Effectively Wild Episode 2532: Can the Public Still Teach Teams?

by
September 17, 2026

EWFI
After a brief PSA about an open producer position (email wanted@fangraphs.com with the subject line “Podcast Editor 2026” to apply) Ben Lindbergh (kind of) continues his quest to temporarily resurrect a few dearly departed baseball podcasts by bringing on MLB.com’s Mike Petriello, former host of Ballpark Dimensions, to banter about a record home run trot, which “Statcast era” records they’re most confident are also all-time records, Junior Caminero’s defense and the value of small-sample defensive splits, the latest Statcast tools, Statcast WAR, predictive vs. descriptive stats, a divisive standing ovation for Pete Alonso at Citi Field, and this week’s White Sox-Guardians series. Then (58:25) Ben chats with former Astros AGM Andrew Ball and former Phillies quantitative analyst Tom Kim about Tom’s new command metric, OpenCommand, whether public baseball research still has something to teach teams, the public-private knowledge gap, and overrated secrets.

Audio intro: Philip Bergman, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio interstitial: The Spaghettis, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Justin Peters, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Ballpark Dimensions podcast archive
Link to Caminero trot
Link to Caminero LIDOM trot
Link to Langs post
Link to Tater Trot Tracker
Link to exit-speed contributions
Link to Mike’s post on Caminero’s defense
Link to Mike on the Williams homer
Link to Mike’s last EW appearance
Link to 2024 bat tracking
Link to 2025 swing tracking
Link to Nats farm system article
Link to 2026 scoops article
Link to scoops leaderboard
Link to “I’m tired, boss” meme
Link to predicted xwOBACON
Link to VAAAA
Link to Baseball Savant
Link to “last mile” wiki
Link to standing Alons-O article
Link to team 1B WAR
Link to Piazza ovation
Link to Seaver ovation
Link to Pujols ovation
Link to Pham story
Link to White Sox-Guardians gamer
Link to Peters PA article 1
Link to Peters PA article 2
Link to Davy on Jack Reacher
Link to Andrew’s baseball bio
Link to The Athletic profile on Andrew
Link to Tom’s OpenCommand thread
Link to OpenCommand account
Link to OpenCommand github
Link to The Athletic on OpenCommand
Link to OpenCommand validation
Link to OpenCommand accuracy
Link to computer vision article 1
Link to computer vision article 1
Link to pitch-tipping detection info
Link to Tom on miss distance
Link to Tango on miss distance
Link to Sam on misses
Link to Ben on COMMANDf/x
Link to The Athletic on Command+
Link to “Stuff” model command stats
Link to BP on command 1
Link to BP on command 2
Link to team targets article
Link to team targets graph
Link to command value post
Link to Tom’s post on baseball analytics
Link to Andrew’s Substack
Link to Andrew on public baseball analysis
Link to Andrew on idea value
Link to Ben on baseball secrets
Link to Andrew on idea value
Link to Andrew on draft performance
Link to Hustle+ paper
Link to Ben on hustle
Link to Andrew’s podcast post
Link to Andrew’s podcast
Link to Marvel’s Wolverine clip 1
Link to Ben’s first Wolverine pod
Link to Ben’s second Wolverine pod
Link to previous Winquest banter
Link to Gasper story
Link to Paine on position-player pitchers

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Queens Reign Over the Heights and Advance to WPBL Championship Series

by
September 16, 2026
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

To the extreme dismay of schoolchildren everywhere, the semifinal series between the Los Angeles Queens and the New York Heights came down to which team was the most thorough in completing its homework. In any league, a playoff series provides the opportunity to devote more dedicated study time to an opponent than is typically afforded by the day-to-day grind of the regular season. It’s a group project with season-ending consequences, if not done properly. Both sides delivered a strong showing during the practical exam, but Monday’s decisive Game 3 ended with a 15-11 victory for Los Angeles. Yet, despite the win on the scoreboard and in the series, it would be a bridge too far to say that the Queens aced the test. At several points during the series, the Heights posed a question and the Queens had no answer, but Los Angeles kept New York guessing too, and you can only default to bubbling in B on the scantron so many times before your score starts to look ugly.

