On September 6 and then again on September 12, Tyler Mahle squared off with the Phillies. Both times, he left them frustrated and flailing; he allowed three runs across 13 innings in two Atlanta victories. In each of those games, Mahle leaned on his splitter quite a bit, something he’s done more frequently since joining the Braves at the trade deadline. That set up an interesting mind game in Wednesday’s Game 2. Seeing the same opponent for the third time in a month, would Mahle change his ways? Would the Phillies change their own approach? And could they overcome the Braves, who had been their nemeses throughout the year, and prolong their season for another day with their Kryptonite on the mound?
Mahle’s splitter was devastating last outing, so clearly the Phillies would have to sit on it. But wait! Mahle knows that the Phillies know that they won’t beat his splitter unless they key on it. So clearly, he should throw them fewer splitters. But wait! The Phillies know that Mahle knows that they will probably be sitting on the splitter. So clearly, they can’t look for splitters. But wait! Mahle knows that the Phillies know that… Well, you get the idea. There are levels to this, to paraphrase Kendrick Lamar.
Or maybe not. The Phillies either went too many levels up, or they didn’t even get into the endless iocaine powder reasoning loop I just described. Because Mahle came out leaning on his splitter, just as you’d expect, and the Phillies came out with absolutely no solutions. As Arthur C. Clarke said, any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. And to Philadelphia, Mahle’s splitter might as well have been Power Word: Whiff. They surely knew it was coming – it just didn’t matter. Read the rest of this entry »
Major league baseball’s postseason derives its spine-tingling intrigue from many sources. There’s the tension — and inherent cruelty — of a months-long season coming down to a handful of games. Perhaps nothing in sports is better than a tightly-contested postseason game entering its final innings, the score so close and the stakes so high that it’s impossible to look away, while also leaving even the most devoted fans wondering if they can bear to watch. From these theatrics we often get epic performances and precise execution. Cam Schlittler dismantling the Red Sox with coiling curveballs and unfair fastballs in front of a bloodthirsty Yankee Stadium crowd, for instance. Grant Taylor’s dastardly 3-2 slider to strike out the potential tying run and end the eighth inning in Tuesday’s Game 1 against the Astros also comes to mind, as does the Braves’ note-perfect double play to squash the Phillies’ ninth-inning rally in their opening round first game.
But sometimes, well, sometimes a similar type of joy comes from the baseball equivalent of a windmill dunk.
The scene? Petco Park, Game 1 of the National League Wild Card Series between the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres. The Padres hold a comfortable 7-0 lead in the bottom of the seventh inning. The actor? Fernando Tatis Jr., arguably the most exhilarating player in the game when he’s hitting all his marks. Looking to extend the lead — or maybe just have a little fun — Tatis takes off from first base on a 2-1 pitch and is rewarded with a curveball in the dirt, a basestealer’s delight. Tatis not only beats the throw to second, it pings off his sliding leg and into no man’s land, dribbling slowly into shallow left field as the Friar Faithful slowly ascertain what’s about to happen. Tatis is going turbo mode.
Moments like this bring fans to their feet and opponents to their knees. Tatis — who reached first on an infield single, and saw the opportunity to turn that hit’s 49.7 mph exit velocity into a run — seemed hellbent on scoring as soon as the ball caromed away from the Cubs’ infield. Is stealing a base with a touchdown-sized lead sort of reckless and unnecessary? Sure. But these are the playoffs, where it’s never a bad idea to add on, especially when presented with the opportunity to exploit a catcher like Carson Kelly, who struggled with the running game all year. We can assume Tatis merely read the scouting report and was putting that knowledge to good use. But once he took second, surely he’d chill there (with no outs!) and give the heart of the Padres’ order a chance to drive him in. Right? Wrong:
Tatis did not stop at third, and probably didn’t even consider doing so. Why would he? Because his third base coach explicitly told him to, long before Tatis even reached third base? That’s super boring. And Tatis, ever the entertainer, sensed that this blowout needed a little extra oomph before people started leaving to beat the traffic. Flying into third base, completely ignoring Bob Henley’s stop sign, and rounding for home are the sorts of moves that only the game’s great showmen have the ability to recognize, and even fewer have the aplomb to pull off. Lurking backlash for running up the score be damned (thankfully, the internet seemed to agree that this play was so awesome that he was spared any criticism), Tatis wants to remind everyone that he’s capable of things other ballplayers are not.
The Padres’ rambunctious right fielder, who has an 89th-percentile sprint speed, correctly identified that his speed would provide much more exhilaration in this situation than scoring from second on a Dustin Harris single would. Again, pretty unnecessary given the circumstance, but people don’t pay postseason ticket prices to see the mundane. They want to see superstars do superstar things, punctuated with the type of emotional outburst that makes postseason baseball so special. Does one man’s primal scream after diving across home plate register as much of a sound when 47,000 San Diegans are also screaming? Probably not, but it makes for one hell of a highlight:
None of this even accounts for the fact that Tatis started this baseball bash with a leadoff home run, giving him seven in 17 playoff games and boosting his lifetime postseason OPS to a nirvanic 1.178. All this from a man who finished April with a 75 wRC+ but who put up a 143 the rest of the way, giving him a strong chance to finish in the top five of MVP voting. His 2026 statistics will show yet another season with at least 25 homers and 25 steals — the fourth time he’s done that — with the lowest strikeout rate of his still-ascendant career to boot. But the numbers won’t tell the full narrative arc. His first home run of the regular season famously did not come until late May, and his team’s playoff odds sagged to a season-low 7.4% in July. The Padres were under .500 as late as July 25, and their deadline acquisitions of Casey Mize and Robbie Ray didn’t do much to help. But thanks to a bullpen unit that tied for second all-time in collective WAR, Jackson Merrill’s second-half revitalization, the surprise production of Harris, Ty France, and Samad Taylor, plus Tatis finding some sort of flow state (which may or may not have something to do with planetary alignment), the Padres are poised to advance into October.
The lesson here? Chase wild, thrill-seeking endeavors over playing it safe. This style of play might just be what San Diego needs in a hypothetical Division Series against the Milwaukee Brewers and their tight, fundamentally sound, 103-win operation. Run free, Fernando Tatis Jr., and deal with the consequences later. At the very least, you gave everyone something to marvel at and helped your team to a convincing win. Which is kind of the whole point of playing postseason baseball.
Big league front offices are, for the most part, populated by cowards. They say they want to win, but what they want most of all is to keep their jobs and not get yelled at. OK, maybe I came on too strong. That’s not cowardice, that’s just life under capitalism. A clever observer might note that one of the major sources of “getting yelled at” for major league GMs is the media — i.e., people like me. Maybe I should be nicer.
Two decades after the sabermetrics revolution shook up baseball’s norms, 30 GMs and/or Ps of BO have converged on a new conventional wisdom: You can never have enough pitchers.
During the regular season, sure. The 162-game slate is a siege by design. Teams play six times a week for six months, and most of the innings of most of those games are pretty pointless. Let’s say the average team plays about 55 defensive innings per week; the team’s top three starters and top two relievers might combine to throw, what, 25 of those innings? Read the rest of this entry »
Welcome to our first Members Open Game Thread. Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual game chats, your messages will be posted immediately.
Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this could be a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts. We might even have some FanGraphs Staff drop in and join the fun. Please be courteous to your fellow Members, or you may find your chat privileges revoked. This is a bit of an experiment, so we’ll see how it goes and potentially make adjustments or even add features as needed. And we certainly welcome your feedback!
Sadsoxadmin edited
Who the **** thought it was a good idea to give Cam Schlittler a breaking ball
reasonablysober
Go Cubs, Phillies, Astros, and Red Sox.
PC1970
Members Only thread..much better than a Members Only jacket.
Seuss2004
What a time to be alive
David Appelman
A FanGraphs Members Only Jacket prototype does exists….
Sean Dolinar
Hey all! Like we said, we're trying something new. We'll have staff pop in and out today. But you get to drive the conversation today.
Doug Lampert
I'm at work with this on my second screen, so I'll need a play by play if I'm going to follow the games.
Seuss2004
Since June 14th (19 starts!) Sanchez has an ERA over 4 and a higher FIP than Tyler Mahle. I have concerns.
drplantwrench
not sure if its smart to give me the ability to post immediately…
Doug Lampert
I find the delay on normal threads annoying. Giving members a revokable right to instant post would be a nice perk.
Sean Dolinar
there's some trepidation here, too.
Don Glickstein
Great interview today in the Seattle Times with John Stanton, the Mariners' chairman, about why he's keeping DiPoto and why the M's refuse to sign aging stars.
war2d2
All right! No safety net! Who’s gonna be the first to end their career with a screenshot
Jon Becker
You should be able to click the settings gear in the top right and adjust your delay
wenz
Baseball is awesome, but I have to admit that I'm having a tough time choosing between following this game and taking a post-lunch nap
Doug Lampert
Roster Resources has Roman Anthony projected to play for the Red Sox today, anyone know what the problem was yesterday?
Sean Dolinar
A few features to note:
– you can delay the incoming messages up to 3 minutes to using the gear in the top right corner.
– you can reply to a message by hovering over it and clicking in the top right corner.
wenz
Hand soreness
Jon Beckeredited
We don't make individual edits to lineup projections on the Scores page, we just use the Go-To Starting Lineup that shows on the RosterResource page. So as long as Anthony's on the roster he'll show as projected to play, but we have no idea on his availability today.
drplantwrench
very cool work, sean!
Sean Dolinar
Infield in already!
Sonny L
Look at Philly playing small ball
Jonathan Vander Lugt
I'm in the same boat after just getting back from hot pot with my day job colleagues
lzfreak
What's the deal with flipping Bohm and Stott last minute?
Seuss2004
And no TOOTBLANS through 3 batters, astounding
Jon Becker
Wasn't really last minute, got announced about an hour ago
Jon Becker
Stott-Bohm was initially a clerical error
drplantwrench
phillies dinking singles around, like we all expected
Sonny L
There ya go Suess
Seuss2004
Ah well nm
lzfreak
Kinda feels like the Phillies need more than 1 here
Doug Lampert
I didn't see the play, but does being thrown out at home on a ball in play really count as a TOOTBLAM? I admit it wasn't a force.
drplantwrench
suddenly braves have momentum again
Sonny Ledited
Ehhh, without a wide angle to see if Harper broke too early thinking it was through hard to call it a bad read. There was going to be an out somewhere on that play.
Daniel –
trust the xfip brother
Ben Clemens
I thought it was pretty weird to see the Braves with the infield in in the first. I guess they're very open to the possibility of a low scoring game
appstore
Hi Ben!
Sonny L
Don’t think I’ve ever seen a batter with a knee guard like Acuna is wearing.
lzfreak
I've always been curious on the effectiveness of playing the infield in, in general. Is this the kind of thing we have data on in a way to analyze?
alexp
I feel like Weiss was quick to pull the infield in all season
SPArn
Is Marsh a non tender candidate? Considering they just paid Bohm 10.2 in his final year, probably not, but that 2nd half wRC+ says 31!
Ben Clemens
I was thinking about this last half inning. I think the existing data could probably be manipulated to at least come up with SOMETHING. We don't have perfect infield positioning data, but we do have distance from home plate, so there's enough to do some approximating. Offseason project?
lzfreak
I'd read that!
Ben Clemens
hi
SPArn
(If anyone is lurking both here and in the Rates and Barrels discord, I'm sorry you're seeing me posit this twice)
Jim Parks
Bad baserunning by Acuna there.
SPArn
@Ben Clemens any publicity is good publicity for UVA re: Bennett Sousa? He's spoiling all of Ernie Clement and Josh Sborz's postseason goodwill!
Didn’t Marsh hurt his hand or wrist around midseason? Might be the reason for that severe a drop
Benny The Jet
With the state of the Phillies bullpen, feels like every 15+ pitch inning by Sanchez is a win for the Braves
lzfreak
Acuna is hyped
Sean Dolinar
I appreciate that you are here.
Seuss2004edited
Lefties with a .391 OPS on the season vs Sanchez. Which is really, really bad, but as Olson just demonstrated, not .000
Amos
Is there any way to “pop out” the chat as its own window/tab? On my phone, the extra real estate (and not accidentally scrolling the browser instead of the chat) would be really nice.
Jon Becker
I would be very surprised if he was NTed
Ben Clemens
we'll take it
maximus74
is this what happens with no moderation? everyone too afraid to talk, or is my chat broken?
snapper
I find it really annoying that the playoff graphics online and on TV show players stats from the current series, rather than their regular season stats.
Doug Lampert
I think there just aren't many people on. I keep seeing the same names.
Sean Dolinar
Fear. Everything is working. And only one person got put into auto moderation because of a swear word.
lzfreak
How available do we think Duran is? Lotta pitches yesterday but you'd think he could go an inning today or tomorrow. But since you need to win both, if you can only throw him one more time in the series, why not wait until tomorrow when he's better rested?
Seuss2004
I mean i'm over here trying to do my job, we can't all be content creators
Rich Hill's Fastball
Sean, thanks for the incredibly fast turnaround on that chat delay feature I asked about yesterday! Helped me avoid spoilers given my cable package
wenz
Is this the most boring series judged solely by uniforms? Red and blue vs. red and blue
TKDC
Acuña did not have only four stolen bases this year, no matter how many times they repeat that.
tjcook87
Same, and…I just don't have anything to say. Silence better than noise.
lzfreak
Yeah this has really been throwing me off. Do they not have fact checkers?
Sonny L
Philly needs to win because I’m not ready to lose Kruk this year. Man is delightful in the booth
Benny The Jet
Beating a dead horse a bit, but Votto is just really good at this- especially at pushing back on some of the other announcers
tdmoc
so far this series feels like it's wasted on the WC round
Sean Dolinar
No problem! It wasn't too hard, because all we had to do was add X many seconds and filter base on that just in your client. No reason to wait to implement.
