The 2024 Replacement-Level Killers: Shortstop & Center Field

Strength up the middle is important to any contender, but with so many teams still in the hunt for a playoff spot, it’s no surprise some of them are have some weak spots. Sometimes it’s easier for a team to convince itself that the metrics aren’t fully capturing the strength of a light-hitting player’s defense if they’re playing a premium position, which seems to be the case with the shortstops and some of the center fielders in this year’s batch of Killers. On the flip side, occasionally it’s easier to justify shaky defense if there’s at least a hope of getting adequate offense. Then there are the times that guys get hurt and somebody has to stand out there in the middle pasture looking like they know what’s going on.

While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 9.5%), and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — I have also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because the team’s performance at that spot is worth a look.

Braves

After letting Dansby Swanson depart in free agency following the 2022 season, the Braves turned to Orlando Arcia, a former consensus top-10 prospect whose career nearly fell off the map in ’21 before being revived in a utility role in ’22. Arcia was surprisingly solid in 2023 (99 wRC+, 2.3 WAR) — he actually made the National League All-Star team thanks to a hot first half — but even entering his age-27 season, he didn’t inspire a ton of confidence; the Braves ranked 24th in our preseason Positional Power Rankings. Unfortunately, Arcia hasn’t even lived up to that lofty standard thus far, hitting .211/.244/.333 (57 wRC+); even with decent defense (3 DRS, 2 FRV, -0.7 UZR), his -0.1 WAR is in the red. He’s gotten particularly pull-happy, with a career-high 48.4% pull rate, but he’s popping up too often; his 26.4% Statcast under rate is seven points higher than last year.

For now, the Braves are remaining patient, focused on outfield and pitching trade targets to help overcome the losses of Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider, and content that Arcia’s defense provides enough value to justify his presence. They’re not exactly deep at the spot. Reserve infielder Zack Short has an even lower wRC+ (36) but is a better shortstop than the since-traded Luis Guillorme. If the Braves want an alternative, 21-year-old Nacho Alvarez Jr., is at Triple-A Gwinnett; he’s hit a combined .285/.389/.398 (125 wRC+) there and at Double-A Mississippi. A fifth-round 2022 pick out of Riverside Community College, Alvarez placed fifth on the team’s Top Prospects list last month with a 45-FV grade. He’s a bulky, disciplined hitter, but isn’t very powerful. Eric Longenhagen likened him to Yandy Díaz, and says he’s more likely to end up at third base because “he doesn’t have the range, athleticism, or arm strength” for shortstop. He’s also played just 73 games above High-A, and the Braves haven’t played him anywhere besides short or DH since 2022, so it’s unclear how much he can help.

Guardians

Last summer, Amed Rosario‘s decline on both sides of the ball led the Guardians to dump him on the Dodgers in exchange for the dying embers of Noah Syndergaard’s career. While they played out the string with Gabriel Arias as the regular at short, this year they’ve turned to Brayan Rocchio, a 23-year-old rookie who placed 59th on this year’s preseason Top 100 Prospects list. Rocchio’s defense has been strong, as he ranks third in both DRS and UZR (6 and 5.2, respectively), but he’s hit just .210/.305/.303 (79 wRC+) en route to 0.3 WAR. While he doesn’t hit the ball hard (84.9 mph average exit velo, 4.2% barrel rate, 22.6% hard-hit rate), he was projected to be closer to a league-average hitter based on his quality of contact.

The 24-year-old Arias has been even less productive with the bat (.222/.255/.353, 71 wRC+) while serving as a superutilityman. Lately the team has been taking a look at 27-year-old rookie Daniel Schneemann, another superutilityman, one who played six different positions in his first six major league games. Tweaks to his swing have paid off with a .236/.333/.472 (127 wRC+) line across his first 105 plate appearances. In all likelihood, manager Stephen Vogt will be left to juggle these kids in search of a productive mix, though if the Guardians wanted to swing big, they could try to trade for the Blue Jays’ Bo Bichette, who’s been similarly unproductive this year but obviously a lot more impactful in the past, and who’s signed through 2025.

