Los Angeles Dodgers Top 49 Prospects

Ryan was a two-way player at UNC Pembroke and one of the more exciting pitchers on the Padres backfields during their 2021 instructs period, when he hadn’t yet pitched in an affiliated game. A plus on-mound athlete with a great arm action and a carrying fastball that was in the 93-95 mph range, he was an exciting, tip-of-the-iceberg dev project for a Padres system that had recent success with two-way and conversion arms, most prominently Luis Patiño. Then the Dodgers plucked him away in a trade for corner role player Matt Beaty in late March of 2022, and we started to see parts of the iceberg that lay beneath the surface during Ryan’s first full season as a pro pitcher. He was more in the 95-97 mph range throughout 2022 and was dominant (if a little wild) across just shy of 50 total innings. In 2023, Ryan held mid-to-upper-90s fastball velo under the stress of twice as many innings. He posted a 3.33 ERA in 97 innings with Double-A Tulsa before two Triple-A starts ended his year.

In addition to the plus velocity, Ryan has two plus-flashing breaking balls in an upper-80s cutter/slider that he commands to his glove side and an 80-85 mph curveball with late vertical bite. Ideally Ryan will be able to refine his changeup over time. He’s using it less than 10% of the time right now and its results aren’t great, but he’s a great athlete who is relatively new to pitching, so we’re projecting on that offering. His curveball has enough depth to act as his go-to bat-missing weapon against lefties until his changeup improves.

The visual report here is pretty ironclad. Ryan’s build is a little bit more slight than the prototypical big league starter, but at 6-foot-2, he isn’t small. He has sustained premium velocity over 100 innings of work, his breaking balls are plus to the eye and grade out as plus on paper, and his command is sufficient for Ryan to start and might continue to improve as he gets experience pitching. This is one of the better all-around pitching prospects in baseball, a pretty likely mid-rotation starter who might have significant skill development in his later 20s. It’s plausible Ryan could be one of the best five starters in the org at some point in 2024 and make his way into the rotation, but there are currently so many suitable options already on the 40-man roster ahead of him that’s it’s more likely he gets his footing in the big leagues in 2025.

Hidden under the Henry Davis bushel at Louisville, Rushing finally got to regular reps in 2022 and played himself into the draft’s first day. He was a bat-first prospect on draft day whose defensive issues (ball blocking, throwing accuracy, a general lack of polish as a receiver) might have simply been due to a lack of playing time. Indeed, Rushing has begun to solve those issues while he’s continued to have offensive success in pro ball. At High-A Great Lakes in his first full pro season, Rushing clubbed 15 homers, posted an 18.9% walk rate and slashed .228/.404/.452.

Rushing hasn’t suddenly become an elite receiver or pitch framer, but he’s progressed enough to comfortably project as a catcher. His ball blocking still needs to improve quite a bit, as too often he tries to pick balls in the dirt with his hands rather than move his body to block them properly, and he isn’t skilled enough to do it that way right now. Rushing’s throwing arm has gotten much better, however. By the end of 2023, he was popping sub-1.9 seconds to second base thanks largely to the quickness of his exchange, and his throws were remarkably accurate. It’s not a Gold Glove skill set, but it’s enough for Rushing to more comfortably project as a catcher.

Rushing’s offense is similarly flawed but is viable for a catcher. His plate discipline is a meaningfully good skill that should enable him to run OBPs well above the average at his position. His swing is somewhat grooved (he struggles to cover stuff riding up and away from him, as well as back foot breakers), but it’s geared for consistent pull-side lift and Rushing is going to hit for power when he does make contact. Rushing will likely be one of those primary catchers who hits .210 or so and still performs like an average starter because of his power and on-base skills. He’s on pace to be rostered after the 2025 season.

After he slashed a disappointing .189/.278/.379 at Double-A Tulsa, Cartaya won FanGraphs’ 2023 Resolve-Testing Catcher of the Year award, a honor previously bestowed upon Bo Naylor, Henry Davis and MJ Melendez. Some of the underlying hit tool issues that Cartaya performed in spite of during previous seasons became untenable in 2023, as upper-level opposing pitchers executed to the locations he struggles to cover, which are copious. This is nothing new — Cartaya has had elevated strikeout rates in the lower minors (26% or more) since 2021, and hit tool risk has been a part of his profile the entire time. It will continue to be, but if Cartaya can get to enough of his power and continue to develop on defense (more on that in a second), then he’s still likely to clear the low offensive bar at catcher. The physical punishment inherent in catchers’ duties can have a pretty serious impact on how they perform on offense for long stretches of time. Cartaya’s bat looked unusually slow in 2023 and his max exit velocity declined three ticks from the previous season; his issues were not as simple as him having a low BABIP (although he did at .216). The exit velo decline could point to some underlying malady, or at least is an indication that Cartaya wasn’t in peak physical form last year. He had multiple injury issues in prior seasons (mostly back and hamstring). At age 22, it’s fair to conclude that he’s not in physical decline, and that whatever his 2023 issue, it might be remedied or healed with an offseason of rest. If anything, broad-shouldered, 22-year-old hitters who are built like castle drawbridges, as Cartaya is, tend to merit more projection into their mid-20s.

Cartaya still has developing to do on defense, but he’s a pretty good bet to remain a catcher. His receiving and ball-blocking are still below average (common for a 22-year-old, but it’s frustrating that Cartaya has been treading water in this regard), and too often he fumbles the baseball during his exchange, but his raw arm strength is very good and he has the big, durable frame typical of a primary catcher.