Moate
Some people are charming in ways you just can’t teach, and dude has it.
jaysohm
we should just be happy that not all baseball is a blowout
Rich Hill's Fastball
Sox-Yanks too. That shouldve been a 1-game or a CS.
jromero
despite limiting damage how concerning is Sanchez's pitch count?
Alex Remington
Not extremely, I'd think? All he needs is a 10-pitch inning and he's right back on track to go his usual 6-7.
Klubot3000
Sean, the nested replies are so good visually! Kudos!
Alex Remington
My concern with Mahle is, really, does he have the weapons to get through the lineup more than twice? His splitter's been working quite well but the rest of his stuff just doesn't feel playoff elite.
Sean Dolinar
🙏
maximus74
for anyone that was here yesterday around this time, how do the numbers compare to the non-Members only chat?
Jon Becker
Getting through the lineup exactly twice is more than enough for all but a handful of starters in these playoffs, IMO
Sonny L
Until they start spitting on the split let him keep going. Problem is if it’s a close game you might find out too late they’re not chasing it again.
Klubot3000
Think there were about double for much of yesterday's game? Maybe a bit more at peak
Jimmy
I finally have my seat at the cool kids table here that is definitely not just a bunch of nerds
Klubot3000
His 4S and FC are both pretty decent
Doug Lampert
You just keep thinking that.
tdmoc
yeah, relievers casting from HP in the playoffs is the standard at this point
beanbong
Mahle's probably only going to see Turner three times, Lee/Dodd likely come in to face Schwarber/Harper/Bohm/Stott
TKDC
I’d let him pitch to exactly one hitter a third time.
Alex Remington
I'm sorry can you please translate "casting from HP"? I feel I'm losing nerd cred by even asking
Alex Remington
Leaning on Lee is going to take a pretty big leap of faith. He was absolutely torched in the second half and the Braves barely pitched him in September. Maybe they're confident he's cleaned up his pitch-tipping, but he gave up runs in two of the four appearances he made over the last two weeks of the season.
beanbong
Really baffling to me that they keep putting Kim in the lineup. It's hard to imagine more of an automatic out on any team that made the playoffs
Klubot3000
Did they come out and say it was pitch tipping? He really was incredible to start the year and the late slide was concerning
whatmonster
Is it just me, or are more players wearing the 90s-style skinny pants? Look how tight Acuna’s pants are around the calves. Looks great.
casting from hit points – I just mean they don't need much more from Mahle because bullpens get pushed to the brink as a matter of course in the playoffs
lzfreak
He's not the guy you want to walk
beanbong
The peripherals weren't nearly as bad as the ERA. You've gotta trust Lee, he's the best lefty in the pen
Klubot3000
Thanks. Lee didn't get many whiffs yesterday, but nice to see the velo up at least
Hazmat Corntail
It’s gotta be all hands on deck so at least a couple of batters, I’d think.
Doug Lampertedited
He's been hitting like a pitcher this year, except I'm pretty sure back when the braves had Madox/Glavin/et al, their pitchers were better than that.
Edited to add: And after walking Kim he strikes out Acuna. Baseball.
beanbong
Max Fried was a much better hitter than 2026 Kim
antihustle
I'm one of those people who types out half a comment before deleting it and staying silent. Is that a millennial thing?
lzfreak
I wonder if the bye team (in this case the Dodgers) get together to watch these wildcard series. Or if they're just taking a few days off to rest
Rich Hill's Fastball
Several players have mentioned the team has watch parties set up.
antihustle
Hoping to hear Matty V say "Oh and he botches it!" at least once this postseason
brewersbibliophile
Millennial here, I do that quite often
Smiling Politely
If I'm Shohei Ohtani, I'm inviting everyone over to my 2800 sq ft hot tub to watch the game on my 2km long tv
Fun-Hating Dork
The Phillies are right there and have Marchan and Stubbs on their roster.
Bacterunedited
Okay, just finished enough work that I can turn the game on and coast for the rest of the day, what did i miss!
Bacterun
Millennial here, I to do that
antihustle
Love a ground ball pitcher
drplantwrench
looks like playing IF in in the 1st inning has been a smart idea so far
Alex Remington
Atlanta's great hope for this whole series is to get into the pen as early as possible. But Sanchez is getting stronger as he goes.
Joe Savarese
Can the White Sox actually make the World Series??
Joe Savarese
Since my Tigers let me down ..
Ben
I would much rather be able to watch the playoff games with the MLB.tv subscription that I pay for every year…but the fact that the little field view on Gameday shows the little box position players doing grounders and throws to first while the pitcher is tossing warmup pitches is kind of delightful.
antihustle
I don't know how it is for everyone else, but it's almost like I got all the social part of social media out of my system with Myspace/early FB and now it's a mix of not being able to quite articulate the thought I'm having, fearing negative comments, worrying it isn't going to meaningfully add to the conversation. My urge to even delete this comment is high, but I'm going to resist!
Joe Savarese
Is that Maddux out there today–lol
jaysohm
Votto is so good at this. Avoiding nonsense and providing actual analysis of Schwarber mid-at bat
lzfreak
I love Votto completely ignoring the dumb question
TKDC
I’m guessing they give Rushing the wrong address.
antihustle
The first inning definitely had me thinking things could get out of hand, but the pitchers have locked in!
antihustle
Dealing!
Rich Hill's Fastball
Harper just has one of those swings, man
Bacterunedited
Ya exactly, I got rid of most of the social media stuff years ago (use bluesky for science since im a microbiologist and its good for that) and just struggle with the idea that anyone gives a schlitt about random things i have to say (or most of the time not say lol)
maximus74
with 1.5 usable SP, that would be reminiscent of the 2006 Cardinals
Klubot3000
Gosh that sequence was good from Mahle
riibett
Whats the deal with that philly fan's costume? Is that supposed to be the Phanatic? Is this a Philly-Florida Gators Crossover?
hb31
Mahle carving up the Phillies, as expected
lzfreak
So do you bring Mahle back for the 6th facing the middle of the order a third time? Or say that 5 innings is a job well done and turn it over to the relievers?
Klubot3000
Definitely let him start the next inning
lzfreak
He's looked good but guys are good until they aren't sometimes
antihustle
I totally get what you mean. Awesome that you're a microbiologist btw
beanbong
3.32 FIP since the trade and 1 ER over 13 innings in his last two starts against Philly. Braves have made adjustments to his mix that have yielded results
riibett
Think philly's offense has been so anemic you can push him a bit with a short leash
antihustle
I struggle with that, any time a SP is looking good I want them to come back out
Klubot3000
Philly 28th in baseball v. RHP this year
antihustle
Backstreet Boys on the organ, love it!
Klubot3000
Braves' organist is very fun!
Rich Hill's Fastball
Organist a fan of the Backstreet Boys?
lzfreak
A Braves Dodgers series would be pretty epic for organs
antihustle
What a fun job that would be!
