Welcome to our Open Game Thread for the LDS games today. Chat with fellow readers as we watch four baseball games for the last time all year! Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual game chats, your messages will be posted immediately.
Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this is a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts. We might even have some FanGraphs Staff drop in and join the fun. Please be courteous to your fellow Members, or you may find your chat privileges revoked.
We are going to open the chat up at 3:30 PM ET and it will remain open until the final out of the Brewers-Padres game.
Saw him on the backfields, where he hit everything. Didn't get much of Surprise and he wasn't in the lineup there when I did. But he looks hitterish.
Charles Bengal Tiger
Does Henry Bolte have another gear beyond what he showed this season?
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't think so. He already hit for power than you'd think for someone with a 60%+ ground ball rate and a lot of strikeouts.
Resolution
Any insights on Jack O’Dowd’s ability to stick at catcher? Has been rougher so far but he’s still newish to the position
Brendan Gawlowski
Didn't look good. Arm very light for it, couple pop times in the 2.15 range yesterday.
Kevin Kelsey
Jake Monroe a borderline top 100?
Brendan Gawlowski
No. Has barrel feel but that's the only tool. Fringy at third, oppo shooter with below average power.
riibett
Are you more of an Owen Carey or Connor Essenburg guy?
Brendan Gawlowski
Essenburg. I don't want to overreact to a few AFL games but Carey looked ordinary this past week.
Kevin Kelsey
Can Braxton Bragg get back to being a well regarded maybe mid rotation arm?
Brendan Gawlowski
I'd take the under. Saw him last week, sat 92-94, breaking ball looked just okay.
Charles Bengal Tiger
Would you rather have Kevin Alvarez or Xavier Neyens out of the Astros' system?
Brendan Gawlowski
Alvarez. I'm not sure Neyens can hit.
Phil
Who goes from Worcester to Boston this winter/spring? Arias I should hope, but I'm wondering about the long-awaited Duran trade opening up a spot for Campbell. Are there other good fits?
Brendan Gawlowski
Red Sox list will be out fairly early in the cycle, which will presumably answer this in a lot of detail. Arias will be up early, possibly Opening Day depending on what Boston does this winter. As for Campbell, he's going to have to hit his way back into town.
rainingmozzarella
How has Demetrio Crisantes and Patrick Forbes looked so far, if you've had a chance to see them?
Brendan Gawlowski
Did not see Forbes; Crisantes was his usual self. Fast, good barrel feel. Better than a lot of the pitchers he'll face.
Charles Bengal Tiger
A follow-up on the Alvarez-Neyens question. Is Albert Fermin a comparable prospect to Alvarez?
Brendan Gawlowski
No.
rainingmozzarella
So since the Dbacks have a bloated payroll, bad farm system, and way too many holes, do you think it makes sense to trade either Perdomo or Moreno to get a bunch of pieces back?
Brendan Gawlowski
Sounds like payroll is about to go down, too. I don't think I would, with Burnes back and Pfaadt (perhaps) having turned a corner, I'd keep the core intact for another run.
rainingmozzarella
In an effort for the Dbacks to get more pitching depth, do you think Tommy Troy for Karson Milbrandt makes sense for both sides?
Brendan Gawlowski
If you were really confident that you could reliably get Millbrandt back into the strike zone, sure. But I don't know how you could be.
Churlayla
Rafe Perich. What's the fatal flaw?
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't know if he has a fatal flaw, more that fringy defense and a power-over-hit skillset likely make him more of a supplementary fit than an everyday guy.
higginsford
What are the top 1 or 2 things you would focus on if you were hired as the A's GM?
Brendan Gawlowski
Figuring out what the altitudinal effects of the new park will look like and building a pitching plan around that from soup to nuts.
Cosmo
How likely is it that either Josuar or Walcott are the #1 prospect sometime next summer?
Brendan Gawlowski
Josuar's time in that airspace is more likely in 2028
ImKeithHernandez
Do the Mets have a #1, #3, and #5 in McLean, Scott, and Thornton?
Brendan Gawlowski
Good way to think of it. Maybe shorting Thornton a little bit.
Solitaire
When an athletic corner outfielder with well-above average sprint speed grades out well below average as a fielder, specifically from range, is the conclusion just "this guy takes bad routes because he misreads the ball?" Can you teach that? This question is about Dylan Beavers, but I feel like I see it often
Brendan Gawlowski
That can be part of it. First step/acceleration comes into play too. This can get better with time and reps but some guys just have better instincts and reads than others.
Churlayla
Thanks for taking our queries!
Brendan Gawlowski
You're welcome. I may have screwed something up in how I scheduled this, there aren't many folks in here today relative to most weeks. So, uh, good odds if you have a question…
higginsford
Do you think Jefferson Rojas and Brayden Taylor contribute at the MLB level next year? Have them in an Ottoneu league
Brendan Gawlowski
Fantasy is a little out of my realm but my instinct is that neither should be lynchpins of your 2027 plans.
Churlayla
Max Anderson breaks camp at the keystone in Detroit?
Brendan Gawlowski
I would guess not. Re-signing Gleyber would make sense for them, but even if they keep it internal, I'd prioritize getting Lee in the lineup first.
crossedup
Where are we at on Tai Peete? Stat wise it seems like he took a step forward with some help of a near .400 babip; was there any notable change to his set up or swing at the plate to go with it?
Brendan Gawlowski
Spin has been the big issue with him. It still is but perhaps to a slightly lesser degree. This is a guy to stay patient with, if he hits, he'll hit big. Prospects move so quickly these days, he's one I'd continue to push slowly.
viceroy
Names to watch in Fall and winter leagues? Maybe prospects who were hyped and then hurt and these will be the first looks at them in a minute
Brendan Gawlowski
I'll have notes on a lot of these guys in the coming days but… Lot of pitchers match that description… Kannon Kemp, Braxton Bragg, Jake Bloss… I liked R.J. Sales yesterday, too. Among the hitters, Dax Kilby blew me away, Wyatt Sanford and Nathan Hall are really interesting. Tai Peete and Braylon Payne are fun/toolsy. Alex McCoy may hit one to Mars.
tdmoc
Any chance you'll be at tomorrow's Peoria/Glendale game? Curious about Patrick Reilly 50+ innings into his TJS return.
Brendan Gawlowski
Back home, unfortunately. Perhaps Eric will be at the game…
viceroy
Why didn’t Max Anderson get a shot down the stretch? Is the glove work an issue? Are they skeptical of the approach even though it’s worked so far? Issues against heat/spin?
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't see him as an impact guy.
Bud Smith
Get a chance to see Susana?
Brendan Gawlowski
I did. Sat 101-103, low effort, which is a real thing I just typed. Pairs it with a low-mid 80s sweeper mostly, threw a couple harder breaking balls. He'll be high on the T100.
oaktownblues
Should the A's stretch Luis Medina back out to be a starter? Or keep in him in the pen now that he's had some success?
Brendan Gawlowski
Bullpen, I don't think he has the command to start, and the fastball plays down from the number.
crossedup
What's the off-season scheduling look like? Odds and ends from the AFL and planning for the Top prospect lists?
Brendan Gawlowski
I'll have a bunch of notes in the next week, they're long enough that we're planning to publish a few posts to stagger them. From there, Eric is working furiously on Asian players, we'll need to prepare a 2027 draft board, and of course lists, lists, lists. I'm 98.54% done with one list and 89.14% done with a second.
Brendan Gawlowski
I'd also like to write a follow up to the pro scouting piece that ran at the end of September.
higginsford
I know y'all got a lot on your plate but around when do you think an initial list will go on THE BOARD for the 2027 draft?
Brendan Gawlowski
Eric and I talked about this when I was down in Phoenix. Before the start of the college season, late January or early February would be my guess.
Churlayla
Franklin Primera. Get excited or he just overpowered the level?
Brendan Gawlowski
Little of both. Expecting him to be a 45+ this winter. Sneak peak on the conclusion: "While the hit tool is really exciting, Primera is not especially projectable, and we want to see how his swing and approach hold up against better pitching before we dive in with both feet. He’s the kind of player where, were I still scouting for a team, I’d write him up as an everyday player without hesitation, but from a valuation perspective, we think it behooves us to stay patient for a little while longer. "
CherryTomato
First full healthy season from Farmelo. Anything unexpected from his performance?
