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Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, and Ben Clemens banter about World Series roster and rotation decisions, the Fall Classic through a “styles make fights” lens, whether travel days are really rest days, and more. Then (31:50) Ben C. delivers a guest Stat Blast about whether bullpen games are really risky because the more pitchers you use, the more likely you are to run into a reliever who “doesn’t have it” that day, and Ben L. Blasts about players who played for three playoff teams in the same season and players who played for a few World Series winners in a row without appearing in the postseason. Finally (1:02:33), Ben and Meg banter about Angels turnover, Yankees non-turnover, Shohei Ohtani’s two-way future, NPB postings, a KBO breakout, a new baseball video game and K-drama, and a Yandy Díaz nickname.
If last night’s Game 1 was any indication of the action to come, we’re in for a thrilling World Series. The Brewers jumped out to an early lead and barely held on to beat the Rays, 3-2.
The game had plenty of action. The first run scored on a Christian Yelich triple to center field. Jonny DeLuca laid out for it and nearly made a sensational catch. It was a fitting way for a World Series between these two teams to begin. There were two outs at third base, the first when Victor Mesa Jr. was caught stealing to end the top of the fifth, the second in the home half of the frame when Mesa cut down David Hamilton trying to stretch a double. William Contreras caught two Rays trying to steal. Junior Caminero scorched a 112.7-mph double in the fourth inning. Jacob Misiorowski casually and consistently threw 103-mph heaters, but only struck out three batters. The Rays loaded the bases against closer Trevor Megill in the ninth, and grounded into what was initially ruled a game-ending double play. Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash challenged, and the out call at second was overturned after replay revealed that shortstop Cooper Pratt’s foot came off the bag before he received the throw from second baseman Brice Turang. The call at first was confirmed for the second out, but a run scored. Still, the drama was all for naught; Megill took the mound again and struck out DeLuca to end it.
For more on the fun in Game 1, check out Michael Baumann’s story from Milwaukee. He’ll be providing in-person reporting throughout the World Series, so be sure to follow along. And if you haven’t yet joined us for a Members-Only Game Thread during this postseason, I can’t recommend them enough. Conversations we’ve had in those threads inspired two of the questions we’re answering in this week’s mailbag, on the most heroic World Series losers and the fewest number of starts a pitcher would need to win the Cy Young. We’ll get to those questions and more in a moment, but first, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »
MILWAUKEE — The 2026 Brewers aren’t your typical postseason buzzsaw. They’ve won with defense and relief pitching, and their eight postseason victories have come by a combined 13 runs. Half of those games ended either with a Milwaukee walk-off hit, or with the opponent’s tying run on base. Every postseason game the Brewers have played was a one-run game in the sixth or later; they haven’t scored more than seven runs in a game since their 101st regular-season win.
But they are a buzzsaw, and in Game 1 of the World Series — Milwaukee’s first Fall Classic game in 44 years — into the blade went the Tampa Bay Rays. The Brewers put two runs on the board in the top of the first, and they led the rest of the way, albeit not by much. Jacob Misiorowski allowed one run over five innings, tying the longest postseason outing of his career, and the Rays struggled to put a counterattack together until a furious but ill-fated ninth-inning rally.
Welcome to our Open Game Thread for the World Series game today. Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual staff Q&A chats, your messages will be posted immediately.
Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this is a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts. We might even have some FanGraphs Staff drop in and join the fun. Please be courteous to your fellow Members, or you may find your chat privileges revoked.
drplantwrench
i think the team that has the highest BLEPH is going to win tonight
Feels like August got an unlucky draw here, he's awesome but Jeff IS classic FanGraphs
Sean Dolinar
August was one of the first _writers_ to leave for a team. And definitely the first of many here. Because after him was Cameron, Carson, then Sullivan.
raregokus
lol shows what I know!
BryanB
Pretty special series here.
BryanB
Cmon clap for respect
Jon Becker
Hello folks!
Jeremy Fox
Need a poll on whether it's a good idea for the Rays to push Rasmussen back a day, or if they're overthinking it.
Rich Hill's Fastball
This is a situation where I defer to "the team has more information than we do." Ramsussen's feel, rest, etc.
lzfreak
I also wonder if there's wisdom in trying to maximize your chances of winning the non-Miz games. Probably getting a little too cute if that's the thought process, but it might play a role
Sean Dolinar
I'd come down on the side of too cute. I'd want my ace to be available as much as possible during the WS.
BryanB
No overweight players anymore 😂
Sean Dolinar
Those Brewers entrance LEDs/Barrels/CO2 machines actually looked really good. Most of the time, whatever the teams do looks bad.
BryanB
I can sing much better than this in opposite land.
g4
She crushed the anthem. Damn
BryanB
I wonder if the NPB is like, World? Really?
drplantwrenchedited
theyre prolly more like "World?, 本当に？"
Phil
Is the roof open? I'm streaming the radio broadcast and they haven't mentioned while I was paying attention.
Sean Dolinar
I don't believe MLB allows it to be open. Or at least they are in charge of it. It should be closed to my knowledge.
Phil
Pity. If you have baseball in Wisconsin in late October, it should feel like it.
BryanB
Yah it’s closed
Michael Baumann
If they have a problem with it they can come over here and take it from us
g4
Too soon. lol
Phil
They sent Ohtani to take it.
drplantwrenchadmin edited
what in the AI bulls**t is this malarkey
comradeyurika
It sucks that the one time of year where there's amazing nationally televised baseball is also the one time of the year when commercial breaks are full of the most vile ads
Michael Baumann
I just realized that before tonight, I'd been to as many World Series, with as many wins to show for it, as both these teams put together
Sean Dolinar
Do they have cheese curds and Spotted Cow in the pressbox?
Michael Baumann
There's a whole curd stand on this level. That's where I took the now-infamous Brat Rangoon photo. But no Spotted Cow. They didn't even have it at the bar I ate dinner at last night
g4
Nearly all the other New Glarus beers are better than Cow … but you knew that
lzfreak
Any idea when this game will actually start?
Sean Dolinar
I was thinking 8:08, but looks like that wasn't the case.
drplantwrench
tomorrow afternoon
Davy Andrews
Hey friends!
drplantwrench
two batters, two relatively well hit balls
Davy Andrews
Baumann, how's Wisconsin treating you?
Sean Dolinar
He has had no spotted cow. I don't believe he's actually in Wisconsin.
Michael Baumann
One of my fellow writers just produced a two-pound bag of sausage from his backpack and offered to share, so things are going well here
drplantwrench
its too bad this cant also be streamed via mlb tv. im on fubo instead and gonna be like 30 seconds delayed
Jeremy Fox
Nothing but cheese from Miz so far
lzfreak
He's in the right state for cheese
Sean Dolinar
Just like the Woodman's cheese aisle.
Davy Andrews
What a delightful swing from Simpson. I love it.
Rich Hill's Fastball
Raysball right there
fishnchips
What’s our take on the lineup choices? Milwaukee tinkering with order a bit and someone with a Time Machine from 2005 would have a heart attack about Simpson hitting 3…
Jeremy Fox
It's hilarious how shallow the LF was and how quickly he got to Simpson's hit.
Phil
I do like that David Hamilton.
comradeyurika
Miz looking good so far
BryanB
Rays def not afraid of Miz
drplantwrench
brewers def not afraid of nick martinez
chasfh
That Simpson hit? 57.8 MPH.
Davy Andrews
Beautiful.
raregokus
Brings a tear to my eye
Jeremy Fox
Big spot already for Martinez. The Brewers feel like a bad matchup for him.
Davy Andrews
Wow, the green screen ad behind the batter is particularly egregious.
drplantwrench
it looks like the typical angels broadcast (derogatory)
chasfh
Yeah, I really miss charming local advertising in games. Happens on NHL dasherboards, too.
BryanB
Next year you will be forced to bet on the game in order to watch it
comradeyurika
Is Bauers okay? That was only six pitches
Solitaire
Yelich batting third? Why?
Solitaire
Welp
drplantwrench
Baseball Posts that Age Poorly
Solitaire
I need a forehead slap emoji
raregokus
Is it just me or does Smoltz trip over his words way more often than other color guys
Jeremy Fox
Slightly to my surprise, here in Canada Sportsnet has their own announcing crew I guess? I don't have to listen to Smoltz!
raregokus
Just like a Canadian to flaunt their superiority.
