Archive for March, 2011

Should the Phillies Sign Luis Castillo?

The news that the Mets had released Luis Castillo this morning was hardly a shock, as it has been speculated on for months now – neither side was particularly happy with the marriage, and the Mets decided that having him around just wasn’t worth the drama. As the old saying goes, however, one man’s trash is another man’s treasure, and Ruben Amaro should take the opportunity to bring Castillo to Philadelphia.

With Chase Utley showing minimal improvement and looking likely to begin the year on the disabled list, the Phillies have at least a temporary hole at second base. Wilson Valdez is slated to get first crack at the opening, but while Valdez might have posted better numbers than Castillo last year, they’re essentially two versions of the same player, but Castillo is likely the superior option of the two.

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Is Matt Dominguez the Answer?

Despite the fact that he’s never played above AA ball, Matt Dominguez is the favorite to open the season as the starting third baseman for the Florida Marlins. Typically, a prospect that claims a starting job at such a young age is regarded as one of the strongest prospects in all of baseball. This, however, is not necessarily the case for Dominguez. Although Marc Hulet rated Dominguez as the Marlins’ top prospect coming into the 2011 season, Dominguez ranked 81st on Baseball America’s top prospect list. The Marlins’ aggressive promotion schedule with Dominguez is definitely a risky proposition considering his inexperience. 

Dominguez spent the entire 2010 season in AA, and, while promising, his performance left a lot of room for growth. In 577 plate appearances, Dominguez managed to hit .252/.333/.411, not exactly a performance that warrants such an aggressive promotion. The most troubling aspect of Dominguez’s minor league numbers is his elevated strikeout rate. Over the course of his minor league career, Dominguez has struck out once in every six plate appearances.

If Dominguez is exposed to major league pitching this season, his strikeout rate could balloon to astronomical heights. Thankfully, Dominguez has shown patience over his career, and could balance out his poor average with a strong walk rate. In 32 at-bats this Spring, Dominguez has hit .219/.324/.438, which probably isn’t a far cry from the batting line he would post during the upcoming season (higher average, but lower on-base and slugging percentages). Dominguez, however, is regarded as one of the best defensive third baseman in the minors, and should be able to gather a decent amount of value from his glove. Those skills might be enough to push him above the replacement level this season.

Still, the Marlins run the risk of ruining Dominguez if he flops at the major league level. If he struggles to raise his average above the Mendoza line and starts to press, his confidence could take a huge hit. The problem is, the Marlins don’t really have any better options at the position.

Neither Wes Helms nor Emilio Bonifacio inspire much confidence as starters. While their offensive performances could come close to matching Dominguez’s skill set, Helms and Bonifacio wouldn’t come close to matching Dominguez’s defensive value. If we dismiss those players from contention, we are left with Omar Infante and Chris Coghlan.

As Joe Pawlikowski recently explained, the Marlins could choose to alter their lineup due to the versatility of Coghlan and Infante. Both players have limited experience at third base throughout their careers, and it would be tough to predict how they would perform defensively at the position. Neither player profiles as an ideal hitter at third base, but both would probably churn out a more consistent offensive performance than Dominguez.

That said, the Marlins seem pretty committed to starting Infante at second and Coghlan in center. Based on all the buzz surrounding Dominguez this Spring, it looks like he’s going to win the job at third base. While some will suggest Coghlan or Infante be moved to other positions, it’s hard to argue with installing Dominguez at third. The cupboard is pretty bare for the Marlins at the position, and Dominguez is the only strongest option they have. He should provide the strongest defense of the bunch, and might hit just enough to justify the promotion. The Marlins are taking a significant risk with the move, however, and it’s now up to Dominguez to learn how to hit major league pitching on the fly. If he can’t, the Marlins have no one else to turn to this season.


Ng Disappointed at Lack of Women in MLB

We’ve seen a lot of changes in baseball in the last few decades, but more than a half-century after the end of the All-American Girls Professional Baseball League, the sport still often feels like an old boy’s club. In 2011, we’re seeing mixed signals pointing forward. Kim Ng, the highest-ranking baseball executive for nearly a decade, Assistant General Manager of the Yankees and then the Dodgers, recently accepted a job to work for Joe Torre as the Senior Vice President for Baseball Operations in the Commissioner’s office of Major League Baseball. And Justine Siegal, the first woman to coach a professional men’s baseball team — the 2009 Brockton Rox in Brockton, MA, unaffiliated with MLB or MiLB — this year became the first woman to throw batting practice in Major League spring training.

Every time a woman does something for the first time, it makes it easier for others to follow in their footsteps. “Things are definitely changing, but it’s slow,” says Siegal. “And that’s why the only way to keep my sanity is not to look at this experience for me as for the next generation coming up, paving the way. And that’s frustrating when we want the job.” The trouble is, there aren’t many women in the next levels of baseball. “I’m a little surprised that we haven’t seen more women come up in entry-level positions through the ranks, at this point in time,” Ng told me. “My only hope is that women do get recognized, and that we can put some programs in place to really at least get women into the system.”
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Where Might Chris Davis End Up?

With Opening Day nearing, Chris Davis is staring at the prospect of a fourth stint in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League. Mitch Moreland is the favorite to win the Rangers’ first base job. Mike Napoli will get some DH starts along with Michael Young, who was booted off third base when Adrian Beltre signed. It’s possible that Young is shipped elsewhere, but the three years and $48 remaining on his contract make that unlikely unless Texas includes lots of cash or Nolan Ryan treats a rival GM like Robin Ventura, applying a vice-like headlock and shouting, “eat the contract!”

