The 2023 Replacement-Level Killers: Designated Hitter

With the trade deadline just a day away, at last we reach the end of my annual series spotlighting the weakest positions on contenders. While still focusing upon teams that meet that loose definition (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 10%), this year I have incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because the team’s performance at that spot is worth a look.

At the other positions in this series, I have used about 0.6 WAR or less thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — as my cutoff, making exceptions here and there, but for the designated hitters, I’ve lowered that to zero, both to keep the list length manageable and to account for the general spread of value. In the second full season of the universal DH, exactly half the teams in the majors have actually gotten 0.0 WAR or less from their DHs thus far, five are in the middle ground between 0.0 and 1.0, and 10 are at 1.0 or above. DHs as a group have hit .242/.321/.419 for a 102 wRC+; that last figure is up one point from last year. This year, we’re seeing a greater number teams invest more playing time in a single DH; where last year there were three players who reached the 500 plate appearance threshold as DHs, this year we’re on pace for five, and the same is true at the 400-PA threshold (on pace for nine this year, compared to seven last year) and 300-PA threshold (on pace for 15, compared to 12 last year). That said, many of the teams on this list are the ones that haven’t found that special someone to take the lion’s share of the plate appearances.

Note that all statistics here are through July 29 but team won-loss records and Playoff Odds are through July 30.

Brewers

In the wake of the trade that sent Kolten Wong to Seattle and Jesse Winker to Milwaukee, both players’ production has crashed through the floor. Wong landed on the second base Killers list, and Winker is the leading cause of the Brewers’ presence here. He’s hit just .199/.320/.247 (66 wRC+) with one homer in 197 PA, and is currently serving his second stint on the injured list, out with back spasms after missing time in May and June due to a cervical strain.

Aside from starting catcher William Contreras (117 wRC+ in 60 PA as a DH), the rotating cast of characters who have filled in haven’t done a whole lot to prop up the team’s production. The situation cries out for an upgrade, and while the freshly-acquired Carlos Santana could help against lefties, Brewers first basemen already made the Killers list as well.

Mariners

The Mariners spent April and May shuttling 11 players in and out of the DH spot, and got less than nothing for their trouble. The group combined to hit — and I use that term very loosely — .143/.226/.270 (41 wRC+), with AJ Pollock (12 wRC+ in 41 PA) doing most of the bad kind of damage and Teoscar Hernández (106 wRC+ in 36 PA) doing just about all of the good kind. In early June, the team brought up Mike Ford from Triple-A Tacoma, and while he’s hit a lopsided .236/.296/.545 while DHing regularly against righties and spotting at first base, his 130 WRC+ is second on the team overall. Lo and behold, their other part-time DHs have hit .355/.394/.516 against lefties since Ford showed up. Those performances may not last forever, but any entry into the team’s DH fray seems more likely to be as a byproduct of a trade to cover another need, with right field — where the Mariners made the Killers list — the most likely route.

Reds

During the first half of the season, the Reds used starting catcher Tyler Stephenson as their regular DH; through July 6, he had fewer starts behind the plate (35) than at DH (39). He didn’t hit in either role. Now with Joey Votto back from his shoulder injury, Christian Encarnacion-Strand up from Triple-A, and Spencer Steer scrambling for playing time at multiple positions, they have better options, and my guess is that they’ll probably simply go forward with those rather than shake things up.

Rangers

Count the Rangers among the teams that haven’t committed to any single player at DH for very long; they’ve used 10 players in the role, with Robbie Grossman making 25 appearances, and Ezequiel Duran and Mitch Garver at 19 apiece. Duran has hit for just a 94 wRC+ in 75 PA as a DH but is batting .287/.330/.490 (124 wRC+) overall while also appearing at six different positions, making him indispensable. Garver has hit for a 76 wRC+ in 73 PA as a DH but a ridiculous 182 in 54 PA as a backup catcher, and with starter Jonah Heim landing on the IL due to a left wrist tendon strain, his work behind the plate becomes of greater importance. Grossman has hit for a 119 wRC+ in 104 PA as a DH but just an 83 wRC+ in 282 PA overall, with righties utterly dominating him (.198/.273/.326, 65 wRC+) in 194 PA, so finding somebody else to at least take that chunk of his playing time should be a priority now that general manager Chris Young has addressed the team’s pitching.

Padres

The Padres took a flyer on the Matt Carpenter revival, betting $12 million over two years (including a $5.5 million player option for next season) that the 37-year-old ex-Cardinal could recover the magic that helped him club 15 homers in just 154 PA for the Yankees before fracturing his left foot with a foul ball. They also signed Nelson Cruz to a $1 million deal to serve as the short half of a platoon. Neither move has worked out. Carpenter has hit a cringeworthy .166/.296/.302 (72 wRC+), which is on par with what he did in 2021 with the Cardinals; he’s 2-for-36 with 10 walks since June 13, which, woof. Meanwhile, Cruz hit just .245/.283/.399 before drawing his release earlier this month.