Rich Hill's Fastball
Dieter Ruehle (Dodgers and LA Kings organist) is one of the best, yes!
antihustleedited
I will never not be upset when there is an in-game picture-in-picture ad
riibett
mattingly's got the look of a man that's about to let sanchez throw 800 pitches today
Seuss2004
[Hooded Kermit meme] do it.
antihustle
pleeeeeease
drewcorb
I really like Bluesky for following researchers and science news too. plus pretty much all my preferred baseball writers are there too
jonmberra
Mattingly is at least partially responsible for playoff Kershaw.
lzfreak
Kruk is having a hilarious and great series
antihustle
Agreed!
drplantwrench
and theres the play that will haunt the phillies
lzfreak
What an awkward play
jonmberra
The Phillies defense is frustating.
antihustle
Pitcher deflection messing up a play is always so frustrating, you can't blame them for reacting on instincts
Seuss2004
This is peak Phillies baseball
Fun-Hating Dork
Any in-game alteration of the video — including showing stupid mid-game interviews — is terrible.
antihustle
Woooooooow
drplantwrench
sike just kidding hehe
jonmberra
Maybe I spoke too soon on the Phils defense
Seuss2004
Crowd got silent REAL FAST.
lzfreak
Another win for infield in
Benny The Jet
Wow
lzfreak
Or at least a little in
Fun-Hating Dork
The ever famous 3-2-3 double play!
beanbong
At some point you would've thought someone would tell Michael Harris he can take a pitch
lmb2020
Just how they drew it up
whatmonster
Sanchez must feel like an impossible matchup if you’re Harris.
Klubot3000
Harris is pretty good v lefties tbh
whatmonster
Mahle back out for the 7th, surprising.
Seuss2004
Just like I always say, Phillies are all about defense.
Klubot3000
I think these are his last 3 hitters
Sonny L
First 2 splits to JT were nkt well located
riibett
yeah if it gets to schwarber a lefty is definitely coming in
whatmonster
I was about to ask if we’re talking about the same Harris but I looked up his splits again – increased his OPS vs lefties by 150 pts this year. So not as bad as he used to be.
jonmberra
I know Mahle was way better with the Braves but I was not expecting a playoff start this good.
whatmonster
Man 7IP 1ER from Mahle is better than anyone even dreamed of in this game
Ben Clemens
I feel like if I were Votto I'd only be saved from tearing my hair out watching this game by the lack of hair
lzfreak
Man, Mahle facing 28 batters and giving up only 1 run is an enormous win for the Braves
Ben Clemens
Like, Mahle has one move. And he's already showed them that move TWICE in September.
Klubot3000
55 splitters! Massive
Ben Clemens
And they keep being like 'wait what, a splitter? what is this?'
Ben Clemens
(I'm recapping this game, this is going to be a focus of my writeup)
Klubot3000
Way more than he's ever thrown before
Klubot3000
So even if you're 'ready' for it, going that far above his previous high is ballsy
whatmonster
If it ain’t broke don’t fix it mentality
Sonny L
The ump view on the splits made it look really difficult to pick up that spin in daylight.
Sean Dolinar
🎶Take me out to the ballgame
Take me out to the crowd
Buy me some peanuts and Cracker Jacks
I don't care if I never get back🎶
lzfreak
Is it too late for the Phillies to sign Votto to take an ab? He's probably the guy in the building most capable of taking those splitters
David Appelman
Can we get some sort of animation and midi music?
Seuss2004
"They didn't need the Pope, they had Cam Schlittler"
Seuss2004
God bless you Franzke
lzfreak
How can Sanchez be the "pitcher of record" in a tie game?
beanbong
Listening to the radio call and not being able to see the actual pitch makes these ABS reviews much more dramatic
Ben Clemens
Votto said he was getting Braves playoff nervousness from his 2020 trip there, so maybe he's too out of the game to do it. BUt otherwise, yeah, their lefties were not really up to the task today.
Klubot3000
I really wish they'd take away the K zone
jonmberra
Is this game gonna be the end of the Phillies window?
drplantwrench
please break it open now braves
riibett
Great day from murphy, walk, double, 3 (I think?) abs overturns
Ben Clemens
yes please!
snapper
How do you let Kim bat here? Have they no bench?
Anon21
Mattingly has no good options here, but this is a highly risky decision, assuming the intent is to leave him in to face Acuña for a fourth time.
lzfreak
Oh man bad decision there
Benny The Jet
oh noooooooooo
Seuss2004
I think the starting pitching is too good for that, the floor is fairly high. But the position player age and cost is concerning for sure
drplantwrench
now THIS is the play that will haunt the phillies
riibett
crazy going to second there
Anon21
The throw wasn't horrendous, but you can't go to second there unless you're *sure* you'll get him!
ncphl
Once that ball is past you, it makes no sense to go to second
antihustle
I find watching baseball so much more enjoyable when there is no k zone overlay
Anon21
Killer non-challenge on the 0-1
snapper
If they just take the out at 1st, things are looking much better here.
Turduckenfrank
if they take the out at 1st, do they just walk acuna, and they're in the same spot anyway?
antihustle
Is Country Roads the Dolly Parton of songs?
snapper
You can't walk him there, IMO
antihustle
Nooooooooo waaaaaaay
snapper
Even if they get 1, you're still in the game. Have to prevent a big inning.
whatmonster
No, that’s the one that will haunt them
Sonny L
Oooooooof
antihustle
That's a clown play
drplantwrench
now THIS is the play that will haunt the phillies
Benny The Jet
oh noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
spnchiang
holy bad defense
lzfreak
Harper about to be a meme
Klubot3000
LOL
Turduckenfrank
unbelievable
Klubot3000
LOVE THAT PHILLIES DEEEEEEEEE
Ben Clemens
Bryce Harper with those deck-of-cards hops
Ben Clemens
That was not great
lzfreak
Maybe they shouldn't have moved him to the outfield in the middle of the season
lmb2020
It's one thing when it is a reliever spamming one pitch (idk why but Tommy Kahnle's changeup is what I think about for this archetype) but I feel like you aren't fully prepared if you let a starter throw that pitch mix
Benny The Jet
I feel like I just watched a car crash
antihustle
slo mo
Sonny L
Check in on the Phillies fans in your life
drplantwrench
should baldwin be that pumped up for an error
whatmonster
(Handshake meme) Acuna – Harper – misplays in RG that allow a run
Seuss2004
I hate how few things are recorded as errors these days
antihustle
That should have been the "Oh and he botches it!" call
twelvejones
Cannot think of a worse way for the Phillies to potentially lose an elimination game
whatmonster
That wasn’t an error???
Sean Dolinar
When I played RF in rec league softball a few years back, that's pretty much how I played fly balls.
Sonny L
Yes
lzfreak
Is there wind?
jonmberra
It is insane to leave Sanchez in here
Benny The Jet
Arraez isn't even on the roster, what is he doing out there
whatmonster
Sanchez at 115 pitches
Barves Gotta Barve
Potential series winning run scoring? Yes?
jromero
i expected the Phillies defense to be bad but this plus the wrist hit yesterday seem more like pure flukes or nerves then bad baseball
drplantwrench
it was an error whether it was recorded or not
antihustle
I played kickball a few times a couple years ago and I could not believe how hard of a time I had tracking those fly balls!
drplantwrench
(im being facetious if thats not clear)
antihustle
hooooooo weeeeeee
lzfreak
Do the Braves go Suarez/Iglesias from here then?
