Sal Stewart made a promising showing when the Reds called him up last September, clubbing five home runs in 18 games while helping Cincinnati reach the postseason for the first time since 2020. His 2026 campaign is off to a flying start, as well. Not only did he bank NL Player of the Week honors for the season’s opening week, but his performance underscores the notion — supported by both scouting and statistical projections — that he’s leveled up significantly.

Through the Reds’ first six games, the 22-year-old first baseman has put up video-game numbers, batting .474/.615/.947 (313 wRC+) with two homers in 26 plate appearances. His hot streak began with an eventful Opening Day; while the Reds lost to the Red Sox, 3-0, it was hardly his fault. He went 3-for-4, including a pair of bases-empty doubles, one apiece off starter Garrett Crochet and reliever Garrett Whitlock, as well as a single to right field off Crochet with men on first and second. With third base coach Willie Harris wary of testing two-time Gold Glove winner Wilyer Abreu’s arm, lead runner Matt McLain was held up and ultimately stranded.

Stewart also survived a scare in the fifth inning, when a 110-mph liner off the bat of Roman Anthony hit his left wrist as he tried to backhand the ball. He was shaken up but remained in the game, and reassuringly collected two of his three hits after being drilled. Read the rest of this entry »

In Bubba Chandler’s first start of the 2026 season, he didn’t allow a single hit. Oh yeah, and he struck out more than 30% of the batters he faced. Spectacular! Just, um, don’t look over at the walk column. Oh, you did? Yeah, fine, he walked more than 30% of the batters he faced, too. Oh, and he allowed a run, and didn’t get out of the fifth inning. To understand what Chandler was up to, and what it might mean for the rest of his year, we’ll have to dig a little deeper.

Chandler leaned heavily on his fastball to start his year, as many pitchers do in their first appearance of the season. He breezed through the first inning with 11 straight fastballs, eclipsing 100 mph on the radar gun four times and essentially daring the Reds to hit it. TJ Friedl waved feebly at 100 above the zone. Matt McLain did the same. Chandler’s fastball is dynamite, particularly when he’s locating it high. It explodes upwards, and some offseason tweaks have it moving less arm side than before, making it even harder to square up.

I could watch a montage of Chandler overpowering Reds hitters all day. In fact, you can too:

You can see how difficult it is to track Chandler’s fastball by watching the check swings. The pitch that Jose Trevino, the last batter in that loop, offered at was more than a foot above the zone. The combination of velo, movement, and Chandler’s loping delivery means that hitters have a lot of trouble figuring out where the ball is going. Read the rest of this entry »

Andrew Painter made his major league debut on Tuesday, as the Phillies were coming off a three-game losing streak. That’s a tough assignment; I know it’s the first week of the season, but that has never stopped Phillies fans — who even in the best of times are always looking for a reason to jump off a bridge — from declaring the team irretrievably cooked.

Not so fast, my friends. Because anyone who’s willing to overreact to a one-game sample in April must be over the moon about Painter.

Painter, who turns 23 next month, was one of the top pitching prospects in the entire sport in the 2022-23 offseason. At age 19, he was promoted to Double-A, where he posted a 2.54 ERA in five starts and struck out 37, while walking just two, in 28 1/3 innings. As 2023 dawned, there was a not-unreasonable expectation that Painter would contribute down the stretch in his age-20 season, perhaps as a bullpen stopper, like a young David Price or Adam Wainwright, or perhaps in the rotation. (Remember, this was before Cristopher Sánchez turned into the world-destroying ace he’s become.)

But Painter’s elbow started barking, and an early hesitation to sending him to get Tommy John surgery led to both 2023 and 2024 being written off. With two years of rust, Painter struggled in 2025, pitching to an ERA over 5.00 across two minor league levels, and the first single-digit K/9 ratio of his professional career. The Phillies pitched well last postseason, but they still could’ve used Painter. He simply hadn’t earned the call-up that he’d seemingly had in the bag since early 2023.

He dropped his arm slot and lost a ton of life off his fastball while returning from Tommy John, but the promise remained. He was no longer the top pitching prospect in baseball, nor the top prospect in the Phillies’ system, but he rated no. 27 overall this past offseason and eighth among pitching prospects, with a 55-FV grade. This is still Philadelphia’s most anticipated rookie pitcher since at least Cole Hamels.

It speaks to the Phillies’ faith in the young right-hander that they did not go out and get anything resembling a like-for-like replacement for the departing Ranger Suarez. With Zack Wheeler on the mend from thoracic outlet syndrome, that left Painter in the big league rotation with no safety net. I genuinely do not know who starting pitcher no. 6 is for the Phillies right now, but I am confronted with the possibility that it might be Bryse Wilson if 40-man roster glut were not a consideration.

