Normally, I like to start my posts off with some history of either the player being evaluated or the study being conducted. Tonight, I’m going to break from that mold given that every baseball fan knows that Barry Zito signed an albatross of a contract with the Giants following the 2006 season and has in no way lived up to the win values meriting such a contract. He also does not add to the team from an extra-curricular standpoint the way Manny Ramirez adds butts in the seats and sells merchandise.

Early in the 2009 season, however, Zito has actually looked pretty darn good and one has to wonder if he is going to revert to some semblance of his past form. Sure, he has only appeared in five games, but let’s keep the small sample size comments to a minimum here… after all, do you really think those of us at this site, who harp on the positives and negatives of samples all the time honestly don’t know that we are dealing with small samplels? Short rant over, back to the action.

There have been a few studies conducted linking Zito’s success in Oakland not only with the quality defenses backing him up but also an ability to consistently induce popups. While a popup might seem more random than skill-based, Zito consistently finished amongst the league leaders in this area, ultimately suggesting that some facet of his performance, be it velocity, movement, location, or some combination of the three, allowed him to record a higher than usual percentage of these weakly hit high pops.

During his first two seasons in San Francisco, Zito not only saw his velocity completely drop off the map, but his percentage of popups practically halved. From 2002-06, he ranged from around 15-17%. In 2007 and 2008, he induced popups under nine percent of the time. That could be chalked up as a direct result of the velocity issues or perhaps lesser foul area in San Francisco in which popups could remain in play.

This season, however, Zito’s rate of popups currently sits at 18.8%, higher than any previous season. He is not very likely to sustain a popup rate that but given that Zito has proven himself capable of above average marks in this department, he could very well stick around the 14-17% for the season. Not surprisingly, his velocity is also up to a tad below 87 mph, which only seems significant based on his gradual dropoff into Moyer-territory over the last two seasons.

Zito is not an ace and he probably will never pitch anywhere near as well as he did during the early days in Oakland, but if he can build on this early 2009 success and continue to get popups, all the while sustaining the improved velocity, there is no reason he could not be one of the best fourth starters in baseball. An improved Zito would certainly look much better than most of the other back end of the rotation pitchers consistently garnering opportunities. If the popup rate regresses towards the levels of the last two seasons, though, do not expect this success to continue.

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ve heard that Zack Greinke is currently carving up the American League. Through six starts, he has a 0.40 ERA, as he’s given up a whopping three runs, one of which was unearned. He’s thrown three complete games in his last four starts. He has yet to give up a home run. Not surprisingly, he’s 6-0, as it’s fairly easy to win when you’re giving up fractions of a run per nine innings.

Unless your name is Jose Rijo. I went looking for comparable stretches of high quality pitching, just to see how often we get treated to one of the runs like Greinke is on right now. A bunch of different stretches stuck out – Bob Gibson went 11 straight starts with 1 ER or less in 1968, just destroying opposing hitters and posting a 0.27 ERA over 99 innings. Pedro Martinez had a stretch of 10 starts at the end of 1999 and the beginning of 2000 where he walked 12 and struck out 128 batters in 76 1/3 innings. Just some ridiculous numbers.

Nothing stuck out more than Rijo’s stretch at the end of 1988 and the beginning of 1989, however. 10 starts, all with two runs allowed or less. His ERA over that stretch was 0.68. He didn’t allow a single home run. He went 3-0.

He won three games in a stretch of 10 starts where he allowed a grand total of six runs. It’s not like the Reds teams of those years were lousy – Cincinnati won the World Series in ’89 was a year away from a championship, after all. However, Rijo didn’t work very deep into those games, as he was never the worlds most efficient starter, and in several of them he didn’t pitch the required five innings to earn the win. In a few others, the team wouldn’t take the lead for good until after he had left, so he wasn’t rewarded with a win.

Still, it’s tough to imagine that a guy could pitch that well and get shafted that often. Just more evidence, if you needed any, that a pitcher’s win-loss record is pretty meaningless.

