2008 Draft Slot: Fifth overall
Top Pick: Buster Posey, C, Florida State University
Best Pick: Buster Posey
Keep an Eye On: Brandon Crawford, SS, UCLA (4th round)
Notes: I’ve been on the Brandon Crawford bandwagon for a couple months now, and the reputation for having a good glove but no bat is starting to be shed. After a very good performance in A-ball, Crawford is already in double-A, although the strikeouts are starting to catch up to him. LHP Scott Barnes (St. John’s University) is another quality sleeper to keep an eye on. Supplemental first round pick Conor Gillaspie has already been in the Majors, but it was a contract stipulation, and it was not based on his production (He’s having a respectable, but unspectacular, season in ’09). Buster Posey, on the other hand, is knocking on the door for a promotion to double-A.

2007 Draft Slot: 10th overall
Top Pick: Madison Bumgarner, LHP, North Carolina high school
Best Pick: Madison Bumgarner
Worst Pick: Wendell Fairley, OF, Mississippi high school (Supplemental first round)
Notes: What is in the water in North Carolina…? Prospects just seem to come out of the woodwork, whether it’s through the prep or the college ranks. Madison Bumgarner, in less than two full years, has risen to double-A and is one of the Top 3 pitching prospects in all of baseball. The club’s other first-round pick, Tim Alderson, is another excellent pitching prospect, who was also taken out of high school and is also in double-A. With six choices before the second round, the club made a number of overdrafts to save money, rather than really reap the benefits of the once-in-a-decade (or more) opportunity to restock the system. Picks such as Wendell Fairley (29th overall), Jackson Williams (43rd) and Charlie Culberson (51st) were all picked well ahead of where many teams had them ranked going into the draft.

2006 Draft Slot: 10th overall
Top Pick: Tim Lincecum, RHP, University of Washington
Best Pick: Um, Tim Lincecum
Worst Pick: Mike McBryde, OF, Florida Atlantic (5th round)
Notes: Tim Lincecum is, as you likely know, already one of the best pitchers in the National League. The club lacked a second round pick thanks to its foray into the free agent market. Supplemental first round draft pick Emmanuel Burriss is contributing in the Majors right now. California prep pick Clayton Tanner (3rd round) is moving slowly, but the southpaw is having some solid pro results. Mike McBryde has not been a terrible pick, but he’s a tweener and is looking at a career as a triple-A outfielder and occasional injury fill-in at the MLB level… Not bad work if you can get it.

2009 Draft Slot: Sixth overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): They take the best player available and do a great job of it
MLB Club Need: First base, Relief pitching
Organizational Need: Depth just about everywhere on the diamond
Organizational Strength: Pitching, although the depth is not there, Shortstop
Notes: The Giants organization has a very straight forward draft this season with no extra picks and no lost selections. The club will have the opportunity to take an impact player at No. 6, should it choose to. Everyone knows the organization needs quality hitting prospects but the best draftees available in this spot project to be pitchers. Prep right-hander Tyler Matzek is a name being associated with the Giants by most reputable mock drafts (Baseball America, ESPN, Baseball Prospectus).

A couple weeks ago we debuted the Pitch Type Values for pitchers in the player pages allowing you to see how effective a particular pitch has been for any pitcher over the past 7 years.

We’ve now updated the player pages for batters so you can also see how well they fare against each particular pitch. In addition, this information is now available in sortable form in the leaderboards, team pages, and my team sections.

2008 Draft Slot: 15th overall
Top Pick: Ethan Martin, RHP, Georgia high school
Best Pick: Ethan Martin
Keep an Eye On: Devaris Gordon, SS, Florida community college (4th round)
Notes: The club nabbed a number of interesting names outside of the first round including RHP Josh Lindblom (2nd), OF Kyle Russell (3rd), Tom Gordon’s son SS Devaris Gordon (4th), IF Tony Delmonico (6th) and LHP Cole St. Clair (7th). Lindblom is already in double-A despite a slow start to the season. Russell has some mammoth raw power but he strikes out a lot (more than 30% in pro ball). He’s maintained a good average so far thanks to very high (and unsustainable) BABIP rates. Gordon has a career .300 average and has already stolen 29 bases so far this season in low-A ball. He’s not showing enough patience at the plate, but his ceiling is looking higher than many thought it would be. Delmonico is hitting well in pro ball, but his development has been slowed with a move behind the plate. At one point, St. Clair was a potential No. 1 draft pick but he’s a pitcher that attended Rice University… In other words, he’s hurt a lot. Martin is struggling with his control in low-A ball, but he’s putting up some nice numbers for a recent pick that was a two-way player in high school.

