The fences moved in, and Michael Wacha felt the pinch. The right-hander allowed exactly twice as many home runs in 2026 as he did in the prior year, and the obvious place to look is the ballpark. Kansas City pulled the Kauffman Stadium fences in by enough to turn it from one of the toughest places to leave the yard into a roughly average home run environment. Or at least, that’s where I started when I set out to analyze Wacha’s 30 homers allowed, the third-highest mark in baseball and a career worst for the veteran pitcher.
I kept an eye on Wacha’s home run issue for two reasons. First, I was curious about how the new fences would play, and as a fly ball pitcher without strikeout stuff, Wacha was a great barometer. Second, I’ve done a lot of work on which pitches are most likely to get hit for home runs in the past few seasons, and Wacha generally finished high on those lists. But despite showing the characteristics of a pitcher who should get hit hard, he basically didn’t. Over 2024 and 2025 combined, no pitcher in baseball had a larger divergence between his expected home runs allowed, as calculated by PitchingBot, and his actual home runs allowed. Wacha’s pitches racked up 50.6 expected HR allowed during that span, according to my formulation of PitchingBot data; he allowed only 32, a gap of 18 homers. No one else had a gap of 15 or higher.
Through the end of June, there wasn’t much to pay attention to. But on July 4, Wacha got tagged for three homers at home against the Phillies, and from then on out, it was as though a switch had been flipped. From that day through the end of the season, he gave up 13 long balls at home, and another seven on the road. Was it Wacha? The stadium? Luck? I made a note to check when the playoffs were over. Today, I’d like to give you the results of that investigation, as well as revisit my old definitions of meatballs and expected home runs. Wacha’s glut of home runs allowed wasn’t simply a fluke, and the stadium wasn’t to blame for all of those added homers. Read the rest of this entry »
One story ends, another begins. The Milwaukee Brewers have hoisted the 2026 World Series trophy and earned an offseason of rest, but for the ZiPS projection system, there is no winter respite. The 2027 season is (hopefully) just around the corner, and as has been the case every year going back to 2005, it’s time to start rolling out projections.
For those new to my projections, ZiPS is a computer projection system I initially developed in 2002–04. It was officially released to the public in 2005, after it had reached a level of non-craptitude I was content with. The origins of ZiPS are similar to Tom Tango’s Marcel the Monkey, coming out of discussions I had in the late 1990s with Chris Dial, one of my best friends (our first interaction involved Chris calling me an expletive!) and a fellow stat nerd. ZiPS quickly evolved from its original version as a reasonably simple projection system, and now it both does a lot more and uses a lot more data than I ever envisioned it would 20 years ago. At its core, however, it’s still engaged in two primary tasks: estimating what the baseline expectation for a player is at the moment I hit the button, and then estimating what that player might do in the future using large cohorts of relatively similar players.
So why is ZiPS named ZiPS? At the time, Voros McCracken’s theories on how pitching, defense, and balls in play interact were fairly new, and since I wanted to integrate some of his findings, I decided (with his blessing) that the name of my system should rhyme with DIPS (defense-independent pitching statistics). I didn’t like SIPS, so I went with the next letter in my last name. I originally named my work ZiPs as a nod to CHiPs, one of my favorite shows to watch as a kid, but I mis-typed ZiPs as ZiPS when I released the projections publicly, and since my now-colleague Jay Jaffe had already reported on ZiPS for his Futility Infielder blog, I chose to just go with it. I never expected that all of this would be useful to anyone but me; if I had, I would have named it in less bizarre fashion. Read the rest of this entry »
As awards season bores its way on to the baseball offseason calendar, we thought we’d take a moment to spotlight some guys who won’t get any of the love in those categories but had tremendous seasons nonetheless.
The following five players all found major success in 2026 by improving some specific part of their game, but their numbers didn’t jump off the page enough to make them an All-Star or a finalist for any major hardware. As such, we have a quintet of players who each finished the most recent campaign with less than 3.0 WAR, but were worth your attention all year, and stand to be even more enticing moving forward. Read the rest of this entry »
Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to my first chat of the offseason. Last week I had my parents in town and the site was mostly dark for election day, so we hit the Jackson Pollock/Lee Krasner exhibit at the Metropolitan Museum of Art — I can't recommend it enough!
