FanGraphs Baseball

Effectively Wild Episode 2542: C U in the CS

EWFI
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, please visit our Patreon.

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Game 4 of the White Sox-Guardians ALDS, playoff pitching chaos, and “rest vs. rust” revisited, then preview the Dodgers-Brewers NLCS rematch, react to MLB’s proposed changes to the regular season and postseason, consider an athletic tournament with stakes that extend beyond baseball, and return to the topic of how leagues decide which treatments are legal.

Audio intro: Josh Busman, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Philip Tapley and Michael Stokes, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to G4 box score
Link to Cleveland pitching plan
Link to Sheehan on G4
Link to home clincher story
Link to X-Men wiki
Link to X-Men scene
Link to X-Men still
Link to Neil on R vs. R
Link to Ben C. on bye layoffs
Link to Neil on the rematch
Link to Neil on playoff heroes
Link to Ditka obit
Link to team offense vs. LHP
Link to team offense vs. RHP
Link to Shoreline School District
Link to MLB proposals
Link to MLBPA response
Link to Drellich on MLB proposals
Link to 2020 report
Link to more on 2020 report
Link to Rendon comment
Link to JND wiki
Link to ESG on MLB rights
Link to ESG on NBA rights
Link to FDR letter
Link to Kim wiki
Link to Kim’s FG page
Link to KBO batting leaders
Link to Kim’s hit
Link to Asian Games wiki
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Link to The Athletic on exemptions
Link to blood doping FAQ
Link to Baumann on cycling
Link to Pettitte comments
Link to McGwire comments
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00:24:14

The 10 Best Division Series of All Time, Ranked

Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

On the heels of an utterly spectacular Division Series between the Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres — a walk-off, a home run robbery, two paternity leaves, oh my! — I found myself chewing on two pervasive thoughts. One: that was a hell of a series, and it really deserved a fifth game. Two: how many other Division Series have been on that level?

Since the Division Series’ true birth in 1995 (the 1981 strike led to a one-off set of Division Series that autumn, which then went dormant until the next strike made them permanent) we’ve now had 128 of them, with 41 ending in sweeps and 39 going all the way to a do-or-die Game 5, with the ongoing White Sox-Guardians series becoming the 40th. While early-round series in any sport are bound to have some impossibly stacked rosters beating the brakes off ahead-of-schedule teams that are just happy to be cashing playoff bonuses, the history of the Division Series is also rich with indelible postseason memories. With baseball’s inherent small-sample wackiness often playing a huge role — in 2023, both the 100-win Dodgers and 101-win Orioles were swept out of the Division Series by the unlikeliest World Series participants of the decade — these series often shrink the gap between the haves and the have-nots. Sure, sometimes you get a quick sweep where all three games are forgettable, but if you take a fine-tooth comb through the LDS annals, you’ll also find some 3-0 sets that were dripping with tension. (In 1996, for instance, the Cardinals swept the Padres in a series where San Diego sent the tying run to the plate in the ninth inning of all three games.)

This ranking of the best Division Series ever does not include any of those sweeps, or even any four-gamers, though many tried their damnedest. Division Series touchstones like Pedro Martínez coming out of the bullpen for six untouchable innings or Todd Pratt’s improbable homer play well in a highlight reel, but one great moment does not make a great series. The same thing is true of remarkable Game 5s that capped off an otherwise blah affair. We all remember Howie Kendrick’s 2019 grand slam at Dodger Stadium, but forget that the average margin of victory in that Nationals-Dodgers showdown was 4.6 runs. The same thing is true of the Dodgers’ Division Series in 2021 against the Giants, which ended with Max Scherzer’s only career save and sparked the great check swing debate of our times, but also had games decided by four, five, and seven runs.

For a series to be wholly great, it needs start-to-finish drama, star power, and multiple classic games; a little sprinkling of narrative intrigue doesn’t hurt either. Here are the 10 best of the Division Series variety, presented in descending order.

10. All of 2012

This one is obviously cheating, but 2012 is the only year in which all four Division Series went five games, so it gets its own spot. The fact that shorthand is a sufficient way to summarize many of the key events — the Buster Posey grand slam, the Pete Kozma game, the Raul Ibanez game, Justin Verlander vs. Oakland Round 1 — is all you need to know about how spectacular the second week of October was in 2012.

9. 2016 – Dodgers Beat Nationals 3-2

There was a time in the not-so-distant past where the dominant conversation surrounding Dodgers playoff games was that Clayton Kershaw wasn’t very good in them, and that the Los Angeles bullpen was even worse. This narrative clung to the Dodgers as they entered the 2016 postseason having been bounced in the Division Series each of the last two years. This time, though, led by young first-year manager Dave Roberts, questions abounded regarding the team’s overall postseason mettle.

While those were somewhat quieted by Kershaw outdueling Scherzer to take a tight Game 1, the Dodgers dropped each of the next two games, one of which featured Kenley Jansen puking up four earned runs. Allow me to briefly remember some other Dodger bullpen guys who played a big role in this series: Luis Avilán, Pedro Báez, Joe Blanton, and Grant Dayton each made at least three appearances. Avilán, Báez, and Blanton were all dynamite, escaping the series without giving up an earned run. Dayton, however, was the reason the Dodgers nearly blew it again. He took the mound for the seventh inning of Game 5, the Dodgers holding a three-run lead. He was tasked with the bottom of Washington’s lineup, the type of thing that seems simple until you remember that absolutely nothing is simple in playoff baseball. He walked Danny Espinosa, gave up a pinch-hit bomb to Chris Heisey, and then let Clint Robinson reach on a single.