2007 Draft Slot: 20th overall
Top Pick: Chris Withrow, RHP, Texas high school
Best Pick: Andrew Lambo, OF/1B, California high school (4th round)
Worst Pick: James Adkins, LHP, University of Tennessee (Supplemental first round)
Notes: There were some concerns with Andrew Lambo’s makeup, but his bat has done most of his talking in pro ball and the outfielder is already in double-A at the age of 20. RHP Kyle Blair slipped in the draft due to signability and he went to the University of San Diego, where he’s developing nicely and could be a 2010 first round pick if the upward trend continues. Chris Withrow has been slowed by some injuries, as well as some control issues. James Adkins has been a disappointment to this point due mostly to too many hits allowed (9.9 H/9 in his pro career) and too few strikeouts (4.31 K/9 in 2009 at double-A).

2006 Draft Slot: 7th overall
Top Pick: Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Texas high school
Best Pick: Clayton Kershaw
Worst Pick: Preston Mattingly, SS, Indiana high school (Supplemental first round)
Notes: It’s hard to argue with Clayton Kershaw being the best Dodger pick in this draft. The high school draftee is already taking a regular turn in the club’s rotation. The organization’s second first-round pick, Bryan Morris, was sent to Boston for Manny Ramirez. After two lackluster low-A seasons, Preston Mattingly (Supplemental first round) is showing some signs of life in high-A. He is, though, not walking enough (2.8 BB%) and striking out too much (35 K%). He might develop into a utility player. The Dodgers’ activity in the free agent market led to the loss of the club’s second and third round selections. Unsigned 14th round pick RHP Alex White (North Carolina high school) could be a first rounder in 2009.

2009 Draft Slot: 36th overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): Prep players, often pitchers
MLB Club Need: Relief pitching
Organizational Need: Left-handed pitching, Left field, Second base
Organizational Strength: Shortstop, Third base
Notes: The Dodgers organization gave up its first round pick to the Arizona Diamondbacks for signing free agent second baseman Orlando Hudson. The club probably does not regret the decision one bit. The Dodgers picked up a supplemental first round pick (36th overall) for losing Derek Lowe to Atlanta. The organization also has two picks in the second round – its original selection (65th), plus the Braves’ second round pick (56th) for the Lowe signing). The organization loves to grab prep players – especially pitchers.

Today’s news that J.J. Putz has undergone surgery on his right elbow and will miss the next two months should come as a shock to no one. We talked about his obvious health problems a few weeks into the season, and the only surprise is that it took this long for the Mets to put him under the knife.

Given the information available at the time, the deal looked like a continuation of Omar Minaya overvaluing “proven” relief pitching. In retrospect, the trade to acquire Putz has been a total disaster.

To acquire J.J. Putz, Sean Green, and Jeremy Reed, Minaya gave up Aaron Heilman, Joe Smith, Jason Vargas, Endy Chavez, Mike Carp, Ezequiel Carrera, and Maikel Cleto. The Mariners then turned around and flipped Heilman for Garrett Olson and Ronny Cedeno. Here’s how the players have performed since the deal went down.

Putz – 4.25 FIP, surgery
Green – 4.92 FIP
Reed – .324 wOBA

Smith – 3.63 FIP, DL
Heilman – 5.38 FIP
Vargas – 4.81 FIP
Olson – 6.28 FIP
Chavez – .317 wOBA
Cedeno – .237 wOBA
Carp – .421 wOBA (Triple-A)
Carrera – .418 wOBA (Double-A)
Cleto – DNP, visa problems

Jason Vargas has settled in nicely as the Mariners 5th starter and has clearly been the best player in the deal to date. Endy Chavez has provided his usual excellent outfield defense, and has been worth 0.5 wins in part-time work. Carp is having a big year in the PCL, adding power his already patient approach. Carrera is proving that the “Endy Chavez in training” tag has some merit, flashing terrific defense and a lot of walks in Double-A. Olson hasn’t pitched well as a starter, but has shown the potential to be a useful LH reliever. And, of course, with the exception of Chavez, the Mariners are paying all of these guys the league minimum.

