The accolades being handed out to baseball’s current rookie class have been impressive — the best rookie class ever, the Year of the Rookie, etc. For prospect mavens and scouts alike, the successes of Stephen Strasburg, Jason Heyward and Carlos Santana are validations that baseball’s future can be predicted to some degree. However, alongside that touted triumvirate of rookies are Tyler Colvin and Brennan Boesch, two smooth-swinging lefties currently batting a combined .310/.358/.586 in 387 plate appearances. Neither was ever a top 100 prospect. Colvin was a first-round pick that many (including myself) criticized; Boesch was a guy I undershot on the day of his debut.

It’s easy to say that these are two guys that we missed, but I’m also hoping we can learn something from it. What traits do they have, or did they show in the minors, that we can look for the next time around? After all, both are former highly regarded college guys, have some swing-and-miss in their pretty left-handed swings, and have body types that intrigue scouts. You trade a little Colvin speed for some more Boesch power, but we have some undeniable similarities as a jumping off point.

So my first question was this: is this player, the left-handed slugger pegged as a platoon player, something we have underrated before? My findings were very telling. I started with this query in the Baseball-Reference Play Index: what left-handed hitters not ranked in a Baseball America Top 100 have had a .200 ISO in their first chance at regular playing time (150 plate appearances)? Here are the findings from 1995-2009:

Chris Duncan – 2006
Garrett Jones – 2009
Matt Joyce – 2008
Jay Gibbons – 2001
Andy Tracy – 2000
Jody Gerut – 2003
Mike Jacobs – 2005-2006
Chris Davis – 2008
Brad Wilkerson – 2002
Eric Hinske – 2002
Luke Scott – 2006
Chris Richard – 2000
Brian Daubach – 1999
Erubiel Durazo – 1999
Jon Nunnally – 1995
Mark Johnson – 1995
Matt Luke – 1998
Armando Rios – 1999

Overall, we have 18 players, with their seasons covering a total of 6,290 plate appearances. Cumulatively, in their first chance at regular playing time, this left-handed group hit .274/.352/.512. Only Luke Scott had a better OPS+ than where Boesch stands currently, but seven players finished above where Colvin’s 127 OPS+ resides. Colvin isn’t far from the group average, and when both players see some second half regression, I’m sure they’ll fit cleanly in this group.

But with the 1.5 dozen players listed above, what they did as rookies is equally interesting to what they did the rest of their careers: .254/.335/.444. This is a 10% drop-off in OPS, and a 20% drop-off in ISO. Look at the list: these are not players that blossomed into stars after good rookie campaigns. Guys like Daubach, Wilkerson, Hinske and Gibbons would go on to fight for a spot between the starting lineup and the bench. Others like Nunnally, Luke, Tracy would barely have big league careers after. You could count the number of 500+ PA seasons this group achieved after their early career breakouts on two hands. Luke Scott is becoming the group’s best success story.

Part of me wonders if there is some market inefficiency to be found here — that left-handed minor league sluggers are geared for some immediate big league success before teams start to figure out their holes. Perhaps they are a group that peaks a little earlier than most. But that would be ignoring a group I’m sure is even larger than 18 — the left-handed sluggers given a shot in the big leagues that failed. Colvin and Boesch, two players that combined to hit .267/.311/.402 in 1,400 plate appearances in A-ball, are merely in a fraternity of guys that were unfazed in the Majors. In time, their weaknesses will be exposed, and while retaining some value going forward (as the bench/platoon players we pegged them for), it’s unlikely either will be a good bet for regular playing time.

Or, perhaps, I should just let this tried-and-true method speak for itself:

Name        PA   2B   3B   HR   BB   SO
Player A   229   15    3   12   16   44
Player B   239   14    2   14   17   40

Player A led the Eastern League with 28 home runs the year before he produced those counting stats in his Major League debut. Player B finished third in the Texas League with 29 home runs the year before he produced those counting stats in his Major League debut. Player A is Brennan Boesch. Player B is Chris Richard.

Boesch and Tyler Colvin have earned regular jobs for 2011, but those should come with tempered expectations. Their numbers are as good as they’re going to be.

