The Angels agreed to terms with relief pitcher Fernando Rodney today on a two-year, $11 million contract. This might mean that the rumor that the Phillies were interested in Rodney as well at up to $12 million for the two years was false. I hope not, because the notion that the Phillies could not afford Cliff Lee’s $9 million salary and so trade him away and then go out and offer $6 million to the mediocre Rodney is hilarious.

Either way, Rodney’s an Angel now and there will be a certain set of fans that love this move. Most of them will love it because of Rodney’s save percentage. They’re wrong — saves are an awful way of measuring a pitcher’s value, probably even worse than using wins.

Anaheim gets Rodney’s age 33 and 34 seasons, but as a reliever and with the duration of the contract, his age is not too much of a concern. Rodney had fantastic strikeout numbers the last couple seasons but those took a dive in 2009. Whereas Rodney used to maintain a solid 11-12% swinging strike rate, it was just 9% in 2009, and at least partly because of that, his strikeout rate dropped from about one out of every four batters to less than one out of every five.

That’s a pretty big red flag for me, but not to overstate it, even without that drop in strikeouts, Rodney just isn’t a great pitcher. His walk rates have just been far too high to make the overall package consistently better than average, even at the old strikeout levels. We have Rodney worth about 0.5 WAR a year throughout his entire career and I see no compelling reason for him to better that going forward.

For that half-win, the Angels are paying over $5 million, an astonishingly poor return. And given that the Angels bullpen isn’t particularly weak, I wonder if Rodney is even an upgrade at all. Furthermore, Brian Fuentes has a $9 million option for 2011 that vests with 55 games finished this coming season, so I can see it a likely scenario that the Angels use Rodney to close to avoid that option and thus push high leverage innings further out of reach of Anaheim’s better pitchers.

At best, I think the Angels might be a couple runs better for this move. Most likely, they’re exactly the same and there’s a worrisome chance that Rodney continues his strikeout slide and gets worse.

General Manager: Omar Minaya
Scouting Director: Rudy Terrasas

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-draft signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: None
2. Steve Matz, LHP, NY HS
3. Robbie Shields, SS, Florida Southern
x- Zach Dotson, LHP, Georgia HS

Matz failed to appear in a pro game after signing… He should begin 2010 in extended spring training, although the organization is known for challenging its prospects. Dotson did not play after signing, either. Shields had a poor offensive debut after a bit of a rough junior year of college. The shortstop hit just .178/.273/.267 in 146 short-season at-bats. He struck out too much (21.9%) for a player with limited power output (.089 ISO). It’s also expected that Shields will eventually move away from shortstop, possibly to second base. This certainly was not the most inspired draft of ’09… much like the club’s other recent drafts – with ’08 as the possible exception.

2008 1st Round: Ike Davis, OF, Arizona State
1. Reese Havens, IF, South Carolina
1S. Brad Holt, RHP, UNC Wilmington
2. Javier Rodriguez, OF, Puerto Rico HS
3. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF, California NAIA

This draft is about as good as it gets for Mets fans… especially if you look back over the past few years. Davis took a little bit of time to get going in pro ball, but he’s firmly on the Top 10 list this season (due to post on the site tomorrow), along with supplemental first rounder Holt, and third-rounder Nieuwenhuis.

Havens’ first full season was a disappointment and he suffered from a weak BABIP of .275. Overall, he hit .247/.361/.422 in 360 at-bats. On the plus side, he has shown some power with an ISO of .175 and a willingness to take a walk (13.3% walk rate). Havens also needs to find a position on the field. Rodriguez has proven to be quite raw. He hit .230/.285/.338 in his second go-around at rookie ball. The outfielder also posted a strikeout rate of 28.1%, which is not justifiable with an ISO of just .108. It would also be nice to see him attempt more than three steals.

Keep an eye on pitchers Scott Shaw (13th round) and Kyle Allen (24th round).

