Cade Smith Found the Sweet Spot on a Lethal, Low-Spin Splitter

Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

Cade Smith is one of the game’s most dominant closers. Since debuting with the Cleveland Guardians in 2024, the 27-year-old right-hander from Abbotsford, British Columbia boasts a 2.26 ERA, a 1.84 FIP, and a 35.5% strikeout rate over 219 appearances comprising 233 innings. Moreover, he enters October on the heels of his best season to date. Not only did Smith forge a 1.95 ERA over 74 frames, his 41 saves tied him with Tampa Bay’s Bryan Baker for the most in the majors.

His development is a testament to his raw talent and work ethic, but also to the Guardians’ highly regarded pitching program. When Smith signed with Cleveland as an amateur free agent in 2020 following the pandemic-truncated five-round draft, he barely resembled the pitcher he is today. The University of Hawaii product now features a 97.5-mph heater that ranked in the 91st percentile for velocity this year, a devastating bat-missing splitter, and a sweeper that elicited a .133 xBA.

A lot has changed over the years.

“When Cade entered the organization he was a low-90s pitcher with no secondary stuff,” explained Guardians bullpen coach Caleb Longshore, who previously tutored Smith as both a minor league pitching coach and coordinator. “We identified some things in his delivery that he has leaned into over the years, and we’ve seen a steady year-over-year increase in velocity. He started working on the splitter in 2023, in [Double-A] Akron, when [now big league assistant pitching coach] Brad Goldberg was there.”

Smith’s relationship with Longshore and Goldberg was a point of interest when I spoke with him in the final week of the regular season. Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: St. Louis Cardinals – Multiple Openings

Direct links to applications (please see job details below):

2027 Baseball Development Fellow
2027 Minor League Affiliate Fellow


2027 Baseball Development Fellow

Location: St. Louis, MO

Job Summary:

The St. Louis Cardinals are seeking candidates for a Baseball Development Fellow position for the 2027 calendar year. The goal of the Baseball Development department is to automate processes and synthesize data to make baseball decisions easier and more accurate. The Fellow will work on projects at the direction of Baseball Development senior leadership. At the end of the Fellowship, the Cardinals and the Fellow will jointly determine whether there is an appropriate opportunity for continued employment within the Cardinals’ Baseball Operations department. Although a January 2027 start is preferred, the starting date of the position is flexible based on candidate availability or expected graduation date.

Job Duties:

  • Assist Baseball Development with data collection, data entry, and data quality tasks to support analysis.
  • Communicate effectively with Baseball Development staff and complete ad-hoc requests as needed.
  • Conduct independent analytical or technical projects under the guidance of Baseball Development staff.
  • Must be able to travel domestically.

Education/Experience Required:

  • Current college senior or recent postgraduate with coursework or experience in a quantitative field, such as statistics, mathematics, engineering, or economics.
  • Strong interest in and understanding of baseball and baseball-specific data, plus knowledge of current baseball research and strategy.
  • Proven ability to learn new programming languages as needed.
  • Proficiency in Microsoft Excel and Google Suite.
  • Ability to work weekdays, nights, weekends, and holidays as dictated by the baseball schedule.

Education/Experience Preferred:

  • Practical experience in SQL and an understanding of database design principles.
  • Practical experience handling large data with statistical software (e.g., R, Python).
  • Experience with advanced statistical modeling, application development, or software engineering.
  • Prior experience playing or working in baseball or softball.

To Apply
To apply, please follow this link.


2027 Minor League Affiliate Fellow

Location: St. Louis, MO

Job Summary:

The St. Louis Cardinals are currently seeking candidates for Minor League Affiliate Fellowship positions. The position is embedded across our affiliates, with each Fellow managing all aspects of video, technology, and data capture at their assigned location while supporting the day-to-day needs of the coaching staff and other Player Development staff. The data and video collected through these technologies are used throughout the organization to provide feedback to players, support staff decision-making, and aid in player development.

This role will work directly with the Baseball Technology, Baseball Development, and Player Development departments while serving as an important connection between the affiliate and the larger organization. Fellows will be expected to take ownership of all baseball technology needs at their affiliate.

Ideal candidates will demonstrate a strong work ethic, technical aptitude, attention to detail, effective communication skills, and a passion for pursuing a career in Baseball Operations. Candidates should be comfortable working in a fast-paced environment, troubleshooting problems as they arise, and prioritizing responsibilities based on staff needs and organizational impact.

This is a seasonal role for the 2027 season but may lead to a second-year associate position with the goal of continued development and potential future full-time opportunities within Baseball Operations. Throughout the season, Fellows will gain exposure to multiple areas of Baseball Operations, with opportunities to grow, learn, and continue developing their technical, baseball, and professional skill sets.

Job duties:

  • Manage baseball technology and video capture at the affiliate (e.g., Portable TrackMan, Blast Motion, Edgertronic camera, Panasonic camcorders, etc.).
  • Support daily field and indoor pre-game activities.
  • During games, depending on staff needs:
    • Manage in-game technology and video capture from the dugout.
    • Set up video camcorders for game recording.
    • Troubleshoot technology issues as they arise while minimizing disruption to staff and players.
  • Ensure data and video collected throughout the day are properly stored, cleaned, synced, and available for ingestion.
  • Assist with advance scouting needs at the affiliate.
  • Serve as a conduit between the affiliate and the larger organization, relaying questions, issues, and requests.
  • Maintain frequent communication with the Personnel Coordinator regarding technical issues and requests.
  • Attend Spring Training and offseason camps and travel with the assigned minor league team throughout the season.

Experience/Education Required:

  • Familiarity with and/or willingness to learn technologies such as Blast Motion, TrackMan, and video integration.
  • Proficient with computers, iPads, and other electronics, with familiarity with basic technology troubleshooting steps.
  • Demonstrated interest in pursuing a career in Baseball Operations.
  • Familiarity with modern baseball metrics and player development concepts.
  • Postgraduate, college senior, or recent graduate available to start work onsite in Jupiter, FL prior to Spring Training.
  • Previous baseball experience and demonstrated ability to communicate effectively in a team setting.
  • Ability to remain composed and flexible when dealing with equipment issues, schedule changes, and other unexpected circumstances.
  • Ability to work weekdays, nights, weekends, and holidays.
  • Spanish fluency is a plus.

To Apply
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the St. Louis Cardinals.


Job Posting: Cleveland Guardinas – 2027 Baseball Technology Fellowship

Direct link to application (please see job details below):

2027 Baseball Technology Fellowship


2027 Baseball Technology Fellowship

Location: Goodyear, Arizona, United States

Primary Purpose:
The Cleveland Guardians Fellowship program is designed to accelerate the pace of development and impact for people interested in working for our organization. Fellowship roles are focused on solving complex challenges, which involve developing innovative approaches, tools, and techniques to meaningfully drive the organization forward. Fellows will contribute to work across multiple departments and will be encouraged to use a suite of internal and proprietary resources.

We are seeking Fellows to join our Baseball Technology department. Each Fellow will work full-time with one of our minor league affiliates (Columbus, Akron, Lake County, Hill City, and Arizona Complex) and report to the Baseball Technology, Player Development, and Baseball Operations departments. Fellows will be expected to manage the collection of multiple data streams and operate as a resource for both coaches and players. This position will include travel to away games.

This Fellowship combines hands-on technology operations, video and data collection, real-time troubleshooting, staff support, and baseball analysis. The strongest candidates will be curious, creative, and open-minded, with a willingness to execute essential daily processes, respond to unexpected challenges, communicate clearly, and build strong relationships across a collaborative environment. They will also have opportunities to explore new ideas, present complex topics to a wide range of audiences, and take initiative on research that advances the Guardians’ organizational procedures and philosophies.

Essential Duties & Responsibilities
Baseball Technology:

  • Oversee operations of bat/ball/player tracking systems and emerging sports science technologies.
  • Manage pre-game, in-game, and post-game video processes.
  • Assist with the interpretation & distribution of the data and video collected.
  • Assist the Information Systems team with Baseball Technology related troubleshooting and support.

Coaching Staff Support:

  • Support affiliate coaching staff with Advance Scouting Process.
  • Assist affiliate staff with assorted administrative tasks (i.e. daily scheduling, team travel, player housing).
  • Assist Minor League field staff with pre-game activities.

Baseball Development and Analysis:

  • Collaborate with coaching staff, Player Development, and Baseball Operations to monitor player goals and player progress.
  • Perform ad hoc research and analysis, both at the request of staff and independently.
  • Communicate findings and insights to Minor League Coaches, Players, and Player Development and Baseball Operations Departments.

Requirements:
The Cleveland Guardians are committed to developing and maintaining an environment that embraces all forms of diversity to enrich our core values, enhance our competitive position, strengthen our impact within our community, and foster a greater sense of belonging for our employees.

In this spirit, we know studies have shown that people from historically underserved groups – including women and people of color – are less likely to apply for jobs unless they believe they meet every one of the qualifications as described in a job description. We are most interested in finding the best candidate for the job and understand that candidate may bring certain skills and experiences to the role that are not listed above, but that would add tremendous value to our organization. We would encourage you to apply, even if you don’t believe you meet every one of our qualifications described.

