The 2025 Replacement-Level Killers: Shortstop & Center Field

Here’s another two-fer covering teams struggling to get production out of a pair of important up-the-middle positions — teams with which devotees of this series may be overly familiar in this context. While still focusing on clubs that meet the loose definition of a contender (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of roughly 10%) and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far (which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season), I have also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. That may suggest that some of these teams will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because their performance is worth a look.

Guardians

If it feels like this is déjà vu all over again, you’re not wrong. This is the third straight season that Guardians shortstops have landed on the Killers list; two years ago it was due to the struggles of Amed Rosario, while last year it was because of those of Brayan Rocchio. Rocchio entered the 2024 season ranked 59th on our Top 100 Prospects list but hit just .206/.298/.316 (80 wRC+) in 442 plate appearances, and even with excellent defense (11 DRS, 4 FRV), he finished with just 1.1 WAR. He struggled even more mightily at the outset of this season, to the point that the 24-year-old switch-hitter was optioned to Triple-A Columbus on May 12.

At that point, the Guardians called upon 25-year-old Gabriel Arias, another former Top 100 prospect (no. 92 in 2022) with a good glove but significant offensive struggles at the major league level. Arias hit for just a 75 wRC+ with a 32.3% strikeout rate from 2022–24, so this year’s .231/.293/.369 (87 wRC+) slashline and 31.3% strikeout rate represent incremental improvements relative to his own track record, and he’s been more productive than Rocchio (.190/.252/.278, 50 wRC+), but that’s not saying much. What’s more, Arias has been out since late June due to a left ankle sprain suffered while sliding in an attempt to prevent a hit. Rocchio was recalled to fill his spot, and has at least shown some pop since returning, collecting six extra-base hits and slugging .486 in 13 games.

Arias is now nearing a return. It’s not yet clear which of the two young shortstops will get the starting nod once he’s healthy, but neither player is going to make anyone forget Francisco Lindor. The rumor mill isn’t exactly buzzing with creative ideas about shortstop upgrades, and it’s not as though the Pirates’ Isiah Kiner-Falefa, one of two shortstops mentioned on MLB Trade Rumors’ top trade candidates list as a possibility (the other being the Rays’ Taylor Walls, who just missed this list), is markedly better. Neither MLB.com nor The Athletic have highlighted any shortstops in their deadline previews, either. If the Guardians — who are on the outskirts of the AL Wild Card race at 46-49, with 10.5% playoff odds — are going to upgrade, president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and general manager Mike Chernoff will have to get creative. The safer assumption is that the Guardians stand pat; after all, they keep showing up on these lists for a reason.

Brewers

A shortstop in college and in the minors, Joey Ortiz shifted to third base as a rookie due to the presence of Willy Adames, and he turned in a fine campaign, totaling 3.2 WAR thanks to a 105 wRC+ and strong defense (8 FRV, 8 DRS). With Adames’ departure for the Giants in free agency, the Brewers decided to move Ortiz back to his natural position, but things haven’t gone very well. Defensively, he’s got 4 FRV but -8 DRS, the largest discrepancy between the two major metrics of any shortstop with one positive and one negative mark, though not by much (Adams has -9 DRS and 2 FRV, Xander Bogaerts -4 DRS and 6 FRV, Lindor -4 DRS and 5 FRV).

Ortiz’s bigger problem has been his offense, as he’s hit just .210/.268/.302 (62 wRC+). His chase and swing rates have both jumped by six percentage points — a pattern that suggests he’s pressing — and his walk rate has plummeted from 11% to 6.3%. His average exit velocity has dropped from 87.8 mph to 86.0 (from the 23rd percentile to the sixth), and his barrel and hard-hit rates have fallen as well. He did hit a healthy .277/.326/.422 (112 wRC+) with an 88.8-mph exit velo in June, but he has scuffled mightily since a two-homer game against the Pirates on June 24.

The Brewers, who have gone 25-12 since the start of June to trim the Cubs’ NL Central lead from 5 1/2 games to one, aren’t likely to give up on Ortiz entirely, but they may have an in-house alternative. During spring training, they considered moving Gold and Platinum Glove-winning second baseman Brice Turang back to shortstop, his primary position in the minors; a bout of shoulder fatigue related to the throwing demands of the position led them to opt for Ortiz. Spitballing here, it’s possible they could revisit that decision, which might be appealing given that the trade market at second base is a bit deeper, with names such as Luis Urías, Thairo Estrada, and even Ozzie Albies floating around. That said, it’s not as though any of them is guaranteed to provide robust offense.

An additional note: Both the Yankees and Rays just missed this list, with 0.7 WAR to date and 1.3 projected WAR for the rest of the season. I get that Yankees fans are exasperated with Anthony Volpe, who for all of the occasionally positive signs regarding his development as a hitter is batting .214/.287/.384 for an 87 wRC+, matching last year’s mark; his walk rate and quality of contact have both improved, but he’s a career high 18 points short of his .402 xSLG. Much more worrying is his decline in the field. By the metrics, he’s slipped from 10 FRV and 6 DRS to -2 FRV and 2 DRS; his WAR has regressed from 3.5 to 0.8. He’s never going to be Derek Jeter, particularly in the batting average department, but there’s no hint that the Yankees are considering replacing the 24-year-old shortstop, and it’s not as though Oswald Peraza, their other middle infield prospect of similar vintage, has panned out. As for the Rays, Ha-Seong Kim is five games into his return from offseason right shoulder surgery, giving them a much-needed upgrade on the Walls/José Caballero tandem that’s been so mediocre.

