Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, and FanGraphs lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen discuss the lows and highs of the Home Run Derby and the All-Star Game and swing-off, plus banter about beef boys, Blooper, kissing, and the timing of the All-Star break, then (1:03:40) recap the amateur draft, touching on the selection of Eli Willits first overall, first-round risers/fallers, teams that had the best drafts, the latest Holliday (Ethan), the Twins’ extremely tall pitcher Jason Reitz, Boston’s Marcus Phillips pick, and the predictability of the draft vs. international signings.

Audio intro: Tom Rhoads, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Austin Klewan, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Derby formats
Link to Derby formats piece
Link to Cal’s plunking
Link to Derby robbery
Link to one-inch difference
Link to Cal/Skubal mic’d up
Link to Schwarbombs
Link to Posnanski on the ASG
Link to Passan on the swing-off
Link to swing-off surprise report
Link to the Miz ASG story
Link to ABS piece 1
Link to ABS piece 2
Link to Scully’s Aaron call
Link to Aaron tribute
Link to Roberts sidestep
Link to beef boy story
Link to Sam on the Dumper
Link to Meg’s Blooper selfie
Link to Mr. Met video
Link to Vinnie/Cags kiss
Link to Sheehan on the ASB
Link to Olympics timing
Link to Eric’s mock
Link to Eric’s ranking
Link to Eric’s recap
Link to Bremner article
Link to Reitz Reddit post
Link to Down on the Farm study

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Here’s another two-fer covering teams struggling to get production out of a pair of important up-the-middle positions — teams with which devotees of this series may be overly familiar in this context. While still focusing on clubs that meet the loose definition of a contender (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of roughly 10%) and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far (which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season), I have also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. That may suggest that some of these teams will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because their performance is worth a look.

Guardians

If it feels like this is déjà vu all over again, you’re not wrong. This is the third straight season that Guardians shortstops have landed on the Killers list; two years ago it was due to the struggles of Amed Rosario, while last year it was because of those of Brayan Rocchio. Rocchio entered the 2024 season ranked 59th on our Top 100 Prospects list but hit just .206/.298/.316 (80 wRC+) in 442 plate appearances, and even with excellent defense (11 DRS, 4 FRV), he finished with just 1.1 WAR. He struggled even more mightily at the outset of this season, to the point that the 24-year-old switch-hitter was optioned to Triple-A Columbus on May 12. Read the rest of this entry »

James Tibbs III might best be described as a hitting rat. Drafted 13th overall last year by the San Francisco Giants out of Florida State University, and subsequently shipped to the Boston Red Sox in last month’s blockbuster Rafael Devers deal, the 22-year-old outfielder lives and breathes baseball — particularly the part that entails standing in the batter’s box. From a young age, Tibbs has doggedly worked on honing his left-handed stroke.

An Atlanta native who attended high school in nearby Marietta, Tibbs excelled collegiately, slashing .338/.462/.685 over three seasons at the ACC school, with a 28-homer junior campaign further enhancing his profile. And he’s continued to hit in pro ball. He played just 26 games after inking a contract last summer, and his results were mixed; he posted a 153 wRC+ in nine games (42 plate appearances) in A-ball, earned a promotion, then went cold in High-A. Now in his first full professional season, he’s back to doing what he does best: bashing baseballs. Tibbs put up a 132 wRC+ with a dozen home runs in High-A prior to the trade, and since joining his new organization, he has logged a 107 wRC+ over 86 plate appearances while acclimating to Double-A.

Ranked 14th in what Eric Longenhagen called “the best farm system in baseball” when our Red Sox Top Prospects list was published in late June, the promising young outfielder was assigned a 45 FV, with raw power graded as his best hitting tool. Tibbs sat down to talk hitting prior to a recent Portland Sea Dogs home game.

———

David Laurila: You were drafted one year ago. Are you the same hitter now, or has anything meaningfully changed?

James Tibbs III: “I’m pretty much the same. It’s what’s gotten me this far, and I’ve kind of tried to replicate that as much as possible. I’ve never been one to try to make changes unless it’s absolutely necessary, because I play off of feel. I’ll make adjustments based off of that feel, but I’m doing it trying to get back to my base. My base has been pretty consistent for the last… three years? Two years? Something like that.

