Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Andrew Friedman’s comments about the Brewers, non-baseball historical comps for Pat Murphy’s unprecedented third consecutive Manager of the Year Award, and what it would take for him to extend the streak to four. Then (27:17) Meg breaks down her NL Rookie of the Year ballot, followed by additional discussion of why the Cubs won’t sign Tarik Skubal, Scott Boras puns, Ty France’s roof ball, a few stray signings/hirings, and NPB ghost wins.
In the days before the 2021-22 lockout, there was an unprecedented leaguewide free agent spending bacchanal that set high expectations for this November. On Tuesday night, the Detroit Tigers showed up to the party and picked the first canapé off the tray, signing reliever Emilio Pagán to a one-year, $11 million contract.
There was a spark in the hot stove yesterday when Emilio Pagán signed with the Tigers, but it’s still pretty early in the offseason and not too much has happened. On Monday, I examined how the early 2027 projections viewed the bottom 15 teams in baseball. Today, I’ll take a look at the clubs projected to finish with a .500-or-better record in 2027.
The rankings below present each team as they are currently constructed, based on our Depth Charts playing time projections. This should give us a pretty good idea of which teams would be ready to compete if the 2027 season started today, and which ones have a lot of work ahead of them this offseason.
Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. For these offseason rankings, I’ve pulled the Depth Charts projections and calculated an implied Elo ranking for each team. Our projections are entirely powered by the 2027 Steamer projections right now; the ZiPS projections will be added later on in the offseason. The delta column in the full rankings below shows the change in ranking from the final regular season run of the power rankings. Read the rest of this entry »
Julio Rodríguez only made one five-star catch this year. Well, that’s not entirely true. Rodríguez is indeed credited with making only one five-star play this year, but as you can see, it wasn’t a catch.
With one out and runners on the corners, Detroit’s Dillon Dingler lifted a popup into shallow center field. Either because he knew he wouldn’t get there in time or he knew that the runner on first would have to wait to see whether the ball was caught, Rodríguez pulled up, fielded the ball on the hop, and fired to second for a force out.
I happen to love this kind of play. I love it when the outfielder gets to turn into an infielder for a moment, trying to pick a good hop, snapping the ball up and making a quick transfer, and trying their best to whip the ball to second with the short stroke of a second baseman in time to catch the runner. I’ve had my eye on these outfield force outs ever since Rodríguez made a similar play in 2024.
I noticed that particular play because I was surfing around the defense section of Rodríguez’s Statcast page, and I couldn’t help clicking on that one lonesome dot that indicated he’d made a play that wasn’t just difficult, but quite possibly impossible.
It turned out that catching it in the air was impossible, but in the right situation with the right baserunner, recording the out could still be done. I had intended, over the winter, to write a roundup of that season’s outfield force outs. “Fun video article,” I wrote in my list of article ideas, “outfielders making force plays.” But as is so often the case, other, morepressingmatters kept coming up. Now here we are two years later, and the roundup’s time has finally come, though you could argue that it’s coming too late. The 2026 season saw 17 outfield force outs. Not counting 2020, that’s tied for the lowest total in the pitch tracking era. In fact, the numbers seem to be trending downward very slightly.
Every now and then, something takes place in a major league baseball game that causes my inbox to light up. That’s what happened on October 4, when then-Padres first baseman Ty France hit a towering fly ball down the left field line during Game 1 of the NLDS at American Family Field. The ballpark has a retractable roof, which was closed at the time. As a result, the ball hit a roof cable in fair territory, slowing its progress to the point where it was caught on the warning track by Brewers left fielder Jackson Chourio. Since the ball struck the cable in fair territory, it was in play according to the American Family Field ground rules, so the caught ball was ruled an out. Nobody disputes those facts.
But here’s the question everyone seemed to be asking me: Had the ball not hit the cable, would it have cleared the left field fence in fair territory for a home run? Note that the fence is 342 feet from home plate and eight feet high. Note also that the ball was hit down the line. So the question of whether it would have been a home run reduces to two separate questions regarding the location of the ball once it reached 342 feet from home plate:
Was the height of the ball greater than eight feet?
Was the ball to the field side of the foul line?