In 2009, Detroit Tigers right-hander Justin Verlander took his performance to another level. The Old Dominion product punched out 7.19 batters per nine innings and issued 3.27 walks per nine frames during his first three full seasons in the majors, with a 4.17 FIP, a 4.48 xFIP and an average of 3.5 Wins Above Replacement per year. But last season, Verlander was an absolute force — he had 10.09 K/9 and 2.36 BB/9, posting a 2.80 FIP, a 3.26 xFIP and 8.2 WAR. That WAR total tied Verlander with Tim Lincecum for second among big league starters, trailing only Zack Greinke. Over the winter, the Tigers locked up Verlander with a five-year, $80 million contract that keeps him in Detroit through 2014.

While Verlander’s tour de force 2009 was impressive, it would have been irresponsible to just assume he’d keep pitching like that from now on. Prior to the 2010 season, CHONE projected that Verlander would have 8.81 K/9, 2.88 BB/9 and a 3.46 FIP, while ZiPS had a forecast of 8.9 K/9, 3.08 BB/9 and a 3.49 FIP. The FANS thought he would keep more of those ’09 gains, projecting 9.53 K/9, 2.59 BB/9 and a 3.41 ERA.

So far, the second overall pick in the ’04 draft is pitching well, if not at last year’s torrid pace. He’s got a 3.38 FIP and 2.5 WAR in 103 innings. His xFIP sits at a less impressive 4.10, due to a 5.8 percent home run per fly ball rate that’s below his 8.2 percent career rate entering the season and the 11 percent big league average. Verlander’s walk rate (3.15 BB/9) is a smidge higher than the projections. His K rate (8.13 K/9) is a bit further off the mark — basically eight to nine strike outs below the CHONE and ZiPS projections, and 16 below the more optimistic FAN forecast. While the difference is by no means alarming, I thought it would be interesting to compare Verlander’s 2009 season to his previous work, showing some of the reasons why his punch out rate has gone from stratospheric to merely excellent.

The 27-year-old is doing a fantastic job of getting ahead of the hitter — his first pitch strike percentage has actually improved from 62.1% in ’09 to 65.3% this year (62.1% average from ’06 to ’08). However, batters are having an easier time connecting with his stuff, both inside and out of the strike zone.

Verlander’s in-zone contact rate was 83.4% in 2009, but it’s 87.3% in 2010. That’s somewhat below the 88% MLB average, but above his 86.8% in-zone contact rate from 2006-2008. Opponents also seem to be fending off more of Verlander’s chase pitches — his out-of zone contact rate was 58.8% in ’09 (61.7% MLB average that year), but it’s up to 71.9% this season (66.6% MLB average). His O-contact rate was 66.7% from 2006-2008 (the MLB average ranged from 57.4% to 61.7% over that time frame).

In 2009, Verlander induced swinging strikes a whopping 11.3 percent of the time (8.3-8.6% MLB average in recent years). That was the third highest rate among qualified major league starters, and well above his 8.4% average from 2006-2008. This season, Verlander’s swinging strike rate sits at 8.2 percent.

In terms of pitch type, the biggest difference between Verlander ’09 and Verlander ’10 is his hopping mid-nineties fastball. According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Verlander got a whiff with his heater 10.6 percent of the time in 2009. This season, he’s getting a whiff 6.3 percent of the time that he rears back and fires (the MLB average is around six percent). His curve is also getting fewer misses — 6.3%, compared to 8.6% last season (11.6% MLB average). The whiff rate on Verlander’s changeup is unchanged (20.5% in ’09, 20.4% in 2010, 12.6% MLB average). For comparison, Verlander’s fastball had a 6.2% whiff rate in 2008, his curve got a whiff 10.1% and his changeup was swung through 11.8%.

It seems as though Verlander is settling in at a performance level somewhere between that of his first three seasons and last year’s fire-breathing dominance. He’s not whiffing ten batters per nine frames again, but that really shouldn’t have been the expectation anyway.

(Note: In 2009, the Pitch F/X system classified almost all of Verlander’s fastballs as four seamers. This year, About 10% of his fastballs are classified as two-seamers. Whether that’s an actual change by Verlander or the result of a change in pitch classification by Pitch F/X, I’m not quite sure.)

