Tommy John spent 26 seasons pitching in the majors from 1963–74 and then 1976–89, more than any player besides Nolan Ryan, but his level of fame – and indeed, his contribution to the game — stems as much from the year that cleaves that span as it does from his work on the mound. As the first recipient of the most famous sports medicine procedure of all time, the elbow ligament replacement surgery performed by Dr. Frank Jobe in late 1974 that now bears his name, John endured an arduous year-long rehab process before returning to pitch as well as ever. His recovery gave hope to generations of injured pitchers whose careers might otherwise have ended.

By the count of analyst Jon Roegele, keeper of the Tommy John Surgery List, over 2,700 professional players have undergone some variant of Jobe’s pioneering surgery on John during either their amateur or professional careers. That list ranges from Brent Strom — who did not make it back to the majors after becoming the second recipient of Jobe’s ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction technique but went on to become a successful pitching coach — to Hunter Greene, who just underwent his second Tommy John last week. So far, only three are in the Hall of Fame, namely Paul Molitor (the first position player to undergo the surgery), John Smoltz, and Billy Wagner, but Justin Verlander, Chris Sale, and Shohei Ohtani will almost certainly follow in their wake, with more to come. By Roegele’s accounting, over 39% of all major league pitchers in 2025 had undergone Tommy John surgery.

On the mound, John was the epitome of the “crafty lefty,” so good at his vocation that he arrived on the major league scene at age 20 and made his final appearance three days after his 46th birthday. His 700 starts and 288 wins are both more than any other 20th- or 21st-century pitcher outside the Hall of Fame except Roger Clemens, but John’s longevity, his more dominant cohorts — including six 300-game winners — and the surgery that bears his name have overshadowed the rest of his on-field accomplishments. Between going 0-for-15 on BBWAA ballots (where he topped out at 31.7%) and 0-for-5 on Era Committee ballots (where he peaked at 43.8% on the 2025 Classic Baseball ballot), he never came particularly close to election, though in 2013, he got a share of the spotlight when the Hall honored Jobe. Read the rest of this entry »

12:02

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to another edition of my Tuesday chat. I’m just back from a trip to Salt Lake City to celebrate my father’s 85th birthday and the upcoming birthdays of my daughter and niece. While in transit, I learned that Tommy John had passed away. My tribute to him just went live moments ago: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/tommy-john-1943-2026-crafty-lefty-and-firs…

12:06

Jay Jaffe: Not sure about 90%, but maybe 75%. I’d put in more Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball players and strip out some of the 1930s guys who rode the Frisch/Terry Express. More starting pitchers from the 1980s to 2000s. More figures whose influence went beyond the numbers, including John Donaldson, Lefty O’Doul, Fernando Valenzuela, and yes, Tommy John (and Dr. Frank Jobe).

12:08

Jay Jaffe: I think some of it comes down to a perception and public relations. “Let’s get rid of these expensive acquisitions that were mistakes to acquire (Devers, Adames) and keep the homegrown guys we’ve nurtured (Webb) and that the fan base has grown to love.”

12:09

Jay Jaffe: But you’re right in that Webb has more trade value than a contract that is underwater or bordering on it

Read the rest of this entry »

Adley Rutschman and Liam Hicks were hardly the only catchers dealt to contenders in the hours before last Monday’s trade deadline. Much further below the radar, the Dodgers acquired — re-acquired, actually — not one but two backstops, namely Ben Rortvedt and Hunter Feduccia, and their reasoning soon became clear. Dalton Rushing, who had been scratched from their lineup on August 2 due to “minor arm irritation,” landed on the injured list the next day with what the Dodgers initially termed a mild right elbow sprain. On August 4, the team revealed that the 25-year-old Rushing had suffered a partial tear of his right ulnar collateral ligament.

The injury hit the Dodgers almost exactly two months after they lost starting catcher Will Smith to the IL due to an inflamed disc in his neck. He has yet to return, and while Rushing’s UCL tear may not require surgery, it will likely prevent him from catching again during what has been something of a breakout season — albeit an uneven one.

“I would say it’s very small. I hope I’m wrong,” said manager Dave Roberts last Wednesday, referring to the likelihood of Rushing returning to his catching duties this season. He added that the Dodgers are “certainly trying to keep the bat alive for sure.” Shohei Ohtani’s occupation of the designated hitter slot would likely limit Rushing to pinch-hitting, ideally against righties, a potential luxury that the Dodgers will have to weigh against rostering a healthier and more versatile reserve such as Hyeseong Kim, who can play both middle infield positions and center field while being fast enough to serve as a pinch-runner. The current prognosis is for Rushing to be shut down from throwing for four to six weeks, though he’s expected to start a hitting progression sooner. Read the rest of this entry »

12:01

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks!