Normally, given the exit velocity and launch angle, determining whether France’s ball would have been a home run would be easy. I would simply use my Trajectory Calculator with default values for the unknown parameters to calculate the full trajectory. Those default parameters are based on analysis of Statcast batted ball data from past major league seasons. However, this particular batted ball was somewhat unusual in that, while the exit velocity was a respectable 105.3 mph, the launch angle, 48.7 degrees, was considerably steeper than is typical for a major league home run. Had the ball been hit at close to the optimum launch angle of about 30 degrees, it would have carried over 400 feet, making the answer to our first question a resounding “yes.” But that is not what happened. Read the rest of this entry »
For the 23rd consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction, as well as MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the first team up is the Milwaukee Brewers.
Batters
There’s nothing in projectionating as humbling as projecting the Milwaukee Brewers, the team that has apparently spent the last six years perfecting the ability to outperform forecasts. Even with my attempts to be as aggressive as possible with constructing depth charts, and ZiPS coming in as the most optimistic projection system on the Brew Crew, it still managed to underestimate the Brewers by more than a dozen wins in 2026. I do take solace in the fact that it doesn’t seem like any of the other 29 teams in baseball, including the Rays, have figured out how to do this with such regularity, and the brainpower of a 50-person analytics staff easily outpowers mine.
On the Milwaukee offense, nobody stands outs as an MVP candidate, but by the same token, there are a lot of really good players, and only one or two actual holes in the starting lineup. In last season’s ZiPS rundown, I said the Brewers looked a lot like one of those peak 2010s Cardinals teams in their depth and balance, and nothing that happened in 2026 disabused me of that notion.
Most of the lineup returns in 2027, with the obvious exceptions of any possible trades, and only Jake Bauers and Gary Sánchez hitting free agency. Bauers may very well be back on a one-year qualifying offer — I’d counsel him to do so if I were his agent — and while Sánchez was certainly a nice-to-have, the Brewers declined their side of the mutual option and seem likely to either pick up another cheap veteran or just roll with Jeferson Quero. There’s some real value for working Quero in at the major league level (assuming his shoulder is OK) with William Contreras scheduled to reach free agency after 2027. It’s also quite possible that Bo Naylor ends up in this spot; he was pretty awful in 2026, but Naylor’s also the type of underperforming veteran-ish player that the Brewers seem to do very well with.
Brice Turang and Jackson Chourio are obvious All-Star candidates, and a good season from Garrett Mitchell or Cooper Pratt puts them into that conversation. ZiPS likes Luis Lara’s breakout potential, and thinks he’s better than he was in his debut. ZiPS doesn’t like Jesús Made as immediately as Steamer does, but still seems him having a 40-WAR type of career. On the lesser prospect stuff, ZiPS sees the Brewers as having very good farm depth, and while none of Luke Adams, Andrew Fischer, Jett Williams, or Josh Adamczewski get big projections, they all project to have situational value and should be good emergency options.
ZiPS sees first base as the biggest offseason need for the lineup. DH, too, but I doubt Christian Yelich is going anywhere. Andrew Vaughn had a .306/.390/.444 line in 2026, but ZiPS also thinks his BABIP was about 60 points above what his Statcast data suggested it would be, and he doesn’t have a history of overperforming what ZiPS thinks about his BABIP.
Pitchers
Having Jacob Misiorowski at the top of the rotation is a great way to start off your pitching staff, and he certainly goes into 2027 as a leading Cy Young candidate (and the likely 2026 winner). I still have this horror-movie image of him throwing a fastball 104 mph while his arm travels 95 mph and lands in front of the catcher in a grisly scene, but that hasn’t happened yet. I’m sorry, pitchers scare me more than any Halloween-themed movie.
ZiPS sees the rest of the rotation as good, but rather unexciting. Logan Henderson, Robert Gasser, and Kyle Harrison all project as league-average or better starters, with their relatively low WARs coming down to rather low innings totals. ZiPS is aware of Quinn Priester’s thoracic outlet issues, so it gives him a pretty big hit in the projections, but if he’s not comfortably back, Shane Drohan, Tyson Hardin, and Coleman Crow all have projections that are better than most teams’ sixth starters. This does feel like a rotation that would benefit from someone to eat some innings in the middle of the rotation, like Kevin Gausman. Maybe the Brewers can fix Zac Gallen.
