Author Archive: Ben Clemens

Most of the time, life isn’t a storybook. The problem in Act One isn’t tied up with a bow in Act Three. Yesterday’s villain doesn’t always become today’s hero; in fact, they frequently stay today’s villain. But the baseball gods must have been hankering for a redemption arc Saturday night. Cooper Pratt was the scapegoat for an early Tampa Bay rally in Game 2, and then the hero for a late Milwaukee response, as the Brewers persevered for a 5-4 victory that staked them to a 2-0 lead in the World Series.

Before the raucous Milwaukee fans had even settled into their seats, Pratt got an easy chance to open the game, a weak grounder off the bat of the lead-footed Yandy Díaz. But Pratt played himself into trouble by waiting too long to commit. He got to the ball late, rushed his throw, and chucked it into the dugout on a hop. Just like that, the pressure was on, and the Brewers were down – down by a shocking four runs, in fact. After consecutive run-scoring singles, Liam Hicks tattooed a Logan Henderson cutter right down Wisconsin Ave for a two-run bomb:

All October, that kind of lead had been more than Drew Rasmussen has needed. Tampa Bay’s ace has been automatic all month, the best pitcher in the playoffs hands down. But he was out of sorts on Saturday, and the Rays defense was just as discombobulated. With two on and one out in the first, Jonathan Aranda tracked a foul ball to the netting, but he couldn’t squeeze it into his glove. Given a second chance at life, William Contreras hit what looked like an inning-ending double-play ball – but Richie Palacios was charging toward second base to cover a potential steal, and he couldn’t change directions in time to get a glove on it. Garrett Mitchell tacked on with a two-out single that cut the deficit to two and brought Pratt to the plate. But Pratt’s redemption was not forthcoming. He struck out on three pitches, putting an unceremonious stop to the rally.

Henderson and Rasmussen were both uneven today. They struggled to miss bats, and thus to end at-bats. Henderson needed 64 pitches to get through the first three innings, and Brewers manager Pat Murphy didn’t need to see anything further. He turned to his bullpen for the last six innings of work, something he’s been unafraid of all year. Rays skipper Kevin Cash has been more patient with his starters this fall, but Rasmussen couldn’t hold his form. He briefly got into a groove, retiring six straight Brewers, but he couldn’t keep it going. Pratt, of all people, broke the streak. He worked a one-out walk in the bottom of the fourth inning, kicking off a bottom-of-the-lineup rally. Sal Frelick followed with a line drive single. And then the Rays continued their shocking streak of defensive lapses. David Hamilton hit a weak grounder to first, and chaos ensued:

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If you’ve watched a postseason game in the last decade, you’ve heard the theory. Honestly, if you’ve watched a postseason game in the last decade, you’ve probably thought of the theory yourself. When a team eschews a regular starter and instead uses a string of relievers, surely one of those relievers is bound to be a little bit off. There are just so many of them. What, they’re all going to have it? C’mon, man. Be reasonable. And what happens as a result? Well, that reliever is going to give up a bunch of runs. You know, like pitchers do when they don’t have it. Obvious!

Hello, and welcome to another edition of Mathemadage. This time, we’re hot on the trail of what I like to call the Inevitable Reliever Blowup Theory. There isn’t one specific adage to point to here, but I’ve always wondered about this effect myself, and last week Other Ben (Lindbergh) forwarded me this tweet:

I hear this every bullpen game that the risk is law of averages says one of the relievers wont have it.

I have not seen any actual study anyone has done about this. Seems like it is just passed around as conventional wisdom.

— JJ Cooper (@jjcoop36) October 3, 2026

That was a good enough excuse for me to dig in – like I said, I’ve had this on my mind for a while, and the playoffs are the perfect time for a deep dive. But before I started cracking open my spreadsheets and coding agents, I did a literature review, because I knew I couldn’t be the first person to have investigated this. Back in 2015, Henry Druschel found that starters had more “disaster” outings than relievers, though he didn’t delve into the stacking aspect of using multiple relievers in a single game. I also found former colleague Kevin Goldstein’s investigation into the subject, which focused on the Rays’ ability to avoid reliever blowups. But those didn’t settle the debate for me, so I pressed on. Read the rest of this entry »

Tomorrow night, the Milwaukee Brewers and the Tampa Bay Rays will kick off the 2026 World Series. They’ll both deploy unhittable aces to open the series, and they’ll both back them with a squad made up of speedsters, platoonable hitters, a young superstar, and relievers as far as the eye can see. To a first approximation, these teams might as well be a mirror image of each other. They’re small-budget operations that rely heavily on pitching, speed, and defense. They put the ball in play. They wreak havoc on the basepaths. They play indoors – at least some of the time, in Milwaukee’s case. But while the Rays and Brewers are superficially similar, key differences will have a lot to say about how this series turns out. So let’s take a look at where the equivalence ends, and how each team will try to use that to their advantage.

