The American League Championship Series between the Rays and Guardians was a study in contrasts when it came to starting pitching, particularly as the series extended. Tampa Bay’s starters lasted five or more innings in all but one of the six games, with Drew Rasmussen and Freddy Peralta combining for three starts of at least six innings; the former went seven innings and the latter 5 1/3 in the the final two games. Cleveland’s starters reached the five-inning mark just twice and never went deeper than that; over the final three games, the team’s starters — ace Parker Messick and reliever Shawn Armstrong, who was deputized to open Games 4 and 6 — totaled just four innings. Given that imbalance, it was hardly a surprise that the Rays rallied from a 2-1 deficit to win those three and take the series.
The World Series might present a similar contrast. The Rays and the Yankees are the only teams whose starters have averaged at least five innings per turn during this postseason, and Tampa Bay knocked off New York in a Division Series sweep earlier this month. Meanwhile, the Brewers are one of five teams whose starters have averaged less than four innings per turn; only twice did a Milwaukee starter even last five innings, with Logan Henderson reaching that mark in Game 2 of the NLDS against the Padres and Robert Gasser doing so in Game 3 of the NLCS against the Dodgers. Jacob Misiorowski — the likely NL Cy Young winner, who even before the playoffs had already exceeded his total workload from last year by more than 30 innings — burned through 88 pitches to complete four innings in his NLDS start and 94 to go 4 1/3 in his NLCS start. For the Brewers and Rays, those divergent approaches have worked. Tampa Bay went a combined 7-2 in the ALDS and ALCS; Milwaukee, 7-1 in the NLDS and NLCS.
After a season in which he ranked third in the AL in FIP (2.81) and WAR (5.0) and fourth in ERA (2.67), Rasmussen began his postseason by no-hitting the Yankees for 7 2/3 innings in the Division Series opener. In three starts totaling 21 innings, he’s delivered a 1.29 ERA and a 2.58 FIP. Peralta, who struggled during his four months as a Met before righting himself somewhat as a Ray following a deadline deal, has put up a 1.13 ERA and a 3.72 FIP in 16 innings as a starter, on top of which he added two-thirds of an inning out of the bullpen in ALCS Game 4; that cherry on top of his two strong starts helped him win series MVP honors. While their third and fourth starters, Nick Martinez and Griffin Jax, haven’t been as effective, the Rays’ postseason rotation ERA is good enough to crack the top 10 dating back to the start of division play in 1969:
Lowest Postseason Rotation ERAs Since 1969
Team
Season
GS
QS
IP
ERA
Results
Orioles
1983
9
6
61 2/3
1.31
Won WS
Braves
1996
16
15
113 1/3
1.59
Lost WS
Expos
1981
10
8
73 2/3
1.59
Lost NLCS
Brewers
2018
10
0
33
1.64
Lost NLCS
Mets
1973
12
10
81 2/3
1.87
Lost WS
Athletics
1972
12
6
76 1/3
1.89
Won WS
Tigers
2012
13
10
85 1/3
1.90
Lost WS
Diamondbacks
2001
17
14
120 1/3
1.94
Won WS
Dodgers
1981
16
11
110 1/3
1.96
Won WS
Rays
2026
9
4
50
1.98
Won ALCS
Minimum two rounds of playoffs and at least six games.
Jonathan Dyer, Benny Sieu, David Dermer, David Frerker-Imagn Images
Tomorrow night, the Milwaukee Brewers and the Tampa Bay Rays will kick off the 2026 World Series. They’ll both deploy unhittable aces to open the series, and they’ll both back them with a squad made up of speedsters, platoonable hitters, a young superstar, and relievers as far as the eye can see. To a first approximation, these teams might as well be a mirror image of each other. They’re small-budget operations that rely heavily on pitching, speed, and defense. They put the ball in play. They wreak havoc on the basepaths. They play indoors – at least some of the time, in Milwaukee’s case. But while the Rays and Brewers are superficially similar, key differences will have a lot to say about how this series turns out. So let’s take a look at where the equivalence ends, and how each team will try to use that to their advantage.
