Between 2005 and 2008, Grady Sizemore was, by our WAR valuation system, the fourth best position player and one of just four worth over 20 wins. Last year he had an injury-shortened, down year — though was still worth almost two wins — so this year he was looking to reestablish himself as one of the game’s elite players; at this point, that has not happened.

His wOBA sits at a disappointing 0.264. In 119 PAs he has yet to hit a home run. His strikeout rate is at an all-time high, while his walk rate and ISO at all-time lows. The plate discipline issues problems seem particularly troubling. Over his career Sizemore has had great plate discipline numbers, but this year Sizemore is swinging at 32% of the pitches he sees out of the zone. His career average is 19%, and his previous high is just 20%. On the other hand, he is swinging at fewer pitches in the strike zone, just 59% compared to a career average of 65% and a previous low of 63%. So it is not that he is just swinging more at all pitches, rather he is swinging at more pitches he shouldn’t and at fewer pitches he should. That is what leads to his career-high K rate and career-low BB rate, and probably plays a role in his power decline.

Using the pitchf/x data I looked at his swing rate broken up into bins by pitch location. Then I looked at the change in swing rate for each location between this year compared to 2007-2009 (the years covered by the pitchf/x data). Red locations have a higher swing rate in 2010, while blue a lower swing rate in 2010. The color intensity represents the magnitude of the difference.

Since he has only seen 470 pitches this year the data are a little noisy, but you can see a clear trend. Locations outside the zone have a higher swing rate, particularly on inside pitches, while those in the zone, particularly down-and-away, have a lower swing rate. So the pitchf/x data support the BIS plate discipline numbers, and they are troubling for Sizemore and the Indians.

Yesterday, we took a look at the top rookie performers in the American League, led by Detroit’s Austin Jackson. Today, we’re breaking down the key first year players in the National League through the first six weeks of the 2010 MLB season. It’s a pretty impressive list already, and we still haven’t seen the likes of Washington’s Stephen Strasburg or Florida’s Mike Stanton.

Rookies were considered based on a minimum of 50 plate appearances, four starts, or 10 relief appearances. Last year’s NL Rookie of the Year award went to Florida’s Chris Coghlan, followed by J.A. Happ (Philadelphia) and Tommy Hanson (Atlanta).

Tyler Colvin | OF | Chicago: The former No. 1 draft pick is having a nice debut despite being a surprise addition to the ’10 club. Colvin has shown more patience in the Majors (10.2 BB%) than in the minors, which has helped his overall numbers. He currently has a triple-slash line of .275/.345/.608 and an ISO rate of .333, which has been helped by eight extra base hits out of his 14 total base knocks. The strikeout rate is a worrisome at 29.4 K%.

Ike Davis | 1B | New York: Davis is in the Majors a lot sooner than a lot of people expect but he’s held his own with a .415 wOBA in 18 games. Overall, he has a triple-slash line of .316/.437/.544. Davis has shown a willingness to take a walk with a rate of 18.3 BB%. He’s also done his fair share of swinging and missing with a strikeout rate of 29.8%. The line-drive rate of 31.7% is pretty darn impressive for young Ike.

Ian Desmond | SS | Washington: Desmond is holding his own so far this season as the Nationals’ starting shortstop. He has a triple-slash line of .264/.323/.462, and his wOBA sits at .347. Along with three homers, the shortstop has added three stolen bases. Desmond’s strikeout rate is high (23.1 K%) for someone with modest power. He’s been solid so far with the glove.

Alcides Escobar | SS | Milwaukee: Escobar is an interesting rookie. He’s basically known for hitting for a hollow batting average with good speed and defense. So far in 2010, Escobar has a .222 average, a career-high .141 ISO rate, just one steal attempt in 27 games, and a modest defensive showing. After nabbing 46 bags in ’09, it’s borderline criminal that the young infielder isn’t utilizing his speed better.

David Freese | 3B | St. Louis: I won’t go too in-depth on Freese here, as I looked at him last week. Freese is currently hitting .320/.393/.476 with a .387 wOBA in 29 games. His power output has been modest for the hot corner (.155 ISO) but he has a history of posting strong batting averages in the minors.

