After a slow first month of the season – in which he hit .237/.306/.381 – Jay Bruce is absolutely on fire in the month of May. Even though Joe Pawlikowski recently wrote about the difficulty involved in evaluating Bruce’s season, we’re going to take a deeper look into Bruce’s current surge. During the month of May, Bruce has hit .337/.400/.721 with 9 home runs. There’s no doubt that Bruce has been spectacular as of late, but what (if anything) is behind Bruce’s latest surge, and is it sustainable?
Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, the great Mitchel Lichtmen gave us a look into how FanGraphs’ latest toy, Ultimate Base Running (UBR). This nifty base-running stat is now on the player pages and a part of WAR. As Dave Appleman noted, UBR (or Bsr, short for base running, on the player pages) has a rather small effect (though not insignificant) on a player’s WAR.

Although small on a player level, UBR (henceforth called Bsr) does help us spot organizational trends, identifying which teams prioritize bag-dashing and the like. Unsurprisingly, the relationship between base running and runs scored is not very meaningful. This should make sense because base running is great, but teams cannot run the bases if they are not getting on base — and they cannot run the bases if they clap a homer.

Looking at the MLB through the 2002 and 2011 seasons, we encounter more than one surprise:
Read the rest of this entry »

Every year around this time, the cries grow louder for teams to call up top prospects from the minors. Sluggers are raking, pitchers are dealing, yet fans don’t get to see their team’s best young players at the major league level. We can thank the dreaded Super Two rule of salary arbitration eligibility for that.

The good news is that Major League Baseball is, if you believe the rumors, possibly considering scrapping or at least reforming the Super Two rule this offseason, as part of the next round of collective bargaining with the players union. Some teams are operating as if the rule will go away. For instance, Kansas City Royals General Manager Dayton Moore sits on MLB’s Rules committee, and he had no qualms about calling up top prospects Eric Hosmer and Danny Duffy before the likely Super 2 cutoff date. The Seattle Mariners didn’t look like contenders at the start of the season, but M’s GM Jack Zduriencik called up stud starter Michael Pineda anyway, to great results.

Still, many teams are carrying on as if the rule won’t change, in the process holding back players who by most objective standards should be playing in the big leagues.

Here are four of the top position players prospects we’re watching, how their absence is affecting the big club, and when we might expect to see them crack the majors.

Read the rest of this entry »

I’m sure I’m not alone in the fact that I immediately head for the leaderboards as soon as we here at FanGraphs (or at any other excellent statistics site, of course) adds a new statistic. I am probably also not alone in the sense that the first thing I look for on these leaderboards are the oddities, the unexpected leaders or trailers. On the new Ultimate Base Running leaderboards that we recently added, I’m just not seeing too many surprises.

First, the leaders:

Nate McLouth, +2.8
Alex Rios, +2.8
Melky Cabrera, +2.7
Alexei Ramirez, +2.5
Alex Gordon, +2.4
Aaron Rowand, +2.2
Brian Roberts, +2.2
Danny Espinosa, +2.2
Michael Bourn, +2.1
Ichiro Suzuki, +2.1

I would be surprised to see Bourn and Suzuki not on this list; Ramirez, Rios, Roberts, Rowand, Espinosa, and McLouth all make some sense, as they have speed and a history of at least decent SB numbers. The two Royals on the list, Gordon and Cabrera, come as slight surprises to me. Nothing ever suggested that Gordon was the fleetest of foot, and Cabrera isn’t exactly in peak physical condition. Perhaps if they were above average, it would be understandable, but I am surprised they are in the top 10 in the entire league so far. Maybe it’s some of that gritty Dayton Moore baseball?

Now, the trailers:

Paul Konerko, -4.4
Casey McGehee, -4.1
Brett Wallace, -4.0
Chipper Jones, -3.6
David Ortiz, -2.8
Ryan Howard, -2.8
Aramis Ramirez, -2.5
Alfonso Soriano, -2.4
Adrian Gonzalez, -2.1
Yadier Molina, -2.1

Even fewer surprises here. This list is almost entirely populated by corner infielders, with only one catcher (Molina) and one outfielder (Soriano), and of course the DH in Ortiz. I would have expected more catchers on this list, although I suspect they aren’t receiving enough playing time (or reaching base enough) to compile enough negative baserunning events. Of these players, I think the only one I’m surprised to see here is Soriano, but at 35 it isn’t too shocking that his prior baserunning prowess (+3.9 career, and +7.9 in 2002-2004, the first three years of UBR) has diminished.

It has been said that a good metric will mostly confirm what you know, although with a few surprises here and there. At least looking at 2011 UBR so far, our new baserunning metric appears to satisfy that statement.