The projections see some depth work to do in the bullpen. Like Steamer, ZiPS really likes the top three of Trevor Megill, Aaron Ashby, and Abner Uribe, and it is moderately a fan of DL Hall and Chad Patrick. The Brewers may be able to populate the rest of the bullpen with some of the starter candidates that don’t make the rotation, such as Drohan or Crow, but a value add or two in the bullpen in free agency would be welcomed.
There’s a lot of winter to go, as in all of it, but ZiPS has no problem seeing the Brewers as the NL Central favorites right now. It still prefers the Cubs’ lineup, but the Cubs have a lot of pitching stuff to figure out, and in quick preliminary runs with current rosters, ZiPS generally has the Brewers somewhere around 90 wins and as a moderate NL Central favorite. Which means they’ll win 109 games or something in 2027.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Charts playing time.
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2027 due to injury, and players who were released in 2026. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a post-industrial, Gregorian-chant, bubblegum-Reggaeton band that only performs at rural zoning board meetings, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.18.
Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.
As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on Bluesky. This last is, however, not an actual requirement.
Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Toronto Blue Jays. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the seventh year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the position column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.
A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.
All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »
The fences moved in, and Michael Wacha felt the pinch. The right-hander allowed exactly twice as many home runs in 2026 as he did in the prior year, and the obvious place to look is the ballpark. Kansas City pulled the Kauffman Stadium fences in by enough to turn it from one of the toughest places to leave the yard into a roughly average home run environment. Or at least, that’s where I started when I set out to analyze Wacha’s 30 homers allowed, the third-highest mark in baseball and a career worst for the veteran pitcher.
I kept an eye on Wacha’s home run issue for two reasons. First, I was curious about how the new fences would play, and as a fly ball pitcher without strikeout stuff, Wacha was a great barometer. Second, I’ve done a lot of work on which pitches are most likely to get hit for home runs in the past few seasons, and Wacha generally finished high on those lists. But despite showing the characteristics of a pitcher who should get hit hard, he basically didn’t. Over 2024 and 2025 combined, no pitcher in baseball had a larger divergence between his expected home runs allowed, as calculated by PitchingBot, and his actual home runs allowed. Wacha’s pitches racked up 50.6 expected HR allowed during that span, according to my formulation of PitchingBot data; he allowed only 32, a gap of 18 homers. No one else had a gap of 15 or higher.
Through the end of June, there wasn’t much to pay attention to. But on July 4, Wacha got tagged for three homers at home against the Phillies, and from then on out, it was as though a switch had been flipped. From that day through the end of the season, he gave up 13 long balls at home, and another seven on the road. Was it Wacha? The stadium? Luck? I made a note to check when the playoffs were over. Today, I’d like to give you the results of that investigation, as well as revisit my old definitions of meatballs and expected home runs. Wacha’s glut of home runs allowed wasn’t simply a fluke, and the stadium wasn’t to blame for all of those added homers. Read the rest of this entry »
Hello everybody. Little bit of housekeeping: I think the Blue Jays list is going to run tomorrow. It might be Thursday but either way, we're on deck for a list. Braves will be close behind, either Friday or early next week I suspect. Rangers and Red Sox pretty close to done as well.
Brendan Gawlowski
With that out there, let's get cooking
leoneforthird
Post prospect question but do you think that Colt Emersons issues this year were due mostly to his undisclosed injury or adjusting to MLB. Or is it just impossible to tell with out being closer to the situation.
Brendan Gawlowski
Both. Injury clearly hampered him. Think he was rushed, AAA performance didn't scream "promote me now!" Still like him as a high floor type.
Phillip Denny
Hi Brendan! Do you have any way-too-early 2027 MLB draft takes? Overall draft quality/depth, potential 1.1 picks, etc?
Brendan Gawlowski
Lot of college pitching depth, which I think is the most fun kind of draft to follow, certainly the easiest to wrap your arms around as a fan/analyst. High school pitching looked pretty good at Area Codes, some of the consensus top up-the-middle bats didn't look quite as intriguing as they normally do. I don't have a hot take on 1:1 yet.
drummer66
What have you seen from Alex McCoy and Ty Harvey of the Padres in the Arizona Fall League? What are the holes in their games?