The Brewers and Rays each have an obvious leader in their respective rotations. Jacob Misiorowski and Drew Rasmussen are two of the best pitchers in baseball, and they’re both having career years. Misiorowski is a shoo-in for the National League Cy Young, and while Rasmussen probably won’t win the American League version, he just put up his sixth (!) straight season with a sub-3.00 ERA, posted over a career-high 172 innings. He’s found another gear in the playoffs — three starts, 21 innings pitched, and just three runs allowed. The Miz hasn’t looked quite so steady – two starts, 8 1/3 innings, three runs – but his 1.80 ERA and 2.17 FIP in the regular season were downright ludicrous. Read the rest of this entry »
By now, we imagine you have all heard about BLEPH. A few weeks ago, The Onion published an article that quoted FanGraphs contributor Derek Gardner extensively. In that article, Derek purported to be speaking on behalf of the entire analytics community in advocating for a new statistic called BLEPH. “We don’t care what it measures or how it’s calculated,” he said. “We just need something called B.L.E.P.H., and we need it now.” This is not the full truth, and we feel compelled to set the record straight.
First, we want to make it clear that Derek Gardner no longer works for FanGraphs. He was terminated for cause. Second, we take our stats seriously. We would never manufacture a new statistic just for the sake of creating a fun acronym. Because baseball analysis is already drowning in alphabet soup, we have a strict policy against creating new junk stats and acronyms unless we’re convinced that they’ll meaningfully expand the boundaries of sabermetric knowledge. We call it the Baseball Utility Terminology Threshold for Stopping Lighthearted Acronym Proliferation (BUTTSLAP).
This rigor is, in part, the reason that BLEPH became a national story in the first place. Before we get into the specifics, though, we should explain why we’re making all this public. In recent years, we’ve been inspired to learn that when we’re honest about our vision for the site and the challenges it faces, it can inspire a sense of camaraderie in our readers. All the same, that openness hasn’t normally extended to firings. Read the rest of this entry »
The way people talk about Jacob Misiorowski bothers me a little. Yeah, he’s taller than almost any other starting pitcher and throws harder than literally any starting pitcher in history. He led all major league pitchers in WAR this year, and if he wins the NL Cy Young Award next month — as he’s almost universally expected to do — it will be a deserved victory.
But Miz didn’t lap the field or post paradigm-altering results. I can’t make a defensible case for Chris Sale or Cristopher Sánchez to win the Cy Young over Misiorowski, but I suspect the eventual vote total will not reflect how close the statistical margin was between Miz and his rivals.
In other words, this is an outstanding pitcher — maybe the best in the world at the moment, perhaps even a future Hall of Famer — but he’s not 1999 Pedro Martínez, or Victor Wembanyama with a curveball. This is a fairly inexperienced 24-year-old with real flaws in his game.
The World Series — our annual signifier of another season smoked to its filter — is always a culmination of the sport’s beauty. Teams get rewarded for playing a winning brand of baseball all throughout October, managers are vindicated in all of the micro-decisions that got them there, and front offices can comfortably rest their heads at night knowing their systems and philosophies weren’t totally off base.
But more visible than all that — and the thing that gives the sport its humanity among so many numbers, figures, and entropy beyond the players’ control — is the heartwarming sight of a veteran finally getting a chance for his Ray Bourque moment. For the Tampa Bay Rays, who stand just four wins away from the franchise’s first title, that man is quite literally impossible to overlook. The circumference of his arms threatens a solar eclipse every time he raises them. His physical composition is probably best described in terms used to measure quartzite. He is Yandy Díaz, the 35-year-old igneous rock at the top of the Tampa Bay lineup, who, despite having all the hulking characteristics of a home run-mashing slugger, is also the best pure hitter in this World Series.
