The first full week of the offseason has already come and gone, with qualifying offers extended, options exercised or declined, and several waiver claims and minor transactions made. The front office carousel also got underway, with the A’s hiring Taylor Smith as their president of baseball operations and Cam Castro as their general manager, the Orioles hiring Jared Banner as their general manager under president of baseball operations Mike Elias, the Astros hiring Randy Flores to be their GM, and the Cardinals promoting Rob Cerfolio to be their GM under president of baseball ops Chaim Bloom.
In other news, the Nationals and center fielder Jacob Young agreed to a four-year, $23 million extension, the first multi-year deal of the offseason. Young, 27, was set to hit free agency after the 2029 season, so this keeps him around for one more year at a $5.75 million AAV, with an $8 million club option for 2031. It’s a deal that makes sense for both sides; Young gets more guaranteed money up front during his arbitration years, while the Nationals get a high-floor center fielder at a set cost and at a time when the financial structures of the sport are subject to change during the upcoming collective bargaining agreement negotiations. I expect there will be a flurry of other extensions over the next three-plus weeks, as teams and players look for some long-term security before the current CBA expires and the lockout begins. It’s also likely that at least a few of our top 50 free agents will sign before then, as they look for certainty heading into what could be a long layoff. That’s what happened five years ago, when the Rangers signed both Corey Seager and Marcus Semien to large, long-term deals, the Tigers signed Javier Báez for six years and $140 million, and the Mets added Max Scherzer for three years and $130 million, a lucrative $43.3 million AAV.
We’ll talk a little bit more about contract terms later in this mailbag when we discuss mutual options. We’ll also answer your questions on where special neutral-site games should be played in states without major league teams, book recommendations to learn about analytics, and how ZiPS determines its postseason odds. But first, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, please visit our Patreon.
With Meg Rowley sidelined by an ill-timed landscapers visit, Ben Lindbergh brings on two great guests. First, Japanese baseball expert Yuri Karasawa (aka Yakyu Cosmopolitan) joins to talk about the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks dynasty, whether the Hawks’ success has induced a Dodgers-esque backlash or desire for a salary cap, NPB’s adoption of the pitch clock and universal DH, the league’s partial offensive bounceback, Yuri’s MLB expectations for Teruaki Sato, Kaima Taira, and Hiromi Itoh, whether Japanese fans are frustrated by the departures of so many NPB stars, whether losing top amateur talents such as Shoki Oda poses an existential threat to Japanese pro ball, how to follow NPB from afar, and more. Then (1:03:39) Ben welcomes Michael McClellan, newly promoted director of analytics for the Rockies, to talk about leaving the Rays for the Rockies, how the Rockies can catch up to earlier data adopters, how to handle Coors Field, quantifying pitch-calling, what teams are looking for in applicants, how teams are (and aren’t) using AI, and more.
With the 2026 season in the books and a narrow window of transaction time upon us before an inevitable lockout, it’s time to start a new player evaluation cycle at FanGraphs. This includes 30 farm system deep dives, and updates to next year’s domestic draft and international amateur scouting reports on the site. But first, as has become tradition, it’s time to examine the notable pro players in Asia. Every offseason there are several fellows who are either native Asian players attempting to make a transition to MLB, or former MLB-affiliated players who are attempting to come back after some time abroad. Players in both camps tend to make a meaningful impact on the following MLB season, be it Munetaka Murakami, Foster Griffin, Kazuma Okamoto, Robert Suarez, or Drew Anderson. My goal at the start of every offseason is to give readers a thorough report on the players whose matriculation is imminent, as well a spyglass look at who lies over the horizon.
In this piece I’ll have the players clustered into buckets dictated by their anticipated arrival and write a bit about them in each section, but my preferential list of all the players and their full scouting reports are over on The Board. You should open The Board (seriously) in a new tab and traffic back and forth between it and this article. Also, remember we now have NPB and KBO leaderboards on the site, which I used heavily (along with DeltaGraphs and Yakyu Cosmopolitan) to sift through statistics and flag players to ask my sources about and/or perform my own visual scouting assessment via Synergy or TruMedia, whatever I can get my hands on. To give readers as thorough an understanding as possible, I’ve got video linked and embedded throughout this post for the players I think are most visually striking. Read the rest of this entry »
My update to Asian Pro players is now live on the board. The accompanying piece is with editing and I will link to it when it's published.