Antonio Bananas
Ive said this in every thread ever since defense wasnt mentioned at all in the preview article, but PHI's poor defense is a story. A better CF than Hill catches Ozzie's triple, a better IF gets Harris, and most RF catch that go-ahead flyball.
antihustle
I'm sorry, how was that ruled a hit?
beanbong
Probably Fuentes next unless they want Lee for the lefty/lefty
Sonny L
Nelson Cruz flashbacks on that one. Sorry Bryce (and Rangers fans)
Turduckenfrank
not to mention bohm's play on the bunt
Sean Dolinar
One time, with the sun in my eyes, I somehow got under a fliner, scared me a little when the ball landed in my glove.
Anon21
So silly. You can't even give the usual excuse that he never touched it.
antihustle
That was my thought!
TKDC
As a Braves fan, I lack the imagination to conceive of a more enjoyable way to take a lead in a crucial game.
Turduckenfrank
A batted ball with an xBA of .08 that hit the fielder's glove on the fly when they had ample time to catch is like the textbook definition of an OF error, but I guess I'm not an official scorekeeper
McColin
I mean, last year Kerkering, but yeah
riibett
seconded
Anon21
Let's not jinx it, lest Philly find a way to have an equal and opposite heartbreaking lead change
maximus74
can't watch at work, but saw the replay of that flyball….big OOF
Anon21
Schwarber bunt?? Nah, he's just goofin'
beanbong
21.7% change in WPA after the Harper drop, really hate to see it happen to such an intelligent guy
campam9
On the one hand, this series has been far too weird that I expected game 2 would continue as it was. On the other hand, there's still 2 innings left for another twist to happen.
Antonio Bananas
Guessing a solo shot here and then Iglesias causes drama in the 9th
Jacquehammer Jones
a prophet
antihustle
I mean you can do that too
Antonio Bananas
Knew it
drplantwrench
schwarber shouldve bunted
Seuss2004
Lotto numbers plz.
lzfreak
Are you from the future
Hazmat Corntail
I think I just heard that ball ounce off the front of my place here in Philly
Antonio Bananas
Im from the land of "watching the Braves all season"
Turduckenfrank
did the writers leak the script to you
cashgod27
I think Dylan Lee would've rather made a different pitch
TKDC
Ok, I’m done here
whatmonster
Well this is less fun
Hazmat Corntail
Oops the drama came an inning early haha
spnchiang
wowwwwww
jonmberra
Philly needed their dudes to be dudes and they delivered.
drplantwrench
HAHAHHAHA
tjcook87
lmaoooo
jzmaxson27
Well that was fun!
lmb2020
Ah well. We'll call that a wash
Anon21
dear god
cashgod27
I was literally thinking "The Phillies have six outs to save their legacy" and they didn't even need one!
Russell
i just opened the broadcast and thought it was just really behind lol
Turduckenfrank
harper is too relieved to even celebrate
ruddurball
Is he tipping again? They’re unloading
Alex Remington
I hate being Cassandra on this, but I typed this an hour and a half ago: "Leaning on Lee is going to take a pretty big leap of faith. He was absolutely torched in the second half and the Braves barely pitched him in September. Maybe they're confident he's cleaned up his pitch-tipping, but he gave up runs in two of the four appearances he made over the last two weeks of the season."
Sonny L
Baseball rules
antihustle
I do remember this comment, props to you
Russell
are they booing stott, or the braves?
Seuss2004
I think I just heard Smelly Cat on the organ
TKDC
My bad. 😞
antihustle
Justice for Sanchez
Benny The Jet
May all of us be blessed with the same opportunities for redemption that baseball inherently provides
Seuss2004
They're saying Boo-urns
cashgod27
I think they're saying Boo-raves!
Russell
surely it's that
eandy
Sanchez doesnt deserve justice. Poor performance even though Harper hurt him
Eshan Mehere
dylan lee didn’t give up a homer to a LHH all season lol
antihustle
Love baseball for these kinds of things
eandy
Preach
Eshan Mehere
Everything goes out the window in october. It’s awesome
antihustle
I want to see some reactions from Philly of the defensive miscues followed by the homers
Seuss2004
BuT it's NoT oCtObEr
eandy
So technically it's still in the window then
antihustle
Painter, what a great last name for a pitcher
Seuss2004
Mattingly giving Painter the ball in relief is giving Chevy Chase in Caddyshack: "Don't worry about this one. If you miss it, we lose."
Jos
surely painter isnt the best option for the phillies here?
lzfreak
Painter trying a little too hard to paint here
Antonio Bananas
Do we have any analytics on how much afternoon shadows actually impact the game?
Seuss2004
He *is* the best option. And don't call me Shirley.
Eshan Mehere
is there a reason painter is in this game
antihustle
Beautiful
whatmonster
Harris has been rough this series
lzfreak
Good mound visit
Hazmat Corntail
The Phils pen is a travesty of a mess
jzmaxson27
Props to the kid.
carter
I’m also shocked by painter here. I mean it worked but seems like a weird ass time to bring him in.
Sonny L
Philly fans in the group chat probably pulled a muscle 180’ing so hard on Bryce Harper
lzfreak
I hope we get some good extra inning games this postseason. Such a treat to not have the nonsense ghost runner ruining it this time of year.
Jos
lol
it worked!
tjcook87
I walked away at the mound visit to check on laundry. I came back and there were 3 outs. For the sake of Philly, I should just…leave work, i guess.
beanbong
bad game today for 3-3 yesterday.
Benny The Jet
Torn between wanting extra innings, and wanting the Phillies to score to ensure another game of this tomorrow
Russell
screw it, extra innings *and* the phillies win
TKDC
Hey TJ, your boss just texted me and said you need to stay late.
Seuss2004
Ugh, feel bad for Sosa
antihustle
Ok, while I AM generally anti-hustle, if you're going to hustle and get hurt, that is probably the time to do it
Nathaniel
username checks out
Russell
Not to sound insensitive, but what's the point of checking on him on the field when you know he's coming out either way?
Benny The Jet
Works for me!
Russell
i'd think you would just bring him into the dugout
lzfreak
Now that time going to second was smart
antihustle
Fair question
antihustle
Yeah, you expect the fielders to have a good sense of when to do it
antihustle
Sucks to sacrifice yourself physically only to have the pinch runner get out at 2nd right after
Russelledited
so what exactly was the point of the bunt? are they more concerned about p(scoring at least one run) vs run expectancy?
carter
Steal a base instead guys, blah
JU Jazz Hands
RE Russel: yes. It's a tie game in the ninth. One run is kinda important
TKDC
Bohm should have changed course when he had to awkwardly field it. It really was more inexcusable than Harper’s play, which was just a classic misplay.
carter
Teams always get too conservative in the playoffs but even if only 1sb etc etc who cares. Rp very rarely hold guys on well. Hill can run, why attempt to move him over. Better imo running and Crawford likely puts the ball in play. Blah
Russelledited
based on data I could find, it increases the probability of at least one run by 1.3%. That seems bad, given the drop in expected runs
edit: other data says 1% drop
TKDCedited
Nevermind!
jzmaxson27
You're in too deep, pull up!
viceroy
bring back the hit and run!