There’s no denying that Chris Coghlan produced in his rookie year for the Marlins. He posted a .321/.390/.460 line that took him straight to the top of the NL Rookie of the Year ballot. However, the sustainability of this kind of performance wasn’t obvious by any means. Coghlan was helped out by a .365 BABIP. With an average performance on balls in play, Coghlan’s wOBA likely falls near the league average, which is a poor mark for a below average defensive left fielder, as Coghlan appears to be. That lead to a few doubts about Coghlan’s performance this year, although the projection systems still saw him as an above average hitter. CHONE projected a .357 wOBA while ZiPS was less optimistic at .345.

The pessimistic types looked to be vindicated at the beginning of the season. Coghlan had an atrocious April, posting a .195 batting average without a single extra base hit. He wasn’t walking either; at month’s end, Coghlan’s wRC+ was 26 through 88 plate appearances. Things picked up in May, but not to the point where his hitting could be called productive. Coghlan’s May line very much looked like a possibility for what to expect from him – with a .296 BABIP and 7.1% BB%, Coghlan posted a .262/.304/.369 triple slash line. His strikeouts were up and the walks were slightly down from his rookie season, but this looked dangerously close to what we might expect out of a Chris Coghlan who couldn’t post a .360 BABIP.

Of course, much can happen in a month. Something great happened to Coghlan, as he made major league pitchers look silly for all of June. Coghlan posted a 200 wRC+. Naturally, Coghlan’s success came on the heels of an equally ridiculous .468 BABIP. Still, there were encouraging signs apart from the success on balls in play. Coghlan’s walk rate was up to 12.2% after sitting below 8% the whole season. His power also started to materialize, as he posted a .264 ISO – likely aided by the BABIP, but still encouraging, given his struggles with extra base hits.

Coghlan’s line to date is now .282/.348/.419, which is below what he produced last season, but a .343 wOBA is serviceable for a left fielder. His BABIP for the season now sits at .352. He’s been a little worse this season due to more strikeouts and the lower BABIP, but he’s still a good major league hitter and the reason is still a high BABIP. The longer Coghlan can keep up this high BABIP, the more confidence we can have in projecting a high BABIP for the future, but at this point, we just never know if we’re going to get the April Coghlan, the May Coghlan, or the June Coghlan, or something inbetween. Simply put, Chris Coghlan is still a very mysterious player.

I don’t know how it happened, exactly. One minute I was minding my own business, wandering aimlessly around the internet like I always do; the next, I was discussing — with Eric Nusbaum of Pitchers and Poets fame — the role of chance in baseball, the unfortunate career path of Tagg Bozied, and the Book of Job all at once.

What follows is the fruit of that conversation.

Carson: Eric, I know some things about you that the reader probably doesn’t — namely, that (a) until yesterday, the first baseman on your fantasy baseball team was Luke Scott, that (b) Scott is no longer your first baseman because he injured himself during a home trot last night, and that (c) the only reason you had Luke Scott in the first place was as a replacement for Kendry Morales, who also hurt himself after hitting a home run.

So, my hard-hitting question is: what the H, dude?

Eric: You could say I have the luck of Job, or maybe of Tagg Bozied. If not that, then perhaps I am the one causing these injuries. Perhaps there is something haunted about my team — Chase Utley went down this week, too.

Carson: I want to address the possibility of your superpowers momentarily, but first let’s discuss Tagg Bozied. Bozied, in the event that the reader isn’t familiar, is the outfielder who, in 2004, after hitting a walk-off grand slam to beat the Tacoma Rainiers, ruptured the patella tendon in his left knee while landing on home plate. In other words, it was a pretty similar injury to Morales’s. The difference is that Bozied was only — what? — 23 or 24 at the time, was raking in Triple-A, and has never made it to the majors despite still being around.

Do you think that’s the worst case scenario for a prospect? And also: what is it that’s so — I don’t know — tragic-seeming about Bozied’s case?

