Author Archive

Eric Longenhagen Prospect Chat: 4/10/2026

12:31
Eric A Longenhagen: What’s up party people? Happy Friday from my old man’s place in Catty, and thanks for being patient while I helped my grandmother with some stuff this morning. I’m gonna keep things to about 45 minutes today so I can catch my flight to Florida.

12:32
Oaktown Blues: Eric, thanks as always for your thorough work and unparalleled depth in the A’s prospect list. This is like Christmas morning for me!

12:32
Eric A Longenhagen: Hey thanks, it was fun to sit on them for a bunch of the spring and feel good about wrapping my arms around the whole lot of these fellas. Kade Morris!

12:33
Oaktown Blues: A 45 FV is a big jump in your eval of Junior Perez, considering he didn’t get a mention on their list last year. What changed for you? Just more confidence in the whole profile thanks to contact and defense gains?

12:34
Eric A Longenhagen: I was too light on his CF defense last cycle and that piece is the biggest reason why Perez > Bolte.

12:34
Dave T: Is MIL Luke Adams’ overly-passive hitting profile sustainable? His contact quality and approach are excellent, but he’s still not swinging the bat enough. And I’m worried about his defense.

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Athletics Top 36 Prospects

Leo De Vries Photo: Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Athletics. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the sixth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »


Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 4/3/2026

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: What’s up hosers? Good afternoon from Catasauqua, PA where I’m seeing family and baseball (mostly Nats affiliates) through next week.

12:02
Guest: Is it possible that Jefferson Rojas has gotten back on track?  True that he’s put on muscle?

12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: We didn’t think he ever got off track so much as he was a young player with an aggressive assignment last year. We had him as the top prospect in the system entering the year, 55th overall. He absolutely looks stronger, was selling out for power a little more than I liked when I saw him during the spring, though some of that was probably Breakout Game pressing.

12:05
Lord Thunder: With 17 walks in 15-plus innings including spring training, how long of a leash does Bubba Chandler have before he walks himself back to Triple-A?

12:08
Eric A Longenhagen: I wish Jared Jones were going to be ready to go sooner than mid-to-late May because there’d be a nice, natural swap there if Chandler is this wild until then. You’re seeing why we had McLean ranked first among pitchers and Chandler in the tier behind him. I’m not too worried about it, long term, athletes with this kind of arm speed tend to take a minute to reign it in. They could just let him struggle and learn on the fly and I think it’d be fine. Don’t burn an option year unless you really, really have to.

12:08
Jim: How fast should Jamie Arnold move through the minors?

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2026 Positional Power Rankings: Bullpen (No. 1-15)

Matt Marton-Imagn Images

There are some positions for which a cleaner, wider gap exists between the top teams and the bottom, where we can more definitively say that some teams are better than others. For instance, the talent that the Dodgers and Astros have at DH separates their projections from the rest of baseball in a meaningful way. Relief pitching is not one of these positions. As you digest the forecasts and player details below, make sure to note how thin the margins tend to be from one team to the next. Also know that relief inning sample sizes are small enough that this is where WAR is the least good at properly calibrating impact and value, a dynamic heightened in the playoffs when the remaining bullpens are all turbocharged by the way the postseason schedule allows for rest, or for an elite starter to work an inning on his bullpen day. Things like coherent managerial usage, roster management, and good or bad health luck tend to play a huge role in the way bullpens perform throughout a season, and those are factors we can’t totally control for here. I felt free to point out the situations in which I think the projection is off base. Read the rest of this entry »


Exclusive: MLB To Implement Experimental Minor League Rule Changes for 2026

Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Several times during the last half decade, Major League Baseball has piloted rule changes in the minor leagues, some that have already been implemented at the highest level and others that remain purely experimental. Over the weekend, I learned about a league memo circulating among baseball operations departments regarding various experimental rule changes that will be tested during the upcoming minor league season; I then acquired the document from a club source.

This memo, which has not been previously reported, was sent to general managers, assistant general managers, farm directors, and player development personnel with the request that it be relayed to managers and coaches throughout the organization. I have excerpts from the memo below, as well as some thoughts spawned by its contents. Some of the rule changes being piloted in 2026 are aimed at augmenting the game’s aesthetic, others at further increasing the pace of play. Some of them seem like they’re for player development purposes only and not likely to be a future big league feature. Read the rest of this entry »


Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 3/13/26

12:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe where the temps are starting to crank to 20+ degrees above what is typical for March. I’m sure it’s fine, my dad says this is just cyclical.

12:01
DR: Are the Yankees doing something specifically bad with their high dollar international talent?  I know the fail rate is pretty high when considering a 14-17 year old population. But it seems (perhaps because NYY prospects get more publicity generally) that they have had significantly worse outcomes among their high dollar guys.

