FanGraphs Baseball

Members-Only Game Thread: World Series – Oct 24, 2026

Welcome to our Open Game Thread for the World Series game today. Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual staff Q&A chats, your messages will be posted immediately.

Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this is a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts. We might even have some FanGraphs Staff drop in and join the fun. Please be courteous to your fellow Members, or you may find your chat privileges revoked.

Hi everyone! We had an interesting ending last night. Hopefully tonight will be just as fun! We got our standard polls and a redux of our Rasmussen poll with a little dash hindsight.

Hello Sean!

I have just Seen Everything

I still need to watch The Rehearsal.

I've got a Brewers fan friend coming over for the game and he's bringing spotted cow. So I might be pulling for the Brewers tonight at least

I'm jealous. I wish I had friends this good.

I know there's alot of baseball left, but if last night was any indication, this is gonna be a great World Series. Go Orioles! Wait….never mind. Go Baseball!

The real winner this WS is Brat Rangoon

I have heard so much about spotted cow I had to do some research. Looks like it is tough to find here in CT.

It's light but quite tasty. Made by a small brewery in SW WI.

It used to be impossible or at least really hard to find outside of Wisconsin. I think it's still that way, but I haven't been there since 2023. When I did have to buy a Spotted Cow from the hotel, because State St. Brats closed early over Thanksgiving weekend.

Yeah my friend has family in Wisconsin and goes back periodically so presumably that's where he got it

Whoops!

What is a quintessential TB area thing?

This is going to be hard. The closest I've been recently is Orlando.

I saw everything the other night, and I cannot unsee anything

Saw it last week. My question is why we didn't get to see Nathan in the shower.

Pratt fall

More like Pooper Cratt, am I right?

You misspelled “Crapp”. 😉

Pratt's defense was said to be superb in the minors, but he has been a downgrade defensively compared to Ortiz.

Joe Davis calling the game from the future there saying "Tampa Bay unable to take advantage" with only 1 out

Must've been an alternate future, then!

Do I have to be watching the game to contribute to the thread?

I'm running back and forth while cooking dinner

Chandler Simpson in the 3-hole pays off early.

Chandler Simpson showing you can have success with oppo soft swings. Well, at least *he* can.

I wonder if a player with exactly 0 HR's during the regular season has ever batted 3rd in a WS.

I really hope Simpson keeps getting better because he's so much fun to watch

Simpson's stature reminds me of 80s/early 90s era baseball players.

He's like a taller version of Lance Johnson, former ChiSox CF.

Beautiful steal.

I do like replays from the Umpcam. That shot down the LF line looked pretty awesome from it.

Love the crowd reaction shots at the end of replays.

Oh boy

Hicks hits it to the sticks

Thank you John Sterling.

Oh man … that ball was destroyed

What is going on?

And here I was ready for a pitchers duel

This one looks to be over early.

Wow

OK, who had Henderson going one inning? ‘Cause you might win that poll question.

Hi Jack!

Hey Sean!

Also, is it fair to take this into account in judging the Rasmussen decision? Could have won both, maybe.

Exactly!

They got some solid innings last night from Martinez and Matz. But one of those runs made a difference.

Do they have a drone over the field??

love that this happened after I saw tons of comments complaining about Hicks after yesterday

How’s this for a facile hot take: Henderson pitching like a rookie, Pratt fielding like a rookie.

Hey everybody!

He better be right, and he is.

New Q. How many Kyle Harrison innings are we getting tonight?

Too many!!

3?

I do notice the mean for Henderson’s IP on the poll question has ticked down a touch.

Was just wondering who’s gonna get mop up innings

Woodruff?

I am more convinced than ever that this thing is going to 7 games.

I’m guessing they go drohan? they at least trusted him against the dodgers and they probably rightly believe they can still come back

Excellent, my secret plan is working

Cooper's "prattfall" set a bad tone for that inning. Ortiz makes that play with ease. They lose some offense with Ortiz, but he's a nice boost to run prevention.

Liam Hicks and the Hot Licks

Chourio not ambushing that one!

As a Tiger fan I get all 🤬thinking about how Liam Hicks was in our system and was allowed to walk just last year, and then I remember, oh yeah, Dillon Dingler

There's still a lot of baseball. A lot can happen.

Sure, it's an early lead, but it's an even-numbered lead.

That Hicks homer killed the rally!

Also, it’s not a prime number

Love descriptive statistics

Wow here we go

Chourio is quite good.

As Ernie Harwell would say, “The Brewers are kicking up their heels!”

When was the last WS game where both teams scored double digits?

I can't think of any game since 2017 game 5

Date Game Score
Oct 20, 1993 Game 4 Blue Jays 15, Phillies 14 (at Philadelphia)
Oct 21, 1997 Game 3 Marlins 14, Indians 11 (at Cleveland)
Oct 20, 2002 Game 2 Angels 11, Giants 10 (at Anaheim)
Oct 29, 2017 Game 5 Astros 13, Dodgers 12 (at Houston, 10 innings)

I thought we agreed to never speak of that again.

My wife was like what’s up with the Brewers and I was all, that’s the team that’s led the AL all year

Thought the Brewers and Rays were known for defense. . .

They were, but Pratt isn't living up to his MiLB hype in that regard.

Hicks is gonna want to use an ABS challenge here

He really wanted to challenge there.

Old school baseball!

Wow the hit and run

Man, Contreras is dialed in situationally.

That looked like am inning ending double play off the bat.

Brewers doing Brewers things.

Anyone else not able to find this chat in the app?

It's in the newest iOS version released yesterday via a banner on the home screen. Android is still being worked on.

That atmosphere looks amazing.

These pitchers aren’t fooling anyone

They are fooling me — I thought they were both pretty good.

Turang wasn’t fooled on that 109 mph second out.

How much I miss the hit and run. It was such a part of the game when hitters could be relied upon to make contact.

I bet it comes back to the game again, and probably sooner than we think. Game is always evolving.

When they finally go to 100% robot ump calls on pitches, will catchers still frame out of habit?

I hope so: "Nice try, meatsack. Beep-boop!"

These offenses are really, really fun

Different sort of game than yesterday.

Pratt can now atone for his error…

Is Rasmussen knuckling his changeup? Looks like that’s what his middle finger was doing on that run-scoring single just now.

No, pretty sure he's taking it off, which is what you do for a kick change.

Looked like it was tucked under the ball was why I asked

Pratt going for Most Suckee Player

Oof, the hubris of Contreras

The very word a had in mind.

For anyone unable to watch on TV: Brewers have JoJo Romero warming

The start to this game makes me wish I was in a bar in Milwaukee watching all the miserable Brewers fans.

Brewers fans maybe a lot of things but miserable in a bar they are not.

Henderson really doesn’t like an 0-2 count

A sacrifice bunt with no outs is taking this small ball a little bit too far.

in the second no less

Maybe that's what my wife meant when she called me a sadness vampire.

Game feels like a pre pitch clock slog I love it

I'm more ok with this in the postseason. 4-hour games during the 162-game marathon was too much.

Both of these teams take absolutely gnarly ABs

Anyone else think maybe baseball should actively try to reduce foul balls?

How would you do that?

What are ya thinking?

I suppose this is a good outcome, but how in the world would you achieve that besides increasing infield popups?

make fair territory bigger

Maybe, on the 2nd out, 2 fouls for free and the next one is a strikeout?

Change the in-play angle from 90 degrees to 360 degrees, like cricket 🙂

The only way I can think of to reduce foul balls would be to replace the wizards pitching today with normal mortals.

Then we wouldn't get to see Tristan Peters and Jake Bauers wow us with their long, and terrific, AB's.

Loves me some Tristan Peters

Maybe the foul lines don't have to precicely coincide with the basebaths? Have them angle out a bit?

We're a numbers site, so I should have something to back this up, but I feel like the vast majority of foul balls are tips/to the backstop or dramatically in foul territory.

You'd definitely would be moving things at the margins if that's what you are going for.

The margins *are* where interesting stuff happens…

Pitchers need to figure out how to pitch to squarer contact, but not toooo square. Sounds hard

TIL William Contreras is only 0.1 fWAR behind his brother in terms of cumulative performance this decade.

My fav Kalshi commercial and I hate Kalshi

Pat Murphy is a leader

Re: making pitchers mortal, maybe moving the mound back a few inches is a way to go?

Yah or down

I've thought so for a while. Less guess hitting should lead to more contact w/o necessarily spiking HR

I think they tried that in the Atlantic league and it had the opposite effect. Walks went up, but so did strikeouts.

Nuts! It's almost like better-motivated peple than I have worked on this issue.

That was a garbage experiment that gets cited as definitive way too much. Of course guys struggled after playing their whole careers at 60'6" — move it back a foot now and reap the benefits in years 10-50.

Yeah it was pretty short lived. The extra distance does give breaking pitches more time to move, though. It makes sense that it didn't just make hitting easier.

Yeah it's the kind of change that can't be evaluated in a single season or even a few seasons, and MLB seems so concerned about unintended consequences that they won't implement something they can't just throw minor league (or indy ball) games at

Makes sense. So many of these changes depend on how long it takes for players to adapt.

I also liked a commenter's recent idea to make the rubber narrower. Such an easy fix that doesn't change the fabric of the game yet mitigates the extreme arm angles

I like this a lot!

No one would even notice!

The best kind of change! Like the pitch clock.

Good idea, but now I wonder what we can do with the plate. We made the bases bigger, we're making the rubber smaller, maybe we start having opposite day games where the plate is pointed the wrong direction

Hi Sean! ABS spon con is weird

My last five messages are "awaiting review," which is a bit on the nose for messages about ABS

I was just looking up how T-mobile actually powers ABS.

Surely it's some garbage about how their network is used to transmit the results, right?

Google AI was really getting some stuff wrong.

I might be missing something, but I'm not sure why ABS needs a private 5G network to work.

It needs a 5G network to get sponsored!

They're allowing them to use the emergency network for ABS actually, 911 calls won't go through in Milwaukee if Contreras taps his helmet

T-Mobile owns basically all the 2.5 GHz 5G spectrum for North America and they set up a private network inside stadiums reserving a slice of the band. Wi-Fi would be a bad idea because it's public so theoretically it could get congested.

Oh boy aranda

"The ABS challenge workflow relies on players (batters, catchers, or pitchers) tapping their helmet or cap directly on the field to trigger a review. A physical wire tether to a player or an umpire would be dangerous, cumbersome, and impractical during active play."

