When Juan Soto signed with the Mets this week, there were four parties who should’ve been celebrating: First, the Mets, who nabbed the biggest on-base threat since Barry Bonds, and in the process got to blow raspberries at their old money neighbors. Second, Soto himself, who was already grotesquely wealthy but is now due the kind of lucre that will allow him to oppress multitudes if he so chooses. Third, Scott Boras, who in addition to being paid a handsome commission proved that he still had his mojo after a mortifying 2023-24 offseason.
The fourth winner: Kyle Tucker. The “next-best thing” to a 26-year-old free agent with a .421 career OBP, to someone who is projected by ZiPS to accumulate more than 100 WAR, is… well there’s no such animal. But Tucker is as close as you’ll get these days. If Soto is worth $51 million a year, what is Tucker worth? I don’t know. Neither do the Houston Astros, but they’re clearly not interested in finding out.
Benny Sieu-Imagn Images and Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
It’s a ritual as old as time. The Brewers develop an intriguing young player into an All-Star, and a fun one at that. Next, that player approaches free agency – that’s how time works. The Brewers then trade that player to a contending team, getting back a few players with multiple years of team control. Finally, the Brewers develop those players into stars, spin the wheel again, and the band plays on. Today’s edition: Milwaukee traded Devin Williams to the Yankees in exchange for Nestor Cortes and infield prospect Caleb Durbin, as Jeff Passan first reported.
Williams is the rare pitcher who isn’t even as famous as his best pitch. His screwball/changeup hybrid is nicknamed The Airbender, and it’s been making major leaguers look like overmatched kids for years. On the back of that pitch and a plus fastball, he’s compiled a career ERA of 1.83 over five-plus seasons of dominance. His 39.4% career strikeout rate reads like a typo. He rose to prominence during the 2020 season, and he’s been the second-best reliever in baseball since then, trailing only Emmanuel Clase.
It doesn’t matter what you call the pitch; Williams’ results speak for themselves. “Changeup-first dominant closer” only sounds fluky until you look at the raw data. He misses more bats than Josh Hader. He might even be better than his run-prevention numbers would suggest, because the runs he gives up come in bunches. In 2023, for example, he gave up 10 earned runs all year, and four were in a single game. The upshot: He’s first among relievers in win probability added by a ton, because a truly outrageous number of his games end in scoreless innings. He’s not Mariano Rivera, but he might be the closest thing in today’s game: an automatic ninth inning. Read the rest of this entry »
DALLAS — What a week, huh? Juan Soto sparked the Winter Meetings on Sunday night when he agreed to sign with the Mets for 15 years, $765 million, some incentives, and one complementary suite instead of returning to the Yankees. The Yankees then pivoted on Tuesday and signed Max Fried to the largest contract ever for a lefty pitcher. Willy Adames signed with the Giants for way more than anyone expected. Oh, and the White Sox got in on the fun, too!
The Matrix was popping off, so much so that I couldn’t stop myself from pulling out my computer during dinner to update the Soto signing. As the great television detective Adrian Monk would say, “Here’s what happened.”
The outfield in Queens would appear to be solidified now, with Brandon Nimmo in left, Soto in right, and Tyrone Taylor and Jose Siri splitting time in center. DH, for now at least, looks like Starling Marte’s job, but the Mets certainly are not done spending and could look to upgrade their offense here. They are still very much in the market to re-sign Pete Alonso, who would likely be their everyday first baseman but could also see more time at DH depending on what other moves they make. Third baseman Mark Vientos has made strides as a defender, but he could slide over to first base or get more starts at DH. The Mets could also look to sign someone for the DH job outright. For example, Joc Pederson would fit well as a platoon partner for Marte.
Effect on Other Teams
Many of the deals below wouldn’t have happened this week if Soto were still on the free agent market. The Yankees certainly wouldn’t have signed Fried to his contract if Soto had accepted their $760 million offer, and the Mets very well could have spent some of the Soto money elsewhere. The cascading effects of an offseason are on display most prominently during the Winter Meetings, with quick responses needed lest you lose out on a player.
