Hi from the kitchen island in cloudy Tempe, where the FanGraphs Meteorology Team is monitoring the storm cell that just passed over ASU Spring Break mainstay, Rocky Point.
Eric Longenhagen
I'm gonna hang out here for an hour and then re-evaluate the forecast. If things look dicey for our first AFL semifinal game of the day, I'll hang out a bit longer.
Congrats on starting the 2027 prospect cycle! Anything new that you're excited about for these updates?
Eric Longenhagen
Yeah, I think you might see aspects of the format evolve during this cycle. I just think things like the System Overview need a fresh coat of paint. I'm working on Yankees now. I'm excited to go do minor league ST in Florida next year. Usually, MLB Spring Training is prohibitive for FL travel because it's super expensive and crowded. WHy do that when I can stay home for the AZ version. But with Minor League ST essentially immune from the labor strife, getting over there earlier than April/May (which is usually when I go, for the time period when Extended and FSL stuff are going simultaneously) will give us a deeper look at the full season affiliates there.
Eric Longenhagen
Plus, February/March is better for HS scouting in FL than April/May.
Charles Bengal Tiger
Dynasty draft coming up soon and I need a big stick that will provide middle of the order impact down the road. Would either of Taitn Gray or Murf Gray be my man?
Eric Longenhagen
I feel better about Taitn's plate discipline and hit tool.
Definitely Not an AI Bot
How are the minors going to work during the lockout? I think I read that anyone on a 40-man can't play? How is this going to affect team strategy and overall player dev next year?
Eric Longenhagen
It might depend on how teams are informed of Rule 5 Draft changes/cancellations, but if we assume no Rule 5 Draft (which is what happened in '21) then the number of players who'll be new 40-man additions will be low, and the impact will be minimal. The players who'll be impacted are the ones who were put on the 40-man late enough in 2026 that they remain prospect-eligible. Which you can basically see a list of in the right margin here: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects
Eric Longenhagen
I think a shorter season might end up being good for pitchers' late-season stuff, everyone's work load will be a little bit lighter.
Eric Longenhagen
Teams might try to sneak remote dev programs in for some of the pitchers, or launder them through the third party facilities' people. I would.
ED44
I seem to recall you were pretty high on Serwinowski? Still see him as a starter? Thanks!
Eric Longenhagen
I did and do like him a lot. The chances of his starting are dwindling, but I think his floor is a really, really nasty lefty reliever, and I value him as if he were a BJ Ryan, Sean Doolittle type of guy who is a setup man/closer type.
Charles Bengal Tiger
Wandy Asigen didn't play a lot this season. Does he still project as a "for sure" shortstop? Is he likely to keep his 45+?
Eric Longenhagen
Not a "lock", still so young. On tape, lokay enough to keep developing there, but not great right now.
nicklocarno
No longer a prospect, but have you got thoughts on Triston Casas moving forward?
Eric Longenhagen
I thought he was going to have such big lefty power that the swing and miss, on balance, would be palatable. I saw that Breslow said something like Casas "might" get winter league at-bats. How is that not something you know will happen or not at this stage of the schedule? Why isn't he here in AZ crushing guys and providing some notion of how he looks to inform whether he needs a winter league assignment or not? Is he not healthy yet? I'd assess how he looks when he actually plays before offering an updated opinion, he's in flux.
jimmysharkey35
What is the latest update on Aidan Miller's health and ETA for 2027?
Eric Longenhagen
He's healthy and has been playing in Arizona, where he's walked a ton and has not hit for much power.
Eric Longenhagen
The state of the league at 3B has dipped substantially as Arenado, Machado, Chapman, etc. have aged, and as Devers has moved to 1B, and Ramirez had a down year. Here's the year-by-year, league-wide offensive performance at 3B the last while… https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=…
Eric Longenhagen
I think Miller will do enough to profile as an average everyday option, but I'd rather have Maikel Garcia, or Miguel Vargas, McGongile, Josh Jung, and I'd guess at least a couple of the old guys either bounce back or sustain (like Muncy has) enough to be a better producer there, too.
Cromulent
Curious how Made, Morales, Brito, Level and others ended up in winter ball rather than Arizona Fall League. Any insight on how teams decide?
Eric Longenhagen
I think the pitching in those leagues is more challenging than the AFL.
Eric Longenhagen
And the environment is more tense and lively.
Charles Bengal Tiger
He's post-prospect now, but do you think Zac Thornton will be in the rotation full time for the Mets this coming season?
Eric Longenhagen
In a universe where most of their guys are healthy, I bet he's up and down.
StuShea
Hello. Thanks for chatting. Anyone who has knocked your socks off so far?
Eric Longenhagen
Lena, the 42-year-old reiki healer in Sarasota.
jdbolick
While command was always a weakness for Luis Morales, did you ever hear an explanation for why he completely lost the ability to throw strikes last season?
Eric Longenhagen
When it's that bad, I don't think there's an autopsy you can do perform to identify some lone, definable cause.
liljebbie10
After his first season in the majors, has your opinion changed at all on Konnor Griffin? Or do you still see him as a future superstar?
Eric Longenhagen
The 20-year-old who just posted a league-average batting line? He's good, chatter. Give it a second.
Eric Longenhagen
"Would you give it a second? It's gotta go to space."
I love Santiago Suarez. He is a pitcher that throws a ton of strikes but his arsenal is seemingly slow to develop. Do you feel that he'd stick on a big league roster if taken in the Rule 5 draft?
Eric Longenhagen
Tampa really only has guys in the minors throw two pitches. Like an overwhelming majority of their prospects are two pitch guys, there's barely a hint of a third let alone serious usage of it. I think it's more to do with org dev style than Suarez himself. I think he'd stick in a relief role, yeah. It's tough for a guy like him to stick in a *rotation* all year without being optioned, though, and so you're kinda goofing his development some to deploy him, say, like the Jays masterfulluy deployed Spencer Miles this year.
drplantwrench
also do the saguaros have the best hats in the AFL?
Eric Longenhagen
AFL Hat Pref List and Grades:
Surprise (70) – Kelly green brim, the cactus is wearing a bandana, awesome
Glendale (60)- Orange brim, cool idea but coyote silhouette isn't drawn well
Scottsdale (50)- Red/black scorpion, average in every way
Salt River (45)- Love the brim color, miss the old logo. The new one looks like a toothpaste brand
Peoria (40)- Grey and lime green just doesn't play, best team name tho
Mesa (30)- I think the logo is way too big
riibett
Brendan mentioned the Braves list is due up next, who is "your guy" in that system?
Eric Longenhagen
Sears, Carey, Sinnard
Neil Baumgarten
Hey Eric – Great work at FPAZ last week. I got to see Tate Southisene a few times. I know you have been (correctly) critical of his defense in the past. I think you were easy on him. Will he be the major league's first mini-sized DH? Thanks!
Eric Longenhagen
TY, I'm comfortable speaking in front of however many people but less so individually afterward for whatever reason. 70 runner, try CF proactively, please.
Petey Bienel
Any new thoughts on Bazzell's defense after his AFL? Really started with a poor caught stealing performances. Is that just a quirk of the AFL (runners being very good, not being comfortable with pitchers, etc…)?
Eric Longenhagen
Throwing well for me, receiving and block not so much. Pitchers here are mostly 1.70 to the plate, the CS stuff isn't his fault.
Phil
Is it reasonable to conclude that A, the Red Sox will only trade Arias for a shortstop, and B, they don't have enough top guys left for a splashy deal that doesn't involve Arias? (Meaning C, unless they trade for a top shortstop, they're mostly looking at free agency and getting their current guys healthy to improve.)