Díaz, who has hit safely in all but one of the Rays’ nine postseason games, is above average at nearly every element of hitting. He rarely swings and misses, which leads to very few strikeouts. In turn, he squares the ball at an 85th-percentile clip, and can do that while peppering it to right field. When he puts the ball in play, 29.9% of the time it’s going to the opposite field, a skill he shares with teammates Chandler Simpson and Jonathan Aranda, who are also among the five most frequent opposite-field hitters in the American League. Díaz is not going to take many walks — 8.2 BB%, good for the 37th percentile — but hitting .293 still helps him post a .359 on-base percentage, placing him in the top 20 of qualified AL batters. Read the rest of this entry »
Luke Holman has been one of the top pitchers in the hitter-friendly Arizona Fall League. Across three starts with the Peoria Desert Dogs, the 23-year-old right-hander in the Cincinnati Reds organization has surrendered just one run over nine innings. Moreover, he has fanned 15 batters and allowed just four hits and a lone walk. He was especially sharp on Monday. Facing a Scottsdale Scorpions lineup that included high-profile prospects Zyhir Hope, Bryce Rainer, and Nathan Flewelling, Holman breezed through four scoreless frames on 52 pitches.
Eric Longenhagen referenced the recent outing when I asked him for a snapshot of what he has seen from the Reading, Pennsylvania native, whom the Reds drafted 71st overall in 2024 out of Louisiana State University.
“He looks good,” our lead prospect analyst told me. “Glove-side command of 92-94, plus curveball in the 78-82 mph range. Attacks lefties in on their hands with fastballs and mid-80s cutter/sliders, then drops curveballs below the zone. He stretched out to four innings in his most recent start. Looks like a potential no. 4/5 to me. I want to see how he attacks second/third time through when asked to go six innings, and how his arm strength trends as he gets traction in a full-season routine.”
The erstwhile LSU Tiger, whose rotation-mates at the SEC powerhouse included Kade Anderson and Gage Jump, hasn’t had much of an opportunity to establish a routine. Holman began his professional career with a pair of effective outings in April 2025, only to have his elbow give out; Tommy John surgery cost him the remainder of the campaign. He also missed almost the entirety of this past season due to injury. Read the rest of this entry »
Nathan Ray Seebeck, David Banks, Mike Watters-Imagn Images
Monday, I published the first half of my ballot for this year’s Fielding Bible Awards, which will be announced at 3 PM ET tomorrow. Today, I’m going to cover my votes for the three outfield positions and pitcher, as well as the best multi-positional defenders, defensive player of the year, and defensive team of the year.
If you’re curious about the methodology I used to help guide my voting, you can read about it in Monday’s article, but here’s a quick refresher: I used a weighted blend of DRS, FRV, and DRP (the three flagship public defensive metrics), with the weights based on how well each metric did on reliability and consistency. That gave me an initial rough order at each position. From there, I used my own insights gleaned from both statistical and video deep dives on individual players, as well as the copious amounts of baseball I watched this year, to assemble my final rankings. I deferred to the defensive metrics when the gaps were big, but for close calls, I leaned heavily on my own judgment.
That’s a fair number of words, and there will be a lot more as I go through each of these positions, so let’s get right to it, starting with left field.
Last year, Bellinger played all over the outfield. This year, he mostly played in left, and he was pretty spectacular. He’s one of the best outfield defenders in the sport, and now that he’s playing full-time at a relatively weak position, he stood out from the pack here. He does it all: great anticipation and route-running, good speed, and a terrific throwing arm. With Steven Kwan now in center, Bellinger is the class of the position, and I didn’t seriously consider anyone else for my first place vote. Read the rest of this entry »
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley tease their next playoff livestream and discuss “Chalktober,” the end of the ALCS, Chandler Simpson’s (and Ben’s) calves, Ben’s quickly defused feud with FanGraphs, and hirings/non-firings. Then (1:00:53) they bring back fan-favorite (and host-favorite) guest Adrian Chiles—BBC host, Guardian columnist, and Effectively Wild UK correspondent—to talk about his beloved Rays’ run to the World Series, how he’s followed their exploits despite a several-hour time difference, his musings about the excitement/misery of playoff baseball, and more.
