He swung and missed a lot during his showcase summer but Witt’s subsequent fall and spring were strong enough to make him second overall pick of the 2019 draft class. His skillset compares quite closely to Trevor Story‘s. There are going to be some strikeouts but Witt is a big, athletic specimen who is very likely to not only stay at shortstop but be quite good there. He also has a swing geared for pull side lift (he can bend at the waist to go down and yank balls away from him, too) and the power to hit balls out even when he swings a little flat-footed. He is the son of a former big leaguer and carries himself like one, which has endeared him to scouts and coaches during the course of a high-profile amateur career laden with very high expectations. His debut statline lacked power on the surface, but the batted ball data suggests we shouldn’t worry.

On the Cape and in the first half of his junior spring, Lynch looked like a solid third round prospect, a pitchability lefty sitting 88-92 mph with mostly average stuff, and above-average feel and command. In the month or so leading up to the draft, Lynch’s velo ticked up, and down the stretch he sat 92-94, touching 95 mph deep into starts, with an assortment of offspeed pitches that all flashed above-average. The track record of Virginia arms is concerning, but Lynch seemed less beholden to the issues traditionally associated with their prospects, with some scouts considering him endearingly rebellious.

He throws a cutter, slider, curveball, and changeup that all flash above-average, with the slider occasionally flashing plus. He was 93-95 last year, and while Lynch missed a month and a half with an arm injury last summer, all of that velo and more was back in the fall, so the velo uptick has held for nearly a year now. He’s a No. 4 starter.

A dominant junior year would have had Bubic in the late first round mix, but his control backed up, especially late in the year. He ended up being a great buy-low value pick for Kansas City as not only did the strikes return, but Bubic was throwing a little harder, too.

He’s far more likely to hang around the 50/45 FV membrane during the rest of his time in the minors than he is to move way up the list, because even though my notes have Bubic up to 95 last year, he still lives in the low-90s and succeeds because of deception and his terrific secondary stuff. I prefer his changeup and curveball to the bat-missing weapons of other arms in Kansas City’s system (Jackson Kowar has a great change and throws a heavy sinker that doesn’t miss bats, while Brady Singer is a sinker/command guy) and think Bubic will be a No. 4.

Well-regarded in high school in part because of his very loose and athletic (if somewhat unusual) delivery, the Blue Jays drafted Singer in the 2015 second round. Negotiations broke down, one of several times a high school pitcher has been at odds with an org run by current Braves GM Alex Anthopolous, and Singer went to Florida. After an uneven but promising freshman year in the bullpen, Singer’s command improved and he carved up SEC lineups for the next two years.

His stuff and delivery don’t have the look of a dominant, whiff-getting major league starter, at least not at the moment. He has a lower, three-quarters delivery that helps create long tail on his two-seamer, but the pitch only resides in the 91-94 mph area, a 45 raw velocity that I think plays a bit better because of the movement. His low-80s slurve/slider (when it’s down below hitters’ knees it has more length) gets buffed by Singer’s command and also plays up above its raw quality. Singer is a spiky competitor who goes right at hitters and at times has demonstrative body language when he’s frustrated with umpires, which are generally traits the industry likes. On talent, he’s a No. 4/5 type of starter for me, and any change to that will be determined by how Singer’s changeup, which he barely used in college, develops in pro ball. The (+) designation on Singer’s FV comes from his track record of durability, and his potential to eat a ton of innings and have a higher WAR output than you’d think given his stuff alone.

As an amateur, Peña was billed as a well-rounded, instinctive player with a frame that portended a fair amount of additional mass. Though not as overtly projectable as the Kristian Robinson/Alexander Ramirez sorts, Peña was clearly going to grow into some power and, based on how he hit in games and played center field, was thought to have a strong chance to become a well-rounded player, perhaps a five-tool sort, with all the tools close to average. It was surprising then that Peña arrived for his first fall instructional league looking like an NFL cornerback, with one source going so far as to tell me they think Peña has a big league body right now.

Even though his swing is a bit clunky, and his footwork is perhaps unnecessarily conservative, Peña looked pretty comfortable against pro pitching in the fall, the best pitching he’s ever faced in his life to this point; his performance included him roping a single off of Michael Kopech, who was sitting 97 that day. The surprising physicality has already brought about more power and bat speed, and Peña already has the helicopter overhead finish to his swing à la Miguel Andújar and Wander Franco. Once the industry becomes more confident in grading his defense and bat, which will come once he’s faced pro pitching for an extended period of time, he could be a global top 50 prospect based on his place on the defensive spectrum and the hit/power combination.

“What’s the difference between this guy and Chris Paddack?” That was the question put to me about Kowar by a source for this list. On some level, they’re right. Like Paddack, Kowar has a prototypical frame, he throws in the mid-90s, and has a dominant changeup. What we now know about how and why fastballs play, however, creates some separation between the two. Though Kowar has premium starter fastball velocity, the pitch has tailing/sinking action rather than Paddack-style carry and ride, which means it’s going to generate groundballs more than it will miss bats.

Kowar’s breaking ball was comfortably below average in college but the Royals have found a way to add raw spin since acquiring him (his rates are up from 2150 rpm to 2400, still shy of big league average but an encouraging development), and it’s closer to average now. He’ll likely rely on the element of surprise and his ability to locate it in order to be effective. This is all very similar to how Luke Weaver’s reports read coming out of Florida State, and I expect Kowar to have a similar career. He’s a 23-year-old who’s thrown half a season above A-ball, so while I think he’ll be a 50 FV eventually, there needs to be a little gap between him and someone like him who’s ready for the big leagues right now.

You should feel free to toss out Isbel’s 2019 regular season statistical performance. After a red hot first few weeks of the season — .348/.423/.630 — he pulled a hamstring, and shortly after he returned to game action in Extended, he broke his hamate and was shelved again until mid-July. As is typical for hitters coming back from that injury, Isbel’s numbers were poor — .216/.282/.361 overall at Wilmington — and improved the further away from surgery he got, culminating in a strong back half of August and Fall League; his Fall League look especially assuaged concerns.

Isbel has a compact swing (he’s a shorter-levered guy) with line drive plane. It’s geared to do most of its big damage to his pull side, but he can slice extra-base contact down the left field line and into the left-center field gap. Isbel is still relatively new to playing the outfield full-time, which gives him some late projection on the defensive end. I think he’ll be easily supplanted by a superior defensive center fielder but will be a plus corner defender long-term, and I’m intrigued by the idea of him playing a situational second base since he has some experience there, too. He projects as an average everyday corner outfielder.

Lee had yet another fairly strong year — .264/.363/.372 with a 12% walk rate and a whopping 53 steals (fantasy folks: I’m not betting on that continuing) — spending 2019 at Double-A Northwest Arkansas as a young 21-year-old. He has the tools of a three-true-outcomes right fielder, potentially one who plays above-average defense, but the quality of his at-bats against elite competition has been mixed, at best. It’s likely going to take a swing adjustment to get Lee hitting for relevant power in games. His swing is long, and on pitches he impacts toward the top of the zone, it cuts downward. This causes Lee to be late on good velocity and drive a lot of pitches into the ground. He’s still young enough to make these and other adjustments, but I have Lee projected as the larger half of a right field platoon rather than a true everyday player.

Cox is a black sheep pitching prospect in an org that has more per capita sinker ballers than perhaps any in the sport. This is a lefty with power relief stuff, at least, and a chance to start based on the depth of his pitch mix and the rate of strikes he’s thrown so far. I think Cox’s fastball would tick up into the mid-90s if he were ever put in the bullpen, which at this rate only seems likely to happen if his breaking balls end up running together, something Cox has worked to mitigate as a pro. He held his velocity last year despite a 20-inning workload increase, his results were not diluted even after he was moved to Hi-A for the back half of last year, and in just two years, he’s gone from a Day Three pick to someone who has the FV of a typical second rounder. Whether Cox ends up pitching toward the back of a rotation or as some kind of fire-breathing, multi-inning reliever (that’s where I’ve got him, and his future value grade reflects that), he’s a huge coup for Kansas City’s amateur department and player dev program.

There are Ed Wood movies that seem to have gone according to plan more than 2019 did for Royals hitters at Hi-A Wilmington. Chief among them was Melendez, who was on initial drafts of our top 100 last year before Kiley and my team sources squashed that with their feedback, citing Melendez’s red flag contact issues. They were right. Melendez struck out a damning 40% of the time last year. His swing is geared for low ball contact at a point in time when pitchers are attacking hitters at the top of the zone more than ever, and Melendez gets heat blown past him at the letters constantly.

Everything else that scouts loved about him as an amateur is still extant. He has plus raw power, great long-term body projection, a plus arm, and projects to have a 55 glove, which is beneath the 60 or 70 grades he was garnering in high school but is still a relevant positive. We’re now looking at a likely backup catcher based on how scary the contact issues are, but if the swing issues are fixed, Melendez could really break out because the physical tools that the swing compromises are rare for the position. There are teams/scouts for which Melendez, Pratto, and Matias are just a “no” based on the way they’ve performed with the bat. I’m holding out varying degrees of hope for them, still preferring Melendez because his defense gives him a fallback big league role even if the hit tool never develops enough for him to be a regular.

Only six teams played traditional instructional league games in Arizona last fall, and perhaps no pitcher who threw in the desert created as much buzz as Hernandez, who was filling the zone with 94-98 mph fastballs over shorter, three-ish inning outings. Hernandez has had premium velocity since he signed, but has averaged just five innings per start and 67 innings per season since 2017. Two of the three times Hernandez has missed time have been due to issues unrelated to his arm, so injuries themselves are not a concern for me so much as I’m skeptical that he can live in the mid-90s over a full season starter’s workload.