Eric Longenhagen
That's probably too narrow. They have enough depth that they can make a big deal, still. It might limit their partners to teams who seem to prioritize depth in their returns, like Miami or Baltimore seem to. There are enough lemons with a good data point or two in that system who you can trick Miami's formula into thinking might be good.
Assuming Seaver King comes up in 2027, would you anticipate he would play at SS with Abrams at 2B (assuming Abrams consents)?
Eric Longenhagen
On my looks Seaver has had some pretty severe throwing accuracy issues, he's a guy who I'll wipe the chalkboard clean for this offseason. As I'm sitting here I'd expect him to be up mid-year only if a) the team is playing well enough to feel like they're in the playoff mix AND b) Seaver doesn't regress. Otherwise he's a Sept add.
apeloton
Post prospect question – if you were evaluating Roman Anthony today, where would he land? How much if at all would the nagging hand/wrist issues be a factor in that?
Eric Longenhagen
Same grade: 60
nicklocarno
So, since MLB players are apparently allowed to play in foreign and/or indie leagues during a lockout… who would you most want to see suit up for the Savanna Bananas?
Does Zion Rose have the speed and the power to comp to Carl Crawford in leftfield?
Eric Longenhagen
Nah
Eric Longenhagen
Crawford was a 1 of 1 type guy, skills-wise and swing-wise most alike to Kenny Lofton. Zion is a nice player but he's not *that* talented, K-Lo/Crawford had multiple 5-7 WAR seasons
R.B. Urgess
How concerned are you about Edward Florentino's lower contact rates after promotion?
Eric Longenhagen
Not any more than we were before, the whiffing was always happening. Greensboro is a spot folks need to learn to take offense with a grain of salt. Big time lift/launch prospect who K's a ton is Florentino, there was an initial overreaction to his breakout I think.
rosineater
Emmanuel Rodriguez. I have no idea what to make of this guy. Is the top-100 prospect still in there or are we looking at a 4th OF at this point?
Eric Longenhagen
He could have a season or two like James Outman's rookie year, and then several seasons like Outman's sophomore season and beyond
Charles Bengal Tiger
Does Braylon Doughty have the upside of the guys like Messick, Williams, etc. who have graduated from the Guardians pitching development machine?
Eric Longenhagen
Not Williams', maybe Messick's (to be clear, what I think Messick's overall output will be , which I don't think will be prorated '26).
Michael
Tony Blanco Jr upside Giancarlo Stanton or can he fake it in the field? Who's you best case comp?
Eric Longenhagen
When Stanton was Blanco's age, he had 85 career big league home runs and halfway through his second consecutive 35-homer season. Blanco has played 80 games above low-A. Blanco's future is probably more like Chris Carter's.
Charles Bengal Tiger
Is there a verdict yet for the Charles Davalan infield experiment?
In a previous chat you said you liked the Tigers' draft, specifically mentioning a "kid from AZ who throws 100 and was kept pretty well hidden". Is that KJ Ward? And is he, like, a good arm strength RP flier, or is there more there?
Eric Longenhagen
Yes. Probably a RP but let's see. Gorgeous arm action, up to 100, sitting 98. Got in way better shape from '23 to '25 and '26
Anonymous Member #46
Speaking of knocking off socks, any prospects of note out there still rocking stirrups?
Eric Longenhagen
I haven't seen anyone wearing the Wimberlys
Toby Keith Whitley
I read an excerpt re: Joniel Hernandez, essentially downplaying some of his DSL performance because he was signed out of Cuba, suggesting he was more advanced for an age because of the Cuban background. Do the int'l kids signed out to Cuba tend to have more experience seeing high level velo and spin? I would have assumed the kids in the DR and VZ are seeing every bit as good talent.
Eric Longenhagen
More than anything I think Joniel crushed the DSL because he has ridiculous bat speed.
InsertWittyNameHere
If you had to continue your work during the lockout, which league would you want to do instead of MLB? NPB, KBO, LIDOM, MLB The Show, Little League?
Eric Longenhagen
I still have to continue working, for the record.
Eric Longenhagen
Send me to Japan. DR no. 2, little league last.
BKhipsterball
Did you read about the MLBPA's so-called nuclear option? What are your thoughts?
Eric Longenhagen
Decertification is not uncommon. Tough to file antitrust when the justice department is overtly sympathetic to the owners, might have to wait until that changes a bit early '27. I wouldn't decert unless that had already happened. I'd want it to feel actually threatening. Right now it doesn't.
ethanlowe
assume everyone in your current top 10 has graduated by this time next year (won't be the case, i know, but rock with me here), who do you think are some of the most likely prospects to have vaulted into those slots?
Not well, intro'd through JGrey and the first pitch crew. Nice guy who people loved.
grandbranyan
Cam Wagoner (35.1 K% and 58 FIP- coming off two missed seasons), Jose Meneses (31.4 K% and 63 FIP- plus an AFL nod as a 21yo), and Braylon Owens (29.9 K% and 73 FIP- as a 10K sign) going to be getting some digital ink on the Brewer list?
Eric Longenhagen
Yes, Laurila turned me on to Wagoner. He's good.
Sonny L
What orgs have proven the best abilities to help prospects like Rainer fight their contact issues? He’ll never win a batting title, but if he was with org X you’d arrow up on reaching a useable baseline.
Eric Longenhagen
LA. See: Harlan, Chase.
higginsford
Bauers to Boston…maybe that's why Breslow gave a weird answer on Casas? But regardless, will be interesting to see how Bauers' games by position ends up next year. Think he or Contreras log more games at DH?
Eric Longenhagen
Oh shit, really? Hold please…
Eric Longenhagen
OKay yeah, gotta showcase Casas now.
Nils
Who are some prospects that could improve their stock the most by spending the offseason in the weight room?
Are there any plans to pivot content during the lockout? Similar to how COVID content looked with the daily prospect notes video series?
Eric Longenhagen
I bet the other writers will have to drum up more than me. Like I'd expect Michael to do college coverage because he naturally follows it and has experience doing it.
Cromulent
I asked a Made vs Pratt question but what I really want to know is how does Made’s defense look after a season that began with a widely noted weight gain, particularly in the lower half.
Eric Longenhagen
Ok SS in a vacuum but worse than Pratt, so 3B for Milwaukee.
rosineater
Follow up on Emmanuel Rodriguez. Fantasy question. Would you take him in a minor league draft (late first round, pick 10-15) over some of the FYPD guys either college or High school?
Eric Longenhagen
Depends on the guy. Gimme Grindlinger before ERod
BKhipsterball
Project Flewelling's FV if he is a catcher vs if he isn't
Eric Longenhagen
60 if he is, 50 if he isnt
Aaron Orheim
Any reaction to the news that the Mariners have made Ryan Sloan "untouchable?" As an Ms fan, I'd personally do Sloan for Gunnar Henderson, but maybe I'm in the minority.
Eric Longenhagen
Six years of Sloan for three of Gunnar? Tough to do that when your payroll seems like it can only be so much. I'd rather move Gilbert/Kirby for a bat and have cheap homegrown arms.
Eric Longenhagen
Like if Sloan is Gerrit Cole, you wanna have that guy
drplantwrench
can you bring up with the fact that is impossible to get a saguaros hat with the higher ups??
Eric Longenhagen
You've gotta get the good merch early on . I have a Sags hat that sits on a light up cactus which I've also adorned with its own bandana
Brendan Smith
What player archetype do you find yourself biased towards? Sort of how orgs tend to find players with similar traits throughout their systems
Eric Longenhagen
Switch hitting MIFs, big-framed catchers with power
Troy McKevitt
Did you get any looks at Carter Graham in the AFL? Had a bit of a breakout in 2026 but seemed to swing and miss a lot in the fall.
will Oda have a FV after he signs or does he count as an international amateur who hasn't played stateside yet
Eric Longenhagen
the latter, Int'l amateur
wheelhouse
if you were brian cashman, what would you do with anthony volpe? what would you make of his wildly shapeshifting skillset that nonetheless results in an ~85 wRC+ year in year out?