  • Bachelor’s degree or Prior Professional Experience.
  • Demonstrated passion for at least one of baseball technology, scouting, baseball analytics, sports science, hitting or pitching analysis and/or biomechanics, strength and conditioning, motor learning, or other baseball/softball related field.

Skills:

  • Organization: Ability to create, maintain and execute a schedule effectively.
  • Work Ethic: A relentless drive to collect more and better information.
  • Passion: Demonstrate a clear passion for the game, teammates, the organization, and learning.
  • Resourcefulness: Identify available resources to solve problems and better understand organizational philosophies.
  • Strategic Thinking: Employ a problem-solving mindset focused on long term impact.
  • Time Management: Ability to prioritize in a fast-paced environment.
  • Collaboration: Partner with staff and players. Exhibit excellent written and verbal communication skills.
  • Adaptability: Remain effective when schedules, priorities, technology, or staff needs change unexpectedly.

Preferred Experience:
While we are looking for a variety of diverse skill sets for this role, we know that past Fellows who have thrived in this role possessed certain skills that are best aligned to the game of baseball. If you have demonstrated experience with any of the following, you may be better positioned to thrive in this role.

  • Conversational Spanish or better a plus.
  • Experience with video editing software a plus.
  • Experience with SQL and statistical software (i.e. R, Python, Stata, SAS) a plus.
  • Proficiency with Microsoft Office.
  • Working knowledge of advanced baseball statistics and publicly available research.

Standard Requirements:

  • Represents the Cleveland Guardians in a positive fashion to all business partners and the general public.
  • Reads, speaks, comprehends, and communicates English effectively in all communications.
  • Ability to develop and maintain successful working relationships with members in all departments of the organization.
  • Ability to act according to the organizational values and service excellence at all times.
  • Ability to work with diverse populations and have a demonstrated commitment to social justice.
  • Ability to walk, sit or stand for an entire shift.
  • Ability to work extended days and hours, including holidays and weekends.
  • Ability to move throughout all areas and levels of the Ballpark.
  • Ability to work in a diverse and changing environment.
  • Occasional physical activity such as lifting and carrying boxes up to 25 lbs.

About Us:
In Baseball Technology, our shared goal is to identify and develop diverse players and front office teammates who contribute to our mission. By working together effectively and collaboratively, we create a family atmosphere that supports learning as we strive for excellence in everything we do. We believe that we will achieve our goals by making evidence-based decisions and creating environments that support our people and empower them to learn.

To Apply
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Cleveland Guardians.


These Braves Are Bound for Glory: Kerr, Harris Punch Ticket to NLDS

Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

On April 12, 1862, a group of 24 Union spies — most of them volunteer soldiers, led by civilian James Andrews — commandeered a locomotive in Big Shanty, Georgia, and headed north. Their goal was to rendezvous with Union forces in Chattanooga, destroying rail and telegraph lines as they went. Andrews and his men ran out of fuel less than 18 miles from their destination; all of the raiders were captured and eight, including Andrews, were executed.

Some 164 years later and 15 miles southeast, another group of 20-odd belligerents from up north attempted a heist of their own. The Phillies had just stolen Game 2 of the Wild Card Series against the Braves, and a repeat performance would win them the series.

They fared little better than the Andrews Raiders. Michael Harris II put Atlanta ahead with a three-run first-inning home run, and Ray Kerr turned in an improbably spectacular spot start that kept the Braves on top the rest of the way for an eventual 6-2 win. None of Don Mattingly’s men were hanged, at least not yet. We’ll see what kind of a reception they get back home. Read the rest of this entry »


Members Only Game Thread- Phillies vs Braves

Welcome to our Open Game Thread for the Phillies-Braves Wild Card Game 3. Chat with fellow readers as we watch to see who will advance to take on the Dodgers in the NLDS! Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual game chats, your messages will be posted immediately.

Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this is a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts. We might even have some FanGraphs Staff drop in and join the fun. Please be courteous to your fellow Members, or you may find your chat privileges revoked.

Hello Everyone!

Hi!

Which of these teams has a better shot against the Dodgers?

I'll say the Braves because I think they were just better this year. The Phillies do have the "built better for the playoffs" thing since they're so top heavy. I think the Dodgers would be heavily favored either way of course.

JT Realmuto implies the existence of a TJ Fakemuto

I appreciate this even if no one else does

This gambit is pop on toast

I've got Steelers on the TV and baseball on laptop. So much PA.

Aaron Nola feels like a bad idea, but sometimes bad ideas work out hilariously well in the playoffs.

Short leash presumably

How many outs do we think Nola and Holmes get combined? 15?

Hard to see both of them pitching that well for me

I can make that poll. At least an O/U poll. Set at 15?

14.5

As I said in chat, I'm interested in seeing if they try to keep Kerr in there through second time Harper/Schwarber instead of start burning Dylans

They give him quite a few three inning stints

I thought this bar didn’t have the game on and now it’s on and now I’m here everyone!

If Kerr allows Schwarber or Harper to get on, that'd be pop on toast

Guessing he'll walk at least one of them

I'm going to continue to use pop on toast from chat

Oppo schwaboo makes me feel like it'll be a big night for him

Good piece of hitting ™ by Schwarber

Oof

How much does the 1pm start times theyve had negate the home field advantage? Smaller and quieter crowds

I've never actually looked at day vs. night home field

Or attendance based.

Certainly a different atmosphere

that's an interesting question

Maybe I'll add to that the to do list for Things to Write About in a Very Long Offseason

Can this be a mailbag submission?

If you were a doordasher and saw a note that said "Only buy the Chessmen cookies if they have the chess shapes, I don't want to eat the limited edition shapes like those stupid gardening theme they had in the spring" would you swipe by, assuming I'm a psychopath?

We don't need to assume, Dan.

I don’t really have anything to add right now, but hey, members only!

Not a gambling gal myself, but I would be interested in a "more liberty biberty ads than hits" line

Take the over, only because we're watching Aaron Nola vs. Ray Kerr

Oh, hey Doug! You already knew I was a psychopath because of the Boyardee note.

We still love ya buddy!

I think they would write your name in on election day

Hey everybody! I'm working on my Yanks-Rays preview right now, but I'll try to keep an eye on the chat as well.

Hello again, Jack.

And I'm here until Davy finishes his Yanks-Rays preview — then I'll have to edit it

Dan, is this the first time you've participated in two chats in the same day? It's kind like pitching in both games of a double-header.

One thing fun about these chats is that sometimes Sean updates the software in real time

I'm in Zanzibar

Howdy Davy

I once did eight hours of a chat in one day for one of these playoff megachats. And that was when ESPN was paying me!

JU, the country or the club in New Jersey?

Actually, I do have something. What’s it going to take to get an Atlanta fans to stop doing performative caricatures of indigenous human beings? It’s the 21st century and people shouldn’t suck this much.

hell freezing over. they have stuff at their park about how "it's actually totally fine and indigenous people actually like it"

At what point does it just become a "sports" thing? Chiefs, Florida State, and Im guessing other college schools do it too. I wish it wasnt a thing, but intent has to be factored right?

I edited this piece from Stephanie Apstein during the 2021 World Series at SI, and it got a lot of ppl talking about it for a bit, but then nothing happened https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/10/28/atlanta-braves-tomahawk-ch…

Dammit. I'm in Zanzibar. It's 3:30 AM I'm supposed to go away (to another part of the island) for the weekend with someone I met here tomorrow. If I don't go to sleep soon I'm going to be very tired tomorrow. Should I go to bed or watch baseball?

Might be the wrong crowd to pose the question too, JU!

As a Cubs fan, I guess I root for the Phillies solely for Schwarber.

My lost son, how we miss you so.

Our collective Large Adult Son.

aaron nola in a playoff game is a wild time

Or the right one

If Nola walks Harris, they should probably pull him

wait until you hear what happened

looks like they keep him in

Mattingly should let him die out there. none of that whimpy reliever BS

If you see Bert Lahr's Christopher Columbus Lay's commercial, the Tomahawk Chop chant seems tame by comparison https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-R139Gf-Xf4

That was quick

Didn't walk him

Well…

Nola feels like a bad idea

Boom

that pitch was in the dirt lol

Well this was fun.

Zach Wheeler seems like he might've been a better choice to start the game

hell, i'd take zack on two hours of rest

huge shout out to the announcers for just shutting up and letting the crowd go nuts

Aaron Nola's pitching like someone who knows he's like 30 minutes away from having diarrhea and he needs to get out of the game quickly

I don't think 3 will be enough tonight. But it's a good start

Grant Holmes will give up some, but how many?

Nola' s pitching like he accidentally ate some pop on toast

That pitch was two inches below the zone. That's a gutsy swing after two straight walks.

Wasn’t even a strike

If the Phils lose, can Kruk just rove and be in a DS booth?

They showed Dubon making a face like I do when I hear about free tacos

Nola may already have tickets to NOLA

that pitch was absolutely tipped

Hi Meg!

These chats are absolutely fantastic y'all, a tremendous perk to being a member!

Hi Matt!

Hello, Meg!