Alright, thanks AI.

This is trying to answer the 5G question.

From my cursory research…it's better solution than WiFi or other wireless solutions. And it looks like it simplifies the infrastructure build out for the operation of it.

Oh no Aranda 🙁

Daaaaaang!

Wow

Just finished my shift, I miss anything?

That was not a strike.

Agree

Should have been a walk

#replaceUMPs

Was only listening to that Rhapsido commercial and could've sworn they were advertising Rapsodo

Do you think about Vaughn at all here?

Im always thinking about Vaughn

The Aranda play finally convinced me, the Brewers are inevitable

maxRISP

SP poll is closed! Rasmussen didn't go 4 IP, but we had him at 5.2 IP mean and 6 IP median.

Henderson when 3 IP and we had him around 4.1 IP mean and 4 IP median.

I would imagine SPs go fewer innings in the post?

Trying and failing to think of someone whose stock has fallen further the last couple years than David Stearns

Clase

Alek Manoah

Why?

I knew I'd be wrong when I posted, I just didn't know HOW wrong (re: Clase)

"Mets rich and bad Brewers poor and good" was the core of my thinking

Wander Franco?

Wow yeah I whiffed hard on this one lol

Okay Pratt making up for his mistakes

MLB can’t be surprised that players bet, when they’re forcing betting apps down our throats

It’d be like if every other commercial was for steroids

OK but tbh I'm very intrigued by the idea of steroid commercials

Every other commercial *is* for pharmaceuticals. Odds are many of them are steroids.

Surprisingly, that pharmaceutical that clears your skin but may increase your risk of infection that was just advertised is not a corticosteroid, even though it sounds like one.

Thoughts about using Ashby while losing, even by just a run, given his workload? Is he going to pitch multiple innings in literally every game?

Oh, I guess Ashby isn't actually warming.

Cannot hit batters. Ever. In the post. Unless it’s intentional.

Palacios specs are no longer neon green??

I was looking closely after someone mentioned it last night, I thought they looked different!

I just found Waldo

That seemed very close

Didn't matter in the end.

Fireable send

Speaking of gambling…

Oof

Reminds me of the days of Wavin Wendell

Has a 3rd base coach ever been fired in-game?

Fire that 3B coach, Tampa.

Dumbest send in WS history

oh that was a dumb send

What in the Hicks?

Fortune favors the bold, they say, but yeesh.

Fortune also favors the scouting report

What was the dumb send the other day?

Hamilton trying to extend a double to triple?

Mesa trying to steal third

I guess if you sac bunt earlier in the inning you’re pot committed to the send with 2 outs *shrug*

Bunting only works for teams that don’t strike out a lot and make a good deal of contact. TB is one of those teams. So is MKE.

lol I was thinking the same thing about the umps guns

Friend of mine says Eduardo Perez calling the game on the radio said it was a good send. Eduardo Perez is objectively a dumb s**t.

Maybe Perez is calling the game blindfolded, it's not like you could tell by his analysis

Woah!!!!

No way

that's baseball

Maybe they are a team of destiny

Woot!!!!!

Brand new ballgame!

Lexington!

Brewers have a long lineup

Mitchell against the dodgers, frelick here, hamilton (not) triple yesterday

This is good baseball.

my partner's review of the Frelick home run: "Ohhh, he's so cute!"

I'll show her the face he made during that nutty '25 NLCS double play

That's the insight we need on these chats.

Sal Frelick will hold the door for you at Friendly’s and share his clown cone. America’s or at least the metro Boston area’s sweetheart

my partner: he looks kind of like Jerry Seinfeld. Unclear if this agrees or contradicts your partner's assessment

Fangraphs article idea, all time playoff series ranked by average number of two strike fouls per game

there's a cutie keeping score behind the plate too

love to see it

alan thinks the hp umpire is cute !?!

Front Row Amy. Quite famous in that area.

alan and umpy sittin in a tree

umpires don't keep score

Aren’t umpires actually the official arbiters of the score?

Yeah but they aren't responsible for keeping a record of it, they let an entirely different guy screw that up

I just don't think I see it for the Rays right now.

we've got dave flemming calling the game in Canada, nyeah nyeah

What, you’re not listening to Alain Usereau?! Sacre bleu!

Ump needs to focus less on his guns, more on his eyes

OK, let's make it a series. my partner's review of Chourio: "how does a 22 year old get that big?? I thought maybe he was 37"

Brian's partner should submit a community post about reactions to these guys

lockout post!

Chourio needs to focus less on guns more on strike zone

I’ll just backseat drive all the players

If I remember anything from age 9, it's that you're gonna walk guys if you look at third base while throwing the pitch

For exactly one pitch in my last year of little league I thought "varying my looks" meant throwing a no-look fastball because a guy was on third

What the ****

wat.

Huh.

That went from, oh crap, to WOW, to damn.

lol FOX thought that ball was so caught in left they went right to “end of 5th” on the score box

I caught that too

I love catching broadcast goofs!

Thank god there’s a pitching change so FOX has time to reboot the thing

did they both get lost in the lights?

So Yelich's strategy this WS is to have outfielders drop his fly balls?

I feel like im missing something here. Ball went in the glove, glove smacked the ground, ball popped out. Why was there not so much as a review?

I don't think you are wrong, because they get a bunch of challenges in the postseason. But that was not a catch in MLB or the NFL.

I believe that would have been Tampas last challenge. They lost one on that terrible send where they thought Contreras was blocking the plate

If I remember anything from age 9 it’s that I thought Donruss and Fleer were cool

Punp your brakes kid, those cards were a national treasure.

I LOVED Upper Deck.

now FOX saying that Taylor Walls is the batter against DL Hall

"Father McGrath! I thought you were dead!" "I was!"

they took the scorebug down

It's back and still wrong

Third times a charm?

They broke it!

Someone’s getting fired

joe buck better watch his back

Is it me?

Hopefully it's Tampa's 3rd base coach

RISPmaxed

Taylor Walks strikes again (balls again?)

Yandy is a fun name

i can't even make a joke that it's short for yandrew because it's pronounced with the long a

bizarre parallel brain moment

Abner is such an underrated name

Wow I didn’t know that!

first Abner in the majors since 1891

oh man, i've been feeling so weirdly low today and not even the baseball is helping

Kinda same, just one of those blue days

I hope your tomorrow is better

That double might raise your spirits!

every day is a roll of the dice, sometimes you come up empty, but most of the time it's chill

glad to see ya here!

it is always good to be in community, in meatspace and computerspace

Ohhh that was close

Chandler Simpson is such a funny 3 hitter

I finally get here. hi all

Chandler Simpson is a genius 3 hitter. the top 2 slots go to big power nowadays. Simpson makes sure you do not get a double play.

genius and comedy are not mutually exclusive

Two dramatic hits!

Doooohhhhh

It's kinda felt like Milwaukee has been in the lead ever since the Rays were up 4-2

Every third at-bat of this game has had something dramatic

Simpson does not walk enough to bat first. You dont care as much about the three hitter walking.

Peak Brewers-Rays-ball would be a suicide squeeze here

is Liam Hicks as good a fielder as contreras?

millville are you maximizing orange flair or still trying to spell something?

nimble dethoosfg?

I'm hoping for a reveal that he is Dutch

nimble looked fun, then i gave up lmao

feel like i have to shake things up though

i have happened upon something quite rude, oops

apparently changes are applied retroactively. I'm pleased to have caught the one this was posted with

Still kinda shook from last night when Sean mentioned that viewership was 44.8 million in 1978 vs. 8 million this year. I knew it was bad but not THAT bad

It seems like the statistical methods are sound for that 44.8 M number. But I'm still curious how accurate those ratings were back then.

It is harder to watch a game nowadays cause you have to pay someone to watch. in 1978 it was free on one of the three channels.

As accurate as any statistically sound large-sized sample would be.

Right but I doubt the methodology has been consistent for the last 40 years. TVs were probably not as evenly distributed demographically in 1978 as they are now, even if we have no reason to question how the sample was selected. There are a ton of ways the numbers could be skewed in the analysis.

My flare is the minimum. If its not the minimum change the rule.

Oh good lord why did you swing at that

In 1978 no one was playing Mario or Call of Duty or binge watching anything

I was playing pong for hours!

bla beep kA blunk….. bla beep ka blunk

Pratt redeems himself!

Sweet redemption for Cooper Pratt

Team of destiny, logic be damned

I'm rooting for the series to go 7. Go Tampa!

huh, I guess my digital antenna set up is behind by almost a full minute??

You can delay the chat using the settings cog in the top right

Really? I thought terrestrial broadcast would be the fastest!

Brewers stringing together ABs

Thanks for answering my question, Liam!

I am LOVING all the SBs

lol omg almost

And just like that Cooper Pratt with the RTBLAN

partner's review of the Frelick flyout: "he's just a little guy!"

I thought that was going

Brewers radio has tricked me into thinking there was a home run twice this inning. In Boston we used to call this a "Trupiano," or, as a verb, "to Trup" (pronounced "troop").

I thought that was long gone

Did you have home pong or spend a ton of nickels in arcades?

I was the cool kid!

home

Someone please remind me how I add the team flair?

Click the little gear, top right of the chat.

the flairs dont show in the chat replay, right

I export a transcript for the blog post. But these persist on the chat url. We're still feeling out how to transition editorially.

i fear i happened upon a crude flair combo that i would not like to be perma attached to , um.

Thank you!

Diarrhea, nausea, and vomiting? Yeah, I am feeling all of those right now…

Symptoms suggest prolonged exposure to John Smoltz

Hmm. A second inning from Abner? He didn't do this too much during the regular season.

Caminero has a lifetime BELPH of .105 against RHP who pitch from the stretch on Saturdays.

is belph correlated with bleph at all, or are they separate metrics

BELPH is BLEPH standardized for park, weather, beer type, and amount of under eye

I heard someone is working on OwBLEPH+

This series is gonna be a great exercise in how much seeing a reliever multiple times in a series matters

if I learned anything from this strategy being deployed in 2019, it's that eventually we'll get Surprise Fernando Rodney

Yeah to be clear I have no idea but maybe it’s a versions of third time through the order?

After seeing these short sleeve hoodies, I'm wondering if we've reached peak hoodie.

fwiw i almost always roll the sleeves of my hoodies up, i don't fully understand why

Or if the hoody has hit rock bottom

Ryan Vilade went to the barber and asked for the Bo Bichette

Ryan Vilade taking an at bat in the World Series would've been a hilariously ridiculous thought like 3 years ago

that last play had an xBLEPH+ of 42!

