It hasn’t been a great season for the Toronto Blue Jays, but the club keeps tantalizing fans with glimpses of the future promise. Sophomore southpaw Brett Cecil took a perfect game into the seventh inning last night against the Cleveland Indians. It was the fourth time this season (in 27 games) that a Toronto starter has taken a no-hitter into the sixth inning of a game; Shaun Marcum, Brandon Morrow, Ricky Romero, and Cecil have all flirted with brilliance this season, and Marcum is the oldest of the quartet at 28.

For Cecil, the perfect game ended in the seventh inning with one out. He experienced a rare lack of control and walked both Grady Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo. He then retired Austin Kearns before giving up a single into left field off the bat of veteran Jhonny Peralta.

In just his third MLB start of the year, Cecil pitched eight innings, allowed one hit, walked two batters and struck out 10, which was a career high (in 21 MLB appearances). He mixed his four-pitch repertoire effectively and dials his fastball up to 93 mph, when needed.

On the season, he has positive pitch-type values on his slider, change-up, and curveball. He’s struggled with his fastball command in his previous two starts but it was much better on Monday night. The lefty struck out batters with the fastball (four), change-up (three), and slider (three). Veteran catcher John Buck was impressed with Cecil’s performance.

“The operative word here is ‘pitched,'” Buck said to MLB.com. “He was locating his fastball in and out. He was aggressive with a whole array of pitches, and makes it tough for hitters to sit on one pitch or on one location. He’s able to spread the plate.”

The 23-year-old pitcher was rushed to the Majors in ’09 when injuries depleted the Jays’ starting rotation and minor league depth. He made 17 starts and posted a 4.68 xFIP in 93.1 innings. Cecil was sent to triple-A to begin the 2010 season after he was slowed by a cut on his throwing hand in spring training.

An injury to veteran Brian Tallet brought him back up to the Majors in late April. Through three starts, he has a 3.30 xFIP, as well as a walk rate of 1.74 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.15 K/9. His MLB numbers don’t agree right now but Cecil is a solid ground-ball pitcher with a worm-burning rate in the minors just shy of 60%. Last night, he induced nine ground-ball outs compared to four fly-ball outs.

Perhaps due, in part, to his late start to the season, Cecil has tired early in games. According to the Sportsnet broadcast last night, he has allowed a .118 batting average during his first 75 pitches in each of his three starts but an average of more than .500 from pitch 76 and upward.

Cecil was a supplemental first round selection (38th overall) during the 2007 draft. The left-hander was a closer at the University of Maryland before he was moved to the starting rotation by the Jays organization. The club has also had success with converting college closers David Bush (now with Milwaukee) of Wake Forest University and Marcum of Southwest Missouri State U.

One thing Cecil might want to watch in future starts, though, is his work from the stretch. He pitched out of the stretch just once in the game – during the seventh inning – and his pitching grips were fully visible in his glove, which was open to the base runner at second base.

Yesterday Jack wrote about the horrible Diamondbacks bullpen. While the crew got a boost last night by facing the Astros lineup for four innings, they still hold the worst ERA and FIP of any NL bullpen. With defense independent figures like that the Diamondbacks bullpen might actually be this bad. They could make changes, and perhaps some of their pitchers improve during the next five months, but the process and results correlation does not bode well.

What about the best bullpens in the NL? Are they built for success? Are the worst non-Arizona bullpens as bad as their ERAs indicate? The answers are probably not and no, but the questions led me to find some odd numbers throughout National League bullpens.

The Mets bullpen has thrown 97 innings, second most in the NL to the Pirates. That amounts to more than 3.2 innings per game, a rate that the unit probably cannot sustain. Even the 2009 Dodgers, the only NL playoff team with a bullpen that threw more than 500 innings, averaged under 3.2 innings per appearance. As expected, the bullpen FIP, 3.78, is a bit higher than the ERA, 2.60. Of all the NL teams with a bullpen ERA under 4, only Atlanta’s FIP outpaces its ERA. Of the other five, only one, San Diego, comes within even 1.00 of its bullpen ERA.

The Mets and the Pirates bullpens actually have a connection. They both boast high strikeout rates and low walk rates. The Mets relievers have struck out 22.2 percent of batters faced and have walked 13 percent, while the Pirates have struck out 21.2 percent of opposing hitters and have walked 11.3 percent. Pittsburgh actually has a better bullpen K/BB ratio. Difference, though, comes on the long ball. The Mets bullpen has allowed six home runs, while the Pirates unit has allowed double that. The Pirates bullpen has also allow far more hits and sport a .331 BABIP, almost .060 points higher than the Mets.