Davy Andrews
That's why.
NATS Fan
He missed the catch! hello everyone
chasfh
Man, I am so used to major leaguers making those catches that I am half-tempted to call for an error on that.
Phil
Can I change my vote on holding back Rasmussen?
Sean Dolinar
I'll make a poll tomorrow that has a choice: I regret my vote from yesterday.
Davy Andrews
My goodness. Both of those balls hit leather.
Rich Hill's Fastball
Scorched off the bat
NATS Fan
Looks like the Rays defense is not crisp today.
drplantwrench
xBA of .630 and .620 according to statcast
BryanB
Luck on Brewers side so far
drplantwrench
hard to blame the rays defense with those EVs imo
raregokus
Rays just getting all the bad luck out of the way inning 1 of game 1. It's strategic
Keaton Arneson
I've determined that I want Milwaukee to win. The thought of Chandler Simpson batting #3 on a world series team is too much to handle.
Davy Andrews
The guy who almost won a batting title?
Rich Hill's Fastball
FanGraphs batting title should be wRC+
Davy Andrewsedited
Personally, I find myself leaning Milwaukee just because they had the Violent Femmes playing a pregame concert. You deserve to win when you do that.
Keaton Arneson
Simpson did beat Jose Ramirez by 1 wRC+ this year… But Cleveland is on another level strategically by batting him #2 instead
Davy Andrews
They made Chourio the Fonz. That works.
drplantwrench
rays should just get the bad luck out of the way for the next 4 games
NATS Fan
Simpson will get hits and never hit into DPs.
drplantwrench
i love chandler simpson, but why not bat him first and push yandy/aranda down a slot
Jeremy Fox
Not really a question quite yet but: if you're the Rays, how aggressive do you want to be using your best bullpen arms early if you're behind in this game?
chasfhedited
On the road in Game 1, maybe not so much?
SnakesAlive
What I'm curious about is how often Cash will turn to his top end guys while losing, he did it a lot against Cleveland, if Milwaukee gets 4-5 looks I'd be worried
Jeremy Fox
Yeah, same, but I've felt the same several other times in these playoffs only to find the managers disagreed with me.
raregokus
Definitely feels like the Rays bullpen isn't set up as well as the Brewers' for this type of situation. Tons of single inning guys with a reasonably well defined hierarchy, bad combination if you're trying to avoid giving too many looks
drplantwrench
or maybe 2nd if you still want yandy at leadoff
g4
As a Crew fan, live the Rays bringing the infield in 1st inning. Dubious
Jeremy Fox
Great challenge. Gotta be sure to challenge in a low-leverage spot.
chasfh
Miz tightened up pretty good in the second
jw757
Against Cleveland that was definitely not a swing. 🤣#miz perks
Jeremy Fox
Great piece of hitting by Frelick to go down and get that. Wow. His back knee was almost on the ground.
SnakesAlive
O/U 7.5 bunts tonight now that the first one is down?
raregokus
I want to live in a world where that over hits
Jeremy Fox
I only want to live in that world if they're attempts to bunt for hits
SnakesAlive
I personally don't think Hamilton will do anything other than attempt to bunt for hits
AdvantageSchneider
Ask Edwin Diaz about that.
BryanB
Is it just my TV or is the video stretched vertically?
Rich Hill's Fastball
I don't have that here
bosoxforlife
No TV problem here.
raregokus
Did it make Nick Martinez's muscles looked normal sized
chasfh
Pretty odd Savant pitch value profile for Nick Martinez: 97th percentile for fastball, 91st percentile for offspeed, 17th percentile for breaking
Michael Baumann
The changeup he got Mitchell on to end the first was absolutely gross
Michael Baumann
From ~200 feet, Sal Frelick looks enough like Garrett Stubbs when he's running I've done a double take whenever he gets on base
docgooden85
I'm Abed from Community and there are several plausible timelines where DeLuca and Walls catch both of those balls.
drplantwrench
are they the ones where everyone has goatees though
NATS Fan
your Pudi. hey! Loved that show back in the day
Rich Hill's Fastball
A lockout is the darkest timeline
docgooden85
I'm not Danny Pudi but did not have faith people would get the reference without me setting it up.
Rich Hill's Fastball
Misiorowski in the mooooorning
g4
Martinez actually looks super sharp
docgooden85
First guessing here – I always want the best pitcher in game 1 of WS to maximize the odds of using him thrice 1-4-7.
BryanB
+1 for using thrice
drplantwrench
fantastic band, and good baseball writers
Jeremy Fox
Rays have taken several middle-middle four seamers already.
chasfh
Can’t hit it if you can’t see it
Jeremy Fox
Has Miz thrown a good breaking ball yet?
moomin
must've heard you and obliged
SnakesAlive
Enjoyed the horizontal statcast view of the slider vs 4S. I feel like statcast never gets utilized in unique ways on the national broadcasts, would like to see some more of that
BryanB
Totally! No brainer.
NATS Fan
Who in the minors is the next Miz? if anyone
NATS Fan
Susana?
Philedited
Was the Miz the next Miz in the minors? My recollection was that he was thought of as high ceiling, super high risk, potential future closer.
NATS Fan
that sounds like what they say about Susana
g4
His command jumped from below average to average just before he was called up. Tough for prospect raters to adjust
docgooden85
Yankees-Dodgers is clearly the darkest timeline from a World Series perspective
g4
The Miz cutter is working. More please
chasfhedited
I’ve been having a debate wit someone about what we think the TV ratings for this Series will be. He thinks it will be worst in history because of the small market teams. I think the various narratives around this Series will goose the ratings some and be reasonably decent considering this fragmented media era.
Sean Dolinar
This is interesting. 2023 was the worst per Wikipedia. And those are bigger markets.
chasfh
But also far less interesting teams. IMHO
Sean Dolinar
Crazy to think in 1978, we'd be watching with 44.4 million other people.
Sean Dolinar
In 2026, we might only have 8 million other people.
chasfh
I’m sure that many people will see clips.
joem1617
sounds like a waste of time unless one of you works for Fox. watch the games, who cares?
Patrick Burke
This is MIND BOGGLING!
BryanB
Curious how people are watching. I’m on YouTubeTV.
NATS Fan
I bought a one month fox subscription through Prime
Phil
Listening to Brewers radio via MLB app.
drplantwrench
Fubo…
Tom Rhoads
OTA local Fox station at the moment… might switch to stream (Sling) later
Michael Baumannedited
Yandy first time up: 99.9 mph exit velo, 347 feet the other way, F9
Second time up: 101.7 mph exit velo, .650 xBA, lineout.
Miz has handled everyone else fine but Yandy must want his money back
docgooden85
Yandy's LASER was a good example of why playing 3B is fun (if you have the balls for it, and protect them).
fishnchips
The brewers just put teams in the vortex
Patrick Burke
I'm rooting for the Brewers because I'm a Yankee fan, but also because I really want to see Yelich win one. Do the rays have anyone like that? Rasmussen with his injuries maybe?
Rich Hill's Fastball
But what was Yandy's BLEPH?
drplantwrench
yandy paying to hit against Miz is real sicko stuff
docgooden85
the man wears medium T shirts – those poor shirts!
NATS Fan
the MIA/Brewers trade for Yelich was armed robbery!
BryanB
Best Kalshi add I’ve seen. Still will never use that trash.
chasfh
Shane Gillis and Danny McBride doing a Kalshi ad together is excruciatingly on-brand.
Dana
This chat is cool on the app to use
BryanB
How do I get to it on the app?
Patrick Burke
Has any other team ever worn their alternates this much in the playoffs
docgooden85
Laying off all that 100 plus, half an inch off the corner was really impressive by Aranda
sadtrombone
I finally got here only to find out I missed a triple! That’s sad, I love triples.
docgooden85
With Yelich's original back it would have been a homer. It was a nice barrel (I assume).
raregokus
Sorry to be that guy, but it was a fake triple! It hit leather!
AdvantageSchneider
On a diving attempt
riffkey
I'm really liking new teams and players in the Series
docgooden85
Chandler SImpson batting 3rd feels a little "too cute" to me
Jeremy Fox
Ugh, Mitchell botched that one.
fishnchips
That was a screamer
lzfreak
That's a lot of hits on balls that hit the glove today
BryanB
Yah he wasn’t running
Tom Rhoads
Balls off CF glove 1 to 1
chasfh
I’ve played plenty of center and liners right at you are the worst
BryanB
I think Miz is done
chasfh
At low 50s pitches? You sure?