Eric: I don’t know if it’s the worst, but it has to be close. Bozied will always have the benefit of wondering what could have been. That has to be slightly better than never getting hurt, but also never being good enough. Or maybe it’s not better — maybe knowing you had the ability to play in the majors but were denied the opportunity by chance, or Fortuna, or whatever causes these things to happen is more painful.

Carson: There’s a scene in Shutter Island where Leonardo DiWhatshisbutt’s character is in a lake, and something bad has just happened. I won’t say what, exactly, but let’s just say it’s bad. And when this bad thing happens, we get a cut to a shot of DiCaprio from above. DiCaprio leans back, looks into the heavens, and yells, “Why God?!?” just like has happened in hundreds of other films. My wife and I looked at each other, like, “For real? Martin Scorsese thinks this is a good idea, this shot?”

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Buster Olney sent out the following messages on twitter last night:

From a rival high-ranking executive, about the D-Backs’ changes: “That is a brutal decision. They just tore apart one of the best front offices in baseball.”

Another GM on the D-Backs’ change at GM: “Absolutely crazy.”

That, essentially, was my reaction, as well, to the news that the Diamondbacks have fired Josh Byrnes. Yes, Arizona is in last place in the NL West, struggling through another tough year of disappointment. Since the start of last year, the D’backs have won just 42 percent of their games. It’s been a rough couple of years in the desert.

But, still, barring some kind of interpersonal communication problem or issue with ownership that we’re not aware of, this decision seems unjustified at best. As you can see from Olney’s quotes, Byrnes is one of the most respected men in the game, and this just seems like a massive overreaction.

Arizona’s problems this year are not hard to pinpoint. Their bullpen, as a group, has been a disaster, one reaching nearly epic proportions. Their relievers’ WPA total? -7.45. The Brewers have the next worst total, but come in at just -2.91. The D’Backs bullpen has been almost as harmful to their team’s chances of winning as the next three worst bullpens combined.

A bad bullpen is painful to watch, and few things are more frustrating than watching a lead evaporate at the end of a game. However, relievers are also the most fickle of all major league performers, and no amount of preparation and good management can insulate a team from a bullpen meltdown. As a group, the Arizona bullpen has thrown 205 innings. Over a sample that small, weird things can happen, such as usually relieable Chad Qualls posting a .452 BABIP.

What, exactly, should Byrnes have done to prevent this from happening? It’s not like they were abysmal a year ago and he should have seen this coming. No one could have seen this coming. And it’s not like hiring a new GM is going to make these guys pitch better. Sure, you could argue that perhaps he should have done a better job of building his bullpen, but is that really something you want to overhaul your front office over?

The team, as a whole, isn’t in bad shape, in large part due to some of the moves Byrnes has made. Their mostly young, cost-controlled position players have produced +11.7 WAR this year, fourth best in the National League. They’ve got a good young offensive core with Justin Upton, Chris Young, Mark Reynolds, Miguel Montero, Stephen Drew, and even Kelly Johnson, who was probably the bargain of the winter.

Pitching wise, they have some holes at the back end of the rotation, and obviously the bullpen needs an overhaul, but these are not hard fixes that require a change in organizational philosophy. This is not wholesale failure to develop talent and put good players on the field, like we see with other organizations who, it should be noted, have been far more patient with their GMs.

Someone asked me in a chat last week if I thought Arizona needed to make big changes, and I said no, that this had the look of a team that has a few tweaks and some better luck away from being able to challenge for the NL West title again. After firing their GM and putting their front office in limbo, I’m not so sure anymore. This has all the markings of a panic decision by a frustrated ownership group that may not be committed enough to building an organization the right way without overreacting to things that simply can’t be controlled.

Perhaps there’s more to this story, and Byrnes was fired for insubordination or something of the sort. We can’t know all the workings behind the decision, so I’ll withhold some judgment, but if this was truly a decision made because of the D’Backs’ record the last few years, then I think their ownership just royally screwed up.

When the Diamondbacks extended Josh Byrnes’ contract in February of 2008 through 2015 and included a small stake of team ownership, they probably didn’t envision firing him just two and a half years into the deal. Yet, per Bob Nightengale, that’s the case, as both Bynes and manager A.J. Hinch were axed.

