Ben Lindbergh brings on Hannah Keyser and Zach Crizer of The Bandwagon to banter in a hopefully not-immediately-dated way about the first two days of playoff action, including the Dodgers dispatching the Reds, Dave Roberts using “Strategy,” Aaron Boone’s perceived mismanaging, the flamethrowing Mason Miller and a playoff-pitch-speed conundrum, and more, plus conversation about how teams with byes are trying to stay ready, the league’s many managerial openings, whether running the Rockies is a good gig, the Rafael Devers trade in retrospect, and the best teams to bandwagon, followed (1:33:54) by a postscript.
It’s been six days since Mason Miller let somebody hit the baseball. Actually, that’s not quite true. Until the right-hander caught Michael Busch with a literal back-foot slider in the eighth-inning of yesterday’s Wild Card matchup between the Padres and the Cubs, it had indeed been five days, three relief appearances, and 11 batters since anybody came to the plate against Miller and did something other than strike out. However, six of those 11 victims managed to get their bats on the ball. Three of them did it twice. It’s just that over the past week, nobody has been able to figure out how to square up one of Miller’s disappearing sliders or 102 mph fastballs – yes, his four-seamer has averaged 102 mph over the last three outings – well enough to achieve so much as a tapper back to the mound. Busch’s unfortunate foot snapped the streak at 11, but it did nothing to look Miller look more hittable.
In a fun twist, the all-time record for consecutive strikeouts (or at least since 1961, when full play-by-play data became available) belongs to Miller’s teammate Jeremiah Estrada. Estrada struck out a 13 straight batters across three appearances just last May. In fact, he struck all 13 of them out swinging.
That’s a pleasurably tidy play log. Estrada’s streak only ended because, when he entered the game on May 31 against the Royals, manager Mike Schildt intentionally walked the first batter he faced.
Anytime Miller is on the mound, the general feeling among spectators is astonishment that anyone ever manages to put the ball in play. He just threw an immaculate inning. Since his debut in 2023, Miller has allowed just 0.55 hits per inning, the lowest rate among all 473 pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings. And now, following a 2025 season in which his 45.2% whiff rate ranked second among all pitchers, Miller has ascended to a higher plane. His whiff rate over the past three games has rocketed up to an absurd 61.9%.
Now that the streak has run its course, it’s time to celebrate the six marvels who managed to connect with one of his pitches, no matter how inconsequential the contact. We’ll count down, from the weakest contact to the strongest, starting with Moisés Ballesteros getting the smallest amount of baseball possible it’s possible to get. You can just hear the sound of the foul tip before the ball hits the glove.
Honestly, it’s impressive that Ballesteros got enough of this pitch to make a sound at all. This is a 102.6 mph fastball well above the strike zone. It came in at a height of 3.76 feet, and this season, Miller ran a whiff rate of 55.9% on fastballs 3.7 feet or higher. Even pitchers who don’t throw 102 lean on four-seamers above the zone because it’s so hard for batters both to lay off it and to hit it. This pitch is why we care about vertical approach angle. This pitch is why we’ll never forget the climax of A League of their Own. The pitch to Ballesteros technically went down as a whiff because Statcast counts foul tips for strike three as whiffs rather than fouls, but we don’t have to take that away from him. He gently brushed the baseball, and for that we honor him.
Next up is Dansby Swanson, who got a tiny bit more of the pitch and a whole lot more of catcher Freddy Fermin.
You may think Miller fooled Swanson with a 2-2 slider away, and he may well have done so. It’s also equally possible that Swanson really was trying to keep an eye out for the slider. It’s just that when you know you might see 104 up above the strike zone, trying to look for the slider and actually staying back long enough to be on time for it are two very different propositions. The shortstop was just able to slow down enough to throw the bat head at the ball. It was a great accomplishment, and because of it, Fermin will surely hold a lifelong grudge.
Here’s another two-strike slider that just barely avoided ending up as strike three. Ahead 1-2, Miller missed high and inside to Seiya Suzuki, and this shows you why pitchers tend to think hard in, soft away.
Batters need to catch the ball much further in front of the plate when it’s on the inside, so the fact that Suzuki was way out in front of this pitch didn’t hurt him too much. He still caught the smallest piece of it – so small that he barely kept it from sticking in the catcher’s mitt – but at least he caught that piece with the barrel of his bat. Did he barrel this pitch up? Absolutely not. Did he strike out anyway on the very next pitch? You bet he did.