From there, somewhat famously, Roberts aggressively fired Jansen and Kershaw for the final nine outs. Kershaw not only logged his first and only major league save that night, he did so while coming into a messy inning with the tying run in scoring position. This brief but successful outing was as storybook as it gets, removing a fairly sizable monkey yelling about postseason shortcomings from his back. Let us also quickly pay respect to Chase Utley, whose game-winning hit in Game 4 saved the Dodgers’ bacon.

8. 2017 – Yankees Beat Cleveland 3-2

The 2017 Yankees remain the last team to lose the first two games of an LDS and still win the series, though the Guardians could change that on Saturday. Falling into that hole made for an exigent series in its own right, but the Yankees starting the comeback with seven shutout innings from Masahiro Tanaka and a left-on-left Greg Bird homer against a warlock reliever made it even more impressive.

Luis Severino pitched the game of his life to win Game 4, and Didi Gregorius thumped two homers off Corey Kluber, who’d go on to win his second Cy Young that year, to win Game 5. There are so many other things from this series to mention, like how Aaron Judge struck out 16 times, comfortably breaking the Division Series record, or how Cleveland committed a mind-boggling nine errors in five games. It would also be a tremendous oversight not to mention that Game 2 — a 9-8 win for Cleveland that took 13 innings — is one of the very best baseball games of this century, and contained this clip, which I would watch if I ever needed to summon the strength to lift a two-story home from its foundation.

7. 2011 – Cardinals Beat Phillies 3-2

On paper, the 2011 Phillies had everything. This was the fabled Four Aces team, and those four — Roy Halladay (twice), Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, and Roy Oswalt — made every start of this series. The offense still had its championship core intact as well, even if they were aging. Ryan Madson had an excellent year filling in for the injured Brad Lidge as the team’s primary closer, and on top of that, these Phils were battle tested, having participated in each of the previous four Octobers.

What they didn’t account for was the little guys.

Skip Schumaker and Ryan Theriot were as much of a reason the Cardinals won this series as their Hall of Fame teammates were. While Albert Pujols hit .350 and Yadier Molina threw out three would-be basestealers while masterfully guiding Cardinals pitchers through the vaunted Phillies lineup, Schumaker and Theriot combined to go 12-for-20 with four doubles and four RBI. The biggest of those RBI came in the decisive Game 5, when Schumaker flicked the 10th pitch of his first at-bat off Halladay into the right field corner. It wound up being the only run of the game.

That game is seared into the Delaware Valley’s collective memory for many reasons, the biggest two being Chris Carpenter bullying the Phillies all night en route to a complete game shutout, and Ryan Howard tearing his Achilles in the game’s final at-bat, which was the definitive and unfortunate end to that run of good fortune in Philadelphia. But that game was also one of three one-run affairs in this highly competitive series, including a Game 2 where the Cardinals clawed back from an early 4-0 deficit to beat Lee, and a nailbiter Game 3 where neither team scored until Ben Francisco lifted a pinch-hit homer in the seventh.

Apart from an 11-6 Phillies win to start the series, every game of this tilt was a box office spectacle.

6. 1997 – Cleveland Beats Yankees 3-2

The defending-champion Yankees squared off against Cleveland, with both teams right in the teeth of their ’90s revitalization. They were kind enough to only play bangers.

In Game 1 in the Bronx, the visitors jumped David Cone for five runs in the first inning, only to turn around and watch their bullpen give the Yankees five right back in the sixth. It wasn’t any ordinary offensive explosion either; the Yanks went back-to-back-to-back, marking the first time that had ever happened in a postseason game. If you like watching videos of old Yankee Stadium going ham, I highly recommend pressing play.

Cleveland roughed up Andy Pettitte to steal Game 2, but then lost Game 3 at home, setting up two win-or-go-home games. Because of the playoff format of the time, those were both in Cleveland, and while we will never be able to quantify home field advantage, the hometown nine did take both of them by exactly one run. In Game 4, Cleveland was four outs from elimination when Sandy Alomar Jr. took Mariano Rivera deep in the eighth and Omar Vizquel walked it off in the ninth.

After all that mayhem, there was still a Game 5, which Jose Mesa saved only after putting a runner on second. This whole series was littered with high leverage, and when you factor in the wattage of Derek Jeter, Rivera, Tim Raines, Wade Boggs, Bernie Williams, Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, David Justice, Orel Hershiser, and several other household names, it easily cements its place in this ranking.

5. 2015 – Blue Jays Beat Rangers 3-2

To this day, Blue Jays-Rangers in 2015 is the series that felt the most like drugs. The energy from pre-renovation Rogers Centre was palpable through the television screen, and rightfully so. This was the Blue Jays’ first taste of October baseball since winning the title in 1993, and their berth in the postseason broke the longest active playoff drought at the time.

Naturally, the Jays lost their first two home games, getting dinked and dunked by Delino DeShields and Hanser Alberto. Game 2 was the real barnburner though, needing 14 innings and 37 total players to complete.