He doesn’t have a cut, athletic physique, and his delivery is reliever-y and somewhat stiff, but Hernandez does repeat, and throws a lot of strikes. His breaking ball has vertical action that enables it to outperform its raw spin rate but it is reliant on his command, which again, during the fall Hernandez had. I’ve seen backfield outings during which I thought his changeup was his best secondary but that’s not typically the case. It’s possible he can start, but I don’t consider it likely, and Hernandez certainly hasn’t proven it yet. If that’s the case, then one of the secondary pitches needs to develop still, which all the missed time has made harder.

With few exceptions (Joey Gallo is one) even the most whiff-prone big leaguers struck out less than Matias (35% career K%, a comical 44% last year before a broken hand ended his season) when they were in the minors. But Matias’ physicality and bat speed are so supreme, the gap between his talent and that of most players so obvious, that there’s a chance he can be one of the exceptions, even if it’s in a streaky, inconsistent manner.

As a teen, Seuly was already posting exit velocities on par with burly, Quad-A type hitters. Most of the issues he has are mental; his swing decisions and defensive instincts are both poor. My sources tend to be pessimistic about improvements/corrections to approach and aptitude, though perhaps that’s because they can’t see those things with their eyes, the tool they use most often and confidently to do the majority of their job. Many of the players ranked beneath Seuly here have a better chance than he does of playing some kind of big league role, but none of them have his ceiling, and based on his age, frame, and athleticism, I’m holding out some hope that he shows us what it is for a few years.

Zuber was arguably a priority senior sign as a sixth rounder, a distinction he earned when his stuff spiked following a permanent move to the bullpen. His arm is so fast as to almost look subliminal, and Zuber’s command of both breaking balls is much better than one expects from a college relief prospect. His changeup usage has been inconsistent over the last two years but at times it’s a quality pitch, and one Zuber seemed to be rebooting during the spring with some success. Zuber doesn’t have any one dominant pitch, as is typical of high-leverage relievers, but he does have several very good ones that I think will enable him to be a seventh or eighth inning type of arm.

McConnell is polarizing, much more so than is typical for a prospect who has been on the radar since his underclass high school days. In part because he was old for his graduating class, and also because there were concerns about his ability to make contact, teams didn’t meet McConnell’s high school asking price and he ended up at Florida. That’s exactly the sort of place players like him can go to reinforce confidence in their bat, but McConnell barely played as a freshman and was old enough to be draft eligible as a sophomore, and so by draft time there was relatively little data to fight the skepticism concerning his.

But he’s also got above-average raw power, plus speed, and can play shortstop (he was listed as an outfielder on the instructs roster but did not play), so he can still be a valuable player even if the bat falls short of average and his ceiling is sizable if it gets better than that. If you’ve read the list in order before arriving at McConnell’s blurb, you know this org has had trouble with players who have swing-and-miss issues upon their arrival in the system. I’m not optimistic McConnell hits enough to be a regular, and I think a multi-positional bench role is more likely.

Bowlan saw an uptick in velocity just before the 2018 draft, but his stuff backed up after he signed. Kiley and I moved him down the org list too soon, thinking the pre-draft velo bump was an anomaly. In 2019, Bowlan came out with a fastball in the 91-95 mph range, topped out at 97, and threw 65% of his pitches for strikes. Though his secondary stuff is quite average, his ability to locate his slider exactly where he wants to most of the time means it plays better than that. There’s some long-term concern about Bowlan’s hulking build, but for now he profiles as a strike-throwing backend starter.

Perhaps a swing change away from a mid-20s breakout, Gutierrez has the highest average exit velo in this system but among its lowest average launch angles. The makeup of his offensive DNA (plus contact, an aggressive approach) as currently constituted would play in a reserve role, some kind of 3B/1B platoon that also includes good defense. The Maikel Franco signing was a potential impediment to that.

Marsh was in the mix for teams as early as the middle of the 2019 second round, so he’s yet another college arm value pick by a Royals org that has taken a bushel of them throughout the last several drafts. He has a middling four-pitch mix that plays when he’s commanding his breaking stuff. He could be a No. 4/5 starter.

A source who saw Kansas City’s DSL group thought Candelario was the best of the bunch. He has a relatively projectable frame, great body control and arm strength, and looks likely to stay at shortstop and might be plus there. His bat speed is also plus. But Candelario has some swing and miss tendencies as a result of both his age and switch-hitting swing rawness, and also has a propensity to swing a lot. He’s a switch-hitting shortstop prospect with some power but a high-risk bat.

Be careful with this one. Haake was in our 2018 Draft top 50 coming out of the fall before his junior year because he was working with absolutely nasty stuff while at Kentucky. The next spring, he had trouble holding that stuff deep into starts, creating doubt that he could start at all. A flexor strain (2018) and shoulder soreness (2019) add to that risk. But Haake does indeed have nasty stuff, up to 98 with the fastball and a slider that has plus movement but is rarely well-located. There’s late-inning relief potential here, but that was true when Haake was in college and he still fell to the sixth round.

Free of the context of his high school stardom, pro scouts barely see Pratto as a prospect. A two-way high schooler with a polished approach and a modest but effectual hit/power combination, Pratto has thus far fallen short as a pro hitter, striking out more than the amateur side of the industry anticipated while generating fringe power. Even terrific defensive first basemen like Pratto have to mash, and produce from both a contact and power perspective, to profile at the position. Even though his in-zone contact rates are less concerning than his disappointing peers Melendez and Matias, Pratto still struck out at an alarming 35% clip in 2019 and his exit velos do not reinforce the notion that there’s untapped, underlying power that will profile at first base. Some of his poor performance should just be chalked up to an aggressive assignment, but Pratto’s prospectdom is officially in danger.

Even though he has advanced feel for contact, the Royals have been pretty conservative with Garcia’s developmental track because he’s still so wiry thin and lacking physicality. I’m betting on the frame producing more power long-term, enough that Garcia might be a low-end regular at shortstop.

Collins is an imposing physical presence with uncommon ball/strike recognition and feel to hit for someone his age. He also tracks pitches well, has precocious barrel control, and natural feel for lift. Collins hit for power in the AZL thanks to his feel for quality contact and raw strength, but his lower half isn’t well-incorporated into his swing yet, so I think there’s room for more in-game power via mechanical adjustment rather than through lots of physical growth. Because Collins is already pretty big and strong (though it’s important to note he’s limber and athletic, not bulky and stiff), he doesn’t have as much physical room on his frame as is typical for a hitter this age, but he does have a little bit. The positional limitations create greater risk of bust because Collins needs to really mash to profile as a corner outfielder, but early indications are that he’s talented enough to do that.

At his best, Gambrell sits in the mid-90s with a plus breaking ball and a tailing, mid-80s changeup that he uses in some clever ways, including as a means to jam righties. His stuff has been inconsistent and he missed considerable time with injury during college, which creates some relief risk. His stuff plays in a more traditional power pitcher style than most of the sinkerballers in this org.

McBroom was one of several upper-level sluggers who the Yankees acquired, seemingly to build depth behind oft-injured first baseman Greg Bird. The emergence of Luke Voit meant the club could move McBroom to a rebuilding team willing to take a flier on an older stopgap, and the Royals traded international bonus pool space for him last summer. It’s likely that, given his age, McBroom’s window for productivity as some kind of part-time first base/outfield platoon bat is relatively small, but he does have the hit/power combination needed to succeed in such a role for a couple of years.

He doesn’t throw all that hard, but Neuweiler’s control and command are both improving (he arguably has late projection in that regard because of his cold weather prep background) and his heater sinks enough to keep hitters from destroying it every time he misses. He also has two great secondary pitches in a knuckle slurve that spans a pretty wide velocity band in the upper-70s and low-to-mid-80s, and a change with late bottom that spins so little I’ve got it classified as a splitter; I’m not exactly sure what kind of grip he uses, though the improvement is so stark that he may have a fresh grip altogether now. I’m optimistic about more control/command coming late and think Neuweiler will end up pitching in the back of a rotation.

Morel had just arrived in the U.S. last year when the Nationals sent him to Kansas City as part of the Kelvin Herrera trade. At age 17, Morel performed against older competition while being asked to adjust to a new country and parent organization at the same time. His stuff was still strong in the fall, when he was 90-94 with a mid-80s, split-action changeup that was often plus. He’s not physically projectable, but he’s athletic and has some traits typical of sinker/changeup-centric rotation pieces, and his breaking ball spin rates indicate he may have an average breaker one day, too. That would make it easier for him to start.

Now 21, Guzman has filled out and developed 45 raw power while maintaining excellent defense at shortstop. He has yet to play anywhere else, but because he falls short of profiling as a regular there on the offensive end, it’s likely he starts to see time at other positions soon — especially because he’s now on the 40-man — so he can be a versatile bench infield option.

Even though he’s 24, 2019 was only Hicklen’s second full year focusing solely on baseball, as he’d been a two-sport athlete of sorts at UAB, where he would have played football had the program been active while he was there. His statistical performance, despite his age, becomes much more impressive in this context. Hicklen has hit .280/.370/.470 as a pro. All of that has been in A-ball, save for the 2019 Fall League, during which Hicklen struggled. His swing is very short and linear and he generates sizable power anyway, but his bat path doesn’t really allow it to play. Barring a very late jump in skills and instincts, he’s a bench outfielder sort.

Massey was in the second round mix coming off his terrific sophomore year at Illinois before a back injury during his junior spring dulled his explosiveness and forced him to DH a bunch. He fell to the fourth round. He struck out in just 10% of his college plate appearances, plays a good second base, and has doubles power.

I think it’s possible that the Royals have begun to place some amount of evaluation emphasis on spin rate without also considering how pitches pair together, which is perhaps how they’ve ended up with several pitchers who have a sinker/curveball mix. Murdock is exactly that. The towering 6-foot-8 righty has huge sink in the low-90s and a sharp breaker. He posted insane groundball numbers during his junior spring at Virginia. His pitches are better in a vacuum than they are together, but there’s at least big league bullpen stuff here.

