Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to my first chat of June — it’s lovely here in Brooklyn and I wish I could take this outside. I … probably could except I’m not sure how strong the wifi is in the back yard. Hmmm.
12:03
Jay Jaffe: Anyway, yesterday I wrote about the myriad issues that have led to the Tigers bottoming out. At 23-38, they’re still tied for the majors’ worst record, but last night they did win 10-9, scoring more than 6 runs for the first time since May 3 and at least 10 runs for the first time since April 16. The Jaffe Reverse Jinx strikes again!
Daniel Bergman: I know this is a lofty comparison but the Yankees rotation right now has me thinking of ’98, with every starter having ace level upside.
12:09
Jay Jaffe: whoa whoa whoa, that’s a bit too lofty, I think. We’ve seen Cole and Schlittler pitch like aces, and Rodón’s been reasonably close at his peak but right now is dealing with significant command issues that make it very difficult to imagine him getting back to his 2021–22 form. Warren has taken a big step forward, and I like Weathers but don’t see him as having the stuff to be more than a mid-rotation guy.
12:09
Russell: Could it be beneficial for a pitcher to randomly pull out a knuckleball every like 200 pitches
In early February, just before camps opened, the Tigers added both Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander to their rotation. After a rather underwhelming winter full of speculation as to whether they would trade two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, a pending free agent, the moves kept them in win-now mode, making them the favorites in the AL Central. Yet injuries to Skubal, Verlander, and several position players have hamstrung Detroit, and after playing .500 ball through the end of April, the team crashed and burned in May, losing eight series in a row while going 6-22 due to an utterly inept offense. At this point, the Tigers have dug themselves a big enough hole that trading Skubal may be a necessity.
This past week was particularly bleak. First, the Tigers dropped two out of three at home to the Angels, the only AL team who had a worse record than them. After Thursday’s 7-1 defeat, the two were both 22-35, and the Tigers followed that by getting swept by the White Sox over the weekend. On Friday night, after Troy Melton and Will Vest held Chicago to one run through eight innings, Kyle Finnegan allowed the tying run in the ninth. And then, once the Tigers retook the lead with a run in the top of the 10th, Drew Anderson served up a walk-off two-run homer to Miguel Vargas. It was Detroit’s seventh walk-off loss this season, the most in the majors. On Saturday, the Tigers were trounced, 7-1, and then on Sunday, when manager A.J. Hinch pulled starter Keider Montero after he’d thrown six scoreless innings on just 65 pitches, Anderson came in and served up a game-tying solo shot to Colson Montgomery, then yielded three more singles and the go-ahead run. The Tigers lost 2-1, for their 21st loss in 25 games. They’re now 5-13 in one-run games — the most losses of any team in that context — and, at 22-38, are tied with the Rockies for the majors’ worst record.
This is just about the last thing anyone expected of the Tigers. Led by Skubal, they claimed back-to-back Wild Card berths in 2024 and ’25, surging over the final two months of the former season to snag a playoff spot, then spending most of last year in first place, though they faded late and lost the division title on the final day. Both times, they won their Wild Card Series before being bounced in a five-game Division Series, including last year’s squeaker against the Mariners, which took until the 15th inning of Game 5 to decide. Read the rest of this entry »
Last Friday, after missing the entire 2025 season due to Tommy John surgery, Gerrit Cole fared well in his return to the Yankees rotation, firing six scoreless innings against the Rays even while struggling to miss bats. On Wednesday night in Kansas City, Cole truly looked back, this time throwing 6 2/3 scoreless innings while striking out 10 Royals without issuing a walk. The former Cy Young winner’s reassuring performance is a welcome development for a rotation that has weathered some high-profile absences — and will have to continue doing so.
The Yankees began the season with Cole, Carlos Rodón, and Clarke Schmidt all recovering from elbow surgeries, and while the first two have now returned, Max Fried — their most valuable pitcher last season — has been sidelined for a spell, as has 2024 AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil. Nonetheless, the team’s rotation has been one the game’s best thus far, leading the majors in WAR (7.5), leading the AL in FIP (3.22), and ranking a close second in the league in both ERA (2.98) and strikeout rate (24.5%). Despite backing that unit with the most potent offense in the league, the 34-22 club finds itself trailing the Rays (34-19) by 1 1/2 games in the AL East.