Effect on Similar Players
Similar players? What similar players?
Yankees Sign Max Fried for Eight Years, $218 Million
The Yankees were aggressive in turning to Fried after losing Soto, and they now have a surplus of starting pitchers, at least in quantity if not aptitude. Gerrit Cole, Fried, and Carlos Rodón will fill out the top three spots in the rotation, with Luis Gil, Marcus Stroman, and Clarke Schmidt battling for the last two as of Friday afternoon. The Yankees could use one of them in a trade for either Cody Bellinger of the Cubs or Nolan Arenado of the Cardinals to improve their offense. Earlier Friday, the Yankees dealt another of their capable starters, Nestor Cortes, to the Brewers for one of the best relievers in baseball, Devin Williams (more on this trade later). If New York does decide to trade another starter, Gil (four years of club control) and Schmidt (three years) would be more valuable to other teams than Stroman.
Effect on Other Teams
Per the New York Post’s Joel Sherman, the Rangers and Red Sox were the other two teams in on Fried until the very end. The Rangers quickly pivoted to bringing back Nathan Eovaldi (more on him below), and the Red Sox counterpunched with their trade for Garrett Crochet. According to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, despite acquiring Crochet, the Red Sox are “still exploring” upgrades to their rotation, including Corbin Burnes.
Fried’s former team, the Braves, remain in the market for starting pitching, though it doesn’t look like they ever made much of an effort to retain the lefty. They haven’t had any known interest in Burnes, either, and they might even be too far apart from Charlie Morton, who should be modestly priced. Perhaps they reach for the bottom of the shelf for an arm like Martín Pérez, Spencer Turnbull, Joe Ross, or Patrick Corbin to add needed depth behind their solid front three of Chris Sale, Reynaldo López, and Spencer Schwellenbach.
Effect on Similar Players
Burnes and agent Scott Boras have to be ecstatic after seeing Fried’s contract, as the lefty beat his median prediction (six years, $156 million) by nearly 40%. The same bump for Burnes’ median prediction (seven years, $217 million) would have him signing for over $300 million. Boras may well shoot for that number on a nine-year deal for Burnes, who’s a year younger than Fried.
Giants Sign Willy Adames for Seven Years, $182 Million
The Giants needed a shortstop, and they couldn’t have done any better than Adames. His defense weirdly took a step back in 2024, but considering his performance before that, along with his reputation, I believe his struggles to be more of a one-season blip rather than the start of a troubling trend. While new president of baseball operations Buster Posey may make moves to improve the San Francisco offense — LaMonte Wade Jr. and Mike Yastrzemski could reportedly be had in trades — it’s a deep enough group. Upgrading the Giants’ pitching is a more pressing concern.
Effect on Other Teams
If you wanted to sign a starting shortstop to be in the Opening Day lineup, you only had one great option, and now you have zero. Ha-Seong Kim has a ton of upside, but his timetable is unclear after shoulder surgery. (He’s expected to miss at least April.) Jose Iglesias had excellent results bouncing around the infield for the Mets, but his xBA and xwOBA do not inspire confidence that he’ll keep it up. Paul DeJong has some pop and plays solid defense, but he is extremely streaky. All three of those guys will have no problem getting big league deals, but they’re not Adames.
Effect on Similar Players
There are no free agent shortstops of Adames’ caliber, so those available at the position shouldn’t look at his contract and say, “Hey, great for me! I want that!” Alex Bregman, on the other hand, can use Adames as a decent measuring stick. Bregman is two years older than Adames and plays a less premium position, but they had similar seasons on offense (Adames, 119 wRC+; Bregman, 118), and Bregman’s had a better career peak (though that can only take him so far).
