The 2023 Replacement-Level Killers: Shortstop and Third Base

Today the Killers take a turn to the left side of the infield. While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 10%), and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — this year I have incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because the team’s performance at that spot is worth a look.

As noted previously, some of these situations are more dire than others, particularly when taken in the context of the rest of a team’s roster. I don’t expect every team to go out and track down an upgrade before the August 1 deadline, and I’m less concerned with the solutions – many of which have more moving parts involved than a single trade — than the problems. Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are through Monday.

Red Sox

With Xander Bogaerts having departed in free agency, the Red Sox planned to move Trevor Story back to shortstop after he spent the 2022 season at second base, but in January, he underwent an internal brace procedure for the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, a modified version of Tommy John surgery with a shorter recovery time. Enrique Hernández spent most of the first two and a half months playing shortstop, but his struggles on both sides of the ball — a .222/.279/.320 (60 wRC+) batting line and awful defense according to the metrics (-9 RAA, -6 DRS, -4 UZR) — led to Yu Chang, David Hamilton, and Pablo Reyes getting their chances. None of it went well; in fact, the Red Sox are dead last in the majors in WAR at shortstop by more than half a win.

The good news is that Story has progressed far enough in his rehab that he just moved from Double-A Portland to Triple-A Worcester, and it’s possible that he could be back as soon as this weekend. Even if he just provides league-average offense and defense, that would be a boost. Meanwhile, on Tuesday the Red Sox traded Hernández to the Dodgers in exchange for a pair of right-handed relief prospects, Justin Hagenman and Nick Robertson. That leaves the Red Sox still having to figure out their second base situation, which landed them on the Killers list — as did their first base situation.

Guardians

In his first two seasons after being acquired from the Mets in the Francisco Lindor blockbuster, Amed Rosario did a solid job at shortstop, with last year the slightly better of his two seasons via a 103 wRC+ (.283/.312/.403) and 2.5 WAR. His offense has fallen off this year (.265/.306/.365, 85 wRC+) as his barrel rate has dropped from 4.5% to 2.9%, though it’s worth noting that where his SLG has fallen by 38 points, his xSLG has only fallen by 19 points from .396 to .377. Meanwhile, his defense has been dreadful according to the metrics, with both his -16 DRS and -12 RAA the majors’ lowest marks at any infield position.

With the 27-year-old Rosario slated to hit free agency this winter, the Guardians already have a pair of potential successors on the active roster in 23-year-old Gabriel Arias and 24-year-old Tyler Freeman, both of whom are currently serving in utility roles. Arias placed 10th on the team’s top prospects list in January as a 45 FV prospect, but he has hit just .179/.290/.300 (69 wRC+) and has struck out in 32.1% of his plate appearances. Freeman placed sixth on last year’s list as a 50 FV prospect; while he didn’t hit much last year, he’s batting .293/.349/.373 (103 wRC+) with just a 14.1% strikeout rate. Waiting in the wings — or more accurately, at Triple-A Columbus — is Brayan Rocchio, a 22-year-old who placed second on the team list and 54th on the Top 100 list. While Rosario won’t fetch as much right now in trade as he would have coming off last season, if the Guardians can find somebody to take a chance on him, they can sift through their alternatives with a good shot at improving upon what they’ve already gotten at shortstop this year.

Marlins

Save for 24 games in 2020, Jean Segura had never played third base in the majors during his career, but upon signing a two-year, $17 million deal with the Marlins this past winter, he moved into the hot corner. It hasn’t gone well. On the defensive side, he’s been rough (-8 DRS, -3 RAA, -0.7 UZR), and if anything it’s been even worse on the offensive side, as he’s hit just .220/.281/.273. Through Tuesday, his 56 wRC+ was tied with Tim Anderson for the majors’ lowest among players with at least 300 plate appearances, and his -1.1 WAR ranked as the seventh-lowest among all position players.

At the very least, the Marlins — who despite a recent eight-game losing streak entered Wednesday at 54-48, one game out of the Wild Card spot — would probably be better off turning third base duties over to utilityman Jon Berti, who has hit .292/.335/.372 (95 wRC+) while spending time at six different positions. An upgrade from outside the organization would help. They could go the rental route by trying to swing an intradivision trade with the Nationals for Jeimer Candelario, or take a chance that a trade can jump-start the White Sox’s Yoán Moncada. Another alternative would be to acquire a player with club control remaining such as the Reds’ Nick Senzel or one of the Urías brothers, the Orioles’ Ramón or the Brewers’ Luis; all of them are being crowded out of the picture on their respective teams.

Mets

Eduardo Escobar began the year as the starting third baseman, but by mid-April, he lost his job to 23-year-old rookie Brett Baty. A 2019 first-round pick, Baty entered the season at no. 23 on the Top 100 Prospects list as a 55 FV prospect with plus-plus raw power, a strong arm, and above-average defense. So far, the package hasn’t quite come together, as a weak showing in July has dropped Baty to a .236/.298/.360 line (86 wRC+). He’s striking out 26.1% of the time, and while he’s hitting the ball hard — his 90.2 mph average exit velocity is in the 67th percentile, his 45.7% hard-hit rate in the 75th — too often it’s on the ground. In that regard he’s regressed; his 52% groundball rate is in line with his other full-season rates save for last year, when he dipped to 42% thanks to a more upright stance that helped him get to fastballs up and away and unlock his raw power.