Here’s the game-by-game breakdown of how the Queens ultimately outwitted the Heights.

Game 1

Queens Game 1 starter Michelle Roche was interviewed on the field following their 10-3 win. She went five innings, threw a modest 65 pitches, and allowed just one run on four hits and a walk with two strikeouts. When asked what made her so effective, Roche said the team’s pitchers and catchers got together and, “Went through all the data, all of the games, and just figured out the weaknesses of their batting, but also the strengths of our pitching — and just went with our strengths.”

By contrast, here’s a quote from Heights manager Rocky Henley during a postgame press conference on August 19, “I really don’t know about Trackman yet. Trackman is available, but it takes so much time,” she said. “My days are just so full of other things right now that I just can’t sit down and learn Trackman. I need someone to actually walk me through it, so I can kind of learn a little bit more about it, and I’m waiting for that day. Maybe this weekend, I can really sit down on Sunday and start really diving into those numbers.” Read the rest of this entry »


Don’t Freak Out About Jesús Luzardo’s Shoulder. At Least Not Yet.

by
September 16, 2026
Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

On August 24, I wrote about the Phillies, who’d just completed a nine-game winning streak in terrific style. After dropping the first two games of an extended West Coast road trip, they ripped off another six-game winning streak, with a run of seven games against the first-place Braves in a 10-day stretch to come.

Things haven’t gone so well since. Over the past two weeks, the Phillies are 4-8, with five of those losses coming by a single run. The bullpen is showing fatigue cracks; Jhoan Duran has lost twice while pitching in non-save situations, while on Friday, three different Phillies relievers blew saves in the span of three innings.

One of the bright spots of the Phillies’ last homestand came on Labor Day, when Jesús Luzardo threw a shutout in a 1-0 victory over Atlanta, thus obviating the need for a bullpen. Read the rest of this entry »


Sandy Alcantara, Quantity Starter

by
September 16, 2026
Jim Rassol-Imagn Images

It’s been almost four months since one of my periodic check-ins on Sandy Alcantara. And everything’s going well. In May, I declared the 2022 NL Cy Young winner “part of the way back,” after he’d lowered his ERA from 5.36 in 2025 to 3.53 in his first 10 starts of 2026.

Alcantara has started another 21 games since that post, and the results have been similar, if not quite as good. Since May 21, Alcantara is 10-8 with a 4.01 ERA, with xERA and FIP marks in the low 4.00s as well. Even in 2022, Alcantara was never a big per-inning strikeout guy; he was fourth in the league in punchouts mostly on the strength of how many innings he threw. That year’s NL strikeout leader, Corbin Burnes, struck out 36 more batters in 26 2/3 fewer innings.

But Alcantara used his height and changeup and three-fastball combination to get lots of groundballs and allow basically zero homers. Thus: The no. 11 strikeout rate in the NL (out of just 22 qualified starters) led to the no. 2 ERA. Read the rest of this entry »


Let’s Help Jack Reacher Remember Some Guys

by
September 16, 2026
Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Reacher needs our help. Reacher is in trouble, and only we baseball nerds can provide the assistance he needs. Wait, I should back up.

Reacher is the eponymous protagonist of the television show Reacher, based on Lee Child’s Jack Reacher novels. He’s an enormous former military policeman and current drifter who wanders across America maiming, torturing, and murdering people – but, like, in a good way. It’s another in a long line of entertainments based on the simple premise that it’s perfectly fine to enjoy watching somebody commit horrific acts of violence so long as they visit that violence on people who deserve it. It’s also a baseball show. Reacher likes baseball. Most of the characters like baseball. They tie themselves in knots wedging baseball into conversations where it absolutely does not belong, and for that I not only salute them. I want to help.

Trouble always finds Reacher. He visits Georgia to pay his respects to a legendary blues singer and stumbles onto the world’s largest counterfeiting operation. He visits Philadelphia to watch an unnamed Phillies pitcher who touches 105 mph and winds up entangled in a plot to auction off chemical weapons to the highest bidder. He visits Maine for lobster and just happens to run into a man he once marched to the edge of a cliff, shot in the head, and left for dead. (Just to clarify once more: In this world, the guy who got shot in the head and fell off the cliff is the bad guy; the shooter is the good guy.)