Adames’ AAV but with five years instead of seven gives Bregman a solid minimum to target ($130 million). Fortunately for him, he’s already got an offer from his former team with an extra year tacked on. It stands to reason, then, that Bregman might well be shooting for Adames’ exact deal if not better, and you better believe Boras is going to try his hardest to get his client $200 million.
Rangers Re-Sign Nathan Eovaldi for Three Years, $75 Million
Eovaldi adds much-needed stability to a Rangers rotation that currently features Jacob deGrom, Jon Gray, Cody Bradford, and Tyler Mahle, who combined for just 38 big league starts last year to Eovaldi’s 29. Kumar Rocker, Dane Dunning, Emiliano Teodo, and Jack Leiter are next in line, so perhaps the Rangers feel they’ve got enough to make it work and can now turn their attention to their bullpen.
Effect on Other Teams
The Braves were the other team with significant buzz regarding Eovaldi, though they haven’t shown much willingness to spend this offseason, so I doubt they came anywhere near the Rangers’ offer. Reuniting with Morton or signing another stable veteran like Lance Lynn or Kyle Gibson feels more in line with where the Braves are at right now, especially with Spencer Strider working his way back from internal brace surgery.
Effect on Similar Players
They’re both encumbered by qualifying offers, but Nick Pivetta and Sean Manaea are both roughly in the same tier as Eovaldi, whose median contract prediction was two years for $45 million. Considering Eovaldi garnered a surprising third year, it isn’t out of the question that Pivetta would get a four-year deal. Meanwhile, Manaea looks to be in good position to beat Eovaldi’s AAV on a three- or four-year deal, with nine figures well within the realm of possibility.
Orioles Sign Tyler O’Neill (Three Years, $48.5 Million, with post-2025 Opt Out) and Gary Sánchez (One Year, $8.5 Million)
If the Orioles make any further changes to their offense, they’ll likely have to subtract before they add. Heston Kjerstad looks plenty deserving of playing time, but he’s not currently on the projected roster. Trading either Ryan O’Hearn or Ryan Mountcastle would make sense, and it isn’t out of the question that they could trade Cedric Mullins — with Colton Cowser more than capable of handling center field — to free up a spot for Kjerstad in the corner outfield. Catcher is all set with Sánchez joining Adley Rutschman, eliminating the possibility of reunion with James McCann.
Effect on Other Teams
O’Neill’s injury history likely gave some teams pause and surely dampened his earnings, but on a rate basis, no free agent bat showed power as prodigious. In fact, he was fourth in the league in AB/HR among all 20-homer hitters. That’s not to say the options are sparse, though. Teoscar Hernández is coming off a fuller season than O’Neill, and historically he’s been much healthier. Anthony Santander, who almost surely won’t return to the Orioles with O’Neill in the fold, has big pop from both sides. They’ll cost more than O’Neill, who was in something of a class of his own among outfielders regarding his contract predictions. (O’Neill’s median prediction was three years and $40 million, which he beat handily, not to mention the opt-out.)
As for the catching market, it’s now pretty bare, with Carson Kelly reportedly closing in on a deal with the Cubs. Yasmani Grandal, Elias Díaz, and McCann are the three catchers left who have at least decent odds of securing an MLB deal.
Effect on Similar Players
While Santander and Hernández are in another class of player and contract prediction, they still both serve to benefit from O’Neill’s deal being better than expected, with an opt-out to boot. It might be tough for Santander to beat his median prediction of five years and $100.5 million by much, if at all, but Hernández ought to be aiming higher than three years, $70.5 million after seeing what O’Neill got. Jurickson Profar is another bat out there, and while he’s quite different from O’Neill, his contract predictions were similar. He may be able to get a fourth year or at least a heftier AAV on a three-year deal.
