In line with our Fabulous Split Week here at FanGraphs, this post will utilize the framework for estimating hitter platoon skill outlined on Monday. If you crave more details, read that post, or, even better, take a look at the sections from The Book on which it is based. Today, I’ll apply this analysis to four of the remaining DH-ish players left on the free agent market. This will allow us to set aside issues of defense and get a simple overview at how platoon skill effects the value of some hitters. Recalling Monday’s post, platoon skills are regressed to the mean (here based on league-wide splits 2007-2009), moreso for righties (regressed against 2200 PA) than for lefties (1000 PA).* For the projected overall wOBA, I use CHONE’s projections as listed on the FanGraphs player pages.

* David Appelman informs me that the “career splits” pages only include stats starting in 2002. That’s helpful in this case because we’re getting the more recent data for older players, although platoon skills usually don’t change much over most players’ careers. But keep in mind that the “career” numbers listed below are post-2002.

Let’s begin with some lefties:

Russell Branyan
Career Split: 15.2% (437 PA v LHP)
Regressed: 10.6%
CHONE projected wOBA: .359
Estimated wOBA vs. RHP: .367
Estimated wOBA vs. LHP: .329

Like most saber-nerds, I love talking about Russell Branyan. Although he has a platoon-guy rep, in 2009, when he got more PAs against LHP than ever before in his major-league career, he hit well against them (.345 wOBA). It’s still a small sample, but it does show that sometimes regression to the mean happens right before our eyes. Branyan actually projects as about league average vs. LHP. His back is problematic and he probably went into the off-season with unrealistic expectations about what he could get in free agency, but it’s hard to believe he won’t find a starting job before Opening Day.

Carlos Delgado
Career Split: 18.2% (1400 PA v LHP)
Regressed: 14.2%
CHONE projected wOBA: .337
Estimated wOBA vs. RHP: .352
Estimated wOBA vs. LHP: .304

In an earlier post on free agent 1B/DHes, I hinted that the once-great Delgado might want to consider hanging it up. But this is a case where a larger split makes a guy more valuable with a decent platoon partner.

Hank Blalock
Career Split: 21.8% (1060 PA v LHP)
Regressed: 15.4%
CHONE projected wOBA: .328
Estimated wOBA vs. RHP: .342
Estimated wOBA vs. LHP: .291

It may seem like Hank Blalock was good just a couple years ago, but it’s really been six. He has even a bigger splits than Delgado, but he’s also not as good of a hitter in general. A .342 wOBA part-time DH can be useful, but not often.

And now some righties…

Jermaine Dye
Career Split: 9.1% (1196 PA v LHP)
Regressed: 7.1%
CHONE projected wOBA: .345
Estimated wOBA vs. RHP: .338
Estimated wOBA vs. LHP: .363

Dye seems to have realized he can’t play the field anymore, which is good. Given how long he’s been in the league relative to Ryan Garko (discussed in Monday’s post), that their estimated split is almost exactly the same points to how much observed RHH platoon splits need to be taken with a grain of salt.

Johny Gomes
Career Split: 15.4% (600 PA v LHP)
Regressed: 8.1%
CHONE projected wOBA: .336
Estimated wOBA vs. RHP: .327
Estimated wOBA vs. LHP: .354

Now this is a righty with a big split, although not as big as people think. Despite Gomes’ reputation, his estimated platoon split isn’t any bigger than the average lefty split. Of course, he’s only about average against RHP.

This small selection reflects what we’d generally expect — lefties have larger splits that vary more widely. This implies that when setting up a platoon, given similar defensive skills (or lack thereof), the key is finding a lefty with a big split, and to find a RHH who is a decent overall hitter. And, of course, there’s the issue of whether bringing in a platoon partner is worth the roster spot. For example, given that the expected performance of Gomes and Dye (the lesser half of the platon) vs. LHP isn’t that much better than Branyan’s overall projection. On the other hand, on the right team, Gomes or Dye + Delgado might make sense.