Matthew Spence
Womp womp
eandy
I love your imagination
Antonio Bananas
Yaz*
Benny The Jet
Wonder if Bohm being relatively new to 1B was a factor here- at least anecdotally it seems like 3B moving to 1B are sometimes overly aggressive at first
whatmonster
coward Walt to take the bat out of HSK hands
whatmonster
*Ronnie?
Matthew Spence
We can edit??
appstore
I really want old-school extra innings! Glad its gone in the regular season, but love it now.
antihustle
lol easy there
Matthew Spence
Phillies in extra innings on the road what could go wrong
lzfreak
This has been a fun game
TKDC
Chip Carey vibes
Benny The Jet
Is Jonathon Bowlan alive?
Russell
this announcer has no clue what a home run looks like
Hazmat Corntail
Bohm’s played an entire season’s worth of 1B in MLB, he’s just not that good a fielder in general
Antonio Bananas
Vasgersian got my hopes up
antihustle
I kind of wish that kind of fake out call would be in MLB The Show, that'd be funny
lzfreak
There seems to be no correlation today on his enthusiasm level for the call and how likely the batted ball is to be a homer
Anon21
Well at least we'll have real extra innings baseball…
Turduckenfrank
he's only been announcing baseball for 30+ years, gotta give him some slack
Hazmat Corntail
Hasn’t pitched in two weeks because of a groin thing
Russell
so true, my bad
jzmaxson27
Ooof, that was your pitch Schwarb.
Benny The Jet
Every other major change they've made to baseball in my lifetime I have felt somewhere between positively to relatively ambivalently about, but, man, I miss old school extra innings
antihustle
Vasgersian was born Vasgerdsian and later it was changed. Fascinating!
jonmberraedited
The Phillies still can't hit a splitter
antihustle
Woooooooooow
Benny The Jet
Hard not to feel like this is Philly's best shot, with the top of the line up due up and a thin bullpen to lean on…
Hazmat Corntail
Hahahahaha
eandy
I like the Manfred man for regular season because it adds more excitement and keeps the games going fast. Like I have work the next day, I cant be up till midnight watching a 13 inning game. The playoffs already have a ton of excitement and it's worth the time
Seuss2004
AAHAHAHHAHHAHHA
lzfreak
That ball had way more carry than I realized
cashgod27
One of the most out-of-nowhere homers I can remember. How the heck did that happen?
Seuss2004
Did they not just say he hadn't given up a HR to a righty all year
Turduckenfrank
absolutely did not look like a homer off the bat
Russell
perennial mvp candidate alec bohm
antihustle
It was the thermals
Benny The Jet
Postseason baseball is the best
Benny The Jet
Why did Matty V sound more excited on the Albies flyout
jzmaxson27
Is Duran hurt?
antihustle
Guess he didn't want to make the same mistake twice
Hazmat Corntail
De la Cruz has been a quiet find for the Phils this year. Him and Hill have made Dombrowski look smart
Russelledited
whoops, wrong thing to reply to
lzfreak
Don't think so but he pitched a lot yesterday and will likely need to pitch tomorrow
Benny The Jet
Gotcha, thanks!
antihustle
Any reason to take out Iglesias after only 9 pitches?
antihustle
Or is that just a hindsight 20/20 thing
cashgod27
I just checked Statcast Search – that's the fastest pitch a righty has ever hit for an oppo homer in that zone of the plate. Absolutely unreal swing.
Russell
not a must win game for them, maybe?
Hazmat Corntail
My guess is they think Painter is settling in and would rather have him keep going as long as he can.
ruddurball
Trea turner has crushed him.
Alex Remington
Apparently because Turner has killed him, in a small sample.
Hazmat Corntail
Yeah I believe they said he’s 5/11 with 3 HR against him
antihustle
Wild
jonmberra
Come on Painter, I want more of this drama.
Russell
andrew "3.63 BotERA" painter has got this
antihustle
I like being in a live game chat without a ton of people, there's time to respond to people and actually read all the comments
Russell
that auto insurance ad was horrific omg
lzfreak
Yeah this has been fantastic, more chat type stuff Fangraphs team!
Russell
yes! would love more of these
antihustle
How would you want to see Olson pitched to? Pitch around and accept a walk?
antihustle
I have my mute button on the ready for ads
jonmberra
I realized this didn't necessarily imply he has to get the outs.
Sonny L
Don’t not walk the lead off hitter
lzfreak
I feel like walking the tying run to first is to be avoided
antihustle
Crazy!
JU Jazz Hands
No. Go get him. Don't give a free base
tdmoc
holy smokes
antihustle
Painted it!
lzfreak
Painter painting
Turduckenfrank
insane call by the ump
Benny The Jet
Meanwhile Yordan in LF started off with a misplayed ball on the first hitter
jonmberra
Playoff challenge system is so dramatic. I adore it. Please no full ABS.
antihustle
But please remove the strike zone overlay!
Russell
I absolutely adore the challenge system and have 0 interest in full ABS
Benny The Jet
White Sox up 1-0 on Hunter Brown two batters in
jonmberra
Agreed
viceroy
This has to be below replacement level managing. Leaving Duran in so long to give up the homer after bouncing ball 4 yesterday. And now leaving a rookie starter in for 3 inning save.
If Mattingly trusted Painter here, why not yesterday?
antihustle
I think umps should be encouraged to chirp back when the calls stand
Russell
i mean, they've got the pope, astros have no shot
Nathaniel
is yellow an unofficial 4th color for atlanta?
antihustle
Yes please
Benny The Jet
What is Bowlan doing on the roster if you can't trust him here?
Sonny L
This is the Andrew Painter I pictured based on scouting reports
antihustle
Who gives a better series against the Dodgers?
Hazmat Corntail
I go back to what I said before, I think that they feel that he’s getting into his regular game flow and is settled in.
antihustle
Drama
Sonny L
The ominous Michael Harris soft single….
Benny The Jet
Astros put Yordan in LF to get Nick Allen in the infield at 3B, now Yordan has misplayed a ball and Allen has made an error in the 1st inning
Russell
i'd think the braves given 2021
antihustle
Only time I want to hear turn down for what is watching Valerie and Ricky on SYTYCD
jzmaxson27
Not that it's the be all end all, but Dodgers went 4-2 versus the Phils and 1-5 versus the Braves this year.
antihustle
A comment for no one but that's ok
antihustle
Love the catcher/pitcher combo challenge
Matthew Spence
What a performance by Painter
Hazmat Corntail
LMaO
JU Jazz Hands
A few middle middle pitches by Painter that haven't been blasted
antihustle
Imagine if they had used up their challenges!
