The fences moved in, and Michael Wacha felt the pinch. The right-hander allowed exactly twice as many home runs in 2026 as he did in the prior year, and the obvious place to look is the ballpark. Kansas City pulled the Kauffman Stadium fences in by enough to turn it from one of the toughest places to leave the yard into a roughly average home run environment. Or at least, that’s where I started when I set out to analyze Wacha’s 30 homers allowed, the third-highest mark in baseball and a career worst for the veteran pitcher.
I kept an eye on Wacha’s home run issue for two reasons. First, I was curious about how the new fences would play, and as a fly ball pitcher without strikeout stuff, Wacha was a great barometer. Second, I’ve done a lot of work on which pitches are most likely to get hit for home runs in the past few seasons, and Wacha generally finished high on those lists. But despite showing the characteristics of a pitcher who should get hit hard, he basically didn’t. Over 2024 and 2025 combined, no pitcher in baseball had a larger divergence between his expected home runs allowed, as calculated by PitchingBot, and his actual home runs allowed. Wacha’s pitches racked up 50.6 expected HR allowed during that span, according to my formulation of PitchingBot data; he allowed only 32, a gap of 18 homers. No one else had a gap of 15 or higher.
Through the end of June, there wasn’t much to pay attention to. But on July 4, Wacha got tagged for three homers at home against the Phillies, and from then on out, it was as though a switch had been flipped. From that day through the end of the season, he gave up 13 long balls at home, and another seven on the road. Was it Wacha? The stadium? Luck? I made a note to check when the playoffs were over. Today, I’d like to give you the results of that investigation, as well as revisit my old definitions of meatballs and expected home runs. Wacha’s glut of home runs allowed wasn’t simply a fluke, and the stadium wasn’t to blame for all of those added homers. Read the rest of this entry »
Hello everybody. Little bit of housekeeping: I think the Blue Jays list is going to run tomorrow. It might be Thursday but either way, we're on deck for a list. Braves will be close behind, either Friday or early next week I suspect. Rangers and Red Sox pretty close to done as well.
Brendan Gawlowski
With that out there, let's get cooking
leoneforthird
Post prospect question but do you think that Colt Emersons issues this year were due mostly to his undisclosed injury or adjusting to MLB. Or is it just impossible to tell with out being closer to the situation.
Brendan Gawlowski
Both. Injury clearly hampered him. Think he was rushed, AAA performance didn't scream "promote me now!" Still like him as a high floor type.
Phillip Denny
Hi Brendan! Do you have any way-too-early 2027 MLB draft takes? Overall draft quality/depth, potential 1.1 picks, etc?
Brendan Gawlowski
Lot of college pitching depth, which I think is the most fun kind of draft to follow, certainly the easiest to wrap your arms around as a fan/analyst. High school pitching looked pretty good at Area Codes, some of the consensus top up-the-middle bats didn't look quite as intriguing as they normally do. I don't have a hot take on 1:1 yet.
drummer66
What have you seen from Alex McCoy and Ty Harvey of the Padres in the Arizona Fall League? What are the holes in their games?
Brendan Gawlowski
McCoy might just have 80 power. Flawed player but so much juice that he'll likely do something. Harvey, I need to put on the tape defensively, bat is a work in progress, slow lane.
wheelhouse
What position does Kilby wind up playing if he has to move off of shortstop?
Brendan Gawlowski
Depends why he has to move. If he's still really fast but is just moving out of deference to Lombard or what have you, CF?
longsuffering
Hey Brendan – about Jake Cook – Do you feel like he's made strength gains enough to maybe get to a Kevin Kiermaier style of player? Crazy good speed, top flight defence, and enough hit tool to be a little bit dangerous? What's your take?
Brendan Gawlowski
100 mph EV90, 105 max for a 23 year old is not great, especially with his contact issues (tons of popups in addition to all the swing and miss). Eric talked me into keeping him on the main section, I agree that he's one to stay patient with given the background, but I'm not overly enamored with him.
Michael
BA just said Mitch Jebb has the best hit tool in the Pirates system . Am I crazy if I disagree. I'd pick 8-10 folks before I'd come to to Jebb
Brendan Gawlowski
Reminder that I generally try not to comment on the rankings/judgments of other outlets… I will say that this is a tough exercise with PIT. Look at our list from last year, and look at all those positional guys with future 3 or future 4 hit tool grades. Not a system overflowing with slam dunks in that regard.
Brendan Gawlowski
Which is a strange fit for the park, incidentally.
Ryanhasch31
How far has Juan Sanchez fallen after a rough season?
Brendan Gawlowski
He's in the 40 section.
miratutti
Care to humor me and possibly let me down quickly before Braves list…How far has Diego Tornes' stock fallen since last spring?
Brendan Gawlowski
He tumbled, low 40 currently. May kick him down another rung as I do my last gut feel toggles.
fuzwoz
Please speculate based on your pro experience: why would the Guardians use a 40 man spot on Jose Tena?
Brendan Gawlowski
I/we liked him as a prospect a couple years ago, maybe see a late bloomer chance?
