: C-

The Rockies ownership has faced several significant financial problems in the past, ranging from the need to post calls for cash from minority owners to cutting payroll down to small market levels. Despite a beautiful stadium and a city that has shown that it will support a winner, the Rockies operate on a fairly strict budget that restricts the team’s ability to contend. They’ve increased the salary load they’ve been willing to take over the last couple of years, but that still didn’t keep them from trading away Matt Holliday in lieu of signing him to a long term extension. The Rockies face some unique challenges in dealing with baseball at altitude, and having to get by on a low end budget doesn’t help.

Front Office: C

Dan O’Dowd is a man with a lot of ideas. Some of them are very good, while others are a bit more questionable. Overall, he’s showed an ability to identify talent, but in trying to solve the Coors Field problems, the approach has been to throw spaghetti at the wall. They tried high priced left-handed pitchers, to disastrous results. They tried strikeout pitchers who would limit balls in play. Now, they’re trying groundball pitchers, assembling a staff of sinkerball starters who will hopefully limit home runs. In the end, though, it doesn’t appear that the organization is committed to a direction, but instead react to whether their experiments work or fail. Baseball in Denver is certainly different than the rest of the game, but the Rockies need to figure out how to use that to their advantage, and they haven’t been able to do so as of yet.

Major League Talent: B-

It’s easy to forget that this team was in the World Series two years ago. There is talent here, and a healthy Troy Tulowitzki will solve a lot of problems. But is there enough talent on the roster to keep up in the NL West? Todd Helton’s a good player with a horrible contract. Aaron Cook and Ubaldo Jimenez are good pitchers, but probably not as good as they looked last year. They lost Brian Fuentes and Holliday over the winter, plus Jeff Francis will miss the entire year to an injury. In short, Tulowitzki just doesn’t have enough help, and the team needs to add a few more impact players.

Minor League Talent: B-

Dexter Fowler is one of those impact players that the team needs, and he should be ready sooner than later. Having him patrol center field could be a shot in the arm similar to the one the team got from Tulowitzki in 2007. Jhoulys Chacin fits into their good groundball pitcher mold and gives the team two elite prospects. After that, it levels off to lower upside guys (Seth Smith, Christian Friedrich, Casey Weathers) or prospects far from the majors (Wilin Rosario, Hector Gomez). It’s a decent, but not great, system that should provide a couple of solid assets for the Rockies long term. They could use a few more than they have, though.

Overall C+

There’s just a lot of ifs here. If the Rockies can figure out how to get all their talented players on the field at the same time, and if Dexter Fowler has a terrific rookie year, and if Franklin Morales figures out his mechanics, and if they can replace Fuentes in the bullpen, and if Helton’s back doesn’t go out, this could be a pretty decent team. Of course, the odds of all those things happening aren’t very good, as you have to plan for what’s probable, not what’s possible. There is a good group of young, cost-controlled talent in place, but for the Rockies to win consistently, they’re going to have to figure out how to retain their best players or develop some more good ones internally. Right now, they’re kind of stuck in the middle.

The Diamondbacks’ system has been thinned out by trades despite some strong drafts in the past five seasons. Three of the pitchers mentioned on this list were drafted out of college in 2008. With the possible exception of one pitcher, there are no can’t-miss bats or arms in the system.

AAA/AA
Right-hander Cesar Valdez does not have dominating stuff, but he has put up solid numbers in the past three seasons. He split 2008 between High-A ball and Double-A. At the senior level, the Dominican allowed 63 hits in 64.1 innings with rates of 3.22 BB/9 and 8.39 K/9. It was the first time since coming stateside that Valdez had allowed a walk rate above 1.95 BB/9. He features an 86-90 mph fastball, plus change-up and curveball.

Catcher James Skelton was acquired from the Detroit Tigers in December’s Rule 5 draft. He has to make the club out of spring training and remain on the 25-man roster all season or he has to be put through waivers and then offered back to Detroit if he goes unclaimed. Given Detroit’s lack of prospects, it’s surprising that the organization left the backstop unprotected. Skelton split the 2009 season between High-A and Double-A and hit more than .300 on the season while also battling some injuries. The 23-year-old prospect has a career minor league line of .292/.415/.400, so he can hit but there are questions about his ability to remain behind the dish long term.