He is no longer on the expressway to Chavez Ravine like it seemed he was a year ago, but Cartaya is still a high-ceiling catching prospect who stands a chance to be an impact regular. One of Cartaya’s option years has now passed. Will Smith is entrenched ahead of him, and fellow catching prospects Dalton Rushing and Thayron Liranzo put themselves in the medium-term 40-man mix with great 2023 seasons. It’s very important for Cartaya to rebound in 2024 so he can enter his final option year as a viable big league option. You could point to any of the Dodgers’ good catching prospects as candidates for trade, and Smith’s presence increases the likelihood that any of them begins their career as a backup, which is especially true for Cartaya because he’s already on the 40-man roster. We’re not totally ignoring Cartaya’s 2023 flop, but our instincts here are to avoid overcorrection and continue to project Cartaya as a long-term primary catcher.

Liranzo still has too much to clean up on defense for us to feel comfortable stuffing him on the Top 100. When he can actually get a throw to the bag off, his Patrick Bailey-style sidearm release works ok, but he so often botches or fumbles his exchange that he doesn’t give himself a chance to get the runner. Liranzo mostly utilizes a traditional crouch when receiving and is a below-average framer and ball-blocker. Both those skills are more tenable and within the range of big league viability than his arm, but at Liranzo’s size and age, it’s no guarantee they’ll stay that way.

There is huge switch-hitting power here — Liranzo hit 24 bombs in the Cal League, hit a ball 114 mph, and had a 48% hard-hit rate last year. He can hit for power from the left side even when he isn’t taking his best swing, and he’s dangerous from the right side even though he uses super conservative footwork, generating everything with a shift in his weight and the strength of his hands. Liranzo doesn’t have great feel for the barrel, which is typical for a young a switch-hitter, let alone one of atypical size. His 65% contact rate is below the threshold of any 2023 big league first baseman (Bryce Harper’s was at 68%, the next lowest was 72%), so there’s substantial Quad-A risk here if Liranzo can’t catch. Whether or not he stays back there is the difference between Cal Raleigh and MJ Melendez from a production standpoint. Arm strength is perhaps a little less teachable than other issues young catchers often need to fix, which is worrisome in this case. He has a little more minor league experience than some of the other prospects who present a combination of extreme ceiling and risk, and Liranzo’s high-end outcomes are driving his placement here.

Hurt was a SoCal high school arm of some repute, a projectable 6-foot-3 guy with low-90s heat who went to school and didn’t get much better as an underclassman. Just before the COVID shutdown, Hurt shoved against TCU (6 IP, 9 K, 1 BB, 1 R) at a heavily attended tournament in LA, touching 95 mph several times. It was the best he ever looked at Southern Cal and he might have dramatically improved his draft stock had he pitched the whole spring. The Marlins drafted him, then later traded him and Alex Vesia to the Dodgers for Dylan Floro. Hurt spent most of 2021 on the shelf and only pitched about 20 innings during the regular season before he looked nasty — 94-97 mph with natural cut and a plus changeup — in the Arizona Fall League.

Over the last two seasons, Hurt has built his innings count to 100 frames while retaining the velo spike, his tailing changeup has continued to improve to the point where it’s now one of the best in the minors, and he’s improved his ability to land both of his breaking balls for strikes. Hurt’s 19.7% swinging strike rate was the highest in the 2023 minor leagues among pitchers who threw at least 80 innings. He’s a heavier guy with a high-effort delivery, definitely a look you see in the bullpen more often than in the rotation, and Hurt’s fastball command is not good. There’s a lot of relief risk here, but we’re buying that the combo of Hurt’s feel for spotting his breakers and his changeup’s ability to bail him out of any count will allow him to start. Hurt has only tended to work between 3-5 innings at a time. He’s an inefficient operator and will probably be a five-and-dive type of starter with elevated peripherals. He’s on the 40-man roster and got a two-inning cup of coffee in the majors last September. He might be on an innings count that pushes him into the big league bullpen toward the end of his rookie year.

Vargas was the fourth-ranked prospect from the 2023 international amateur class, and among 2023 DSL prospects, he presented the best combination of on-field performance and overt physical projection. Vargas has the young Fernando Tatis Jr. build at a wiry 6-foot-4, he bends and moves around well at shortstop, he has enough arm for the position, and he slashed .328/.423/.529 in his first taste of pro ball. Vargas’ contact rate stats were excellent, but he’s a longer-levered hitter, so there’s still a ton of projection variability around his hit tool. His ceiling is huge if it continues to play like it did in 2023.

Pages has returned from labrum surgery looking trim and swift. It’s the second consecutive camp where he’s arrived having improved his conditioning. Pages is an explosive swinger with a very powerful lower body, which he often gets deep into during his swings. His bat path is geared for huge lift, with some of the most consistent and extreme launch in all of professional baseball at 22-25 degrees on average the last two seasons. Pages’ exit velocities are surprisingly low considering his in-game power output (he averaged 25 annual bombs across his ages-18-21 seasons) and the ferocity of his swings. Anecdotally, dips like that sometimes coincide with drastic changes in player physicality like what Pages has shown (Lewin Díaz is a recent example), and he might still progress in this way. Pages is probably always going to strike out a lot; it’s inherent in his approach. He covers the inner two-thirds of the zone quite well, but his desire to pull and lift everything leaves him vulnerable on the outer edge. Pages doesn’t have the raw power of a Teoscar Hernández or an Adam Duvall (Pages had 40 measurable raw at age 22), but he projects to be a similar kind of player: A strikeout-prone corner outfielder with some peak years of huge power and the occasional lean season with too many whiffs. Note the projected game power here topping Pages’ raw because of how much lift is in his swing.

De Paula slashed .284/.396/.372 at Low-A Rancho Cucamonga in 2023, good for a 118 wRC+ — not the emphatic breakout that seemed like it was on the table a year ago, but still pretty strong for an 18-year-old hitter in full season ball. De Paula’s best swings are absolutely ferocious and he’s going to develop huge raw power down the line, as he already has about average big league power right now. De Paula’s explosive hands and beautiful, compact swing (especially for a hitter his size) are characteristic of a heart-of-the-lineup force, but poor barrel accuracy stifled his in-game power in 2023, and he hit just two homers in 74 Cal League games. There’s more hit tool risk here than is obvious on the surface, as De Paula struck out just 18% of the time last season but really struggled against high fastballs and with mis-hitting crushable pitches into the ground.

