Johnny Damon’s case for the Hall of Fame has recently come up (again). Indeed, some people seem to think it is time to start discussing which hat he should be wearing for his induction. My initial response is “he’s been good, but not good enough,” but hey, I’ve been wrong before. Many times. While the voters have made some progress in recent years, they aren’t exactly known for their objectivity or consistency. What the voters will do with Johnny Damon is one question, one that involves stuff like history and folk psychology, things I’m not interested in dealing with here. Instead, I want to address what the voters should do in Damon’s case.

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When you’re sitting on top of the world, it’s sometimes easy to overlook the flaws. The Cleveland Indians, at 14-8, currently own the AL’s best record and lead their division by 2.5 games. While we’re a long way from anointing them 2011’s surprise team, they certainly have impressed to this point. Their 5.18 runs per game actually ranks second in the AL (though only a hundredth of a point ahead of Texas). Yet amid all that, they haven’t yet clicked on all cylinders. That’s because Carlos Santana has gotten off to something of a slow start. But there are plenty of indications that his approach will pay off in the long run.

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A visual representation of Jose Bautista’s slash stats.

This edition of One Night Only contains:

1. Expanded previews for three games: Cincinnati at Milwaukee, Kansas City at Cleveland, and Toronto at Texas.

2. NERD Game Scores™ for every one of tonight’s games.

3. Some unkempt thoughts regarding Kool Keith’s oeuvre.

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Note: This is the last TMA of the week, as I’ll be out of town until Monday.

And the fans in New York already hate Soriano.

White Sox 3, Yankees 2

Moving the Needle: Paul Konerko turns a deficit into a lead, +.420 WPA. The whole plan of having a closer in the setup role hasn’t worked out too well for the Yankees so far. Rafael Soriano had another rough outing, this time blowing a 2-1 lead in the eighth on the Konerko homer, a no-doubter out to left. Soriano has made 11 appearances for the Yankees, but has only a single 1-2-3 inning. The Yankees did make some noise in the ninth, but Brent Lillibridge made a pair of stellar catches to save the game. If he misses either the Yankees at least tie it.

Notables

Brett Gardner: 1 for 3, 1 HR. In a game full of offensive utility, a homer from Gardner, his second in four days, is going to make the notables.

Gavin Floyd: 8 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 10 K, 2 HR. Just domination, through and through. The Sox pitching has apparently spread the team’s offensive utility to the Yankees.

Also in this issue: Angels 8, A’s 3 | Diamondbacks 7, Phillies 5 | Orioles 4, Red Sox 1 | Rockies 4, Cubs 3 | Indians 9, Royals 4 | Marlins 4, Dodgers 2 | Mariners 7, Tigers 3 | Astros 6, Cardinals 5 | Brewers 3, Reds 2 | Blue Jays 10, Rangers 3 | Mets 6, Nationals 4 | Giants 3, Pirates 2 | Braves 8, Padres 2

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We took a look at some key prospects belonging to clubs in the National League West. This week we’ll take a look at top prospects and sleepers for clubs in the National League Central.

Cincinnati Reds

Dave Sappelt continues to make a case for a MLB role. The outfielder has posted some eye-catching numbers including his 2011 triple-A triple-slash line: .356/.405/.603 in 73 at-bats. The club has a lot of offensive depth at triple-A with catcher Devin Mesoraco, first baseman Yonder Alonso, as well as The Man Without a Position Todd Frazier. In double-A, the club has first baseman Neftali Soto, a personal favorite of mine. He has raw power and a quick bat but he needs to have a more patient approach at the plate to realize his potential at upper levels. Reliever Brad Boxberger is throwing well and could see Major League action before the end of the season if he can tighten up his control. After a solid amateur career, it looks like injuries have taken their toll on pitcher Dallas Buck; he’s struggling again at double-A. Reds 2010 first and second round draft picks (Yasmani Grandal and Ryan LaMarre) are both in high-A Bakersfield, where the ball has been scorched. Grandal is hitting well (1.208 OPS) but LaMarre has struggled (.638). Second baseman Henry Rodriguez doesn’t have a huge ceiling but he can definitely hit for average. Big-time Dominican investments Juan Duran and Yorman Rodriguez are off to slow starts in low-A ball but are still young and full of potential. Billy Hamilton continues to run like the devil’s chasing him (14-for-18 in steals in 17 games).

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If you google “Peter Bourjos” “can’t hit”, you’ll get 3,040 results. There aren’t actually that many articles about the inadequacies of Bourjos’ offensive abilities, but there are a lot of them. After the Angels called up Bourjos last year and installed him in center field, he did little to dispel the notion that he was a defensive wizard who wouldn’t be able to hit his weight – his 2010 UZR was off the charts (+34.7 UZR/150 in about half of a season), but his .273 wOBA was awful, just as had been expected based on the scouting reports. There just aren’t that many blazing fast leadoff types who can make the skillset work without patience or contact ability, and Bourjos hasn’t shown either as a professional.

However, I’m wondering if we’ve underestimated Bourjos’ offensive abilities to date. Yes, he’s an impatient hack who relies heavily on his speed, but when you look at the types of hits he actually does get, the Juan Pierre comparisons fall apart.

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The Minnesota Twins are generally criticized for being too conservative. But this season, they have shown a bit of early-season panic. First, Joe Nathan was granted his wish of being removed from the closer role two weeks into the season, and now manager Ron Gardenhire has decided to fill his vacancy at second base with a guy who hasn’t played there in six years.
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In yesterday’s One Night Only Carson Cistulli observed that Matt Garza is throwing his two-seam fastball, slider, and changeup about twice as often this year as previously — making him entirely different pitcher. Pitch F/x-guru and Cubs-fan Harry Pavlidis, with his own reclassifications of the Pitch F/x data, came to Carson’s aid and found that Garza is indeed throwing more sliders and changeups, but not any more two-seam fastballs. There are improvements in the Pitch F/x’s internal classification system during the offseason and that is probably responsible for the shift Carson saw in two-seam fastball frequency.
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Here’s the full-league wOBA leader board, set to a minimum 50 PA. On this you will see few surprises. We know that Jose Bautista , Ryan Braun, Alex Rodriguez, and company are off to hot starts. We also have heard plenty about unexpected contributors such as Jed Lowrie and Russell Martin . In fact, only one name really stands out in this top 10.

Click for larger

Of course, if you read the headline you know which one I’m talking about. Kosuke Fukudome with a .483 wOBA? Well that was unexpected.

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