Eric Longenhagen
Okay, let's get to your questions.
Bud Smith
What's the furthest you've ever bumped up a prospect after reevaluating? And what's the furthest someone has dropped?
Eric Longenhagen
The college arms who pop in a big way, like Will Warren and Cam Schlittler, essentially go from nothing to top 100 guys pretty fast.
Eric Longenhagen
Then you have the big money teenagers who you learn pretty quickly are bad, like Roderick Arias.
Resolution
Now that a full season and fall/winter leagues have occurred, have you noticed anything different with the Rockies at all? Could be anything- hitting/pitching approaches, technology, just more scouts/staff?
I think the braintrust has been around more. Depo, Byrnes, Tanous… you see them around. Idk if there's anything else tangible that I've noticed but I'm sure there are things I'm just spacing on.
Definitely Not an AI Bot
Did you see any of Tekoah Roby in the AFL? What's his outlook in '27?
Eric Longenhagen
Roby is one of the guys who I have yet to see. Will get him this weekend, though.
Eric Longenhagen
The chatter has been positive. Would anticipate he's a '27 graduate.
I do, but I'm not convinced he's an average everyday player, though I know scouts who are, including the one who drove the bus on acquiring him in that deal. He can play defense, he's strong. I think he's gonna K a lot.
wschuyle
Noticed you and BG seem to view Dax Kilby's ability to stay at SS differently. When that happens for scouts is it typically different evaluation on their skills or a different emphasis on which skills are most important for given position (say arm for a SS).
Eric Longenhagen
I think it's "bias on look", if I see Kilby airmail a couple of throws in the 6 games I see, I'm gonna worry he can't play there. If Brendan doesn't see that, he probably won't. Teruaki Sato, video when watched in reverse chronological order, shows him airmailing several throws within the first 20 attempts, so we're on the same page there. Some of it is I am meaner/more miserly than Brendan, who wants to give the players the benefit of the doubt and time to develop.
Eric Longenhagen
I think defense is more of an inherent thing.
Broken Bat
Eric, thanks for both your #1. Passion #2. Dedication, to providing honest feedback in regards to these many prospects. It’s understandable there will be both hit and misses, but you sure seem to get a lot more accurate than some of the other forecasters. Nice job.
Eric Longenhagen
Hey thanks, it feels good to have done this long enough to be comfortable being wrong, and to not get defensive when I am. The couple of studies that have been done (Lindbergh sends me one every now and then) tend to agree with you.
Eric Longenhagen
At least, I think I use the entire scouting scale in a way that is most useful.
muenstertruck
General thoughts on the 2027 draft class? Last I read, the Guardians have 6 picks in the first ~100. Please remember that I will cling to your response as a beacon of hope as the lockout kicks in and the temperatures drop.
Eric Longenhagen
I like the top 10 and think that group is deeper than usual. Didn't love the HS guys during the summer and think the overall depth is below average. Heavy on college arms, that group tends to have some injury attrition during the spring.
Schu1719
Do you have a general outline & timeline of what we can look forward to this offseason with BG on board for a full offseason? Status quo/same stuff be done sooner/new content
Eric Longenhagen
We have some technical tweaks to go over with Meg and Sean regarding possible data viz and changes to the system overview section, Once that stuff is cleared will be rolling at a little better pace than before. Brendan already has a couple of his lists mostly done.
Eric Longenhagen
I have all this data and wanna have an accordion feature like we do on the top 100, but instead of the distribution graphs, I want it to be data viz spider graphs or even just a year-to-year breakdown of a few key metrics for these guys.
Eric Longenhagen
Some of that might be easy for Sean to do, and some might be harder.
Jeremy Fox
Is every prospect who vaguely resembles Miz (*cough* Susana *cough*) now overrated, at least by fans?
Eric Longenhagen
Mmmm kinda? Guys who throw hard and that's it do not equal Miz. Susana doesn't have nearly the same kind of fluidity, he's more like Duran to me.
Eric Longenhagen
It's tough because, who resembles Miz?