It's funny how this seems to be the most FG writer-dense chat, more than the ones actually designed to be

Hi Davy!

As a Dodgers fan (yeah, yeah) I'm just rooting for this to stay close so the winner exhausts their pen.

I figured I'd pop in and say hi since I wasn't able to yesterday.

What do you even do here if you're Mattingly? Too early to put in Wheeler, you can't keep Nola in, non-Duran pen stinks.

Chopped meat vs tomahawk chop. No easy answer..,

Philly has some GREAT pizza. Easy choice.

I prefer the Phillies’ pretzel game

Anyone else get a little bit sad watching end-stage Aaron Nola?

Yes. He’s done well with what he has and sometimes it’s still enough. Not today tho…

No, 46, I find the inevitable decay that awaits us all quite enjoyable.

Feature idea @Sean, reaction flags! Such as an "!!" for Anonymous' message

Definitely a good idea.

I love that Harris is just on the iPad watching himself rock that pitch again.

Davy, I saw an interview with Roger Federer where they asked if he watched film of his matches. He said 'Yes I do, but to be honest, it's mainly for my own enjoyment.' Really stuck with me

Justin Morneau on Twins broadcasts often talks about how before a game/AB he'd watch video of himself hitting homeruns to identify what he was doing mechanically well. Apparently teammates made fun of him for it a lot.

Yeah. They should change the [Enter] as submit function.

We can possibly change that, but Enter to submit and shift + enter for a new line is somewhat standard. Maybe we can make that an option.

Are people on mobile devices really using shift+enter?

How many people are on mobile vs computer?

This is such an odd series. Neither team feels “good” in the old playoff sense.
And then I remember that’s what wildcards are!

I really don't get how the braves won 94 games

My brother is in his lucky chair with his lucky hat ans 2 backup hats. So if the Braves lose, it's his fault.

I'm so happy that there's not a Line of Fire commercial every single break

"I'm a little teapot, short and stout" for Stott is great

If there's such thing as a wipeout cutter this might be it

Is there hope still that Kruk says "slutter"?

what do y'all think: is nola coming back out for round two?

No one was even warming in the first, so yes

I was gonna say it chews scenery

Surprised to see Sosa. He looked like he came up lame in Game 1

Do they make Liberty Biberty pinatas?

WHY DOES IT HAVE TEETH

Meg, your comment says it's awaiting review, and I wonder who gets to review it.

I do.

It didn't like that I was yelling

but also, why does it have teeth!?

TESTING THE YELLING

I appreciate MH2 just admitting "I was trying to homer there" haha

It doesn't have a digestive system, does it? Why does it need to chew?

It eats up airtime, Meg!

It’s giving Sonic The Hedgehog teeth

thankfully I don't think most mascots have teeth right?

which would be most horrifying with teeth

i mean, it has to be the phanatic, right?

eww yep

Hi Sean!

Gritty and the Phanatic don't

How do we think Votto has been in this “on the field” role?

I've been digging it.

Yeah I've liked Votto

Does your comment have to await review if you talk about BUTTS? (Just checking.)

Extremely uncertain as to why Mattingly has a low leverage lefty up if not for Smith, this is perplexing

Mattingly making perplexing pitching decisions? More at 11.

5/6 balls in play off of Nola have been hard hit

Hi, Jon!

I'm going to say hi to everyone.

Once the Phillies season is over, remember they have the incredibly awkward dynamic of Don Mattingly's son deciding if his dad should keep his job

Did Ryan Dempster pioneer the glove shake mid windup?

Meg saw the commercial and wondered why the mascot had teeth. I saw it and started wondering how Liberty got from a commercial of a struggling actor flubbing his lines and saying "Liberty Biberty" to now having a Biberty mascot.

They too seem to be doing a weird version of throwing **** at the wall. They’ve got that whole other set of ads with the cheesy 80s cop and the emu. Is this maybe just the game in advertising these days? They’re trying to find something that’ll go viral and they got some focus group data that a mascot from Critters 2: The Main Course tested well.

Don Smith looks a lot sadder than he actually is

Man, what a weird season for Nola..

Liberty Biberty? Jason Benetti’s interviewee?

Well, I guess Dom doesn’t exist as a name and I’ve spent no time in New Jersey

The phanatic but with the mouth of a sea lamprey

I am never recovering from this visual

I'm fascinated by the decision to start Nola

If Wheeler is available tonight, why didn't the Phillies just start him?

well why would you not want 1.2 high-quality innings from prime aaron nola?

It just kinda felt like this was the inevitable conclusion to starting Nola- trailing by multiple runs before your best pitchers even get a chance to throw, and still having to go to the pen early

Great, now there’s ANOTHER word in that stupid Liberty song…

They had to have known Nola wouldn't last line. Baffling

Mattingly’s reasoning was that they think Wheeler profiles better out of the bullpen, which may well be true, but it’s gonna matter a helluva lot less down three than tied

Was there a case to start someone like Bowlan? Feels like a much likelier clean 6 outs.

If I'm Philly, I want Wheeler and Duran getting the maximum # of outs possible, then praying that your line up gives you enough that you feel comfortable piecing together the end of the game

Yes, Wheeler profiles better as a reliever than Nola, but he also profiles as a better starter

Do you think the Phillies considered Mayza opening for Nola? Feel like it would have made plenty of sense with the top of the Braves order being quite LHH heavy.

Yeah, my feeling was that if they were only going to use Wheeling for an inning or two, it makes sense to strategize where you deploy him. If you're willing to use him for four innings, I think you just start him

Why not start Duran, have him go 2, then Wheeler?

Heck, why not start 2008 Joe Blanton?

Do….. do you have a time machine and you aren't sharing it with the rest of us?

I used it to introduce Liberty Biberty into this timeline

Oh no

Has Bowlan pitched at all this series?

No but he warmed up multiple times in game 1

There should be a limit on political TV ads. Like only within 4 weeks of an election. Or none

We started getting them in AZ in July lol.

Isn't bowlan out with a groin injury?
edit: i am wrong

I gotta say, the incessant promoting makes me want to watch The Traitors even less than I did, which was zero

My only guess is that they thought Nola’s been good enough of late that they could get at least once through the order with him.

Well that was fun

I can't believe I am saying this, but I miss the days of Big Bang Theory promos

Phillies IF doesnt make that play.

Was just thinking this. That was an incredible play.

I dont remember which jabroni wrote the series preview for this, but they didnt mention defense at all. Its been a story all series though.

Check this pun out: Dubie Thursday

The brothers would be proud

Mauricio Dubon is fantastic

As a Dodgers fanatic, I'm thrilled with the Harris homer. Respectfully, of course.

Interesting. I'm a Dodgers fan and I'd much rather face Philly!

Yeah, I'm probably misremembering the season. The Braves probably smoked us. But I'm thinking that, after Sale, the Braves starters aren't particularly scary…

Sean, we need to get upvotes in here so my humor can be feted

I'm leaning toward emoji reacts or something. So you can get 😂 instead.

Maybe this is Ray Kerr’s moment before he goes back to groundskeeping

Please don't tell me that just anybody can play 1st. Olsen is as valuable a defender as there is on the team.

Do we know if first base defense ages well? I love the idea of Matt Olson being an elite defender into his 40s

Looked like Ray Kerr said he wants to keep going as he walked into the dugout, love that

Goldy's defense is still good.

Does Kerr get Schwarber and Harper in the 4th now?

He's got to

Ray Kerr goes 5 and gets the win.

The warning that it's from the *commissioner* of baseball really makes me want to broadcast the transmission without expressed written consent

That guy just implies EVERYTHING

THIS Dodger fan thinks the Phillies are a slightly bigger risk than Atlanta. Because pitching

I love how TV show commercials tend to discourage me from watching the advertised TV show

I remember when Arrested Development debut way back. The commercials for it were *awful* and made it seem like a schlocky sitcom.

I didn't watch it until several episodes in and only then by accident

Braves defense makes that play.

Oh hey another defensive play not made by Philadelphia

In his defense, they hit the ball RIGHT at him. Must be scary.

It's been awhile since Mattingly has managed; I hope he's not saving Wheeler so he can be fresh for Game 4…

Hey hey, party people!

Turner is turning into Story, heaven forbid.

Hi Jay!

yo jay

Hi, Jay!

So, if Mattingly Jr. has to whack Mattingly Sr., does that f-up Thanksgiving?

Oh Jay is here! I was just about to ask the chat if we think Acuna is on a Hall of Fame trajectory? Feels like it could go either way at this point, and health could be the most important factor

Dubon gets my vote for most underrated player. He is just so valuable.

Did the Phillies need Nola at all tonight? Not completely tracking their bullpen usage minus Painter and Duran

Zack Wheeler's gray beard makes me feel very old.

These two pitching staffs feel so thin I could read a newspaper through them

What an image

Haven't we as a society progressed beyond the need to make a Scrooge movie starring Johnny Depp in 2026?

Haven't we progressed past the need for Johnny Depp at all?

Acuña got a great start to a HOF trajectory but he's totaled 5.0 bWAR since his MVP season — that's 3 years worth. He's still got a decent shot if he can get back on track but his bat has rarely been special lately, his defense has deteriorated, and he can't stay on the field.