But it had an xBLEPHCON+ of 156! Talk about unlucky!

my partner's review of Front Row Amy: "I mean, if you pay for it, you gotta show it off"

Good story about FRA in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. She seems like a nice person: Married to her high school sweetheart and they have a few kids together and live in Oshkosh. Not what I expected.

These close games are amazing and great entertainment, but I hope there's one where the score gets wide enough that Woodruff gets to pitch. Just check and he somehow hasn't pitched in the playoffs since 2021?

how about a 15th inning game?

I've long thought Yelich looked like an 80s teen movie villain. Curious about Brian's partner's take.

if its a ski movie, then I agree

There we go. Just hit it.

I have a man crush on Contreras and I’m not afraid to admit it.

What’s the record for 1 and 2 run wins over the course of a postseason?

The record is 8 postseason wins by one or two runs.

Team 1-run wins 2-run wins Total postseason wins
1996 Yankees 5 3 11
2001 Yankees 5 3 10
2020 Rays 3 5 11
2025 Dodgers 5 3 13

Eight more teams are one behind at 7: the 1992 Blue Jays, 1997 Indians, 2000 Yankees, 2003 Marlins, 2005 White Sox, 2010 Giants, 2014 Royals and 2022 Astros.

Notably, the Yankees were outscored in the 1996 World Series despite winning in six games.

Chandler Simpson throws like a guy in a 45+ men’s amateur league.

Almost slid past the base. That was closer that the real time looked.

Almost looked like he threw his shoulder out trying to stay on the bag

I and the fans of at least 27 other teams are so jealous of the fire in the Brewers team.

We need to discover more Contreras brothers, they're like magic for a team's vibes

NATS had that fire before the trade deadline. Then they didn't.

Who was he throwing to? The 2B ump?

Hicks getting some butterfingers for Halloween

partner's take on Contreras: "he looks like he feels the weight of the whole world on his shoulders."

I think his foot got in there

He looked safe live

I think that was a terrible tag by Fortes

Matz feels like an odd choice here right? lol not meant to be a reply

He scored! It’s gonna be 6-4

EDIT: ehhh, win some, lose some

Wow, assumed he was out by a mile when that throw came in but looking at the replay that looks almost too close to call

oh I don't think you can overturn that

It's the toe they have see? I haven't seen enough to overturn.

I don't know if there's enough there, but in real time, I thought he was safe

That's the right call.

So interesting how Fortes appeared to move his foot to avoid blocking the plate, which surely led to the awkward tag.

go Tampa!!!

you're choosing Elijah Dukes over Junior Spivey, huh?

point taken. I am retired, so i want it to go 7

Too close to overturn I guess but that's rough by Fortas to even make that play close

I thought the Brewers had a better shot overturning the call on whether the runner tagged the plate versus the obstruction challenge.

Raise your hand if you want the Rays to score one so we go into the bottom of the inning tied. 🖐️

I just want more baseball.

I'm rooting for the Brewers in this match but I'd love to see more baseball

Exactly!

You mean the 12th right?

@raregokus Sure, why not!

There will be more on Monday and Tuesday, so let's just wrap it here, OK?

Oh, yeah!

RISPmaxxing

Using the last challenge on the first pitch of the 9th inning in a one-run game feels suboptimal

both of his challenges feel like they had weird timing

The lost ones, anyway

When you’re feeling bulletproof like that guy is right now, you become more impervious to risk.

Huh, this is interesting.

Terrible pitch

Bunting here is asinine

This series is awesome

How did he not take third there?

victor victor mesa mesa jr is my favorit non Nationals or X Ntionals player!

maybe not

If I had played baseball in CUBA my hero would have been Victor Mesa.

I have no clue what a check swing is

Nobody does!

Just like knowing what a balk is.

Dr. Baseball101 asks: what the hell was Mesa doing pimping at the plate after that strike three swing? He should have busted it to first to draw a potentially wild throw.

Contreras has been a mad man with his blocks

Does Ashby have a shot at WS MVP?

Yes, but he keeps rightly crediting his primary competition, Wild Bill

There's nothing in any sport quite like a terrible bench bat coming to the plate in a critical playoff AB. I still remember the look on my roommate's face watching Michael Martinez come to the plate at the end of the 2016 WS.

How wild would it be for Yandy to take strike three called out of the zone to end the game, and it stands because he has never challenged a pitch yet?

Well, that was an equally entertaining strike three to end the game, wasn’t it?

Please stop throwing into the dirt

This sucks for the Rays. Down in the top of the 9th both nights. They make things happen, but then don't do much. I guess they still can tonight. But two meh outs here.

wow what a curve

He checked his swing. What an awful way to end the game

I say again, what is a check swing?

I thought he went, gutty by Ashby to pull that out

Replay of that swing?

They are bound to showing the celebration sequence without interruption, because, for some reason, the celebration has become the top clippable and shareable moment of any sports event.

Holy hell what an ending

That was ridiculous

Still waiting for the replay of that 'swing'

Rays felt lost at the plate after DeLuca got on.

NO HE DID NOT!

Junior went further around than that

oof not even close

Someone had to be somewhere tonight I guess.

yikes

Oh, yeah, he went

Overhead view makes it look like a swing to me

I think the overhead view is misleading.

I don’t. He went, by a lot.

I think that was a swing, but I've seen that called not a swing plenty of times.

I guess the owners want the larger market to win this one!

Tampa is the larger market by a good deal.

Milwaukee metro population: 1.5 million. Tampa 3.1.

higher salary

Landing planes is hard 😉

mil has way more wealth than Tampa per person I'll wager

My theory is it always depends how the 1B/3B ump is feeling.

or if he ate something dangerous for lunch

Need a poll on whether that was a swing, interested in how it breaks down.

If the ump has his hands in his pockets or more relaxed, he won't call a swing.

I don’t believe this at all. I think umpires are quite good at getting check swings right, at least as currently defined, which is bat crosses the line perpendicular with the front edge of the plate.

I'm being partly facetious. But you can tell the call by the umps body language before he signals. At least I think I can.

I have herd pitchers called dogs more this season than any other.

Maybe mlb should actually define a swing in the next cba.

New poll. I'll leave that open until next game.

good night

Tight 45/55 swing poll so far.

I don’t know if he did, but feel like the Brews deserved to win that game


Effectively Wild Episode 2548: Bullpen Blame

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Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, and Ben Clemens banter about World Series roster and rotation decisions, the Fall Classic through a “styles make fights” lens, whether travel days are really rest days, and more. Then (31:50) Ben C. delivers a guest Stat Blast about whether bullpen games are really risky because the more pitchers you use, the more likely you are to run into a reliever who “doesn’t have it” that day, and Ben L. Blasts about players who played for three playoff teams in the same season and players who played for a few World Series winners in a row without appearing in the postseason. Finally (1:02:33), Ben and Meg banter about Angels turnover, Yankees non-turnover, Shohei Ohtani’s two-way future, NPB postings, a KBO breakout, a new baseball video game and K-drama, and a Yandy Díaz nickname.

Audio intro: Andy Ellison, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Benny and a Million Shetland Ponies, “Effectively Wild Theme (Pedantic)”

Link to MLBTR on series rosters
Link to Woodruff story
Link to Cleavinger story
Link to Martinez news
Link to Rosenthal on Martinez
Link to Ben C. on starter timing
Link to Ben C. on Game 7s
Link to Yankees WC SP story
Link to Ben C.’s series preview
Link to ESPN series preview
Link to Ben L. on playoff trends
Link to Russell on “half days off”
Link to “Mathemadage” series
Link to Cooper post
Link to Ben C. on bullpen games
Link to FiveThirtyEight on hot hand
Link to Ben L. on bullpenning
Link to Sam on bullpenning
Link to Russell on “cruising” SP
Link to Curt on Brewers rings
Link to Henderson story
Link to three-peats sheet
Link to Feduccia request
Link to MLBTR on Angels GM
Link to MLBTR on Suzuki
Link to Goldman on Boone
Link to Cashman news
Link to Steinbrenner comments
Link to Attanasio comments
Link to Attanasio comments 2
Link to Xbox non-AI AI release
Link to Ohtani updates
Link to Selig first pitch
Link to Selig on EW
Link to Lyons on Hilliard
Link to Stove League wiki
Link to Stove League EW wiki
Link to Full Count announcement
Link to Call of Duty mission
Link to baseball RPG tweet
Link to Sato posting news
Link to Oda news
Link to Bartleby wiki
Link to Game 1 box score
Link to Baumann on Game 1

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00:26:38

FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: October 24, 2026

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

If last night’s Game 1 was any indication of the action to come, we’re in for a thrilling World Series. The Brewers jumped out to an early lead and barely held on to beat the Rays, 3-2.

The game had plenty of action. The first run scored on a Christian Yelich triple to center field. Jonny DeLuca laid out for it and nearly made a sensational catch. It was a fitting way for a World Series between these two teams to begin. There were two outs at third base, the first when Victor Mesa Jr. was caught stealing to end the top of the fifth, the second in the home half of the frame when Mesa cut down David Hamilton trying to stretch a double. William Contreras caught two Rays trying to steal. Junior Caminero scorched a 112.7-mph double in the fourth inning. Jacob Misiorowski casually and consistently threw 103-mph heaters, but only struck out three batters. The Rays loaded the bases against closer Trevor Megill in the ninth, and grounded into what was initially ruled a game-ending double play. Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash challenged, and the out call at second was overturned after replay revealed that shortstop Cooper Pratt’s foot came off the bag before he received the throw from second baseman Brice Turang. The call at first was confirmed for the second out, but a run scored. Still, the drama was all for naught; Megill took the mound again and struck out DeLuca to end it.

For more on the fun in Game 1, check out Michael Baumann’s story from Milwaukee. He’ll be providing in-person reporting throughout the World Series, so be sure to follow along. And if you haven’t yet joined us for a Members-Only Game Thread during this postseason, I can’t recommend them enough. Conversations we’ve had in those threads inspired two of the questions we’re answering in this week’s mailbag, on the most heroic World Series losers and the fewest number of starts a pitcher would need to win the Cy Young. We’ll get to those questions and more in a moment, but first, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »


The First Cut Is the Deepest: Buzzsaw Brewers Take Game 1

Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

MILWAUKEE — The 2026 Brewers aren’t your typical postseason buzzsaw. They’ve won with defense and relief pitching, and their eight postseason victories have come by a combined 13 runs. Half of those games ended either with a Milwaukee walk-off hit, or with the opponent’s tying run on base. Every postseason game the Brewers have played was a one-run game in the sixth or later; they haven’t scored more than seven runs in a game since their 101st regular-season win.