BryanB
Nope
docgooden85
Mitchell was an E8 (in a world where I'm official scorer)
Anonymous Member #46
The threshold is "ordinary effort," and he broke in the right direction and was at a full stretch. That's a hit.
Doug Lampert
I usually keep score when I'm at the park, and I largely ignore what the official scorer says.
bosoxforlife
It's a hit but a lot of CF's would have had it in their hip pocket.
docgooden85
You're probably right based on how it's done. But in my timeline, you're supposed to catch that ball.
chasfh
Some would, but I think a lot wouldn’t. That wasn’t a gimme.
Phil
There's a surprising amount of multiverse theory in this chat.
NATS Fan
In the other multiverse, no one is talking about the multiverse and the Rockies are winning.
lzfreak
Are official scorers allowed to use Statcast catch probabilities?
chasfh
The last thing I want to see on a World Series broadcast is the betting trend for who’s gonna win.
docgooden85
I'm going to be laughing about "Misiorowski in the Mooorning" for days to come. Thank you for that.
g4
Holy crap Aranda was off the line. Rays positioning I tell you what
docgooden85
that should count toward 2B eligibility
bosoxforlife
There haven't been many instances where I have seen a 1st baseman that far into the hole.
BryanB
There is a 98.9% chance that this chat is 50% more filled with stats than 90% of other chats.
chasfh
Was that an odd place for the first baseman to play Pratt 3-and-2, two out, none on? He was practically lined up with where second baseman plays.
goodmjim
I love you Jonathan Aranda
bosoxforlife
I am not surprised to see Murphy get someone up. Misiorowski is not quite the same tonight.
brewersbibliophile
He’s been off for a while now. The season has definitely worn him down a bit
Jeremy Fox
Miz down to 97
docgooden85
In the Miz vs Skubal game I couldn't stop looking at their enormous feet. That game might have had the largest combined SP shoe size of all time. (Someone research this please)
NATS Fan
John Rauch had the biggest feet I ever saw an a ball player.
docgooden85
also would accept ratio of combined shoe size to ERA
NATS Fan
Rauch did not win that
fishnchips
The foul balls are noticable
bosoxforlife
He can't put the hitters away like he usually does.
BryanB
Bauers!
Nate
That was a really impressive play on both sides
Jeremy Fox
Have the playoffs demonstrated a playbook against Miz, that all opponents will take up next season?
BryanB
Wait to hit him until the post
Nate
Seems more like fatigue than the scouting being especially better. The command on his breaking pitches has been abysmal so they can afford to sit fastball
David
Maybe, but it's always a game of adjustments, and if the strategy results in 5 innings of 1 run ball…
BryanB
See? Told you he’s done.
Jeremy Fox
Surprised Miz is still in there for Yandy.
Phil
What on earth???
Rosin Bag
!?!?
bosoxforlife
Bizarre play there with Yandy at the plate?
BryanB
Yaaaaaas Contreras!!!!!
Jeremy Fox
Why the hell are you stealing third there???
moomin
……….
fishnchips
Someone forward the Rays Ben Clemens resume
NATS Fan
I would rather he stayed here.
Nate
Contreras continuing to have an incredible postseason
docgooden85
I'm just an unfrozen caveman lawyer – your modern ways confuse me – but even I know that when the dude throws 100 on some level the scouting report is just like it says on Leslie Nielsen's tombstone: "Let 'Er Rip!" (true story – he put a fart joke on his tombstone)
BryanB
Is it just me or does Ariana Grandes eyes suggest demon possession
David
That was nearly Austin Wells trying for 3rd level of dumb
bosoxforlife
Quick poll. Does Miz come out for the 6th?
BryanBedited
No
chasfh
If the Brewers score a couple or more, for sure.
lzfreak
Probably not. Think he was emptying the tank in the 5th
NATS Fan
yes
docgooden85
TOOTBLAN alert?
chasfh
Throw so perfect too
Jeremy Fox
Given the way Cash has managed the playoffs to this point, I'm surprised Matz is up.
BryanB
I’ll take a veteran pitcher in the post
BryanB
Wow REALLY stupid decision against Mesa
NATS Fan
Victor Victor Mesa Mesa Jr
docgooden85
Catch-22 is my favorite book, and Major Major is one of the better characters (actually Major Major Major since that's also his rank)
lzfreak
Why not hold up after the stumble
reyrh
I wonder if he thought it'd be harder to turn back once he started stumbling
ra1nyd9ys
OOF
fishnchips
At least it was the second out at third
docgooden85
another out at 3rd, wow
raregokus
My favorite play in baseball, that was incredible
chasfh
Holy redemption, Batman!
Jeremy Fox
Stat from Canadian tv: in the expansion era, name the 5 starting pitcher seasons with the lowest BA against 3rd time through the order. List includes Miz this year, Pedro 1999, Ryan 1974, a Blake Snell season, and…another guy.
brewersbibliophile
Arrieta 2015?
Jeremy Fox
Clay Bucholz in 2013
Alan Sherman
dueling TOOTBLANs
Alan Sherman
good band name?
fishnchips
Drum and bass underground house duo
Anonymous Member #46
That's such an impressive relay by Williamson, who wasn't a second baseman until this season. That's not a natural throw for him.
BryanB
Don’t run against Contreras. Don’t run against Mesa.
Alan Sherman
If it's from Sportsnet, I'm gonna say Kevin Gausman or Cy Young Robbie Ray
Jeremy Fox
Buchholz in 2013!
BryanB
That may go down as the worst decision of the game.
Alan Sherman
Or maybe Halladay?
Alan Sherman
wow Clay Bucholz is a Remember Some Guys pull
NATS Fan
.8912 BLEPH! on that play
Alan Sherman
I love how single season baseball stats capture random dudes playing out of their mind for a season
docgooden85
where are you guys getting these team tags from?
ra1nyd9ys
good to settings then flairs
ra1nyd9ys
go**
bosoxforlife
This is the only game in 2026 that Miz didn't K at least 5 in a start of 5 innings or more.
Jeremy Fox
Chat settings button in the upper-right
docgooden85
Thanks! Do they have Black Sabbath or is it just MLB teams?
Jeremy Fox
Nick Martinez 5 Ks, Miz 3 Ks. Can't predict baseball.
Phil
Clay Buchholz is one of those guys for whom FIP-based WAR was created. In bWAR he looks like he's just great or terrible at random. In fWAR he's just a good-not-great pitcher with a fast decline.
Alan Sherman
they fired the BLEPH guy, let's get a better nonce acronym
Alan Sherman
top right of chat window, gear picture, chat settings
docgooden85
i bet nobody else has this combo
Phil
Sorry about the self-loathing; that must be unpleasant.
moomin
eugh
docgooden85
fwiw it's definitely in that order
Jeremy Fox
Contreras is awesome at challenges.
Alan Sherman
Contreras is awesome at baseball
Alan Sherman
i'll tell you my flair story if you tell me yours
drplantwrench
fangraphs member survey on the stories behind their flair
Alan Sherman
lockout article alert
Doug Lampert
Mine is boring, no teams close enough to home to count as hometeams while I was growing up, but my father was from Boston and we went up there a couple of times a year and occassionally caught a game at Fenway.
Phil
A lot of us single-team people will be boring. I grew up in New England, left for a job, miss it.
bosoxforlife
I was a multi-team fan until the Giants left NY. It has been more fun dedicated to one club.
Alan Sherman
who was more impressive to see live, mays or mantle or teddy ballgame?
BryanB
Contreras MVP
lzfreak
Tough looking double play there for TB
Phil
This is the throw-'em-out game, I guess.
NATS Fan
So many great arms tonight!
bosoxforlife
Contreras is awesome at baseball!
