Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about a new contender for the highest bat flip, meet major leaguers (14:28) Ryan Johnson and Alan Roden, and (48:35) answer listener emails about how different baseball would be if losses were free for fans and wins cost extra, whether the Rockies will finish in first before the Dodgers finish in last, whether umpires would stand somewhere else in a full-ABS situation, the record for career games pitched without a decision, catcher’s gear designed for a one-knee-down stance, why more Japanese catchers haven’t joined MLB, and more.
Isaiah J. Downing and Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
Anything worth doing is worth doing right, and when it came to losing games, the 2024 White Sox were the grandmasters of the art. Sure, the 1899 Cleveland Spiders had a worse record, but that was an intentionally terrible team thanks to an owner who sent the club’s good players over to another team they owned, the St. Louis Perfectos. The 1962 Mets edged the Sox in win percentage, but that notorious team had the advantage of being an expansion club in their first year after an expansion draft that was so short on talent, it resembled a grocery store’s toilet paper aisle during the height of COVID. Last year’s White Sox were just two years removed from a .500 record, and by all accounts, ownership and the front office intended to actually win games. A strong record, however, needs to be forged in the fire of new challengers, and this season, two early contenders have emerged: the Colorado Rockies and the reigning lastpions themselves.
The Rockies are off to a blazing cold start and are the current frontrunners with a 4-20 record. For a team with a winning percentage short of .200, Colorado has received some surprisingly competent pitching performances, with the two main splats being former Cy Young contender Germán Márquez and top prospect Chase Dollander. Where the Rockies have been stunningly poor is on the offensive side of things, with the team hitting .213/.287/.345 and just barely averaging three runs per game. Fourteen hitters have at least 20 plate appearances and more than half of them have a wRC+ below 70. Ryan McMahon’s performance is a particularly low lowlight; the third baseman has 39 strikeouts already thanks to an out-of-zone contact rate under 20%, a number so bananas that it looks like a programming glitch that proves our existence is actually a simulation.
ZiPS thought the Rockies would struggle in 2025, but not to this level. The system’s projection, for a mere 99 losses, even came with a (very) small chance of Colorado making the playoffs as a Wild Card team. After Thursday’s games, I did a full re-simulation of the 2025 season to get a projection for what the Rockies could achieve if they fail to get the wheels back on the cart:
ZiPS Win Projection – Colorado Rockies
Wins
Percentage
Cumulative
28
0.0%
0.0%
29
0.0%
0.0%
30
0.0%
0.0%
31
0.1%
0.1%
32
0.1%
0.2%
33
0.1%
0.3%
34
0.2%
0.5%
35
0.3%
0.7%
36
0.5%
1.2%
37
0.7%
1.8%
38
0.8%
2.7%
39
1.0%
3.7%
40
1.5%
5.2%
41
1.8%
7.0%
42
2.0%
8.9%
43
2.6%
11.5%
44
2.9%
14.4%
45
3.3%
17.7%
46
4.0%
21.7%
47
4.1%
25.8%
48
4.4%
30.2%
49
4.7%
34.9%
50
5.2%
40.1%
51
5.0%
45.0%
52
5.4%
50.4%
53
5.2%
55.6%
54
5.1%
60.7%
55
5.0%
65.7%
56
4.7%
70.4%
57
4.3%
74.7%
58
4.1%
78.8%
59
3.7%
82.5%
60
3.3%
85.7%
61
2.8%
88.5%
62
2.4%
91.0%
63
1.9%
92.9%
64
1.7%
94.6%
65
1.3%
95.9%
66
1.1%
97.1%
67
0.9%
97.9%
68
0.6%
98.6%
69
0.4%
99.0%
70
0.4%
99.4%
71
0.2%
99.6%
72
0.2%
99.8%
73
0.1%
99.9%
74
0.1%
99.9%
75
0.0%
100.0%
76
0.0%
100.0%
77
0.0%
100.0%
78
0.0%
100.0%
79
0.0%
100.0%
80
0.0%
100.0%
81
0.0%
100.0%
Naturally, the team’s small sliver of playoff probability has been wiped out by April. In the preseason projections, the Rockies only had a 1.5% chance of matching 121 losses and a 0.8% chance of setting a new record. So while the feat was at least plausible, it was a long shot. The odds are still strongly against — losing this many games is really hard — but seven and five percent are bonafide countin’ numbers.
