Toward the end of May, I wrote about Pete Crow-Armstrong’s crimes of passion. When the Cubs win a game on a walk-off, Crow-Armstrong isn’t just the first one out onto the field to celebrate. He’s out on the field before the winning run has even scored. The game is still in progress, the ball is still in play, but there’s Crow-Armstrong sprinting across the third base line like a heat-seeking missile, breaking the rules and pulling the hero who just knocked in the game-winning run into the tightest hug imaginable. It’s a pattern; a jubilant, sensuous, illegal-but-not-actionable pattern that plays out over the rising strains of “Go Cubs Go.”

Well, in the past five weeks, the Cubs have walked off their opponents two more times, and Crow-Armstrong has not disappointed. In the bottom of the 10th inning on June 15, Ian Happ walked off the Pirates with a line drive single into right field. Crow-Armstrong was on deck at the time, which meant that he was busy warming up and thinking about hitting. It also meant that he was right next to home plate, so he ended up shadowing Vidal Bruján as he scored the winning run, and only then changing course and sprinting out onto the field to congratulate Happ. For these reasons, he didn’t actually enter the field of play until nearly a full second after the game had ended, but don’t worry. He was still the first Cub on the field and the first to wrap Happ in a big, shaggy hug. His love was so powerful that the energy surge temporarily overloaded the Marquee Sports broadcast system. Read the rest of this entry »

In a race for a playoff spot, every edge matters. Yet all too often, for reasons that extend beyond a player’s statistics, managers and general managers fail to make the moves that could improve their teams, allowing mediocre production to fester at the risk of smothering a club’s postseason hopes. In Baseball Prospectus’ 2007 book, It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over, I compiled a historical All-Star squad of ignominy, identifying players at each position whose performances had dragged their teams down in tight races: the Replacement-Level Killers. I’ve revisited the concept numerous times at multiple outlets and have adapted it at FanGraphs in an expanded format since 2018.

When it comes to defining replacement level play, we needn’t hew too closely to exactitude. Any team that’s gotten less than 0.6 WAR from a position to this point — prorating to 1.0 over a full season — is generally in the ballpark, though my final lists also incorporate our Depth Charts rest-of-season projections, which may nose them over the line. Sometimes, acceptable or even above-average defense (which may depend upon which metric one uses) coupled with total ineptitude on offense is enough to flag a team. Sometimes a club may be well ahead of replacement level but has lost a key contributor to injury; sometimes the reverse is true, but the team hasn’t yet climbed above that first-cut threshold. As with Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart’s definition of hardcore pornography, I know replacement level when I see it. Read the rest of this entry »

On Sunday night, at least one University of Tennessee player is going to get taken in the first round of the MLB Draft. Left-hander Liam Doyle is a lock to go in the top 15, with as many as half a dozen of his teammates (plus four or five Tennessee commits) also in the running to get picked later on Day One.

That’s not unusual these days; since 2020, the Vols have produced six first-round picks, second-most of any program in the country. But it is new. Tennessee had six players picked in the first round proper from 1985 to 2019 inclusive. That run includes Todd Helton and R.A. Dickey, both of whom are older than Tony Vitello, the man who turned a mediocre SEC program into the hottest ticket in college baseball.

Incidental to all this impressive talent development: Five straight Super Regional appearances, three College World Series appearances, and a national championship in 2024. Life is good, both for those in Knoxville and for those departing the scene for pro ball. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. Today that title is a bit of a misnomer; I got back from vacation Monday night, so I saw very little baseball before Tuesday. That said, I didn’t need to see very much to have a great time. This week has been awesome. Home runs both mammoth and inside-the-park, great baserunning by slow guys, bad baserunning by slow guys, reflex plays and dekes; the list goes on and on. We might need the All-Star break just to catch our collective breath before a bustling trade deadline and sprint to the finish. For now, though, let’s just marvel at the week – after my customary nod to Zach Lowe of The Ringer, of course.

