Tucker Trade Brings Astros Back to Earth, Wakes Cubs From Hibernation

Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

When Juan Soto signed with the Mets this week, there were four parties who should’ve been celebrating: First, the Mets, who nabbed the biggest on-base threat since Barry Bonds, and in the process got to blow raspberries at their old money neighbors. Second, Soto himself, who was already grotesquely wealthy but is now due the kind of lucre that will allow him to oppress multitudes if he so chooses. Third, Scott Boras, who in addition to being paid a handsome commission proved that he still had his mojo after a mortifying 2023-24 offseason.

The fourth winner: Kyle Tucker. The “next-best thing” to a 26-year-old free agent with a .421 career OBP, to someone who is projected by ZiPS to accumulate more than 100 WAR, is… well there’s no such animal. But Tucker is as close as you’ll get these days. If Soto is worth $51 million a year, what is Tucker worth? I don’t know. Neither do the Houston Astros, but they’re clearly not interested in finding out.

On Friday, Houston traded the presumptive top free agent in next year’s class to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski, and third base prospect Cam Smith. Read the rest of this entry »


Yankees, Brewers Swap Fun All-Star Pitchers, Everyone Wins

Benny Sieu-Imagn Images and Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

It’s a ritual as old as time. The Brewers develop an intriguing young player into an All-Star, and a fun one at that. Next, that player approaches free agency – that’s how time works. The Brewers then trade that player to a contending team, getting back a few players with multiple years of team control. Finally, the Brewers develop those players into stars, spin the wheel again, and the band plays on. Today’s edition: Milwaukee traded Devin Williams to the Yankees in exchange for Nestor Cortes and infield prospect Caleb Durbin, as Jeff Passan first reported.

Williams is the rare pitcher who isn’t even as famous as his best pitch. His screwball/changeup hybrid is nicknamed The Airbender, and it’s been making major leaguers look like overmatched kids for years. On the back of that pitch and a plus fastball, he’s compiled a career ERA of 1.83 over five-plus seasons of dominance. His 39.4% career strikeout rate reads like a typo. He rose to prominence during the 2020 season, and he’s been the second-best reliever in baseball since then, trailing only Emmanuel Clase.

It doesn’t matter what you call the pitch; Williams’ results speak for themselves. “Changeup-first dominant closer” only sounds fluky until you look at the raw data. He misses more bats than Josh Hader. He might even be better than his run-prevention numbers would suggest, because the runs he gives up come in bunches. In 2023, for example, he gave up 10 earned runs all year, and four were in a single game. The upshot: He’s first among relievers in win probability added by a ton, because a truly outrageous number of his games end in scoreless innings. He’s not Mariano Rivera, but he might be the closest thing in today’s game: an automatic ninth inning.
Read the rest of this entry »


Matrix Reloaded: December 13, 2024

Brad Penner-Imagn Images

DALLAS — What a week, huh? Juan Soto sparked the Winter Meetings on Sunday night when he agreed to sign with the Mets for 15 years, $765 million, some incentives, and one complementary suite instead of returning to the Yankees. The Yankees then pivoted on Tuesday and signed Max Fried to the largest contract ever for a lefty pitcher. Willy Adames signed with the Giants for way more than anyone expected. Oh, and the White Sox got in on the fun, too!

The Matrix was popping off, so much so that I couldn’t stop myself from pulling out my computer during dinner to update the Soto signing. As the great television detective Adrian Monk would say, “Here’s what happened.”

Free Agent Signings

Mets Sign Juan Soto for 15 Years, $765 Million

Dan Szymborski’s InstaGraphs of the Deal
Ben Clemens’ Write-Up of the Deal
Updated Roster Projection
Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Mets

The outfield in Queens would appear to be solidified now, with Brandon Nimmo in left, Soto in right, and Tyrone Taylor and Jose Siri splitting time in center. DH, for now at least, looks like Starling Marte’s job, but the Mets certainly are not done spending and could look to upgrade their offense here. They are still very much in the market to re-sign Pete Alonso, who would likely be their everyday first baseman but could also see more time at DH depending on what other moves they make. Third baseman Mark Vientos has made strides as a defender, but he could slide over to first base or get more starts at DH. The Mets could also look to sign someone for the DH job outright. For example, Joc Pederson would fit well as a platoon partner for Marte.

Effect on Other Teams

Many of the deals below wouldn’t have happened this week if Soto were still on the free agent market. The Yankees certainly wouldn’t have signed Fried to his contract if Soto had accepted their $760 million offer, and the Mets very well could have spent some of the Soto money elsewhere. The cascading effects of an offseason are on display most prominently during the Winter Meetings, with quick responses needed lest you lose out on a player.

Effect on Similar Players

Similar players? What similar players?

Yankees Sign Max Fried for Eight Years, $218 Million

Dan Szymborski’s InstaGraphs of the Deal
Jay Jaffe’s Write-Up of the Deal
Updated Roster Projection
Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Yankees

The Yankees were aggressive in turning to Fried after losing Soto, and they now have a surplus of starting pitchers, at least in quantity if not aptitude. Gerrit Cole, Fried, and Carlos Rodón will fill out the top three spots in the rotation, with Luis Gil, Marcus Stroman, and Clarke Schmidt battling for the last two as of Friday afternoon. The Yankees could use one of them in a trade for either Cody Bellinger of the Cubs or Nolan Arenado of the Cardinals to improve their offense. Earlier Friday, the Yankees dealt another of their capable starters, Nestor Cortes, to the Brewers for one of the best relievers in baseball, Devin Williams (more on this trade later). If New York does decide to trade another starter, Gil (four years of club control) and Schmidt (three years) would be more valuable to other teams than Stroman.

Effect on Other Teams

Per the New York Post’s Joel Sherman, the Rangers and Red Sox were the other two teams in on Fried until the very end. The Rangers quickly pivoted to bringing back Nathan Eovaldi (more on him below), and the Red Sox counterpunched with their trade for Garrett Crochet. According to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, despite acquiring Crochet, the Red Sox are “still exploring” upgrades to their rotation, including Corbin Burnes.

Fried’s former team, the Braves, remain in the market for starting pitching, though it doesn’t look like they ever made much of an effort to retain the lefty. They haven’t had any known interest in Burnes, either, and they might even be too far apart from Charlie Morton, who should be modestly priced. Perhaps they reach for the bottom of the shelf for an arm like Martín Pérez, Spencer Turnbull, Joe Ross, or Patrick Corbin to add needed depth behind their solid front three of Chris Sale, Reynaldo López, and Spencer Schwellenbach.

Effect on Similar Players

Burnes and agent Scott Boras have to be ecstatic after seeing Fried’s contract, as the lefty beat his median prediction (six years, $156 million) by nearly 40%. The same bump for Burnes’ median prediction (seven years, $217 million) would have him signing for over $300 million. Boras may well shoot for that number on a nine-year deal for Burnes, who’s a year younger than Fried.

Giants Sign Willy Adames for Seven Years, $182 Million

Michael Baumann’s Write-Up of the Deal
Updated Roster Projection
Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Giants

The Giants needed a shortstop, and they couldn’t have done any better than Adames. His defense weirdly took a step back in 2024, but considering his performance before that, along with his reputation, I believe his struggles to be more of a one-season blip rather than the start of a troubling trend. While new president of baseball operations Buster Posey may make moves to improve the San Francisco offense — LaMonte Wade Jr. and Mike Yastrzemski could reportedly be had in trades — it’s a deep enough group. Upgrading the Giants’ pitching is a more pressing concern.

Effect on Other Teams

If you wanted to sign a starting shortstop to be in the Opening Day lineup, you only had one great option, and now you have zero. Ha-Seong Kim has a ton of upside, but his timetable is unclear after shoulder surgery. (He’s expected to miss at least April.) Jose Iglesias had excellent results bouncing around the infield for the Mets, but his xBA and xwOBA do not inspire confidence that he’ll keep it up. Paul DeJong has some pop and plays solid defense, but he is extremely streaky. All three of those guys will have no problem getting big league deals, but they’re not Adames.

Effect on Similar Players

There are no free agent shortstops of Adames’ caliber, so those available at the position shouldn’t look at his contract and say, “Hey, great for me! I want that!” Alex Bregman, on the other hand, can use Adames as a decent measuring stick. Bregman is two years older than Adames and plays a less premium position, but they had similar seasons on offense (Adames, 119 wRC+; Bregman, 118), and Bregman’s had a better career peak (though that can only take him so far).

Adames’ AAV but with five years instead of seven gives Bregman a solid minimum to target ($130 million). Fortunately for him, he’s already got an offer from his former team with an extra year tacked on. It stands to reason, then, that Bregman might well be shooting for Adames’ exact deal if not better, and you better believe Boras is going to try his hardest to get his client $200 million.

Rangers Re-Sign Nathan Eovaldi for Three Years, $75 Million

Davy Andrews’ Write-Up of the Deal
Updated Roster Projection
Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Rangers

Eovaldi adds much-needed stability to a Rangers rotation that currently features Jacob deGrom, Jon Gray, Cody Bradford, and Tyler Mahle, who combined for just 38 big league starts last year to Eovaldi’s 29. Kumar Rocker, Dane Dunning, Emiliano Teodo, and Jack Leiter are next in line, so perhaps the Rangers feel they’ve got enough to make it work and can now turn their attention to their bullpen.

Effect on Other Teams

The Braves were the other team with significant buzz regarding Eovaldi, though they haven’t shown much willingness to spend this offseason, so I doubt they came anywhere near the Rangers’ offer. Reuniting with Morton or signing another stable veteran like Lance Lynn or Kyle Gibson feels more in line with where the Braves are at right now, especially with Spencer Strider working his way back from internal brace surgery.

Effect on Similar Players

They’re both encumbered by qualifying offers, but Nick Pivetta and Sean Manaea are both roughly in the same tier as Eovaldi, whose median contract prediction was two years for $45 million. Considering Eovaldi garnered a surprising third year, it isn’t out of the question that Pivetta would get a four-year deal. Meanwhile, Manaea looks to be in good position to beat Eovaldi’s AAV on a three- or four-year deal, with nine figures well within the realm of possibility.

Orioles Sign Tyler O’Neill (Three Years, $48.5 Million, with post-2025 Opt Out) and Gary Sánchez (One Year, $8.5 Million)

Davy Andrews’ Write-Up of the Deal
Updated Roster Projection
Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Orioles

If the Orioles make any further changes to their offense, they’ll likely have to subtract before they add. Heston Kjerstad looks plenty deserving of playing time, but he’s not currently on the projected roster. Trading either Ryan O’Hearn or Ryan Mountcastle would make sense, and it isn’t out of the question that they could trade Cedric Mullins — with Colton Cowser more than capable of handling center field — to free up a spot for Kjerstad in the corner outfield. Catcher is all set with Sánchez joining Adley Rutschman, eliminating the possibility of reunion with James McCann.