If he’s destined for Round Rock, Davis told Tim MacMahon of ESPNDallas.com that he’d prefer the Rangers to let him get a fresh start in a new organization:

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What Would Wainwright Get on the Open Market?

John Mozeliak is a liar. Either that, or he has a sharp sense of humor. According to SI’s Jon Heyman, Mozeliak “hasn’t thought about” whether he’ll pick up Adam Wainwright‘s two-year, $21 million option. Bull. While he does have other things on his mind, including the strength of the 2011 Cardinals and Albert Pujols’s impending free agency, the future of Adam Wainwright concerns him greatly. The only way his statement makes sense is if he meant that he “hasn’t thought about it” as a play on the term no-brainer. Because, really, the decision of whether to exercise Wainwright’s options takes little thought.

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Is Scott Rolen Famous Enough For Cooperstown?

Among many fun conversations I had while in Arizona last week, perhaps the most interesting involved a topic I’d been thinking about for a while – Scott Rolen’s chances of getting elected to the Hall Of Fame. Rolen’s 12th on the list of career WAR by third baseman with +71.6, and that kind of total is generally good enough to get you elected. Given that he’s still reasonably productive and should have a few more years to add value, I think Rolen has a really strong case for election.

But if we change the question from “should Rolen get in?” to “will Rolen get in?”, the story changes quite a bit. Whether right or wrong, BBWAA voters still lean heavily on the results of seasonal awards, and Rolen has not been a guy that has done all that well in those categories. He’s made only six all-star games in 14 seasons and only finished in the top 25 in MVP voting four times, topping out at fourth in 2004 – the only year he cracked the top 10. Despite some excellent seasons, Rolen’s skillset is generally undervalued and he has spent most of his career with teams who haven’t made the postseason. Because he never posted eye-popping offensive numbers, he was easy to overlook, and that’s basically what happened.

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Frankie Piliere FanGraphs Chat – 3/17/11

We’re happy to introduce the newest member of the FanGraphs staff, and host of our new weekly Thursday prospects chat – Frankie Piliere. Frankie worked as a scout for the Texas Rangers and then moved into a prominent role covering prospects for AOL FanHouse. He’ll be talking prospects here each week, as well as filing reports on players as the season gets started. Please welcome Frankie to the site.


Was 2010 The Year of the Rookie?

Looking back to last season, it’s easy to be struck with the embarrassment of riches that was the crop of rookie talent. Particularly in the National League, where Mike Stanton and Jason Heyward gave us tantalizing glimpses into the future, it seemed that youth ruled the day. Some have even hung the moniker “Year of the Rookie” on 2010. Have they done so appropriately?

If we cull the list of first-year position players to those that put in more than 150 At-Bats and put up better than a 105 OPS+, we’ve got a list of rookies that outperformed the general playing field enough to raise eyebrows. The players that stepped forward last year – other than Stanton and Heyward – were Carlos Santana, Logan Morrison, Danny Valencia, Ike Davis, Jon Jay and Pedro Alvarez. Though the list is a little uneven, even the worst of the group could easily become strong regulars on good teams.

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The ‘Aughts’ at a Glance: 2000-2009 Superlatives

Even since Dark Overlord Dave Appelman updated the FanGraphs leaderboards to allow multi-year analyses, I’ve been meaning to do something fun with them.  The feature lends itself well to answering questions with a large scope, like: who’s been the best first baseman over the last five seasons? What team has had the best bullpen over the last three seasons? What’s the highest single-season strikeout rate any starting pitcher has had over the last ten years? The possibilities are nearly endless.

While this feature obviously has analytical purposes, I feel it has a larger, much more important use: trivia! As pointless as inane baseball statistics can be, what baseball fan doesn’t love their trivia? It’s something we all grew up with, as you can’t escape digesting large amount of pointless facts if you watch or listen to baseball, and I’ve found that even the most ardent statheads love a bit of mindless fun every now and then. Numbers don’t always have to mean something; sometimes, it’s enough for them to merely provide a chuckle or a shake of the head.

So let’s use this amazing multi-year leaderboard to take a look back through time. What sort of fun superlatives will we find if we flip open the yearbook to The Aughts (2000-2009)?

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Texas Is Boring, or Why Nelson Cruz Is Underhyped

Time for a classic Neyer-ism. Who are these two players?

From 2008 to 2010

Player A: .315/.372/.542, 139 wRC+, 378 games, 1640 PA, 13.1 WAR
Player B: .292/.350/.555, 139 wRC+, 267 games, 1093 PA, 10.3 WAR

I’m sure at least one or both are pretty easy, given the title of this piece. Player A is The Greatest Hero in American History for Some Reason Josh Hamilton, and Player B is Hamilton’s fellow-outfielder-and-Ranger, the titular Nelson Cruz. On a per-PA basis, one could argue that Cruz has actually been better than Hamilton (2010’s American League Most Valuable Player) over the last three seasons. But if you look through the archives here at FanGraphs, there is little written specifically about Cruz other than some (complimentary) mentions in fantasy positional reviews or in this silly post from about a year ago. Why is that?

After thinking about it, I’ve come to an explanation: the Texas Rangers have become boring.

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