The 2023 Replacement-Level Killers: Left Field and Right Field

Today the Killers list turns the corner — or rather turns to the teams receiving less-than-acceptable production in the outfield corners. While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 10%), and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — this year I have incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because the team’s performance at that spot is worth a look.

As noted previously, some of these situations are more dire than others, particularly when taken in the context of the rest of their roster. Interestingly enough, two of the seven teams below the WAR cutoff for right field also make the list for left field: one because it’s far below, and the other because it’s right on the line. I’m listing the capsules in order of their left field rankings first while noting those two crossover teams with an asterisk. As always, I don’t expect every team here to go out and track down upgrades before the August 1 deadline, but these are teams to keep an eye upon. Unless otherwise noted, all statistics are through July 25, but team won-loss records and Playoff Odds are through July 26.

Phillies*

Congratulations to the defending NL champions, who have matched last year’s total by appearing on four Killers lists. This time around, that dubious distinction includes both DH-ready sluggers from the Phillies’ March 2022 shopping spree, left fielder Kyle Schwarber and right fielder Nick Castellanos, a pair to whom Philadelphia committed a combined $179 million. The team’s plans for limiting the defensive damage the pair can do have largely been undone by Bryce Harper’s UCL sprain and subsequent recovery from Tommy John surgery, which until recently had limited him to DH duties; he’s now experimenting at first base in the hopes that they can rearrange the outfield.

Schwarber, who led the NL with 46 homers last year, ranks fourth with 26 at this writing, but thanks to a .195 BABIP and a 29.6% strikeout rate, he’s hitting .183/.310/.427 (98 wRC+). If you think that’s unsightly, get a load of his defense, where his -18 DRS and -14 RAA are the majors’ worst measures at any position. As for Castellanos, six weeks ago it looked as though he had rebounded in resounding fashion from last year’s dismal .263/.305/.389 performance, but a subsequent slump has leveled him off to a .280/.322/.458 (109 wRC+) line. For all of his efforts to focus in the outfield, his defensive metrics are typically lousy (-8.9 UZR, -4 DRS, -3 RAA).

If Harper can cover first base in place of the injured Rhys Hoskins, manager Rob Thomson can use Schwarber at DH, but the Phillies will probably need an outfielder from outside the organization to gain much from such a move, as the likes of Jake Cave and Josh Harrison don’t offer much hope of league-average offense. The same might be true for Johan Rojas, a 22-year-old center fielder who has jumped from Double-A into the lineup since the start of the second half; he was hitting .306/.361/.484 (130 wRC+) with nine homers and 30 steals at Reading. His continued presence would bump Brandon Marsh to left, improving the team’s woeful defense considerably, but it’s more likely the Phillies go out and find a right-handed-hitting left fielder, with the Mets’ Mark Canha and Tommy Pham, the Rockies’ Randal Grichuk, and the Athletics’ Ramón Laureano representing some of the more intriguing (?) names out there.

Giants

Between missing the first 21 games of the season due to a strained oblique and then suffering a fractured right forearm that required surgery after he was hit by a pitch on June 13, Mitch Haniger has been limited to just 40 games. He hasn’t hit up to his capability when available, batting .230/.281/.372 (78 wRC+) with four homers in 160 PA. In his absence, the team has used eight other players in left field, with lefty-swinging Blake Sabol (25 starts) and righty-swinging Austin Slater (14 starts) getting the most work there; with Sabol also in the mix to catch, lefties Michael Conforto and Joc Pederson are among those who have also taken their turns.

Conforto (100 wRC+), Sabol (102), Pederson (126) and Slater (132) have all shown that they can provide at least league-average production, and all except Pederson — who was Schwarberesque afield last year — have shown themselves to be defensively capable. Thus the odds are that the Giants will mix and match their way through this situation and hope that Haniger is able to reset his season when he returns, though that won’t be until late August at the earliest. Lefty Luis González, who hit for a 95 wRC+ (.254/.323/.360) last year but who has been sidelined since the spring after undergoing surgery to repair a herniated disc, is on a rehab assignment and could figure into the mix as well.