1. Unconventional Double Plays
Cody Bellinger has been great addition to the Yankees after they acquired him for peanuts over the winter. He is flashing the offensive prowess that has come and gone over the years, and with Trent Grisham manning center, he is playing the corner outfield more than he has in the past. His glove isn’t as good as it was at his peak, but putting a center fielder in left is still a plus for your team defense, as the Mets learned on Sunday. This Juan Soto line drive would have been a hit against almost anyone else:

Statcast gave it a 25% catch probability, and I think it was probably even harder than that. Catch probability measures how far Bellinger had to run and how much time he had to do it, but that ball was absolutely scalded and had so much topspin that it was hooking down hard in the brief time it was in the air. He caught it by the very end of the webbing; “baseball is a game of inches” is usually about the bat hitting the ball or a bang-bang play, but in this case, one inch separated a catch from extra bases:

Oh yeah, then this happened:

That throw is as good of a play as the catch! At full extension, stretched out awkwardly to secure the ball, Bellinger still managed to find first base on the run and unleash an absolute seed that hit Paul Goldschmidt right in the glove on the fly. Making that catch was hard enough. Making it without falling was even harder. Making it without falling and then throwing a frozen rope on target? Almost unthinkable.

Even after that catch, even with that throw, you might wonder why Francisco Lindor got doubled off. Partially, he couldn’t believe anyone could catch that line drive. Partially, too, he got deked. Goldschmidt no-sold the play, barely moving his glove until he absolutely had to. This isn’t the body language of a guy desperate to turn a double play:

That’s not the perfect angle, but you get the idea. The rhythm of this play, to Lindor, didn’t feel like the kind where he’d need to sprint and dive back to first. When someone makes a play that good, you turn around and go back, but what are they going to do, unleash an off-balance missile while the first baseman you’re staring at barely moves? Apparently, yes!

2. Irrational Exuberance
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is not a good baserunner. That’s not an opinion. He’s been below average in each year of his major league career. He has 24 career steals and has been caught stealing 12 times. He’s slow, and he hits into a lot of double plays. But despite all that, Vlad likes to run. Give him the chance, and he’ll take off. Take Wednesday, for example. Guerrero took advantage of an errant pickoff throw to scamper to second:

You’ve seen that play a million times. Everyone was pretty relaxed about it; in the game audio, you can actually hear Jays first base coach Mark Budzinski calmly telling Vlad “go ahead, go ahead.” But the play wasn’t over:

Yeah, don’t do that. I’ve already mentioned that Guerrero isn’t fleet of foot, but it also took him forever to get moving; acceleration isn’t a strength either. Watch his feet – his first step was actually backwards, out into right field. Adrian Houser was on the wrong side of the mound, but Vlad just didn’t have enough straight line speed to make it matter. To make matters even worse, that was the third out of the inning, at third base, with Addison Barger — one of the teams’ hottest hitters — at the plate. Against the White Sox! Don’t do this.

Don’t do this either:

Now, to be fair, this is a tougher play than before. The underlying cause, though, is similar: a belief that baserunning is easier than it actually is. Elite runners might be safe there. That said, elite runners are a lot faster, and better at sliding, and they’d probably take two steps to their left to better block the throwing lane. That should be an extremely difficult throw for a right-handed first baseman, instead of the easy pitch-and-catch that it was. And once you’re dead to rights, well, hitting the brakes and retreating is a better option than starting your slide so early. You probably won’t survive the rundown, but you might stay in it long enough to give the runner on third time to score before you’re tagged for the final out of the inning.

To Guerrero’s credit, he did try a nifty maneuver at second that nearly rescued the whole thing:

Again, though, leave the high-difficulty baserunning stunts for the high-talent baserunners. Both of these decisions would be excellent if, say, Trea Turner had made them. Knowing what you can accomplish is a key part of accruing value on the bases. Watching what happens when that crucial step doesn’t occur sure is fun for a neutral observer, though.

3. One-up-manship
Kyle Schwarber had himself a game on Tuesday night. He went 2-for-4 with a double and a home run, and that homer was outrageous. Not only did he hit it into McCovey Cove, but he did so more or less flat-footed:

He even showed off another facet of his game an inning earlier, swiping second base off a distracted Robbie Ray:

That brought Schwarber to nine steals on the year, with only one caught stealing. He’s one of the slowest runners in baseball, but he understands the proper application of that speed, generally stealing bases off pitchers who forget about him. He’s not a particularly good baserunner overall, but he’s been picking smart spots to go this year.