Alan Sherman
DO NOT RUN ON CONTRERAS
drplantwrench
perhaps simpson is not the best 3rd hitter
Alan Sherman
They don't have him batting there because he's the 3rd best hitter
docgooden85
I lived in all 3 places (and never once considered liking the Yankees)
Doug Lampertedited
My parents were in NYC in 1962, my mother had the Mets as her favorite team till the day she died because she was still rooting for the underdog from that year. She also claimed Mets games were better entertainment than other teams, because you never knew what would happen on a "routine" popup.
chasfh
Man, all kinds of runners getting cut down
lzfreak
I assume that one was a hit and run which isn't a bad call with Simpson's contact rate. Just looks horrible when it fails
Alan Shermanedited
BryanB is the Rays closer, he has changed sides and is now operating as a sleeper agent
docgooden85
It would be amazing if he was posting on his phone from the bullpen
BryanB
It’s an XK Red 27 technique
Solitaire
Dumb question: does the catcher get the WPA for a caught stealing? Do they get the negative WPA for a successful steal?
Sean Dolinar
There’s no defense in WPA just pitchers.
Alan Sherman
bosox for life with the age related flex
Anonymous Member #46
Really think Laurila should interview him in the offseason.
Alan Sherman
lockout article klaxon strikes again
lzfreak
Is it common for shortstops to wear the pitch com?
raregokus
Apparently all infielders wear them? Or at least some. There was a whole kerfuffle earlier this year when players on first could hear the pitch call on Nate Lowe's pitchcom because the volume was up too loud
Alan Sherman
I think several infielders do- I saw Freddie freeman holding his hand over his hat/ear in an earlier series
NATS Fan
I am fairly certain if you let pitch com reach the SS then the other team is listening.
bosoxforlife
Mays was the best because he was great at all phases of the game. Williams was in a class by himself as a hitter.
chasfh
If Willie Mays had a Statcast card, it would be blood red from top to bottom.
BryanB
It’s gonna end in a walk off?!?! Call Bowie!!!
Michael Baumann
I believe the broadcast missed an adorable side hug between Contreras and Aranda during that PitchCom malfunction. If I'd gotten a hug like that from a girl I liked I'd be walking on air for the rest of 9th grade
Michael Baumann
Just because we're throwing each other out doesn't mean we can't be friends
chasfh
11th grade for me.
docgooden85
Willy C has the largest eye black tape I have seen
BryanB
I love it
raregokus
He and Yandy need to have an eyeblack-off
BryanB
They should have a live face painting station before the game
drplantwrench
cant wait for bauers to have a unicorn on the left side of his cheek
Alan Sherman
LOLLLLLL
BryanB
I swear those pitch cons are made out of balsa wood and spit
docgooden85
Imagine Matz not throwing strikes, at his age
Alan Sherman
I think Harper also paints his whole face?
raregokus
Harper is at some point going to force us to have a serious conversation about when "a ton of eye black" turns into "doing blackface on the field"
Alan Sherman
No, spit was banned back when bosoxforlife was a kid
docgooden85
Try telling that to Don Sutton and Jerry Reuss
bosoxforlife
Lew Burdette's nickname was "Lubricated Lew".
BryanB
I think they should have a live face painting session before the game
raregokus
Miz in full tiger face paint firing 103 would be peak
BryanB
🦄
Alan Sherman
Baumann, during the lockout can we start a fantasy league of your 300 metros setup?
Michael Baumann
I don't know what this means
raregokus
I think this is referring to your mega expansion idea
Alan Sherman
Pan-American Municipal Baseball League, 150 franchises? sorry i misremembered the number
Michael Baumann
Ohhhhh yeah definitely. I'm not sure I want to administrate such a thing, but if someone else wants to hack OOTP and make it work that could be fun
Michael Baumann
Meg and Appelman keep me locked in a windowless room unless I come up with three insane ideas a week, I have trouble remembering them all
BryanB
RISP
fishnchips
Uribe – Hall – Ashby – Megill as needed to close it out
bosoxforlife
I think you can skip Hall.
BryanB
I’m telling you, next season pitchers will pitch one pitch each
lzfreak
Caminero has great vibes in all circumstances from what I've seen
Solitaire
I will always root for a guy in sport specs
raregokus
Richie Palacios vs. Ashby would be a real Sophie's choice for you
Solitaire
I'm sorry, but Palacios' glasses are too neon. Too neon by far.
Jonathan
Rec specs!
BryanB
Where’s Karim Abdul Jabar when we need him
lzfreak
I love Ashby but there's no way the "two innings every game" bit works for him again this series, right?
BryanB
I consistently underestimate him
lzfreak
The forehead sweat zoom in was pretty extra there by Fox
NATS Fan
I'm growing to loath Polimarket advertising
lzfreak
I actually like the Craig Robinson one but I just find him funny
NATS Fan
He sold out!
BryanB
Beginning to be a fan of the stay-in-radius OF proposal
lzfreak
Is it harder for a lefty to bunt off a lefty or does it not matter?
BryanB
MLB: if you want to turn away fans, keep advertising betting apps
fishnchips
Wonder where these gambling companies are getting all this money to buy adv—ohhhhhhh I get it
NATS Fan
I guess T Mobile wants fans to be mad at them every time a fan disagrees with ABS.
Alan Sherman
I do so love it when a team is punished for a leadoff walk (unless it's my team of course)
chasfh
Yet another run due to sketchy glove work.
Eddy
One day they’ll stop throwing a first pitch strike to Chourio
BryanB
Fox reduced all glove sizes by 20%
NATS Fan
this seems plausible to me
NATS Fan
Lachlan Murdoch: Baseball is boring. In cricket, men do not wear gloves. Can we get rid of the gloves?
lzfreak
I have no idea if that's fair
Alan Sherman
the wicketkeeper (catcher equivalent) in cricket does wear gloves!
Doug Lampert
Cricket does everything it can to make defense difficult. Of course, the fact that you can bounce the ball on the way to the wicket and that they don't replace a scruffed ball also make offense difficult, but a cricket bat is a much better shape to hit a round ball with.
bosoxforlife
They don't just not replace a scuffed ball, a single ball is used for hours at a time.
Alan Sherman
Yes, when you hit it over the fence they pause the game to get the ball back
Alan Sherman
also, south africa just beat australia in long form cricket and their captain batted for 9 hours of game time
Alan Sherman
(beating australia is generally difficult)
NATS Fan
I don't know it like baseball, but I have enjoyed the Cricket I have watched.
Alan Sherman
and you have to bowl the ball in a way that looks deeply unnatural to me as a baseball player. I was once playing catch in the Caribbean and some kids wanted to play with us. I wondered why their form was so weird and then I realized that they were "bowling" my baseball
Solitaire
In Australia, some pals tried to teach me to bowl. Felt like I was going to separate my shoulder
AdvantageSchneider
There is a chance the rest of the country finds this a very boring game and I don’t care
Alan Shermanedited
I will take multiple guys getting thrown out on the bases any time
BryanB
Great pitching there
Anonymous Member #46
A 93-mile changeup that does *that* is unfair.
bosoxforlife
The bowler cannot bend his arm at the elbow in the delivery.
Alan Sherman
with modern biomechanics they have realized that some bend in the elbow is inevitable, but it is indeed very limited
Alan Sherman
also, no foul territory!
BryanB
ADS! ADS! ADS! More ads! Always ads!!
BryanB
That pitch brought to you by Kalshi!
Alan Sherman
Emmanuel Clase, come get your 1 pitch payment
bosoxforlife
A single cricket match at the highest level lasts five days.
Alan Sherman
hence the 9 hours of batting by 1 guy!
NATS Fan
Novig has better Ads than polymarket.
Alan Sherman
Rays Raysing Vilade to second base
Eddyedited
Brewers mission comes down to “can we get the first four hitters out?” If so, it’s a wrap.
Last five in tonight’s lineup hitting .161 AVG, .429 OPS in playoffs. Really really rough.
BryanB
Ahh Reacher. Such a good show.
bosoxforlife
Uecker was just given a shout out. It is a shame he couldn't have been around for this moment.
NATS Fan
Just a bit outside
danorris101
Uecker, Yogi and… who are the other two on the Mt. Rushmore of humorous ball players?
Phil
Bouton
Solitaire
Fidrych?
Solitaire
Wasn't around long enough for a Rushmore spot, but everything Munenori Kawasaki ever did or said was comedy gold
lzfreak
I watch the "monkey never cramp" clip about once a year
Alan Sherman
Kawasaki still playing in lower-level Japanese ball, true baseball man
lzfreak
What role do we think Woodruff has in this series? Is he gonna get a start? Low leverage guy? High leverage bulk?