If you’re going to poke holes in this series’ status as an all-timer, it’s because Games 3 and 4 in Texas were relative snoozers. But Game 5 more than made up for them. It was not just a spine tingler, a national exaltation for all of Canada, and the moment that bat flips fully went mainstream thanks to José Bautista’s epic go-ahead home run, but it was also a reminder of what it means to truly be alive (and also that if a catcher throws the ball back to the pitcher and it doinks off the hitter’s bat, that’s still a live ball).

4. 2001 – Diamondbacks Beat Cardinals 3-2

If a series in which every game is decided by three runs or less, the teams alternate wins, and the final swing produces a walk-off hit doesn’t do it for you, this probably just isn’t your jam.

The Diamondbacks won this series despite getting outscored 12-10. They also lost the lone game that Randy Johnson started. The Cardinals, meanwhile, managed to hit a measly .191 for the series and relied heavily on their bullpen, which lacked a true alpha and wasn’t particularly strong in the regular season. Put all that in a blender and you get a weird, gelatinous substance that doesn’t quite feel right but is compelling nonetheless.

One man who was on top of his game was Curt Schilling, who has a case for the best Division Series performance ever. Schilling started two games and went nine innings in both of them, starting with a true masterpiece in Game 1 (nine strikeouts, three hits, zero runs). The encore in Game 5 came with a teensy blemish, but Schilling matched his nine strikeouts and finished with a record-setting 1.30 Win Probability Added for the series. His 18 innings pitched in a Division Series are also a record, and if you’re wondering about that solitary mistake, it was leaving this pitch to J.D. Drew over the plate.

Luckily for the neutral fan, Schilling’s poor location set up Tony Womack’s series-ending floater, foreshadowing more clutchness from him later that postseason.

3. 2003 – Red Sox Beat Athletics 3-2

If you sat down and watched every game of this series today, you’d probably say the worst one was the A’s 5-1 win in Game 2, which was the most lopsided of the series. But that would also mean you just watched Barry Zito twirl seven innings of poetry. Zito’s gem put the Athletics in the driver’s seat but unable to finish the race, as the Red Sox ran off a trio of wins to take the series. First in line to make Oakland slightly less romantic about baseball: Trot Nixon.

The very next day, the A’s lugged a lead into the eighth inning and hitched their wagon to Keith Foulke for the final six outs. He got the first two, then was interrupted by David Ortiz.

All good, Zito was on the hill for Game 5! What’s this, now? He faced Pedro? And gave Manny an 86-mph nothing ball right down the middle? Oh.

The Red Sox took that game in another white knuckler that put a period on an unfathomable streak for the A’s. The green and gold endured four straight ALDS Game 5 losses from 2000-03, with this one marking the second in three years after winning the first two games of the series. Tough for the East Bay baseball fans, cinema (literally and figuratively) for fans of exciting ball. And hey, A’s fans will always have Ramon Hernandez’s bizarre yet effective two-out, walk-off bunt from Game 1.

2. 2013 – Tigers Beat Athletics 3-2

It is not hyperbole at all to say every game of this series had a serotonin spike. If Scherzer and Bartolo Colon duking it out in Game 1 wasn’t enough for you, that game ended with the slimmest of margins as Joaquín Benoit had to slay Brandon Moss and Yoenis Cespedes to close it out. Game 2 was a scoreless tie into the bottom of the ninth — Justin Verlander and Sonny Gray, take a bow — when then-unknown catcher Stephen Vogt spanked a walk-off single. In Game 3, Grant Balfour and Victor Martinez screamed at each other real loud! The Tigers trailed 3-0 in Game 4, then 4-3, and still managed to pull out a win. That game deserves a closer look, because Scherzer came in for a relief outing that was this close to being a complete disaster.

To set the scene, Scherzer relieved Doug Fister in the top of the seventh, with the game knotted at three. Some small ball from the A’s spawned the aforementioned 4-3 lead, but the Tigers got it back in the seventh, partly due to a home run that may or may not have been interfered with.

When Scherzer came out for the eighth, he proceeded to load the bases with nobody out, grit his way to two massive strikeouts, then run the count full to Alberto Callaspo, who laced a line drive that hung up just long enough to be caught. It really was an absolute powder keg of a baseball game.

Game 5 was more tyranny from Verlander, who was just torturous to the A’s. At this point we’ll stop highlighting Oakland’s shortcomings and focus on Verlander, who is one of five pitchers to post a 0.00 ERA in an LDS while tossing at least 10 innings.

1. 1995 – Mariners Beat Yankees 3-2

I don’t need to explain why this series is paramount to the Seattle Mariners’ very existence, or how Ken Griffey Jr. chugging around the bases to win Game 5 is surely the best that any baseball player has ever looked while running.

What maybe does need explaining is everything that led to Edgar Martinez’s picturesque swing and The Kid’s wild ride. Like how Griffey (maybe the most beloved player the Mariners have ever employed) uncorked two home runs off David Cone in Game 1, only for reliever Bobby Ayala (maybe the least beloved player the Mariners have ever employed) to later serve up three runs that essentially sealed Seattle’s loss. Perhaps you were unaware that Vince Coleman and his .345 career slugging percentage hit a tater in Game 2, a sordid evening in the Bronx that lasted over five hours, culminating in Jim Leyritz’s walk-off dinger that nearly killed professional baseball in Seattle.

