New York Mets owner Fred Wilpon has had a hell of a week. First, he gave two eye-raising interviews that appeared in the last few days (both are dated to print magazines that will appear on May 30): one with the New Yorker’s Jeffrey Toobin and one with Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci. The Toobin interview painted Wilpon as a kind, trusting, earthy guy who got suckered by Bernie Madoff and dearly loved baseball, yet who wasn’t above criticizing his own players, calling himself a “schmuck” for overpaying Carlos Beltran, or telling former GM Omar Minaya he was “full of shit.” Then, just today, he announced that he was selling a $200 million stake in the team to David Einhorn, a hedge fund manager.

The Toobin interview had more colorful language, but Sports Illustrated had the real bombshells: Wilpon admitted that the Mets could lose up to $70 million this year and that the team will likely be shedding a lot of salary, with $64 million coming off the books this offseason. Writes Verducci: “They will not put much, if any, of that money back into the major league payroll.” When Wilpon’s comments came to light, as the New York Daily News reported, Mets manager Terry Collins tried to clear the air with the team: “Don’t get (bleeping) distracted. We’ve got to (bleeping) focus on winning (bleeping) games.”
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In the first part of this mini-series, we investigated Raul Ibanez. We looked at the issues the Phillies have to consider when debating his future role with the club this season. With legitimate prospects coming up behind him, the main dichotomy at play was a question of the risk and upside of a young player versus the predictability and downside of a veteran.

In the case of Daisuke Matsuzaka in Boston, the issues at play are slightly different. The options behind him are worse, and the extracurricular risks might be more dire. In the end, though, the answer could be similar. Once Matsuzaka is healthy again, is he still the best option in the rotation?

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By now, surely you’ve seen the bad news for San Francisco: standout young catcher Buster Posey suffered a left leg injury (assumed to be a broken left ankle and torn ligaments) as a result of a collision with Marlins outfielder Scott Cousins in last night’s game. The injury appears to be season ending, leaving the Giants without one of the best catchers — and players — in the game.

Even though the 24-year-old Posey hadn’t completely hit his stride yet, with a meager .389 slugging percentage, he was still productive for the Giants. His .368 on-base percentage represented a marked improvement over last season’s .351 mark, and his 113 wRC+ ranked fourth among qualified catchers. Throw in his significant defensive contributions — 15 CS against 27 SB, a solid 36% rate — and Posey’s 1.8 WAR ranks only behind Rusell Martin’s 2.0.

According to ZiPS, Posey was primed to get back to last year’s numbers, a .366 wOBA and roughly 4.0 WAR over the latter four months of the season. Replacing that kind of production is nearly impossible; it becomes even harder from the catcher position, as very few players will be available and the internal options are less than impressive. Eli Whiteside will crouch behind the dish for San Francisco today, and the Giants can only hope he can improve on his career .283 wOBA. ZiPS is not confident, projecting a .281 wOBA. Such a mark would place Whiteside marginally above replacement level over 300 or so plate appearances. Thus, it seems fair to say Posey’s injury looks to cost the Giants somewhere between three and four wins without some sort of move for a replacement catcher.

The Giants currently hold a 2.5 game lead on Arizona, a team which will likely regress, and a three game lead on their real competitor, Colorado. According to Baseball Prospectus’s playoff odds, the Giants entered today with an 86.3% chance at the playoffs, including 82.8% odds of winning the NL West. Those odds, however, assume the Giants are a .564 true winning percentage team, or just over a 91-win team. Without Posey, the Giants’ would then be closer to an 86-win true talent team, or a .531 true winning percentage team.

Even with that adjustment, the Giants project as slightly better than Colorado (.525 according to BP) going forward, largely thanks to the tremendous ability of San Francisco’s pitching staff. The Giants will remain favorites by a decent margin, but instead of winning the division 8 out of 9 times, it will be more like 5 or 6. For example, the Cardinals have a .010 expected winning percentage lead on Milwaukee and a 2.5 game lead in the division, and are division winners 66% of the time.