Jason Heyward | RF | Atlanta: Heyward had his ups and his downs during the first month of the season, which is to be expected for a 20-year-old prospect making his MLB debut. What’s impressive is how quickly he’s made adjustments. Heyward currently has a .436 wOBA and his triple-slash line is up to .291/.410/.616 with eight homers (.326 ISO) in 105 at-bats. He does have some work to do defensively.

Tommy Manzella | SS | Houston: Manzella was holding his own for a little while in April but his triple-slash line has dipped to just .195/.235/.260 in 83 at-bats. His approach at the plate is clearly an issue, as he has a walk rate of just 2.4% and his strikeout rate has skyrocketed to 32.5%, which is far too high for a player with a .065 ISO rate. On the plus side, he’s played OK defense.

Gaby Sanchez | 1B | Florida: Sanchez, 26, is quietly going about his rookie season. The first baseman has a solid triple-slash line of .272/.368/.424 in 106 at-bats. His wOBA sits at .352. Sanchez has done a solid job of getting on base with a walk rate of 12.3%, which is right up there with his minor league numbers. He’s done OK with the strikeout rate at 20.7%, but his power is below average for a first baseman, so it would be better off around the 15% range.

Jaime Garcia | LHP | St. Louis: Garcia is another player that was highlighted recently. The lefty mixes four pitches well (fastball, cutter, curve, change) and he currently has positive pitch values on all four of his offerings. Along with his 89-91 mph fastball velocity, Garcia gets excellent sink on his heater and he currently has a ground-ball rate of 62%, which is second in the Majors to Atlanta’s Tim Hudson. He needs to make sure that he continues to keep his control in check.

Mike Leake | RHP | Cincinnati: Leake cannot boast a +60% ground-ball rate like Garcia, but his is still above average at 56.0%. The right-hander has continued to improve as the season has gone on. Currently, he’s given up just 32 hits in 40.2 innings of work and his xFIP sits at 4.11. He’s done a nice job of tossing a five-pitch mix at the National League hitters, which helps make up for his average fastball velocity.

Jenrry Mejia | RHP | New York: I cannot adequately express how disappointing it is to see Mejia being misused in New York. The 20-year-old right-hander has appeared in 15 games out of the bullpen and currently has a 4.61 BB/9 rate, as well as a strikeout rate of just 5.93 K/9. He’s shown a respectable fastball-slider combo, but his change-up (along with his overall control) is not getting any better by pitching a total of 13.2 innings in just under six weeks.

Jon Niese | LHP | New York: Niese has not received a ton of attention from traditional rookie watchers, likely due to his one win in six games. We all know there is much more to a pitcher’s game than wins (Less just ban the stat for individuals). The lefty has a solid strikeout rate at 7.46 K/9 and his control has improved significantly (3.09 BB/9) over his ’09 debut. Niese’s ground-ball rate is just shy of 50%. The base knock has been an issue for him as he’s allowed 46 hits in 35.0 innings.

The Next Big Call-up: Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington
2010 First Half Star: Jason Heyward, RF, Atlanta
2010 Second Half Star: Jason Heyward, RF, Atlanta
2010 Overall NL ROY: Jason Heyward, RF, Atlanta

There are few, if any, conclusions we can draw based on a player’s first 50 major league plate appearances. In that sample, which covers 12 or 13 games, anything can happen. A player might hit with an inordinate number of men on base. He might face a string of weak pitchers. He might play two series against the Royals. Yet, after watching a handful of Brennan Boesch’s 50 major league PA, including all four last night, I’m convinced of one thing. The man does not think it is his duty to take pitches.

The Tigers drafted Boesch with the 82nd pick of the 2006 draft. He had impressed at the University of California as a sophomore, hitting .355/.436/.567. His production dipped a bit in his junior year, but his star was still bright enough to warrant a third round selection. The Tigers signed him and them placed him in the New York-Penn League, where he hit .291/.344/.435 in 292 PA. He struggled through the next two seasons before finding his power strike at AA in 2009, slugging over .500 for the first time as a professional.