Outfielder Gerardo Parra is the club’s best hitting prospect, but he lacks power for the corners and possibly the range for center field, which could put a starting role in doubt. He split the 2008 season between High-A and Double-A. At the higher level, Parra hit .275/.341/.419 with 16 stolen bases (in 25 attempts) in 265 at-bats. He has a strong enough arm to play right but, as mentioned, not the power potential (six home runs in 461 at-bats in 2008).

First baseman Josh Whitesell, formerly of the Expos/Nationals system, has a chance to earn a spot on the 2009 roster as a part-time player and pinch hitter after another strong minor league season. The left-handed hitter batted .328/.425/.568 with 26 homers (His second straight 20+ homer season) in 475 Triple-A at-bats last season. He also made his MLB debut at the age of 26 and got two hits in seven at-bats (.286).

A+/A
Jarrod Parker is the system’s best prospect but some of the enthusiasm that saw him get drafted ninth overall has been tempered. He is no longer viewed as a future No. 1 stud starter, but more of a solid and reliable No. 2 or 3 starter. He allowed 113 hits in 117 A-ball innings in 2008. Parker also posted rates of 2.52 BB/9 and 8.95 K/9. The right-hander has four solid pitches, including a mid-90s fastball, curveball, slider and change-up. At the age of 20, Parker will likely begin the year in High-A ball but could taste Double-A by the end of the year.

Daniel Schlereth is viewed as the club’s closer of the future. He was drafted in the back of the first round in 2008 and appeared in 10 regular-season, minor league games. In 12 innings, he allowed six hits and struck out 20 batters. As a southpaw, he has a mid-90s fastball and a plus curveball. Having survived Tommy John surgery already, there are some concerns about Schlereth’s ability to stay healthy.

Mark Hallberg is a middle infielder who knows how to hit. His advanced approach has helped him reach High-A ball in just his first full season after being drafted in the ninth round out of college in 2007. He hit .283/.357/.368 in 272 High-A at-bats last season, while also missing time with an injury. He dominated the Arizona Fall League and hit .362 in 116 at-bats. Hallberg controls the strike zone well, but he lacks power and speed, which will likely push him to a part-time role in the Majors. He should begin 2009 in Double-A and could reach the Majors by September.

SS/R
Trevor Harden was a nice find in the 14th round of the 2008 draft out of a New Mexico junior college. He features an 89-93 mph fastball, slider and change-up. Harden had a solid debut in rookie ball by posting a 1.91 ERA (1.78 FIP) with 34 hits allowed in 42.1 innings against younger competition. He posted rates of 2.34 BB/9 and 13.61 K/9. Harden will be an interesting player to watch in 2009 as he enters full-season ball.

Wade Miley and Kevin Eichhorn were also both selected in the 2008 draft. Miley is a hard-throwing left-hander who can touch 95 mph, and also features a plus slider, curveball and change-up. If he can improve his command/control, Miley, 22, could stick as a starter. Eichhorn, 19, follows his dad’s footsteps into pro ball and was given an above-slot deal to sway him away from college. He appeared in just two games after signing but impressed the club with his work in the fall. Eichhorn features an 87-91 mph fastball, curveball and change-up.

Reynaldo Navarro was one of the Top 3 Puerto Ricans selected in the 2007 draft, but he was also the youngest and will play the entire 2009 season (his third) at the age of 19. He hit .258/.323/.385 at rookie ball in 2008 with rates of 7.9 BB% and 26.5 K%. He also stole 17 bases in 26 attempts and has good athleticism. Navarro, like most young players, has struggled with errors at shortstop.

Up Next: The Oakland Athletics

Today, we move out of the bottom five, and start looking at some teams that have legitimate hope, so it gets harder from here on out. And, for those of you who haven’t seen the previous parts (which are linked below), keep in mind that this is a forward looking exercise – we are evaluating clubs on their overall ability to contend for a World Series title in the future. We are not evaluating how they have performed historically. This is about the health of each organization going forward.

Rankings So Far

#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres

#24: Cincinnati Reds

Ownership:: B-

The Reds have transferred hands more often than most baseball franchises, but under Bob Castellini, they finally have some stability. They’ve increased their payroll since moving into the new park and have a budget that would support a contending team. They’ve attempted to re-establish a connection with the fanbase, going so far as having Castellini publish an open letter to the fan base apologizing for last year’s team and promising better results in the future. That said, there been some snags along the way. Castellini mishandled the GM situation by hiring own friend Walt Jocketty to serve as an adviser while keeping former GM Wayne Krivsky theoretically in charge. It became pretty obvious, however, that his days were numbered, and he was fired a few weeks into the ’08 season. Not really the best way of handling that transition.