As soon as I heard about the new split data at FanGraphs I had one thought: Aaron Hill. Maybe not everyone’s first thought, but if you recall, the surprise third-leading AL HR hitter pulled his HRs like crazy. Dave C. had a post about it, you could see it over at HitTracker, and I reproduce the data for you here:

Crazy. Not only almost all pulled, but most extremely so and no HRs on pitches on the outer quarter of the plate. That one HR to right was off Joba Chamberlain on July 5th at Yankee Stadium. Thanks to the indispensable HitTracker we know that the 369-foot shot was a home run thanks to the short porch in right at Yankee Stadium and would not have made it out of any other park. So even that one opposite-field HR hardly counts, which also discounts one of his few HRs on a pitch on the outer half of the plate.

So what do Hill’s 2009 spray-chart splits look like?

 Hill
              ISO   wOBA   HR/FB
 to Left     .410   .503   .443
 to Center   .127   .317   .042
 to Right    .078   .240   .013
 
 Average RHB
              ISO   wOBA   HR/FB
 to Left     .282   .419   .272
 to Center   .126   .340   .054
 to Right    .124   .279   .028

They do not disappoint. To his pull (left) field Hill is nearly the equal of Mark Reynolds or Russell Branyan to their pull fields (the examples are pulled from Dave C.’s post about power to all fields and, to be fair, those guys are noted for their even power to all fields, but still Aaron Hill has just slightly less power to left than Mark Reynolds does). To right, though, he has much less power than the average RHB, so much so that — and remember this is the AL batter with the third most HRs in 2009 — an opposite field ball in play from Hill had the same ISO as the average David Eckstein ball in play. Yikes.

So Hill has enormous power when he pulls the ball, how does this power look as a function of where he he is pitched?

Although the pattern is not surprising I think the extent of it is. Hill’s power reaches its peak about a half farther inside than the average RHB and it only drops off slightly as you move in from there. The drop off is so slight that he has more power on pitches right on the inner edge of the plate than the average RHB has on a pitch down the fat of the plate. That is not to say I think this is his true talent; as with all stats, if we want to predict how he will do in 2010 it would be best to regress this back to average some. Still, I think it is safe to say Hill should crush inside pitches in 2010 even though it may not be to the same extent as it was in 2009.

General Manager: Ned Colletti
Farm Director: De Jon Watson
Scouting Director: Logan White

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-slot signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st round: Aaron Miller, LHP, Baylor
2. Blake Smith, OF, California
2. Garrett Gould, RHP, Kansas HS
3. Brett Wallach, RHP, California CC

A two-way player in college, Miller had little trouble adjusting to full-time pitching in his pro debut. The lefty posted a 3.17 FIP in seven low-A starts while tossing up a strikeout rate of 11.27 K/9. His walk rate was respectable at 2.97 BB/9 and he allowed just 22 hits in 30.1 innings of work. Smith, 22, had a poor start in rookie ball by hitting under .220 with little power or speed. He also struck out almost 40% of the time.

Gould pitched just 2.2 innings after signing and should return to rookie ball in ’10. Wallach made 12 starts and posted a 4.17 FIP while allowing 34 hits in 31.0 innings of work. He did a nice job striking out batters (11.03 K/9) but he struggled with his control (4.35 BB/9).

2008 1st round: Ethan Martin, RHP, Georgia HS
2. Josh Lindblom, RHP, Purdue
3. Kyle Russell, OF, Texas
9. Steve Caseres, 1B, James Madison
11. Nate Eovaldi, RHP, Texas HS

Both Martin and Lindblom appear on the club’s Top 10 list. Russell showed some good power in ’09 but but he doesn’t project to hit for a high average in the upper levels of the minors (He hit .272 in ’09 but had a .382 BABIP). He also struck out a whopping 37.4% of the time. On the plus side, he showed the ability to be a 20-20 player and he walked 12.8% of the time. He’ll be 24 years old part way through 2010 and has yet to play above low-A.