But they are a buzzsaw, and in Game 1 of the World Series — Milwaukee’s first Fall Classic game in 44 years — into the blade went the Tampa Bay Rays. The Brewers put two runs on the board in the top of the first, and they led the rest of the way, albeit not by much. Jacob Misiorowski allowed one run over five innings, tying the longest postseason outing of his career, and the Rays struggled to put a counterattack together until a furious but ill-fated ninth-inning rally.

Round 1 went to the home team, 3-2. Read the rest of this entry »


Members-Only Game Thread: World Series – Oct 23, 2026

Welcome to our Open Game Thread for the World Series game today. Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual staff Q&A chats, your messages will be posted immediately.

Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this is a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts. We might even have some FanGraphs Staff drop in and join the fun. Please be courteous to your fellow Members, or you may find your chat privileges revoked.

i think the team that has the highest BLEPH is going to win tonight

Please go seven games, please go seven games.

We'll be chat while trick-or-treating!

Happy World Series!

If people want to get nostalgic here are links to Jeff and August's articles from their time here…
Jeff Sullivan: https://www.fangraphs.com/blog-roll?author=7030
August Fagerstrom: https://www.fangraphs.com/blog-roll?author=43631

Might also influence your vote.

Feels like August got an unlucky draw here, he's awesome but Jeff IS classic FanGraphs

August was one of the first _writers_ to leave for a team. And definitely the first of many here. Because after him was Cameron, Carson, then Sullivan.

lol shows what I know!

Pretty special series here.

Cmon clap for respect

Hello folks!

Need a poll on whether it's a good idea for the Rays to push Rasmussen back a day, or if they're overthinking it.

This is a situation where I defer to "the team has more information than we do." Ramsussen's feel, rest, etc.

I also wonder if there's wisdom in trying to maximize your chances of winning the non-Miz games. Probably getting a little too cute if that's the thought process, but it might play a role

I'd come down on the side of too cute. I'd want my ace to be available as much as possible during the WS.

No overweight players anymore 😂

Those Brewers entrance LEDs/Barrels/CO2 machines actually looked really good. Most of the time, whatever the teams do looks bad.

I can sing much better than this in opposite land.

She crushed the anthem. Damn

I wonder if the NPB is like, World? Really?

theyre prolly more like "World?, 本当に?"

Is the roof open? I'm streaming the radio broadcast and they haven't mentioned while I was paying attention.

I don't believe MLB allows it to be open. Or at least they are in charge of it. It should be closed to my knowledge.

Pity. If you have baseball in Wisconsin in late October, it should feel like it.

Yah it’s closed

If they have a problem with it they can come over here and take it from us

Too soon. lol

They sent Ohtani to take it.

what in the AI bulls**t is this malarkey

It sucks that the one time of year where there's amazing nationally televised baseball is also the one time of the year when commercial breaks are full of the most vile ads

I just realized that before tonight, I'd been to as many World Series, with as many wins to show for it, as both these teams put together

Do they have cheese curds and Spotted Cow in the pressbox?

There's a whole curd stand on this level. That's where I took the now-infamous Brat Rangoon photo. But no Spotted Cow. They didn't even have it at the bar I ate dinner at last night

Nearly all the other New Glarus beers are better than Cow … but you knew that

Any idea when this game will actually start?

I was thinking 8:08, but looks like that wasn't the case.

tomorrow afternoon

Hey friends!

two batters, two relatively well hit balls

Baumann, how's Wisconsin treating you?

He has had no spotted cow. I don't believe he's actually in Wisconsin.

One of my fellow writers just produced a two-pound bag of sausage from his backpack and offered to share, so things are going well here

its too bad this cant also be streamed via mlb tv. im on fubo instead and gonna be like 30 seconds delayed

Nothing but cheese from Miz so far

He's in the right state for cheese

Just like the Woodman's cheese aisle.

What a delightful swing from Simpson. I love it.

Raysball right there

What’s our take on the lineup choices? Milwaukee tinkering with order a bit and someone with a Time Machine from 2005 would have a heart attack about Simpson hitting 3…

It's hilarious how shallow the LF was and how quickly he got to Simpson's hit.

I do like that David Hamilton.

Miz looking good so far

Rays def not afraid of Miz

brewers def not afraid of nick martinez

That Simpson hit? 57.8 MPH.

Beautiful.

Brings a tear to my eye

Big spot already for Martinez. The Brewers feel like a bad matchup for him.

Wow, the green screen ad behind the batter is particularly egregious.

it looks like the typical angels broadcast (derogatory)

Yeah, I really miss charming local advertising in games. Happens on NHL dasherboards, too.

Next year you will be forced to bet on the game in order to watch it

Is Bauers okay? That was only six pitches

Yelich batting third? Why?

Welp

Baseball Posts that Age Poorly

I need a forehead slap emoji

Is it just me or does Smoltz trip over his words way more often than other color guys

Slightly to my surprise, here in Canada Sportsnet has their own announcing crew I guess? I don't have to listen to Smoltz!

Just like a Canadian to flaunt their superiority.

That's why.

He missed the catch! hello everyone

Man, I am so used to major leaguers making those catches that I am half-tempted to call for an error on that.

Can I change my vote on holding back Rasmussen?

I'll make a poll tomorrow that has a choice: I regret my vote from yesterday.

My goodness. Both of those balls hit leather.

Scorched off the bat

Looks like the Rays defense is not crisp today.

xBA of .630 and .620 according to statcast

Luck on Brewers side so far

hard to blame the rays defense with those EVs imo

Rays just getting all the bad luck out of the way inning 1 of game 1. It's strategic

I've determined that I want Milwaukee to win. The thought of Chandler Simpson batting #3 on a world series team is too much to handle.

The guy who almost won a batting title?

FanGraphs batting title should be wRC+

Personally, I find myself leaning Milwaukee just because they had the Violent Femmes playing a pregame concert. You deserve to win when you do that.

Simpson did beat Jose Ramirez by 1 wRC+ this year… But Cleveland is on another level strategically by batting him #2 instead

They made Chourio the Fonz. That works.

rays should just get the bad luck out of the way for the next 4 games

Simpson will get hits and never hit into DPs.

i love chandler simpson, but why not bat him first and push yandy/aranda down a slot

Not really a question quite yet but: if you're the Rays, how aggressive do you want to be using your best bullpen arms early if you're behind in this game?

On the road in Game 1, maybe not so much?

What I'm curious about is how often Cash will turn to his top end guys while losing, he did it a lot against Cleveland, if Milwaukee gets 4-5 looks I'd be worried

Yeah, same, but I've felt the same several other times in these playoffs only to find the managers disagreed with me.

Definitely feels like the Rays bullpen isn't set up as well as the Brewers' for this type of situation. Tons of single inning guys with a reasonably well defined hierarchy, bad combination if you're trying to avoid giving too many looks

or maybe 2nd if you still want yandy at leadoff

As a Crew fan, live the Rays bringing the infield in 1st inning. Dubious

Great challenge. Gotta be sure to challenge in a low-leverage spot.

Miz tightened up pretty good in the second

Against Cleveland that was definitely not a swing. 🤣#miz perks

Great piece of hitting by Frelick to go down and get that. Wow. His back knee was almost on the ground.

O/U 7.5 bunts tonight now that the first one is down?

I want to live in a world where that over hits

I only want to live in that world if they're attempts to bunt for hits

I personally don't think Hamilton will do anything other than attempt to bunt for hits

Ask Edwin Diaz about that.

Is it just my TV or is the video stretched vertically?

I don't have that here

No TV problem here.

Did it make Nick Martinez's muscles looked normal sized

Pretty odd Savant pitch value profile for Nick Martinez: 97th percentile for fastball, 91st percentile for offspeed, 17th percentile for breaking

The changeup he got Mitchell on to end the first was absolutely gross

From ~200 feet, Sal Frelick looks enough like Garrett Stubbs when he's running I've done a double take whenever he gets on base

I'm Abed from Community and there are several plausible timelines where DeLuca and Walls catch both of those balls.

are they the ones where everyone has goatees though

your Pudi. hey! Loved that show back in the day

A lockout is the darkest timeline

I'm not Danny Pudi but did not have faith people would get the reference without me setting it up.

Misiorowski in the mooooorning

Martinez actually looks super sharp

First guessing here – I always want the best pitcher in game 1 of WS to maximize the odds of using him thrice 1-4-7.

+1 for using thrice

fantastic band, and good baseball writers

Rays have taken several middle-middle four seamers already.

Can’t hit it if you can’t see it

Has Miz thrown a good breaking ball yet?

must've heard you and obliged

Enjoyed the horizontal statcast view of the slider vs 4S. I feel like statcast never gets utilized in unique ways on the national broadcasts, would like to see some more of that

Totally! No brainer.

Who in the minors is the next Miz? if anyone

Susana?

Was the Miz the next Miz in the minors? My recollection was that he was thought of as high ceiling, super high risk, potential future closer.

that sounds like what they say about Susana

His command jumped from below average to average just before he was called up. Tough for prospect raters to adjust

Yankees-Dodgers is clearly the darkest timeline from a World Series perspective

The Miz cutter is working. More please

I’ve been having a debate wit someone about what we think the TV ratings for this Series will be. He thinks it will be worst in history because of the small market teams. I think the various narratives around this Series will goose the ratings some and be reasonably decent considering this fragmented media era.

This is interesting. 2023 was the worst per Wikipedia. And those are bigger markets.

But also far less interesting teams. IMHO

Crazy to think in 1978, we'd be watching with 44.4 million other people.

In 2026, we might only have 8 million other people.

I’m sure that many people will see clips.

sounds like a waste of time unless one of you works for Fox. watch the games, who cares?

This is MIND BOGGLING!

Curious how people are watching. I’m on YouTubeTV.

I bought a one month fox subscription through Prime

Listening to Brewers radio via MLB app.

Fubo…

OTA local Fox station at the moment… might switch to stream (Sling) later

Yandy first time up: 99.9 mph exit velo, 347 feet the other way, F9
Second time up: 101.7 mph exit velo, .650 xBA, lineout.
Miz has handled everyone else fine but Yandy must want his money back

Yandy's LASER was a good example of why playing 3B is fun (if you have the balls for it, and protect them).