Acquired ahead of the 2019 deadline for Jake Diekman, Aquino is a young relief prospect whose profile is driven by arm strength. He’ll sit 93-97 and occasionally fool a hitter with his circle change, but everything else about him lacks consistency, especially his fastball command and breaking ball. The A’s toyed with a cutter for Aquino at one point but scrapped that a month or two before he was traded; it seems like the Royals brought it back after they acquired him, as the pitch went from the slidery low-80s into the 85-88 mph range.

After spending most of the past three seasons stagnant in Omaha, Staumont finally got about 20 big league innings last year. By now you know his stuff is ridiculous. He would sit 96-99 and touch 101 or 102 in college, and he also has a dastardly curveball, but he’s a six or seven walks per nine guy, and hasn’t been able to make headway in the control/command realm as a pro.

One of the more talented prospects cut loose by the Braves during their international scandal, Del Rosario’s fastball creeps into the mid-90s, and he has a good curveball and a sturdy build that is admittedly less projectable than is typical for a 19-year-old. His strike-throwing took a step forward in 2018, before he missed all of 2019 with a nerve issue. His profile already included fairly significant relief risk made more likely by the injury and how that compresses his developmental timeline.

Heasley was a draft-eligible sophomore who simply didn’t pitch all that well in college, the sort of player draft models are only on if they incorporate pitch data (Heasley’s slider spin rates are plus-plus), or if a scout likes the player despite mediocre performance, which is the case here. Heasley moved from the Oklahoma State bullpen to the rotation as a sophomore, but still walked a batter every other inning and gave up more hits than anyone with his quality of stuff should give up in college. It’s been night and day in pro ball, and Heasley now looks like a 40-man inventory arm, and may end up fitting cleanly as a fifth starter.

There have been stretches during Griffin’s pro career when either his command or velocity have slipped a tad, and he’s been knocked around. When both are fine, he’s a good pitchability lefty who feeds hitters a steady diet of secondary pitches. Often, this type of hurler becomes Tommy Milone, but Griffin’s curveball is a little better than that (though Milone has a good cutter); more often, this type of pitcher is used in a multi-inning relief role after a power pitcher has opened the game. Barring that, I have Griffin in as a No. 5/6 starter.

Parrish’s velo was on the rise just before the draft, averaging just over 90 for the first time in his career, but in the postseason was back to 87-91 when he had to rely more on his secondary stuff. That’s probably the approach he’ll need to take going forward, as both his changeup and curveball are better offerings than the heater. He projects as a fifth/sixth starter barring an unforeseen bump in velocity. It’s also possible the command ends up as plus and Parrish just grabs hold of a rotation spot of his own that way.

The Spanish-born Hernandez is an athletic catch-and-throw prospect with advanced contact skills but limited power projection because of his shorter build. Hernandez also has some experience at third base. He could be a plus hit/plus glove catcher but teenage catching is perhaps the riskiest prospect demographic.

Tillo is a low-slot, sinkerballing relief prospect whose lack of control undermines the playability of his secondary stuff. He’ll likely be up and down during his option years.

This is the hardest-throwing pitcher on this list, a teenager whose fastball is parked in the 94-97 range already. But the cement is pretty dry on Valerio’s frame, and his is a sinker/fringe slider profile that needs changeup and command growth for him to have any hope of starting. This is a long-term relief prospect with special arm strength for his age.

Lukas didn’t pitch at a rookie or short season affiliate after the draft but he was throwing absolute cheddar in the fall, touching 99 during instructs. He’s a bigger bodied guy in the young Jonathan Broxton/Sidney Ponson realm, so that’s worth keeping an eye on. Usable control and a secondary pitch need to develop, but because the velocity is so big, there’s a chance Lukas really pops.

Signed for $750,000, Florentino is a little spark plug with elite short-area quickness and transfer. His defensive range will play on the middle infield, though his arm might fit better at second. While Florentino has viable swings from both sides of the plate, his raw power projection is limited by his size.

Rave has tweener bench outfield tools. He’s a plus runner with a swing geared for low ball contact and he actually hit for power on the Cape, but the raw pop is south of average and we’re probably looking at a fourth outfielder here, unless Rave outhits my tool grades.

This is the prospect on the list whose attached video I’d most encourage readers to watch, since Jin’s genie-like ability to make his splitter slide out from between his fingers without rotating is incredible to watch on the high speed camera. He also throws a lot of them. Jin needs to reshape his build and throw harder to be anything, but he’s young enough that it might happen.

Like most Millenials, I share account passwords with friends and family to create a Megazord collection of streaming services while only actually paying for one or two. One of these shared logins is for a DAZN account I procured in order to enjoy the platform’s boxing archive, only to discover it had several classic MLB games as well. Among these is footage of Miguel Cabrera’s big league debut, which I put on one fall night as I prepared to cut up Fall League video of Julio Rodriguez taken earlier in the day. As I split my attention between a fresh-faced Miggy and a young Julio, I noticed a rare similarity: front foot variation. Some hitters are capable of altering their stride direction based on pitch location, perhaps best exemplified by a famous GIF of Cabrera hitting home runs on pitches in six very different parts of the strike zone. In that GIF you can faintly make out how Cabrera’s footwork varies on several of those swings, and though he doesn’t do it consistently yet, Julio shows glimpses of this same seemingly innate aptitude, especially his ability to open up, clear his hips, and wreck pitches on the inner half.

He can be fooled by sweeping breaking balls that make him want to open up and pull the ball, and he’ll swing at inside sliders that finish away from him, but other than those consistent issues, Rodriguez is a very mature hitter, with a mature personality and body to match. He excelled despite Seattle’s very aggressive full-season assignment, a move I was skeptical of, and had an impressive Fall League as an 18-year-old. He’s already a 40 runner (I had him timed in the 4.4s throughout Fall League), which means he is ticketed for right field rather than center, but the bat is real. I have plus hit and power projection here and I know scouts who have a 70 on the bat, though his approach and the way his head was flying out during some of his AFL at-bats stopped me from going that heavy with my hit tool grade. I think he’s going to come up quickly and be an All-Star outfielder and the affable face of the franchise.

It was an injury-laden year for Kelenic (a wrist and ankle during the summer), who was supposed to pick up Fall League reps until those was delayed by wisdom tooth extraction and then ultimately squashed by back tightness. Despite that, and especially in spite of the wrist injury, the beefcake Wisconsinite hit .291/.364/.540 with 23 dingers and 20 steals across three levels, and reached Double-A as a young 20-year-old. Kelenic is absolutely jacked but it hasn’t detracted from his twitch, nor has his size borrowed from his range in center field, which is suitable if unspectacular for the position.

The carrying tool here is the bat, which has been the case since Kelenic was 15. Like most elite prospects he’s been one of the — if not the — best hitters his age from the time scouts began to see him, and Kelenic hit elite prep pitching all throughout high school. He is short to the ball with power, and can just turn his hands over and catch heaters up, in, or both, which bodes well for him against a pitching population that is working up there with increasing frequency. The .540 SLG% from 2019 is a bit above what’s realistic going forward, largely because there’s just no more room for mass on the body. As is the case with most hitters evaluated in this stratosphere, reports of Kelenic’s competitiveness and work ethic are strong, and have been since he was in high school. In fact, one scout on the amateur side thought he was too intense at times, sort of in the Jimmy Butler realm of teammate interaction, but I haven’t heard anything like that lately. He’s much more stick than glove, but Kelenic looks like an All-Star center fielder who’s rapidly approaching Seattle.

Last year I wrote about the possibility that Gilbert would experience a velo rebound in pro ball because I thought he had been overtaxed at Stetson. He was sitting 92-96 as a rising sophomore on the Cape, but often sat 90-94, and sometimes 88-91, throughout his starts the following spring. Last year he was again up to 96 but sat 91-94, about the halfway mark between his peak and nadir as an amateur. Considering how readily pitchers lose velo in pro ball, that’s still a win for Seattle. While all of Gilbert’s secondary pitches are average and flash above, I think his command will enable them to play above their raw grades, which, combined with what the innings count could be because of his frame and how efficiently he works, will still make him an above-average WAR generating starter.

White’s pre-draft skillset was tough for some teams to wrangle. All of the window dressing — plus-plus first base defense, plus speed, a backwards hit/throw profile — was nice but ultimately, some teams saw a first baseman without sufficient power. After they drafted him, the Mariners made subtle changes to his lower half, drawing his front knee back toward his rear hip more than he did at Kentucky, and taking a longer stride back toward the pitcher. White is more often finishing with a flexed front leg now, which has helped him go down and lift balls in the bottom part of the strike zone by adjusting his lower half instead of his hands. The power output improved and is supported by the measurable underlying data. Now that he’s signed a pre-debut deal, it’s very likely that White breaks camp with the big club, and he projects as a solid everyday first baseman.

If you tally up Kirby’s three years at Elon, his summer on the Cape, and his brief pro debut, he has a 307-to-51 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 276 innings since 2017. That’s a 4% walk rate, and in Kirby’s most recent calendar year of innings, it has been a microscopic 1.3%. While his pre-draft velocity was strong (touching 97, often 93-95 early, 91-94 late in starts), his secondary stuff was very average. His slider and curveball (the latter is better) ran together a bit, and his changeup had inconsistent finish. But often, elite command of what is a 55-grade pitch in a vacuum leads to elite results (see: Bieber, Shane), and I think that sort of secondary pitch effectiveness is possible for Kirby.