Mets Sign Clay Holmes for Three Years, $38 Million
The Mets lost three starting pitchers to free agency, with Luis Severino shipping off to Sacramento and Manaea and Jose Quintana still on the open market. They’ve filled two of those spots by signing Frankie Montas and Holmes, who is expected to transition from high-leverage reliever to starter. That leaves Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Paul Blackburn, and Tylor Megill as the only other healthy pitchers on the 40-man who started games this past season. Adding Holmes shouldn’t and won’t keep the Mets out of the starting pitching market, especially because they could use a six-man rotation to accommodate Senga’s schedule and limit Holmes’ innings. As noted on the Matrix in blue cells, the Mets have expressed interest in virtually every starter still out there.
Effect on Other Teams
Holmes’ pending conversion to the rotation puts teams in a weird spot; before he signed, some clubs considered the move as well, while others preferred to keep him in the bullpen. That means there aren’t many clean pivots for teams because their needs vary. The one comparable pitcher, though, is Jeff Hoffman. He is coming off a better relief season than Holmes, but he is also a candidate to move into a rotation, albeit with a very different profile from Holmes.
Effect on Similar Players
Holmes handily beat his median prediction of three years and $30 million and was able to secure an opt-out as well, good news for Hoffman if he too makes the move to the rotation. Hoffman, like Holmes, is entering his age-32 season, and comes with a slightly higher median contract prediction of three years and $33 million. Might he be able to get something like three years and $42 million with an opt out?
Guardians Sign Shane Bieber for Two Years, $26 Million (2026 player option)
Immediately, there’s no real impact on the Guardians besides to their payroll. Bieber will miss the start of the season and could reasonably be out for the entire first half recovering from Tommy John surgery after making just two starts in 2024. The Guardians could perhaps use another healthy starter to team up with Tanner Bibee, Luis L. Ortiz, Ben Lively, and Gavin Williams in the season-opening rotation, though the club isn’t without options. Joey Cantillo, Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen, and Doug Nikhazy are others on the 40-man vying for starting spots, and Matt “Tugboat” Wilkinson’s meteoric rise through the system could continue.
Effect on Other Teams
As with the Guardians, there should be no immediate impact here. Bieber took less money to stay in a familiar spot, with the Red Sox one such team who made a strong push. Bieber offers upside at a price affordable only because he got hurt.
Effect on Similar Players
There aren’t really any pitchers who can view Bieber’s contract as a model. He’ll be out for a good chunk of the season, plus he turned down more money to stick around. The two-years-including-a-player-option model is one that other rehabbing pitchers could look to follow, albeit on a lesser scale. John Means and Brooks Raley could endeavor to control their own 2026 fates with options, as could Patrick Sandoval, though he’d be under club control via arbitration even if he turned down such an option.
The Dodgers still need another corner outfielder even with Conforto in the fold, and to that end, they’re still talking with Hernández, albeit with a gap in negotiations that may not be bridged. At any rate, I don’t think Andy Pages is going to enter the year as a starting outfielder, though he makes plenty of sense as an oft-playing bench bat.
As for the bullpen, the Dodgers aren’t simply looking to run back their championship bullpen core minus the retiring Daniel Hudson. Los Angeles is looking into signing Tanner Scott, the best lefty reliever available on the free agent market.
Effect on Other Teams
Righty relievers and lefty corner bats are always plentiful in free agency, but Treinen is arguably the nastiest of the bunch in the former group, and Conforto has a high ceiling for someone on a one-year deal. The Dodgers, along with other teams, were surely intrigued by Conforto’s 133 wRC+ away from the hitter-unfriendly Oracle Park, hence the hefty price for the pillow contract.
Effect on Similar Players
The old-but-still-nasty group of free agent relievers is strong even with Treinen and Aroldis Chapman off the board: Kirby Yates, Kenley Jansen, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, Andrew Kittredge, and Chris Martin are all 35 or older. At least some of the younger members of that group (Robertson and Martin are likely year-to-year at this point) could be in line for multi-year deals at or around Treinen’s average-annual value, with Kahnle and Kittredge sure to be cheaper and Yates likely to be more expensive.
