There’s been some talk that the San Francisco Giants are having internal discussions about trading for Jose Reyes this year. At first blush, it makes sense – the Giants are trying to get back to the promised land and are starting second baseman Mike Fontenot at shorstop (moving zombie Miguel Tejada to third for now), and the Mets are languishing at the bottom of a tough division. And yet, it’s not likely – the Giants aren’t actually a great fit.

Let’s address the idea of timing first. There’s a delicate balance between building toward the future and ensuring that fans still come to the park and are still interested in the Mets this year. It’s a tight rope that may be hardest to walk in large media markets. Trade Reyes now, and the story immediately becomes next year, and what the team is doing for the future. That story, that conversation, is not one that brings butts to the ballpark – especially Reyes-jersey-wearing-butts. Trading him now would hurt the team now.

Read the rest of this entry »

It hasn’t been as heavily covered as it was last year (the Year Of The Pitcher, if you hadn’t heard), but run scoring in baseball is down again. The sport as a whole is averaging just 4.26 runs per game, down from last year’s 4.38 R/G, and way down from 2009’s 4.61 R/G. Run scoring is often lowest in April, so as the days get warmer, we’ll probably see a rise in offensive performance, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the final season offense marks looked similar to what they were last year.

However, it seems pretty clear that we’re not headed for a return to the days where it took five runs to win a game and every team had six or seven guys who could hit the ball out of the park. The game is just lower scoring now than it was even a few years ago, and that means we need to continue to shift our expectations of what “good” numbers are.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s backwards and hilarious.

This edition of One Night Only contains:

1. Expanded previews for three games: Florida at St. Louis, Cleveland at Oakland, and Colorado at Arizona.

2. Shorter, but no less charming, previews for three more games: Houston at Cincinnati, New York (AL) at Detroit, and Milwaukee at Atlanta.

3. Pitcher and Team NERD scores for every one of tonight’s games.

4. More bullet points than meet the eye.

5. More other things than meet the eye, too.

Read the rest of this entry »

Honestly, this is the definitive moment of the game. Hat tip to Dustin Parkes at The Score.

Moving the Needle: Jacoby Ellsbury ties the game in the ninth, +.417 WPA. If you’re going to watch an archived game, or even a condensed game, may I suggest this one. It had a little bit of everything. On the downside, it had rain. But there was more than enough upside. The Red Sox didn’t pick up their first hit until the seventh inning, while neither team scored until the top half of that inning. The Angels took a 3-1 lead into the ninth and blew it, and a crazy play factored in heavily. And then there was some extra inning gold. I think I need another paragraph to describe it.

A walk and a hit by pitch were Ervin Santana’s only blemishes through four innings. Unfortunately for him, the rains came to Boston and they had a lengthy delay, far too long to even consider putting him back in. That left the job to Rich Thompson, who pitched two hitless innings of his own. But with one out in the seventh, then facing Scott Downs, Jed Lowrie picked up a single. Nothing came of it, but something did the next inning when Jason Varitek doubled off of Fernando Rodney. Oops. Adrian Gonzalez knocked him in, cutting the lead to one. The Angels added one in the ninth, which they really, really ended up needing.

Lowrie walks to open the ninth, and Mike Cameron singles him to second. Here’s where reading the play-by-play might not fully explain everything. Jordan Walden delivered a pitch in the dirt, and Hank Conger couldn’t keep it in front of him. The runners tried to advance, and Alberto Callapso couldn’t handle the throw. It kicked off him and towards Erik Aybar at short. Lowrie took off for home and would make it easily, but the same couldn’t be said for Cameron. The Angels cut him down at third, leading to the largest negative WPA swing of the game, -.221 (because even though a run scored they needed another one and now had no runners on with only two outs remaining).

Carl Crawford, who was at bat during this fiasco, ended up doubling and then scoring on Ellsbury’s single. In extras the Red Sox had the walk-off run in scoring position in both the 10th and the 12th, but failed to bring him home. That opened the door for the Angels in the 13th, as they loaded the bases for Bobby Abreu, who singled past a diving Dustin Pedroia and put his team ahead by two.

I don’t do this a lot, but this was seriously worth the effort.

Notables

Ervin Santana: 4 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 K. Of all the starts to get shut down by rain.

Hank Conger: 3 for 4, 1 2B, 1 BB. On base four times and he neither scored nor drove in a run.