One of Seattle’s stated post-draft goals for the right-hander was to make him stronger. In 2020 spring bullpens, Kirby looked noticeably thicker and stronger, and he is indeed throwing harder, touching 99 mph several times in Peoria side sessions. Logan Gilbert threw very hard in a similar setting the year before, and though his in-season velo band was beneath his pre-season bullpens, he was still above the prior year’s range. The difference is the obvious change in Kirby’s body. I expect something similar to Gilbert’s trajectory here (and for Juan Then, who appears later on this list and was also throwing much harder in the spring before baseball shut down). Even with fairly vanilla secondary stuff, mid-90s heat and Kirby’s potential for elite command gives him a mid-rotation ceiling.

When it comes to both the broad, back-of-the-house view of his amateur profile and his promotion/big league time horizon, Marte’s career has mimicked Julio Rodriguez’s so far. He was a bigger, more physical signee than is typical for the international market, the sort most teams would not hesitate to debut in domestic rookie ball. And like Rodriguez, the Mariners allowed Marte to spend his first pro summer dominating competition that simply didn’t challenge him (the average DSL fastball velo last year was 88 mph), which led to a .309/.371/.511 line. Marte had a chance to earn an aggressive assignment with a great 2020 spring (probably not Low-A, but perhaps a summer Northwest League placement), putting him on a relative fast track for a teenage hitter, though like the rest of baseball, that possibility in now on hold.

From an individual tools and skills perspective, Marte’s peers are elite high school players. As an amateur, there was uncertainty surrounding his hands, actions, and general ability to stay on the infield, but pro looks have been more favorable, backed by enough arm strength to hide potential future range deficiencies. My previous research into shortstop size has shown that most teenage prospects gain about 30 pounds between when they’re 18 and 21 years old, which puts Marte’s baseline body projection in the Willy Adames/Trevor Story realm, or about 210 pounds. So long as his hands have indeed improved, that’s a pretty favorable comp for his body/range-based fit at short. It means there’s Goldilocks Zone power/defensive spectrum potential here, as Marte already has 50-grade raw power at age 18 and will probably have at least a full grade more at maturity. His TrackMan power metrics (they’re over on The Board) are in the 40/45 range right now because Marte’s swing elements are not always well-timed. They are, however, very athletic. The big leg kick (which Marte is balanced enough to utilize), the little bit of bat wrap to create some loop and lift, and the ability to move the barrel around the zone are all encouraging swing elements, but we really don’t know a lot about Marte’s bat-to-ball skills right now because he just hasn’t faced good pitching yet. There’s clearly huge ceiling here and I have Marte in the same FV tier Zac Veen, my highest-ranked prep amateur right now.

The roller coaster prospectdom of Justus Sheffield may finally be reaching its terminus. Several repertoire changes, two trades (and the scrutiny that comes with that), fluctuations in his walk rate, some injuries (most notably shoulder stiffness in 2018), and mixed performance at the upper levels have caused a constant need for re-evaluation. The latest of these many developments is a logical shift, given Sheffield’s sinker-friendly arm slot, to a two-seam look on the fastball. Sheffield’s 2020 spring velo was parked in the 89-93 range, but now his fastball has more tailing/sinking action, which dovetails very nicely with the shape of his slider. Sheffield will throw a shorter, curt slider in the zone for strikes (one scout source who saw Sheff this spring thought it might be a separate cutter) and a longer, nastier, bat-missing version that finishes out of the strike zone. This pitch is plus, and was used heavily in Sheffield’s electric spring outings, especially as a back foot out-pitch to righties.

Sheffield’s changeup is also good, but his arm side command of all his pitches is not, so whether he’ll be able to consistently set up the change with well-located fastballs is in doubt. So, too, is Sheffield’s ability to eat innings like a traditional starter because of his hot and cold strike throwing. Some teams just have him projected in the bullpen because of how erratic the strikes have been historically. He’s in the same FV tier as Red Sox righty Bryan Mata, who also has sinker-oriented stuff and significant relief risk.

“He’s still a 24-year-old who struck out 29% of the time at Double-A.” This was the general industry response to early drafts I circulated of my Top 100, which had Lewis toward the back of the 50 FV tier where players like Jose Siri and Monte Harrison have been when they’ve made the list. Lewis and his knee (he tore his ACL in 2016) finally looked healthy last year (his swing had more movement, a bigger leg kick, and he seemed to be twisting and bending it with more comfort), and his underlying power data, which I’ll get to shortly, is spectacular. But in some ways what Lewis’ health helped reinforce was skepticism regarding his hit tool. There are folks in baseball who think that on a binary level, Lewis will not hit enough to have a meaningful career. I think he’ll be a high-variance big leaguer, grinding through some frustrating, 1-WAR seasons while he clubs 30-plus bombs in others, similar to Jorge Soler, Domingo Santana, and countless other tantalizing toolsheds who strike out a lot.

As for that underlying power data I promised you, Lewis’ is very encouraging. If you’ve been reading this year’s lists, you know the Southern League offensive environment was very unkind to hitters last season. A source not with Seattle told me that based on his TrackMan/Statcast data, Lewis’ Expected SLG%, was about .100 higher than his actual output, with an xSLG up around .500. He averaged 92 mph off the bat last year and hit 53% of balls in play at 95 mph or above (a 70 on the scale); another source whose team tracked Hard Outs among 2019 minor leaguers (balls in play at 95 mph or up that resulted in outs) told me Lewis made more than 40 of them last year, which was in the top 10 in all the minors. On balance, I think Lewis is a 45, a 1.5 WAR player on average during his years of team control. But he has plus-plus, impact power and could get hot and make some All-Star teams during that span, while other years will be quite lean.

Teams that had been tracking Raleigh’s framing ability since college have been optimistic about him profiling at catcher for longer than most individual scouts, who see a bigger-bodied guy with mobility issues. Last year, as many orgs have done, Mariners catchers began working on one knee, a move that tends to be favorable for framing but not for throwing, a skill of dwindling importance (for now). Perhaps not coincidentally (or perhaps because we were wrong about Raleigh’s arm grade last year, when we 55’ed it), reports on Raleigh’s arm strength are worse than they were a year ago, though it appears he’s a viable, long-term catcher, if an unspectacular one. If that’s true, then Raleigh has a great chance to be an average everyday backstop thanks to his power and a sentient approach that enables him to hit for it in games and reach base at an above-average clip.

Scouts and execs see Dunn settling into one of two outcomes: either he ends up living in the mid-90s as a power reliever, or he sits, as he did in 2019, in the low-90s as an innings-eating No. 4/5 starter. Brendan Gawlowski’s spring look at Dunn, during which the right-hander sat 92-94 over three innings, is perhaps indicative of the former since Dunn rarely worked with his changeup at a time when most starters are working heavily with their tertiary pitch in preparation for the season. Still, I remain somewhat bullish on Dunn’s changeup development. He’s had stretches in the past where it’s been a plus pitch and it’s arguably the best long-term fit with his fastball’s tailing/sinking shape. What I’m less optimistic about is Dunn’s starter stamina. He looked gassed late last year and while into the mid-90s early, was not throwing as hard in subsequent innings this spring. Ideally his fastball lives in at least the 93-96 mph range out of the bullpen and Dunn can be a dynamic, three-pitch reliever. I have his future fastball grade projected as if that’s the outcome.

Delaplane has power, vertical action stuff that I think is going to play in a high-leverage relief role. He creates a nearly perfect vertical arm slot by striding wide open, starting on the third base side of the rubber but landing in the middle of the mound. It helps give his fastball plus-plus carry and ride. Delaplane also has a power, Brad Lidge-style slider with late, downward movement. He has less raw arm strength than the Nick Andersons of the world, but the stuff works in the same way, and I think Delaplane will be a reliever of rare quality.

It’s not as if Williamson didn’t show plus stuff at TCU; he would be parked at 92-93 in the first inning or two, and flash two plus breaking balls. He did, however, struggle to hold it deep into starts. By the fourth, he was often living in the 88-91 range. After the draft, in one- and two-inning outings, he sat 92-95 with a plus curveball (and fewer, if any, sliders). I’m skeptical that Williamson can hold 92-95 as a starter for a whole season because of how his stuff has waned in the past. He also suffered a severe hip injury while in junior college (he tore both labrums dunking a basketball and needed surgery) that might impact his ability to do it. I buy that the velo will be there in short stints and that both breaking balls, assuming the slider returns, will be plus. As such, I have Williamson projected as a three-pitch power reliever.

Then (pronounced “Ten”) was originally signed by Seattle, then was sent to New York when the Mariners were swapping low-level prospects for 40-man depth at the end of their last competitive window, before he returned in the Edwin Encarnación deal.

He had a velocity spike over the offseason and, after sitting 91-95 and topping at 96 last year, was up to 99 mph in the bullpen this spring before baseball ceased operations due to the pandemic. Similar to the way Vanderbilt and Kyle Wright found an extra gear for his fastball before the draft, a lower, more naturally comfortable arm slot for Then is part of what seems to have brought this about. Last year, his well-located sliders were plus and the rest of his repertoire below, but he’s lanky and loose, and quite smooth, so that stuff has been at least somewhat projectable. How the lower slot impacts the secondaries and command we won’t know until after Then has taken the new delivery for a spin, but even if things go awry, the velo bump everyone’s been hoping for has seemingly arrived, so a late-inning reliever outcome is now in play.

At the very least, Mills profiles as a good, sidearm “look” reliever who can enter the middle of the game and present hitters with a visual conundrum because of his sidearm slot. His combo of repertoire depth and command are both rare for a reliever, and I think he has a chance to have some peak years like Luke Gregerson, Steve Cishek, Brad Ziegler, or other low slot relievers who closed in recent seasons have had. The statistical case for it — 30% strikeout rate, 54% groundball rate — is strong and Mills has better surface-level stuff than most sidearm relievers do.