Eric Longenhagen
You keep him as a part time 2B and reserve infielder behind a nomadic Cabby and Lombard on the depth chart, and see if he plays himself into having trade value
Eric Longenhagen
Just play him as if he were any other guy at this point
Eric Longenhagen
Which is worse than lombard and cabby
grandbranyan
Brewers have been playing match ups based on swing path versus the opposing SP's arsenal. With Bauers gone could Vaughn (flatter swing) and Luke Adams (more of an uppercut I believe) still make a decent platoon despite both being righties?
Eric Longenhagen
Just gimme Burke/Vaughn at that point
rsimmons07
If (when?) Ketel Marte ends up traded, do you think Demetrio Crisantes is ready to slide in at 2B? Do you give Troy a shot there first? Move Lawlar back to the IF?
Eric Longenhagen
Pretty underwhelming, I'd rather try Troy/Lawlar
Eric Longenhagen
Okay sluggers, nice long chat today. Great questions as always. I'm gonna take one more hard look at the forecast and decide whether to run all the way out there. I was only going to stay for the entire first game because I have comedy show tix in town tonight (star-studded weekend here for that) Take care, see you next week
November isn’t normally a boom time for major league free agency, and particularly not the first half of the month. But with a lockout all but assured come December 2, teams and players alike will be all business in this usually-sleepy month. And so a mere two weeks after the World Series, we have our first multi-year deal of the winter. As the Atlanta Braves first reported, Evan Phillips has agreed to a three-year, $35 million contract with the team.
Phillips hasn’t pitched much in the recent past. Tommy John surgery in June 2025 cost him most of that year and half of 2026. He was shaky at times as he worked his way back into form; he had eight shutdowns and seven meltdowns this year, per our accounting, which is a poor ratio. For comparison, Phillips had 85 shutdowns and 38 meltdowns in his career before 2026. He missed plenty of bats – as he always has – but couldn’t always convert that into clean outings, and he gave up five homers in just 26 innings.
Luckily, though, half-season statistical lines for relievers are about as reliable as 30-day weather forecasts: You shouldn’t take them at face value. It’s just not enough information, and plenty of the underlying data was pretty good anyway, even before you get into the fact that Phillips looked better as the year wore on. But you don’t have to parse small-sample trajectories or extrapolate from trend lines to try to figure out how good Phillips will be next year. The biggest signal of what’s to come is the fact that when he returned, Phillips essentially looked the same as the pitcher he’s been since joining the Dodgers, and he’s been phenomenally effective over that span, with a 2.31 ERA (2.88 FIP, 3.18 xFIP, 2.82 SIERA) over the last five years. Read the rest of this entry »
They don’t hand out rings for continued regular-season excellence.
This has been the plight of the New York Yankees since they paraded through the Canyon of Heroes in 2009, fresh off a World Series victory that nobody envisioned would kick off a championship drought this long. The Yankees have the most regular-season wins of any American League team since then, but have suffered playoff losses to nearly half of the other 14 AL squads. Perhaps more troublingly, the Yanks also have not won a non-Wild Card Series against a team outside the lowly AL Central since knocking off the Orioles all the way back in 2012.
Still, the regular-season win machine continues to whir, even if that is completely unsatisfactory to an organization so obsessed with winning it all that it refuses to hang banners for division titles. After 17 consecutive postseasons without a Yankee coronation, baseball’s most decorated franchise is in a unique position: partially envious of both middling teams like the Rangers, Nationals, and Royals (who all have losing records since the Yankees’ last chip, but also a World Series), and the likes of the Astros, Dodgers, and Giants, who joined the league’s upper crust by capturing multiple World Series trophies.
For the 23rd consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction, as well as MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Batters
When it came to projecting the Pittsburgh Pirates’ 2026 season, ZiPS was grumpier than most other public systems and the FanGraphs staff, forecasting the team for just a 79-83 record in the final preseason standings. The Pirates beat that mark by three wins, finishing at 82-80, for the team’s first winning record since 2018. Unfortunately, that wasn’t enough, as the Pirates finished six back (realistically seven because of tiebreakers) of the Philadelphia Phillies, who grabbed the National League’s final Wild Card spot. However, despite not having snuck into October the way that many thought they would, ZiPS likes the Pirates significantly more this time around.
Some of that comes down to the offense, much of which is a lot less risky than it was entering last season. Konnor Griffin wasn’t an immediate superstar — he missed time with a right forearm injury and a torn sagittal band in his left hand (a body part I had never even heard of until the shortstop’s injury), and was merely pretty good when available — but he’s certainly more established than he was a year ago, and the crazy upside remains. Oneil Cruz also missed time with injury (a broken hand), but the 132 wRC+ he put up in 97 games was a seasonal best, and a big jump from the troubling 85 he posted in 2025. Read the rest of this entry »
Job Summary: Provide support to all members of the Baseball Operations Department in a wide range of both administrative and baseball-related tasks and projects.
This posting will be used to recruit both full-year and summer-start candidates.
Minimum Requirements
Education
Bachelor’s degree or pursuit of degree or equivalent experience in a quantitative and/or human science field such as statistics, mathematics, engineering, economics, exercise science or kinesiology, sport or developmental psychology, and/or human development preferred.
Skills
Independent judgment and ability to multitask is required to plan, prioritize, and organize diversified workload.
Strong work ethic and willingness to work long, flexible hours including weekends and holidays.
High level of attention to detail.
Must be trustworthy and comfortable with managing sensitive information.
High level of interpersonal skills and be able to effectively communicate with wide range of departments, seniority levels and personalities.
Understanding of typical baseball data structures, plus knowledge of current baseball research and traditional baseball statistics and strategy.
Demonstrated experience and proficiency with Microsoft Office Suite (e.g., Microsoft Word, Excel, and PowerPoint).
Other
Spoken and written fluency in English.
Ability to travel within the United States and internationally.
Willing to relocate. This position is based in Cincinnati, OH.
Desired Requirements
Experience
Experience playing/working in college and/or professional baseball/softball preferred.
Skills
Understanding of human physiology, skill acquisition, programming to facilitate both physical and mental performance adaptations, and both progressive and traditional Player Development philosophies.
Perform qualitative and quantitative research and analysis in support of salary arbitration, roster management, player evaluation (professional, domestic, and international), player development (on- and off-field), first-year player draft, and trade deadline efforts.
Player Evaluation – 15%
Introductory level player evaluation, including scouting and writing reports on assignment.
Administrative – 40%
Assist in preparation of advance scouting documents and video for players and coaches during season.
Other – 5%
Other duties as assigned.
Reports To
Assistant Director, Baseball Operations
Physical Requirements
Ability to stand and walk for extended periods throughout the day.
Ability to lift, carry, push, and pull up to 40 pounds (supplies, catering, etc.).
Ability to bend, squat, reach, and climb stairs regularly in the course of daily duties.
Comfortable working in varying conditions (heat, humidity, cold, outdoors, confined spaces like office/cubicles and locker rooms).
Ability to handle repetitive tasks such as updating roster boards, watching video and games, workouts, etc.
Sufficient hand-eye coordination and manual dexterity for tasks like computer work, note-taking, etc.
Ability to remain on feet for long shifts and to work long and variable hours, including weekends and holidays.
Expectations
Adhere to Cincinnati Reds Organization Policies and Procedures.
Act as a role model within and outside the Cincinnati Reds Organization.
Perform duties as workload necessitates.