Brendan Gawlowski
McCoy might just have 80 power. Flawed player but so much juice that he'll likely do something. Harvey, I need to put on the tape defensively, bat is a work in progress, slow lane.
wheelhouse
What position does Kilby wind up playing if he has to move off of shortstop?
Brendan Gawlowski
Depends why he has to move. If he's still really fast but is just moving out of deference to Lombard or what have you, CF?
longsuffering
Hey Brendan – about Jake Cook – Do you feel like he's made strength gains enough to maybe get to a Kevin Kiermaier style of player? Crazy good speed, top flight defence, and enough hit tool to be a little bit dangerous? What's your take?
Brendan Gawlowski
100 mph EV90, 105 max for a 23 year old is not great, especially with his contact issues (tons of popups in addition to all the swing and miss). Eric talked me into keeping him on the main section, I agree that he's one to stay patient with given the background, but I'm not overly enamored with him.
Michael
BA just said Mitch Jebb has the best hit tool in the Pirates system . Am I crazy if I disagree. I'd pick 8-10 folks before I'd come to to Jebb
Brendan Gawlowski
Reminder that I generally try not to comment on the rankings/judgments of other outlets… I will say that this is a tough exercise with PIT. Look at our list from last year, and look at all those positional guys with future 3 or future 4 hit tool grades. Not a system overflowing with slam dunks in that regard.
Brendan Gawlowski
Which is a strange fit for the park, incidentally.
Ryanhasch31
How far has Juan Sanchez fallen after a rough season?
Brendan Gawlowski
He's in the 40 section.
miratutti
Care to humor me and possibly let me down quickly before Braves list…How far has Diego Tornes' stock fallen since last spring?
Brendan Gawlowski
He tumbled, low 40 currently. May kick him down another rung as I do my last gut feel toggles.
fuzwoz
Please speculate based on your pro experience: why would the Guardians use a 40 man spot on Jose Tena?
Brendan Gawlowski
I/we liked him as a prospect a couple years ago, maybe see a late bloomer chance?
Tristan
Could Mackenzie Gore represent a reasonable projection for Liam Doyle at this point?
Brendan Gawlowski
It could go that way… I think high-octane reliever is more likely.
miratutti
Who is the latest Toronto riser not named Bloss?
Brendan Gawlowski
Some of their depth infielders stepped forward last year, Goodwin and Harry both surprised me. Perry obviously surged out of nowhere. If there's a regular hiding in the low levels it might be Caricote.
vottogoat
Re: the Blue Jays list, what are the 2027 expectations for Jake Bloss after coming back from injury and pitching in the AFL?
Brendan Gawlowski
We somehow have two Jake Bloss questions… Weird season for him. Came back throwing gas, got tattooed anyway, velo down a little in the AFL. Strange sequence. I think the mid-rotation projection we had last year is still in there but we need to see how the velo/command looks in a full season. Stock is down a little with that uncertainty.
CC AFC
Toolshed shortstops with questionable hit tools comparison: who do you think is more likely to hit enough to be an everyday player between Jacob Lombard and Justin LeBron?
Brendan Gawlowski
LeBron, just betting on the athlete closer to maturity.
fincampbell05
What do you make of the concerns over Anthony Eyanson’s pitch shapes? His fastball sits 93-94 with, apparently, dead-zone movement, and he doesn’t seem to have an effective horizontally-moving pitch. Is his command enough to make up for this?
Brendan Gawlowski
The velo depends on when you caught him. On the year it averaged 94, pretty big fluctuations in where he sat. 18 IVB, 1 horizontal, high release. He could really use the arm strength, let's just say.
Brendan Gawlowski
The cutter gives him a (very slightly) E-W pitch and it played well last year, fwiw.
Brendan Gawlowski
I'm fine still projecting a no. 3 but he's one where a lot of analysis will be required in his T100 blurb to fully contextualize what we're dealing with.
cardsfan11642
Why is Jonny Farmelo #54 on the 100 but Tai Peete not somebody you're considering in the Top 100 per your last chat? Peete better exit velos, faster, higher defensive upside in CF, and K rates are now pretty much the same
Brendan Gawlowski
Partly the hit tool risk, mostly though it's because I just don't like the Cardinals and if I can find a way to subtly ding their players I'm going to take it.