Bounce-back lefty bats are fewer and farther between, but one player who ought to be pleased by Conforto’s contract is Max Kepler. Kepler had an injury-riddled season in which he hit just eight homers across 399 plate appearances, but his last great season (2023) was more recent than Conforto’s (2020), and he’s a better fielder, too. The Dodgers may well have blown everyone out of the water just to sign Conforto, but Kepler’s contract could still beat his median prediction of $11 million.
Tigers Sign Alex Cobb (One Year, $15 Million); Blue Jays Sign Yimi García (Two Years, $15 Million); Phillies Sign Jordan Romano (One Year, $8.5 Million)
Baumann was our resident “write about all the pitchers who ended the season injured” guy, apparently. All three ended the season hurt, and all signed for more than I thought they would. If healthy, the’ll all add much-needed stability to their new teams. Cobb will give the Tigers another “real” starter to avoid using Tyler Holton to start every other day, Romano will help cover for the potential loss of Hoffman and Carlos Estévez, and García will help backfill a bullpen that lost Romano. The Tigers may feel content with their starting pitching options at the moment, but the Blue Jays and Phillies probably have more work to do to augment the relief corps.
Effect on Other Teams
This is just what pitching costs now, apparently. If teams hadn’t recalibrated already, now’s the time to do so. Maybe waiting things out will lead to some bargain-basement prices on lower-upside pitchers, but you’re not going to find great stuff for just a couple million bucks, injury concerns be damned.
Effect on Similar Players
Remaining pitchers coming off injury-riddled or injury-shortened seasons include starters Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Trevor Williams, and Spencer Turnbull; and relievers A.J. Minter, Joe Kelly, and Danny Coulombe. They all are of varying levels of upside, but based on how the pitching market is shaping up, they should be expected to command more than we initially expected.
Tauchman will step into the White Sox’ starting lineup, at least against righties; he’s a natural platoon partner for the righty-swinging Austin Slater, and his OBP skills work great atop a thin lineup. Estrada should be Colorado’s starting second baseman, sliding the newly acquired Kyle Farmer to a utility role.
Effect on Other Teams
Plenty of players from the bargain bin are still available; teams won’t be losing sleep over missing out on Tauchman and Estrada, even with their upside.
Effect on Similar Players
This was roughly what I expected these two to get after they were cut loose by their old teams, so this isn’t a needle-mover for the market.
Yankees Re-Sign Jonathan Loáisiga (One Year, $TBD, with 2026 club option); Rangers sign Jacob Webb (One Year, $1.25 Million)
I grouped these two together not because they’re similar pitchers, but because their two teams are in similar situations. These two righties won’t be the last or best relief additions that either team makes, with each team losing three key relievers to the free agent pool. In fact, the Yankees made a bigger splash on Friday, when they traded with the Brewers for Williams. More on that later.
Effect on Other Teams
Little effect on the Yankees and Rangers also means there’s little effect on the other 28 teams. There are still relievers aplenty on the free agent board.
Effect on Similar Players
But, because Loáisiga had plenty of suitors, some of those relievers could sign in quick succession as teams pivot to other options on the market.
Trades
Red Sox Acquire Garrett Crochet From White Sox for Four Prospects
The top three pitchers in the Red Sox’ rotation have some of the best stuff of any triad in the majors, and Kutter Crawford is a nice fourth starter to have despite his homer problem. There’s not great depth beyond that, though. Richard Fitts had a nice first four starts but didn’t miss bats, Lucas Giolito’s return date from elbow surgery is uncertain, and Cooper Criswell is probably best deployed as a swingman who never faces more than 18 hitters. To that end, Burnes is still on the table for Boston, and if not Burnes, the Red Sox could look to add a lower-tier option to fill a spot.