Pair of Aces

The Brewers and Rays each have an obvious leader in their respective rotations. Jacob Misiorowski and Drew Rasmussen are two of the best pitchers in baseball, and they’re both having career years. Misiorowski is a shoo-in for the National League Cy Young, and while Rasmussen probably won’t win the American League version, he just put up his sixth (!) straight season with a sub-3.00 ERA, posted over a career-high 172 innings. He’s found another gear in the playoffs — three starts, 21 innings pitched, and just three runs allowed. The Miz hasn’t looked quite so steady – two starts, 8 1/3 innings, three runs – but his 1.80 ERA and 2.17 FIP in the regular season were downright ludicrous. Read the rest of this entry »

Monday, I published the first half of my ballot for this year’s Fielding Bible Awards, which will be announced at 3 PM ET tomorrow. Today, I’m going to cover my votes for the three outfield positions and pitcher, as well as the best multi-positional defenders, defensive player of the year, and defensive team of the year. Update: the winners have been announced. Winners are denoted by asterisks below.

If you’re curious about the methodology I used to help guide my voting, you can read about it in Monday’s article, but here’s a quick refresher: I used a weighted blend of DRS, FRV, and DRP (the three flagship public defensive metrics), with the weights based on how well each metric did on reliability and consistency. That gave me an initial rough order at each position. From there, I used my own insights gleaned from both statistical and video deep dives on individual players, as well as the copious amounts of baseball I watched this year, to assemble my final rankings. I deferred to the defensive metrics when the gaps were big, but for close calls, I leaned heavily on my own judgment.

That’s a fair number of words, and there will be a lot more as I go through each of these positions, so let’s get right to it, starting with left field.

Left Field
1. Cody Bellinger*
2. Chandler Simpson
3. Jackson Chourio
4. Ian Happ
5. Wyatt Langford

Last year, Bellinger played all over the outfield. This year, he mostly played in left, and he was pretty spectacular. He’s one of the best outfield defenders in the sport, and now that he’s playing full-time at a relatively weak position, he stood out from the pack here. He does it all: great anticipation and route-running, good speed, and a terrific throwing arm. With Steven Kwan now in center, Bellinger is the class of the position, and I didn’t seriously consider anyone else for my first place vote. Read the rest of this entry »

After a dominant run through the American League East this year, the Tampa Bay Rays have punched their ticket to the World Series. Down 2-1 in the ALCS, they reeled off two straight wins in Cleveland over the weekend to take a 3-2 lead back home. And with a chance to put the series away, following a wild weekend of rain, rescheduling, and bullpen games as far as the eye could see, the Rays rose to the occasion, jumping all over the Guardians early and tacking on late to cruise to a 7-3 Game 6 win on Monday night. It was a comprehensive victory for the top seed in the American League, and it showed off their ability to do whatever is needed to win, whether it’s one-upping the opposition at their own game or putting a contest to bed with late-inning power.

Cleveland is a club that needs to make the most out of every opportunity to outscore its opponents. The team’s much-ballyhooed “Guards Ball” style depends a lot on a dominant pitching staff and a little on turning balls in play into baserunners, pressure, and eventually runs. But time and again on Monday, the Rays were the Guardians’ match when it came to the small plays that can flip the game – and they showed off an extra gear when push came to shove. Time and time again, they turned the Guardians away in big moments and extended the lead when they got their own chances.

One sequence was emblematic of the night: In the top of the fourth inning, the Guardians staged an all-too-rare rally against Freddy Peralta. Jo Adell led off the inning with a roped line drive double. Nathaniel Lowe battled back from 0-2 to draw a walk. After a fly out, Patrick Bailey came up and chopped a grounder over Peralta’s head. It was the kind of ball that could rattle around and lead to chaos. But Taylor Walls was having absolutely none of it. He rampaged across second, waved Richie Palacios out of the way, and snared the ball at a full sprint, headed directly toward Lowe, who panicked and slammed on the brakes, but to no avail. Walls ran him down, brushed a tag as Lowe fell out of the basepath, and fired to first to complete a double play. What might have been a big inning instead ended without a run scoring. Read the rest of this entry »

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For the third consecutive year, I voted for the Fielding Bible Awards, Sports Info Solutions’ annual recognition of the best defenders in major league baseball. They’re a Gold Glove equivalent for the majors as a whole, created by SIS and John Dewan in 2006. A panel of video scouts and baseball experts vote for five players at each spot; there are also awards for the best multi-position defender, the defensive player of the year, and the defensive team of the year. The awards will be released this Thursday, October 22, and this article will be updated to note the winners once they’re announced. Update: the winners have been announced, and are denoted by asterisks below.