Brendan Gawlowski
For the record, in last week's chat, I wrote: "He's the kind of player I'd project as a regular as a scout…" And that has been the case for years.
Brendan Gawlowski
I like Tai Peete. He's a risk/reward player with a lot of upside. He will be ranked ahead of some risk/reward players with upside and behind others.
CC AFC
If all of the position groups formed gangs and had a giant brawl, who would win? Catchers, right?
Brendan Gawlowski
Pitchers have a huge numerical advantage. I'd take them.
philly
What is the most likely thing to hold Henry Godbout from being a regular? Defense? Swing mechanics?
Brendan Gawlowski
Both are factors.
Alex Remington
Is John Gil a starting major league shorstop? How likely is it that he becomes 1) a cromulent first-division starter 2) an All-Star at some point in his career?
Brendan Gawlowski
Probably not; 30% or so; unlikely but not impossible.
thorboy85@gmail.com
How likely is it that we see Jesus Made be the starting 3B/SS on opening day next year?
Brendan Gawlowski
Between the good-not-great season at AA, how young he is, and the big-league options available, I think it's more likely than not that he starts in the minors. But that's just speculation.
R.B. Urgess
Can you expand more on Doyle's reliever risk? It looked like he turned a corner in the second half … is the toolkit just not enough to start in the majors?
Brendan Gawlowski
Body doesn't look great, lot of walks overall. I should be clear, I think he can start, and could be quite good in that role. But I see more relief risk with him than some of the arms in his orbit on the top 50.
Kevin Kelsey
Is it time to call Dasan hill a reliever or hope he can work out the walks?
Brendan Gawlowski
I would stay patient. May well be a reliever in the end but let's see this play out for a while first.
Brady Petree
Let's say Alfredo Sena signed tomorrow with ATL: Where would he slot in in terms of the top-100 list and the Braves system overall?
Brendan Gawlowski
He'd be a 45+, the rare guy I'd be going out of my way to see right from the jump in the DSL, and a potential T100 candidate on the same kind of timeline as Angeibel Gomez. I can't get behind 50'ing a teenager who hasn't played pro ball.
toshi
Hi, compared to teams like Rays and Brewers, what are the areas in which Mariners are weak, in terms of player acquisition and development? Thanks.
Brendan Gawlowski
Depth. They turn their big-bonus guys into dudes at a high rate and they've had a lot of success developing starting pitching. But the system is thin.
vottogoat
Do you think there’s a chance Nolan Perry could make it to the majors this year? What’s his long-term outlook?
Brendan Gawlowski
He'll have a 2027 ETA. In my mind that's more July/August than next spring, but who knows. Projects as a no. 4/5 type, could exceed if the fastball or his command are better than I'm projecting.
eandy
Any big reactions from the ROY voting?
Brendan Gawlowski
Patrick Dubuque has written persuasively about the ROY should go to the best guy, and that WAR shouldn't really be a factor in the same way it is with the Cy/MVP. I agree with that, and if, in that sense, you think Sal Stewart is THE GUY in this class, I think it's a defensible selection. Personally, I don't feel that way: I think he's a good player, he ranked highly for us and was graded appropriately in view, but I have the Mets guys and Weatherholt ahead of him. Maybe one or two others, it was a very strong class.
hambonehambone
If you were going to trade one of Franklin Arias or Jesus Made, which would you be willing to part with and what is the distinction that led to that decision?
Brendan Gawlowski
Wouldn't be in any rush to deal either of them. If someone offered the moon, sure, but that applies to both.
reyrh
When do you think players should be Rule V eligible, since it's coming up as a potential change?
Brendan Gawlowski
I have conflicting thoughts here. In general, I'm in favor of more player movement and anything that gets guys to FA earlier. On the other, I think the earlier you let guys get to R5, the more you're pushing pitchers into the pen. Practically speaking, teams are pretty reluctant to take players who aren't ready to help in some kind of way, so I don't think that eligibility changes would be all that impactful.
apeloton
Another post prospect question – what do you think bubba chandler’s outlook is after his rookie year? What changes does he need to make to improve it?
Brendan Gawlowski
Mid-rotation, no. 2 upside in play but fading a little bit. Build on the control gains he made in the second half. More experience going second- and third-time through will be helpful.
Phillip Denny
What are the chances Davalan actually sticks on the dirt?