The Mariners bounced back to win a fun Game 3 and had to overcome a five-run deficit to survive Game 4. While Martinez’s legacy is tied to The Double in Game 5, the M’s aren’t even in that position if not for his less-heralded handiwork the day before. It is a marvel of human accomplishment that he kept the first one fair.

Game 5 was one for the books. While the heroics of both Martinez and Griffey are deserving of their own 20,000 words, and are the main reason why this series gets the top spot, let’s continue the education around the other parts of that legendary Sunday at the Kingdome.

Cone unleashed a legitimately reckless 147 pitches, the Yankees finished with six hits but 10 walks, and a rookie setup man named Rivera made his third straight scoreless appearance on his way to leading all pitchers in WPA for the series.

They were five close, high-scoring games that could never be replicated, have been slightly imitated, but are now forever vindicated with the top spot on this list.


Arizona Fall League Position Player Scouting Notebook

Dax Kilby Photo: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

I watched eight Arizona Fall League games over the last week, and today’s a good time to empty the notebook on some of the position players I saw. I’ve got a mix of updates on top prospects and notes on a couple off-the-radar names who impressed me. Let’s get to it, starting with perhaps the best player in the league.

Dax Kilby, SS, Yankees

Kilby looks great as a hitter. He’s quick and direct to the ball, he doesn’t leak early, his swing stays on plane forever, he adjusts well off the fastball, and he can use the whole field. He can seemingly get his hands everywhere, and the way he’s able to pull them in and turn around velocity is in a class with the Max Clarks and Kevin McGonigles of the world.

Kilby is also smooth and balanced at shortstop, rangy with a good internal clock. His throwing stroke looks pushy when he has time, but he can let it rip when he needs to get rid of the ball quickly. He looked like the best player on the field, and his stock surged for both Eric and me during my time in Arizona. Read the rest of this entry »


Aidan Miller Is Getting Back in the Swing of Things in the Arizona Fall League

Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Aidan Miller might be the Philadelphia Phillies’ next shortstop, and his health will go a long way to determining if (and when) that happens. Drafted 27th overall in 2023 out of a New Port Richey, Florida high school, the sweet-swinging 22-year-old missed most of this past season due to a back injury. Diagnosed with discogenic pain and facet inflammation in the lumbar spine, Miller underwent a radiofrequency ablation procedure in early June. He saw action in just eight games, half of them for Double-A Reading in the Eastern League playoffs.

He’d come into the season with a legitimate chance to debut in the majors. Ranked atop our 2026 Phillies Top Prospects list when it came out in January, Miller was coming off of a 2025 campaign that saw him rake to the tune of a 137 wRC+ between Reading and Triple-A Lehigh Valley, with all but 37 of his 526 plate appearances coming at the lower of the two levels. Moreover, he’d gone deep 14 times and swiped 59 bases. With a first-round pedigree and a 55 FV grade, he was on the doorstep of breaking into Philadelphia’s lineup… until an already nagging issue morphed into one that required intervention.

Miller is currently getting back into the swing of things in the Arizona Fall League, and as he explained to me last week, he is doing so by dialing back how many swings he takes. Regardless of the role it may have played in his lower back woes, his excessive cage work likely did him no favors. Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: New York Mets – Software Engineer, Baseball Systems

Direct link to application (please see job details below):

Software Engineer, Baseball Systems


Software Engineer, Baseball Systems

Location: Citi Field – Queens, New York

Summary:

The New York Mets are seeking a full stack software engineer to join the Baseball Systems team. The ideal candidate would be an engineer with experience working in a fast-paced development environment, with strong engineering fundamentals, an eye for design, and a strong product feel. The role is in-person, based out of the Mets offices in Queens, NY. Prior experience in or knowledge of baseball is a plus but is not required.

Essential Duties & Responsibilities:

  • Collaborate with other members of the Baseball Systems team and the Data Engineering team to build full stack software serving the needs of various stakeholders across Baseball Operations
  • Handle ad-hoc requests from stakeholders in a timely manner to ensure smooth operations across the organization
  • Drive engineering excellence across the entire stack through areas like test coverage, improved types, better code re-use, and AI-assisted development workflows
  • Partner directly with Baseball Operations stakeholders to understand their workflows, identify underlying needs, and shape practical software solutions
  • Own features from problem definition and early prototyping through implementation, rollout, and iteration, balancing user needs, technical quality, and delivery speed
  • Use stakeholder feedback, observed usage, and product judgment to simplify workflows and improve the usefulness and usability of existing tools
  • Participate in an occasional on-call rotation to support critical baseball systems, with increased support responsibilities during the baseball season, including some evenings and weekends

Qualifications:
Required

  • A degree, or significant experience in, Computer Science or a related field
  • 3+ years of relevant work experience
  • Experience with component-based JavaScript frameworks, preferably React
  • Experience both consuming and creating APIs to integrate with data sources
  • Ability to rapidly ramp up domain knowledge
  • Strong product judgment and attention to detail, with experience translating ambiguous user needs into intuitive software and refining it through feedback

Nice to have

  • Experience with telemetry and monitoring suites
  • Experience working with cloud platforms
  • Knowledge of CI/CD pipeline best practices and patterns
  • A general knowledge of SQL and relational databases
  • Experience in iOS development, preferably using Swift
  • Experience using LLMs and AI-assisted development tools to build, test, and maintain software

The above information is intended to describe the general nature, type, and level of work to be performed. The information is not intended to be an exhaustive or complete list of all responsibilities, duties, and skills required for this position. Nothing in this job description restricts management’s right to assign or reassign duties and responsibilities to this job at any time. The individual selected may perform other related duties as assigned or requested.