Tristan
Could Mackenzie Gore represent a reasonable projection for Liam Doyle at this point?
Brendan Gawlowski
It could go that way… I think high-octane reliever is more likely.
miratutti
Who is the latest Toronto riser not named Bloss?
Brendan Gawlowski
Some of their depth infielders stepped forward last year, Goodwin and Harry both surprised me. Perry obviously surged out of nowhere. If there's a regular hiding in the low levels it might be Caricote.
vottogoat
Re: the Blue Jays list, what are the 2027 expectations for Jake Bloss after coming back from injury and pitching in the AFL?
Brendan Gawlowski
We somehow have two Jake Bloss questions… Weird season for him. Came back throwing gas, got tattooed anyway, velo down a little in the AFL. Strange sequence. I think the mid-rotation projection we had last year is still in there but we need to see how the velo/command looks in a full season. Stock is down a little with that uncertainty.
CC AFC
Toolshed shortstops with questionable hit tools comparison: who do you think is more likely to hit enough to be an everyday player between Jacob Lombard and Justin LeBron?
Brendan Gawlowski
LeBron, just betting on the athlete closer to maturity.
fincampbell05
What do you make of the concerns over Anthony Eyanson’s pitch shapes? His fastball sits 93-94 with, apparently, dead-zone movement, and he doesn’t seem to have an effective horizontally-moving pitch. Is his command enough to make up for this?
Brendan Gawlowski
The velo depends on when you caught him. On the year it averaged 94, pretty big fluctuations in where he sat. 18 IVB, 1 horizontal, high release. He could really use the arm strength, let's just say.
Brendan Gawlowski
The cutter gives him a (very slightly) E-W pitch and it played well last year, fwiw.
Brendan Gawlowski
I'm fine still projecting a no. 3 but he's one where a lot of analysis will be required in his T100 blurb to fully contextualize what we're dealing with.
cardsfan11642
Why is Jonny Farmelo #54 on the 100 but Tai Peete not somebody you're considering in the Top 100 per your last chat? Peete better exit velos, faster, higher defensive upside in CF, and K rates are now pretty much the same
Brendan Gawlowski
Partly the hit tool risk, mostly though it's because I just don't like the Cardinals and if I can find a way to subtly ding their players I'm going to take it.
Brendan Gawlowski
For the record, in last week's chat, I wrote: "He's the kind of player I'd project as a regular as a scout…" And that has been the case for years.
Brendan Gawlowski
I like Tai Peete. He's a risk/reward player with a lot of upside. He will be ranked ahead of some risk/reward players with upside and behind others.
CC AFC
If all of the position groups formed gangs and had a giant brawl, who would win? Catchers, right?
Brendan Gawlowski
Pitchers have a huge numerical advantage. I'd take them.
philly
What is the most likely thing to hold Henry Godbout from being a regular? Defense? Swing mechanics?
Brendan Gawlowski
Both are factors.
Alex Remington
Is John Gil a starting major league shorstop? How likely is it that he becomes 1) a cromulent first-division starter 2) an All-Star at some point in his career?
Brendan Gawlowski
Probably not; 30% or so; unlikely but not impossible.
thorboy85@gmail.com
How likely is it that we see Jesus Made be the starting 3B/SS on opening day next year?
Brendan Gawlowski
Between the good-not-great season at AA, how young he is, and the big-league options available, I think it's more likely than not that he starts in the minors. But that's just speculation.
R.B. Urgess
Can you expand more on Doyle's reliever risk? It looked like he turned a corner in the second half … is the toolkit just not enough to start in the majors?
Brendan Gawlowski
Body doesn't look great, lot of walks overall. I should be clear, I think he can start, and could be quite good in that role. But I see more relief risk with him than some of the arms in his orbit on the top 50.
Kevin Kelsey
Is it time to call Dasan hill a reliever or hope he can work out the walks?
Brendan Gawlowski
I would stay patient. May well be a reliever in the end but let's see this play out for a while first.
Brady Petree
Let's say Alfredo Sena signed tomorrow with ATL: Where would he slot in in terms of the top-100 list and the Braves system overall?
Brendan Gawlowski
He'd be a 45+, the rare guy I'd be going out of my way to see right from the jump in the DSL, and a potential T100 candidate on the same kind of timeline as Angeibel Gomez. I can't get behind 50'ing a teenager who hasn't played pro ball.
toshi
Hi, compared to teams like Rays and Brewers, what are the areas in which Mariners are weak, in terms of player acquisition and development? Thanks.
Brendan Gawlowski
Depth. They turn their big-bonus guys into dudes at a high rate and they've had a lot of success developing starting pitching. But the system is thin.
vottogoat
Do you think there’s a chance Nolan Perry could make it to the majors this year? What’s his long-term outlook?
Brendan Gawlowski
He'll have a 2027 ETA. In my mind that's more July/August than next spring, but who knows. Projects as a no. 4/5 type, could exceed if the fastball or his command are better than I'm projecting.
eandy
Any big reactions from the ROY voting?