Runs are hard to come by during the postseason, in part because of the outsized impact of cooler weather and overpowering relief pitching. So far this fall, no pitcher has done a better job of keeping runs off the board than Aaron Ashby. Working in a multi-inning role that recalls a bygone era of bullpen firemen, the 28-year-old lefty has delivered 12 1/3 scoreless innings for the Brewers thus far while playing a central role in both their Division Series win over the Padres and their Championship Series victory over the Dodgers — so much so that he assembled a reasonable NLCS MVP case, though the award went to Jake Bauers instead.
Ashby has pitched in six of Milwaukee’s eight playoff games, coincidentally Games 1, 2, and 4 of both aforementioned series. He’s thrown more innings than any other Brewer this postseason; by comparison, starters Robert Gasser and Logan Henderson have each totaled nine, and Jacob Misiorowski eight. Four of Ashby’s six outings have been hitless, and all but one has lasted at least 1 2/3 innings, a luxury afforded by the October schedule’s extra days off and his own efficiency and stamina.
“The way this guy loves to play, loves to throw every day. He keeps on wanting the ball,” said pitching coordinator Jim Henderson of Ashby in the wake of the NLCS clincher. “He’s trained himself for it. Every single day he plays catch, he gives it a full effort. He doesn’t save bullets. He creates them.” Read the rest of this entry »
As an evaluator, what have you been able to take from the sustained player acquisition and development successes of the Rays and Brewers?
Brendan Gawlowski
Two of the prime examples of how holistic player evaluation is the right path forward. Both with great front offices, scouting staffs, and dev operations. Hand in glove operations.
Charles Bengal Tiger
I need a long-term young dynasty catcher. Who's most likely to have a solid MLB career out of Leo Bernal, Vahn Lackey, or Nathan Flewelling?
Brendan Gawlowski
Lackey but I like all three.
Charles Bengal Tiger
How has Charles Davalan looked at 2B?
Brendan Gawlowski
Promising but needs reps. Athleticism and range to do it…
Jeremy Bowers
Hi Brendan! Thanks for doing these. Every year, it's interesting to see evals and rankings update over the offseason even though there doesn't appear to be a lot of new information added. What's happening there? How do you approach an offseason where you have little new additional info.
Brendan Gawlowski
I'm not sure I understand your question. We've got a year of new info to work with. Sometimes that changes the forecast, often it doesn't, but either way it's worth reviewing the year and checking in.
jdbolick
Has your opinion of Kade Anderson changed after seeing his four seam with the MLB ball?
Brendan Gawlowski
I wish we'd been a little cooler on him on the midseason update. His FB grade will go down.
Jeremy Bowers
Re: evals over the offseason — apologies, mostly thinking about how you might approach looking at a player or an org given just new perspective but not necessarily any new looks.
Brendan Gawlowski
Lot of video/data analysis. Even a guy who looks fairly similar might have added a pitch, and it's good to go in and take a glance at how that looks on video.
bdolven
What do you think Jared Grimdlinger’s path looks like? Definitely not going to pitch? How quickly do you figure he’ll be expected to move?
Brendan Gawlowski
LAA sources say they're going to try the two-way path. Harder to go quickly that way but fun/exciting nonetheless.
Domingo Ayala
I went through old scouting reports on other sites and saw Profar had present 70 grade SS defense. Was that a misread or did Profar change over time?
Brendan Gawlowski
There were some injuries in there but the 70 might've been a little hot. I was a neophyte back then though.
Charles Bengal Tiger
Who will be the next good homegrown starting pitcher for the Dodgers?