The New York Mets value the unique qualities individuals with various backgrounds and experiences can offer the organization. Our continued success depends heavily on the quality of our workforce. The Organization is committed to providing employees with the opportunity to develop to their fullest potential.

Salary Range: $120,000 – $160,000

For technical reasons, we strongly advise to not use an .edu email address when applying. Thank you very much.

To Apply
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the New York Mets.


Effectively Wild Episode 2541: Division Series Theories

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about a few days’ worth of Division Series action, including three series outcomes. Among other topics, they discuss clutchness, low scoring, scant starting pitching, paternity timing, pant tightness, fan interference, Yankees-fan frustration, postgame-panelist star power, Championship Series sympathy points, and MLB’s experiment in restricting outfielder positioning.

Audio intro: Moon Hound, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Kite Person, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to postseason bracket
Link to carbon copy wiki
Link to Miller quote
Link to Miller usage article
Link to Lewis leave
Link to Vesia video
Link to playoff offense
Link to Ben on bullpenning
Link to Sam on bullpenning
Link to Dave on bullpenning
Link to SP% sheet
Link to Manny non-homers
Link to Hernández fun fact
Link to Hernández ADHD clip
Link to Paine on Yoshi/Hernández
Link to “acromioclavicular”
Link to “debridement”
Link to Apstein on Verducci
Link to Verducci author archive
Link to fan interference play
Link to fan ejection
Link to Latin phrase
Link to “clean hands” wiki
Link to Yankees offense stat
Link to Baumann post
Link to Boone’s record
Link to 2026 Yankees coaches
Link to Pedro tweet
Link to Atlanta RISP stat
Link to Machado/Verlander clip
Link to Contreras benching
Link to Ben on banning the shift
Link to Ben on pitcher limits
Link to Ben on foul lines
Link to EW episode on foul lines
Link to Eric’s OF report
Link to BA on OF positioning
Link to 2024 OF report
Link to EW Episode 2174
Link to Russell on OF defense
Link to Rob on playing deeper
Link to Rob on OF defense
Link to 1907 Unglaub arc article
Link to Bayesian umps article
Link to Sam on autostrikes 1
Link to Sam on autostrikes 2
Link to EW Episode 2097
Link to EW Episode 2532
Link to 2024 count splits
Link to 2025 count splits
Link to 2026 count splits

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01:43:55

Guardians Erupt for Nine Runs Again, Hang on in Jittery Finish

Matt Marton-Imagn Images

For four games, pitching chaos helped the South Siders reign. Armed with only one starter in his circle of trust, White Sox manager Will Venable leaned on his band of mostly young, mostly hard-throwing relievers. Who, and for how long, was dictated by circumstance. It worked early, as Chicago swept through Houston in the Wild Card Series and jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the ALDS against the Guardians. Venable pressed all the right buttons — the staff allowed just nine runs across those first four games — and deserves a ton of credit for getting a dozen pitchers to embrace such a novel strategy on the fly.

All along, we’ve been waiting for the other shoe to drop. How long can the White Sox get away with throwing Grant Taylor multiple frames every outing? Will Hagen Smith finally pay for walking a batter per inning? What happens if Chicago needs an actual starter to eat a couple of innings?

The first cracks in the dam appeared Wednesday, when Chicago walked 10 and the Guardians exploded for nine runs. Water trickled through in the early innings of Thursday’s Game 4, too, and then burst through all at once as Cleveland, again facing elimination, defeated the White Sox, 9-5, to force a do-or-die Game 5 on Saturday. Read the rest of this entry »


Members-Only Game Thread: ALDS – Guardians at White Sox – Oct 8, 2026

Welcome to our Open Game Thread for the ALDS game today. Chat with fellow readers as we watch the Guardians play the White Sox! Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual game chats, your messages will be posted immediately.

Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this is a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts. We might even have some FanGraphs Staff drop in and join the fun. Please be courteous to your fellow Members, or you may find your chat privileges revoked.

Moves set in Chicago: The Man with the Golden Arm is interesting and worth watching. It is not as daring as the book. But Sinatra as a not especially likable character is very surprising casting that works pretty well in the end.

Hey everyone! We had some exciting games yesterday. Specifically the Yankees fan interference. I’m hoping this is almost as entertaining.

Can't think of any non-baseball movies set in Cleveland right now, though I'm sure there are some I'm not thinking of.

A Christmas Story?

Guess that was filmed there not set there.

Is that the one with their air rifle–"you'll shoot your eye out"?

Yup! You can’t miss it if you turn on the TV on Christmas.

Abe Froman

i don't see a lot of movies. i tried to go to movie nights but i kept getting spooked and overstimulated. shame, because they're a really fantastic artform

the word that comes to mind is "Gesamtkunstwerk"

I’d prefer to watch movie at home. Watch the NFL at home. Baseball is better in person. Postseason baseball is something else

Hi everyone!