Brendan Gawlowski
Not really, was worried that the injuries might've taken a bite out of his speed, but fortunately that wasn't the case. Otherwise, showed the talent and the swing and miss you'd expect with his long swing. We'll see if better pitching forces an adjustment soon.
Solitaire
I get the impression that high/low effort on velocity is treated as quite important/valuable but I'm not sure I've seen analysis confirming that. I've seen HOF starters who look like they're max efforting all the time and I've seen middle reliever Andrew Kittredge casually throw 96 like he's in the backyard. Curious your thoughts. Does looking like you're not trying actually mean it's easy? Are our monkey brains just stuck on facial expressions as important identifiers?
Brendan Gawlowski
Lot to unpack here. I generally but not always like lower effort because, in my experience at least, it correlates with better strike throwing and health. It's certainly not a 1:1 relationship with either. I don't recall where I read it, but Scherzer had a really insightful perspective on this, and on how he's been able to stay healthy even though he's a high effort guy because he's so strong and coordinated that he's able to pitch without over-stressing his arm.
Brendan Gawlowski
For most of the non-freak athletes, it's really hard to put the ball where you want if you're trying to throw it as hard as you can.
Charles Bengal Tiger
What would an 80th percentile outcome on Logan Hughes look like?
Brendan Gawlowski
Late career Joc with smoother peaks and valleys.
niall
Among baseball writers, I've noticed that there's a lot of mention around IP as the proxy to measure SP workload in the minors and majors. I started thinking about this after noticing Brody Hopkins and Kendry Chourio pitched a similar number of innings despite Hopkins facing about 100 more batters (very different types of pitcher, obviously). Do you get the sense teams/scouts are using this proxy or is this more of a shorthand where they're measuring something else to get at the "load" on pitchers?
Brendan Gawlowski
Shorthand. Teams have other ways to more precisely measure workload/stress.
Churlayla
What's for lunch?
Brendan Gawlowski
Man, I just had breakfast, why so ambitious?
crossedup
Following up from last chat; were you able to take a look at the Mariners lower minor starters? I know you were a bit interested in Bowery but there was also Reid Easterly and Scott Rouse. I know you were in AFL so not sure if you had a chance to look.
Brendan Gawlowski
Sorry, next chat I got you.
Haste11
Does Ralphy V win the starting 1B job in Cleveland on Opening Day? It feels like he doesn't have anything left to prove in AAA
Brendan Gawlowski
Lot of variables, new CBA might have something to say about this. You will see him soon, whether it's Opening Day or not is subject to factors outside of his control/performance.
Brendan Gawlowski
On talent, he could do it.
Fangraphs Man
Has Hagen Smith showed anything in his cup of coffee that makes you think he’s more likely to be a starter long term?
Brendan Gawlowski
No, strengths — awesome stuff — and weaknesses — below average control — in his game have long been apparent and we're seeing them these playoffs.
Churlayla
Ethan Anderson is the #2 C behind Basallo by August 2027?
Brendan Gawlowski
I think Anderson and Willems both are better fits as third catchers than traditional backups. Particularly with Basallo around, who you may not want to catch everyday anyway, I think BAL would prefer to have a better defender as the backup. But that's speculation.
Samuel Clemens
What does Tyler Bremner need to work on to keep moving up and be an effective SP with the Angels,
Brendan Gawlowski
Needs a better breaking ball.
scottsjunk1981
Any new rumors about whether and when there will be an R5 draft? Have you heard of any teams drawing a meaningfully different line than in most seasons?
Brendan Gawlowski
Haven't done any true reporting on this, but the scouts I sat with weren't optimistic.
Churlayla
Caden Bodine is catching MLB games by June?
Brendan Gawlowski
Sure, why not.
GB
Any plans to add a scouting report to Yostin Pena?
Brendan Gawlowski
Yes he'll get an extended writeup when we do NYY. I suspect they'll be fairly early in the list cycle.
wheelhouse
I’ve read that the yankees’ terrible fundamentals permeate their whole system down through the minors. Is that what you’ve seen, and how long would it take to address? Years?
Brendan Gawlowski
It does, they're really sloppy. In theory it could be a fairly quick fix.
jazzrunner12
Do the Tigers give Valencia 400 at bats next year? That was quite an impressive debut but he's 26 not 23. Also, do the Angels let Nelson Rada take over CF for most of the year?
Brendan Gawlowski
He's a tricky one to plan around, because the approach is aggressive/exploitable and you don't want to go into the year with him as a starter and have no Plan B. At the same time, he can be both really flawed and a lot worse next year… and still be a guy you want to give 500+ PA's anyway. So, yes, tentatively.
Brendan Gawlowski
As for the second question, this depends as much on how they want to man-manage Trout as it does on Rada's talent. I suspect, one way or the other, he'll play out there plenty. You might have to wait a bit for him to be the everyday guy.
wheelhouse
What do you attribute it to? Is it a question of the players they acquire or a lack of coaching emphasis? It’s bizarre to me that it’s such a glaring embarrassment on their big league squad and they’ve never done anything to correct it in their system
Brendan Gawlowski
This is a follow up to the Yankees question… Probably a little bit of both? It's not like any of the players or coaches want to see errors or whatnot. But, clearly there's an apparatus where both the acquisition groups and the coaching/dev staffs are willing to live with it if the guy can otherwise play.
canderson20
Do you have any insight on how teams decide who is going to play in the AFL? Thinking of a guy like Braden Nett who could seemingly use some extra innings due to time on IL this year compared to Kenya Huggins who had mostly a full season.
Brendan Gawlowski
Varies from team to team. Some see it as a valuable place to get innings/extra AB's, others couldn't care less and send a bunch of orgs to fill out a roster.
Brendan Gawlowski
I will say: If I was a player, I don't know if I'd want to go to the AFL. The atmosphere in the park is lethargic, the competition is just okay, a lot of the players/coaches don't want to be there, some of the rule experiments might be frustrating… It's not for everybody.
rainingmozzarella
Any idea why Milbrandt had issues throwing strikes in AAA? 64.4% strike rate in AA down to 57.4% in AAA. That's a huge decline. Was it issues getting acclimated to the different ball?
Brendan Gawlowski
I would just be speculating. The ball is a common issue for guys jumping to AAA. Both because they're developing feel for it but also because some guys don't get nearly the same movement and batters don't chase to the same degree.
Phil
There was a funny question in the Red Sox post mortem press conference–a reporter asked Craig Breslow if he would draft Craig Breslow (I think the implication would be that, as an analytics/Driveline guy, he only cares about velocity and spin). Breslow averred that he would–that he would recognize himself as someone with the ability to induce weak contact, regardless of the approach. But Breslow was drafted in teh 26th round (which I don't think still exists?)–how would, in fact, a guy like that, an ivy league LOOGY type with unimpressive velo. fare today? Would anyone draft Craig Breslow?
Brendan Gawlowski
With the caveat that I have only the vaguest feel for what Breslow's game looked like in college… He probably had some kind of standout or outlier trait, whether it was command, deception, changeup quality, I don't know. With his arm strength, it's hard to imagine he'd have been selected early, and while he might've been someone that would get taken in the 12th or 18th round today, it's possible he wouldn't be selected at all. Obviously, I think, the shorter draft and quicker development trajectory are filtering out guys who would develop into big leaguers in another context.
philly
Would be curious to hear any AFL thoughts on Flewelling. I thought it odd Tampa would send a young catcher coming off a full season.
Brendan Gawlowski
He looked good, only saw him play one game, but liked the approach and swing. Personally, I'd take him over Bodine.
Charles Bengal Tiger
Brock Wilken. Is there still hope?
Brendan Gawlowski
Maybe as a bench bat.
scottsjunk1981
What's your take on players who far exceed expectations in their rookie seasons and then fall back to being replacement-ish? Did the league adjust? Did they just start on a favorable part of the random walk? As a Nats fan, I'm specifically looking at Parker and Irvin and worrying about Alvarez.
Brendan Gawlowski
Sometimes the league adjusts, sometimes guys are able to execute their stuff for a stretch in a way that they can't over the long haul.
Churlayla
Bold prediction: Boston fans throw something/one in the harbor if Arias isn't at the 6 on day one.
Brendan Gawlowski
Every fanbase has its overreactors…
vottogoat
Any thoughts from Michael Arroyo's cup of coffee in the majors this year? Chance to be a regular next year?