One batter later, though, Schwarber tried to double up on his baserunning feat by swiping third. Enter Patrick Bailey:

Schwarber had a great read on Ray; he got an excellent jump in a great spot to steal, with the batter screening the catcher at the plate. Bailey just did everything he had to do that much better:

Watch his footwork there. He cleared batter Alec Bohm and got his lead foot planted at the back of the batter’s box while he was catching the ball. The catch and transfer were both perfect, letting him throw in rhythm. The throw? A laser beam to Matt Chapman’s glove for a tag that got Schwarber by an inch or two. I don’t think Schwarber could have done anything better; he just got beat by perhaps the best defensive catcher in the game.

Bailey is having a miserable season at the plate, but he even outdid Schwarber there, too. The Schwarbomb in the seventh put the Phillies up 3-1, and the score stayed there until Bailey batted with one out in the ninth. Then, well:

It’s hard to imagine a more exciting walk-off than that, and it made for the perfect kicker to this game. Sure, Schwarber had a stolen base and two-run homer, but Bailey had a caught stealing and a walk-off, three-run, inside-the-park homer. Real “anything you can do I can do better” vibes.

4. Two-Way Excellence
Oh, you like inside-the-park home runs? Northern California has your back:

That’s Lawrence Butler leading off the home half of the first for the A’s with an only-in-Sacramento play. It involved the ball kicking off of a chain link fence section of the wall and eluding the entire Braves outfield. That let Butler score even with one of the most nonchalant starts to an inside-the-parker you’ll ever see:

That’s the stride of someone who thought he hit the ball out of the park, but the crazy carom and Butler’s speed made it all work in the end. That’s been a hallmark of his game this year, in fact. He’s not the best defender in the world, but he’s got enough range and instincts to make up for a scattershot arm. He has plenty of swing-and-miss in his game, but he has enough plate discipline to keep his strikeouts from capsizing his offensive contributions. He’s a savvy baserunner capable of hitting top speed faster than you’d think. And he has enough power to make up for any small flaws elsewhere:

Inside the park? Outside the park? Butler has the speed/power combination to accomplish both. He looks like a nice building block of the next good A’s team – not this year’s team, of course, but maybe next year’s. After 1,000 major league plate appearances, it seems pretty clear that he’s a solid all-around player but not quite a star. That’s just fine for both the contract and the prospect pedigree, though – and as a huge bonus, he’s tremendously fun to watch. More home runs like these, please.

5. Raw Power
More home runs like these, too. Jac Caglianone was playing college baseball last year. The sixth pick in the 2024 draft, he looked more like a developmental stash than a plug-and-play star. He played both ways in college, though he was clearly a lot better offensively, and the Royals drafted him with that in mind. But he was raw, with iffy command of the strike zone and a swing-first mentality that led to ugly swings over sliders.

A whirlwind tour of the minors – 158 wRC+ in Double-A, 164 in Triple-A – convinced Kansas City to call him up at the beginning of June. Through just over a month of play, the results have been disappointing; Caglianone is hitting .151/.205/.286, for a 31 wRC+. But the results are lying. He’s been much better than I thought he’d be, to be quite honest. He’s running a 22% strikeout rate, far lower than I would have expected given that he’s chasing 41% of the pitches he sees outside the strike zone, one of the worst marks in the big leagues. The stats might be rough, but the process isn’t; by xwOBA, he’s been about an average hitter, rather than 70% below average, thanks to his prodigious exit velocities.

In other words, over the long run. Caglianone is going to hit for a lot of power. He’s already hitting the ball very hard, in fact, he just hasn’t quite harnessed that into doubles and dingers. But oh my god, have you seen what it looks like when he gets hot? Tuesday night, he did this:

If you want to know how scalded that ball was, watch the outfielders. Those are courtesy jogs, not “maybe I can get this one” sprints. That was 114 mph off the bat, the kind of home run that only the Judges and Stantons of the world can consistently pull off. When you hit the ball that low (19 degrees), it’s hard to leave the stadium. Caglianone is part of that group of elite power hitters already.