We’re done with the foul tips now. Up next, we have a group of four regular-looking foul balls. These ones stretch back to Miller’s last regular season appearance against the Diamondbacks on September 27, and they’re all just fastballs that nobody could catch up to.
This is why pitching coaches tell pitchers aim for the middle of the zone and dare batters to hit it, and this is the benefit of throwing harder than just about anyone who has ever lived. Miller didn’t necessarily fool anybody here. They were geared up for the fastball and they got it. It was just too much to handle. Swanson, Connor Kaiser, Carson Kelly, and even contact maven Geraldo Perdomo are doing all they can just to slap this ball into the seats on the opposite side and live to see another pitch. Swanson took a robust hack and looked out to the mound as if to say, “I’m on to you, Mason Miller.”
He was not, in fact, onto Miller, but you can see why this foul felt like a victory.
Now we’re into the really impressive fouls. Here’s Kelly again, very nearly keeping the ball in the field of play!
Kelly is out ahead of a slider on the inside corner here, and he sends a weak popup to the right side that just drifts out of play despite Luis Arraez’s heroic efforts to reel it in. Seriously, Arraez tossed himself over a thick concrete barrier. He must have ended up with a serious bruise, and he took his frustration out on the netting. I wrote about this exact kind of batted ball back in May. Normally when you’re ahead of a pitch, you hit it to the pull side, but sometimes you’re so far ahead that you have to drop your bat head to slow down. At that point, you can’t help but pop it up the other way. If Kelly had been above the ball, he would have hit a weak grounder to the left side – or, more likely, fouled it straight down and off his own foot – but since he was underneath it, he came just a few feet (or one gust of wind) from achieving the impossible dream of facing Mason Miller and coming away with a weak popout.
Last up is Geraldo Perdomo, long one of the best hitters in baseball when it comes to making contact, and more recently, somehow one of the best hitters in baseball, period. Here’s Perdomo genuinely rifling a slider to the pull side.
This ball came off the bat at 100 mph. Perdomo was still way out in front of it. It was probably foul by a good 25 feet at the moment it passed first base. Still, that’s the best contact anyone has made against Miller in nearly a week. Perdomo would go on to strike out like all the others, but he can take pride in knowing that he’s the last player ever to actually hit the ball hard off Miller.
Dillon Dingler is developing into one of baseball’s better catchers. Playing in his first full big league season, the 27-year-old Detroit Tigers backstop banged out 13 home runs while slashing .278/.327/.425 with a 109 wRC+ over 469 plate appearances. Moreover, he was worth six DRS and posted well-above-average framing numbers. His 4.1 WAR ranked third best among junior circuit catchers.
Dingler’s defensive chops extend to his game-calling, which is done in collaboration with Detroit’s pitching group. Preparation is a team strength — last year’s pitching chaos didn’t succeed by accident — and not just because pitching coach Chris Fetter is widely regarded as an adept game-planner. The entire coaching staff is thorough, and so too is the former Ohio State Buckeye, who squatted behind the dish in 115 games this season. (Dingler also filled in at the DH position from time to time.)
The pregame pitcher meetings that precede every game was on my mind when I sat down with Dingler on the final day of the regular season. I was primarily interested in learning how the Tigers go about them, including just what role the catchers play in the dissemination of information. What I found out is that the Tigers — ditto Dingler himself — differ somewhat from most other teams. Not having both catchers in the room, which is the common practice, is an example.
“We do it as the starting catcher, the pitcher, our catching coach, Ryan Sanko, Chris Fetter, and [assistant pitching coach] Robin Lund,” explained Dingler. “That’s pretty much it. It’s usually a smaller group.”
On Wednesday afternoon, I briefly thought that A.J. Hinch had lost his mind. I really don’t know how else to explain it. With runners on the corners and one out in the top of the seventh inning of Game 2 of the Wild Card Series between the Tigers and the Guardians — which Cleveland won, 6-1 — Detroit had Riley Greene, its best hitter, at the plate with a chance to break a 1-1 tie. The Guardians went to the bullpen, bringing in lefty Tim Herrin. Herrin, a 6-foot-6 curveball specialist, figured to be a tough matchup for Greene; he’s been lights out against same-handed batters throughout his career. But then Hinch made a surprising call to the bench. He pulled Greene back and pinch-hit with Jahmai Jones – and now here I am writing this article.