I'm sorry but the rationale being that "Wheeler is a better relief option than Nola" is still so confounding to me!

"Why are you eating garbage?"
"Because I thought food would be a better dessert than garbage."

I think the problem is they didn't really have any good options if Wheeler can't throw 5 innings.

I'll be honest I had never heard of Ray Kerr before today. And I follow baseball very closely. Could probably name 500-600 current major league players. But not him

Samsies

I had barely heard of Kerr either.

One thing about covering Yankees-Red Sox WCS with those 8 pm games is that you really don't get to watch much of any of the other series, particularly not with sound because you're just catching glimpses of it during stray moments.

If there's one player you could read a newspaper through, it's Kerr.

he's a Giacometti sculptue on the mound

Ray Kerr may just be Cristopher Sanchez

Halloween isn't for 30 days, Jack!

Haha good point

As an expert at the obvious. I don't think Weiss expected to get 3 1/3 from Kerr.

Do we think the booth makes a Kenny Powers reference?

The only good progressive commercial these days is the one where she warns college kids about how they’ll have to decide what to have every night for dinner for the rest of their lives

Fun play there by Holmes

That play was sick

Grant Holmes arriving late because he spent a million dollars on two chicks at the same time.

that fan new exactly how to make an out call

Does that go down as 1-1-1-1-3?

We need that laugh react

I was waiting for Holmes to throw up his hands because the ball got lost inside his hair.

Bohm being slow has helped the Braves twice tonight

I need to assign Baumann a mailbag question about a hypothetical rule for when a ball gets lost in a player's hair

His hair looks like it’s attached to his hat

So someone step up and submit one!

My brother's late wife's sister is a hairdresser in Conway, SC. I wonder if she did Holmes hair when he was in high school?

I know that game was much closer but this feels like 2011 all over again for the Phillies. I hope it goes differently

How are we still talking about "rest vs rust" on these broadcasts? Like why would you want to have to play an entire extra series where you can lose?

the discourse about whether it's good to play in a wildcard series is infuriatingly stupid

<broad gesture at everything>

Hear, hear. But just to be clear, I'm not deleting that paragraph from my Rays-Yanks preview.

Both those teams will be pretty rested

This isn’t the Wheeler I remember from Taxi

if you win, is the momentum worth not being able to rest your pitchers? Maybe, probably not, but you can also lose

welp

Joey "The Braves aren't going to score any more runs" Votto

Uh oh

This might not be an electric finish

I think if Ozzie Albies is hitting dongs against you in 2026, might not be your series…

Listening to the Atlanta radio broadcast. They are a bit worked up. "Ascend into the heavens. . ."

This one feels like it's over

is this what a window slamming shut sounds like?

Surely you know what that sounds like.

I'm usually fairly gentle with my windows

he's more of a Dorfman than a window guy

Votto really should give up on doing Romo predictions during the broadcast

Ozzie Albies may be only four feet tall but he can hit the ball a long way once in awhile.

He hit that 104.75 Albies (if he were actually four feet tall)

Ouch…

Nice swing from Ounce-Pound

OZ LB, for those raising their eyebrows

Harris catches that

I'll not have you impugn the Phillies defense!
<checks notes>
Ok, I'll allow it.

Im going to harp on it until Dan apologizes for not covering defense at all in the series preview

Umpire cam on these homers during WC has been great

Now I miss How Many Altuves

I've always wondered what will happen to Albies' fish if he ever gets traded.

Isn't he finally a free agent in a month?

their own wing in the Georgia Aquarium

Braves have a 7m option for next year

option's cheap, they'll pick it up

A dedicated moving truck with full garbage cans full of water?

Just read the Ray Kerr wiki page and wow what a story he's got

It's really amazing – night of that dude's life.

there's already a paragraph for this start, those editors are on the ball

I googled "aquarium movers." Apparently there's a company called Tank Me Later LLC. Of course.

Do they list the Rockies as a part owner?

I wonder what positions his fish would play on the diamond? Potential mailbag or offseason EW question

Oooooo, other than them being labeled as vaguely "exotic," do we know what sort of fish?

he's got a youtube channel dedicated to the fish: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClRj8Cp2HHjXrqRIdy6SvYw/vid…

How am I just learning about this now?!

He lists a lot in here too: https://richeisenshow.com/read/exotic-fish-expert-braves-2b-…

Saltwater?

Or freshwater not actually sure

"Fish."

Confident in that at least

Can I repeal my opinion that I want the Braves to play the Dogs? Forgot about the tomahawk chop crap.

The lack of frizz on Grant Holmes' curls is so impressive to me.

I Holmes related to Weird Al?

Anyone else watching the CBS reality lineup on a different screen?

Have Thursday Night Football on the small TV, and boy is it a throwback bad Thursday game…

I forgot there’s football too! We’re TV rich tonight it seems

I was just thinking of Weird Al too

That Realmuto contract is lookin pretty bad

Man the bottom of this Phillies line up is brutal

That might have been the Phillies last gasp.

Before they enter Ozzie's fish tank?

Alright, time for dinner. Back later!

It's going to take a lot of Schwarber and Harper solo home runs to pull this one out. A third hitter would be helpful

I don't mind the Traitors commercials as much as the Line of Fire commercials since you don't hear the same song over and over again

With Ohtani leaving stage left, a case could be made for Harris to be second to PCA in the MVP voting.

Elly De La Cruz was 2 wins better and went 30-30, he's a much more plausible runner-up to PCA than Harris

Grant Holmes looks so much like Rod Beck from the back, and that makes me nostalgic.

Where do you think Miz finishes in MVP voting?

I'd put him behind Turang but I'm biased against pitchers for mvp in most circumstances

I forgot the Reds were still in the league.

Some days I wish they weren't. But then I remember that I have bills to pay.

There's the Kenny Powers!

The O/U is final, at 12 combined outs from Holmes and Nola

This was closer than I thought. 68.18% of those who responded to the poll were right!

This game is really the Phils philsing as hard as they can phils.

Anticlimactic double

I feel like Schwarber had a shot at home if he’s really booking it? Idk feel like they need the run there

Feels like you need these 2 here to have a chance

Not a ton of urgency from Schwarber on the bases

Dylan Dodd to face those two looking like a missed opportunity

Kyle Schwarber was running the bases there like I was running after knee surgery.

Does anyone else think the sound mixing is off? Seems like the stadium noise and organ are so loud you can’t hear the commentary

Bohm rolling over one to kill the rally feels apropos

I certainly expected to see Dodd.

Haven't heard from Juicy Drop Pop in a while

I hope the screen unfreezes before the game starts again.

I realize that the sequencing is unlikely to be in alignment, but if we're moving on to a Braves-Dodgers NLDS, who would you rather have as a SP: Sale or Yamamoto? I would say the latter, but it could be a generally fun series for fans who enjoy ace-watching.

Sale's got the better numbers since Yamamoto came over, but the 2 CGs in the playoffs last year were crazy. I'm biased but give me Sale and the Ks

To me, Sale has raw dominance (better in topline stats this season) and Yamamoto has consistency (most QS in MLB). I like Yamamoto, because he gives you the best distributed probability of a G1 W. I can understand the other viewpoint, though

Not to beat a dead horse but…how do you not start Wheeler?!

When you have the opportunity to start a guy with one of the highest HR/9 in the league in a win or go home game, you simply have to take it

Mattingly implied that he favored Nola's rest over Wheeler's potential output. I understand that rationale, but you would think that they could have skipped a rest day or two in the past month to ensure that the timing was aligned

They had him lined up to start game 1, but then they had to run him out in game 162 cause they failed to lock a playoff spot before that. Oops!

The rest thing is crazy to me though. Did he not watch Yamamoto in the World Series last year?? This is the playoffs, dawg, there is no tomorrow. Leave it all out there.

Exactly, Dan! Give him a 70- or 80-pitch limit and the start

I'd argue neither will even be the best pitcher in the series

Ray Kerr >>

Justin Wrobleski!

Mr. Regression to the FIP

Wheeler throwing 70 pitches , at least, makes the Phillies decision to start Nola very suspect.

Ray Kerr's name is wasted on a pitcher

When I was a kid I didnt think Kruk was an actual major leaguer. I thought he was an actor like the mean guy in Rookie of the Year. Still not sure

The Wheeler situation shows what a huge disadvantage it is to be in a race that comes down to the last day.

that's part of the penalty of getting in via the Wild Card. You may not be able to set up your pitching and you have almost no margin for error.

I just realized you can edit your typos now! Don't think Sean is here but someone please praise him for that.

Oh I'm here! I'm just working on mobile app integration. And making sure everything else is working.

Why would you throw Chris Sale in a four-run game here?!

If Schwarber/Harper come up this inning, it'd be huge. But next inning? I dont know why. Maybe just 15 pitches?

I just knew Sale would play a role.

Sean did an incredible job with this

Sale is throwing up 4 runs with 8 outs to get…?

This is such an added bonus. I can't thank everyone involved enough.

I dunno how you would justify Sale unless the game was closer maybe even then.