Front Office: C

This is going to seem like a harsh grade for someone with as good of a reputation as Jocketty, but while he’s certainly got some strengths as a talent evaluator, he brings a bit of baggage as well. When the Cardinals attempted to join the 21st century of analytics, he wasn’t very receptive to the ideas of Jeff Luhnow and helped create a divide in the St. Louis front office that eventually led to him leaving. He’s fairly set in his ways, and while the Reds could use some advancement in their analytical techniques, they aren’t likely to come while Jocketty is in charge. He’ll do a pretty good job of putting together a roster, but he’s not going to create sustainable long term advantages that can make up for their mid-market payroll size.

Major League Roster: B-

The core of a really good team is in place. Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto – that’s a very good group of players to build around for the future. And there’s some ancillary talents that could still make an impact as well – guys like Homer Bailey, Edwin Encarnacion (if they’d just move him to LF already), and Jeff Keppinger could make positive contributions above what their track record shows. The question, though, is what direction do they want to go in? On their face, this team isn’t good enough to contend in 2009, but they’ve got significant assets tied to Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Francisco Cordero, who are just better fits for a contender than a rebuilder. But if they trade those guys, then there isn’t enough good talent around the young core to avoid a lot of losses. It’s something of a dilemma that Jocketty and company will have to figure out.

Minor League Talent: C

Yonder Alonso is a terrific young player, but he also presents a problem for an organization that already has Joey Votto and lacks the option of a DH. You’d like your best prospect to not be blocked by one of your best young players, ideally. Beyond him, Todd Frazier can hit but no one is sure where he should play (I vote for third base, personally), and while Drew Stubbs has done a great job of making better contact, there are still questions about just how much he’s going to hit in the majors. There’s virtually no upper level pitching in the system, either, which makes it tough to replace Harang and Arroyo if they do decide that dealing them is the way to go.

Overall: C+

There’s actually a pretty big gap here between the Reds and Padres, so don’t look at their placements next to each other on the list and think that I’m saying that they’re in comparable shape. Trying to sort out the next ten franchises was tough, and the Reds are closer to being in the top 15 than they are to being 30th, even though they land at #24. With a good ownership group, a good young core of talent, a new ballpark, and a GM who is fairly adept at building a major league roster, there are things going right in Cincinnati. Can they consistently contend in the NL Central going forward without upgrading their analytical departments and having a mid-level payroll? I’m not sure, and that’s why the end up here.

While discussing Milton Bradley’s comments that, because no team seemed willing to give him more than a one-year deal, he did whatever possible to preserve statistics for salary maximization purposes, I could not help but think about Reggie Sanders. Not because Sanders in any way ever acted similarly to Bradley but rather that he always seemed to be signing one-year deals with new teams. After eight seasons with the Reds (1991-98), Sanders went onto sign single season contracts in each of the next five seasons. Add in his final year with the Reds and first season on a 2-yr deal with the Cardinals and, from 1998-2004, Sanders played fro seven different teams in seven seasons.

In actuality, Sanders shares more of a bond with Bradley than meets the eye. Both produced at a high level despite missing a plethora of time due to injuries. The biggest difference between the two deals with attitude, in that Bradley is perceived to have a bad one, while nobody really knows anything about Sanders. The fact of the matter is that, regardless of how productive of a career he may have had, Reggie Sanders was a very boring player. Because he lacked commercial appeal and actually spoke humbly with the media, Sanders never became a well-known star and has realistically already been forgotten by hordes of fans.

Which is a shame given that his career really was remarkably better than most remember. Over 16 seasons, Sanders hit .267/.343/.487, with a .359 wOBA, 305 HR and 304 SB. Yes, Reggie Sanders is one of only six members of the 300-300 club, whose other members include Barry Bonds, Bobby Bonds, Willie Mays, Andre Dawson, and Steve Finley. On top of that, since 1901, only five players have hit 275+ HR, stolen 275+ bases, recorded an OBP > .335 and an SLG > .475: Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Willie Mays, Eric Davis, and Reggie Sanders.

So, what’s the point of all this? Well, it’s a tad annoying that fans and media members generally want players to be as humble as possible, yet someone with a career as solid as Sanders is instantly forgotten because he wasn’t a cocky or loudmouthed malcontent. Ten years from now, Milton Bradley is going to be remembered… Reggie Sanders is already forgotten by many as I type these words. With that in mind, I am hereby starting the Reggie Sanders Club of Boring Stars, whose members will include players that put up very solid numbers similar to those of Sanders, no shot at the Hall of Fame, and who were boring, or at the very least, not famous for their attitudes or statistics.