Brendan Gawlowski
Didn't play much, unfortunately, bizarre that the M's gave Weston Wilson so many AB's down the stretch. When he did play, he kept on doing the same things he's always done…
Churlayla
Do you have prospects you can't contain your excitement about or has your career taught you to stay relatively 'flat' and wait for things to play out thru the minors?
Brendan Gawlowski
I enjoy the journey.
canderson20
Cardinals brass reported they're going to have Rainiel start working 3b into the mix for him this offseason. If he takes to the position, would it move him up or down the rankings?
Brendan Gawlowski
Steady.
tdmoc
Any big takeaways from your first (nearly) full year working here?
Brendan Gawlowski
Nothing earth shattering. There are a lot of people within the game who read this stuff… I like being able to cover the game globally and write things like the Brandon Valenzuela re-eval and (especially) the pro scouting piece…
OranguTongs
Anyone down in Arizona who looks like the next Jonah Tong?
Brendan Gawlowski
GDI.
Churlayla
Joseph Dzwiera is in the BAL rotation by mid-season?
Brendan Gawlowski
I suspect he'll get a look by that point, at least…
Churlayla
Nelson Rada? Raudi Rodriguez is the stud and he'll come off the top rope to remind you if need be! Lol
Brendan Gawlowski
– glances at Angels Roster Resource – There's… room for both of them.
Brendan Gawlowski
Think I'm going to shut it down here today. Thanks as always for stopping by, I'll be back in the normal Tuesday window again next week. Enjoy the postseason and see you soon.
Thanks in part to their offense’s listless performance against a parade of six Braves pitchers — Atlanta’s second bullpen game in a row — the Dodgers squandered a chance to take a 2-0 Division Series lead on Sunday, lending extra urgency to their matchup against Chris Sale in Tuesday’s Game 3. Manager Dave Roberts shook up his lineup in ways both foreign and familiar, most notably dropping Shohei Ohtani in the batting order below the two-hole for his first time as a Dodger, in hopes it would lead to a better approach by the banged-up, slumping slugger. Additionally, Roberts called upon old hands Enrique Hernández and Miguel Rojas, as much for their intensity as for the platoon advantages they provided against the ace lefty. Not all of those moves had a direct impact, but one certainly did, as Hernández broke a scoreless tie with a two-run homer off Sale in the fourth inning. Backed by seven strong innings from Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Dodgers eked out a 3-1 victory, positioning them to clinch the series on Wednesday.
Through the first two games, Ohtani had gone 2-for-8 with a pair of strikeouts out of the no. 2 spot behind Mookie Betts, with a single in each game and three hard-hit balls in all. Roberts dropped him to fifth behind Betts, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernández, and Will Smith — the first time Ohtani had started a game batting lower than fourth since 2020, when he was Angel. I’ll explore the numbers below, but the move made particular sense given Ohtani’s sudden struggles against sliders, Sale’s forte. Elsewhere, Roberts swapped out switch-hitting Tommy Edman at second base in favor of Rojas, batting sixth, and in place of lefty-swinging Max Muncy, he inserted the righty-swinging Hernández at third base, batting him ninth. Ohtani aside, the lineup resembled the one the Dodgers used when they — including Yamamoto — squared off against Sale on August 27 in Atlanta; Hernández played third, and Rojas second, with Edman in center in place of the injured Andy Pages. The Dodgers lost that one, 1-0, as Sale tossed a five-hit, 11-strikeout shutout, with Rojas the only one of the aforementioned moving parts to collect a hit.
Muncy merely ranked second on the team this year in both wRC+ (129) and homers (29), and what’s more, he homered in each of the first two games of the NLDS, running his franchise record for postseason dingers to 18. Coming off one of his best seasons against same-side pitching — .261/.343/.504 (133 wRC+) in 134 plate appearances against lefties, compared to .249/.349/.485 (126 wRC+) in 427 plate appearances against righties — this wasn’t a benching to be taken lightly. Hernández’s small-sample numbers against lefties during an injury-shortened season (.176/.236/.333, 50 wRC+ in 55 PA) didn’t exactly strengthen the case, nor did his 81 wRC+ against lefties over the past three seasons, compared to 75 against righties. Read the rest of this entry »
When the Padres put Mason Miller on the paternity list ahead of NLDS Game 3, it always had to be this way. It’s like Chekhov’s gun; if you show me a missing closer in the first act, you must show me a late-inning situation where he’d normally appear in the final one. The Padres beat the Brewers 4-3 to stay alive, narrowing their NLDS deficit to 2-1, in what has been easily the most entertaining series of the divisional round.
Right from the jump, the Brewers put pressure on the Padres. And right from the jump, the Padres minimized the damage. Jackson Chourio tattooed a line drive to the deep part of the ballpark to open the game. In response, Jackson Merrill took off on a perfect line and slid across the warning track to corral it.
Nick Pivetta couldn’t throw the ball past anybody; Milwaukee swung 37 times at his pitches and missed only twice. The Brewers peppered line drives left and right, making frequent loud contact. But they got less for their troubles than you’d expect, because Pivetta beguiled them and his defense stood tall behind him. Read the rest of this entry »
Sunday night’s encore performance of the Ray Kerr Variety Hour felt like a turning point in this postseason. The Braves had not only survived the Chris Salebullpen fiasco, they were headed back home with the series tied and their two best starting pitchers lined up on full rest. The Dodgers have been on the ropes before during their back-to-back World Series-winning run, but those ropes felt especially menacing against Sale and the resurgent Braves.
Not to worry, Dodgers fans. Los Angeles escaped this crucible with a 3-1 win, and now sit one game from a third straight NLCS appearance. Regularly scheduled programming has resumed. Read the rest of this entry »
Major League Baseball is once again using the Arizona Fall League as a laboratory for potential rule changes at the major league level. In the past, the AFL has been a proving ground for rule alterations that have made their way to the top level of play, from the pitch timer, to limits on infield shifts, to the ABS challenge system; other initiatives, such as check swing challenges and fully automated balls and strikes, have previously been tested in Arizona but not implemented in the majors. This year, FanGraphs can report that the AFL is piloting new rules restricting defender positioning both on the infield (with the bases empty) and, perhaps more notably, in the outfield. Though MLB implemented restrictions on where infielders can play in 2023, this is the first time the league is piloting guard rails around where outfield defenders can be positioned when a pitch is thrown.
These restrictions first came to my attention during Monday’s game at Salt River Field, where Brendan Gawlowski and I noticed two things. First, Brendan noticed that the two teams’ corner outfielders were positioned both very close to the foul lines and much shallower than contemporary outfielders typically play. Of course, there are situations where a team might want to strategically align their outfielders like this, but for both teams to be doing so regardless of the hitter or game situation struck us as strange. Here is what that looked like on Monday:
Welcome to our Open Game Thread for the NLDS Game 3. Chat with fellow readers as we watch the Dodgers at the Braves and the Brewers at the Padres. Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual game chats, your messages will be posted immediately.
Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this is a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts. We might even have some FanGraphs Staff drop in and join the fun. Please be courteous to your fellow Members, or you may find your chat privileges revoked.
We are going to open the chat up at 5:30 PM ET.
si.or.no
What's the difference between a chat and a game thread? Is a game thread a no-moderation-queue chat?
Sean Dolinar
Correct, this is just an open game thread. So more casual. People can interact with each other rather than having staff facilitate everything. Less friction.
Paul
The MVP Yeti arrived last week. Looks great! Thank you and keep up the good work!
Sean Dolinar
Welcome everyone!
Bacterun
Wishing all a happy "hope the dodgers lose" day!
lzfreak
This is such a juicy pitching matchup! Feels like a game 1
Sean Dolinar
I gotta get some polls up!
Rich Hill's Fastball
The pitching matchup is so good that this game will definitely end 11-6
lzfreak
Thoughts on Ohtani batting 5th?
TKDC
Yeah, is that a “he’s not himself” thing or a “he’s not a good matchup with Sale” thing?
Rich Hill's Fastballedited
All the Sale discourse has people underrating the heck outta Yamamoto today
Bacterun
I voted for him to get pulled early….but thats more a hope than thinking he's not amazing. As a Jays fan i know all to well how he can take over a game
Bacterun
Don't expect it to change to much, but maybe he'll benefit from seeing a few batters worth of pitches before he goes to bat
Phil
Before checking just now I had no idea when this game started, or when the next one did, and these two start times would not have been in my top ten guesses. Definitely not staying up for the late game.
lzfreak
MLB's reluctance to have multiple playoff games on at once is annoying
Sean Dolinar
I don't get why CLE game started at 5PM yesterday and today's is 6PM. Dodgers being a West Coast team vs midwest teams? 🤷♂️
lzfreak
I think both games being pacific time is the difference
Jon Becker
Hi everyone!