Arizona is only 31-48, good for last place in the National League West, but they could be so much better without one of the worst bullpens in recent memory. Byrnes is responsible for assembling the unit, and boy, are they ever bad; collectively they hold a WPA of -7.45. That’s nearly five wins worse than the Milwaukee Brewers at -2.91. The 2007 Devil Rays set all kinds of notorious records and their bullpen’s WPA was -7.83.

Byrnes is also responsible for a number of good things, too. Like, acquiring Dan Haren, Adam Dunn, and Jon Rauch — as well as signing Kelly Johnson and Adam LaRoche. He’s also the guy who traded Carlos Quentin away and signed Eric Byrnes to an iffy extension, so not all he touched turned to gold. Prior to becoming the D-Backs’ general manager he worked within some mighty fine front offices, including Boston and Cleveland; and coincidentally Byrnes just finished second in Buster Olney’s polling of executives when asked what GM they would want to hire, with the notable quotable being:

Josh Byrnes, Diamondbacks (2) “I think he’s smart as hell, he’s well thought-out, and he’s a good person.”

Well, there’s some good news for that quoted general manager: he can now keep his job and have Byrnes in his front office.

When the Orioles acquired Joshua Bell (along with Steve Johnson) in exchange for George Sherrill, it seemed like a potential coup. At the time, Bell was 22 years old and mashing in Double-A to the tune of a .296/.386/.497 line. He stayed in Double-A upon joining the Orioles and continued his earth-scorching ways with a .298/.354/.579 line while hitting 9 homers in 127 plate appearances (he’d hit 11 in 391 with the Dodgers). Needless to say, the Sherrill deal looked a bit silly just months after it was made.

Fast forward to nearly a year later and Sherrill has only pitched 19 innings for the Dodgers this year, and they were horrible innings at that. Some of the shine has worn off Bell too, though, since at Triple-A Norfolk he only hit .266/.311/.455. He still flashed power, with an ISO just less than .190, but his walk-to-strikeout ratio worsened dramatically; from 0.62 last season to 0.24 this season. For perspective on how poor that number is, consider that Adam Jones – the Orioles centerfielder – is pretty horrendous at drawing walks and strikes out a moderate amount of time, and yet, his major league career walk-to-strikeout ratio is 0.24. Which is to say: Bell’s not winning any awards for leading the league in BB/K anytime soon.

Nevertheless, the Orioles promoted Bell today, following a Luke Scott injury. Bell has only played third base this season (along with some DH work) which clashes with the Orioles attempt to make Miguel Tejada into Cal Ripken Jr.; Tejada has started every game but one at third base for Baltimore since April 23. That’s 59 of 60 games and worth noting because Tejada is (A) 36 years old; and (B) hitting for a .307 wOBA. The O’s aren’t playing for a playoff spot … hell; they aren’t even playing for a crack at fourth place. What they are playing for is to mature some of the young talent and ensure the chance to take Anthony Rendon in next June’s draft.

Bell should get most of the starts at third as long as he’s around. The Orioles can always try him out in another corner if they really don’t see him as a major league caliber third baseman, but otherwise there’s no reason to trot Tejada out in the field only to have Bell DH. That plan simply doesn’t make sense for the present or the future.

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a post on a few pitchers that are new to Japan’s Central League. Judging by the response the post got, the names were a lot more interesting to me than anyone else, but I promised a Pacific League edition, and here it is.

Bill Murphy (LHP, Chiba Lotte Marines) — Lefty Murphy has been a success story this season: he started the season in the bullpen, where he did well, and was moved into the rotation where he won his first six decisions. He’s K’ing nearly a batter an inning and has been a reliable 6-7 inning starter for the surprising post-Bobby Marines.

Juan Morillo (RHP, Rakuten Golden Eagles) — “Explosive fastball, no command” was the book on Morillo in the US. It was more of the same in Japan at first, as four walks in his first five NPB innings earned him a trip to Rakuten’s farm team. He made a promising return after a month, striking out four in 2.2 innings, but left his May 23rd complaining of elbow discomfort after facing two batters, and hasn’t been heard from since.