Caseres, soon to be 23, had a modest season by hitting .260/.360/.468 in 393 high-A at-bats. He also struck out at a rate of 29.5% of the time. Eovaldi received some consideration for the Top 10 list but he was hurt by a low strikeout rate of 6.63 K/9 in low-A ball. His walk rate was also creeping up into dangerous territory at 3.83 BB/9. Eovaldi did a nice job of keeping the ball in the park with just two homers allowed in 96.1 innings. The club scored with Devaris Gordon (4th round) and Carl (Allen) Webster (18th), both of whom appear in the Top 10.

2007 1st round: Chris Withrow, RHP, Texas HS
1S. James Adkins, LHP, Tennessee
2. Michael Watt, LHP, California HS
3. Austin Gallagher, 3B, Pennsylvania HS

Withrow is amongst the Dodgers’ 10 best prospects. Adkins has struggled since turning pro and he posted a 4.58 FIP in 27 double-A games in ’09. His walk rate was 4.67 BB/9 while his strikeout rate was just 5.26 K/9. Watt was traded to the San Diego Padres, while Gallagher missed most of ’09 with an injury and hit just .257/.319/.345 in 226 at-bats. Andrew Lambo (4th round) made the Top 10 list.

2006 1st round: Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Texas HS
1. Bryan Morris, RHP, Tennessee CC
1S. Preston Mattingly, SS, Indiana HS
2. None
3. None

The club scored with Kershaw, who is currently in the big league rotation, but that’s about it with this draft. Morris was inconsistent, and hurt… and was later traded on to Pittsburgh. Mattingly has failed to hit. This past season he batted just .238/.296/.350 in 454 high-A at-bats, while also striking out at a rate of 33.0%. Kyle Orr (4th round) is a player to keep an eye on.

Up Next: The Los Angeles Dodgers Top 10 Prospects

The mention of Jered Weaver’s platoon splits yesterday raised a few questions, with both Eric Van and Jeremy Greenhouse speculating that his arm slot could be the cause of his ability to limit hits on balls in play and home runs on fly balls versus right-handed hitters. In his career, RHBs have only racked up a 5.6% HR/FB and a .282 BABIP against Weaver, though he’s basically average in both of these categories against LHBs.

Putting Weaver aside for a second, I think the issue of whether or not BABIP and HR/FB rates are affected by handedness is worth thinking about. We know that certain pitches exhibit large platoon splits in walk rates, strikeout rates, and groundball rates – the two-seam fastball isn’t nearly as effective against opposite handed hitters, for instance. It’s essentially a totally different pitch to an LHB than an RHB. Does this carry over to things that we’ve presumed are not repeatable skills overall, such as HR/FB and BABIP?

This isn’t a conclusive study by any means, but I thought I’d start digging into it a bit. To begin, I asked David for the league average splits by handedness, 2002 to 2009, which I’ll present below.

RHB vs RHP: 44% GB%, 36% FB%, 12% IFFB%, .296 BABIP, 10.3% HR/FB
RHB vs LHP: 42% GB%, 38% GB%, 11% IFFB%, .303 BABIP, 10.5% HR/FB

LHB vs LHP: 46% GB%, 34% FB%, 11% IFFB%, .298 BABIP, 10.4% HR/FB
LHB vs RHP: 44% GB%, 35% FB%, 9% IFFB%, .306 BABIP, 10.9% HR/FB

You’ll notice that there is an average platoon split for BABIP, though its small – 7 or 8 points. There’s not really any significant HR/FB platoon split, at least in the aggregate. Despite the big platoon splits that are exhibited in things like strikeout rate, those don’t appear to carry over to BABIP or HR/FB rates.

Of course, the original question wasn’t whether all pitchers are able to suppress these two “luck” statistics against same handed hitters, but whether a pitcher with a certain type of arm angle could generate an advantage and beat the averages. Weaver is one example of a pitcher whose career data suggest that he may be able to, but we’re talking just over 300 innings against right-handers in his career, so the samples are too small to draw any firm conclusions.