So, yeah, there’s a bit of pressure on Painter.

If he was feeling that pressure, you couldn’t tell. Painter, who stands an Ent-like 6-foot-7, strolled serenely to the mound for his first competitive big league action. And as good as the stuff and the results were — don’t worry, I’m getting there — Painter’s composure seemed to impress his teammates most.

Remember, the Phillies are, generally speaking, old as hell. They’ve been around the block. Matt Gelb of The Athletic noted before the game that Tuesday’s was the first Phillies lineup in five and a half years to feature two players aged 22 or younger. Gelb quoted Jesús Luzardo, Brandon Marsh, and J.T. Realmuto praising Painter’s composure in his gamer. Kyle Schwarber and Adolis García echoed those sentiments in their postgame remarks.

But it doesn’t matter how calm a rookie pitcher is if he’s throwing slop and getting shelled. So let’s check Painter’s stuff and results.

Yes, the Nationals’ lineup isn’t that good overall, but it features a few challenging hitters: CJ Abrams, Daylen Lile, and the genuinely capital-D Dangerous James Wood. Joey Wiemer is coming off a run of literally not making an out for 10 straight plate appearances, though it looks like the magic (or quantum ray power) has finally worn off.

The value proposition for Painter is that there’s nothing weird about him. He’s just what an ace looks like. He’s huge, he throws hard, he has a varied arsenal of six pitches… there’s just nothing to talk yourself into on the scouting report.

Painter throws two fastballs, a four-seamer and sinker, both of which sat 94-97 and topped out at 98.7 mph. He hit that figure twice in the first inning, when he was freshest and the adrenaline was surely pumping hardest, but he got back to 98.6 mph in the fourth.

Like a lot of modern starters, Painter has one look for left-handed hitters and another for righties. The platoon advantage works because breaking balls move away from same-handed batters and toward opposite-handed hitters. So pitchers like Painter, who have multiple fastballs and breaking balls, want to work side-to-side against same-handed batters and up-and-down against opposite-handed ones. That means four-seamer, sinker, slider, sweeper against righties, and four-seamer, slider, curveball, changeup against lefties in Painter’s case.

Nationals manager Blake Butera loaded up on the former. With six lefties and two switch-hitters in the lineup, Wiemer was the only right-handed batter Painter faced all evening, so we saw a lot of his four-seamer, slider, curveball, and changeup, and relatively little of his sinker and sweeper.

Painter was kind enough to get at least one strikeout on each pitch from that first group of four, so that you can see all of them in this highlight video.

Painter’s first and last strikeouts came against Wood, and both came from working fastball up, curveball down, to change Wood’s eye level and mess up his timing. He struck out in the fifth inning after taking an 80.6-mph curveball for a strike, and then chasing a 97.2-mph four-seamer up and away.

With the fastball and curveball established, Painter could tunnel his changeup into a middle ground in terms of movement and speed. The scouting report on Painter has “FASTBALL VELOCITY” and “NASTY CURVEBALL” written in all caps, but the changeup is a new weapon, perhaps the only positive development from his forgettable 2025 season in Lehigh Valley.

He was able to paint the bottom left-hand corner of the strike zone with his changeup to get Luis García Jr. looking in the third, and he did it again to Jorbit Vivas in the fourth. Both of those pitches were right on the edge of the zone, but Painter worked there so effectively that the Nats were out of challenges when Vivas tried to summon ABS to bail him out.

And when Painter did allow contact, it was pretty innocuous. He let up 12 balls in play out of 21 batters faced. Only three of those batted balls had an xBA of .100 or higher, and only one reached Baseball Savant’s hard-hit threshold of 95 mph. That was the last pitch Painter threw all night: Abrams ripped it to right for a single, and Phillies manager Rob Thomson, wanting his rookie starter to go out on a positive, pulled the plug.

The damage the Nats did against Painter, such as it was, didn’t do much to discredit the rookie’s effort. Lile seemed to have Painter’s number, reaching twice, but one of those two came on a popup that four different Phillies lost in the lights. As a general rule, when someone tags Jon Bois on social media with “watching baseball,” it doesn’t speak well of what’s depicted.