Meanwhile, the Mets are paying about $6 million this season for three guys providing replacement level performance. There’s almost no chance they’ll pick up Putz’s option for 2010, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the team decided not to offer arbitration to either Green or Reed. That would leave the Mets with a big fat zero to show for the entire deal.

They didn’t give up any future stars in the deal, but once again, trading youth for relief pitching fails to pan out. I’m pretty sure the Mets would love to have Jason Vargas, Mike Carp, and Ezequiel Carrera back, at the very least. When you give up seven guys, odds are one or two are going to come back to haunt you.

2008 Draft Slot: 25th overall
Top Pick: Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky University
Best Pick: Christian Friedrich
Keep an Eye On: Charlie Blackmon, OF, Georgia Tech University (2nd round)
Notes: The Rockies organization was very lucky that Christian Friedrich fell into its lap. He just kept sliding in the draft for no good reason and he’s had a very nice start to his pro career. Second rounder Charlie Blackmon has also had a good beginning to his career and could develop into a solid everyday center fielder or, at worst, a useful fourth or platoon outfielder. Arizona State’s Kiel Roling (6th round) is hitting .343/.421/.564 in his young pro career spanning parts of two seasons. The bad news is that he was drafted as a catcher but has solely played first base. With just three homers in 31 low-A games this season, the power may not be there to be an everyday first baseman. Keep an eye on RHP Ethan Hollingsworth (4th round), too.

2007 Draft Slot: Eighth overall
Top Pick: Casey Weathers, RHP, Vanderbilt University
Best Pick: Casey Weathers
Worst Pick: Brian Rike, OF, Louisiana Tech University (2nd round)
Notes: It seems that (almost) every time a club takes a reliever in the first round it backfires. Luckily for Rockies fans, in Casey Weathers‘ case it’s an injury that has slowed his development (Tommy John surgery) and not a regression of skills. He was throwing fairly well before the injury and should come back batter than ever. Even so, every team out there… Repeat after me: Don’t take a reliever with a Top 10 pick… Don’t take a reliever with a Top 10 pick… Don’t take a… As for Brian Rike, his average has dropped from his debut at .296 to .247 in 2008 to .213 in 2009. The power has also diminished each season.

2006 Draft Slot: Second overall
Top Pick: Greg Reynolds, RHP, Stanford University
Best Pick: Michael McKenry, C, Middle Tennessee State (7th round)
Worst Pick: Greg Reynolds
Notes: There is still some head-scratching going on as to why the Rockies took Greg Reynolds over Brad Lincoln, but both players have been slowed by injuries and neither one has reached their potential. Reynolds wasn’t a terrible pick but he’s had a lot of bad luck and his stuff has not looked nearly as good in pro ball as it did in college. The club really got very little out of this draft. The best two players were catcher Michael McKenry and right-hander Brandon Hynick (8th round), both of whom might eek out some Major League playing time.

2009 Draft Slot: 11th overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): College pitchers
MLB Club Need: Relief pitching, Third base, Left field
Organizational Need: Right field, First base, Left-handed pitching
Organizational Strength: Shortstop, Second base, Center field
Notes: The Rockies organization is poised to add some talent to the system with the 11th overall pick, as well as the final pick of the first round (32nd overall) after losing free agent reliever Brian Fuentes to the Los Angeles Angels. The club also has a supplemental first round pick (34th overall) relating to the same winter transaction. The club has been linked to a number of players (all college) including SS Grant Green, OF Tim Wheeler, RHP Alex White, and RHP Mike Leake.

When the Minnesota Twins gave up Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett to get Delmon Young and Brendan Harris, they believed they were adding one of the game’s elite young hitters. Young had been a top prospect since high school, impressing scouts with his tools and blowing through the minors with quality performances. He got to the majors at age 20 and held his own, posting a .343 wOBA in 131 plate appearances.