Colorado’s biggest obstacle in the pursuit of infamy is that there are real reasons for hope when looking at the roster. As mentioned above, Márquez and Dollander have been terrible, but there is still at least some remaining chance that the former can get back to where he was, and the latter is an elite prospect. Michael Toglia is a Triple-A-caliber first baseman, not a pitcher dragooned into the lineup, and will surely fall short of his -6 WAR pace. Ezequiel Tovar is a better player than this, and guys like Zac Veen and Adael Amador have legitimate upside. The Rockies simply have a lot of saving throws that could lead to more positive outcomes this year. The start makes it possible that the Rockies will match the 2024 Sox for futility, but when you watch Colorado, your eyes aren’t physically forced to stare blurrily into middle distance at the Stygian maw, where nothing will give your frozen gaze succor from the dread of oblivion and Chris Davis‘ contract.
But hey, we still have the OGs, the White Sox, to look at. At 6-19, they’re a game and a half behind the Rockies for these purposes, but if ZiPS is to be believed, they’re a fundamentally worse roster. Chicago’s 52-110 projected record coming into the 2025 season is the worst projection ZiPS has ever given a team (not counting that article last year where I projected how Triple-A teams would fare in the majors):
ZiPS Win Projection – Chicago White Sox
Win
Percentage
Cumulative
28
0.0%
0.0%
29
0.1%
0.1%
30
0.1%
0.2%
31
0.2%
0.4%
32
0.3%
0.7%
33
0.4%
1.1%
34
0.6%
1.7%
35
0.9%
2.6%
36
1.3%
3.9%
37
1.5%
5.4%
38
1.9%
7.3%
39
2.4%
9.7%
40
2.8%
12.4%
41
3.4%
15.8%
42
3.7%
19.6%
43
4.1%
23.6%
44
4.7%
28.3%
45
5.1%
33.4%
46
5.3%
38.7%
47
5.5%
44.2%
48
5.4%
49.6%
49
5.3%
54.9%
50
5.1%
60.0%
51
5.0%
65.0%
52
4.7%
69.7%
53
4.4%
74.1%
54
4.2%
78.3%
55
3.7%
82.0%
56
3.2%
85.2%
57
2.9%
88.1%
58
2.5%
90.6%
59
2.0%
92.7%
60
1.6%
94.3%
61
1.5%
95.8%
62
1.2%
96.9%
63
0.8%
97.7%
64
0.7%
98.4%
65
0.5%
98.9%
66
0.4%
99.2%
67
0.3%
99.5%
68
0.2%
99.7%
69
0.1%
99.8%
70
0.1%
99.9%
71
0.0%
100.0%
72
0.0%
100.0%
73
0.0%
100.0%
74
0.0%
100.0%
75
0.0%
100.0%
76
0.0%
100.0%
77
0.0%
100.0%
78
0.0%
100.0%
79
0.0%
100.0%
80
0.0%
100.0%
81
0.0%
100.0%
ZiPS gives the White Sox a 16% chance of matching last year’s loss total and a 12% chance — better than the probability of an Aaron Judge homer — of besting it. Where the White Sox and Rockies differ in the pantheon of lousy teams is that the Sox are currently configured in a way that greatly limits their upside. For a rebuilding team, the starting lineup is surprisingly old and established; players like Nick Maton, Michael A. Taylor, and Matt Thaiss have a use as role players on a good team, but the ceiling on their performance is quite low. Currently injured players such as Josh Rojas and Mike Tauchman are in the same boat. The Sox have built a Triple-A-caliber team with a roster that looks like one. If you had been out of the country and behind on the baseball news and someone gave you a printout of this roster with “Charlotte Knights” at the top, would it immediately register as wrong?