Thanks to Ubaldo Jimenez and Aaron Cook, the Rockies have let their bullpen rest for two games this season. In games they’ve actually pitched they’ve averaged just under 3.2 innings per appearances, but because of the complete games the unit averages a hair over 3.1 innings per game. The bullpen FIP, 3.53, is no great shakes. In fact, it ranks below Florida’s bullpen FIP, 3.38, though Florida’s bullpen ERA sits at 4.46, eighth in the NL. Combined with a .270 BABIP, Colorado’s bullpen success seems unsustainable. Having pitchers who go deep into games, though, will help mitigate a correction.

While Florida’s bullpen ERA sits above its bullpen FIP by a considerable amount, 1.08, the oddest NL bullpen unit so far is easily Washington. The ERA isn’t so bad, just 4.05. In fact, that’s good for seventh best in the NL. When I first got a look at the bullpen peripherals, though, I thought the unit would have an astronomical FIP. In 91 innings the bullpen has allowed 12 home runs, as many as the Pirates. The Pirates have a better K/BB ratio, and so have a better FIP, 4.42, than the Nationals pen, 4.65. Yet the Pirates bullpen sports a far worse ERA, 5.83, probably due to the BABIP discrepancy. Washington’s bullpen has allowed a .275 average on balls in play.

We know that bullpens are the most volatile aspects of major league teams, so oddities like this can be expected when our sample is limited to a month of data. No bullpen has crossed the 100-inning mark, though Pittsburgh should tonight. During the next few months I expect that we’ll see fewer of these oddities. For now, though, we can get a better idea of why a bullpen has performed so well or so poorly, even if it is not a reflection of how they’ll perform from May through September.

By virtue of getting blown out repeatedly, the Pittsburgh Pirates have the worst run differential in baseball, at a staggering -89 runs. Following in second place are the woeful Houston Astros at -52, and the Baltimore Orioles check in third at -42 runs. None of this is surprising – these teams aren’t very good.

Know who has the fourth worst run differential in MLB right now? The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, at -37. Yes, the Angels have almost the same ratio of runs scored to runs allowed as the 7-19 Orioles, and yet, their past success and the name value of the guys on the roster continue to convince people that this is a good baseball team.

The evidence continues to mount that it’s just not true. Heading into the season, the projection systems were universally down on the Angels roster, projecting them for between 75 and 85 wins, a steep drop-off from their 97 wins of a year ago. The outfield defense looked really bad, the offense was relying on guys sustaining career best performances, and the success of the rotation involved big bets on a few guys with lingering health concerns.

To date, all of that has manifest itself on the field. The corner outfield rotation of Bobby Abreu, Juan Rivera, and Hideki Matsui have failed to make plays, costing their flyball pitching staff outs and allowing opponents to put runs on the board. In addition, Rivera hasn’t hit nearly as well as he did last year, and neither has Erick Aybar, another key breakout player from last year’s team who the Angels were relying on for offense.

But, while those problems are legitimate, the main concern for the Angels has to be their pitching staff.

Jered Weaver and Joel Pineiro are pitching strong up front (don’t let Pineiro’s ERA fool you), but beyond those two, the questions add up very quickly. Ervin Santana’s fastball is exactly the same as it was last year, and he’s not showing any signs of returning to the front-line starter that he was in 2008. Scott Kazmir continues to try to adjust to life without a good fastball, but it’s still not going well. Joe Saunders is pitching like a #5 starter who needs a better defense to survive.

The Angels rotation has always been the strength of their teams, as they ran away with the AL West. Now, though, it’s no longer a strength, and the rest of the team isn’t making up for the lost ground.

The Angels are a good hitting team that will struggle to keep teams from putting runs on the board. In many ways, they’re pretty similar to the teams that the Rangers used to run out a few years ago, featuring good hitters who couldn’t field and a pitching staff that couldn’t overcome their defense. That formula never worked for Texas, and I don’t see much evidence that it will work for Anaheim either.

A month into the season, we have a bit more reason to believe the projection systems. This Angels team has a lot of problems.

Whether it’s the lack of tradeable picks, the problems signing draftees, or the wait to see draftees help at the Major League level, the baseball Amateur Draft is the least accessible draft of any major sport. And every year, as more fans become interested in the draft, I always get questions from confused people that don’t understand why their team — that doesn’t have a viable third baseman in the organization — doesn’t take Joe Schmo, a solid third base prospect from College X.