@jonbois.bsky.social watching baseball

— buck_knife (@buckknife.bsky.social) 2026-04-01T02:17:28.626Z

The state of perpetual garment-rending around the Phillies might be unhelpful, as I mentioned up top, but as debuts go, at home in April against the Nats is a pretty soft assignment for a rookie. Painter aced it, so to speak, but that success only earns him a new set of questions to answer. Can he get it done against deeper lineups? Can he survive a third time through the order? Can he hold his velocity? If so, how far up the rotation can he climb — a question that could become quite relevant given the questions about Wheeler’s health and Aaron Nola’s getting abducted by aliens last year.

But that’s life in the big leagues. The hits just keep on coming. Or, in Painter’s case, maybe they won’t.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, please visit our Patreon.

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about rookie batters’ blistering start to the season, then Stat Blast (10:15) about how long it typically takes for there to be no remaining teams that are winless or undefeated (or both), the latest a team won or lost by a margin that matched its record, and the seasons that featured the most Hall of Famers (at all, and in their primes). Then they talk to three listeners who created brand-new apps/sites that enhance the experience of following the season: Tristan Rodman of Baseball Scores (28:00), Zach Gines of First Pitch (46:45), and Ezra Thompson of Play-O-Graph (1:09:30), followed by assorted updates (1:26:58).

Audio intro: Beatwriter, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Ted O., “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to freemium model announcement
Link to written explanation
Link to checksum explainer
Link to seasonal rookie batting lines
Link to 2026 rookie batting line
Link to 2026 rookie pitching line
Link to Baumann on Painter
Link to Kepner on the rookies
Link to aging curve research 1
Link to aging curve research 2
Link to Ben on 2015 rookies
Link to Ben on 2015 youth
Link to Fernandez debut game
Link to two-homer-debuts query
Link to winless/undefeated teams data
Link to 1894 game
Link to 1911 game
Link to 1986 game
Link to 1993 game
Link to 1996 game
Link to 2000 game 1
Link to 2000 game 2
Link to HoFers data
Link to HoFers graph
Link to Frisch VC info
Link to listener emails database
Link to Baseball Scores site
Link to Tristan’s site
Link to The Gagnés theme 1
Link to The Gagnés theme 2
Link to @dril tweet
Link to Angell quote
Link to First Pitch site
Link to NERD scores
Link to B-Ref Stream Finder
Link to Skubal-Gallen gamer
Link to Play-O-Graph site
Link to playograph wiki
Link to FotMob
Link to Moneyball clip
Link to Grounds Crew Baseball site
Link to The Number Wall site
Link to “meme” origins
Link to Yates press conference
Link to Orioles tap-off
Link to Crawford walk-off story
Link to pre-Artemis II batted balls
Link to Artemis II launch story
Link to xkcd comic
Link to Bucknor play story
Link to Bucknor play video
Link to Bucknor injury story
Link to Ben on forgotten counts
Link to Bois on forgotten counts
Link to Retrosheet forgotten counts
Link to video of Smith PA
Link to Smith PA on Gameday
Link to Alvarez PA on Gameday
Link to Chris’s Reddit post

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The outcomes are truer than ever.

The Mariners did not record a single in their first two games of 2026. No team had ever done that in major league history. In fact, only eight teams have ever gone back-to-back games without a single, according to MLB.com’s Sarah Langs.

The reason is obvious. The Mariners didn’t hit a single because they didn’t put the ball in play very often. And frankly, how could they? Guardians pitchers threw less than 40% of their pitches in the zone, and the Mariners were forced to lay off them, drawing walks in 13.6% of their plate appearances during those two games. When the Guardians did enter the zone, the Mariners struggled to make contact, striking out 35.8% of the time. That means only 34 (50.8%) of their plate appearances ended with a batted ball. And because the Mariners employ a number of sluggers, six of those batted balls flew over the fence. Read the rest of this entry »

Apparently not wanting to be left out of the flurry of contract extensions handed out over the last two weeks, the Seattle Mariners signed a big one of their own, locking up infield prospect Colt Emerson to an eight-year contract that guarantees him $95 million over the next eight years. This includes a $1 million salary for 2026, meaning that the contract goes through the end of the 2033 season, with the Mariners holding a 2034 club option that could staple another $25 million onto the back of the contract. Emerson’s deal also includes a no-trade clause and bonuses for All-Star selections and Silver Slugger and MVP awards, de rigueur in deals such as this.

Emerson, who doesn’t turn 21 until July, is widely considered Seattle’s top prospect by most sources, whether you prefer our prospect team, Keith Law over at The Athletic, old friend Kiley McDaniel at ESPN, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, or mean ol’ ZiPS. That’s no small feat to pull off when you’re in the same organization that has high-end pitching arms like Ryan Sloan and Kade Anderson.