Effect on Other Teams

O’Neill’s injury history likely gave some teams pause and surely dampened his earnings, but on a rate basis, no free agent bat showed power as prodigious. In fact, he was fourth in the league in AB/HR among all 20-homer hitters. That’s not to say the options are sparse, though. Teoscar Hernández is coming off a fuller season than O’Neill, and historically he’s been much healthier. Anthony Santander, who almost surely won’t return to the Orioles with O’Neill in the fold, has big pop from both sides. They’ll cost more than O’Neill, who was in something of a class of his own among outfielders regarding his contract predictions. (O’Neill’s median prediction was three years and $40 million, which he beat handily, not to mention the opt-out.)

As for the catching market, it’s now pretty bare, with Carson Kelly reportedly closing in on a deal with the Cubs. Yasmani Grandal, Elias Díaz, and McCann are the three catchers left who have at least decent odds of securing an MLB deal.

Effect on Similar Players

While Santander and Hernández are in another class of player and contract prediction, they still both serve to benefit from O’Neill’s deal being better than expected, with an opt-out to boot. It might be tough for Santander to beat his median prediction of five years and $100.5 million by much, if at all, but Hernández ought to be aiming higher than three years, $70.5 million after seeing what O’Neill got. Jurickson Profar is another bat out there, and while he’s quite different from O’Neill, his contract predictions were similar. He may be able to get a fourth year or at least a heftier AAV on a three-year deal.

Mets Sign Clay Holmes for Three Years, $38 Million

Jake Mailhot’s Write-Up of the Deal
Updated Roster Projection
Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Mets

The Mets lost three starting pitchers to free agency, with Luis Severino shipping off to Sacramento and Manaea and Jose Quintana still on the open market. They’ve filled two of those spots by signing Frankie Montas and Holmes, who is expected to transition from high-leverage reliever to starter. That leaves Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Paul Blackburn, and Tylor Megill as the only other healthy pitchers on the 40-man who started games this past season. Adding Holmes shouldn’t and won’t keep the Mets out of the starting pitching market, especially because they could use a six-man rotation to accommodate Senga’s schedule and limit Holmes’ innings. As noted on the Matrix in blue cells, the Mets have expressed interest in virtually every starter still out there.

Effect on Other Teams

Holmes’ pending conversion to the rotation puts teams in a weird spot; before he signed, some clubs considered the move as well, while others preferred to keep him in the bullpen. That means there aren’t many clean pivots for teams because their needs vary. The one comparable pitcher, though, is Jeff Hoffman. He is coming off a better relief season than Holmes, but he is also a candidate to move into a rotation, albeit with a very different profile from Holmes.

Effect on Similar Players

Holmes handily beat his median prediction of three years and $30 million and was able to secure an opt-out as well, good news for Hoffman if he too makes the move to the rotation. Hoffman, like Holmes, is entering his age-32 season, and comes with a slightly higher median contract prediction of three years and $33 million. Might he be able to get something like three years and $42 million with an opt out?

Guardians Sign Shane Bieber for Two Years, $26 Million (2026 player option)

Leo Morgenstern’s Write-Up of the Deal
Updated Roster Projection
Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Guardians

Immediately, there’s no real impact on the Guardians besides to their payroll. Bieber will miss the start of the season and could reasonably be out for the entire first half recovering from Tommy John surgery after making just two starts in 2024. The Guardians could perhaps use another healthy starter to team up with Tanner Bibee, Luis L. Ortiz, Ben Lively, and Gavin Williams in the season-opening rotation, though the club isn’t without options. Joey Cantillo, Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen, and Doug Nikhazy are others on the 40-man vying for starting spots, and Matt “Tugboat” Wilkinson’s meteoric rise through the system could continue.

Effect on Other Teams

As with the Guardians, there should be no immediate impact here. Bieber took less money to stay in a familiar spot, with the Red Sox one such team who made a strong push. Bieber offers upside at a price affordable only because he got hurt.

Effect on Similar Players

There aren’t really any pitchers who can view Bieber’s contract as a model. He’ll be out for a good chunk of the season, plus he turned down more money to stick around. The two-years-including-a-player-option model is one that other rehabbing pitchers could look to follow, albeit on a lesser scale. John Means and Brooks Raley could endeavor to control their own 2026 fates with options, as could Patrick Sandoval, though he’d be under club control via arbitration even if he turned down such an option.

Dodgers Re-Sign Blake Treinen (Two Years, $22 Million), Sign Michael Conforto (One Year, $17 Million)

Dan Szymborski’s Write-Up of the Deals
Updated Roster Projection
Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Dodgers

The Dodgers still need another corner outfielder even with Conforto in the fold, and to that end, they’re still talking with Hernández, albeit with a gap in negotiations that may not be bridged. At any rate, I don’t think Andy Pages is going to enter the year as a starting outfielder, though he makes plenty of sense as an oft-playing bench bat.

As for the bullpen, the Dodgers aren’t simply looking to run back their championship bullpen core minus the retiring Daniel Hudson. Los Angeles is looking into signing Tanner Scott, the best lefty reliever available on the free agent market.

Effect on Other Teams

Righty relievers and lefty corner bats are always plentiful in free agency, but Treinen is arguably the nastiest of the bunch in the former group, and Conforto has a high ceiling for someone on a one-year deal. The Dodgers, along with other teams, were surely intrigued by Conforto’s 133 wRC+ away from the hitter-unfriendly Oracle Park, hence the hefty price for the pillow contract.

Effect on Similar Players

The old-but-still-nasty group of free agent relievers is strong even with Treinen and Aroldis Chapman off the board: Kirby Yates, Kenley Jansen, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, Andrew Kittredge, and Chris Martin are all 35 or older. At least some of the younger members of that group (Robertson and Martin are likely year-to-year at this point) could be in line for multi-year deals at or around Treinen’s average-annual value, with Kahnle and Kittredge sure to be cheaper and Yates likely to be more expensive.

Bounce-back lefty bats are fewer and farther between, but one player who ought to be pleased by Conforto’s contract is Max Kepler. Kepler had an injury-riddled season in which he hit just eight homers across 399 plate appearances, but his last great season (2023) was more recent than Conforto’s (2020), and he’s a better fielder, too. The Dodgers may well have blown everyone out of the water just to sign Conforto, but Kepler’s contract could still beat his median prediction of $11 million.

Tigers Sign Alex Cobb (One Year, $15 Million); Blue Jays Sign Yimi García (Two Years, $15 Million); Phillies Sign Jordan Romano (One Year, $8.5 Million)

Michael Baumann’s Write-Up of the Cobb/García Deals
Baumann’s Write-Up of the Romano Deal
Updated Tigers Roster Projection
Updated Tigers Payroll Projection
Updated Blue Jays Roster Projection
Updated Blue Jays Payroll Projection
Updated Phillies Roster Projection
Updated Phillies Payroll Projection

Effect on the Signing Teams

Baumann was our resident “write about all the pitchers who ended the season injured” guy, apparently. All three ended the season hurt, and all signed for more than I thought they would. If healthy, the’ll all add much-needed stability to their new teams. Cobb will give the Tigers another “real” starter to avoid using Tyler Holton to start every other day, Romano will help cover for the potential loss of Hoffman and Carlos Estévez, and García will help backfill a bullpen that lost Romano. The Tigers may feel content with their starting pitching options at the moment, but the Blue Jays and Phillies probably have more work to do to augment the relief corps.

Effect on Other Teams

This is just what pitching costs now, apparently. If teams hadn’t recalibrated already, now’s the time to do so. Maybe waiting things out will lead to some bargain-basement prices on lower-upside pitchers, but you’re not going to find great stuff for just a couple million bucks, injury concerns be damned.

Effect on Similar Players

Remaining pitchers coming off injury-riddled or injury-shortened seasons include starters Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Trevor Williams, and Spencer Turnbull; and relievers A.J. Minter, Joe Kelly, and Danny Coulombe. They all are of varying levels of upside, but based on how the pitching market is shaping up, they should be expected to command more than we initially expected.

Rockies Sign Thairo Estrada (One Year, $4 Million); White Sox Sign Mike Tauchman (One Year, $1.95 Million)

Updated Rockies Roster Projection
Updated Rockies Payroll Projection
Updated White Sox Roster Projection
Updated White Sox Payroll Projection

Effect on the Signing Teams

Tauchman will step into the White Sox’ starting lineup, at least against righties; he’s a natural platoon partner for the righty-swinging Austin Slater, and his OBP skills work great atop a thin lineup. Estrada should be Colorado’s starting second baseman, sliding the newly acquired Kyle Farmer to a utility role.

Effect on Other Teams

Plenty of players from the bargain bin are still available; teams won’t be losing sleep over missing out on Tauchman and Estrada, even with their upside.

Effect on Similar Players

This was roughly what I expected these two to get after they were cut loose by their old teams, so this isn’t a needle-mover for the market.

Yankees Re-Sign Jonathan Loáisiga (One Year, $TBD, with 2026 club option); Rangers sign Jacob Webb (One Year, $1.25 Million)

Updated Yankees Roster Projection
Updated Yankees Payroll Projection
Updated Rangers Roster Projection
Updated Rangers Payroll Projection

Effect on the Signing Teams

I grouped these two together not because they’re similar pitchers, but because their two teams are in similar situations. These two righties won’t be the last or best relief additions that either team makes, with each team losing three key relievers to the free agent pool. In fact, the Yankees made a bigger splash on Friday, when they traded with the Brewers for Williams. More on that later.

Effect on Other Teams

Little effect on the Yankees and Rangers also means there’s little effect on the other 28 teams. There are still relievers aplenty on the free agent board.

Effect on Similar Players

But, because Loáisiga had plenty of suitors, some of those relievers could sign in quick succession as teams pivot to other options on the market.

Trades

Red Sox Acquire Garrett Crochet From White Sox for Four Prospects

Ben Clemens’ Write-Up of The Deal
Updated Red Sox Roster Projection
Updated Red Sox Payroll Projection
Updated White Sox Roster Projection
Updated White Sox Payroll Projection

Where the Red Sox Go From Here

The top three pitchers in the Red Sox’ rotation have some of the best stuff of any triad in the majors, and Kutter Crawford is a nice fourth starter to have despite his homer problem. There’s not great depth beyond that, though. Richard Fitts had a nice first four starts but didn’t miss bats, Lucas Giolito’s return date from elbow surgery is uncertain, and Cooper Criswell is probably best deployed as a swingman who never faces more than 18 hitters. To that end, Burnes is still on the table for Boston, and if not Burnes, the Red Sox could look to add a lower-tier option to fill a spot.