One hard-hit ball often begets another. His results so far have been poor, but he’s clearly close to unlocking something. If you leave a pitch over the middle of the plate against Caglianone, it’s going to travel a long way. Look at this nonsense from the next day:

That’s not a reasonable place to hit a home run. It went 466 feet, some real Bo Jackson stuff. I had the volume cranked up on this game, and the crack of the bat was so thunderous that the entire crowd went “ooooh” in unison. He might not have hit that ball quite as hard as the previous one, but he got it at the perfect angle and still tattooed it. His power binges are park-proof; Kaufmann Stadium is the stingiest stadium in baseball for left-handed power hitters, but if you hit the ball as hard as Caglianone does, it doesn’t matter where the fence is.

I didn’t think Caglianone was going to hit the majors this quickly. I’m still kind of surprised at how well he’s adapted to big league pitching; he’s getting attacked relentlessly on the inside part of the plate and chasing 40% of the time, and yet still running reasonable strikeout rates. But I’m not at all surprised at how fun he is to watch – and I can’t wait for more rainmaking home runs, and more mob movie celebrations in the dugout:

Last week, we received a mailbag question from a Jacob Young fan named David. Actually, it was a multi-part question, and the third sub-question was particularly fun: Are we now in an era of Peak Centerfield Defense? It seems like every team has a centerfielder that can go get it.

My gut reaction to this question was simple: Yes, we’re probably in an era of peak center field defense. I suspect the game has probably been in that era more often than not ever since integration, and that peak has kept on rising. I saved David’s other sub-questions for this Saturday’s mailbag, but for this particular one, I thought it might be fun to think it through and dig deeper than I could in the mailbag.

First, let me explain my gut reaction. More than any other position, center field rewards pure athleticism, and the athletes keep getting better. The player pool keeps expanding, and players (and humans in general) keep getting bigger, stronger, and faster. All of this means the bar to make it to the majors at all is that much higher. I’ve got baseball-specific reasons, too. The league keeps getting better at positioning defenders where the ball is more likely to go, allowing them to make even more of their superlative talents. And because we keep getting better at accurately measuring defensive contributions, we’re able to recognize and reward defensive value better than ever.

After saying all that, though, I have to admit the obvious: There’s no way to know the answer definitively. We have precious little Statcast data about Ty Cobb’s sprint speed or Duke Snider’s reaction time. Up until this century, play-by-play data is all we have to go on in evaluating defenders. Sean Smith analyzed that data to create a defensive metric called Total Zone, which is what informs the defensive grades on our leaderboards up until 2002, when more advanced defensive metrics like UZR, DRS, and FRV take over. Today’s metrics are nowhere near perfect, but take a moment to stop and think about how far we’ve come. Statcast can tell you exactly how much time every outfielder had to reach every ball, how far they traveled, how fast they ran, how efficient their route was, and how quickly they reacted as the ball came off the bat. That’s a long way from extrapolating from play-by-play data.

I realize that David wasn’t necessarily asking about the overall quality of center field play, but whether we’re living in a time when we’ve got a particularly high number of excellent defenders. It feels that way, right? Think of all the center fielders right now whom you’d classify as extremely good defenders. My list would definitely include Young, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Denzel Clarke, Ceddanne Rafaela, Victor Scott II, and Jose Siri, and I wouldn’t argue with anybody who also included Byron Buxton, Julio Rodríguez, Jake Meyers, Kyle Isbel, Michael Harris II, Daulton Varsho, Harrison Bader, or Myles Straw. I’m not sure what’s happened to Brenton Doyle, but before the season we would have put him on this list, as well. All of a sudden, we’ve got half the teams in baseball with an elite center field defender.

Now maybe it’s always felt that way. Just to pick a date out of a hat, if you go back to 1999, you’ve got defensive standouts like Andruw Jones, Mike Cameron, Carlos Beltrán, Steve Finley, Darren Lewis, and Kenny Lofton. If you go back to the 1950s, you’ve got Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, and Duke Snider all in the same city. For that reason, I decided to see what I could do with the numbers available to me.