The brewers just put teams in the vortex

I'm rooting for the Brewers because I'm a Yankee fan, but also because I really want to see Yelich win one. Do the rays have anyone like that? Rasmussen with his injuries maybe?

But what was Yandy's BLEPH?

yandy paying to hit against Miz is real sicko stuff

the man wears medium T shirts – those poor shirts!

the MIA/Brewers trade for Yelich was armed robbery!

Best Kalshi add I’ve seen. Still will never use that trash.

Shane Gillis and Danny McBride doing a Kalshi ad together is excruciatingly on-brand.

This chat is cool on the app to use

How do I get to it on the app?

Has any other team ever worn their alternates this much in the playoffs

Laying off all that 100 plus, half an inch off the corner was really impressive by Aranda

I finally got here only to find out I missed a triple! That’s sad, I love triples.

With Yelich's original back it would have been a homer. It was a nice barrel (I assume).

Sorry to be that guy, but it was a fake triple! It hit leather!

On a diving attempt

I'm really liking new teams and players in the Series

Chandler SImpson batting 3rd feels a little "too cute" to me

Ugh, Mitchell botched that one.

That was a screamer

That's a lot of hits on balls that hit the glove today

Yah he wasn’t running

Balls off CF glove 1 to 1

I’ve played plenty of center and liners right at you are the worst

I think Miz is done

At low 50s pitches? You sure?

Nope

Mitchell was an E8 (in a world where I'm official scorer)

The threshold is "ordinary effort," and he broke in the right direction and was at a full stretch. That's a hit.

I usually keep score when I'm at the park, and I largely ignore what the official scorer says.

It's a hit but a lot of CF's would have had it in their hip pocket.

You're probably right based on how it's done. But in my timeline, you're supposed to catch that ball.

Some would, but I think a lot wouldn’t. That wasn’t a gimme.

There's a surprising amount of multiverse theory in this chat.

In the other multiverse, no one is talking about the multiverse and the Rockies are winning.

Are official scorers allowed to use Statcast catch probabilities?

The last thing I want to see on a World Series broadcast is the betting trend for who’s gonna win.

I'm going to be laughing about "Misiorowski in the Mooorning" for days to come. Thank you for that.

Holy crap Aranda was off the line. Rays positioning I tell you what

that should count toward 2B eligibility

There haven't been many instances where I have seen a 1st baseman that far into the hole.

There is a 98.9% chance that this chat is 50% more filled with stats than 90% of other chats.

Was that an odd place for the first baseman to play Pratt 3-and-2, two out, none on? He was practically lined up with where second baseman plays.

I love you Jonathan Aranda

I am not surprised to see Murphy get someone up. Misiorowski is not quite the same tonight.

He’s been off for a while now. The season has definitely worn him down a bit

Miz down to 97

In the Miz vs Skubal game I couldn't stop looking at their enormous feet. That game might have had the largest combined SP shoe size of all time. (Someone research this please)

John Rauch had the biggest feet I ever saw an a ball player.

also would accept ratio of combined shoe size to ERA

Rauch did not win that

The foul balls are noticable

He can't put the hitters away like he usually does.

Bauers!

That was a really impressive play on both sides

Have the playoffs demonstrated a playbook against Miz, that all opponents will take up next season?

Wait to hit him until the post

Seems more like fatigue than the scouting being especially better. The command on his breaking pitches has been abysmal so they can afford to sit fastball

Maybe, but it's always a game of adjustments, and if the strategy results in 5 innings of 1 run ball…

See? Told you he’s done.

Surprised Miz is still in there for Yandy.

What on earth???

!?!?

Bizarre play there with Yandy at the plate?

Yaaaaaas Contreras!!!!!

Why the hell are you stealing third there???

……….

Someone forward the Rays Ben Clemens resume

I would rather he stayed here.

Contreras continuing to have an incredible postseason

I'm just an unfrozen caveman lawyer – your modern ways confuse me – but even I know that when the dude throws 100 on some level the scouting report is just like it says on Leslie Nielsen's tombstone: "Let 'Er Rip!" (true story – he put a fart joke on his tombstone)

Is it just me or does Ariana Grandes eyes suggest demon possession

That was nearly Austin Wells trying for 3rd level of dumb

Quick poll. Does Miz come out for the 6th?

No

If the Brewers score a couple or more, for sure.

Probably not. Think he was emptying the tank in the 5th

yes

TOOTBLAN alert?

Throw so perfect too

Given the way Cash has managed the playoffs to this point, I'm surprised Matz is up.

I’ll take a veteran pitcher in the post

Wow REALLY stupid decision against Mesa

Victor Victor Mesa Mesa Jr

Catch-22 is my favorite book, and Major Major is one of the better characters (actually Major Major Major since that's also his rank)

Why not hold up after the stumble

I wonder if he thought it'd be harder to turn back once he started stumbling

OOF

At least it was the second out at third

another out at 3rd, wow

My favorite play in baseball, that was incredible

Holy redemption, Batman!

Stat from Canadian tv: in the expansion era, name the 5 starting pitcher seasons with the lowest BA against 3rd time through the order. List includes Miz this year, Pedro 1999, Ryan 1974, a Blake Snell season, and…another guy.

Arrieta 2015?

Clay Bucholz in 2013

dueling TOOTBLANs

good band name?

Drum and bass underground house duo

That's such an impressive relay by Williamson, who wasn't a second baseman until this season. That's not a natural throw for him.

Don’t run against Contreras. Don’t run against Mesa.

If it's from Sportsnet, I'm gonna say Kevin Gausman or Cy Young Robbie Ray

Buchholz in 2013!

That may go down as the worst decision of the game.

Or maybe Halladay?

wow Clay Bucholz is a Remember Some Guys pull

.8912 BLEPH! on that play

I love how single season baseball stats capture random dudes playing out of their mind for a season

where are you guys getting these team tags from?

good to settings then flairs

go**

This is the only game in 2026 that Miz didn't K at least 5 in a start of 5 innings or more.

Chat settings button in the upper-right

Thanks! Do they have Black Sabbath or is it just MLB teams?

Nick Martinez 5 Ks, Miz 3 Ks. Can't predict baseball.

Clay Buchholz is one of those guys for whom FIP-based WAR was created. In bWAR he looks like he's just great or terrible at random. In fWAR he's just a good-not-great pitcher with a fast decline.

they fired the BLEPH guy, let's get a better nonce acronym

top right of chat window, gear picture, chat settings

i bet nobody else has this combo

Sorry about the self-loathing; that must be unpleasant.

eugh

fwiw it's definitely in that order

Contreras is awesome at challenges.

Contreras is awesome at baseball

i'll tell you my flair story if you tell me yours

fangraphs member survey on the stories behind their flair

lockout article alert

Mine is boring, no teams close enough to home to count as hometeams while I was growing up, but my father was from Boston and we went up there a couple of times a year and occassionally caught a game at Fenway.

A lot of us single-team people will be boring. I grew up in New England, left for a job, miss it.

I was a multi-team fan until the Giants left NY. It has been more fun dedicated to one club.

who was more impressive to see live, mays or mantle or teddy ballgame?

Contreras MVP

Tough looking double play there for TB

This is the throw-'em-out game, I guess.

So many great arms tonight!

Contreras is awesome at baseball!

DO NOT RUN ON CONTRERAS

perhaps simpson is not the best 3rd hitter

They don't have him batting there because he's the 3rd best hitter

I lived in all 3 places (and never once considered liking the Yankees)

My parents were in NYC in 1962, my mother had the Mets as her favorite team till the day she died because she was still rooting for the underdog from that year. She also claimed Mets games were better entertainment than other teams, because you never knew what would happen on a "routine" popup.

Man, all kinds of runners getting cut down

I assume that one was a hit and run which isn't a bad call with Simpson's contact rate. Just looks horrible when it fails

BryanB is the Rays closer, he has changed sides and is now operating as a sleeper agent

It would be amazing if he was posting on his phone from the bullpen

It’s an XK Red 27 technique

Dumb question: does the catcher get the WPA for a caught stealing? Do they get the negative WPA for a successful steal?

There’s no defense in WPA just pitchers.

bosox for life with the age related flex

Really think Laurila should interview him in the offseason.

lockout article klaxon strikes again

Is it common for shortstops to wear the pitch com?

Apparently all infielders wear them? Or at least some. There was a whole kerfuffle earlier this year when players on first could hear the pitch call on Nate Lowe's pitchcom because the volume was up too loud

I think several infielders do- I saw Freddie freeman holding his hand over his hat/ear in an earlier series

I am fairly certain if you let pitch com reach the SS then the other team is listening.

Mays was the best because he was great at all phases of the game. Williams was in a class by himself as a hitter.

If Willie Mays had a Statcast card, it would be blood red from top to bottom.

It’s gonna end in a walk off?!?! Call Bowie!!!

I believe the broadcast missed an adorable side hug between Contreras and Aranda during that PitchCom malfunction. If I'd gotten a hug like that from a girl I liked I'd be walking on air for the rest of 9th grade

Just because we're throwing each other out doesn't mean we can't be friends

11th grade for me.

Willy C has the largest eye black tape I have seen

I love it

He and Yandy need to have an eyeblack-off

They should have a live face painting station before the game

cant wait for bauers to have a unicorn on the left side of his cheek

LOLLLLLL

I swear those pitch cons are made out of balsa wood and spit

Imagine Matz not throwing strikes, at his age

I think Harper also paints his whole face?

Harper is at some point going to force us to have a serious conversation about when "a ton of eye black" turns into "doing blackface on the field"

No, spit was banned back when bosoxforlife was a kid

Try telling that to Don Sutton and Jerry Reuss

Lew Burdette's nickname was "Lubricated Lew".

I think they should have a live face painting session before the game

Miz in full tiger face paint firing 103 would be peak

🦄

Baumann, during the lockout can we start a fantasy league of your 300 metros setup?

I don't know what this means

I think this is referring to your mega expansion idea

Pan-American Municipal Baseball League, 150 franchises? sorry i misremembered the number

Ohhhhh yeah definitely. I'm not sure I want to administrate such a thing, but if someone else wants to hack OOTP and make it work that could be fun

Meg and Appelman keep me locked in a windowless room unless I come up with three insane ideas a week, I have trouble remembering them all

RISP

Uribe – Hall – Ashby – Megill as needed to close it out

I think you can skip Hall.