Sean Dolinar
I still haven't put the 👋 emoji in yet!
Rich Hill's Fastball
Hi Jon!
lzfreak
Oh wait this is in Atlanta lol
Matt Martell
If Sale were a wide receiver, he would've gotten his foot down on the bag for the first out
Matt Martell
Also, hi
Jon Becker
Hi Matt!
Jon Becker
Sean hasn't added the 👋 emoji yet
Sean Dolinar
Someone submitted 4 PRs today that I need to review.
lzfreak
Kim paying homage to the Yankees defense
hamandcheese
Sure would rather have Jorge Mateo…
rhyde1990
Lets say the Rays and Dodgers ended up meeting in a 2020 rematch. Could the Rays style of play (lots of contact, small ball, etc) end up being a bad matchup for the Dodgers pitching (swing and miss stuff), or more of a repeat of how last year's WS turned out?
Rich Hill's Fastball
A factor here is that the Dodgers' fielding is generally much better than, to pick a random team, the Yankees'.
rhyde1990
I thought the same thing since the Dodgers IF ranked well in OAA this year, but so did the Yankees and then last night happened 😂
Jon Becker
Ohtani is certainly capable of taking ugly swings but goodness that was especially ugly
Matt Martell
Yes, I think, especially if Ohtani is broken
Jonathan Smith
That Sale arm angle and slider movement will break a man
Rich Hill's Fastball
Camera angle won't do hitters any favors tonight
Jon Becker
Looks beautiful in Atlanta and it is in fact 25 degrees colder there than it was in LA for Game 1, so everything is weird about this series so far
bosoxforlife
This has to be the best matchup, pitcher wise, in any Game 3 ever played.
Phil
Good mailbag question. Could be investigated with career WAR or same-year WAR, maybe.
Jon Becker
It's been DAYS since Matt asked me to do a mailbag question, I may have to look into this for this week
Matt Martell
@ me next time
Matt Martell
If you submit this as a question to mailbag@fangraphs.com, we'll answer it this week!
Jon Becker
That is a very emotional challenge from Acuña
bosoxforlife
Has anybody ever seen a left-handed hitter who was a good matchup for Sale? 6'6" from deep down. I would pull a Kruk and just head back to the dugout.
Jon Becker
Eric Hosmer absolutely owned him somehow, .346/.370/.538
Rich Hill's Fastball
Because Hosmer didn't use "analytics," Jon!
Jon Becker
Just cannot burn that with nobody on and one out in the first
hamandcheese
Acuna is awful at challenging.
Jonathan Smith
Not a good challenge there
bosoxforlife
What a ridiculous challenge!
Matt Martell
Bad challenge
Rich Hill's Fastball
Do we think Smith's glove movement could've impacted Acuña challenging there?
bosoxforlife
I will attempt to put together a coherent question.
rhyde1990
Great pitching matchups that come to mind for me in the last 25 or so years- Clemens vs Schilling, Beckett vs Pettite was pretty tight in 03, Lee vs Sabathia in 2009, Lincecum vs Lee a couple games, Lester vs Wainwright had a good duel if I remember correctly
RonaldRaygun
Randy Johnson faced Greg Maddux in 2001
rhyde1990
oh thats right Ronald, forgot about that
bosoxforlife
Please identify that breaking pitch that Sale throws. It has been called a slider for years but doesn't look like any slider, short quick break, that I have ever seen.
Rich Hill's Fastball
I dunno what to call it besides "filthy" (okay, maybe a slurve)
bosoxforlife
That fastball under the hands to righties is pretty tough to hit as well.
Phil
Pedro-Roger in the 99 ALCS was a game 3, now that think of it
bosoxforlife
Great catch! That does beat this and by quite a bit.
bohs and os
Why just casually toss it over to first the second time given the rules?
Jon Becker
Sale has the Goods tonight
Jon Becker
These are the insights your Membership fees pay for, folks
Rich Hill's Fastballedited
Credit to the Dodgers for at least running up the pitch count
lzfreak
What makes this particular game 3 matchup crazier for me is that it's the first series for the Dodgers. They're set up and Yamamoto is still only their third most trusted guy. Their rotation is absurd!
Matt Martell
The greatest miracle in sports is whenever anybody gets a hit off Chris Sale
bosoxforlife
I am beginning to think that when Sale's arm is attached he could be similar to the God of Arms, Nolan Ryan. Sale might pitch into his 40's.
Phil
Just take away his bicycle.
Jonathan Smith
Pumping 99 at that arm angle at 37 is just incredible.
lzfreak
He did miss quite a bit of time in his 30s. But this Atlanta chapter has been impressive
lzfreak
Smoltz: "That was a true sacrifice"
Ben Clemens
That was a sweet play by Yamamoto there. I mean, totally unnecessary and no added value. But man, fun to watch
Ben Clemens
How can he even get close to first with that setup? impressive
Rich Hill's Fastball
Harris had that stolen standing up, wow
bosoxforlife
The chats haven't mentioned the explosion in offensive bunting. I am of the opinion that as pitching continues to get tougher to hit we are going to see more and more attempts, but hopefully not pure sacrifices with a man on 1st
Rich Hill's Fastball
Bunting for a hit has always been a relatively smart gamble if the pitching is good enough. Sacrifices…not so much, and I think these playoffs have generally demonstrated that teams agree
fincampbell05
I imagine the run expectancy proposition from straight up sacrificing (runner on first, none out -> runner on second, one out) would get even worse as pitchers get better, right
lzfreak
Nice play by Dubon
bosoxforlife
Dubon is my choice for the most underappreciated player in the game today.
Sean Dolinar
I wish they wouldn't cut the ump cam in the middle of a pitch like that.
Ben Clemens
That was a super fun play by Dubon and I am really divided about how tough it was. Like, pretty tough! But surely not the best catch we've seen these playoffs. That low wall makes it hard for my brain. Because I'm like what a robbery
Ben Clemens
but actually the really hard part was getting there and absorbing the contact, not like he had to leap super high
lzfreak
This postseason has had more catcher's interference than expected
Jon Becker
Anyone else spot Baldy on Baldwin's chest protector? Not sure I'd love that nickname if I was him
TKDC
I think it’s a rule that every catcher’s nickname is just the first syllable of their first or last name plus a “y”
bosoxforlife
They must be taking lessons from Jacoby Ellsbury on how to induce catcher's interference.
Rich Hill's Fastball
If memory serves, Ohtani last reached on catcher's interference in game 5 of the '24 World Series
Antonio Bananas
How many pitches does Weiss give Sale? Lots of stress so far
Ben Clemens
I'm super interested in this!
Ben Clemens
I've had Sale on my mind a lot, what with writing about him and all. Feels like there are not a ton of moving parts to atlanta's strategy, but 'what do we do with Sale' is a massive and variable question
Rich Hill's Fastball
I feel like Weiss will push Sale a bit too far, whenever that is
trmackey
I feel like Sale will push himself further than Weiss will.
beanbong
Provided he doesnt start getting knocked around, I think you could see 110-115
beanbong
After the Freeman & Hernandez flyouts, kinda looks like they got the juiced ball in this one
lzfreak
That splitter is filthy
jzmaxson27
I feel like this is the sickest pitching matchup I have watched all year.
jzmaxson27
It's so rare that a highly billed on really lives up to the billing. But damn.
Antonio Bananas
These quick Yamamoto innings gotta be making Sale's stressful innings even worse right? No breaks
fincampbell05
Definitely but Sale is also a sicko
Antonio Bananas
He hasn't really been hit all that well which is encouraging. 3 infield hits
Antonio Bananas
Does Dubon make these plays at SS?
beanbong
I don't really understand what they're hoping to get out of Kim. What does he provide that someone like Jarvis doesn't other than standing in the right handed batters box
bosoxforlife
I have a very warm spot in my heart for Enrique Hernandez. His 2021 season with the Red Sox was something special and since I have no rooting interest I will enjoy his moment.
lzfreak
I guess we're doing October Enrique Hernandez again
Ben Clemens
Yamamoto is just DEALING. Was looking at Savant and this stat is kinda wild. He has 9 whiffs in 17 swings. Sale has 8 whiffs in 31 swings
Ben Clemens
And like, Sale looks sharp too!
