Toronto really is the dark horse candidate in the vaunted American League East division. The club will face an uphill battle for division supremacy against the likes of Boston, New York and Tampa Bay. But each club has its weaknesses, so a fourth or fifth place finish for the Canadian club is not guaranteed. New manager John Farrell is a bit of a wild card. Fans of the team have no idea what to expect from the first-time manager. The strength of the team appears to be its pitching, so the former big league hurler and pitching coach should be the right man for the job.

Read the rest of this entry »

FanGraphs was well represented at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, as this intrepid reporter trailed Daves Appelman and Cameron through the halls of the Boston Convention and Exposition Center in Boston this weekend. Unfortunately, baseball in general was not as well represented as it could have been. Maybe that’s not surprising for a conference started by Daryl Morey, GM of the Rockets, and scheduled during the beginning of spring training.

The baseball highlight of the conference – other than some question-spawning research projects about featuring eight starting pitchers or refining pitch-type values – was the Baseball Analytics panel. On the panel, moderated by SBN baseball editor Rob Neyer, were Sportvision Director of Baseball Products Greg Moore, Red Sox Director of Baseball Information Services Tom Tippett, San Diego Padres Vice President of Strategy and Business Analysis John Abbamondi, Arizona Diamondbacks Scout Joe Bohringer, and noted Author and Roustabout Jonah Keri. Strong group.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last summer, Stephen Strasburg put the Nationals into the spotlight every time he took the hill, bringing attention to a franchise that has been forgettable since their move to Washington D.C. Strasburg’s injury took away their star attraction, however, so Mike Rizzo decided to make a big splash this winter in order to try and retain his franchises newfound relevancy. Will it work? Let’s start by evaluating the team’s everyday players.

The Starting Line-Up

1. Nyjer Morgan*, CF
2. Ian Desmond, SS
3. Jayson Werth, RF
4. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B
5. Adam LaRoche*, 1B
6. Rick Ankiel*/Mike Morse, LF
7. Ivan Rodriguez, C
8. Danny Espinosa, 2B

Read the rest of this entry »

Longtime sabermetric favorite Gregg Zaun, the sometime “Practically Perfect Backup Catcher” (who would have made a pretty good starter for many teams), announced (or will announce, depending on the timing relative to this post) his retirement today. Zaun had played 16 seasons in the major leagues, and had actually put up above-average offense (very good for a catcher) the last two seasons (103 and 105 wRC+, respectively), but after coming back from injury to sign a minor-league deal with the Padres, decided that he just didn’t have the desire to play anymore.

Apparently he didn’t get the memo from Jason Kendall that aging catchers are supposed to linger on years after they were useful in order to keep teams from being tempted to play younger players. Maybe Zaun decided he didn’t fit the Kendall mode, given that he actually might still be able to contribute to a team: ZiPS projected Zaun to hit .255/.341/.403 in 2011. Perhaps Zaun finally realized that one must put up barriers to keep oneself intact.

Indeed, using this methodology for relating player performance to league average, Zaun turns out to be almost exactly average for his career. Instead of reciting easily looked-up stats (summary: Zaun was a slightly below-average defensive catcher who made up for it with good on-base skills), perhaps a more interesting tribute to Zaun (other than the awesome flash intro to his website) would be to rank his five most valuable offensive plays by Win Probability Added (WPA). Get ready to Bring Your Z-Game!

Read the rest of this entry »

After suffering through five straight seasons of 90+ losses, this off season was an exciting time to be an Orioles fan. While the O’s front office has remained relatively quiet over the past few winters, preferring to let their young talent develop, this year the Orioles starting making moves as if they were a contender. Derrek Lee and Vladamir Guerrero were added on one year deals for around $7-8M each.  Defensive wiz J.J. Hardy and masher Mark Reynolds were acquired in trades. Kevin Gregg, Jeremy Accardo, and Justin Duchscherer were signed to help shore up the pitching staff. It was an off season full of movement and action.

But the skeptic in me isn’t sure what to think. Sure, the Orioles have improved their team in the short term, but to what end? When competing in a division with the Yankees and Red Sox, does it matter if you win 79 games as opposed to 69? Did the Orioles improve their long-term competitiveness, or were these moves the product of a frustrated ownership that wants to win now?

The Projected Starting Nine

2B Brian Roberts
RF Nick Markakis
1B Derrek Lee
DH Vladimir Guerrero
LF Luke Scott
3B Mark Reynolds
CF Adam Jones
C Matt Wieters
SS J.J. Hardy

Read the rest of this entry »

They’re the only team in the league for which a mere ALCS appearance represents a disappointment. The Yankees fell six victories short of their goal, but went into the off-season with a bit of confidence. A bona fide ace, Cliff Lee, was on the market, and Yankee dollars would surely lure him to the South Bronx. When that plan backfired, the off-season was immediately deemed a disappointment. Yet the Yankees again return one of the strongest teams in the league for 2011.

The Starting Nine

Read the rest of this entry »

The Philadelphia Phillies offensive depth was already going to be thin this season. That was before Domonic Brown broke the hamate bone on his right wrist Saturday afternoon. And while there’s an argument that this might have been a good thing in the long run for Brown, and that the Phillies may not suffer much of a drop-off from Brown to Ben Francisco, the injury will seriously test the Phillies’ already thin depth.
Read the rest of this entry »

One of the more compelling story lines for any team in the spring is the battle, whether faux or real, for the final rotation spots. We often see teams set up battles among youngsters and veterans to foster a sense of competition — that is, so that they take nothing for granted. What we don’t often see is a team’s second best pitcher without a guaranteed rotation spot. Yet that is happening in the Chicago camp. Early in the spring we learned that Randy Wells was not guaranteed a role in the rotation, but was instead in a battle with the likes of Braden Looper and Todd Wellemeyer for two open spots. The perception of a battle continues into March, which makes it even more baffling.

Read the rest of this entry »

When looking at Matt Thornton’s career with the Chicago White Sox, it’s hard to believe he was acquired for Joe Borchard. Both players had fallen out of favor with their teams at the time of the trade, and both have since gone in very different directions. Under the tutelage of Don Cooper, Matt Thornton has blossomed into one of the best relievers in the game. While Bobby Jenks was the most recognizable name in the White Sox bullpen, Thornton has been the better pitcher over the last three seasons. Thornton’s dominance hasn’t gone unnoticed by the White Sox, who signed him to a two-year, $12 million extension Sunday. Despite his age, Thornton has yet to show any signs of decline, making this contract a huge win for the White Sox.
Read the rest of this entry »