Prior to last Friday, Cole’s last competitive appearance in the majors had been a reminder of a golden opportunity lost: His inexplicable failure to cover first base in the fifth inning of Game 5 of the 2024 World Series fueled the Dodgers’ comeback from a 5-0 deficit on a night they ended up clinching the title. Limited to 17 starts that season due to nerve irritation and edema in his elbow after finally bringing home a Cy Young award in 2023, Cole made just two appearances in spring training last year before being diagnosed with a torn UCL and undergoing surgery. He progressed enough in his recovery to make two brief appearances in Grapefruit League games this spring, then continued his rehab by making six starts spread across three minor league levels before returning to the Yankees. Read the rest of this entry »
When he broke in with the Brewers last season, Jacob Misiorowski was tough to miss, unless you were a hitter trying to catch up to his ridiculous velocity. The gangly 6-foot-7 righty announced his presence by reaching 100.5 mph on his first major league pitch and topping out at 102.2 mph in five no-hit innings against the Cardinals in Milwaukee on June 12. He followed that up with six perfect innings against the Twins before yielding a walk and a homer, and was named to the National League All-Star team as an injury replacement after just five starts. He soon leveled off, and finished with comparatively unspectacular numbers — he was an afterthought in the NL Rookie of the Year voting — but this season is a different story. The 24-year-old righty has dominated hitters like a true ace, and has improved in practically every important statistical category.
Misiorowski’s latest outing, once again facing the Cardinals in Milwaukee, was both a gem and an awe-inspiring display of firepower. Monday’s effort began with an unprecedented, if somewhat unproductive, barrage of six consecutive four-seam fastballs to JJ Wetherholt, each clocked at 103.0 mph or higher — but four of them were well outside the strike zone, resulting in a walk:
Misiorowsi overcame the leadoff walk, escaping the inning by throwing just seven more pitches on back-to-back three-pitch strikeouts of Iván Herrera and Alec Burleson, then a first-pitch groundout by Jordan Walker. In fact, he retired 15 straight hitters after the walk, again completing five no-hit innings before yielding a leadoff single to Pedro Pagés in the sixth. The Cardinals turned that into a run after speedster Victor Scott II replaced Pagés on a forceout, took third on a single to right field by Wetherholt, and scored on a grounder by Herrera, but Misiorowski stuck around to complete the sixth and seventh innings before departing with a 4-1 lead. The Brewers won, 5-1. Read the rest of this entry »
Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon! I hope you all enjoyed the three-day weekend.
12:02
Jay Jaffe: I flew solo while my wife and daughter drove upstate to visit my father-in-law (I had to stay behind to dog-sit). Did a lot of dad-puttering around the house, some repair projects, some yardwork, and a trek to Jersey City to see the 50th-anniversary celebration — and perhaps the final show ever — of The Feelies.
12:03
Jay Jaffe: Anyway, back to baseball. Before we get started, I need to note that as with last week, we’re trying a new system with our chats, where you’re required to log in to FanGraphs to ask a question. You don’t need to be a Member, but you do need to have an account, just like you need an account to comment on any article. This is still something we’re evaluationg. If you have feedback, feel free to just leave it as a question, or you can send a note to support@fangraphs.com.
12:03
John Tereniak: Would Phils have been better off signing Machado than Harper when they were looking at both way back when?
12:06
Jay Jaffe: Eh, I’m not sure. Yes, it’s harder to come up with a great third baseman, and the Phillies have had their problems there since then (Alec Bohm has had one season above 2.0 WAR) but I think Harper was the better fit for the city and the culture, as Machado has been for the city and culture in San Diego
12:07
Jay Jaffe: the two are almost dead even in fWAR 27.9 to 27.7 for Harper, and that’s with an additional 107 games missed due to injuries
On April 28, with the Phillies off to a 9-19 start — tied with the Mets for the worst in the majors — president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski fired manager Rob Thomson and named bench coach Don Mattingly as interim manager. Since then, the team has been red-hot, going 16-6 and (briefly) climbing above .500 for the first time since April 7. While they aren’t yet in a playoff position, the Phillies’ season has at least gotten a much-needed reset. Cristopher Sánchez and Kyle Schwarber appear to be on their way to especially productive campaigns, and Zack Wheeler has made a strong return from surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome.
