Washington Nationals Top 39 Prospects

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Washington Nationals. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the fifth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.
A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.
All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here.
| Rk | Name | Age | Highest Level | Position | ETA | FV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Crews | 23.4 | MLB | CF | 2025 | 60 |
| 2 | Travis Sykora | 21.2 | AA | SP | 2026 | 55 |
| 3 | Jarlin Susana | 21.3 | AA | SP | 2027 | 55 |
| 4 | Brady House | 22.1 | MLB | 3B | 2025 | 45+ |
| 5 | Daylen Lile | 22.6 | MLB | LF | 2025 | 45 |
| 6 | Luke Dickerson | 19.9 | A | 2B | 2028 | 45 |
| 7 | Seaver King | 22.2 | AA | SS | 2027 | 45 |
| 8 | Cade Cavalli | 26.9 | MLB | SP | 2025 | 45 |
| 9 | Jake Bennett | 24.6 | A+ | SP | 2026 | 45 |
| 10 | Cole Henry | 26.0 | MLB | MIRP | 2025 | 40+ |
| 11 | Caleb Lomavita | 22.6 | A+ | C | 2027 | 40+ |
| 12 | Alex Clemmey | 20.0 | A+ | SIRP | 2028 | 40+ |
| 13 | Daniel Hernandez | 17.4 | R | C | 2031 | 40+ |
| 14 | Yoel Tejeda Jr. | 22.0 | A | SP | 2028 | 40+ |
| 15 | Victor Hurtado | 18.1 | R | RF | 2030 | 40+ |
| 16 | Cristhian Vaquero | 20.8 | A | CF | 2027 | 40+ |
| 17 | Robert Hassell III | 23.9 | MLB | CF | 2025 | 40 |
| 18 | Kevin Bazzell | 22.3 | A | C | 2026 | 40 |
| 19 | Andry Lara | 22.5 | MLB | SP | 2025 | 40 |
| 20 | Tyler Stuart | 25.7 | AAA | SP | 2025 | 40 |
| 21 | Jackson Kent | 22.4 | A+ | SP | 2028 | 40 |
| 22 | Dashyll Tejeda | 19.3 | R | CF | 2029 | 40 |
| 23 | Marconi German | 17.8 | R | SS | 2031 | 40 |
| 24 | Zach Brzykcy | 26.0 | MLB | SIRP | 2025 | 40 |
| 25 | Orlando Ribalta | 27.3 | MLB | SIRP | 2025 | 40 |
| 26 | Jackson Rutledge | 26.3 | MLB | MIRP | 2025 | 40 |
| 27 | Kevin Made | 22.8 | AA | SS | 2027 | 40 |
| 28 | Sir Jamison Jones | 19.1 | R | C | 2030 | 35+ |
| 29 | Angel Feliz | 18.6 | R | 3B | 2030 | 35+ |
| 30 | Brayan Cortesia | 17.6 | R | SS | 2031 | 35+ |
| 31 | Brad Lord | 25.4 | MLB | MIRP | 2025 | 35+ |
| 32 | Darren Baker | 26.4 | MLB | 2B | 2024 | 35+ |
| 33 | Marquis Grissom Jr. | 24.0 | AAA | SIRP | 2026 | 35+ |
| 34 | Yohandy Morales | 23.7 | AAA | 1B | 2026 | 35+ |
| 35 | Jorgelys Mota | 20.1 | A | 3B | 2028 | 35+ |
| 36 | Riley Cornelio | 25.1 | AA | SIRP | 2026 | 35+ |
| 37 | Erick Mejia | 30.7 | MLB | SIRP | 2022 | 35+ |
| 38 | Jose Feliz | 19.7 | R | SP | 2028 | 35+ |
| 39 | Carlos Tavares | 19.8 | A | 1B | 2029 | 35+ |
Other Prospects of Note
Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.