In a sport that admirably sticks to Best Player Available more than any other, it is worth wondering what the draft might look like if a farm system’s strengths and weaknesses were considered. Because it’s a nice way to review these farms, and review potential top 10 prospects, I’ve looked into this alternate reality today. This is no projection of what will happen in one month, but a thought exercise on what could if teams took a more macro view in their draft rooms.

1. Washington Nationals. The most important need for the Nationals is identity and profit margin, and the only prospect in this draft that can effect either is Bryce Harper. Yes, they have Derek Norris behind the plate, but it’s not as if Harper’s value is tied to his position. It’s tied to his bat, and frankly, it’s also tied to his hype. Signing the two most hyped prospects of the decade will create real interest in this franchise. The pick: Bryce Harper.

2. Pittsburgh Pirates. A 6.79 team ERA doesn’t even tell the full story on how bad the Pirates need pitching in their system. There are some arms that have varying degrees of supporters (Morris, Lincoln, Owens, Locke) and some solid arms in Extended Spring Training, but not nearly enough to match an offense that should have Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen blossoming simultaneously. They need a pitcher that will be ready then. The pick: Deck McGuire.

3. Baltimore Orioles. While the offensive core of Matt Wieters, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis is more accomplished, I believe the young pitching that Baltimore has dedicated to developing is their real strength. You have Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta, followed by lots of depth from Zach Britton to Matt Hobgood. So I think this team could use some athleticism up the middle to pair with that offensive core, someone to pair with last year’s pick of Mychael Givens. The pick: Manny Machado.

4. Kansas City Royals. The Royals would be tempted to take Jameson Taillon, but for the purpose of this article, I think Mike Montgomery, Tim Melville, Tyler Sample and others meets KC’s quota for projectable prep pitchers. The breakouts of Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas are encouraging, but search far and wide, and you don’t see outfielders anywhere in this system. This draft doesn’t line up perfectly for that type of player, but in this exercise, we have to fill the need. The pick: Michael Choice.

5. Cleveland Indians. The deepest farm system in baseball, so the most difficult to choose a weakness. But while I’ve praised the depth of pitchers in the organization, a lot of them are guys that might end up as relievers: Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, Alex White and others. You can never have too much pitching, and given the collection they have, someone set on the starter-or-bust path would fit well with the other arms. The pick: Karsten Whitson.

6. Arizona Diamondbacks. A lot of Arizona’s youth is in the Major Leagues, leaving the minor leagues lacking much talent. The team ERA nearing 6, and the lack of any discernible healthy pitching prospect means the Snakes should certainly head in that direction. They won’t have this Major League offensive core forever, so they might also prefer a college arm that will reach the Majors in time for Justin Upton’s peak. The pick: Drew Pomeranz.

7. New York Mets. This has been praised as a pitching-heavy draft, and that’s good, because this is another team that needs more pitching. Jeurys Familia and Kyle Allen are struggling, Jennry Mejia is in the bullpen, and a guy like Brad Holt has not broke out like expected. This team also should show its fan base that they will spend in the draft, something they have not done in a few years. Landing the top high school arm fits both “needs”. The pick: Jameson Taillon.

8. Houston Astros. One of the Major League’s weakest farm systems, although if you want to get positive, Jordan Lyles and Tanner Bushue are a pair of recently drafted pitchers that turned in very good Aprils. You can’t say the same for any offensive prospect south of Koby Clemens, and even the highly touted players they do have (Jason Castro, Jio Mier) aren’t players that figure to fit in the middle of the order. They need power. The pick: Zack Cox.

9. San Diego Padres. I would guess that few organizations had a more discouraging April on the farm than the Padres. Yes, Drew Cumberland is finally healthy, and Simon Castro is capable of handling Double-A, but everywhere else you look, prospects are slumping. The outfield and third base are the two things that San Diego doesn’t need, but I still think building an offense should be the first priority. The pick: Christian Colon.

10. Oakland Athletics. Let’s run down the list. The catcher position has Suzuki in the Majors, Stassi’s investment in the minors. First base is a logjam led by Chris Carter. Second base should be held down by Jemile Weeks, although the team still has hopes for Eric Sogard. Shortstop is a mix between Cliff Pennington and Grant Green. Third base is a weakness, but Zack Cox is gone. There is a lot of depth in the outfield. So, given the adage that you can never have too much pitching, and because this draft supports that ideology, we’re going there. The pick: Chris Sale.