By pretty much any standard, Young had the pedigree of an all-star. The tools were there. The performance was there. His strike zone judgment needed some work, but it was the kind of problem that would limit him to being just a good player instead of a great one if he didn’t fix it. And, considering his age, he had plenty of time to fix it.

He has to fix a lot more than his pitch recognition now. His 2009 line stands at .231/.272/.265, and he’s fallen apart as a hitter. His K% had held steady at 19% for his first three years, but is up to 35% this year. His ISO has dropped from .115 to .034. He’s still not walking, of course, so he’s currently an aggressive hitter who strikes out a lot and doesn’t have any power. We can’t even suggest that his struggles are luck related, as his BABIP is .347. He has a .347 batting average on balls in play and is still posting a .242 wOBA. That’s remarkable.

The current version of Young combines Jeff Francouer’s pitch recognition, Adam Dunn‘s contact abilities, and Juan Pierre’s power. Just for good measure, he’s also playing the outfield like Jack Cust. Add it all up, and you have a guy who has been worth -1.3 wins in 125 plate appearances. Prorated over a full season, that’s -6.5 wins.

To put that in context, Young’s current performance is equally as far away from replacement level as Justin Upton’s current performance… just in the other direction. If Young was going to continue to perform at this level going forward, replacing him with a random Triple-A outfielder would yield about the same return as replacing that random Triple-A outfielder with an All-Star.

Delmon Young needs to go back to the minor leagues. He’s so far away from being a major league player at the moment that the Twins can’t justify putting him on the field while trying to fix him. The problem, however, is that Young is out of options, since he signed a major league contract coming out of High School. As bad as he is, Young’s not clearing waivers, so shipping him back to Triple-A is out of the question.

There don’t appear to be any easy answers here. Young isn’t just slumping – he’s broken. The Twins still want to win the AL Central, so they can’t punt left field while trying to get him on track. But, sitting on the bench for a manager he doesn’t particularly like isn’t going to help him improve either.

At this point, the Twins would probably be best served if Young went on the DL with Dontrelle Willis disease, and they used some kind of mental anguish issue to get him off the roster and let him “rehab” down in the minors. This current arrangement isn’t working for anyone.

51 games in and the Anaheim Angels are 26-25. Considering the injuries that they had to deal with in the first two months, being .500 at this point should be considered a success for the defending AL West champions. The Angels were the favorite to repeat this season, with a slight acknowledgment that Oakland might give them a run at the title. That threat has vanished as Oakland has completely fizzled and but for an outside shot that the Seattle Mariners return to their early season form, the AL West will be decided between the Angels and the Texas Rangers.

The Angels might be the better team on paper now that they are healthy, but there’s the matter of a 4.5 game lead to make up and primarily for that reason, the Angels are listed at about a 40% chance of making the post season. The next four to six weeks will say a lot in this division.

What is interesting for the Angels is that they have a lot of soon to be free agents that are likely to command significant attention in the off season and if the Angels were to so choose and sell this year, they might be able to thoroughly re-stock a farm system that has been light on producing hitting talent. Vladimir Guerrero, Chone Figgins, Bobby Abreu and Robb Quinlan all have expiring contracts. The pressure for the Angels to keep Guerrero around might result in them making a bad financial decision, ditto on Figgins.

On the pitching front, John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar along with swing man Darren Oliver are free agents after this season. Lackey might be in the same situation as Guerrero, a team and fan favorite who looks to be on the verge of being paid far too much money for a significant decline phase.

If instead the Angels decide to giddy up and go for it one more time and are buyers this summer, the question of where to add is obvious, as always in the line up. The rotation, even with the injuries, has been fine and the bullpen adequate, but the offense is once again impotent especially on the right side of the infield.

Earlier today, we talked about the Nate McLouth trade from the perspective of what McLouth should bring to Atlanta. He’s a good player and the Pirates offense will miss him. However, Neil Huntington didn’t just toss him off the ship, but felt this was a trade he had to make. Let’s look at what this deal does for Pittsburgh.

