Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about vagueposting screenshots of Baseball Savant percentiles, a Ron Darling comment during the Mets’ 12th consecutive loss about why pitchers shouldn’t apologize to batters for throwing inside, team-level changes in pitch usage and results this season, why MLB partly escaped the NBA’s tanking epidemic, why relievers are struggling so far, baseball parallels to track’s quest to produce lighter shoes, and an EW listener meetup tool (password: EW2026), then Stat Blast (1:25:12) about player home run totals that outstripped team win totals, winning streaks built from other teams’ losing streaks, and batting orders with jersey numbers that matched lineup slots, plus (1:39:40) a postscript.

Audio intro: Benny and a Million Shetland Ponies, “Effectively Wild Theme (Horny)”
Audio outro: Alex Ferrin, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to vagueposting wiki
Link to Buxton/McLean matchup
Link to pitch before homer
Link to home run pitch
Link to Clemens on McLean
Link to Clemens on hard in, soft away
Link to Ben on the Pirates
Link to Sawchik on the Pirates
Link to THT on the Pirates
Link to Dan S. on the Mets
Link to SNY ritual clip
Link to MLB.com on SNY ritual
Link to Baumann on Lumineers curse
Link to Mr. Met/Lumineers post
Link to NYT on Mamdani curse
Link to Rosenberg Mr. Met story
Link to team pitching changes
Link to 2025 team FA%
Link to 2026 team FA%
Link to Senzatela pitch usage
Link to pitch-type usage by year
Link to 2025 team Stuff+
Link to 2026 team Stuff+
Link to 2025 team contact%
Link to 2026 team contact%
Link to 2025 team pitching WAR
Link to 2026 team pitching WAR
Link to Sportico on NBA tanking
Link to Gold Plan wiki
Link to Gilbert catch
Link to MLB.com on Legumina
Link to MLBTR on Legumina
Link to MLB SP stats
Link to MLB RP stats
Link to WSJ running shoes article
Link to Ben on MLB player improvements
Link to Cooper on fastball speed
Link to fastball speed joke graphic
Link to listener meetup tool (PW: EW2026)
Link to meetup tool Reddit post
Link to HR>wins spreadsheet
Link to losing streaks spreadsheet
Link to jersey=lineup slot data
Link to Kenny Jackelen
Link to listener emails database
Link to streak-snapping Mets gamer
Link to 1914 Federal League game
Link to 1991 Pirates-Cubs game
Link to 2011 Dodgers-Diamondbacks game
Link to 1952 Dodgers-Braves game
Link to 2017 Yankees-Rays game
Link to 1928 Cleveland-Detroit game
Link to 1923 Dodgers-Cardinals game
Link to 1934 Cardinals-Reds game
Link to 2004 Rangers-Tigers game
Link to 2019 Diamondbacks-Brewers game
Link to EW Episode 2405
Link to Nimmo/Semien comparison
Link to Murakami homers fun fact
Link to Clemens on Murakami
Link to Kruk in a suit
Link to Farley’s Matt Foley skit
Link to Farley’s Kruk skit
Link to Weaver post

 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Give a Gift Subscription
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com
 Effectively Wild Subreddit
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 Apple Podcasts Feed 
 Spotify Feed
 YouTube Playlist
 Facebook Group
 Bluesky Account
 Twitter Account
 Get Our Merch!

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

“It seems that the long arc of time has finally bent to my whims,” said the man, sundering the veil of silence in which he had cloistered himself. The luxurious, sovereign growth around his mouth stirred and parted once more as its owner granted himself a fleeting moment of almost rapturous satisfaction. “Those worthy of my ambitions have finally revealed themselves, and now I am compelled to do naught but grind the ambitions of my enemies into pale dust,” he intoned to the unadorned darkness, steepling his fingers in sacerdotal triumph.

At least, that’s what happened in the disordered mind of Dan Szymborski, curious for months where Lucas Giolito would end up in 2026. Since the end of the offseason, with Giolito unsigned, he’s been a source of speculation as the grand Plan B whenever a pitcher has been lost to injury, almost as if he were lying in wait. The rumors finally materialized into fact on Wednesday, as the San Diego Padres signed him to a one-year deal with a mutual option for the 2027 season.