Brendan Gawlowski
Zazueta is the leader in the clubhouse.
Domingo Ayala
Years ago when Moniak was selected first overall, I read a report that when he showed up to camp in the spring he already looked less athletic. Do you recall your first look at him that Spring?
Brendan Gawlowski
Didn't have one, but given that he's still playing a little center in big league games ten years after he was drafted, don't think athleticism was necessarily the prroblem there.
mbushskbum
I attended the AFL triple header in Goodyear Saturday and then Glendale at Salt River yesterday. Dax Kilby looked awesome yesterday. His speed was impressive as was how hard he hit his triple and ground rule double. How do you measure speed for your evals? I notice that FGs has Kilby as a 55 spd while MLB and BA have him at a 60. Curious what you look at to grade it.
Brendan Gawlowski
Home to first time is the anchor and I might throttle up or down a half grade depending on how playable it seems to be. Good example of a tool that's easier to see in all its glory when you're in the park. You get a better look at first step on defense or on the bases, and some video feeds make it tricky to get an accurate run time, too.
Brendan Gawlowski
Amusingly, I know of a scout who once got into a ton of trouble for putting 60 run times on 30 runners because he was doing it on video and didn't know that all the camera angles weren't synced up.
kingkash7788
How much has Nimmala risen in the last week and a bit?
Brendan Gawlowski
Holding steady.
Brendan Gawlowski
Maybe a tick down, I'm not ready to move him off of SS yet but I can see it going that way a little more every time I watch him.
mbushskbum
Have you seen Nathan Flewelling? How would you rate his catcher D in particular his framing. How to do you grade framing when watching players?
Brendan Gawlowski
Framing, for me, is easier on video; there's just so much else going on in the park, I have a hard time getting a good feel for it unless I'm really paying attention to just that at the expense of other stuff. But I'm looking for mobility, low stance, strong wrist, limited head movement. If most of the physical stuff looks good but the technique isn't there yet, that's fine, we can project there.
Brendan Gawlowski
Flewelling himself does a lot of that well, he's low to the ground and can funnel balls toward the plate from all directions.
George
Hey Brendan! In your Pitcher AFL notes you wrote that Susana had split his breaking ball into two shapes in your October 10th look. The shapes were pretty blended in his AAA looks. Did you hear anything about how that transpired in the AFL and whether it was an explicitly intentional change?
Brendan Gawlowski
There was enough velo separation between his slowest and fastest ones that I figured it was two pitches; he may have just been adding/subtracting. Regardless, I like that he's able to mix it up a little bit.
war2d2
Brendan! Right now is generally when my friends and I start our generalized plans for our annual spring training trip. What’s your general feeling for if there will be any games in late-February next year? Minor leaguers will still be under contract, right? If that doesn’t happen we’re also considering Cape Cod, or putting it off until October for the AFL. What’s your general feel for which one would be more enjoyable for a bunch of depressed middle-aged nerds?
Brendan Gawlowski
Really tough year to make plans, unfortunately. My crystal ball isn't any better than anybody else's. Maybe it's the hopeless optimist in me, but if I had to guess, I suspect we're looking at a similar deal to what we had in 2022, maybe with a few missed games, maybe not.
Brendan Gawlowski
As for your situation specifically, if you have the flexibility to make plans just a few weeks in advance, you might actually get a pretty good deal on hotels and attendance at big league games will be pretty light, which is a positive in my book.
Brendan Gawlowski
Alternatively, if you're cool with just going to the backfields, plan away.
Wright Abbot
Most of the Orioles players in the Fall League seem to be doing well. Anything caught your attention in particular?
Brendan Gawlowski
Pleasantly surprised by Honeycutt, I guess. More in a 40-ish sort of way than huge impact, but he didn't look overmatched at the plate.
Petey Bienel
Did Cayden Wallace show enough this season to restore the 40 status he had when he was in the KC system?