NATS Fan
bulk reliever
AdvantageSchneider
He hasn’t pitched since July. He ms max 40 pitches. Not a bulk reliever.
danorris101
Contreras is allowed to go into the dugout during a commercial break? I don't think I ever realized players could do that
NATS Fan
how do you think they pee?
bosoxforlife
I predict a bunt attempt.
Brian Reinhart
Well, uh, that was bad
BryanB
DOH
Alan Sherman
Bad bunt! bad!
danorris101
Prediction was good. Attempt was bad.
Crapshoot
This is such fun baseball – I'm sure there will be some ratings grumbling, but doing my part and I hope the baseball remains awesome
Brian Reinhart
Pat Murphy tomorrow: we had him do a bunt pop-up so they would give him a pitch to hit out
bosoxforlife
That didn't look like the technique of somebody who had ever bunted in his life.
Anonymous Member #46
Cleavinger ain't got it tonight
BryanB
RISPd AGAIN.
bosoxforlife
Lentz is going to have the plate tomorrow. i hope he gets his eyes checked before then.
lzfreak
I forgot about Gary Sanchez
AdvantageSchneider
Ask the padres about that.
BryanB
And the Brewers are going to counter by calling the Dodgers and bringing in Freddy Freeman.
danorris101
What a pick
bosoxforlife
Caminero flashing the leather!
brewersbibliophile
This might be the first time all season Sanchez didn’t use at least one challenge
BryanB
It’d be nice if they could have fewer commercial breaks.
NATS Fan
I was unaware of Polymarket personally
lzfreak
Sometimes when the game goes into a ton of extra innings they run out of commercials and keep it at the field between innings
viceroy
Furiously searching fangraphs to fact check the announcer's claim that Trevor Megill was a starter with the New York Mets
viceroy
The answer is no. Tylor is not Trevor
moomin
ah, they're mixing up their T Megills…
danorris101
Classic Megill mix-up
NATS Fan
you have high expectations from X ballplayers
jdbolick
I miss Joey Ortiz. Such a good defender and I still believe in his bat
lzfreak
Oh man this would be an incredible moment for the first Simpson homer
lzfreak
The Homer Simpson if you will
moomin
anyone giving up a homer to him would definitely think "D'OH!"
AdvantageSchneider
What is the over under for Ray’s garbage time outs?
Crapshoot
Uhoh
danorris101
Well this got interesting
BryanB
Shoulda caught that dude
chasfh
Man, this game is living up to the hype.
danorris101
Anybody know if there is a Junior Caminero Jr?
moomin
(haha imagine if Caminero pulls an Alonso here)
bosoxforlife
Moments like this are what separates baseball from the rest.
Crapshootedited
WHAT A BALLSY MOVE – double steal with your best hitter up there??
Crapshoot
Oh man, I get not throwing Junior a pitch there, but on 3-2 to throw it in the dirt…..
BryanB
Not impressed with this pitcher at all
brewersbibliophile
This ain’t good
chasfh
Oh my gosh, is Megill crumbling?
BryanB
Giving away the game
Matt Martell
I've been following silently as I wrote the mailbag, but hi everyone!
lzfreak
That's not the worst walk
Crapshoot
And damn!
Matt Martell
And also, he didn't check his swing
BryanB
Totally agree
bosoxforlife
Please identify what a checked swing is.
Patrick Burke
This is great baseball!
chasfh
And just like that a classic ending. And we get another one tomorrow!
BryanB
THERE WE GO!!!
drplantwrench
its the worst walk given that he already struck out
Matt Martell
what a finish!
Phil
Well, this is a big challenge.
brewersbibliophile
My god
drplantwrench
HOLY GUACAMOLE
danorris101
Not over!
fishnchips
Wow! What a brewers way to win
Patrick Burke
Liam Hicks has been disappointing this playoffs, I had him as an X Factor to lengthen that lineup
lzfreak
I'm not sure he's out at second
brewersbibliophile
Oh no
Matt Martell
I think he's off the bag
Crapshoot
FWIW, this is where replay kills it – the game is over and if they bring it back now (even if it's close)
brewersbibliophile
Imagine Megill having to get back to the mentality to get the last out
BryanB
Yah that first throw sucks
fishnchips
Woahhh
AdvantageSchneider
Then review the check swing you fickers.
Bobo Polaroids
If this was an AFL game they could! (But with the AFL check swing rules it would still be a no-swing).
bosoxforlife
He is off the bag. This will eb overturned.
viceroy
Business idea: telescoping cleats that maintain contact with the base
BryanB
Yah all Turangs fault
chasfh
Holy Toledo, is this not the most monumental replay challenge in replay challenge history?
Phil
Ask me after the next batter.
Phil
Remember when there wasn't replay?
fishnchips
Wowowowow
drplantwrench
did we make a mistake by allowing reviews
brewersbibliophile
Yes (unless they help my team)
danorris101
Did they set off fireworks?
lzfreak
Is Andy Fletcher a guy who has ever been on tv before?
Solitaire
My exact comment to wife
chasfh
Wow this game man
lzfreak
Steal home?
Phil
Contreras can't throw him out at least.
Brian Reinhart
that's a perfect job for Joe West
bosoxforlife
The celebration smoke will blind DeLuca.
Phil
Well, that's not reviewable.
millvillemeltdown
i have been looking for a very poopy cat to give him dewormer and i forgot that there was a baseball game. i am not a real sicko, forgive me
Solitaire
Do they have more fireworks available?
Crapshoot
Baseball remains awesome.
chasfh
And we get to do this again tomorrow!
BryanB
Holy cow what a game
NATS Fan
Good drama there
Sean Dolinar
Delaying the inevitable.
Solitaire
Most entertaining 3-2 game I've seen in a while
fishnchips
Brewers playoff ball is entertainment at its finest
millvillemeltdown
this is a good world series between good and entertaining teams, if it doesn't beat 2023 i'll be upset
drplantwrench
thank god the angels arent in the world series cuz i would have to go to the ER if this happened to them
brewersbibliophile
Incredible opening act to this series. I really hope it goes 7 (because I have tickets 😅)
Sean Dolinar
Have a blast at the games you get to go to!
brewersbibliophile
Thanks!
bosoxforlife
In 1967 I had tickets to game 6 and had to sweat out game 5 because the Red Sox were down 3-1.
Phil
This is looking like a good series.
Tom Rhoads
Yeah that was pretty fun. I hope the rest of this series can be at least that good.
Phil
Sean, as always, thanks for having us over!
Sean Dolinar
Hopefully we have 6 more!
Anonymous Member #46
Ken Rosenthal doesn't come up to Jacob Misiorowski's shoulder.
drplantwrench
one bad thing when the WS being over is no more fun chats 🙁
brewersbibliophile
I’ll miss these
Brian Reinhart
"members-only Dominican League chats"
millvillemeltdown
hot stove fg chats: nothing happens for a very long time until passan himself drops ordnance on all our houses
brewersbibliophile
I’ll be at Puerto Rican league next month
millvillemeltdown
lidom could feed families
drplantwrench
we're essentially one step away from creating fangraphs discord
millvillemeltdown
i am traveling to aus but with the melbourne team leaving the abl i likely won't be able to catch any games
millvillemeltdown
what a crazy game though. pat murphy must be fuming (happy?)
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2026-27 free agent market.
In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor league contract, or won’t receive a contract at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Statistics are prorated to full season values where noted. Unless otherwise indicated, the projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2027 Steamer600 projections.
Below are ballots for 11 of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of infielders, including one with a big opt-out decision looming. Read the rest of this entry »
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2026-27 free agent market.
In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor league contract, or won’t receive a contract at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Statistics are prorated to full season values where noted. Unless otherwise indicated, the projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2027 Steamer600 projections.
Below are ballots for 11 of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of pitchers, including the winter’s top free agent. Read the rest of this entry »
If you’ve watched a postseason game in the last decade, you’ve heard the theory. Honestly, if you’ve watched a postseason game in the last decade, you’ve probably thought of the theory yourself. When a team eschews a regular starter and instead uses a string of relievers, surely one of those relievers is bound to be a little bit off. There are just so many of them. What, they’re all going to have it? C’mon, man. Be reasonable. And what happens as a result? Well, that reliever is going to give up a bunch of runs. You know, like pitchers do when they don’t have it. Obvious!