If Giolito had been waiting for a perfect fit, the team with which he’d make the biggest impact, he was correct to join the Padres. In fact, given the rumors that had popped up, I had already started writing a slightly different piece before reality quite rudely interfered; in it, I used ZiPS to estimate his effect on the playoff probabilities for each team in baseball. And the Padres just happened to rank number one in ZiPS-projected Giolito impact, with their playoff probability shifting from 55% to 65% upon his acquisition, ahead of the Cubs (+8.1%), Athletics (+7.9%), Astros (+6.9%), and Braves (+6.4%), in terms of the size of the bump.

San Diego’s rotation has been quite solid in 2026, with a 3.53 ERA in the early going, and 2.4 WAR, placing it eighth in baseball. But there were dangers that the front office could not ignore. While there’s a lot more reason to be optimistic about Randy Vásquez now that his changeup and curveball appear to have evolved into whiff machines, Nick Pivetta’s injury was still extremely unwelcome news given the team’s rather thin depth. At the moment, it looks like Pivetta’s flexor strain will not require season-ending surgery, but he isn’t going to be back anytime soon.

Pivetta’s injury left the Padres to fight with the Dodgers for the NL West title with an almost non-existent margin for error in their rotation. Before his injury, they were already banking on Walker Buehler, a big enough risk that he signed with them on a minor league deal, and Germán Márquez, who hasn’t been both healthy and good since 2021. Griffin Canning is coming back from a significant Achilles injury and hasn’t pitched since June, and there’s no firm timetable yet for Joe Musgrove’s return from the Tommy John surgery he had 18 months ago. Yu Darvish is certainly not going to be back in 2026, or possibly ever. Keeping up with the Dodgers isn’t an easy task, so there are only so many wins you can concede while you wait and hope for some good injury news on one of these fronts.

The simple truth about Giolito is that he’s clearly no longer the pitcher he was when he got Cy Young votes each year from 2019 through 2021. If he were, he probably would have signed a contract north of $150 million during the offseason, instead of waiting to be a reinforcement for a contender in need. Even so, last year represented a successful comeback season for him, as he missed 2024 with internal brace surgery to repair his UCL. Giolito previously had full Tommy John surgery immediately after being drafted in the first round by the Nationals in 2012, those elbow questions being responsible for his falling to the 16th pick.

It’s true that last season was a successful return for Giolito, but there are some important caveats to that statement. His 3.41 ERA in 26 starts was certainly solid, but dark things lurked in his peripheral numbers. His FIP was a more middling 4.17, and his 7.5 K/9 represented a 20% drop-off from his 2022-2023 numbers and a third off his peak. Statcast’s xERA was especially negative, giving him a 5.01 for 2025, and though the ZiPS version was kinder, the zERA of 4.55 was hardly top-free-agent material. The goal here isn’t to add an ace — though I can’t imagine San Diego would object if he channeled his best years — but to get an arm capable of throwing some dependably league-average innings. And I think the Padres have a good chance of getting that.

The mutual option has real value to the Padres. If Giolito performs well, he would be a natural fit for their rotation next season should Michael King exercise his an opt-out. (The exact values of Giolito’s option are not yet public.) It’s hard to gauge this kind of thing in a projection, but it’s at least nice that signing Giolito also removes him as an option should the Dodgers or another contender, such as the Cubs, find themselves in dire straits, rotation-wise.

Does signing Giolito drastically change the story of the 2026 San Diego Padres? Probably not, but he’s a supporting character, and if the Padres are able to topple the Big Blue Empire on their seventh try and take the NL West crown, he will likely play a role in writing that happy ending.

Only an act of science could get Jeremiah Jackson to take a walk.