Demonstrate flexible and efficient time management and ability to prioritize workload.
Meet department productivity standards.
Willingness to learn. Open to new methodologies.
Equal Opportunity Statement:
The Cincinnati Reds are an Equal Opportunity Employer. It is the policy of the Cincinnati Reds to ensure equal employment opportunity without discrimination or harassment on the basis of race, color, national origin, religion or creed, sex, age, military or veteran status, disability, citizenship status, marital status, genetic predisposition or carrier status, sexual orientation or any other characteristic protected by law.
Disclaimer:
The statements herein are intended to describe the general nature and level of work being performed by the employee in this position. The above description is only a summary of the typical functions of the job, not an exhaustive or comprehensive list of all possible job responsibilities, tasks, and duties. Additional duties, as assigned, may become part of the job function. The duties listed above is, therefore, a partial representation not intended to be an exhaustive list of all responsibilities, duties, and skills required of a person in this position.
Primary Purpose
The Cleveland Guardians are currently seeking a Minor League hitting coach to join the Player Development Department. The ideal candidate will possess a passion for player and personal growth, experience integrating multiple information sources to create and implement development plans, and a thorough understanding of skill acquisition principles. Excellent applicants will demonstrate curiosity, creativity, and a drive to learn new concepts to problem solve. First and foremost, we are looking for great people!
We are committed to creating an equitable interview process that recognizes the unique identities of all applicants and allows candidates to bring their best selves forward. If you are more comfortable with submitting your materials (ie. resume, other documents) in Spanish, please feel free to do so.
Essential Duties & Responsibilities
Integrate objective information into a detailed and comprehensive player development plan.
Create effective training environments based off individual player plans.
Collaborate with other Physical domains to effectively plan, implement and monitor a holistic player development plan.
Utilize internal tools, resources, and analytics to assess and adjust player plans.
Communicate development plans and progress with players and Player Development staff and Front Office throughout the year.
Assist field staff with normal daily operations when necessary.
Experience Requirements
Minimum of two years related experience and/or training required. Previous experience with a professional baseball/softball organization or collegiate baseball/softball program is a plus.
Candidate is willing to potentially work year-round at our development complex in Arizona.
Ability to communicate effectively with a wide range of people and backgrounds.
Interest in personal and professional development with a desire to be involved in internal continuing education opportunities.
Proficiency in Microsoft Office, including Teams, Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Office, and Outlook.
Preferred Experience We are looking for a variety of skill sets. If you have demonstrated experience with any of the following, you may be who we are looking for to join our team.
Fluency in Spanish is a plus but not required.
Proficiency in SQL is a plus but not required.
Experience working with Trackman, Edgertronic cameras, biomechanics data, and workload monitoring data.
Strength & conditioning experience is a plus but not required.
Experience with mental performance/sports psychology is a plus but not required.
Organizational Requirements
Demonstrates the ability to read, speak, comprehend, and communicate effectively in order to perform job duties and interact with coworkers.
Represents the Cleveland Guardians in a positive fashion to all business partners, teammates, and the general public.
Ability to build robust, professional relationships with teammates by demonstrating interpersonal skills, approachability, and a collaborative spirit contributing to a positive, respectful work environment.
Ability to perform the essential physical requirements of the role as outlined in the job description, which may include extended periods of sitting, standing, lifting, or navigating a multilevel ballpark.
Adapts quickly and effectively to a fast-paced, dynamic, and diverse work environment.
Ability to act according to the organizational values and service excellence at all times.
Willingness to work extended days and hours, including holidays and weekends.
Willingness to adhere to all Major League Baseball and Club policies.
About Us
As a proud pillar of the Cleveland community, the Cleveland Guardians are dedicated to building a team that embodies the heart and spirit of our city. We offer compensation and benefits that attract, engage, and retain top talent. We are looking for the best person for the job. If you’re interested in this role, we encourage you to apply, even if the salary range below does not meet your expectations.
The expected annual salary range for this position is $60,000–$70,000. This range serves as a general guideline. Actual compensation will be determined based on a candidate’s skills, experience, and qualifications, as well as market and business considerations.
At the Cleveland Guardians, we are all about creating an environment that brings out the best in everyone. It is a big part of who we are, how we compete, and how we make an impact in our community. We want every employee to feel like they truly belong here.
We also know that people sometimes hesitate to apply for jobs unless they check every single box on the qualifications list. We are looking for the best person for the job, and we know that you might bring skills and experiences that are not exactly listed but could be a huge asset to our team. So, if this role excites you, we encourage you to apply, even if you do not meet every single qualification.
There are reports that a lot of free agents are being offered 1 year deals because of the uncertainty, but there are also reports that teams aren’t interested in trading for guys with 1 year remaining because of the uncertainty. How does this make sense?
Jon Becker
Big difference in risk here. If you're trading prospects with 6+ years of club control for a rental, there's a chance that there's no season (or a significantly shortened one) and you gave up prospects for a player who barely played for you, if at all. Signing a player only costs money, money that the player will never get (and that you won't have to pay) if there's no season, and players would only get the prorated portion of their agreed-to salary if the season has, say, 81 games.
fincampbell05
Odds that each of Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida are on Boston’s Opening Day roster? Is it possible to trade them to save a little bit of money by attaching a prospect, or are they just going to get cut if it comes down to that?
Jason Martinezedited
I don't think they'll cut either. Worst-case, they'll take on a big % of salary remaining. Both have enough value to trade. How much another team takes on would be the question. Would depend on return and, of course, any prospects attached.
Also, I think the Red Sox believe Franklin Arias will be ready in 2027. But can he be the starting SS on Opening Day? Not sure they want to do that with no backup plan, although their depth then becomes important. Do they trust Monasterio/Sogard to hold it down until Arias is ready to step in? Probably. But I think they value Story's veteran presence. They won't just give him away for nothing.
I think Duran is more likely to be traded since he's not far removed from being really good for 3 consecutive seasons. Even then, Yoshida might not have a big enough role to stick around. He can hit. But the Red Sox treat him as un-playable in the OF so not sure why another team would think otherwise.
doron
Ketel Marte for Anthony Santander (plus other valauble assets from TOR, say a top pitching prospect) – is that a potential fit?
Both teams shed a problematic player. Both deals have complicated deferral structures, too, which may make it easier to accomodate a swap.
Jon Becker
I don't really see the value in this from the Diamondbacks' end unless they're really getting a ton back from Toronto. I don't think you can count of Santander for much of anything health or production wise and while Marte does have a lot of contract left, his contract isn't actually a bad value even if 2026 Marte is just who he is now. Santander's contract is underwater. I'd think a Marte-to-Toronto trade is very possible but would be much more straightforward than foisting Santander on anyone.
cluckett
What are your thoughts on Buster Posey’s comments hinting that they are only planning to sign 1 starting pitcher? Seems very light.
Jason Martinezedited
Didn't see the quote so I have no context, but I'd assume he's talking one impact addition to go along with Webb and Roupp. Adding a SP4 from the free agent group at a reasonable rate should also be on the priority list and I think they have a decent group of No. 5 candidates (Houser, Wilkinson, Molina, Marte, Whitman). Then you have Birdsong possible back in the 2nd half and Jackson Flora could force his way to the majors in 2027.
But, at least on paper at this moment, you'd probably have a good argument that they should be looking to add 2 impact starters.
Christopher
Lots of Cashman's comments yesterday hinted at minor changes (outside of the pen maybe), suggesting they could roll with Volpe, McM, Stanton, and Ali Sanchez again. Is this just GM speak to not create a desperation tax (we can call it the Bubba Crosby rule that Cashman himself used)?