Hit Tool Questions
Sam Petersen, CF
Elijah Green, OF
Cayden Wallace, 2B/3B
Rafael Ramirez Jr., SS
Andrew Pinckney, OF
Maxwell Romero Jr., C
Petersen is a plus runner and above-average center field defender who was Washington’s eighth rounder out of Iowa last year. He has a 48% hard-hit rate so far this season, but a third of his at-bats have come during a rehab assignment in Florida, so take that with a healthy grain of salt. His swing takes forever to enter the hitting zone and he’s often late to the contact point, but the defense piece makes him a prospect. Green was striking out at a 40% clip yet again when the Nationals decided in mid-May to demote him to rookie ball to totally rework his swing. A front office source (not with Washington) texted me a rumor weeks ago that a big SEC program was attempting to court him for football. Several 2024 injuries made Wallace, a former second round pick, tough to evaluate (oblique strain, broken rib, back issues), but he hasn’t hit since he was acquired from Kansas City as part of the Hunter Harvey trade. This year, theoretically healthy, Wallace has struggled to catch up to fastballs (he’s hitting .197 against them the last two years) and has been chase-prone. At peak, he looked like a solid part-time corner player, but right now his bat looks really slow. Ramirez is a viable shortstop with average power who came from Cleveland in the Lane Thomas trade. He struck out over 30% of the time last year and hasn’t played yet in 2025 due to injury. Pinckney, a 6-foot-4 2023 draftee out of Alabama, is a plus runner with average power and a 30 hit tool. Romero is a 24-year-old lefty-hitting catcher with power who’s striking out more than 30% of the time for the second straight season (his first with Harrisburg).
Depth Relievers
Holden Powell, RHP
Daison Acosta, RHP
Junior Santos, RHP
A decorated college reliever, Powell has the second-most saves in UCLA history, was NCAA Stopper of the Year as a sophomore, and was the closer for Collegiate Team USA in 2019. He’s dealt with injuries (Powell has three 60-day IL stints since 2021), but he looks healthy in 2025 and is poised to blow through his single-season high in innings, which was only 37.2 entering the year. Powell hides his tailing 94 mph fastball well and has an above-average mid-80s slider, but his arm stroke is long and tough to repeat, so he has had issues throwing strikes enough to keep him from the main section of the list. When the Nats popped Acosta in the 2023 minor league Rule 5 draft, he had last made a prospect list in 2017 when he was a projectable GCL starter in the Mets system. Now he’s a wild reliever with a great splitter who has had trouble getting a foothold above Double-A due to 30-grade fastball command. Santos is a 6-foot-7, 250 pound righty who became prospect famous as a hard-throwing youngster in the Mets system, but his stuff plateaued in the mid-minors and didn’t tick up even when the Mets moved him to the bullpen. He joined the Nats on a minor league deal and is sitting 93-96 in a relief capacity at Harrisburg.
DSL Hitters
Nauris De La Cruz, OF
Esnaider Vargas, RF
Adrian Tusen, MIF
De La Cruz, 17, is a lefty-hitting outfielder who swings pretty hard for his size and has been tough to strike out so far. Vargas and Tusen are part of what I’d call the DSL’s second unit. They’re not getting as many reps as the other hitters and are probably two-year DSL guys, but they’re both really young and pretty toolsy. Vargas has some of the best present bat speed on the roster, while Tusen is arguably the most projectable after Victor Hurtado.
Rookie Ball Arms
Marlon De La Cruz, RHP
Darrel Lunar, RHP
Yaiker Torrelles, RHP
Jose Sanchez, RHP
De La Cruz, 19, is a 6-foot-2 righty with an advanced pitchability foundation. He’ll peak in the 95-97 mph range depending on the outing and flash a good slider, but right now that pitch is often below average. De La Cruz is built well and throws strikes; he’s a nice developmental sleeper. Lunar is a skinny 19-year-old righty who is the hardest thrower on the FCL roster (92-95, touching 97), though his heater plays down due to tailing movement and below-average command. Torrelles is an explosive little athlete generating nearly seven feet of extension despite being 5-foot-11. He’s touched 97 in the DSL this year in short outings. His curveball is 20 mph slower than his heater and is still developing. A converted outfielder, Sanchez is only sitting in the upper 80s right now, but his size and athletic ingredients are exciting, as he’s a projectable 6-foot-3 with super long levers.