Even if we can’t know the answer definitively, we can have some fun with the data at our disposal. We have all these different numbers – TZ, UZR, DRS, DRP, OAA, FRV – but none of them matches up perfectly. They’re all working off different data sources. They’re all using different methods based on different philosophies. They’re looking at different eras with different styles of play. They’re all grading on different curves, judging players according to the league average in their particular year, which makes it very hard to compare players from different eras. It’s a glorious mess, but it means that we need to think of some other ways to analyze things.

Let’s start by considering how center fielders are earning their playing time. If you’re not hitting well and you’re not fielding well, you’re probably not going to stay on the field. If you’re doing one well, you can get away with doing a worse job at the other. Now take a look at how center fielders have hit since 1900.

That graph is going nowhere but down, and it’s been on that trajectory since the beginning. This season, the league has a combined wRC+ of 92 at center field. If it holds, it would be the lowest mark ever recorded. However, center fielders aren’t worse players than ever. Here’s a graph that shows defensive run value per 600 plate appearances. This is just the Def column that you see all the way on the right of our main leaderboard. Before you look at it, let me warn you that I’m cheating a little bit by showing it to you.

Here’s how I’m cheating. Not everybody is playing center field all the time. It just shows players whose primary position is listed as center field. We stopped using total zone for these numbers in 2002, so the more recent numbers are based on an entirely different formula. But the overall trend is about as unambiguous as it gets. For the first half of baseball history, the numbers say that center fielders weren’t necessarily great defenders, but that changed in the late 1950s, then cemented itself in the late 1980s.

The big reason why this is cheating, though, is because these numbers include a positional adjustment. As you likely know if you’ve made it this far, positional adjustments give more credit to tougher defensive spots and take credit from easier ones. If you look at center field defensive metrics for any one year, they should be right around zero more often than not. However high the bar is, there will be good, average, and bad center fielders, and they’ll cancel each other out. This graph is saying that the bar has gotten higher over time, compared to other positions on the field. That’s all the more apparent if you look at the same graph with the corners included.

This shouldn’t necessarily be my persuasive argument. After all, I didn’t crunch the numbers and decide on the positional adjustments myself. I’m just showing you their effect on the way we value outfielder defense. However, when you view this alongside the decreasing wRC+ of center fielders, the conclusion is obvious. Defense has never been a more important part of the job, and the gap between defense in center field and the corners has never been higher.

Knowing all this, what makes me say that this very moment could be peak center field defense? For starters, players are just plain faster these days – and I don’t just mean faster than they were in the 1950s. We have 11 years of Statcast data tracking every player’s average sprint speed. For each year, I calculated the sprint speed of the average center fielder, prorating it by innings played (and ignoring any player who didn’t play enough to register a sprint speed). In the first three years, from 2015 to 2017, the average center fielder had a sprint speed of 28.4 feet per second. In the last three years, from 2023 to 2025, the average is 28.6. That may seem like a small change, but it’s also taking place over an awfully short timeframe. We can honestly say that center fielders are measurably faster today than they were just 10 years ago! It’s not hard to extrapolate further back in time.

If we extend our gaze a bit to take in the entirety of the pitch-tracking era, we can see that balls just aren’t falling in the way they used to. The graph below goes back to 2008, and it shows the batting average for every ball classified as either a line drive or a fly ball hit straightaway (not including home runs). It starts at .393 and ends at .346. Nearly 50 points of average just disappeared into the gloves of center fielders.

This is pretty stark, but even this graph is underselling the difference a bit. Here’s the same graph, but now it includes wOBA, too. The new red wOBA line falls even steeper than the blue line. Center fielders aren’t just robbing batters of more hits. They’re also better at holding batters to singles and preventing extra-base hits. That drop-off is nearly 60 points.

I think this is about as definitive as it gets. Since 2008, there’s never been a worse time to hit the ball to center field. So far as we can tell, defense has never been a more important part of a center fielder’s job, and center fielders have never been so much better than corner outfielders. In all, we’re probably at peak center field defense right now. And we’ll probably stay there.

