FanGraphs Baseball

At least nine times during the 2026 season, a replay review overturned a hit-by-pitch. It may well have happened more often, but I found nine pitches that went down as foul balls because the umpire awarded the batter first base after an apparent hit-by-pitch, only for the defending team to successfully challenge that the ball hit the bat instead. Once every two or three weeks, a batter grabbed his hand and exclaimed, “Ye gods, I’ve been struck!”

Only for the catcher to arise and reply, “I’ll prove the contrary, thou subtle, perjured, false, disloyal man! Thy club’s the thing withstood th’ offending sphere.”

At which point the Mattress Firm Supermo replay intoned with just the right level of firmness, “Forsooth, this catcher is the messenger of truth.”

And the umpire had no choice but to swallow his pride and announce to the fans, “Lo, through the proof of the Mattress Firm Supermo replay I see how I’m hoodwink’d. Behold my fingers three.”

These may not be exact quotes, but you get the point. It’s not particularly rare for a hit-by-pitch to get overturned. However, during the 2026 season, I was hoping that we’d see one particular variety of hit-by-pitch get overturned. It is my favorite kind of hit-by-pitch, which I now realize seems like a weird thing to say. To be clear, I’m not in favor of people getting hit by pitches. However, as long as people are getting hit by pitches, I prefer for it to happen in a way that doesn’t involve injuries but instead involves some element of silliness. For example, this ball that hit Joey Votto in 2022 has a lot going for it. The first is the eloquence with which Votto expressed his feelings about getting hit, so please turn your volume up. Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve decided that my guy in this free agent class is left-handed pitcher Adrian Morejon. Ben Clemens ranked him eighth on the top 50 free agent list, and predicted that he’d get $72 million over three years. Our readers came to a median estimate of $64 million over four years.

I think they’re out of their minds. Me? I would’ve had Morejon no lower than fifth in this caffeine free Diet Pepsi of a free agent class, perhaps as high as third. I’d give Morejon $100 million over five years without blinking.

I don’t get the sense that I’m sticking my neck out too far by saying this; someone’s going to pay over the odds for this non-closer reliever because they think they can translate his upper-90s velocity and elite groundball rate to the rotation. Morejon got four or more outs in 25 of his 78 regular-season appearances in 2026, and he has the elite changeup that conventional wisdom requires from a lefty starter.

But I don’t want Morejon to start. I’ve got something better in mind. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about who started the “Nerds!” chant at the Brewers championship parade and a pair of POBOs who appear to be sneaky-jacked, plus the Mariners’ new manager, MLB’s cap quasi-concession, and whether an MLB player will issue a Wemby-esque statement about not sponsoring certain products. Then (54:14) they conduct the 12th annual free agent contract over/under draft.

Audio intro: Ian H., “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Moon Hound, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to DeRosa/Arnold video
Link to Arnold lifting trophy
Link to Antonetti photo
Link to Nichols Law of Catcher Defense
Link to Grantland swoll post
Link to Dipoto ditty (short)
Link to Dipoto ditty (long)
Link to Kander wiki
Link to Kanzler wiki
Link to Kanzler press conference
Link to Lookout Landing on Kanzler
Link to Dipoto experience comments
Link to Kanzler interviews story
Link to Swanson report
Link to Swanson on EW
Link to MLB cap proposal
Link to Drellich on Trump
Link to Trump’s cap comments
Link to Trump’s “rear” comments
Link to “pussyfoot” etymology
Link to Bloomberg on spokespeople
Link to Wemby comments
Link to Acuña Jr. sponsorship
Link to EWStats site
Link to EW wiki draft record
Link to MLBTR Top 50 list
Link to Bednar demotion
Link to 2024-26 hitter WAR
Link to 2026 RP WAR

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Even though the offseason has technically begun, we’re currently in the lull between the end of the World Series and the real start of hot stove season. Teams are just about done with the annual housekeeping necessary to prepare their rosters for the winter, but the big moves are still on the horizon and the owner’s lockout is looming. That means it’s as good a time as any to take stock of how each team measures up.

The rankings below present each team as they are currently constructed, based on our Depth Charts playing time projections. This should give us a pretty good idea of which teams would be ready to compete if the 2027 season started today, and which teams have a lot of work ahead of them this offseason. I’ll start with teams projected to finish below .500, and then will have the top half of the rankings later this week.

Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. For these offseason rankings, I’ve pulled the Depth Charts projections and calculated an implied Elo ranking for each team. Our projections are entirely powered by the 2027 Steamer projections right now; the ZiPS projections will be added later on in the offseason. The delta column in the full rankings below shows the change in ranking from the final regular season run of the power rankings.

Read the rest of this entry »

This post is part of a series covering the 2027 Contemporary Baseball Era Committee Managers/Umpires/Executives ballot, which includes candidates in those categories who made their greatest impact from 1980 to the present. You’ll find an introduction to the ballot here. The eight candidates will be voted on in San Diego on December 6, and anyone receiving at least 75% of the vote from the 16 committee members will be inducted in Cooperstown on July 25, 2027 along with any candidates elected by the BBWAA.

Joe Maddon was the right manager at the right time more than once. A former minor league catcher who never reached the majors as a player, and who spent over three decades in various capacities within the Angels’ organization, Maddon didn’t get his first major league managerial job until he was 52 years old. As part of a new regime that took over a Tampa Bay team that had never won more than 70 games in the franchise’s eight-year history, Maddon clicked with a cutting-edge front office and helped mold a young squad into an American League powerhouse seemingly overnight. The Devil Rays won 66 games in 2007, Maddon’s second season, then — after a nominal exorcism that made them the Rays — 97 games and the AL pennant in ’08 before losing to the Phillies in the World Series.

Maddon led the Rays — a team that generally ranked near the bottom of the league in both attendance and payroll — to the playoffs four times in a six-season span from 2008–13, winning AL Manager of the Year honors twice. With his horn-rimmed glasses, his varied interests beyond baseball, and his understanding of statistical analysis, he emerged as an icon, a hip and literate nerd who could lead the game’s Davids into battle with Goliaths, or just recommend a nice merlot. From a 2008 Sports Illustrated profile by Stephen Cannella:

Maddon is a voracious reader who keeps a wine rack in his Tropicana Field office, bikes five to 10 miles most days and can hold forth on a seemingly endless array of topics: James Michener novels, gardening, self-help psychology and the best cycling routes in every American League city, for starters. On an off night in New York City before a crucial September series against the Yankees, Maddon planned not an evening of tinkering with lineups or poring over scouting reports, but of rocking out at a show by the B Street Band, a Springsteen cover band fronted by an old friend from high school. And he keeps things light enough that his team, the sixth youngest in the majors this season, sometimes forgets that the silver-haired man on the top step of the dugout is 54. Name another manager who has gotten a Mohawk after a game, as Maddon did last month when his players were getting shorn in a show of team unity. “He has the personality of a teenager,” says 24-year-old rotation ace Scott Kazmir. “He fits in well with us.”

Read the rest of this entry »

Cooper Pratt was one of the revelations of the Brewers’ run to the World Series. He hit .354 overall and .421 in the Fall Classic itself, with hits that gave the Brewers the lead in Games 2, 4, and 5. His WPA was the third highest in World Series history for a player aged 22 or younger.

All that, in concert with the eight-year contract Pratt signed before he even made his big league debut, would seem to indicate that the precocious Mississippian is Milwaukee’s shortstop of the future. Perhaps even the far future; a little motivated reasoning and you can get to Pratt being Middle America’s 1996 Derek Jeter.

Except, having seen the best two weeks of Pratt’s life up close, I’m still not completely sure where he fits in the Brewers’ long-term plans. Let’s get dialectical about it. Read the rest of this entry »

Samy Natera pitched for Mexico in this year’s World Baseball Classic, and he followed that up by having a stellar rookie campaign with the Los Angeles Angels. The recently-turned-27-year-old southpaw registered a 3.13 ERA, a 1.90 FIP, and a 36.6% strikeout rate over 28 appearances comprising 31-and-two-thirds innings with the AL West club. He was credited with three saves, and was also charged with a pair of defeats.

The Ciudad Juarez, Mexico native entered the season ranked just 21st in what was then described as a below-average Angels farm system — although his scouting report did suggest promise. With a caveat that he is “wild and inconsistent,” Brendan Gawlowski stated that Natera “sits in the mid-90s and touches 97 with his fastball, a pitch that also has 19 inches of vertical break. He pairs it with an above-average slider that flashes plus, and both offerings miss bats.”