Dodger fan here: thank you, Mr. Weiss, for foolishly warming Sale!

You have to play the long game if you're the Braves. Assume that you don't need Sale today, and keep him ready for the Dodgers. Long way to go, esp on the NL side

Right now, you'd just burn him to be a mopup. I don't like the idea. It's too cute

Are they Alcantara-ing Sale?

Except that it is not his throw day.

Gotta have other arms they trust besides Sale

Is there a remote chance that Sale in the bullpen is a decoy? Has he done his throwing session yet today?

I certainly hope this is just weird 3D chess and not a real plan

If Weiss sees ShwArper as such a threat, just pitch Iglesias?

I feel like the Braves could really use Strider and Schwellenbach

Ya' think.

even if they don't want Lee, which is probably wise, you've got Suter and Dodd who haven't thrown this series. If 2 reach, you go to Iggy

Great play by Bowlan there

really important to scratch a couple across here with the top of the lineup agaisnt Bowlan, if only to keep Sale in the pen

Ask and you shall receive.

hit it in the pen too so you could see Dodd warming. what a guy

Sit down, Sale

That'll do it

The guy who kept giving up hrs so frequently that he was effectively shelved, gave up a hr. I, for one, am shocked.

But seriously, why not Duran and McFarlane? There is nothing to lose.

It's an interesting question

Dubon tried something there

I don't see how Mattingly can survive this game

Mattingly manager or Mattingly general manager?

Do you prefer "Gone-y Baseball" or "Done-y Baseball"?

I can't wait for the Phillies to come back here and have the Dubón kicked ball be the turning point

that'd be fantastic

Not great by Acuna there

Does the wind swirl extra in RF there?

Does Harris catch that? /s

In his hip pocket.

Yes

Sale up again

Is this really necessary

Wtf why

Needlessly cute

This is a bit ridiculous

this makes no sense

Why

No way

There is nobody else who can get 4 outs before giving up 4 runs???

Memories of 2018.

Here he comes! For some reason!!

I’d think they want him for Saturday more than now

I do love watching Sale pitch but come on

Up four with two out, nobody on in the eighth inning — why?

One of many problems with this is the 3-batter minimum. If Sale doesn't get him he could throw many more pitches than is probably planned.

so dumb

Dodgers day thankx.

I guess the idea is this just pushes his start from game 2 to game 3 of the DS? But, maybe even game 4?

Does this do anything at all to the psyche of the other bullpen arms?

Bringing Sale in here is cool as hell and also wildly unnecessary

Did he just insist, Scherzer-style? And no one can say no?

haha might be that actually

Sale? Wow that's a choice

I would think it’s for the one out/three hitters but what if that takes 20 pitches? I would’ve just left Dodd in for Harper and gone to Raisel after

Well, he looks sharp at least

maybe he's just in to face Harper? Would make more sense, he just has to get him out

That's poor by Harper

Not great, Bryce

If Harper was awake Sale would have had to throw more pitches.

All right Chris great work, your day should be done now

Now I'M the one saying, "BOOOO-urns"

Just watched Spencer Jones reach off Crochet that way last night. I'm sure Harper not running will go over well in Philly

He didn't even run hard when he did get goin lol

The pitching decisions this game have been baffling

I mean if this were the Nationals, Phillies would have like a 60% win probability down 4 with 3 outs to go.

Does Weiss know that if Sale starts game 2 of the LDS then he can also start game 5?

Can someone explain to me Brandon Marsh's hair? Does he fill it with some kind of slime before each game? I have long hair, my head sweats plenty when I exercise, my hair has never looked like his

He pours water all over it constantly

Jake Mintz wrote about it back in 2022! https://www.foxsports.com/stories/mlb/why-brandon-marshs-wet…

I believe Marsh just dumps water on himself

Does he do this when it's cold out too? Sounds miserable in a cold weather October game

Well, I guess I'm pleased it's just dumb not gross

I don’t love using Sale for the 9th, if that’s the plan. When you ask guys to do stuff they don’t normally do, it’s always a risk. But Iglesias for a third day in a row is also risky.

If Sale somehow blows this there will be a narrative

Even if he doesnt, if he cant pitch until game 3 thats a story. If he gets hit hard in game 2 thats a story.

Grady Little would get off the hook.

Just dumb

The managerial decision making in this series has been… interesting. You can't say that often anymore with the homogenized modern strategy.

Don Mattingly brings the juice!

Sale was throwing a sweeper before anyone knew what a sweeper was.

And that is that

Sale didn't need many pitches

cyall for the next ones

Can't believe we gotta wait til Saturday for more baseball

Thanks for doing this, guys.

Been a pleasure, everyone

excited for the DS!

Great to watch with y'all

See you everybody!

We know you have many choices when you watch baseball; we are glad you chose to spend it with us!


Job Posting: Kansas City Royals – Multiple Openings

Direct links to applications (please see job details below):

Analyst, Major League Pitching – Research & Development
Analyst, Player Development – Research & Development


Analyst, Major League Pitching – Research & Development

Location: Kauffman Stadium, One Royal Way, Kansas City, Missouri, United States of America

Job Summary: The Kansas City Royals are seeking a highly motivated and creative analyst to join the organization. Working under the direction of the Director of Research & Development, Christine Harris, the analyst will be fully integrated into the Major League clubhouse to provide resources, answers, and ideas to the Major League Pitching group. The successful candidate will combine analytical expertise and clear communication skills to translate baseball data into insights that give The Royals an edge when our pitchers step onto the mound.

Responsibilities & Duties:

  • Be a critical thinker to improve resources for pitching development and game planning strategies
  • Build reports to deliver digestible insights to coaches and players
  • Effectively communicate data with Major League coaches, staff, and players
  • Perform ad-hoc data analysis to answer questions that help inform pitching decisions
  • Maintain our processes and pipeline to deliver pitching reports and the related data daily

Requirements:

  • Record of published baseball research and or a portfolio of technical projects in any domain
  • Strong proficiency with SQL and R to query and analyze data from large data sets
  • Interpersonal and communication skills to seamlessly interact with front office, analysts, coaches, players, and other Baseball Operations personnel
  • Familiarity with modern pitching evaluation and pitching development metrics

Preferred Qualifications:

  • Software engineering background with the ability to design and build systems programmatically
  • Experience building models with large data sets to answer research questions
  • Experience as a player, coach, or staff member in a high level sports environment
  • Proficiency with HTML and CSS to create and maintain interactive reports or PDFs
  • 4-year degree or equivalent experience in computer science, mathematics, statistics, or related quantitative field

Position Details

  • This position requires full-time travel with the Major League team during Spring Training, regular season, and Postseason
  • Relocation to Kansas City is required in-season. However, there is no requirement to relocate full time.
    • If you relocate full time, you will receive a one-time moving stipend
    • If you maintain permanent residency outside of Kansas City, you will receive a monthly living stipend in-season
  • Travel to Arizona for Major League Spring Training is required
  • Minimal Travel Required in season

Physical Requirements:

  • Ability to lift items weighing as much as 15 pounds
  • Must be able to work in a seated position for majority of workday
  • Must be able to be productive utilizing a computer keyboard and telephone
  • Must be able to be productive in a work environment where the noise level can be high at times
  • Must be comfortable walking to navigate the facility to access the office, concourse, etc.
  • Must be able to work extended hours and/or weekends as required by deadlines and event scheduling

The physical demands described here are representative of those that may be met by an employee to successfully perform the essential functions of this job.

This role is a Full-Time, Exempt opportunity that is eligible for Company Benefits, 401K, and PTO. This role is expected to have a standard 40-hour work week.
We also afford equal employment opportunities to qualified individuals with a disability. For this reason, the Kansas City Royals will make reasonable accommodations for the known physical or mental limitations of an otherwise qualified individual with a disability who is an applicant consistent with its legal obligations to do so, including reasonable accommodations applicable local, state and / or federal law. As part of its commitment to make reasonable accommodations, the Club also wishes to participate in a timely, good faith, interactive process with a disabled applicant to determine effective reasonable accommodations, if any, which can be made in response to a request for accommodations. Applicants are invited to identify reasonable accommodations that can be made to assist them to perform the essential functions of the position they seek. Any applicant who requires an accommodation in order to perform the essential functions please inquire with Human Resources by email at humanresources@royals.com.

We are an equal opportunity employer, and all qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, age, sex, national origin, disability status, protected veteran status, or any other characteristic protected by law.

To Apply

To apply, please follow this link.


Analyst, Player Development – Research & Development

Location: Kauffman Stadium, One Royal Way, Kansas City, Missouri, United States of America

Job Summary: The Kansas City Royals are seeking a highly motivated and creative analyst to join the organization. Working under the direction of the Director of Research & Development, Christine Harris, the analyst will be fully integrated into the Minor League Player Development system to strengthen the resources used to maximize player performance. The successful candidate will combine analytical expertise and clear communication skills to translate baseball data into insights that give The Royals an edge when it comes to developing the best baseball talent in the game.