Entering last night’s start against the Oakland Athletics, Rich Harden had been largely ineffective in his new role as the ace of the Texas Rangers pitching staff. Through his first five starts, Harden had only pitched 23.2 innings with a 4.56 ERA and an atrocious 6.97 FIP, thanks in large part to an 8.75 BB/9. As that suggests, Harden has been throwing a ton of pitches this season – he had thrown at least 87 pitches in every start so far despite only throwing more than 4.1 innings twice.

As Harden is a high-strikeout, high-walk pitcher, it’s unsurprising that he typically runs high pitch counts. Harden’s calling card with the Cubs last year were brilliant, 10 strikeout games in which he would be forced to leave after five innings and 110 pitches thrown. Also, given his injury history, pitch counts are often at the front of his manager and GM’s mind during each of his starts.

Harden’s pitch counts have been highly correlated with his success through his career so far. Below is a chart of average pitches per inning on a per-game level plotted against game WPA.

We see a strong correlation, and, in particular, a striking trend: if Harden can keep his pitches per inning below 16, he will almost certainly enjoy some level of success in his starts. He’s only run a negative WPA three times in 61 career starts in which he’s thrown 16 pitches per inning or fewer. The results are less conclusive as Harden’s average pitches per inning increases until his average pitches per inning eclipses 23. After that point, 75% (12 of 16) of his starts have resulted in negative WPAs.

Four of Harden’s first five starts resulted in an average pitches per inning above 17, with an average WPA of -.126. The other – his most recent start, prior to last night – saw Harden throw an average of 14.5 pitches per inning, right on the threshold where Harden is guaranteed to be above average. By WPA, Harden was +.056 in that start, despite 5 walks and only 2 strikeouts – not the most effective start, but he managed to record 8 ground ball outs, which were key in escaping with only three runs allowed in six innings.

Harden’s start on Monday was his best yet and by far. Harden went 7 innings and allowed no runs, striking out nine and walking none. He threw 108 pitches in the start, for an average of 15.4 per inning. That’s right in the range that Harden should be shooting for – as a strikeout pitcher who also gives up a lot of fly balls, Harden should look to avoid contact, and as such he will encounter many at bats of multiple pitches.

Of course, throwing fewer pitches generally means facing fewer hitters, leading to fewer runs. With Harden, however, his pitch counts will remain an issue for reasons other than his effectiveness. Due to his style of pitching, more pitches generally means more walks, which will kill any fly ball pitcher. Secondly, given his injury history, it is certainly in the Rangers best interest to keep Harden’s pitch count low. If he’s struggling to get through 6 innings in less than 100 pitches, keeping Harden’s arm out from under duress will mean that he’s not giving them enough innings to provide value in the first place.

Monday night’s start was a great sign on nearly every front for the Rangers and Rich Harden. If he can remain as efficient as he was in that start while maintaining the knockout stuff that allows for nine strikeouts in seven innings, he will be a key piece in a team that is emerging in a tight AL West.

As Eno pointed out last week over on the RotoGraphs side, Trevor Hoffman is struggling right now. He’s currently sporting a FIP of 10.50, XFIP of 6.62, and a WPA of -1.54. Is there anything in the data that sheds a little light on the problem? Perusing the data there are some things that stand out, notably pitch usage, contact stats, and an extreme fly ball tendency.

As Eno already noted, Hoffman is using his changeup much less this year than years past (21% compared to 29% career average) with his fastball picking up the some of difference (66% to 63% career average). In order to dig a little deeper I looked at Hoffman’s page in Texas Leaguers’ pitch F/X database and ran some splits by year on pitch utilization. The largest discrepancy was, not surprisingly, the changeup. The surprising part to me was that the drop from last year to this year was larger against RHB (32% in 2009 to 10% in 2010) than it was against LHB. This could be a key piece of information as most of the HR’s Hoffman has given up have been on fastballs to RHB. Could right handed batters just be ignoring the changeup and sitting on the fastball?

Also of interest is that Hoffman has struggled at getting swings and misses so far this season. Looking at Hoffman’s plate discipline stats, we see an abnormally high Contact% (88% compared to career 75% career). Also of particular interest are the results on pitches out of the zone. Hoffman is only getting swings on 20% of pitches out of the zone, and even when he does get swings he only gets swings and misses 22% (compared to 48% for his career) of the time. Turning back to Hoffman’s Texas Leaguers’ page, the culprit again appears to be his changeup, which has gone from getting whiffs 20% of the time in 2009 to only 9% of the time in 2010.