2007 1st Round: None
1S. Eddie Kunz, RHP, Oregon State
1S. Nathan Vineyard, LHP, Georgia HS
2. Scott Moviel, RHP, Ohio HS
2. Brant Rustich, RHP, UCLA
3. Eric Niesen, LHP, Wake Forest
3. Stephen Clyne, RHP, Clemson

The club lacked a first-round selection and it nabbed Kunz, who was supposed to be almost MLB-ready. Unfortunately, he’s had a rough time in pro ball and he posted a 5.53 FIP in triple-A in ’09, while also posting a poor strikeout rate (5.61 K/9) and a high walk rate (4.57 BB/9). Vineyard has battled injuries and has appeared in just 11 games in three seasons. Rustich has also had injury problems, but he’s been on the field more than Vineyard, and he’s also shown quite a bit of potential – 2.47 FIP, 8.69 K/9 rate in 47.2 high-A innings in ’09.

Moviel has shown flashes of potential and he reached high-A in ’09 where he allowed 61 hits in 64.1 innings of work and posted a strikeout rate of 6.44 K/9. He’s shown good control for a young player that stands 6’11”. Niesen reached double-A in ’09, after beginning the year in high-A, but his control suffered and his walk rate rose to 4.45 BB/9. His strikeout rate also jumped, though, to 9.22 K/9. Clyne wasn’t so luck in his jump to double-A in ’09. After posting a 3.09 FIP in the high-A bullpen, it jumped to 4.58 in double-A and his walk rate rose from 4.33 to 6.35 BB/9.

Keep an eye on sleeper prospect and third baseman Zach Lutz. He spent much of the year in high-A and hit .284/.381/.441 with a .157 ISO in 356 at-bats. Right-hander Dillon Gee (21st round) showed a lot of potential and reached triple-A in ’09 but he hurt his shoulder and missed most of this past season.

2006 1st Round: None
2. Kevin Mulvey, RHP, Villanova
3. Joe Smith, RHP, Wright State

Mulvey was used as a trading chip in the Johan Santana deal, and he was later flipped from Minnesota to Arizona. Smith spent some time in the Mets’ bullpen before getting dealt to Cleveland in the three-team J.J. Putz deal. Daniel Murphy was a nice acquisition in the 13th round, as his versatility has been of value to the Mets.

Up Next: The New York Mets Top 10 Prospects

With the recent trade (likely to be finalized today) of Seattle’s Brandon Morrow for Toronto’s Brandon League and a prospect, a lot of people have been weighing in with their opinions of the trade. As someone who follows the Jays’ minor league system very closely, I thought I’d chime in with my thoughts on Johermyn Chavez, the young Venezuelan outfielder who is said to be the “prospect.” Most of the people who have commented on his status have looked at the “glass-half-empty.”

Chavez’s first name is pronounced: Yo-Her-Min, and his name was originally spelled “Yohermyn” when he first came stateside, but he personally spells it with a “J.” He’s played mostly left field in his career, in deference to fellow outfield prospect Moises Sierra, who has perhaps the strongest outfield arm in the minors (at least Top 3). Chavez, himself, also has a plus throwing arm and profiles as a solid right fielder with average range. Due to his inexperience, at just 20 years of age, he does make too many gaffs in the field (He needs to take better routes to the ball) and on his throws.

At the plate, Chavez had a solid season in low-A ball. A lot of people have pointed to the fact that he was repeating the level, but Chavez was just 19 in his first attempt at the league, so a mulligan is well deserved. Here are his triple-slash lines from his two low-A seasons:

’08 – .211/.272/.323 in 402 at-bats
’09 – .283/.346/.474 in 508 at-bats

It’s definitely a big difference with his OPS jumping from .595 to .821 and a wOBA that rises almost .100 points from .277 to .371. His ISO also rose from .112 to .191 and Chavez finished second in the league (known for surpressing home-run totals) with 21 homers. He was behind only Kyle Russell, a 23-year-old former college star. Chavez finished tied with the Cubs’ Kyler Burke for third in RBI with 89. The Lansing team as a whole was middle-of-the-pack in the league when it came to offense (runs scored, RBI, OPS). According to Baseball America, the average triple-slash line for the Midwest League in ’09 was .256/.329/.373 and the average ISO was just .119. The average age of players in low-A ball was 21.6.