Brendan Gawlowski
Patrick Dubuque has written persuasively about the ROY should go to the best guy, and that WAR shouldn't really be a factor in the same way it is with the Cy/MVP. I agree with that, and if, in that sense, you think Sal Stewart is THE GUY in this class, I think it's a defensible selection. Personally, I don't feel that way: I think he's a good player, he ranked highly for us and was graded appropriately in view, but I have the Mets guys and Weatherholt ahead of him. Maybe one or two others, it was a very strong class.
hambonehambone
If you were going to trade one of Franklin Arias or Jesus Made, which would you be willing to part with and what is the distinction that led to that decision?
Brendan Gawlowski
Wouldn't be in any rush to deal either of them. If someone offered the moon, sure, but that applies to both.
reyrh
When do you think players should be Rule V eligible, since it's coming up as a potential change?
Brendan Gawlowski
I have conflicting thoughts here. In general, I'm in favor of more player movement and anything that gets guys to FA earlier. On the other, I think the earlier you let guys get to R5, the more you're pushing pitchers into the pen. Practically speaking, teams are pretty reluctant to take players who aren't ready to help in some kind of way, so I don't think that eligibility changes would be all that impactful.
apeloton
Another post prospect question – what do you think bubba chandler’s outlook is after his rookie year? What changes does he need to make to improve it?
Brendan Gawlowski
Mid-rotation, no. 2 upside in play but fading a little bit. Build on the control gains he made in the second half. More experience going second- and third-time through will be helpful.
Phillip Denny
What are the chances Davalan actually sticks on the dirt?
Brendan Gawlowski
Pretty good, chance he's their next super utility guy.
wheelhouse
Doubling up on Kilby questions: rough ETA if he stays healthy unlike this year? 2028 or later?
Brendan Gawlowski
2028 is very reasonable.
Wexlerrules
Do you think Reimer still has a shot to start at 3b for a good team?
Brendan Gawlowski
A shot, yes. I'd personally take the under.
Tristan
What would prevent Cam Smith from becoming the next Jordan Walker?
Brendan Gawlowski
I'm not sure if you mean this as a good thing or a bad thing…
vottogoat
Do you think David Davalillo can get his control to the point he can start, or destined to the bullpen?
Brendan Gawlowski
Still projects as a starter. Control was much better in second AAA spin. Seems like he's one of those guys who needed a beat to adjust.
hambonehambone
Crystal Ball gets fired up and we see Kendry Chourio in 5 years. What current or former MLB starter does he most resemble?
Brendan Gawlowski
If it all breaks right, he's on the Sonny Gray path
markjd
I spent much of last year following Devin Taylor wondering if he was a guy that could hit his way to a higher projection, and then the last couple of weeks started to worry about a strikeout rate. Should I just go back to worrying about if he has a position?
Brendan Gawlowski
Too much worrying. Broad contours of this profile are pretty well set. Three true outcome hitter, fits at DH. We'll see if he gets to the power often enough to play everyday.
Phillip Denny
Feels like once the CBA is hashed out and the Vegas/TB stadiums are sorted, the league will be hurtling toward expansion. I've seen it floated that the expansion teams should be given a 2-3 year run up to build their farms before fielding a major league team. Practically speaking, how would that happen? Minor league expansion draft of some kind?
Brendan Gawlowski
This would/will all be very fun. I'd support some kind of window but the details — how many players/teams do they get? — are tricky. I'd think a minor league draft would be part of it.
Tristan
Ha! Funny re: Smith. I meant more in the spirit of — can Cam convert his underlying batted ball data and obvious athleticism into a potential offensive breakout? If not, what would appear to be in his way?
Brendan Gawlowski
It's in there, his approach is an impediment. And Walker having a stone-cold elite tool gave him a leg up on Smith, who has a lot of power, but not like JW.
Kevin Kelsey
Any chance Wilder Dalis starts the year in aa next season?
Brendan Gawlowski
Any chance? Sure. Rockies don't tend to push all that quickly though, I'd be surprised. I'd bet he gets to Hartford at some point, though.
Kevin Kelsey
What can we expect from cam cannarella next year? Enough juice for 10 15 with 15 swipes?
Brendan Gawlowski
I'm not sure he's going to hit for that much power. Lower launch guy — reasonably so, given his speed and approach — with maaaybe 40 raw? Tough HR park, too.
drplantwrench
neslon rada and raudi rodriguez have to be put on the 40 man for the angels, right? whats the over/under in games played for 2027?
Brendan Gawlowski
If it was a normal year, yes, locks to be added. If there's no R5 draft though…
barondionis
Do you expect Murf Gray to be on a similar trajectory as Esmerlyn Valdez? Such as starting the year in Triple-A after spending just a part of last season in Double-A. Valdez only 51 games to conclude 2025, Gray 45 games to conclude 2026. I feel like there could be some urgency with Pittsburgh's third base opening, but wanted to hear your thoughts on this front
Brendan Gawlowski
Sounds reasonable to me.
maximus74
assuming 500+ PA, what do you see JDP's season looks like next year?
Brendan Gawlowski
.274/.377/.449. Better but flawed defense, fair bit of DH'ing.