I’m telling you, next season pitchers will pitch one pitch each

Caminero has great vibes in all circumstances from what I've seen

I will always root for a guy in sport specs

Richie Palacios vs. Ashby would be a real Sophie's choice for you

I'm sorry, but Palacios' glasses are too neon. Too neon by far.

Rec specs!

Where’s Karim Abdul Jabar when we need him

I love Ashby but there's no way the "two innings every game" bit works for him again this series, right?

I consistently underestimate him

The forehead sweat zoom in was pretty extra there by Fox

I'm growing to loath Polimarket advertising

I actually like the Craig Robinson one but I just find him funny

He sold out!

Beginning to be a fan of the stay-in-radius OF proposal

Is it harder for a lefty to bunt off a lefty or does it not matter?

MLB: if you want to turn away fans, keep advertising betting apps

Wonder where these gambling companies are getting all this money to buy adv—ohhhhhhh I get it

I guess T Mobile wants fans to be mad at them every time a fan disagrees with ABS.

I do so love it when a team is punished for a leadoff walk (unless it's my team of course)

Yet another run due to sketchy glove work.

One day they’ll stop throwing a first pitch strike to Chourio

Fox reduced all glove sizes by 20%

this seems plausible to me

Lachlan Murdoch: Baseball is boring. In cricket, men do not wear gloves. Can we get rid of the gloves?

I have no idea if that's fair

the wicketkeeper (catcher equivalent) in cricket does wear gloves!

Cricket does everything it can to make defense difficult. Of course, the fact that you can bounce the ball on the way to the wicket and that they don't replace a scruffed ball also make offense difficult, but a cricket bat is a much better shape to hit a round ball with.

They don't just not replace a scuffed ball, a single ball is used for hours at a time.

Yes, when you hit it over the fence they pause the game to get the ball back

also, south africa just beat australia in long form cricket and their captain batted for 9 hours of game time

(beating australia is generally difficult)

I don't know it like baseball, but I have enjoyed the Cricket I have watched.

and you have to bowl the ball in a way that looks deeply unnatural to me as a baseball player. I was once playing catch in the Caribbean and some kids wanted to play with us. I wondered why their form was so weird and then I realized that they were "bowling" my baseball

In Australia, some pals tried to teach me to bowl. Felt like I was going to separate my shoulder

There is a chance the rest of the country finds this a very boring game and I don’t care

I will take multiple guys getting thrown out on the bases any time

Great pitching there

A 93-mile changeup that does *that* is unfair.

The bowler cannot bend his arm at the elbow in the delivery.

with modern biomechanics they have realized that some bend in the elbow is inevitable, but it is indeed very limited

also, no foul territory!

ADS! ADS! ADS! More ads! Always ads!!

That pitch brought to you by Kalshi!

Emmanuel Clase, come get your 1 pitch payment

A single cricket match at the highest level lasts five days.

hence the 9 hours of batting by 1 guy!

Novig has better Ads than polymarket.

Rays Raysing Vilade to second base

Brewers mission comes down to “can we get the first four hitters out?” If so, it’s a wrap.

Last five in tonight’s lineup hitting .161 AVG, .429 OPS in playoffs. Really really rough.

Ahh Reacher. Such a good show.

Uecker was just given a shout out. It is a shame he couldn't have been around for this moment.

Just a bit outside

Uecker, Yogi and… who are the other two on the Mt. Rushmore of humorous ball players?

Bouton

Fidrych?

Wasn't around long enough for a Rushmore spot, but everything Munenori Kawasaki ever did or said was comedy gold

I watch the "monkey never cramp" clip about once a year

Kawasaki still playing in lower-level Japanese ball, true baseball man

What role do we think Woodruff has in this series? Is he gonna get a start? Low leverage guy? High leverage bulk?

bulk reliever

He hasn’t pitched since July. He ms max 40 pitches. Not a bulk reliever.

Contreras is allowed to go into the dugout during a commercial break? I don't think I ever realized players could do that

how do you think they pee?

I predict a bunt attempt.

Well, uh, that was bad

DOH

Bad bunt! bad!

Prediction was good. Attempt was bad.

This is such fun baseball – I'm sure there will be some ratings grumbling, but doing my part and I hope the baseball remains awesome

Pat Murphy tomorrow: we had him do a bunt pop-up so they would give him a pitch to hit out

That didn't look like the technique of somebody who had ever bunted in his life.

Cleavinger ain't got it tonight

RISPd AGAIN.

Lentz is going to have the plate tomorrow. i hope he gets his eyes checked before then.

I forgot about Gary Sanchez

Ask the padres about that.

And the Brewers are going to counter by calling the Dodgers and bringing in Freddy Freeman.

What a pick

Caminero flashing the leather!

This might be the first time all season Sanchez didn’t use at least one challenge

It’d be nice if they could have fewer commercial breaks.

I was unaware of Polymarket personally

Sometimes when the game goes into a ton of extra innings they run out of commercials and keep it at the field between innings

Furiously searching fangraphs to fact check the announcer's claim that Trevor Megill was a starter with the New York Mets

The answer is no. Tylor is not Trevor

ah, they're mixing up their T Megills…

Classic Megill mix-up

you have high expectations from X ballplayers

I miss Joey Ortiz. Such a good defender and I still believe in his bat

Oh man this would be an incredible moment for the first Simpson homer

The Homer Simpson if you will

anyone giving up a homer to him would definitely think "D'OH!"

What is the over under for Ray’s garbage time outs?

Uhoh

Well this got interesting

Shoulda caught that dude

Man, this game is living up to the hype.

Anybody know if there is a Junior Caminero Jr?

(haha imagine if Caminero pulls an Alonso here)

Moments like this are what separates baseball from the rest.

WHAT A BALLSY MOVE – double steal with your best hitter up there??

Oh man, I get not throwing Junior a pitch there, but on 3-2 to throw it in the dirt…..

Not impressed with this pitcher at all

This ain’t good

Oh my gosh, is Megill crumbling?

Giving away the game

I've been following silently as I wrote the mailbag, but hi everyone!

That's not the worst walk

And damn!

And also, he didn't check his swing

Totally agree

Please identify what a checked swing is.

This is great baseball!

And just like that a classic ending. And we get another one tomorrow!

THERE WE GO!!!

its the worst walk given that he already struck out

what a finish!

Well, this is a big challenge.

My god

HOLY GUACAMOLE

Not over!

Wow! What a brewers way to win

Liam Hicks has been disappointing this playoffs, I had him as an X Factor to lengthen that lineup

I'm not sure he's out at second

Oh no

I think he's off the bag

FWIW, this is where replay kills it – the game is over and if they bring it back now (even if it's close)

Imagine Megill having to get back to the mentality to get the last out

Yah that first throw sucks

Woahhh

Then review the check swing you fickers.

If this was an AFL game they could! (But with the AFL check swing rules it would still be a no-swing).

He is off the bag. This will eb overturned.

Business idea: telescoping cleats that maintain contact with the base

Yah all Turangs fault

Holy Toledo, is this not the most monumental replay challenge in replay challenge history?

Ask me after the next batter.

Remember when there wasn't replay?

Wowowowow

did we make a mistake by allowing reviews

Yes (unless they help my team)

Did they set off fireworks?

Is Andy Fletcher a guy who has ever been on tv before?

My exact comment to wife

Wow this game man

Steal home?

Contreras can't throw him out at least.

that's a perfect job for Joe West

The celebration smoke will blind DeLuca.

Well, that's not reviewable.

i have been looking for a very poopy cat to give him dewormer and i forgot that there was a baseball game. i am not a real sicko, forgive me

Do they have more fireworks available?

Baseball remains awesome.

And we get to do this again tomorrow!

Holy cow what a game

Good drama there

Delaying the inevitable.

Most entertaining 3-2 game I've seen in a while

Brewers playoff ball is entertainment at its finest

this is a good world series between good and entertaining teams, if it doesn't beat 2023 i'll be upset

thank god the angels arent in the world series cuz i would have to go to the ER if this happened to them

Incredible opening act to this series. I really hope it goes 7 (because I have tickets 😅)

Have a blast at the games you get to go to!

Thanks!

In 1967 I had tickets to game 6 and had to sweat out game 5 because the Red Sox were down 3-1.

This is looking like a good series.

Yeah that was pretty fun. I hope the rest of this series can be at least that good.

Sean, as always, thanks for having us over!

Hopefully we have 6 more!

Ken Rosenthal doesn't come up to Jacob Misiorowski's shoulder.

one bad thing when the WS being over is no more fun chats 🙁

I’ll miss these

"members-only Dominican League chats"

hot stove fg chats: nothing happens for a very long time until passan himself drops ordnance on all our houses

I’ll be at Puerto Rican league next month

lidom could feed families

we're essentially one step away from creating fangraphs discord

i am traveling to aus but with the melbourne team leaving the abl i likely won't be able to catch any games

what a crazy game though. pat murphy must be fuming (happy?)

Megill definitely did not slam any doors shut

I’m fine if it only goes 4

Great game tonight! See everyone tomorrow!


Contract Crowdsourcing 2026-27: Ballot 2 of 11

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Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2026-27 free agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor league contract, or won’t receive a contract at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Statistics are prorated to full season values where noted. Unless otherwise indicated, the projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2027 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for 11 of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of infielders, including one with a big opt-out decision looming. Read the rest of this entry »


Contract Crowdsourcing 2026-27: Ballot 1 of 11

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Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2026-27 free agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor league contract, or won’t receive a contract at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Statistics are prorated to full season values where noted. Unless otherwise indicated, the projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2027 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for 11 of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of pitchers, including the winter’s top free agent. Read the rest of this entry »


Mathemadage: The Inevitable Reliever Blowup Theory

Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

If you’ve watched a postseason game in the last decade, you’ve heard the theory. Honestly, if you’ve watched a postseason game in the last decade, you’ve probably thought of the theory yourself. When a team eschews a regular starter and instead uses a string of relievers, surely one of those relievers is bound to be a little bit off. There are just so many of them. What, they’re all going to have it? C’mon, man. Be reasonable. And what happens as a result? Well, that reliever is going to give up a bunch of runs. You know, like pitchers do when they don’t have it. Obvious!

