Oliver Perez’s name has always been synonymous with top flight starter potential. In 2004, he pitched one of the best seasons in recent Pirates’ history, posting a 3.45 FIP in almost 200 innings of work. Since then, he’s racked up exactly one FIP below 4.5 and three (while working on a fourth) seasons with FIP over 5.5. Potential isn’t a static attribute and Perez is proof positive of that. Unfortunately for the Mets, they paid him as if his potential were solid and as if Perez were a safe bet to reach that upside.

Needless to say, Perez hasn’t been right since, for reasons mostly unrelated to his paychecks.

He’s always had issues with walks. Always, with the exception of that 2004 season. In his first full season in the majors he walked nearly 5.5 per nine innings. In 2005 he walked more than 6. In fact, 2007 is the only other season in which his BB/9 was lower than 4.5. Those walks were sufferable because of high strikeout totals, but Perez hasn’t even been striking out as many batters as usual this year. Not only that, but since signing that new contract, he’s walked three fewer batters than he’s struck out.

Perez looks broken. His fastball is averaging a career low 88 miles per hour. Distressing, since his previous career low was 90 MPH, set just last season. He’s not missing bats, he’s not getting outs, he is allowing ton of baserunners, but really he’s not doing anything to help the Mets. Not even getting lefties out. It seems like that knee injury is still bugging Perez and that he’s being selfish in not admitting it to the team.

No matter the parallels in highly paid starting pitchers being converted to the bullpen this season, Carlos Zambrano’s situation has nothing on this one. Unlike Zambrano, Perez doesn’t belong in the rotation, and frankly, he doesn’t belong in the majors.

It felt like it had been coming forever, but it wasn’t until Saturday that the Tampa Bay Rays finally designated Pat Burrell for assignment. Signed from the the Rays’ 2008 World Series opponent Philadelphia Phillies after that season to a two-year, $16 million dollar contract, the now-ironically nicknamed Pat “The Bat” was supposed to add offensive punch at DH. Needless to say, as R.J. discussed Friday, things haven’t worked out that way, and the American League East-leading Rays seem to be ready to go with a Hank Blalock/Willy Aybar platoon. This has all been covered. But perhaps the failure of the Burrell Era in Tampa Bay can be a little reminder, or lesson, for us.

Just over a year ago many (myself included) were lauding the Rays for their contract with a good hitter whose defensive problems would be rendered irrelevant in the AL as he filled their Cliff Floyd-sized hole at DH. The Phillies did not offer Burrell arbitration, and so the Rays didn’t have to give up draft picks.* A win-win for the Rays. Now that they’ve basically admitted that it didn’t work out, what can we make of them, and, of course, “us” (the community of internet baseball bloggers who have nothing in common)?

* In the wake of the Ryan Howard Contract Brouhaha, Philadelphia’s side of the story, involving Raul Ibanez, lots of money, draft compensation, Ibanez’s career year in 2009, and so on is important, too, but outside the realm of what I want to get at in this particular post. So far, yes, Philadelphia has done well for themselves in the Ibanez-over-Burrell sweepstakes. Still, keep in mind that the Ibanez contract isn’t done yet, his 2010 is a far cry from 2009 at this point, and there’s still his age 39 season left after this one.

First of all, the obvious: if the Rays didn’t think Burrell was going to give them anything better than what they could do with Blalock/Aybar platoon, then they had to dump him. The Rays are winning the East now, but the Yankees are right there, and the Red Sox aren’t completely vanquished yet. Whether the team is a contender like the Rays or on the other end of the win curve, holding on to a washed-up hitter who can’t play the field on the five percent chance that he might “heat up” before the deadline and bring back a C-minus prospect if Tampa Bay eats the whole salary is, well, not a good process. I hope that’s obvious to everyone at this point (ahem). Now, let’s get to “us.”