For Chicago, my no. 1 is The Fugitive

Draft Day is set in Cleveland!

Kyle Teel, nooooooo!

2.2 inches is terrible

Doesn't Howard the Duck take place in Cleveland?

It does! I barely watched that. Can’t believe it’s a Marvel property.

I’d think everyone would be on point with ABS. Maybe all that pressure.

I just posted about this on Bluesky. But when I reported on the different strategies teams and players were using when deciding whether to challenge, the White Sox told me their strategy was to be more aggressive with them rather than waiting for a moment that might never come.

The challenge to Lowe aligned with that strategy, in that it made sense from a leverage perspective, especially in the playoffs when scoring first is so important. The problem was that pitch was nowhere near the zone.

I still remember when the Dodgers made Vargas go to the plate during spring training to get a feel for things when he was hurt and couldn't swing the bat in spring training, and Grienke just f'd with him by throwing eephus pitches and laughing. I miss Grienke.

Here's the link to that story, from June: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/to-challenge-or-not-to-challenge…

I can understand that strategy but continue to be stunned at some of the challenges. It makes sense to only use them in high leverage situations but, even after a full season, there seems to be no rhyme or reason in far too many instances

Was… was Jerry Reinsdorf smoking a cigar in his owner's box?

Reminder that Austin Hedges had a 100 wRC+ this season

The White Sox don't get enough crap for being one of the most historically terrible franchises

I remember people hating the Hahn years with the Star Trek 2 meme.

Sesn, I asked this last night and Davy said to ask you–have you looked into creating a live scoreboard in Fangraphs? Would it be hugely expensive? Just curious, though it would be useful since I often have FG open while watching a game anyway.

Live scoreboard? Like at the top of the site? Or just in general like our scores page? https://www.fangraphs.com/scores?date=2026-10-08

Yes, I guess I was imagining it built into the banner, like at a certain red-branded site that starts with an E. But the scores page is very cool! I should bookmark it.

We've kicked around having the scores in the header. It might be a customization feature, just so we don't force everyone to have a thicker header. I fought for about a year to get the header sized down back in 2017.

Doyle was definitely not looking for a fastball down the middle on 3-2.

Montgomery quickly pulled his hand back even though he knew it was a ball.

Teel's incorrect challenge earlier put Montgomery in a bind

Most definitely.

This has happened a few times this postseason.

The Blues Brothers is probably Chicago's favorite movie.

Does anybody else just pull up to the stats on those 90's Cleveland lineups every so often and nod approvingly?

MLB did an essay on those Cleveland teams, "The Dynasty That Almost Was".

Is Blues Brothers more loved in Chicago than Ferris Bueller's Day Off?

They’re both loved here. I don’t know if you could say one more than the other.

Something happened! Finally. What a hit!

I went to the game yesterday, and if you don’t love Seven Nation Army and the Cha Cha Slide, it is…not the place for you.

The men on MLB radio today were raving about Meidroth. That trade is going to be remembered for a long time on the South Side.

@Matt, I could probably use a new kneecap too.

The fan wearing the gaudy M&Ms bomber jacket and a giant, novelty-sized cap is a vibe I'm strangely jealous of.

I don't know how any catcher can make that play.

Some command issues in this game.

I kind of hoped that was going to go out and just clear the bases.

This is a good challenge.

Home Alone needs a shoutout for Chicago-set movies. Every couple years that's a holiday re-watch.

Can't believe this didn't cross my mind until now.

There are good fastballs and good sliders but the best pitch a pitcher has is the atom ball.

similar-sounding but unrelated: the demon core slider, which creates a little supercriticality event when the bat meets the ball. you may give up a nuke but the batter won't feel so good the next day

Good idea to actually get a hit

M&M jacket man has been at every game for many years.

Is this like Marlins Man but not at all?

Re: live scores in the header – this might make some people avoid your site sometimes, if they have DVR'd their game and don't want it ruined. If people want live scores they know how to find it

The best pitches are the ones from NES Baseball Simulator 1.000 that nobody can throw…yet

That game came out just as I was developing serious baseball fandom as a 9 year old. The number of hours I was allowed to play it is shocking in hindsight. That was straight up bad parenting, tbh.

it's a shame it happened before the advent of mainstream esports too.

Maybe a clicky option?

The Sting was mostly in Chicago

Chicago suburbs classics: Home alone, Sixteen Candles, Uncle Buck, some of FBDO.

Pretty in Pink , Breakfast Club

National Lampoons Christmas Vacation

They really don't make Midwest movies (or TV) like they used to.

i'm supposed to be watching a movie for class but i nearly had a panic attack so i'm calming down by checking baseball scores

unfortunately, i doubt The Hurt Locker (2008) is a midwest film

To me, a real Chicago movie has to have an L scene. The one in Blues Brothers is perfect. Fugitive also.

A new version of it would be awesome

Two weeks ago I watched Snow White with my 4 year old great-grand daughter sitting on my lap, Now that was a great movie experience. I am getting to visit her and her 2 year old sister again on Saturday

OH geez

Oh, Fedde's OK

From the reaction, I thought he had gotten it square in the face

It was funny, he watched the liner go past him into center, but then opened his glove to see if it might have also ended up there somehow.