Something had changed for Boesch when he turned pro. In college he drew 53 walks in 574 PA, a 9.2% walk rate. That dropped immediately upon his pro debut. In 317 PA — more than he had accumulated during any of his college seasons — he walked 6.6 percent of the time. That number dropped even further during his first full season, to 4.2 percent. For his minor league career he walked 117 times in 1957 PA, 6 percent.

That hasn’t changed in the majors, where he’s walked just twice in his 50 PA, one of them intentional. So far Boesch has swung at 50 percent of pitches outside the strike zone. That is nearly double the league average rate. He swings at plenty of pitches in general, 66.2 percent, more than 20 percentage points above league average. It’s no wonder, then, that his swinging strike rate also ranks above league average.

Yet that hasn’t been all bad for Boesch so far. He has struck out only six times in those 50 PA, which amounts to a below average strikeout rate. Low strikeout and walk rates mean he’s putting the ball in play often. To his advantage, 35 percent of his balls in play have dropped for hits, which has propped up his .340 BA. Last year at AA Boesch hit .275, but had an insane BABIP of .390. He struck out a ton, though, 127 times in 527 AB, a 24.1 percent rate.

I’m not sure what to make of all this. It is, after all, just 50 PA, and only two of those have come against left-handed pitching (another peril of short samples). It is clear, though, that Boesch wants to swing the bat. He won’t find much success if he continues chasing so many pitches out of the zone, but as he settles into the league that rate should drop significantly. From the little I’ve seen of him, he seems like the kind of player who can survive on contact skills alone.

Radar guns are not fans of the Washington Nationals’ makeshift pitching rotation. As a unit, they have an average velocity of 87.9 MPH. Big league lineups know that when they are facing Washington, it’s soft-tosser after soft-tosser after soft-tosser. While there is much more to pitching then just rearing back and throwing fastballs in the upper-nineties, there is a correlation between velocity and striking batters out. So it shouldn’t come as a shock to see the Nationals’ staff sitting at a dangerously low strikeout rate of just 4.67 K/9. When you’re missing this few bats, you’re relying on your defense to make a lot of outs. And for the Nationals, that can be a bit of adventure at times when you’re fielding Adam Dunn at any position.

The Head Master of the slow fastball is Livan Hernandez, whose heater comes in at a breakneck speed of 84.1 MPH. More than a handful of pitchers throw change-ups faster than that, but it’s Livan’s calling card. Livan has a magical ERA of 1.04 right now despite a K/BB ratio of 2.91:2.91. His 5.18 xFIP tells us the cold, hard truth of about Livan, as if we didn’t know it already.

Lefty Scott Olsen is the only one out of the bunch with an above-average strikeout rate at 8.36 K/9. His slider has been a put away pitch for him so far in the season, and he has a decent change-up to keep opposite handed batters off-balance. While he’s off to a great start, we’re still talking about Scott Olsen, and a pitcher that’s not far removed from labrum surgery, so I’d expect some regression.

Craig Stammen throws the ball harder than any of his other rotation mates, with an average fastball velocity of 90.4. Whoa, there. He does however have some good control working in his favor. He’s walking only 1.13 batters per nine, and while that low rate won’t stay that good, he has had a good walk rates throughout his minor league career.

John Lannan had an ERA of 3.88 last year despite a K/9 rate of …3.88. That just doesn’t even seem possible, unless we’re talking about a different generation of pitchers. Lannan is predictably getting rocked by batters so far this season (45 hits in 32.2 innings). He’s also hurting himself by walking 4.96 batters per nine.

Jordan Zimmermann, Ross Detwiler, Chien-Ming Wang are all expected to come off the disabled list sometime this year for the Nationals. I also heard this rumor about a guy they have in the minors named Stephen Strasburg who throws the ball really, really hard and is supposed to be really, really good. He should be up when his general manager is done manipulating the service time rules. Uh, I mean when he decides that he’s major league ready. So there is a reason to believe that radar guns will soon be lit up in our nation’s capital.