Where the White Sox Go From Here

Crochet was by far the biggest trade chip, but the White Sox are not without players who could be of interest to other teams. Luis Robert Jr. could be on the move before the offseason is over, even though he’s coming off the worst year of his career and is at the nadir of his value. They’d surely love to unload the last three years of Andrew Benintendi’s contract, but after he had a strong second half, the Sox would have to eat quite a bit of cash to facilitate a deal. Andrew Vaughn could also be of interest to other teams. From there, they could round out the roster with some sign-and-flip candidates.

Cubs Acquire Kyle Tucker for Isaac Paredes, Two Others

Updated Cubs Roster Projection
Updated Cubs Payroll Projection
Updated Astros Roster Projection
Updated Astros Payroll Projection

Where the Cubs Go From Here

The natural move for the Cubs is to clear the outfield logjam by trading Bellinger, and I’d guess that they’re confident in their ability to do that with Tucker in the fold. Pete Crow-Armstrong was too good down the stretch to relegate to the bench, and Seiya Suzuki’s no-trade clause complicates his availability, plus he’s easily the best righty bat on the team. They could also look into a third base stopgap until Matt Shaw is ready. Yoán Moncada, Gio Urshela, and Paul DeJong would all come cheap.

Where the Astros Go From Here

No, I don’t think Taylor Trammell is actually going to be the Astros’ Opening Day right fielder, as we currently have projected. The Astros are operating under some payroll constraints but just saved about $9 million by replacing Tucker with Paredes, and they could reinvest that money into a one-year deal for Max Kepler or Alex Verdugo. I’d be surprised if the Astros brought Bregman back with Paredes in the fold, though the latter could slide over to first base and replace Jon Singleton if Bregman returns.

Andrés Giménez to Blue Jays, Spencer Horwitz to Pirates, Luis L. Ortiz to Guardians in Not-Quite-Three-Team Trade

Ben Clemens’ Write-Up of Giménez to Toronto and Horwitz to Pittsburgh
Updated Blue Jays Roster Projection
Updated Blue Jays Payroll Projection
Updated Pirates Roster Projection
Updated Pirates Payroll Projection
Updated Guardians Roster Projection
Updated Guardians Payroll Projection

Where the Blue Jays Go From Here

Toronto has majorly upgraded its defense at the expense of its offense, so the natural action here is to explore another move (or two, or three, or…) that would augment a lineup that isn’t exactly a threat besides Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and a theoretical return to form for Bo Bichette. The Jays have expressed interest in Bregman and Santander along with some more complementary bats on the market like Gleyber Torres.

Where the Pirates Go From Here

The Pirates desperately need offense this offseason, and while Horwitz is a nice get, they still should add more hitters. Having Isiah Kiner-Falefa as their leadoff batter on Opening Day, as we currently project, would be somewhere between “not ideal” and “organizational malpractice.” A reunion with Andrew McCutchen makes all the sense in the world, but that’s more of a depth move. It would behoove the Pirates to take a big swing at a big swinger to support a solid pitching staff. Santander, Teoscar Hernández, and Christian Walker each would be transformative.

Where the Guardians Go From Here

As far as a direct response to this trade is concerned, the Guards really don’t need to make one. Cleveland is teeming with infield depth and can simply use someone like Angel Martínez or Juan Brito to keep the seat warm for the eventual arrival of this year’s first overall pick Travis Bazzana. Ortiz lessens the team’s need in the rotation, too, with four spots now looking to be in pretty good shape and Triston McKenzie out of options.

Yankees Acquire Devin Williams From Brewers for Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin

Updated Yankees Roster Projection
Updated Yankees Payroll Projection
Updated Brewers Roster Projection
Updated Pirates Payroll Projection

Where the Yankees Go From Here

Williams and Luke Weaver give the Yankees a great one-two punch in the back end of their bullpen, but they shouldn’t be done adding relief arms. We currently project New York’s bullpen to be all right-handed, so a reunion with Tim Hill would make a lot of sense. If they wanted to form probably the league’s most formidable bullpen trio, they could go big and sign Tanner Scott.

Durbin had been penciled in as the Yankees’ starting second baseman, and losing him increases the need for his former club to acquire another infielder. They’ve shown interest in third baseman Bregman, whose addition would slide Jazz Chisholm Jr. over to second, and they still desperately need to upgrade at first base; they’re reportedly in the market for Walker and Alonso. They could also re-sign Torres to play second, with Chisholm remaining at third.

Where the Brewers Go From Here

Barring any other trades (like shedding Aaron Civale’s $8 million projected salary, for example), the Brewers have to be feeling pretty good about their rotation. Cortes joins Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, Civale, and Tobias Myers in the starting five, with DL Hall, Aaron Ashby, Connor Thomas, and top prospect Jacob Misiorowski around as rotation depth.

Durbin will help out in the infield and is currently projected to platoon with Oliver Dunn at third, though both players are unproven, and Durbin has yet to make his MLB debut. Milwaukee has expressed interest in Ha-Seong Kim, who will miss the start of the season but has more upside than any of the team’s current infielders.

Rangers Get Jake Burger in Trade With Marlins for Three Prospects

Michael Baumann’s Write-Up of the Trade
Updated Rangers Roster Projection
Updated Rangers Payroll Projection
Updated Marlins Roster Projection
Updated Marlins Payroll Projection

Where the Rangers Go From Here

On the surface, the Rangers have too many hitters for nine spots, with Kyle Higashioka, Josh Smith, and Leody Taveras all starting-caliber but currently projected on the bench. However, there are legitimate concerns with the health of Evan Carter coming off back surgery, Josh Jung after two wrist surgeries, and Corey Seager after hernia surgery. Burger provides needed insurance on the infield corners as well as at DH. Roster redundancy is only a problem if everyone is healthy and performing, and that’s rarely the case for any team.

Where the Marlins Go From Here

This doesn’t necessarily portend further gutting by Peter Bendix and company, with Bendix expressing a desire to give playing time to upstart youngsters like Deyvison De Los Santos and Agustin Ramirez. Jesús Sánchez could be of interest to other teams if Miami wants to open some outfield playing time for less experienced players.

Biggest Rumors of the Week

• The Tucker trade should shape Bregman’s market, as he might be the next big free agent to come off the board. Houston’s acquisition of Paredes in that deal likely closes off the chance of a reunion with Bregman, who has other teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Blue Jays) interested in him.

• A big week for starting pitcher signings leaves Burnes as the best remaining free agent by far, and he too may be nearing a decision. If the Blue Jays and Giants are indeed the favorites and one of them signs him, he’d be joining a team coming off a disappointing season but looking to turn things around quickly.


RosterResource Chat – 12/13/24

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Kyle Teel Headlines Solid Return Package for White Sox in Garrett Crochet Trade

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The White Sox finished the 2024 season with my fourth-ranked farm system, and now they’ve added four good prospects via their trade with the Red Sox centered around lefty starter Garrett Crochet, who is under contract for two more seasons. You can read about Crochet and the Red Sox here. Coming back to Chicago in exchange are soon-to-be 23-year-old catcher Kyle Teel, 2024 first-round pick Braden Montgomery, 22-year-old developmental righty Wikelman Gonzalez, and data darling 23-year-old infielder Chase Meidroth. Two of those players (Teel and Meidroth) have a good chance to debut in 2025.

I thought this deal was much better than what the White Sox got back from San Diego last March for two years of Dylan Cease. A blockbuster rule of thumb: Get back at least one high-probability everyday hitter. Teel fits the bill. He’s a well-rounded player who is a virtual lock to remain at catcher and who will probably hit for enough power to be the White Sox primary catcher a few years from now. Montgomery is a switch-hitter with immense lefty bat speed, and he may also turn into an everyday, power-hitting right fielder down the line. Meidroth (elite contact, no power) and Gonzalez (three good-looking pitches that don’t play due to poor control) each have a plus characteristic or two that should facilitate an eventual big league role, and both have a puncher’s chance to be more than that. While it’s painful to part with a talent like Crochet (who was a bold, injured draft pick in 2020), a four-for-one swap in which each prospect they acquired has a special skill and potentially meaningful upside gives the White Sox a great combination of depth and ceiling in this transaction. Read the rest of this entry »


Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 12/13/24

12:08
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from sunny Tempe. I returned from Dallas yesterday evening, had a great time with the whole FG crew and other baseball pals, redeemed the city after ASB.

12:08
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m gonna preempt a lot of questions by posting a few links to get started…

12:09
Eric A Longenhagen: Lots of folks asking about the Crochet return. My thoughts went live a few minutes ago. Kyle Teel Headlines Solid Return Package for White Sox in Garrett Crochet Trade | FanGraphs Baseball

12:10
Eric A Longenhagen: In short: Much better than any of the deals they made last year.

12:10
Eric A Longenhagen: I also wrote up the Guardians return for Spencer Horwitz

12:10
Eric A Longenhagen: Guardians Get Pitching Prospects Piñata for Andrés Giménez | FanGraphs Baseball

Read the rest of this entry »


JAWS and the 2025 Hall of Fame Ballot: Omar Vizquel and Francisco Rodríguez

RVR Photos-Imagn Images; Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

The fourth and final multi-candidate pairing of this series is by far the heaviest, covering two candidates who have both been connected to multiple incidents of domestic violence. Read the rest of this entry »


The Konerko: The Stat You Didn’t Know You Didn’t Need

Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

I’m going to show you a short video compilation I made. Can you figure out what these seven baserunning plays from the 2024 season have in common?

Admittedly, there’s a red herring among those video clips. One of them focuses on Bobby Witt Jr. stealing third base, but what I really wanted to highlight was Vinnie Pasquantino stealing second behind him. Here’s a better angle than what’s available on MLB Film Room:

Read the rest of this entry »


2025 ZiPS Projections: New York Yankees

For the 21st consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the New York Yankees.

Batters

The Yankees’ big problem on offense is an obvious one: Juan Soto is no longer in the lineup. Their position players are projected for 23.3 WAR, about 10 fewer wins from their 2024 total. Much of that is due to Soto’s absence, but ZiPS is also projecting Aaron Judge’s production to dip by three or four wins. That’s not a knock on Judge; remember, he put up 11.2 WAR last season, and no projection system worth anything would expect him not to regress in 2025.

Judge’s projection is still a dynamite one, but unfortunately for the Yankees, he stands alone in stardom in the lineup. There are a lot of good projections here. The Austin Wells/Jose Trevino catching tandem and shortstop Anthony Volpe are projected to eclipse 3.0 WAR. ZiPS expects Jazz Chisholm Jr. to be their second-best position player, and outfielders Jasson Domínguez and Trent Grisham to have solid campaigns. The problem is this group isn’t that exciting. Except for Judge, of course. The Yankees had the no. 2 offense in baseball (117 wRC+) in 2024, but unless they make some significant upgrades between now and Opening Day, expect them to take a step back at the plate.