Hello, and welcome to another edition of Mathemadage. This time, we’re hot on the trail of what I like to call the Inevitable Reliever Blowup Theory. There isn’t one specific adage to point to here, but I’ve always wondered about this effect myself, and last week Other Ben (Lindbergh) forwarded me this tweet:
I hear this every bullpen game that the risk is law of averages says one of the relievers wont have it.
I have not seen any actual study anyone has done about this. Seems like it is just passed around as conventional wisdom.
That was a good enough excuse for me to dig in – like I said, I’ve had this on my mind for a while, and the playoffs are the perfect time for a deep dive. But before I started cracking open my spreadsheets and coding agents, I did a literature review, because I knew I couldn’t be the first person to have investigated this. Back in 2015, Henry Druschel found that starters had more “disaster” outings than relievers, though he didn’t delve into the stacking aspect of using multiple relievers in a single game. I also found former colleague Kevin Goldstein’s investigation into the subject, which focused on the Rays’ ability to avoid reliever blowups. But those didn’t settle the debate for me, so I pressed on. Read the rest of this entry »
For lack of a more G-rated way to put it, Guardians manager Stephen Vogt managed his ass off during the playoffs. Though let’s be clear up top, a lot of managing is not always a reflection of smart managing. The Guardians operated with their usual duct-taped-together lineup, but in an uncharacteristic break with their recent history, they had just two bona fide starters in Parker Messick and Gavin Williams. That gives us a boatload of managerial decisions to dissect across Vogt’s 11 postseason games, especially on the pitching side. So with the team having fallen just two wins short of reaching the World Series for the first time in a decade, I’m back to grade Vogt’s October performance.
As both Ben Clemens and I have mentioned before each of our previous manager report cards this postseason, I care about process and not results here. It’s easy to say, “That was a great move because it worked,” or “That was a bad move because it failed,” but managers obviously can’t know the results of their decisions as they’re making them. I’ve tried my best to transport myself back to the moment of each decision — taking into account the pitches, innings, and plate appearances that led up to it — while ignoring the outcome.
Lastly, before we get into the grades, I’ll also reiterate that while these are ostensibly manager report cards, there’s a much larger group of people behind the skipper that helps to inform his decisions. Before the game, that includes discussions with the front office, which provides the reams of data that every manager has at his disposal during play. During the game, he’s getting feedback from his coaching staff and players on their levels of health and readiness. It really does take a village to get through a baseball game, and realistically, the praise and scorn doesn’t belong to the manager alone. Read the rest of this entry »
Howdy from the kitchen table in Tempe where I'm being serenaded by a symphony of leaf blowers just over the back wall.
Eric Longenhagen
Sorry that this is my first chat in a couple of weeks, I've been dealing with some still-undiagnosed health stuff that seems to be abating. Pretty sure I'm okay. Had some illuminating experiences with our health care system though, and I'm pretty sure that's not. Anyway, I've still been at a ton of Fall League games and have a midway point post and Board update brewing, which might run as soon as later today but more likely Monday. For now, we chat.
Charles Bengal Tiger
How much upside does Luis Lara have as a hitter? What would be a reasonable projection for him a few years down the road?
Eric Longenhagen
He has as much upside as he can add strength without compromising the things he currently does really well. I think he's always going to be a sub-.400 SLG guy who plays awesome defense and makes a ton of contact. I think he has better long term upside than what Sal Frelick has been, but that what Frelick has been able to do is a lot like what Lara's skillset looks like right now.
Eric Longenhagen
All of that is to say: I feel comfortable with the 45 we put on Lara, but less comfortable with it than the 45 we put on Pratt. Both feel like solid role players rather than stars.
Solitaire
Request to pass on: add a filter to the minor league leaderboards for prospect status. I'd love to be able to quickly filter to the guys of note and/or see what sort of stats are reasonable for prospects rather than 29 YO journeymen
Thank you for doing these chats. Do you think the Mariners place Ace Reece in AA to start the year next year or just put him in Everett and fast track him if he has success. Also is his stock a little higher than it was after the draft and is he a potential top 100 prospect?
Eric Longenhagen
I would ordinarily tell you that they'd give him a good amount of big league reps during spring training and then decide whether to start him at High-A or Double-A based on how he looks, but I think a lack of MLB spring training means we should take the "under", so to speak, on these guys' assignments. Reese probably isn't an offseason top 100 guy, I'm not one to be moved by an SEC hitter going to the Cal League after the draft and crushing it there. He should, it would have been alarming had he not. Send him to Everett and he'll probably do more of the same. He can't really play defense so I wanna see him crush in Arkansas before buying it, personally.
nicklocarno
The fantasy community seems to have collectively gotten higher on Zion Rose in the months since the draft, and lower on Eric Booth Jr. Is this simple SSS overreaction, or are these informed by real scouting intel?
Eric Longenhagen
I can't speak for the fantasy "community" and I want readers to remember the way opinions spread online and how they can cloud what the array of opinions would be if everyone were sequestered before arriving at one. I can tell you that Zion looks damn good in the AFL, and that Brendan and I both agreed we should just 50 him this offseason. He's stock up. Booth is a hold. What your dynasty team needs (do you need a solid regular soon? Or do you need to take a shot on a potentially freaky stud who might also bust?) should dictate how you line them up on your FYPD board.
Anonymous Member #46
Congratulations on your promotion to Prospect Impresario!
Eric Longenhagen
This has been what Baumann has called me since the Crashburn Alley days, back in… 2012? Sheesh.
washedupscout
Hey Eric! This is John McNamara. We spoke last year when I interviewed with FanGraphs for the full-time prospect writer role. I was a scout with the San Diego Padres for eight years, and I really enjoyed our conversation about baseball and scouting. I recently wrapped up my time with the Padres and am looking for my next opportunity in baseball. I’d love to get your thoughts on where my scouting background might translate or if there’s anyone you think I should connect with. I’d really appreciate any advice or guidance. Thanks
Eric Longenhagen
Hey John, I remember. You were a good candidate and interview. I worry that scouting isn't exactly a growth industry, especially on the pro side. It's more stable on the amateur side because of how much more valuable and actionable "dope" is, and the fact that teams are guaranteed to acquire players via that market, whereas pro impact is more situational. So I'd try to stay on the amateur side. I also think it might be fruitful for more scouts to transition into college baseball as recruiters/GMs. Depending on how things turn out with the pending legislation around college sports, and where things settle post-lockout/CBA with regard to draft processes, it might suddenly make more sense for colleges to have more scouting and recruiting personnel than they already do. Find out what scouts have left pro ball for a job at a college and see if you can reach out to them for counsel. It might be cool to be the transfer portal scout for Miami, or something like that.
Solitaire
You see a batter change levels and suddenly his swing, contact, groundball, and pull percentages all take big jumps. But it's only 20 games. Guy got a new coach who taught/convinced him of a new swing/approach or just a flukey 20 games? 20 games is very small sample for results, but seems decent for approach. Eye-test needed to see if anything is actually different?
Eric Longenhagen
You can pretty easily marry the data change flag with a look at the wing on video to get a better feel for whether or not there has actually been a change. If you have a way of flagging changes in the data over a short (but statistically significant) window of time and then running down the flagged targets with your eye balls, that's ideal.
Charles Bengal Tiger
Does Kendry Rojas of MIN still project as a starting pitcher?
Eric Longenhagen
Yeah, I think as long as he has options he'll be rolled out as a starter enough to keep his innings count within a reasonable distance of full-time starting once his option years run out. The guys who tend to stick as starters are the ones whose bodies and deliveries look like Kendry's.
war2d2
Eric! The Cubs are running back their MLB pitching infrastructure, which got me thinking about their inability to build any kind of a minor league pitching pipeline for what is now almost 20 years of the Theo/Jed regime. Is it just bad drafting, bad development, or some kind of institutional blind spot that’s led to this? I’d have a hard time coming up with more than five pitchers in the last 20 years that they drafted, developed, and got value out of. In fact, Cease would probably be on that list and they traded him from A ball.