Patrick Burke
Been getting into LIDOM, who are the main prosects to watch in winter ball this year?
Brendan Gawlowski
Made's there… Roldy Brito, Leo Bernal, John Gil, Jefferson Rojas… Emil Morales is on Gigantes but doesn't seem to be playing much… Justin Gonzales same thing. For obvious reasons, it's a lot lighter on the pitching side.
GarageCat
Circling back around from a "because you asked" last month, who do you think has the highest upside between Cards middle infielders Yairo Padilla, Miguel Hernández, and Sebastian Dos Santos?
Brendan Gawlowski
Miguel scares me a little but he could also be pretty freaky. That bat could get very, very fast.
Michael
I think the minor league ball used last year is too new for scouts to correct it like they have the PCL over the years. will we be surprised when a pitcher was overlooked in 2026.
Brendan Gawlowski
I'd push back a little, we were all over the different ball in the first week of the season. How to handle it is more art than science, and one assumption I've made is that the command/control guys who really got whacked were exposed as not having enough stuff to thrive against good competition… but it's possible that that reasoning is flawed.
Definitely Not an AI Bot
If you were Chaim Bloom, how would you deploy the Cardinals' oddly deep catching pool? Is Bernal the C and RR heading to a corner?
Brendan Gawlowski
Treat it as a great problem to have, find the right balance between keeping guys fresh and running with the hot hand until you've got clarity.
Definitely Not an AI Bot
Would you change anything about the R5 draft? Seems like it hits about the right line overall but some teams really get pinched certain years.
Brendan Gawlowski
It's weird. The purposes of the R5 are to give blocked players a second path to the big leagues and to prevent orgs from hoarding talent. It doesn't do either of those things very well, imo. Instead of a draft, I think I'd rather have a shorter path to minor league free agency.
Gerry McDonald
How many Blue Jays catchers are you rating? Like the Cards they have a lot of guys who could be something.
Brendan Gawlowski
Four on the main section, counting Sprock. A bunch on the HM section, including Parker who was a late cut (and who might also not be a catcher).
DunkinDonut
Hi Brendan, are you and Eric keeping the same list split this year? Any chance you'll get to the Red Sox sooner?
Brendan Gawlowski
Won't be exactly the same, and we have to account for Mr. Fegan's lists, too. Sox will go fairly early.
jwise224
Billy Carlson had an injury-shortened season in A-ball. Any change to his stock overall? Or is this a "run it back and reevaluate after more performance" situations?
Brendan Gawlowski
I'm a little concerned about the lack of game power…
rgoule
Besides De Paula, who do you see as next Dodger prospect to force his way into conversation?
Brendan Gawlowski
Sirota, but it might be a trade conversation. His tracking skills scare me a little bit and there's no room to DH.
Definitely Not an AI Bot
Honest feedback: I love the deep cut of the lists but I'd rather have my team's top 25 in April than go 60-deep in June.
Brendan Gawlowski
I suspect you're not alone. Trying to do both this year.
Brendan Gawlowski
Okay folks, thanks as always for the questions. I've gotta run and shore up the Jays and hopefully track down a couple sources on other lists. We'll do it again next week.
One story ends, another begins. The Milwaukee Brewers have hoisted the 2026 World Series trophy and earned an offseason of rest, but for the ZiPS projection system, there is no winter respite. The 2027 season is (hopefully) just around the corner, and as has been the case every year going back to 2005, it’s time to start rolling out projections.
For those new to my projections, ZiPS is a computer projection system I initially developed in 2002–04. It was officially released to the public in 2005, after it had reached a level of non-craptitude I was content with. The origins of ZiPS are similar to Tom Tango’s Marcel the Monkey, coming out of discussions I had in the late 1990s with Chris Dial, one of my best friends (our first interaction involved Chris calling me an expletive!) and a fellow stat nerd. ZiPS quickly evolved from its original version as a reasonably simple projection system, and now it both does a lot more and uses a lot more data than I ever envisioned it would 20 years ago. At its core, however, it’s still engaged in two primary tasks: estimating what the baseline expectation for a player is at the moment I hit the button, and then estimating what that player might do in the future using large cohorts of relatively similar players.
So why is ZiPS named ZiPS? At the time, Voros McCracken’s theories on how pitching, defense, and balls in play interact were fairly new, and since I wanted to integrate some of his findings, I decided (with his blessing) that the name of my system should rhyme with DIPS (defense-independent pitching statistics). I didn’t like SIPS, so I went with the next letter in my last name. I originally named my work ZiPs as a nod to CHiPs, one of my favorite shows to watch as a kid, but I mis-typed ZiPs as ZiPS when I released the projections publicly, and since my now-colleague Jay Jaffe had already reported on ZiPS for his Futility Infielder blog, I chose to just go with it. I never expected that all of this would be useful to anyone but me; if I had, I would have named it in less bizarre fashion. Read the rest of this entry »
As awards season bores its way on to the baseball offseason calendar, we thought we’d take a moment to spotlight some guys who won’t get any of the love in those categories but had tremendous seasons nonetheless.