So I went looking for other examples, based on similarly strange arm angled pitchers. Here’s the guys I chose to look up, based on my experience with watching them add some deception to their delivery with frequency:

Orlando Hernandez:

Vs LHB: .289 BABIP, 11% HR/FB
Vs RHB: .275 BABIP, 9% HR/FB

Vicente Padilla:

Vs LHB: .324 BABIP, 12% HR/FB
Vs RHB: .273 BABIP, 10% HR/FB

Bronson Arroyo:

Vs LHB: .298 BABIP, 12% HR/FB
Vs RHB: .291 BABIP, 8% HR/FB

Brian Fuentes:

Vs RHB: .294 BABIP, 9% HR/FB
Vs LHB: .324 BABIP, 7% HR/FB

Sean Green:

Vs LHB: .299 BABIP, 10% HR/FB
Vs RHB: .332 BABIP, 6% HR/FB

It’s only five pitchers, and guys like Arroyo and Padilla don’t pitch exclusively from a Weaver-esque arm angle, but it’s still interesting to note that all five pitchers have lower HR/FB rates against same handed hitters than opposite handed hitters – even Fuentes and Green, who do not follow the BABIP prevention vs same handed hitter trend. Both of those guys give up significantly more hits on balls in play against same handed hitters, but still manage to hold down the rate of fly balls that head over the wall.

Additionally, we’ve observed that a decent amount of relief pitchers generally have lower HR/FB rates than starting pitchers. Given that relievers face same handed hitters with more frequency than starters, this also points to there being certain types of pitchers who can sustain a platoon split on HR/FB rate.

This is nowhere near an exhaustive study, but the results are interesting enough that we should keep digging.

As a few of you have noticed, tRA was on hiatus for a couple days. Now it’s back, but as tERA. Quite simply, tRA is on a runs allowed scale and not an earned runs allowed scale, which I believed caused some confusion, especially when I placed it right next to xFIP, which is on an ERA scale.

It seemed the natural thing to do was to compare tRA to ERA/FIP/xFIP and with tRA on a runs allowed scale that didn’t quite work, but now it should.

To convert back to tRA, just divide by .92.

After coming off what can only be described as a terrible year with the Milwaukee Brewers, the team declined to pick up Braden Looper’s $6 million option. Now, as the date for pitchers and catchers to report inches closer and closer, Looper is still without a job. He is resistant to taking a minor league or non-guaranteed deal, and is likely looking for a multi-million dollar contract.

It is unlikely that his HR/FB remains at the crazy 15.8% mark that it was last year, but Looper has struggled with home runs since becoming a starter, and for that reason his effectiveness will be limited. Looper was converted to a starter after struggling as a closer, but in reality, his issues as both a closer and a starter stem from the same issue – a very high platoon split.

In both roles, it is impossible to avoid seeing opposite handed batter. Closers will see opposite-handed players come off the bench to maximize platoon leverage, and starters have to face the opposite-handed side of platoons.

Last year, Looper struggled in every controllable facet of pitching against lefties. He gave up significantly more HR and BB despite facing 46 fewer left handed batters, and after accounting for this difference, he still struck out fewer. His 6.82 FIP against lefties was well below replacement level, and even his 5.22 xFIP is dangerously near it. If Looper had ran something similar to his 4.83 FIP against righties, he could have provided at least a minimal value to the Brewers. Instead, he was nearly a win below replacement level.

This is essentially right in line with career norms for Looper, whose FIP against same-handed batters is over a run better than that against lefties, almost completely due to his penchant for allowing home runs to these batters. Over 1800 TBF vs. LHB and 2200 TBF vs. RHB, this suggests that there is a platoon split at work here, even if his true split likely isn’t quite a whole run per 9 innings.