Jay Jaffe
Last week also marked the announcement of the 2027 Contemporary Baseball Managers/Umpires/Executives Era Committee ballot, for which I gave the overview here:
It's the most stacked ballot, I think, since the change to the 8-candidate, 3-vote format in 2023, and at some point it might rival the 2022 ones in terms of future Hall of Famers.
Since then, I've run profiles of Lou Piniella, Bill White, and yesterday Joe Maddon (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2027-contemporary-baseball-era-c…). I'm deep into researching and writing up Dusty Baker for the next one. What a fascianting career and life!
Philip Christy
Did you get an awards vote this year?
Jay Jaffe
It's awards season, but no, I don't have a vote. As I'm in the New York chapter, it's not hard to find enough voters for the various awards, but in smaller markets, my FanGraphs colleagues do get to vote. I know Meg Rowley was among those who voted for the NL Rookie of the Year last night; she had Carson Benge and JJ Wetherholt and Nolan MacLean ahead of Sal Stewart, who won. I would have done the same — I think I had them here in that order awhile back, and some took umbrage at my not elevating Stewart with his big RBI total over them. Jeff Zimmerman voted for Kevin McGonigle in the AL ROY vote, which is whom I'd have chosen. https://bbwaa.com/26-nl-roy/
I expect Dan Szymborski has a vote somewhere in here, and there may be others.
RMD4
Wouldn't they be better off releasing all award winners within a couple days of the World Series being over? Probably get more eyes and ears that way…
Jay Jaffe
Are you kidding? It's a very dead spot on the baseball calendar, and MLB, MLB Network, and the BBWAA are happy to provide four evenings of programming.
Mike Z
PCA was best player in NL by 4 FWAR and led Cubs to playoffs – should anyone who uses a first place MVP for someone else have their voting privileges revoked?
Jay Jaffe
Eh, I know that sentiments like that are often played for laughs or outrage, and I'm not above that flavor of hyperbole once in awhile, but the point of a vote, rather than a statistical system or an award for leading the league in WAR is to let human judgment into the equation. You can't give people an opening for subjective decisions — especially when it comes to the very vaguely defined "value" — and then demand they all see things the same way OR ELSE.
That said, I do expect PCA to be a unanimous choice given his late-season surge and Ohtani's collapse.
drplantwrench
any memories or stories about the recently deceased Bob Boone?
Jay Jaffe
I'm pretty sure Boone was among the players in the first two packs of baseball cards my mom bought me, the Topps 1978 set. My younger brother and I pored over those cards and tried to pay the game on the back (each card had a batter outcome — single, double, triple, home run, strikeout, etc). I still remember most of those cards because visual memory is a superpower i inherited from my paternal grandmother. Kent Tekulve, Manny Sanguillen, Billy Martin, and Rob Picciolo were some of the ones in that subset; later I went back and completed the set.
Jay Jaffe
Boone, of course, was a staple of the Phillies, who made the playoffs five times from 1976-81, and so I saw a lot of him on TV during those postseasons against the Dodgers and when the Phillies won it all in 1980. He was a good glove man and handler of pitchers, and at his peak he could hit reasonably well. He lasted forever at catcher, so long that when he retired he held the record for games caught before Carlton Fisk and Ivan Rodriguez (Pudge and Pudge) surpassed him. And of course he was the middle man in a 3-generation dynasty, the son of Ray and father of Aaron and Bret. A pretty full baseball life. RIP
crew87
some articles' videos are auto-playing with sound (I'm a logged in member)– the cooper pratt article was one. Can you run it up the flagpole to see if that can be addressed? It's a real problem when I'm trying to read fangraphs while coasting through zoom calls!