Read the rest of this entry »

12:07

Dan Szymborski: Sorry, took me some time to get in!

12:08

Dan Szymborski: Dang, I know I have some but I can’t think of them!

12:09

Dan Szymborski: I did once describe the feeling of getting mad at Hall of Fame voters for not voting for deserving players as Blylevengeance.

12:09

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they’ll go CRAZY, but they may add some depth, especially to rotation

Read the rest of this entry »

Charlie Condon was drafted just last year, so unlike the previous installments in this series, the 22-year-old corner infielder isn’t exactly revisiting “an old scouting report” here. The observations and opinions he is responding to were written by Eric Longenhagen this past January, less than sixth months after Condon was drafted third overall by Colorado out of the University of Georgia. At the time, the young power hitter had only 109 minor league plate appearances under his belt in the High-A Northwest League.

Eric wasn’t as bullish on him as many other evaluators were when our 2025 Rockies Top Prospects list was published. Our lead prospect analyst ranked Condon second in what he described as a “talented but imbalanced system,” but Eric also gave him just a 45+ FV, citing last year’s poor performance during his first professional season as one of the reasons to be concerned; Condon slashed .180/.248/.270 with a 40 wRC+.

The 6-foot-6, 215-pound right-handed hitter is doing his best to dispel doubts that he can develop into an offensive force at the big league level. After recovering from a non-displaced fracture of his left wrist suffered in spring training, Condon put up a 131 wRC+ over 167 plate appearances with High-A Spokane this season and earned a promotion to Double-A. Since joining the Hartford Yard Goats at the beginning of this month, he’s gone 6-for-27 with a pair of two-baggers.

In a twist to our Old Scouting Reports series, here are Condon’s responses to excerpts from Eric’s January write-up.

———

“Condon went third overall, signed for $9.25 million, and then had a no good very bad pro debut at Spokane during which he hit .180 and struck out 31.2% of the time.”

“That’s just baseball, man, “ Condon said of his disappointing debut. “It’s part of the learning experience, and you have to be able to accept failure and take the positives out of it. I think I’ve learned since then. It’s a tough game.

“Some of it was timing,” the slugger said when asked to elaborate. “I was also getting a little big sometimes. I had to clean up some things with my bat path to help get ready for this year.”

“During instructs, Condon played defense but didn’t get at-bats, as if he was being given time away from the plate to reset.” Read the rest of this entry »

Michael Busch had a pretty nice 2024. In his first taste of everyday playing time in the majors, he hit .248/.335/.440 and socked 21 homers on the way to a 118 wRC+. After years spent in the minors in the Dodgers system, he looked to finally be delivering on his high-strikeout, high-BABIP, high-doubles promise. The Cubs penciled him in as their everyday first baseman. That’s not an imposing batting line, but it’s better than average, so the team spent its winter trading for Kyle Tucker, not trying to upgrade from an already-acceptable situation at first base.

You’ll notice that I said high doubles instead of high power. That’s because Busch had desultory bat speed numbers; he was in the 24th percentile with a 70.3-mph average swing speed. It wasn’t an issue of him having a hard swing and a soft swing that he deployed at different times, either. His fast-swing rate, or the percentage of his swings measured at 75 mph or higher, was a mere 11.3%; league average is around 23%. Busch was adept at getting his barrel to the ball and posting good exit velocity numbers, but that’s generally a recipe for doubles instead of homers. He hit 28 doubles, two triples, and 21 home runs last season, about what was expected from his profile. He got the ball in the air a lot and still hit for a high BABIP – sounds pretty good to me.

What do you think Busch could do to improve his performance in 2025? My immediate answer: Swing faster and hit more homers. Hey, check it out! Busch has already hit 18 homers this year in just over half a season. He’s on pace to shatter his performance last season in pretty much every statistic. He’s hitting .297/.382/.562 with a 165 wRC+. There’s just one problem with my swing-hard-and-prosper theory: He’s not swinging harder. Read the rest of this entry »