Again, the amount of juice De Paula is likely to grow into and how short to the ball he’s able to be are enticing attributes that make us scared of undervaluing him here. He’s grown an inch and added 25 pounds this offseason, according to Dodgers personnel. It’s possible that gigantic breakout is coming, but because we’re talking about a corner outfielder with hit tool risk, we’re not ready to push all our chips in on De Paula until he at least proves the power will manifest in games despite it.

Morales had perhaps the best long-term power projection among the 2024 international class infielders, as most of the other prospects with wide receiver-ish builds were outfielders. Morales has wide shoulders, long levers, and a high waist that gives him the look of an early career Fernando Tatis Jr. in the uniform. Morales also has explosive power to his pull side and can already put balls out to dead center field at age 17. Unlike a lot of lanky teenage hitters, Morales’ bat-to-ball performance in amateur events was statistically strong. On film, his hands have a late, deep move that I worry will make him late against pro velocity, but it’s too early to care much about that. Morales bends well for an athlete of his size and build, and he has a decent shot to stay at shortstop. While he’s a skill fit there, it’s plausible that sheer size will force him to move in his early-to-mid-20s. Likely to spend the entire 2024 calendar year in the D.R., we won’t have a scouting update on Morales until deep into the summer when he’s accumulated some amount of pro data and put at least a few games on available tape.

Frasso was an atypical college draftee, with his prospectdom more about projection than present stuff. He started throwing harder pretty quickly, sitting 95 mph early in 2021 when he had merely topped out there at Loyola Marymount, but in June of that year, Frasso blew out and required Tommy John. Not even 11 months clear of the surgery, Frasso looked fantastic on the Blue Jays backfields, sitting 94-96 and touching 97-98 in early outings, and he was traded to Los Angeles for Mitch White not long after that. Frasso then had a fantastic 2023 minor league season, during which he K’d nearly 40% of opponents while walking only 8%. He held mid-90s velo all year, throwing 93 innings in his first full season removed from Tommy John. His breaking ball added more power for the second straight year, as Frasso has gone from a low-80s slurve to an 85-87 mph slider across the last couple of seasons, and he also has a high-spin changeup with lots of horizontal movement.

He made a strong argument to be included on the Top 100 Prospects list, but Frasso hurt his shoulder at the very end of the season and needed labrum surgery in November. It will likely keep him out for all of 2024, is his second major injury in a relatively short span of time, and alters Frasso’s FV more than a TJ because shoulders tend to be more disruptive and can have lasting negative impact. Compounding those worries are Frasso’s mechanics, which are entertaining as hell to watch but not typical of a big league starter. He has a deceptive cross-body delivery that generates huge extension, like a stiffer and less graceful Freddy Peralta. Frasso’s command has been solid in spite of his mechanical weirdness and he has the stuff of a mid-rotation starter, but the injuries feel like a harbinger of sorts. As such, Frasso is tough to “value.” If you wanted to tack him immediately behind Daniel Espino on the universal prospect list you could, which is essentially what’s been done here.

Wrobleski’s nomadic amateur career path wound through Clemson, State College of Florida, and finally Stillwater, Oklahoma in his draft year. Wrobleski had TJ close to the 2021 draft and didn’t get on an affiliate’s mound until the very end of 2022, when he was sitting 93-95 mph for no more than three innings at a time, up above his usual pre-TJ 88-91 mph range. Wrobleski more or less held that velo spike throughout 2023 and actually ended the year with several starts of velo increase, at times averaging 95 mph.

Wrobo essentially has five pitches because of his ability to alter the shape and velocity of his fastball, and he’s funneled his breaking ball usage away from his curveball and toward a slider/cutter combo that he commands very well. Can he sustain this more recent velo spike like he did the first one? The arrow has been pointing up slowly but steadily since Wrobleski returned from surgery. Even if he sits 92-93 and reaches back for more on occasion, he might be a year away from the Top 100 by virtue of his command and repertoire depth.

Quintero is a converted catcher who slashed a ridiculous .359/.472/.618 in the 2023 DSL and looked good playing center field. He’s a bat control maven who has shown an ability to move the barrel all over the hitting zone. An above-average athlete with a medium frame, Quintero should grow into fair power without losing the speed to play center field. His underlying contact rates aren’t as great as the visual evaluation of his barrel precision, and it seems like Quintero’s whiffs come more from issues with timing his swing rather than an inability to move the bat around the zone. This is an exciting skills foundation for an up-the-middle prospect, on par with a mid-to-late first round high school draftee. He might just be scratching the surface of aspects of his ability due to his recent position change.

Stone, the Dodgers’ final 2020 draft pick who signed for just shy of $100,000, is already a developmental success. After he ran a sub-2.00 ERA across 121 innings in 2022 and was among the minor league strikeout leaders, Stone had a rockier 2023 as he dealt with a blister on his right big toe for the first half of the year and then was tipping his pitches during an ugly 31-inning growler of coffee with the big club last year. His changeup is still incredible, a sinking and tailing ball of vapor that generated elite miss rates again last season. His fastball also doesn’t have quite enough carry to miss bats in the zone, and Stone will probably need to mix some combination of his fastball and cutter together when he isn’t throwing his cambio. He came out sitting 95-96 mph in his first 2024 spring outing, harder than he was throwing at the same time in 2023. Though he presents a more typical starter’s build/athletic look than some of the other Dodgers 40-man options, Stone is tracking like Ryan Peiot did where he struggles to find a really good third pitch. The Dodgers have enough starting pitching depth to consider a mid-season bullpen move with Stone, who projects as a Tyler Clippard-ish setup man.