Jay Jaffe
Hmm. I'll pass that along. I've never seen a setting to autoplay when I embed videos, so I'd check your browser preferences
Jonathan Adelman
Do you think any Negro League players are high-probability inductees the next time they're eligible?
Jay Jaffe
I wouldn't hold my breath. Both Vic Harris and John Donaldson made pretty solid showings on the 10-man ballot that elected Buck O'Neil and Bud Fowler on the 2022 Early Baseball ballot, for which the candidates' main contributions happened prior to 1950, but both received five or fewer votes on the 2025 Classic ballot for those whose main contributions happened before 1980. Unless and until the Hall makes it easier to consider those players in a context more reflective of their era, it's going to be hard to get any of them elected even with the explosion of research (and MLB's belated recognition of their leagues as major) in that area.
Marc Kartman
Bobby Grich and Lou Whitaker are, I believe, generally considered the two best second basemen not in the HOF. When (if ever) do you think they will be considered again and what are their chances of ever being elected?
Jay Jaffe
I'm hopeful Whitaker will be on the 2028 Classic ballot a year from now. Ideally Grich as well, but so many candidates from that era have been endlessly recycled that they've crowded him out, and the new rule about eligibility on the next ballot, double-edge sword though it is, doesn't officially apply to the 2025 vote.
Baseball Learner
How do you feel about Sal Stewart winning will lesser advanced stats. There is a part of me that thinks that awards like ROY aren't strictly about "value" and that having fan palatable statistics and the excitement of legit slug from a rookie should count a little extra. Do you agree?
Jay Jaffe
Particularly for ROY, I don't think one has to go strictly by the numbers because some key rookies often aren't in the majors at the start of the season, though the PPI system has changed that equation somewhat. I get why Stewart is popular but man, I'm never gonna wave the pompoms for the RBI guy winning out when we have better measures. Benge going 20-20 with excellent defense should be every bit as exciting to a ball-knowing fan as Stewart driving in runs.
drplantwrench
what do you think luis robert jr will be like next year?
Jay Jaffe
I hope he's healthy and productive but the dude has averaged 90 games, an 87 wRC+, and 0.8 WAR in the past three seasons so I'm not exactly optimistic.
war2d2
Jay! Great wrote up about Joe Maddon, even though as a Cubs fan I personally don’t see Maddon’s case for the Hall. My unpopular opinion (at least among Cubs fans) is that if Theo had hired Francona instead of Maddon and signed Scherzer instead of Lester they’d have won more than one ring. My personal feeling is that he ranks somewhere behind both Gaston and Johnson, and they both have better resumés. No real question, just appreciated your writeup!
Jay Jaffe
Thanks for the kind words. I see Francona as a stronger case for the Hall than Maddon but not necessarily the more interesting and innovative manager. Maybe you're right about how things would have played out on the alternate scenario you've suggested but what strikes me is how abruptly Maddon's tenure ended in Chicago. I think it was Ricketts (and Theo) being wary of long-term investments in players and I'm not sure Francona wold have fared better.
Jay Jaffe
I would put Johnson ahead of Maddon in the short career/innovative and influential/1 World Series win batch even before considering Johnson's solid major league playing career.
MuadDib
Hi Jay, I have long agreed with you that pre-testing = Wild West, but a positive test is a DQ. But I've recently changed on Manny and A-Rod, and I'm wondering if I can pull you over too. My re-frame was due to a hypothetical: what if Mike Trout tested positive today? His career until now has been transcendent, and, critically, verifiably clean. As such, he'd still get my vote. I respect that you may disagree… but if you could see yourself bending here, then I think A-Rod and Manny deserve the same. They had late positives but in their cases, I think people see those positives and extrapolate to assume they were using pre-testing as well. And though probably true, I think we should push back. It's to their detriment, not their benefit, that they played in an era when MLB catastrophically failed to both police and protect their players. And as such they deserve to be treated as innocent up to those tests. If a Trout candidacy could (maybe) survive a late positive, so too should theirs.