The following five players all found major success in 2026 by improving some specific part of their game, but their numbers didn’t jump off the page enough to make them an All-Star or a finalist for any major hardware. As such, we have a quintet of players who each finished the most recent campaign with less than 3.0 WAR, but were worth your attention all year, and stand to be even more enticing moving forward. Read the rest of this entry »
Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to my first chat of the offseason. Last week I had my parents in town and the site was mostly dark for election day, so we hit the Jackson Pollock/Lee Krasner exhibit at the Metropolitan Museum of Art — I can't recommend it enough!
Jay Jaffe
Last week also marked the announcement of the 2027 Contemporary Baseball Managers/Umpires/Executives Era Committee ballot, for which I gave the overview here:
It's the most stacked ballot, I think, since the change to the 8-candidate, 3-vote format in 2023, and at some point it might rival the 2022 ones in terms of future Hall of Famers.
Since then, I've run profiles of Lou Piniella, Bill White, and yesterday Joe Maddon (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2027-contemporary-baseball-era-c…). I'm deep into researching and writing up Dusty Baker for the next one. What a fascianting career and life!
Philip Christy
Did you get an awards vote this year?
Jay Jaffe
It's awards season, but no, I don't have a vote. As I'm in the New York chapter, it's not hard to find enough voters for the various awards, but in smaller markets, my FanGraphs colleagues do get to vote. I know Meg Rowley was among those who voted for the NL Rookie of the Year last night; she had Carson Benge and JJ Wetherholt and Nolan MacLean ahead of Sal Stewart, who won. I would have done the same — I think I had them here in that order awhile back, and some took umbrage at my not elevating Stewart with his big RBI total over them. Jeff Zimmerman voted for Kevin McGonigle in the AL ROY vote, which is whom I'd have chosen. https://bbwaa.com/26-nl-roy/
I expect Dan Szymborski has a vote somewhere in here, and there may be others.
RMD4
Wouldn't they be better off releasing all award winners within a couple days of the World Series being over? Probably get more eyes and ears that way…
Jay Jaffe
Are you kidding? It's a very dead spot on the baseball calendar, and MLB, MLB Network, and the BBWAA are happy to provide four evenings of programming.
Mike Z
PCA was best player in NL by 4 FWAR and led Cubs to playoffs – should anyone who uses a first place MVP for someone else have their voting privileges revoked?
Jay Jaffe
Eh, I know that sentiments like that are often played for laughs or outrage, and I'm not above that flavor of hyperbole once in awhile, but the point of a vote, rather than a statistical system or an award for leading the league in WAR is to let human judgment into the equation. You can't give people an opening for subjective decisions — especially when it comes to the very vaguely defined "value" — and then demand they all see things the same way OR ELSE.
That said, I do expect PCA to be a unanimous choice given his late-season surge and Ohtani's collapse.
drplantwrench
any memories or stories about the recently deceased Bob Boone?
Jay Jaffe
I'm pretty sure Boone was among the players in the first two packs of baseball cards my mom bought me, the Topps 1978 set. My younger brother and I pored over those cards and tried to pay the game on the back (each card had a batter outcome — single, double, triple, home run, strikeout, etc). I still remember most of those cards because visual memory is a superpower i inherited from my paternal grandmother. Kent Tekulve, Manny Sanguillen, Billy Martin, and Rob Picciolo were some of the ones in that subset; later I went back and completed the set.
Jay Jaffe
Boone, of course, was a staple of the Phillies, who made the playoffs five times from 1976-81, and so I saw a lot of him on TV during those postseasons against the Dodgers and when the Phillies won it all in 1980. He was a good glove man and handler of pitchers, and at his peak he could hit reasonably well. He lasted forever at catcher, so long that when he retired he held the record for games caught before Carlton Fisk and Ivan Rodriguez (Pudge and Pudge) surpassed him. And of course he was the middle man in a 3-generation dynasty, the son of Ray and father of Aaron and Bret. A pretty full baseball life. RIP
crew87
some articles' videos are auto-playing with sound (I'm a logged in member)– the cooper pratt article was one. Can you run it up the flagpole to see if that can be addressed? It's a real problem when I'm trying to read fangraphs while coasting through zoom calls!
Jay Jaffe
Hmm. I'll pass that along. I've never seen a setting to autoplay when I embed videos, so I'd check your browser preferences
Jonathan Adelman
Do you think any Negro League players are high-probability inductees the next time they're eligible?
Jay Jaffe
I wouldn't hold my breath. Both Vic Harris and John Donaldson made pretty solid showings on the 10-man ballot that elected Buck O'Neil and Bud Fowler on the 2022 Early Baseball ballot, for which the candidates' main contributions happened prior to 1950, but both received five or fewer votes on the 2025 Classic ballot for those whose main contributions happened before 1980. Unless and until the Hall makes it easier to consider those players in a context more reflective of their era, it's going to be hard to get any of them elected even with the explosion of research (and MLB's belated recognition of their leagues as major) in that area.