That’s not to say there aren’t any players with upside. I actually like the return the Sox got for Garrett Crochet, and think that Kyle Teel, Chase Meidroth, and Braden Montgomery could all have futures in the majors. Shane Smith has been a highlight for me as a starter, and I’m totally digging Brandon Eisert’s hot start as a junk-tossing Doug Jones-esque reliever, an archetype you don’t see very often in modern baseball. But the prospects won’t be prominent quickly enough, and the interesting pitchers are too few, to give this team a real sense of short-term optimism.
There’s even a chance that both teams tie or set the record, with the Rockies and White Sox both at least tying the record in 1% of simulations and both beating the record in 0.6% of the runs. It’s too soon to known whether we’ll see a true Lossapalooza or merely two ordinarily lousy teams come September, but it’s fun to dream… darkly.
Francisco Lindor has played MVP-caliber baseball for the Mets over the past three seasons and change. He finished as the runner-up to Shohei Ohtani in last year’s NL MVP voting after ninth-place finishes in 2022 and ‘23, and over that span, no position player besides Aaron Judge has accumulated more WAR than his 20.8. Yet Lindor hasn’t made an All-Star team since 2019, in part because he’s often started slowly, making it easier for voters and managers to bypass him. While he was scuffling along in typical April fashion until eight days ago, he’s spurred a seven-game winning streak that’s given the Mets the best record in baseball at 18-7.
Through 25 games, this is the Mets’ best start since 1988, when they also jumped out to an 18-7 start. Those Mets finished 100-60, taking the NL East title under manager Davey Johnson before losing a seven-game NLCS to the upstart Dodgers. They also started 18-7 in 1972; the only time they’ve done better was in 1986, when they started 20-5 and went on to win 108 games and the World Series.
Admittedly, these Mets haven’t assembled their record against the most robust competition. While they did just sweep a three-game series from the Phillies, who won 95 games last year, they’ve played 12 of their 25 games against the Marlins (who lost 100 games last season), A’s (who lost 93), and Blue Jays (who lost 88); their other 10 games have come against the Astros (who won 88), the Cardinals (who won 83), and Twins (who won 82) — and St. Louis and Minnesota appear to have taken several steps back from their 2024 mediocrity, at least in the early going. The Mets have won blowouts (4-1 in games decided by five or more runs) and close ones (7-2 in one-run games); they’ve dropped series only to the Astros and Twins, each of whom took the rubber game of a best-of-three by one run. Competition aside, New York’s record isn’t soft, in that the club is only about one win ahead of its major league-best PythagenPat and BaseRuns winning percentages (.675 and .672, respectively). Read the rest of this entry »
Kyle Freeland is scheduled to make his 206th start for the Colorado Rockies on Friday night, and when he does, he’ll tie Aaron Cook for the most in franchise history. The 31-year-old southpaw began building that number when he made his major league debut in April 2017. Three years earlier, he’d been drafted eighth overall by the NL West club out of the University of Evansville.
When our Rockies Top Prospects list was published in November 2016, Freeland was ranked no. 6 in a system that Eric Longenhagen then described as “both interesting and complex,” as well as excellent and underrated. Our lead prospect analyst assigned the lanky left-hander a 50 FV.
What did Freeland’s scouting report look like at that time? Moreover, what does he think of it all these years later? Wanting to find out, I shared some of what Eric wrote and asked Freeland to respond to it.
———
“Freeland missed a huge chunk of the 2015 season dealing with bone chips in his elbow and shoulder fatigue, and he looked bad in the Fall League when he returned.”
“That is completely inaccurate,” Freeland replied. “I led the Fall League in ERA. I was a Fall League All-Star. My first start was not good, but every start after that I was nails. Read the rest of this entry »
Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the fifth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.
A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.