Eric Longenhagen
I think they've had some success but it hasn't been sustained success. Steele popped and then got hurt and looked like a shell of himself during rehab in AZ. I can say that their style of development tends to include velo spikes and pitch additions. Everyone suddenly has a cutter and a sweeper when before they had just one breaker, and they might throw a few ticks harder. But they haven't tended to develop or improve command. The Naz Mule's of the world don't need two more pitches, they need control. So maybe there hasn't been cohesion with what the draft has fed the dev group. Some teams, like the Brewers' pitchers, show similar trends where they all of a sudden have five pitches. And others, like the Rays, basically have guys throw 2 pitches the whole time they're in the minors and don't really care to flesh out repertoires as much.
szakyl
After AFL, how much confidence do you have that 2025 is behind him, and Welbyn Francisca is a legit prospect again?
Eric Longenhagen
He's back from the dead, imo.
Anonymous Member #46
How much are we knocking off your future value due to the health concerns?
Eric Longenhagen
You should ding my "party/hang" tool grade because I can't drink until I'm done with this run of medication. It was already a 40, unplayable now.
Brian Reinhart
Hope you continue recovering from your case of the bleph
ljax1979
The Royals have to trade Blake Mitchell this winter, right?
Eric Longenhagen
I think catching depth is important enough that, unless they think he's totally bunk from all the K's, they should probably hold onto him. If you think it's enough K's to make him a binary "no" as a hitter, than sure you can sell high on him coming off a 30 homer season.
Eric Longenhagen
This chat interface is so rad.
wallyworld2199
How is Briggs McKenzie looking coming off injury? Young, but seemed like he had some good stuff early on and the Braves are one of the better orgs developing pitchers
Eric Longenhagen
I saw his first start and haven't run into him since (I went to see the Fielder/Holmes movie last night) but he looked like Diet Bumgarner to me in the first game. Graceful, repeatable, deceptive, feel, good breaker quality. Starter all the way, mid rotation upside. Think we'll leave the 45+ on him, though, and make him a Pick to Click rather than hondo him right now.
Alex Remington
Looking at these two teams, there are a lot of really productive guys on both rosters who probably would not have been stars had they been developed in other organizations. Logan Henderson's a good example! Obviously, when you're doing a Board-type prospect ranking, it's hard to take org into account because guys can get traded and it's impossible to control for that, but – how much of the variance in a prospect's outcome can be traced directly to what organization they're in? And, as an analyst, what do you do with that?
Eric Longenhagen
This is the classic "predicting vs scouting" question. We have to assess the player in a vacuum, but you should feel free to put your thumb on the scale of predicting the outcome based on what orgs you think/know are better at developing players, or putting them in position to succeed. Like Andrew Vaughn changed orgs after he graduated, there's nothing we can do about retconning our grade, things just happen and it plays out and you hope you're directionally correct on the player.
baseballfan115
When evaluating future outfield defense, how do you determine whether a player who is transitioning to the OF has the capacity to judge the flyballs/get efficient and quick jumps?
Eric Longenhagen
Just watch the initial transition and see how natural it is for the player to do the things he needs to do at the OF position. Then give it time to breathe and check in a few months later on whether there's been progress. Some guys take to it right away, others need time/reps, and some will never get comfortable doing it.
clubberlang
Thanks for chatting! Angeibel Gomez has been raking lately in AFL. Does that change your opinion of his upside?
Eric Longenhagen
I think the very aggressive 50 we have on him is still appropriate. Real power and feel to hit, probably a corner OF in the end. To go from "new signee" to "guy we feel pretty strongly is a future everyday player" is really impressive. I don't think he's Acuna or anything like that.
Phil
Eric, it looks like the banner link is missing part of the url for this chat–the one in the blogroll works. Thought you'd want to know!
Eric Longenhagen
Thanks, idk why, we've asked Sean and I'm sure I just goofed something when I built the post because it's my first time chatting solo with this interface.
smoothio
Did Salas’ debut move the needle for you? I wonder if he has enough bat to be a superstar catcher like you’d expect from one getting started as a 20 year old.
Eric Longenhagen
Yeah, I think he's a top 5 prospect and will be a consistent 3 WAR catcher.
rossredcay
Not a prospect, but is Victor Mesa Jr. a possible major breakout next year in an everyday role? No real platoon split that would seem to indicate he needs to sit against lefties.
Eric Longenhagen
Seems possible, yes. Swing changed, more power without sacrificing a ton of contact. Contact was actually better in '26 than before, even with the more aggressive swing. Obviously has profile-altering arm strength and defensive profile. Could be 40 hit with 45 or 50 power and big time defense. That's at least a good platoon guy (45) if not an everyday player. We had him graded as an extra outfielder, basically a pure defensive replacement.
rossredcay
I know your opinion or way of thinking of these low contact sluggers (e.g. Murakami) has changed somewhat. I assume Griffin Conine is a guy who would fit into that bucket of bats. I've been waiting for the bottom to fall out give his awful contact rate, but is this a guy who could have a more sustainable role going forward given this shift in the game?
Eric Longenhagen
Yeah, the number of sub-70% contact guys keeps climbing and it's at the point where I need to reassess my baselines for viability, or at least try to separate the guys who aren't gonna hit enough to matter from the ones who will somehow. There are still guys with 65% contact who just aren't going to hit, it isn't like all of a sudden those guys are good to go.
Eric Longenhagen
But why Murakami (who sucked down the stretch btw, he might be due for a regression and all of this will be moot) and not Jack Cust, or whoever.
jkrangel1524
By your rankings Eyanson, Zazueta, Flora and Susana are are close to each other. Do you have a personal preference/order to these arms that differs from the rankings and if so, why?
Eric Longenhagen
Nah, they're *my* rankings. Susana it's 99-102 with bad shape, bad strikes, and an elite slider. He's probably a reliever but one of the ten best relievers in baseball. Zazueta it's velo, ride, command, changeup, but no good breaking ball. Mid-rotation guy with a flaw that prevents him from being a no. 2 or better. Flora could be the most complete guy of that group if he can stay healthy and throw strikes across 140+ innings, Eyanson is a little closer to having done that with 100 IP in pro ball this year.
tdmoc
Any chance Patrick Reilly can still start even with the lost time? Slider is playing much nicer than pre-TJS
Eric Longenhagen
Yes, I think the more vertical breaker will play against lefties and there are enough strikes. He's probably a five-and-dive type, though.
Bud Smith
Following up on a few weeks ago – any insight into why Aiva Arquette went on the IL for the last two days of the season?
Eric Longenhagen
Arquette had three IL stints this year. In order: Sports hernia (which is what I thought I had two weeks ago), thumb sprain, then oblique.
rossredcay
What would you say is the % chance Brody Hopkins just sticks in the pen from here on out? I'm assuming he gets another shot in the rotation next year at least, but is that for sure?
Eric Longenhagen
I'd say like 90% bullpen now that he's on the 40. Conversion arms tend to be in the bullpen.
Charles Bengal Tiger
In my (very deep) dynasty league I have a chance to draft Jared Grindlinger if I drop Xavier Neyens. Advisable, or would this be negligible gain?
Eric Longenhagen
I want Grindlinger
tdmoc
(also fyi the banner link leads to a 404 page)
Eric Longenhagen
This has been fixed
tjralstin13
Now with 3 injury marred or inconsistent seasons under his belt, do you have any confidence in Evan Carter or Wyatt Langford reaching their full potential? They have both showed flashes, but Wyatt's decisions at the plate, defensive miscues and health have been infuriating. Carter also can't seem to choose an approach that gives him sustained offensive success similar to the lightning in bottle run he had in 2023. Do you have any recommendations for either of them or the Rangers moving forward that you've observed? Thanks again!
Eric Longenhagen
I'm still on Longford, Carter I think is just okay.
Anonymous Member #46
more like Eric Lags-at-hangin' amirite
Eric Longenhagen
I'm only good at cooking and writing anymore.
millvillemeltdown
athletics and sports all select for outlier/"freakish" traits; are there things that you have seen in baseball that you did not think were humanly possible? did any "freaks" end up really panning out from your perspective?
Eric Longenhagen
I've seen deGrom in person three times and was blown away all three times. Acuna's balls in play made retirees at AFL games moan in kind of a scared way. Teenage Tatis BPs were crazy. Watching Gerrit Cole's Fall League debut was crazy. Stephen Strasburg Harrisburg home debut with so many fans taht they ran out of food, had a brown out and a rain delay, and hearing his breaking ball spinning through the humidity throughout the whole ballpark was crazy.