Ben Clemens
worrisome stat for Sale, though: he's allowed 5 hard-hit balls so far, which is how many he allowed in his whole last start. Yamamoto has allowed zero, because jeez
Ben Clemens
er, six….
Rich Hill's Fastball
Can't rob that one!
Ben Clemens
I must not have been paying attention in previous Freeman visits to Atlanta but man, lot of booing!
Rich Hill's Fastball
Oh, this is new!
Ben Clemens
ah, well that explains it
TKDC
Did he say something? It’s weird. But at the same time this is the playoffs not the regular season.
Davy Andrewsedited
Hello, friends. How is playoff Erique possible? How is it possible?
lzfreak
I wonder if someone told him every day in the regular season that it's a playoff game if he'd be a Hall of Famer
Ben Clemens
like I guess I kind of remember it? But in my head it was kind of a mixed reaction, not this
lzfreak
Freeman was in quite a power outage before the playoffs. Seems to be back to normal now
Antonio Bananas
This feels insurmountable
trmackey
Well I think there's less curiosity on how deep Sale lasts now…
Phil
Davy, your article today has me looking to see if infielders are smelling the ball. I hope you're happy.
Davy Andrews
This makes me deeply happy. Honestly, that was some of the most fun writing I've done in a while and I stand by the idea one million percent.
Ben Clemens
Tough inning here for Sale, Weiss needs to start thinking about what to do. Last six hitters all put the ball in play:
103 mph grounder single xBA .380
94 mph liner out xBA .730
107 mph homer xBA .870
98 mph groundout xBA .230
103 mph homer xBA .580
108 mph lineout xBA .880
Davy Andrews
Ben, how are you doing?
Ben Clemens
I'm good. Getting all amped up for tonight's recap
Davy Andrews
You get amped? I get stressed.
Jon Becker
This has very quickly devolved from “alpha pitching duel” into “Sale is probably going to be out of the game after five innings trailing by multiple runs.” Gonna see a lot of The Raptor (Brent Suter) today, methinks
Davy Andrews
Hey Becker! I almost asked for your help coming up with puns for my article this morning. Did I blow it?
Jon Becker
I thought you did great 🙂
Davy Andrews
Oh, I just meant is that a particular skill of yours. Seems like it would be.
Sean Dolinar
We can wave now.
Matt Martell
Becker is FanGraphs' leading Pun-dit!
Matt Martell
Baumann doesn't count – there is no word to describe what he does
fincampbell05
I'm sure this is not a popular opinion, and I'm sure it's colored by anti-Dodgers sentiment, but I really don't like watching Yamamoto pitch. Something about these weak contact/BABIP merchant pitchers just grinds my gears. And his windup is weird too.
lzfreak
As a neutral fan I completely disagree
jzmaxson27
He says right before he blows a high 97 mph fastball by Albie's for his 7th K of the game.
bosoxforlife
I am the antithesis of you. I grew up watching Mel Parnell and Whitey Ford do exactly that and prefer that to today's TTO game.
fincampbell05
I mean yeah he's very good of course
Ben Clemens
Yeah I'm with you, @lzfreak. Yamamoto is one of my favorit pitchers to watch
Ben Clemens
In the same way that I love watching Soto hit
Ben Clemens
like probably my least favorite pitcher to watch, relative to skill, is Blake Snell
lzfreak
I used to be on the anti-Snell-watching train but last year's playoffs won me over. Felt like he was attacking the zone better and working quickly and effectively
MadMonk
as a Padres fan, the year he won the Cy Young with us, it was frustrating whenever he pitched, not enjoyable to watch.
Ben Clemens
and Yamamoto is kind of reverse Snell
Jon Becker
I still can’t really fathom how he can spin a curveball that beautiful from that arm slot
Antonio Bananas
With the infield hits, catchers interference, quick Yamamoto innings, all stressing Sale it's not a surprise he got hit hard.
Antonio Bananas
Was exhausting just watching those innings
Phillip Denny
how much longer does Kiké do this before we grudgingly admit that clutch *may* be a thing for *some* players?
Antonio Bananas
Or is he incredibly un-clutch the rest of the time?
Rich Hill's Fastball
fwiw, Kiké has discussed how his ADHD does negatively affect his focus during the regular season but helps him during the playoffs. Take that for what you will.
Phillip Denny
this may be a tomayto – tomahto situation tbh
lzfreak
I wonder if there's an inefficiency in sports psychology or something where a team could try to unlock value by getting guys to focus/perform at peak more often. Not sure what that looks like
Phil
I think it's well established that there is such a thing as clutch–it's just not predictive. Just because it's not predictive doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
fincampbell05
Yeah personally I really enjoy pitchers like Snell. Guys who look like they're launching grenades rather than pea-shooting, if that makes any sense. Just a random person-to-person thing I guess
Ben Clemens
100%. personal preference is why baseball is fun. if we all liked the same stuff, the sport would not grab me the same way
Phillip Denny
Man Shohei frequently gets spooked on the inside corner like that
Matt Martell
Hate to say it, but I agree with Smoltz there — bad challenge by Ohtani. Don't challenge in a 3-0 count with nobody on and your team up 3-0. Clearly an emotional challenge there
Antonio Bananas
I think he's pressing a bit because he's not hitting up to his standard. Same reason why Acuna challenged his IMO
TKDC
Ohtani and Acuna both made bad challenges on essentially the same pitch.
Phillip Denny
Shohei's plate knowledge up, down, and out are very good. Inside, it's very poor.
zapper
Best inning of the game for Sale. The Dodgers need to knock him out in the 6th and put that Braves' bullpen to work.
David
I will be curious to see the evolution of challenging pitches if it stays around for very long at all. The other night there was a pitch clock violation and, it happens so rarely now, I had nearly forgotten it was a thing.
zapper
Nice game by Dubon, stellar catch and now a leadoff single.
Rich Hill's Fastball
I haven't adjusted my emotional priors enough from 2021-2023. Austin Riley still terrifies me as an opponent.
Jon Becker
I really like Snitker using the Rowdy card here, Yamamoto has reverse splits but ultimately is great against everyone and Rowdy has a better chance of running into one
Jon Becker
Apologies to Walt Weiss, who is the actual manager of the Braves
Antonio Bananas
Rowdy Tellez looks like the bad guy Mets hitter from Rookie of the Year
Ben Clemens
Dubon for Nick Allen was a great trade for the Braves, huh? They basically won on both ends
Davy Andrews
Losing Nick Allen is never a good thing.
Ben Clemens
like, they got Allen's best year, then moved him at the high point
Anonymous Member #46
selling high =/= selling tall
cashgod27
If you're pinch-hitting HSK with a guy who has 11 PAs this year, why start him at all?
jzmaxson27
Man, really had that rowdy stinger locked and loaded.
Davy Andrewsedited
I love that Rowdy ended the year with a .506 xwOBA.
bosoxforlife
I missed the Braves moving Dom Smith for Rowdy Tellez.
Matt Martell
Of all people to walk
jonmberra
Surprised that wasn’t a double play.
zapper
So Yamamoto can speak more English now. The interpreter stayed in the dugout for that mound conference.
jonmberra
It would be funny if they weren’t talking and it was just stalling/rest move.
lzfreak
Maybe the pitching coach learned Japanese
zapper
Acuna left his playoff hits on the field for Venezuela during this year's Classic.
Jon Becker
A 3-1 perfectly placed splitter is just diabolical
Davy Andrews
Weird how diabolical is so much better a word than devilish.
Ben Clemens
One of my playoff resolutions was to be less annoyed by Smoltz. And for the most part, I think I've done it well. But I've been spiraling since he compared Ozzie Albies to Chipper Jones
Ben Clemens
Look, we know you don't know many players that aren't Braves. But can he be Terry Pendleton or something?
Anonymous Member #46
Mark Lemke with power
Ben Clemens
i mean, perfect
Ben Clemens
Chipper is 6'4"
lzfreak
One thing I haven't seen mentioned with all the Sale discourse: might he be in play for a potential game 5? It would be somewhat similar to the game 3 wildcard series move, but an inning or two from him in that scenario could be huge for the Braves
Rich Hill's Fastball
He'd definitely be available for this, yeah.