Jay Jaffe
The problem with what you're suggesting is that even before Manny and A-Rod were suspended for violating a policy of which they had to be aware, both were reported as having failed the 2003 survey test. Yes, that was supposed to be anonymous, and in my ballot deliberations I haven't used that as disqualifying (e.g., I voted for Ortiz and Sosa), but that was because neither of those two guys were shown to have violated the post-testing rules.
Jay Jaffe
The fact that Manny and A-Rod illustrated their lack of common sense in other ways in public doesnn't help their cause either. I don't see myself flipping for either of them.
Jonathan Adelman
I'm curious – would you say your personal list of "why aren't these guys in the Hall??" players matches what JaWS has to say?
Jay Jaffe
My "want" list isn't in order of JAWS — we know why Bonds and Clemens aren't in the Hall even apart from what the numbers say. The numbers are great, and I'd prefer they were in the Hall, but if I had to choose Bonds or a criminally overlooked guy like Whitaker for wom my metric brings things into focus I'd choose the latter.
What's more a lot of the guys on my want list are eithe Negro Leagues/pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball candidates or nonplayers , so we can't go by JAWS there either.
Kevin Downe
Hi Jay! Any insight into why the BBHOF is really the MLB (with a smattering of Negro Leagues) HOF? As an ice hockey fan, “it’s the HOCKEY hall of fame, not the NHL hall of fame” is often used as justification for electing a player who excelled in the KHL as well as the NHL, for instance. Why is this not the case in baseball? Is it just the bare fact that it was originally such a one country sport, or has the hall explicitly addressed this question?
Jay Jaffe
it's the *National* Baseball Hall of Fame, which meant USA when it was established in 1936 and has been expanded to include Canada because it's part of MLB; put an MLB team in Mexico City and those players would be eligible too. Membership is voted upon by American and Canadian writers who had the most exposure to those players, whereas they didn't get to see or cover players in Japan, Cuba, etc.
daml91
Are we going to be waiting a while on Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe despite their reinstatement? I just don't see how a process that has been so unfriendly to Bonds and Clemens comes close to electing those two.
Jay Jaffeedited
I don't like the newish "two strikes" rule but I'm hopeful that if either Rose or Jackson is on the next Classic ballot that they'll be rejected so resoundingly (5 votes or fewer) that they'd be ineligible for a 2031 ballot, and then if that were to happen a second time, they'd be "permanently" ineligible.
I'd be surprised if the two-strikes system gets that far. Some great manager or Negro Leagues legend is going to slip through the cracks and the blowback of ruling them out permanently won't be great for the Hall.
dodgerdog
Do you agree with the HOF’s decision to put Joe Maddon on a ballot before Mike Scioscia? Scioscia had 268 more wins, a higher winning percentage and more division titles. He also managed the same team for 19 years and was never fired. The Angels have been around for 66 seasons and Scioscia is their lone WS manager. And FWIW, his 2002 Angels were just the second team ever to win a WS without any players to ever make the HOF, win a league MVP or Cy Young award.
Jay Jaffe
The decision on who gos on the ballot is made by the 11-member Historical Overview Committee, not the Hall itself., and it's possible Scioscia narrowly missed inclusion. That he won just one pennant while Maddon won two might have been the separator. Of course, down the road this could work out to Scioscia's advantage given the possibility that Baker and Bochy get in, but then again, Francona is going to be a strong candidate at some point down the road.
war2d2
I realize I’m way too into the weeds on why the 2016 Cubs became the MLB equivalent of the 1985 Bears, but it seemed at the time that as early as 2018 Maddon had completely lost the clubhouse, and they needed to be quicker to change gears. I agree that the Ricketts’s inability or disinterest in investing in the team played a larger role, but at the time there were a lot of complaints coming out from “unnamed players” in local media about a lack of professionalism and commitment to winning. I realize he runs some people the wrong way but Willson Contreras was the only one willing to go on record saying as much at the time.