Marc Kartman
Bobby Grich and Lou Whitaker are, I believe, generally considered the two best second basemen not in the HOF. When (if ever) do you think they will be considered again and what are their chances of ever being elected?
Jay Jaffe
I'm hopeful Whitaker will be on the 2028 Classic ballot a year from now. Ideally Grich as well, but so many candidates from that era have been endlessly recycled that they've crowded him out, and the new rule about eligibility on the next ballot, double-edge sword though it is, doesn't officially apply to the 2025 vote.
Baseball Learner
How do you feel about Sal Stewart winning will lesser advanced stats. There is a part of me that thinks that awards like ROY aren't strictly about "value" and that having fan palatable statistics and the excitement of legit slug from a rookie should count a little extra. Do you agree?
Jay Jaffe
Particularly for ROY, I don't think one has to go strictly by the numbers because some key rookies often aren't in the majors at the start of the season, though the PPI system has changed that equation somewhat. I get why Stewart is popular but man, I'm never gonna wave the pompoms for the RBI guy winning out when we have better measures. Benge going 20-20 with excellent defense should be every bit as exciting to a ball-knowing fan as Stewart driving in runs.
drplantwrench
what do you think luis robert jr will be like next year?
Jay Jaffe
I hope he's healthy and productive but the dude has averaged 90 games, an 87 wRC+, and 0.8 WAR in the past three seasons so I'm not exactly optimistic.
war2d2
Jay! Great wrote up about Joe Maddon, even though as a Cubs fan I personally don’t see Maddon’s case for the Hall. My unpopular opinion (at least among Cubs fans) is that if Theo had hired Francona instead of Maddon and signed Scherzer instead of Lester they’d have won more than one ring. My personal feeling is that he ranks somewhere behind both Gaston and Johnson, and they both have better resumés. No real question, just appreciated your writeup!
Jay Jaffe
Thanks for the kind words. I see Francona as a stronger case for the Hall than Maddon but not necessarily the more interesting and innovative manager. Maybe you're right about how things would have played out on the alternate scenario you've suggested but what strikes me is how abruptly Maddon's tenure ended in Chicago. I think it was Ricketts (and Theo) being wary of long-term investments in players and I'm not sure Francona wold have fared better.
Jay Jaffe
I would put Johnson ahead of Maddon in the short career/innovative and influential/1 World Series win batch even before considering Johnson's solid major league playing career.
MuadDib
Hi Jay, I have long agreed with you that pre-testing = Wild West, but a positive test is a DQ. But I've recently changed on Manny and A-Rod, and I'm wondering if I can pull you over too. My re-frame was due to a hypothetical: what if Mike Trout tested positive today? His career until now has been transcendent, and, critically, verifiably clean. As such, he'd still get my vote. I respect that you may disagree… but if you could see yourself bending here, then I think A-Rod and Manny deserve the same. They had late positives but in their cases, I think people see those positives and extrapolate to assume they were using pre-testing as well. And though probably true, I think we should push back. It's to their detriment, not their benefit, that they played in an era when MLB catastrophically failed to both police and protect their players. And as such they deserve to be treated as innocent up to those tests. If a Trout candidacy could (maybe) survive a late positive, so too should theirs.
Jay Jaffe
The problem with what you're suggesting is that even before Manny and A-Rod were suspended for violating a policy of which they had to be aware, both were reported as having failed the 2003 survey test. Yes, that was supposed to be anonymous, and in my ballot deliberations I haven't used that as disqualifying (e.g., I voted for Ortiz and Sosa), but that was because neither of those two guys were shown to have violated the post-testing rules.
Jay Jaffe
The fact that Manny and A-Rod illustrated their lack of common sense in other ways in public doesnn't help their cause either. I don't see myself flipping for either of them.
Jonathan Adelman
I'm curious – would you say your personal list of "why aren't these guys in the Hall??" players matches what JaWS has to say?
Jay Jaffe
My "want" list isn't in order of JAWS — we know why Bonds and Clemens aren't in the Hall even apart from what the numbers say. The numbers are great, and I'd prefer they were in the Hall, but if I had to choose Bonds or a criminally overlooked guy like Whitaker for wom my metric brings things into focus I'd choose the latter.
What's more a lot of the guys on my want list are eithe Negro Leagues/pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball candidates or nonplayers , so we can't go by JAWS there either.
Kevin Downe
Hi Jay! Any insight into why the BBHOF is really the MLB (with a smattering of Negro Leagues) HOF? As an ice hockey fan, “it’s the HOCKEY hall of fame, not the NHL hall of fame” is often used as justification for electing a player who excelled in the KHL as well as the NHL, for instance. Why is this not the case in baseball? Is it just the bare fact that it was originally such a one country sport, or has the hall explicitly addressed this question?
Jay Jaffe
it's the *National* Baseball Hall of Fame, which meant USA when it was established in 1936 and has been expanded to include Canada because it's part of MLB; put an MLB team in Mexico City and those players would be eligible too. Membership is voted upon by American and Canadian writers who had the most exposure to those players, whereas they didn't get to see or cover players in Japan, Cuba, etc.
daml91
Are we going to be waiting a while on Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe despite their reinstatement? I just don't see how a process that has been so unfriendly to Bonds and Clemens comes close to electing those two.