Antonio Bananas
I think the WC series is the plan moving forward. Start on 5 days rest and use his throwing day to put him in relief
Anonymous Member #46
I love how these chats feel like we're just running amok in the FanGraphs work Slack.
Sean Dolinar
Our Slack isn't typically this interesting.
Jon Becker
The most exciting our Slack gets is when Meg accidentally sends the main channel that she’s getting lunch and then she’ll get to Baumann’s piece, so we all get to ask what’s for lunch. Riveting stuff
Anonymous Member #46
Asking what's for lunch is a time-honored FanGraphs tradition.
bosoxforlife
I got the chicken and the veggies cut up for the between games stir fry and I will rejoin this very interesting chat.
ruddurball
I got my dan dan noodle prep done before first pitch. Hope your dinner is tasty!
Ben Clemens
dan dan noodle? tell me more
ruddurball
I use the recipe from kenji Lopez alt “the wok” but sub peanut butter for tahini becuase of a sesame allergy. Super fast and easy. They also suggest using capers instead of pickled mustard root and it works!
zapper
If the Dodger's have the lead in the 9th who will get the save opportunity, Diaz or "shaky lately" Tanner Scott?
jzmaxson27
Darkhorse option of Evan Phillips
Rich Hill's Fastball
This NLDS features two of the game's best organists.
Ben Clemens
I think I'd even be willing to say 'the game's best two organists'
lzfreak
Having been to all 30 parks, this was my take as well
bosoxforlife
I envy you. I have been to 67 ball parks with my passion for minor league ball.
Rich Hill's Fastball
Roberts is going to have some VERY interesting bullpen decisions coming up
lzfreak
Let Yamamoto go 9!
bosoxforlife
I upvote that!
zapper
Wow, no challenge.
Jeremy Fox
Is Matt Olson the highest-waisted player in baseball?
Anonymous Member #46
Sean Hjelle
Jeremy Fox
Sean Hjelle is long-limbed all the way round. Olson combines long legs with a (comparatively) short torso and short arms.
Ben Clemens
how about Carl Edwards Jr? or is his an optical illusion based on being so slender?
Jos
watching players do ABS calculus in real time is such a fun new aspect of baseball strategy
Antonio Bananas
How good are we at measuring the impact of challenges? Olson probably challenges that high strike and wins if Acuna hadn't wasted one
Neat
Very cool ump cam curveball
zapper
Do the umpires get told during the game about calls they missed that did not get challenged?
Jos
id imagine they get some kind of game report afterward breaking down all the calls rather than anything mid game
Davy Andrews
Yeah, postgame report. Also, you might recall that last year the league tightened up the buffer zone around the edge of the plate, which resulted in more strike calls.
beanbong
I’ve never seen a switch hitter change sides against the same pitcher in all my life.
Antonio Bananas
Freeman could have had 3 HRs this game as hard as he's hit them
Davy Andrews
I was just thinking of that line from Moneyball, when David Justice would come back to the dugout after hitting one as hard as he could and watching it die on the warning track: "That used to be gone."
Antonio Bananas
If you could add 20 minutes of that movie to cover Hudson/Zito/Mulder, who do you cast?
Davy Andrews
This is a Matt question if I've ever heard oe, so I'll just say Andy Serkis for all three.
Matt Martell
I like the idea of casting one person as all three, because they were so inconsequential to the season that they might as well all be the same person — in the eyes of the filmmakers anyway
Keaton Arneson
They also ignored Chavez and Tejada… So their 5 best players. And Lidle by WAR
Matt Martell
Back to FanGraphs Slack for a moment… Here's a real thing Baumann asked me two weeks ago: "Do you think you and I talk about Bulworth more than any two coworkers in the world, or do we just talk about Bulworth more than any two people in the BBWAA?"
Davy Andrews
I have never seen that movie, but in ninth grade, when the JV basketball team went to preseason camp, my friend Justin and I roomed together and he brought the soundtrack. He played Ghetto Superstar on repeat for the entire week.
Matt Martell
Great news, Davy – I just bought the DVD on eBay. Come over and watch it during the offseason
Davy Andrewsedited
Is it…good? Isn't there a part where Warren Beatty raps? Am I thinking of the right movie?
Sean Dolinar
Slightly late to this. We had Sale at 5.65 for innings pitch…so 5.2 IP in our written convent. And he pitched 5.0 IP.
Sean Dolinar
Median 6 IP. The 5.65 was the average.
Davy Andrews
Smart chat.
Matt Martell
You are thinking of the right movie. And it is good! It's absolutely bonkers, but good!
Jonathan Smith
I know they set this up for the CS but Yama as your number 3 is just downright disgusting. This guy is an ace of all aces.
jzmaxson27
I feel like there is a legitimate argument to be made that he is the most important player to them during this run of back to back titles and the attempt for the third.
lzfreak
Oh yeah they definitely don't win it without him last year
Jonathan Smith
And if I recall he struggled early on in his first year? What a massive payoff for him to be this strong.
Michael Baumann
Hi guys, heard you were talking about Bulworth
Davy Andrews
I just laughed so hard.
Matt Martell
If you command+F "Bulworth" in my Slack messages with Baumann, you get 14 hits
Michael Baumannedited
I'm shocked it's not five times as many
zapperedited
Yamamoto starts the 8th to deal with the nine hole pinch hitter and Vesia comes in for Baldwin.
Matt Martell
Guys… Bulworth features an original score by Ennio Morricone!!!
zapper
Guess not with all the hand slapping in the dugout.
Michael Baumann
Gotta run. I just took out a hit on myself so my daughter can collect on my life insurance policy.
jzmaxson27
I figured with your article titles you were already living a life unencumbered by focus groups and handlers. I'm excited to see where it all goes from here!
Matt Martell
Well done
Rich Hill's Fastballedited
Organist honoring Mii-guel Rojas 🙂
Matt Martell
^This is a Bulworth reference for those of you who haven't had the pleasure of seeing it yet
David
My (disingenuous) pet theory on Ohtani's poor second half is that he had a second kid in June and is just not sleeping well at all with the adjustment. Ask me how I know.
Davy Andrews
Has anybody on staff seen The Rock 150 times or so? Would be nice to have someone to talk to about that particular movie.
jzmaxson27
It is the best Bruckheimer movie. Honorable mention to Con Air of course.
Matt Martell
Put some respect on THIEF
Davy Andrews
Oh, I have been meaning to see that!
Matt Martell
I also own Thief! We can do a Bulworth/Thief double feature!
jzmaxson27
Guess I've got an addition to my watch list!
Davy Andrews
This sounds fun, but the whiskey taste test has to come first. Also, I have been informed by an interested party that it needs to be at your apartment.
Matt Martell
Whiskey taste test DURING the Thief/Bulworth double feature!
Davy Andrews
No way. The taste test is a serious work assignment.
Davy Andrews
Which we should probably get on the calendar, actually.
Matt Martell
Wow this has really turned into FG Slack
Phil
I just saw Longenhagen's piece about restricting outfield positioning in the AFL. Sounds very fishy to me (I don't mean Eric's reporting, I mean the idea reported on). Might not teams want outfielders to work on their defense, inckuding pre-pitch positioning, in Arizona?
Matt Martell
Teams might want to, but MLB views the AFL as a low stakes place to try stuff out. That is more important to the powers that be than whether minor league outfielders can correctly read a card telling them where to play.
Doug Gray
This is probably why they are only doing it in one stadium (this year). It's 14 games unless I counted wrong. The Salt River guys will get a little less "normal" outfield work, though.
Phil
Yeah. But then I also wonder whether that's enough games to see if it has an effect. But I guess it's nore of a heck, why not move than a carefully developed experiment.
Ben Clemens
Davy I make a decent number of The Rock references. But my wife has somehow not seen it even though we live in SF. It's a travesty
Davy Andrews
My wife fell asleep while watching it, and it hurt my soul.
Davy Andrews
She also fell asleep during Raiders of the Lost Ark, and I have an amazing cell phone video of her snoozing peacefully on the couch while John Williams' thrilling Indiana Jones score blares in the background.
Matt Martell
I know he has played in four MLB seasons, but I refuse to believe Brewer Hicklen is a real player
zapper
Don't let Hicklen on, 70 speed.
Ben Clemens
I mainly remember Hicklen because when we did the crowdsourced OOTP Brewers in 2020, I traded for everyone with Brewer in their name: Brewer Hicklen and Colten Brewer
Phil
I just realized Hicklen was in fact a Brewer. . . for 5 PAs in 2024.