Eric Longenhagen
On some level, being a unicorn has its own value, but sometimes that's Miz, and sometimes that's Altuve.
Broken Bat
Once the prospects get called up and get an opportunity, but don’t run with it right away, and struggle, what do you view as a potential alarm? Chase, swing and miss. Hard hit, ground balls- launch angle, low walk rate, etc. What skill say in following year after Cup of Coffee can get better just with getting older and adding experience for position players.
Eric Longenhagen
I try not to get too over my skis in either direction. Trout, Judge, Utley… there are several HoF caliber players who initial taste was sour. I do know there are people in the game who think if you don't perform or show improvement during your first six or eight weeks, that they think you're cooked. I think there are too many examples of players improving (period, sometimes that means going from good to great, sometimes from fringe-y to decent) to say that's true.
rickdugo3000
what's preventing franklin primera from being turbo elite? obviously the models must love a 19 yo catcher with a .367/.499/.581 and 48:36 bb:k, who kept it up in A ball. Is this a deeper question about stats v scouting? Like why is this not surefire t50 with a great chance to be t10 by midseason?
Eric Longenhagen
physically mature kid with basically no projection.
Definitely Not an AI Bot
How does one value a prospect who will definitely make the big leagues and also definitely have a ceiling as a UT/RP? Big leaguers have value, but…?
Eric Longenhagen
Are you talking about in fantasy? You probably shouldn't value that guy. Here we use grades, where a 45 is like a premium utility man, lefty platoon bat, or set-up man, 40 is more like a true reserve who's on the roster because you need a second shortstop or a guy who takes at-bats against righties, a more limited role, middle reliever. We value them but more for the role rather than war production, since war production is a counting stat that true everyday players are compared to one another via
kbert
Is the International Players tab of The Board getting an update soon?
The Cardinals need to fill holes at CF and 3B by the start of 2028. Will players already in their system be the answers at one or both spots, or do you think they will need to go outside the organization to meaningfully improve at either spot?
Eric Longenhagen
I would guess they keep things in-house at 3B and see what a combo of Gorman/Fermin/Saggese, etc can do. They have depth there. In CF they don't. Vic Scott is playing in winter ball, haven't seen enough of him to know if he' looks better. CF FA market is tough, they could always trade a catcher for a 3B/CF but idk which org has a CF surplus off the top of my head. Buxton for a catcher with Jeffers out the door in MIN?
Justin
Do you ever talk to cistuli
Eric Longenhagen
Yes, but his cell phone plan is weird now that he lives in Canada.
Eric Longenhagen
He's good, he says. "Uh… sure, you can say hello for me."
tdmoc
How's Ike Irish looked this fall? In my brief looks it was a lot of groundballs but also fly balls smoked to left center
Eric Longenhagen
Ditto. Good corner platoon bat, nice piece. Needs a Manny Margot type caddy as a RH/defense first pairing.
mdust10
How do you view 1B shaking out for the Brewers assuming Bauers is gone? Could one or both of Luke Adams and Blake Burke be a ready made solution?
Eric Longenhagen
I think those are both interesting in-house options along with Vaughn . Some 1B reps for Contreras also makes sense.
Jeremy Fox
The Brewers seem to be very good at helping their prospects become the best versions of themselves, rather than drafting and developing for lift-and-pull hitters or max velo pitchers. How much do orgs vary in terms of how much they seek to draft and develop the most valuable traits (pull-side power; velo) vs. how much they just try to draft players who are good at some things and can get better at other things?
Eric Longenhagen
Huge differences. There are teams who draft pitchability guys and then develop velo (Cleveland, New York) and there are orgs who draft good hitters and try to make them strong (Milwaukee, Tampa) and there are teams who are willing to consider moving guys up the defensive spectrum (Sacramento, Detroit) because they had good prior reports on players at those positions.
beanbong
out of the braves system, who's got a better chance of hitting their way up in the next 2 seasons: Hartman or Southisene? Hartman seems like the higher ceiling because of the power-speed combo, but Southisene is probably a major league hitter and up-the-middle defender, even if it's 2B and a 90 wRC+
Eric Longenhagen
I like Southisense's feel to hit more. DOn't think he's an INF tho
Jeremy Fox
Can you give us a preview of what you're thinking of writing about during the apparently-inevitable lockout? Any ideas for new projects you're thinking of pursuing?