Fraley is officially in tweenersville. He plays a fine center field but he’s not such a black hole that it makes up for his lack of power on offense and enables him to profile. Perhaps plus corner defense with a slightly better hit tool than I’ve projected means Fraley can be a platoon 45 FV, but I think enough puzzle pieces with power are floating around that he ends up a Ben Gamel style, luxury bench outfielder.

Campbell was granted a medical redshirt in 2017 because of surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow. His stuff was not totally back in 2018 and the Angels tried to buy low on the then redshirt sophomore in the 28th round. He returned to school, his stuff bounced back, and Campbell went in the 2019 second round. He was ridden pretty hard at Arkansas, and the Mariners chose not to run him out after the draft. We don’t yet know what changes might be made to his repertoire, which was full of average stuff in college. He projects as a No. 4/5 starter.

Bishop remains strangely snakebitten by injury, the latest and most bizarre of which was a 2019 lacerated spleen. He’s still a glove-first, bench outfield prospect.

Clase packs quite a punch for someone his size, and his swing is very short but also geared for some lift. He has a relatively projectionless build, but part of that is because he’s added a bunch of muscle since signing and is now built like a little tank. His speed gives him a shot to be a special center field defender, while the contact feel and seemingly mature idea of the strike zone might weaponize the speed on the bases. There’s a right tail, everyday center field outcome in here.

This is another of several older relief prospects in the system, one whose report you’re probably familiar with by now. Bautista was part of Seattle’s return in the Díaz/Canó trade; the Mets acquired him from Boston for Addison Reed at the 2017 trade deadline. He’s an arm strength-dependent reliever (96-99 mph) who’ll likely lose list eligibility as soon as we have baseball again. He’s erratic, but as long as he has crude control he’ll bully hitters with his fastball and 84-87 mph slider in a middle relief role.

Other than the odd, chicken wing arm action Gerber uses to unfurl his stuff, he has a pretty standard mid-90s heat/power slider relief profile. The fastball gets on hitters more quickly than they expect, and it comes in at a flat angle that hitters also seem to struggle with. He might be up in September.

A converted outfielder, Alvarado was up to 100 during extended and sat in the mid-90s with bat-missing movement throughout the rest of the summer. He’ll flash an occasionally nasty slider but it’s not consistent right now, nor is his strike-throwing, but of course he hasn’t been pitching for all that long. He’s a 2020 40-man add and will have to develop pretty quickly to merit a 40-man spot this winter, but Seattle has had success developing pitching lately and this guy has big ceiling if things click. Based on his build and athleticism, they might.

Bins has plus bat speed and a great build for a catcher. His swing is grooved and he needs defensive polish, but he at least has power/arm carrying tools and a good chance to be a whiff-prone backup.

Like Gerber, Newsome has a short, weird arm action that seems to bug hitters and create abnormally strong results on a fastball that is, in most respects, barely average. He does have a plus changeup and throws an obnoxious rate of strikes. To this point, Newsome’s smoke and mirrors have worked as a starter up through Hi-A. The velo bump he worked for two offseasons ago has made a difference, and he projects as a swingman type now.

The Mariners pushed De Los Santos to full-season ball last year because his secondary stuff desparately needed reps and they trusted him to scrap through starts early on even though it wasn’t ready. He succeeded and now looks like a fastball/cutter/slider relief prospect.

Sweet was a 2018 undrafted free agent senior sign who had a 2019 breakout. He began the year in the Low-A bullpen (50 K, 9 BB in 35 innings), then in June was moved to the rotation and thrived for 12 starts. He made a few late-August starts at Hi-A, and was good there, too. Sweet has fastball command, fastball ride, and a plus changeup. He’s a little light on velocity, only sitting 90-93, but he’s garnered swings and misses at that velocity at the top of the strike zone so far. His changeup has bat-eluding sink and fade, and is used against righty hitters. The breaking ball is just okay, but he can land it for strikes to start counts.

It’s a 40-man look, to be sure. Perhaps the velo would tick up in the bullpen in an interesting way (all our Sweet info comes from folks who’ve seen him start), but for now he projects in the fifth or sixth starter area.

Ramirez’s career got off to a late start (he didn’t begin playing pro ball until he was 21) and he was also a little slow to develop, languishing in A-ball for several years. His stuff really started to pop in 2018, and last season he showed bat-missing, multi-inning stuff — 92-97, up to 99, two plus breaking balls. He walked 74 hitters in just over 100 innings last year, which needs to be better if he’s going to stick.

Rejoice! Those who saw Benitez as an amateur and hoped he’d enjoy a pro velo bump have been proven correct, as the 20-year-old lefty was sitting 89-92 and up to 94 last year. He has big curveball spin rates but the pitch is pretty easy to identify out of his hand, and he barely throws it. It’ll be interesting to see if the dev group tries to make the curveball more playable or if they explore other out-getting avenues now that viable velo appears to be on the way.

The fastball/frame projection here is just okay, but Casetta-Stubbs has two excellent breaking balls and an advanced understanding of how to deploy them together to thwart hitters, similar to how Drew Pomeranz attacks guys. He’s a black sheep relief prospect.

Fletcher’s big hip turn helps him hide the ball pretty well, his slider has sufficient sweep despite low spin rates, and his changeup and two-seamer pair well together. He’d be a 40 FV relief prospect if his command were a shade better.

Kerr can dunk a basketball, he has superlative weight room exploits, and he has rare lefty velo. His splitter flashes plus and the Mariners have worked with his slider enough to create viable sweep on the pitch. The strike-throwing and secondary consistency are present issues, but Kerr has come so far, so fast (he was sitting in the low-90s early last spring) that it’s fair to project on that stuff, even though he’s in his mid-20s.

Perez has more of a frame than his measurables suggest, he has advanced feel for the strike zone and for contact, and he might grow into enough power to profile as a well-rounded everyday third baseman. But the frame isn’t so overtly projectable as to make it a likelihood.

Cardozo signed for just shy of $600,000 last July. He doesn’t have the typical July 2 prospect’s physical projection, but his delivery is loose and repeatable. He’s been up to 92 with feel for his breaking ball and change.

He’s 24 but I still think Liberato’s physical tools and relatively solid track record of performance merit inclusion in this FV tier. He runs well, has a great frame, and made substantive improvements to his contact rates with a 2018 swing change. I think there’s still a chance he contributes in some way.

Shenton had a loud Cape, then regressed athletically the following spring and looked more like a future first baseman. He has pop, but needs to hit a ton to profile at either corner spot.

We’re still collectively waiting for Carlson to pitch coming off of Tommy John. At his prep peak, he was into the mid-90s with a good changeup and more strikes than is typical for such a hard-throwing, cold-weather prospect.

Stoudt is a relief prospect with a plus changeup who went lower in the 2019 draft than his talent suggested because the industry knew he needed TJ after signing.

Adcock is a catcher conversion arm who emerged a year after he was first draft-eligible. He’s an upper-90s power relief prospect who didn’t throw after the draft.

An undrafted free agent who was signed out of Indy ball with the notion that he’d eventually be an in-office contributor, Haberer cruised through A-Ball and now is in the upper levels at age 24 and throwing very hard. He was up to 99 last year and has a shot to be a bullpen contributor.

This is the first 80 FV prospect of the Future Value era at FanGraphs, the best prospect on the planet, and the best I’ve evaluated during my tenure here. What does it take to draw such significant expectations? Let’s first examine the statistical case. Franco has played 175 career games, all at levels well above what is typical for a player his age (he doesn’t turn 19 until March). During those games, he’s hit .336/.405/.523 with 71 extra-base hits, 20 steals, and more walks than strikeouts. In fact, across two levels in 2019, Low- and Hi-A, Franco not only walked more than he struck out, but walked about twice as much. He has one of the lowest swinging strike rates in the entire minor leagues, and it’s possible the power hasn’t fully actualized yet because Franco still hits the ball on the ground a lot (48% last year). How about the TrackMan data? Franco’s exit velos and hard hit rate are both above big league average, which, again, is ridiculous for a teenager who’s playing against competition four and a half years older than he is in the Florida State League.

Of course, the visual baseball evaluation is also incredible. Franco had one of the best BP sessions at the Futures Game (his was better than Jo Adell, Nolan Jones, and everyone not named Royce Lewis) and the best infield. His hands are a powder keg, accelerating to the point where he can do huge damage, and he doesn’t need mechanical length to get there. This is true from both sides of the plate; Franco can’t be thwarted by turning him around and forcing him to hit from a weaker side. He might not ever produce big home run totals without a swing change, but it’d be ridiculous to alter this guy’s swing considering how elite his performance has been. A scouting director once told me, “Elite players are elite all the time,” and that has been true of Franco since he was a young teen. He’s been a force of nature offensively, he plays a premium defensive position very well, and my degree of confidence in his ability to do both in perpetuity is high because that’s all Franco has ever done.

McKay was 1.1 innings shy of graduating off of prospect lists entirely this year, which means there is as much hard data on him as it’s possible to have when deciding how to evaluate him before he exits my scope. He was unusually homer-prone during his big league stretch, something that has never been an issue before even with middling velocity, because McKay’s command is so good. I think it’s a small sample blip that will regress over more innings, though I did have folks from analytically-inclined teams suggest that I slide McKay down on my overall rankings when I circulated the list for feedback.

His fastball only sits 90-94 and touches 96, which is pretty average, but McKay keeps it away from the middle of the zone where it can really be hammered and often ties hitters up with it because he locates so well; his swinging strike rate on the heater was close to 17% in the minors, so I think it’ll play. His cutter command is arguably even better, and he peppers the glove side of the plate with it at will. Changeup usage was scarce in his big league sample but I think it will be one of the focal points of his repertoire, perhaps usurping the curveball, which has a stronger visual evaluation than it does if you look at the spin data. It’s a repertoire/command profile similar to a lot of good lefties (Hyun-Jin Ryu, Mike Minor, Cole Hamels), though most of them are more reliant on the cambio than McKay has been to this point. He may not have the rate stats of the other arms in the 60 FV tier, but I expect he’ll make up for all of that with volume because of how efficiently he works.