Jackson entered Sunday with 65 plate appearances in 2026. He’d picked up 19 hits, including five homers and a double. He’d also struck out 17 times, grounded into two double plays, lined a sacrifice fly, and taken a wayward breaking ball off his back toe. He’d worked through pretty much every standard outcome for a plate appearance to begin the new season — but he hadn’t drawn a walk. In fact, Jackson entered Sunday as the batter with the most plate appearances in the majors to have not recorded a base on balls.

That was initially the case again Sunday as the Orioles wrapped up their series in Cleveland. Jackson struck out in the second inning, hit a sharp line drive single in the fourth, and reached on an error in the fifth.

Then he stepped to the plate to lead off the eighth. On the mound was nasty lefty Erik Sabrowski, fresh out of the Guardians bullpen. Sabrowski started him with a big curveball in the dirt. Jackson laid off for ball one. Sabrowski pumped his signature fastball, but it ran too far inside for ball two. Sabrowski tried to skim the other side of the plate, but missed too high for ball three.

Then it happened. Sabrowski threw another fastball, this time over the center of the plate. But he again missed too high — way too high — for ball four. Jackson had drawn his first walk of 2026.

Except, he hadn’t. Just as Jackson was prepared to set his bat down, the umpire called strike. Jackson paused, tapped his head, and proceeded with setting down his bat and removing his equipment, with a curious eye toward the video board. In zoomed the animated ball, revealing that the pitch was indeed way up and out of the zone for ball four. Jackson walked to first. Read the rest of this entry »

There hasn’t been much joy in Mudville Queens so far this year. The New York Mets have stumbled hard out of the gate and currently hold the worst record in the National League. That’s far from what was expected before the season, when they were among the betting favorites to win the World Series. You know all that, undoubtedly. We’ve written about it, as have others. But despite that rough start, it’s not all bad. Mets fans also get to experience my favorite thing in baseball so far this year: thinking along with Nolan McLean as he pitches.

McLean is the kind of pitcher you’d design in a lab if your main goal was sheer whimsical delight (he’s also incredibly good, of course). He imparts a ridiculous amount of spin on the ball, which means his pitches move like they have a tiny rocket booster activating midway to home plate (or a minuscule amount of astrophage, for the Project Hail Mary fans out there). Here’s a visual representation of that in our Paired Pitches tool:

It’s actually hard to fit more than one of McLean’s pitches in the strike zone at the same time. His curveball moves more than any other in baseball, with a comical 48 inches of separation from his sinker. His sweeper isn’t far behind; it breaks to his glove side by 21 inches, while his sinker fades arm side by 18 inches, a 39-inch horizontal gap. Home plate is 17 inches wide. You can do the math. Read the rest of this entry »

Every successful professional athlete has to have a strong drive for self-improvement. You start each morning with the goal of being a little bit better than you were yesterday; I’m sure I’ve seen words to that effect on a ballplayer’s t-shirt or social media bio somewhere.

Brice Turang can do you one better: He gets a lot better every year. As a 23-year-old rookie, he hit .218/.285/.300, which is not the kind of line that ordinarily gets a guy 448 plate appearances’ worth of playing time. Fortunately for Turang, the Brewers (for all their other successes) have been pretty awful at home-brewing hitters over the past decade, and Turang entered 2024 as their starting second baseman. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Kansas City Royals. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the sixth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

Dan Petry faced 644 different batters across the 1979-1991 seasons, and while he certainly doesn’t remember them all, his level of recollection is impressive. Now 67, the former All-Star right-hander proved as much when he became the latest pitcher-turned-broadcast analyst to tackle one my a matchup-focused career quizzes. As did David Cone, Mark Grant, Mark Gubicza, and Jeff Montgomery — those pieces can be found here, here, here, and here — “Peaches” reached into his personal memory bank to take a stab at answering my questions, and to provide entertaining anecdotes while doing so. Our conversation took place at Fenway Park this past weekend.

I began by asking him which batter he faced the most times.

“It would have to be somebody in the American League East,” replied Petry, who played the bulk of his career with the Detroit Tigers and is now Dan Dickerson’s primary partner in the team’s radio booth. “I’ll say Robin Yount.”