Eric Longenhagen
Well the minor league stuff will be happening more or less like normal, so there's that. I wanna write about autograph culture and meiji university and do more self-evaluation type stuff that is slightly different than the How's My Driving pieces.
Jonathan Adelman
Jake Bloss' velo had been down in the AFL but has started to tick back up. How dependant will his success be on getting back to the late summer velo he teased before the teres major injury?
Eric Longenhagen
I'm less concerned about his velo and more about his command. His fastball rides enough that if it's "only" sitting 94-96 but located well, it'll play.
Lotta Samil Serrano questions in chat today. De Los Santos is really athletic and projectable, also very chase prone and is gonna K a lot. Really exciting player with some bust risk because of the Ks. Serrano had a great DSL season, data looks awesome. Definitely has some misreads in here, he has a 123 max exit that simply isn't real. COvers the inner half really well, think he's a nice hit-tool oriented prospect whose swing has lovely natural loft. Not overly physical, could break out if he can add muscle without getting stiff. Already squaring it up consistently. Probably the equivalent of a first round HS prospect.
Charles Bengal Tiger
Does Bodine block Flewelling as catcher of the future for the Rays? Or is Flewelling too raw to even be in that conversation?
Eric Longenhagen
The latter, for now. There's a chance Bodine entrenches himself so much that the Rays just decide to make Flewelling into Soderstrom.
Jonathan Adelman
Have you ever been tempted to buy baseball cards of prospects you think that market is undervaluing? Or does it seem like a money pit even for knowledgeable insiders?
Eric Longenhagen
Nah. I have been tempted to try to move the market on a lie for Machiavellian funsies. The only cards i collect are to fill out my MLB Showdown collection and dual sport athletes. I have some cool Brian Jordan/Deion Sanders stuff and whatnot.
Of arms yet to debut, does S Hernandez, R Sloan, J Susana, L Doyle and Zazueta seem like an agreeable top 5? Maybe J Flora is next in line to join that group?
Eric Longenhagen
Healthy Thomas White at least belongs next to Doyle. I'd take Gage Wood, Anthony Eyanson, and Flora over Zazueta, who doesn't have a good breaking ball.
Jonathan Adelman
The new International board is awesome, and it reminds me of Roki Sasaki and what an interesting odyssey his career has been so far. What FV would you give Sasaki right now?
Eric Longenhagen
45+
Sam
Are you seeing Kyle DeBarge making adjustments that might help him make enough contact to have a chance at an everyday role, or does this feel more like taking advantage of less refined pitching?
Eric Longenhagen
The latter, but he's a big leaguer. Good utility guy, A bit less physical than Ezequiel Duran but could play that kind of role.
You mean striking out 25% of the time and slugging under .400 while everyone glazes him?
Eric Longenhagen
Give it another year, I can see why you're making the comp. I think Brito does a little more at 2B and a little less in CF (Ewing is good btw, I'm just joshing)
Definitely Not an AI Bot
Re: the college arms and others who pop, what about them makes them pop to evaluators? Is there something subsurface that doesn't appear until they hit the minors? Or is it minor league dev changing something to unlock a hidden talent? Seems like some orgs routinely add a few mph to guys' fastballs pretty quickly.
Eric Longenhagen
Yes. This is where some of the strength and flexibility testing comes into play. There are physical traits that you can measure when you get your hands on the player at your facility that help you understand the players capacity for strength, or learn what their deficiencies are so you know what to work on after you draft them. Like Schlittler the Yankees might have known he's so underdeveloped, but has huge capacity, so let's take this human construction crane and see what happens….
Eric Longenhagen
Sometimes it has nothing to do with sports science and is just intel from your people who know the college pitching coach sucks, or whatever. But the space in which people are evaluating has less to do with the tool grades (which are more measurable now than ever) and more with the aptitude/athleticism/secondary traits that might indicate the baseball skills can improve.
eccentricatlfan
Admittedly more of a post-prospects question, but curious about your thoughts on Jack Perkins and if you think about him sticking as a starter (or at least away from the bandbox he’s called home). Been looking into him for a good bit (particularly as a four-seam/sinker tunneling candidate like the Rays implemented a lot this past season), but curious if your thoughts have changed any on him.