Jones had one key thing going for him here: Like Inigo Montoya, he is not left-handed. He’s also hit lefties much better than righties in his brief major league career, and in his minor league career, too. Greene, on the other hand, is a poor left-on-left hitter. So you can at least see where Hinch’s decision was coming from. I want to give this kind of shocking decision the full consideration it deserves before just laughing it out of the building – after all, what if it was the right call? So let’s do all the math to get an idea of what Hinch was giving up, and what he was getting.
To model pitcher-against-batter outcomes, I first took projections for both players, the granular ones that consider specific outcomes. I also calculated platoon splits for each player by taking their observed career splits and regressing them toward league average based on sample size. I put those two projections – hitter and pitcher – into a modified log5 formula and used it to predict the likelihood of each possible outcome of a plate appearance. Then I applied those outcomes to the game state when Greene’s spot came up in the lineup.
That’s a lot of explanation jammed into one paragraph, so I think an example is in order. Let’s say that the Jones-Herrin confrontation results in a single 25% of the time, a deep fly ball 25% of the time, a strikeout 25% of the time, and a walk 25% of the time. Those are nowhere near reasonable, of course, but just an example. A single would mean runners on first and second (at least) and a 2-1 lead, for a win probability of 73.4%. A deep sacrifice fly? That would get the Tigers to 66.6%. A strikeout? 50.1%. Walk? 65.7%. Average those four probabilities, and the Tigers come out with a 64% chance of winning the game. There are more than four possible outcomes, of course, but this process is how I turn outcomes into win probabilities. Read the rest of this entry »
NEW YORK — Jazz Chisholm Jr. was not a happy camper on Tuesday night. Despite a 31-homer, 31-steal season that included a solid showing against left-handed pitching, he spent the first seven innings of the Wild Card Series opener against the Red Sox on the bench instead of facing lefty Garrett Crochet. After the Yankees’ 3-1 loss, he was left muttering almost inaudibly at his locker with his back to reporters — a surreal scene. Back in the lineup on Wednesday night against righty Brayan Bello, Chisholm went 0-for-3 but made huge contributions on both sides of the ball, with two standout defensive plays and an eighth-inning walk that turned into the decisive run when he motored home from first base on Austin Wells’ long go-ahead single. The Yankees’ 4-3 win kept their season alive, pushing the series to Game 3.
Despite hitting a respectable .248/.322/.411 (106 wRC+) against lefties this year (compared to .240/.336/.508, 134 wRC+ against righties), Chisholm sat on Tuesday night in favor of righty Amed Rosario — who played just one game at second base after being acquired from the Nationals on July 26 — apparently on the basis of Rosario’s owning a 6-for-9 career line with two extra-base hits against Crochet entering play Tuesday. Rosario went hitless in three plate appearances against the Boston ace before yielding to Chisholm in the eighth inning; Chisholm flied out with the bases loaded in the ninth against Aroldis Chapman.
Manager Aaron Boone wasn’t worried that Chisholm’s disappointment at being left out of the lineup would carry over into Game 2. “I don’t need him to put a happy face on,” Boone said Wednesday afternoon. “I need him to go out and play his butt off for us tonight. That’s what I expect to happen.” Read the rest of this entry »
The noble tiger is a rare beast, but Wednesday night, there was a sighting in Los Angeles. A NOBLETIGER, for those of you who are perhaps less online than I am, is a contrived but delightful acronym: No Outs Bases Loaded Ending in Team Incapable of Getting Easy Run. In other words, it’s a team going from bases loaded and nobody out to a scoreless inning, and Cincinnati’s feline accomplishment felt like the last moment before it was washed away by the crushing tide of Los Angeleno excellence.
The Reds started Game 2 of their Wild Card Series against the Dodgers with a burst of energy. A hit-by-pitch, a fielding error, a slashed groundball single, and suddenly the underdogs were up 2-0 on the indomitable Yoshinobu Yamamoto. They struggled to find much more traction against him for the next three innings, nine up and nine down, but those initial two runs gave them a bulwark against the perpetual Dodger onslaught on the other side of the field.
Zack Littell, Yamamoto’s counterpart, wasn’t quite as sharp, but he held the Dodgers at bay with smoke and mirrors for three innings. In the fourth, the constant pressure became too much; the bottom half of the Dodgers order struck for two runs, putting them up 3-2, and the Reds called in Nick Lodolo from the bullpen to escape the inning. After the teams exchanged scoreless frames in the fifth, the stage was set for our fateful inning. Read the rest of this entry »
If there was a blueprint for a Padres victory this postseason, it would look a lot like their 3-0 victory over the Cubs on Wednesday. The Friars got some standout moments from superstars Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Jackson Merrill, and their bullpen completely shut down the opposition behind a solid 3 2/3 inning start from Dylan Cease. The win forces a decisive final game of the Wild Card series on Thursday.