Rich Hill's Fastballedited
Who faces the Olson-Albies-Harris corridor in the ninth? Ideally that'd be Scott so I'm surprised he's being deployed here. Edit: meant to submit this at the start of the inning.
lzfreak
We getting Diaz in the 9th?
Yer Main Guy
Why can't position players just stand where they wanna stand, Manfred?
Rich Hill's Fastball
For those unaware, Mason Miller was just placed on the paternity list
Rich Hill's Fastball
His Padres play an elimination game in half an hour
Keaton Arneson
I know why teams put in their best relievers when losing a close game, but at what point is letting a team see that reliever over and over in a series a hindrance?
Phil
There's a name for this but I can't remember what it is
Phil
Familiarity penalty, I guess. Discussed in an Effectively Wild episode, looks like (and which I vaguely remember).
Davy Andrews
Yeah, there have been some SABR Research Journal articles about it as well.
jzmaxson27
Should have challenged that one right?
Rich Hill's Fastball
Down 0-2 in the count, with one challenge left, you have to be DAMN sure you're right
bosoxforlife
But if the game went extra innings the Dodgers would get another challenge so he should have used it.
zapper
The Braves' pen owns the Dodgers.
Davy Andrews
Austin Wells would have stretched that into a triple.
Phil
Not dead yet.
Matt Martell
Maybe Ozzie Albies actually is Chipper Jones!
bosoxforlife
Diaz has been good (okay?) recently but I see this a risky move by Roberts.
lzfreak
How do the Dodgers always spend like 9 figures on the bullpen and come October nobody is trustworthy
Rich Hill's Fastball
I choose to watch (and love) the Moneyball movie as a piece of narrative art, not a documentary
bosoxforlife
I would trust Yamamoto in this spot.
lzfreak
Wonder if Kershaw is available for a token high leverage relief inning
Rich Hill's Fastball
Glasnow vs Mahle tomorrow!
bosoxforlife
The wok is hot and I will be back for the Brewers-Padres.
Ben Clemens
I ran off for a bit to set up for the next game. And to keep with my bit of criticizing the bad television personalities, did everyone else hear Derek Jeter bragging about how he 'told everyone about Yamamoto'? Oh, you mean the freaking world series MVP and one of the best pitchers in the world?
Ben Clemens
I like pizza. I don't go around yelling "I told you about pizza, don't act like I didn't" to people. Because, like, yeah.
Sean Dolinar
I have a friend who brags about their skill at finding pizza.
Ben Clemens
like, a specific pizza place? Because I think I'd accept 'i told you about yamamoto's ability to land a split for a strike' or something similar
Davy Andrews
Hey Jack!
Ben Clemens
or like, just their incredible food knowledge that pizza is good?
Ben Clemens
that said – hey, being compared to Derek Jeter isn't the worst thing in the world
Sean Dolinar
Not something specific. Though it tends to be Neapolitan/wood fire type pizza. Not like hole-in-the-wall finds.
Sean Dolinar
I had another friend that wanted to go to all the VPN-certified pizzerias she could find. One was near me. I went it and it was delightful.
Jack Dorfman
VPN-certified?
Jack Dorfman
Googled it, that seems like a good way to find new spots
Davy Andrews
Hey Jack! (This time in the right place.)
Jack Dorfman
Haha hey Davy!
bosoxforlife
Lunch tomorrow with my friend of 56 years will be at our favorite pizzaria. Great thin crust after a bowl of the best pasta fagioli I have found in my extensive travels.
Sean Dolinar
I should have added the pizza emoji too.
Davy Andrews
Everybody in this booth looks like their mom combed their hair for them on picture day.
MattStats5
Freddie Freeman just sealed his future as a studio analyst….helluva postgame interview.
Jack Dorfman
Excited for Playoff Piv feel like he'll come out chucking
lzfreak
So how should the Padres approach the lack of Miller here? Lean extra hard on Morejon and Rodriguez? Get weird with a starter in relief?
MattStats5
I get the paternity list thing, but now? Your team is facing elimination…tough decision, for sure.
Davy Andrews
Easy decision. Only decision.
lzfreak
Is anyone else bothered by how Amin pronounces "Contreras?" Sounds like he's saying "Contrerez"
Davy Andrews
Ok, yeah, I hear that.
bosoxforlife
Pivetta always frustrated me during his 5 years with the Red Sox. He always looked like he would do what he has shown with the Padres.
Davy Andrews
Yeah, how many Positional Power Rankings talked about his stuff versus his results?
lzfreak
Exciting Jackson play
Jack Dorfman
That did not feel like it was going to get caught wow
Sean Dolinar
I thought that was going to drop. He almost overran that too!
Davy Andrewsedited
Can't believe he held onto it given where it hit his glove.
bosoxforlife
Bauers isn't a contender for Comeback of the Year because he never was anything but he is a contender for biggest surprise of the year.
Jack Dorfman
Does Bryan Baker win AL Surprise of the Year?
bosoxforlife
He is on the ballot.
Brendan Smith
William Contreras being 28 and in the league for 7 seasons is shocking. Equally shocking is his 18.1 career bWAR. Quietly a top 5 catcher in the league consistently
bosoxforlife
He was #1 on the MLB position rankings at least once. I know I would like him to join his brother on the Red Sox.
war2d2
On the “bad broadcasters” topic: this booth. Pierzynski and Wainwright make me wish I wasn’t a baseball fan. Absolute tire fire.
lzfreak
Oh wow the Padres are batting an actual good major league hitter second in their lineup!
lzfreak
Is it just me or does Dustin May look leaner than the last time I saw him?
bosoxforlife
Who is surprised that the Brewers chose May over Harrison?
Jon Becker
Hopping back in quickly to say that’s the worst challenge of the year I think
Jon Becker
Now back to my snack of saltines, which are genuinely good even when not sick. No further questions
Davy Andrews
I finished the Saltines last night.
Davy Andrews
Though I was slathering them in sweetened hazelnut butter.
David
This is definitely the correct take
war2d2
The Nabisco mini-saltines are wonderful. Like un-cheesed Cheez-its.
war2d2
“I’m here to chew bubblegum and make terrible ABS challenges, and I’m fresh out of bubblegum.” — William Contreras
Brendan Smith
Dustin May 100!!!!
Davy Andrews
Must have killed Contreras not to challenge that one.
war2d2
Someone reminded him that the dugout is full of bubblegum. Literally littered with it.
bosoxforlife
It has been discussed so many times but what are these players thinking with these meaningless challenges. Are the coaches to blame?
Davy Andrews
I suspect there's a real concern about getting them too in their heads here. You want them to be aggressive, and you don't want them thinking about challenges when they're supposed to be hitting or catching. It's important, but not as important as driving the baseball or calling a good game!
Brendan Smith
Does Ty France Comeback Player of the Year count if he was coming back from mid?
Phil
The definition of a comeback should be the new controversy to replace the definition of a breakout. How good do you once have to have been to have a comeback?
war2d2
Man, Pivetta’s throwing some real wiffleball curves.
Jacob Richey
Brewers doing a great job working the count. Bauers and Turang both struck out but on 9+ pitches each. What’s Pivetta’s expected pitch count? can’t imagine it’s high given coming back from injury.
Davy Andrews
He hit 87 in the start before last, so it might be fairly high if he's dealing.
bosoxforlife
Another challenge in a low leverage situation. ????? What is going on with these guys?
Davy Andrews
What a bummer that pitching coach Chris Hook never gets to be the one to take out the pitcher.
lzfreak
My favorite was when Craig Counsell was the Brewers manager. You'd have Hook out to give council then Counsell would come with the hook.
war2d2
God willing he’ll aspire to managing, and then score one for nominative determinism
bosoxforlife
Which contract is a worse albatross, Bogaerts or Riley?
jzmaxson27
Depends on which owner is more spending averse.
Jacob Richey
ZIPS 3 yr projections still like Riley… or at least don’t factor in this year. Think Bogaerts contract is worse. More money, more years remaining, bogaerts is older, and decline to sub 2 WAR projected pretty quickly.
lzfreak
Murphy with the hilarious sound bite there
jzmaxson27
🤣🤣🤣
Jon Becker
Just have Murphy call the game
Davy Andrews
This is why he's manager of the year every year.
lzfreak
Is he gonna win it a third straight year? I'm not sure who else you'd give it to
jzmaxson27
Every now and then we get rewarded for having the sound on.