A nice little Day Three find from the 2022 draft, Martin looked good at that year’s instructs, sitting 92-93 mph with riding life and carry to his fastball, while also throwing a shapely low-80s curveball. He then showed a substantial velo bump in 2023, as he averaged 95 mph across just shy of 40 affiliated innings. At a compact 6-feet tall, Martin is not built like a typical big league starter and he certainly hasn’t proven he can maintain that kind of velocity across a starter’s load of innings. He is, however, a pretty special on-mound athlete with a lovely arm action, and his fastball’s underlying characteristics and movement (some which are aided by Martin’s lack of size) should help it play even when Martin doesn’t have peak velocity. Additionally, Martin has the makings of a fantastic breaking pitch in his two-plane slider, which also added several ticks of velocity last year and was often 84-86 mph.

Apart from size, Martin checks every box you’d want a teenage pitching prospect to check. The context of his performance is important to consider, though, and until Martin has shown this kind of stuff across 100-ish innings (which we’re probably two seasons away from actually knowing), it’s reasonable to wonder whether or not he can. For every Marcus Stroman there are many more Deivi Garcías. But especially considering how late in the draft the Dodgers got him, Martin is a very exciting pitching prospect who seems poised to break out across the next couple of seasons.

Heubeck brought a snappy curveball and projectable frame to the table as a high school draftee, and there was hope that he could really pop as a prospect if he could develop more velocity and find more consistent feel for release. After a rough 2022, that began to happen in 2023, as Heubeck righted the ship while repeating Low-A before struggling after a late-season promotion. Heubeck’s fastball added a tick and a half of velo, averaging 93.5 mph across the entire season. He made more consistent use of two distinct breaking balls, both of which have lovely natural depth. Still skinny as can be — Triston McKenzie is a fair body comp and not a bad delivery comp, either — Heubeck has more room for mass on his frame and is still only 21 years old. His power pitcher’s style of attack is inherently a little inefficient from a strike-throwing standpoint, but Heubeck’s limber and loose flavor of athleticism, his physical projectability, and the strike-throwing strides he made in 2023 are all indications that his control will continue to improve. His slider and curveball are distinct enough to give him starter’s repertoire depth. If he can maintain his Low-A performance across an entire 2024 season, he’ll have put himself in position to be a 40-man add after the 2025 campaign. Of the many 20-to-22-year-old high-variance pitchers in the org, Heubeck has the best chance to start.

Osorio is a power-hitting teenage infield prospect with below-average contact ability. He slashed .262/.393/.445 in 2023, his second consecutive season of plus offensive performance. Osorio has all-fields power already despite not turning 19 until April and his frame is still relatively projectable. His measureable exit velocities from 2023 were a tick below the big league average, which is fabulous for a shortstop this age. His pretty, low-ball swing tends to be vulnerable to hard, high fastballs, which Osorio really hasn’t seen a ton of yet, and already his contact rates are in a somewhat discouraging place. The influential skill variable here is going to be Osorio’s defense. He’s a skill-based fit at shortstop right now but as he fills out, he might slow down and move to third. Because he’s probably going to have a substandard hit tool, it will be important for Osorio to either remain passable at shortstop or become a special third base defender if he’s going to fulfill his potential as an everyday player.

Signed for $3 million as a second rounder in 2022, Ferris didn’t pitch at an affiliate after the draft and was handled pretty conservatively during his pro debut, as he made 18 starts but only pitched 56 strikeout- and walk-heavy innings. He was traded to Los Angeles during the offseason as part of the Michael Busch swap with the Cubs. Ferris’ combination of velocity (up to 96 mph), fastball carry, breaking ball snap, and frame give him meaningful upside. His feel for location is so raw that he has a little more relief risk than a typical $3-million signee, though sometimes guys with lanky frames like this gain control of their bodies later.

Ferris has a powerful lower half, bending deep into his blocking leg. He also strides open, clearing his front side to help enable an extremely vertical arm slot. The combination of the two helps Ferris’ fastball have flatter angle than is typical for a pitcher this tall and with such a high arm slot. If he can live more consistently at the top of the strike zone as he matures, his mid-90s fastball could dominate up there. The vertical slot helps him create depth on his breaking balls, and Ferris can turn over a changeup from that slot, albeit with some slot variation. He threw his changeup less than I expected last season and the quality of that pitch was a little worse than my pre-draft grades. The Dodgers have done a great job developing changeups and that pitch may yet take a leap in pro ball. Ferris’ style of pitching with his fastball is such that he will probably always be an inefficient operator, but he has the raw stuff to be a no. 4 starter if he can improve his changeup and command. If his arm strength also improves as he matures, then we’re talking about significant impact.

Changes to Bruns’ mechanics and physique in pro ball have not resulted in improved command; he’s walked 15% of opposing hitters or more at every minor league stop. He still has bat-missing stuff but is now projected to be a good lefty reliever rather than the breakout mid-rotation guy I thought he might be when drafted. Bruns’ fastball sits 94 mph as a starter and he might throw harder in single-inning relief. His slider has tight, late, two-planed movement and is a comfortably plus pitch, while his changeup flashes bat-missing movement but is still too often mislocated. The Dodgers still have almost two full seasons to develop Bruns as a starter and give him every opportunity to polish his control enough for that role, but his track record of walks is simply too poor to this point to expect that he’ll develop enough in this way. His stamina and repertoire depth might push Bruns into the multi-inning bucket, but it’s pretty rare for power lefties to end up in that role, so I’m instead projecting him in the Jake Diekman mold.

There was a stretch when high school Kopp looked like a potential first round pick, as at the time, he was an extremely projectable 6-foot-4 lefty who was already reaching back for mid-90s heat. But Kopp’s ability to find the strike zone evaporated during his senior year, his velocity regressed as he desperately aimed for the zone, and he de-committed from ASU, opting instead to go to South Mountain Junior College, where these issues continued. Fresh eyes got to watch Kopp throw in the MLB Draft League and at the Combine, and rather than fixate on and grow fatigued by his persistent issues, they saw a lefty with huge arm strength and a potentially good breaking ball. Now pro scouts can’t believe Kopp signed for just $125,000.