Brendan Gawlowski
Pretty good, chance he's their next super utility guy.
wheelhouse
Doubling up on Kilby questions: rough ETA if he stays healthy unlike this year? 2028 or later?
Brendan Gawlowski
2028 is very reasonable.
Wexlerrules
Do you think Reimer still has a shot to start at 3b for a good team?
Brendan Gawlowski
A shot, yes. I'd personally take the under.
Tristan
What would prevent Cam Smith from becoming the next Jordan Walker?
Brendan Gawlowski
I'm not sure if you mean this as a good thing or a bad thing…
vottogoat
Do you think David Davalillo can get his control to the point he can start, or destined to the bullpen?
Brendan Gawlowski
Still projects as a starter. Control was much better in second AAA spin. Seems like he's one of those guys who needed a beat to adjust.
hambonehambone
Crystal Ball gets fired up and we see Kendry Chourio in 5 years. What current or former MLB starter does he most resemble?
Brendan Gawlowski
If it all breaks right, he's on the Sonny Gray path
markjd
I spent much of last year following Devin Taylor wondering if he was a guy that could hit his way to a higher projection, and then the last couple of weeks started to worry about a strikeout rate. Should I just go back to worrying about if he has a position?
Brendan Gawlowski
Too much worrying. Broad contours of this profile are pretty well set. Three true outcome hitter, fits at DH. We'll see if he gets to the power often enough to play everyday.
Phillip Denny
Feels like once the CBA is hashed out and the Vegas/TB stadiums are sorted, the league will be hurtling toward expansion. I've seen it floated that the expansion teams should be given a 2-3 year run up to build their farms before fielding a major league team. Practically speaking, how would that happen? Minor league expansion draft of some kind?
Brendan Gawlowski
This would/will all be very fun. I'd support some kind of window but the details — how many players/teams do they get? — are tricky. I'd think a minor league draft would be part of it.
Tristan
Ha! Funny re: Smith. I meant more in the spirit of — can Cam convert his underlying batted ball data and obvious athleticism into a potential offensive breakout? If not, what would appear to be in his way?
Brendan Gawlowski
It's in there, his approach is an impediment. And Walker having a stone-cold elite tool gave him a leg up on Smith, who has a lot of power, but not like JW.
Kevin Kelsey
Any chance Wilder Dalis starts the year in aa next season?
Brendan Gawlowski
Any chance? Sure. Rockies don't tend to push all that quickly though, I'd be surprised. I'd bet he gets to Hartford at some point, though.
Kevin Kelsey
What can we expect from cam cannarella next year? Enough juice for 10 15 with 15 swipes?
Brendan Gawlowski
I'm not sure he's going to hit for that much power. Lower launch guy — reasonably so, given his speed and approach — with maaaybe 40 raw? Tough HR park, too.
drplantwrench
neslon rada and raudi rodriguez have to be put on the 40 man for the angels, right? whats the over/under in games played for 2027?
Brendan Gawlowski
If it was a normal year, yes, locks to be added. If there's no R5 draft though…
barondionis
Do you expect Murf Gray to be on a similar trajectory as Esmerlyn Valdez? Such as starting the year in Triple-A after spending just a part of last season in Double-A. Valdez only 51 games to conclude 2025, Gray 45 games to conclude 2026. I feel like there could be some urgency with Pittsburgh's third base opening, but wanted to hear your thoughts on this front
Brendan Gawlowski
Sounds reasonable to me.
maximus74
assuming 500+ PA, what do you see JDP's season looks like next year?
Brendan Gawlowski
.274/.377/.449. Better but flawed defense, fair bit of DH'ing.
Patrick Burke
Been getting into LIDOM, who are the main prosects to watch in winter ball this year?
Brendan Gawlowski
Made's there… Roldy Brito, Leo Bernal, John Gil, Jefferson Rojas… Emil Morales is on Gigantes but doesn't seem to be playing much… Justin Gonzales same thing. For obvious reasons, it's a lot lighter on the pitching side.
GarageCat
Circling back around from a "because you asked" last month, who do you think has the highest upside between Cards middle infielders Yairo Padilla, Miguel Hernández, and Sebastian Dos Santos?
Brendan Gawlowski
Miguel scares me a little but he could also be pretty freaky. That bat could get very, very fast.