2008 Draft Slot: 21st overall
Top Pick: Ryan Perry, RHP, University of Arizona
Best Pick: Ryan Perry
Keep an Eye On: Alex Avila, C, University of Alabama (Fifth round)
Notes: The Tigers organization did not select many high-ceiling players, if any. What it did do was grab a whole whack of hard-throwing college relievers, many of whom could make it to the Majors quickly… and the Tigers desperately needed depth. Ryan Perry is already pitching in the Majors, although he should probably be in Double-A right now working on his fastball command and control.

2007 Draft Slot: 27th overall
Top Pick: Rick Porcello, RHP, New Jersey high school
Best Pick: Rick Porcello
Worst Pick: Cale Iorg, SS, University of Alabama (Sixth round)
Notes: Keep an eye on LHP Casey Crosby, who was drafted out of an Illinois high school in the fifth round. He’s back pitching well after missing most of 2008 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Infielder Cale Iorg has a famous family name but he does not make enough contact. He’ll be lucky to carve out a career as a MLB utility player. Only two years after being drafted out of high school, Rick Porcello is already pitching in the Majors, but he should be in Double-A. The organization is trying to Bonderman him. Porcello, though, should not have been available with the 27th pick but clubs were scared off his signability.

2006 Draft Slot: Sixth overall
Top Pick: Andrew Miller, LHP, University of North Carolina
Best Pick: Andrew Miller
Worst Pick: Ronnie Bourquin, 3B, Ohio State University (2nd round), or Brennan Boesch, OF, University of California (third round)
Notes: Andrew Miller has not been nearly as advanced as expected but he was sent to Florida in the Miguel Cabrera deal. Miller is still trying to prove himself to be a No. 5 starter thanks to a lack of command/control. 1B Ryan Strieby and 2B Scott Sizemore were nice finds in the fourth and fifth rounds.

2009 Draft Slot: Ninth overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): Best talent, but a fast mover
MLB Club Need: Shortstop, Left field, Starting Pitching
Organizational Need: Depth everywhere
Organizational Strength: Relief pitching
Notes: The club needs to find some high-ceiling talent. The club has not done an overly good job of finding talent in the later rounds of the draft. The 2008 draft tossed some good arms into the mid-to-upper minors, but the ceilings seem to stop around set-up man with most settling in at middle reliever.

I’ve added a few more PitchFx charts to the player pages that were highly requested. There is a new section called “Game Charts” where you can select any game for a particular pitcher and have four different velocity/release point/movement charts displayed for that game.

Check out Greinke’s last start here: 5/4/2009 Start

You can also click on any of the graphs and it will show you a bigger version.

Scott Kazmir is broken, and it’s starting to get to the point where we have to wonder if he’s fixable. First, some graphs.

At the top, we see Kazmir’s walk and strikeout rate trends over the years. They’re not good. From 2004 to 2007, Kazmir was among the elite strikeout guys in baseball, averaging 10+ K/9 in three of the four seasons. He always has struggled with his command, but the overpowering stuff made up for it.

Last year, he famously “lost his slider”, as you can see in the third image. He cut his slider usage in half and saw his GB% sink accordingly, becoming an extreme flyball pitcher. His strikeout rate dropped some, but not drastically, and while he had definitely taken a step back, there was hope that he would rebound after rediscovering his slider this spring.

That hasn’t happened. The fourth image is a velocity histogram of Kazmir’s start last night. His fastest pitch of the night was 90.7 MPH. His fastball averaged 89.05 MPH, confirming the data in the third chart – his velocity is off by a couple MPH this year on all pitches, not just his fastball. He’s throwing a bunch of sliders again, but they’re of the 80 MPH variety, not the 84 MPH power slider that he used to throw.