Eric Longenhagen
I can see why they want him to start because of his build and delivery, but to me his command has always been so bad that I thought it was a long shot.
nebravesfan33
Any update on Jan 15th International Signing Day? I think Braves fans will fall apart if Alfredo Sena isn't part of the organization on 1/15/2027.
Eric Longenhagen
From what I've heard it will still happen but it might not happen in Januar. I think MLB would love to push it another six months. It will mean that since the pandemic they've pushed it a year.
sammysamsam
Based on whats going on in the AFL, how does Patrick Reilly compare to the other intriguing Os upper minors arms (Dzierwa, Hunter, Gongora, Forrett, etc)
If defense is more of an inherent thing, who would the Dodgers prefer play an inning in LF in a game today, Josue De Paula or Eric Longenhagen?
Eric Longenhagen
Today? JDP. In 2010? Bro, I'm playing CF.
kbert
Is Hyun Min Ahn 안현민 on your radar at all? Was a name I was expecting to see on the Board based on stats alone, but I don't have much more context there.
Eric Longenhagen
He's in the piece that should be published today. Actually looking at Slack, Martell has notes for me I need to fix some stuff.
Eric Longenhagen
Gimme like 1 minute
Eric Longenhagen
Back
mainesox
Did you get an opportunity to watch either of the Red Sox' top two draft picks play this season (Schaffner and Hull) and do you have any general thoughts on either of them?
Eric Longenhagen
Yes, I like Schaffner (Small school cold weather background, natural feel to hit, non-zero shot to stay at shortstop) and I'm not so hot for Hull whose swing I think is too long for him to hit. I'll be looking for an overhaul this spring.
bubbles
Looking at Asian player updates, I don't see Shoki Oda. Do you think there is realistically no chance he comes straight to the US?
Eric Longenhagen
It's just an asian pro player update. Oda is an amateur. He's likely coming, I would expect he signs in 2027, whenever the signing period actually begins. I wrote more about him in the piece that has yet to publish. He'd be a first round pick if he were a HS pitcher here.
Roby left the AFL didn't he? At least The Cardinal Nation reported that maybe a week plus ago. They just wanted him to get some game innings in and a limited amount with a plan of him heading home early
Eric Longenhagen
I thought he was on the fall stars roster and assumed i had just been missing him over and over
Jeremy Fox
Another Miz-inspired question: what's the advantage of a short stride, if any? Not that Miz-level extension would work for every pitcher, obviously. But watching Miz got me wondering if the short striders of the world are just leaving a lot of meat on the bone in terms of velo, and/or putting extra stress on their arms to achieve high velo. Or am I wrong and short striders as a group tend to gain compensating benefits (maybe command?)
Eric Longenhagen
A shorter stride might change the angle of the pitch or allow it more distance to break in a way that's beneficial.
Eric Longenhagen
Boston shortened Crochet's stride.
Eric Longenhagen
Ok ya'll. Lemme make sure I'm interfacing with Matt as soon as he needs me to. I'm gonna split. Please consume my international pro update this weekend, it's a doozy. Talk to you next week
Hello and welcome to the final installment of the 2026 pitching superlatives. I’ve been spending the entire week tracking down all the pitches at the first and 100th percentiles. The fastest pitches, the ones that move the most, earn the most whiffs, hit the middle of the zone or the corners the most often, or end up getting pounded into the dirt most often. I’d love it if you read the four previous entires, but today we’re going back to where all this started. As I mentioned on Monday, the idea for this series came about because I had been wondering for long time who throws the pitch that moves the least.
Here’s Baseball Savant’s movement chart for Jacob Misiorowski. I picked him simply because I decided I needed an example, and as the best pitcher in the game this year, his was the first name to come to mind.