Because trouble always seems to find him, Reacher takes precautions. He stays off the grid. He travels by bus. He checks into fleabag motels under false names. And because he’s a baseball fan, he always uses the names of Yankees second basemen. We’re going to help him do a better job of that, because, well, he sucks at it. Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Los Angeles Dodgers – Multiple Openings

by
September 16, 2026

Direct links to applications (please see job details below):

Manager, International Baseball Strategy and Information
Analyst, International Baseball Strategy & Information

Manager, International Baseball Strategy and Information

Description
The Los Angeles Dodgers currently have a job opportunity for Manager, International Baseball Strategy and Information. Following you will find a brief description of the job and application process. For additional information, please contact TalentRelations@ladodgers.com.

Title: Manager, International Baseball Strategy and Information
Department: Baseball Strategy & Information
Status: Full-Time/Non-Union
Pay Rate: $120,000 – $135,000
FLSA: Exempt
Reports to: Director, Baseball Strategy and Information/Vice President, Player Personnel
Location: Los Angeles, California
Posting Date: September 15, 2026

Job Summary
The Baseball Strategy and Information team of the Los Angeles Dodgers is responsible for supporting Major League Coaches, Baseball Operations Leadership, and multiple other key stakeholders with data and information needed for strategic decision making.

As a Manager, you will take on a brand-new role focused on advancing the statistical rigor and tooling we bring to International Scouting. The ideal candidate will have some experience working with multi-source data, will help us evaluate what priorities should be and what to build next, and will work collaboratively across departments to create tools and reports.

Essential Duties/Responsibilities:

Data Foundation

  • Take ownership of understanding what international scouting data we have — across every vendor, internal system, and tool — and determine what’s trustworthy, what’s missing, and what’s not being used
  • Establish what “data quality” should mean for this function and build the validation processes to get us there, leveraging existing tools when appropriate.
  • Identify and propose new data sources (vendors, scraping, or otherwise) where you see gaps worth closing

Analytical Tools

  • Build tools that let scouts, coordinators, and analysts explore historical trends by combinations of country, league, position, age, and signing bonus
  • Make this self-serve for non-technical stakeholders, not locked in a notebook only you can run
  • Use your own judgment on where analytical effort is best spent, and bring recommendations rather than waiting to be assigned a specific question

Valuation & Projection

  • Once the data foundation is solid, lead or significantly contribute to building broader valuation and projection models for international players. This includes but isn’t limited to advancing our understanding league translations, bonus pool allocation strategies, and leveraging biomechanical data into our evaluations and projections.

Day-to-Day

  • Write code daily — SQL for data work, Python/R for analysis, some blend of manual coding and AI-assisted development
  • Work closely with international scouts, analysts, and data engineering/IT
  • Translate ambiguous baseball questions (“what’s the track record of X archetype”) into data pipelines and analysis
  • Present findings to non-technical stakeholders (scouts, coordinators) in usable form

Basic Requirements/Qualifications:

Education

  • B.A. or B.S. in mathematics, economics, statistics, computer science, data science, operations research, or a related quantitative-field.

Work Experience

  • 3-5+ years of experience working with messy, multi-source data — sports/scouting data experience is a plus but not required if the underlying skill set transfers
  • Strong track record of writing production-quality SQL and Python or R; real experience with data pipelines or ETL
  • Experience distilling complex analyses into compelling, executive-level narratives and visualizations
  • A demonstrated history of identifying problems and proposing solutions without being asked — this role rewards initiative, not just execution
  • A solid understanding of baseball and international markets — you don’t need scouting/evaluation ability, but you should have some knowledge of signing dynamics and the leagues/markets involved
  • A. or B.S. in mathematics, economics, statistics, computer science, data science, operations research, or a related quantitative-field.
  • Able to communicate technical findings and recommendations to non-technical baseball people
  • Ability to spend extended time in Los Angeles for onboarding, if not able to relocate
  • Ability to work a varied schedule including evenings, weekends, and holidays.
  • Nice to have: fluency in Spanish or Japanese; prior work with geographically distributed / multi-source data; experience with cloud data infra (AWS S3/RDS/Lambda) or BI/dashboard tools.