Colleague Matthew Carruth pointed out that any sort of query to find such members would need to feature something like OPS+ in order to acknowledge the difference in eras. Sanders had a career OPS+ of 115, so I looked for players with at least 200 HR, 100 SB, and an OPS+ between 105 and 135, and then eliminated anyone who did not fit the aforementioned criteria, IE, non-boring, potential HOFers. The list quickly dwindled to five potential candidates, all of whom I am comfortable with inducting: Ellis Burks, Luis Gonzalez, Shawn Green, Mike Cameron, and Ray Lankford.

If anyone has other suggestions, please let me know, as my ultimate goal here is to recognize the players that actually embody what fans and the media seem to love so much.

Today, we round out the bottom five in our organizational rankings series. And, for those of you who haven’t seen the first four parts (which are linked below), keep in mind that this is a forward looking exercise – we are evaluating clubs on their overall ability to contend for a World Series title in the future. We are not evaluating how they have performed historically. This is about the health of each organization going forward.

Rankings So Far

#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates

#25: San Diego Padres

Ownership: N/A

Thanks to a messy divorce, long time owner John Moores was forced to sell the team this winter to a group of investors led by Jeff Moorad, and the sale is expected to be finalized in the next few weeks. The Padres will almost certainly be run differently, but exactly how it looks, no one really knows. Moorad has already said that he’s going to be replacing Sandy Alderson as CEO, and Alderson will be leaving the organization. This is an ownership group in transition, and we just don’t have enough information to give them any kind of grade. I will, note, however, that it’s at least got the appearance of shadiness that Moorad was allowed to enter an agreement to buy the Padres while employed by the Diamondbacks. Even if there wasn’t a conflict of interest, it sure looks like there was. Seems to me that could have been handled better.

Front Office: B-

Kevin Towers is a smart, likable guy, and currently the longest tenured GM in the game. He’s done a pretty good job building the Padres into a solid team without significant capital, and overall, you’d have to describe his tenure as a success. However, there’s some serious question marks about how the team will be run going forward. With Alderson on the way out, does he take Asst. GM Paul DePodesta with him? Can Towers avoid being fired if the team struggles in 2009, especially with new ownership? This is not a baseball operations department built on pillars of stone.

Major League Talent: C-

PETCO Park skews a lot of the perceptions about the talent on the Padres roster – the pitchers aren’t as good as advertised, and the hitters are a bit better than everyone thinks. But even with the park adjustments, the Padres scored 637 runs last year while getting a career year from Jody Gerut and an excellent age-37 season from Brian Giles. Regression needs to be expected from both, and there just isn’t much in the way of run production for the Padres outside of those two and Adrian Gonzalez. Chase Headley is a solid enough young player, but when he represents the hopes of your future line-up, things aren’t great. The club really should have sold high on Jake Peavy this winter, as now they have to hope he stays healthy, pitches well, and they can get comparable offers at the deadline. Even in a mediocre NL West, it’s hard to see this team contending for a playoff spot, and it’s not a roster that’s going to get better.

Minor League Talent: C-

This is a system with a bunch of polarizing prospects. Some people see Matt Antonelli as a potential all-star second baseman, while others think he’s more of an average-at-everything kind of guy. Some people are in love with Kyle Blanks‘ power, while others wonder where an NL team is going to play him. There aren’t any position prospects here that everyone loves, and the ranks of the pitching prospects are full of guys who throw 87 MPH and try to get by on smarts. It isn’t a horrible farm system, but it’s not a very good one either, and for a team in need of a talent injection, that’s a problem.

Overall: C

The Padres are a tough team to judge because of the transition period they find themselves in. Without knowing what kind of owner Moorad will be, how the front office will shake out under his leadership, and whether they’re going to try to rebuild or take a last shot at winning with the Peavy-Giles combination makes this perhaps the most uncertain franchise in baseball. If you’re a glass half full guy, you can hold onto the fact that the D’Backs were very well ran while Moorad was in Arizona, and that the front office is full of guys who could run a team well. If you’re a glass half empty guy, then you see an organization that lacks talent, has only a couple of really valuable players (two of whom have full no-trade clauses), and who plays in a division with two teams that are better, younger, and have greater revenue steams. I have a feeling that San Diego is in for some tough times ahead.