Twins

Trevor Larnach opened the season as the Twins’ left fielder, but between a bout of pneumonia and two trips to Triple-A amid his struggles at the plate (.209/.310/.392, 95 wRC+), he’s started just 31 games there. A platoon featuring Joey Gallo against righties and Willi Castro against lefties has covered the lion’s share of the games in Larnach’s absence, but Gallo is wallowing below the Mendoza Line for the fourth straight season; not only is he hitting .175/.292/.448 (104 wRC+) while striking out 41.9% of the time, but he’s produced just a 67 wRC+ with a 50.5% strikeout rate since the start of June. Castro has hit .243/.322/.370 (95 wRC+) while splitting time between six positions (all except catcher and first base) and stealing a team-high 25 bases.

Gallo aside, the Twins have reportedly been receiving interest in their stockpile of lefty-swinging outfielders, which includes Larnach, right fielder Max Kepler, and Matt Wallner. Particularly if they’re willing to deal a player with club control years remaining (Kepler is a pending free agent), a trade could shake up the position while diversifying their roster.

Yankees*

Once upon a time in the Bronx, the Yankees had a plan to play Aaron Judge in left field, Harrison Bader in center, and Giancarlo Stanton in right on select occasions at home, reasoning that Stanton would have an easier time covering the smaller of the two outfield corners in Yankee Stadium. Silly Yankees! Injuries to all three of those players have prevented the team from deploying that alignment even once. Meanwhile, skittishness about the Competitive Balance Tax prevented general manager Brian Cashman from implementing any kind of Plan A to replace departed free agent Andrew Benintendi, so the team entered the season hoping that they could squeeze some kind of productivity out of Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Cabrera.

When that didn’t work, the Yankees turned to a cavalcade of Quad-A types fit for a 2017 top prospect list, or low rarity scores on the Immaculate Grid. Sure, Jake Bauers, Billy McKinney, Willie Calhoun, and even Franchy Cordero have had their moments, but in the end, the Yankees are on this list for both corners because they’ve gotten so little from the group. The loss of Judge to a torn ligament in his right big toe, suffered when he crashed into the outfield wall in Dodger Stadium on June 3, has exposed the decrepitude of the entire lineup; the team has hit .220/.295/.376 (86 wRC+) while averaging 3.90 runs per game since he went down, going 18-23 in that span.

The good news is that Judge — who was hitting an ungodly .291/.404/.674 (187 wRC+) — appears on track for a return on Friday, but at a minimum, the Yankees will need a right-handed bat to pair with Bauers (.218/.307/.451, 108 wRC+) or McKinney (.253/.330/.483, 122 wRC+), and that’s if you believe their small-sample performances are sustainable. Standing pat with Isiah Kiner-Falefa (.254/.314/.371, 92 wRC+) as a platoon partner probably isn’t going to cut it if this team is serious about its pursuit of its first title since 2009. Grichuck, who’s now on the Rockies, fits the bill as a righty who can mash lefties, while the Cardinals’ Dylan Carlson (a switch-hitter who’s stronger against lefties) and the Cubs’ Cody Bellinger (a lefty) have also drawn frequent mention as options.

Guardians

Oscar Gonzalez was a hero last October, but a .192/.213/.288 (32 wRC+) performance over his first 75 PA led to his being demoted to Triple-A Columbus. Will Brennan has handled most of the right field duties since then, with an assist from Gabriel Arias, but the former has hit a disappointing .261/.291/.375 (82 wRC+), the latter just .179/.290/.300 (69 wRC+).

With Monday night’s trade of Amed Rosario to the Dodgers in exchange for Noah Syndergaard, Arias is likely to be in the mix for more time at shortstop. What’s more, the team has recalled Gonzalez to fill the open roster spot, since Syndergaard will apparently continue his rehab assignment. This may be just a brief look given that Gonzalez wasn’t exactly tearing it up at Columbus, but the Guardians could use his power considering that their entire outfield has combined for just 12 home runs and a .344 slugging percentage, marks that respectively rank 30th and 29th among all teams.