Current Los Angeles Dodgers employees should apply via the internal job board in UltiPro by following these prompts:

MENU > MYSELF > MY COMPANY > VIEW OPPORTUNITIES > select the position > CONSENT > APPLY NOW

LOS ANGELES DODGERS LLC is an equal opportunity employer.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS LLC is firmly committed to providing equal opportunity for all qualified applicants from every race, creed, and background. LOS ANGELES DODGERS LLC is also firmly committed to complying with all applicable laws and governmental regulations at the state and local levels which prohibit discrimination.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS LLC considers all applicants without regard to national origin, race, color, religion, age, sex, sexual orientation, disability, military status, citizenship status, pregnancy or related medical conditions, marital status, ancestry-ethnicity, or any other characteristic protected by applicable state or federal civil rights law. The Immigration Reform and Control Act requires that LOS ANGELES DODGERS LLC obtain documentation from every individual who is employed, which verifies their identity and authorizes their right to work in the United States.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS LLC is committed to the full inclusion of all qualified individuals. As part of this commitment, LOS ANGELES DODGERS LLC will ensure that persons with disabilities are provided reasonable accommodations for the hiring process. If reasonable accommodation is needed, please contact TalentRelations@ladodgers.com.

To Apply
To apply, please follow this link.

Analyst, International Baseball Strategy & Information

Description
The Los Angeles Dodgers currently have a job opportunity for Analyst, International Baseball Strategy & Information. Following you will find a brief description of the job and application process. For additional information, please contact TalentRelations@ladodgers.com.

Title: Analyst, International Baseball Strategy & Information
Department: Baseball Strategy & Information
Status: Full-Time/Non-Union
Pay Rate: $80,000 – $95,000
FLSA: Non-Exempt
Reports to: Director, Baseball Strategy and Information
Location: Los Angeles, California
Posting Date: September 15, 2026

Job Summary
The Baseball Strategy and Information team of the Los Angeles Dodgers is responsible for supporting Major League Coaches, Baseball Operations Leadership, and multiple other key stakeholders with data and information needed for strategic decision making.

As an Analyst, you will take on a brand-new role focused on advancing the statistical rigor we bring to international scouting. This is an early-career role for someone who can help us audit, consolidate, and validate data, and can help build real infrastructure, not just run existing reports. The best candidates will be able to bring expertise that allows them to contribute across Baseball Operations.

Essential Duties/Responsibilities:

Phase 1: Data Audit & Quality

  • Inventory every international scouting data source we currently purchase or have access to verify what’s being ingested, where it lives, whether it’s accurate, and how it’s being used
  • Build data quality and validation checks so we have confidence in what we’re looking at, and leverage existing internal tools for this.
  • Identify gaps — data we don’t have but should, including evaluating new vendors or scraping/collecting publicly available sources

Phase 2: Exploratory Tools

  • Build tools that let scouts, coordinators, and analysts explore historical trends by combinations of country, league, position, age, and signing bonus
  • Make this data self-serve for non-technical stakeholders, not locked in a notebook only you can run

Phase 3: Valuation & Projection

  • Once the underlying data is trustworthy and well-understood, contribute to building broader valuation and projection models for international players. This includes but isn’t limited to advancing our understanding league translations, bonus pool allocation strategies, and leveraging biomechanical data into our evaluations and projections.

Day-to-Day

  • Write code daily — SQL for data work, Python/R for analysis, some blend of manual coding and AI-assisted development
  • Work closely with international scouts, analysts, and data engineering/IT
  • Translate ambiguous baseball questions (“what’s the track record of X archetype”) into data pipelines and analysis
  • Present findings to non-technical stakeholders (scouts, coordinators) in usable form

Supervisory Responsibilities

  • This role will have no supervisory responsibilities

Basic Requirements/Qualifications:

Education

  • B.A. or B.S. in mathematics, economics, statistics, computer science, data science, operations research, or a related quantitative-field.