Jay Jaffe
There's probably some truth to what you're saying. I did note in the Maddon piece that the sentiment that he had become less hands-on with and accessible to players was conveyed to him by Theo in the 2018–19 offseason. Maybe it was too late by then
Jay Jaffe
I just pulled up our new-ish Projected Standings archive, which shows that the Cubs were 7 wins below their Pythag and 5 below their BaseRuns projected records. We tend to credit managers for teams that outperform those things — sequencing is kind of random, but bullpen usage can reflect the manager's touch — so it makes sense that we at least note when they underpeform.
MuadDib
I guess where I disagree with considering the survey test (even if only done in situations where it's part of a larger body of evidence in combination with a later positive test) is that what I'm saying is that I don't even *care* if they were using pre-testing. Yes, given their lack of common sense and all the circumstantial evidence they were almost certainly using all along. But to me, that makes them victims, not perpetrators. I'm not saying that their careers to that point *were* clean, just that any guilt during that time should be placed so squarely on MLB that we might as well think of them that way.
Perhaps chat isn't the right forum for this though, there's so much to say. So let me also say that I 100% appreciate and believe your approach is the right one, and wish other voters were able to take such a logical, measured stance. You are fighting the right fight! I just wonder (and don't necessarily have an answer for) whether there's room for those two in that fight as well.
Jay Jaffe
Thanks. I can't say I don't *care* about guys using in the pre-testing era, just that I've tried to separate rumor (the bogus "positives list" that circulated back in those days) from reported information, and the leaks do place those guys in a separate category.
Mostly, though, it all sucks and I'm goad I don't have to expend as much energy thinking about this as I did 5-10 years ago.
Eshan Mehere
are jim edmonds or kenny lofton more likely to get in given beltran/jones
Jay Jaffe
Yeah I think their elections help both players' causes. I suspect we'll see Lofton on the next ballot, maybe Edmonds at some point too as the two-strike rule at least stimulates some churn among the candidates.
Phillip Denny
In Michael Baumann's article today on Morejon, he advocates for bringing back the 1970's style relief ace. As for me, I'll take any opportunity to work 1974 Mike Marshall into a conversation. For you though, do you think that multiple/consecutive 100+ IP innings from a reliever will ever be sustainable?
Jay Jaffe
Given how hard most elite relievers are throwing these days I suspect 100+ innings isn't a sustainable model. Pull up a list of 90+ inning relievers in the Statcat era and the top two entries are for Ryan Yarbrough (2018 and '24), he of the opener/bulk framework and the sub-88 fastball.
Jay Jaffe
In fact, a look at the top 10 shows there's only 2 guys whose four-seamers averaged 95 or higher, AJ Blubaugh in 2026 (96 IP, 95.8 mph) — we don't know if he can follow that up — and Derek Law in 2024 (90 IP, 95.1 mph), 9 innings in 2 seasons since due to arm problems.
How much did 2026 ding Skene's potential HOF narrative?
Jay Jaffe
I wouldn't suggest that any active starting pitcher 3 years into his career be subjected to a Hall of Fame narrative. Let's see if he's still pitching at a high level when he's 30.
ajleff
Soto or Lindor higher HOF odds?
Jay Jaffe
Lindor because he's already close to the JAWS standard and playing a skill position that helps him accrue value even when his bat isn't great.
ajleff
Skubal prediction (team and basic structure)?
Jay Jaffe
Mets. With an opt-out somewhere early.
drplantwrench
what are your thoughts on team expansion? i feel like diluting the talent pool should be treated very very carefully
Jay Jaffe
We've gone longer since the last round of expansion than we did at any time between 1961 and '98. The player pool has enlarged greatly in that time through US population growth and the influx of elite Asian players. Remember, prior to Ichiro's 2001 arrival, no Japanese position player had even come over.
Phillip Denny
Coming back to NL ROY – why did TJ Rumfield get screwed so hard? Objectively he was the best hitting NL rookie with 500+ PA, and you can't hand waive it as Coors effect because he actually had a higher wRC+ on the road (132) than at Coors (116). Simple as HR go brrrr or….?
