Delmon Young walked 53 times in his first 578 minor league plate appearances. Thereafter, he walked 44 times in 974 plate appearances. Whenever a right fielder with a power stroke, good bat control, and a strong arm comes through the minors with a resistance to the free pass like Young, you can be sure that Vladimir Guerrero comparisons will follow. Sure enough, they did. Fortunately, for Young, he managed to live up to those expectations in 2010.
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Thirteen months ago, the New York Yankees acquired Curtis Granderson from the Detroit Tigers in a three-way trade. Instead of talk about the Yankees or Tigers, most initial reactions focused on answering what the Arizona Diamondbacks were thinking. After all, trading Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth for Ian Kennedy and Edwin Jackson appeared to be a loss on paper. It’s too early to close the book on the trade, but the Diamondbacks’ return looks a lot better with a season under its belt.

Surprisingly, the Diamondbacks received the most WAR of any trade participant in 2010. Kennedy found his prospect magic and delivered 194 innings with a 4.33 FIP. Jackson, despite a poor ERA, chipped in 21 starts with strong peripherals (4.24 FIP). He ultimately found himself on his way to the Chicago White Sox for Daniel Hudson. Jackson and Hudson matched each other in WAR after the trade – two wins apiece – and thus left the D-Backs with 6.2 wins, which was more than Granderson (who had a five-plus win season) produced or the Tigers’ return. Of course, trade analysis is not that simple.

The most common complaint revolved around Scherzer’s service time and cost. He remains cheaper and further away from free agency than Jackson. Given their contract statuses, Scherzer represented the better choice if they were considered equal in talent and performance expectations. No one outside of the Arizona organization knows just how that comparative analysis looked, but the combustibility concerns that surrounded Scherzer may have tipped the scales in Jackson’s favor.

Scherzer has since changed his mechanics and produced at a ridiculously high level from that point on. Whether he would have received the same adjustments within the Arizona system is up to anyone’s guess. My inclination is to think he would not have made similar adjustments, otherwise that tinkering would have occurred at some point during his developmental process. If that is the case and Scherzer would’ve busted – and really nobody knows the probability of either event – then one can argue the Diamondbacks are actually better off now with Hudson and Kennedy than they would be with Scherzer in tow, particularly since Hudson and Kennedy are cheaper and further away from free agency than Scherzer.

Analyzing baseball players through the five-tool prism is no longer accurate. Some players can do it all, but lack one skill crucial to their playing careers: not playing the offseason game well. Rafael Soriano stands as the next possible victim of this skill set deficiency, and for the second time in as many winters.

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The nature of the season brings about a plethora of articles searching for the next ‘something’. Looking for the next breakout is a popular topic, meaning the search for the next Jose Bautista is going to be overdone. The wise Randy Moss provided the most succinct description of Bautista’s 2010 season when he said, “Take the ball deep and take the top off the defense.” Bautista did on 54 occasions, earning his place in history with the 42nd individual season featuring 50 or more home runs. If history is any indication you can call off the search party before nightfall.
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Perhaps no division has seen its pitching staffs improve as much as the National League Central. Additions of Zack Greinke and Matt Garza, the re-signing of Jake Westbrook, and the expulsion of Dave Bush should result in an improved state of pitching. As silly as it sounds, the Pittsburgh Pirates have contributed to this pitching renaissance too. Although lacking in star power, the team has made strides to field a rotation that won’t be the worst in the league next season.
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The Padres have a strict budget to adhere to thanks to possibly the worst television deal in baseball and an ownership transfer that may last through 2013. Because of that, Jed Hoyer’s team has to approach free agency with creativity if they hope to compete against teams with financial flexibility for the same players. Factor in how their ballpark limits offensive production and Hoyer has to do a great job of selling his team for desirable players to buy in. As it turns out, Hoyer is already using a clever solution by promising not to offer arbitration if his newly inked free agents reach Type A status, according to Corey Brock of MLB.com.

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A question without a correct answer: Who is the National League’s version of Brett Anderson? The answer that felt right to me at the time of this writing: Tommy Hanson.

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The Detroit Tigers have a fighter’s chance at winning the American League Central in 2011. Their lineup is going to score runs behind a middle of the order that figures to feature Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, and Victor Martinez. Justin Verlander, one of the most dependable pitchers in the game, is joined in the rotation by the above average Max Scherzer and the seemingly progressing Rick Porcello. Once contract quality is thrown out the window, the bullpen lacks noticeable flaws too, leaving the back end of the rotation as the only potential culprit separating the Tigers from late season contention.
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An uneducated expectation is a dangerous weapon. Just yesterday, while looking over the CAIRO projections one more time, I stumbled upon the Toronto Blue Jays’ modest 74 wins. The Jays fooled me last season – I joined in the fray that figured they would finish below an upstart Baltimore Orioles’ club – with an unexpected brand of offensive voodoo that resulted in roughly 750 runs. They hit a lot of home runs (257; 46 more than the next highest total and more than the Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros, and Albert Pujols combined) and they made a lot of outs (fifth lowest on-base percentage in the league). There’s a reason the Jays are the only team in league history to hit more than 250 home runs and score under 800 runs.
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Baseball season is officially creeping ever closer with the release of the first CAIRO projections. With the news cycle a little slow, these projections can serve as discussion fodder but shouldn’t be taken as gospel given the premature state of rosters and depth charts. With those necessary disclaimers out of the way, let’s do some exploring.
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