As with everything about the Padres at the deadline, it will be interesting to see what they do regarding their DH spot. No matter which direction they go, the way Carpenter’s playing time has dwindled in recent weeks suggests that he’s on borrowed time when it comes to his roster spot.

Cubs

When I began this exercise on July 21, the Cubs were 46-51 and had just an 8.4% chance of the playoffs. Having stretched their winning streak to eight games before losing on Sunday, they’re up to 26.8%, and Cody Bellinger, one of the market’s most intriguing trade chips — practically every contender’s solution to an outfield or first base upgrade or an extra lefty bat — is staying put. All of which means that the Cubs could use some help. Christopher Morel (22 starts) and Trey Mancini (20) have gotten the plurality of the work at DH, with the latter, who has hit just .237/.300/.341 (75 wRC+), also bearing some of the responsibility for Killer-level production at first base. Morel, on the other hand, has hit a sizzling .281/.345/.545 (138 wRC+) while spending additional time at second base, third base, and all three outfield spots. Maybe Jed Hoyer can clone him.

Guardians

If you’re scoring at home, that’s five spots on the Killers lists for the Guardians: catcher, shortstop, center field, right field and now DH. Without looking, I believe that’s the record for a single season since I ported this series here in 2018. The Guardians signed Josh Bell to a two-year, $33 million deal with an opt-out after 2023, but so far it’s looking like they’ll be stuck with him. The switch-hitting Bell has DHed in 65 games and played first base in another 29, hitting a combined .236/.322/.389 (98 wRC+). Lineup regulars Josh Naylor and José Ramírez have done the bulk of the DH duty when Bell has played the field or sat on the bench, but it’s not like either one of them is going to leave his day job to take over this spot. Say, what’s Victor Martinez up to these days?

Mets

In light of the David Robertson and Max Scherzer trades, it’s clear the Mets are more likely to unload lefty slugger Daniel Vogelbach than they are to solidify the DH platoon they’ve rounded out with righties Mark Canha, Tommy Pham, and Mark Vientos. Vogelbach has hit just .228/.332/.374 (101 wRC+), but even that looks like treasure to some of these teams, to say nothing of the more productive Canha and Pham, both of whom have some defensive value in the outfield corners as well.

Diamondbacks

Lefty Pavin Smith and righty Lourdes Gurriel Jr. formed the backbone of Arizona’s DH arrangement into late June, but Smith hit just .190/.310/.332 (79 wRC+) before being demoted to Triple-A Reno. Gurriel has been ice cold since June began, offsetting a start so strong it propelled him onto the NL All-Star team; he’s hit just .246/.295/.446 (97 wRC+) overall while spending more time in left field (58 games) than DH (33 games). Lately, righty Evan Longoria, who just hit the IL with a back issue, has gotten into the mix, along with rookie lefty Dominic Canzone. A more substantial solution would be welcome.

Astros

Yordan Alvarez is one of the best hitters on the planet, but he just missed seven weeks due to an oblique strain. In his absence, backup catcher Yainer Diaz pulled most of the DH duty; though he’s hit for a respectable 110 wRC+ overall, his 56 wRC+ as a DH (.204/.223/.367) is the worst of any player with at least 100 PA in the role. With Alvarez back and forecast to provide more value over the remainder of the season than the bottom-ranked half-dozen of these teams combined — every DH this side of Shohei Ohtani, in fact — this shouldn’t be a big problem going forward.

Also: It took a hot weekend, with four homers in three days, for the Braves’ Marcell Ozuna to improve his offensive line (.236/.309/.479, 109 wRC+ including Sunday) far enough above replacement level to avoid this list. If the team hadn’t ditched him already for his lack of productivity in 2021-22, not to mention his suspension for violating the league’s domestic violence policy, it’s tough to imagine they’ll make a priority of upgrading now — particularly as they’re on the hook for over $25 million in remaining salary through the end of next season. The Blue Jays just missed inclusion here as well. The two principals, Brandon Belt (.243/.357/421, 119 wRC+) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.268/.341/.449, 118 wRC+), have put up similarly respectable lines while sharing DH and first base. For the latter, that’s something of an underperformance, albeit one that’s partly a result of bad batted ball luck. As I noted during the All-Star break, the gaps between Guerrero’s actual and expected batting average, slugging percentage, and wOBA on fly balls are the largest of the Statcast era.