Michael
I think the minor league ball used last year is too new for scouts to correct it like they have the PCL over the years. will we be surprised when a pitcher was overlooked in 2026.
Brendan Gawlowski
I'd push back a little, we were all over the different ball in the first week of the season. How to handle it is more art than science, and one assumption I've made is that the command/control guys who really got whacked were exposed as not having enough stuff to thrive against good competition… but it's possible that that reasoning is flawed.
Definitely Not an AI Bot
If you were Chaim Bloom, how would you deploy the Cardinals' oddly deep catching pool? Is Bernal the C and RR heading to a corner?
Brendan Gawlowski
Treat it as a great problem to have, find the right balance between keeping guys fresh and running with the hot hand until you've got clarity.
Definitely Not an AI Bot
Would you change anything about the R5 draft? Seems like it hits about the right line overall but some teams really get pinched certain years.
Brendan Gawlowski
It's weird. The purposes of the R5 are to give blocked players a second path to the big leagues and to prevent orgs from hoarding talent. It doesn't do either of those things very well, imo. Instead of a draft, I think I'd rather have a shorter path to minor league free agency.
Gerry McDonald
How many Blue Jays catchers are you rating? Like the Cards they have a lot of guys who could be something.
Brendan Gawlowski
Four on the main section, counting Sprock. A bunch on the HM section, including Parker who was a late cut (and who might also not be a catcher).
DunkinDonut
Hi Brendan, are you and Eric keeping the same list split this year? Any chance you'll get to the Red Sox sooner?
Brendan Gawlowski
Won't be exactly the same, and we have to account for Mr. Fegan's lists, too. Sox will go fairly early.
jwise224
Billy Carlson had an injury-shortened season in A-ball. Any change to his stock overall? Or is this a "run it back and reevaluate after more performance" situations?
Brendan Gawlowski
I'm a little concerned about the lack of game power…
rgoule
Besides De Paula, who do you see as next Dodger prospect to force his way into conversation?
Brendan Gawlowski
Sirota, but it might be a trade conversation. His tracking skills scare me a little bit and there's no room to DH.
Definitely Not an AI Bot
Honest feedback: I love the deep cut of the lists but I'd rather have my team's top 25 in April than go 60-deep in June.
Brendan Gawlowski
I suspect you're not alone. Trying to do both this year.
Brendan Gawlowski
Okay folks, thanks as always for the questions. I've gotta run and shore up the Jays and hopefully track down a couple sources on other lists. We'll do it again next week.
One story ends, another begins. The Milwaukee Brewers have hoisted the 2026 World Series trophy and earned an offseason of rest, but for the ZiPS projection system, there is no winter respite. The 2027 season is (hopefully) just around the corner, and as has been the case every year going back to 2005, it’s time to start rolling out projections.
For those new to my projections, ZiPS is a computer projection system I initially developed in 2002–04. It was officially released to the public in 2005, after it had reached a level of non-craptitude I was content with. The origins of ZiPS are similar to Tom Tango’s Marcel the Monkey, coming out of discussions I had in the late 1990s with Chris Dial, one of my best friends (our first interaction involved Chris calling me an expletive!) and a fellow stat nerd. ZiPS quickly evolved from its original version as a reasonably simple projection system, and now it both does a lot more and uses a lot more data than I ever envisioned it would 20 years ago. At its core, however, it’s still engaged in two primary tasks: estimating what the baseline expectation for a player is at the moment I hit the button, and then estimating what that player might do in the future using large cohorts of relatively similar players.
So why is ZiPS named ZiPS? At the time, Voros McCracken’s theories on how pitching, defense, and balls in play interact were fairly new, and since I wanted to integrate some of his findings, I decided (with his blessing) that the name of my system should rhyme with DIPS (defense-independent pitching statistics). I didn’t like SIPS, so I went with the next letter in my last name. I originally named my work ZiPs as a nod to CHiPs, one of my favorite shows to watch as a kid, but I mis-typed ZiPs as ZiPS when I released the projections publicly, and since my now-colleague Jay Jaffe had already reported on ZiPS for his Futility Infielder blog, I chose to just go with it. I never expected that all of this would be useful to anyone but me; if I had, I would have named it in less bizarre fashion. Read the rest of this entry »
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