This is my favorite player in the minors, a top-of-the-scale athlete who is sneaky strong despite his height and one of the most electric, in-the-box rotators in all of the minor leagues. He split 2019 between Hi- and Double-A and his walk rate took a bit of a hit at those levels, but otherwise, his on-paper performance was strong, well above league averages (.277/.346/.389 with 48 bags in 61 attempts, and 28 extra-base hits in 100 games). His exit velo data is not great, but it was instructive to watch Brujan in the Fall League next to several other players with similar statistical and defensive profiles who aren’t nearly as athletic or as physically projectable as he is. There were lots of other narrowly built infielders of similar age who simply don’t have Brujan’s musculature (you can see his lats through his jersey) or explosiveness. I think there’s room for mass even though Brujan is short, and that he’ll continue to harness his hellacious cut, which, based on his contact rates, he already has abnormal control over. I watched Brujan swing so hard that he’d corkscrew himself to the ground, only to pop back up like a Russian folk dancer. There are scouts who think he can play shortstop, but I think the arm is a little light for that and that instead, he’ll be a plus-plus defender at second base or perhaps play a multi-positional, up-the-middle role. You have to bet on him growing into more pop to get there, but I think Brujan’s going to be a star.

Things may finally be starting to gel for Lowe, who has had tantalizing tools since high school. He was a power/speed prep bat without a clear position, but most of the amateur half of the industry assumed he’d be able to play center field if not shortstop or third base, where he played in high school. He quickly moved to the outfield and has played almost exclusively in center since 2017. He isn’t great there, but most of Lowe’s other abilities have been slow to develop, so it’s possible the feel for the position will come eventually. For instance, Lowe has power but has been strikeout prone since his prep days. But once he started playing pro games and generating data, it became clear that, despite the whiffs, he had a great idea of the strike zone. The raw power didn’t really show up in games until Lowe’s batted ball profile began to shift in 2018. His groundball rates were in the mid-40% range until that year but slowly began shifting downward, then Lowe had a breakout statistical 2019 as a 21-year-old at Double-A.

He’s always going to strike out, but he’s also probably going to keep walking a lot, especially now that the power is a real threat. It’s pretty important that he stay in center field to take some pressure off of the hit tool. If he can do that, he’ll be an everyday player.

Honeywell has had a myriad of injury issues over the last couple of years. He had a TJ, then a nerve issue during rehab, then fractured his elbow in the bullpen just after last year’s draft. The sequence of events that has befallen Honeywell is relatively unprecedented, and while he was a 55 or 60 FV arm at peak, his future is now in doubt. And that’s a bummer, because he’s a lot of fun to watch pitch.

A creative sequencer, Honeywell’s deep, unique repertoire is unlike any other pitcher in the minors. Though his fastball touches 98, his stuff is so diverse that he never has to pitch off of it. He can lob his curveball in for strikes, induce weak contact early in counts by throwing a cutter when hitters are sitting fastball, and he’ll double and triple up on the changeup. What you see listed in Honeywell’s tool grades as a splitter is actually a screwball. It wobbles home in the 79-82 mph range, while his true changeup is usually a little harder than that. The screwgie is more than a gimmick and can miss bats, though it’s best in moderation because it’s a little easier to identify out of his hand, and hitters are able to recognize it after seeing it multiple times in the same at-bat.

The Rays plan to deploy Edwards as a multi-positional catalyst, a speedy, Chone Figgins-style player. His exit velos are arguably concerningly low. But his contact rates and track record of hitting (X was a staple on the travel ball circuit for several years and might have been the most game-ready high schooler in his draft year) combined with his ability to play lots of different positions, including the ones in the middle of the diamond, make him a relatively high-probability big league contributor. Even sources from very analytically-inclined teams thought he deserved strong placement on this list, a sign that exit velo stuff is less meaningful right now than some fear.

Kiley and I were sourcing the Cardinals list as the Libby/Arozarena/Martínez deal went down, and everyone we spoke with has Arozarena on either side of the 45/50 FV line. He does have some tweener traits and it’s possible his role in Tampa Bay, where everyone is in some sort of timeshare but is also put in positions where they can succeed, will impact whether or not 50’ing him is the correct call.

His quality of contact is very good, he’s a plus corner outfielder who can pass in center field, and he’s a great baserunner, as well as an intense, high-effort player who pro scouts love watching — Arozarena once turned a routine pop-up into a triple because he sprinted full-tilt out of the box while the infielders miscommunicated.

It’s highly likely that Baz moves to the bullpen, where his unusually deep pitch mix could enable him to pitch multiple innings, though it’s also possible the pitch mix gets whittled down and he works in single-inning relief. He pitched as a starter during the regular season but was bumping 100 out of the bullpen in the Fall League. The future fastball grade reflects the anticipated move.

All of Walls’ rather vanilla physical skills are made better by his elite baseball feel and instincts, especially on defense. While the amateur side lacked conviction in his defensive fit at shortstop, the pro side thinks Walls’ first step, internal clock, and situational awareness, combined with suitable foot speed, actions, and arm strength, not only make him viable at short, but actually quite good.

Offensively, Walls is a switch-hitter with great feel for the strike zone and for squaring balls all over it. He’s kinda stiff and really doesn’t have much power, instead punching a lot of liner singles over the heads of infielders. It’s not a sexy skillset but it is a great general profile — a switch-hitting shortstop with on base skills — with enough physical tools to compete with big leaguers. He’s a 2020 Pick to Click who will likely be on next year’s top 100 as a major league-ready, everyday player.

Throughout his late high school and early college (which was paused by a Tommy John) careers, McClanahan’s stuff climbed from the mid-80s to the mid-90s. In the first start of his draft year, he hit 100 mph and flashed above average secondary stuff, which put him among the draft’s top prospects right out of the gate. But things started to unravel from there. A finger injury, bad weather, fluctuating stuff, frustrating control, and questions about his maturity all contributed to a draft-day tumble to pick No. 31 and the hometown Rays.

A year later, those concerns seem trite. A more consistent, balanced delivery enabled McClanahan to throw more strikes and he absolutely carved A-ball. He got especially hot over a nine-game stretch at Hi-A, where he walked just eight over 49 innings. I still have McClanahan evaluated as a reliever. These are improvements compared to what McClanahan was doing later in 2018, yes, but I still think the command and third pitch fall short of what’s acceptable for a starter. But I also think the fastball/breaking ball combo fits like a glove in a high-leverage relief role.

The six year window I consider when evaluating prospects warps how I handle older, rookie-eligible players like Tsutsugo. He’ll undoubtedly hit some sort of decline phase during that window, but he’s also someone our readers would like to know about. I have him here purely with the role in mind, which I think is the bigger half of the platoon LF/DH, a 1.5 to 2 WAR sort of player during the life of his deal. Tsutsugo was a .282/.382/.528 career hitter in Japan, averaged 34 homers over his last four years there, and had a 13% career walk rate in NPB. He has all-fields power created by a swing I’ve compared to Eddie Rosario’s. Multiple sources have confirmed to me that Tsutsugo averaged an exit velocity of 92 mph (108 mph max) last year in Japan, which would rank among the top 30 big leaguers, but of course the level and type of pitching he’ll see now is going to be different. Kaz Matsui and Kosuke Fukudome each had comparable peak power numbers before they came over but Matsui didn’t have Tsutsugo’s ball/strike recognition, and Fukudome was a little bit older and didn’t have this kind of physicality.

In addition to regular DH duty, Tsutsugo seems like an obvious platoon partner for Hunter Renfroe in one of the two corner outfield spots. The Rays gave him some time at third base this spring, but he didn’t look great there and he hasn’t played the infield regularly since 2014; the notes I have from pro/international scouts and executives from before he signed indicate that he’s not athletically capable of handling the hot corner. Yandy Díaz isn’t good there either (he used to be, but he’s just too big and stiff now), but still played third situationally, so perhaps Tsutsugo can be hidden there, even if it’s just for a few innings at a time.

Teams loved Jones’ tools coming out of high school, but he was very raw as a hitter, especially for someone as old as he was relative to his high school senior peers. After a strikeout-heavy freshman year in Wilmington, Jones cut his whiff total nearly in half as a draft-eligible sophomore. He also improved enough defensively to keep the shortstop projection alive. It was enough for him to be in teams’ mix in the comp round zip code, and he was drafted 31st overall by the Rays.

A year and a half later, Jones remains the same sort of player. He struggled during Extended, but had a strong summer in the Penn League, a pretty conservative assignment. Jones has everyday outs. Even if he doesn’t stay at short, he’s going to play up the middle, and so long as he’s getting to the power he has a shot to play everyday. I think there’s still-to-come hit tool growth, enough that the in-game power manifests.

Ryan dominated Midwest League hitters in April, then was quickly moved to Hi-A Port Charlotte, where he continued to mow through Florida State League hitters, striking out 35% of them during his first dozen appearances. He did most of his damage with the fastball, which is puzzling because Ryan’s heater doesn’t seem remarkable in any way, even in light of the pitch data I’ve sourced. He’ll touch 96, but sits mostly 90-94 with average underlying components like spin, z-break, and extension. Despite that, Ryan is getting a lot of swinging strikes in the zone with his fastball. Like, a lot, a lot. His arm stroke is curt, and the ball just kind of jumps on hitters, so perhaps that’s contributing to its effectiveness, but it’s not such a unique look as to satisfactorily explain this level of dominance.

The supporting cast — a low-70s rainbow curveball, the occasional cutter or changeup — is only okay, so vanilla that Ryan just pumps his fastball in, pitch after pitch. He used it 73% of the time last year. There’s no precedent for that level of usage among big league starters. Based on the way the fastball plays (the whiff rates indicate it’s an elite pitch, but based on how big league hitters dealt with it this spring, I have a 60 on it) and Ryan’s command, I have him in as a strike-throwing No. 4/5 starter.