There are definitely some rough edges to the youngster’s game. He can be overly aggressive at the plate, and swing at too many “pitcher’s pitches.” His walk rate was 7.3%, which isn’t terrible, but we’d definitely prefer to see it at the 10.2% he reached in rookie ball in 2007, if not higher. His power output makes a high strikeout rate more palatable but his rate of 27% needs to come down if he’s going to hit more consistently at the upper levels of the minors – and in the Majors (His .351 BABIP helped out this season).

Chavez has also shown some speed on the base paths, although he has filled out quite a bit and now checks in at 6’3” 220 lbs. A few years ago, he weighed 180, so he’s added a lot of muscle. He needs to improve his base running a bit. Over the past two seasons, he’s stolen 19 base but he’s been caught 11 times.

By reading other Websites, such as USSmariner, it’s clear that a lot of people were hoping for a more MLB-ready prospect like right-hander Zach Stewart, or infielder Brett Wallace. They are certainly more desirable prospects at this point, so I understand the disappointment that many felt when it was announced the prospect was going to be a player in the low minors.

However, Chavez was certainly one of the Top 10 prospects (in a weaker system) that I had hoped would not be included in a trade, but he was in the latter half of the list. The outfielder originally signed his first pro contract at the age of 16 in 2005. He’s come a long way since then, and it certainly appears as though the Mariners organization acquired a diamond in the rough.

They’re not necessarily the sexiest names in town, but Coco Crisp, Brandon League, and Jason Marquis all changed teams in the past week and are all still below the 30-ballot threshold. Click here to cast your projections for the triumvirate.

Crisp suffered shoulder problems last season, and Kansas City declined his 2010 option. Oakland just signed the outfielder to a one-year, $5 million deal.

Kinda Disappointing Fireballer League is heading West in exchange for other Kinda Disappointing Fireballer Brandon Morrow. Has Baseballing Wizard Jack Zduriencik struck again?

Jason Marquis, uh, … has a cool last name? Also, he signed two-year, $15 million deal with the Nationals — which, that’s always a good sign.

Instead of going team by team this off season, I will review the divisions as a group. And whereas last year, I used a version of BaseRuns, with some modifications for strength of schedule and the like thrown in, to determine the ranking of teams’ true talent levels, this year I will use WAR as provided here on FanGraphs.

Part Four: The NL East

Last year, eventual World Series champion Philadelphia clocked in as the 8th best regular season team according to BaseRuns, which was tops in the NL East. The Mets were right on the tails though finishing 10th overall. The Marlins put up a good show with their $3.99 payroll with a 16th overall finish. The Braves were just behind them, at 18th. Meanwhile the worst of the worst, the Nationals came in at 30th.

2009’s worst team again hailed from the NL East, but you might be surprised at the name. Obviously the Nationals are the first guess, as they managed to finish with a worse record in 2009 (59-103) than in 2008 (59-102). And that guess would be close, for the Nationals came in 29th in this year’s WAR rankings with 19.7 WAR.

But not to be out done, and surprising given their 70-92 record, the Mets managed just 19.4 total WAR and were dead last in baseball. Johan Santana was the only above average starting pitcher and the bullpen, while better than its’ 2008 counterpart, was by no means re-built with Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz. The hitting and fielding was wracked by injuries and ineffectiveness and in the end the Mets ended up with the fourth worst group of pitchers and fourth worst group of position players.

For the Nationals, the hitting was not the problem, they were actually around average there. And the fielding, while not stellar, was not atrocious either. It was the pitching that crippled this team, second worst in baseball at just 3.7 wins in total. The Nationals registered just four pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched and an above average tRA and the four combined to be a total of 9.2 runs above average. Just an incredibly deep group of suck.

Here’s a summary of the ranks for the NL East teams, with 2008 first.
PHI: 8, 8
NYM: 10, 30
FLO: 16, 17
ATL: 18, 7
WAS: 30, 29

Though it’s quite brief, I have to believe that Jeff Sullivan’s post on the correlation between pitcher contact rates and strikeouts from this past August has got to be one of the most exciting of the year. It makes so much sense — miss bats, get strikeouts — and yet Mr. Sullivan appears to be the only one on the interweb (besides our own Matthew Carruth) asking substantive questions about it*.