Responsibilities & Duties:

  • Oversee and run the Player Development pipeline that delivers data and reports to the organization on a daily basis
  • Be a critical thinker to improve resources for player development strategies
  • Build reports to deliver digestible insights to coaches and players
  • Effectively communicate data with Minor League coaches, staff, and players
  • Perform ad-hoc data analysis to answer questions that help inform player development decisions

Requirements:

  • Record of published baseball research and or a portfolio of technical projects in any domain
  • Strong proficiency with SQL and R to query and analyze data from large data sets
  • Interpersonal and communication skills to seamlessly interact with front office, analysts, coaches, players, and other Baseball Operations personnel
  • Familiarity with modern player evaluation and player development metrics

Preferred Qualifications:

  • Software engineering background with the ability to design and build systems programmatically
  • Experience building models with large data sets to answer research questions
  • Experience as a player, coach, or staff member in a high level sports environment
  • Familiarity with the landscape of Minor League Baseball and its teams and players
  • Proficiency with HTML and CSS to create and maintain interactive reports or PDFs
  • 4-year degree or equivalent experience in computer science, mathematics, statistics, or related quantitative field

Position Details

  • Relocation to Kansas City is strongly preferred but not required
  • Travel to Arizona for Minor League Spring Training is required
  • Potential for trips to Minor League Affiliates throughout the season

Physical Requirements:

  • Ability to lift items weighing as much as 15 pounds
  • Must be able to work in a seated position for majority of workday
  • Must be able to be productive utilizing a computer keyboard and telephone
  • Must be able to be productive in a work environment where the noise level can be high at times
  • Must be comfortable walking to navigate the facility to access the office, concourse, etc.
  • Must be able to work extended hours and/or weekends as required by deadlines and event scheduling

The physical demands described here are representative of those that may be met by an employee to successfully perform the essential functions of this job.

This role is a Full-Time, Exempt opportunity that is eligible for Company Benefits, 401K, and PTO. This role is expected to have a standard 40-hour work week.
We also afford equal employment opportunities to qualified individuals with a disability. For this reason, the Kansas City Royals will make reasonable accommodations for the known physical or mental limitations of an otherwise qualified individual with a disability who is an applicant consistent with its legal obligations to do so, including reasonable accommodations applicable local, state and / or federal law. As part of its commitment to make reasonable accommodations, the Club also wishes to participate in a timely, good faith, interactive process with a disabled applicant to determine effective reasonable accommodations, if any, which can be made in response to a request for accommodations. Applicants are invited to identify reasonable accommodations that can be made to assist them to perform the essential functions of the position they seek. Any applicant who requires an accommodation in order to perform the essential functions please inquire with Human Resources by email at humanresources@royals.com.

We are an equal opportunity employer, and all qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, age, sex, national origin, disability status, protected veteran status, or any other characteristic protected by law.

To Apply

To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Kansas City Royals.


Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 10/1/26

It may be a chat! Who knows?

Hi Dan, in a league that uses BA, HR, RBI, SB but not runs scored, how much would you push down players who hit first or second in their lineup versus 3/4/5? I’m thinking Witt, Wood, Chourio and similar players rated as first rounders for 2027 but who seem to get a good amount of value from run scored; i know I should move them down a little bit relative to the big power hitters with higher RBI totals, I’m just not sure how much.

Unless you think they're going to be knocked down in the order, don't push them down at all! If you do think, mentally knock off 15-20ish PAs per slot.

What do you think Padres do well?

The team is aggressive, and do well at identifying what the problem is, even if they're not always great a solving them. They're excellent at finding raw reliever types and making them effective. Those are the two biggest

Phil Castellini said this morning, "we need to let the baseball folks run the baseball team" in so many words. I'll believe it when i see it.

Do you think any of the teams with a significant playoff drought will make it next year?

The Pirates *could*. And I think if the Nats had a couple big things go their way in FA, I think they could ahve enough pitching to be at least interesting

What happened with the Cubs? Offense went so cold.

Sometimes team just suck in two games

The Dodgers had 14 independent losing streaks this year (two games or more). And all of them were to teams worse than them, naturally

It just comes down to who executed that day, and it's not predictive or meaningful in any sense. Just embrace the chaos

Dan, is it too late to make ZiPS project the Padres to be favored over the Brewers? I worry Pat Murphy is running out of motivational material.

Model changes would not be a great idea mid playoffs!

But a good leader can find something to hate

What’s up with the reluctance to label anything as an error. Thinking specifically of the Harper and Alvarez misplays.

To be an error, either a grounder has to go through your legs, a lazy throw has to be horribly off, or you have to do something that looks like a vaudeville sketch

Hey Dan. What do you make of the starting rotations for the Brewers-Padres series? Seems like Miz being able to start twice is a huge advantage for MIL, while the Padres lack of rotation depth is a negative as these series get longer and longer.

It's very helpful, and you'll see it in the projections!

What percentile would CWS beating LAD in the World Series be in terms of all time sports upsets?

Basically, no baseball playoff series could possibly even be anywhere high on a list

What are your thoughts on how Boston handled its SP in the two games?

I didn't always like who they CHOSE for relief, but I don't have any problems with the decisions themselves. I know Gray is unhappy, but his velocity was dropping quickly and his command was clearly off

And it's kinda hard to get too upset about individual pitching decisions when your team scored two runs in two games anyway

A man a Dan a chat a cat eating Arbys, ybragnitaetacatahcanadanama

Are the Red Sox that bad or are the Yankees playing to their talent level finally? I know Boston can't hit but they supposedly have a good bullpen

I mean, the Yankees are a really good team.

If you ran the Cubs, what are the 2-3 moves you’d make to close the gap with Milwaukee? I’m through with the Jed/Carter regime; what would you and ZiPS do?

Really think you need to go all-in on top pitching as much as you can . It's fine to have value guys, but the Cubs had too many value guys.

Do you think the Yankees roster construction for the short series is the way teams should go in the future, 16 p9 players and 10 pitchers?

I wholeheartedly agree with Baumann's piece. As long as you have an arm who can be the mopup dude if things get out of control, you don't need to carry a billion pitchers for three games.

Do you think the way the Yankees constructed their roster is how teams should do it for a short series? 16 position players and only 10 pitchers?

I assume Brandon Lowe's All-Star–worthy season has bumped his projections (which were pretty bad), but by how much? Is there any justification for giving him even a medium-sized contract?

Quite a bit – he's a 3.something WAR guy for next year in ZiPS. Nothing crazy, but he should get a pretty good deal

How does ZiPS react to Ty France's season? He achieved something like his 99th percentile outcome from the preseason projection. How many other cases has there been with such a high achievement compared to expectations?

97th in ZiPS! And yeahyou expect like 60 guys to do that in a year, though some will be harder to tell because they 97th percentile still sucks or they're in the minors

I'm guessing he'll be up to a 105-110 wRC+ in the projections?

Should Cole or Rodon start game 1? Does Zips think it matter

Order tends not to really matter so much

follow up on the angels team: what do you think is the most realistic pathway Kroenke will take? personally i think he'll push hard for skubal

Honestly? I don't have the slightest idea what the Angels end up doing

Obviously baseball player evaluation is hard but watching the Yankees series it came to mind that none of Warren, Rice, Schlittler, or Jones we're really ranked in Top 100 lists (Jones was in and out a few times). What was missed with these players that have become big contributors that wasn't seen by people who scout these players?

Honestly, I'm not sure there's something to *do*, though it's always important to keep your mind open to changing your mind on a player. I do think sometimes the higher floor guys without some real standout tool tend to be underrated

Does Zips this Ben Rice will end his career as the best Rice ever? Or is Jim Rice's crown safe?

I think he likely had too late a start to end up at Jim Rice territory. I'll also say that Jim Rice vs. Sam Rice isn't obvious

What trade do you think Red Sox will make with either the Cardinals/Nationals this offseason?

I could totally see Duran end up with the Cardinals

Abstract question about "reverse replacement level": what would production look like if you took a league-average-ish starter (say Kyle Leahy or Alec Burleson) and sent them down to play a full season at each MiLB level (AAA down to FCL)? Besides the hitters probably just getting pitched around, would they put up video game stats or "just" peak SEC-type lines?

Think about 20 points of wRC+ higher than in the majors or so

I need the White Sox to keep winning just to see Mune's postgame interviews.

Dan! I’m sad! The Cubs looked like absolute pop on toast for the last month and then went out with a whimper! HELP MAKE THE SAD GO AWAY

You literally have a dice roll in your handle!

Why was Dustin Harris hitting second last night? Also, who is Dustin Harris?

I will note here that ZiPS has Harris with the with the 3rd best OBP against righties on the Padres roster, at .330 (.350 for Tatis, .332 for France)

that was supposed to say “poop on toast,” fyi

Pop on toast sounds pretty bad too. I like coke and I like toast, but a piece of toast that has been soaked in Coke sounds pretty gross. Also, you're saying pop instead of soda, which is also gross

Related FA question: if a guy is an FA when the CBA expires, could a team sign them to a "minor league" contract with a gazillion-dollar signing bonus and let them play at AAA until the lockout ends?