Let me be clear: this isn’t a Very Special Moment of Critical Self-Reflection. It is simply a little reminder. While it’s clear that the Rays got the short end of the stick on this one, that doesn’t mean it was necessarily the wrong decision at the time. Maybe the Rays’ scouts and statisticians did miss something. ZiPS and CHONE, two well-respected publicly-available projections systems, saw Burrell as a good hitter going into 2009, and I’m guessing the Rays had similar numbers. Sometimes, things just don’t go the way one expects. Projections are not guarantees, they are best estimates of “true talent in context” for as many players as possible. When looking at how they do for large groups, they do well. But the nature of the beast is that they will miss on a number of individuals, too. The Rays front office knows this, and this implicit in the analyses of most sabermetrically-oriented analysts, too, even if it is rarely explicitly stated. Sometimes brevity is more important. If every blogger filled up their “brief notes” with as many qualifications as I do, well… it wouldn’t be good.

This isn’t to say that the Rays front office or their internet admirers are above reproach when they or “we” turn out to be wrong about something. A miss is a miss. The point is that while the tone of some analysts may seem certain, implicit in the good work is the assumption that we are working with “densities of probabilities,” and that inevitably, one will be wrong about (many) things (not me, of course, but everyone else). The goal is to be right more often than wrong. I think it’s safe to say that despite how the Burrell contract worked out, over the last few years, the Rays have accomplished that.

Toronto’s signing of Kevin Gregg this offseason to a one-year deal with a club option was a bit puzzling, given that a) he’s a reliever, and b) rebuilding teams generally shouldn’t spend money of veteran relievers. Moreover, the Blue Jays already had at least two pretty good relievers in Jason Frasor and Scott Downs, as well as players like Josh Roenicke (who came over as part of the Scott Rolen trade) waiting in the minors. But with a little thought, it became clear that not only was the Gregg contract not all that onerous, but that Frasor and Downs, as free agents after 2010, would both be good trade chips, and that Gregg, while perhaps not spectacular, could help hold down the fort.

He has done a bit more than that so far, moving into the closer’s role not long after the season started and handling the highest-leverage situations on the team (2.05 game LI). Gregg’s 2.12 ERA is not deceiving. He has a 2.09 FIP, and it’s not build on a house of fly ball luck, either, as his xFIP is 2.37. His 1.70 tERA is aided by a 10.5% line drive rate that is probably unsustainable, but clearly, Gregg has had a authentically good run so far this season.

Gregg hasn’t had a full-season xFIP under 4 since 2004, so we should look a bit closer. So far this year, Gregg is getting more strikeouts and avoiding walks better than ever before, which are obviously Good Things. He’s not getting lucky against lefties, either, as Gregg actually has a reverse split for his career — a career xFIP versus righties is 4.49, and 3.92 versus lefties, and that’s continued in 2010 with a 3.14 versus righties and a 1.26 versus lefties. What really stands out for Gregg in 2010 is his ground ball rate. Prior to this season, Gregg fluctuated between about average and greater-than-average groundball rates, but so far in 2010 ground balls have been a major key to to his success — 55% of balls in play have been on the ground. As Ric Flair might ask, “what’s causin’ all this?”

On this blog (and this podcasts) and elsewhere, there has been on-and-off talk of the cutter being a “miracle pitch” that more pitchers should add to their arsenal. Through 2009, BIS pitch types record Gregg has throwing almost no cutters. Guess what? In 2010, about 30% of his pitches have been identified as cutters. I haven’t read anything about Gregg talking about adding a cutter, and I’ll leave it up to BIS and the Pitch F/X experts to decipher, but whatever is going on, it is likely connected with Gregg’s better ground ball rate this season.

Let me emphasize for the nth time that all player performance is subject to random variation that can exaggerate changes over a short periods of time. This has to be keep in mind with relief pitchers in particular, given that even their full-season sample is so much smaller than everyone else’s. That being said, if Gregg has discovered something new that helps him keep the ball on the ground, he could not only be an good stopgap for the Jays when they trade their other veteran relievers, but he could become a valuable trade chip for a rebuilding Toronto club himself.