Depth Starters
Davian Garcia, RHP
Robert Cranz, RHP
Hyun-il Choi, RHP
Travis Sthele, RHP
Erik Tolman, LHP
Garcia was the Nats’ 2024 sixth rounder out of Florida Gulf Coast, an undersized righty with a short stride and a high slot that produces a trick pitch splitter. He could eventually be a slider-heavy long reliever. Cranz was last year’ seventh rounder out of Oklahoma State. The angle on his fastball is really tough for hitters to match, and it’s generating a miss rate just over 30% in A-ball so far even though it sits 91-92. If Cranz can find a second above-average pitch (his breakers are currently playing like 40- and 45-grade offerings), he’ll be a big league reliever. Drafted from the Dodgers in the minor league Rule 5, Choi is a Korean sidearm starter who deploys an east/west attack with cutters and tailing fastballs at the top of the zone. He’s athletic and has feel for location, but he only sits 89-90 and resides in the depth starter talent band. Sthele was a 2023 12th rounder out of Texas assigned to High-A Wilmington. He’s an ultra-efficient strike-thrower with below-average stuff across the board. Tolman is a 26-year-old lefty out of ASU whose low-90s fastball/slider combo might be enough for him to be a third 40-man lefty. He’s had success as a swingman, but was only recently promoted to Wilmington.
System Overview
Well, it has been an interesting 24 hours for this franchise, which fired general manager Mike Rizzo and manager Davey Martinez yesterday. Mike DeBartolo, formerly senior VP and assistant GM, was named interim general manager. The change comes one week before the MLB Draft, in which the Nationals have this year’s first overall pick. In baseball, the person who effectively turns in the card to make the final decision as to who is drafted varies; it isn’t always the GM or POBO, though often times in the first round (especially at the very top of the first round) the head of the org, whatever their title, is involved in that decision. Chances are that Nationals VP of amateur scouting Danny Haas and senior director of amateur scouting Brad Ciolek are more intimately familiar with Washington’s options at pick no. 1 than Rizzo was, but Rizzo was no doubt involved in the process of communicating with agents and ownership about the decision, and now is no longer in the room. There’s continuity of thought here — it’s not as if all of the scouting reports collected under Rizzo walked out the door with him — but there are personnel dominoes falling at a very inconvenient time, which adds a degree of difficulty to a process the Nats kind of have to nail.
The player Washington selects first will most likely slot in at no. 3 in this system behind Sykora and Susana, as Crews has graduated. Nobody in this draft class can touch their combination of upside and proximity, though Sykora’s early removal from his last start prior to list publication makes his situation murkier. The Nats have nothing in the way of comp picks in this year’s draft, but that 1.1 bonus slot is so big that they might be able to get creative and throw money around in the later rounds anyway, though who knows whether the change at GM will have any impact on their level of comfort with getting frisky. Washington has taken high school players with hit tool question marks in the early rounds over the last while (Brady House, Elijah Green), with mixed results. It puts them in play for Ethan Holliday (who had a mediocre 73% contact rate on the showcase circuit) with the first pick.
This system remains shy of average in most respects, but is definitely better than it was a year ago. There are some signs of life as it pertains to developing pitching. Last year’s Nationals list had a league-low 12 pitchers on it. This year, despite losing some pitchers to graduation (Mitchell Parker, DJ Herz) in 2024, there are 18, including a couple of guys who are “arrow up” types within a year of being drafted. It’s a positive sign for an org that needs to manufacture pitching from within if the team is going to compete with the Mets, Braves and Phillies, who all enjoy some combination of financial and developmental might.
The cornerstone of Washington’s rebuilding effort has been pro scouting. They nailed the Juan Soto trade, which netted them James Wood, MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, Jarlin Susana, and Robert Hassell III. The entire core of the big league team at this moment comes from that trade. Other deals, like the Max Scherzer/Trea Turner trade with Los Angeles, have been more mixed, and there isn’t a great role-playing contingent supporting Wood, etc. The way the team has been playing this year shows they’re still far from contending. The original draft of this section went on to ask, “What’s a reasonable deadline for this front office group to produce a truly competitive postseason roster?” I spitballed that the end of the team’s control window for Gore (post-2027) and Abrams (post-2028) was a natural cutoff, but I guess we now have the Lerner family’s answer.