By my understanding, a free agent who is a free agent under the terms of the prior CBA is still considered part of the "MLB Player" bargaining unit

but I think TECHNICALLY if he's signed to the deal BEFORE the lockout, then he's not part of the bargaining unit? But I don't think anyone's done that for obvious awkward reasons

But if, say, Skubal signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers with a $300 million signing bonus, I imagine there would be huge controversy that neither side wants to deal with. Nor do I think a player would do quite that situation if they're a big name

How much better would the Ray’s WS odds be if they hadn’t randomly traded Lowe and Montgomery for garbage?

Honestly, probably marginal

What's your offseason plan to get the Os in the thick of the division race if you're in charge?

SPEND ON PITCHING

Ha, I never noticed that about my handle. My name is Warren and the prequels came out when I was first dating my ex. Her brother was 12 and he started calling me War2D2 because it sounded like R2-D2 and he was, as I said, 12.

Honestly, I thought War was for baseball and 2D2 was a joke about rolling two two-sided dice

What is the current "market inefficiency" that savvy teams take advantage of that we might not always think about?

I think there's still a definable difference between teams at identifying OKish players with upside. The Brewers rule this in a way that even the Rays don't

re: Subs pitching. Value guys are a lovely floor. It's great to have a roster full of guys who aren't holes. But at some point you have to have someone step up and perform as a star. It's a gamble, for sure, and an expensive one. But the best way to win that gamble is to sign guys who are already stars.

How does ZiPS feel about the 2027 White Sox as currently constructed? I assume it has a relatively high opinion of Vargas, but I doubt they're getting 8 WAR out of Meidroth and Peters again, and I feel like their rotation is very weak. Are they still tracking like a bottom~10 team next year?

ZiPS think they're OKish, like 78 to 83 wins or so, but that's good enough to be interesting in the AL Central

The White Sox have done a really good job at throwing shit against the wall and seeing what sticks. That's one of the advantages bad teams have that good teams just aren't going to match. No contending team can really afford to sign a guy from Banana Ball and see if he works out in the majors

What does ideal roster construction for the Division Series look like? 14 hitters, 12 pitchers? Same for the CS and WS?

Probalby somewhere around that. I wish long relievers were still a thing. I think every team should maintain a roster that allows them to complete any non-extra inning game with two pitchers.

I’m from Chicago, they always say “pop” there but for whatever reason my family said “soda” or “coke” even though we were a Pepsi family. Doubly weird because my family was in Chicago for generations, and my dad was from LA.

Pepsi eww. My girlfriend had to ban me from shaking my fist at Pepsi trucks when we were in public

One of my favorite things to do is ask for a Coke at a restaurant, and when the waiter/waitress asks "is Pepsi OK?" just say "No" and let the awkward silence persist for a few seconds.

(I don't feel guilty doing this because I'm actually always super nice to staff every other interaction and my standard tip is 25%)

Have you watched the show "Pantheon" on Netflix. It's really good

I have not. Truth is, my scripted television/movie watching is far smaller than the average American

For one, baseball takes up most of the screens seven months a year, and I will generally play a game or watch a game stream before watching most TV shows.

My question about Cole and Rodon was based on the presumption Schlittler starts came 2 and Fried game 3, and one of Cole or Rodon might not start at all

I *think* ZiPS will generally prefer Rodon slightly then, but I'm not really positive until I run it

With the Blue Jays losing several notable names to free agency (e.g., Springer, Bieber), and seeing some returnees from long-term injury (e.g., Santander, Ponce, Barger), what's the ZiPS prognosis for 2027? I'm assuming that they sign a SP, as well as one or two position players with SLG upside, but it would be interesting to see the positions at which your projections have the biggest potential marginal gains.

ZiPS does think they need some addition for the holes; right now they'd project as .500y

Thoughts on Marlins SP as RP during bullpen days?

I don't have a problem with it. If soemone is throwing that day, I have zero issue with them making short appearances. Though you kinda want the players to be OK with it, even if they don't technically have a say in the matter

My handle is also kind of a joke because irl I’m 6’5” and R2-D2…is not.

Denzel Clarke 2027 over/under .650 OPS? And if under, what does that mean for his playing time?

Amusingly, ZiPS has him right at .651 OPS. So not taking an over under yet!

RE: Marlins SP throwing during bullpen days, is there any scientific evidence behind the benefit of bullpen days? I've often wondered if the current recovery cycle of a SP is contributing to arm blowouts, but I have no idea how one would go about trying to quantify that when there's basically no counterfactual data to compare with

There's no real data to work with, as far as I know

i was never been much of a soda person, but ive recently fallen into a Dr Pepper craze

Dr. Pepper is interesting since it's hard to figure out what it actually is. Though Dr. Pepper knockoffs have done a good job so someone's figured it out

The best thing about Dr. PEpper is the name gives generic Dr. Pepper room to be creative

I *am* told, by the way, that we'll be able to drop images directly into here at some point

To hijack a Mitch Hedberg joke, the doctorate is unnecessary because I would have drank that from a Mr. Pepper.

At least most other sodas (not Coke) you can kinda identify what it's supposed to be. Like Sprite is lemon and lime (though the recipe is more than that, also Hedberg). And Mountain Dew is vaguely citrus + phlegm

Generic Dr. Peppers do a way better job than generic Cokes. I can clock generic Coke easily, and I can tell how close a Coke is to the date on the bottom of the can. You can tell just by smelling – Coke uses a lot of aromatic oils. A Coke that is 10 months away from date (usually the freshest coke you can get) will smell of citrus oil, vanilla, and cinnamon, with other vague warm spice notes

Yeah, I personally only drink Coke (to the extent I ever drink soda). But my family was crazy for Pepsi, my grandma would drink it with breakfast.

What is Dan having for lunch today, and how much of it is going to be paid as tax to the cats?

I had some Sam's Club General Tso's for lunch. The cats did not get any. None of my current cats are into human food, though Luna will try and stick her paw in your drink out of curiosity.

Luckily, since I mostly drink out of deli containers, I keep a lid on my desk to put on my drink if she's visiting me in my office

I don't like doing dishes, most of my dishes stay in the cabinet. While I use normal utensils, I like drinking out of deli containers and using paper plates.

(I do have a dishwasher)

I tend to accumulate desk forks though

I'll usually keep using the same fork. I'm kinda gross if other people aren't around

Why do you think models (Stuff+, Pitchingbot) think Cavalli is just average but his underlying metrics show him to be elite?

I think it's one of those things where we have to see more, even though this is a copout answer

Mr Pibb > Dr Pepper

Hot topic for sure right now…what should the Cardinals do at 3B for 2027?

Feels like something that would be a trade

Congrats! You’re the new Mariners manager. What’s your first question or move?

"How did I get this job without interviewing for it or expressing interest? Is this even legal?"

I'm kinda curious how long they go with Kerr

though that seems like a lame interesting thing

What are you looking forward to most during the Braves/Phillies game this evening?

Oh, I didn't publish the q

Also curious if the Braves can ensure no righties against Schwarber/Harper

also theres a bunch of james acaster jokes on dr. pepper. "it tastes like a sexy battery", "can says mixed fruit flavor, im not stupid, i know what fruit tastes like. ive never sent a fruit salad for being too dr. peppery"

Mr. Pibb? Dude doesn't even have his degree…

If you think Mountain Dew tastes like phlegm, I would hate to hear your opinion of most energy drinks

energy drinks are worse

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EkeJQ0IuXfE for reference

Which members of the upcoming 2026 free agency class are flying a bit more under the radar than you would expect, given their underlying data and your projections? Conversely, who seems like an unnecessary overpay risk?

Suzuki maybe? Just feels like he's not talked about a lot relative to his quality

Which MLB player is the Dr Pepper-est of the league? The one you can just can't figure out what he is. For me it might be Francisco Alvarez.

Arraez. He does something weird for 2026 players. And you're just not sure if he IS good or not, since his defensive numbers have been all over the place

this begs the question, is Dr. Pepper the official soda of comedians? whats the official soda of baseball writers?

Diet Coke maybe? A lot of guys don't leave the press box at all, and pound Diet Cokes from the machine that's usually there and available

Now me, I tend to venture out and shotgun a few beers, sometimes with random fans that recognize my name from my badge

Oh, the only cat that was really into human food was Galileo. I swear he could smell if you were thinking about food. He's the one I'd get Arby's for after every vet visit and I'd just hand him the sandwich while in the drive-thru window

One of my strongest sense-memories is of being about 8yo on a family vacation and having Dr. Pepper and saltwater taffy both for the first time. I still like the good doctor, but taffy is unwelcome in my home.

I don't like super chewy things. For some reason I've always had kind of a weak jaw muscle and if I eat a ton of chewy thing, my jaw will be sore for a day or two

Do you think the Cardinals make a play for some actual pitching, or be too afraid/cautious after the new CBA?

I think they'll be conservative

I just took a peek at the FA list. My goodness that's some soda on toast.

with the FA class being somewhat stinky, do you expect more trades to happen this winter than usual?

Yup

I've been asked to bring back the Lightning Round, so I'll do that today. I'll answer what's left in thq queue, but OTHERWISE, I will answer anything, even if I don't know the answer. Except politics and excessively ipersonal things

How will Zips grade Foster Griffith this offseason? Like the NATS stud or the Giardian not so great?