That means that Looper would likely thrive in a role where he could be pulled against a run of left handed batters (or even just one), such as a middle relief role. With a 4.03 FIP in 2257 TBF vs. RHB, and over half of that accrued as a starter, we could reasonably expect a sub 3.50 FIP out of Looper in a role with limited exposure to LHBs, due to the bonus we typically see with the move from starter to reliever. That type of production, even in middle-relief type innings, may actually be more valuable than the near 5.00 FIP Looper would be projected to run as a starter.

It may not be the most attractive idea to Looper or his agent, but his best bet to be a productive major league player again may be in a role of this type.

While I was busy looking at increases and drops in fastball speeds, I also made note of the frequency with which fastballs were thrown by each pitcher. As noted previously, changes in fastball speed appeared to have no overwhelming correlation with changes in how often pitchers used their fastball.

Which pitchers did deviate the most from their 2008 ratio then? Glad you asked. Here are the top twenty greatest reductions in fastball usage, according to BIS pitch typing, with a minimum of 50 innings pitched in both 2008 and 2009.

Brian Bannister, -42.8%
Scott Feldman, -19.1%
Sean Marshall, -17.2%
Pat Misch, -15.5%
Nick Masset, -15.2%
Dan Wheeler, -14.8%
Braden Looper, -14.3%
Daniel Cabrera, -13.1%
Brandon Lyon, -12.9%
Tony Pena, -12.8%
Juan Cruz, -12.8%
Scott Kazmir, -11.2%
Mariano Rivera, -11.0%
Ryan Franklin, -10.5%
Brad Ziegler, -10.4%
Tim Lincecum, -10.3%
Cla Meredith, -10.2%
Matt Capps, -9.9%
Lance Cormier, -9.8%
Chad Billingsley, -9.5%

Brian Bannister is obviously a special case as he all but abandoned his traditional fastball in favor for a cutter in 2009. Scott Feldman too went to more of a cut fastball in 2009, explaining his drop. There are legitimate departures on this list however. Sean Marshall tossed a breaking ball about 14% more often in 2009. Pat Misch fell in love with his slider and changeup. Scott Kazmir returned to his pre-2008 fastball and slider levels.

The reverse list also has some interesting names on it. The top twenty greatest increases in fastball usage.

Jamie Moyer, 18.4%
Miguel Batista, 15.7%
Joel Pineiro, 12.6%
Guillermo Mota, 12.3%
Francisco Cordero, 12.0%
Nick Blackburn, 11.1%
Aaron Laffey, 9.4%
Jesse Carlson, 9.2%
CC Sabathia, 7.8%
Clay Buchholz, 7.4%
John Lannan, 7.1%
Brad Lidge, 6.9%
Francisco Rodriguez, 6.8%
Brian Bass, 6.5%
Derek Lowe, 6.4%
Hiroki Kuroda, 6.2%
Justin Masterson, 6.1%
Matt Thornton, 5.9%
Russ Springer, 5.8%
Jarrod Washburn, 5.8%

Joel Pineiro developed his sinking fastball to great lengths this season. Given that his fastball has never been a good pitch, one wonders why Jamie Moyer relied so much more on it in 2009, to his detriment.

A lot of late inning relief aces appear on this list too, to mixed results. Francisco Cordero‘s fastball improved in efficacy a lot in 2009. Brad Lidge‘s went into the toilet and Francisco Rodriguez’s stayed just about the same, as did Mota’s.

Obviously there is not much of an overarching theme at play here. Each pitcher has his own particular reasons for appearing in one of these two lists and many of those reasons are unique. I present the information mostly for the sake of information’s sake. Make of it what you will; I am going to go see if I can tease out any patterns based on disabled list appearances.

Title: Data Architect – Baseball Analytics
Location: Cleveland, OH

Description: The Cleveland Indians are currently scouting for a Data Architect to work in our Baseball Operations Department. This individual will report to the Director of Baseball Operations while assisting both the Baseball and Information Systems Departments.