Jose – Jose -Jose – Jose. !!!!!!

Turns out homers are good

I hope Keaton is watching and happy.

José is AMPED!

I was heartbroken back when he was coming up and found out his name wasn't pronounced Bibby

You mean Bibberty?

I'm too busy trying to replace our Meidroth/sistene chapel picture with Jose Ramirez

Do people not mind all these seven-pitcher games? I’m not a fan aesthetically.

I was looking through our articles from 10 years ago, because I know we advocated this idea more or less. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-al-wild-card-game-should-be-…

A little be careful what you wish for.

A little it becomes uncool once everyone does. Defensive shifts were the same way. Once everyone did it. It wasn't a competitive edge. It was just lame.

It'll be funny if the White Sox end up scoring 10 and none of them via hit

chase meidroth's name sounds like a very rude imperative

probably uttered by bart simpson or similar

joey bart simpson. is this anything.

d'oh. chandler was also right there.

Sabrowski games drive me nuts, because I have a reflexive reaction to every time his name is said because it's a common way people mispronounce my last name if they don't really read the order of the letters right

There is nothing that I find more useless than the 1st base penalty. There are two plays a 1st baseman has to do that no other fielder has to make. Scooping and avoiding the runner on the throw to 2nd. Murakami has surprised me with his deft fielding .

This game rules!

Yesterday I complained to Sean that I couldn't find a "neither" button when asked who I wanted to win between the Rays and the other team. Today it is a "both" button that is needed because I will be rooting for whichever team wins this series when they meet the Rays

I'm going to start just putting in teams that aren't playing in the game.

Good challenge by Kwan!

Used at the proper time.

This game is insane. I have lost track of the number of lead changes. Though some of that is I am not sure I know how to define a lead change. Does tying count? But does that mean tying and then going ahead counts as two? Hmm. (Maybe there won't be any more, though–this game is getting out of hand as I'm typing this.)

Yeah, that slipped away quickly.

Just made a poll for this!

I run the bathroom and hell breaks out

Unsurprisingly, the White Sox have run out of pitching.

Yes, the game feels wild. I told my wife "There's just so many hits!" which is dumb because it's a baseball game and hitting baseballs is kind of the thing they do. And Chicago doesn't even have that many hits! It just feels like there's so much happening on the bases. I'm know this easy easy to quantify, but I prefer "total base vibes" and the vibes are large

We need to add TBV to the leaderboards.

There's been 4 lead changes. One each inning that a team scored. I'd say tying doesn't count, but it doesn't matter, because it was never tied after the inning finished.

I think DeLauter is out

I called him out and did my little hand signal at my TV.

Thanks everybody. There have been a couple of late nights here on the east coast and this one is ovah so I will be heading off. Can't wait for Saturday night. Grandma and Great grandpa will be back from the family visit just about in time for the start.

I just went 1-1 in my kickball doubleheader, pitched very well in the second game, and I’m here and ready to party

10.242

3333333333333333333-6+

0

0

ack

Hello to Dan’s cat

Yeah, that was Justinian

The spam filter caught the repeated messages.

I thought maybe you were loading ZiPS data into the chat.

Justinian is good at Live Game Thread.

Do we have some analysis of RPs being overexposed in playoff series? I'm sure it's been done plenty of times but the Grant Taylor of it all this series seems like a fascinating case study

This is hard to watch….can't see the Sox recovering in Game 5 in Cleveland.

Bet ya didn't see them making the playoffs either

I've thought about looking to it, but I've never been able to pin down a good methodology

If Liberty Mutual really wants my business, they'll run a spoof ad of the Sydney Sweeny "sports" ad but with the himbo dude they have

But all the balls the himbo holds up is Bibberty

Haha amazing

There's also this article from SABR's Baseball Research Journal.
https://sabr.org/journal/article/balancing-starter-and-bullp…

Also, hello everybody.

Whats the scuttlebutt on how much the White Sox will be willing to spend moving forward now that the competitive window is open? Dark horse on Skubs?

Maybe if the Catholic Church is pitching in funds.

I don't have any intel, but I'm inclined to agree with David CHW.
(I'm choosing to believe that the team you root for is part of your name.)

So basically get the Vatican to sell off some of their art collection and see what they can get. Is Jeffrey Loria still around? Whats the surplus value of a Raphael painting?

You have to differentiate in the sea of Davids

There have to be some players in MLB who would sign a below-market deal if personally asked to do so by the Pope. I'm guessing quite a few.

I have lived all over America and never met anyone with an accent like the people in George and Mandy's First Marriage

If Grant Taylor just got the overwork penalty, Cade Smith may be due for his in game 5

Vogt certainly does not deserve big points for how he's deployed his guys most of this series. Back to back days in effective mop-up for Smith.

This is a crazy pitching decision

Cool

Man I love baseball

I blame Gavin Williams coming in and ruining game 5 due to Cade Smith pitching yesterday with a 6 run lead.

So now Smith is likely burned for game 5? Wild…

So give them more looks at your closer, exhaust your closer, have your do or die game starter use bullets 2 days before said game. That's the strategy

This pitcher usage has all felt so extreme panic button from Cleveland

Is Matt Festa hurt? He should have pitched the 9th yesterday and now today.