Work Experience

  • 0-3 years of experience with strong quantitative/statistics/data science training

Knowledge, Skills & Abilities

  • Comfortable writing production-quality SQL and Python or R; experience with data pipelines, ETL, or dbt-style workflows a strong plus
  • Genuine interest in baseball and international markets — you don’t need scouting/evaluation ability, but you should understand signing dynamics, international free agency rules, and the leagues/markets involved
  • Comfortable with ambiguity — this role starts with “we don’t fully know what we have,” not a clean spec
  • Able to communicate technical findings and recommendations to non-technical baseball people
  • Ability to relocate to Los Angeles and commute to Dodger Stadium
  • Ability to work a varied schedule including evenings, weekends, and holidays.
  • Nice to have: fluency in Spanish or Japanese; prior work with geographically distributed / multi-source data; experience with cloud data infra (AWS S3/RDS/Lambda) or BI/dashboard tools.

Current Los Angeles Dodgers employees should apply via the internal job board in UltiPro by following these prompts:

MENU > MYSELF > MY COMPANY > VIEW OPPORTUNITIES > select the position > CONSENT > APPLY NOW

LOS ANGELES DODGERS LLC is an equal opportunity employer.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS LLC is firmly committed to providing equal opportunity for all qualified applicants from every race, creed, and background. LOS ANGELES DODGERS LLC is also firmly committed to complying with all applicable laws and governmental regulations at the state and local levels which prohibit discrimination.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS LLC considers all applicants without regard to national origin, race, color, religion, age, sex, sexual orientation, disability, military status, citizenship status, pregnancy or related medical conditions, marital status, ancestry-ethnicity, or any other characteristic protected by applicable state or federal civil rights law. The Immigration Reform and Control Act requires that LOS ANGELES DODGERS LLC obtain documentation from every individual who is employed, which verifies their identity and authorizes their right to work in the United States.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS LLC is committed to the full inclusion of all qualified individuals. As part of this commitment, LOS ANGELES DODGERS LLC will ensure that persons with disabilities are provided reasonable accommodations for the hiring process. If reasonable accommodation is needed, please contact TalentRelations@ladodgers.com.

To Apply
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Los Angeles Dodgers.


Is Gavin Williams an Ace for Real?

by
September 15, 2026
Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

ZiPS has been generally one of the most positive projection systems in recent years regarding the Cleveland Guardians, but it has not been quite as excited about them when it comes to the postseason. The reason? Throughout the 2020s, their rotation has typically been thoroughly competent, but not very top-heavy, and the sprint of the playoffs is a different beast than the marathon of the regular season.

This season, Cleveland is hovering around the .500 mark, but that’s no fault of the starting pitching, where there’s an argument that it has now developed two aces, an ingredient that’s an important part of a recipe for making a deep postseason run. One is Parker Messick, who previously dominated in the upper minors and seemingly didn’t need an adjustment period when he debuted with the Guardians last August. He’s emerged as one of the top pitchers in the AL, and he’ll almost definitely get downballot Cy Young votes this season. Gavin Williams, on the other hand took a bit longer to really arrive in the majors, but I think he’s unambiguously there now. Read the rest of this entry »


Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 9/15/26

by
September 15, 2026
1:38
Brendan Gawlowski: Hey everybody, I screwed up the start time on the Jotcast platform. We’ll start at 11 PST as usual.
2:00
Brendan Gawlowski: Alrighty, hello everybody. Let’s get going.
2:00
oaktownblues: Drew Burress is having a great pro debut overall, but should I be worried about the sub-70% contact rate? Does he have the juice to succeed as a low contact guy?
2:02
Brendan Gawlowski: I wouldn’t worry too much about the late-season cameo peripherals. Burress stopped playing for a couple months, got paid a ton of money, moved across the country, and started swinging a new type of bat. He struck out more than I’d have guessed but that’s a lot of change in a short amount of time, too many variables to make a huge adjustment to the forecast just yet.
2:03
Bacterun: With Josue de Paula having yet to strikeout in his first 4 MLB games, who is the prospect with the best plate discipline you have every scouted?
2:03
Brendan Gawlowski: Amador. I still believe.