He spent the bulk of his first two seasons working as a starter for three innings at a time before the Dodgers put Kopp in the bullpen at the end of the 2023 regular season and Fall League. Kopp sits 95-98 and will occasionally touch 100 in relief. His north/south arm slot should theoretically impart big vertical depth on his breaking balls, but the shape and velo of those offerings is inconsistent, nasty at times and hittable at others. Kopp is only 21 and long-levered leviathans like him usually take a while to hone their command. He likely won’t develop enough to be a starter, but he has a good shot to be a late-inning bullpen weapon if he can tighten up his breaking ball consistency.

Yean was one of the hardest throwers in the 2022 DSL and is now one of the hardest throwers in all of minor league baseball, as the 20-year-old averaged 98.6 mph on his fastball in 2023 and struck out 44 batters in 24 innings. Yean will show you 101-102 on occasion, and has a slider that peaks in the 91-93 mph range and features huge break for a pitch that hard. Built like Jason Motte already at age 20, Yean’s frame is maxed out. His high-effort delivery and mediocre control give him relief-only projection, but we’re talking about two potential plus-plus pitches here, so it should be a late-inning role assuming Yean’s stuff continues to be this nasty.

Henriquez is a hard-throwing youngster with a nasty slider who is built like a prototypical NFL quarterback at a broad-shouldered 6-foot-4. He was routinely sitting 95-98 mph throughout 2021 and 2022, albeit in truncated outings that were often 2-4 innings long. His combination of size, arm strength, and peak slider quality made him one of the most impressive teenage pitching prospects in baseball entering 2022, but in the middle of that season, he was shut down with an elbow injury that required offseason Tommy John and he didn’t pitch in 2023.

It’s tough to value a prospect in Henriquez’s circumstances. His talent is on par with a top 30-ish draft pick, but he has only thrown about 50 innings each of his last three healthy seasons (when you combine regular season and backfield work), and he hasn’t pitched in a year and a half. Even if we assume his stuff returns entirely, there are other questions to be answered here. Will the Dodgers’ 2024 rehab plan for Henriquez be aggressive enough to put him in position for an offseason 40-man add, or will they take things slowly to discourage other teams from popping him in the Rule 5 Draft? This guy is a key 2024 eval for rival clubs because Henriquez is a Rule 5 relief candidate if his stuff has returned intact.

Duran has had a litany of arm issues, culminating in a Tommy John after the 2022 season that cost him 2023. He also has a shoulder injury on his resume, and his stuff has waxed and waned when healthy. At his best, he’ll show you feel for four pitches: an upper-90s sinker, an upper-70s curveball he lands for strikes, a mid-80s changeup with action that complements his sinker well, and a mid-to-upper-80s slider with an elite spin rate (both his slider and fastballs saw 300 rpm bumps compared to data sourced in 2021). Duran’s bulky size and violent delivery have been a somewhat scary aspect of his prospectdom since he first showed up on The Ranch, and despite his repertoire depth, there was relief risk rooted in his profile even before the injuries. Like Henriquez, Duran’s 2024 rehab look and schedule is very important because he’s Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season. There was already a lot of relief risk here, and so perhaps Duran’s assessment is a bit less complicated since the Dodgers/other clubs can feel comfortable just ‘penning him rather than concocting a multi-year plan that puts him on track to start eventually.

Knack had multiple freak shoulder injuries as a college underclassman and had 40-grade velocity in the two years afterward. He took a huge leap as a fifth year senior and struck out 51 hitters while walking just one in 25 innings of work before the 2020 shutdown. The Dodgers took him in the second round, Knack signed for just over $700,000, and he’s pitched exclusively as a starter in affiliated ball, amassing a career-high 100 innings in 2023. He’s dealt with more injuries in pro ball — a couple hamstring strains and an unspecified 2023 injury — and his velocity has waxed and waned somewhat, with his fastball averaging just 92 mph in 2023. Knack came into 2024 camp in better shape and was parked at 94 mph in early games. His fastball plays down a bit because of its angle, so it’s important for him to throw hard.

Knack makes heavy use of a mid-80s cutter/slider that he commands the best of all his pitches. His changeup, relegated to about 13% usage in 2023, is his best bat-misser from a rate standpoint, tailing in at around 82 mph, but Knack’s feel for it is less consistent. The 2024 change in physicality here is interesting and has coincided with a velo bump that has given Knack average velocity again. I’m less likely to bucket him as a reliever out of hand, but Knack’s sobering injury history is important to consider. Even if he can start, we’re likely talking about a backend role, pretty similar in value to an on-roster reliever. Here Knack projects to play an up/down role during a 2024 debut and probably again in 2025. After that, I expect he’ll be closer to a bullpen shift.

Signed for $900,000 late last summer, Jang is an athletic, big-framed righty starter prospect with a great delivery and quick, whippy arm. His fastball has been up to 97 with some plus characteristics and his 73-78 mph curveball has big natural depth. He’ll throw a harder and softer slider- the harder version is more of a bullet at 86-88 mph, and the slower one is more of a sweeper at 78-82. His changeup is behind. Because Jang throws so hard, he does have some mechanical violence and relief risk, but he’s comparable to the kinds of high school pitching prospects from the U.S. who go in the comp round.

Feduccia is a fairly well-rounded defensive catcher with above-average bat-to-ball skills and plate discipline. He is especially adept at getting on top of high fastballs and covers most of the hitting zone, only really struggling against well-located soft stuff down and away from him. Feduccia allowed 122 stolen bases in 2023 at an 85% success rate. His pop times hover right around 2.00 seconds, which isn’t terrible, but his results have been poor. His is otherwise a very good defender, as his pitch framing and ball-blocking are both plus. While flawed, Feduccia has a pretty standard backup catcher’s profile and he’s much more likely to do something on offense than Austin Barnes has been for the last few years. There’s a chance he supplants Barnes as the backup in 2024.