Brewers

The Brewers have used seven players in right field, with Brian Anderson leading the team with 35 starts… and at the same time also leading the team with 44 starts at third base. He’s not starting anywhere these days, as he’s on the IL with lower back discomfort. Tyrone Taylor, Blake Perkins, and Raimel Tapia had spent the past month covering right field, but in that capacity, none of them has managed a batting average above .200 or a wRC+ above 51. Last week, the team DFA’d Tapia, and recalled Sal Frelick, their 2021 first-round pick, and the world hasn’t been the same since.

Frelick, who placed 68th on our Top 100 Prospects list this spring as a 50 FV prospect, debuted in spectacular fashion on July 22, making a pair of stellar catches while going 3-for-3 with a sacrifice fly that plated the decisive run. Two days later, he hit a game-tying home run, and through 18 PA, he’s hitting .417/.556/.667. For as exciting as he’s been, if he’s not playing center field, his hit-over-power skill set might not fit as well in right, production wise; it puts a lot of pressure on him to maintain a high batting average.

Mets

Starling Marte was very good in his first year with the Mets, setting a career high with a 136 wRC+ (.292/.347/.468) while homering 16 times and stealing 18 bases. Though he’s swiped 24 bags (in 28 attempts) this year, the 34-year-old right fielder’s season has otherwise been a slog. He missed time with a neck strain back in early April, landed on the IL last week due to migraines, and overall has hit a paltry .254/.308/.332 (83 wRC+). He’s had some bad luck in that the 79-point gap between his slugging percentage and his .411 is tied for the majors’ third-largest, but that doesn’t explain his lousy defense (-6 DRS, -5.4 UZR, -5 RAA).

In Marte’s absence, manager Buck Showalter has started Canha, Jeff McNeil, and DJ Stewart in right field, with Luis Guillorme and Danny Mendick playing second to cover for McNeil. With the Mets seven games under .500, Canha is drawing particularly heavy interest from other contending teams, so the Mets may need to scare up another corner outfielder to offset a trade if they hope to climb out of the 47-54 hole they’ve dug.

Orioles

The owners of the AL’s best record (62-40) have actually gotten very good work out of Anthony Santander (.259/.331/.469, 120 wRC+, 1.4 WAR), but he’s started just 59 of the team’s games in right field, adding another 31 at DH, six at first base, and one in left. For the most part, none of the eight other players who have spotted at the position have been as productive in this capacity; together they’ve combined to hit .213/.284/.307 with just two homers in 169 PA. The two who have been productive in small samples while playing right field have other gigs, namely starting left fielder Austin Hays and first baseman/designated hitter Ryan O’Hearn.

One of the players who hasn’t hit, whether in right field or another outfield position, is Colton Coswer, the fifth pick of the 2021 draft. The 23-year-old Cowser only grades out as a 45 FV prospect due to his high strikeout rates, modest power, and concerns about whether he can stick in center field; as a corner, he’s a better fit as the long half of a platoon. A part-time role could work for the O’s right now, but Cowser has hit just .122/.302/.146 through his first 53 PA and has yet to barrel a single ball. The team will have to decide whether they’re ready to bet on his talent or to call upon a more proven bat for reinforcement.

Mariners

Teoscar Hernández hit for a 129 wRC+ last year, and a 132 mark over the past three seasons, but his production has fallen off considerably. He’s batting .239/.288/.414 (95 wRC+) while striking out 31.9% of the time, his highest rate since 2019. He’s not hitting the ball as hard or pulling it as often, which might account for why his actual numbers are so far below his .252 xBA and .474 xSLG; his 60-point shortfall in the latter category is the majors’ 13th-largest.

As a pending free agent, Hernández might actually have some appeal to another team, particularly one that could use a lefty-masher. Among contenders with the lowest wRC+ against lefties from both their left and right fielders, the Brewers (.183/.248/.237, 34 wRC+), Guardians (.228/.290/.321, 67 wRC+), Giants (.209/.278/.348, 73 wRC+), and Yankees (.197/.273/.388, 79 wRC+) are on this list for one position or another. But particularly with Jarred Kelenic sidelined due to a broken left foot, the Mariners would have to scare up another alternative to offset even more meager production, as their internal alternatives (mainly Taylor Trammell and the now-injured AJ Pollock) aren’t fits.