ZiPS sees DH and first base as the two biggest problems in this lineup. The projections are tremendously unexcited about a Ben Rice/DJ LeMahieu timeshare at first. Giancarlo Stanton had a terrific postseason – and ZiPS factors in that production – but he was still only a .233/.298/.475 hitter in the regular season. Moreover, considering he turned 35 last month, he’s more likely to decline than improve moving forward. Barring injury, Stanton is going to be the Yankees’ regular DH in 2025, but the team could (read: should) add a first baseman over the next few months.

On the plus side, ZiPS thinks New York’s patchwork of second base options should adequately replace free agent Gleyber Torres if he signs elswhere.

The last concern ZiPS has is the organization’s minor league depth, especially on offense. The projections for Spencer Jones are much worse than the scouting consensus.

Pitchers

The Yankees overpaid this week when they agreed to sign Max Fried to the largest contract ever for a lefty pitcher, but that doesn’t mean it was a bad deal. On the contrary, because there is a lot of injury risk in this rotation, it was crucial for the Yankees to add a top-of-the-rotation starter, and ZiPS projects Fried to be their best pitcher this season by WAR. Some of Gerrit Cole’s projected dip is due to his missing a chunk of time in 2024 with an elbow injury, but that’s far from the only source of concern here. Now 34, Cole is allowing more contact these days, a trend that started in his 2023 Cy Young season, not this past year. ZiPS also projects Luis Gil to regress toward the mean, and it sees Carlos Rodón as an injury risk. Don’t get me wrong, the Yankees have a good starting rotation, especially if their pitchers stay healthy, but this group is a step or two below the top-shelf units of the Phillies and Dodgers.

ZiPS is more optimistic than Steamer is about New York’s bullpen. You won’t actually find relievers with projected ERAs above four until you get very deep in the pen, where you’ll see names like JT Brubaker and Yerry De Los Santos. While an extra relief arm or two would be welcome, I don’t think boosting the bullpen ought to be the team’s biggest priority.

All told, the Yankees are projected to finish with a win total in the high-80s or low-90s. That’s not ideal, of course, but that’s about where the Orioles sit right now as well, and nobody else in the division has a better projection. It’ll be interesting to see what the Yankees do the next few months.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Aaron Judge R 33 CF 635 517 102 146 26 0 46 124 109 165 8 1
Jazz Chisholm Jr. L 27 CF 552 498 72 125 20 3 24 83 46 139 32 8
Anthony Volpe R 24 SS 645 581 81 139 33 5 16 73 51 149 26 6
Gleyber Torres R 28 2B 639 567 76 146 27 1 19 74 62 119 8 4
Trent Grisham L 28 CF 432 372 51 79 20 1 16 51 50 113 7 2
Austin Wells L 25 C 443 389 47 89 20 1 15 58 43 109 4 1
Jasson Domínguez B 22 CF 447 402 62 102 15 2 16 56 42 113 20 3
Oswald Peraza R 25 SS 480 434 60 101 16 1 14 59 35 115 18 6
Jose Trevino R 32 C 268 248 26 58 9 1 6 31 16 46 1 1
DJ LeMahieu R 36 3B 408 360 42 88 14 1 6 38 42 72 1 2
Jorbit Vivas L 24 2B 529 464 63 104 19 3 8 55 45 86 11 3
Caleb Durbin R 25 2B 411 360 52 85 20 2 7 48 34 45 20 4
Oswaldo Cabrera B 26 3B 387 352 48 84 17 1 11 46 28 85 7 2
Giancarlo Stanton R 35 DH 440 394 45 90 16 0 25 69 42 131 0 0
Alex Verdugo L 29 LF 591 534 75 134 30 1 14 62 46 90 3 2
Jon Berti R 35 3B 319 285 39 69 11 1 5 28 28 72 15 4
Spencer Jones L 24 CF 533 490 63 110 26 5 15 65 38 213 16 7
J.C. Escarra L 30 C 449 400 56 90 24 3 8 51 38 79 2 1
Everson Pereira R 24 CF 362 331 48 78 14 3 13 50 25 123 7 3
Kevin Smith R 28 SS 370 340 39 74 16 1 10 44 21 126 9 2
Pablo Reyes R 31 3B 349 313 45 73 13 1 7 35 30 68 9 4
Greg Allen B 32 CF 241 203 32 45 9 2 3 27 19 61 13 2
Cam Eden R 27 CF 398 355 44 75 14 2 6 40 30 119 26 6
Brendan Jones L 23 CF 109 90 12 18 4 0 2 11 19 28 9 0
Anthony Rizzo L 35 1B 402 353 43 80 14 0 13 44 34 80 1 1
Josh VanMeter L 30 2B 245 209 25 40 9 1 5 23 32 69 3 1
Jeter Downs R 26 SS 317 278 38 55 12 1 9 38 28 95 11 4
Elijah Dunham L 27 LF 455 410 50 87 20 3 12 54 38 138 15 4
Cole Gabrielson R 24 RF 299 260 29 53 12 2 3 30 26 91 8 3
Grant Richardson L 25 LF 415 382 45 82 17 2 12 50 25 148 9 3
T.J. Rumfield L 25 1B 457 413 51 97 20 0 11 54 35 91 3 2
Brett Phillips L 31 CF 288 250 34 43 8 2 7 28 30 123 10 2
Luis González L 29 RF 284 251 30 57 11 2 5 30 26 74 8 2
Jace Avina R 22 CF 417 378 41 78 18 1 11 51 27 143 3 1
Ben Rice L 26 1B 469 407 63 92 17 0 22 71 50 113 5 2
Jackson Castillo L 22 CF 410 364 47 76 15 2 7 41 40 107 10 4
Jesus Rodriguez L 18 LF 352 318 38 73 11 2 5 35 27 83 10 4
Jeremy Pena R 26 LF 298 260 34 51 13 2 7 35 28 88 8 3
Kiko Romero L 24 3B 277 244 23 43 10 1 6 28 29 105 4 1
Antonio Gomez R 23 C 310 287 30 59 13 1 4 29 18 105 1 1
Omar Martinez L 23 C 431 381 44 76 12 1 12 47 44 127 2 0
Roc Riggio L 23 2B 474 418 53 78 20 4 9 49 47 120 12 4
Christopher Familia L 25 LF 233 215 27 45 9 1 8 31 13 67 1 0
Nelson Medina R 24 CF 202 186 17 37 5 2 2 15 13 92 4 1
Kyle Battle R 27 LF 114 101 13 16 4 1 2 10 10 46 5 1
Max Burt R 28 3B 312 288 37 51 10 1 6 30 18 111 10 2
George Lombard Jr. R 20 SS 522 474 48 92 21 1 5 45 40 151 19 6
Duke Ellis L 27 CF 343 311 41 64 8 2 4 30 23 106 32 4
Jared Wegner R 25 RF 351 313 32 61 15 2 7 37 30 124 5 4
Beau Brewer R 23 3B 141 131 11 27 4 0 0 8 10 22 0 0
Garrett Martin R 25 RF 341 307 36 54 13 2 8 43 22 120 8 1
Dylan Jasso R 22 1B 529 483 52 98 22 2 10 56 33 164 1 0
Josh Breaux R 27 C 280 263 24 50 9 0 10 32 15 89 0 0
Brenny Escanio B 22 3B 357 326 28 63 10 2 1 23 26 114 10 4
Anthony Hall L 24 RF 286 261 26 49 9 2 4 24 23 102 4 1
Josh Moylan L 22 1B 426 380 44 76 14 1 7 42 38 129 1 2
Alexander Vargas B 23 SS 379 360 37 72 12 5 5 34 15 115 10 7
Tyler Hardman R 26 1B 401 365 42 66 10 1 13 44 28 173 6 2
Coby Morales L 23 1B 460 416 49 82 9 1 4 37 37 174 17 5