Eric Longenhagen
Even Ray Kerr. Like, Kerr is "just" a middle reliever but he's here in part because he's pretty freaky.
Eric Longenhagen
Whenever anyone does high-end stuff of any kind, I wanna hopefully be sensitive to that and bet that will play in the big leagues. It doesn't have to be guys who run fast or jump high or who are built like underwear models. It can be Alejandro Kirk framing pitches like he does.
Solitaire
Anyone floating around the minors with speed who could try to completely sell out power for bat control and make it like Chandler Simpson? Or do you need truly 80-grade speed to make that profile work, no 60s or 70s need apply
Eric Longenhagen
I think you need at least a 70.
David Wiers
What's your fav defunct baseball site? BrooksBaseball or StatCorner.
Eric Longenhagen
Brooks was big for me in college.
matt
I emailed FG support without a reply a few weeks ago but can you possibly let them know to add contact% as possible category to add on milb custom reports. They have swinging strike% but knowing whiff/contact% is different. Thank you
Eric Longenhagen
Contact rate doesn't come from the game logs liek the other data, that's Statcast/Hawkeye/Trackman stuff that I source from team people. I'll approach Sean and Co. about integrating it into the board somehow, but it'd be an end of year data point rather than something that could update in real time.
wallyworld2199
More importantly….how was the Nathan Fielder doc on a 20-80 scale?
Eric Longenhagen
Still digesting it, in the 65/70 area for me. OJ Made in America is the 80.
InsertWittyNameHere
Two-parter: what's the best quote you've ever gotten from a prospect, and what's the dumbest thing you ever heard someone say? I feel like during the lockout we should get more human interest reporting about what it's like to be a pro/amateur ball player.
Eric Longenhagen
Not a ton of prospect quotes from me, I talk to some kids at the Combine every year and have some questions for kids on occasion, but those questions are almost always to glean information about how they're being developed rather than the player himself. Jake Burger is really funny, JJ Wetherholt impressed all of us at the combine a few years ago, JA Happ was nice to be around when I was a kid at Lehigh Valley back in '08.
nicklocarno
curious if you have thoughts about the hypothetical landscape of college baseball, supposing HS players were excluded from draft eligibility in the next CBA… in particular, would it make home games in a Big10 city more relevant on the level of getting to see some capital-D Dudes before the draft?
Eric Longenhagen
Yeah, it's roughly 50 players who I ranked, and probably another 15 or so who I didn't, who get signed out of high school now but wouldn't if HS players are no longer draft eligible. In the bucket of the college player population it isn't a ton of bodies. But it is a lot of the most talented kids. All it takes is one Rocker/Leiter duo to make some noise and grab people's attention, and it would ensure those guys do some version of that, even if it's just for a year or two like in the NBA. But the things that make college baseball tough to watch (all the walks, lack of pitching depth, midweek games that go 4 hours because of all the runs, a bloated run environment because the bats are like golf clubs) would remain.
Joshua
No question but a feature request: ability to sort Team Stats on the Minor League side like the MLB stats leaderboards. Thanks for the great work!
Eric Longenhagen
Oh yeah, that's interesting. I wonder if there might be barriers to coding that retrospectively because affiliates change?
baseballfan115
Speed development. I remember Julio Rodriguez was projected early to fall to a corner. What stopped him from doing that? Did he gain speed? Not lose as much as predicted?
Eric Longenhagen
There's a Divish article about Julio completely changing his eating and workout habits you should dig up.
Healthy, mobile, fast. Ends up playing next to Walcott a bunch, so also looks more human.
David Wiers
Among other reasons why purely scouting a stat line is sub-optimal, what percentage of MiLB hits would more usually be outs in the show? Like 10% between fielding, positioning, and "hits" that actually errors?
Eric Longenhagen
Man, that's a tough question. It's super relevant. Can we just assess BABIPs and have an okay enough notion?
Honkus Wagner
asked brendan this and curious for your answer as well. Caceras, Gomez, Renteria, Frias. if you were starting a team which one are you taking?
Eric Longenhagen
Frias, Gomez, Caceres, Renteria.
Bacterun
When it comes to a player like Bryce Rainer (high strikeout, big power, lots of walks in minors with surprisingly good average for K%) what kind of attributes do you look at to shade up or down on developing better contact? Is it more of a physical thing? More of an approach thing? Odds Rainer can rein in his strikeouts to become an All-star or better MLBer? (pun very much intended)
Eric Longenhagen
Lever/swing length (which is kind of a double-edged sword because it's easy to say the longer guys will shorten up as they get stronger {Walcott has} but sometimes they just can't) and feel for altering their hands to help them make contact. Like the way Judge tucks his hands in to shorten up against stuff near his torso. That's how you avoid being too long to make contact in there. Rainer isn't doing that right now, it's realy really long.
Andrew
Thoughts on Villanova breaking up the Big 5?
Eric Longenhagen
Selfish, cynical, douche behavior.
Alex Remington
In connection with my earlier question (predicting vs scouting), what *do* the various teams do well? I think as fans we can sometimes overblow this stuff. Like Cleveland and Atlanta really do seem to be able to churn out pitching, and Tampa and Milwaukee always seem to be more than the sum of their parts offensively, and Toronto *typically* seems like they can get their guys to hit – until this year. Et cetera! Who are the orgs who you'd identify as having genuinely repeatable strengths?
Eric Longenhagen
Some of it is acquisition related, some of it is player dev, and some of it is deployment. Yes, Cleveland makes pitchers better. They draft strike-throwers and turn them into harder-throwing guys without killing their command. Milwaukee seems to know what kind of bat these guys should be using. Bauers, Turang… they've all changed their gear in meaningful ways. I think bat design/weight/shape cab be tailored for each individual's swing and Milwaukee has done that. Their international department also finds dudes via a "go-wide" strategy, which they also emply in the draft by taking all these HS guys spread across lower seven figure and mid sic figure bonuses. WHen you have great dev, it makes sense to want more bites at the apple and they have that locked in. Tampa deploys guys in the ways they're best suited to succeed. When you have Manny Margot and Corey Dickerson and their skillsets compliment one another, you can put both in the best position to succeed on a rate stat basis. You're turning 45s in a vacuum into 55s on a rate basis, and then creating trade value as if the players are 50s and 55s, dealing those guys when they become expensive and snowballing similar prospects to ensure you always have enough guys around to do this…
Eric Longenhagen
Kiley and I wrote a whole chapter in Future Value about this. Obviously that was seven years ago and things are different. We try to do a version of this every year in the System Overviews of the prospect lists to give you an idea of what we think teams are good at.
Eric Longenhagen
Okay friends, 90 minute chat today feels like a good re-entry after two weeks off. Thanks for coming, enjoy the world series.
Sebastian Walcott arguably possesses the highest ceiling among players currently competing in the Arizona Fall League. Not only is the 20-year-old shortstop ranked 11th on The Board with a 55 FV, Eric Longenhagen opined in his AFL preview that Walcott “might be the best prospect in baseball.” Brendan Gawlowski has likewise been bullish. When ranking the youngster atop our Texas Rangers list back in April, Brendan wrote that “Walcott has been one of the toolsiest and most projectable players in the game from practically the moment he signed as part of the 2023 international class.”
An elbow injury delayed his start to the season. The Nassau, Bahamas native underwent internal brace surgery in February and subsequently didn’t return to game action until mid-July. Understandably erring on the side of caution, the Rangers limited Walcott almost exclusively to DH duty (although he is back on the dirt in the desert — and reportedly also working out in the outfield — with the Surprise Saguaros.)
The layoff didn’t prove burdensome to his bat. Getting the lion’s share of his 187 regular-season plate appearances with Double-A Frisco, Walcott walloped 10 home runs while putting up a .325/.401/.590 slash line and a 149 wRC+. He hasn’t been nearly as good in the AFL — seven hits in 31 at-bats, with a lone dinger — but there is no disputing his potential to one day hit in the middle of a big league lineup.
Once upon a time, he punished pitchers who were windmilling balls from a mound 43 feet away from home plate. As did Jazz Chisholm Jr. and others from the Bahamas, Walcott played softball growing up. Read the rest of this entry »
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