Misiorowski’s slider averages just 1.8 inches of rise and 3.4 inches of glove-side break. That’s in part because he throws it so damn hard that it doesn’t have much time to move, but it’s also simply the nature of the pitch. The average Misiorowski slider features a total of just 3.8 inches of induced movement. If you glance at just about any pitcher’s movement chart these days, you’re more likely to see a pitch right near the center. Read the rest of this entry »
Braylon Doughty and Joey Oakie profile as future members of the Cleveland Guardians pitching staff. The former boasts a 50 FV and ranks as the organization’s top prospect, while the latter is graded as a 40+ FV who ranks 16th. Each is 20-year-old right-hander who was drafted out of the prep ranks — Doughty 36th overall in 2024, Oakie in the third round that same summer. Their ceilings are high. As Eric Longenhagen and Brendan Gawlowski teamed up to write last winter, “Doughty was arguably the most polished high school pitcher in the 2024 draft,” and “Oakie signed for first-round money [as] a power pitcher with enviable traits.”
Eric Binder knows them as well as anyone. A member of the Guardians’ front office for more than a decade, the now-assistant general manager plays a prominent role in one of baseball’s most well-regarded pitching programs. He has previously shared thoughts on the promising youngsters here at FanGraphs, doing so for a Sunday Notes column in September of last year.
An update was in order when the AL Central champions visited Fenway Park during the final week of this year’s regular season. Binder was in attendance — ditto other members of the organization’s brain trust, as clinching the division title was imminent — so I took the opportunity to learn where the duo stood in terms of their development paths. To wit, how did their seasons unfold, and what are their primary focuses going forward? Read the rest of this entry »
I have a problem. During the broadcast of Game 1 of the World Series, John Smoltz made an offhand comment that contact hitters do a better job of handling long layoffs between series than power hitters. “The eight to nine days off would… cause havoc on most offenses. But this offense is different, it’s not built on slug,” he said before quickly moving on. His partner in the booth, Joe Davis, didn’t even respond; he just pivoted back to the first inning’s action. Smart move – it’s the World Series, no one wants to debate truisms. But while Nick Martinez faced off against Jake Bauers, I was sitting there turning over that pearl of analyst wisdom in my head.
So do contact hitters handle rust better than power hitters? You could tell an intuitive story in the affirmative. They don’t need to connect perfectly with the ball to get to their good results, so they’re less affected by losing their timing thanks to a long gap between games. But you could tell the opposite story using intuition as well: Contact hitters rely on feel and placement. Tiny margins make the difference between flailing at bad pitches and punching them the other way, so being out of sorts might really hurt.
Some quick Googling didn’t settle things; AI mode told me that contact hitters really do suffer less from rust than power hitters. But when I asked to see the statistical evidence, the AI helpfully told me that it could find none and that it had relied on anecdotal evidence to reach its conclusions. Sounds like a job for Mathemadage, my column that investigates conventional wisdom using numbers. Read the rest of this entry »
If you’re anything like us here at FanGraphs HQ, you also spent days agonizing over our annual list of the top 50 free agents on the market this winter. Arguing whether Carson Kelly or Tyler Stephenson should be ranked higher is our unalienable right as sovereign citizens, and it’s also a whole lot of harmless fun. But you may have also noticed, unlike the 2022 ultra-free-agent class that included Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, and Trevor Story, the pickings are quite slim at shortstop this year. Mauricio Dubón and J.P. Crawford — useful, but not building-block players — are the best the position has to offer.
As such, any team with a shortstop-sized hole on its roster would be wiser to peruse the trade market, where two young players with immense talent but without long-term contracts could aptly fill in: Gunnar Henderson of the Orioles and Elly De La Cruz of the Reds.