Can they add at this year’s deadline? They don’t have much in the way of tradable players on expiring deals. Josh Bell’s and Amed Rosario’s underlying stats have been better than their surface performance, and Kyle Finnegan was an All-Star last year, though he has lost a tick of velo. But there isn’t much beyond that unless the club is interested in moving Luis García Jr., who is in his arb years and is a free agent after the 2027 season. It feels like they’d be selling low on him, as García is more talented than his surface stats this year.
Internationally, the Nats have had some very high-profile misses during the last few years. Perhaps it’s too early to call Cristhian Vaquero a miss, but considering what they laid out for him bonus-wise and the opportunity costs of doing so (it’s tough to have a robust signing class when one guy gets almost $5 million), things aren’t going great. Victor Hurtado is kind of in the same bucket, while Armando Cruz ($3.9 million in 2022) and Andy Acevedo ($1.2 million in 2023) are more clearly cooked. There seems to have been a strategic shift here, as the Nats spread their bonus money out across more players in 2025 and have a pretty fun DSL group, with several position player prospects noted above. The scuttlebutt in the international scouting community is that, at least for the next couple of years, Washington will employ a similar strategy and avoid giving any one player $3 million or more.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
Really interesting here. I follow Nats minor leagues pretty closely, and this list generally has a lot of my personal interests (German, Dashyll, Jamison Jones, and Mota). One guy I’d also point at as a potential middle reliever is Adam Bloebaum. Part-time Driveline employee who is way old for his level in A/A+ ball, but really performing and flashing plus K/BB numbers. I think there’s a couple of these relievers they should push more, and I wonder if a new GM/Front office will be a bit more aggressive with their promotion timelines.
It’s truly crazy how this team now has 6 years of losing records/higher picks and has basically developed no one. The few good players they have all come from the Soto trade (plus maybe Crews who was an obvious pick at 1.2). Not surprising Rizzo just lost his job.
Really is crazy how the Soto trade has basically become that meme about Excel holding up the world’s economic systems.
Wood has 5 WAR and a 140 wRC+ 700 PA into his career
Abrams had a small slow start to his career but now has several seasons as an average to above player (and breaking out a bit more this year)
Gore has been a top 30 starter this joining the Nats
Susana is a 55 FV prospect
Hassell is probably a zero (despite being arguably the best prospect in the trade at the time) but even with that, the Nats have three, young successful MLB players and a fourth possibly on the way.
I still think Soto was worth all that, even in hindsight, but hard to find a better outcome for the Nats than that. Especially when you are trading a guy with a clear path to “top 20 player ever”
You know I’m sympathetic to the idea that your prospects bust, every fan thinks their team’s GM is terrible because every single prospect is much more likely to bust than succeed except guys like Harper and Strasburg who are generational prospects. But the Nationals have had horrific development across the board for something like a decade. They hit so big with Rendon, Harper, Strasburg, Soto, and a series of super savvy trades (e.g., Trea Turner) and free agent signings (e.g., Scherzer) that they succeeded in spite of everything.
Now I’m curious, so I looked it up. Between 2012 and 2025 they had 15 position players and 8 pitchers with 5 fWAR or more. Here are the other members of the NL East:
Mets: 15 position players, 13 pitchers
Phillies: 14 position players, 10 pitchers
Marlins: 13 position players, 7 pitchers
Braves: 19 position players (!!!), 10 pitchers
The Nationals are ahead of the Marlins and behind the Phillies on this measure, but not too far off. The Mets and Braves quite a bit ahead of the other three teams.
Now let’s look at the number of players with fWARs above 20:
Nationals: 4 position players, 3 pitchers
Mets: 4 position players, 1 pitcher
Phillies: 2 position players, 2 pitchers
Marlins: 1 position player, 0 pitchers
Braves: 4 position players, 0 pitchers
That very contrived measure (only players who had 20 or more fWAR) makes the Nationals look awesome, because nobody else has more than 5. But unsurprisingly total fWAR tells the same story as the one with 5 fWAR and above.