Cardinals

Post-surgical problems with his right wrist have prevented Tommy Edman from playing a single game thus far, leading the Cardinals to dig into their depth chart. Victor Scott II, a 23-year-old rookie who placed 83rd on our Top 100 list, opened the season as the starter, and his 80-grade speed garnered him a lot of attention, but he was sent back to Triple-A after going just 5-for-59 — one of the worst debuts in recent history — and reminding the world once again that you can’t steal first base. Michael Siani, a 25-year-old rookie who placed 14th on the Cardinals list as a 40 FV prospect, has since done the bulk of the work while hitting .227/.263/.304 (62 wRC+) with exceptional defense; he’s second among center fielders in both FRV (10) and UZR (5.7), and fifth in DRS (7) pushing him to 1.0 WAR.

Edman’s return was additionally slowed by a right ankle sprain in late June, but he finally began a rehab assignment at Double-A Arkansas on July 9. It sounds as though he’ll platoon with the lefty-swinging Siani in center field (Siani has a 30 wRC+ in 71 PA against southpaws), and play left field or second base (where he won a Gold Glove in 2022, and where Nolan Gorman made this year’s Killers list) against righties. Though Edman is just a league average hitter, that should at least help to boost the production at one of the Cardinals’ weakest spots.

Dodgers

As the team’s 27th-ranked prospect entering his age-26 season last year, James Outman could hardly have been expected to make a 4.0-WAR contribution, and he’s come nowhere close to replicating that. Hitting just .147/.250/.266 (53 wRC+) in 124 PA through May 16 earned him a ticket back to Triple-A Oklahoma City and turned the Dodgers to Andy Pages, a 23-year-old rookie who underwent surgery to repair his torn labrum last year. In the words of Longenhagen, who added him back to the Top 100 Prospects list at no. 68 (he briefly dipped down to a 45+ FV over the winter due to injury), Pages “came back this year with a totally different body and level of athleticism… swinging with more athletic verve than ever.” He didn’t draw a walk in his first 17 games, and has just a 5.4% walk rate, but he’s hit a respectable .257/.307/.399 (101 wRC+) with eight homers in 301 PA. Defensively, some glaring mistakes have led to his -8 DRS in 61 games in center (his other metrics are around average), but he’s been better in 23 games in right, and has netted 0.9 WAR.

The lefty-swinging Outman returned from the minors on July 6 and took four of the team’s five most recent starts against righties, with Pages sliding over to right in place of Jason Heyward, whose IL placement for a bone bruise in his left knee precipitated Outman’s return. If he’s recovered his stroke, it will be that much easier for the Dodgers to focus on patching their other holes.

Pirates

The addition of Gold Glove winner Michael A. Taylor made sense as a way to shore up the Pirates’ defense, particularly given Jack Suwinski’s struggles in center field last year. But by signing in mid-March, Taylor didn’t get much of a spring training, which may help to explain his dreadful .203/.258/.279 (50 wRC+) line and career-high 35.1% strikeout rate. Even with stellar defense (8 FRV, 6 DRS, 4.7 UZR), he’s tallied only 0.3 WAR, which has been offset by Suwinski creeping back into center. Not only has the 25-year-old outfielder hit just .174/.259/.319 (61 wRC+) overall, he’s already accumulated -9 DRS, -2.9 UZR, and -1 FRV in just 319.1 innings in center; including his time in the outfield corners, he owns the majors’ lowest DRS (-19 DRS) and FRV (-8). His -1.2 WAR makes him one of six players with at least 200 PA who’s one win or more below replacement.

Just about anything the Pirates could try would be more productive than Suwinski in center, even playing Taylor every day instead of just against lefties and select righties while hoping for positive regression. A longer look at Ji Hwan Bae, a speedy second baseman/outfielder, might be worthwhile. A former 45-FV prospect who was 10th on the Pirates list last year, he struggled in the majors (66 wRC+, -0.1 UZR in 371 PA) but has hit .354/.435/.488 (144 wRC+) in 44 games at Triple-A Indianapolis this year. The top center fielders likely to be available are Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Luis Robert Jr., but it’s difficult to envision the Pirates going that big, and an intradivision deal for Cody Bellinger may be out of the question even before the complexity of his opt-outs is addressed. General manager Ben Cherington needs to find a happy medium for a team that’s at .500 at the All-Star break for the first time since 2016.