Bobby Keppel (RHP, Nippon Ham Fighters) — Keppel has had the most success of all the new import pitchers in Japan this year, posting a 10-1 record and a 2.72 ERA. This is for a team that hasn’t had much success in the win column — Keppel is credited with 10 of the team’s 36 wins. So are we looking at the next Colby Lewis? Probably not. Lewis’s command of the strike zone really set him apart in Japan. Keppel hasn’t been nearly as impressive, with a 48/28 K:BB ratio in 86 innings pitched. Keppel also padded his numbers a bit in interleague games, which are over for this year.

Buddy Carlyle (RHP, Nippon Ham Fighters) — Carlyle is an interesting case, as he spent his age-23 and age-24 seasons in Japan with Hanshin back in 2001-02. After bouncing around Triple-A, the majors, and Korea for the last eight years, he’s back in Japan with Nippon Ham. This return engagement hasn’t gone well — 31 hits and 10 walks in 22.2 innings over four starts earned him a quick demotion, and he’s fared even worse at the minor league level with a 7.14 ERA.

By my count, four pitchers currenly on MLB rosters were under contract with NPB teams last season: Lewis, Scott Atchison, Brian Sweeney, and Chris Resop. Each took a different path back to MLB, so despite the varying results of the pitchers highlighted in this post, we could see some of these guys re-emerge in MLB.

Amazingly, Corresponding Points is not the name of a lightly produced PBS talk show from the 1980s. Rather, it’s an experiment with which we’ll be, uh, experimenting today.

The concept isn’t difficult: target one of the interweb’s better writers, ask him questions via email, and then re-print the emails in full to give the post that “raw” look everyone’s so into these days.

Today’s guest is Drew Fairservice. Because you frequent better blogs everywhere, you’ve almost definitely seen Mr. Fairservice’s work at Walk Off Walk and Ghostrunner on First (GROF), his Blue Jay-centric blog. Fairservice practices what he calls a “liberated fandom.” Is that some sorta Canadian BS, or an ethos we can all embrace?

Find out, in this edition of Corresponding Points!

From: Carson Cistulli
Sent: Tue, Jun 29, 2010 at 10:45 PM
To: Drew Fairservice
Subject: Hey, it’s Carson from FanGraphs

Drew,

At GROF, you recently wrote a post in which you looked at the watchability of four Blue Jay starters using our incredibly proprietary NERD metric. In said post — which, by the way, I totally didn’t find by googling my own name — you note how well the Jays in question come out by this measure. I wondered how the Jays’ top-four starters compared to those of other teams. If my calculations are correct, here’s the (awkwardly formatted) answer:

1. Boston (33): Tim Wakefield (10), Jon Lester (9), Josh Beckett (7), Clay Buchholz (7).

2. Colorado (32): Jorge de la Rosa (9), Ubaldo Jimenez (8), Jhoulys Chacin (8), Jason Hammel (7).

3. Philadelphia (31): Roy Halladay (10), Jamie Moyer (8), Cole Hamels (8), Joe Blanton (5).

4. L.A. Dodgers (30): Clayton Kershaw (8), Vicente Padilla (8), Hiroki Kuroda (7), John Ely (7).

T5. St. Louis (29): Adam Wainwright (8), Brad Penny (7), Jaime Garcia (7), Chris Carpenter (7).

T5. Minnesota (29): Francisco Liriano (10), Scott Baker (9), Carl Pavano (6), Kevin Slowey (4).

T5. Toronto (29): Brandon Morrow (8), Ricky Romero (8), Brett Cecil (7), Shaun Marcum (6).

A couple of observations. One, NERD isn’t infallible. I’m still not in love with Jamie Moyer getting an 8. I’m a fan of Moyer on a conceptual level, I guess — he’s 47 and throws his fastball at 81 mph — but I’m not sure I like watching him. C’est la frigging vie, right?

Two, the difference between Toronto and all the other teams on that list is that, for the Blue Jays, the playoffs aren’t really a thing. Cool Standings — which, I don’t know if their methodology is flawless, but it seems mostly smart — has Toronto’s odds of making the post-season at about 5%. The Dodgers are next-worst at 14%. Every other team on that list is above 20%.