Brendan Gawlowski
That feels about right off the cuff, would need to dive into the defense to say for sure. He's reached the AA power grade he's had here for a while. Approach is not good though.
Charles Bengal Tiger
What position will Ace Reese eventually play?
Brendan Gawlowski
1B/LF.
Alex Remington
I saw the Mets just decided to hire more scouts. This is *maybe* more of a rant than a question, but why did so many teams decide to cut their scouting staffs in recent years, and is there any chance that this particular World Series matchup induces more teams to think about beefing back up in their scouting department?
Brendan Gawlowski
A combination of things. Some people think that the data is robust enough that you don't need scouts. Some leaders don't like that scouts come from a different perspective and have a different view on players. Some scouts don't do themselves any favors.
StuShea
If you're the White Sox, do you hold Colson Montgomery for another year? Can he improve?
Brendan Gawlowski
Yes, numbers tanked right when he got hurt. I buy that he was playing through something in the second half .
mbushskbum
I have never visited the backfields, can you give a brief or not suggestion of how to do that?
Brendan Gawlowski
Each splits its minor leaguers into four or five teams. Those teams play games on the backfields which are usually but not always (Athletics, Giants, Reds/Guardos kind of) very close to the stadium. There are usually but not always two games going on simultaneously (A/A+ teams or AA/AAA teams). There are a few fans but not many, more scouts/family/autograph hounds than anything else. It's a good time.
Ceiling of a no. 3, he'll likely be a 45 this winter, maybe 45+. Could reach the desert next year, take your pick on a 27 or 28 ETA.
Brendan Gawlowski
I should admit, of all the things I grade/project here, the ETA is the thing I spend the least time on. It's hard enough to project on the tools, and the timeline is often not dictated by talent and performance alone anyway.
apeloton
If you’re the Sox, do you feel like you have a Story/Arias situation? If so, what do you do about it this winter?
Brendan Gawlowski
Good problem to have. Cynically, it gives you an excuse to delay the clock on Arias. In the unlikely event that Story is both good and healthy at short, great, if not you have the guy you really want there anyway just about ready to go.
Honkus Wagner
has Walcott’s gotten enough work at SS in the AFL to quell any concerns about his defense there? will be interesting to see how Texas manages Jung and Seager going into next year
Brendan Gawlowski
I'd shift the framing. It's less a concern to quell than a case where Walcott is going to have to continually prove that he can play short throughout his career.
Pirates Hurdles
Hi Brendan, do you have any intel on why Derek Curiel didnt see any MiLB time this year? Coming from LSU I would have thought straight to A or A+ was in the plan. I guess the approach worked well enough with Murf Gray, but seems odd to me.
Brendan Gawlowski
Fairly typical for first round picks to not go out to A ball at the end of the year. Some do, some don't, wouldn't read too much into it.
swood
With the benefit of hindsight, who were some guys you were way too high on this year, and why were you too high?
Brendan Gawlowski
There are obviously a lot of guys who didn't reach their projection, but there were always reasons for putting them where I/we did. I think the ones that bug me the most are the ones where data led me astray. Putting too much weight on metal bat exit velos, over-grading a fastball due to shape generated with a minor league ball, things like that.
Brendan Gawlowski
If the question is more like "why were you too high on Dylan Beavers?" I think you can generally follow the trail of thought from the writeup.
maximus74
do you expect an over correction to the rabbit ball used in the minors from this year?
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't really know what to expect. My guess is it will shift back toward where it was before but who knows. The league isn't great at making consistent baseballs.
Anonymous Member #46
Is there anything worth reading into from the 2026 draft class at all yet?
Brendan Gawlowski
Bits and pieces. Couple scouts told me they think Ace Reece looked more hitterish than they expected, which is interesting. But more things like that than a "it really looks like Team X screwed that one up" so far.
InsertWittyNameHere
Klaw said Aidan Miller looked good during the AFL, did you get a look at him too?
