Last week, Craig Calcaterra pointed us to a great conversation between Mike Ferrin and Rangers’ Assistant General Manager Thad Levine on Sirius XM. Though Levine couched the news within some considerable caveats (“Probably there’s a little bit more onus now on him really wowing us in spring training to inspire the move”), the general point was that wunderkind closer Neftali Feliz would get the chance to start in spring training.

Should rotisserie managers switch Feliz over to their starters’ cheat sheet? Should Rangers’ fanatics begin dreaming of Feliz shutouts and checking out available relievers for possible mid-season pick up? Probably not. As you drill down into what Feliz truly represents, there’s little out there in terms of comparative players. It might be a problem of definition, so let’s get that part right.

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The Cleveland Indians
2010 MLB Record: 69-93 (fourth place, AL Central)
Minor League Power Ranking: 12th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

1. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B
Acquired: 2008 1st round (North Carolina JC)
Pro Experience: 3 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: AA
Opening Day Age: 22
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.5

Notes: I personally see Chisenhall as more of a solid regular contributor at the hot corner than a true star. He had a nice double-A season in 2010 by hitting .278/.351/.450 in 460 at-bats. His power has been respectable throughout his minor league career. He posted a .216 ISO rate in high-A in ’09 but it slipped to .172 in ’10. Chisenhall does a nice job of hitting with pop while making solid contact and his strikeout rate was below 20% at double-A. He has an upright stance and takes just a short stride. Chisenhall’s swing is simple and repeatable. I don’t see impact bat speed – it’s still a tick above average – and there is a little upper cut to his swing. I don’t foresee Chisenhall making a significant contribution at the big league level in 2011 but he could be ready to step in as the starter at the beginning of 2012.

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In his submission to Top of the Order, a collection of 25 tributes to 25 writers’ favorite players, former Salon and current Bleacher Report sporting columnist King Kaufman (@king_kaufman) celebrates the contributions of Neifi Perez to his (i.e. Kaufman’s) enjoyment of this great and honored game.

Kaufman notes that, while he’s certainly been critical of Perez in the past — in fact, inventing a metric, the Neifi Index, which measures a player’s ability to contribute to his team’s success by expressly not playing — it’s ultimately Perez who helped him realize how good even the worst Major Leaguer is.

Kaufman writes:

The worst player in the major leagues is a hell of a ballplayer.

The worst player in the history of the major leagues, whoever he was, was a hell of a ballplayer.

Neifi Perez was a hell of a ballplayer.

It’s only in the context of the major leagues that the guy with the lifetime OPS of .672 is oh-my-gosh-is-he-playing-again awful.

You see this if you ever watch big-league pitchers, who struggle to hit .100, take batting practice. They drill line drives all over the place. They’re the guys in your muni softball league who hit balls over the houses across the street from the park and everyone says, “He must have played pro ball.”

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After my initial post on Matt Cain’s HR/FB rate last week, Rory Paap responded with his own thoughts at his blog. We ended up trading emails about the subject, and the result was 3,000 words and the observation that inspired my post this afternoon. We figured you guys might also be interested in the rest of the discussion as well, so I’m posting the relevant parts here.

DC: What is Cain doing to cause his low HR/FB rate? Location, movement or something else?

RP: The honest answer here is: I have no idea. I suspect it has something to do with his fastball, being that’s the pitch he leans heavily on, but I’m not sure. It seems intuitive, to me at least, that the way his fastball moves could be a factor. Perhaps it’s the fact that it sinks less than as expected, as Dave has hypothesized. I also think there’s a strong possibility he’s very good at placing a high fastball where he wants to in the strike zone. I think if anyone knew for sure what he was doing specifically, we’d probably not be having this discussion.

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If you ever get frustrated that your favorite team can’t seem to sign any free agents, just think about the poor fans of the Mystery Team, the perpetual Miss Havisham of the free-agent market. Just when you thought Mystery Team was finally going to seal the deal with Vladimir Guerrero (to whom they totally had offered $8 million), the Baltimore Orioles, like the vicious birds of prey from whom they take their name, swooped in and flew away with the allegedly-very-much-in-demand and soon-to-be-36-year-old designated hitter. Maybe next time, Mystery Fans… But what about those crafty Orioles, huh?

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With the Super Bowl over and pitchers and catchers reporting in a week, baseball season is finally in sight. For me one of the most interesting parts of the offseason is the Fans projections. I think they offer an incredible collection of information on what the crowd thinks about the coming year. As the offseason transition to spring training I wanted to take stock of these projections.

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An arbitration hearing is basically a fancy performance review – few want to do it, few want to hear about it besides your friends and family and someone is bound to leave angry, and as a result, some teams will avoid it at all costs. Nonetheless, arbitration is important for the whole industry. The fact that comparable players form the basis of the system makes each and every case important. And since cases that go to a hearing make for the best comps, and comps are only relevant for a short time, each and every case that goes to a hearing has the potential to set precedent.

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The Rangers and the Rockies started talking about Michael Young at the Winter Meetings. It appears that, two months later, they’re on the verge of a deal. As reported by FoxSports.com, “a deal could be in place as soon as Monday.” That’s today. In many ways a swap makes sense. Young wants out of Texas and the Rockies would welcome an upgrade at second base. But there’s much more to consider here, and the non-performance aspects of the deal might make it an unworthy one for Colorado.

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By popular demand, we’re rolling out a weekly chat with Jonah. He’ll be hanging out and talking baseball (and other things) every Monday at noon. Make sure to ask him about New York bagels, which he’s a huge fan of..

Last week, when I suggested that history showed that pitchers with low HR/FB rates, even over long stretches of time, weren’t able to sustain those marks going forward, one of the more popular responses was that Cain is simply unique. There are theories about his fastball movement, his location, or simply a decision on his part to trade fewer home runs for more walks by not leaving pitches over the heart of the plate, even in hitter’s counts. The more I look into this, though, the less it seems likely that Cain’s low HR/FB rate is something unique to him, and more likely that it’s something unique to the organization for which he plays.

Since 2002, Cain does have the lowest HR/FB ratio of any starting pitcher with at least 500 innings pitched in the big leagues. Fourth on that list? Tim Lincecum. Ninth? Jason Schmidt. 17th? Noah Lowry. 22nd? Barry Zito. Russ Ortiz is 37th and Kirk Rueter is 39th, which means that seven of the top 39 pitchers on the list have thrown a significant amount of innings during that time frame for San Francisco.

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