*If there are others, please don’t hesitate to mention them below.

You can see the correlation between the two in this image I’ve stolen directly, unforgivably from Lookout Landing:

That’s pretty striking. And it begs a question: If the correlation between Contact% and pitcher strikeouts is so strong, then couldn’t Contact% help us understand which pitchers might be poised to top the strikeout charts next year?

Yes. With some caveats.

In that same post to which I’ve linked above, Sullivan also notes that, beyond Contact% (league average 80.5%), pitchers also control their strikeout rates by other means, such as First-Pitch Strike% (league average 58.2%), Zone% (league average 49.3%), Called Strike%, etc. While none of these factors correlate as strongly as Contact% to pitcher strikeout rates, it does appear as though they’re not entirely negligible, either. To that end, I’ve included the first two of those below for comparison’s sake.

What happens when we run the 2009 numbers for Expected K%s (xK%)? That’s the question I asked myself — and which I answered, I think, by means of the kinda dumpy looking table you see below. Here are the Top 10 starting pitchers (50+ IP) by Contact% with expected and actual strikeout rates, plus K/9:

So, what do we see here? Some likely suspects, for sure: Harden, Lincecum, Vazquez, de la Rosa. But also some surprises: Felipe Paulino (second!), Gio Gonzalez (third!), and Bud Norris. The first two of those guys I wrote about last week as tRA* surprises. Bud Norris I didn’t mention, but he actually finished 66th in tRA* out of the 183 pitchers with 150+ xOuts.

What conclusions can we draw from this? Well, we should probably be careful about that, as more research needs to be done in this area. Still, it’s probably reasonable — given his xK% and overall profile — to expect at least a small improvement in strikeouts from Felipe Paulino. Moreover, there’s reason to think — given his excellent Zone% — to think that Bud Norris will probably turn some of his walks into strikeouts.

How well do you think Norris will perform in 2010? Enter your Fan Projection here.

General Manager: Brian Cashman
Farm Director: Pat Roessler
Scouting Director: Damon Oppenheimer

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

The Yankees organization has some pretty good depth in the system, but it’s a little shy on impact players (at least compared to years past). The top of the list looks good with a couple of catchers, and then we see some raw, promising arms. Things, though, start to get murky at No. 6 and beyond as we start to rate relievers and very raw players.

*A rumored trade with Atlanta was announced this morning with Javier Vazquez coming back to New York for Melky Cabrera, as well as two Top 10 prospects: Michael Dunn and Arodys Vizcaino. Once it’s 100% confirmed, I’ll update the list with a couple new Top 10 prospects.

1. Jesus Montero, C/DH, Double-A
DOB: November 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The cream of the Yankees system, Montero would probably be the top catching prospect in the entire Majors if he didn’t possess the defensive skills of a future designated hitter. His potential at the plate, though, is just massive. At the age of just 19, Montero hit .356/.406/.583 in 180 high-A at-bats in ’09. Moved up to double-A as a teenager, he hit .317/.370/.539 in 167 at-bats. His .200+ ISO at each level suggests massive power. Montero also controls the strike zone very well for such a young hitter and he struck out just 12.6% of the time in double-A. His walk rate was also reasonable at 7.7%, although there is room for improvement as he matures as a hitter. He did miss some time due to injury. The sky is the limit for Montero and his bat would play anywhere on the field.

2. Austin Romine, C, High-A
DOB: November 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 2nd round – California HS
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

With Montero ticketed for another position, Romine is the club’s catcher of the future. The 21-year-old backstop had an OK offensive season in ’09 by hitting .276/.322/.441 in 442 at-bats. He kept his strikeout rate below 20% at 17.6% and showed improved power with his ISO rising from .138 in ’08 to .165 in ’09. Romine’s walk rate was a little lower than you’d like (6.2 BB%) but he’s still young and has time to improve that area of his game. A good athlete, the right-handed hitter stole 11 bases but was caught five times. After a strong performance in April-July, Romine struggled a bit in August and September but he may have run out of steam. His older brother, Andrew Romine, plays in the Angels system.