Jon Becker
I only thought he was really definitive about Stanton, who Cashman said in no uncertain terms is going to be with the team in spring training (whenever it is) and that they expect production from him. The other comments I saw were more leaving the door open to possibilities that Volpe (starting 2B), McMahon (starting 3B) and Sánchez (backup C) would all have roles on the team. I think that's basically the most you can say as a POBO/GM, you're not going to get up there and say "yeah I don't think this guy has a future with us" when he's on the 40-man and projected active roster right now. Sánchez ending up with a spot would be especially surprising to me.
Solitaire
Baltimore has returning Westburg, disappointing Holliday, disappointing Mayo, surprisingly decent Alexander, and surprisingly decent CES for like 2.5 lineup spots (assuming Basallo gets a bunch of DH time). All too good to bury at the end of the bench, nothing left to do in AAA, and none with real trade value. All but Holliday are right-handed. How do you figure that shakes out?
Jason Martinezedited
At this point, they're relying on Gunnar Henderson bouncing back, Jordan Westburg returning to his pre-injury form, and a lot of young guys taking a big step forward. Even if Alonso continues to be productive, I think they probably need to add one more impact bat. They need someone who is reliable enough that they can be fine with just some combination of those things happening. Because not all the young guys will step up. The good version of CES might not show up. Tyler O'Neill might never be healthy/productive.
Coby Mayo absolutely crushes LHP so I think they're in a good spot there as long as they don't need him to be an everyday guy. Blaze Alexander has been really good offensively the past 2 seasons and can play just about every position. Maybe he can be even better if locked in at one spot. I think they can probably shake things up a bit — trading someone like Holliday or Cowser? — but having a solid rotation/bullpen is going to be the priority.
Don Glickstein
Is Chandler Simpson untradeable? It seems like he'd be a great fit for the Mariners who need more speed, more defense, a left fielder, and players who get on base.
Jon Becker
I think the Rays have one untradeable player, and that's Junior Caminero. But I don't think the timing for a Simpson trade is quite right, without a clear heir apparent with Jacob Melton having an injury-ravaged 2026 and not likely to be stepping in early on in 2027. But I could definitely see it get more and more into consideration with Melton in Triple-A, Theo Gillen probably starting in Double-A, and Brendan Summerhill behind Gillen. That's a lot of LHH OF to think about and Simpson is a really fun player but if he loses a step a lot of that value goes away really quickly.
gonzoman
The over/under for games played in 2027? I will go with 100
Jason Martinezedited
I'll go with over/under 144 and go with the Over. I'm optimistic compared to most people but the lockout is just an obvious move for the owners. They have so much leverage in these negotiations and they're going to use it. Players only have a limited window to monetize their talent. Owners think they're gonna live until 100 years old or longer and never stop making money. No pressure for them. I do believe they'll take it further than 5 years ago, but baseball is in a great place and they won't want to lose more than a handful of games. My guess would be mid-to-late April start and 154 games after re-scheduling.
Jon Becker
I'm going to set it at 120 but still take the over. A lot of the same reasoning Jason gives, and I'd also add that if owners are so concerned with franchise values growing at a slower rate than other sports… you probably don't want to tank an entire season or anywhere near it, because that'll certainly kill value growth.
war2d2
What do you think the Cubs wind up doing to fill out their rotation? I feel like Peterson is a no-brainer since he’ll probably be cheap for a 1-year deal and he was mostly fine as a back-end guy. On paper Holmes seems like a fit, but he didn’t impress. Does Matt Shaw have any trade value left? It feels like there’s a fit with NYY to trade for one of their young starters, and then see if you can bring back Happ for cheap or splurge on Suzuki and hope for the best.
Jon Becker
I don't think I've seen a single free agent prediction that thinks Peterson is going anywhere but back to the Cubs, he's a great fit there with all the ground balls and I think he has more upside (and should be cheaper) than Clay Holmes since he's much younger. I saw some pontificating that they could be a fit for Logan Gilbert as a trade-and-extend candidate (since there's so much risk in trading for a rental, as I talked about earlier), and Shaw would be as good a fit for the Mariners as Gilbert is for the Cubs, a righty super utility complement to Brendan Donovan. All the talk with the Cubs has (rightfully) been on pitching but losing Suzuki, Happ, Conforto, and Kelly to free agency leaves big shoes to fill, too, and it'll be interesting to see how they go about it.
cluckett
Do you think the Blue Jays being interested in Adames has legs?
Jason Martinezedited
Sure, it's possible. Not straight up, though. Adames is due an est. 5-yr, $140MM and Gimenez is something like 3-yr, $70MM. Giants might have to eat some salary and additional players would likely be part of a deal, but I can see the reasoning for both sides. Giants upgrade defense and could save $. Jays add some power, vibes, and bounce-back potential.
Important part of this would be each team's SS prospects. JoJo Parker is likely the Jays' starting SS in 2028 so they'd likely move Adames to 2B/3B for the last 4 years of his contract. So his SS defense is not going to hold things up. If they think he'd be a productive bat with adequate defense at 2B or 3B, he's a fit.
Giants have 4 great/really good SS prospects (Jhony Level, Gavin Kilen, Josuar Gonzalez, Luis Hernandez), although Gimenez is only under contract for 3 more seasons and can also play 2B. So might not be as much of a factor, especially if the Giants can save money.
Christopher
As to the leverage point, isnt there a cutoff date where the broadcasting deals get tolled for an additional year? Thats a huge leverage spot for the union.
Jon Becker
Right. If at least 60 games are missed, all the deals get punted back a year, which delays Manfred's plan to revamp all the TV deals, line them all up, etc. The flip side is that if an entire season is missed the league still gets paid for 2027 but then they have to give away all of 2029 for free. Evan Drellich wrote about it in The Athletic a few months back: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7627090/2026/09/25/mlb-lock…
Eugenio Velez
West Sacramento Tommy White over under Plate Appearances?
So maybe 100 PA would be my over/under. He wasn't very productive in 2026. As long as Nick Kurtz is healthy, there won't be many opportunities at 1B. Same with Brent Rooker at DH. I think he was fine at 3B, but not sure he's going to get an extended look there.
wheelhouse
If you were the yankees or mets, would you be interested in alec bohm
Jon Becker
Yes, but only for a pretty limited, Paul Goldschmidt-like role where he's only facing lefties and certain righties, platooning with Garcia or McMahon in the Bronx or Jared Young in Queens. But if I'm Bohm, I don't see a reason to sign such a deal. It's a weak free agent market and he should have no problem getting a decent-size deal (one year or two years with an opt out, perhaps, for $10M-$12M a year) to start. We've only seen those two teams connected to him so far but plenty of others make a lot more sense. The Pirates and Cardinals both come to mind there.
Ice Cream Helmet
Where's your wRC+ cutoff where a hitter goes from "you can contend with this guy batting 8th or 9th" to "he is a black hole who seriously limits your offense"? I say it's 83.
Jason Martinezedited
Really depends on position and how good they are defensively. Most extreme example is Patrick Bailey. He had a 70 wRC+ in 2025 and that was probably just good enough for the Giants to pencil him as their everyday guy in 2026. He was at 13 wRC+ when they traded him but I'm guessing that anything under 60 and he would've lost playing time.
Ke'Bryan Hayes is another extreme example. With his elite defense, I think the Pirates or Reds could've lived with an 85-90 wRC+. But he's not even close to that, which is why he's probably not a starting 3B anymore.
For someone who is just an average defender (or worse), I think anything 100 wRC+ and their job is on the line.
Solitaire
Skubal landing spot: you picking the Dodgers or the field?