Pie, who ranked 17th on our 2018 July 2 Board, now looks like top 100 prospect Oneil Cruz did at the same age; endless limbs on an NBA wing player’s frame, uncommon athleticism and body control for his size, uncapped power projection, and much more intrigue than there is certainty about any aspect of the profile. It’s not even clear whether Pie is going to stay on the infield. He runs well enough that center field is a possibility if his actions don’t improve, and he has the arm to play short or third if they do.

Even if Pie tumbles down the defensive spectrum, it likely means he’s grown into substantial raw power, enough to profile at any position. His current tool grade projections indicate what I think things will look like if his frame develops such that it allows him to stay at shortstop, but I think it’s going to take a long time before Pie’s skillset truly comes into focus.

If you squint and look at Hernandez’s skillset from a certain angle, it looks much like Gary Sánchez‘s did at the same stage. He has big power and breathtaking arm strength, but there are questions about the approach (which might impede the power) and his defensive ability, specifically the receiving. After three straight years of big time slugging performance, Hernandez’s output dipped in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. Some of this was due to the hitting environment; some of it was due to more advanced pitchers understanding how to attack him to limit damage. Hernandez’s swing cuts down through the typical hitting zone and his power is out in front when his swing starts to lift, which makes his point of impact of paramount importance to his power production. There are mixed opinions as to whether this is correctable. While what matters for catchers defensively may soon change, the combo of approach and swing issues have caused me to become more tepid on Hernandez’s offensive future. He has everyday tools but needs a good bit of developmental love to get there.

In a draft demographic filled with wide-shouldered frames and traditional-looking deliveries, Goss stood apart from his 2019 prep pitching peers in many ways. He has a narrow, long-torso’ed frame, a flatter lower half, and a little bit of cross-bodied action to a delivery that resembles Luis Patiño’s from a timing and sequencing standpoint. Goss’ fastball has tough-to-square arm side tail created by his three-quarters arm slot, and its movement pairs well with his fairly advanced changeup, which seemed to evolve into a firm, mid-80s split once he was in pro ball.

He has worked with two breaking balls in the past, both of which reside in the low-80s and have enough depth and movement to be considered future average pitches in a vacuum, but they lack raw spin and were consolidated after he signed. They may play better against righties if Goss’ delivery proves tough for them to parse. There’s some body/delivery relief risk perception throughout the industry — some of which is delivery xenophobia, some of which is injury-related, though I think the mix and command are fine — but otherwise Goss has fourth starter talent.

Frank was first seen by most scouts as a utility player on college Team USA the summer before he was draft eligible. The setting in which you scout a player can do wonders, and the Team USA look didn’t give Frank much of a chance to show what he could do. He didn’t stand out much, playing all over the field and making contact, but lacking impact tools. He shined much brighter in the spring for Florida Atlantic, with 13 homers and an OPS just shy of 1.000 while playing a passable shortstop.

Scouts who saw Frank in pro ball after the Rays popped him in the second round see a slightly lesser version of Taylor Walls, another under-tooled Rays middle infielder with lots of feel. Frank is seen as more of a second baseman going forward and his 45 raw power, 50 speed, and 50 defense still aren’t loud, but his ability to hit, take a good at-bat, and have advanced feel for the game give him the look of a potential low-end regular who could move quickly through the minors. He missed almost all of 2019 with a left shoulder strain.

It’s incredible how quickly Johnson became a high-end draft prospect. Originally a junior college infielder, Johnson began dabbling with pitching during his sophomore season at Louisburg College, when he threw just six innings. Just a few months later, during Campbell’s fall practices, his fastball touched the mid-90s and he flashed a plus breaking ball, instantly making him a high-priority look for the following spring. His stock and performance peaked in late-March, then dipped closer to the draft when he failed to get through five or more innings in five of his last eight starts. He was sitting 91-95 in 30-pitch outings after he signed, and his slider spin rate spiked once the Rays got hold of him. The pre-draft dip leaves room for questions about his season-long durability, but Johnson was still so new to pitching that expecting him to hold his stuff for five or more innings all spring would have been silly. Assuming that comes (his is a longer arm action, but Johnson is a plus athlete and I think he can repeat it), he has No. 4 starter ceiling. He’ll likely rely on two distinct breaking balls as his secondary weapons (a mid-80s slider, a mid-70s curve) since the longer arm action isn’t typically friendly for change development.

Fairbanks has elite, late-inning stuff that arrived after he returned from the second of two Tommy Johns and shifted to the bullpen in 2019, a move that helped enable a fastball bump from the 92-94 range to 95-98, touching 100. That fastball has big carry/rise thanks to its spin rate (nearly 2500 rpm) and spin axis; it backspins due to Fairbanks’ slot, and his slider has vertical, curveball-shaped break but rests in the upper-80s and low-90s. This is an impact relief piece who is ready right now, though age and Fairbanks’ injury history round the FV down a bit.

Schnell was a cold-weather high school hitter who went bonkers during his senior year, especially during the varsity postseason, which was late in the spring and closer to the draft when high-level scouts were coming in for looks. Based on his physical tools — chiefly, the power and straight-line speed — and body projection, Schnell has big upside. He’s shown opposite field thump, which impresses some scouts though others argue his inside-out contact spray indicates a swing flaw. To possess premium bat speed and face pitching in the 80s but still inside-out home runs suggests that Schnell has been late on subpar stuff, and his deep hand load, which helps create the power, also creates a ton of length back to the ball. It’s still too early to say definitively that this is a problem, in part because Schnell hasn’t played many pro games yet due to injuries, which he has a history of (a broken bone in his right wrist in 2018, minor surgery on his right knee in April of 2019 to correct an ailment he described as stemming from wear and tear). He’s a high-variance corner outfield power projection prospect.

After undergoing some swing alterations — there have been a few changes to how open Padlo’s stance is and how big his leg kick is — and gutting through a terrible April and May, Padlo became a pull and lift machine for the final few months of the season. It’s a one-note approach that might be pitched around effectively at the big league level, but to this point Padlo has shown to be selective enough to wait for pitches he can yank that way. His slugging performance is up over what’s realistic at the big league level but there is relevant big league power output now. I think Padlo is too heavy-footed to play third base every day but industry opinions are mixed. I think he’s ticketed for a four corner platoon role of some sort, similar to the one Rays fans have seen Yandy Díaz occupy.

Two years in the DSL means Ramirez’s 40-man timeline is compressed, and that’s especially true now that the spread of COVID-19 has shortened the 2020 season, Ramirez’s last before being Rule 5 eligible. Based on his physicality (Ramirez is a curvaceous, José Ramírez type scaled up to 5-foot-11) and relatively advanced feel to hit, Abiezel was a candidate to be pushed quickly this year to stress test the bat. Ramirez has a handsy, powerful swing that produces whizzing line drives from the left side of the plate. His arm strength fits on the left side of the infield and gives him a shot to stay at short. Barring a swing change or feel for lift that develops naturally as he matures, this is likely to be more of a doubles-oriented power profile, but the bat-to-ball skills may carry him to an everyday infield role even if there’s no change there.

It’s prudent to be skeptical of Proctor’s 2019 Low-A statline because of his age, and he doesn’t have the overt physical tools easy to scout in a short look, but he has a carrying tool in his lefty stick and has a shot to stick at shortstop. He’s done nothing but hit dating back to his freshman year at Rice — Proctor is a .300/.392/.420 hitter, combined college and pro — and I’m confident he’s a high-contact and OBP middle infielder, which, even without impact power, is still a big league role player.

O’Brien’s velocity has climbed each of the last two years and now rests comfortably in the mid-90s, with an extra tick of perceived velo due to extension. He’s a classic small-school late bloomer with a good frame and athletic delivery. O’Brien also has an abnormally firm, sinking, upper-80s changeup, and a power, low-80s curveball, both of which look like impact pitches at times. It’s starter stuff, and perhaps more traditional starter’s control will develop late, much like O’Brien’s stuff has.

I’m staying on Gomez despite a) his precipitous 2019 downtick in production and b) his terrifying, swing-happy, corner-only profile. He has nautical mile power and sneaky good plate coverage that’s masked by how often he chases. Despite his maxed frame (he began his pro career as a speedy center field prospect but now has a chonky corner build), Gomez is an athletic swinger who can punish pitches out away from him to center and right-center field, and can also turn on stuff on the inner half and send it skyward. He has heart-of-the-order talent that’s currently at the mercy of an immature approach, so callow that he was passed over in last year’s Rule 5. He’s a high-variance player at the mercy of his own decision-making.

The Yankees’ all-in pursuit of Jasson Dominguez enabled the Rays to swoop in and offer Diaz more money than New York could trade for in pool space; Tampa inked him for $1.5 million. Diaz has more present skill than he does physical projection, atypical for the July 2 market. There are teams that considered him a tweener fourth outfield type, but I think he’s just short, not small, and has a bunch of above-average tools and good baseball instincts. His path to an everyday role involves him staying in center field and making a lot of contact. If he falls short at either, then we’re talking about a platoon/fourth outfielder type.

Somehow, despite his relative lack of power, the most consistent aspect of Fox’s performance has been on the offensive end of things. As reports of the quality of his defense have waxed and waned over the last three years, he’s somehow posted an above-average offensive line for each of the last three affiliates at which he’s spent most of the season. That includes a 104 wRC+ in a depressed 2019 Southern League, where the average hitter’s line was .243/.318/.366. Despite major league-average exit velocities, Fox’s contact quality isn’t great, and he has an OBP-driven offensive profile thanks to his keen eye for the zone.