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim signed closer Brian Fuentes away from the Colorado Rockies following the 2008 season, guaranteeing the left-hander $17.5 million over two years with a $9 million vesting option for 2011. Then, this past offseason, L.A. added former Detroit Tigers closer Fernando Rodney on a two year, $11 million dollar contract. On Monday night against the Tampa Bay Rays, the $28.5 million dollar setup-man and closer duo combined to allow four runs and a -.294 WPA in the 8th and 9th inning. The Angels did manage to come back and win the game 5-4, but their record is still only 15-19 and the bullpen figures to be an issue going forward with Fuentes and Rodney serving as the anchors.

Fernando Rodney is simply not a standout reliever. Over the last three years, he’s walked 92 batters in 165.2 innings, for a rate of 5.00 BB/9. The projection systems all saw him as close to that mark, and as such CHONE and ZiPS projected FIPs of 4.50 and 4.38 respectively – marks that put Rodney at roughly 0.2-0.4 wins above replacement in around 60 innings. He rediscovered himself as a heavy ground-ball pitcher last season, inducing 57.9% ground balls, but his walk rate was still high and the drop in strikeouts actually resulted in a higher FIP at 4.56. Despite throwing 75 innings – quite high for a reliever – Rodney only accrued 0.3 wins above replacement.

Rodney’s numbers have been slightly worse than those of last season. Rodney’s strikeouts are down again and his walks have crept back up to the point that he’s striking out exactly as many as he’s walking, at 10 each, or 6.14 per nine innings. However, he had posted a 2.45 ERA this year prior to last night’s appearance, completely based on a slightly high 80.5% LOB rate and an absurdly low .113 BABIP. Expect him to start allowing more runs as his walk issues will eventually come back to bite him as more hits start falling in.

Fuentes’s season has been odd as well, but in a much different way. The Angels closer blew his second save of the season after allowing his 3rd home run of the season in only 7.2 innings. Unless something has snapped with Fuentes and his stuff is no longer unable to suppress home runs, there is no way that his home run rate remains that high. I don’t believe that is the case – he clearly is still able to induce swings and misses and strikeouts. Fuentes was running a spectacular 12.15 K/9 and an acceptable, albeit high, 4.05 BB/9 entering last night’s appearance.

Fuentes’s poor luck with home runs has been slightly balanced out by a .234 BABIP, leading to a 4.05 ERA entering last night’s blown save. Things should start to even out soon for Fuentes, but don’t be surprised if he arrives at a similar ERA to what he is at now. Fewer fly balls will leave the yard, and more hits will start falling in. Given the fact that we’ve actually seen a drop in velocity from 90.0 to 89.4 on his fastball, Fuentes’s strikeout rate will probably fall as well. It’s highly unlikely that hitters continue to whiff on 30.8% of Fuentes’s offerings in the zone as they have thus far, as his stuff isn’t as good as it was in previous years. He’s never posted an in-zone whiff rate higher than 21.2% in any season where he has pitched a significant amount of innings. Overall, that leaves Fuentes as an unimpressive 4.00 FIP type pitcher, as CHONE and ZiPS projected entering the season.

Between Rodney and Fuentes, the Angels have two pitchers who are merely running on their reputations and save counts from prior years. As a result, more long nights like Monday from that expensive duo could very well be in store for the Angels.

Episode Twenty-Seven
In which the panel records a meltdown.

Headlines
Starlin Castro in the Chicago Sky
Demoted: Alex Gordon
N’doy: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Good
Speaking of Meltdowns
… and other populist declarations!

Featuring
Dave Cameron, Full-Time Employee
Matt Klaassen, Study Carrel-er
Bryan Smith, Resident Prospect Maven

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This past Friday, Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star mentioned that the Seattle Mariners were showing “signs of interest” in Royals designated hitter and “outfielder” Jose Guillen. I’m not exactly sure what that means, given that Dutton (a well-respected reporter) also mentions that there had been “no formal inquiry,” but let’s run with this a little bit. Does this trade even make sense for the Mariners and Royals?

