Gil Meche’s career appears to be over, a casualty of his shoulder injuries. The news comes a decade after Meche first went under the knife for his shoulder, having labrum surgery in 2001. It would take him until 2003 to make it back to the Majors. I bet that today is a rather bittersweet day for Meche, but that he made it back at all was a tremendous success for him. Sticking around for eight seasons and getting to land a giant paycheck is remarkable.

It’s not a surprise that Meche has run into further injury problems. Certainly one can question some of his usage patterns in 2009 as well. He never seemed to be the same after the complete game shutout against Arizona that took him 132 pitches to finish. Not that anyone should point to that as definitive proof of anything. Still, it is a sad way for it to end and only at 32 years old as well.

The ending of Gil Meche’s tenure with the Royals also provides an opportunity to look back on the contract that he signed with them after the 2006 season. At five years and $55 million, it was a stunner of a deal, a huge investment in a notoriously talent fickle pitcher with an extensive injury history. While Meche pitched superbly for Kansas City during the first two years of the deal, he fell apart after 2008 with –who could have guessed?—injuries.

According to our WAR and salary equations, Gil Meche amassed nearly $41 million worth of value in 2007-8. He seemed a lock to prove a great investment for Kansas City. The sad end to the story reminds us all that multi-year contracts require us to think about them over multiple years. The tendency is to remember only the deals signed over the most recent off-season. That is a large blind spot, especially since the likelihood is that due to health and age, a newly signed free agent will have his best season in the one immediately following his signing.

Remember to keep perspective on contracts that span multiple seasons. You never know when they will go off the rails. As for Meche, he ends his career with decidedly average career numbers, but for Mariner and Royal fans, he will not be soon relegated to the dustpan of forgettable players. He will always be present in my mind when I think of frustratingly talented pitchers who can just never seem to put it all together. Whether it’s because of his contract, his many injuries and comebacks, his tantalizing potential or his tragic end, Meche will be remembered.

Episode Fifty-Eight
In which the guests have some ideas of their own.

Headlines
A Brief Sketch of Adrian Beltre
Oakland’s Weird Relief Signings
Oakland’s Fantasy-Auction Strategy
… and other bon mots!

Featuring
Dave Cameron, Full-Time Employee
Jonah Keri, Part-Time Canadian

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 35 min play time.)

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It started with Bill Simmons’ annual NBA Trade Value column for ESPN.com. Dave Cameron picked up the baton for FanGraphs with his MLB Trade Value rankings. Breaking down the top commodities in each sport based on a combination of ability, age and contract status offers fun fodder for debate, and insight into what different teams have with their most valuable assets.

Feh! Too much nuance, I say.

The feeding frenzy already started over Albert Pujols’ potential free agency reminds us how rarely truly elite players hit the open market, and the raging demand that emerges at the slightest hint that a true superstar could become available. So what would happen, I wondered, if every player in baseball was declared a free agent tomorrow? Who would be the most sought-after player in the game?

Here are the ground rules. Every active player who has played a game in the major leagues is eligible. Every team has the same budget, and the same salary commitments (which is to say, none). Every ballpark has the same neutral dimensions. Leagues and divisions are abolished. Finally (and perhaps most importantly), every player would be a team’s to keep for the rest of his career.

Under those conditions, which player would be most in demand? In other words, who is the most valuable player in baseball, no conditions attached?

To find our answer, let’s use some process of elimination. Then tomorrow we’ll break down our top three candidates, and pick a winner.

(Note: We like short(er)-form writing here at FanGraphs, so a few of these may rival Bill James’ infamous “pass” on Jeff Bagwell for brevity and glibosity. That’s what the Comments section is for.)

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In trading for Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum this offseason, Milwaukee is primed to contend for the National League Central title. Those moves coupled with the decision not to trade impending free agent Prince Fielder show that the Brewers are all in for 2011. Whether that gamble will pay off in a World Series title depends largely on which versions of Fielder and Ryan Braun The Brewers next season.

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When the Twins acquired Matt Capps last summer, one of the selling points was that they weren’t just getting him for 2010; as a player with less than five years of service time, they had him under team control for 2011 as well. What they didn’t mention was that, as an arbitration eligible closer with fancy save numbers, he was going to cost them $7.1 million in salary for 2011, the number they agreed to give him today.

Matt Capps is a pretty good reliever, to be sure – his career K/BB ratio is 3.99, and he’s made a successful transition away from being an extreme flyball guy, helping get his home runs under control as well. However, even in this inflated market, $7 million for a not-quite-elite bullpen arm is a pretty good sized expense, and illustrates the point that we can’t simply look at “years of team control” and assume that they’re all of significant value to a team.

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When the Cubs acquired Tom Gorzelanny at the 2009 trade deadline he was little more than an afterthought. Their main target was lefty reliever John Grabow, who was in the midst of a decent season. But apparently the Pirates had seen enough of Gorzelanny’s inconsistency and made him part of the deal. Eighteen months and a quality season later, the Cubs have flipped Gorzelanny for a handsome profit.

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For the past four seasons, Jon Rauch has averaged exactly 1.0 WAR in value. A fly ball pitcher, his value is often determined by which side of the warning track his balls wind up on. Yesterday, the Toronto Blue Jays made him their latest free agent addition, signing him to a completely appropriate one-year deal worth $3.75 million. On the heels of the deals handed out to Rafael Soriano and Brian Fuentes, Rauch’s deal should be a bargain for the Jays, and along with Octavio Dotel, he gives them two sensible options at the back end of their pen.

Despite an uncharacteristically high .332 BABIP, Rauch had himself a nice little season in 2010. He posted a career high in FIP, HR/9, HR/FB, and saves. At first blush, it would seem that those first three stats were aided by Target Field, or as it may soon be known, PETCO North. While there’s probably a little truth to that, Rauch actually allowed a much higher OPS at home than he did on the road. Still, given Rauch’s normal rates, and the fact that Rogers Centre was so homeriffic last season, and that the Blue Jays play in the attack zone that is the AL East, a regression can be expected in 2011. Even with that caveat though, Rauch should be a good addition for the Jays.

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Yesterday, the Cubs traded superfluous lefty starter Tom Gorzelanny to the Nationals for two fringe prospects. Though the Nationals don’t look like a competitor in a tough National League East in the upcoming season, the move, coupled with other moves by the team, does seem to suggest that there’s a near-term destination in mind for the team in our nation’s capital.

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Sandy Alderson appears to have found his fourth outfielder. On Friday, the Mets agreed to a minor league contract with Willie Harris, who played his last two season with the Washington Nationals. Although Harris struggled mightily in 2010, he should be a solid backup to Jason Bay, Carlos Beltran, and Angel Pagan next season.

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After picking up Matt Garza from Tampa Bay, the Cubs were widely expected to trade Tom Gorzelanny in order to free up a spot in the rotation for their newly acquired starter. Today, that expectation became reality, as they shipped Gorzelanny to the Nationals for a trio of prospects. What are the Nationals getting in Gorzelanny?

To be honest, I have no idea. He’s one of the most confusing pitchers in the game.

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