“I feel like I cover the plate well. I feel like I can see the ball well from where I stand and how I load. I feel like I use my body well in order to get to the spots that I can’t necessarily cover. So yeah, it’s been pretty consistent for the most part.”

Laurila: How would you describe your approach at the plate? Read the rest of this entry »

When you think of Garrett Crochet, you probably think of a lanky lefty flinging filthy fastballs past flummoxed hitters. Nearly half the pitches Crochet threw last year were four-seamers. The pitch averaged 97.1 mph, and according to Statcast’s run values, it was worth 21 runs, making it the fifth-most valuable pitch in the game, trailing estimable offerings like Emmanuel Clase’s cutter and the sliders of Dylan Cease and Chris Sale. Crochet’s other pitches were worth a combined -2 runs. Although he ran a 3.58 ERA while pitching in front of a porous White Sox defense, the four-seamer led him to a 2.38 xFIP and 2.75 DRA. Both marks were the best among all starters. Crochet has kept right on rolling in 2025. He’s running a 2.23 ERA with a 2.40 FIP, and his 4.3 WAR ranks second among all pitchers. It would be easy to glance at the top line numbers and assume that Crochet is the same pitcher he was last year, just in front of a better defense. But there have been some subtle changes under the hood, and his relationship with his fastball now looks very different.

When a trade brought Crochet to Boston in December, the reasonable assumption was that he’d back off the four-seamer at least a little. Under Craig Breslow and Andrew Bailey, the Red Sox became the most fastball-averse team in the history of the game, throwing four-seamers and sinkers just 36.8% of the time in 2024. No one expected Crochet to ditch one of the game’s greatest weapons, but it stood to reason that the Red Sox might tweak his usage just a little bit in favor of his sweeper, his cutter, and his new sinker, all of which looked like excellent pitches. Read the rest of this entry »

Longtime readers of this site might remember my tremendous affection for Pittsburgh reliever David Bednar. It’s OK if you don’t; I last wrote about him in May 2023, which is so long ago the Pirates were in first place at the time. Bednar was a rock back in the day, a top-class closer for a team that frequently disappointed. But from 2021 to the end of 2023, he was terrific: ERAs in the low-to-mid-2.00s every year, with strikeout rates in the high 20s and low 30s.

That trend stopped abruptly in 2024. Again, this wasn’t front-page national news; wise fans had by this point learned to ignore any Pirate shorter than 6-foot-6. But Bednar posted a 5.77 ERA, blew a career-worst seven saves, and saw his strikeout rate plummet to 22.1%, more than 10 percentage points from where it was two years earlier.

A sad development, but not an unforeseeable one. Relief pitchers, even good ones, even reliable ones, have a shorter shelf life than most condiments. But he’s back this year; in 36 games, Bednar has a 2.53 ERA, a career-high 34.6% strikeout rate, a 6.9% walk rate (his lowest since he joined the Pirates five years ago), a 2.02 FIP, and 13 saves out of 13 opportunities. Read the rest of this entry »

Every July, FanGraphs releases our annual Trade Value Series highlighting the top 50 players in baseball, taking contract status and performance into account. For the past four years, I’ve been in charge of this exercise, with liberal amounts of help from the rest of the FanGraphs staff and some contacts on the team side. This year, I’ve got company. For the first time, FanGraphs readers will be creating their own trade value list. Read the rest of this entry »

Today we turn our attention to some chilly performances at the hot corner. While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of a contender (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of roughly 10%) and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far (which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season), I have also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. That may suggest that some of these teams will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because their performance at that spot thus far is worth a look.

Cubs

The Cubs began the season with 2023 first-round pick Matt Shaw — no. 13 on our preseason Top 100 Prospects list as a 55-FV prospect — as their starter at third base, but he struggled out of the gate, hitting just .172/.294/.241 (62 wRC+) from Opening Day through April 14 before being optioned to Triple-A Iowa. Jon Berti did the bulk of the work in his absence, with Gage Workman, Vidal Bruján, Nicky Lopez and even Justin Turner spotting there as well before Shaw was recalled on May 19. The 23-year-old rookie got hot upon returning, but struggled in June before starting July in a 1-for-27 funk; he is now batting just .198/.276/.280 (61 wRC+) with two homers, 11 steals, and 0.0 WAR. While he’s underperformed relative to his expected stats (including a .350 xSLG), his 83.3-mph average exit velocity places him in the first percentile, and his 26.8% hard-hit rate in the fifth. Notably, he rode the pine in the days leading up to the All-Star break, making one start and two late-inning appearances over the Cubs’ last five games. Manager Craig Counsell called Shaw’s absence from the lineup “just a little breather here.” Read the rest of this entry »