With Escobar traded to the Angels (see below), the job is still Baty’s, but the Mets might want to consider using the righty-swinging Mark Vientos as a platoon partner given the left-swinging Baty’s 40 wRC+ in 60 PA against lefties. Vientos, a 23-year-old rookie who entered the season at no. 6 on the team’s prospect list, has hit just .204/.241/.259 in 58 PA, but he’s barreled 13.2% of batted balls and has a .251 xBA and .424 xSLG.

Phillies

Didn’t we just do this? Yes, yes we did, as third base was one of the four positions where the Phillies landed on the 2022 Killers lists. This time it’s only partly Alec Bohm’s fault, as he’s started just 36 of the team’s first 101 games there, and his defense has only been sort of shaky (-6 DRS, 1.1 UZR, 1 RAA). He’s hit .279/.330/.411 (101 wRC+) overall but has produced just a 76 wRC+ in his time at third. The real culprit has been Edmundo Sosa, who has started 51 games at the position and has hit just .249/.274/.407 (80 wRC+) overall, with slightly below-average defense. Josh Harrison, who’s hit for just a 53 wRC+ overall, hasn’t added much in his nine starts here. While the Phillies have other needs — left field being a major one now that they can DH Kyle Schwarber and play Bryce Harper at first — a fix here would be welcome.

Yankees

The Josh Donaldson trade may go down as one of the least popular in recent franchise history. He was a disappointment last year, sinking from 26 homers, a 126 wRC+, and 3.0 WAR with the Twins in 2021 to 15 homers, a 97 wRC+ and 1.6 WAR in ’22 while not exactly making friends along the way. The Yankees nonetheless brought him and his $21 million annual salary back, but after playing just five games, he strained his right hamstring, then re-aggravated it while on a rehab assignment, and missed nearly two full months. Over the next six weeks, he played 28 games (though just 18 at third base), and while he hit the ball hard upon making contact (92.8 mph average exit velo, 19.7% barrel rate), he had almost nothing to show for it besides the dingers. His .142/.225/.434 line included a .076 BABIP, the lowest of any player in AL/NL history with at least 100 PA in a season. It looks as though he might hang on to that record, as last week Donaldson suffered a Grade 2-plus strain in his right calf and landed on the 60-day injured list, which could finish him for the season.

Donaldson is only partly responsible for the Yankees’ placement here, as he’s started just 23 games at third, while DJ LeMahieu has started 54. Age and injuries have caught up to the 35-year-old LeMahieu, who has hit just .233/.297/.375; his 85 wRC+ is his worst mark since 2014. He’s been hot the last few weeks (.318/.362/.477 in 47 PA since July 6), but he hasn’t had a month with a wRC+ of at least 100 since April. If the Yankees decide it’s worth pursuing a playoff spot, they’ll need to scare up an upgrade, even if it’s only a rental such as Candelario.

Twins

Jose Miranda began the season as the Twins’ third baseman, but he struggled over the first six weeks and was sent to Triple-A. Since then, nobody has stuck around third for very long, as Miranda, Royce Lewis, Kyle Farmer, and Willi Castro have all made at least 15 starts at the position, with Donovan Solano adding nine. Lewis is the only one who has provided above-average offense (.326/.354/.474, 132 wRC+), but between his recovery from surgery to repair his right ACL a second time (sigh) and a left oblique strain, he was available for only about five weeks, and now Miranda has joined him on the IL due to a right shoulder impingement.

Solano has been the best hitter of the bunch (.265/.367/.396/, 118 wRC+), but historically, he’s struggled at third base defensively, so manager Rocco Baldelli has been juggling his alternatives. With Lewis resuming baseball activities last week, odds are that the Twins will simply continue to mix and match until he returns sometime in mid-August.

Angels

The Angels hoped that Anthony Rendon could bounce back after being limited to 95 games in 2021-22 due to a variety of injuries, but he simply hasn’t been able to stay healthy. The 33-year-old third baseman has played in just 43 games, and had already made trips to the IL for a groin strain and a left wrist contusion before fouling a ball off his left shin on July 4. He hasn’t played since, and while he didn’t suffer a fracture, he was recently diagnosed with a deep bone bruise, and has been shut down for at least two more weeks. When he’s played, he’s hit just .236/.361/.318 (96 wRC+).

Even without Rendon, the injury bug has continued to bite the Angels. Gio Urshela, who covered third during Rendon’s first absence, may be done for the season due to a pelvic fracture. With Brandon Drury sidelined for the past few weeks due to a left shoulder contusion and first base enough of a mess to make the Killers list, lately Luis Rengifo and midseason acquisitions Escobar and Mike Moustakas have been bouncing around the infield, with the Moose doing most of the coverage of third in Rendon’s absence. Between his early-season stint in Colorado and his current one, he’s hit a respectable .258/.333/.447 (102 wRC+), but somewhere the Angels are going to need more infield depth and production if they plan to hold onto Shohei Ohtani in a bid to make the playoffs.