Voting for any award is a prestigious honor, and voting on this panel has great personal import to me. Over the years, the panelists have included basically every writer who got me into baseball statistics when I was younger. Bill James, Peter Gammons, the founder of Strat-o-Matic – you get the idea. It’s a group I’m honored to be a part of, and I take my voting responsibilities very seriously. To that end, I spent some time this year updating my previous voting methods. Let me walk you through it.

Earlier this year, MLB Senior Data Architect Tom Tango did some work on blending multiple defensive systems together. I had actually landed on a similar method after discussing my inaugural ballot with Tom two years ago, but there’s never a bad time for a refresh. I started with Tom’s approach, added in Baseball Prospectus’ DRP as an additional number, and created blends for each position group based on how well each metric tracked itself year-to-year, as well as how well it predicted other metrics from one year to the next. Of note, I moved around my infield weights a bit, increasing the importance of DRS; it has narrowly been the best metric in the post-shift-ban world, a change in defensive rules meaningful enough for me to strongly prefer sampling from it for my initial rankings. Read the rest of this entry »

If you’re searching for a metaphor for how differently the 2026 NLCS has gone than last year’s version, look no further than Blake Snell. In 2025, the two-time Cy Young winner humbled Milwaukee in the series opener, allowing one hit over eight strong innings, a prelude to the drubbing the Dodgers put on the Brewers in a sweep. This year, Snell got the start in Game 3, attempting to keep his team in the series after two Milwaukee victories, but the Brewers proved far more formidable this time around. Last year’s series was all about dominant Los Angeles pitching. The current edition has been about back-and-forth games and a resilient Milwaukee offense, and Wednesday’s contest — which the Brewers ultimately won 6-2 to pull within one win of their first World Series appearance since 1982 — delivered on both counts.

In last year’s NLCS start, Snell faced the minimum, erasing the only Brewers baserunner with a double play. This time, his brush with perfection lasted all of one pitch. Snell eased a fastball down the middle to Jackson Chourio to start things off, and Chourio tattooed it, a line drive missile that screamed out to right field, landing in the Dodger Stadium seats before many of the fans did. (This being Los Angeles just after 5 PM local time, only about a quarter of the spectators had arrived.) Snell recovered to retire the next three batters in order, but the tone was set: This iteration of the Brewers wasn’t going to go meekly into the L.A. night.

Snell has been spectacular when available since joining the Dodgers, and he had it all working in the early innings of Game 3. His curveball fizzed with menace, he located his changeup near perfectly, and playoff adrenaline had him up a few ticks on his fastball, which turned an already-good pitch into a monster. He used the curveball to clip the bottom of the zone and the fastball to bully the top of it, a combination that Milwaukee hitters had few answers for over his first six innings of work.

Snell’s counterpart, Robert Gasser, didn’t have the same dominant stuff, but he too gave the opposing lineup fits. He managed as many strikeouts in his five innings of work as Snell recorded in the first inning. He let the leadoff runner reach in three of those five innings. The Dodgers racked up a pile of loud contact; when Gasser departed, seven of the eight hardest-hit balls of the game had come against him. Read the rest of this entry »

Every October, FanGraphs grades each playoff manager. We focus on their in-game decisions, because a lot of the most important parts of the job – things like keeping players ready to go and making sure relievers understand their role so they know when they might be deployed – aren’t always visible to us from the outside looking in. A lot of what managers do never reaches the public eye, so these report cards instead key in on the remainder of their decisions, the ones that come when the lights are bright and the game is on the line.

We attempt to evaluate those decisions based on process, not results. A pitching change isn’t necessarily bad because the reliever who comes in gets shelled, or good because he gets out of a jam. That’s not to say it can’t be a bad decision – if you bring in your closer up eight, or let your worst reliever face Yordan Alvarez with the game on the line, you made the wrong call. But we’re interested in the before, in what we could expect to happen when a manager makes a pitching change or calls on a pinch-hitter. It isn’t good to completely ignore results, but it’s also bad to fixate on them, and it’s my hope that our report cards strike the right balance.

Earlier this month, Jon Becker wrote up the four managers who lost in the Wild Card round. This week, we’re adding the Division Series losers to the mix. Jon and I have already covered Craig Stammen and Aaron Boone. Next up: Will Venable and the White Sox. Read the rest of this entry »

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