All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »
Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. Normally, this column is a celebration of the extreme athleticism and talent on display across the majors. This week, though, I found myself drawn to the oddities instead. Unhittable 98-mph splinkers? Boring. Let’s talk about a pitcher who can’t strike anyone out and yet still gets results. Some of the fastest human beings on the planet stealing bases? I’d prefer some slower, larger guys getting in on the act. Brilliant, unbelievable outfield catches? I was more fascinated by a play that didn’t get made. The only thing that hasn’t changed? Mike Trout still isn’t to be trifled with. So thanks to Zach Lowe of The Ringer for his incredible idea for a sports column, and let’s get down to business.
1. In-Game Adjustments
In the 15th year of his career, Mike Trout doesn’t stand out the way he did early on. He’s no longer the fastest and strongest player every time he takes the field; he’s more “slugging corner guy” than “perennial MVP frontrunner” these days. But one thing hasn’t changed: Trout’s wonderful ability to adapt.
Landen Roupp faced the Angels last Saturday, and he leaned on his curveball. He always does, to be fair. It’s one of the best curveballs in baseball, with enormous two-plane break, and he throws it 40% of the time, more than any of his other pitches. In fact, he throws his curveball more often than any other starting pitcher. Trout had never faced Roupp before, and so he struggled to deal with the signature offering. Read the rest of this entry »
“I’m so sick of this friggin’ guy,” is one of the greatest compliments one can pay an opposing athlete. And the Dodgers must be sick to death of Pete Crow-Armstrong. The Cubs and Dodgers, who opened the season together in Japan, just played five games in the span of 13 days to complete their season series. In those five games, Crow-Armstrong did his normal speed-and-defense act, but he also went 10-for-22 with four home runs.
In the two-game series that just ended, PCA went 3-for-5 with a home run and a double in the first game, and 3-for-4 with a home run and two stolen bases in the second. The Cubs won each game by one run; I don’t think it’s at all unfair to say that in a series that featured the Dodgers’ vaunted three-MVP lineup, plus Kyle Tucker, Dansby Swanson, Teoscar Hernández, and a partridge in a pear tree, it was the young PCA who singlehandedly turned the tide. Read the rest of this entry »
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about old-pitcher comebacks (or dropoffs), James Wood’s inefficient excellence, Aaron Judge’s potentially unparalleled peak, whether pitching to contact pays, a possible Paul Skenes change, a base-stealing update, private equity’s MLB plans, and Rob Manfred’s feelings on fandom.
You’re welcome, Yankees fans. Exactly one year ago today, I checked in on Aaron Judge while the slugger was in the throes of a season-opening slump. Though the Yankees were 16-8 when I wrote that piece, it was a dark time for Judge, who a few days earlier had heard a smattering of Bronx cheers while striking out four times on Aaron Judge Bobblehead Day and conceded with typical Jeterian diplomacy and humor, “I’d probably be doing the same thing in their situation.” He’d shown faint signs of turning things around since, combining a couple of days worth of hard-hit balls — including a double on April 23, his first extra-base hit in 10 days — with the apparent end of a strikeout spree, but he wasn’t out of the woods.
In the year since, Judge has put together what might be the best offensive performance any of us has seen. He not only recovered from his slump, he went on to hit 58 homers, win his third home run title and American League MVP award, help the Yankees to their first World Series since 2009, and secure his place in the pantheon of the game’s greatest hitters. What do you even do with these numbers besides gawk?
Aaron Judge Before and After April 24, 2024
Split
G
PA
HR
RBI
AVG
OBP
SLG
wRC+
WAR
2024 Through April 23
24
108
3
11
.180
.315
.348
91
0.1
2024 From April 24
134
596
55
133
.349
.484
.768
242
11.1
2025 Through April 23
25
113
7
26
.415
.513
.734
258
2.5
Past 365 Days
159
709
62
159
.360
.489
.762
245
13.6
For sheer offensive impact as measured by wRC+, that performance would outrank any AL/NL season — even Barry Bonds’ best:
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