Orioles

Cedric Mullins peaked too early. He was a six-win player on a 110-loss team in 2021 but by last year had sunk to a respectable but hardly exceptional 99 wRC+ and 1.9 WAR in 116 games, missing time due to a recurrent groin strain. This year, the lefty-swinging 29-year-old’s performance has receded even further: .214/.256/.373 (77 wRC+) with 16 steals, so-so defense, and just 0.3 WAR. He’s become particularly unplayable against lefties (.147/.171/.221 in 70 PA), and as his .323 xSLG attests, he isn’t hitting the ball hard. Hitting the ball in the air more often, with career highs in fly ball rate (51.7%) and launch angle (23.7 degrees) isn’t what he should be doing given his speed and modest power.

While Jorge Mateo and Austin Hays both have a smattering of experience in the middle pasture, Colton Cowser is the top in-house alternative. The 24-year-old rookie looked “more like a corner platoon option than an every day center fielder” based on Longenhagen’s evaluation, and that may still be true. But despite his low batting average and 29.6% strikeout rate (35.4% against lefties), his .219/.306/.418 (105 wRC+) has been acceptably productive, and the small-sample defensive metrics suggest he’s fine in center. With the front office focused on beefing up the Orioles’ pitching, it would be a surprise if they added a newcomer here.

Guardians

Back in the spring, it appeared that incumbent Myles Straw was set to play regularly, but the team surprisingly decided to move on given his offensive shortcomings; he’s currently hitting .243/.326/.327 (72 WRC+) at Triple-A Columbus, which won’t exactly convince anyone he’s changed his game. Instead the team has turned to Tyler Freeman, who’s been a bit better at the plate (.217/.315/.345, 93 wRC+) and has done a decent job defensively (3 DRS, 1.9 UZR, 0 FRV).

The team has used six other players at times in center, including Arias and Schneemann, but the most intriguing is Angel Martínez, a 22-year-old rookie who placed eighth on their prospect list as a 45-FV shortstop and who has hit .316/.416/.537 (147) in 26 games at Columbus; he missed nearly six weeks due to a broken hamate in his left hand. Martínez largely played a utility role at Columbus, but had just three minor league games in center field under his belt before being recalled. Nonetheless, he’s made seven of his first 11 major league starts in center, all since July 4, and has hit .277/.382/.468 (146 wRC+) with a 14.3% walk rate through 56 PA, that despite an average exit velo of just 84.1 mph and a 31.7% hard-hit rate. He could bump Arias off the roster once right fielder Will Brennan returns from the injured list and spend the second half providing help at both positions represented here.

Diamondbacks

A left hamstring strain and a subsequent setback cost Alek Thomas three months, and caught Corbin Carroll at a bad time. The 2023 NL Rookie of the Year has hit just .212/.301/.334 (82 wRC+) with five homers; his 3.8% barrel rate is half of last year’s mark, his .339 xSLG a 102-point drop-off in that category. Already shaky enough in center that the Diamondbacks have preferred him in a corner, he’s posted subpar numbers (-6 DRS, -4.3 UZR, 1 FRV), with baserunners taking advantage of his weak arm. It’s unclear what role his surgically repaired right (non-throwing) shoulder might be playing in his struggles, but since his scare last June 29, he’s hit .242/.325/.386 (98 wRC+) in 724 PA. His legs still work; his 6.5 baserunning runs account for the majority of his 1.0 WAR.

Carroll is back in right with the return of Thomas, who managed just a 71 wRC+ and 0.3 WAR last year in 402 PA himself, far short of his projections. He’s hit just .188/.220/.354 in 16 games thus far. At the very least Jake McCarthy, who has hit .278/.365/.387 (115 wRC+) while playing mostly right field, is probably worth a longer look in center, though he’s a bit of a defensive downgrade relative to Thomas. A bigger addition would improve the Diamondbacks’ odds of returning to the World Series, with Bellinger representing a particularly intriguing option, as his Arizona roots might compel him to forgo his first opt-out and build towards a stronger platform season.