Jon Becker
Nothing against this booth, which I like, I just think they'd rather he call the game too
Jack Dorfman
Playoff game in Petco going on my bucket list
Jack Dorfman
atmosphere is so consistently fantastic
jzmaxson27
I guess the bunt paid off? I still don't like it.
bosoxforlife
It isn't luck that the Brewers and Guardians exceed their projections every year and often by a large amount. Vogt and Murphy haven't missed the playoffs yet. Why these teams mystify all the projection systems is impossible to quantify and it has to come down to something these managers understand that only a few have ever figured out.
This is historically where May starts tilting. But he seems like he has kept his cool a little better this year than years past
Jon Becker
May just jumped about eight feet in the air
jzmaxson27
He for sure thought it was gone off the bat.
Jack Dorfman
was going to say may must have a 50 inch vertical haha
bosoxforlife
Already down to 37 here in central CT. Time to bid adieu to my tomatoes. I will NOT waste my hard earned money on those red baseballs sold in a store.
Jack Dorfman
Looked like Salas tried to fake him out inside, set up away, then the pitch hung inside
jzmaxson27
Can only throw 92 down the pipe so many times Pivetta.
war2d2
This is dumb, right? I can’t be the only one who thinks this is dumb.
bosoxforlife
Davy, I dumped Prospectus when I found Fangraphs so the article is hidden to me. The system must be more important than the people or the Mets wouldn't be the laughingstocks they were this year with David Stearns, who got all the credit, at the helm. I strongly believe there are managers who instinctively know when and where to put the players in the best spots to maximize their production much more efficiently than computers. The Red Sox players, in their postmortem, appeared to almost have a mutiny over what they saw as the excessive use of computers in decision making.
lzfreak
Whoa that was ballsy
jzmaxson27
Exciting stuff!
Benny The Jet
Wow
bosoxforlife
Sending the runner on such a short fly ball is just what I was saying and is part of the reason the Brewers win. I don't think many 3rd base coaches would have sent Pratt. As a group 3rd base coaches are afraid of being seen as the man who sent the runner if he was thrown out
Antonio Bananas
Is PetCo the best of the corporate-named ballparks?
Antonio Bananas
By name I mean
Philedited
The problem with "best" is that there's a certain pleasure to be taken in the confusion of a bad one. In this regard the newly renamed Fifth Third Field (edit: it's actually Fifth Third Park) in Detroit should be a lot of fun, since it does not remotely sound like a meaningful three-word sequence.
Jack Dorfman
Used to love Safeco and Miller, Petco up there with Busch and Citizen's bank maybe?
Benny The Jet
Coors is good, plus the corporations who happened to be named pleasant sounding ballpark names like American Family Field and Great American Ballpark
asf123
Wrigley 😜
Phil
I was disappointed to realize that Great American is insurance. For some reason I was absolutely sure it was a hot dog brand, which would be much better and funnier.
Jack Dorfman
OFs playing deep stealing doubles
Jack Dorfman
Reminds me of Ben's barrels article from the summer, wonder if that's even more true in the yoffs
Ben Schneider
Joining now, what I've seen of the last couple innings has been a fun, tense game
Phil
This whole series has been like that.
Benny The Jet
We need 5 games of this series
antihustle
Absolutely
Ben Schneider
No one likes a parade of pitching changes, but they're more tolerable when both teams have a lot of electric guys coming in
Alan Sherman
reading the chat well behind, but I think the best corporate ballpark name was the original Arizona one. I think it was Bank One Ballpark and we got to just call it "the Bob"
David
Yeah, the local nicknames are where it's at. I thought "The Juice Box" was great in Houston.
Alan Sherman
Not just a local nickname, I called it the Bob as a Bay Area Giants fan
Alan Sherman
Also jokingly called the Coliseum "the Virus" in the years that McAfee had the naming rights
Phil
I spend a lot of time in Chicago for work–no one I know there bothers to learn the ever-changing name of the ballpark on the South Side. "Sox Park" is common (which also reflects the CTA's abbreviation for maps and schedules, which is just "Sox"), as is, naturally, "Comiskey."
Ben Schneider
I just read Eric's new article and now I'm thinking how that batted ball would be a boring routine out
Pedantic A-hole
Do you think that Cooper Pratt paid to have someone do that to his hair?
Antonio Bananas
Does PetCo have a local nickname?
Alan Sherman
I lived in San Diego for 8 years in college and after and I never heard one from other residents or at a couple of games a season
Alan Sherman
the radio announcer would often say "from the gaslamp quarter" but that's the neighborhood not the ballpark and obviously he's required to use the corporate name
Ben Schneider
Chisholm should learn from Turang there
Alan Sherman
If we could all learn second base defense from Turang, the world would be a better place
Jack Dorfman
Michael king in the game to close it down is fun
antihustle
Why is King so likeable
Ben Schneider
That looked like a swing to me
Antonio Bananas
We know Miller not being available hurts the Padres chance of winning. We know he did a thing about 9 months ago. Knowing those 2 things, what's the negative WPA of that thing he did 9 months ago?
Anonymous Member #46
Would be hilarious for the Padres to lose because of their closer's daddy issue.
Sean Dolinar
I like how wild these chats get after midnight.
showbusiness77
Yankees fan sad career of King traded for one year of Soto. Although if we would've won the dance, would've felt a BIT differently. Hindsight
showbusiness77
Why King used though? no tomorrow. Maybe treating it like a bullpen session. Would still be available for game X?
jms4
my king, Mike King
Ben Schneider
I think King will pitch in Game 5 on short rest if they get that far
Pedantic A-hole
Is Lara running?
Ben Schneider
Yes
fishnchips
Wowowowow
antihustle
So that's what defense should be like
Jack Dorfman
A great series
Jack Dorfman
ray and musgrove piggybacking tomorrow?
Pedantic A-hole
What a great ballgame! And series. Hope we get a game 5
Biscuit
What was the velocity on that last hit from Yelich?
Do you ever stop and think about how baseball would be different if the ball smelled delicious? Imagine that Major League Baseball, in its never-ending quest to abase itself for sponsorship dollars, forges an innovative partnership with Willy Wonka. In exchange for the title of Official Chocolate of Major League Baseball and the right to outfit the umpires in his trademark violet velvet coats, the eccentric chocolatier uses his quasi-supernatural confectionary gifts to impart one of several dozen mouthwatering aromas to each and every baseball used in a game. This baseball smells like warm chocolate chip cookies, the next one like toasted marshmallows, and the one after that like snozzberries. You get the idea.
Now imagine you’re pitching in the World Series. The umpire reaches into the pouch that dangles from their belt (but awkwardly, because they first have to flap the side of their knee-length velvet coat out of the way), grabs a new pill, and fires it out to you. Millions of eyes are on you. The game is on the line. The season is on the line. You’d still raise the ball up to your face for a whiff before you got settled on the mound, right? You’d have to. Would you really be able to go without smelling the ball? You know it smells amazing, but you don’t know how. If you didn’t sniff the ball, wouldn’t the curiosity about its scent be so distracting as to have a deleterious effect on your ability to pitch? Could you really say you’re putting your all into each pitch if you’re not acquainting yourself as fully as possible with the one and only tool of your trade?
I imagine that sniffing the ball would be something of a flex for infielders. Those who gloved a grounder with time to spare would earn the right to take a healthy waft before firing it over to first. I further conjecture that throwing the ball around the horn after a strikeout would take longer because the outfielders would insist on being included too. More importantly, I imagine that the error rate might tick down just the slightest bit. I’m not saying that major league fielders lack motivation to hold onto the ball as things stand right now, but I hardly think it would hurt to supply them with an additional reason to give it their all. Letting a ball go right through your legs feels terrible, but it probably feels just a little bit worse when you know that along with hurting your team, you’ve fumbled away a transportive sensorial experience. Maybe that would push you to take that extra round of infield practice, to lock in on every single pitch, to lay out for that ball. Anyway, that’s what I was thinking about in the shower this morning as I reflected on the fact that last night, in the biggest game of the season, the New York Yankees played as if the ball smelled like a butt. Read the rest of this entry »
Last week, we tried a few Member-only gamethreads on the site. They were pretty well received, so we’re going to host them each day of the postseason going forward. Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this is a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts.