3. Zach McAllister, RHP, Double-A
DOB: December 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 3rd round – Illinois HS
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

McAllister just keeps getting better. The 22-year-old reached double-A in ’09 and posted a 3.03 FIP in 22 starts. He allowed 98 hits and just four homers (0.30 HR/9) in 121.0 innings. McAllister typically posts a 50+% ground-ball rate but it slipped to 47.4% in ’09. He handled left-handed and right-handed batters equally well in terms of batting average (.234), but he showed better control against right-handers (1.17 to 3.79 BB/9) and a better strikeout ability against left-handers (8.03 to 5.55 K/9). At worst, he should settle in as a No. 3 starter in the Majors if he can stay healthy.

4. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Short-Season
DOB: November 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-95 mph, plus curveball, change-up

Vizcaino had a very impressive season as a teenager in short-season ball. He missed a lot of bats with a strikeout rate of 11.06 K/9 and he kept the walks in check at 3.19 BB/9. In 42.1 innings, Vizcaino allowed just 34 hits and two homers (0.43 HR/9). His ground-ball rate improved 10% over his debut season in ’08 to 48%, which is a positive trend that will hopefully continue in 2010. If he reaches his potential, Vizcaino has the stuff to be a front-line starter… but he’s also a ways away from the Majors.

5. Manny Banuelos, LHP, High-A
DOB: March 1991 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 non-drafted international free agent (Mexico)
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 87-92 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

A young, inexperienced southpaw, Banuelos exceeded expectations in ’09 and even received a one-game taste of life in high-A ball. Spending the majority of the year in low-A, the Mexico native allowed just 88 hits in 108.0 innings of work. He showed solid control with a walk rate of 2.33 BB/9 and a nice strikeout rate at 8.67 K/9. He also allowed just three homers (0.33 HR/9) despite a modest ground-ball rate of 43.4%. Banuelos has had little trouble in pro ball so far, but there are those that doubt his ability to remain a starter because of his small frame. He could reach double-A in 2010 as a 19-year-old.

6. Michael Dunn, LHP, Majors
DOB: May 1985 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2004 33rd round – Austin Peay State University
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-94 mph fastball, plus slider, change-up

The trade of Phil Coke (to the Tigers in the Curtis Granderson deal) suggests that the club is comfortable relying on Dunn in 2010, if a veteran arm cannot be found on the free-agent landscape. A former starter, Dunn found consistency in the bullpen and reached the Majors in ’09 for the first time in his career. The southpaw still needs to work on his control, though, after posting a walk rate of 5.40 (53.1 IP) at double-A, 6.30 BB/9 (20.0 IP) at triple-A, and by allowing five walks in four MLB innings. Aside from his small-sample size in the Majors, Dunn has done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park (0.51 HR/9 in double-A). If he can improve his control and induce even a few more ground-ball (his GB rate sits around 40%) then Dunn’s stuff is good enough to work late in games.

7. Mark Melancon, RHP, Majors
DOB: March 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 9th round – University of Arizona
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 88-94 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Melancon was ready for a full-time role in New York in ’09 but the club’s pitching depth kept him as an injury fill-in, so he appeared in just 13 games at the MLB level in ’09. He spent the rest of his time making 32 appearances in triple-A, where he allowed just 37 hits in 53 innings. Melancon also flashed above-average control with a walk rate of 1.87 BB/9. His solid control deserted him in the Majors, though, and he walked 10 batters in 16.1 innings. A regular role in 2010 might help him find his groove in the Majors. He looks like a future set-up man at the MLB level, although he could eventually see some save opportunities, as well.

8. Corban Joseph, 2B, Low-A
DOB: October 1988 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 4th round – Tennessee HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The biggest knock on Joseph is his defense. It’s not terrible, but he projects better at third base than second, which is not a good thing because his bat profiles better at second base. In other words, if he can stick at second, then he deserves to be on this list; if he ends up moving to third on a full-time basis, then he’ll fall off. In ’09, he hit .300/.381/.418 in 380 at-bats. His ISO of .118 definitely won’t play at third base. He stole eight bases but was caught five times, so he needs to improve his base running a bit if he’s going to have an impact on the base paths. Joseph’s walk rate was solid at 11.4% and it was nice to see him keep the strikeout rate below 20% at 16.1%. His offensive profile is solid, but unspectacular. On a club like the Yankees, he’s probably a future utility player, but if he continues to develop he could end up playing regularly for a second-tier club if he shows enough at second base.