As I said in the intro, up until this point in the season Hoffman has become even more of a fly ball pitcher than normal. He currently leads all qualified relievers in FB% by a large margin with 71.8%, which is offset by an astonishingly low GB% of 12.8%. This is even more problematic when you sport a 21.4% HR/FB ratio as Hoffman currently does. Will the ratio remain that high? Probably not, but even if it comes down to a more respectable number it still will not solve all of his problems as his still high xFIP indicates.

I’ve thrown a bunch of various percents your way this morning, so I should probably summarize. Hoffman’s throwing his bread and butter pitch, his chanegeup, less than in years past. He’s getting fewer swings and misses, again notably on his changeup. He’s been giving up flyballs at a dizzying pace, which has also led to giving up HRs at a dizzying pace. So far this has all added up to disaster.

Admittedly, if this happened in May or June or even August nobody would notice. But April just ended and that means an entire month of data is available. And that means people will take note that Mike Pelfrey, Ubaldo Jimenez, Livan Hernandez, and Francisco Liriano had earned run averages below 1.00. A sub-1 ERA is more significant than a .300 batting average because it means the pitchers are allowing fewer than one earned run per nine innings pitched. That’s not to say ERA is meaningful though. This is just for trivial purposes. Four pitchers pulling the sub-1 ERA trick is pretty rare though, check the quantity by year:

2010: 4
2009: 1 (Zack Greinke)
2008: 1 (Cliff Lee)
2007: 0 (Closest: John Maine 1.35)
2006: 0 (Closest: John Thomson 1.32)
2005: 1 (John Patterson)
2004: 0 (Closest: Tom Glavine 1.64)
2003: 0 (Closest: Shawn Chacon 1.04)
2002: 2 (Tom Glavine and Al Leiter)

Throughout the eight season stretch from 2002-2009 we had four sub-1 ERA Aprils. 2010 matched that total. It’s easy to look at recent history (well, the last two years) and pencil in Liriano as the American League Cy Young winner – and hey, maybe he will be – but the rest of the list is rather lackluster. Here’s a look at the top xFIP through April for each of those seasons:

2010: Tim Lincecum (2.21)
2009: Javier Vazquez (2.25)
2008: John Smoltz (2.57)
2007: Jake Peavy (3.18)
2006: Cory Lidle (2.91)
2005: Johan Santana (1.93)
2004: Ben Sheets (2.75)
2003: Javier Vazquez (2.03)
2002: Curt Schilling (1.62)

The John Smoltz incited argument from last season on the granularity of ~40 innings worth of pitching need not be rehashed. This is just one month of data and it’s only notable because it’s the first and only month we have. I mean, do you know who lead the majors in xFIP for June of 2005?* Of course not. The old rule in screenwriting is that the author must mention an object or item at least seven times for the audience to remember it. I think I’ve fulfilled that requirement, but just to make sure: These numbers do not guarantee future success nor do they reflect true talent levels.

*‘Twas Chris Carpenter

Signed to a one-year contract with a team option for 2011 by the Blue Jays this offseason, Alex Gonzalez did not attract much attention on the free agent market after being cut loose by the Red Sox. He netted just $2.75 million for this year and his option is worth only $2.5 million. There was good reason for that lack of fanfare. Alex Gonzalez hasn’t been a good hitter ever aside from 2007. He has survived by being a solid glove man at short stop but having turned 33, one had to wonder how much longer that would hold out.

It is too soon into the season to make any comments on Gonzalez’s fielding prowess, though the early returns look good, but he has apparently remembered that he once hit 23 home runs with the Marlins. Hitting just eight home runs all of last year over 429 trips to the plate, Gonzalez already has matched that total in just 109 plate appearances this season. His eighth home run coming off Ben Sheets yesterday, Gonzalez now boasts a .922 OPS completely supported by his .619 slugging percentage.

Gonzalez still lacks plate patience and is striking out a prodigious level which might undermine his offensive output down the line, but for now he is surviving and managing to be an asset despite a .303 on base percentage. At 1.3 WAR, Gonzalez is already nearly halfway to his previous career high.

Given his current plate discipline numbers, he seems a prime candidate to suffer through some horrendous slumps as the year progresses but with his good fielding at a premium position, Alex Gonzalez has already returned adequate value on the Toronto’s investment.

The finest moment in Jim Hendry’s general managing career still might be that July night in 2003 when he landed Aramis Ramirez. Henry wound up acquiring Kenny Lofton too for Jose Hernandez, a minor league pitcher, a promise of future employment to Dave Littlefield, and Bobby Hill (much to the chagrin of Randall Simon, this was not the animated character who adores fruit pies). The Cubs were a series of unfortunate events away from reaching the World Series, and the Pirates were the Pirates.