Obviously, this has a lot to do with the division in which the Blue Jays do their balling. In another division — the NL Central, the NL West — the Blue Jays are very likely competitive.

I imagine this is only of some consolation to you. Fact is, any fan worth his salt — and when I say “salt” I mean that bangin’ Portuguese sea salt, not like the Morton iodized variety — any fan worth his salt wants to see his team winning as much as possible.

But I wonder: have those four pitchers — Morrow, Romero, Cecil, Marcum — have they made the season more watchable than the Jays’ place in the standings might otherwise suggest?

From: Drew Fairservice
Sent: Wed, Jun 30, 2010 at 6:53 AM
To: Carson Cistulli
Subject: Re: Hey, it’s Carson from FanGraphs

Consolation is old hat for Jays fans.

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For the Rays, Scott Kazmir was no longer worth the rotation spot or the money. Just over a year after signing him to a three-year, $28.5 million contract, which included a $13.5 million team option for 2012, the Rays found themselves all but out of contention in the AL East. Kazmir and his contract cleared waivers in August and the Rays used that opening to trade him to the Angels for Sean Rodriguez, Alex Torres, and Matt Sweeney. With the prospects in hand and payroll freed, the deal was a win for the Rays. Considering how well Kazmir pitched down the stretch for the Angels, they must have considered it a win, too.

Ten months later, however, the Angels probably have changed their opinion. While Kazmir showed signs of life in September, he failed them in October, giving up five runs against the Red Sox in Game 3 of the ALDS, a game the Angels eventually won in the late innings. He didn’t find much more success in his one ALCS start. The Yankees hit him up for four runs in four innings, leading to a 10-1 Angels loss. This year we’re seeing far more starts like that than like the ones Kazmir made in September.

Pick a number, any number, and you’ll see some real horrorshow stuff. His ERA, FIP, xFIP, and tERA all come in above the 5.00 mark, the ERA the worst of them all at 5.67. His strikeouts are down, 6.11 per nine, while his walks, 4.56 per nine, are back up to 2005 levels. At least then he could strike out hitters and keep the ball in the park. This year Kazmir has done neither particularly well. He’s also pitching fewer innings than ever, just 5.4 per game. While he’s never lasted long into games — his highest IP/GS rate was 6.1 in 2007 — 5.4 is a new low. Yet he’s still tossing an average of 101 pitches per start, which goes to show just how inefficient he’s been.

At home he’s been particularly bad, getting roughed up for 25 runs, 24 earned, in just 29.2 IP. Yet even on the road he’s been a mess, his walk rate over five per nine. While his road ERA is two and a half points below his home mark, that has a lot to do with the discrepancy in his strand rate, 74.4 percent on the road and 57.3 percent at home. That low home strand rate might be the one bright spot on his record.

A further problem is that teams are stacking their righties in the lineup. Of the 370 batters he’s faced this year, 301 have batted right-handed. He’s actually done a better job of striking out righties, whiffing 17.3 percent of them against just 4 percent of lefties. But he’s also walking righties more, which is a huge part of his problem this season.

It appeared as thought he might have turned things around to start June, as he allowed just six runs in four starts. Those results, however, are misleading. He still threw only 23 innings, or about 5.2 per start. In that span he struck out 15 to 13 walks. He was greatly aided by a .261 BABIP. So, predictably, when some of those balls in play started to drop for hits Kazmir again struggled. He’s allowed five runs in each of his last two starts, including last night against division-leading Texas, lasting just 8.1 innings. His strikeout-to-walk ratio: 6:4. His BABIP: .414.

The Angels, who trail the Rangers by 4.5 games in the AL West, have to do something about the two lefties in their rotation if they’re going to make a run at the division or the Wild Card (they’re 3.5 games back of the Red Sox). Joe Saunders has been every bit as bad as Kazmir this year, though he’s managed to keep a few more runs off the board. If any team could benefit from the addition of a pitcher, even a second-tier arm like Ben Sheets, Brett Myers, or Kevin Millwood, it’s the Angels. If they want to play catch-up in the second half they’re going to have to do something about Kazmir.