Once the owners of an impressive group of prospects, the Los Angeles Angles’ minor league system has slipped into disarray. The club still has some interesting prospects, but most of them are in A-ball or short-season leagues. In recent seasons, offensive prospects have been overrated in part due to some minor league teams that play in very good hitter’s parks and leagues.

AAA/AA
Right-hander Nick Adenhart was rushed to the Majors in 2008 (and possibly even to Triple-A) and it showed. Adenhart allowed 18 hits and 13 walks in just 12 innings (three starts). Opponents offered at his pitches outside the strike zone (there were a lot of them) just 14.1% of the time and he pumped in first-pitch strikes less than 50% of the time (42.9% to be exact). His numbers are Triple-A were not inspiring, either. Adenhart allowed 173 hits in 145.1 innings with a walk rate of 4.64 BB/9. His strikeout rate has also dropped significantly since 2006 when it sat at 8.41 K/9 in A-ball. His rate in 2008 was 6.81 K/9. The good news is that Adenhart is still young at 22; he just needs the time to become a better pitcher.

First baseman Mark Trumbo had a breakout 2008 season in terms of power after slugging 32 home runs between High-A ball and Double-A. The 23-year-old prospect spent the majority of the season in High-A and hit .283/.329/.553 with 26 homers in 407 at-bats. While that homer total is impressive (along with the ISO increase from .155 in 2007 to .270 in 2008), cautioned must be used because Trumbo was playing in a hitter’s park in a hitter’s league (the same park and league that inflated Brandon Wood’s numbers in 2005 to the tune 43 homers). Trumbo’s career average of .262 also suggests that he won’t hit for much of an average at the Major League level. The .316 career OBP and 2008 walk rate of 6.0 BB% does not instill a lot of hope either. For his sake, that power surge had best be for real.

A+/A
Jordan Walden, 21, had an impressive season in A-ball in 2008. He posted a 2.18 ERA (2.85 FIP) and allowed 80 hits in 107.1 innings of work. He also allowed just three home runs and posted solid rates of 2.68 BB/9 and 7.63 K/9. Walden earned a nine-start promotion to High-A ball and he survived the hitter’s environment by allowing jut 42 hits in 49 innings. The right-handed pitcher did, though, allow four home runs and his walk rate jumped to 4.41 BB/9. Impressively, his strikeout rate improved to 9.18 K/9. Walden may return to High-A in 2009, or the Angels may choose to be aggressive with him and have him begin the year in Double-A. He features a mid-90s fastball that can touch the upper 90s, as well as a slider and seldom-used change-up.

Sean O’Sullivan’s stock has dropped in recent seasons due mainly to a decrease in fastball velocity. He now works in the 87-92 mph range. That velocity is more than enough to survive as a starter in the Majors, but a pitcher needs reliable secondary pitches, and O’Sullivan has yet to develop those. Pitching in a very good hitter’s park in 2008, the right-hander allowed 167 hits in 158 innings of work. He posted rates of 2.85 BB/9 and 6.32 K/9. O’Sullivan has solid control and understands how to pitch with average stuff so he has the chance to be a No. 4 or 5 starter or middle reliever at the Major League level.

Trevor Reckling had a solid first full season in pro ball in 2008. The southpaw allowed 137 hits in 152.1 A-ball innings and posted rates of 3.49 BB/9 and 7.56 K/9. His fastball is average for a lefty at 87-91 mph and his two secondary pitches both have the chance to be reliable, plus pitches: a curveball and change-up. Reckling will likely begin 2009 in High-A ball, which will be a big test.

It might seem a little surprising that you don’t hear more about Hank Conger. The (just turned) 21-year-old catcher is a former No. 1 draft pick, who was selected out of high school in the 2006 draft. He has a career line of .296/.337/.491, which is excellent for a backstop. But Conger has never played more than 84 games in a season after struggling with injuries in each of the past two seasons, and there is significant doubt that he will be able to remain behind the dish. He does have above-average arm strength so there is hope – but the Double-A test in 2009 will be huge.

Like most of the offensive prospects on this list, Peter Bourjos’ breakout season came in High-A ball, where he hit .295/.326/.444 in 509 at-bats. The speedy outfielder also slugged 10 triples and stole 50 bases in 60 attempts. Unfortunately, he has yet to grasp the appropriate approach at the plate to take advantage of his speed, having posted a walk rate in 2008 of just 3.6 BB%, which was down from 7.8 BB% in 2007. The soon-to-be 22-year-old prospect is an excellent defensive center fielder but he is headed for a MLB career as a fourth outfielder if he maintains the same approach at the plate.