Where the White Sox Go From Here
Crochet was by far the biggest trade chip, but the White Sox are not without players who could be of interest to other teams. Luis Robert Jr. could be on the move before the offseason is over, even though he’s coming off the worst year of his career and is at the nadir of his value. They’d surely love to unload the last three years of Andrew Benintendi’s contract, but after he had a strong second half, the Sox would have to eat quite a bit of cash to facilitate a deal. Andrew Vaughn could also be of interest to other teams. From there, they could round out the roster with some sign-and-flip candidates.
The natural move for the Cubs is to clear the outfield logjam by trading Bellinger, and I’d guess that they’re confident in their ability to do that with Tucker in the fold. Pete Crow-Armstrong was too good down the stretch to relegate to the bench, and Seiya Suzuki’s no-trade clause complicates his availability, plus he’s easily the best righty bat on the team. They could also look into a third base stopgap until Matt Shaw is ready. Yoán Moncada, Gio Urshela, and Paul DeJong would all come cheap.
Where the Astros Go From Here
No, I don’t think Taylor Trammell is actually going to be the Astros’ Opening Day right fielder, as we currently have projected. The Astros are operating under some payroll constraints but just saved about $9 million by replacing Tucker with Paredes, and they could reinvest that money into a one-year deal for Max Kepler or Alex Verdugo. I’d be surprised if the Astros brought Bregman back with Paredes in the fold, though the latter could slide over to first base and replace Jon Singleton if Bregman returns.
Toronto has majorly upgraded its defense at the expense of its offense, so the natural action here is to explore another move (or two, or three, or…) that would augment a lineup that isn’t exactly a threat besides Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and a theoretical return to form for Bo Bichette. The Jays have expressed interest in Bregman and Santander along with some more complementary bats on the market like Gleyber Torres.
Where the Pirates Go From Here
The Pirates desperately need offense this offseason, and while Horwitz is a nice get, they still should add more hitters. Having Isiah Kiner-Falefa as their leadoff batter on Opening Day, as we currently project, would be somewhere between “not ideal” and “organizational malpractice.” A reunion with Andrew McCutchen makes all the sense in the world, but that’s more of a depth move. It would behoove the Pirates to take a big swing at a big swinger to support a solid pitching staff. Santander, Teoscar Hernández, and Christian Walker each would be transformative.
Where the Guardians Go From Here
As far as a direct response to this trade is concerned, the Guards really don’t need to make one. Cleveland is teeming with infield depth and can simply use someone like Angel Martínez or Juan Brito to keep the seat warm for the eventual arrival of this year’s first overall pick Travis Bazzana. Ortiz lessens the team’s need in the rotation, too, with four spots now looking to be in pretty good shape and Triston McKenzie out of options.
Yankees Acquire Devin Williams From Brewers for Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin
Williams and Luke Weaver give the Yankees a great one-two punch in the back end of their bullpen, but they shouldn’t be done adding relief arms. We currently project New York’s bullpen to be all right-handed, so a reunion with Tim Hill would make a lot of sense. If they wanted to form probably the league’s most formidable bullpen trio, they could go big and sign Tanner Scott.
Durbin had been penciled in as the Yankees’ starting second baseman, and losing him increases the need for his former club to acquire another infielder. They’ve shown interest in third baseman Bregman, whose addition would slide Jazz Chisholm Jr. over to second, and they still desperately need to upgrade at first base; they’re reportedly in the market for Walker and Alonso. They could also re-sign Torres to play second, with Chisholm remaining at third.
Durbin will help out in the infield and is currently projected to platoon with Oliver Dunn at third, though both players are unproven, and Durbin has yet to make his MLB debut. Milwaukee has expressed interest in Ha-Seong Kim, who will miss the start of the season but has more upside than any of the team’s current infielders.