It was indeed Yount, who stepped in against Petry 89 times. I proceeded to ask which player recorded the most hits off him.

“That might be a trick question, because maybe it is Robin Yount,” said Petry, before going with a different answer. “But I think a lot of my answers are going to be George Brett, so I’ll say George Brett.”

He should’ve trusted his initial instinct, because Yount was the answer again. The Hall of Famer logged 24 hits in 83 at-bats against the right-hander, who went 119-93 as a Tiger and 125-104 overall, while tossing 2,080 1/3 innings over 370 big league outings.

“He is a guy who I’ve always, to this day, have so much respect for,” Petry said of the Milwaukee Brewers icon. “I remember when he was just a teenager. At that time [when Yount was in the majors at age 18], I was a teenager also, and thinking about whether I would ever get that opportunity to play, like he was doing. So, just getting to face him was among my most competitive moments.”

How about the batter to whom he surrendered the most home runs? Read the rest of this entry »

2:03	Brendan Gawlowski: Made sense to take a look at it because we’re going to have a couple new 50’s on the lists this week

Read the rest of this entry »

When the Dodgers signed Edwin Díaz to a three-year, $69 million deal last December, it marked the second straight winter that they paid top dollar for a free agent closer, after they’d inked Tanner Scott to a four-year, $72 million deal in January 2025. That they double-dipped in such fashion was both a particularly ostentatious display of their purchasing power and an acknowledgement that even the best relievers can be fickle and fragile. Scott scuffled throughout last season while also missing time due to multiple injuries, and ultimately spent October as a bystander as the Dodgers cobbled together a makeshift late-game bullpen and won their second consecutive championship. Now, after struggling with his velocity and command, Díaz has also gone down with an injury. On Monday, one day after failing to retire any of the four Rockies he faced, he was placed on the 15-day injured list due to loose bodies in his right elbow. He is set to undergo arthroscopic surgery on Wednesday to have them removed.

Even in small-sample season, the 32-year-old Díaz’s numbers tell enough of a story to suggest that something is amiss. He’s allowed seven runs in six innings for a 10.50 ERA, accompanied by a 4.96 FIP and a 4.39 xERA. His 15.2% differential between his 30.3% strikeout rate and 15.2% walk rate is just over half of his 29.8% differential last year. His four-seam fastball has averaged just 95.7 mph, down from last year’s average of 97.2 mph while with the Mets, for whom he posted a 1.63 ERA and a 2.28 FIP in 66 1/3 innings. His average arm angle has dropped, changing the movement profiles of both his four-seamer and slider:

Relative to last season, Díaz has lost over two and a half inches of horizontal run on his fastball and nearly an inch of cut on his slider, which itself is one mile per hour slower, as well. Neither pitch has fooled hitters to nearly the same degree as before, and his overall swinging strike rate has dropped from 17.3% in 2024 and 18.0% last year to 9.1% this season. Read the rest of this entry »

With big expectations entering the season, the New York Mets got off to a reasonably solid start; through their first 11 games, they had a 7-4 record and a half-game lead in the NL East. Since then, though, things have gone… less well. And after getting swept by the Chicago Cubs over the weekend, the team is now sitting on an 11-game losing streak, a skid that has dropped them into last place in the NL East, a full 8 1/2 games behind the Atlanta Braves. So, just how doomed are the Mets?

While you can’t win a pennant in April, you can certainly lose one. As my colleague Jay Jaffe noted last week, when the Mets’ losing streak stood at a mere eight games, the offense bears a large share of the blame. They’ve scored just 19 runs since the streak began, and have managed even three runs in just two of those games. The Royals, the next-worst offense over their last 11 games, have scored more than 50% more runs than the Mets (31 to 19), and considering they’re 2-9 over that stretch, it’s not like they’re cruising either. The loss of Juan Soto to a strained calf muscle is significant, but it’s hard to pin the team’s offensive woes solely on that. Their 1.7 runs per game is about three runs off both the 4.7 they scored last year and what ZiPS projected for this year, and no hitter in history has made that big of a difference. Read the rest of this entry »