Nationals: 243.8 position player fWAR, 205.6 pitching fWAR
Mets: 278.1 position player fWAR, 210 pitching fWAR
Phillies: 205.1 position player fWAR, 223.3 pitching fWAR
Marlins: 151.1 position player fWAR, 152.9 pitching fWAR
Braves: 289.4 position player fWAR, 188.7 pitching fWAR
My conclusion is that Scherzer, Rendon, Harper, Strasburg, Soto, Trea Turner, and Gio Gonzalez were such amazing players for the Nationals that when supplemented with modestly successful veteran signings and trades (Patrick Corbin, Denard Span, Adam Eaton, Jayson Werth, Daniel Murphy, Wilson Ramos) and incredible durability in the pitching staff they were able to be one of the elite teams in MLB for something like 7 or 8 years. Just an incredible run of good veteran acquisition and health.
The other thing that they screwed up really badly–and it’s hard to know whether this was the front office’s doing or ownership’s–was not locking down the young guys to long-term contracts except Ruiz (who is terrible). I know exactly what the rebuttal to that is, that a lot of the guys in the Crews, Wood, Gore area are represented by Boras and they would drive a hard bargain. But can you imagine how different this situation would look if after last offseason they had been willing to offer Abrams, Wood, Gore, and Crews something that made absolutely no sense at all–like, $200M-$250M deals that bought out 5 free agent years. Would they have all said no? I have a hard time believing that, since pretty much all of them are better than what they would have gotten if they were free agents last offseason. And if they did, they would have another 5 years to develop guys to pair with them.
But they didn’t, and now Gore’s cost probably starts at Yamamoto’s guarantee at minimum and he’s going to get traded in a year for prospects who they can pair with whatever group of Susana / Sykora make it through the development ringer, who themselves will only overlap with Crews and Wood for a couple of years. They’re going to be on the young guys under team control treadmill for a long time.
The party line for a few years now has that ownership has been waiting for the Strasburg and Corbin contracts to burn out before they were willing to commit any more real money to the roster.
We’re just about there (seriously, still one more year for Strasburg!), and with a new management team coming in during the offseason we’re about to find out which way the team is going to go. I think the offseason managerial hiring decisions will be a good bellwether for what the payroll future of this team is really going to be.
Exactly my thoughts as well. If they hire internally, I’ll have pretty low expectations. Fwiw, while the actual payroll has dropped, Martinez and Rizzo were reportedly one of the highest paid GM?Manager duos. If they are really willing to invest in good hires from a good org (one of the AGMs in TB, LA, MIL, BOS, or DET would interest me), I think they can see a similar jump to Detroit from 2 years ago.
Boston hasn’t been a top FO in years at this point.
Now if they can get someone like Click, they’ll be cooking with gas!
Ehh… they have a great farm and have been lauded for their bat def and now recently their revamped pitching dev
You can argue they haven’t been as committed to spending or whatever but they’re clearly smart. I wouldn’t put them in w LA, TB, MIL, etc but in the top half of the league for sure
I don’t have any idea how to rate Boston’s FO at this point. They are clearly very good at some things, and they are spending a lot of time cleaning up ownership messes. And it’s also a weird mix of people who have been there forever and guys who haven’t been there long enough to really judge.
It’s also hard because the difference between the #5 front office and the #20 front office is pretty minimal. The Nationals had a bad front office but they fired everyone, and the White Sox, Angels, Pirates, and Rockies are also a mess. But aside from them? The Blue Jays are probably in the 22-24 range and they’re leading the AL East.