Rangers Get Jake Burger in Trade With Marlins for Three Prospects
On the surface, the Rangers have too many hitters for nine spots, with Kyle Higashioka, Josh Smith, and Leody Taveras all starting-caliber but currently projected on the bench. However, there are legitimate concerns with the health of Evan Carter coming off back surgery, Josh Jung after two wrist surgeries, and Corey Seager after hernia surgery. Burger provides needed insurance on the infield corners as well as at DH. Roster redundancy is only a problem if everyone is healthy and performing, and that’s rarely the case for any team.
Where the Marlins Go From Here
This doesn’t necessarily portend further gutting by Peter Bendix and company, with Bendix expressing a desire to give playing time to upstart youngsters like Deyvison De Los Santos and Agustin Ramirez. Jesús Sánchez could be of interest to other teams if Miami wants to open some outfield playing time for less experienced players.
Biggest Rumors of the Week
• The Tucker trade should shape Bregman’s market, as he might be the next big free agent to come off the board. Houston’s acquisition of Paredes in that deal likely closes off the chance of a reunion with Bregman, who has other teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Blue Jays) interested in him.
• A big week for starting pitcher signings leaves Burnes as the best remaining free agent by far, and he too may be nearing a decision. If the Blue Jays and Giants are indeed the favorites and one of them signs him, he’d be joining a team coming off a disappointing season but looking to turn things around quickly.
The White Sox finished the 2024 season with my fourth-ranked farm system, and now they’ve added four good prospects via their trade with the Red Sox centered around lefty starter Garrett Crochet, who is under contract for two more seasons. You can read about Crochet and the Red Sox here. Coming back to Chicago in exchange are soon-to-be 23-year-old catcher Kyle Teel, 2024 first-round pick Braden Montgomery, 22-year-old developmental righty Wikelman Gonzalez, and data darling 23-year-old infielder Chase Meidroth. Two of those players (Teel and Meidroth) have a good chance to debut in 2025.
I thought this deal was much better than what the White Sox got back from San Diego last March for two years of Dylan Cease. A blockbuster rule of thumb: Get back at least one high-probability everyday hitter. Teel fits the bill. He’s a well-rounded player who is a virtual lock to remain at catcher and who will probably hit for enough power to be the White Sox primary catcher a few years from now. Montgomery is a switch-hitter with immense lefty bat speed, and he may also turn into an everyday, power-hitting right fielder down the line. Meidroth (elite contact, no power) and Gonzalez (three good-looking pitches that don’t play due to poor control) each have a plus characteristic or two that should facilitate an eventual big league role, and both have a puncher’s chance to be more than that. While it’s painful to part with a talent like Crochet (who was a bold, injured draft pick in 2020), a four-for-one swap in which each prospect they acquired has a special skill and potentially meaningful upside gives the White Sox a great combination of depth and ceiling in this transaction. Read the rest of this entry »
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from sunny Tempe. I returned from Dallas yesterday evening, had a great time with the whole FG crew and other baseball pals, redeemed the city after ASB.
12:08
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m gonna preempt a lot of questions by posting a few links to get started…
12:09
Eric A Longenhagen: Lots of folks asking about the Crochet return. My thoughts went live a few minutes ago. Kyle Teel Headlines Solid Return Package for White Sox in Garrett Crochet Trade | FanGraphs Baseball
12:10
Eric A Longenhagen: In short: Much better than any of the deals they made last year.
12:10
Eric A Longenhagen: I also wrote up the Guardians return for Spencer Horwitz…
The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.
The fourth and final multi-candidate pairing of this series is by far the heaviest, covering two candidates who have both been connected to multiple incidents of domestic violence. Read the rest of this entry »
I’m going to show you a short video compilation I made. Can you figure out what these seven baserunning plays from the 2024 season have in common?
Admittedly, there’s a red herring among those video clips. One of them focuses on Bobby Witt Jr. stealing third base, but what I really wanted to highlight was Vinnie Pasquantino stealing second behind him. Here’s a better angle than what’s available on MLB Film Room:
For the 21st consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the New York Yankees.