There is still time for the Giants to pick up a worthy replacement for Posey, but given the scarcity at the catcher position, a match may be difficult to find. In the current situation, the Colorado Rockies once again have hope, despite their horrid month of May. Luckily for San Francisco, they built up a head start with Posey. It’s enough of a head start for San Francisco to retain their position as favorites, but chances are the race in the NL West will be tight down the stretch.

I’m not the first person to say this today, and I’m sure I won’t be the last, but it’s hard to watch the collision at home plate last night that broke Buster Posey’s leg and think anything besides “that should not be part of baseball.”

Let’s set aside blame for a second; I’m not here to vilify Scott Cousins, the player’s association, or the rules committee. Cousins did what he’s been trained to do, he did it because it’s a legal play by the rulebook, and he was trying to help his team win a baseball game. However, I just don’t see any reason why that play should be allowed in the sport.

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For years now, the Houston Astros organization has been a constant cellar dweller in terms of player development. But now things are on the upside in Houston. The club boasts one of the most prospect laden teams in minor league baseball with the low-A Lexington Legends. The club boasts five players from the organization’s Top 10 Prospects list, as well as a sleeper prospect found behind the dish.

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James Loney is having a horrible start to the 2011 season. His wRC+ of 58 is by far the lowest of his career and is the seventh worst in the league. That kind of performance from first basemen is unacceptable. But the Los Angeles Dodgers have started him in every one of their 51 games this year (@truebluela notes that Loney has started in the past 120 Dodgers games). With Loney at first for the foreseeable future it is important to see what are the causes of his problems.

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Milwaukee’s Betancourt: Most likely not a human vessel for evil.

This edition of One Night Only contains:

1. Expanded previews for two games: Cincinnati at Philadelphia and Chicago (AL) at Toronto.

2. Pitcher and Team NERD scores for every one of tonight’s games (using the highly experimental and dangerous pitcher-heavy method discussed recently).

3. All of the –ologies put together.

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I think I’m like most baseball fans in that when I think of a designated hitter, I think of home runs. The DH spot has usually been filled by power hitters since its inception in 1973, and that makes sense. If a player is playing a position with no defensive value, he needs to produce on offense. Home runs are the most valuable offensive event. The most valuable hitters in any given year usually have plenty of home runs and extra base hits. One often hears that a player who doesn’t hit for power doesn’t have the bat to play on the “easy end” of the defensive spectrum, and and even moreso in the case of a player who is primarily a DH. Billy Butler is a current example of a player who mostly fills the DH spot, but since he hasn’t hit for much power (yet), you will sometimes hear people say that he doesn’t fit the profile of a DH. Without focusing specifically on Butler, I’d like to write briefly about what it means to “hit well enough to be DH,” and then to see how often that actually happens with a relatively low amount of power.

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It is, quite literally, a new ballgame.

Phillies 5, Reds 4

Moving the Needle: Ryan Howard matches Jay Bruce with an extra innings homer, +.440. It’s kind of disappointing to have a game go to 19 innings, and the walk-off hit doesn’t even top the WPA chart. Of course, it’s the same story we see in many other walk-off situations: the Phillies had loaded the bases with one out, and a sac fly won it. Their biggest boost came in the bottom of the 10th, when, trailing 4-3 thanks to a Bruce homer in the top of the inning, Howard blasted one out to center. Little did they know that they’d essentially play another full game after that.

Notables

Jay Bruce: 3 for 8, 1 HR, 3 RBI. The surge continues.

Ben Francisco: 1 for 4, 1 HR. His first-inning two-run homer made it feel as though Philly would run away with this one, especially with Halladay on the mound.

Also in this issue: Angels 4, A’s 1 | Mets 7, Cubs 4 | Orioles 9, Royals 2 | Diamondbacks 2, Rockies 1 | Red Sox 14, Indians 2 | Astros 2, Dodgers 1 | Mariners 3, Twins 0 | Brewers 6, Nationals 4 | Yankees 7, Blue Jays 3 | Rangers 2, White Sox 1 | Braves 4, Pirates 2 | Padres 3, Cardinals 1 | Marlins 7, Giants 6

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