At first blush, this trade rumor seems insane. Guillen is in the last season of an ill-advised three-year, 36 million dollar contract signed with the Royals in 2008. He is owed a prorated portion of $12 million this season. In 2008 he was almost replacement level, and in 2009 somehow managed to “top” that by being almost two wins below replacement in barely half a season. There’s been much talk about Guillen’s return to health after an injury-plagued 2009 (no word about why he was horrible in 2008, naturally) and he’s been hitting for considerable power as the Royals full-time DH this season, at .268/.321/.528 for a .365 wOBA. He’s been pretty lucky with a career-high 20% HR/FB rate, but ZiPS Rest-of-Season projections see a respectable .266/.322/.453 (.342 wOBA) in his immediate future.

But what would Seattle want with this guy? Their current DHs platoon features Ken GriffeyJr., projected by ZiPS ROS for a .304 wOBA, and Mike Sweeney, projected for a .312 wOBA the rest of the season. Even assming a hyper-efficent (and lucky) platoon would get them to .315, with Milton Bradley out indefinitely, a .342 wOBA-hitting Guillen would probably represent about a win improvement over the Leadership Platoon.

That much might be pretty obvious, but what about Guillen’s big salary? Seattle has apparently shown interest in players like Luke Scott, but was unwilling to take on the money, so how would they be able to afford Jose Guillen? This is why this trade rumor isn’t as insane as it seems: even the Royals have to know they would be lucky to get anything back for Guillen. Frankly, even being mentioned in a trade rumor is shocking, given his utter worthlessness in 2008 and 2009. Teams and scouts are rightly skeptical of his hot start. But this also means that unlike with, e.g., Luke Scott, even the Royals know that to get anything back they’ll have to eat almost all of Guillen’s salary. In a weird way, given the perception of his value, Guillen might actually be cheaper. The Mariners could get a cheap (for them) DH to solve that problem, and the Royals (who would be eating a salary they’d have to pay anyway) might get something a bit useful back, like a competent relief prospect. Even the Royals realize they aren’t going anywhere, and might finally be ready to let Kila Ka’aihue fly or flop in the majors, and this would open up a spot for Ka-aihue since they aren’t willing to risk the Wrath of Guillen by sitting him. The Mariners, who had designs on contention this season, could plug a DH hole they’ve been ‘unable’ to fill.

But while a Guillen-to-Seattle notion might not be completely crazy, it breaks down on that last point. The Mariners, with some justification, might have seen themselves with a good shot at winning the West prior to the season, even if they weren’t the favorites. However, they currently find themselves in last place, more than five games back of the first place Rangers. That’s not insurmountable, but given that Rangers are the better team, it’s not clear that even a nearly free Jose Guillen is really worth it, even if Erik Bedard stays healthy when/if he returns. With each loss, the marginal value of a win for Seattle drops, and trading anything of value for a one-win improvement makes less sense. So it’s not insane, but move along, very little to see here.

A glance at Nationals reliever Tyler Clippard’s numbers will certainly impress. He has appeared in 16 games and has thrown 23.2 innings, allowing just two runs during that span. It looks like the low run totals might be more than flukey. Though his BABIP sits at an unsustainably low .220, he has his share of strikeouts, 29, so perhaps he can continue pitching well out of the bullpen even when more batted balls drop in for hits. Yet there’s something deceptive about Clippard’s numbers.

A 0.76 ERA suggests that Clippard has done his job preventing runs, but that’s not exactly the case. While he has allowed only two runs of his own — a triple and sac fly in one case, a homer in the other — he has done a poor job of preventing inherited runners from scoring. In fact, pitchers must hate it when Jim Riggleman lifts them in favor of Clippard when there are men on base. He has allowed 56 percent of his inherited runners to score so far.

In his last three games, in fact, he has allowed at least one inherited runner to score. His record in those games: 3-0. Clippard actually leads the NL in wins, which seems odd, even at this point in the season, from a reliever. Four of those, however, have come after he has blown a lead. You can’t pitch your way into a save situation, but with a little help from your offense you can easily pitch yourself into a win.