After winning the NL East in back-to-back seasons and making the playoffs four times in a row, at the outset of 2026, the Phillies appeared to have a pretty good shot at returning to October baseball, with a 24.4% chance of winning the division and a 68.8% chance of reaching the postseason according to our Playoff Odds. That said, they did have significant concerns, particularly with regards to their starting pitching and their remade outfield. Their rotation placed third in our preseason Positional Power Rankings, which seemed overly optimistic given not only the question marks regarding Wheeler but also the departure of Ranger Suarez for Boston, the ugly 6.01 ERA Aaron Nola put up last year, and the arrival of top pitching prospect Andrew Painter despite a subpar 2025 season at Triple-A. The remade outfield, with Justin Crawford taking over in center, Brandon Marsh settling in left in place of Max Kepler, and Adolis García replacing Nick Castellanos in right, offered a chance to improve upon last year’s subpar showing, but it was hardly a guarantee, particularly given that García had been non-tendered by the Rangers.
Under Thomson, the Phillies won just two of their first nine series, taking two out of three games from the Nationals at home and the Rockies in Colorado during the season’s first two weeks but losing series to the Rangers, Diamondbacks, Cubs (twice) and Braves (twice) — with a 10-game losing streak spanning parts of their home-and-home series against the last two teams — before Dombrowski swung the axe. It was a surprising move given the Phillies’ success under Thomson, who himself took over for the fired Joe Girardi in June 2022, guided the team to its first pennant in 13 years, and won at a .580 clip while making the playoffs in every subsequent season. Read the rest of this entry »
If you were perusing the Padres’ team stats, you might do a double-take when comparing your first impressions of their performances to date against their standing in the National League West. Fernando Tatis Jr. is slugging .273 and has yet to homer, Manny Machado’s batting average is below the Mendoza Line, and two of their five players with a wRC+ of at least 100 are part-timers. On the other side of the ball, just three of their starting pitchers have ERAs below 5.00, one of whom (Nick Pivetta) has been out since mid-April due to a flexor strain. While closer Mason Miller has been lights out, their higher-leverage relievers have not been uniformly dominant. And yet with all of this, the Padres took over first place in their division on Monday night, after Michael King and friends stifled the Dodgers, 1-0, at Petco Park, the season’s first game between the two teams.
Contending teams have become the expectation in San Diego despite near-constant instability, with the Padres claiming Wild Card spots in four of the past six seasons under three different managers, now all departed in favor of first-year skipper Craig Stammen. They raised their payroll as high as $255 million in 2023, third highest in the game, before cutting back dramatically in the wake of owner Peter Seidler’s death in November 2023 and a subsequent battle for control of the franchise among his survivors. This year’s projected $209 million payroll ranks ninth. Yet somehow through the turmoil — including the pending sale of the team to Chelsea Football Club co-owner José E. Feliciano and his wife Kwanza Jones — the Padres are giving the Dodgers another run for their money.
But how? As you might have guessed given those subpar stats I cited above, the Padres are playing well above their heads relative to their raw numbers. At 29-18, they’re 11 games above .500 despite outscoring opponents by just eight runs, 196-188. They’re a major league-high 4.6 wins above their Pythagorean-projected winning percentage of .519, and five wins above their BaseRuns-projected winning percentage of .510, second to only the Rays. Based on their per-game BaseRuns numbers, the Padres have overachieved on the offensive side, scoring 0.22 runs per game more than their expected 3.98, but they’ve underachieved slightly on the pitching side, allowing 0.1 runs per game more than their projected 3.90. Read the rest of this entry »
Jay Jaffe: Welcome to another edition of my weekly chat. Apologies for missing last week, as I was in the midst of my big Ted Turner/Bobby Cox tribute piece and didn’t have the bandwidth to pull this off.
12:04
Jay Jaffe: Before we get started, I need to note that we’re trying a new system with our chats, where you’re required to log in to FanGraphs to ask a question. You don’t need to be a Member, but you do need to have an account, just like you need an account to comment on any article. We’ll see how it goes. If you have feedback, feel free to just leave it as a question, or you can send a note to support@fangraphs.com.