This individual will be a technical resource to the baseball analytics department, taking on increasing responsibility to design, implement, and manage the Baseball Department’s information architecture.

Responsibilities include:

• Creating data models, developing processes for extraction, transformation, cleansing, and loading a variety of internal and external data sources;
• Creating and maintaining business rules and metadata to ensure data consistency, designing and implementing a data warehouse of baseball information.
• Other responsibilities may include, but are not limited to, statistical analysis and baseball research, application and web development, and user interface and data visualization design.

Candidates must possess:
• A Bachelor’s degree (or higher) in Computer Science or a related field, along with demonstrated work experience designing and managing data warehouses, creating OLAP cubes, and using reporting tools.
• Experience with Oracle (preferred) or another major database system including advanced knowledge of SQL and/or MDX is required.
• Experience with any of the following are highly desirable: database administration, ETL and/or BI tools, application development in .NET and/or Java.
• Proficiency in statistical analysis software packages (R, STATA, SAS, SPSS) is desirable, as is familiarity with current baseball research and analytics.

For more information or to apply, visit http://www.indians.com/jobs , Requisition Number 10-0025. Interested candidates must apply online to be considered.

——-

Title: Baseball Analyst
Location: Cleveland, OH

Description: The Cleveland Indians are currently scouting for a Baseball Analyst to work in our Baseball Operations Department. This individual will report to the Manager of Baseball Analytics while assisting both the Baseball and Information Systems Departments.

Responsibilities include:

• Performing advanced statistical analysis on large volumes of baseball-related data and implementing predictive models to aid in departmental decision making.
• Creating reports, charts, tables, graphics, and other tools to deliver information to staff in concise and readable formats;
• Advising and assisting other analysts and staff on proper selection and implementation of techniques in statistical analysis and data mining;
• Monitoring developments in statistical fields to identify new algorithms or methods applicable to baseball problems;
• Evaluating published sabermetric research to ascertain its value and applicability to internal models and processes.
• Other projects may be assigned consistent with departmental needs and candidate skills.

Candidates must possess:
• A Master’s degree (or higher) in Statistics, Operations Research, Mathematics, Computer Science, or a related quantitative field.
• This individual must possess expert knowledge of modern statistical analysis and/or machine learning techniques.
• Significant experience with R, STATA, SPSS, SAS, or similar software is required.
• Strong knowledge of baseball, particularly in sabermetrics is also required.
• Experience with a database system such as Oracle or SQL Server, and proficiency with SQL is highly desirable.
• Demonstrated ability to advise, consult, mentor, or teach others is desirable.
• The ability to communicate complex concepts at an appropriate level to colleagues possessing a wide range of backgrounds is also important.

For more information or to apply, visit http://www.indians.com/jobs , Requisition Number 10-0024. Interested candidates must apply online to be considered.

I’ll put an end to my quartet of splits-related postings by looking at one more area I find tremendously interesting – power to all fields. There are some guys in baseball who can only drive the ball when they turn on it, but they’ve figured out how to do that enough to make it work. Other guys, though, can launch a pitch to any part of the field. These guys have power to all fields. It doesn’t matter where you pitch them – if they hit it, it’s going a long way.

I browsed through the split data for guys with reputations for serious power. Here are the breakdowns of career ISO by field for three classic, big-time sluggers:

Adam Dunn:

To Left: .272
To Center: .294
To Right: .518

Mark Reynolds:

To Left: .449
To Center: .395
To Right: .267

Russell Branyan:

To Left: .377
To Center: .376
To Right: .456

Dunn and Reynolds both hit for power in any direction, but they have pretty significant gaps between their pull field and their opposite field. They are pull power guys who also are strong enough to hit one out the other way when they make contact, but they’re not your traditional “power to all fields” type of hitter. Branyan is much more like that, and is among the best examples of this description. When he makes contact, he’s going to hit the crap out of the ball more often than not.