Those missing MPH are having a pretty big impact. Batters are making contact with 84% of the pitches Kazmir throws this year, way up from his 75% career average. In turn, his strikeouts are down, but he hasn’t been able to offset the loss of dominance with a corresponding improvement in his walk rate. His 4.91 BB/9 is the highest he’s posted since his rookie season.

Not surprisingly, this version of broken Kazmir isn’t very good. His FIP is 4.78 and last night’s beating pushed his ERA to 6.00. The Rays have David Price waiting in Triple-A, and with Kazmir looking like he needs a stint on the disabled list and an MRI, they might not be able to keep him down on the farm much longer. This Rays team needs a boost, and until they figure out what’s wrong with Kazmir, it doesn’t look like they’ll be getting it from his spot in the rotation.

Taking what players say and analyzing the content literally is a dangerous game. Most of the time player quotes are nothing but an assemblage of clichés, prep talk, and prepackaged acknowledgments, leaving some style and little substance. Of course, I can’t really blame the players for taking this route, it’s not like they stand to gain much by being outspoken. With that being said, Johnny Damon may want to revise history following his recent quotes regarding Jason Varitek:

“I couldn’t believe that they were letting him walk and try to find a team. That’s the difference between New York and Boston…If you’re a part of New York, they’re going to keep you there: Posada, Jeter, Mariano, it’s the first time in history guys have been on the same team for 15 years. It goes to show you something about how the Yankees think, and how many Yankees players have been exclusive with one team. They keep them forever. (The Red Sox) were ready to let (Varitek) go. He’s their starting catcher. That’s how the two teams work. You know his days are going to be numbered here. But hopefully not — he deserves to be here until his career is over.”

I’m sure the two are friends, and obviously Damon isn’t going to bash his current team, one he might get a contract extension from. The Yankees do have some long, long time players on their roster, but they’re hardly the most loyal team around. Remember when the Yankees had an oral agreement with Albert Belle? You know, to replace Bernie Williams who had been in the Yankees organization for about 13 seasons at the time. In July of 1999 they tried trading Andy Pettitte (in the organization since 1991) for Adam Eaton, Reggie Taylor, and Anthony Shumaker. Countless threats were made towards Joe Torre’s job despite constant success. The Yankees had no qualms placing aside Tino Martinez after seven productive seasons in favor of Jason Giambi – not that it was a poor move, the Yankees certainly upgraded, but by Damon’s logic, in a rather heartless fashion.

Loyalty to players is a great idea in theory. Especially in cases like Varitek (and even Damon) where the fanbase loves them and scoops up their gear without much of a second thought, but when you’re Theo Epstein and have to win one of the toughest divisions in baseball history, you need to look wherever you can for an upgrade. That’s why it wasn’t disrespectful to Mike Lowell or Kevin Youkilis when the Red Sox sniffed around Mark Teixeira or to Tim Wakefield when the Red Sox signed John Smoltz and Brad Penny.

What the Red Sox did with Varitek wasn’t cruel or disrespectful. They were looking to upgrade their roster by getting rid of a weak link. Plus, if anyone should appreciate such an approach, it should be Damon. Unless he’s forgotten how Boston’s bucking of tradition and decaying loyalty to Nomar Garciaparra played a role in the team’s 2004 World Series title and placed Damon on another plateau of popularity.

The offseason for the Atlanta Braves was highlighted by the 4-yr deal given to Derek Lowe and shadowed with controversy surrounding deals with Rafael Furcal and Ken Griffey Jr that never came to fruition. Hidden amongst the headlines, their second best move involved trading for Javier Vazquez of the Chicago White Sox.

Vazquez has been written about here on several occasions, primarily due to the fact that he has been the most frustrating pitcher in recent memory. He routinely posts incredible peripherals and marks of controllable skills yet often sees his ERA soar much higher than his FIP. A return to the more pitcher-friendly senior circuit, in theory, could be the cure for such frustration.