Brendan Gawlowski
I didn't, sorry, kept missing him. Pretty sure Eric has got him a couple times though, better question for him.
ryancorrigan10
If you had the 1.01 draft pick in a dynasty league this winter, who would you take with that pick?
Brendan Gawlowski
Not a fantasy guy but PCA/Witt/Elly/Caminero seem most appealing depending on your risk tolerance and positional scarcity needs.
dan norman lear
Who is the starting OF on Opening Day 2027, whenever that may be, for the Colorado Rockies?
Brendan Gawlowski
Carrigg.
beanbong
with how relievers are used in the postseason now (essentially every game for some), does that affect FV for pitchers projected to be late-inning relievers? Cade Smith ran out of gas but threw more innings than all the Cleveland staff except for Messick/Williams
Brendan Gawlowski
It's an interesting question. All projections are tricky, relievers moreso than just about anyone else. The very best relief prospects don't reliably turn into dominant closers. And on the other side of the coin, how could you project Cade Smith to halve his walk rate the second he got to the big leagues?
Brendan Gawlowski
Practically speaking, I'm finding that I'm projecting more and more guys who are starting in the minors into relief roles, and leaving their FV's higher than I perhaps would have a few years ago.
higginsford
Are you glued to Peacock for this absurd day game tipoff for the NBA's opening day?
Brendan Gawlowski
No. Bad opinion incoming but… I don't think basketball works.
padsfan96
Anyone from the back end of the top 100 list poised to take a leap on next year's list based on their 2nd half?
Brendan Gawlowski
I imagine 5-10 will. Kilby for sure. Luis Hernandez wouldn't surprise me. Maybe a guy like Michael Arroyo, now that he's played a little bit in the big leagues, and played well. I'll be pushing to knock him ahead of Celesten at the very least.
beanbong
Piggybacking on the reliever question, the recent Jaffe article highlights Ashby and points out that he could've won NLCS MVP. If you're starting a 7 game playoff series, would you rather have the lights-out fireman reliever or the 4.00 FIP #3 starter? I'd want the reliever, as I'm sure most would, but on opening day, would the answer be the same? Does (or should) that play a role in projecting players, or are we now introducing another tricky variable into an already tricky art?
Brendan Gawlowski
To complicate things further: I'm not so sure that the no. 3 starter couldn't just be the fireman reliever.
jaysfan39
Any thoughts on Jake Cook's first season in pro ball,?
Brendan Gawlowski
It was okay. Speed played a little better on the bases than it did in college, which is a good sign. Arrow flat or slightly down.
JMKUHNER
RE: Rockies OF… that's a LOT of ground for Cole Carigg to cover by himself…
Brendan Gawlowski
ah jeez, I read that as CF. I assume they'll run it back with McCarthy and Moniak in the corners… Boring answer, I know.
triplesandtea
Who in your mind was a "can't miss" prospect when you wrote them up (for either us or PIT) who ended up missing? Why did they miss? If for injury, can you also think of an example that wasn't an injury miss?
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't think anybody is "can't" miss but I had a big grade on Tovar, and if you'd have told me at the end of his 3.5 win 2024 season that, two years later, his walk/strikeout numbers will go in the right direction AND he'd have a 55 wRC+ I'd have been floored.
Brendan Gawlowski
Answer there is that the approach got exploited in a big, big way.
apeloton
What’s the updated super bull case for kilby? Well rounded regular kinda guy, or might there be another gear even on top of that?
Brendan Gawlowski
The super bullish case is that he can hit .300 with a little power and play above average defense at short.
Brendan Gawlowski
It's quite a ceiling.
Domingo Ayala
Wait, why doesn't basketball work? I'm not a fan either but can you explain?
Brendan Gawlowski
Block/charge/no call is just a vibe.
John Church
Since higher draft picks produce the most value on average, do amateur scouting departments focus most of their resources on the top two rounds (say, top 75) or so some teams try to focus on building greater org depth and look to hit on later rd picks as well?