Jay Jaffeedited
I don't like the newish "two strikes" rule but I'm hopeful that if either Rose or Jackson is on the next Classic ballot that they'll be rejected so resoundingly (5 votes or fewer) that they'd be ineligible for a 2031 ballot, and then if that were to happen a second time, they'd be "permanently" ineligible.
I'd be surprised if the two-strikes system gets that far. Some great manager or Negro Leagues legend is going to slip through the cracks and the blowback of ruling them out permanently won't be great for the Hall.
dodgerdog
Do you agree with the HOF’s decision to put Joe Maddon on a ballot before Mike Scioscia? Scioscia had 268 more wins, a higher winning percentage and more division titles. He also managed the same team for 19 years and was never fired. The Angels have been around for 66 seasons and Scioscia is their lone WS manager. And FWIW, his 2002 Angels were just the second team ever to win a WS without any players to ever make the HOF, win a league MVP or Cy Young award.
Jay Jaffe
The decision on who gos on the ballot is made by the 11-member Historical Overview Committee, not the Hall itself., and it's possible Scioscia narrowly missed inclusion. That he won just one pennant while Maddon won two might have been the separator. Of course, down the road this could work out to Scioscia's advantage given the possibility that Baker and Bochy get in, but then again, Francona is going to be a strong candidate at some point down the road.
war2d2
I realize I’m way too into the weeds on why the 2016 Cubs became the MLB equivalent of the 1985 Bears, but it seemed at the time that as early as 2018 Maddon had completely lost the clubhouse, and they needed to be quicker to change gears. I agree that the Ricketts’s inability or disinterest in investing in the team played a larger role, but at the time there were a lot of complaints coming out from “unnamed players” in local media about a lack of professionalism and commitment to winning. I realize he runs some people the wrong way but Willson Contreras was the only one willing to go on record saying as much at the time.
Jay Jaffe
There's probably some truth to what you're saying. I did note in the Maddon piece that the sentiment that he had become less hands-on with and accessible to players was conveyed to him by Theo in the 2018–19 offseason. Maybe it was too late by then
Jay Jaffe
I just pulled up our new-ish Projected Standings archive, which shows that the Cubs were 7 wins below their Pythag and 5 below their BaseRuns projected records. We tend to credit managers for teams that outperform those things — sequencing is kind of random, but bullpen usage can reflect the manager's touch — so it makes sense that we at least note when they underpeform.
MuadDib
I guess where I disagree with considering the survey test (even if only done in situations where it's part of a larger body of evidence in combination with a later positive test) is that what I'm saying is that I don't even *care* if they were using pre-testing. Yes, given their lack of common sense and all the circumstantial evidence they were almost certainly using all along. But to me, that makes them victims, not perpetrators. I'm not saying that their careers to that point *were* clean, just that any guilt during that time should be placed so squarely on MLB that we might as well think of them that way.
Perhaps chat isn't the right forum for this though, there's so much to say. So let me also say that I 100% appreciate and believe your approach is the right one, and wish other voters were able to take such a logical, measured stance. You are fighting the right fight! I just wonder (and don't necessarily have an answer for) whether there's room for those two in that fight as well.
Jay Jaffe
Thanks. I can't say I don't *care* about guys using in the pre-testing era, just that I've tried to separate rumor (the bogus "positives list" that circulated back in those days) from reported information, and the leaks do place those guys in a separate category.
Mostly, though, it all sucks and I'm goad I don't have to expend as much energy thinking about this as I did 5-10 years ago.
Eshan Mehere
are jim edmonds or kenny lofton more likely to get in given beltran/jones
Jay Jaffe
Yeah I think their elections help both players' causes. I suspect we'll see Lofton on the next ballot, maybe Edmonds at some point too as the two-strike rule at least stimulates some churn among the candidates.
Phillip Denny
In Michael Baumann's article today on Morejon, he advocates for bringing back the 1970's style relief ace. As for me, I'll take any opportunity to work 1974 Mike Marshall into a conversation. For you though, do you think that multiple/consecutive 100+ IP innings from a reliever will ever be sustainable?
Jay Jaffe
Given how hard most elite relievers are throwing these days I suspect 100+ innings isn't a sustainable model. Pull up a list of 90+ inning relievers in the Statcat era and the top two entries are for Ryan Yarbrough (2018 and '24), he of the opener/bulk framework and the sub-88 fastball.
Jay Jaffe
In fact, a look at the top 10 shows there's only 2 guys whose four-seamers averaged 95 or higher, AJ Blubaugh in 2026 (96 IP, 95.8 mph) — we don't know if he can follow that up — and Derek Law in 2024 (90 IP, 95.1 mph), 9 innings in 2 seasons since due to arm problems.
How much did 2026 ding Skene's potential HOF narrative?
Jay Jaffe
I wouldn't suggest that any active starting pitcher 3 years into his career be subjected to a Hall of Fame narrative. Let's see if he's still pitching at a high level when he's 30.
ajleff
Soto or Lindor higher HOF odds?