This is a good point. Most front offices are in that really big, just okay, kinda good, sometime bad, idk, average bucket. So not a lot separating the 10th best vs 25th best FO. I’d put them into these 4 buckets:
Tier 1 – TB, Det, Mil, LAD
Tier 2 – Sea, Phi, Atl, NYM
Tier 3 – everyone else
Tier 4 – Col, ChiW, LAA, Was, Pit
I don’t know where I would put the Tier 2 teams but I would personally have a very hard time distinguishing between the D-Backs / Mariners / Phillies / Yankees / Guardians / Orioles / Red Sox / Rangers / Cubs / Twins. I have ordered them in roughly the order I would put them, and I am pretty sure the D-Backs are better than the Twins. But you could move any of these teams five spots forward or back and I wouldn’t blink, and I don’t think the difference between the D-Backs and Twins is particularly noticeable.
At this point I am pretty convinced that the Tigers and Dodgers are the best in MLB, the Rays, Brewers, Braves, and Mets are the next best in some order, the last tier belongs together except for the Rockies that are in their own level of ineptitude, and then there is a huge middle group that is good but not elite or that I don’t know much about (like the Giants). Front offices are so much more consistent now.
I’ll defend my Seattle rank. They have 3 home grown stud SPs. Acquired Castillo for nothing then extended him. JRod and Raleigh are both home grown studs. That’s an extremely impressive home grown core. I’d put their top 5 in house talents against any other orgs. It’s just too bad they have no money to spend.
Philly – i’ll admit they are a borderline tier 2/3 front office for me. But they develop pitching well. Suarez and Sanchez came out of nowhere and are great #2 types, they brought Wheeler to ace level, Luzardo was acquired for peanuts, and they sign really great free agent contracts. Who has hit better on this many big contracts (Harper, 1st Wheeler deal, Realmuto, Schwarber, and Turner)?
Seattle’s 2023 draft alone warrants them consideration.
Also, Brian Woo.
The Phillies have been one of the worst run teams spanning 30 years-Wade, Gillick, Amaro Jr (who became a 1b coach again after being GM lol), Klentak, then Dombrowski. They just 2007 Yankees’d a top payroll with a lot of DH’s into a competitive team.
Sure Dombrowski looks competent compared to that crew-but he is still making 2007 moves like signing Max Kepler or Craig Kimbrel-he has 0 creativity. The Luzardo trade was his best move by far, and underscores that you should always be trying to trade with the Marlins, White Sox, and Rockies if possible.
My biggest issue with him though is that he always gives up the prospects who turn into studs dating back to his days w Detroit and the Expos (arguably Preller and definitely Cashman’s biggest strengths are keeping the right players and trading away the duds).
And that is without incorporating dev ops- I look at teams like the Dodgers and Tigers, even Milwaukee or Tampa Bay, and they are actually developing arms into better pitchers. Teams like the Phillies (Oakland is the worst at this) just wait for pitchers to age and develop.
Which “studs” has Dombo traded, haha?
Yoan Moncada, maybe?
Matt Vierling?
Certainly no one on the level of Turner or Fried.
Tbh i don’t even think the tier 2 teams on that list would be above a lot of the tier 3 teams.
I think a lot of teams are pretty smart. There’s a few really smart teams and a few behind the curve. But mostly most teams are pretty good.
“But can you imagine how different this situation would look if after last offseason they had been willing to offer Abrams, Wood, Gore, and Crews something that made absolutely no sense at all–like, $200M-$250M deals that bought out 5 free agent years. Would they have all said no? I have a hard time believing that…”
I don’t know who represents Abrams, but Boras is just not going to sign extensions unless the player demands it – similar stars Boras represents – one could argue even better – in Baltimore – are also thought not to be interested in signing extensions.
Would they all say no? I think, other than Abrams, the answer is Yes.
I’m still not buying Dylan Crews as a 60 (and I do not say this based on MLB), he hit just decently in minors last year. He has good speed but if more of a CF/COF tweener, he doesn’t have huge power (sub 200 iso), and he doesn’t pull fly balls.
I hate to say it, but I really think there’s a not insignificant chance that he ends up being a relative bust (2 WAR player).
Yeah, his minor league results are not spectacular. Would be interesting to know if he also had a big wOBA – xwOBA gap in the minors as well.
