Pitchers can succeed without striking batters out, but a failure to whiff shifts more of the burden to the defense. Based on what we know about pitchers and their controllable skills, limiting the number of balls in play increases the likelihood of a good outing. Strikeouts might not guarantee an out due to the dropped third strike rule, but they result in outs virtually 99 percent of the time.

Successful pitching lines lacking strikeouts are strange to the eyes. They’re even stranger when high-strikeout hurlers post them. You’d think a pitcher like Colby Lewis could easily record one punchout in seven innings of work, but in a May 10 start, he held the Athletics to one run over 7 1/3 innings. And he didn’t record a strikeout.

In honor of Lewis’ odd line — 7 1/3 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 0 K — I decided to research two items: the best non-strikeout games in the Retrosheet era, and the highest percentage of non-strikeout starts in a season.

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To say that Matt LaPorta disappointed in his first 623 professional plate appearances would be to grossly understate the expectations for him. He was, after all, a two-time Southeastern Conference player of the year with Florida, and then went seventh overall in the draft to a team that already had a budding superstar at the position. Baseball America described his power as game-changing and noted that he “can drive the ball out of the park to all fields when he gets his arms extended.” It’s understandable, then, why he was the centerpiece of the CC Sabathia deal, and why he figured to be Cleveland’s first baseman of the future.

While he has shown significant improvement this season, he still hasn’t put everything together. At age 26, it’s looking less and less likely that he will. It doesn’t preclude him from becoming a useful player, but his window to superstardom is open only a crack, if at all.

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The news has it that John Lackey is headed to the disabled list to find what he has lost or let his elbow strain heal, whichever version you believe. Headed back into the rotation is the 45-year-old Kid ’66, Tim Wakefield. It seems like the simple, every-day transaction that a contending team has to go through in the course of a season. For the player, though, there are interesting possible ramifications for the move.

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As is the case every season, a couple dozen new players made their way to Japan this year. Some guys swim, others sink. Let’s check in with a couple notable players and see how they’re doing in Japan so far.

* all stats prior to game action on May 17, 2011 JST.

We’re doing great!

Wladimir Balentien (OF, Yakult Swallows) — Unquestionably the biggest early success story, Balentien has feasted on Japanese pitching to the tune of .386/.485/.916. The first and last items of that slash line lead the Central League, while the middle one is .001 behind leader Jun Hirose. Balentien’s 13 home runs are five more than the #2 man, Alex Ramirez.

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It’s only May 17th, but for the Minnesota Twins, the 2011 season is essentially over. Losers of nine straight, they now stand just 12-27 and are 13 1/2 games behind the first place Indians. They’ve been atrocious at nearly every aspect of the game; they rank last in wOBA and last in xFIP, a pretty awful combination. Even the eventual return of Joe Mauer won’t be enough to right the ship – there are just too many problems to overcome to save this season, and the Twins need to start playing for 2012 and beyond.

The problem is that I’m not sure how much they can actually do. For most teams, when they fall out of the race they promote youngsters from the farm and put the veterans on the trade block to try and add a few prospects to the organization. The Twins don’t really have all that much in the way of interesting assets to sell off, though.

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Guess the amount of percent that Roy Oswalt is planning to give this evening.

This edition of One Night Only contains:

1. Expanded previews for three games: Chicago (NL) at Cincinnati, Philadelphia at St. Louis, and San Diego at Arizona.

2. Pitcher and Team NERD scores for every one of tonight’s games (using the highly experimental and dangerous pitcher-heavy method discussed recently).

3. Plops.

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These are poses of men who know this game is ovah.

Red Sox 8, Orioles 7

Moving the Needle: Adrian Gonzalez caps the comeback with a double +.648 WPA. Last year was something of a blip. Boston went 9-9 against Baltimore after years of dominance (including 16-2 in 2009). Baltimore took the first series of the year two games to one, which meant that the Red Sox were, in the most fallacious way, due. The Orioles took a 6-0 lead, but in the bottom of the sixth the Red Sox rallied for five. They then traded a pair in the seventh before Boston made its final move in the ninth. Kevin Gregg walked both Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia, and then served up a fat one for Gonzalez, who launched one off the monster and brought them both around.

Notables

Kevin Youkilis: 2 for 4, 2 2B, 1 BB. That’s two doubles and two homers in his last four games. Also, each of the Red Sox first seven hitters drew a walk in the game.

Vladimir Guerrero: 3 for 5, 2 2B. He’s 11 for his last 25 with five doubles and, gasp, a walk. Reports of his demise, greatly exaggerated, etc.

Also in this issue: Padres 8, Diamondbacks 4 | Rangers 4, White Sox 0 | Braves 3, Astros 2 | Blue Jays 4, Tigers 2 | Reds 7, Cubs 4 | Indians 19, Royals 1 | Rockies 7, Giants 4 | A’s 5, Angels 4 | Brewers 2, Dodgers 1 | Twins 5, Mariners 2 | Nationals 4, Pirates 2 | Rays 6, Yankees 5 | Marlins 2, Mets 1 | Cardinals 3, Phillies 1

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Last August, with the New York Yankees in the middle of a pennant race, Curtis Granderson made an extremely questionable decision. Fed up with his futility against lefties, Granderson decided to completely revamp his swing. The decision carried a considerable amount of risk, since few hitters are able to completely retool their swing on the fly. Since that fateful day in August, Granderson’s performance against lefties has improved markedly. After last night’s home run against David Price, it’s time to take a closer look at Granderson’s transformation.
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This past week, we saw some great research introduced on when the standings actually start to matter. It showed that the really great and really bad teams don’t really shake out until June, so despite the fact that the bottom five teams have been identical in each of the power rankings’ first three weeks, there is still time for one of those teams to escape the bottom of the pack. In our third week, teams are starting to make bigger jumps in the standings. In week two, only two teams moved three or more places from week one. This week that number was seven, with three teams (the Angels, Rangers and Twins) dropping at least five spots.

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