Jay Jaffe
Lindor because he's already close to the JAWS standard and playing a skill position that helps him accrue value even when his bat isn't great.
ajleff
Skubal prediction (team and basic structure)?
Jay Jaffe
Mets. With an opt-out somewhere early.
drplantwrench
what are your thoughts on team expansion? i feel like diluting the talent pool should be treated very very carefully
Jay Jaffe
We've gone longer since the last round of expansion than we did at any time between 1961 and '98. The player pool has enlarged greatly in that time through US population growth and the influx of elite Asian players. Remember, prior to Ichiro's 2001 arrival, no Japanese position player had even come over.
Phillip Denny
Coming back to NL ROY – why did TJ Rumfield get screwed so hard? Objectively he was the best hitting NL rookie with 500+ PA, and you can't hand waive it as Coors effect because he actually had a higher wRC+ on the road (132) than at Coors (116). Simple as HR go brrrr or….?
Jay Jaffe
I wouldn't go so far as to call it a perfect storm but: 1B with non-traditional offensive profile, added value from defense that could be ignored if only focusing on triple crown stats, anti-Coors Field bias, and the ease of ignoring the Rockies due to their perennial loserdom. Tough break.
ajleff
Skubal: 8/$320m with opt-outs after years 3 and 6? Trades overall length for opt outs.
Jay Jaffe
I'd guess he either tops Yamamoto's $325 million or Scherzer/Verlander's $43.3 million AAV for the purposes of bragging rights. not sure about where the opt-outs would be but one after year two or three makes sense.
Jay Jaffe
OK folks, I gotta see a man about a toothpick so it's time to wrap this up. Thanks so much for stopping by, and have a great week!
At least nine times during the 2026 season, a replay review overturned a hit-by-pitch. It may well have happened more often, but I found nine pitches that went down as foul balls because the umpire awarded the batter first base after an apparent hit-by-pitch, only for the defending team to successfully challenge that the ball hit the bat instead. Once every two or three weeks, a batter grabbed his hand and exclaimed, “Ye gods, I’ve been struck!”
Only for the catcher to arise and reply, “I’ll prove the contrary, thou subtle, perjured, false, disloyal man! Thy club’s the thing withstood th’ offending sphere.”
At which point the Mattress Firm Supermo replay intoned with just the right level of firmness, “Forsooth, this catcher is the messenger of truth.”
And the umpire had no choice but to swallow his pride and announce to the fans, “Lo, through the proof of the Mattress Firm Supermo replay I see how I’m hoodwink’d. Behold my fingers three.”
These may not be exact quotes, but you get the point. It’s not particularly rare for a hit-by-pitch to get overturned. However, during the 2026 season, I was hoping that we’d see one particular variety of hit-by-pitch get overturned. It is my favorite kind of hit-by-pitch, which I now realize seems like a weird thing to say. To be clear, I’m not in favor of people getting hit by pitches. However, as long as people are getting hit by pitches, I prefer for it to happen in a way that doesn’t involve injuries but instead involves some element of silliness. For example, this ball that hit Joey Votto in 2022 has a lot going for it. The first is the eloquence with which Votto expressed his feelings about getting hit, so please turn your volume up. Read the rest of this entry »
I think they’re out of their minds. Me? I would’ve had Morejon no lower than fifth in this caffeine free Diet Pepsi of a free agent class, perhaps as high as third. I’d give Morejon $100 million over five years without blinking.
I don’t get the sense that I’m sticking my neck out too far by saying this; someone’s going to pay over the odds for this non-closer reliever because they think they can translate his upper-90s velocity and elite groundball rate to the rotation. Morejon got four or more outs in 25 of his 78 regular-season appearances in 2026, and he has the elite changeup that conventional wisdom requires from a lefty starter.
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about who started the “Nerds!” chant at the Brewers championship parade and a pair of POBOs who appear to be sneaky-jacked, plus the Mariners’ new manager, MLB’s cap quasi-concession, and whether an MLB player will issue a Wemby-esque statement about not sponsoring certain products. Then (54:14) they conduct the 12th annual free agent contract over/under draft.
Even though the offseason has technically begun, we’re currently in the lull between the end of the World Series and the real start of hot stove season. Teams are just about done with the annual housekeeping necessary to prepare their rosters for the winter, but the big moves are still on the horizon and the owner’s lockout is looming. That means it’s as good a time as any to take stock of how each team measures up.
The rankings below present each team as they are currently constructed, based on our Depth Charts playing time projections. This should give us a pretty good idea of which teams would be ready to compete if the 2027 season started today, and which teams have a lot of work ahead of them this offseason. I’ll start with teams projected to finish below .500, and then will have the top half of the rankings later this week.
Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. For these offseason rankings, I’ve pulled the Depth Charts projections and calculated an implied Elo ranking for each team. Our projections are entirely powered by the 2027 Steamer projections right now; the ZiPS projections will be added later on in the offseason. The delta column in the full rankings below shows the change in ranking from the final regular season run of the power rankings.
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