Hello, and welcome to another edition of Mathemadage. This time, we’re hot on the trail of what I like to call the Inevitable Reliever Blowup Theory. There isn’t one specific adage to point to here, but I’ve always wondered about this effect myself, and last week Other Ben (Lindbergh) forwarded me this tweet:

That was a good enough excuse for me to dig in – like I said, I’ve had this on my mind for a while, and the playoffs are the perfect time for a deep dive. But before I started cracking open my spreadsheets and coding agents, I did a literature review, because I knew I couldn’t be the first person to have investigated this. Back in 2015, Henry Druschel found that starters had more “disaster” outings than relievers, though he didn’t delve into the stacking aspect of using multiple relievers in a single game. I also found former colleague Kevin Goldstein’s investigation into the subject, which focused on the Rays’ ability to avoid reliever blowups. But those didn’t settle the debate for me, so I pressed on. Read the rest of this entry »


Postseason Manager Report Card: Stephen Vogt

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For lack of a more G-rated way to put it, Guardians manager Stephen Vogt managed his ass off during the playoffs. Though let’s be clear up top, a lot of managing is not always a reflection of smart managing. The Guardians operated with their usual duct-taped-together lineup, but in an uncharacteristic break with their recent history, they had just two bona fide starters in Parker Messick and Gavin Williams. That gives us a boatload of managerial decisions to dissect across Vogt’s 11 postseason games, especially on the pitching side. So with the team having fallen just two wins short of reaching the World Series for the first time in a decade, I’m back to grade Vogt’s October performance.

As both Ben Clemens and I have mentioned before each of our previous manager report cards this postseason, I care about process and not results here. It’s easy to say, “That was a great move because it worked,” or “That was a bad move because it failed,” but managers obviously can’t know the results of their decisions as they’re making them. I’ve tried my best to transport myself back to the moment of each decision — taking into account the pitches, innings, and plate appearances that led up to it — while ignoring the outcome.

Lastly, before we get into the grades, I’ll also reiterate that while these are ostensibly manager report cards, there’s a much larger group of people behind the skipper that helps to inform his decisions. Before the game, that includes discussions with the front office, which provides the reams of data that every manager has at his disposal during play. During the game, he’s getting feedback from his coaching staff and players on their levels of health and readiness. It really does take a village to get through a baseball game, and realistically, the praise and scorn doesn’t belong to the manager alone. Read the rest of this entry »


Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 10/23/26

Howdy from the kitchen table in Tempe where I'm being serenaded by a symphony of leaf blowers just over the back wall.

Sorry that this is my first chat in a couple of weeks, I've been dealing with some still-undiagnosed health stuff that seems to be abating. Pretty sure I'm okay. Had some illuminating experiences with our health care system though, and I'm pretty sure that's not. Anyway, I've still been at a ton of Fall League games and have a midway point post and Board update brewing, which might run as soon as later today but more likely Monday. For now, we chat.

How much upside does Luis Lara have as a hitter? What would be a reasonable projection for him a few years down the road?

He has as much upside as he can add strength without compromising the things he currently does really well. I think he's always going to be a sub-.400 SLG guy who plays awesome defense and makes a ton of contact. I think he has better long term upside than what Sal Frelick has been, but that what Frelick has been able to do is a lot like what Lara's skillset looks like right now.

All of that is to say: I feel comfortable with the 45 we put on Lara, but less comfortable with it than the 45 we put on Pratt. Both feel like solid role players rather than stars.

Request to pass on: add a filter to the minor league leaderboards for prospect status. I'd love to be able to quickly filter to the guys of note and/or see what sort of stats are reasonable for prospects rather than 29 YO journeymen

We do have that, just click on the "Show All" tab and you can set filters for age: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board-scouting-and-s…

Thank you for doing these chats. Do you think the Mariners place Ace Reece in AA to start the year next year or just put him in Everett and fast track him if he has success. Also is his stock a little higher than it was after the draft and is he a potential top 100 prospect?

I would ordinarily tell you that they'd give him a good amount of big league reps during spring training and then decide whether to start him at High-A or Double-A based on how he looks, but I think a lack of MLB spring training means we should take the "under", so to speak, on these guys' assignments. Reese probably isn't an offseason top 100 guy, I'm not one to be moved by an SEC hitter going to the Cal League after the draft and crushing it there. He should, it would have been alarming had he not. Send him to Everett and he'll probably do more of the same. He can't really play defense so I wanna see him crush in Arkansas before buying it, personally.

The fantasy community seems to have collectively gotten higher on Zion Rose in the months since the draft, and lower on Eric Booth Jr. Is this simple SSS overreaction, or are these informed by real scouting intel?

I can't speak for the fantasy "community" and I want readers to remember the way opinions spread online and how they can cloud what the array of opinions would be if everyone were sequestered before arriving at one. I can tell you that Zion looks damn good in the AFL, and that Brendan and I both agreed we should just 50 him this offseason. He's stock up. Booth is a hold. What your dynasty team needs (do you need a solid regular soon? Or do you need to take a shot on a potentially freaky stud who might also bust?) should dictate how you line them up on your FYPD board.

Congratulations on your promotion to Prospect Impresario!

This has been what Baumann has called me since the Crashburn Alley days, back in… 2012? Sheesh.

Hey Eric! This is John McNamara. We spoke last year when I interviewed with FanGraphs for the full-time prospect writer role. I was a scout with the San Diego Padres for eight years, and I really enjoyed our conversation about baseball and scouting. I recently wrapped up my time with the Padres and am looking for my next opportunity in baseball. I’d love to get your thoughts on where my scouting background might translate or if there’s anyone you think I should connect with. I’d really appreciate any advice or guidance. Thanks

Hey John, I remember. You were a good candidate and interview. I worry that scouting isn't exactly a growth industry, especially on the pro side. It's more stable on the amateur side because of how much more valuable and actionable "dope" is, and the fact that teams are guaranteed to acquire players via that market, whereas pro impact is more situational. So I'd try to stay on the amateur side. I also think it might be fruitful for more scouts to transition into college baseball as recruiters/GMs. Depending on how things turn out with the pending legislation around college sports, and where things settle post-lockout/CBA with regard to draft processes, it might suddenly make more sense for colleges to have more scouting and recruiting personnel than they already do. Find out what scouts have left pro ball for a job at a college and see if you can reach out to them for counsel. It might be cool to be the transfer portal scout for Miami, or something like that.

You see a batter change levels and suddenly his swing, contact, groundball, and pull percentages all take big jumps. But it's only 20 games. Guy got a new coach who taught/convinced him of a new swing/approach or just a flukey 20 games? 20 games is very small sample for results, but seems decent for approach. Eye-test needed to see if anything is actually different?

You can pretty easily marry the data change flag with a look at the wing on video to get a better feel for whether or not there has actually been a change. If you have a way of flagging changes in the data over a short (but statistically significant) window of time and then running down the flagged targets with your eye balls, that's ideal.

Does Kendry Rojas of MIN still project as a starting pitcher?

Yeah, I think as long as he has options he'll be rolled out as a starter enough to keep his innings count within a reasonable distance of full-time starting once his option years run out. The guys who tend to stick as starters are the ones whose bodies and deliveries look like Kendry's.

Eric! The Cubs are running back their MLB pitching infrastructure, which got me thinking about their inability to build any kind of a minor league pitching pipeline for what is now almost 20 years of the Theo/Jed regime. Is it just bad drafting, bad development, or some kind of institutional blind spot that’s led to this? I’d have a hard time coming up with more than five pitchers in the last 20 years that they drafted, developed, and got value out of. In fact, Cease would probably be on that list and they traded him from A ball.

I think they've had some success but it hasn't been sustained success. Steele popped and then got hurt and looked like a shell of himself during rehab in AZ. I can say that their style of development tends to include velo spikes and pitch additions. Everyone suddenly has a cutter and a sweeper when before they had just one breaker, and they might throw a few ticks harder. But they haven't tended to develop or improve command. The Naz Mule's of the world don't need two more pitches, they need control. So maybe there hasn't been cohesion with what the draft has fed the dev group. Some teams, like the Brewers' pitchers, show similar trends where they all of a sudden have five pitches. And others, like the Rays, basically have guys throw 2 pitches the whole time they're in the minors and don't really care to flesh out repertoires as much.

After AFL, how much confidence do you have that 2025 is behind him, and Welbyn Francisca is a legit prospect again?

He's back from the dead, imo.

How much are we knocking off your future value due to the health concerns?

You should ding my "party/hang" tool grade because I can't drink until I'm done with this run of medication. It was already a 40, unplayable now.

Hope you continue recovering from your case of the bleph

The Royals have to trade Blake Mitchell this winter, right?

I think catching depth is important enough that, unless they think he's totally bunk from all the K's, they should probably hold onto him. If you think it's enough K's to make him a binary "no" as a hitter, than sure you can sell high on him coming off a 30 homer season.

This chat interface is so rad.

How is Briggs McKenzie looking coming off injury? Young, but seemed like he had some good stuff early on and the Braves are one of the better orgs developing pitchers

I saw his first start and haven't run into him since (I went to see the Fielder/Holmes movie last night) but he looked like Diet Bumgarner to me in the first game. Graceful, repeatable, deceptive, feel, good breaker quality. Starter all the way, mid rotation upside. Think we'll leave the 45+ on him, though, and make him a Pick to Click rather than hondo him right now.

Looking at these two teams, there are a lot of really productive guys on both rosters who probably would not have been stars had they been developed in other organizations. Logan Henderson's a good example! Obviously, when you're doing a Board-type prospect ranking, it's hard to take org into account because guys can get traded and it's impossible to control for that, but – how much of the variance in a prospect's outcome can be traced directly to what organization they're in? And, as an analyst, what do you do with that?

This is the classic "predicting vs scouting" question. We have to assess the player in a vacuum, but you should feel free to put your thumb on the scale of predicting the outcome based on what orgs you think/know are better at developing players, or putting them in position to succeed. Like Andrew Vaughn changed orgs after he graduated, there's nothing we can do about retconning our grade, things just happen and it plays out and you hope you're directionally correct on the player.

When evaluating future outfield defense, how do you determine whether a player who is transitioning to the OF has the capacity to judge the flyballs/get efficient and quick jumps?

Just watch the initial transition and see how natural it is for the player to do the things he needs to do at the OF position. Then give it time to breathe and check in a few months later on whether there's been progress. Some guys take to it right away, others need time/reps, and some will never get comfortable doing it.

Thanks for chatting! Angeibel Gomez has been raking lately in AFL. Does that change your opinion of his upside?

I think the very aggressive 50 we have on him is still appropriate. Real power and feel to hit, probably a corner OF in the end. To go from "new signee" to "guy we feel pretty strongly is a future everyday player" is really impressive. I don't think he's Acuna or anything like that.