Jon Becker
Definitely the field, and specifically the Mets. I'm seeing too much cold water poured on the idea that the Dodgers are going to be super in on him (they don't want to go long-term, for example) and too much Mets chatter and articles more or less saying that everyone is focused on the Mets there to see him end up anywhere else at this point. But, of course, the meetings he's taking with teams next week could change things, and there are always mystery teams!
moop13
How is it possible to project IP for guys like Glasnow and Snell?
Jason Martinez
Projecting is easy. Predicting is impossible because you have no idea when either is finally going to stay healthy. Thus, a lot of people will disagree with a “projection” because they’re thinking of it as a “prediction”.
With those two specifically, they’re getting a lower % just based on injury history. And then you consider that the Dodgers will be super cautious with them in order to have them ready for the playoffs. That’s specific to the Dodgers because of their division. So maybe a bit lower again because of that factor.
Even after considering that, they’re both healthy, not old, and likely coming into camp with no limitations. So my current projections of 150 IP (Snell) and 140 IP (Glasnow) are already assuming that they’re going to get hurt and miss close to 2 months with a yet-to-happen injury. I do think of these as reasonable over/under totals, based on several factors that could change before Opening Day.
bosoxforlife
The chatter on the Red Sox blogs is that they are all-in on Suzuki which would only add to the mess that is the team's outfield. I assume Rafaela is locked in and Anthony, despite not showing much yet, is penciled in for LF. Abreu has taken home 3 Gold Gloves while playing the toughest RF in baseball, and has 25 HR power, but looks like the odd man out. I am thinking that he might be able to pry Hancock, Woo or Kirby from the Mariners.
Jon Becker
I haven't seen it specifically framed as all-in and more just interest, but anyway I don't think it'd be very hard to squeeze him in. Duran is as good as gone and Suzuki and Anthony could just rotate DH and LF without much friction, players will get hurt, etc. The Red Sox ultimately really need another power threat and Suzuki (or Arozarena for that matter) would be the best way to add one in free agency.
wheelhouse
Anthony Volpe has had individual seasons in which he ran a >10% barrel rate, played a 13 OAA shortstop, stole 20+ bases, ran a double-digit BB%, increased his avg. bat speed 3 ticks, and gotten his ZCon% up around the 85% mark while lowering his Chase%. Needless to say he has not put these all together. What are the odds that he eventually does?
Jason Martinez
I have no idea. But one of the really cool things about this sport is that "I have no idea" has nothing to do with all of the analytics we have to tell a story and everything to do with these are human beings and it's just going to click for some guys and it can be much later in their career. It can click for one season and they can suck the next season. It's a mental grind and I don't think any of these players (current, past) are great at explaining it. It makes the game more unpredictable. It makes for a lot of great stories.
Jason Martinez
That will do it for today. Thanks for joining us! We'll be back next Thursday at the same time.
And we are alive! I actually have this open as an open chat, I think, rather than a stricter Q&A. Think of it as an experiment
Brett Zalaski
What is zips seeing with Theo Gillen, Kaelan Culpepper, and Josue de Paula for the 2026 season? Such interesting minor league seasons…how rewarded were they?
Dan Szymborski
ZiPS has a league-average SS; remember, it always liked Culpepper. Gillen would be there too, but ZiPS doesn't really like his CF defense. ZiPS is right around where Steamer is for JDP
booneyO
You mentioned in the 2027 Brewers write-up that Jesus Made is currently projected to have 40-something career WAR, which would be a fantastic career. Made me think — what’s the single best pre debut projection the model has ever produced? Anyone have their median forecast be HOF worthy?
Dan Szymborski
Trout is the highest I believe, and it's not particularly close. Now, I don't have him right before his debut, but after his cup of coffee, and ZiPS was pegging him at *70* WAR which is unreal for a projection
BallparkFan
As a counting stat that depends on available opportunities, RBIs are discounted as a measure of a player’s performance. Have you seen a measure along the lines of “percent of RBI opportunities converted”? For example, the percent of time a hitter drives in a runner on second base, and so on? Is or would such a stat be meaningful in measuring and comparing a player’s hitting results?
Dan Szymborski
It's interesting and STATS did it in a couple of their books. I think the thing you run into is that RBI/opportunity kinda falls in the middle where it has limited use. If you just want to talk about RBIs, then talk about RBIs. if you want to talk about underlying RBI ability, you talk SLG and ISO. So something like this only really comes up when you're discussion something very specific. It's not useless, of course, but the applications are just limited
ankoalec
I feel like I'm in a minority of Tigers fans who don't view moving off Spencer Torkelson as an absolute need in the offseason. I understand the underperformance compared to expectations, but he's been fine offensively for two seasons now. If Detroit were to move on from Tork, what's the upgrade that Scott Harris would be willing to make? Is it simply moving Colt Keith over to first (who I do NOT necessarily view as an upgrade) and make Valencia full-time DH? Would they realistically spend to get France?
I'd be inclined to, the problem being that options aren't great. France is 32 and coming off his best season and had been really meh for years. Keith is in one of those awkward spots where if you don't have enough defense to play third but not enough offense to play first, you end up as a platoon role player
Domingo Ayala
Briceño is in AAA
Bud Smithedited
Briceño probably needs at least another half-season in AAA though, no?
Domingo Ayala
I'd rather run out Keith, Valencia, Tork and Briceño for a year before blocking the position with a guy like France.
Dan Szymborski
And it missed low! lol
wheelhouse
What do you make of Alec Bohm? Is the 3B defense as terrible as his reputation or can it be coached up to where it was in 2024-25, which was just kind of subpar? I think he’s an interesting buy-low candidate to deliver like a 3.5 WAR season for you for $9M
Dan Szymborski
Note that unless I screwed something up, this is an *open* discussion, so all of you can add your opinions to these things!
war2d2
My opinion is that this is a terrible idea! Have you seen my opinions?!
drplantwrench
speaking of trout, whats the variance around his ZIPS projection for 2027? hes getting older but hes only a few years removed from 5-6 fWAR paced seasons
Dan Szymborski
Tinkering with this as an offseason format. While I'm still answering as much as I can, I like the idea of a more open format thing rather than me pronouncing from the Mount.
O'Votto
My only hope for the franchise formerly known as the Cincinnati Reds is a salary floor. Any ideas Dan?
if he can get 22 homers over the next 4 seasons on average, that gets him to 500, the only thing i ask of the baseball gods
Dan Szymborski
Eventually we'll be able to post images
Dan Szymborski
but this looks less horrible than in jotcast
Dan Szymborski
Reds fans would benefit from a salary floor, but getting a salary cap is going to be required to get a salary floor and you have to defeat the MLBPA to get that
Dan Szymborski
Have you seen MY opinions?
HappyFunBall
BRef has (or at least used to have) an RBI/Opp report. I do agree with you that it isn't all that useful. Players don't tend to have a preternaturally good/bad ability to convert RBIs that doesn't also correlate with their other hitting stats
Philip Christy
Has there been any reporting as to what the vibes are in the MLBPA right now? I'm hoping the players are united AF right now, and I'm wondering if there's any evidence of that
Dan Szymborski
I've said it before and I've said it again: if MLB were really considered about revenue disparities between teams, then they'd actually solve…revenue disparities between teams. And I've written about it!
Dan Szymborski
But increasing revenue sharing pools and giving it on the basis of market size AND wins in order to make marginal wins value across markets doesn't naturally suppress salaries.
I'm not sure on the vibes. The thing is that at some point I somehow became one of the olds and I talk to teams/agents more than individual players
war2d2
Age probably has something to do with it. I realized halfway through fall ball that my kid’s little league coach was born sometime after I started college. Time is undefeated.
Philip Christy
I'd imagine Wander Franco's career projections were pretty stellar?