9. Kevin De Leon, OF, Rookie
DOB: October 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2014 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

This might be a high ranking for some, but let’s dream on De Leon, who was given a $1.1 million contract to sign. His first taste of pro ball came in the Dominican Summer League in ’08 and he moved stateside in ’09. At the rookie ball level, the raw outfielder hit .269/.330/.438 in 201 at-bats. His walk rate was pretty reasonable for a young Latin player at 7.4 BB% but his strikeout rate was a little scary at 30.3%. De Leon does have some power, though, and his ISO of .169 was encouraging. He stole five bases in six tries, so he’ll hopefully run a little more in 2010. No matter how you slice it, a .361 wOBA is nice for a teenager making his North American debut. Defensively, his arm is strong enough to play right field.

10. Andrew Brackman, RHP, Low-A
DOB: December 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – North Carolina State University
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 88-95 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Almost against my better judgment, Brackman sneaks onto the back-end of the Top 10 list, mainly due to the fact that the list is somewhat bare with excluding ’09 draft picks (Slade Heathcott) and international signees (catcher Gary Sanchez). You cannot argue with the potential that Brackman has, but the numbers in low-A ball were pretty nasty, especially for a 24-year-old former college hurler. With that said, the right-hander deserves a mulligan due to the Tommy John surgery he had after signing. The positives from ’09: a ground-ball rate just shy of 50%, a strikeout rate of 8.69 K/9, and just eight homers allowed (0.68 HR/9). The negatives to Brackman’s ’09 season: 6.41 BB/9, 4.66 FIP, 26 wild pitches. He needs a good showing in 2010 for people to keep believing in him.

Up Next: The New York Mets

Failing to find a taker for Derek Lowe, the Braves went to Plan B today, trading Javier Vazquez to the Yankees for Melky Cabrera, Arodys Vizciano, and Mike Dunn. The reaction to this deal on Twitter has not been kind to Atlanta, with most people concluding that the Yankees got Vazquez for peanuts.

I’m not so sure. Melky Cabrera may not have superstar upside, but he’s a quality young player with little projection required. He posted a .331 wOBA last season, making him roughly a league average hitter, and he didn’t turn 25 until August. He’s got good contact skills and gap power, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see some of his doubles turn into home runs as he ages.

Defensively, he’s below average – but not terrible – in center, and he’d make for a quality defensive corner outfielder if that’s where the Braves choose to use him. All told, he’s roughly a league average player, with upside to develop into something a bit above average.

That has value, especially as a young player who will make far below his market value this year.

But it’s not Cabrera who makes this deal work for Atlanta – that’s Vizcaino, an underhyped 19-year-old who destroyed A-ball as a teenager. The classic projectable teenage arm, Vizciano throws a mid-90s fastball with a hard breaking curve, and has proven nearly unhittable in his brief professional career. He’s not close to the majors, but he’s a significant upside bet for Atlanta long term.

Vazquez is a quality pitcher and the Braves will miss him, no doubt, but they saved roughly $8 million in salary (once you account for Melky’s arbitration award), added a league average outfielder and one of the best young arms in baseball. Perhaps it isn’t the price that top flight starters used to command, but when viewed in today’s market, this is a pretty decent deal for Atlanta. This is a significantly better return than what Philadelphia got for Cliff Lee, for instance.

The Yankees get better, of course, but you already knew that. Don’t hate this deal for Altanta – they’ll come out of it okay as well.

In many cases, the battle to convince those that rely on traditional metrics for player evaluation is a losing one. Consider, for example, this tweet from Mike Silva.

Trying to figure out why I should take stats with a lower case letter in front seriously

Of course, fans, writers, players, GMs, and all others are certainly welcome to watch, enjoy, and interpret the game in their own way. However, the argument that certain advanced statistics are too convoluted or complicated, whereas traditional stats are best for their simplicity, is simply not an argument grounded in logic.