Eric, it looks like the banner link is missing part of the url for this chat–the one in the blogroll works. Thought you'd want to know!

Thanks, idk why, we've asked Sean and I'm sure I just goofed something when I built the post because it's my first time chatting solo with this interface.

Did Salas’ debut move the needle for you? I wonder if he has enough bat to be a superstar catcher like you’d expect from one getting started as a 20 year old.

Yeah, I think he's a top 5 prospect and will be a consistent 3 WAR catcher.

Not a prospect, but is Victor Mesa Jr. a possible major breakout next year in an everyday role? No real platoon split that would seem to indicate he needs to sit against lefties.

Seems possible, yes. Swing changed, more power without sacrificing a ton of contact. Contact was actually better in '26 than before, even with the more aggressive swing. Obviously has profile-altering arm strength and defensive profile. Could be 40 hit with 45 or 50 power and big time defense. That's at least a good platoon guy (45) if not an everyday player. We had him graded as an extra outfielder, basically a pure defensive replacement.

I know your opinion or way of thinking of these low contact sluggers (e.g. Murakami) has changed somewhat. I assume Griffin Conine is a guy who would fit into that bucket of bats. I've been waiting for the bottom to fall out give his awful contact rate, but is this a guy who could have a more sustainable role going forward given this shift in the game?

Yeah, the number of sub-70% contact guys keeps climbing and it's at the point where I need to reassess my baselines for viability, or at least try to separate the guys who aren't gonna hit enough to matter from the ones who will somehow. There are still guys with 65% contact who just aren't going to hit, it isn't like all of a sudden those guys are good to go.

But why Murakami (who sucked down the stretch btw, he might be due for a regression and all of this will be moot) and not Jack Cust, or whoever.

By your rankings Eyanson, Zazueta, Flora and Susana are are close to each other. Do you have a personal preference/order to these arms that differs from the rankings and if so, why?

Nah, they're *my* rankings. Susana it's 99-102 with bad shape, bad strikes, and an elite slider. He's probably a reliever but one of the ten best relievers in baseball. Zazueta it's velo, ride, command, changeup, but no good breaking ball. Mid-rotation guy with a flaw that prevents him from being a no. 2 or better. Flora could be the most complete guy of that group if he can stay healthy and throw strikes across 140+ innings, Eyanson is a little closer to having done that with 100 IP in pro ball this year.

Any chance Patrick Reilly can still start even with the lost time? Slider is playing much nicer than pre-TJS

Yes, I think the more vertical breaker will play against lefties and there are enough strikes. He's probably a five-and-dive type, though.

Following up on a few weeks ago – any insight into why Aiva Arquette went on the IL for the last two days of the season?

Arquette had three IL stints this year. In order: Sports hernia (which is what I thought I had two weeks ago), thumb sprain, then oblique.

What would you say is the % chance Brody Hopkins just sticks in the pen from here on out? I'm assuming he gets another shot in the rotation next year at least, but is that for sure?

I'd say like 90% bullpen now that he's on the 40. Conversion arms tend to be in the bullpen.

In my (very deep) dynasty league I have a chance to draft Jared Grindlinger if I drop Xavier Neyens. Advisable, or would this be negligible gain?

I want Grindlinger

(also fyi the banner link leads to a 404 page)

This has been fixed

Now with 3 injury marred or inconsistent seasons under his belt, do you have any confidence in Evan Carter or Wyatt Langford reaching their full potential? They have both showed flashes, but Wyatt's decisions at the plate, defensive miscues and health have been infuriating. Carter also can't seem to choose an approach that gives him sustained offensive success similar to the lightning in bottle run he had in 2023. Do you have any recommendations for either of them or the Rangers moving forward that you've observed? Thanks again!

I'm still on Longford, Carter I think is just okay.

more like Eric Lags-at-hangin' amirite

I'm only good at cooking and writing anymore.

athletics and sports all select for outlier/"freakish" traits; are there things that you have seen in baseball that you did not think were humanly possible? did any "freaks" end up really panning out from your perspective?

I've seen deGrom in person three times and was blown away all three times. Acuna's balls in play made retirees at AFL games moan in kind of a scared way. Teenage Tatis BPs were crazy. Watching Gerrit Cole's Fall League debut was crazy. Stephen Strasburg Harrisburg home debut with so many fans taht they ran out of food, had a brown out and a rain delay, and hearing his breaking ball spinning through the humidity throughout the whole ballpark was crazy.

Even Ray Kerr. Like, Kerr is "just" a middle reliever but he's here in part because he's pretty freaky.

Whenever anyone does high-end stuff of any kind, I wanna hopefully be sensitive to that and bet that will play in the big leagues. It doesn't have to be guys who run fast or jump high or who are built like underwear models. It can be Alejandro Kirk framing pitches like he does.

Anyone floating around the minors with speed who could try to completely sell out power for bat control and make it like Chandler Simpson? Or do you need truly 80-grade speed to make that profile work, no 60s or 70s need apply

I think you need at least a 70.

What's your fav defunct baseball site? BrooksBaseball or StatCorner.

Brooks was big for me in college.

I emailed FG support without a reply a few weeks ago but can you possibly let them know to add contact% as possible category to add on milb custom reports. They have swinging strike% but knowing whiff/contact% is different. Thank you

Contact rate doesn't come from the game logs liek the other data, that's Statcast/Hawkeye/Trackman stuff that I source from team people. I'll approach Sean and Co. about integrating it into the board somehow, but it'd be an end of year data point rather than something that could update in real time.

More importantly….how was the Nathan Fielder doc on a 20-80 scale?

Still digesting it, in the 65/70 area for me. OJ Made in America is the 80.

Two-parter: what's the best quote you've ever gotten from a prospect, and what's the dumbest thing you ever heard someone say? I feel like during the lockout we should get more human interest reporting about what it's like to be a pro/amateur ball player.

Not a ton of prospect quotes from me, I talk to some kids at the Combine every year and have some questions for kids on occasion, but those questions are almost always to glean information about how they're being developed rather than the player himself. Jake Burger is really funny, JJ Wetherholt impressed all of us at the combine a few years ago, JA Happ was nice to be around when I was a kid at Lehigh Valley back in '08.

curious if you have thoughts about the hypothetical landscape of college baseball, supposing HS players were excluded from draft eligibility in the next CBA… in particular, would it make home games in a Big10 city more relevant on the level of getting to see some capital-D Dudes before the draft?

Yeah, it's roughly 50 players who I ranked, and probably another 15 or so who I didn't, who get signed out of high school now but wouldn't if HS players are no longer draft eligible. In the bucket of the college player population it isn't a ton of bodies. But it is a lot of the most talented kids. All it takes is one Rocker/Leiter duo to make some noise and grab people's attention, and it would ensure those guys do some version of that, even if it's just for a year or two like in the NBA. But the things that make college baseball tough to watch (all the walks, lack of pitching depth, midweek games that go 4 hours because of all the runs, a bloated run environment because the bats are like golf clubs) would remain.

No question but a feature request: ability to sort Team Stats on the Minor League side like the MLB stats leaderboards. Thanks for the great work!

Oh yeah, that's interesting. I wonder if there might be barriers to coding that retrospectively because affiliates change?

Speed development. I remember Julio Rodriguez was projected early to fall to a corner. What stopped him from doing that? Did he gain speed? Not lose as much as predicted?

There's a Divish article about Julio completely changing his eating and workout habits you should dig up.

How has Aidan Miller looked?

Healthy, mobile, fast. Ends up playing next to Walcott a bunch, so also looks more human.

Among other reasons why purely scouting a stat line is sub-optimal, what percentage of MiLB hits would more usually be outs in the show? Like 10% between fielding, positioning, and "hits" that actually errors?

Man, that's a tough question. It's super relevant. Can we just assess BABIPs and have an okay enough notion?

asked brendan this and curious for your answer as well. Caceras, Gomez, Renteria, Frias. if you were starting a team which one are you taking?

Frias, Gomez, Caceres, Renteria.

When it comes to a player like Bryce Rainer (high strikeout, big power, lots of walks in minors with surprisingly good average for K%) what kind of attributes do you look at to shade up or down on developing better contact? Is it more of a physical thing? More of an approach thing? Odds Rainer can rein in his strikeouts to become an All-star or better MLBer? (pun very much intended)

Lever/swing length (which is kind of a double-edged sword because it's easy to say the longer guys will shorten up as they get stronger {Walcott has} but sometimes they just can't) and feel for altering their hands to help them make contact. Like the way Judge tucks his hands in to shorten up against stuff near his torso. That's how you avoid being too long to make contact in there. Rainer isn't doing that right now, it's realy really long.

Thoughts on Villanova breaking up the Big 5?

Selfish, cynical, douche behavior.

In connection with my earlier question (predicting vs scouting), what *do* the various teams do well? I think as fans we can sometimes overblow this stuff. Like Cleveland and Atlanta really do seem to be able to churn out pitching, and Tampa and Milwaukee always seem to be more than the sum of their parts offensively, and Toronto *typically* seems like they can get their guys to hit – until this year. Et cetera! Who are the orgs who you'd identify as having genuinely repeatable strengths?

Some of it is acquisition related, some of it is player dev, and some of it is deployment. Yes, Cleveland makes pitchers better. They draft strike-throwers and turn them into harder-throwing guys without killing their command. Milwaukee seems to know what kind of bat these guys should be using. Bauers, Turang… they've all changed their gear in meaningful ways. I think bat design/weight/shape cab be tailored for each individual's swing and Milwaukee has done that. Their international department also finds dudes via a "go-wide" strategy, which they also emply in the draft by taking all these HS guys spread across lower seven figure and mid sic figure bonuses. WHen you have great dev, it makes sense to want more bites at the apple and they have that locked in. Tampa deploys guys in the ways they're best suited to succeed. When you have Manny Margot and Corey Dickerson and their skillsets compliment one another, you can put both in the best position to succeed on a rate stat basis. You're turning 45s in a vacuum into 55s on a rate basis, and then creating trade value as if the players are 50s and 55s, dealing those guys when they become expensive and snowballing similar prospects to ensure you always have enough guys around to do this…

Kiley and I wrote a whole chapter in Future Value about this. Obviously that was seven years ago and things are different. We try to do a version of this every year in the System Overviews of the prospect lists to give you an idea of what we think teams are good at.

Okay friends, 90 minute chat today feels like a good re-entry after two weeks off. Thanks for coming, enjoy the world series.