Brendan Gawlowski
Kind of both. The big picks get a lot of attention. Multiple decision makers will go personally see and talk to the seven-figure guys. But there are still plenty of people around pouring their heart and soul into looking for diamonds in the rough.
JMKUHNER
Does that make Veen or Condon attractive trade pieces? Challenge trade to a pitching rich team possibly (do pitching rich teams even exist given the number of pitchers used by teams per year these days…)
Brendan Gawlowski
It's worth giving Veen another look but the swing and miss is really scary there. The way the Rockies have developed Condon is different enough from my eval of him that I feel the need to dig deeper to figure out what the heck is going on.
maximus74
had zero idea that the NBA was trying out day games for opening "night" guess I'm not playing fantasy basketball this year
Brendan Gawlowski
I didn't either From a distance, the league seems like it's in kind of a weird place. I think it's true in all sports but maybe in basketball especially, a lot of the energy seems to come from stuff not happening on the court.
maximus74
Do you think draft pick trading will make it into this CBA?
Brendan Gawlowski
I'd be pleasantly surprised.
adamakbani99
Updated views on Tai Peete? Don't want to overreact to a small sample but between AA/AFL he's been great against better competition and has shown better swing decisions recently. Is a 45 FV fair now?
Brendan Gawlowski
I would not go crazy on AFL production. I'm encouraged that he's continuing to make things work as he's facing better pitching but my feelings on him haven't changed much. He's the kind of player I'd project as a regular as a scout, but one that teams have to value lower than that because he's so risk/reward.
Anonymous Member #46
If pick trading made its way into the CBA, what teams do you think would be most poised to take advantage? Who would be most aggressive in acquiring picks, and who would be aggressive in trading them away?
Brendan Gawlowski
The Rays would find a way to have 40 picks in the first ten rounds.
JMKUHNER
Ah, the vibe, just like a check swing (nothing defines "offering at the pitch" other than the umpires vibes)
Brendan Gawlowski
There's some of this in all sports. Pass interference, penalties in soccer, the strike zone at times in baseball history, etc. "Can I legally go to the hoop?" seems more fundamentally problematic to me but… Like I said, it's a bad opinion. We all have 'em.
ToastMalone
I saw Teruaki Sato was posted., but I didn’t see him on The Board. Any guess where he’ll slot in?
Brendan Gawlowski
Sneak peak at Ben's list… He's in 50 FV territory there.
dan norman lear
Rank the Ethans"
Brendan Gawlowski
Salas, Holliday, Pecko, Conrad, Roberts… I'm running out of Ethans, please send help.
triplesandtea
Maybe a better question for an article but what's something you think rookie scouts often overstate/understate relative to veteran scouts? What about something veterans more often miss than rookies?
Brendan Gawlowski
You get better at projecting the longer you do it. You start to get a feel for how certain bodies and traits will age. For veterans, as the game changes, there's a risk that you either don't adapt or just get really frustrated with how modern baseball is played, and that can seep into the evaluations a little bit.
Honkus Wagner
Caceras, A Gomez, Frias, Renteria…you get one to start a team with, who are you taking?
Brendan Gawlowski
Leaning Gomez, caveat that I need to give Renteria a longer look. Caceres feels a little out of place here.
dan norman lear
Sometimes we just have prospects, whom, no matter what we read about them, are skeptical they are ever going to be more than prospects. My recent one has been Tink Hence. Currently, it is Jamie Arnold. Do you have a prospect you are just skeptical of, regardless of hopeful promise.
Brendan Gawlowski
It's interesting you mentioned Hence, I had a very similar feeling to what you were describing. As a general matter, I tend to be skeptical of the corner guys with light power but good minor league swing data.
Brendan Gawlowski
Think I'll shut it down here today. Thanks as always for the questions, we'll do it again next week.
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