The 20th overall pick in 2021, Sweeney adjusted to pro ball pretty quickly despite his small school pedigree and is a career .248/.361/.429 hitter in the minors. The Dodgers acquired him from the Yankees as part of a 40-man crunch trade during the early portion of the 2023-24 offseason that sent Jorbit Vivas and Victor González to New York for Sweeney, who doesn’t have to be 40’d until after the 2024 season.

Though the Yankees only ever deployed him at shortstop, Sweeney is slower and heavier-footed than the typical big leaguer there. Some of the sweet looking plays he makes at the very extremes of his range an average big league shortstop would make look more routine. Sweeney is built like Josh Jung, and it’s rare for an athlete that size to be an impact shortstop glove. Here, Sweeney is evaluated as a below-average shortstop defender, and his ultimate role will likely be a heavier mix of second and third based on his skill set.

This has been the crux of Sweeney’s defensive evaluation at FanGraphs since his draft year, and now we’ve also cooled a bit on his bat. His hands have so much pre-swing movement that we worry he won’t consistently be on time against major league fastballs, and stiffness in Sweeney’s lower half makes it difficult for him to scoop lower pitches. His underlying bat-to-ball performance (like his 8% 2023 swinging strike rate), propensity for airborne contact, and consistently excellent plate discipline is all evidence to the contrary, and it’s plausible adjustments will coincide with the change of scenery. Sweeney tracks pitches very well and check a lot of heuristic boxes (left-handed, performed immediately as a pro despite his small school background) that we tend to like, but he doesn’t have an impact tool or play a premium position well, so he profiles more as a reserve infielder.

When Miller was the 36th overall pick in 2021, there was hope he’d develop enough strength to be an everyday shortstop; the defense and contact components were already in place. That hasn’t happened, and the 21-year-old Miller has had a below-average overall offense performance at every minor league level because he has roughly 30-grade power. He’s still a terrific and precocious shortstop defender with fantastic actions and arm accuracy. A switch-hitter with above-average plate skills and bat-to-ball ability, there’s enough offense here for Miller to be a lower-impact utilityman.

Albertus tends to be a favorite of analysts more than scouts because his on-paper contact rates and control of the strike zone are his most impressive attributes. That’s not to say he lacks old school scouting juice altogether, though. Albertus has athletic lower half usage in the box and a top-hand-driven swing, both of which are characteristics of a good young hitter. He is also adept at moving the bat all over the zone to the eye, it’s just that Albertus is of medium build and well below-average power. He has experience all over the infield, including shortstop, but his best long-term fit is probably third base. It’s totally plausible that Albertus will get strong enough to outperform his current power forecast, which is only okay for a likely corner defender, and his carrying tool (bat-to-ball ability) is arguably the most desirable. Industry rumors from last trade deadline indicate that Albertus is one of the more popular young Dodger prospects when it comes to trade discussions, and he has a chance to be a good player, though he lacks the physicality to be a star.

Munoz has precocious feel for the barrel and is short to the ball for a hitter his size. The combination of his feel to hit and his frame’s projectability is exciting, though with strength and power might come a move from the outfield (Munoz mostly plays a mix of center and right field) to first base. At the very least, Munoz will occupy a corner position. His swing’s downward cut is geared for low-lying contact. It may also take a swing change for him to generate corner-worthy power, or feel for loft may come naturally with time. Either way, swing changes or shifts in Munoz’s batted ball data over a longer period of time are key things to look for as it pertains to his potential breakout. This kind of contact and body projection foundation on a left-handed hitter is uncommon, and I’d rather this than some of the extreme power-over-hit types in the rest of this system even though Munoz’s ceiling is pretty modest.

Tillero was the youngest DSL Dodgers pitcher and for parts of the 2023 spring, he was sitting 95-97 mph with big vertical movement and monster extension. Like a lot of Dodgers pitching prospects, he is undersized but very athletic and has a clean delivery. He also has feel for locating a harder slider, which doesn’t yet have optimal shape. Tillero had a stomach bug in June that put the rest of his season on tilt. He’s a volatile prospect because of his demo (teenage pitching) and distance from the big leagues, but he has the characteristics of a seven-figure bonus draftee.

Smith is a medium-framed prospect with medium present velocity, but he checks a lot of other visual scouting boxes, especially his athleticism and natural breaking ball quality. Because of his size, it’s a little less likely that he adds significant velocity as a pro. He worked with a fastball, curveball, and changeup at the 2023 Draft Combine, and I thought he was one of the better all-around arms there. He’ll sit in the low 90s and the carry on his fastball pairs nicely with the vertical arc of his curve. You can project on the changeup because of Smith’s athleticism and arm speed. There are lots of starter traits here, and this report reads an awful lot like Payton Martin’s from last year. I put a $1.5 million bonus eval on Smith before the 2023 draft and the Dodgers got him done for $700,000. He didn’t pitch after he signed. If he’s had an unexpected velo spike the way Martin did, he’ll climb the list. As he’s currently situated, Smith is more like a secondary-heavy backend starter.

The Dodgers were rumored to be on Jonny Farmelo with their first round pick in 2023, but he went not long before their selection and they pivoted to George for $500,000 less than slot. He’s a slash-and-dash teenager with elite speed. His wheels will enable him to play center field (his feel isn’t great right now, though) and could make him a plus defender out there with development. George is on tape switch-hitting during parts of his high school career but has been exclusively lefty since at least late 2022. His style of hitting relies on his speed to beat out infield hits, with most of his extra bases coming via doubles grounded into the corners. He looked physically overmatched in pro ball after the draft (I know his surface stats are good, but they’re BABIP-driven) and he badly needs to get stronger. Unless he can develop more pop, his ceiling is that of a modern nine-hole hitter.