Dan Szymborski
Oh, they were
Dan Szymborski
They'd still be if not for…you know
war2d2
Dan! What’s the ZiPS machine expect Seiya to get in free agency? I realize the Cubs probably can’t fit him AND an entire rotation into their miserly budget, but I’ll miss him terribly. For big stretches of the season he carried the offense (well, he carried the half that PCA wasn’t carrying).
Dan Szymborski
I have the general impression that both sides are fired up now, but we don't have the pressure points yet
Dan Szymborski
ZiPS suggests 4/102 for Suzuki
Dan Szymborski
Excuse me, 4/105
Dan Szymborski
$ CUM
$38.7 $38.7
$30.5 $69.2
$22.5 $91.7
$13.2 $104.9
war2d2
See that’s just frustrating. The idea that the third- or fourth-most-valuable franchise in baseball can’t fit that into their budget is insane.
Dan Szymborski
Time is the ultimate badass. Except I guess the Big Bang which kinda created time
Dan Szymborski
When I was making ZiPS, it was still kinda weird to be older than some MLB players
Dan Szymborski
Now I'm 48, so I'm old enough to be the dad of a huge percentage of them
war2d2
Wait’ll you get to 51 and parts of you stop working for no apparent reason.
Philip Christy
$ CUM 😹
drplantwrench
OnlyZIPS
Dan Szymborski
It looks worse if I don't do all caps. But I don't like letting an unfortunate word tell ME what to do
Alex Remington
What does ZiPS see for Tyler Mahle's performance over the next couple years? He somehow held onto his second-half performance gains in the playoffs. Could he be a 3-4 win pitcher again?
Philip Christy
Who does ZiPS like better next season, Tolle or L.Henderson? Need to pick one in a keeper league
Dan Szymborski
Good to see you Alex!
Dan Szymborski
BAM Player Yr Tm T Age W L S ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO HP WP G/GF HBP GDP IBB BK ERA+ FIP WAR 5WAR WPr 3YERA+
701656 Logan Henderson 2027 MIL R 25 9 7 0 3.79 25 25 116.3 98 53 49 17 32 124 3 3 41% 3 5 0 0 109 3.82 1.8 9.0 15 108
801139 Payton Tolle 2027 BOS L 24 10 6 0 3.41 29 28 153.0 134 63 58 18 40 165 6 4 44% 6 7 1 1 123 3.42 3.2 16.2 15 124
Alex Remington
You too, Dan! Also, Dan didn't answer about Alec Bohm, so I will: he's a super BA-dependent righty corner infielder who offers neither power nor defense. I'd be terrified that he turns into Chris Johnson at any moment. I could certainly see him getting a one-year shrug emoji contract – I'm sure he can outhit Ke'Bryan Hayes!
war2d2
If you were running a team that was in the market for a corner OF would you prefer Seiya, or Arozarena as a value play? I’ve seen a lot of people projecting Randy to get a lot less (Ben had him at 3/$70m), but I’m not sure he’s ~30% worse of a player.
Dan Szymborski
Oops, forgot about Bohm. I'm with Alex. He's kinda stopgappy
Dan Szymborski
I'd prefer Seiya. I honestly think people are underrating what Arozarena will get
Jeremy Fox
What 2027 ZiPS projections surprised you the most? I'm very surprised that the Phillies and Mets both project as pretty good at the moment.
drplantwrench
which FA do you think most likely to turn into a pumpkin compared to expectations? i do feel like randy is a top choice
Dan Szymborski
Tolle has the funner comps too
Dan Szymborski
Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Comp4 Comp5 Comp6
Billy Loes Scott Bankhead Brett Tomko Scott Sanderson Larry Dierker Art Mahaffey
Mike McCormick Jim Merritt Frank Tanana Greg Swindell Chris Sale Billy Hoeft
war2d2
Man I loved me some late-career Tanana back in the day. Those early-90s Tigers teams were a fun bunch. Massive TTO guys hitting bombs, your ace is a 43yo guy throwing 82mph, your closer occasionally throws a knuckleball, and one of your best players has 20 starts at 6 different positions. Didn’t result in a lot of wins, but they were entertaining.
Dan Szymborski
I like Trevor Rogers, but he's really risky – he's one of the best non-Skubal pitchers in FA and he might get a crazy contract relative to projections
Dan Szymborski
But of course, the lockout throws a monkey wrench into the works
Charles Bengal Tiger
Man, those are some wild comps for Tolle. Dierker is much underrated. A true ace, but injuries took a toll on his arm from early on.
Dan Szymborski
Jeremy, remember, the projected standings are Steamer only right now! I've only JUST got ZiPS running official projections, so I'm not yet at the point where I have enough breathing space to think about that stuff
Dan Szymborski
I lost a day projecting players in the year 20227 and my damn IP address changed last weekend and I lost some time until I was updated for FTP access (I needed some of the data we have on our FTP)
HappyFunBall
In 20227 baseball will be played on the moon and Coors Field will be considered a pitcher's park
Dan Szymborski
Underrated as a manager too
Dan Szymborski
Tanana has such an interesting career since he spent a large part of it as a flamethrower and a large part as a low MPH slop tosser
Dan Szymborski
He probably lost 8-10 mph on his fastball which is REALLY hard to overcome
war2d2
I remember reading an interview where they asked him what he threw, and he said “a curve, a slider, a split, a change, and whatever that thing is that used to be my fastball.”
Jeremy Fox
Ok, in that case what Steamer 2027 projections surprised you the most? For me, it was projecting the Mets and Phillies to be pretty good.
Dan Szymborski
According to Star Trek: Deep Space Nine, the last World Series will be played in 16 years
Domingo Ayala
What do you make of Crochet in 2027?
war2d2
Bigger fan of traditional knitting. You can’t kill a man with a crochet hook.
Dan Szymborski
The Bell Riots already shoudl have happened two years ago!
Dan Szymborski
you can TRY
grandbranyan
101 IP of 3.10 ERA | 3.30 FIP | 3.61 xFIP at AAA from 2025 to 2026 and 123 IP of 2.33 ERA | 2.92 xERA | 3.26 FIP | 3.31 xFIP | 3.14 SIERA in MLB from 2025 to 2026 shakes out to a 3.79 ERA projection for Logan Henderson? Why such heavy regression for a 25yo pitcher who has done nothing but perform at the highest levels over the last two years?
Dan Szymborski
regression for all pitchers is pretty significant!
Dan Szymborski
I'm surprised Steamer liked the Brewers so much
Dan Szymborski
ZiPS has kinda been the most optimistic
Domingo Ayala
Thoughts on valuing RBIs and Wins for season end awards? I've circled back to finding them valuable if the awards are meant to reward what happened vs. skill
Dan Szymborski
(though still missing horribly low)
Dan Szymborski
I haven't circled around. I still think of those as things that happened *for the teams*
Dan Szymborski
Antietam was a big deal and it DID happen, but I'm not giving George McClellan any MVG trophies
Domingo Ayala
Imagine Wander and Caminero playing next to each other for a decade
Dan Szymborski
On Henderson, remember that there's still a lot of 2025 AAA performance in there – AAA performance doesn't become less predictive when we have MLB performance near it
Domingo Ayala
Matt Shaw: Yankees opening day 3B?
war2d2
Don’t threaten me with a good time.
Phillip Denny
Which of the glut of FA 2B does ZiPS like the most? Relatedly, which does ZiPS think is the most cost-effective?
Domingo Ayala
Note on new chat format: the format doesn't appear right when you post a column of stats. Also, where can I find replies to my comments? Just scrolling back?
schwarber raleigh burns
Hi Dan! I doubt we'll miss an entire 2027 season, but how would that theoretically affect ZiPS in 2028? Would you just assume an ageing curve for each player and weigh the past 3 seasons a bit more evenly?
