It makes me shudder to think how the Braves outfield would have performed in 2010 if they hadn’t broken camp with Jason Heyward in right. He was far and away the team’s best outfielder, producing 5.0 WAR in 623 PA. The other seven Braves outfielders combined for 0.3 WAR. Thanks to some offseason maneuvers, the Braves can count on better production in 2011.
These days it’s common place to look at multiple defensive metrics to try and get a good grasp of a player’s defensive value. On FanGraphs we even carry four different defensive metrics that include Mitchel Lichtman’s UZR, Sean Smith’s Total Zone (with Location), John Dewan’s DRS, and Tangotiger’s Fan’s Scouting Report.
All of them have different methodologies and the four rely on three different data sources.
To make comparing the four easier, there is now a new stats table on the player pages called “Aggregate Defensive Ratings” (ADR), where the UZR, DRS, TZL, and FSR are given a weighted average and there’s even a standard deviation and standard error given for the sample of four defensive metrics.
The general weighting is 1/3/3/3 for FSR/UZR/TZL/DRS. For years where FSR is not available, UZR, DRS, and TZL are weighted evenly. Only players with more than 50 innings played at a position are included in ADR.
ADR stats are available in all the player pages and will be making their way to the leaderboards soon.
The 2011 Marlins possess two distinct characteristics: youth and flexibility. Yet they might have taken that idea a step too far this winter when they named former NL Rookie of the Year Award winner Chris Coghlan the starting center fielder. While Coghlan has experience in the outfield, he has never played center as a professional, and his defensive numbers in left field have been below average. It makes me wonder if they made the move to ensure future flexibility.
The headline never reads “Pitcher to visit Dr. Andrews for scones, afternoon tea.” No, it’s always “Pitcher to visit Dr. Andrews to discover what the heck is going on inside his elbow.” Or something in that vein. The latest victim booking a ticket to Birmingham is Andrew Bailey…again. And while Bailey may never be the same if he needs a second Tommy John surgery (though that piece is a bit dated, and Bailey does have youth on his side), the more immediate concern for the A’s is how their bullpen shakes out in the aftermath of his latest misfortune. While Bailey is among the game’s better closers, the A’s spent the winter preparing for such a scenario, and are equipped to handle his loss, as they have at least five pitchers capable of handling closer duties.
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Beginning next week, we will be rolling out our 2011 Organizational Rankings, and due to a reaction that we’ll just refer to as “popular demand”, we’ve revamped the system and are doing them a bit differently this year. Last year, you guys asked for a system that is a bit less subjective than what we had done previously, and since we’re into objective measures around here, that seemed like a perfectly natural request. So, this time around, we’re going with a model that weights what we consider to be the four main variables to a franchise’s success, resulting in a final tally.
Of course, the model is being designed by humans, so there is still room for subjectivity in the results. After all, we all likelyhave differing opinions on the relative weights that should be assigned to each variable, and those weights would likely become a new target of angst for those who disagreed with the final outcome for one team or another. So, in the spirit of the Wisdom Of Crowds, you guys are going to help decide the weightings for each of the four identified variables.
The four categories are as follows.
Two men, one position. The spring training meme is at least as old as spring training itself, and yet is it a really real thing? If we believe in the merits of large sample sizes – and we do here – why would we forget that approach when the teams head south for spring? Perhaps this idea of the positional battle is overblown.
The momentum working through the media is that the Mariners are handing the fifth starter job to prospect Michael Pineda unless he bombs over the remainder of Spring Training. The reasons for doing revolve around Pineda being the team’s best option for that spot, the team not wanting to hurt their relationship with Pineda down the line, and the team not wanting blowback from the union or other players.
A year of Major League service time takes 172 days on the roster to achieve and no player can earn more than one full service year per season. That means if a player such as Michael Pineda spends 171 days on the Major League roster in any season from 2011 through 2016 and 172 or more in the other five seasons, he will end the 2016 season with 5 years and 171 days of service time, making him not a free agent until after the following year.
Long stretches of losing baseball can have devastating tolls on MLB teams. Perhaps none knows this better than the Pirates. The team hasn’t finished above .500 since Barry Bonds left after the 1992 season, and the futility has predictably dampened attendance. In the past seven seasons the team hasn’t finished better than 27th in the league in attendance. That necessarily means less revenue, which means that the Pirates have to play a different economic game than most of the league. This comes into play with their longest-tenured pitcher, Paul Maholm.
The Milwaukee Brewers’ acquisition of Zack Greinke shocked the baseball world this off-season. Although the Brewers gave up two of their projected starters, many pundits thought the move made the Brewers the class of the NL Central. While it was easy to overlook the players the Brewers dealt, they’ve left themselves awfully thin at some key positions. As a result of the trade, both Yuniesky Betancourt and Carlos Gomez vault into starting roles. Combine that with the fact that Jonathan Lucroy is still adjusting to major league pitching, and you have potential for replacement-level performances at three positions. Even with all the off-season acquisitions, are the Brewers strong enough to overcome their weakest players?
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