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA 3YOPS+ RC
Aaron Judge 635 .283 .409 .600 180 .317 .327 -6 7.3 .420 171 129
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 552 .251 .318 .448 113 .197 .301 3 3.2 .329 115 81
Anthony Volpe 645 .239 .308 .396 97 .157 .296 4 3.1 .307 98 78
Gleyber Torres 639 .258 .331 .409 107 .152 .296 -2 2.6 .324 106 80
Trent Grisham 432 .212 .312 .401 99 .188 .259 5 2.1 .313 97 49
Austin Wells 443 .229 .312 .401 99 .172 .279 -1 1.9 .312 102 50
Jasson Domínguez 447 .254 .324 .420 108 .167 .315 -5 1.8 .324 114 60
Oswald Peraza 480 .233 .303 .371 89 .138 .285 2 1.7 .297 92 55
Jose Trevino 268 .234 .285 .351 78 .117 .266 11 1.6 .279 75 25
DJ LeMahieu 408 .244 .324 .339 88 .094 .291 6 1.4 .296 84 40
Jorbit Vivas 529 .224 .312 .330 82 .106 .259 4 1.3 .289 85 51
Caleb Durbin 411 .236 .321 .361 92 .125 .253 -1 1.3 .303 92 47
Oswaldo Cabrera 387 .239 .297 .386 91 .148 .285 4 1.3 .298 92 43
Giancarlo Stanton 440 .229 .305 .460 112 .231 .273 0 1.1 .327 103 55
Alex Verdugo 591 .251 .310 .389 96 .138 .279 4 1.1 .305 95 66
Jon Berti 319 .242 .315 .340 85 .098 .308 4 1.1 .291 81 35
Spencer Jones 533 .225 .283 .390 87 .165 .363 1 1.1 .292 94 60
J.C. Escarra 449 .225 .303 .360 86 .135 .262 -4 0.9 .293 82 44
Everson Pereira 362 .236 .298 .414 98 .178 .333 -4 0.8 .309 104 44
Kevin Smith 370 .217 .267 .358 74 .141 .313 3 0.7 .272 73 35
Pablo Reyes 349 .233 .303 .348 84 .115 .277 1 0.7 .289 82 36
Greg Allen 241 .222 .322 .330 85 .108 .302 1 0.7 .295 81 25
Cam Eden 398 .212 .286 .313 69 .102 .301 4 0.6 .268 70 39
Brendan Jones 109 .200 .339 .311 86 .111 .267 1 0.5 .301 94 11
Anthony Rizzo 402 .227 .316 .377 95 .150 .258 1 0.4 .306 88 43
Josh VanMeter 245 .192 .303 .316 75 .125 .260 1 0.3 .281 71 21
Jeter Downs 317 .198 .282 .346 76 .148 .265 -2 0.3 .278 82 31
Elijah Dunham 455 .212 .286 .363 82 .151 .288 2 0.2 .286 83 47
Cole Gabrielson 299 .204 .304 .300 72 .096 .301 5 0.2 .277 75 27
Grant Richardson 415 .215 .273 .364 78 .149 .316 4 0.0 .279 80 41
T.J. Rumfield 457 .235 .302 .363 87 .128 .277 2 0.0 .293 90 47
Brett Phillips 288 .172 .263 .303 59 .132 .299 3 0.0 .254 56 23
Luis González 284 .227 .306 .347 84 .120 .302 -1 0.0 .290 82 29
Jace Avina 417 .207 .276 .347 74 .140 .300 -2 0.0 .275 80 37
Ben Rice 469 .226 .320 .430 109 .204 .258 -13 -0.1 .327 113 58
Jackson Castillo 410 .209 .290 .319 72 .110 .276 -2 -0.1 .272 77 37
Jesus Rodriguez 352 .229 .295 .324 75 .094 .295 2 -0.2 .276 80 34
Jeremy Pena 298 .196 .290 .342 78 .146 .267 -1 -0.2 .282 82 29
Kiko Romero 277 .176 .274 .299 62 .123 .278 0 -0.3 .261 66 21
Antonio Gomez 310 .205 .258 .299 57 .094 .309 0 -0.3 .246 63 23
Omar Martinez 431 .199 .288 .331 74 .131 .264 -10 -0.3 .277 81 37
Roc Riggio 474 .186 .277 .318 68 .131 .238 -3 -0.4 .266 71 41
Christopher Familia 233 .209 .266 .372 77 .163 .264 -2 -0.4 .278 82 22
Nelson Medina 202 .199 .257 .279 52 .081 .379 0 -0.4 .241 56 15
Kyle Battle 114 .158 .246 .277 47 .119 .264 0 -0.5 .236 48 8
Max Burt 312 .177 .234 .281 45 .104 .263 5 -0.5 .230 46 22
George Lombard Jr. 522 .194 .266 .274 53 .080 .274 0 -0.6 .245 60 41
Duke Ellis 343 .206 .268 .283 56 .077 .298 -4 -0.6 .248 58 32
Jared Wegner 351 .195 .274 .323 68 .128 .297 0 -0.8 .265 71 30
Beau Brewer 141 .207 .262 .237 43 .031 .249 -3 -0.8 .228 46 8
Garrett Martin 341 .176 .255 .309 58 .133 .257 2 -0.8 .252 63 26
Dylan Jasso 529 .203 .263 .319 63 .116 .285 9 -0.8 .257 69 41
Josh Breaux 280 .190 .236 .338 59 .148 .244 -7 -0.9 .250 62 21
Brenny Escanio 357 .193 .253 .245 42 .052 .294 3 -1.0 .226 46 24
Anthony Hall 286 .187 .255 .283 52 .096 .290 1 -1.0 .240 56 20
Josh Moylan 426 .200 .279 .297 63 .097 .283 2 -1.2 .259 68 33
Alexander Vargas 379 .200 .235 .303 50 .103 .280 -3 -1.2 .235 55 31
Tyler Hardman 401 .181 .242 .320 57 .140 .295 2 -1.4 .247 62 31
Coby Morales 460 .197 .272 .252 50 .055 .328 5 -1.4 .241 53 34

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Aaron Judge Mickey Mantle Jim Edmonds Pedro Guerrero
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Carlos González Carlos Gómez Andy Van Slyke
Anthony Volpe Matt Long Ivan De Jesus Joel Youngblood
Gleyber Torres Craig Biggio Don Wert Marcus Giles
Trent Grisham Ellis Burton Kelly Heath Cliff Mapes
Austin Wells Gary Allenson Erik Pappas Johnny Edwards
Jasson Domínguez Akil Baddoo Joel Youngblood Jose Cardenal
Oswald Peraza Freddie Patek Luke Appling Jerry Dybzinski
Jose Trevino Bryan Holaday Charlie Hargreaves Danny Baich
DJ LeMahieu Eric Sogard Tom Herr Mark Loretta
Jorbit Vivas Jerry McDonald Chris Coghlan Wayne Meadows
Caleb Durbin Eric Young Sr. Larry Eckenrode Vidal Bruján
Oswaldo Cabrera Rob Wilfong Mike Mordecai Glen Franklin
Giancarlo Stanton Khris Davis Deron Johnson Richie Sexson
Alex Verdugo Jim Rushford Jason Heyward Rip Radcliff
Jon Berti Bert Campaneris Dick Smith Julio Lugo
Spencer Jones Lou Brock Matthew den Dekker Michael A. Taylor
J.C. Escarra Tom Lampkin Bob Oldis Bill Hall
Everson Pereira Ed Moxey Ray Torres Tony Scott
Kevin Smith Brandon Powell Kristopher Negrón Benji Gil
Pablo Reyes John Wehner Joe Pettini Desi Relaford
Greg Allen Kevin Thompson James Mouton Derrel Thomas
Cam Eden Walt Harris Mike Loggins Scarborough Green
Brendan Jones Carlos Akins Tripp Keister George Johnson
Anthony Rizzo Neil Walker Yonder Alonso Tom Burgess
Josh VanMeter Jim Waggoner Nolan Fontana Ollie Bejma
Jeter Downs Jose Valentin Jeremy Sy Buddy Biancalana
Elijah Dunham Blake Tekotte Rob Lukachyk Mark Contreras
Cole Gabrielson Richard Prigatano Saige Jenco Tanner English
Grant Richardson Chad Hermansen Kody Kaiser Carlo Testa
T.J. Rumfield Tim Belk Matt Hague Damek Tomscha
Brett Phillips Bob Montag Louie Meadows Sherry Robertson
Luis González Rick Miller Bruce Dostal Thomas Simon
Jace Avina Damon Hollins Alex Jackson Moises Gomez
Ben Rice Art Shamsky Paul Pettit David Justice
Jackson Castillo Donald Ellis Marco Cunningham Rabbit Henry
Jesus Rodriguez Steven Michael John Flammang Mike Loggins
Jeremy Pena Anthony Norman Jonathan Davis Troy Stokes Jr.
Kiko Romero Jason Rakers Max Dutto Alex Barrett
Antonio Gomez Dennis Dittman Jim Deidel Abel Baker
Omar Martinez Joe Nolan Mike Martin Donnie Scott
Roc Riggio Jed Hansen Scott Pratt Kaden Polcovich
Christopher Familia Brandon Decker Will Walsh Chris Morrow
Nelson Medina Modesto De Aza James Horsford Claudio Custodio
Kyle Battle Jim Essian Kevin Flora Raymond Goirigolzarri
Max Burt Matt Hagen Jose Arcia Tony Torres
George Lombard Jr. Jason Camilli Ike Brown Gerard Hall
Duke Ellis Marcus Nettles Ethan Chapman Lonell Roberts
Jared Wegner Steve Haake Frank Washington Jack Weisenburger
Beau Brewer Joe Arredondo Jefrey Albies Rafael Medina
Garrett Martin Randy Simmons Mick Kerns Steven Yost
Dylan Jasso Eric Welsh Randy Warner Bob Olah
Josh Breaux Jeff Hooper Jamie Williams Ronn Reynolds
Brenny Escanio Bob Bailey Todd Hankins Steve Garrabrants
Anthony Hall Kendall Coleman Cody Bishop Greg Rudolph
Josh Moylan Logan Parker Michael Christino Petie Roach
Alexander Vargas Ramon Araujo Gilberto Mejia Jason Smith
Tyler Hardman Leroy Haynes Ken Lake Justin Maxwell
Coby Morales Steve Claybrook C.L. Penigar Armond Upshaw

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Aaron Judge .310 .434 .677 206 9.3 .257 .381 .540 157 5.7
Jazz Chisholm Jr. .276 .343 .501 131 4.6 .224 .289 .397 91 1.8
Anthony Volpe .261 .330 .444 115 4.6 .217 .285 .360 81 1.8
Gleyber Torres .281 .354 .458 123 3.9 .233 .304 .368 88 1.1
Trent Grisham .232 .338 .460 119 3.0 .189 .285 .354 81 1.1
Austin Wells .257 .340 .461 122 3.0 .205 .288 .346 79 0.8
Jasson Domínguez .285 .351 .480 129 3.0 .227 .296 .368 89 0.6
Oswald Peraza .254 .325 .418 108 2.8 .205 .277 .325 72 0.7
Jose Trevino .263 .317 .406 101 2.4 .203 .258 .305 60 1.0
DJ LeMahieu .275 .355 .374 105 2.2 .212 .292 .292 65 0.2
Jorbit Vivas .247 .337 .369 100 2.4 .199 .286 .288 65 0.2
Caleb Durbin .261 .346 .407 109 2.2 .210 .296 .323 75 0.4
Oswaldo Cabrera .263 .320 .434 110 2.1 .215 .272 .339 73 0.4
Giancarlo Stanton .253 .330 .524 132 2.2 .206 .281 .396 90 0.0
Alex Verdugo .280 .339 .435 115 2.5 .232 .289 .349 80 0.0
Jon Berti .269 .338 .380 101 1.8 .213 .287 .299 68 0.4
Spencer Jones .253 .312 .444 110 2.5 .195 .253 .347 67 -0.3
J.C. Escarra .254 .334 .415 108 2.2 .198 .278 .315 68 -0.1
Everson Pereira .259 .327 .461 116 1.6 .205 .272 .362 77 -0.2
Kevin Smith .244 .293 .417 97 1.9 .192 .237 .308 55 -0.1
Pablo Reyes .260 .331 .397 106 1.6 .207 .280 .302 67 0.0
Greg Allen .248 .345 .375 104 1.2 .195 .297 .280 67 0.2
Cam Eden .238 .312 .358 86 1.5 .184 .259 .275 51 -0.4
Brendan Jones .227 .371 .362 105 0.8 .175 .312 .267 67 0.3
Anthony Rizzo .253 .340 .424 111 1.3 .198 .290 .323 73 -0.7
Josh VanMeter .218 .332 .366 93 0.9 .165 .276 .272 56 -0.2
Jeter Downs .221 .312 .403 98 1.1 .170 .259 .289 56 -0.6
Elijah Dunham .237 .311 .416 103 1.4 .184 .257 .319 63 -0.9
Cole Gabrielson .230 .332 .345 91 0.9 .175 .281 .258 54 -0.4
Grant Richardson .242 .302 .414 99 1.2 .190 .250 .318 59 -0.9
T.J. Rumfield .257 .326 .411 105 1.0 .209 .280 .317 68 -1.0
Brett Phillips .199 .294 .364 84 0.9 .146 .229 .251 38 -0.8
Luis González .252 .332 .392 102 0.6 .201 .278 .299 63 -0.7
Jace Avina .235 .301 .400 93 0.9 .180 .248 .306 56 -1.0
Ben Rice .250 .342 .490 129 1.1 .199 .293 .371 87 -1.2
Jackson Castillo .239 .319 .370 93 0.9 .185 .265 .274 55 -1.0
Jesus Rodriguez .254 .324 .377 94 0.8 .201 .268 .285 58 -1.0
Jeremy Pena .221 .318 .392 98 0.6 .169 .263 .292 59 -0.9
Kiko Romero .206 .305 .358 83 0.4 .148 .250 .255 43 -0.9
Antonio Gomez .235 .290 .348 77 0.5 .176 .231 .258 38 -1.1
Omar Martinez .231 .319 .390 99 1.0 .174 .256 .284 54 -1.4
Roc Riggio .207 .298 .361 86 0.7 .164 .253 .274 50 -1.4
Christopher Familia .235 .294 .428 99 0.2 .183 .243 .326 59 -1.0
Nelson Medina .229 .294 .333 74 0.2 .169 .229 .230 31 -0.9
Kyle Battle .183 .275 .319 66 -0.2 .132 .219 .231 28 -0.7
Max Burt .203 .260 .330 65 0.3 .151 .209 .246 28 -1.1
George Lombard Jr. .221 .294 .322 74 0.6 .166 .239 .238 37 -1.7
Duke Ellis .232 .296 .320 73 0.2 .179 .243 .252 41 -1.3
Jared Wegner .224 .302 .369 85 0.0 .168 .250 .279 49 -1.5
Beau Brewer .237 .292 .274 60 -0.5 .177 .231 .204 26 -1.1
Garrett Martin .200 .282 .358 78 0.1 .149 .229 .262 39 -1.6
Dylan Jasso .228 .288 .359 81 0.3 .179 .241 .283 48 -1.8
Josh Breaux .218 .266 .391 80 -0.2 .165 .209 .285 38 -1.7
Brenny Escanio .219 .280 .279 57 -0.3 .168 .228 .210 25 -1.8
Anthony Hall .213 .286 .320 69 -0.4 .164 .233 .240 34 -1.6
Josh Moylan .227 .306 .342 81 -0.3 .176 .253 .261 47 -2.1
Alexander Vargas .222 .258 .348 69 -0.4 .175 .208 .262 33 -2.1
Tyler Hardman .210 .268 .371 77 -0.4 .156 .215 .267 36 -2.5
Coby Morales .226 .300 .289 68 -0.4 .172 .245 .220 34 -2.3