He'll be a useful mid-rotating inning eater probably

Nats would benefit re-signing

Will we have any awards surprises this year? Based on all the inside information twitter thinks you have, you should be counting final ballots by now?

I count the ballots? Jack O'Connell I believe has the access to the formsite submissions

I wonder if someething happened to Jack suddenly, if theres' anyone with access to the awards. Would we have to revote?

re:Cavalli when I see a pitcher who seems to be outperforming his models I generally assume it's something to do with sequencing or deception. Stuff that the bots don't measure so well. You know, "pitching" v "throwing"

Usually more time irons things out nicely!

Meh-plus

What does ZIPs think of Lawrence Butler for 2027v

OK, seems to be working now?

I think it's working now?

averageish

Game One was Austin Riley's redemption of a bad season, Two was Bohm's. By that measure, which sob story is most likely going to swing Game Three? If this isn't the setting for an Aaron Nola CGSO I don't know what is…

oops sorry was getting 500 errors

Red Sox probably already project for around 90 wins in 2027 even with departing FA, right? Very confused about all of this dooming from fans.

probably a few wins under

I've been following Suzuki since he was with Hiroshima, and thought his underlying numbers would translate well to MLB. In other words, not particularly Tsutsugo-esque. However, I do worry about the aging curve for a 32yo corner outfielder who could end up getting nine figures.

yeah, but that's the case for most 32 yo cof

who is your favorite power ranger?

second Black Ranger because it's Johnny Yong Bosch who voices Joshua in the Trails series

Should Mets release Semien?

I would

Does your girlfriend know what you do for a living? Always curious how fangraphs-y writers explain what they do.

Oh, she understands. She's tagged along to a few FG things. But she couldn't tell you much about baseball or what I do beyong writing plus numbers.

I’m really hoping “soda on toast” becomes a thing in SzimChats

Towson High dedicated Randy Dase Field last week. A true legend! He was one of my LPP teachers too, and let's just say he viewed himself primarily as Coach Dase lol. Still, a giant and a worthy tribute.

I had Mr. Dase for 10th-grade social studies

I sent him an email congratulating him when he retired

have you been following pro wrestling at all lately?

I'm always behind in the regular season

What can I do with sardines? They're supposed to be one of the healthiest fish for you, but struggling to come up with stuff besides "eat them plain."

buttered toast

I used to drink Mountain Dew: Code Red when it came out (I was in college), and people would ask what it tasted like. My standard answer was, 'red.' Nobody ever disagreed.

It's abotu accurate

Thanks for a great year Dan! Any non-baseball plans or goals for the offseason you would like to share

I need to clean out the storage room under the stairs

and I'm thinking of getting a smaller server case for one of my servers, like a jonsbo n4

What are your instructions for the fangraphs staff playoff predictions? Is it "try to come up with a feasible scenario" or "your life depends on the outcome, who do you think wins each round?" Or is it left up to the individual

"make your predictions"

Dan, now that the White Sox blew up your Astros prediction, you want to revisit the Cleveland ALDS? The White Sox able to squeeze their pitching though with the extra off day?

well yeah, since I had an impossible task!

Dr Pepper has a strong Chicago connection (with the Official Drink fo the Bears and Soldier Field). Also, lots of neighborhood Pizza Places in Chicago do RC Cola.

after the boston beatdown, seems like the yankees are gonna sleep walk into the WS. I just don't trust TB in the playoffs

I certainly hope Suzuki flies under the radar, the Cubs need to prioritize resigning him in my opinion. I worry he gets priced out of their cheapo owner’s range and they wind up bringing back the smoldering husk of Ian Happ and calling it good.

It's working now!

Parker Messick just confirmed as Guardians G1 starter over Williams, thoughts?

Don't think it's terrible

Do you think there's still much edge in projection systems for fantasy, or just a disadvantage if you aren't using them? I've done a bit of work on team wins projection trying a different systematic approach than anything up at FG, got down to MAE 7.51 wins, and figured I'd just be better off using a composite of the major public systems in the end.

I think everyone uses them, but I think HOW you use them will seaprate you

do you have any other blog subscriptions? like, what else do you read besides fangraphs?

Well, first you have the papers and large sites (I subscribe to NYT and WaPo)

I subscribe to BP

substackwise, I subscribe to Sheehan, Carroll, Greenberg for baseball. For non-baseball, I sub to Yglesias, Silver, Fifth Column, and Central Air

When we say mid rotation innings water, how much war is that? Ordinally, is that a top 50 pitcher in baseball? Top 100?

2ish

Boil spaghetti, drain it but leave it kind of wet, dump a ton of olive oil, shaved parmesan, lots of lemon, and a tin of sardines and toss it violently about. It’s great.

Which Sibelius symphony should I start with?

1, then 2, then 5

Though START with the various symphonic poems with Sibelius

And on that note, I won't test my luck and try to end this chat without anything crashing


Rubbing Some Dirt on It Isn’t Working for the Orioles

Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

When is an injury so bad that it requires time off? That depends on all sorts factors. How badly does it hurt? How badly does the team need that player’s production, and how much would playing through it inhibit that production? Would playing through it keep it from healing, exacerbate it, or lead to other injuries? How big is the drop-off between the injured player and whoever would be taking their place?

When is the right time to return from an injury? At any given time in the spring, summer, and fall, we can point to a dozen players whose performance is suffering as they return from an IL stint. Should they have spent more time on the shelf? Nobody knows this for sure, least of all those of us who are watching from the outside. Players see their performance drop off when they return from injuries all the time. Sometimes they returned too early, but sometimes no amount of rest or recuperation would have allowed them to avoid it. Maybe it’s just the unavoidable cost of catching back up to game speed.

Late on the evening of September 25, after the Orioles’ disappointing 2026 season had come to its abrupt, merciful end, Gunnar Henderson revealed to reporters that he’d spent half of it playing through a right wrist injury. “He declined to share the exact details,” wrote The Baltimore Banner’s Andy Kostka, “but said he will not require any surgery.” Even without details, we can draw some obvious inferences. The injury was severe enough to linger for at least three months. That Henderson mentioned it at all indicates that the injury was significant enough to impair his performance, a notion supported by the fact that manager Craig Albernaz “said there were daily check-ins to assess his availability.” Read the rest of this entry »


Padres Grind Through Cubs, Advance to NLDS

Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

On Wednesday night, the San Diego Padres eliminated the Chicago Cubs from the playoffs with a 4-1 win. A sold-out, frenzied crowd watched the Friars get to Kevin Gausman early, scoring two runs in the second after a double from Ty France, singles from Jackson Merrill and Xander Bogaerts, and a sacrifice fly from Ethan Salas. A two-run homer from pinch-hitter Gavin Sheets in the fourth put San Diego up by three, and from there, the Cubs barely threatened. It was just the latest big moment in a summer full of them for the Padres: A team that saw its playoff odds drop to 7% in late July will now head to Milwaukee for the NLDS.

When you think about this generation of the San Diego Padres, a number of descriptors may spring to mind. “Exciting” works, for all the stars they’ve rostered and playoff runs they’ve made. “Unpredictable” captures the spirit of a front office bold enough to empty the farm year after year, postseason probability be damned. “Competitive” — you heard all those F-bombs during the game last night, yes? — applies, as might “brash,” particularly if you’re from Los Angeles or Phoenix.

But watching this game, I kept thinking about how poised they looked. It’s an unfamiliar feeling watching this group: Fernando Tatis Jr. is many wonderful things, but there’s very little mellow to him or the team he headlines. In an emotional game, though, which is exactly how they looked, and nobody epitomized that more than San Diego’s young catcher. Read the rest of this entry »


Yankees Bomb Red Sox Out of the Bronx, Postseason

Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

NEW YORK — Lefty? Righty? The platoon-heavy Yankees will beat your frontline starter regardless of handedness, and their frontline starter will shut your offense down. That was the case, at least, in this year’s Wild Card Series between the Yankees and the Red Sox. After fireballing righty Cam Schlittler overwhelmed Boston in Tuesday night’s opener, lefty Max Fried stifled the Sox for six innings on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a lineup stacked with eight lefty hitters — and again, no Aaron Judge — pressed Red Sox manager Chad Tracy to pull starter Sonny Gray after just 70 pitches, trailing 1-0. As on Tuesday night, the Yankees broke the game open against Boston’s lefty relievers. New York cruised to a 9-2 victory and a series sweep.

As he did in Game 1 of the 2025 Wild Card Series against the Red Sox, Fried pitched brilliantly. He held Boston scoreless through the first five innings on just two hits before allowing a solo home run to Willson Contreras with two outs in the sixth. It wasn’t just Boston’s first home run of the series, it was the team’s first run in a playoff game since the sixth inning of Game 2 of last year’s series, a span of 26 2/3 innings. Fried struck out six while walking one; though he got just nine whiffs (18.8%) and a 23.5% called strike and whiff rate, he allowed just three hard-hit balls and an average exit velocity of 85.3 mph. He threw 98 pitches, and when the Yankees broke through for six runs in the bottom of the sixth inning, it was an easy call for manager Aaron Boone to go to his bullpen. Read the rest of this entry »