Other than striking out plenty of hitters, Clippard does something else well. He does not allow the runners he himself puts on base to score. His strand rate is a ridiculous 97.6 percent, which is third in the NL among pitchers with at least 20 IP. The highest strand rate for any NL pitcher with more than 70 IP last season was 85.2 percent. He has also kept the ball in the park this season despite allowing a 55 percent fly ball rate. While flukes in this regard happen, it’s unlikely that he’ll sustain his 3.6% HR/FB ratio.

The new Meltdown/Shutdown system does favor Clippard, crediting him with 10 shutdowns to just one meltdown. This, however, can be misleading. The statistic depends on WPA. There have been situations this year where Clippard has blown the lead, has had his offense retake it, and then has come out to pitch the next inning. That’s going to reduce his number of meltdowns, because recording outs in later innings, in which he has the lead, will help improve his WPA.

Clippard does have a few things going for him. His FIP is excellent at 2.96 and his xFIP is even decent at 4.03. That shows that he’s a bit lucky on the home runs, but even so he’d still be an effective reliever. His high strikeout rate, too, bodes well for the rest of his season. There are enough warning signs, though, from his high walk rate to his penchant for allowing inherited runners to score to his unsustainable ability to leave men stranded, that suggest that he might soon sport a stat line that more resembles his peripheral performance.

Well, we’re about six weeks into the season so it’s time to take a look at the Rookie of the Year races. Today, we’ll begin with the American League before following up with the National League on Tuesday. Rookies were considered based on a minimum of 50 plate appearances, four starts, or 10 relief appearances. Last year’s AL Rookie of the Year award went to A’s closer Andrew Bailey, followed by Elvis Andrus (Texas) and Rick Porcello (Detroit).

Austin Jackson | CF | Detroit: The 23-year-old Jackson is certainly the top rookie hitter right now. His line of .370/.420/.508 is head-and-shoulders above everyone else in the league – but it’s also quite a bit better than anything he’s ever posted in the minors. Toss in a well-publicized (and enormous) BABIP of .511 and you have the makings of someone that’s going to take a large slide in the second half of 2010. He does deserve credit for recently cutting down on his strikeouts, with just five in his last 10 games. His wOBA of .416 certainly gives Jackson a huge lead on any other rookie hitter in the American League.

Scott Sizemore | 2B | Detroit: Sizemore’s solid start to the ’10 season was overshadowed by Jackson’s great start. The second baseman has been stumbling recently, though, and his triple-slash line is down to .241/.319/.337. After slugging 17 homers and stealing 21 bases in the minors last season, Sizemore has just one long ball (.096 ISO) and zero stolen base attempts in his rookie season in the Majors. He currently has a wOBA of .299. He’s not going to gain any value from his defense, either.

Justin Smoak | 1B | Texas: It’s been a slow start for Smoak on offense. The former first round pick is currently hitting just .196/.303/.411 in 17 games. Given his struggles with the batting average, though, his wOBA of .314 is better than you might think it would be (the MLB average is .326). Smoak has a solid walk rate at 13.6% and his strikeout rate is reasonable at 16.1%. Despite his misfortune with the balls in play (.178 BABIP), the power has been there, as seen by his .214 ISO. It’s a slow start to be sure, but the signs point to Smoak’s overall numbers getting much better as the season progresses.

Reid Brignac | IF | Tampa Bay: Brignac, 24, has seen time at both second base and shortstop in 2010. He’s hitting a respectable .294/.339/.466 in 21 games. He also has a wOBA of .346. He’s not a big home run threat, but Brignac has shown gap power and has an ISO rate of .172. He’s been quite aggressive at swinging at pitches outside the strike zone (almost 20% more than average) but he’s making above-average contact, which has helped to keep his strikeout rate to 15.5%. It has definitely hurt his on-base rate, though, as his walk rate is just 4.8%.

Lou Marson | C | Cleveland: You have to feel a little sorry for Marson. Not only is he adjusting to a new team and a new league as a rookie, but he also has top prospect Carlos Santana breathing down his neck. Marson is currently hitting .203/.261/.266 with a wOBA of .249, so he’s not exactly doing his part to keep the full-time catching gig in Cleveland. The right-handed hitter is batting just .163 against right-handed pitchers. His strikeout rate of 26.6% is far too high for someone with an ISO of just .063.