I think it’s fair to be skeptical because that walk to strikeout ratio is super ugly. And because it looks like he will be pushed to a corner by better center fielders, and it seems like his defense is not playing up in a corner like one would expect (he’s at least average, probably better than that, but probably not elite).
But I also think his contact quality is so much better than his BABIP that this can’t possibly continue. He’s making a ton of great contact, and Barrel % is typically sticky. He’d probably be a 115 wRC+ based on on his batted ball stats, and that’s with a strikeout to walk ratio that is so out of line with what we expected.
Right now what seems to be happening is a perfect storm of bad pitch recognition and an inability to make contact. His CSW% is abysmal (31 out of 274), which is wild because his O-Swing% and Z-Swing% are dead-center in the middle of the distribution. He’s not swinging too much, he’s not swinging too little, but he’s got elevated rates of both called strikes and missing when he does swing, like a 40 on pitch recognition and a 30 on bat to ball. If neither of those things improve, he’s going to bust. If even one of them goes up a full grade, he’s going to murder enough pitches with a 14.5% barrel rates that he’ll justify being a 60. I think he’s got to improve something compared to where he is now, because right now what he’s doing seems at odds with every scouting report I’ve read.
Also, it is really weird to be the high person on Crews. I’ve been skeptical of the supposed hype around him ever since it started, and I think his road to being a 4 win guy is super bumpy if he gets moved to right field based on having other better defenders in CF. But I’m not sure how much that should affect his grade, and what’s happening here is so hard to understand that I have to remain bullish on him, in the realm of him being a 55.
I really want Crews to be successful (he’s a great person), but I too am a little skeptical. His two best comps currently playing are Jasson Domínguez and Jordan Beck. Dominguez walks more, elevates the ball better, and is a much worse defender. But is also a year younger. Beck is a year older and worse defender but otherwise has a very similar profile to Crews (not flattering).
Considering Crews didn’t set the world on fire last year in the minor either (especially for an advanced college bat), he really needs to show some improvements in the back half of this year to justify being a 60 FV.
The crews pick will haunt them for years when they could have had clark, wilson, mcgonigle, and plenty others. He has all the bad signs
Absolutely nobody thought that they should have taken Wilson or McGonigle, that was a five-person top tier and while reasonable people disagreed on who would be best nobody expected them to pick anyone outside of that group. Wilson was underslot IIRC, McGonigle went either in a comp round or the second round.
But the fact that they passed on Langford and Clark is probably going to haunt them for a while. I think they’re both going to be 60s, and I think there are some real questions about Crews here.
Right, the big 5 included Langford, Clark, and Jenkins. Many evaluators had Langford higher, and I think Langford had the best mix of upside and floor at the time. I don’t think many (any?) had Clark ahead at draft time, even though he’s a better prospect now.
IIRC my preference order was Langford and Skenes (as a tie), then Clark and Crews (as a tie) and then Jenkins (with Dollander being close behind, mostly because I was persuaded by the scouting reports on Jenkins).
But I think a lot of the public facing analysts had Jenkins ahead of Clark because his tools were louder, and there were a lot of people who had Crews first by a lot. I never understood that, it always seemed like they were pretty well bunched together. But I don’t believe I saw a single person who would put any of Wilson, Lowder, Dollander, Matt Shaw, Kyle Teel, or anyone else in the top 5. The other options were always Jenkins, Clark, or Langford.
Dude. You lost your creditability with saying Riley green would be a bench player. Dat you randy Smith?
Oh man it’s Milton Friedman who changed his name to “socialist” so that his bad opinions wouldn’t reflect on libertarians! We missed you buddy!
Also, to respond to your point: If you have opinions online, you will make predictions that will be very wrong. Riley Greene isn’t even close to the biggest miss I’ve had, that would be Aaron Judge who I was amazingly, spectacularly wrong about. #2 would probably be the Giancarlo Stanton trade. And I think it’s quite possible I’m about to be very, very wrong in my initial assessment of Buster Posey as GM. This stuff happens.
Cavalli: “upper-90’s changeup?” Should that be upper-80’s?
This team cannot just take the top prospect on their board this time around. This system is an absolute mess given how bad the MLB team is. They need a lot of help. One guy is not going to do it.