On MLB Trade Rumors today, Howard Megdal looks at possible destinations for Andruw Jones. Signed for jut $500K this winter, Jones has easily been the best free agent bargain. He leads all AL outfielders with a .427 wOBA, and has already produced over 1 WAR. If, as Megdal suggests, the White Sox will seek to cash in their Jones pick for some prospects, they might want to act quickly. We’ve seen this type of production from Andruw before, only to see it decline later in the season.

Although he produced above-average numbers in a general sense, Jones was a disappointment for Texas last season. No, a .338 wOBA isn’t bad, at least for most players. Jones, however, spent most of his time at DH. In only 17 games and 148.2 innings did he play the outfield. He has already topped those marks this year, which makes his production seem even better. The season is still young, though, and Jones has just 111 PA. There is still time for his production to fall.

Why so pessimistic? Because at this exact point last season, 111 PA, Andruw’s production ceased. For those first 111 PA he hit .278/.405/.544, which amounts to a wOBA, .424, that is nearly identical to his mark this year. Yet from his 112th PA through his 331st, he produced very little. His triple slash sat at .183/.282/.419, a .320 wOBA. His only saving grace was power, as he hit 12 home runs and produced a .236 ISO during that span. Other than that, though, he showed few redeeming qualities.

While we can’t say for certain that Andruw’s production for the rest of the season will mimic his efforts from last year, it’s also probably not a good idea to place any bets on it. He’s surely talented, as he showed during his years, minus 2007, with Atlanta. Even though he’s been in the league 15 seasons, he’s still just 33 years old. He could certainly continue producing throughout 2010, whether it be for the White Sox or a contending team.

Yet even if he avoids the drop-off he experienced last year, there’s almost no chance he continues at his current pace. Even during his prime years he never produced a .400 wOBA. His peak year came in 2000, when he produced a .390 mark. He came close, too, in 2005, when he hit 51 home runs and produced a .382 wOBA. He might be able to help a contending team, but it won’t be with the numbers he’s producing now.

As we enter play on Friday, the entire National League is only separated by nine games – the difference between NL leading San Diego at 22-12 and NL trailing Houston at 13-21. The entire NL Wild card race is occurring within a 6.5 game spread, as Washington currently leads the race at 20-15. The American League, on the other hand, has already started to separate, as Tampa Bay leads Baltimore by 13.5 games and only four other potential Wild Card teams are within eight games of leading New York.

We’ve also seen some surprises emerging in the National League. Washington, as mentioned above, is leading the Wild Card race despite a pitching staff without a single pitcher projected as above average. Cincinnati is four games over .500 despite most projection systems pegging them at .500 or below. San Diego and San Francisco are both surprising in an NL West which was handed to either Los Angeles or Colorado by most projection systems and analysts.

Naturally, that means that some teams projected to do big things in this year’s National League are struggling out of the gates. CHONE projected Atlanta to win the NL East on the strength of an above average lineup at every position and a starting rotation with four pitchers projected as average or better, and that’s assuming Jason Heyward as a below average player. The Braves now sit at 16-18, 3.5 games out of the Wild Card and 4.5 games out of the NL East race. Colorado, a team with perhaps the most talented position players in the National League, has an identical record and is 6 games back in the NL West.

Of course, some players have emerged since the beginning of the season and others have been lost to injuries or ineffectiveness. What we project for teams going forward obviously won’t be identical to what we projected at the beginning of the season. However, with only roughly 35 games in the books for each team, our projections for the rest of the season have to remain close to those for the regular season. Teams like San Diego, San Francisco, and Cincinnati that have outperformed expectations so far will likely revert towards – but not completely – their original projections for the season. Similarly, Colorado, Los Angeles, and Atlanta will likely begin performing better.

The current gaps between these teams, however, mean that we can expect some extremely close division and wild card races as the season continues. Right now, the playoff spot that appears to be locked up is that of the St. Louis Cardinals, who are just miles in front of the rest of the NL Central in terms of talent. The Philadelphia Phillies look to be in good shape as well, as they have built a large gap between themselves and the similarly talented Atlanta Braves, and the talent gap between Philadelphia and the Washington Nationals is too large for Washington to handle.