While Emerson doesn’t have one mind-blowing tool that absolutely obliterates the cognitive pathways of watchers, he’s very accomplished at basically everything he does. He’s not going to regularly blast Stantonian shots, but he’ll hit his fair share of home runs, ZiPS thinks 15-20 a year if he played home games at a neutral site rather than T-Mobile Park. Emerson is willing to draw walks, but he still retains a fundamental aggression at the plate; that’s a good thing, as being too passive is a frequent pitfall for prospects who take a good amount of free passes. There’s no whiff problem hiding in his advanced stats, either. He’s not a burner on the basepaths like Trea Turner or Bobby Witt Jr., but at the same time, he’s not me with a belly full of Cool Ranch Doritos, a 32-ounce deli container of beer, and a hamstring that hasn’t gotten a whole lot of use since the Clinton administration. It doesn’t seem like there are any serious concerns about his sticking at shortstop, and the coordinate-based method that ZiPS uses for minor leaguers sees him as a solid B+ defender at the position. Let’s crank out those projections. Read the rest of this entry »

One morning, about two weeks ago, a YouTube video made me feel like I was asleep at the wheel. Ethan Moore, a former analyst with the Rockies and the Reds, had posted a video titled “Every Baseball Analyst is Missing Something Important.” I’d like to consider myself a baseball analyst, and it sounded like I might be missing something important. And so I clicked to see what that might be.

Over the span of 36 minutes, Ethan broke down a total of three pitches, all of which were thrown by Nolan McLean to Pete Crow-Armstrong in the second inning of a late September game between the Mets and Cubs. He used this plate appearance to illustrate his central claim: There is so much happening in the handful of milliseconds between the release of the ball and the swing of a bat, and that the psychology of the hitter — conscious thoughts, subconscious expectations, muscle memories — dictates the decision of when to swing, and where, and how hard. As Ethan put it, “When the ball is in the air, on the way to the plate, what is actually happening in the mind and the subconscious brain of the hitter?”

It reminded me of another video I saw a bit earlier in the spring. It featured Vinnie Pasquantino, before he captained Team Italy in the WBC, wearing a microphone during a live batting practice session against his Royals teammate Steven Zobac. It’s meant to be a short and funny clip, and it is both of those things, but I just kept thinking about Pasquantino’s subconscious. Read the rest of this entry »

In the new season’s early going, the challenge system has been all the rage across the majors. If you don’t believe me, you can read ESPN’s coverage of it, or The Athletic’s, or MLB.com’s, or … well, you get the idea. The coverage has been extensive and positive, and I couldn’t agree with its enthusiasm more. I love the new system, and I’m also really excited to think about challenges in general. There are so many fun angles to consider. So here’s the math nerd’s take on what challenges have looked like so far, and what I’m most interested to learn about them moving forward.

How I’m Thinking About Challenges
Every time a strike or ball is called, there’s an opportunity for a challenge, at least so long as the relevant team has one remaining. That makes it easy to measure the prospective value of a challenge on any given pitch: It’s worth however much flipping the result of that particular pitch would change the game situation in the challenging player’s favor. All we have to do is figure out how many runs were likely to score in the inning in each case and compare the two. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Joey Wiemer, Colt Emerson’s contract, the concept of “sticking at shortstop,” and pre-arbitration (and pre-debut) extension trends, then (29:11) answer listener emails about A.J. Preller trading himself, Harrison Bader and the press conference threshold, plotting to prevent a switch-hitter from batting from both sides, no-selling a World Series ring ceremony, giveaway promotions at every game, a Craig Kimbrel PitchCom hypothesis, the top five MLB owners, pitch-count limits in a World Series perfect game bid, technical fouls in baseball, the aesthetic appeal of platooning, and lifetime .500 franchises.

Audio intro: Garrett Krohn, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Andy Ellison, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Baumann on Wiemer
Link to MLB.com on Wiemer
Link to FG combined WAR leaderboard
Link to “small sample” song
Link to Voros’ Law
Link to “WDJDD?” (short)
Link to “WDJDD?” (long)
Link to MLBTR on Emerson
Link to Nichols’ Law of Catcher Defense
Link to Passan tweet about Emerson
Link to FG post on Pratt
Link to Sam on extensions
Link to Bader story
Link to Seinfeld “sponge-worthy” clips
Link to Kiri on promotions
Link to “Things Fitting Perfectly Into Other Things”
Link to Meg on the baseball penalty box
Link to Diamondbacks bullpen story
Link to “Maddux” stat
Link to Ben on ex-player execs
Link to franchise W-L records
Link to listener emails database

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