Entering Monday’s game against the Mets, Vazquez had toed the rubber on five different occasions, pitching 32 very effective innings. In his time on the mound, Vazquez had issued just eight free passes, fanned 42 hitters, and kept his ERA down to a very solid 3.38. Having allowed just one home run, coupled with the K/BB north of 5.0, Javy’s FIP stood at an incredible 1.70.

He is usually right around a 40% flyball rate/38% groundball rate but had surrendered a pretty penny of line drives right around the corner of 30%. Those line drives will be displaced by flyballs, some of which are going to leave the yard, normalizing both the LD- and HR/FB-rates in the process. Two of those balls left the yard last night against the Mets as Vazquez performed in his typical frustrating fashion.

Javy threw first pitch strikes to 18 of the first 21 hitters he faced and looked dominant. Speeds were mixed, pinpoint control decided to attend his arsenal, and command did not elude the righty. In the sixth inning, Javy sported a 3-0 lead. As dominant as he had looked, I figured this was a sure thing. A quick check of my e-mail and channel flip with the remote later, the Mets had taken a 4-3 lead on the heels of two-run homers from Carlos Beltran and David Wright.

Last night’s game sums up Vazquez’s career perfectly: he looks dominant 85% of the time, leading many to scratch, no, claw their heads as to why he is not a perennial award contender, and allows enough damage in that remaining 15% to inflate his overall numbers.

2008 Draft Slot: 29th overall
Top Pick: Lonnie Chisenhall, IF, North Carolina community college
Best Pick: Chisenhall
Keep an Eye On: Trey Haley, RHP, Texas high school (2nd round)
Notes: The Tribe did a nice job scouting Lonnie Chisenhall, for whom some clubs had serious makeup concerns. By all reports, though, he’s been a model citizen for the Indians organization and has hit better than expected early on in his pro career. The club went over-slot with a number of players (Bryce Stowell, T.J. House) and could end up with one of the better drafts when we look back in five years at the 2008 selections.

2007 Draft Slot: 13th overall
Top Pick: Beau Mills, 1B, Lewis-Clark State college
Best Pick: Mills, from a weak pool of picks
Worst Pick: T.J. McFarland, LHP, Illinois high school
Notes: The club drafted slugger in 1B Beau Mills and then did not pick again until the fourth round, which certainly hurt in terms of depth. No one else has really stepped up their game since then. Prep pick T.J. McFarland has a history of elbow problems and he hasn’t looked very good since signing.

2006 Draft Slot: 39th overall (supplemental first round)
Top Pick: David Huff, LHP, UCLA
Best Pick: Wes Hodges, 3B, Georgia Tech (second round – 69th overall)
Worst Pick: Steven Wright, RHP, University of Hawaii (second round – 56th overall)
Notes: Perhaps worried that the club lacked a first-round pick, the organization went with an “advanced” college arm that had a lower overall ceiling but would move quickly. Clubs are now realizing that category of draft pick is pretty much a myth. It’s now 2009 and David Huff hasn’t pitched in the Majors yet. His ceiling is that of a third or fourth starter. Steven Wright is looking like a future middle reliever in the Majors, but the club made up for that second-round pick with another in the same round: third baseman Wes Hodges. The right-handed hitter won’t be a star but he should at least be a league-average third baseman.

2009 Draft Slot: 15th overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): Definitely college players
MLB Club Need: Pitching, Pitching, more Pitching, and Third base
Organizational Need: Center field, Right field, LHP Pitching, RHP Pitching
Organizational Strength: 1B/LF, Third base
Notes: The club has not really made a splash with its first overall pick in quite some time… although Chisenhall could change that. The club is picking in the middle of the first round, so a lot is up in the air… but you have to figure the club is leaning to a college pitcher, unless a good (college) bat finds its way to them.

Another week, another series of lessons. On to the learning.

Carl Crawford is fast.