Guardians

Again, the Guardians are here for the third season in a row, mainly due to Myles Straw (2023), Tyler Freeman (2024), and now a rotating cast of center fielders, none of whom has gotten a very long look at any given time — or fared well at all. Lane Thomas, the presumptive starter as of mid-March, got the Opening Day nod, but was hit by a pitch on the right wrist on April 8. After sitting for a week, he tried to play through a bone bruise but soon landed on the injured list and missed a month. He returned for four games, but since then has hit the IL due to plantar fasciitis twice, with about four weeks of play in between. All of those miseries help excuse his .160/.246/.272 (48 wRC+) performance, but they don’t guarantee he’ll return to form once he’s activated, which could come soon after the All-Star break.

With Thomas only sporadically available, switch-hitting 23-year-old Angel Martínez has gotten the most playing time of any Guardian in center, making 47 starts there plus another 23 at second base and additionally dabbling in the outfield corners. Overall, he’s hit just .236/.260/.390 (78 wRC+) while chasing an ungodly 41.4% of pitches outside the zone and walking just 3.2% of the time. His defense in center has been somewhere between subpar and brutal (-7 DRS, -1 FRV in 414.1 innings). Nolan Jones, the team’s regular right fielder, has made 13 starts in center. He’s failed to distinguish himself in either capacity (spoiler alert: he’s in the next installment of this series), hitting just .229/.319/.330 (87 wRC+). To be fair, he’s hitting the ball harder than those results suggest; the 95-point gap between his .425 xSLG and his actual mark is tied for the majors’ ninth-largest.

In marked contrast to the shortstop situation, there should be at least a few center fielders available for trade, though with the exception of Harrison Bader, the ones mentioned by The Athletic and MLB Trade Rumors, such as Cedric Mullins, Luis Robert Jr., and Alek Thomas, have themselves struggled to produce, and each brings his own set of issues to the equation. The real prize among center fielders is Jarren Duran, but between the Red Sox’s recent surge and the fallout from the Rafael Devers trade, he may not be available.

Diamondbacks

Speaking of Alek Thomas, he’s hitting just .245/.295/.366 for an 84 wRC+ (that’s a career high) while starting 72 of the Diamondbacks’ 97 games in center. While he’s hitting the ball reasonably hard — his 90.5 mph average exit velocity places him in the 60th percentile — it’s usually on the ground, and for all of his speed (73rd percentile), he’s stolen just five bases. He walks just 5.6% of the time, and his defensive metrics are mixed (3 FRV, -3 DRS).

Tim Tawa (11 starts) and Jake McCarthy (nine starts) have taken up most of the remaining playing time in center; the former is a 26-year-old righty-swinging utilityman whose best position is first base, but the latter, a 27-year-old lefty, was a regular in the Diamondbacks’ outfield last season, hitting .285/.349/.400 (110 wRC+) with 25 steals and solid enough defense across the three positions (with 58 starts in center) to total 3.0 WAR. McCarthy doesn’t have much of a platoon split, so he began this year splitting time with the lefty-swinging Thomas, but he went just 3-for-41 with one double and four walks in 14 games before being optioned to Triple-A Reno on April 21. He returned to the majors on June 24, after Corbin Carroll landed on the injured list due to a chip fracture in his left wrist, but he hasn’t hit much since rejoining the Diamondbacks (.204/.278/.367, 79 wRC+ in 55 PA).

Fortunately, Carroll made a rapid return, even homering in Tuesday night’s All-Star Game, but Arizona is just 47-50, fourth in the NL West and with 10.4% playoff odds. With prominent pending free agents such as Zac Gallen, Josh Naylor, and Eugenio Suárez on the roster, the team may wind up selling, and their outfield depth is drawing interest, which could mean more playing time for McCarthy if either he or Thomas is traded.

Phillies

The Phillies have gotten just 0.3 WAR from all of their outfielders combined, a total that ranks 27th in the majors (the Guardians are 29th with -0.3). Somehow, center field has been the strongest of the three positions, but that’s not saying much. Neither lefty Brandon Marsh nor righty Johan Rojas has asserted himself enough to take full possession the job, which aside from Marsh’s absence due to a right hamstring strain in the second half of April has largely broken down along platoon lines. Marsh, who’s played 64 games in center, 20 in left, and two in right, has been the better hitter of the pair, batting .259/.332/.365 (95 wRC+), but his defense in center field (-10 DRS, -1 FRV) has been suspect. Rojas has hit just .230/.283/.302 (62 wRC+), though he’s augmented that with 12 steals and above-average glovework (4 FRV, 2 DRS).

Marsh is coming off back-to-back seasons with at least 3.0 WAR, and if nothing else, Rojas has some tactical value off the bench. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has to do something regarding his outfield, and one possibility is calling up Justin Crawford, a lefty-swinging 21-year-old who’s hitting .331/.407/.432 (127 wRC+) at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Crawford has 70-grade speed, but drew just a 40+ FV grade this spring given concerns regarding his swing and his reads and routes in center field. Per notes from Eric Longenhagen, he’s moved up to a 45+ FV, but his swing still doesn’t allow for any kind of impact contact, producing a 62% groundball rate (higher than any major league qualifier) and two degree average launch angle at Lehigh Valley. The Phillies’ outfield is such a hot mess that he figures to get a look somewhere, though it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the team land someone like Mullins as well.