There are like 5 guys who all have about the same grade in Holliday, Willits, Arquette, Anderson, and Arnold (I would also add Carlson and Doyle, I think they’re at the top personally). They need to figure out which guy is going to take the lowest bonus in their top 5, grab them, and then load up on overslot guys later.
And then hire someone who has been in an organization that has developed prospects.
Agreed. This is the year to go quantity when the top of the draft is fairly light, but the depth is strong.
They need to be ALL all-in on Click
He would be a great choice. I have some questions about whether he wants to move his whole family again with the Nationals being for sale relatively recently. Wouldn’t want to uproot everyone only to get replaced because they changed their mind about selling the team again.
But if the Lerners continued to own the team and the kids do less negotiating with agents than the dad did then it would be a pretty good job? There are some resources here and it’s not like the organization is totally devoid of talent.
I think of the guys in the 45 range I think House and Lile a whole lot more than Dickerson, King, and Cavalli. I think House has a stable floor because of 3B defense and the power will eventually play in games enough for him the team to not actively look to replace him. Lile doesn’t really have a role on this team with James Wood and his defense is horrible in RF, but I think he has a shot to hit better than this (and field better if he is in left).
I have been skeptical about Cavalli as a starter for years but at this point I don’t know if he is going to pitch at all, his availability looks like a tower of Jenga blocks. King might get into the game a lot because he can play shortstop and someone always needs a guy to stand there but I don’t see how he’s going to hit.
I think Jacob Young will not be the full-time long term Cf, so I am optimistic Crews will end up there at least against righty starters. That opens up right to Lile against righties, with Hassell in the mix. Against lefties, there’s room to slide Crews to right and play Young in cf. Young has gotten less effective as a baserunner and needs to maintain a .320 obp to be more than a backup or platoon despite the great d. There’s also room for a corner OF if they were to hit on one in a deal or free agency.
Susana might debut in 2026 but I don’t think he will be ready to start then, despite him already being in AA. He is going to need a ton of time to figure out how to throw strikes.
I don’t really know whether it makes sense to question the overall grade because he does have freaky pitches but I do think he will be a slower burn. I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes until opening day of 2028.
It feels like such an odd decision to fire the GM a week before the draft. Eric touches on this, but imagine the chaos in that draft room. Unsure if they will have a clear plan.
It feels like they should have made this move last off-season. The team has been playing about how I expected coming into the year. I’m left a little confused what the owner saw between October last year and now that made him want to move on from Rizzo. If he has done it last off-season the new GM has a chance to eval this class and pick who they like and start making moves for the future.
The Elijah Green arc is a wild one
There’s a well-known theory that Mike Trout lasted until the 25th pick in 2009 largely because another south Jersey high school hitter, Billy Rowell, went 9th in 2006 and busted. Elijah Green is the opposite: James Wood somehow lasted until pick 62 in 2021, and when another super physical outfielder from the same school was available the next year, the Nationals weren’t going to let that happen again. Someone else would have had the same thought if they hadn’t, and at least they came out ahead by trading for Wood.
There is a lot of negativity surrounding this org bc of the Rizzo firing immediately before the draft (which has to be a bad look when negotiating w potential draft picks), but I think this org is honestly in a really good spot compared to 1-2 years ago.
C: Ruiz(27)/Adams (29)
2B: Garcia (25)
SS: Abrams (24)
3B: House (22)
RF: Crews (23)
CF: Young (25)
LF: Wood (22)
DH: Lile (22)
That is a young core. There’s a lot of talk about how much team control Gore/Abrams have left, but people forget that this team can run top 5 payrolls. Depending on who the new GM is, they could spend ~$60-$80M on 2 SPs and a 1B/DH (Cease, Michael King, and Naylor would prob cost ~$80M/year) if they think they’re ready.
If they were to just trade away Gore and Abrams, then eventually Wood, that would be a huge missed opportunity.
Keibert Ruiz and core? Ruiz has easily been one of the worst catchers in the league and that would be an easy position to upgrade at.