Ramos is a feast or famine corner outfielder who’ll hit some epic home runs but also have periods of hapless strikeouts. He’s hit about 20 homers each of the last few years, but the Dodgers haven’t added him to the 40-man and opposing teams haven’t bit in the Rule 5 Draft. Ramos will show you big power and when he’s hot, it’s a lot of fun to watch, but he tends to sell out for that power and his swing decisions aren’t always great. He has a low-ball swing that’s vulnerable at the belt and his contact rates are near the bottom of the acceptable range for big league outfielders. It looked like Ramos was breaking out right after the pandemic, but he’s plateaued and now looks more like a low-end platoon option.

Gelof’s draft stock was built on a foundation of data, specifically his consistent ability to lift the ball in the air. His peak exit velos and consistency of lift approached a 70 on the scouting scale at the college level and for Gelof’s age, but the portion of the zone in which he’s capable of making contact is somewhat narrow. A ton of his balls in play are hit off middle-away pitches against which Gelof can get fully extended. He can turn on and crush mistakes, but tailing fastballs in on his hands might be a problem in pro ball. Gelof’s raw power is big, though, and he probably only needs to be a 40 contact bat to hit for enough pop to be a role-playing infielder. Gelof is a fringe third baseman with a maxed out frame, and he’ll have to work to stay at that position. His arm accuracy in particular needs to be more consistent. He was selected higher than he was graded on my 2023 draft rankings and struck out a ton after he signed, reinforcing my pre-draft concerns.

Vanasco has had injuries and velocity fluctuations several times since his 2019 breakout. At times he was working with three plus pitches, while at others he was laboring in the low-90s, and this track record, plus Vanasco’s violent mechanics, prompted relief projection. The Rangers never really gave him a shot to perform in that role under their org umbrella, and after two rough starts in 2023, he was DFA’d and traded to the Dodgers for young lefty Luis Valdez. The Dodgers essentially shut Vanasco down to rework his mechanics on the complex. He re-emerged as a single-inning reliever during the second half of 2023 and seemingly scrapped his changeup. He sat 94-96 with a more consistent breaking ball. He utilizes a vertically oriented attack with gut-high fastballs and downer breaking balls. Vanasco can dump a curveball-shaped pitch into the zone for strikes or elicit chase with something more slider-y, but both pitches are in the 83-86 mph range and have mostly vertical movement. Vanasco came out in the spring of 2024 once again sitting in that range during Cactus League action, again seemingly without a changeup. He has the stuff of a solid middle reliever.

Lao spent seven years in the Dodgers’ system as a hitter before he moved to the mound in 2023. He pitched 57 innings as a reliever and tallied a 73-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Lao uses a slider-heavy approach, which gives him the best chance to throw strikes because his feel for fastball location is poor. He might have a 70-grade slider soon, as his current offering bends in around 88 mph and tends to be located well. Lao sat 93-95 for most of 2023, but he came out pumping 95-98 in the spring of 2024. His fastball has some round-down elements and Lao’s lousy command of it doesn’t help, but he’s still so new to pitching that one can hope he’ll improve his ability to locate enough to be a middle-inning option.

Swan had an ERA north of 6.00 in his draft year but still presents the Dodgers’ dev group with exciting raw material and lots of late-bloomer traits. For one, Swan throws really hard and was holding 96-98 mph velo as a starter at Middle Tennessee. He’s also huge, at a broad-shouldered 6-foot-6, and is coming from a smaller program. It’s feasible things might click for Swan from a command standpoint and enable him to start, but his current level of control is too raw to project him in that role. Swan is capable of missing bats with all three of his pitches, be it his upper-90s heater, his mid-80s slider, or his low-90s changeup. He works with extreme downhill plane, so steep it might actually be good, especially for his slider’s playability. Swan is a very interesting developmental pitching prospect with a wide range of potential outcomes, the most likely of which puts him in a middle-inning relief role.

The Dodgers’ history of drafting pitchers who fell due to a recent TJ continued with Crowell, who was expected to be part of Florida State’s weekend rotation in 2023 but instead only threw 20 innings before he blew out. Crowell was a two-way player as a freshman and worked out of the Seminoles’ bullpen as a sophomore, sitting 93-94 mph with a good lefty breaking ball. His arm swing was often ill-timed and we just don’t know how hard a healthy Crowell would throw if tasked with working a starter’s load of innings, but his developmental context (former two-way guy without a ton of on-mound experience) makes him exciting. If he only ever returns to pre-injury form, Crowell still has the stuff of a bullpen’s second lefty. He has yet to make his pro debut and should be monitored carefully for a leap in stuff when he finally returns from rehab sometime in the middle of 2024.

Gauthier is now a career .291/.433/.433 hitter in the minors across parts of three seasons and hit for unexpected power in 2023, tallying 46 extra-base hits. While that probably won’t continue (too much oppo liner spray, not enough real launch), Gauthier has a discerning hitter’s eye and is a compact athlete who is tough to beat in the strike zone. He’s also a baseball savvy gamer who can play a multitude of positions (2B/3B/LF and shortstop in an emergency). It’s more typical for lefty-hitting versions of players like this to have meaningful big league impact, and Gauthier is more like a Luke Williams or Tyler Saladino type of role player, an above-replacement type likely to be on and off the roster as needed.

A very athletic two-way player at St. Mary’s, Campos was a capable defensive shortstop with pretty decent contact skills, but his uncommon on-mound athleticism, lovely delivery, and arm strength made him a better prospect as a pitcher. He was up to 95 mph on the mound for the Gaels but only worked 34.2 innings during his entire career, a from-scratch dev project with a great looking delivery and some fastball ride, but little else. He went to the Cal League in 2023 and struck out 11/9 IP while averaging 93 mph across 69.1 innings. Campos’ slider command is very advanced, but his raw breaking ball movement is below-average. Changeup development might be his most realistic pathway to a true plus pitch, but the quality of that offering is very mixed right now. His slider command and the playability of Campos’ fastball give him a pretty high floor as a bottom-of-the-40-man starter. Because Campos is so new to pitching, we can project some growth to the secondary stuff and give him a shot to be a stable backend type a few years from now.