Domingo Ayala
Unique stadiums give a big advantage to the home team. Why are new stadiums looking traditional? How about a giant stadium?
Dan Szymborski
ZiPS has Lowe with the best 2027 projection, but Arraez with the best five-year projection
grandbranyan
2026 Misio was projected at 1.7 WAR with 2.8 WAR as the 80th percentile. He ended up with 6.6 fWAR | 7.4 rWAR. Did he exceed his 99th percentile projection?
Dan Szymborski
Unique stadiums also make things awkward for road games though
Phillip Denny
How much are we trusting the defensive turnaround from Lowe and Arraez btw? I know OAA isn't super sticky but both went from horrible to stellar….
Dan Szymborski
If we don't have 2027, probably filling in 2026 projection with the missed time non-injury modifier
Dan Szymborski
I really hope I don't have to do that though for obvious reasons!
Dan Szymborski
93. Not in fWAR, but the percentiles were based on like 110 innings
Dan Szymborski
I'll note that ZiPS chops a LOT off of Arraez and Lowe defense
Dan Szymborski
For those of you here, I'd like to see what you think of something
Dan Szymborski
For some of our offseason/lockout options, I'm hoping to propose some kind of FanGraphs Audio type of revival where me and someone else (maybe Ben?) actually have it set up for callins, so that FG subscribers can bring up what's on their minds and argue with us a bit
woody1937
Hi Dan & Ben, long time listener first time caller. What's for lunch? I'll hang up and listen.
Phillip Denny
Defensive metrics remain a black box to me. I don't get how you can go from abysmal to elite, and I super don't get how per OAA Walls is below average but per DRS he's Andrelton Simmons.
Dan Szymborski
Is that the kind of thing anyone would be interested in?
war2d2
I hate it! What is it?
Dan Szymborski
Without baseball, I want to push more community things for our members
Brett Zalaski
If zips sees De Paula like STEAMER, seems like it likes his bat a little less than McGonigle's…what are some of the differences? surprising since similar lines in AA and de paula had a good mlb stint (sss)
war2d2
Oh that’d be fun. I’d absolutely subscribe. I’m not sure you’d want me calling in, but I’d listen for sure.
Dan Szymborski
I feel that one of the reasons we survived COVID isn't just that we started directly asking for money, but that our readers felt they were part of something
Dan Szymborski
or I might be wrong and romanticizing?
Dan Szymborski
I take feedback from you guys very seriously!
Dan Szymborski
I had a cheeseburger for lunch!
Dan Szymborski
DoorDash sent me a notification about a Hardee's deal and I though "Whoa, I forgot they still exist" and had a burger. It was decent but needed salt
Jamey
Any teasers for which teams you will project next?
Dan Szymborski
Is it just me that forgets that Hardee's exists?
war2d2
I grew up around Hardee’s but never went to one, then moved to CA for college and they became Carl’s Jr. Which Id eat at for a while when I was in college, but they’re just not that good.
Dan Szymborski
Pirates!
Dan Szymborski
then Rangers probably monday
Dan Szymborski
ZiPS going to be a little more flexible than usual. Pre-lockout transactions may swamp things and I want to be able to grab some of those myself
Jameyedited
Makes sense. I’m curious if there will or won’t be the flood of transactions predicted because of the impending lockout.
Dan Szymborski
A couple weeks ago, I realized that ROY ROGERS still exist. And their roast beef is better than Arby's
Dan Szymborski
Apparently, western MD still loves Roy Rogers
Jamey
I forget Hardee’s exists, but in live in California where it’s called Carl’s Jr.
Dan Szymborski
I dont' think Hardee's has ever been as popular as Carl's Jr. is in CA. No?
Jamey
I’d take an In-n-out burger over Carl’s any day of the week…
Dan Szymborski
I don't spend much time in CA
Dan Szymborski
I was shocked to see Roy Rogers in Cumberland. The moderately nice woman my age who doesn't like when I tell stories about her wanted to stop at the dispensary and I saw Roy Rogers so HAD to get it
Dan Szymborski
I assumed they had all gone out of business in 1998 or something
Dan Szymborski
But I mean Carl's Jr is still more popular in CA than hardee's elsewhere, I think. Not making a burger value judgment
Dan Szymborski
Any other baseball stuff before we go? I gotta get Pirates ready for Meg and Matt so it can go in the morning
woody1937
I mostly listen to audio things in my car, would you guys be likely to set up FG audio on pop streaming platforms like YT music or spotify or keep it in-house? I'd make a point to listen regardless but I'd probably frequently forget otherwise
Dan Szymborski
FA has been on spotify!
Jamey
Yeah, Carl’s is reasonably popular out here. I’ll happily make the burger value judgement for you on this one.
Jake Bloss is looking to rebound after two years of frustration. A Top 100 prospect beginning with our midseason update in 2024 — he ranked 82nd with a 50 FV — the 25-year-old right-hander made his major league debut with the Houston Astros that June before being traded to the Toronto Blue Jays. He subsequently landed on the shelf after tearing his UCL six minor league starts into the 2025 season, and he is still battling his way back to full form. Returning to the mound this summer, Bloss registered a 6.18 ERA and a 6.01 FIP over 39 1/3 minor league frames. Much for those reasons, he ranked just ninth on our newly-released Blue Jays top prospects list. Moreover, his FV has been downgraded to a 40+.
In his recent report on Bloss, Brendan Gawlowski noted that, “I still like him and, health willing, see a path to the mid-rotation projection he had last year. Between the injury and uneven performance, though, he slides into this FV tier for now.”
The road to Toronto currently has Bloss in Arizona, where his outings with the Mesa Solar Sox have been something of a mixed bag. As chance would have it, I attended arguably the best of them on a drizzly October 31 afternoon at Scottsdale Stadium. Pitching against a Scorpions lineup that included highly-regarded prospects such as Nathan Flewelling and Zyhir Hope, Bloss fanned four batters and allowed just a pair of baserunners over three innings. Notably, his fastball velocity sat 96-97 mph throughout. Read the rest of this entry »
With another season in the books, it looks like it’s going to be a long winter. The good news is that for certain flavors of sicko, this is when the real action happens. Welcome to We Tried Season. In case you’ve forgotten, We Tried is the catch-all term for when a player signs with one team and another team subsequently makes it known that they also tried to sign that player, or at least had some interest in him. It’s a way of mollifying the fans who desperately want their team to get better. “No, we didn’t sign the player you wanted us to sign,” says the team, “but we are committed to getting better. Just not as committed as the team that actually signed him. Please don’t be mad at us.”
Imagine that it’s Christmas morning. Your son wakes up and sprints down to the tree to find his presents. You’re already up, sitting in an armchair with your slippers on and a steaming cup of tea. “Hey little guy,” you say with a smile. “You can stop looking. Santa didn’t bring you any presents this year. But don’t you worry! He strongly considered getting you that Lego set you wanted, before ultimately deciding that it wasn’t the best allocation of his limited resources.” Wouldn’t that make your son feel better?
That’s the essence of the We Tried, and here at FanGraphs, we’ve spent the past two offseasons and trade deadlines documenting them all, both in writing and in needlessly complicated spreadsheets. We haven’t seen an official We Tried so far this offseason, but reports of which teams are interested in which players are starting to fly, and we’ve already come very close. After right-hander Ryan Weiss signed a one-year deal with the Padres, Jesse Rogers of ESPN reported that Weiss “had interest around the league and a chance to return to the KBO.” Maybe we’ll find out which other teams were interested in Weiss, but for the meantime, we can be generous and credit the entire country of South Korea with the first We Tried of the offseason. Congratulations Korea, and thank you for gochujang. It is amazing. Read the rest of this entry »