Consider ERA. The formula behind earned run average is, indeed, quite simple – ERA = 9*ER/IP. Perhaps most appealing, the answer to the question “What is ERA?” has a one sentence answer: the amount of earned runs a pitcher gives up in nine innings.

Still, we are introducing what is a slightly abstract concept here. An earned run is any run for which the pitcher is held accountable. Anybody who has scored a baseball game using a pencil and paper system has likely grappled with the question of whether or not a run is earned. Courtesy of Wikipedia, here’s a handy list of which runs are unearned:

-A batter reaches base on an error (including catcher’s interference), and later scores a run in that inning by any means.
-A baserunner remains on base as the result of an error on a fielder’s choice play that would put the baserunner out except for an error, and subsequently scores.
-A batter reaches first base on a passed ball (but not a wild pitch) and subsequently scores by any means.
-A baserunner scores after the third out would have been made except for an error other than catcher’s interference.
-A batter reaches base on a fielder’s choice which removes a baserunner who has reached base safely on an error or has remained on base as the result of an error, reaching first base on a passed ball on a called or swinging third strike, or remained on base on an error on a fielders’ choice play that should have retired him, and subsequently scores.
-A batter or runner advances one or more bases on an error or passed ball and scores on a play that would otherwise not have provided the opportunity to score.

OK. Simple enough, right? Once we’ve accounted for these largely subjective criteria, including the error, another abstract concept, supposedly we arrive at a number telling us how many runs the pitcher was responsible for. If a ball goes off Franklin Gutierrez‘s glove as he shows great range but just misses, it is not the pitcher’s fault, but if a ball gets under Brad Hawpe‘s glove within any other RF’s range, it’s Ubaldo Jimenez’s responsibility.

Consider me unconvinced. Pure runs allowed does a better job of conveying a pitcher’s true talent, as it avoids this rather arbitrary system of responsibility which leads to unwarranted penalization or not enough penalization of the pitcher. However, for generations we have thought of ERA as the best measurement of a pitcher’s talent.

The real issue is that ERA does not answer the relevant questions about pitching performances. It doesn’t answer either “Who pitched the best?” or “Who will pitch the best?” That is, whose pitching performance was most valuable to his team? Whose performance, based on available data, is likely to be the best going forward? ERA’s weaknesses when it comes to providing these answers aren’t difficult to find, and it’s for these reasons that we use superior statistics such as FIP and tRA, both of which come much closer to achieving this goal.

The Washington Nationals are the winners of the Jason Marquis derby. His contract is for 2-years, $15 million. Marquis is coming off a career year in which he was worth 3.8 WAR. He started the season strong but struggled down the stretch, pitching himself off of Colorado’s playoff roster. His previous two seasons with the Cubs he was good for 3.5 WAR combined.

Marquis’ success is predicated on keeping the ball on the ground and in the park, two things he excelled at last year. His groundball rate of 56% was a career high and he allowed just .63 HR/9 in Colorado, of all places. The increase of groundballs is encouraging, but his 1.44 K/BB ratio means he’s dancing on the edge of a knife.

All in all, Jason Marquis is the walking definition of a league-average innings-muncher. I don’t mean that as a knock, that certainly has value. CHONE projects Marquis to be 1.8 wins above replacement in 2009. At $7.5 million per, the dollars aren’t too bad. To this point the market is paying about $3.8 million per win; Marquis is coming at around $4-4.3 per win for the Nats.  He’s certainly an upgrade over household names such as J.D. Martin or Craig Stammen.

But here’s the rub. What exactly is the point of spending $4 million for a win when you’re the Nationals? The team currently has maybe seventy-something win talent and they’re well on their way to becoming basement dwellers in the NL East yet again. Signing an innings-eater such as Marquis to a contract like this makes zero sense; all he does is makes the Nationals slightly less bad than they were a year ago.

If the Nationals wanted to fill a spot, why not just sign a Ken Phelps All-Star like Lenny DiNardo  (whom CHONE projects to be worth 1.7 WAR) and save the millions for Bryce Harper?

I’m also enjoying the irony that Stephen Strasburg is getting paid $15 million from the Nationals for four years, while Marquis is getting the same for two. Those wacky draft picks are just so overpaid, right Rob Dibble?