SS/R
The organization has a trio of impressive arms in short-season ball: Manuarys Correa, Tyler Chatwood, and Will Smith. Correa, a Dominican right-hander, had an impressive North American debut in 2008 and features a fastball that can touch the mid-90s, as well as a slider and change-up. He just turned 20 and should open 2009 in A-ball. Chatwood was the club’s second-round pick out of a California high school last season. He allowed just 25 hits in 38 innings during his debut. He needs to develop a changeup to go with his mid-90s fastball and slider. Smith showed exceptional control in rookie ball in 2008 and walked just six batters in 73 innings (0.74 BB/9). The 19-year-old southpaw was a seventh round pick last season out of a Florida community college. His fastball can touch 91-92 mph and he also has a curveball and change-up.

Luis Jiminez, 21, led his short-season league in doubles and homers in 2008, but it was a solid hitter’s league so some scouts question just how much power he actually has. Regardless, the Dominican third baseman deserves some attention, especially considering he also hit .335. His defense needs work, but Jiminez should be able to remain at the position, although he has a long way to go.

Up Next: The Arizona Diamondbacks

Today, we round out the bottom five in our organizational rankings series. And, for those of you who haven’t seen the first four parts (which are linked below), keep in mind that this is a forward looking exercise – we are evaluating clubs on their overall ability to contend for a World Series title in the future. We are not evaluating how they have performed historically. This is about the health of each organization going forward.

Rankings So Far

#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals

#26: Pittsburgh Pirates

Ownership: B-

Under the old Kevin McClatchy regime, the Pirates were about as poorly run as any team in baseball. However, with Robert Nutting taking over the franchise in 2007 and bringing Frank Coonelly in to serve as the team president, the team has made significant strides in investing in the franchise with an eye towards winning. Their stadium is one of the nicest in the game, and with a winning product, should support a mid-level payroll. It will take a while to undo the disaster that was the McClatchy era, but the new ownership group is on the right path.

Front Office: B-

Among a Cleveland front office brimming with talent, Neil Huntington was often the forgotten man, living in the shadow of Chris Antonetti. However, since being hired as the Pirates GM, he’s shown that he’s brought a lot of valuable experience with him from the Indians model, and has worked extensively to upgrade the Pirates decision making processes. From hiring analysts like Dan Fox to modernizing the databases they have to compile information, Pittsburgh made a 180 degree turn from where they were under previous administrations. The Pirates were in rough shape when he took over, so a quick reload was out of the question, but Huntington has the Pirates headed in the right direction.

Major League Talent: D

When the Pirates decided that they didn’t want to invest in a long term deal for Jason Bay, they traded the only player on the roster who could be described as a star. The rest of the talent is a mixture of average-ish role players who will keep the team from being awful but won’t push it towards contention. Players like Adam LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez, Nate McLouth, Paul Maholm, and Ryan Doumit are valuable enough players, but not the kind of championship core that you can build a winner around. There’s just limited upside with practically everyone on the roster, and while Huntington has done a good job picking up cheap stopgaps to hold down the fort until they develop some long term solutions, a roster full of +1 to +2 win players isn’t a foundation for long term success.

Minor League Talent: C

In contrast to the major league roster, there’s quite a bit of upside on the farm. Pedro Alvarez is one of the game’s best young hitters and worth every penny the Pirates paid him. Andrew McCutchen combines solid-enough offense with good defense in center field, and Jose Tabata intrigues with his offensive potential at such a young age. However, with higher reward often comes higher risk, and all these guys have some questions to answer – will Alvarez stay in good enough shape to be a reasonable defensive player? Can McCutchen hit for enough power to put some fear into opposing pitchers? Can Tabata put together a performance worthy of his tools for a full season? The star potential is certainly welcome, but the system is a bit thin on sure things (other than Alvarez’s bat) and is a bit lacking in depth.

Overall: C-

For Pirates fans, there is finally a light at the end of the tunnel. The problem, though, is that the tunnel is a few miles long thanks to the brutal work done by the previous front office. While the new ownership and organizational philosophies should eventually lead to the Pirates returning to respectability, they just don’t have a lot on hand to work with. Patience is going to be required of Pirates fans, because a real contender isn’t in the cards for the next few years. But, with a strong blueprint in place, once they get good, they could stay good for quite a while.