12:05
Jay Jaffe: I’ve got a piece on the Padres’ surprising spot in the standings — first place in the NL West — despite the underperformances of Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill and others which should go up while this chat is underway.
12:06
Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I wrote about Blake Snell heading for surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow. Dr. Neal ElAttrache will be using the same NanoNeedle procedure as he used on Tarik Skubal — the Skubal Scope, as some are calling it — which could shave about a month off his recovery time https://blogs.fangraphs.com/everybody-whos-anybody-is-getting-loose-bo…
It would be inaccurate to say that that Blake Snell saw what teammate Edwin Díaz and fellow two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal both had and decided he wanted in. Clusters of injuries, such as the wave of broken hamate bones from this spring or the more recent outbreak of loose bodies in pitchers’ elbows, are just coincidences instead of sudden fads or outbreaks. Nonetheless, like Díaz and Skubal before him, Snell will undergo surgery on Tuesday, with the expectation that he’ll return this season.
This is already the second interruption to Snell’s season, and the third time that the now-33-year-old lefty has landed on the injured list since signing a five-year, $182-million deal with the Dodgers in November 2024. Last season, Snell made just two starts for the Dodgers before inflammation in his left shoulder forced him to the IL in early April. The Dodgers’ depth and focus on having their top starters available for the postseason allowed him to take his rehab slowly. He missed four months and made just 11 regular season starts, posting a 2.35 ERA and 2.69 FIP in 61.1 innings, then followed that by pitching brilliantly in the first three rounds of the playoffs, allowing just six hits and two runs in 21 innings against the Reds, Phillies, and Brewers, highlighted by eight innings of one-hit shutout ball in the NLCS opener against Milwaukee. His two starts against the Blue Jays in the World Series were less successful; he pitched his way into jams that neither he nor the Dodgers bullpen could escape unscathed, and was charged with five runs in each. He did come out of the bullpen to get four very big outs in the eighth and ninth innings in Game 7 before yielding to the heroics of Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
In January, Snell admitted that he felt “exhausted” at the end of the World Series. Mindful of his injury history — this is a pitcher who’s made more than 27 starts in a season just twice — and his lingering shoulder soreness, the Dodgers had him delay his offseason throwing program to the point that he didn’t even pitch in the Cactus League. He began the season on the injured list before going out on a rehab assignment on April 22, and totaled just eight innings over three starts, maxing out at four innings and 55 pitches before being brought to Los Angeles. Read the rest of this entry »
Just because the Athletics are leading their division while the Astros are well below .500 doesn’t mean that the AL West is entirely upside-down. Once again, a catcher is having such an incredible season at the plate that his offense is worth talking about, and if the season ended today, he’d be in the MVP discussion. This time around we’re not talking about Cal Raleigh — who just landed on the injured list shortly after snapping an 0-for-38 slump — but Shea Langeliers. At this writing, the A’s catcher is currently hanging with the big boys on the batting leaderboards and doing things that are worth keeping an eye upon.
The 28-year-old Langeliers entered Friday hitting .340/.397/.623, which is not just great for a catcher, but it’s one of the best lines in baseball. His 179 wRC+ ranks third in the majors behind only Ben Rice and Yordan Alvarez, one point ahead of Aaron Judge, and his slugging percentage is third in the AL, nestled among those same four hitters. He leads all catchers with 12 home runs, tied for eighth among all major league hitters. But what really caught my eye is that his batting average leads the AL.
Yes, batting average is the least important of those slash stats, but as I’ve maintained before, at a time when .300 hitters have become an endangered species — the NL had just one last year, Trea Turner — it’s worth giving a damn about batting average again. Batting average is fun; batting average has entertainment value. When batting averages are low, the game is more static, and right now the 30 teams as a whole are slashing a combined .240/.319/.389, down from .245/.315/.404 last year. If maintained over a full season, this year’s batting average would be the third lowest since 1901, ahead of only 1968 (.237) and 1908 (.239). Read the rest of this entry »
Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to my first chat of June — it’s lovely here in Brooklyn and I wish I could take this outside. I … probably could except I’m not sure how strong the wifi is in the back yard. Hmmm.