PECOTA’s playoff odds have four of five teams in the NL West with at least a 14% chance at the division title and none with a greater than 40% chance. Even tighter is the projected Wild Card race, as no team has a more than 12% odds at winning. Four teams are between 10% and 12% and another six are between 6% and 10%. The odds released at the beginning of May at Beyond the Boxscore showed similar results.

For fans of intrigue and drama, the Senior Circuit will be the league to watch this season. Given how the first 35 games have played out, almost the whole league has something to play for right now, and we are almost guaranteed that one race will be decided in the last few weeks of the season.

Yesterday, I introduced to the wide readership a line of inquiry down which the very famous Jonah Keri had gotten me started. The line of inquiry concerns those bloggers who, despite almost no promise of financial compensation or notoriety, have persisted in their craft.

The question I posed — after having considered Will Leitch’s suggestion from his Costas Now episode that blogging is a really hard work — the question I posed goes like this:

Why do it? If, as Leitch suggests, it’s hard work, why do it? If, as I can tell you personally, it provides very little in the way of fame and/or cash money, why do it?

I’ve posed this same series of questions — or at least ones very similar to them — to some of the interweb’s more thoughtful baseball writers. Over the next week-plus, I’ll be sharing their responses in these electronic pages.

What follows is the product of a lightly edited email correspondence with Bryan Smith. In addition to being a bona fide prospect maven, Smith is also a real-live thoughtful person. And if you haven’t read it, his Staring Down the Sinkerballers series is like woah.

Smith: I started blogging when I was 15 or so, almost eight years ago now. So, I think I have sort of run the gamut as far as “base motivations” are concerned. Originally, and for probably the first 4-5 years, I think the predominant reason was a practical one — I thought that blogging would help me learn about baseball (I didn’t know sabermetrics at all, then), and in turn, would help my teenage dream to work inside the game.

In college, that began to change a little bit, particularly around when I started Baseball Analysts with Rich. I began to find that the writing process was as fun as the baseball element — we had a guest section called the Designated Hitter and got some great writers to pen some great, inspiring pieces. Being on the Internet, and writing so often, led me to the Journalism/English major that I chose. I think I continued through college for another practical reason: money. I didn’t have to wait tables or haul boxes or anything, my job was to write an article 1-2 times a week that ten thousand people read. Which leads to another reason: self-importance. I loved creative non-fiction writing more than anything, but baseball was the outlet that allowed the biggest audience and the only money.

Read the rest of this entry »

[Author’s added note, May 14, ~10:20 A.M. EST: You really should check out Posnanski’s post that really lays out Hillman’s clubhouse issues that I hinted at below. Do so if for no other reason that to find out that by the end of his first season, “the players were rather openly comparing Trey Hillman to Michael from “The Office.” Hmm… I wonder where they got that idea?]

The first manager of the 2010 season has been “let go”: Thursday afternoon, immediately after Zack Greinke’s first super-duper meaningful pitcher win of the season, the Kansas City Royals announced the firing of manager Trey Hillman. I’m not an “insider,” so I won’t get into analyzing the specific politics of the organization. That sort of stuff will hopefully come from the almost-always outstanding work of Joe Posnanski, Rany Jazayerli, Sam Mellinger, and others.

It is tempting to run through a sampling of Hillman’s “greatest hits.” (Who can forget Kyle Farnsworth pitching to Jim Thome on Opening Day 2009?) We’ll always remember Hillman’s response to the person who asked why left-handed reliever Ron Mahay wasn’t brought in to face Thome : “Mahay isn’t a lefty specialist.” Hillman handled the bullpen poorly, made bizarre playing time decisions, had an amazingly poor grasp of the platoon, and allegedly lost the clubhouse in his very first Spring Training with the club. I personally soured on Hillman fairly quickly. I didn’t appreciate the condescending tone Hillman tended to take when he felt cornered, and it was clear that part of the problem was his personality and attitude (he didn’t have time to “educate” us).