The main driver behind this deal wasn’t any of the prospects that Atlanta gave up, but instead, one that Pittsburgh already had. The Pirates top center field prospect and first round pick in 2005, Andrew McCutchen, had been cooling his heels in Triple-A waiting for a shot in the majors, and this deal opens up a full time job for the 22-year-old. A .300/.361/.493 line for Indianapolis helped convince the Pirates that he was ready for a big league role, and sure enough, he went 2 for 4 with a stolen base in his major league debut this afternoon.

McCutchen should be an upgrade over McLouth defensively, though there’s going to be a fairly significant offensive dropoff. That’s where the prospects come in – the Pirates are counting on the three players they got from Atlanta more than offsetting the switch from McLouth to McCutchen in center field.

The best of the bunch, for me, is LHP Jeff Locke. The 21-year-old lefty uses a 90-94 MPH sinking fastball to get both groundballs and strikeouts, and as we’ve talked about a lot here, pitchers who can do those two things are often very successful. Of course, pitchers who do both of those things often also have command problems, as the movement required to get grounders and swinging strikes also makes it hard to throw strikes consistently, and Locke is no exception. His 26 walks in 45 2/3 innings in High-A ball is a legitimate concern, and the lack of polish puts Locke at least two years from the majors.

The other pitcher in the deal, Charlie Morton, is closer to the majors but with quite a bit less upside. Like Locke, Morton throws a sinking fastball that gets groundball, but he lacks an outpitch and won’t rack up the same amount of swings and misses. His command has taken several steps forward in the last few years, though he still struggles to throw strikes to LHBs, so while he should be able to succeed as a strike throwing sinkerball guy, but he’s probably going to top out as a #5 starter and have trouble against line-ups stacked with opposite handed hitters.

Pittsburgh also got back an outfield prospect in the deal, as Gorkys Hernandez now finds himself in his third organization in three years. He’s an excellent athlete with terrific defensive skills, and brings terrific range to center field, which is good, because he’s probably not going to become much of a hitter. He’s not as projectable as most 21-year-olds due to his swing plane that drives the ball into the ground, which severely limits his power potential. He’s going to have to be a speedy leadoff type, but the successful hitters in that family make a lot of contact, and Hernandez does not. You can be a good hitter without power, and you can be a good hitter while striking out, but it’s almost impossible to be a good hitter without power if you also strike out a bunch.

In all, the Pirates got back one good upside arm who needs to straighten out his mechanics before he can help the big league team in 2-3 years and a couple of lower upside guys who profile as nice role players long term. Morton and Hernandez are more depth than core players, and while Locke could certainly win this trade for the Pirates on his own abilities, betting on 21-year-old A-ball pitchers is hardly ever a winning proposition.

For me, the Pirates didn’t get enough for McLouth. Getting McCutchen into the line-up is a nice perk, but that could have happened by letting him take playing time from Nyjer Morgan and Brandon Moss. If I’m giving up a +3 to +4 win 27-year-old signed to a terrific contract, I want back a little more than some guys who could fill out a roster and a pitcher who might be able to help me in 2012.

2008 Draft Slot: 23rd overall
Top Pick: Allan Dykstra, 1B, Wake Forest University
Best Pick: Jaff Decker, OF, Arizona high school (Supplemental first round)
Keep an Eye On: Logan Forsythe, 3B, University of Arkansas (Supplemental first round)
Notes: Allan Dykstra almost did not sign with the Padres after a physical raised some questions on an old injury suffered by the first baseman. He had a good (brief) debut but is struggling to hit .200 this season in low-A ball. He is, though, walking more than 20 percent in his career, so maybe he’s being a bit to patient – especially against young pitchers that throw a lot of cookies. The Padres had a nice draft and you could throw the “keep an eye on” header on a number of players including: 3B Logan Forsythe, 3B James Darnell and 2B Cole Figueroa. Forsythe is showing some power in high-A, while also hitting .329 with more walks than strikeouts. Darnell is also walking a lot one level lower, but he’s striking out at a higher rate.