Read the rest of this entry »


Sean Doolittle Talks (Washington Nationals) Pitching

by
September 15, 2026
Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports

The Washington Nationals haven’t pitched well this season. Employing 41 different hurlers — the most in the majors — the NL East club ranks fourth from the bottom in both ERA and FIP, and has the fifth-worst strikeout rate. With a handful of exceptions, the often-patchwork staff has been mediocre at best.

The future is nonetheless promising. Under the leadership of Paul Toboni, who was named president of baseball operations 11 months ago, the Nats have cast aside their old-school ways and adapted an analytically driven approach to securing outs. Bringing on board Simon Mathews as pitching coach and Grayson Crawford as director of pitching were especially meaningful steps in the organization’s much-needed retooling.

Retaining Sean Doolittle was likewise a shrewd move. Now the assistant pitching coach after serving as pitching strategist in 2024 and 2025, the 39-year-old former closer is simpatico with Toboni, Mathews, and Crawford when it comes to modern-day methods. Data savvy while also bringing a been-there-done-that understanding of what translates to success on a big league mound, Doolittle is an important part of what the Nationals are working to build.

Doolittle sat down to talk pitching when the Nats visited Fenway Park earlier this summer.

———

David Laurila: The organization overhauled its pitching infrastructure this year. What are some of things you, and the staff as a whole, have been focusing on?

Sean Doolittle: “One thing that we’ve paid a lot of attention to this year is getting guys to use both of their fastball shapes, even to off-handed hitters. For our group, that’s been new. We don’t have a ton of velocity, so we have to be really conscious of our combos and our sequencing. I think it’s helped a few guys in our group quite a bit this season. Guys like Brad Lord have thrown a lot more sinkers this year to lefty batters. It’s still not a high-percentage-usage pitch for him, but overall it’s been a big part of our education process with helping our pitchers and our catchers read swings and sequence. Game calling and stuff like that.”

Laurila: I believe Andrew Alvarez is throwing more two-seamers this year? Read the rest of this entry »


Checking in on the Cy Young Races

by
September 15, 2026
Wendell Cruz and Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Cam Schlittler brought his A-game on Sunday. Facing the Mets in the rubber game of the Subway Series at Yankee Stadium, the Yankees’ fireballer was nearly untouchable over the course of six scoreless innings, striking out eight while allowing just one hit, a fifth-inning double by Brett Baty. Meanwhile in Baltimore, the Blue Jays’ Dylan Cease worked around five walks to allow just one run over five innings while striking out nine. The two righties are engaged in an intriguing race for the AL Cy Young Award, one that could go down to the wire. The NL race is a tight one as well, with the Brewers’ Jacob Misiorowski the favorite but hardly the only one under consideration.

The 25-year-old Schlittler and 24-year-old Misiorowski are undeniably the frontrunners in their respective leagues, from both statistical and narrative standpoints. They lead in our Tom Tango-modeled Cy Young projections, and as of mid-August, they dominated polls taken by MLB.com. Nonetheless, the statistical races that can influence both our perceptions and voter behavior aren’t entirely decided, and with less than two weeks to go in the regular season, the races are worth a closer look.

The 6-foot-7 Misiorowski and 6-foot-6 Schlittler share similarities beyond their impressive heights. Both are in their first full major league seasons, after arriving in mid-2025 and helping their teams to the playoffs while showing poise beyond their years; this October, they’ll be seasoned postseason veterans. They’re the majors’ two hardest-throwing starters, with Misiorowski breaking velocity records all over the place. His average four-seam velocity — a mind-blowing 100.6 mph — not only leads the majors, but it’s also the fastest single-season velocity by a starter in the pitch-tracking era (from 2008 onward), hardly surprising given that he owns the (scrolling, scrolling, scrolling) 117 fastest pitches by a starter in pitch-tracking history — including a record-setting 105.5-mph heater to the Cubs’ Pete Crow-Armstrong on June 26 — and 353 of the 394 pitches of at least 102 mph thrown by a starter. Hunter Greene is the only other one in double digits (12). Schlittler merely ranks second among all starters this year, with an average velocity of 98.0 mph, which is still good for fifth in the pitch-tracking era. Read the rest of this entry »


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