Nevertheless, even when someone has lost their job deservedly, it is difficult to take much joy in it. Hillman clearly loves the sport, and went to great lengths to be “in baseball” any way he could — working his way through the Yankees’ minor league system as as manager, leading the Nippon Ham Fighters to Pacific League championships in 2006 and 2007, and finally getting a shot at the American major leagues with the Royals in 2008. This is what happens to managers who preside over terrible teams. I would be shocked if Trey Hillman ever managed in the American major leagues again, and while that’s an accurate reflection of his abilities, it is sad to see that part of his dream end. Like just about every defeated political candidate I’ve ever heard, he never sounded better than during his ‘concession speech.’ All the best to Trey Hillman in his future endeavors. I’m just glad he got to stay long enough to see Jason Kendall’s emotional 250th hit-by-pitch.

The least surprising post-firing announcement is that Hillman’s replacement, at least on an interim basis, is former Brewers skipper Ned Yost. You aren’t going to believe this, but Yost was a coach for the Atlanta Braves at the same time Dayton Moore was working there. Some blame Yost for the Brewers’ pennant race problems during the last part of his Milwaukee tenure, but it is safe to say Yost probably won’t have to deal with that situation anytime soon with Kansas City. The truth is that it just doesn’t matter all that much, from a pure baseball perspective. You’ve read the sabermetric “managers don’t matter all that much” thing before: yes, managers often make bad strategic decisions, and sometimes they blow up in their faces, as in the Farnsworth/Thome example above. But over time… sometimes you pinch-run Tony Pena, Jr. for your designated hitter Billy Butler in a close game, Pena gets stranded, then, in extra innings, one of the worst hitters in the history of the major leagues, playing DH, gets the game-winning hit. Within a few games, random variation limits the amount of damage (or good) a manager can do. Yes, Hillman played Jose Guillen too much, but he’s not the person who gave an obviously declining outfielder in his early thirties a guaranteed $36 million dollar contract, either.

Back to the matter at hand. If you’re reading this, you probably know how this usually plays out. A new GM (Dayton Moore) comes in, quickly gets rid of the current manager (Cf. Buddy Bell) and brings in “his guy” (Trey Hillman). If after two or three seasons, if the team is still losing, the manager gets canned, and the GM’s leash gets shorter. Dayton Moore was quite emotional during Thursday’s presser, but it would be cynical to suggest that it was for any reason other than his personal relationship with Trey Hillman. Still, this is a clear sign (especially if one thinks the order to make a change came from ownership) that patience with the Royals’ lack of progress at the major league level is running thin. Pre-Moore acquisition Alex Gordon has been successfully neutered, but the most valuable on the team are still pre-Moore draftees Zack Greinke and Billy Butler. Hillman was Moore’s last line of defense. Some may say that Moore needs time to “see the end of what he started” in the minor leagues. Did anyone say that Allard Baird should be allowed to see what became of Greinke, Butler, and Gordon?

Trey Hillman (about whom Moore once said had a chance to be “one of the best baseball men of his generation”) needed to go, if for no other reason than showing that there is some level of “accountability” within the organization. The signals indicate that ownership isn’t going to wait around indefinitely on Dayton Moore, either. Again, we’ve seen this movie: new general manager comes in, honeymoon period (he isn’t the old guy!), seems to have a plan (I bet no one has ever thought of building a “farm system” before!), hires new manager (new ideas from Japan!), spends lots of money of free agents… then, when/if things go south, one of the last lines of defense is that the GM’s managerial hire gets fired. The typical next step isn’t to fire the new manager: after the first hire-and-fire, it’s usually the GM’s turn.

Now that is a process worth trusting.

The Phillies have been accused of stealing signs, but did they do anything wrong? Sign-stealing isn’t exactly against the rules, but it isn’t exactly not. After reviewing the telecast of Monday night’s Rockies-Phillies game, during which Philly bullpen coach Mick Billmeyer was seen watching Rockies catcher Miguel Olivo through binoculars, Major League Baseball officially warned the Phillies not to cheat — while admitting, “We found the evidence inconclusive on what was being done.”