Mitch Talbot | RHP | Cleveland: The 26-year-old Talbot finally earned a shot at the big leagues in 2010 after posting some solid numbers in triple-A over the past three seasons. The right-hander has a shiny 3.43 ERA but his xFIP is currently 4.94. There is also some significant concern over his strikeout rate of 3.66 K/9, as well as the K/BB of just 0.84. That is not going to help a pitcher succeed over a full season. Talbot has survived this far thanks to a solid ground-ball rate of 52% and a BABIP of .234. American League hitters are making contact against him 93.5% of the time (average is 80.8%).

Wade Davis | RHP | Tampa Bay: Again, we have a rookie pitcher whose overall numbers are not quite as good as the ERA (3.18) would suggest. Davis’ xFIP currently sits at 4.81 and his walk rate has been high at 4.76 BB/9. His strikeout rate is below the league average at 6.62 K/9. He’s also a fly-ball pitcher. On the plus side, he’s allowed just 27 hits in 34.0 innings (.253 BABIP). If we look at his pitch type values, we see that his fastball has been good, but his secondary stuff has not been overly effective.

Brian Matusz | LHP | Baltimore: Matusz has quietly gone about his rookie season, in part because Baltimore just isn’t getting much attention while wallowing in the AL East cellar. The lefty’s xFIP currently sits at 4.80 and there is some concern over his extreme fly-ball tendencies; his ground-ball rate is just 26.6%. That clearly has to improve if he’s going to succeed in the American League. His walk rate is solid at 3.12 BB/9 and his strikeout rate is good at 7.36 K/9. Matusz has given up 46 hits in 40.1 innings, but he’s been hampered by a BABIP of .353.

Neftali Feliz | RHP | Texas: You don’t see many 22-year-old closers, so Feliz is a bit of a rarity. He’s been quite successful since claiming the role and has converted nine of 10 save opportunities. Feliz has a strikeout rate of 9.72 K/9, but his walk rate is even more impressive given his age and experience: 1.62 BB/9. Like with Matusz, the low ground-ball rate of 23.3% is troubling. According to his pitch type values, Feliz’ fastball hasn’t been quite as dynamic as it was in ’09 but he has positive values for all three of his offerings (heater, curveball, change-up).

While taking part in some Mother Day festivities, I was fortunate enough to catch most of the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds contest. This so happens to be a pairing of Dusty Baker’s two most recent employers, so there’s all that added excitement and motivation to an already anticipated divisional rivalry.

Baker takes heat for a lot of things. The two most common criticisms of Baker are his abuse and misusage of young pitchers and toothpicks alike. It’s not like the Cubs from his day or the present-day are dry on pitching prospects. As such, there’s a distinct possibility that Baker views the objects as ultimately similar in construction and availability.

Mike Leake, for his part, pitched well. He actually maintained a no-hitter through five innings that was broken up on an infield single by Starlin Castro.

I bring up Baker for more than a lame joke attempt, though. He – and I’ll assume he is the one who called for these plays – had the Reds execute two plays that were pretty fun to watch, even if they changed the outcome very little.

In the second inning, Jay Bruce and Jonny Gomes hit consecutive doubles to net the Reds a 1-0 lead. Drew Stubbs came up next and showed bunt long enough to bait Aramis Ramirez towards the plate, and sending an avalanching Gomes to third base without a throw. Gomes would then score on a Stubbs’ grounder to short. With nobody out it seems probable that Gomes would’ve scored anyways, but it was a fun and smart play that depended on Stubbs’ fake being believable and Gomes making the right read.

The other Baker act worth noting came on a Cubs’ bunt attempt following the aforementioned Castro single. Ryan Dempster got the sac down, but as Bob Brenly pointed out on the wonderful WGN broadcast, the Reds were set up for a pickoff play. First baseman Joey Votto charged earlier than normal, hoping Castro would take an excess lead while second baseman Brandon Phillips came in quickly to fill in at first base. Even catcher Ramon Hernandez was coming out of his stance before the pitch arrived.