It’s become more common for prospects to spend more than one year in the DSL and that’s the case for Rodriguez, who is 22 and only has 24 domestic pro innings under his belt, and has basically been a pro reliever to this point. Rodriguez has an elite frame and body projection. He’s built like an NBA shooting guard at a lanky, well-proportioned 6-foot-6, and his delivery has beautiful fluidity. His fastball sat 92-95 during the regular season and was peaking above that during instructs. The makings of a viable changeup and curveball are both here, with the changeup’s development ahead right now. This is a deep projection arm who has a chance to throw harder into his mid-20s.

Freeland is a viable shortstop defender thanks in part to his fantastic arm, which masks some of his lack of bend and really shines when he has to hurry the turn on a double play ball. While Freeland has all-fields doubles power, his swing is really only geared for low-ball contact, and he swings and misses an awful lot in the strike zone. As a somewhat dangerous switch-hitter and viable defender at every infield spot, there are lots of game situations where Freeland’s skills are helpful and he’s pretty likely to play a sixth infield role down the line.

A two-way player as an underclassman at North Carolina, Casparius transferred to UConn for the 2021 season and began to focus on pitching. He hasn’t had surface-level success as a pro in terms of ERA, but Casparius’ stuff is pretty exciting, especially considering 2023 was just his third full season on the mound. Most impressive is his sweeper slider, which often looks like it’s going to finish in the middle of the right-handed batter’s box before it takes a hard turn and bends onto the corner of the plate. He uses this pitch most of all, both to get ahead of hitters and to finish them. It’s a profile-making pitch, one he’s likely to lean on disproportionately as he approaches the big leagues. Nothing else Casparius does is better than average. He has average arm strength and below-average command; his changeup and cutter are still developing, and Casparius barely threw them in 2023. Both of them have above-average raw movement and need to be harnessed. Developed as a piggyback starter so far, Casparius’ more likely future role is in bulk relief.

Morillo was an interesting low-level prospect during his long tenure in rookie ball, often sitting 93-96 mph with a good slider and projectable frame. Entering 2023, the pandemic and an unfortunately timed TJ had caused him to throw just 1.2 innings since 2019. Out of the gate last spring, Morillo was sitting 98-100 with uphill angle and a mid-80s slider that didn’t have quite the same finish as it used to, perhaps because mechanical tweaks were made to alter his fastball shape. He held that velocity amid conservative usage throughout the season but wasn’t dominant (34.1 IP, 33 H, 26 BB, 48 K), and Morillo was left off the 40-man roster and went unselected in the Rule 5 Draft. Neither Morillo’s slider nor changeup is especially good; he’s a one-pitch guy with below-average control right now. It’s plausible his slider could still take a leap, as Morillo barely pitched for four years and got fewer than 40 innings of reps upon his return. He was again sitting 98-100 in his first spring outing of 2024 and is an older prospect in the system to monitor for secondary pitch improvements.

A Toronto-area high schooler, Wepf spent two years at a community college in Kansas prior to the pandemic season, after which he pitched for the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks until he was an undrafted senior sign in 2022. In 2023, he split the season across both A-ball levels as a single-inning reliever and struck out 88 hitters in 58 innings. Wepf is built like a whooping crane at 6-foot-5, 192 pounds, and the line on his fastball is extremely tough for hitters to get on top of. His mid-80s, two-planed slider is very difficult to spot out of his hand and has enough length to miss bats. Getting Wepf’s endless limbs under control will be key to polishing his command. If he can, there’s a pretty nasty middle reliever here.

Campbell was a high school infielder who ended up settling in right field during his college career at Texas, where he had a power breakout as a junior (he only played a couple of weeks of pro ball after the draft). The compact Campbell has a minimalistic set-up and swing, with basically no stride and a very short load. He’s a dangerous gap-to-gap hitter with this simple operation, which looks as though he’s using a two-strike approach the whole time, expertly guiding the bat head around the bottom of the zone. Campbell does have trouble with up-and-away fastballs at times, and right field is a tough profile when you don’t have a plus offensive tool. I’d really like to see if Campbell can once again mix an infield position into his defensive duties. If so, he’ll likely hit enough to be a versatile part-time weapon.

Jeffrey had a pretty horrendous 2023 as he walked more than a batter per inning, but he still has some of the nastier pure stuff in this entire system and he hasn’t thrown this hard for very long. He’s slowly added arm strength across the last three years and has gone from topping out at 97 to sitting there, and Jeffrey’s best sliders are of the elite, all-world variety. He probably needs to develop much better control just to reach the big leagues, but his stuff is nasty and gives Jeffrey some prospect-y clout despite the hill he has to climb.

Galiz hasn’t been quite as polished a defender as he was billed as when he signed, but he is an amazing thrower of the baseball and does enough with the bat to project as an eventual third 40-man catcher. Galiz’s contact rates were up in 2023 and he’s become a bit better of a receiver. He’s going to have 30-grade power and still needs to improve his ball-blocking pretty badly. If Galiz can become a better all-around defender, then he’ll be more of a stable on-roster backup. That’s in play, but an eventual primary role is not.

Makarewich was an instructs pop-up guy who was already throwing much harder in the fall than he was during his pre-draft spring. Synergy Sports had Mak sitting just shy of 93 mph during his junior year at Northwestern State but he was 96-97 during instructs, and his breaking ball had added nearly five ticks of velocity and was suddenly a plus offering in the 84-88 mph range. Makarewich struggled with walks in college and we’ve only seen impact velo from him for one innings at a time. He’s more of an emphatic arrow up guy from the fall whose initial 2024 look needs to be monitored than he is a slam dunk big league relief prospect.