Jay Jaffe
I wouldn't go so far as to call it a perfect storm but: 1B with non-traditional offensive profile, added value from defense that could be ignored if only focusing on triple crown stats, anti-Coors Field bias, and the ease of ignoring the Rockies due to their perennial loserdom. Tough break.
ajleff
Skubal: 8/$320m with opt-outs after years 3 and 6? Trades overall length for opt outs.
Jay Jaffe
I'd guess he either tops Yamamoto's $325 million or Scherzer/Verlander's $43.3 million AAV for the purposes of bragging rights. not sure about where the opt-outs would be but one after year two or three makes sense.
Jay Jaffe
OK folks, I gotta see a man about a toothpick so it's time to wrap this up. Thanks so much for stopping by, and have a great week!
At least nine times during the 2026 season, a replay review overturned a hit-by-pitch. It may well have happened more often, but I found nine pitches that went down as foul balls because the umpire awarded the batter first base after an apparent hit-by-pitch, only for the defending team to successfully challenge that the ball hit the bat instead. Once every two or three weeks, a batter grabbed his hand and exclaimed, “Ye gods, I’ve been struck!”
Only for the catcher to arise and reply, “I’ll prove the contrary, thou subtle, perjured, false, disloyal man! Thy club’s the thing withstood th’ offending sphere.”
At which point the Mattress Firm Supermo replay intoned with just the right level of firmness, “Forsooth, this catcher is the messenger of truth.”
And the umpire had no choice but to swallow his pride and announce to the fans, “Lo, through the proof of the Mattress Firm Supermo replay I see how I’m hoodwink’d. Behold my fingers three.”
These may not be exact quotes, but you get the point. It’s not particularly rare for a hit-by-pitch to get overturned. However, during the 2026 season, I was hoping that we’d see one particular variety of hit-by-pitch get overturned. It is my favorite kind of hit-by-pitch, which I now realize seems like a weird thing to say. To be clear, I’m not in favor of people getting hit by pitches. However, as long as people are getting hit by pitches, I prefer for it to happen in a way that doesn’t involve injuries but instead involves some element of silliness. For example, this ball that hit Joey Votto in 2022 has a lot going for it. The first is the eloquence with which Votto expressed his feelings about getting hit, so please turn your volume up. Read the rest of this entry »
I think they’re out of their minds. Me? I would’ve had Morejon no lower than fifth in this caffeine free Diet Pepsi of a free agent class, perhaps as high as third. I’d give Morejon $100 million over five years without blinking.
I don’t get the sense that I’m sticking my neck out too far by saying this; someone’s going to pay over the odds for this non-closer reliever because they think they can translate his upper-90s velocity and elite groundball rate to the rotation. Morejon got four or more outs in 25 of his 78 regular-season appearances in 2026, and he has the elite changeup that conventional wisdom requires from a lefty starter.
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about who started the “Nerds!” chant at the Brewers championship parade and a pair of POBOs who appear to be sneaky-jacked, plus the Mariners’ new manager, MLB’s cap quasi-concession, and whether an MLB player will issue a Wemby-esque statement about not sponsoring certain products. Then (54:14) they conduct the 12th annual free agent contract over/under draft.
Even though the offseason has technically begun, we’re currently in the lull between the end of the World Series and the real start of hot stove season. Teams are just about done with the annual housekeeping necessary to prepare their rosters for the winter, but the big moves are still on the horizon and the owner’s lockout is looming. That means it’s as good a time as any to take stock of how each team measures up.
The rankings below present each team as they are currently constructed, based on our Depth Charts playing time projections. This should give us a pretty good idea of which teams would be ready to compete if the 2027 season started today, and which teams have a lot of work ahead of them this offseason. I’ll start with teams projected to finish below .500, and then will have the top half of the rankings later this week.
Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. For these offseason rankings, I’ve pulled the Depth Charts projections and calculated an implied Elo ranking for each team. Our projections are entirely powered by the 2027 Steamer projections right now; the ZiPS projections will be added later on in the offseason. The delta column in the full rankings below shows the change in ranking from the final regular season run of the power rankings.
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