The rule against sign-stealing is generally more of an unwritten one. There’s nothing about it the Official Rule Book — in fact, there are no rules regarding signs at all. There was a 1961 rule banning sign stealing by means of a “mechanical device,” but no amendment was put in the modern rulebook. And then there’s a passage in a memo sent in 2000 by Sandy Alderson, then MLB’s executive VP of Baseball Operations:

Please be reminded that the use of electronic equipment during a game is restricted. No club shall use electronic equipment, including walkie-talkies and cellular telephones, to communicate to or with any on-field personnel, including those, in the dugout, bullpen, field and–during the game–the clubhouse. Such equipment may not be used for the purpose of stealing signs or conveying information designed to give a club an advantage.

Binoculars, clearly, aren’t forbidden.

So it’s more of a judgment call. Rob Neyer offers a harsh, but common-sense take: “Officially, it’s cheating if ‘electronic devices’ are used. I’ll take it one step farther, though. I say anything beyond the naked eye is cheating.” Charlie Manuel didn’t help matters with his denial: ““We were not trying to steal signs. Would we try to steal somebody’s signs? Yeah, if we can. But we don’t do that.”

Because sign stealing is prohibited more by gentleman’s agreement than by law, then it’s important to ask: does it work? A decade ago, Neyer examined one of the most famous sign stealing rings of all, during the 1951 New York Giants’ amazing 52-18 race to the World Series. An electrician named Abraham Chadwick installed a buzzer system in the Giants’ clubhouse; another Giant stationed himself out in the spacious Polo Grounds outfield with a powerful telescope and signaled each pitch as it was called.

However, looking at Retrosheet data, Neyer notices something remarkable: “The Giants actually hit worse at the Polo Grounds after they started cheating.” Half the team didn’t even want to know what pitch was coming. The whole team kept the secret, dutifully, for 50 years, but while it’s undeniable that they cheated — they kept it a secret, which means they had a sense it was wrong, and then finally admitted it — it’s awfully questionable whether it helped.

There’s certainly a major placebo effect to cheating. It makes the cheater feel confident and the cheated feel paranoid. According to the recent book The Baseball Codes, in 2005, Bob Wickman intentionally balked a runner to third because he feared that the guy was stealing his signs from second. So the fear of cheating — or thrill of not getting caught cheating — may be more tangible than its effect.

What should be done, then? Should the Phillies be punished? Or is the outrage misguided? My answers may seem contradictory: no and no. But baseball’s attitude towards cheating is deeply contradictory. The “if you ain’t cheatin’ you ain’t tryin'” mentality coexists with the righteous indignation of people who feel the game must be played “the right way.” Hence, the universal condemnation of steroids stands in stark contrast to the shrugs and muted praise for A.J. Pierzynski’s breaking up a perfect game by pretending he was beaned pretending to be beaned during a no-hitter. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Jeff Schultz compared the Phillies’ binoculars to the 1951 Giants’ elaborate operation, writing, “I say: Give that spy a raise.”

The Phillies shouldn’t be punished, because they haven’t violated the letter of any law. But they’ve certainly violated the spirit, as Neyer says. They’re not the first, and won’t be the last, to steal signs. Still, the next time they come to your town, feel free to boo.

The Rangers crushed the Athletics last night, 10-1, to break a tie atop the AL West. We’re just 20 percent through the season, and plenty can change as the weather gets warmer. The Angels probably won’t play .417 ball for the rest of the season, just like the Mariners, despite a shaky offense, probably won’t finish the season 64-98. Their slow starts have set them back considerably, though. That becomes magnified when we look at the Rangers, a team that has done an excellent job of making minor adjustments.

Catcher

The Rangers planned to start the season with Taylor Teagarden and Jarrod Saltalamacchia splitting time behind the plate, but an early injury to Salty, among other issues, have kept him at AAA so far. He’s killing it there, and we’ll get to him in a moment. That opened an opportunity for Teagarden, but he did not seize it. Even though his major league season has consisted of just 33 PA, it was clear during that time that something just isn’t working. Teagarden recorded just one hit and four walks in that span while striking out 17 times. He was demoted to AAA, where he, no joke, has a .205 OPS. He hasn’t played since Saturday, and was recently sent to AA so he can get actual playing time.