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Agreeing to deals earlier and earlier opens you up to more risk of failure. It’s already a volatile market due to the youth of the players on signing day, the error bar is bigger when you’re reaching verbal agreements with 12- and 13-year-olds, to say nothing of the ethics of it.

12:03
Seth: If you’re Steve Cohen, should you leverage your immense wealth to find advantages beyond the field, like building an electrical substation near Dodger Stadium?

12:06
Eric A Longenhagen: Have a robust scouting staff even as teams like the Cubs and Braves hemorrhage scouts. Start cultivating and/or understanding talent in places that are either largely unscouted (like Africa) or places with a finite amount of space, like Asia. Obviously, the Dodgers have already manufactured a revenue and talent stream from Asia and have a head start in Africa. Better get going.

12:06
DR: Does Vance “Spring Training Babe Ruth” Honeycutt’s absurd ST output allay any fears that came up during his bad 2025?  I know Aberdeen is a terrible place to hit, but he was bad everywhere. I don’t think anyone who saw him in Aberdeen would’ve predicted this many HRs in 2026 as a whole, let alone ST

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 3/6/26

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: What’s up everyone? Good morning from the FanGraphs Desert Vista Compound where I’ve got double-barrel action on the TVs already: Cuba/Panama and a mix of the very early college games…

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: The Mets list ran today, so folks should check that out. Braves and Yankees are next.

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s hang out for a while today and watch some sports.

12:04
Alex: Can you see the Braves farm system ranking mid range by next year? Large draft bonus pool for the 2026 draft and Alfredo Sena signing next January?

12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Probably still toward the bottom, growing prospects into 55 FV guys or better is what really moves the needle on our rankings.

12:05
Scotty: Afternoon Eric. Anyone you’re impressed with that you’ve seen recently on the backfields?

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 2/27/26

12:00
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe, where we’re creeping into the 90s this weekend. Thanks for stopping by, let’s talk some ball.

12:00
Alex: Can you tell us who is next up for the team prospect lists?

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Mets and Braves are next, Yankees and Astros deeper in the mix. Extra deep and weirdly specific: Washington is on track for the second week of April because I’ll see Rochester, Wilmington and Harrisburg the first series and a half of the minor league season.

12:02
Go Mudcats: Hey Eric, hope you are doing well. In thinking about the Pirates and Griffin breaking camp with the big team, I’ve been trying to figure out what the downside is specifically. I understand that development can get messed up/stunted by rushing prospects, but how exactly would that present and why would 2 or 3 months in AAA keep that from happening?

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: I think there’d be an end-of-season benefit to getting his feet wet immediately. Move his adjustment period and the pomp and circumstance of his call-up to the start of the season, get it over with, and give your team a chance of having a rooted, productive Griffin from May on instead of July on, or something…

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: But in this case you’re the Pirates. You’ve gotta max out how long you have this guy.

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Updating the 2026 Draft Rankings

Steven Branscombe-Imagn Images

Today is the first day of the 2026 college baseball season, and to celebrate, I’m cutting the ribbon on our 2026 draft rankings and scouting reports. They’re now live on The Board, so head over there for all of these players’ tool grades and blurbs. In this piece, I’ll touch on several individual players who I think are among this year’s best and most interesting prospects for readers to watch and monitor over the next five months as we approach July’s draft in Philadelphia (I can’t wait). I’ll also discuss the class as a whole from a talent standpoint, as well as which teams are in position to have a huge draft.

First, some quick housekeeping on the rankings. I’ve got 51 players on The Board right now. I’ve hard-ranked the players with a 40+ FV and above, while the 40-FV players are clustered by demographic below them. Draft-eligible sophomores are denoted with an asterisks. At this stage in the draft process, players are more in neighborhoods or clusters. It’s too early to have many dozens of players ordinally ranked in a way that won’t change drastically between now and draft day, especially once we get beyond the players who fit within the first two rounds. More players will be added to The Board as the spring progresses.

This is also your reminder that we now have college leaderboards on the site, as well as college player pages, all of which I will be wearing out this spring as the class produces another season of data. Read the rest of this entry »


How’s My Driving: 2019 Top 100 Audit

Kiyoshi Mio and David Frerker, Imagn Images

I have been FanGraphs’ Lead Prospect Analyst since the summer of 2016, and enough time has now passed that many of the players from the early era of my prospecting here have had big league careers unfold (or fail to). Hindsight allows me to have a pretty definitive idea of whether my call on a player was right or wrong in a binary sense, and to gauge any gap that may exist between my evaluation and what the player ultimately became. Looking back allows me to rate my approach to grading and ranking players so that I might begin to establish some baselines of self-assessment and see how I perform compared to my peers at other publications. For the third year — the 2017 review is here, while the 2018 review is here — I have gathered the various Top 100 prospect rankings from seven years ago for the purposes of such a self-assessment, an exercise I call “How’s My Driving?” This is my audit of the 2019 rankings. Read the rest of this entry »