Antonio Bananas
How anti climatic
Russell
omg what an ending
lzfreak
Yeah I don't find that to be great theater tbh
Turduckenfrank
the first-pitch middle-middle changeup to baldwin should've been destroyed
Hazmat Corntail
Phillies just became a trivia question answer.
tjcook87
3-0 Sox, still top of the first, #wildthrowoffense
eandy
ABS is sick
Russell
i think it would get a home crowd pretty hyped, but the braves fans aren't exactly enthused
Jacquehammer Jones
starting Nick Allen (not at shortstop) in an elimination game is certainly a choice
Benny The Jet
What a close, tense game, hope we get more of those- now to check in on HOU-CWS…
viceroy
I stand by this. It worked today, but Mattingly needs to figure out his bullpen pecking order ASAP. Not having a real answer to lefties is going to bite them eventually
Russell
i'm impressed that hunter brown has done this with only 21 pitches
Russell
incredibly efficient pitches/run
cashgod27
I feel embarrassed for picking the Astros to win this series. They've been outclassed in every which way by a team that's truly just happy to be here. I can hardly blame Jim Crane for blowing everything up after this.
lzfreak
Do we know the possible start times for Braves Phillies game 3 tomorrow? Presumably if some of these other series end today they'll move it later in the day, but are there specific conditions for a time change?
ncphl
Just switched to the Astros game. Why are Hunter Brown's pants so dirty?
drplantwrench
back from an hour long meeting sure hope i didnt miss any insane endings to the phillies game and terrible starts to the next game!
Fun-Hating Dork
MLB put up the whole list of combinations on one of the articles about where to watch the game.
tdmoc
I'm seeing double! four Montgomeries
jzmaxson27
I am having a hard time getting over the notion that the White Sox legitimately may play in the ALCS. Absolutely crazy.
Jorge Fabregas
33 pitches
drplantwrench
in retrospect, braves could be out of the playoffs if not for unlikely hero austin riley. wild to think about
Russell
socktober
Fun-Hating Dork
I refuse to believe the Astros are eliminated until the game is completely over. They're like Jason or Freddy.
lzfreak
Ah found it. Not the way I'd do it that's for sure
Jorge Fabregas
Brown is down
Spoon Uptown
Big HRs from Austin Riley, and Alec Bohm, two players their fanbases have made into pariahs. Now we need Volpe to HR
jzmaxson27
He just wanted to see him face the full 9, for funsies.
tdmoc
yeah the prognosis is pretty bad, but I've seen many teams piss away a four-run lead with the whole game ahead
Russell
it's okay, at least the astros have an elite bullpen
cashgod27
So the Astros need 25 outs from their bullpen that stunk it up yesterday and they need to outscore the White Sox by 4 runs across those 25 outs, assuming they get out of this jam. How hard can it be?
Nathaniel
Yikes, Roman Anthony is out for the rest of this series and likely the ALDS (in the vanishingly small likelihood the Sox go that far) with a recurrance of his mysterious hand injury…
tjcook87
Tell 'em, Wash.
JU Jazz Hands
Where is Brown? There is Brown. Mr. Brown is out of town.
Jorge Fabregas
Is it a mystery? He was out with a hand injury before and it's some kind of flare-up, right?
Nathaniel
Well, it was a wrist injury, and then it was a tendon injury in his ring finger, and now it's a strain of "several muscles" according to Tracy, and no one seems to know how to fix it
drplantwrench
final score of this game will be 36 – 22
Russell
I forgot that the white sox still have to pitch in this game
tdmoc
Cue: "did Burke get cold on the bench?????"
L. Ron Hoyabembe
It was a partial tear of the tendon that connects the ring finger to the wrist
antihustle
Will Yordan get his Harper moment to redeem his blunder
Jorge Fabregas
Burke often has lower velo early in the game.
antihustle
Just realized no strike zone overlay on the broadcast!! So nice
antihustle
I heard "hit the dirt" and was soooo confused
Sean Dolinar
They must have read this chat thread.
Spoon Uptown
Paredes is used to hitting beams and catwalks in his home ballpark
Fun-Hating Dork
At this rate, he might not have a right hand by Christmas.
Fun-Hating Dork
Gameday had a weird fit. It put up "in play, out(s)" then blinked a few times and changed it to a foul ball.
Seuss2004
Elite take.
cashgod27
By rule he can't play in the ALDS since he's been removed from the roster
cashgod27
Anthony officially off the Red Sox roster, Curtis Mead (!) is in. Anthony will be ineligible for the ALDS should the Red Sox advance
Seuss2004
36 minute first-inning. Looking forward to the Yankee-Red Sox game starting in the bottom of the 5th.
Jorge Fabregas
Mead redemption would be fun.
JU Jazz Hands
At least Blubaugh didn't have to wait around to never get into this game
JU Jazz Hands
This was not a good joke. And I'm not sure how to pronounce his name
Sonny L
Both Mead and Sanchez showing out today would be fun
Jorge Fabregas
Blubaugh way better today so far. Pitched 96 innings in relief, horrible September, bad yesterday, and I assumed he was toast until next year.
Spoon Uptown
In my head it's pronounced Blu and then the sound Orson Welles makes in that champagne commercial, not sure if I can post a Youtube link here
antihustle
Everyone throws so hard nowadays. Who are some of the best pitchers in 2026 that don't throw hard at all
Seuss2004
Ranger Suarez
Seuss2004
Is Blubaugh the first pitcher ever to appear in the first inning of consecutive playoff games?
norcalblue
Weiss went “all in” in today and Phillies look to be in an excellent position to close it out tomorrow. Mattingly has an ace for tomorrow and his best pen arm rested. Weiss has neither.
drplantwrench
brent suter
drplantwrench
only 48 more runs until my prediction was right
Spoon Uptown
Tyler Rogers, Alex Vesia, Logan Henderson to name a few
Sean Dolinar
Hey all, I think we are going shut down this game thread for the day. I think a lot of people left work or are eating dinner now. This worked out pretty well, and we are going to try more things like these in the future.
Fun-Hating Dork
Nick Allen clearly understood the assignment and…popped out immediately.
drplantwrench
but we still have 16 hours of baseball…
Seuss2004
Will there be something for the night games?
tdmoc
thank you for setting this up Sean!
antihustle
Thanks Sean!
Sean Dolinar
Not for today. We usually peak around 4PM ET then it's downhill after that. But hopefully, for other days.
Defensive metrics take a long time to stabilize. As such, I’ve been waiting for a few months to write this article. But the season is over. We’ve gotten as much information as we’re going to get, and Seiya Suzuki is still grading out as one of the best fielders in baseball. His 8 FRV is tied for 12th among outfielders, his 14 DRS is tied for seventh, and his 1.4 DRP ranks 33rd. To illustrate how surprising that is, let me show you what those numbers have looked like over the course of his MLB career:
Wait, sorry, that graph didn’t include the numbers for the 2026 season. That’s my bad. Let me just add them back in real quick:
Yeah, that’s much better. Suzuki certainly looks like a whole new defender out there. As is the case for many players, the three advanced defensive metrics have rarely agreed about Suzuki’s performance. DRP, by far the most conservative, has generally graded him as slightly above average, while Statcast has almost always been the low man. However, there are some general points of consensus here, the biggest being that Suzuki graded out very badly according to all three metrics last year, and then, in his age-31 season, experienced a miraculous reinvention. He’s been consistent, too. Statcast credits him with at least one fielding run in each month of the season. What is going on in right field at Wrigley? Read the rest of this entry »
“He’s not coming out of this game” was the comment from NBC play-by-play announcer Dave Flemming while the broadcast lingered on a shot of Padres Game 1 starter Michael King as he sat in the dugout looking through a notebook during the bottom of the sixth inning. “He’s not reading War and Peace either,” added color commentator Mark Grant. “He’s studying hitters.”