Hunter Goodman will represent the Colorado Rockies in tonight’s All-Star Game, and while he plays for the worst team in the majors, he is by no means a quota-filling selection. The 25-year-old catcher is slashing .277/.325/.517 with 17 home runs and a 120 wRC+ over 345 plate appearances. Moreover, his 52 RBI are the most among senior circuit backstops.

Three months before his All-Star selection, he was featured here at FanGraphs in an article titled Hunter Goodman Isn’t Choosy. When my colleague Davy Andrews penned the April 9 piece, Goodman had seen 63 pitches outside of the strike zone and swung at 33 of them, giving him a 54.1% chase rate. He also had a 66.1% overall swing rate.

As Davy wrote, “This is about as extreme as baseball gets.”

I brought up the article when the Rockies visited Fenway Park last week, and Goodman’s response was gold. Having read my colleague’s column, the young slugger replied, “That guy better not show up here.” He was kidding — the words came with a smile — after which he turned serious.

“Honestly, I was hitting pretty well at the time,” recalled Goodman, who then had a wRC+ just north of league average. “I was getting a lot of pitches to hit. But yes, I was swinging a lot. Starting the year, I was trying to be aggressive and trying to see where I was at. It’s like everything else; the more you get going, the more things start to calm down. Over the season, it’s gotten better. Being in the lineup every day has helped a lot with my timing.” Read the rest of this entry »

As the draft comes to an end, I find that even after writing a number of articles about this class, I still have more to say. So now that the tables are being folded up and the bartender is cleaning out the taps, here’s an offering of potpourri from draft season: Stray anecdotes and quotes from the combine, or bits of analysis, that never found a home in an article.

Last week, I wrote about the top of this draft being loaded with Tennessee players, and sure enough: Three Vols went off the board in the first round, with four more going between picks no. 33 and 72.

But you could argue that the real school of the draft was Corona High School of California, which had right-hander Seth Hernandez go to the Pirates sixth overall, shortstop Billy Carlson go to the White Sox at pick no. 10, and third baseman Brady Ebel go to Milwaukee at pick no. 32. (In an amusing coincidence, Carlson is committed to Tennessee, though after he went in the top 10, I doubt we’ll ever see him in Knoxville except as a tourist.) Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Davy Andrews banter about Meg’s absence, Byron Buxton, Kyle Stowers, and an Orioles/Marlins surprise, the backlash to Jacob Misiorowski’s All-Star selection, the status of the All-Star game and whether All-Star designations need to change, All-Star/Home Run Derby excitement and the merits of several unsung (or undersung) All-Stars and non-All-Stars, a hypothetical about mystery All-Stars, Shohei Ohtani’s pitching progression, and more.

Audio intro: Liz Panella, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Alex Ferrin, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Meg’s Blooper selfie
Link to Passan and Blooper
Link to Vinnie/Cags kiss
Link to Davy on PCA
Link to 5 BB ≥ 100 mph
Link to 5 hits ≥ 100 mph
Link to Miz article 1
Link to Miz article 2
Link to Miz article 3
Link to Miz article 4
Link to BP on All-Stars
Link to All-Star replacements
Link to Neil on the HRD
Link to Neil on All-Stars
Link to Davy on the Derby
Link to NHL ASG policy
Link to Chapman velos
Link to EW Episode 1
Link to listener emails database
Link to pitchers vs. PPP
Link to pitchers vs. non-PPP
Link to rim height story 1
Link to rim height story 2
Link to rim height story 3

 Sponsor Us on Patreon
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 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com
 Effectively Wild Subreddit
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 Apple Podcasts Feed 
 Spotify Feed
 YouTube Playlist
 Facebook Group
 Bluesky Account
 Twitter Account
 Get Our Merch!

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

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