Pitching ruled the day for San Diego. Cease was excellent in his abbreviated start, allowing just four baserunners while striking out five. He generated 15 whiffs on 37 swings — a 41% whiff rate — and his slider was absolutely unhittable. He worked around harmless singles in the first and third innings. Only after a two-out double from Seiya Suzuki in the fourth did Padres manager Mike Shildt turn to his bullpen. After intentionally walking Carson Kelly to get to Pete Crow-Armstrong, Adrian Morejon quickly dismissed the Cubs center fielder with a weak groundout to first.
Morejon pitched two more clean innings, then handed the ball off to Mason Miller. Miller struck out five Cubs hitters in a row, then plunked Michael Busch with two outs in the eighth inning. With a man on first, Shildt again went to the bullpen, calling on Robert Suarez to get the final out. Nico Hoerner lined a pitch to deep right field, but Tatis made an acrobatic catch to end the inning. Suarez allowed a one-out single to Kyle Tucker in the ninth, but got Suzuki to hit into a game-ending double play to secure the victory.
With their season on the line, Shildt was obviously managing to win today. The quick hook with Cease meant that his bullpen needed to cover the remaining 5 1/3 innings. Cease had reached 69 pitches by the time Suzuki doubled in the fourth, but it didn’t look like he was laboring. Morejon had already gotten warm in the previous inning, and walking Kelly to get to Crow-Armstrong seemed like a good strategic move in an early high-leverage spot. PCA had limped to a .231 wOBA over the past two months and had produced just a .250 wOBA against left-handed pitching this year. But that short start from Cease and subsequent heavy bullpen usage obviously has some knock-on effects for Thursday’s game.
Robert Suarez and Jeremiah Estrada have only been used once each in this series, but Morejon and Miller have thrown more than 40 pitches apiece. I’m sure both will say they’re available to pitch for a third day in a row, but Shildt has to be wary of burning them out. If Game 3 is close and the Padres are leading, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Miller for an inning on Thursday. Thankfully, Suarez and Estrada won’t have any restrictions for that final game in the series, and Michael King could be available to pitch if necessary.
Back to Wednesday’s game. San Diego got on the board early, scratching across a run in the first inning against opener Andrew Kittredge. Tatis and Luis Arraez started the game off with back-to-back singles and then successfully completed a double steal with one out in the inning. That put a runner on third for Jackson Merrill, who hit a deep sacrifice fly to get the first run on the board.
Cubs manager Craig Counsell’s decision to use Kittredge as an opener ahead of Shota Imanaga was reasonable. Imanaga has really struggled in the first inning this year — he has a 7.20 ERA in the first frame and a 5.08 ERA in his first time through a lineup — and he’d limped to a 6.51 ERA over his final five regular-season starts. Kittredge had been one of Chicago’s better high-leverage relievers since he was acquired from the Orioles in July, and a quick first inning could have set up Imanaga to face a string of left-handed batters in the middle of the Padres lineup in the second inning. Things just didn’t work out the way Counsell drew it up, and the team was on the back foot from the get-go.
The real killer blow came in the fifth inning. With a runner on second and two outs, Imanaga grooved a first-pitch splitter to Machado. The star third baseman launched the pitch 404 feet into the left field bleachers.
Machado finished the regular season in a bit of a weird slump. He blasted six home runs in September, but his overall line that month was just an 85 wRC+. That was an improvement over the 70 wRC+ he had posted in August, but he was still trying to regain his form after a customarily solid first half of the season.
I’d also be remiss if I didn’t mention how absolutely dominant Miller has been in this series. In Game 1, he struck out the side in the seventh inning. Today, he picked up right where he left off, striking out five batters in a row before a back-foot slider to Busch grazed its intended target in the eighth. And then there was this absolute beauty of a pitch to strike out Kelly in the seventh:
At 104.5 mph, that was the fastest pitch ever recorded in the postseason, and the fourth-fastest pitch resulting in a strikeout in the pitch tracking era (regular-season or postseason). And the pitch dotted the lower outside corner for a called strike three! Miller’s four-seamer averaged 103.0 mph in his outing today. Just look at these absolutely insane results from his two outings in the postseason:
Mason Miller Dominance
Pitch
Count
Whiffs
Called Strikes
Whiff%
CSW%
Four-seam
16
7
1
77.8%
50.0%
Slider
24
4
9
57.1%
54.2%
He’s been completely unhittable. I already discussed his availability for Game 3 above, but if the Padres need him, I’m sure he’ll be ready to pitch another shutdown inning on Thursday.