But that’s not to say King and the Padres wouldn’t find certain aspects of War and Peace relatable. Speaking in reference to his own work, Leo Tolstoy acknowledged that War and Peace defies conventional attempts at classification, saying it is “not a novel, even less is it a poem, and still less a historical chronicle.” Comparatively, analysts have struggled all season to properly define the 2026 Padres. If Tolstoy had scripted the Friars, he might have said they are “not a playoff team, much less a contender, and still less a club in the midst of a rebuild.”
Instead, the Padres were a team that went 30-20 in its first 50 games, 19-31 over the next 50 games, and then finished out the season by going 42-20. On July 22, their odds of making the playoffs bottomed out at 7.4%. Then they went on a run, and just one month later, their odds had surged to 68.9%. But rather than continue that upward trajectory en route to clinching a playoff spot, they first endured a backslide that shrank their odds to 39.2% as recently as September 2. It would have been logical for San Diego to sell at the trade deadline, but Padres POBO A.J. Preller was born without the specific bit of genetic code that allows humans to understand selling as a strategic concept. Instead, they added starting pitchers Robbie Ray and Casey Mize and finished the year as the top-seeded Wild Card team in the National League. Read the rest of this entry »
The 2027 Free Agent Tracker is now live! There are currently 244 players on the list, with more sure to be added after the postseason concludes and teams begin to clear space on their 40-man rosters. The Tracker will be updated regularly throughout the offseason as qualifying offers are made (and then accepted or rejected) and free agents find their new homes.
Unlike in previous years, we’ve included players with pending contract options or opt-outs on our initial list of free agents. To avoid any confusion, there is an Option Type label displayed next to each player’s name, as well as a separate “FA Likelihood” column (my assessment), making it easy to filter out unlikely free agents like Ronald Acuña Jr. (the Braves have a club option, putting him in the “Not Happening” group) and include players like Nick Martinez (with a mutual option, he’s in the “Probably FA” bucket).
“Not Happening,” “Probably FA,” “Probably Not FA,” and “Tossup” are the “FA Likelihood” column categories. Any questions regarding these determinations can be sent to me on Twitter or Bluesky, or via email. I’ll be happy to discuss my assessment.
You can filter the Tracker by status (signed/unsigned), previous team, and signing team, and export the data for your own analysis. You can also sort by a player’s handedness, age, and 2026 WAR. Shortly after the postseason ends, projected 2027 WAR will be added to the Tracker, as will the results of our annual contract crowdsourcing project, which include median contract total, years, and average annual value estimates:
NEW YORK — Cam Schlittler and Ben Rice may be Massachusetts natives, but the two Yankee stars did nothing to help the Red Sox during Tuesday night’s Wild Card Series opener against their archrivals. In a start reminiscent of his performance in last year’s do-or-die Game 3 between the two teams, Schlittler, the fireballing 25-year-old righty from Walpole, dominated the Red Sox hitters, throwing 6 1/3 shutout innings and striking out 10 while allowing just two hits. Rice, the 27-year-old slugger from Cohasset, picked up the slack for the injured Aaron Judge by going 4-for-5 with two homers and six runs batted in as the Yankees waited out Red Sox ace Payton Tolle, then broke the game open against the bullpen en route to a 9-0 romp.
This was the sixth time in 363 days that Schlittler faced the Red Sox, dating back to the aforementioned Game 3 of the 2025 Wild Card Series. At that point, the baby-faced rookie — a seventh-round pick in 2022 out of Northeastern University with just 14 major league starts under his belt — turned in eight brilliant shutout innings, striking out 12 without a walk and allowing just five hits, all singles. In his first full season, while leading the league in ERA (1.95) and WAR (6.2) and making an overwhelming case for the AL Cy Young Award, Schlittler started four times against the Red Sox, putting up a 0.74 ERA in 24 1/3 innings while striking out 27. Those numbers conceal a few minor blemishes; he did allow four unearned runs in five innings in a loss on June 25, the only time in those six starts that the Yankees were defeated, and he walked five in 5 2/3 shutout innings on August 28. But so far, the Sox have yet to solve him.
They certainly didn’t on Tuesday night, though they did make Schlittler work hard enough to run up his pitch count early and to throw a career-high 117 pitches. Though Schlittler struck out three in the first inning, he needed 22 pitches to complete the frame thanks to a 10-pitch at-bat by Adley Rutschman that culminated in a soft single to left-center. His next three innings were spotless and included five more stirkeouts, but he needed 44 pitches for those, then another 23 for a fifth inning in which he yielded a two-out, seven-pitch walk to Jarren Duran, and 18 for a 1-2-3 sixth that included two more strikeouts. The pesky Red Sox fouled off 24 of his pitches in all, including 14 with two strikes. Read the rest of this entry »
Sometimes you have to go with a bullpen game. It isn’t exciting, but it’s just the reality of modern baseball. With the White Sox and Astros each battling right to the end of the season for their respective division titles, it set up a Game 1 matchup of poorly-rested pitching staffs without full, conventional rotations. Both managers looked at the starters they had available on full rest (nobody), looked at the starters they’d already used on short rest in the last week (plenty), and each settled on a bullpen game. And that’s how we ended up with a lengthy, disjointed contest where the outcome felt decided in the first hour.
Will Venable and the White Sox pitching staff put their best foot forward to open Game 1. Hagen Smith might get a playoffs-opening start as a full-time starter before his career is over; the fifth overall pick in the 2024 draft, he ripped through the minors and looked amazing in a multi-inning relief role down the stretch. When people talk about playoff pitching as nine innings of closer-level stuff, they’re imagining guys like Smith handling short stints. He came out fully gassed up, throwing a tick and a half faster than he had all season and ripping off electric sliders at the drop of a hat. He max-efforted his way through three innings of work. Perhaps most impressive, he went after Yordan Alvarez both times he faced him, including with a runner in scoring position, and won both confrontations. Read the rest of this entry »
A high-stakes game between two archrivals, featuring two of the best left-handed starters in the league against two extremely top-heavy lineups: It was always going to come down to fine margins. One pitching change, one missed call, one baserunning mistake.
In Game 1 between the Phillies and Braves, those margins were physically perceptible, as the two teams traded jabs for seven and a half innings, before Austin Riley bounced a game-winning three-run homer off the top of the right field wall at Truist Park. The Braves, 5-3 winners in the postseason curtain-raiser, are now on the verge of a date with the Dodgers in the NLDS. Read the rest of this entry »