He’d need to be a plus shortstop defender to profile as a low-end regular, and while he has looked like it at times, it hasn’t been consistent, and the Rays began moving him all over the infield late last year. As a switch-hitter who’s better from the right side (his numbers have been much better as a righty bat the last couple years), I think Fox will play some sort of multi-positional, shorter half of a platoon role while also pinch running. If you think he’s a low-end regular at short, then he’s a 45 FV, but I think it’ll be hard for him to be more than a 1-WAR role player without any impact in the bat.

In many ways, the first half of Strotman’s 2018 season was just like that of Phillies righty Spencer Howard. Like Howard, Strotman mostly pitched out of the bullpen at a second tier California college and only began starting full-time in 2018. He was probably slightly underscouted as an amateur, and definitely underdeveloped. For a month and a half of 2018, he showed mid-rotation stuff, then blew out his elbow and needed Tommy John. His rehab was slow and Strotman was 90-93 when he returned, then 91-95 with average secondary stuff late in the Fall League. He looked like a No. 4 starter before the injury (he was 92-97 at that point) and now looks like a backend arm, but based on how his stuff was trending in the Fall, he might be very relevant later this year.

Doxakis works 88-92 with solid average stuff as a pitchability lefty who can eat innings. His slider has great whiff rates in the zone, which gives him a high floor as a reliever, possibly a multi-inning one, who can work through a lineup with heavy use of his breaking stuff. The shape of his fastball should theoretically pair well with a changeup, but Doxakis sometimes lacks feel for his change, a firm, mid-80s offering that has very little spin and has a chance to be an impact pitch. He’s a backed starter if that pitch develops.

I expect Perez will win the Rays backup catching job if and when we have a baseball season, and he would have graduated from this list last year had he not missed a lot of time rehabbing a hamstring strain. He is an athletic catcher with a plus arm, average receiving skills, and some feel to hit. After struggling to perform with the bat during the first several years of his career, Perez has now had three straight seasons of at least league-average offensive performance at Double- and Triple-A. He has a pull-and-lift style of hitting, but not enough raw power to optimize that kind of approach. He’s a safe bet to be a quality backup and has a non-zero chance to hit a little more than I expect and end up a low-end regular.

It’s been a long and winding road for Banda, who has been traded twice — Milwaukee sent him and Mitch Haniger to Arizona for Gerardo Parra in 2014, and then in 2018, Banda was part of the massive, three-team trade involving Steven Souza and Brandon Drury, among others — and finally looked like he’d get a long-term big league look in 2018. He was 10 innings shy of exhausting rookie eligibility when he tore his UCL and had Tommy John in early June, which shelved him until the very end of the 2019 season. He’s still a big league arm for me, probably a fastball/changeup reliever, but he had No. 4 starter stuff when he was healthy. His age and lack of roster flexibility might force his role to be whatever Banda is capable of handling immediately upon baseball’s return.

Mead, a 19-year-old Australian infielder, is an interesting developmental project for the Rays, who acquired him from Philadelphia for 40-man crunch reliever Cristopher Sanchez. Mead signed with just a few weeks left on the 2017 July 2 calendar and only played four games during the summer of 2018 before picking up at-bats during instructional league. While my scout and front office sources describe him as being raw, Mead performed surprisingly well — .285/.351/.462 with a 13% strikeout rate — against what was almost certainly the best pitching he’d ever seen. Rookie-level stats aren’t a reliable means of evaluation on their own, but in this case, they underscore a surprising level of competence given Mead’s inexperience.

The international and pro scouting sources I tapped mentioned Mead’s very projectable, 6-foot-2 frame first. He has power projection because of the frame and a fairly advanced hit tool given his background. He played shortstop as an amateur in Australia and all over the infield in 2019. Based purely on how he looks right now, Mead projects as a corner outfielder, but there may be more room for growth — better footwork and actions — as he accrues reps.

Another Day 2 college pitcher quickly flipped by the Mariners, Plassmeyer (who was part of the Mallex Smith/Mike Zunino deal) spent most of his first full pro season at Hi-A, where he walked just 16 hitters in 101.2 innings. Like many of the lefty pitchers the Rays seem to like for the org’s change of pace, bulk relief role, Plassmeyer’s fastball has a lot of lateral action because of his lower slot. He works his fastball in on righties (it has tough angle) and sometimes tails it off the plate away from them for swinging strikes. He can back foot his breaking ball consistently and his changeup has sufficient fade to miss bats. This is an elite pitchability lefty with very average stuff who I think ends up in the Yarbrough role.

Like Ford Proctor a few spots higher on this list, Gray was a three-year starter at Rice as a middle infielder and likely projects as a utility guy at the next level, though Gray is more of a shift-aided infielder who fits best at first base and can moonlight at others rather than a guy who’s primarily a middle infield fit. To contrast with Proctor, Gray was a lankier-framed prospect who has slowly filled out and added noticeable loft to his swing last year, so there’s more impact with the bat than there is with Proctor. He’s a lefty infield platoon type similar to 2019 Rule 5 pick Vimael Machin.

The addition of a 26th man to active rosters makes it less likely that someone like Dodson sees actual time as an outfielder, as teams now have the roster room to house someone who is both better at the things Dodson does as a positional player (he switch-hits, has contact feel from the left side, and throws and runs well) and can also do something else. I think it’s more likely he ends up a two-pitch reliever who only plays the field or hits in case of emergency. Three-batter minimums make obsolete the scenario where Dodson faces a hitter then plays center for a hitter or two before re-entering the game.

Peguero is a late-blooming power arm who took a step forward stuff-wise in 2018, then continued to pitch effectively out of Bowling Green’s bullpen in 2019, typically in two-inning outings. It’s a burgeoning, two-pitch relief profile.

Linares made it through just six 2019 innings before he blew out and needed Tommy John. He’s a low-slot lefty with a great breaking ball and a skinny frame that hasn’t filled out very much. His surgery was early enough that he’s likely to be back sometime in 2020, assuming baseball is. Where his velo is coming out of rehab will dictate if he moves up or down this list.

O’Grady is an older prospect who wasn’t given an opportunity to supplant Billy Hamilton in Cincinnati and found his way to the Rays via a small trade for cash or a PTBNL. I think he has big league tools. His 2019 power output was aided by the Triple-A ball but he has above-average raw power and straightline speed. He’s an interesting 1B/OF (including center) lefty-hitting bench piece.

Quiroz was Team Mexico’s leadoff hitter during the 2017 WBC (he hit two homers and a double in six at-bats) and spent 2015-’17 crushing the Mexican League. He signed with Boston in November 2017, and was hot the following April at Double-A, but then missed three and a half months with an abdominal strain. He only played in 24 games at Double-A, then had 62 extra plate appearances in the Arizona Fall League, where he played well and was seen by the entire pro scouting community. San Diego traded a 40-man crunch relief arm to Boston for Quiroz, then later flipped him to Tampa Bay as part of the Tommy Pham deal.

This is a very Rays sort of prospect. He has deft, all-fields contact ability and can (kind of) play an up-the-middle position. Quiroz presents rare 40-man flexibility because he’s arguably ready to contribute to a big league lineup right now, but because of how recently he signed, he doesn’t have to occupy a 40-man spot until this December. He can act as viable upper-level depth without occupying a 40-man spot. He lacks the defensive versatility to play a long term bench role but it woudln’t surprise me if he ended up being a low-end second base regular for someone for a couple seasons.

At one point, Stinson had the nastiest two-pitch combo in his draft class. As a sophomore mostly-reliever at Duke and during the following summer, he worked with two 70-grade pitches in his mid-90s heater and 3000 rpm slider. The following spring, Stinson was set to get his first extended look in the rotation but his velocity was mostly in the 80s without a clear reason. He was quickly shut down for the remainder of the college season, though specifics regarding the injury were not divulged at the time; sources have indicated to FanGraphs it was a nerve issue that may not require surgery. Stinson made just one appearance after he signed and sat 88-90. He has high-leverage relief potential with good health.

Gaston was a 15-year-old Cuban defector who, right around his 16th birthday, hit 100 mph while working out for teams. That nearly unprecedented velocity for his age obviously garnered a lot of attention in the scouting community, though Gaston often had 20 control when he scraped triple digits. He also isn’t classically projectable — his velocity is already at the top of the scale and he has a maturely-built frame at 6-foot, but he’s done some arm slot and arm action tinkering over the last few years that has affected his control and command. So while Gaston may get stronger as he physically matures, what’s more important is the projection of his feel for pitching, which appears to be more natural at a three-quarters arm slot with velocity more in the mid-90s, where his arm action is also more naturally online, than the higher slot where he was throwing harder and wilder.

Gaston’s best pitching performance was as the main event on the mound at the Víctor Víctor Mesa workout in Marlins Park, where the better version of his arm slot, arm action, and control was first seen by a large scouting audience. It didn’t hold. Gaston walked a batter per inning in his first pro season while sitting in the 93-97 range with the fastball. He’s a teenage relief prospect at this point.

Marte originally signed with the Twins for $3 million as one of the top position players in the 2017 July 2nd class. That deal was voided over concerns about Marte’s vision, but they weren’t as strong as they were for the last prospect who went through a situation like this, Dominican power-hitting right fielder Wagner Mateo. Mateo signed for $3.1 million with St. Louis in 2009, and after his deal was voided, signed with Arizona for $512,000 almost a year later. He played parts of four seasons before being released by the D-backs, having only appeared in 10 games in a full-season league, with a career .660 OPS.

Marte ended up signing with Tampa Bay less than a month after his deal was voided, this time for $820,000; Tampa Bay saw his vision as a correctable issue. Early looks in pro ball (Marte’s first fall instructs) were positive, but his performance since then has been concerningly bad. The eyeball reports of the physical talent, defense, and speed are still strong, but Marte officially has the contact red flags you’d expect someone with vision issues to exhibit.