Let’s begin Henderson. The onetime wunderkind has had an alarming decline in production since putting up 7.9 WAR and a 154 wRC+ as a 23-year-old in 2024. That season — which also came with a .281 batting average, 21 stolen bases, and a fourth-place MVP finish — serves as a reminder of what he is capable of. But a quick check of both his traditional stats and the peripherals shows that he has not been the same hitter since. Part of that, as Henderson revealed after this season, Baltimore’s second straight below .500, has been the result of shoulder and wrist injuries. Diving for a ball in 2025 caused a shoulder impingement that Henderson said negatively influenced his bat plane, and he spent half of 2026 playing with a barking wrist. Davy Andrews covered Henderson’s ailments in depth at the beginning of October, and a fully healed Henderson could certainly bounce back in 2027, but as he tried to grit his way through the last two campaigns, his performance has not been commensurate with that of a superstar player. In the two seasons since his peak, the home run totals have sagged from 37 to 17 and 24, respectively, and his collective slugging percentage is over 100 points lower, going from .529 in 2024 to a lethargic .420 across ’25 and ’26. However you slice the advanced numbers, too, they’re unappetizing. By wRC+, wOBA, xwOBA, xSLG — and perhaps most indicative of physical troubles, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate — Henderson has taken a noticeable step back. Read the rest of this entry »
This post is part of a series covering the 2027 Contemporary Baseball Era Committee Managers/Umpires/Executives ballot, which includes candidates in those categories who made their greatest impact from 1980 to the present. You’ll find an introduction to the ballot here. The eight candidates will be voted on in San Diego on December 6, and anyone receiving at least 75% of the vote from the 16 committee members will be inducted in Cooperstown on July 25, 2027 along with any candidates elected by the BBWAA.
2027 Contemporary Baseball Candidate: Executive Bill White
Player
Career WAR
Peak WAR
JAWS
Bill White
38.6
32.1
35.3
Avg. HOF 1B
65.0
42.1
53.5
H
HR
AVG/OBP/SLG
OPS+
1,706
202
.286/.351/.455
117
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference
In the rules for Era Committee voting published on the Hall of Fame’s website, the provision regarding eligible candidates reads in part, “Those whose careers entailed involvement in multiple categories will be considered for their overall contribution to the game of Baseball; however, the specific category in which these individuals shall be considered will be determined by the role in which they were most prominent.” In theory, this makes sense, but in practice, the various Era Committees have produced rather inconsistent results when it comes to weighing candidates with contributions in multiple areas.
For example, the elections of Gil Hodges and Jim Kaat as players on the 2022 Golden Days ballot suggest an additive effect of their additional contributions — the former as a manager, the latter as a broadcaster — atop long, good-to-great playing careers that didn’t quite measure up as Hall-worthy in the eyes of BBWAA voters or previous committees (to say nothing of JAWS). Yet managers haven’t been treated similarly in the recent past, with Davey Johnson and Lou Piniella each falling short twice and seeming to get less credit for solid playing careers atop stronger (but hardly unassailable) qualifications as skippers. Those careers didn’t put them ahead of similarly qualified managers with no major league playing experience, such as Jim Leyland, who was elected on a 2024 ballot that contained both Johnson and Piniella. Meanwhile, Felipe Alou, whose career WAR is greater than those of Johnson and Piniella combined but whose managerial record is limited by years spent with the impoverished Expos, has never been on an Era Committee ballot. This quickly gets messy. Read the rest of this entry »
Welcome back to our 2026 pitching superlatives series. We discussed velocity in part one, movement in part two, and location in part three. Today we’re talking about results. That means which pitches created the most whiffs or balls in play, which pitches produced certain kinds of batted balls, and which pitches made batters look the silliest.
We have to start with the best result a pitcher can get, and that’s a swinging strike. The top of the list features tons of pitches you’d expect: breaking balls from Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, and Chase Burns. Aaron Ashby’s slider and curveball are both in the top six! But the Whiffiest Pitch in baseball belonged to Luis Medina of the Athletics, whose changeup ran a 59.8% whiff rate. Should we watch every single whiff Medina’s changeup earned this year? Yes, I agree. It’s the only responsible thing to do.
If you’re not familiar with Medina’s game, that’s understandable. He spent the 2023 and 2024 seasons as a starter, ran an ERA above 5.00 in each of them, and missed 2025 due to Tommy John surgery. But he transitioned to the bullpen this year, and he threw 73 innings over 60 appearances, running a 3.08 ERA and a 29.3% strikeout rate. He also had lots of problems. He posted a 12.3% walk rate, a 90-mph average exit velocity, didn’t earn any chases, and didn’t do a great job of keeping the ball on the ground. Basically, whiffs were the only thing keeping Medina afloat. But he seems ripe for an overhaul. He’s got a starter’s repertoire, with a four-seamer, sinker, slider, change, and curve. He led with the four-seamer even though it got shelled. If he shelved it in favor of the sinker and some more sliders and that unhittable changeup, he could be a real weapon. Read the rest of this entry »
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