Natera reined in his control upon reaching The Show. He’d logged a 16.9% walk rate over 57 minor-league frames in 2025, and he began this past season by walking Triple-A batters at a 14.1% clip. With the Angels — this after making his MLB debut in early June — that percentage was a stingier 9.9%.

I asked him about the improvement back in mid-September.

“There is a difference between here and the minor leagues,” said Natera, whom the Halos selected in the 17th round of the 2022 draft out of New Mexico State University, “In the minors you’re trying to prove something; here it’s about winning. My mindset shifted to just thinking about helping the team win, and that really made me attack hitters. It changed my approach on how to pitch.”

The impetus to that approach predated his arrival in Anaheim. The seeds were planted in the WBC, where his teammates included an All-Star closer who has saved 66 games for the Seattle Mariners over the previous two seasons. Read the rest of this entry »

The first full week of the offseason has already come and gone, with qualifying offers extended, options exercised or declined, and several waiver claims and minor transactions made. The front office carousel also got underway, with the A’s hiring Taylor Smith as their president of baseball operations and Cam Castro as their general manager, the Orioles hiring Jared Banner as their general manager under president of baseball operations Mike Elias, the Astros hiring Randy Flores to be their GM, and the Cardinals promoting Rob Cerfolio to be their GM under president of baseball ops Chaim Bloom.

In other news, the Nationals and center fielder Jacob Young agreed to a four-year, $23 million extension, the first multi-year deal of the offseason. Young, 27, was set to hit free agency after the 2029 season, so this keeps him around for one more year at a $5.75 million AAV, with an $8 million club option for 2031. It’s a deal that makes sense for both sides; Young gets more guaranteed money up front during his arbitration years, while the Nationals get a high-floor center fielder at a set cost and at a time when the financial structures of the sport are subject to change during the upcoming collective bargaining agreement negotiations. I expect there will be a flurry of other extensions over the next three-plus weeks, as teams and players look for some long-term security before the current CBA expires and the lockout begins. It’s also likely that at least a few of our top 50 free agents will sign before then, as they look for certainty heading into what could be a long layoff. That’s what happened five years ago, when the Rangers signed both Corey Seager and Marcus Semien to large, long-term deals, the Tigers signed Javier Báez for six years and $140 million, and the Mets added Max Scherzer for three years and $130 million, a lucrative $43.3 million AAV.

We’ll talk a little bit more about contract terms later in this mailbag when we discuss mutual options. We’ll also answer your questions on where special neutral-site games should be played in states without major league teams, book recommendations to learn about analytics, and how ZiPS determines its postseason odds. But first, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

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With Meg Rowley sidelined by an ill-timed landscapers visit, Ben Lindbergh brings on two great guests. First, Japanese baseball expert Yuri Karasawa (aka Yakyu Cosmopolitan) joins to talk about the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks dynasty, whether the Hawks’ success has induced a Dodgers-esque backlash or desire for a salary cap, NPB’s adoption of the pitch clock and universal DH, the league’s partial offensive bounceback, Yuri’s MLB expectations for Teruaki Sato, Kaima Taira, and Hiromi Itoh, whether Japanese fans are frustrated by the departures of so many NPB stars, whether losing top amateur talents such as Shoki Oda poses an existential threat to Japanese pro ball, how to follow NPB from afar, and more. Then (1:03:39) Ben welcomes Michael McClellan, newly promoted director of analytics for the Rockies, to talk about leaving the Rays for the Rockies, how the Rockies can catch up to earlier data adopters, how to handle Coors Field, quantifying pitch-calling, what teams are looking for in applicants, how teams are (and aren’t) using AI, and more.

Audio intro: Liz Panella, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio interstitial: Jonathan Crymes, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Nate Emerson, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to latest Hawks victory clip
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Link to Nogami signing post
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Link to EW Episode 1236
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Link to Ben on Mexico City
Link to EW Episode 2472
Link to Ben on the Rockies
Link to The Athletic on DePo
Link to ESPN on DePo
Link to hangover effect article 1
Link to hangover effect article 2
Link to hangover effect article 3
Link to Rockies pitch-calling article
Link to iPad crackdown news
Link to Rockies job posting
Link to FB “dead zone” info
Link to Scott Powers site
Link to Mets job posting
Link to NYT on applicant screening

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