2007 Draft Slot: 23rd overall
Top Pick: Nick Schmidt, LHP, University of Arkansas
Best Pick: Schmidt… because no one else has stepped up…
Worst Pick: Danny Payne, OF, Georgia Tech (Supplemental first round)
Notes: The Padres organization had eight picks before the third round, but the club just did not do quite as good of a scouting job in 2007 as it did in 2008 with fewer picks. First pick Nick Schmidt’s career was delayed by Tommy John surgery but, after missing all of 2008, he’s back striking out a lot of batters (10.62 K/9) – but he’s also walking more than five batters per nine innings. OF Kellen Kulbacki (Supplemental 1st round) had a solid 2008 season but it was in a very, very good hitter’s park and he struggled at double-A in 2009 before getting hurt. The club had five supplemental first round picks in total and none of them have stepped up consistently, but none have outright disappointed either – although Danny Payne is getting close.

2006 Draft Slot: 17th overall
Top Pick: Matt Antonelli, 3B/2B, Wake Forest
Best Pick: Matt Latos, RHP, Florida high school (11th round)
Worst Pick: Matt Antonelli
Notes: Rushed through the minors by the organization, Matt Antonelli stopped hitting the moment he reached triple-A and the promotion to the Majors in 2008 did not help at all. Last year, the infielder hit .215 in 128 triple-A games. This season… .158 in 21 games. The club’s supplemental first round pick, Kyler Burke, was traded to Chicago (NL), where he is showing promise but he’s also developing slowly. Second-round pick Chad Huffman looks like he could develop into a part-time MLB player. RHP Mat Latos was the best of the picks way down in the 11th round, where he slid due to signability. He received $1.2 million as a draft-and-follow when he signed just before the 2007 draft.

2009 Draft Slot: Third overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): College players, most often hitters
MLB Club Need: Center field, Shortstop, Catcher, Starting pitching
Organizational Need: Catcher, Shortstop, Left-handed pitching
Organizational Strength: First base, Third base
Notes: The organization has had some well-documented foibles in its first-round selections. The news surrounding the club’s third overall pick in 2009 has not been encouraging, as the rumor mill suggests the club will “go cheap” in order to spend more money on the international market, which opens up in July. Then again, another rumor had the Padres looking at prep outfielder Donovan Tate, who is asking for $6 million despite being a very raw (but athletic) baseball player.

Badly in need of an outfielder who could hit, the Braves acquired Nate McLouth from the Pirates yesterday for three prospects. Rather than rolling the dice with an unknown, the Braves acquired one of the easiest guys in baseball to project.

In 2007, McLouth posted a .364 wOBA. Last year, he posted a .369 wOBA. This year, he’s got a .367 wOBA. Despite a hot start to the season last year, you know what you’re getting with McLouth – a quality left-handed bat who draws some walks and has some power. Given an expected ~.360 to .370 wOBA over about 450 plate appearances for the rest of the season, we can expect McLouth to be worth something like 10 runs above an average hitter from here on out. It’s a nice bat.

Despite winning a gold glove last season, the glove isn’t as valuable. McLouth has consistently ranked as a below average defensive center fielder, compiling a -10.6 UZR/150 over his career. He’s a corner outfielder playing out of position in center, but he’s not an atrocity out there. He’ll let some balls fall in that you wished he could have got to, but he’ll make up for with the bat.

Remember, even with his -14.5 UZR last year, McLouth was a +3.6 win player for the Pirates, and he’s on basically the same pace this year. Over the last three years, he’s compiled 1,262 plate appearances and been worth +6.4 wins. Going forward, we should expect McLouth to be a +3 to +4 win player. That’s a borderline all-star, and definitely the kind of player the Braves needed to acquire.

Toss in the fact that McLouth signed away his arbitration years over the winter, and is now under contract for $15 million through 2011 with a club option for 2012, and the Braves have acquired a player who is significantly underpaid. Even with the economic uncertainty of the free agent market, 27-year-olds with +3 to +4 win talent should command upwards of $12 million per season. McLouth will make less than half of that.

As an acquisition, McLouth makes all kinds of sense for the Braves. He’s a high quality player signed to a team friendly contract, in the midst of his prime, and provides a significant upgrade over what they had on hand in the outfield. At 5 pm, we’ll look at what they gave up to get him, but Braves fans should certainly look forward to having McLouth in their line-up. Atlanta just got quite a bit better.