Batters – Platoon Splits
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R
Aaron Judge .283 .425 .616 .282 .403 .594
Jazz Chisholm Jr. .236 .297 .389 .257 .326 .472
Anthony Volpe .250 .329 .420 .234 .296 .383
Gleyber Torres .261 .341 .427 .256 .327 .402
Trent Grisham .212 .307 .384 .212 .314 .407
Austin Wells .218 .304 .361 .233 .316 .419
Jasson Domínguez .250 .313 .412 .256 .330 .425
Oswald Peraza .239 .307 .390 .229 .300 .360
Jose Trevino .238 .299 .350 .232 .278 .351
DJ LeMahieu .255 .336 .353 .240 .320 .333
Jorbit Vivas .217 .303 .306 .228 .316 .342
Caleb Durbin .235 .321 .357 .237 .321 .363
Oswaldo Cabrera .242 .298 .392 .237 .296 .384
Giancarlo Stanton .238 .316 .495 .225 .301 .447
Alex Verdugo .241 .299 .342 .255 .316 .410
Jon Berti .239 .320 .352 .244 .312 .335
Spencer Jones .220 .270 .378 .226 .288 .394
J.C. Escarra .210 .283 .331 .232 .312 .373
Everson Pereira .239 .306 .434 .234 .294 .404
Kevin Smith .227 .285 .394 .212 .256 .337
Pablo Reyes .239 .313 .359 .230 .296 .342
Greg Allen .219 .320 .313 .223 .323 .338
Cam Eden .215 .294 .322 .209 .282 .308
Brendan Jones .185 .313 .222 .206 .351 .349
Anthony Rizzo .216 .306 .340 .230 .320 .391
Josh VanMeter .184 .298 .286 .194 .303 .325
Jeter Downs .202 .294 .356 .195 .276 .339
Elijah Dunham .201 .270 .328 .217 .293 .380
Cole Gabrielson .215 .319 .329 .199 .298 .287
Grant Richardson .207 .267 .342 .218 .275 .373
T.J. Rumfield .222 .287 .342 .240 .308 .372
Brett Phillips .152 .240 .227 .179 .271 .332
Luis González .218 .295 .359 .231 .311 .341
Jace Avina .214 .282 .375 .203 .273 .335
Ben Rice .212 .299 .373 .232 .328 .453
Jackson Castillo .198 .271 .271 .213 .297 .336
Jesus Rodriguez .215 .282 .301 .236 .301 .333
Jeremy Pena .198 .296 .337 .195 .288 .345
Kiko Romero .169 .260 .246 .179 .279 .318
Antonio Gomez .219 .276 .333 .199 .249 .283
Omar Martinez .188 .272 .277 .204 .293 .350
Roc Riggio .183 .267 .308 .188 .281 .322
Christopher Familia .197 .264 .318 .215 .267 .396
Nelson Medina .217 .277 .333 .190 .248 .254
Kyle Battle .171 .275 .314 .152 .230 .258
Max Burt .182 .241 .283 .175 .230 .280
George Lombard Jr. .199 .280 .291 .192 .260 .267
Duke Ellis .204 .265 .278 .207 .270 .286
Jared Wegner .200 .287 .337 .193 .267 .317
Beau Brewer .220 .289 .244 .200 .250 .233
Garrett Martin .189 .263 .322 .171 .252 .304
Dylan Jasso .200 .266 .329 .204 .261 .315
Josh Breaux .194 .245 .350 .188 .229 .331
Brenny Escanio .198 .255 .257 .191 .252 .240
Anthony Hall .186 .240 .286 .188 .261 .283
Josh Moylan .192 .264 .253 .203 .285 .313
Alexander Vargas .198 .230 .302 .201 .237 .303
Tyler Hardman .188 .256 .342 .177 .235 .310
Coby Morales .182 .250 .227 .203 .279 .261

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Max Fried L 31 12 8 3.43 27 27 162.7 141 62 15 48 147
Gerrit Cole R 34 9 7 3.64 25 25 143.3 123 58 20 39 150
Nestor Cortes L 30 9 7 3.84 28 26 152.3 136 65 20 38 144
Carlos Rodón L 32 11 10 4.04 28 28 151.3 130 68 22 49 166
Luis Gil R 27 9 9 4.14 27 27 132.7 107 61 17 66 150
Clarke Schmidt R 29 6 6 3.91 23 20 106.0 94 46 12 35 108
Marcus Stroman R 34 8 9 4.34 26 25 137.0 135 66 16 48 101
Will Warren R 26 6 7 4.41 25 24 122.3 114 60 15 42 116
Ben Shields L 26 5 4 4.28 24 16 94.7 87 45 12 31 92
Trystan Vrieling R 24 9 10 4.65 25 23 131.7 135 68 19 42 101
Jonathan Loáisiga R 30 6 3 3.23 39 0 47.3 42 17 3 12 39
Luke Weaver R 31 4 4 4.09 41 9 83.7 75 38 11 27 89
Cody Poteet R 30 3 3 4.15 17 16 69.3 64 32 10 23 62
Clayton Beeter R 26 4 4 4.33 21 17 79.0 68 38 11 37 84
Sean Boyle R 28 5 5 4.42 20 13 75.3 73 37 10 20 61
Zach Messinger R 25 6 7 4.71 25 22 124.3 123 65 18 48 100
Chase Hampton R 23 3 3 4.57 18 18 86.7 83 44 14 30 77
Ian Hamilton R 30 3 2 3.40 38 1 47.7 39 18 4 20 54
Cam Schlittler R 24 7 7 4.62 23 21 103.3 99 53 15 42 94
Yoendrys Gómez R 25 3 3 4.59 25 20 80.3 73 41 11 35 76
Tanner Tully L 30 4 6 4.73 21 18 93.3 102 49 12 24 54
Josh Maciejewski L 29 4 4 4.48 27 11 72.3 72 36 10 26 59
Brandon Leibrandt L 32 3 4 4.65 17 13 71.7 75 37 11 21 56
Brock Selvidge L 22 6 7 4.81 19 19 97.3 100 52 14 36 72
Mark Leiter Jr. R 34 4 5 4.19 47 3 62.3 52 29 9 25 74
Tommy Kahnle R 35 1 1 3.86 51 2 44.3 35 19 5 20 48
Cody Morris R 28 2 3 4.14 23 5 41.3 36 19 5 21 43
JT Brubaker R 31 4 4 4.81 17 16 76.7 76 41 13 26 71
Scott Effross R 31 4 3 3.76 38 0 40.7 37 17 4 11 34
Edgar Barclay L 27 6 7 5.01 25 21 115.0 116 64 17 47 88
Jake Cousins R 30 2 2 4.00 45 0 45.0 34 20 6 21 56
Bailey Dees R 26 5 6 5.11 26 20 105.7 106 60 17 45 83
Tim Mayza L 33 2 2 4.18 56 0 47.3 46 22 5 16 36
Yerry De Los Santos R 27 2 3 4.28 47 1 54.7 53 26 7 19 43
Tim Hill L 35 2 2 4.33 51 0 52.0 56 25 4 15 28
Duane Underwood Jr. R 30 2 3 4.63 35 2 44.7 43 23 5 19 36
Eric Reyzelman R 24 1 1 4.38 35 1 39.0 34 19 6 19 43
Kevin Stevens R 27 2 2 4.54 29 0 33.7 30 17 4 15 34
Joey Gerber R 28 1 2 4.60 24 1 29.3 28 15 4 14 27
Matt Sauer R 26 3 4 5.10 28 10 67.0 66 38 10 29 55
Jesus Liranzo R 30 3 4 5.01 27 2 32.3 31 18 5 15 30
Carson Coleman R 27 2 1 4.72 27 0 34.3 29 18 4 16 37
McKinley Moore R 26 2 3 5.10 29 2 30.0 27 17 4 19 30
Anthony Misiewicz L 30 2 3 4.47 44 0 48.3 48 24 7 17 45
Art Warren R 32 2 1 4.59 30 0 33.3 32 17 4 16 29
Lou Trivino R 33 3 4 4.78 40 0 37.7 37 20 5 17 36
Nick Burdi R 32 1 1 4.82 33 0 28.0 23 15 4 17 33
Colby White R 26 2 2 5.06 36 2 37.3 34 21 5 21 36
Leonardo Pestana R 26 1 2 5.55 23 7 35.7 35 22 7 16 34
Victor González L 29 3 3 4.85 46 0 42.7 41 23 5 19 29
Luis Velasquez R 23 3 3 4.88 34 1 48.0 44 26 7 27 45
Ryan Anderson L 26 2 4 5.02 27 1 37.7 36 21 5 16 31
Tanner Myatt R 27 2 2 4.91 29 0 36.7 33 20 5 23 36
Geoff Hartlieb R 31 3 3 4.86 38 0 53.7 52 29 7 23 45
Cristian Hernandez R 24 2 3 5.29 30 5 51.0 53 30 9 21 40
Baron Stuart R 25 5 7 5.50 20 20 93.3 101 57 16 39 59
Jordany Ventura R 24 3 5 5.46 22 11 64.3 63 39 10 40 51
Alex Mauricio R 28 2 3 5.10 33 0 42.3 42 24 6 20 35
Cole Ayers R 25 3 4 4.79 41 0 56.3 55 30 9 22 49
Danny Watson R 24 3 5 5.11 37 0 44.0 43 25 7 18 35
Yorlin Calderon R 23 2 4 5.14 35 2 61.3 61 35 10 22 48
Carlos Gomez R 27 2 4 5.36 30 0 43.7 43 26 7 25 35