Other than Crawford, two players have stolen at least 11 bases this year. Bobby Abreu has exactly 11, while Jacoby Ellsbury has 13. Crawford stole 11 bases last week. Stealing six yesterday helped, obviously, but even without the record-tying display of running, Crawford was stealing bags at a ridiculous rate. He now has 17 steals on the season, and he hasn’t been thrown out once. He’s setting a pace for 86 stolen bases per 600 PA, and given how well he’s running right now, it’d be a surprise if he didn’t beat his own personal best of 59 stolen bases. With a career 84% success rate, Crawford isn’t just prolific, but he’s establishing himself as one of the premier baserunners of this generation.

Justin Morneau will not wait for you to throw him a strike.

Morneau is a very good hitter in the midst of another very good year. He’s the classic left-handed power hitter, driving in runs in bunches in the middle of the order. He’s the kind of hitter that pitchers don’t want to make a mistake to, and are usually willing to put on first base with a base on balls. Only, Morneau won’t let them. He’s drawn just seven walks this year, and it’s not because pitchers are challenging him – he swung at a staggering 51.2% of pitches outside the strike zone last week, the highest mark in the league. His O-Swing% for the season stands at 37.8%, meaning that he’s swinging at nearly two of every five balls that a pitcher throws. I’m not one to critique the work of a guy with a .404 wOBA, but patience is a virtue, Justin.

Power pitchers were tough to hit.

The five lowest FIPs for last week among starting pitchers belonged to Randy Johnson (0.60), Yovanni Gallardo (0.79), Matt Garza (0.95), Justin Verlander (1.17), and Felix Hernandez (1.29). I love watching guys with impeccable command carve up hitters with deception as much as the next guy, but there’s something to be said for being able to throw really freaking hard. These guys are among the best stuff guys in baseball, and they rack up the strikeouts by having more chutzpah than the opponents. A good old fashion just-try-to-hit-it-i-dare-you fastball can be fun to watch, and those guys were on full display last week.

The Pirates offense could use some more punch.

Last week, Pittsburgh’s offense had a 35,000-way tie for first place in home runs, as everyone who attended a Pirates game had as many home runs as the team they were watching. Andy LaRoche hit two doubles, but he was the only guy on the team with multiple extra base hits. Pointing to a guy who hit .211/.348/.316 as your big thumper over the last seven days doesn’t exactly sound like a way to win games, though. Not surprisingly, the Pirates had a team ISO of .047 and they scored a whopping 18 runs. Their run prevention has been a nice story so far, but with that kind of offensive levels, they’ll be a footnote in the N.L. Central again before too long.

The Mariners’ new centerfielder was the heavy favorite for the UZR king crown just a few weeks ago, and now the Mariners’ old centerfielder is paving the way for himself. Mike Cameron shot up the charts with a strong showing this week backed mostly on – or rather beside – his right-arm, which accounts for 2.4 of the 6.2 runs. Cameron’s range has been nice as well to the tone of 3.6 runs.

In second place is another former Mariner, Raul Ibanez. Uh, yeah I’m surprised too. A lot of people are going to point to this and say, “See, see! Raul is good!” which is funny, because these are the same people who probably said defensive metrics were lousy just a few months ago. A small sample size tag is implied on these posts, and Ibanez has a nice big sticker next to his. It’s hard to ignore Ibanez UZR track record over the last few years; -12.1, -20.5, and -5.8. You can’t just dump that data in favor of 200 innings worth. Let’s see how Raul continues to do, but it would be quite the outlier and oddity if Ibanez is suddenly rated as a positive defender come September.

Speaking of the Mariners, they are now back on top of the team UZR leaderboard, slightly ahead of the Rays. The Rangers, Brewers, and Astros (!?) round out the top five. The Orioles, Mets, White Sox, Marlins, and Indians are using oven mitts in place of gloves. As are Brian Giles, Cody Ross, and Vernon Wells; the department of silly statistics has those three finishing with UZR/150 of -38 and worse.

Gotta love and hate those small sample sizes.