The Rangers have responded by introducing a new catching tandem, Matt Treanor and Max Ramirez. Treanor is no great shakes, a 34-year-old who found himself as the best among poor options. His .278 wOBA would look bad under most circumstances, but considering the numbers Teagarden posted the Rangers will take it at this point. Ramirez represents the more intriguing option, though he has only played in five games since his recall in late April. Marc Hulet ranked him the 10th best Rangers prospect, a high accolade given the strength of their system. He’s gotten on base in half of his 16 PA, and while that’s clearly not sustainable it is a nice break from the disappointing performances Texas has received from its other catching prospects.

While the makeshift tandem Texas has employed during the next few weeks represents a quality adjustment to early season letdowns, they have some more work to do here. Their catchers currently rank 11th in the AL with a .271 wOBA. Saltalamacchia factors prominently into the Rangers’ catching future. He’s destroying AAA, but as Joey from Baseball Time in Arlington notes, he’s still having trouble throwing the ball…back to the pitcher. His .343/.400/.552 line makes him a prime candidate for promotion, but if he’s pulling a Rube Baker behind the plate, well, let’s just say I’m not sure a Frederick’s of Hollywood catalog will necessarily get him back on track.

First base

Chris Davis has shown plenty of promise. Since his professional debut in 2006 he has forced a promotion at every level. He has never posted a wOBA of below .383 at any minor league level, and in 2008 so consummately dominated AA and AAA that the Rangers had little choice but to promote him. In 317 major league PA that year he posted a .371 wOBA thanks to a hefty .264 ISO, though a lot had to do with his .351 BABIP, a rate he probably couldn’t sustain in the majors.

Since then, though, his strikeouts have become an issue. He struck out in 29.8 percent of his 2008 PA, but saw that number skyrocket to 38.4 percent last year. In his 53 PA this season he has struck out 35.4 percent of the time. Those numbers would look a lot better if his wOBA crossed even the .320 mark, but it did not. After an 0 for 3 with two strikeout performance on April 22, the Rangers swapped him for highly regarded prospect Justin Smoak.

Despite a poor batting average, just .194, Smoak has outproduced Davis so far. His walk rate sits at an encouraging 16 percent, and seven of his 12 hits have gone for extra bases. His line drive rate, 25 percent, doesn’t quite match up with his .167 BABIP, and I’m sure we’ll see a correction on that front soon enough. It won’t be long, I don’t think, until the Rangers seek trade partners for Davis.

Starting pitcher

In some ways, the Rangers got a bit lucky. Surely they signed Colby Lewis with the expectation that he’d be a solid middle of the rotation arm, but so far he’s pitched like someone heading a staff. His 3.15 ERA matches up well with his 3.33 FIP and 3.71 xFIP. C.J. Wilson has been even more impressive, a 1.51 ERA with a 3.13 FIP. He’s allowed no home runs so far, but there’s a reason for that. Opposing hitters have put more than half of their balls in play on the ground.

With Rich Harden rounding into form during his last few starts, the Rangers have just a couple of rotation disappointments. First is Scott Feldman, who remains in the rotation. A few more walks, a few more homers, and a few more fly balls have been the biggest difference between his 2009 campaign and the opening to the 2010 season. Both his FIP and xFIP sit below his ERA, so maybe he’ll come around. But I doubt he’ll be much more than a fourth starter. Which is fine for a staff with the Rangers potential.

The other disappointment comes from Matt Harrison, who recently hit the DL. His 5.29 ERA matches up decently with his 5.59 FIP, though sits a bit above his 4.82 xFIP. His absence might cost him a rotation spot, as the Rangers have replaced him with Derek Holland. After a rough initial run through the majors last season, Holland simply dominated AAA in his six starts. He was the obvious replacement for Harrison and answered the bell, pitching six shutout innings last night, striking out seven (to one walk) and inducing eight ground balls. If Holland is poised to fulfill his potential this year, the Rangers will have quite a formidable staff.