12:02

Jay Jaffe: Welcome to another edition of my Tuesday chats. In less than 24 hours, I’ll be en route to Salt Lake City with my family as we gather to celebrate my father’s 85th birthday.

12:03

Jay Jaffe: I’ve got a piece on Dalton Rushing’s UCL tear, his various controversies, and the state of the Dodgers’ catching depth chart in the pipeline. Yesterday, i wrote about Max Scherzer cracking the all-time top 10 in strikeouts as well as feats by Gerrit Cole and Jacob Misiorowski, with JAWS and ZiPS odds updates on both Cole and Saturday’s opposite number, Chris Sale https://blogs.fangraphs.com/max-scherzer-headlines-a-big-weekend-for-s…

12:04

Jay Jaffe: On Friday I looked at some precedents to the Adley Rutschman trade, where contenders brought in a new backstop via a midseason deal https://blogs.fangraphs.com/catching-lightning-in-a-bottle-a-history-o…

12:05

Jay Jaffe: And that’s where we are.

Read the rest of this entry »

Even by the standards of his recent, injury-marred seasons, Max Scherzer’s 2026 campaign has been a rough one. The 42-year-old righty has made two trips to the injured list, and through the end of July had taken just seven starts and allowed more than a run per inning. Even on a Blue Jays team destined to be retooled ahead of the trade deadline, he was clearly in no shape to be any contender’s hired gun. Nonetheless, Scherzer’s last two starts have been bright spots, and on Saturday evening, he notched career strikeout 3,516, officially moving him into the all-time top 10.

Scherzer wasn’t the only pitcher who reached a strikeout milestone this weekend. Aaron Nola, who started for the Phillies opposite Scherzer at Citizens Bank Park, collected his 2,000th career strikeout. Elsewhere, in a matchup that pitted the third- and fourth-ranked pitchers on the active strikeouts leaderboard, namely Chris Sale and Gerrit Cole, the latter notched his 1,000th strikeout since joining the Yankees. Then on Sunday, Jacob Misiorowski became the first pitcher to notch his 200th strikeout of the season.

I’ll get to all of those pitchers, but first Scherzer. After holding Philadelphia scoreless through five innings while scattering three hits and striking out three, he returned for the sixth inning and faced leadoff hitter Kyle Schwarber, who entered the day as the major league leader in strikeouts (172) and who on June 10 in Toronto was the victim of Scherzer’s career strikeout no. 3,500. That outing was the only major league start Scherzer took between April 24 and July 27; first he was sidelined by a combination of forearm tendinitis and left ankle inflammation, and then — after lasting just 3.1 innings against the Phillies while being tagged for five runs — a bout of back spasms. He was in much better shape on Saturday evening, and in his previous two plate appearances against Schwarber had limited the slugger to a groundout and an infield single. Read the rest of this entry »

With apologies to Tarik Skubal and the Dodgers, for my money the most eye-catching deal ahead of Monday’s trade deadline was the Red Sox acquiring Adley Rutschman in a six-player blockbuster with the Orioles. Not only did a switch-hitting All-Star catcher move from one Wild Card contender to another, but he did so within the same division — and he’s more than a rental, with one more year of arbitration eligibility before he reaches free agency. Though he’s currently on the injured list due to inflammation in his left wrist, Rutschman is reportedly nearing a rehab assignment, and once he returns, he should provide a substantial upgrade for a team whose catchers landed on my Replacement-Level Killers list a few weeks ago.

Rustchman wasn’t the only prominent catcher on the move to a contender on Monday, as the Marlins traded Liam Hicks to the Rays, but he’s a part-time backstop whose hitting makes him a useful DH and first base option as well. While the concurrence of his being dealt illustrates that trading for a catcher on the fly in the midst of a playoff race isn’t unheard of, such moves do stand out. They’re not to be undertaken lightly because of the weighty responsibility that falls on a catcher’s shoulders in terms of quickly having to build relationships with a new pitching staff to understand repertoires, situational preferences, and interpersonal dynamics. Odds are that those newcomers are also expected to provide more offense than the catchers they replaced, because offensive slumps often spur teams to make such changes. Read the rest of this entry »

12:00

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, and happy post-trade deadline day!

