After Dave Cameron’s introduction yesterday, I wanted to take a brief minute to explain the purpose and goal of the Library for those that haven’t seen it before. And before I begin, thanks to everyone for the kind words yesterday about the Library.

The Saber Library was initially created around a year ago, in response to some criticism we’d received at DRaysBay. Many (most) of our columns there deal with advanced stats, like the work done here on FanGraphs, yet many readers were having a tough time accessing the information and learning about sabermetrics. We’d tried running a saber primer or two, yet those could never be comprehensive enough to cover everything that needed to be said. Readers wanted to learn, but didn’t have a place to go to do so.

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The last time the Houston Astros made the playoffs, they reached the World Series. That season was 2005, and their appearance in the fall classic was over almost before it started, as the Chicago White Sox swept the Astros behind one of the most dominant starting rotation performances in recent playoff memory. Since then, the Astros haven’t reached the playoffs, finishing under .500 three times. With what seems as one last grasp to maintain the memory of their mid-decade glory, the Astros signed the remaining holdover from the 2005 World Series squad, starter Wandy Rodriguez, to a three year, $34 million contract on Tuesday.

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This is the first post in a series about salary inflation in baseball.

If the gas station around the corner offered you a 10-year contract, wherein you could only buy gas from them, but the price would always be $3.00 a gallon, would you take it?

It sounds like a steal today, but only because you assume that gas prices will continue to rise and therefore $3.00 per gallon will be less than market value for most of the contract. But if gas prices unexpectedly fell, to say $1.50 per gallon, you would be paying double market value, and you are locked into it for the next decade.

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Mike Napoli is underrated. Relief pitchers are inherently overrated. We hold these truths to be (supposedly) self-evident. So why does today’s trade of Napoli for Frank Francisco look just as good for the Jays as it does for the Rangers?

Let’s start with the basics. Both players are slated for arbitration. Francisco has asked for $4.875 million, while Texas countered with $3.5 million. Napoli asked the Angels for $6.1 million, and was offered $5.3 million…before the trade that saddened America. The Rangers will reportedly send less than $1 million to the Jays. So if both players win their arbitration cases, the Jays figure to save something like $2 million.

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Did you hear that the Toronto Blue Jays traded Vernon Wells and his Massive Albatross Contract to the Angels? Probably. It has received plenty of commentary here and elsewhere, and that should be enough, but then someone asked Dave Cameron how the Angels’ trade for Wells was better or worse a move than the Giants notorious seven-year, $126 million contract with Barry Zito signed before the 2007 season. The Zito contract looked like a bad move at the time and pretty much everyone currently agrees that the Wells trade is, too. But the Nerdosphere demands an answer: which was the worse decision?

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While we’ve always been very proud of the quality and quantity of the statistics offered here on FanGraphs, we have never had a proper place to explain exactly what they all are, what they mean, how they’re calculated, and how they are best used. That’s why we’re extremely excited to announce the newest section of FanGraphs – The FanGraphs Library.

Steve Slowinski, creator of the excellent SABR Library, has agreed to come on staff and maintain the Library here on the site going forward. He’s created an in-depth resource that will serve as a place for explanation and education on all of the metrics we have here on the site, as well as many of the principles that we often refer to. He’s added some extremely fun tools to the pages, including calculators which will let you reproduce the metrics on your own, charts that show not only league averages for each metric but also the spread of those metrics from best to worst, and links to various explanations of how these metrics were conceived.

It’s really a fantastic resource, and one we’re thrilled to have on the site. Steve will be blogging both over at the Library and here on FanGraphs, and we’ll continue to update the Library going forward. We hope you enjoy using this resource as much as we’ve enjoyed bringing it to the site.

The FanGraphs Library

If you missed the first two parts, you can find them here and here. One quick clarification on scheduling from those first two pieces – I don’t think going back and resimulating seasons would be fair. It would be impossible to simulate added tension for games that may have taken on added importance thanks to different division rivalries. Pitching matchups may have changed based on the situation, guys that didn’t play hurt may have done so, etc. Furthermore, as one commenter pointed out, travel situations and other extraneous factors would change drastically as well. It is for this reason that I chose not to resimulate season results – there’s just no way to control for those variables. As for determining an optimal 162-game schedule, it’s clear that from the passion of the commenters and the complexity of the issue that that is a subject that deserves its own post at a later date.

Back to the topic at hand – what would the baseball landscape look like if each league went back to two divisions? Here’s how I laid out the new divisions in Part 1:
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Billy Beane has essentially divided his off-season into two parts. In the latter part he bought a couple of relievers to finish off an already strong bullpen. While that might have been the more curious part, it probably wasn’t the most helpful. In the first part of his off-season, however, Beane made upgrades to the offense, particularly in terms of power. The A’s certainly need the boost; the team produced a .122 ISO last season, third worst in the majors.

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Sometimes, having too many starting pitchers is a good problem to have, and the Cincinnati Reds appear to be stuck in this rut. While the Reds’ rotation won’t get much attention compared to that of other NL teams like the Phillies and the Giants, they should head into 2011 with a serviceable rotation.

Bronson Arroyo leads as the workhorse of the rotation, eclipsing the 200-inning mark every year since 2005. He also posted a 3.88 ERA and a 4.61 FIP with a low BABIP of .239 in 2010, aiding the low-strikeout ground-ball pitcher. A pair of 24-year-old righties in Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey are the first of the youth movement in the Reds’ rotation, both having pitched career seasons each with a sub-4.00 FIP. After recovering from Tommy John surgery, Edinson Volquez looks to return to the heart of the rotation and continue posting good strikeout rates.

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The Seattle Mariners
2010 MLB Record: 61-101 (4th, AL West)
Minor League Power Ranking: 16th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

1. Michael Pineda, RHP
Acquired: 2005 non-drafted free agent (Dominican Republic)
Pro Experience: 5 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: AA/AAA
Opening Day Age: 22
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.0

Notes: Pineda entered the 2010 season a little bit under the radar, thanks to an injury-filled ’09 season. But he quickly vaulted to the top of the club’s prospect list with a good showing at both double-A and triple-A. In double-A, Pineda managed a 2.16 FIP, while also showing the ability to miss bats (9.12 K/9). His control was outstanding, with a walk rate of 1.99 BB/9. His FIP jumped to 3.60 at triple-A but his strikeout rate jumped to 10.97 K/9 and he maintained his control. He did see his HR/9 rate jump from 0.12 to 1.30, but his ground-ball rates suggest there isn’t too much reason to be concerned; he should produce average ground-ball rates in the Majors and his home park will help keep fly balls in play. His repertoire includes a mid-90s fastball, slider, and changeup. Pineda’s delivery includes a long stride, a three-quarter arm slot and some effort. If he can continue to sharpen his changeup, he could develop into a No. 2 starter.

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