Archive for July, 2011
How Hunter Pence Fits in Pittsburgh
There’s an adage regarding the trade deadline I heard recently, but can’t remember the source. The idea, essentially, is that if you require additional players in order to contend, you shouldn’t play the role of buyer. The trade deadline is a time for contenders to shore up their rosters for the final third of the season, not for pretenders to sell the farm for a prayer. This year the Pirates might have reason to eschew that logic. They’re playing better than their talent indicates — about seven wins better, according to Baseball Prospectus’s third-order wins — and could come crashing down at any time. But they’re currently just a half game back of first, and without a standout team in the NL Central they could stay in the race with the right upgrades. A rental, however, might not be the way to go.
The Three Worst Double Plays Ever
…or at least since 1974, since that’s how far the play-by-play database goes back at the moment.
All non-masochistic fans hate watching a hitter from their team ground into a double play. It is almost always (that’s right, almost, as we’ll see in a post later this week) devastating for your team’s chances. In terms of linear weights, the average double play in modern baseball is about .37 runs worse than a normal out because it costs another out and takes a runner off of the bases.
Of course, the actual effect of a double play depends on the game situation in which it occurs, it’s place in the story. While Win Probability Added (WPA) isn’t a good way to value individual players, it is a good “story stat,” as it gives a quantitative sense of the ebbs and flows of the game play-by-play by seeing what the teams chances of winning before and after each event are. So let’s take a look at the worst (from the perspective of the hitter’s team) three double plays (just grounded into double plays, as things like lining into a double play are a different sort of beast) according to WPA since 1974.
New SIERA, Part One (of Five): Pitchers with High Strikeouts Have Low BABIPs
Predicting baseball statistics is a tough job, especially when it comes to pitchers.
For every Roy Halladay pitch machine, there are 10 James Shieldses – guys whose ERAs change a run or two every year. Basically, it’s a crapshoot when it comes to figuring out the next ace – or the former ace-in-waiting who’ll lose his job by the all-star break. Don’t believe me? Consider this: In the past 11 years, four hitters have led the major leagues in WAR; eight pitchers have led the majors in ERA.
So while the league-leading run producers might be predictable, league-leading run preventers change almost every year. But hope isn’t completely lost when it comes to figuring out the next pitching superstar – or dud. Some pitching stats are very predictable, and focusing on those few numbers might lead us to a better system to evaluate talent.
2011 Trade Value: #10-#1
#50-#46
#46-#41
#40-#36
#35-#31
#30-#26
#25-#21
#20-#11
And now, for the top 10. For the first time ever (I believe), it’s all position players. There’s a good young crop of guys who play the field and don’t come with the risks inherent with pitchers, and the toughest part was ordering them. You’d take any of these guys and be thrilled about it. Did anyone manage to dethrone the defending champ from the top spot? Scroll down to find out.
#10 – Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington: +16.4
2011 Trade Value: #20-#11
#50-#46
#46-#41
#40-#36
#35-#31
#30-#26
#25-#21
The Trade Value series has it’s grand finale today, as we’ll wrap up the final 20 spots on the list with two posts this morning, and then I’ll be around to chat about the list at noon. Jonah Keri will then be by at 3:30 for his regular Monday chat, so don’t worry, you can still talk bagels and poutine later today.
On to the penultimate 10.
Rank – Player – Position – Team – Past 3 Calendar Year WAR
#20 – Bryce Harper, OF, Washington: +0.0 WAR
The Morning After: Game Recaps for July 17th
Moving the Needle: Freddie Freeman walks off with a single, +.391 WPA. After ending the third inning at a 2-2 tie, the Braves and Nats played a hectic middle third. In the fourth the Nats scored four to take a 6-2 lead, but then in the fifth the Braves put up a five-spot to take the lead. The Nats jumped right back in the top of the sixth when Danny Espinosa knocked a two-run blast, putting them up 8-7. In the eighth Nate McLouth homered to tie it, and in the ninth the Braves rallied for the win. The decisive hit came off the bat of Freeman, whose single wrapped up a hectic victory.
Notables
Brian McCann: 1 for 4, 1 HR, 1 BB. The question of the AL’s best catcher might be up for debate, but the best catcher in the majors? Right here.
Danny Espinosa: 3 for 5, 1 3B, 1 HR. He drove in three runs. Of his 84 hits this year, 37 have gone for extra bases.
Also in this issue: Orioles 8, Indians 3 | Diamondbacks 4, Dodgers 1 | Tigers 4, White Sox 3 | Twins 4, Royals 3 | Marlins 7, Cubs 5 | A’s 9, Angels 1 | Reds 3, Cardinals 1 | Rangers 3, Mariners 1 | Brewers 4, Rockies 3 | Red Sox 1, Rays 0 | Pirates 7, Astros 5 | Yankees 7, Blue Jays 2 | Phillies 8, Mets 5 | Giants 4, Padres 3
The Lowe Down On Dealing From Depth
Derek Lowe hasn’t lived up to his four-year, $60 million contract so far, but his steady contributions have been valuable to a deep Braves rotation.
Lowe is one of the more predictably effective pitchers. His walk and strikeout rates tend to hover around the league average, while he doesn’t allow many home runs and induces grounders at a phenomenal rate. From 2007 through this season, Lowe’s 60% groundball rate ranks second in the majors to teammate Tim Hudson’s 61.5%.
Despite being 38 years old and having about $21 million remaining on his contract through 2012, Lowe is reportedly on a couple of contending teams’ radars. The idea of Atlanta trading Lowe while itself being a legitimate playoff contender is interesting. Rare are the times when arguably the best starting pitcher available comes from a team thick in the playoff hunt. But for a team deep with starting pitching, a potential deal also hits on the notion of trading from depth and maximizing returns to fix deficiencies elsewhere.
Aubrey Huff’s Dead Cat Bounce
With the Detroit Tigers in 2009, it looked like Aubrey Huff’s career might be done. The 32-year-old hit .241/.310/.384 in a much more lively run environment, compiling an ugly 77 wRC+ and -1.8 WAR. It certainly wouldn’t have been the first time a slugger in his 30s just lost his ability to hit for power, nor will it be the last (hello, Adam Dunn?). But then, Huff gave the nation a front row seat to what looked like one of the most fantastic recoveries in recent baseball history. His 26 home runs and .290/.385/.506 line resulted in +5.8 WAR and made him one of the most important pieces on a World Series winning Giants team.
Fast forward to the 2011 All-Star Break. Huff is 25% through a new contract rewarding his services during the Giants’ run to the Commissioner’s Trophy. A full $17 million remains on the 34-year-old’s contract, and much to the dismay of Brian Sabean and the Giants, Huff picked up the new season right where he left off in 2009. In this brave new low-scoring run environment we find ourselves in, Huff’s first half slash line of .238/.291/.370 is an equivalent 77 wRC+ to his awful 2009 season; his -0.9 WAR in 375 PA just under his pace of -1.8 WAR in 597 PA with Detroit and Baltimore.