12:01

Jay Jaffe: I’m still recovering from the past few days. I stayed up until an ungodly hour writing up the Luis Castillo trade on Saturday night (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/squeezed-out-of-seattle-luis-castillo-land…) even while knowing that the Tarik Skubal trade would become the bigger news

12:01

Jay Jaffe: Wrote about the Gausman to the Cubs trade https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cubs-land-a-potential-playoff-starter-…

12:02

Jay Jaffe: Rang the Adell bell https://blogs.fangraphs.com/former-angels-in-the-outfield-jo-adell-is-…

12:02

Jay Jaffe: and finally gave Dustin May his day https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-brewers-tap-their-farm-system-to-add-d…

12:03

Jay Jaffe: If you missed anything — and I’m still catching up, because when i was writing, deals were flying around like it was a dust storm — the landing page for all of our coverage is here:  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2026-fangraphs-trade-deadline-roundup/

Read the rest of this entry »

The Brewers pulled up short in their pursuit of Tarik Skubal, but ahead of Monday’s trade deadline, they did augment both their rotation and their bullpen. In a deal with the fading Cardinals, Milwaukee acquired 28-year-old righty starter Dustin May and 29-year-old lefty reliever JoJo Romero in exchange for a pair of outfield prospects, Alexander Frias and Josiah Ragsdale. Separately, the Brewers also traded for 31-year-old righty reliever Antonio Senzatela from the Rockies in deal for two more prospects, left-hander Mark Manfredi and shortstop Juan Martinez.

At 69-42, the Brewers entered Monday with the majors’ best record, half a game better than the Dodgers (69-43). Led by Jacob Misiorowski — whose 1.63 ERA, 2.05 FIP, 40.6% strikeout rate, and 5.0 WAR all lead the majors — their rotation has the NL’s lowest ERA (3.48) and the majors’ lowest FIP (3.54), highest strikeout rate (26.4%), and highest WAR (17.8). Misiorowski and fellow starters Brandon Sproat, Logan Henderson, Shane Drohan, and Robert Gasser are all 27 or younger, and all but Misiorowski and Sproat have thrown fewer than 100 major league innings in their careers. They’re all likely to face workload concerns at some point, so adding another starter at the deadline was a necessity even if he wasn’t someone who might give the team’s odds of winning the World Series a CC Sabathia-sized lift, as Skubal would have. Read the rest of this entry »

Even with rookie Chase DeLauter putting together a strong inaugural campaign, the Guardians have gotten less from their outfielders on the offensive side of the ball than all but a few other contenders. Ahead of Monday’s deadline, they acquired outfielder Jo Adell from the Angels in exchange for catching prospect Jacob Cozart, a move that appears to be a half-measure unless they can fit Adell into the short side of a platoon and limit his defensive exposure.

Currently 57-56, three games behind the AL Central-leading White Sox and occupying the American League’s third Wild Card spot, the Guardians have scored just 3.95 runs per game this year with a 93 wRC+, both of which rank as the league’s second-lowest marks. A lack of offense from their outfielders has contributed significantly to that problem:

Guardians left fielders landed on my Replacement-Level Killers list a couple of weeks ago, as did their first basemen and designated hitters. Their left fielders have combined for just an 80 wRC+, their center fielders a 72 (albeit offset with good defense), but their right fielders have posted a 120 wRC+. Read the rest of this entry »

Given the slew of injuries they’ve sustained within their rotation while running up the National League’s fourth-best record (63-49) — not to mention their lack of an obvious Game 1 starter — the Cubs had as much reason to trade for Tarik Skubal as any contender. Reportedly, they at least considered the possibility of dealing for the two-time Cy Young winner, yet like every World Series hopeful besides the Dodgers, they yielded to the two-time defending champions. On Sunday, however, the Cubs did land a substantial reinforcement for their rotation, acquiring 35-year-old righty Kevin Gausman from the Blue Jays in exchange for a pair of prospects, infielder Ty Southisene and outfielder Brett Bateman.

The connection between Toronto and Chicago made particular sense when I highlighted the likelihood that the Blue Jays would approach Monday’s trade deadline as sellers. Gausman, who is making $23 million in the final season of a five-year, $110 million contract, has a limited no-trade clause that allows him to block deals to eight teams, a list that reportedly includes the Brewers, Mariners, Pirates, and White Sox, all of whom are in the hunt for a playoff spot — but notably not the Cubs. As I noted in late June, at the time they traded for then-struggling Mets lefty David Peterson, five of the six pitchers forecast to throw the most innings for Chicago in our preseason Positional Power Rankings were on the injured list, and seven of the 11 pitchers who had made at least one start for the team (including openers) had landed on the IL at least once. The Cubs’ climb to the top of the NL Wild Card scrum since then justified further investment, and to their credit, less than 24 hours after Skubal was dealt, they made their move.

The trade was actually the second between the Cubs and Blue Jays on Sunday. Earlier in the day, Chicago sent 34-year-old righty Jameson Taillon, whom it had designated for assignment last Monday, to Toronto in exchange for cash or a player to be named later. More on him below, but first Gausman, who has not pitched as badly as either his 5-10 record or 4.38 ERA indicate. Though the latter mark is his highest since 2019, his 3.51 FIP is just one-tenth of a point higher than last season’s mark. His peripherals are only a hair or two worse than they were last year; the big issue is a 51-point spike in BABIP: Read the rest of this entry »