I can’t end without giving a nod to Ryan Howard, however. The big Phillies slugger is known for his opposite field moonshots, and the numbers bear this out. Here’s Howard’s breakdown.

To Left: .701 (!!!)
To Center: .480
To Right: .327

Ryan Howard’s slugging percentage on fly balls to left field is a staggering 1.138. That’s not his OPS – that’s his SLG. 71% of all of his balls in play to left field are fly balls, and 27 percent of those leave the yard. You may remember from yesterday that the league average HR/FB for a lefty to left field was 3%. Howard’s HR/FB to left is nine times the league average.

We don’t have the historical evidence to prove it, of course, but I’d wager that Ryan Howard may just be the greatest opposite field power hitter in the history of the game.

General Manager: Tony Reagins
Farm Director: Abe Flores
Scouting Director: Eddie Bane

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

1. Hank Conger, C, Double-A
DOB: January 1988 Bats: B Throws: R
Signed: 2006 1st round – California HS
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

After failing to appear in more than 84 games in his first three pro seasons, Conger showed some durability in ’09 and got into 124 contests. Overall, he hit .295/.369/.424 in 458 at-bats. His walk rate took a big jump last year when it rose from 4.4% in ’08 to 10.5%. His strikeout rate dropped from 18.7% to 14.8%. Although his plate rates improved, Conger saw his power diminish significantly with an ISO drop from .214 to .129 but he was playing in a power-dampening park. A switch-hitter, Conger swings a slightly-more-potent bat against right-handed pitching with an OPS of .836, compared to his .763 rate against southpaws. Defensively, he’s made strides behind the dish but he’s an average-at-best defender, which should be OK considering his offensive potential.

2. Jordan Walden, RHP, Double-A
DOB: November 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 12th round – Grayson County College
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-95 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Walden’s 5.25 ERA in ’09 was pretty ugly but he was hurt by a .377 BABIP and his FIP was just 3.77. Overall, he allowed 72 hits in 60.0 innings and made just 13 starts due to a forearm strain. The injury is worrisome (because it can lead to Tommy John surgery), but he appears healthy and ready to compete in 2010. He showed a pretty good strikeout rate in ’09 at 8.55 K/9 but his control was modest at 4.35 BB/9. He had a lot of troubles against left-handed hitters and posted a walk rate of 7.83 BB/9 against them in a smaller sample size. The right-hander has top-of-the-order stuff if he can harness it.

3. Trevor Reckling, LHP, Double-A
DOB: May 1989 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 8th round – New Jersey HS
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 87-91 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Reckling cannot begin to compete with Walden’s pure stuff, but the southpaw is a better all-around pitcher even though his walk rate has risen each of the past few seasons, from 1.75 to 3.49 to 4.99. His strikeout rate took a bit of a dive in .09 but it wasn’t hopeless at 7.05 K/9. Reckling does a pretty good job of inducing ground balls (47.9%), which helped him allow just four homers in double-A (135.1 innings). His 3.77 FIP (2.93 ERA) suggests that he received some help in allowing just 118 hits (.293 BABIP). Reckling projects as a solid No. 3 starter.

4. Pete Bourjos, OF, Double-A
DOB: March 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 8th round – Arizona HS
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

Like a lot of the Angels’ top prospects, Bourjos is more solid than flashy. The outfielder doesn’t have much power (.142 ISO in ’09) but he hits for a nice average (.281) and steals some bases (32 in 44 attempts at double-A). In fact, he has the potential to steal 40-50 bases in the Majors, if so motivated. Overall on the year, he hit .281/.354/.423 in 437 at-bats while playing part of the year with ligament tear in his wrist. His walk rate was good, but not great for a top-of-the-order hitter, at 9.7% and he struck out a bit much for his modest power results at 17.6%. Defensively, he is a plus outfielder and can easily handle center field.