That decisive game will likely feature more bullpen machinations from both teams. Yu Darvish and Jameson Taillon are listed as the starters, but I imagine both managers will be quick to pull them at the first sign of danger. If there’s one benefit to the Cubs’ loss on Wednesday, it’s that the best arms in their bullpen are rested. Kittredge will probably only be available in an emergency, but Daniel Palencia, Brad Keller, and Drew Pomeranz have all had a day’s rest ahead of Thursday’s contest. That just might give them the edge in what should be a very tightly contested elimination game.
The first inning was a harbinger. The eighth inning featured an offensive explosion for a team that all too often struggles to score. The Cleveland Guardians plated five runs to break a 1-1 tie and went on to beat a thoroughly frustrated Detroit Tigers team 6-1. The season-saving rally evened the best-of-three Wild Card series at one apiece, setting up a decisive finale for tomorrow afternoon in Cleveland.
The Tigers had their chances. Make that many chances — the first of which came as fans at Progressive Field were just settling into their seats. Parker Meadows pulled a groundball into the four-hole that second baseman Brayan Rocchio could only smother, giving Detroit the first of its 17 baserunners (yes, 17) on the day. Center fielder Chase DeLauter — playing in the first inning of his first big league game — then lost a battle with the sun and wind, dropping a fly ball and giving the Tabbies an early opportunity to open up a lead. Cleveland starter Tanner Bibee survived the little-fault-of-his-own threat. Three strikeouts later, the game went to the home half scoreless.
It didn’t remain scoreless for long. Two batters in, George Valera — a rookie with just 17 major league games under his belt — took Detroit starter Casey Mize deep. It was the first of three Guardians home runs on the day, and while it gave them an early lead, it paled in importance to the two that came later.
One of the game’s biggest plays took place in the fourth inning. With the bases juiced courtesy of a Riley Greene double and a pair of free passes, Javier Báez laced a two-out single to give the Tigers a 2-1 lead… or so it seemed. Zach McKinstry was thrown out trying to go first to third, and the out was recorded just before Dillon Dingler crossed the plate with what would have been the second tally. Initially ruled safe, McKinstry was ultimately determined to be out per video review — this on DeLauter’s first career outfield assist. Read the rest of this entry »
Dansby Swanson brought home back-to-back Gold Gloves in 2022 with the Braves and ’23 with the Cubs while leading the majors in Statcast’s Fielding Run Value in both seasons. Although he hasn’t added any hardware to his collection since then, and while his defensive metrics have slipped, he still grades out as comfortably above average in both FRV and Defensive Runs Saved. His defensive acumen was on display in Tuesday’s Wild Card Series opener between the Cubs and Padres, as he made a couple of pivotal, run-saving plays in Chicago’s 3-1 victory.
The Padres had taken the lead in the second inning, when Jackson Merrill and Xander Bogaerts opened the frame with back-to-back doubles off Matthew Boyd; Bogaerts took third when center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong’s relay spurted away from Nico Hoerner at second base. Ryan O’Hearn then hit a sizzling 101-mph groundball, and Swanson, who was shaded up the middle, dove to his right to stop it. He looked Bogaerts back to third base, then threw to first for the out. The play loomed large as Bogaerts ended up stranded.
The Padres threatened again in the fourth, when Manny Machado drew a leadoff walk and took second on Merrill’s sacrifice bunt. Bogaerts legged out a chopper into the no-man’s land to the right of the mound for an infield single, and San Diego appeared poised to capitalize when O’Hearn hit a flare into shallow center field. Swanson had other ideas, making a great over-the-shoulder snag of the ball, then in one motion turning to fire home to keep Machado honest.
In case you forgot, FanGraphs has postseason leaderboards for the entirety of baseball history!
We rolled these out a couple years ago, but now that we have a day of postseason data for 2025, I figured it would be worth a quick reminder. There’s a handy dropdown on the leaderboards where you can select the round (or all rounds) of the postseason you are interested in querying:
Our postseason leaderboards include almost all of the stats we make available during the regular season. This includes MLB Statcast data since 2015 and win probability metrics since 1903.
Let us know if you have any questions, or have trouble finding something in the comments!
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