The Lowe Down On Dealing From Depth

Derek Lowe hasn’t lived up to his four-year, $60 million contract so far, but his steady contributions have been valuable to a deep Braves rotation.

Lowe is one of the more predictably effective pitchers. His walk and strikeout rates tend to hover around the league average, while he doesn’t allow many home runs and induces grounders at a phenomenal rate. From 2007 through this season, Lowe’s 60% groundball rate ranks second in the majors to teammate Tim Hudson’s 61.5%.

Despite being 38 years old and having about $21 million remaining on his contract through 2012, Lowe is reportedly on a couple of contending teams’ radars. The idea of Atlanta trading Lowe while itself being a legitimate playoff contender is interesting. Rare are the times when arguably the best starting pitcher available comes from a team thick in the playoff hunt. But for a team deep with starting pitching, a potential deal also hits on the notion of trading from depth and maximizing returns to fix deficiencies elsewhere.

Last season, Cliff Lee, Dan Haren and Roy Oswalt were traded around the deadline. Each pitcher was throwing well and certainly bolstered the rotation of the acquiring teams. Lee helped get the Rangers to the World Series. Oswalt’s second-half surge helped the Phillies to the best record in baseball. Haren gave the Angels 94 innings and a 2.87 ERA during 14 starts — tallying two wins above replacement in less than half of a season.

The trade landscape this season is much different because there aren’t many solid pitchers likely to change addresses. Jeremy Guthrie might be the closest thing to a marquee name on the market. And Erik Bedard is a commodity, but his injury history leaves something to be desired.

The lack of available, top-flight pitchers  stems from the component of trade theory that suggests that contending teams look to acquire talent — not part ways with it. Meanwhile, struggling teams might look to unload valuable assets to extract a return that can ensure some long-term success.  Still, most of these struggling teams don’t have starting pitchers attractive enough for teams trying to improve for a stretch run.

Teams might then attempt a bit of creativity, by looking at pitchers like Lowe or Edwin Jackson — who wouldn’t be available under traditional circumstances.

The reason Lowe could be made available deals with the strength of the Braves starting rotation. With Jair Jurrjens, Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson and Brandon Beachy, Atlanta has a formidable group of starters. The team also has Mike Minor, Julio Teheran and Kenshin Kawakami in the minor leagues. Assuming one or more of those pitchers could produce even a little bit at the major league level in August and September — and that moving Lowe could help the Braves fix roster problems elsewhere — Atlanta would effectively deal from its strength to fix a weakness. Theoretically, the team could make a move and not suffer.

But Lowe isn’t really a pitcher who could draw a impactful player at a position where the Braves need improvement. Atlanta has three predominant holes: shortstop, center field and left field. Alex Gonzalez has some power, and he is still an above average fielder, but a team as talented as the Braves shouldn’t need to settle for mediocre production. The same can be said of Jordan Schafer, he of the .233/.293/.318 line. And then there’s Nate McLouth, whose troublesome production has been frequently noted.

One of those players will get bumped from the lineup when Chipper Jones returns. Martin Prado will move to left field, and either Schafer stays in center or McLouth takes over there.  That still leaves two problems to solve, and one pitcher is unlikely to get the job done. But there could be some hope for the Braves if, say, a team like the Tigers were to take on all of Lowe’s remaining salary this year. A deal like this would be more of a salary dump than anything else, but Atlanta could conceivably use its new-found savings to afford impact players brought aboard in other deals.

One of the most fascinating aspects of the trade deadline is the chess-like approach that some general managers take. Not every trade is as black and white as it first seems. If Lowe really is available, the Braves would benefit the most by getting out from under his salary. That money could be better allocated in more dire areas, whether it gets spent on a half-year rental this season, a free agent next year, or both. Dealing from a strength to fix a weakness is among the best trades that a team can make. Moving Lowe could be the start for a series of deals that could significantly improve the club.