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ 3ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Max Fried 162.7 8.1 2.7 0.8 7.2% 21.9% .277 120 115 3.55 83 3.1
Gerrit Cole 143.3 9.4 2.4 1.3 6.7% 25.7% .276 113 107 3.80 88 2.4
Nestor Cortes 152.3 8.5 2.2 1.2 6.1% 23.2% .278 107 104 3.80 93 2.3
Carlos Rodón 151.3 9.9 2.9 1.3 7.8% 26.3% .280 102 97 3.98 98 1.9
Luis Gil 132.7 10.2 4.5 1.2 11.6% 26.3% .273 100 100 4.21 100 1.5
Clarke Schmidt 106.0 9.2 3.0 1.0 7.9% 24.3% .288 106 104 3.80 95 1.5
Marcus Stroman 137.0 6.6 3.2 1.1 8.2% 17.2% .285 95 91 4.38 105 1.3
Will Warren 122.3 8.5 3.1 1.1 8.1% 22.4% .290 94 96 4.08 107 1.1
Ben Shields 94.7 8.7 2.9 1.1 7.8% 23.1% .288 96 99 4.18 104 0.9
Trystan Vrieling 131.7 6.9 2.9 1.3 7.4% 17.8% .290 89 94 4.55 113 0.8
Jonathan Loáisiga 47.3 7.4 2.3 0.6 6.2% 20.1% .283 128 124 3.24 78 0.7
Luke Weaver 83.7 9.6 2.9 1.2 7.7% 25.5% .291 101 97 3.84 99 0.7
Cody Poteet 69.3 8.0 3.0 1.3 7.8% 21.2% .277 99 97 4.35 101 0.7
Clayton Beeter 79.0 9.6 4.2 1.3 10.7% 24.3% .278 95 98 4.42 105 0.7
Sean Boyle 75.3 7.3 2.4 1.2 6.3% 19.4% .284 93 95 4.40 107 0.6
Zach Messinger 124.3 7.2 3.5 1.3 8.8% 18.4% .285 88 91 4.80 114 0.6
Chase Hampton 86.7 8.0 3.1 1.5 8.0% 20.5% .280 90 96 4.61 111 0.6
Ian Hamilton 47.7 10.2 3.8 0.8 9.9% 26.7% .289 121 117 3.39 82 0.6
Cam Schlittler 103.3 8.2 3.7 1.3 9.3% 20.8% .287 89 93 4.70 112 0.6
Yoendrys Gómez 80.3 8.5 3.9 1.2 10.1% 22.0% .281 90 95 4.60 111 0.5
Tanner Tully 93.3 5.2 2.3 1.2 6.0% 13.5% .292 87 87 4.56 114 0.5
Josh Maciejewski 72.3 7.3 3.2 1.2 8.3% 18.8% .288 92 92 4.55 109 0.4
Brandon Leibrandt 71.7 7.0 2.6 1.4 6.8% 18.1% .294 89 85 4.62 113 0.4
Brock Selvidge 97.3 6.7 3.3 1.3 8.4% 16.9% .288 86 91 4.80 116 0.4
Mark Leiter Jr. 62.3 10.7 3.6 1.3 9.5% 28.0% .283 99 93 4.17 101 0.4
Tommy Kahnle 44.3 9.7 4.1 1.0 10.7% 25.7% .268 107 96 3.97 93 0.3
Cody Morris 41.3 9.4 4.6 1.1 11.6% 23.8% .284 100 100 4.34 100 0.3
JT Brubaker 76.7 8.3 3.1 1.5 7.9% 21.6% .290 86 83 4.74 117 0.3
Scott Effross 40.7 7.5 2.4 0.9 6.6% 20.4% .280 110 106 3.67 91 0.3
Edgar Barclay 115.0 6.9 3.7 1.3 9.3% 17.5% .285 82 85 4.98 121 0.2
Jake Cousins 45.0 11.2 4.2 1.2 10.9% 29.2% .269 103 101 4.22 97 0.2
Bailey Dees 105.7 7.1 3.8 1.4 9.7% 17.9% .283 81 84 5.18 124 0.1
Tim Mayza 47.3 6.8 3.0 1.0 7.9% 17.8% .287 99 94 4.11 101 0.1
Yerry De Los Santos 54.7 7.1 3.1 1.2 8.2% 18.5% .282 96 97 4.42 104 0.0
Tim Hill 52.0 4.8 2.6 0.7 6.7% 12.6% .295 95 90 4.20 105 0.0
Duane Underwood Jr. 44.7 7.3 3.8 1.0 9.7% 18.5% .286 89 90 4.50 112 0.0
Eric Reyzelman 39.0 9.9 4.4 1.4 11.2% 25.4% .283 94 100 4.59 106 0.0
Kevin Stevens 33.7 9.1 4.0 1.1 10.3% 23.3% .286 91 96 4.31 110 0.0
Joey Gerber 29.3 8.3 4.3 1.2 10.9% 20.9% .289 90 90 4.54 112 -0.1
Matt Sauer 67.0 7.4 3.9 1.3 9.8% 18.6% .284 81 84 5.04 124 -0.1
Jesus Liranzo 32.3 8.4 4.2 1.4 10.4% 20.8% .286 82 82 4.91 121 -0.1
Carson Coleman 34.3 9.7 4.2 1.0 10.7% 24.7% .281 87 90 4.46 114 -0.1
McKinley Moore 30.0 9.0 5.7 1.2 13.9% 21.9% .284 81 87 5.11 124 -0.1
Anthony Misiewicz 48.3 8.4 3.2 1.3 8.1% 21.4% .297 92 90 4.32 108 -0.1
Art Warren 33.3 7.8 4.3 1.1 10.8% 19.6% .289 90 86 4.53 111 -0.2
Lou Trivino 37.7 8.6 4.1 1.2 10.2% 21.6% .302 86 84 4.51 116 -0.2
Nick Burdi 28.0 10.6 5.5 1.3 13.4% 26.0% .279 86 82 5.04 117 -0.2
Colby White 37.3 8.7 5.1 1.2 12.5% 21.4% .284 82 85 4.84 123 -0.2
Leonardo Pestana 35.7 8.6 4.0 1.8 10.1% 21.4% .283 74 79 5.42 135 -0.2
Victor González 42.7 6.1 4.0 1.1 10.1% 15.4% .273 85 86 4.96 118 -0.2
Luis Velasquez 48.0 8.4 5.1 1.3 12.3% 20.5% .278 85 91 5.07 118 -0.3
Ryan Anderson 37.7 7.4 3.8 1.2 9.6% 18.6% .282 82 85 4.93 122 -0.3
Tanner Myatt 36.7 8.8 5.6 1.2 13.7% 21.4% .283 84 86 5.03 119 -0.3
Geoff Hartlieb 53.7 7.5 3.9 1.2 9.6% 18.8% .287 85 84 4.65 118 -0.3
Cristian Hernandez 51.0 7.1 3.7 1.6 9.2% 17.5% .288 78 83 5.37 128 -0.3
Baron Stuart 93.3 5.7 3.8 1.5 9.3% 14.0% .285 75 79 5.59 133 -0.3
Jordany Ventura 64.3 7.1 5.6 1.4 13.3% 16.9% .279 76 80 5.81 132 -0.3
Alex Mauricio 42.3 7.4 4.3 1.3 10.5% 18.4% .288 81 83 4.86 124 -0.3
Cole Ayers 56.3 7.8 3.5 1.4 8.8% 19.6% .284 86 89 4.85 116 -0.4
Danny Watson 44.0 7.2 3.7 1.4 9.3% 18.1% .277 81 87 5.22 124 -0.4
Yorlin Calderon 61.3 7.0 3.2 1.5 8.3% 18.1% .280 80 86 5.20 124 -0.4
Carlos Gomez 43.7 7.2 5.2 1.4 12.4% 17.3% .279 77 78 5.72 130 -0.6