Batters
The Yankees’ big problem on offense is an obvious one: Juan Soto is no longer in the lineup. Their position players are projected for 23.3 WAR, about 10 fewer wins from their 2024 total. Much of that is due to Soto’s absence, but ZiPS is also projecting Aaron Judge’s production to dip by three or four wins. That’s not a knock on Judge; remember, he put up 11.2 WAR last season, and no projection system worth anything would expect him not to regress in 2025.
Judge’s projection is still a dynamite one, but unfortunately for the Yankees, he stands alone in stardom in the lineup. There are a lot of good projections here. The Austin Wells/Jose Trevino catching tandem and shortstop Anthony Volpe are projected to eclipse 3.0 WAR. ZiPS expects Jazz Chisholm Jr. to be their second-best position player, and outfielders Jasson Domínguez and Trent Grisham to have solid campaigns. The problem is this group isn’t that exciting. Except for Judge, of course. The Yankees had the no. 2 offense in baseball (117 wRC+) in 2024, but unless they make some significant upgrades between now and Opening Day, expect them to take a step back at the plate.
ZiPS sees DH and first base as the two biggest problems in this lineup. The projections are tremendously unexcited about a Ben Rice/DJ LeMahieu timeshare at first. Giancarlo Stanton had a terrific postseason – and ZiPS factors in that production – but he was still only a .233/.298/.475 hitter in the regular season. Moreover, considering he turned 35 last month, he’s more likely to decline than improve moving forward. Barring injury, Stanton is going to be the Yankees’ regular DH in 2025, but the team could (read: should) add a first baseman over the next few months.
On the plus side, ZiPS thinks New York’s patchwork of second base options should adequately replace free agent Gleyber Torres if he signs elswhere.
The last concern ZiPS has is the organization’s minor league depth, especially on offense. The projections for Spencer Jones are much worse than the scouting consensus.
Pitchers
The Yankees overpaid this week when they agreed to sign Max Fried to the largest contract ever for a lefty pitcher, but that doesn’t mean it was a bad deal. On the contrary, because there is a lot of injury risk in this rotation, it was crucial for the Yankees to add a top-of-the-rotation starter, and ZiPS projects Fried to be their best pitcher this season by WAR. Some of Gerrit Cole’s projected dip is due to his missing a chunk of time in 2024 with an elbow injury, but that’s far from the only source of concern here. Now 34, Cole is allowing more contact these days, a trend that started in his 2023 Cy Young season, not this past year. ZiPS also projects Luis Gil to regress toward the mean, and it sees Carlos Rodón as an injury risk. Don’t get me wrong, the Yankees have a good starting rotation, especially if their pitchers stay healthy, but this group is a step or two below the top-shelf units of the Phillies and Dodgers.
ZiPS is more optimistic than Steamer is about New York’s bullpen. You won’t actually find relievers with projected ERAs above four until you get very deep in the pen, where you’ll see names like JT Brubaker and Yerry De Los Santos. While an extra relief arm or two would be welcome, I don’t think boosting the bullpen ought to be the team’s biggest priority.
All told, the Yankees are projected to finish with a win total in the high-80s or low-90s. That’s not ideal, of course, but that’s about where the Orioles sit right now as well, and nobody else in the division has a better projection. It’ll be interesting to see what the Yankees do the next few months.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2025 due to injury, and players who were released in 2024. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Ukulele Dixieland Jazz band that only covers songs by The Smiths, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.11.
Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the end of the Winter Meetings, then discuss the rest of what down in Dallas: the Max Fried signing and where the Yankees roster stands, the Garrett Crochet trade, referring to a single player as a “Red Sox,” the Andrés Giménez (and Spencer Horwitz) trades, the Rangers re-signing Nathan Eovaldi and trading for Jake Burger, the Nationals landing the no. 1 overall pick in the draft lottery, Washington’s pitching development philosophy, the saga of Braggo Roth, and more, plus a few postscript updates.
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