5. Fabio Martinez, RHP, Rookie
DOB: October 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-95 mph fastball, plus slider, change-up

The newest name on the club’s top prospect watch, Martinez has a big arm but he has just one North American season under his belt so 2010 will be big in helping him secure his reputation. The right-hander struck out 102 batters in 67.2 rookie-ball innings in ’09 but his control was off and he walked more than five batters per nine innings. His walk rate was just shy of 48% but he did a nice job of keeping the ball in the park and allowed just three homers on the season. Batters hit just .195 against him and the 20 year old should move up to low-A for 2010.

6. Trevor Bell, RHP, Majors
DOB: October 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2005 supplemental 1st round – California HS
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, curveball, slider, change-up

Trevor flew through double-A and triple-A in ’09 but he got his, uh, bell rung in the Majors. The right-hander allowed a 5.26 FIP in 20.1 MLB innings and his walk rate rose to 4.87 BB/9 as he nibbled against big leaguers. He did receive any luck, either, and posted a BABIP of .461. Beginning the year in double-A, Bell allowed just 54 hits in 68.2 innings of work while posting a walk rate of 2.62 BB/9. He also allowed just one homer and his ground-ball rate for the season was just shy of 50% in the minors. At triple-A, his strikeout rate dropped from 6.68 in double-A to 4.79 K/9. Because he has average stuff, Bell projects as a back-of-the-rotation starter or a middle reliever.

7. Mark Trumbo, 1B, Double-A
DOB: January 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2004 18th round – California HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

The 24-year-old Trumbo is loaded with raw power (as witnessed by his 32 homers in ’08) but he has yet to put it all together. The first baseman, who will reportedly see time in the outfield in 2010, hit .291/.333/.452 in 533 double-A at-bats. His walk rate has always been on the low side at it was 6.4% in ’09. His strikeout rate dipped nicely, though, to 18.8%. After posting his first .200+ ISO rate in ’08, his rate slipped to .161 in double-A while playing in a park that hurts power numbers. Even so, he still slugged 35 doubles. If Trumbo can add right field to his resume, it will significantly improve his value to the Angels.

8. Tyler Chatwood, RHP, Low-A
DOB: December 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 2nd round – California HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

After posting a walk rate of 8.53 in his pro debut (38.0 innings), Chatwood made some improvements to lower his rate to 5.11 BB/9 but he’ll continue to work to harness his stuff in 2010. Despite his struggles finding the plate, the right-hander still posted a strikeout rate of 8.20 K/9 and he allowed just 99 hits in 116.1 innings of work. He also did a nice job of limiting the homer (0.23 HR/9) despite an average ground-ball rate. Chatwood has the potential to develop into a No. 2 or 3 starter, especially if he can find a little more success against left-handed hitters (1.62 WHIP).

9. Chris Pettit, OF, Majors
DOB: August 1984 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 19th round – Loyola Marymount University
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

Pettit has always posted good numbers against southpaws in his career, but he absolutely creamed them in ’09 to the tune of a 1.117 OPS in 112 at-bats. Overall, he hit .321/.383/.482 in 371 triple-A at-bats and even received his first taste of the Majors (10 games). The outfielder isn’t a true center-fielder and doesn’t possess the power for the corners (.162 ISO) so he’s a bit of a tweener. As a result, he could end up in a platoon, or as a fourth outfielder. With a full-time commitment by the Angels, he could hit 10 homers with 15 steals.

10. Jon Bachanov, RHP, Rookie
DOB: January 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 supplemental 1st round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Mis-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-95 mph fastball, plus slider, change-up

It took the ’07 draft pick some time to get onto a mound, but he made up for lost time in ’09 after converting full-time to the bullpen. The right-hander has a good fastball-slider combination and he posted a strikeout rate or 14.00 K/9 in rookie ball. Already 21, Bachnov should jump to low-A ball in 2010 and could move quickly if he continues to show good control. He has the potential to be the Angels’ closer of the future but he’s a long way off.

Up Next: The Los Angeles Dodgers