It seemed unlikely that the Mets would be the center of baseball attention any time during the 2011 season. They made a splash by hiring Sandy Alderson and his cast of familiar faces to run the front office, but they made mostly small moves this winter, knowing that the pieces just weren’t there to contend. The biggest buzz most of us expected was a potential Jose Reyes trade, and even then the buzz would be Reyes, not necessarily the entire Mets team.

That changed, of course, when this week’s New Yorker dropped on Monday morning. Within its pages team owner Fred Wilpon was quoted as saying some less than flattering things about his team and its players. As if that weren’t enough, the latest issue of Sports Illustrated also features and article about Wilpon, in which he talks about the team’s financial woes. They’re taking losses, and while they have money coming off the books this winter they might not be able to reinvest all of it. That might make things tougher for the 2012 team as well.

The Mets did get some good news, though, that can perhaps inspire optimism for the coming off-season and even 2012. According to ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin, injured ace Johan Santana threw off a full mound on Monday, for the first time since he struck out Omar Infante on September 2, 2010. His return this season could help the Mets considerably.

Read the rest of this entry »

Atlanta’s Mike Major (né Minor) starts in place of Tim Hudson this afternoon.

This edition of One Night Only contains:

1. Expanded previews for three games (two of which begin momentarily): Atlanta at Pittsburgh, Washington at Milwaukee, and Cincinnati at Philadelphia.

2. Pitcher and Team NERD scores for every one of tonight’s games.

3. Weather-related action video!

Read the rest of this entry »

Kickin’ up some chalk.

Brewers 7, Nationals 6

Moving the Needle: Jonathan Lucroy gives the Brewers the lead in the eighth, +.550 WPA. A little inside-out swing is all it took. Lucroy’s bloop hit the foul line and, to the Brewers’ benefit, did not bounce into the stands. It allowed the trail runner, Brandon Boggs, to score. The throw actually beat him, but Wilson Ramos could not hang on. That put the Brewers up 7-6, and John Axford would come on to save the win. Lucroy also hit a solo homer in the game.

Notables

Corey Hart: 2 for 4, 1 HR. That’s four homers in two days for Hart. He’s just a bit better fit in the two-hole than Carlos Gomez.

Mike Morse: 3 for 5, 1 2B, 1 HR. Nothing much really to say; it’s been kind of a blah season for Morse.

Also in this issue: A’s 6, Angels 1 | Cubs 11, Mets 1 | Orioles 5, Royals 3 | Rockies 12, Diamondbacks 4 | Diamondbacks 5, Rockies 2 | Red Sox 4, Indians 2 | Tigers 7, Rays 6 | Dodgers 5, Astros 4 | Twins 4, Mariners 2 | Yankees 5, Blue Jays 4 | Reds 6, Phillies 3 | White Sox 8, Rangers 6 | Braves 2, Pirates 0 | Cardinals 3, Padres 2 | Marlins 5, Giants 1

Read the rest of this entry »

Base running linear weights or base running runs, or Ultimate Base Running (UBR), is similar to the outfield arm portion of UZR. Whatever credit (positive or negative) is given to an outfielder based on a runner hold, advance, or kill on a batted ball is also given in reverse to the runner (or runners). There are some plays that a runner is given credit (again plus or minus) for that do not involve an outfielder, such as being safe or out going from first to second on a ground ball to the infield, or advancing, remaining, or being thrown out going from second to third on a ground ball to SS or 3B.

Runs are awarded to base runners in the same way they are rewarded to outfielders on “arm” plays. The average run value in terms of the base/out state is subtracted from the actual run value (also in terms of the resultant base/out state) on a particular play where a base runner is involved. The result of the subtraction is the run value awarded to the base runner on that play.

Read the rest of this entry »

From the start, Jay Bruce has done just what every fan wants to see from a young player who just signed a contract extension. He started out on fire, going 15 for his first 30, with three doubles and four homers. Of course, a .500/.531/1.000 line wouldn’t last forever, but it put everyone at ease, especially after his .306/.376/.575 line in the second half of 2010. He has streaked and slumped a bit since then, as one might expect. After an 0-for-3 performance last night he’s down to .282/.349/.535, though those are still quite excellent numbers — a .386 wOBA, which ranks sixth among NL outfielders. If he catches fire again, he could start climbing that leaderboard again.

Only, that’s not exactly true. Yes, Bruce does have a .386 wOBA, and that does rank sixth among NL outfielders. But it took Bruce a while to get there. In fact, the streak described above is currently happening, while the slump, including that 0-for-3 performance, occurred a bit earlier in the season. It doesn’t change the end result, but it does change the narrative.

Read the rest of this entry »