Six and a half years later, Ramirez is the only player from that trade still in the confines of Major League Baseball (Hill has carved out a niche in the Newark Bears, hitting .286/.417/.414 for his career). Some fans of the Cubs may very well wish he was elsewhere with his production so far in the 2010 season. He’s batting .155/.215/.278 with three home runs and three doubles to his name.

Some aspects of Ramirez’s struggles aren’t showing up in his slash line either, such as his strikeout rate which is approaching 26%. Ramirez’s career strikeout rate is hovering above 15%. One of the other underlying issues with Ramirez is his inability to hit fastballs. He’s giving away five runs per 100 fastballs, which is the worst in baseball. In fact, Juan Pierre is second worst, and he’s only giving away three runs per 100 fastballs seen.

Ramirez only has a .169 batting average on balls in play, but some would probably raise the question: is this bad luck or is it a slow bat? Call the sudden decaying run values against fastballs by Morgan Ensberg and Richie Sexson to the stand and there’s a battle brewing. Through Saturday’s affairs, Ramirez was swinging and missing at roughly 11% of the fastballs he’d seen and fouling about 19% off. In 2009, Ramirez found himself whiffing a little under 8% of the time and fouling off 27% of fastballs seen.

It’s probably nothing to worry about. Ramirez started the 2006 season with a similarly poor April against fastballs and chugged along to a .381 wOBA. Still, sharing a dishonorable accolade with recent leaders like Brian Giles and Kevin Millar can’t do much to inspire confidence alongside the slow start.

If I told you that a team was hitting .274/.349/.476, including a league leading 38 home runs and 144 runs scored in its first 25 games, you would assume they had been playing well, right? That sounds like the kind of team that could get around a poor month from its starting pitchers – even with their starters allowing a 4.69 FIP and 5.34 ERA, this hypothetical team should have been able to slug their way to at least a .500 record, if not higher. Instead, the Arizona Diamondbacks, powered by Kelly Johnson, Justin Upton, and Mark Reynolds, are sitting at 11-14, tied for last in the NL West and 5 games behind the surprising San Diego Padres.

It’s not that their hitters or starters have been producing in unimportant situations, either. D’Backs hitters have been great, compiling a whopping +3.24 WPA , easily best in the majors. Their starters have been unimpressive, posting a mere -1.34 WPA. Still, between both these groups, the D’Backs have a +1.90 WPA, which would equate to a team that’s about 4 games over .500.

However, the Diamondbacks bullpen has been absolutely atrocious by every measure. Their 7.02 ERA and 6.17 FIP are both worst in baseball. They’ve been beaten by the home run in particular, allowing 1.94 home runs per nine innings. It all adds up to a WPA of -3.40 as a group. Most of the blame falls on the two late-inning relievers, Chad Qualls and Juan Gutierrez. Each has allowed 2 HRs and at least 4 BBs in 10 and 11 innings respectively. Qualls has compiled -0.96 WPA already, and Gutierrez is even worse at -0.99.

These players both have entered games in important situations – Qualls’s gmLI – Leverage Index upon game entrance – is 1.23, and Gutierrez’s is at a whopping 2.05. Not only has Gutierrez been ineffective, he has been ineffective in situations that are twice as important as the average baseball confrontation.

Blaine Boyer and Aaron Heilman have also struggled, combining for a large portion of the -1.45 WPA remaining for the D’Backs bullpen. In fact, only two D’Backs relievers have positive WPAs for the year – Esmerling Vasquez and Jordan Norberto, who have thrown a combined 9.2 innings. Overall, the -3.40 WPA from the bullpen pushes the teams total WPA to -1.50, which translates to the 3 games below .500 we have seen from Arizona thus far.

The -3.40 WPA so far puts the D’Backs on pace to receive a mind numbing -22.0 WPA from the relievers for the season. That, of course, is completely unsustainable. The worst relief corps from 2009 was the Pirates, at only -5.88. The D’Backs RPs have given up home runs on 15% of fly balls so far, a number that should fall as the season progresses. Still, there’s not much talent in this bullpen, and it projects as a weakness over the rest of the season.

The Diamondbacks have the lineup to compete even with a below average pitching staff. If Brandon Webb can return in June, the starting rotation would go from slightly below average to well above average. This is a team that should have the talent to compete if it can just get the bullpen to produce at any sort of reasonable, if still below average level.