Festa must have kicked Vogt's dog or something

late to the game, but if the white sox come back i'll eat one (1) walking taco

Managering.

Pulled this chat up to complain about this bullpen management but looks like y'all have that covered

I think this is great. Pitchers should pitch!!!

Benintendi was just hopeless there.

Incredible curves. These guys can pitch more pitches and more often than they do, so let's see it. Go White Sox though

I understand you NEED to win tonight to survive, but you also NEED to win the next game to survive. I just can't believe 1 inning in a 4 run lead is better now than getting 5 innings the next game in another must win game.

Whatever happens here they should absolutely start him game 5. Ligaments are replaceable but flags fly forever

This is beautiful

It's not just a matter of injury risk, though – it's a matter of effectiveness in an elimination game.

These curveballs look pretty effective to me

Today, yeah…

Where's Emmanuel Clase when you need him?

House arrest? I think?

I was mad last night about Cade Smith in the 9th, and now I'm really mad. Also, I didn't love Smith in the 8th with a 4 run lead, but it's defensible.

They get a day off they'll be fine

Both these dudes are 27 years old, peak physical condition

Thanks everyone! Looks like we got another one of these on Saturday!


Fall Instructional League Notes: Royals, Giants, Padres

Taylor Rabe Photo: Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

I just finished an extended trip to watch instructs and the Arizona Fall League, and I’ve got enough in the notebook for a few posts. We’ll start with some of the looks I got at Royals, Giants, and Padres prospects on the backfields and, in a few cases, during the AFL as well. Let’s hop to it.

Kansas City Royals

Angeibel Gomez, OF

We’ll start with the guy people will ask about first. Gomez is a tapered 6-foot-2. While he isn’t a freaky athlete in the Elly De La Cruz mold, he’s limber and has a fast bat for a kid his age. Facing some of the best stuff of his life, his feel for hitting stood out. Gomez is athletic in the box, and he was able to fight off above-average velo on the hands, turn around 97 above the belt, and flatten the bat and hit a line drive on a hard fastball up, all while holding his own versus spin. He fouled off a couple tough sliders and took one just beneath the zone. He wasn’t perfect — he expanded the zone a few times and chased a curve in the dirt — but it was a really impressive showing in context.

Where does this go from here? To my eye, Gomez doesn’t look like an early-mature guy, but he also isn’t someone who screams “physical projection” in the way that, say, Sebastian Walcott did at his age. Gomez already has average measurable power, and while there’s room for him to grow into more, my projection leans closer to “comfortably plus” than “80.” Read the rest of this entry »


Everyone Unclench: Brewers Beat Padres in NLDS Game 4, Set for Rematch With Dodgers

Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

At no point during the National League Division Series between the Brewers and the Padres did either team lead by more than two runs. The total runs scored in a game never exceeded seven. But neither fact should in any way imply that the series was a no-offense snoozefest.

All four games produced a disproportionate number of baserunners given the actual number of runs allowed, at least when compared to regular-season averages. During the 2026 season, the league averaged nine runs per game on around 24 total baserunners. The Brewers and Padres likewise averaged 24 baserunners per game, despite logging combined run totals between four and seven. Close games and that much traffic on the basepaths made this series a real booty-hole-clenching experience for fans of both teams, as well as the empathetic neutral observers. By the time the fans watching Game 4 could finally unclench, the Brewers had defeated the Padres, 3-1, to advance to the NLCS against the Dodgers.

Though both teams named a traditional starter for Wednesday’s Game 4, neither Walker Buehler for the Padres nor Robert Gasser for the Brewers was expected to pitch particularly deep in this game. Buehler was healthy enough to make 32 starts this season for the first time since 2021, but he wasn’t able to match his innings total (207 2/3 IP) or replicate the 60 ERA- he posted that year. Instead, he was a slightly below-average starter, with an ERA- of 115 over 153 2/3 innings. He also missed the first two games of the NLDS on paternity leave, which likely interrupted his typical throwing schedule, and any departure from routine has the potential to leave a pitcher feeling out of rhythm. Buehler wound up going three innings, allowing one run on a pair of consecutive singles from Sal Frelick and Garrett Mitchell. His command looked shaky from the jump and alternated between non-competitive pitches outside the zone and offerings that caught way too much of the plate.

For his part, Gasser covered four innings, and the only real blemish on his evening was a solo shot hit by Fernando Tatis Jr. to lead off the third. After spending the first half of 2026 on the Triple-A shuttle, Gasser was able to stick in the majors from July 11 onward, posting a 93 ERA- over 109 1/3 innings. A lefty with a low arm slot, he gave the Brewers the option to throw a slightly different look at the Padres than what they’d seen during the first three games of the series. He relied heavily on his sinker, using it to set up his changeup and sweeper. Because of how the pitches interacted with one another, he locked up hitters for 10 called strikes on his sinker, while getting hitters to chase his changeup and generate weak contact on his sweeper.

But with the starters out relatively early and the score knotted at one through four innings, the game would ultimately be decided by the pitchers entering from the bullpen. Both teams had used almost their entire pitching staff extensively over the first three games, making the hitters more familiar with their opponents on the mound than new dads Buehler and Mason Miller are with their newborn children. (Miller missed Game 3 for the birth of his first child.) Read the rest of this entry »