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3
Max Fried Tom Glavine Mike Minor CC Sabathia
Gerrit Cole Tom Seaver Dolf Luque Curt Schilling
Nestor Cortes Denny Neagle Cole Hamels Jon Lester
Carlos Rodón Steve Carlton Mark Langston Chris Short
Luis Gil Chan Ho Park Jose DeLeon Bobo Newsom
Clarke Schmidt Josh Johnson Kelly Downs Red Hardy
Marcus Stroman Rick Mahler Tim Belcher Marino Pieretti
Will Warren Todd Stottlemyre Chris Carpenter Tim Worrell
Ben Shields Dick Egan Joe Sambito Mark Redman
Trystan Vrieling Peter Urrizola Roy Pardue Camilo Estevis
Jonathan Loáisiga Jim Johnson Tommy Hunter Carlos Almanzar
Luke Weaver Frank Sullivan Orlando Pena Mark Leiter
Cody Poteet Rip Collins Tommy Greene Bruce Kison
Clayton Beeter David Cone Greg Harris Jim Gott
Sean Boyle Glen Stabelfeld Bobby Munoz Ricardo Delgado
Zach Messinger Wade Davis Braden Shipley A.J. Cole
Chase Hampton Tyler Wells Chadd Blasko Sonny Garcia
Ian Hamilton Don Aase Fred Gladding Todd Jones
Cam Schlittler Nelson Figueroa Mitch Keller George Gaffney
Yoendrys Gómez Ben Rivera Hank Webb Jack McDowell
Tanner Tully J.R. Mathes David Hurlbut Dave Gassner
Josh Maciejewski Matt Blank Brian Tallet Matt Ruebel
Brandon Leibrandt Chris Haney Ramon Garcia Jack Kralick
Brock Selvidge Brock Burke Timothy Zettel Daniel Rosenbaum
Mark Leiter Jr. Dan Miceli Stan Williams Danny Cox
Tommy Kahnle Troy Percival Pedro Strop Curt Leskanic
Cody Morris Horacio Pina Adam Jorgenson Fred Lasher
JT Brubaker Stan Spencer Mike Gardiner Seth Etherton
Scott Effross Chad Bradford Ron Taylor Bob Howry
Edgar Barclay Steve Hammond Kyle Hart Neal Heaton
Jake Cousins Troy Percival Juan Cruz Jim Duffalo
Bailey Dees Parker Bridwell Jordan Romano Gil Meche
Tim Mayza Francisley Bueno Bryan Eversgerd Will Brunson
Yerry De Los Santos Derek Law Juan Carlos Oviedo Rob Delaney
Tim Hill Dave Koslo Fred Baczewski Chad Zerbe
Duane Underwood Jr. Ryan Mattheus Larry Rothschild Ed Bauta
Eric Reyzelman Julian Vasquez Dana Ridenour Ricky Evans
Kevin Stevens Tim Peters Brent Stentz Jake Meyer
Joey Gerber Cloyd Boyer Duane Shaffer Dave Wallace
Matt Sauer Victor Alcantara Austin Brice Julio DePaula
Jesus Liranzo Ed Palmquist Lee Marcheskie John Briscoe
Carson Coleman Johnny Humphries Fred Lasher Eddie Gaillard
McKinley Moore Joe Bruno Jim Coffman Bob Foderaro
Anthony Misiewicz Chad Hartvigson Tim Hill Ed Vande Berg
Art Warren Jason Childers Dooley Womack Freddy Schmidt
Lou Trivino Matt Turner Antonio Alfonseca Mike Perez
Nick Burdi Bob Babcock Dave Baldwin Rich DeLucia
Colby White Rick Raether Franklyn German Joe Kerrigan
Leonardo Pestana Greg Watson Joseph Jeran Doug Welenc
Victor González Fred Green Fred Scherman Bob Myrick
Luis Velasquez Chris Lemp Bob Blyth John Harms
Ryan Anderson Eric Jaques Charlie Rogers Jared Locke
Tanner Myatt Barry Manuel Joe Kerrigan Franklyn German
Geoff Hartlieb Brian Stokes Mitchell Boggs Brooks Brown
Cristian Hernandez Rod Seip Hut Smith Joe Zanghi
Baron Stuart Eric Ruth Wil Crowe Keury Mella
Jordany Ventura Rafael Dolis John Dillinger Steve Martin
Alex Mauricio Bobby Moore Matt Stites Aaron Kurcz
Cole Ayers Zac Reininger Harrison Bishop Jack Hartsell
Danny Watson Doug Silva Brian Evans Steve Narleski
Yorlin Calderon Evan Rust Burris Warner Cam Hill
Carlos Gomez James Thornton Kris Keller Nate Griep

Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Max Fried .233 .297 .373 .227 .284 .351 4.0 1.9 2.96 4.13
Gerrit Cole .221 .285 .388 .232 .278 .389 3.3 1.5 3.12 4.25
Nestor Cortes .225 .280 .391 .236 .283 .394 3.3 1.2 3.26 4.56
Carlos Rodón .214 .275 .333 .230 .298 .411 2.9 0.5 3.45 4.89
Luis Gil .227 .325 .382 .205 .303 .356 2.7 0.0 3.53 5.14
Clarke Schmidt .245 .321 .401 .221 .285 .357 2.1 0.6 3.38 4.69
Marcus Stroman .257 .328 .414 .247 .307 .393 2.0 0.4 3.89 4.90
Will Warren .256 .333 .435 .229 .289 .357 2.0 0.2 3.84 5.07
Ben Shields .225 .304 .392 .246 .319 .402 1.6 0.1 3.76 5.06
Trystan Vrieling .277 .346 .441 .242 .286 .428 1.7 -0.1 4.11 5.24
Jonathan Loáisiga .247 .307 .358 .222 .271 .323 1.1 0.3 2.69 4.13
Luke Weaver .242 .316 .386 .228 .282 .395 1.5 -0.1 3.33 5.08
Cody Poteet .243 .297 .419 .237 .308 .397 1.2 0.2 3.63 4.82
Clayton Beeter .240 .333 .418 .214 .303 .364 1.3 0.0 3.77 5.09
Sean Boyle .270 .344 .453 .231 .284 .372 1.1 0.0 3.86 5.12
Zach Messinger .260 .343 .442 .246 .315 .415 1.4 -0.2 4.23 5.28
Chase Hampton .258 .328 .447 .236 .292 .421 1.3 -0.1 3.97 5.27
Ian Hamilton .207 .309 .341 .227 .296 .340 1.2 0.0 2.66 4.36
Cam Schlittler .239 .344 .424 .252 .313 .413 1.3 -0.1 4.10 5.19
Yoendrys Gómez .232 .316 .384 .242 .333 .414 1.1 -0.1 4.00 5.23
Tanner Tully .263 .313 .415 .277 .322 .445 1.0 0.0 4.26 5.26
Josh Maciejewski .233 .293 .333 .263 .333 .459 0.9 -0.1 3.93 5.10
Brandon Leibrandt .253 .312 .444 .269 .322 .446 0.8 -0.2 4.08 5.32
Brock Selvidge .214 .288 .321 .278 .343 .480 0.9 -0.3 4.39 5.42
Mark Leiter Jr. .214 .301 .402 .229 .319 .373 1.1 -0.4 3.32 5.28
Tommy Kahnle .218 .307 .333 .207 .300 .379 0.9 -0.2 2.94 5.10
Cody Morris .247 .345 .438 .214 .309 .333 0.6 -0.2 3.62 5.07
JT Brubaker .262 .333 .476 .244 .308 .417 0.9 -0.3 4.15 5.48
Scott Effross .242 .306 .379 .233 .278 .367 0.6 -0.2 3.15 4.65
Edgar Barclay .215 .301 .378 .274 .347 .454 1.0 -0.6 4.45 5.67
Jake Cousins .211 .341 .366 .200 .294 .368 0.7 -0.4 3.11 5.06
Bailey Dees .247 .348 .434 .263 .325 .447 0.7 -0.6 4.62 5.67
Tim Mayza .225 .276 .310 .265 .333 .442 0.5 -0.4 3.52 5.06
Yerry De Los Santos .247 .324 .452 .250 .305 .375 0.4 -0.4 3.75 4.89
Tim Hill .241 .304 .325 .288 .343 .432 0.3 -0.4 3.80 5.11
Duane Underwood Jr. .253 .337 .430 .242 .324 .368 0.4 -0.4 3.90 5.34
Eric Reyzelman .236 .337 .431 .224 .310 .395 0.3 -0.4 3.79 5.10
Kevin Stevens .250 .342 .422 .215 .307 .354 0.2 -0.4 3.95 5.48
Joey Gerber .259 .355 .463 .233 .299 .383 0.2 -0.4 3.87 5.41
Matt Sauer .268 .371 .455 .240 .311 .407 0.3 -0.6 4.57 5.75
Jesus Liranzo .279 .371 .475 .215 .297 .385 0.1 -0.5 4.35 5.87
Carson Coleman .217 .347 .400 .229 .321 .357 0.1 -0.5 4.07 5.70
McKinley Moore .241 .379 .407 .230 .333 .410 0.1 -0.4 4.49 6.08
Anthony Misiewicz .239 .289 .394 .261 .331 .445 0.4 -0.6 3.62 5.32
Art Warren .250 .328 .400 .243 .333 .414 0.1 -0.5 4.01 5.54
Lou Trivino .273 .360 .500 .235 .315 .358 0.1 -0.6 4.04 5.87
Nick Burdi .220 .361 .400 .218 .343 .364 0.1 -0.6 3.89 6.24
Colby White .243 .361 .414 .233 .321 .397 0.1 -0.6 4.49 6.01
Leonardo Pestana .250 .351 .469 .250 .326 .461 0.1 -0.6 4.81 6.57
Victor González .217 .309 .300 .264 .352 .453 0.1 -0.6 4.26 5.77
Luis Velasquez .244 .363 .419 .232 .325 .404 0.1 -0.7 4.28 5.58
Ryan Anderson .205 .300 .364 .265 .356 .431 0.0 -0.6 4.45 5.67
Tanner Myatt .258 .395 .435 .218 .311 .385 0.0 -0.7 4.31 5.90
Geoff Hartlieb .253 .324 .444 .245 .333 .382 0.1 -0.8 4.23 5.73
Cristian Hernandez .261 .337 .424 .264 .344 .491 0.0 -0.8 4.73 6.12
Baron Stuart .258 .333 .437 .284 .361 .497 0.1 -0.9 5.12 6.04
Jordany Ventura .256 .377 .416 .246 .356 .444 0.1 -0.8 4.95 6.04
Alex Mauricio .257 .353 .432 .250 .320 .424 0.0 -0.7 4.45 5.92
Cole Ayers .240 .319 .430 .258 .328 .433 0.1 -0.8 4.22 5.53
Danny Watson .235 .316 .412 .264 .356 .460 0.0 -0.7 4.46 5.73
Yorlin Calderon .262 .344 .439 .248 .327 .444 0.0 -0.9 4.56 5.79
Carlos Gomez .273 .378 .506 .234 .348 .383 -0.3 -1.0 4.80 6.25

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2025 due to injury, and players who were released in 2024. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Ukulele Dixieland Jazz band that only covers songs by The Smiths, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.11.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky.


Effectively Wild Episode 2257: You Better Fried Your Mind Instead

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the end of the Winter Meetings, then discuss the rest of what down in Dallas: the Max Fried signing and where the Yankees roster stands, the Garrett Crochet trade, referring to a single player as a “Red Sox,” the Andrés Giménez (and Spencer Horwitz) trades, the Rangers re-signing Nathan Eovaldi and trading for Jake Burger, the Nationals landing the no. 1 overall pick in the draft lottery, Washington’s pitching development philosophy, the saga of Braggo Roth, and more, plus a few postscript updates.

Audio intro: Jimmy Kramer, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio outro: The Gagnés, “Effectively Wild Theme

Link to Dan S. on Fried
Link to Jaffe on Fried
Link to Clemens on Crochet
Link to Passan tweet
Link to Clemens on Giménez
Link to team DRS
Link to team FRV
Link to Longenhagen on Giménez
Link to Baumann on García
Link to Andrews on Eovaldi
Link to Baumann on Burger
Link to payrolls page
Link to Rule 5 reports
Link to Rizzo quote
Link to Nats spring sign
Link to Nats preview pod
Link to 2023 team Stuff+
Link to 2024 team Stuff+
Link to team fastball velo
Link to team pitching WAR
Link to Braggo bio
Link to Braggo wiki
Link to A’s and Fried
Link to Sheehan on Crochet
Link to EW gift subscriptions

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