Daniel Bard: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K. Some nice relief work to keep the game knotted at zero.

Also in this issue: Rockies 6, Diamondbacks 4 | Twins 3, White Sox 2 | Braves 8, Brewers 3 | Braves 8, Brewers 0 | Tigers 4, Yankees 0 | Orioles 3, Royals 2 | Reds 3, Astros 2 | A’s 3, Indians 1 | Cubs 5, Dodgers 1 | Rangers 5, Mariners 2 | Giants 2, Mets 0 | Blue Jays 3, Rays 2 | Phillies 7, Nationals 4 | Marlins 8, Cardinals 7 | Pirates 7, Padres 4

Read the rest of this entry »

The Milwaukee Brewers entered the 2011 season with some of the biggest expectations in team history. Behind a strong 1-2 punch of Zack Greinke and Yovani Gallardo (not to mention Shaun Marcum), the team finally had a pitching staff strong enough to match their offense. Things haven’t gone exactly as planned for the Brewers, however. Greinke made his first start for the team last night, while Gallardo has struggled in seven starts. While Greinke should be fine as long as he’s healthy, it’s tough to pinpoint whether Gallardo will turn things around this season.
Read the rest of this entry »

Today, we wrap up our look back at the 2008 amateur draft for the American League. Click for the previous reports on the AL West and AL Central. The National League clubs are up next, led by the National League West.

The first three rounds are listed for each team, plus any other above-slot signees.
(X = Signed to Over-Slot Deal; S = Supplemental Round; DNS = Did Not Sign)

The New York Yankees
1st. Gerrit Cole, RHP, California HS (DNS)
1S. Jeremy Bleich, LHP, Stanford
2nd. Scott Bittle, RHP, Mississippi (DNS)
3rd. David Adams, 2B, Virginia
6thx – Brett Marshall, RHP, Texas HS
7thx – Kyle Higashioka, C, California HS
9thx – Michael O’Brien, RHP, Virginia HS
10thx – D.J. Mitchell, RHP, Clemson
15thx – Matt Richardson, RHP, Florida HS
27thx – Garrison Lassiter, SS, North Carolina HS

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s never too early to start wildly speculating about the MLB trade deadline. In the past three years, we’ve seen big names like Cliff Lee, Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn and Jason Bay switch teams for the stretch run. The mere sliver of a chance that a walk-year Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder might get dealt if their teams falter will trigger the sexiest trade talk. But more likely scenarios will involve players one tier down, who could be meaningful contributors for contending teams.

Players like Jason Marquis.

Read the rest of this entry »

Chicago Cubs’ pitcher Ryan Dempster might have thrown seven innings of one-run baseball last night, but some uncomfortable questions still linger for the former 17-game winner and staff ace.

With his latest outing — his first quality start this season — Dempster has an unimpressive 8.05 ERA and 1-3 record. These being the end-all statistics for most Cubs fans, it’s easy for Cubs fans to see what’s wrong with Dempster: He’s terrible.

Kidding. In truth, a little investa-magation helps us understand what’s really happening to the Cubs’ resident jokester.
Read the rest of this entry »

After being treated like a hot potato by the Cardinals, Athletics, Phillies, and Blue Jays, Brett Wallace has finally found a home in Houston. He reached the majors last year and now sits upon the first base throne vacated by Lance Berkman at last year’s trade deadline. Through the first month of 2011, Wallace has a .383/.448/.543 triple-slash line that would make even the Puma proud. Wallace clearly isn’t this good — his line is heavily supported by a .466 BABIP — but that doesn’t mean we should just ignore it. Instead, let’s learn from the small sample and see what it can tell us about his performance moving forward.

Read the rest of this entry »

[Alt: “Uggla’s Stick,” “Dan’s Uggla Stick”]

When the Atlanta Braves moved Marvin Prado to left field in order to make room at second base for Dan Uggla, whom they signed to a five-year, $62 million extension, this is obviously not what they had in mind. Prado (27) is currently hitting .252/.292/.370 (77wRC+) on the season, and Uggla (31) is chugging along at a robust .209/.266/.391 (73 wRC+). Prado’s problems are easy enough to explain by way of the pool of toxic waste in Turner’s left-center field — the same one that mangled the careers of Nate McLouth and Melky Cabrera. But what’s going on with Uggla? Is this simply a small-sample slump, or should the team be worried?

Read the rest of this entry »