Bullpen

The Rangers currently boast one of the better bullpens in the league, so there hasn’t been too large a need for an adjustment. They took care of one early, though, in demoting Frank Francisco from the closer role in favor of Neftali Feliz. Feliz hasn’t been perfect in the role, but Francisco suffered quite a few meltdowns earlier in the year. The change, as we predicted on FanGraphs Audio, happened fairly early. It appears to have been the right one, the question of Feliz as a starter or reliever notwithstanding.

Continued adjustments?

The Rangers have done a good job of quickly addressing problem areas. In a way, the players forced the issue. Teagarden and Davis hit so poorly that the Rangers had little choice but to demote them. Holland likely wouldn’t have seen the majors just yet if not for Harrison’s injury, though a few more poor starts might caused the Rangers to act.

Right now, things seem to be going well enough. Since they snapped a six-game losing streak they’re 14-6 and have outscored opponents 105-82. They could still use better production out of the catcher spot, which could come from Saltalamacchia once he works out his throwing issues. With the makings of a strong rotation, solid bullpen, and an above average lineup the Rangers could start to run away with the AL West. If they do, it will largely because of the on the fly adjustments they’ve made early in the season.

Greetings Fangraphians. I have awakened from my six-week Fangraphs slumber to bring you… analysis of Junichi Tazawa’s surgery.

Last month, the Red Sox learned that Tommy John surgery would knock their #3 prospect out of commission for the next 12 months or so. Let’s take a look back at how they got here.

Tazawa signed with Boston in November 2008, after a four-year career with Shin-Nihon Oil Eneos of Japan’s Industrial Leagues. The Industrial Leagues are comprised of amateur teams fielded by Japan’s corporations, such as Toyota and Yamaha. I’m sure someone will ask how the Industrial League compares to the American minors in terms of talent, but to me it’s an apples and oranges situation in that the Industrial Leagues have a mix of NPB draft prospect talent, and guys with corporate jobs who happen to play baseball. That said, I’d say the better Industrial League teams probably grade somewhere around Indy Leauge ball.

I was probably more impressed than most to see Tazawa reach the Bigs last season. Based on the observation that it usually takes younger Industrial League pitchers at least a year or two of pro seasoning before they begin to perform at the top level in Japan, I expected Tazawa to hit a wall at some point his first pro season. Here’s a quote from an article I wrote last February:

[…] In America, he will have to adjust to the reality that even in 2A there will be guys capable of hitting his best stuff. This will challenge him to improve on his approach on the mound and preparation for the game.

It turned out that 2A wasn’t a huge challenge for Tazawa, and he did well in two 3A starts before finding the wall I envisioned at the MLB level. The Industrial Leauges are a long way from the pennant race in AL East, and that got that far in 10 months was quite an achievement.

So hindsight being 20/20, was he rushed?

In the post I referenced above, I also made a note about the mileage on Tazawa’s arm coming into the Red Sox contract:

Looking at last year’s Intercity Championship, which Tazawa’s Eneos won, Tazawa started on Sept 1, Sept 4, pitched relief on Sept 6, started again on Sept 8, and finally closed out the tourney with two innings on Sept 9. That was a total of 28.1 innings in nine days, with no more than three days rest in between apparances. I don’t have pitch count data, but I recall reading that he had gotten around 150 in one game last year* (not sure if it was this tournament or another one). And he did wear out down the stretch — in his last appearance he didn’t allow any runs, but was nicked for 7 hits in 2 innings.The upside here is that the Red Sox certainly won’t put this kind of strain on Tazawa’s arm. He’ll be put under pitch counts and watched carefully. The adjustment he’ll have to make is pitching on a regular, routine basis, instead of the short, extreme bursts of activity with long breaks in between.

* In researching today’s post, I found an article that said he had thrown 158 pitches in the September 4, 2008 game.

One thing I didn’t foresee was that Boston have him pitch from the windup. Tazawa always worked from the stretch in Japan, probably because he spent most of his Industrial League career as a reliever. His workload also increased from 103 Industrial League innings to 134.2 across three levels in the States.

So was he rushed? I have the sense that injury problems were to some extent inevitable, but yeah, it does feel like the Red Sox were aggressive with him.